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Why Hunt’s cuts to national insurance might not boost the Tories – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,707

    TimS said:

    Is the narrative about the UK economy wrong?

    image

    It seems to suggest the two tax measures didn't really have an effect, which is a shame but not entirely surprising because the effect should take a couple of years to filter through given investment time horizons.

    Whether we're in a boom or not rather depends on what happened in the couple of years previous to 2021. If investment shrank more than others during Covid (as seems to have been the case with GDP) then the starting point may mask a simple rebound.
    Remember dating effects - people spending on equipment in anticipation of claiming etc.

    What that shows is investment increasing over a period and appearing to level off around 125% of the previous level.
    But with the backdrop of a plunge of 19% in business investment in 2020 and a second one of 9% on the turn of 2021, just before (coincidence?) the original posted graph starts.

    https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/private-investment

    The original superdeduction was implemented to stop people holding back spending until the CT rate rise to 25%. IN that I think it succeeded. Full expensing - on paper less generous but combined with 25% CT the same value - has not noticeably impacted most large businesses' capex plans yet. I hope it will do - I am in favour of the measure although sceptical about how big an impact it will have, especially as many of the big spenders quickly run into tax losses if they use all their CAs.

    Supercharging full expensing by adding a superdeduction and making that a qualifying refundable tax credit would I think have a much bigger effect, but that would be more expensive.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,707

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    My stupidest ever night drinking was with Jagerbombs when I was already old enough to know better. A group at a bar said they'd give £100 to the charity of my choice (the neonatal unit at the hospital my own daughter was born) if I could down 12 Jagerbombs in half an hour after I said it wouldn't be a problem for me.

    Five minutes later when those were done it was stretched to £10 per extra bomb I drank in the half hour.

    A few days later I sheepishly walked in to the hospital with £330 to donate to them. They asked how I'd done the fundraising and they'd say something to say thank you for it. I said I didn't want any credit, they insisted and my wife (who was annoyed) insisted I tell them the story. After I did, the lady taking the donation said that she agrees it best they not promote how that fundraising was done.
    I watched The Hangover with my Gen Z eldest son last night. A completely alien world for him: there were no common reference points at all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,328
    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    Davey out and about:

    Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has been visiting the Chancellor’s constituency in Surrey - a big LD 🎯 target. He ended up pulling pints in The Star in Witley.

    https://x.com/peter_henley/status/1765021488107630657?s=46

    Ed Davey anecdote: I was at a pub quiz a few weeks back. Ed Davey featured in a picture round. Only one person out of 80-odd recognised him. It wasn't even a particularly obscure photo of him.
    Could have been worse.

    79 could have said "It's that f*cker from the Post Office scandal...."
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,960
    On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.

    But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,147
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t think I’m revealing too much if I say one of the authors of this seminal study was with me during the trip

    “New Clues Found in Understanding Near-Death Experiences
    Research finds parallels to certain psychoactive drugs”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-clues-found-in-understanding-near-death-experiences/

    In fact he was sitting right next to me

    Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?

    But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
    The boffin I am talking of - absolutely a world expert - has become convinced through his research that there is a further deeper “spiritual reality” and that psychedelics genuinely allow us to access it. They take off the blinkers, they remove the filters

    They are also weirdly good for curing things like depression and addiction - no one knows why - tho of course they can also be very dangerous

    So if you’re of a spiritual bent take some solace in that. The actual scientists are taking it seriously - and are open to a spiritual explanation
    I wouldn't say I'm spiritual, so much as curious/hopeful. There's nothing like having a brush with Cancer (as I did in 2022) to make you think about life, death and everything in between.

    Gosh, we've got deep on PB this afternoon! Time to get back to Brexit, Sunak and AV. :D
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,147

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    Go you! Live dangerously! :D
    That's nothing - sometimes when eating out, I will order "soup of the day" without asking what it is!
    LOL! :D
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,147
    CatMan said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
    Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
  • AslawAslaw Posts: 6
    Perhaps “Phil” will tell me how to spend the extra 25p each week I will receive with my State Pension when I reach the age of 80.
    Do tell him that 8% or 10% of little is still very little.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,170
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t think I’m revealing too much if I say one of the authors of this seminal study was with me during the trip

    “New Clues Found in Understanding Near-Death Experiences
    Research finds parallels to certain psychoactive drugs”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-clues-found-in-understanding-near-death-experiences/

    In fact he was sitting right next to me

    Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?

    But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
    The boffin I am talking of - absolutely a world expert - has become convinced through his research that there is a further deeper “spiritual reality” and that psychedelics genuinely allow us to access it. They take off the blinkers, they remove the filters

    They are also weirdly good for curing things like depression and addiction - no one knows why - tho of course they can also be very dangerous

    So if you’re of a spiritual bent take some solace in that. The actual scientists are taking it seriously - and are open to a spiritual explanation
    Although its possible that he has just fallen for the experience and is attributing more to it than is there. Without going all fresher at Uni and asking if what I see as red is that same for everyone else, as a hard core materialist scientist who is sadly completely non-spiritual, I cannot get away from the idea that the mind makes sense of the sensory inputs it gets to generate the world we experience. Drugs like this are interfering with how that interpretation occurs, with the results you know so well. I suspect if you go into it with a bent for spirituality, that will help your outcome.

    I often ask why I have never seen a ghost when so many people have. I may just have never been in the right place right time. But it may be because I don't believe in ghosts... A believer is way more likely to ascribe something on the edge of the senses as a ghost than I ever would. I see a barn owl, you see a little old lady in a white shawl crossing the road (genuine occurence for me and my true believer Aussie aunt).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,945
    I took hallucinogenics once in a pub in Fulham. I did get a 'trip' but it wasn't one you'd call either good or bad. It was a bit of both really.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t think I’m revealing too much if I say one of the authors of this seminal study was with me during the trip

    “New Clues Found in Understanding Near-Death Experiences
    Research finds parallels to certain psychoactive drugs”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-clues-found-in-understanding-near-death-experiences/

    In fact he was sitting right next to me

    Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?

    But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
    The boffin I am talking of - absolutely a world expert - has become convinced through his research that there is a further deeper “spiritual reality” and that psychedelics genuinely allow us to access it. They take off the blinkers, they remove the filters

    They are also weirdly good for curing things like depression and addiction - no one knows why - tho of course they can also be very dangerous

    So if you’re of a spiritual bent take some solace in that. The actual scientists are taking it seriously - and are open to a spiritual explanation
    Alternatively, in your dying moments you find yourself thinking, "how boring; I already did this".

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    GIN1138 said:

    CatMan said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
    Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
    And yet Leon, who has done them all, is still a user.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,211

    On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.

    But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.

    Unemployment is basically as low as its been in the past 50 years, very little room to fall further.

    What is a big problem is the economically inactive. That would also take a long time to solve, but requires a healthier population, increased investment in health and public health.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    New candidate for world's oldest person.
    117 years young.

    California-born woman is the oldest person in the world
    https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/4507292-california-born-woman-is-the-oldest-person-in-the-world/
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Selebian said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is the narrative about the UK economy wrong?

    image

    But Brexit...
    Ah yes. When was that again? 2016?

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1274832/uk-business-investment/
    (not clear, but I think this is nominal)
    The trick with showing trends you want to see is to carefully pick the start year.

    In this case I think the graph is showing the UK rebounding from a pandemic low. The right hand of a V curve. Unlike the UK, business investment in the EU remained mostly steady through the pandemic, for whatever reason.

    There is other evidence showing UK business investment being negatively impacted since the referendum.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,049
    edited March 5
    My impression from a first-hand experience is that it's indeed very likely that there's something beyond what we see in the here and now.

    Our science is still young, and littered with overconfident predictions.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,565
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    Go you! Live dangerously! :D
    That's nothing - sometimes when eating out, I will order "soup of the day" without asking what it is!
    LOL! :D
    NEVER order "The Special"

    https://youtu.be/otJ2rXMuLno?si=xT_zT6oCx0YJL-4j&t=88
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,660
    kinabalu said:

    I took hallucinogenics once in a pub in Fulham. I did get a 'trip' but it wasn't one you'd call either good or bad. It was a bit of both really.

    A curate's egg then. Were you (or the egg) pickled?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523

    On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.

    But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.

    However, the 4p NI cut is actually real money in people's pocket that they will feel. As long as it isn't funded with extra borrowing then they will get away with it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    You mean you want him to cut our next rise?
    I want him to keep it at triple lock OKC but doing income tax cuts and not exclude us by using NI.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,707
    Nigelb said:

    New candidate for world's oldest person.
    117 years young.

    California-born woman is the oldest person in the world
    https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/4507292-california-born-woman-is-the-oldest-person-in-the-world/

    According to the Death Clock half of you will be challenging for that trophy in a few years. Except me, with my death clock set at the age of 73.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Phil said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Reducing taxes now is dumb, but if it has to be done for electoral reasons, reducing tax for those who are economically active is clearly more sensible than just giving a bung to the retired and others living on unearned income. Hunt is trying to square the circle between what his party wants for electoral reasons and what is economically sensible.
    So it’s dumb and not targeting potential Tory voters so it’s doubly dumb
    Think of the poor pensioners , that is 2 NI cuts and nothing for the pensioners. Tories are on a death wish.
    Pensioners are getting a state pension rise of 8.5% in April, more than inflation over the previous year. In 2023, they received a 10.1% rise in a year when everyone else saw their incomes rise by 5.8%, so a 4% pay cut in real terms.

    If pensioners were in their 20s they would be being excoriated by the right-wing press for sponging off the rest of the country.
    Not when they are working twice as hard as the lazy youngsters who think they should get everything handed to them on a plate. Get out of their beds in teh morning and get working and less whining like spoilt babies.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    GIN1138 said:

    CatMan said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
    Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
    Bollox GIN, the water of life.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,648
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t think I’m revealing too much if I say one of the authors of this seminal study was with me during the trip

    “New Clues Found in Understanding Near-Death Experiences
    Research finds parallels to certain psychoactive drugs”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-clues-found-in-understanding-near-death-experiences/

    In fact he was sitting right next to me

    Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?

    But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
    The boffin I am talking of - absolutely a world expert - has become convinced through his research that there is a further deeper “spiritual reality” and that psychedelics genuinely allow us to access it. They take off the blinkers, they remove the filters

    They are also weirdly good for curing things like depression and addiction - no one knows why - tho of course they can also be very dangerous

    So if you’re of a spiritual bent take some solace in that. The actual scientists are taking it seriously - and are open to a spiritual explanation
    Alternatively, in your dying moments you find yourself thinking, "how boring; I already did this".

    I’m sure death will be an awfully big adventure

    I have a very good old friend dying right now. Probably got a few weeks at most. Liver failure leading to massive organ failure - he’s a huge boozer and smoker. No exercise. Poor diet

    He’s also a brilliantly funny guy and I had some of my best adventures with him - one of them a gazette official road trip around Vietnam where we had to invent a floating red light distract and ended up with terrible opium habits and a couple of “souvenir girlfriends”

    When I heard the news - about 3 days ago - I was obviously distressed. But his partner said “don’t be too sad. He said to me the other day ‘ive had a wonderful life and ive lived it entirely on my own terms, I don’t regret a thing’

    Which was and is quite heartening. I hope I show the same sanguine acceptance
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,648

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t think I’m revealing too much if I say one of the authors of this seminal study was with me during the trip

    “New Clues Found in Understanding Near-Death Experiences
    Research finds parallels to certain psychoactive drugs”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-clues-found-in-understanding-near-death-experiences/

    In fact he was sitting right next to me

    Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?

    But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
    The boffin I am talking of - absolutely a world expert - has become convinced through his research that there is a further deeper “spiritual reality” and that psychedelics genuinely allow us to access it. They take off the blinkers, they remove the filters

    They are also weirdly good for curing things like depression and addiction - no one knows why - tho of course they can also be very dangerous

    So if you’re of a spiritual bent take some solace in that. The actual scientists are taking it seriously - and are open to a spiritual explanation
    Although its possible that he has just fallen for the experience and is attributing more to it than is there. Without going all fresher at Uni and asking if what I see as red is that same for everyone else, as a hard core materialist scientist who is sadly completely non-spiritual, I cannot get away from the idea that the mind makes sense of the sensory inputs it gets to generate the world we experience. Drugs like this are interfering with how that interpretation occurs, with the results you know so well. I suspect if you go into it with a bent for spirituality, that will help your outcome.

    I often ask why I have never seen a ghost when so many people have. I may just have never been in the right place right time. But it may be because I don't believe in ghosts... A believer is way more likely to ascribe something on the edge of the senses as a ghost than I ever would. I see a barn owl, you see a little old lady in a white shawl crossing the road (genuine occurence for me and my true believer Aussie aunt).
    You say “interfering” I say “expanding”

    And I think I’m right

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    MaxPB said:

    On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.

    But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.

    However, the 4p NI cut is actually real money in people's pocket that they will feel. As long as it isn't funded with extra borrowing then they will get away with it.
    It does make a certain amount of sense - but since they introduced it in the first place, it's all a bit Grand Old Duke.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    You mean you want him to cut our next rise?
    I want him to keep it at triple lock OKC but doing income tax cuts and not exclude us by using NI.
    You're as bad as all those people they interviewed for that BBC article, malc. :smile:
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,821

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    Today's The Rest is Entertainment podcast, helmed by Richard Osman and Marina Hyde, talks about GB News. Their highest rated show last week, in terms of viewership, was one of Farage's 7pm slots, with, I think off the top of my head, 126,000 viewers.

    A repeat of Midsomer Murders or something on some obscure channel was getting 200k+ viewers.

    But beyond those raw, very low, numbers, they both agree that that channel's reach is huge. Hyde puts that down to clips circulating on social media, Osman leans more towards an incestuous media giving them excess column inches.

    Whatever you think, it's certainly punching above its weight. Hyde said it aims to be the biggest news channel by 2028 and she thinks they'll get there - albeit the news channels have low numbers.

    Presumably the deep-pocketed citizens of nowhere who fund it see benefits in its influence and are happy to splurge the cash to keep the channel running in the expectation it will help deliver a more unequal, right-wing UK with poor public services, increased inequality and lax regulation in a wide range of areas. It's simply right-wing propaganda.

    The podcast looked at TV viewership in the UK more generally - last week 97% of the top 100 viewed programmes (on the overnight figs, not including catch up on streaming) were on BBC1 or ITV1. 67% of TV is consumed as its broadcast live. Which, Osman said, gives lie to the notion that everyone just streams everything now and live linear TV is dead - although its declining there's life in the old dog yet.

    Can't remember the top three programmes but it was something like Antiques Roadshow, Midsomer Murders and Death in Paradise.

    EastEnders is down to 2.something million people watching it live, Corrie on 3.something million. So the soaps are struggling.

    Local news, across the country in total, gets massive viewing figures.

    As Osman says, if you want to understand the UK, understand that it isn't people streaming Succession, it's people watching the One Show live on BBC1. It's a deeply unfashionable Britain that simply doesn't catch the attention of the chattering classes.

    An interesting episode, worth a listen.
    BBC presenter suggest BBC viewers represent Britain. That's a touch MRDA is it not?

    Britain is a diverse country, if you want to understand Britain you need to understand that. There is no single representative of what Britain looks like?

    What percentage of the UK sits and watches the One Show live? 70%? 50%+1? Or more like 10%?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474

    Nigelb said:

    New candidate for world's oldest person.
    117 years young.

    California-born woman is the oldest person in the world
    https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/4507292-california-born-woman-is-the-oldest-person-in-the-world/

    Is she running for the Democrats or the GOP?
    I thought we'd settled that we're about to embark on the second of Biden's six terms ?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    You mean you want him to cut our next rise?
    I want him to keep it at triple lock OKC but doing income tax cuts and not exclude us by using NI.
    You're as bad as all those people they interviewed for that BBC article, malc. :smile:
    Hard done by Nigel, be worse when those dodgy Labour gits get their hands in the till as well. Poverty beckons.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,453

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    Today's The Rest is Entertainment podcast, helmed by Richard Osman and Marina Hyde, talks about GB News. Their highest rated show last week, in terms of viewership, was one of Farage's 7pm slots, with, I think off the top of my head, 126,000 viewers.

    A repeat of Midsomer Murders or something on some obscure channel was getting 200k+ viewers.

    But beyond those raw, very low, numbers, they both agree that that channel's reach is huge. Hyde puts that down to clips circulating on social media, Osman leans more towards an incestuous media giving them excess column inches.

    Whatever you think, it's certainly punching above its weight. Hyde said it aims to be the biggest news channel by 2028 and she thinks they'll get there - albeit the news channels have low numbers.

    Presumably the deep-pocketed citizens of nowhere who fund it see benefits in its influence and are happy to splurge the cash to keep the channel running in the expectation it will help deliver a more unequal, right-wing UK with poor public services, increased inequality and lax regulation in a wide range of areas. It's simply right-wing propaganda.

    The podcast looked at TV viewership in the UK more generally - last week 97% of the top 100 viewed programmes (on the overnight figs, not including catch up on streaming) were on BBC1 or ITV1. 67% of TV is consumed as its broadcast live. Which, Osman said, gives lie to the notion that everyone just streams everything now and live linear TV is dead - although its declining there's life in the old dog yet.

    Can't remember the top three programmes but it was something like Antiques Roadshow, Midsomer Murders and Death in Paradise.

    EastEnders is down to 2.something million people watching it live, Corrie on 3.something million. So the soaps are struggling.

    Local news, across the country in total, gets massive viewing figures.

    As Osman says, if you want to understand the UK, understand that it isn't people streaming Succession, it's people watching the One Show live on BBC1. It's a deeply unfashionable Britain that simply doesn't catch the attention of the chattering classes.

    An interesting episode, worth a listen.
    I think its quite hard for people who are fully into streaming their TV that others (and typically older viewers) don't so this, and do still look to see 'what's on now?'. I tend to do it myself although we will stream stuff too and use it to watch stuff, as with a 1 year old, getting to watch an hours TV must be done when he is in bed.
    My parents don't have access to streaming, but do use Sky+ still.

    Its not unlike a certain user banging on about no longer needing cash. Live TV is still useful to many many people.
    Worth noting too that live TV is particularly watched by older folk, or in other words voters.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,821
    rkrkrk said:

    On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.

    But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.

    Unemployment is basically as low as its been in the past 50 years, very little room to fall further.

    What is a big problem is the economically inactive. That would also take a long time to solve, but requires a healthier population, increased investment in health and public health.
    Or it requires making work pay by addressing the draconianly high real tax rates people face if they move from benefits to work so too many don't bother.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    You mean you want him to cut our next rise?
    I want him to keep it at triple lock OKC but doing income tax cuts and not exclude us by using NI.
    You're as bad as all those people they interviewed for that BBC article, malc. :smile:
    Hard done by Nigel, be worse when those dodgy Labour gits get their hands in the till as well. Poverty beckons.
    I have every faith in your survival skills.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,560
    Here is President Reagan (in 30 seconds) making a case for the BBC World Service.
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7Y_Ds0go-lc
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,692
    GIN1138 said:

    CatMan said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
    Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
    I did my PhD with someone studying polydrug users. He showed me this great research paper where they asked a bunch of polydrug users how good different drugs were (+ also sex, for comparison).

    They should show the results to kids in school. Basically, a spliff or a bonk are better than nearly anything. Alcohol came out quite well. Sniffing glue, which is one of the most dangerous drugs, rated worse than chocolate.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813
    Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,821
    Foxy said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    Today's The Rest is Entertainment podcast, helmed by Richard Osman and Marina Hyde, talks about GB News. Their highest rated show last week, in terms of viewership, was one of Farage's 7pm slots, with, I think off the top of my head, 126,000 viewers.

    A repeat of Midsomer Murders or something on some obscure channel was getting 200k+ viewers.

    But beyond those raw, very low, numbers, they both agree that that channel's reach is huge. Hyde puts that down to clips circulating on social media, Osman leans more towards an incestuous media giving them excess column inches.

    Whatever you think, it's certainly punching above its weight. Hyde said it aims to be the biggest news channel by 2028 and she thinks they'll get there - albeit the news channels have low numbers.

    Presumably the deep-pocketed citizens of nowhere who fund it see benefits in its influence and are happy to splurge the cash to keep the channel running in the expectation it will help deliver a more unequal, right-wing UK with poor public services, increased inequality and lax regulation in a wide range of areas. It's simply right-wing propaganda.

    The podcast looked at TV viewership in the UK more generally - last week 97% of the top 100 viewed programmes (on the overnight figs, not including catch up on streaming) were on BBC1 or ITV1. 67% of TV is consumed as its broadcast live. Which, Osman said, gives lie to the notion that everyone just streams everything now and live linear TV is dead - although its declining there's life in the old dog yet.

    Can't remember the top three programmes but it was something like Antiques Roadshow, Midsomer Murders and Death in Paradise.

    EastEnders is down to 2.something million people watching it live, Corrie on 3.something million. So the soaps are struggling.

    Local news, across the country in total, gets massive viewing figures.

    As Osman says, if you want to understand the UK, understand that it isn't people streaming Succession, it's people watching the One Show live on BBC1. It's a deeply unfashionable Britain that simply doesn't catch the attention of the chattering classes.

    An interesting episode, worth a listen.
    I think its quite hard for people who are fully into streaming their TV that others (and typically older viewers) don't so this, and do still look to see 'what's on now?'. I tend to do it myself although we will stream stuff too and use it to watch stuff, as with a 1 year old, getting to watch an hours TV must be done when he is in bed.
    My parents don't have access to streaming, but do use Sky+ still.

    Its not unlike a certain user banging on about no longer needing cash. Live TV is still useful to many many people.
    Worth noting too that live TV is particularly watched by older folk, or in other words voters.
    The problem is that young people become voters as they get older.

    They don't start watching live TV as they get older.

    Live TV is dead, it's just a matter of time.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,821
    pigeon said:

    Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.

    Couldn't disagree more.

    Cutting NI is the right thing to do. Cutting the burden of taxes on people who actually work for a living is the right thing to do.

    If anyone's upset they're not covered by the cut on taking jobs, maybe they should start by going out and getting a job then?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,568
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    New candidate for world's oldest person.
    117 years young.

    California-born woman is the oldest person in the world
    https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/4507292-california-born-woman-is-the-oldest-person-in-the-world/

    According to the Death Clock half of you will be challenging for that trophy in a few years. Except me, with my death clock set at the age of 73.
    73? Shit.

    Time to improve the diet? I recommend Zoe.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523
    pigeon said:

    Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.

    Politically a mistake, maybe, but economically it's far better than a 1p income tax cut. Giving working age people a 2p tax cut on working incomes will have a significantly better multiplier than 1p cut for all classes of income. Basically, it's much less likely to end up in some low yield savings bond.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,420

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    All broadcast TV is dying. In a few years the switch off will begin. It will all go online.
    Hopefully they can fix the lag problem that afflicts all ‘live’ sports online: typically 90-120 minutes behind real time. Awful for bettors and rather useless when someone I in the pub has the Live Scores app
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,568
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    You mean you want him to cut our next rise?
    I want him to keep it at triple lock OKC but doing income tax cuts and not exclude us by using NI.
    You're as bad as all those people they interviewed for that BBC article, malc. :smile:
    Hard done by Nigel, be worse when those dodgy Labour gits get their hands in the till as well. Poverty beckons.
    Cheer up. You can always claim Pension Credit once you're down to £200pw income and all your savings are gone.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,568

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    All broadcast TV is dying. In a few years the switch off will begin. It will all go online.
    Hopefully they can fix the lag problem that afflicts all ‘live’ sports online: typically 90-120 minutes behind real time. Awful for bettors and rather useless when someone I in the pub has the Live Scores app
    Seconds not minutes surely?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,060

    rkrkrk said:

    On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.

    But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.

    Unemployment is basically as low as its been in the past 50 years, very little room to fall further.

    What is a big problem is the economically inactive. That would also take a long time to solve, but requires a healthier population, increased investment in health and public health.
    Or it requires making work pay by addressing the draconianly high real tax rates people face if they move from benefits to work so too many don't bother.
    I think we end up with a statement that a lot of people are supposedly economically inactive without a clue as to why that is the case and the reason behind it
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,758
    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    CatMan said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
    Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
    Bollox GIN...
    I thought it was made from Juniper berries?

  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,813
    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.

    Politically a mistake, maybe, but economically it's far better than a 1p income tax cut. Giving working age people a 2p tax cut on working incomes will have a significantly better multiplier than 1p cut for all classes of income. Basically, it's much less likely to end up in some low yield savings bond.
    If the Government really cared about the economy and incomes for your average worker, it would unfreeze the thresholds and hike taxation on assets as well. But it doesn't.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,420

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    Today's The Rest is Entertainment podcast, helmed by Richard Osman and Marina Hyde, talks about GB News. Their highest rated show last week, in terms of viewership, was one of Farage's 7pm slots, with, I think off the top of my head, 126,000 viewers.

    A repeat of Midsomer Murders or something on some obscure channel was getting 200k+ viewers.

    But beyond those raw, very low, numbers, they both agree that that channel's reach is huge. Hyde puts that down to clips circulating on social media, Osman leans more towards an incestuous media giving them excess column inches.

    Whatever you think, it's certainly punching above its weight. Hyde said it aims to be the biggest news channel by 2028 and she thinks they'll get there - albeit the news channels have low numbers.

    Presumably the deep-pocketed citizens of nowhere who fund it see benefits in its influence and are happy to splurge the cash to keep the channel running in the expectation it will help deliver a more unequal, right-wing UK with poor public services, increased inequality and lax regulation in a wide range of areas. It's simply right-wing propaganda.

    The podcast looked at TV viewership in the UK more generally - last week 97% of the top 100 viewed programmes (on the overnight figs, not including catch up on streaming) were on BBC1 or ITV1. 67% of TV is consumed as its broadcast live. Which, Osman said, gives lie to the notion that everyone just streams everything now and live linear TV is dead - although its declining there's life in the old dog yet.

    Can't remember the top three programmes but it was something like Antiques Roadshow, Midsomer Murders and Death in Paradise.

    EastEnders is down to 2.something million people watching it live, Corrie on 3.something million. So the soaps are struggling.

    Local news, across the country in total, gets massive viewing figures.

    As Osman says, if you want to understand the UK, understand that it isn't people streaming Succession, it's people watching the One Show live on BBC1. It's a deeply unfashionable Britain that simply doesn't catch the attention of the chattering classes.

    An interesting episode, worth a listen.
    In fairness that’s a poor example because a bang average episode of the One Show is more interesting than Succession, which is one of the most boring shows ever made.

    But, generally, point taken. I watch mostly cable but that’s because I watch mostly sport: useless online because it’s so far behind real time.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,568

    pigeon said:

    Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.

    Couldn't disagree more.

    Cutting NI is the right thing to do. Cutting the burden of taxes on people who actually work for a living is the right thing to do.

    If anyone's upset they're not covered by the cut on taking jobs, maybe they should start by going out and getting a job then?
    Hear, hear. It's not going to help me but it's definitely better than an ICT cut. I doubt it's the right thing to do with borrowing and debt repayments so high, and public services in such a dire state.

    Does anyone know how much a 1p cut in NI costs the Treasury versus a 1p cut in ICT?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523
    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.

    Politically a mistake, maybe, but economically it's far better than a 1p income tax cut. Giving working age people a 2p tax cut on working incomes will have a significantly better multiplier than 1p cut for all classes of income. Basically, it's much less likely to end up in some low yield savings bond.
    If the Government really cared about the economy and incomes for your average worker, it would unfreeze the thresholds and hike taxation on assets as well. But it doesn't.
    By keeping thresholds frozen and cutting NI it is an effective transfer of wealth from non-working people to working people. Unfreezing the thresholds would benefit idle income like pensions, rent and dividends. NI is specifically a tax on work, it is the most pernicious tax we have and setting the trend for cutting it rather than income tax is a win for working people. In an ideal world we would continue this trend until NI is entirely eliminated, funnel threshold freezes into cutting NI for the next decade and equalise tax rates for income from work and income from asset sweating.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,420

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    Today's The Rest is Entertainment podcast, helmed by Richard Osman and Marina Hyde, talks about GB News. Their highest rated show last week, in terms of viewership, was one of Farage's 7pm slots, with, I think off the top of my head, 126,000 viewers.

    A repeat of Midsomer Murders or something on some obscure channel was getting 200k+ viewers.

    But beyond those raw, very low, numbers, they both agree that that channel's reach is huge. Hyde puts that down to clips circulating on social media, Osman leans more towards an incestuous media giving them excess column inches.

    Whatever you think, it's certainly punching above its weight. Hyde said it aims to be the biggest news channel by 2028 and she thinks they'll get there - albeit the news channels have low numbers.

    Presumably the deep-pocketed citizens of nowhere who fund it see benefits in its influence and are happy to splurge the cash to keep the channel running in the expectation it will help deliver a more unequal, right-wing UK with poor public services, increased inequality and lax regulation in a wide range of areas. It's simply right-wing propaganda.

    The podcast looked at TV viewership in the UK more generally - last week 97% of the top 100 viewed programmes (on the overnight figs, not including catch up on streaming) were on BBC1 or ITV1. 67% of TV is consumed as its broadcast live. Which, Osman said, gives lie to the notion that everyone just streams everything now and live linear TV is dead - although its declining there's life in the old dog yet.

    Can't remember the top three programmes but it was something like Antiques Roadshow, Midsomer Murders and Death in Paradise.

    EastEnders is down to 2.something million people watching it live, Corrie on 3.something million. So the soaps are struggling.

    Local news, across the country in total, gets massive viewing figures.

    As Osman says, if you want to understand the UK, understand that it isn't people streaming Succession, it's people watching the One Show live on BBC1. It's a deeply unfashionable Britain that simply doesn't catch the attention of the chattering classes.

    An interesting episode, worth a listen.
    I think its quite hard for people who are fully into streaming their TV that others (and typically older viewers) don't so this, and do still look to see 'what's on now?'. I tend to do it myself although we will stream stuff too and use it to watch stuff, as with a 1 year old, getting to watch an hours TV must be done when he is in bed.
    My parents don't have access to streaming, but do use Sky+ still.

    Its not unlike a certain user banging on about no longer needing cash. Live TV is still useful to many many people.
    Hmm. “Banging on”. Challenge for you: when did I last bring it up? These days everyone else brings it up and I (occasionally) play ball. It’s almost as if PBers love talking about it!! Note @SandyRentool bringing it up AGAIN above!!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,523

    pigeon said:

    Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.

    Couldn't disagree more.

    Cutting NI is the right thing to do. Cutting the burden of taxes on people who actually work for a living is the right thing to do.

    If anyone's upset they're not covered by the cut on taking jobs, maybe they should start by going out and getting a job then?
    Hear, hear. It's not going to help me but it's definitely better than an ICT cut. I doubt it's the right thing to do with borrowing and debt repayments so high, and public services in such a dire state.

    Does anyone know how much a 1p cut in NI costs the Treasury versus a 1p cut in ICT?
    About £2bn per penny. This will cost ~£10bn per year vs 2p off the basic rate of income tax at ~£14bn per year.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,420

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    All broadcast TV is dying. In a few years the switch off will begin. It will all go online.
    Hopefully they can fix the lag problem that afflicts all ‘live’ sports online: typically 90-120 minutes behind real time. Awful for bettors and rather useless when someone I in the pub has the Live Scores app
    Seconds not minutes surely?
    Yes seconds - apologies - still way too long!!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    Macron apparently arguing for a European nuclear deterrent, without realising it.
    But otherwise, quite correct.

    Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:

    "Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin.
    If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us."

    https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1765030569014853696
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,474
    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.

    Couldn't disagree more.

    Cutting NI is the right thing to do. Cutting the burden of taxes on people who actually work for a living is the right thing to do.

    If anyone's upset they're not covered by the cut on taking jobs, maybe they should start by going out and getting a job then?
    Hear, hear. It's not going to help me but it's definitely better than an ICT cut. I doubt it's the right thing to do with borrowing and debt repayments so high, and public services in such a dire state.

    Does anyone know how much a 1p cut in NI costs the Treasury versus a 1p cut in ICT?
    About £2bn per penny. This will cost ~£10bn per year vs 2p off the basic rate of income tax at ~£14bn per year.
    Does that account for the public sector pay effect ?
    A cut in NI directly benefits employees on low incomes more than a 1p cut in tax - and arguably the government should see some slight benefit in the next year's pay negotiations, too.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209

    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    You mean you want him to cut our next rise?
    I want him to keep it at triple lock OKC but doing income tax cuts and not exclude us by using NI.
    You're as bad as all those people they interviewed for that BBC article, malc. :smile:
    Hard done by Nigel, be worse when those dodgy Labour gits get their hands in the till as well. Poverty beckons.
    Cheer up. You can always claim Pension Credit once you're down to £200pw income and all your savings are gone.
    I will never in my life receive a penny of benefits unless I live till 150
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,049
    edited March 5
    Nigelb said:

    Macron apparently arguing for a European nuclear deterrent, without realising it.
    But otherwise, quite correct.

    Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:

    "Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin.
    If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us."

    https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1765030569014853696

    Not entirely clear what he means there, but I suspect it's a case of lost in translation.

    He's become much more hawkish recently, which is a concern, from my point of view, as he was an important counterweight to the other approach, creating something more like a moderate consensus on what to do with Ukraine. I found myself agreeing with part of Simin Jenkins' piece this morming, reminding the West that it has to think carefully about the calculus of its interests.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    viewcode said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    CatMan said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
    Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
    Bollox GIN...
    I thought it was made from Juniper berries?

    Not going by GIN description, but a very pleasant summer libation
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,420
    No doubt that booze is up there with the most damaging drugs, vastly worse than ecstasy, mushrooms and - very probably - aychusca (sp?)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,223
    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    Why do you hope that?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,060
    Nigelb said:

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.

    Couldn't disagree more.

    Cutting NI is the right thing to do. Cutting the burden of taxes on people who actually work for a living is the right thing to do.

    If anyone's upset they're not covered by the cut on taking jobs, maybe they should start by going out and getting a job then?
    Hear, hear. It's not going to help me but it's definitely better than an ICT cut. I doubt it's the right thing to do with borrowing and debt repayments so high, and public services in such a dire state.

    Does anyone know how much a 1p cut in NI costs the Treasury versus a 1p cut in ICT?
    About £2bn per penny. This will cost ~£10bn per year vs 2p off the basic rate of income tax at ~£14bn per year.
    Does that account for the public sector pay effect ?
    A cut in NI directly benefits employees on low incomes more than a 1p cut in tax - and arguably the government should see some slight benefit in the next year's pay negotiations, too.
    Ever since Truss (from memory) increased the starting point of NI to the same as income tax it doesn’t make that much difference but does better benefit people whose income is not consistent week on werk
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,281
    Nigelb said:

    Macron apparently arguing for a European nuclear deterrent, without realising it.
    But otherwise, quite correct.

    Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:

    "Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin.
    If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us."

    https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1765030569014853696

    I think it's more of a criticism of Scholz.

    Macron asks, "Is it our war or not?" which is a response to Scholz's arm's length approach.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,223

    No doubt that booze is up there with the most damaging drugs, vastly worse than ecstasy, mushrooms and - very probably - aychusca (sp?)

    Can you have a delicious small portion of ecstasy with a meal and feel a light buzz and have a nice conversation?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,804

    No doubt that booze is up there with the most damaging drugs, vastly worse than ecstasy, mushrooms and - very probably - aychusca (sp?)

    Can you have a delicious small portion of ecstasy with a meal and feel a light buzz and have a nice conversation?
    As ecstasy is an appetite suppressant, I'm going with "no".

    That said, no one ever took MDMA and beat their wife up. So, it's all swings and roundabouts.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,281
    More problems in Germany

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/mar/05/leftwing-vulkan-group-claim-responsibility-tesla-factory-pylon-arson-attack-berlin

    Leftwing extremists have claimed responsibility for a dawn arson attack on an electricity pylon at the Tesla car factory in Berlin, which bosses said would halt production until the end of the week.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,821
    rcs1000 said:

    No doubt that booze is up there with the most damaging drugs, vastly worse than ecstasy, mushrooms and - very probably - aychusca (sp?)

    Can you have a delicious small portion of ecstasy with a meal and feel a light buzz and have a nice conversation?
    As ecstasy is an appetite suppressant, I'm going with "no".

    That said, no one ever took MDMA and beat their wife up. So, it's all swings and roundabouts.
    Alcohol doesn't make people beat up their wives, anyone who does that is responsible for their actions.

    Vast majority of people who drink alcohol are perfectly decent.

    Contrast with coke which seems to make anyone who gets hooked on that a complete and utter twat.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744
    edited March 5
    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.

    Politically a mistake, maybe, but economically it's far better than a 1p income tax cut. Giving working age people a 2p tax cut on working incomes will have a significantly better multiplier than 1p cut for all classes of income. Basically, it's much less likely to end up in some low yield savings bond.
    If the Government really cared about the economy and incomes for your average worker, it would unfreeze the thresholds and hike taxation on assets as well. But it doesn't.
    By keeping thresholds frozen and cutting NI it is an effective transfer of wealth from non-working people to working people. Unfreezing the thresholds would benefit idle income like pensions, rent and dividends. NI is specifically a tax on work, it is the most pernicious tax we have and setting the trend for cutting it rather than income tax is a win for working people. In an ideal world we would continue this trend until NI is entirely eliminated, funnel threshold freezes into cutting NI for the next decade and equalise tax rates for income from work and income from asset sweating.
    Speaking as a pensioner, who this week has had 25p per week ( taxable of course) added to his pension I absolutely support Hunt effectively taking 4p off employee NI, not least because pensioners received a 10.1% increase last year and in April a further 8.5% increase and that is the triple lock which is a lot more than 4p off most peoples NI

    Indeed it needs to be merged with income tax asap for fairness
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,335
    kinabalu said:

    I took hallucinogenics once in a pub in Fulham. I did get a 'trip' but it wasn't one you'd call either good or bad. It was a bit of both really.

    Good. You were in a pub.
    Bad. You were in Fulham?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,223

    Nigelb said:

    Macron apparently arguing for a European nuclear deterrent, without realising it.
    But otherwise, quite correct.

    Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:

    "Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin.
    If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us."

    https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1765030569014853696

    I think it's more of a criticism of Scholz.

    Macron asks, "Is it our war or not?" which is a response to Scholz's arm's length approach.
    I'd gladly sell Trident to the EU if they want a nuclear deterrent. I wanted them to have one of our aircraft carriers too.

    Give them all the expensive and ultimately worthless defence baubles they want to dangle their EU flag off of, and let us have a proper army, navy, airforce, and suite of tactical nuclear options. Less glamorous, more useful.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,569

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    Why do you hope that?
    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/dan-wootton-fired-gb-news-172753520.html
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,198
    For those who like military pron:

    https://twitter.com/MandyHickson/status/1764918258874949692/photo/1
    and
    https://twitter.com/eideticeye/status/1764720167810965645/photo/1

    (F35, the northern lights, and HMS Prince of Wales)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,223

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    Why do you hope that?
    https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/dan-wootton-fired-gb-news-172753520.html
    You think he wants GBNews to close down because they've lost Dan Wooton? Is he a big fan?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,223
    FF43 said:

    People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?

    Strange that the usual suspects never say this about new spending commitments.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,063
    FF43 said:

    People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?

    Of course they do. Some other questions, because I can't face doing the maths myself?

    1 How far is this BIG LOUD NI CUT just recycling the gains from the ongoing threshold freeze?

    2 If the move is to lower rates but lower thresholds, doesn't that transfer tax burden to lower paid people?

    3 The spending plans underpinning this are a joke, aren't they?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744
    Most Chancellors keep something back as a show stopper but the 2p NI reduction has been so leaked what is it ?

    And it will not be a May GE, Sunak announces that and most everyone in the media is calling it for the Autumn with labour supportes the ones promoting May, so they can say Sunak is running scared ( which he may well be)

    Labour are such favourites for the next government it will be interesting to see just how confidence rises over the summer, which of course Sunak will claim for his party
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,565

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    MaxPB said:

    pigeon said:

    Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.

    Politically a mistake, maybe, but economically it's far better than a 1p income tax cut. Giving working age people a 2p tax cut on working incomes will have a significantly better multiplier than 1p cut for all classes of income. Basically, it's much less likely to end up in some low yield savings bond.
    If the Government really cared about the economy and incomes for your average worker, it would unfreeze the thresholds and hike taxation on assets as well. But it doesn't.
    By keeping thresholds frozen and cutting NI it is an effective transfer of wealth from non-working people to working people. Unfreezing the thresholds would benefit idle income like pensions, rent and dividends. NI is specifically a tax on work, it is the most pernicious tax we have and setting the trend for cutting it rather than income tax is a win for working people. In an ideal world we would continue this trend until NI is entirely eliminated, funnel threshold freezes into cutting NI for the next decade and equalise tax rates for income from work and income from asset sweating.
    Speaking as a pensioner, who this week has had 25p per week ( taxable of course) added to his pension I absolutely support Hunt effectively taking 4p off employee NI, not least because pensioners received a 10.1% increase last year and in April a further 8.5% increase and that is the triple lock which is a lot more than 4p off most peoples NI

    Indeed it needs to be merged with income tax asap for fairness
    I think that Hunt is pointing the way to a slow phase out of NI - use fiscal drag to increase income tax receipts, and abolish NI.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,524
    malcolmg said:

    viewcode said:

    malcolmg said:

    GIN1138 said:

    CatMan said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
    Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
    Bollox GIN...
    I thought it was made from Juniper berries?

    Not going by GIN description, but a very pleasant summer libation
    Bollox gin? Each to their own taste!

    Though perhaps MORE pleasant a libation (summer, fall, winter, spring) than, say, dingleberry wine.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,168

    Most Chancellors keep something back as a show stopper but the 2p NI reduction has been so leaked what is it ?

    And it will not be a May GE, Sunak announces that and most everyone in the media is calling it for the Autumn with labour supportes the ones promoting May, so they can say Sunak is running scared ( which he may well be)

    Labour are such favourites for the next government it will be interesting to see just how confidence rises over the summer, which of course Sunak will claim for his party

    I am old enough to remember when leaking the budget was a resigning matter.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744
    FF43 said:

    People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?

    If Hunt does use cancellation of non dom status as part of the money raised for the NI cut, then Starmer and Reeves have only about 1 billion left from VAT on private school fees left

    It will require them to review their tax and spend policy
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744

    Most Chancellors keep something back as a show stopper but the 2p NI reduction has been so leaked what is it ?

    And it will not be a May GE, Sunak announces that and most everyone in the media is calling it for the Autumn with labour supportes the ones promoting May, so they can say Sunak is running scared ( which he may well be)

    Labour are such favourites for the next government it will be interesting to see just how confidence rises over the summer, which of course Sunak will claim for his party

    I am old enough to remember when leaking the budget was a resigning matter.
    When did any chancellor resign after leaking budgets as it has gone on for decades
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744

    I am a high income earner and I am fine with my taxes and would understand if I got taxed more given the plight of many of my compatriots and our shared services. I have ZERO interest in tax cuts. For me patriotism is not flags and pint sized champagne. It is investing in our shared destiny. 🤷

    You can volunteer to pay additional tax if you so wish
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,168
    edited March 5

    Most Chancellors keep something back as a show stopper but the 2p NI reduction has been so leaked what is it ?

    And it will not be a May GE, Sunak announces that and most everyone in the media is calling it for the Autumn with labour supportes the ones promoting May, so they can say Sunak is running scared ( which he may well be)

    Labour are such favourites for the next government it will be interesting to see just how confidence rises over the summer, which of course Sunak will claim for his party

    I am old enough to remember when leaking the budget was a resigning matter.
    When did any chancellor resign after leaking budgets as it has gone on for decades
    Hugh Dalton in Attlee's Government.

    It was a sensible rule.

    But I lied, I am not old enough to remember.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,199

    FF43 said:

    People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?

    If Hunt does use cancellation of non dom status as part of the money raised for the NI cut, then Starmer and Reeves have only about 1 billion left from VAT on private school fees left

    It will require them to review their tax and spend policy
    That’s why they shouldn’t haven’t ruled out tax increases on the highest earners . The Tories seem intent on trashing public services to offer election bribes .
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,707

    I am a high income earner and I am fine with my taxes and would understand if I got taxed more given the plight of many of my compatriots and our shared services. I have ZERO interest in tax cuts. For me patriotism is not flags and pint sized champagne. It is investing in our shared destiny. 🤷

    You can volunteer to pay additional tax if you so wish
    You can’t actually. Not possible to volunteer a higher tax liability.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,060

    I am a high income earner and I am fine with my taxes and would understand if I got taxed more given the plight of many of my compatriots and our shared services. I have ZERO interest in tax cuts. For me patriotism is not flags and pint sized champagne. It is investing in our shared destiny. 🤷

    You can volunteer to pay additional tax if you so wish
    I don’t want to pay more tax but I would prefer to pay tax at the rates I currently pay and get decent services rather than paying less tax while watching more services fall apart
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,565

    rcs1000 said:

    No doubt that booze is up there with the most damaging drugs, vastly worse than ecstasy, mushrooms and - very probably - aychusca (sp?)

    Can you have a delicious small portion of ecstasy with a meal and feel a light buzz and have a nice conversation?
    As ecstasy is an appetite suppressant, I'm going with "no".

    That said, no one ever took MDMA and beat their wife up. So, it's all swings and roundabouts.
    Alcohol doesn't make people beat up their wives, anyone who does that is responsible for their actions.

    Vast majority of people who drink alcohol are perfectly decent.

    Contrast with coke which seems to make anyone who gets hooked on that a complete and utter twat.

    Pah, that is nothing ayahuasca is so potent that it makes people a complete and utter twat for several years before they even try it.
    Unless it contains Thiotimoline, of course.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744
    Hunt's constituency office daubed with

    'Die Tory scum'

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,707

    FF43 said:

    People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?

    If Hunt does use cancellation of non dom status as part of the money raised for the NI cut, then Starmer and Reeves have only about 1 billion left from VAT on private school fees left

    It will require them to review their tax and spend policy
    I think Reeves will probably keep the tax cuts. Too electorally difficult not to. Which means no money left for even basic maintenance of public infrastructure
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,744
    nico679 said:

    FF43 said:

    People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?

    If Hunt does use cancellation of non dom status as part of the money raised for the NI cut, then Starmer and Reeves have only about 1 billion left from VAT on private school fees left

    It will require them to review their tax and spend policy
    That’s why they shouldn’t haven’t ruled out tax increases on the highest earners . The Tories seem intent on trashing public services to offer election bribes .
    I really cannot understand why Labour haven't promised a wealth tax

    Indeed a higher rare tax band of 50% on £250,000 pa income including investments
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,784

    Hunt's constituency office daubed with

    'Die Tory scum'

    Leaving aside how hateful and ridiculous that is, I question what it is even worth to the target audience. Who is it impressing who was not on board with the message? Is it worth potentially getting arrested for making death threats to politicians when you could just have written 'Tory scum' instead?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,629

    nico679 said:

    FF43 said:

    People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?

    If Hunt does use cancellation of non dom status as part of the money raised for the NI cut, then Starmer and Reeves have only about 1 billion left from VAT on private school fees left

    It will require them to review their tax and spend policy
    That’s why they shouldn’t haven’t ruled out tax increases on the highest earners . The Tories seem intent on trashing public services to offer election bribes .
    I really cannot understand why Labour haven't promised a wealth tax

    Indeed a higher rare tax band of 50% on £250,000 pa income including investments
    Maybe it will be a tax band of 50% on more than £100,000pa???
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,565

    Most Chancellors keep something back as a show stopper but the 2p NI reduction has been so leaked what is it ?

    And it will not be a May GE, Sunak announces that and most everyone in the media is calling it for the Autumn with labour supportes the ones promoting May, so they can say Sunak is running scared ( which he may well be)

    Labour are such favourites for the next government it will be interesting to see just how confidence rises over the summer, which of course Sunak will claim for his party

    I am old enough to remember when leaking the budget was a resigning matter.
    When did any chancellor resign after leaking budgets as it has gone on for decades
    In the modern world, a chancellor not leaking the critical bits of the budget would be attacked viciously in the commentariat.

    If nothing else, otherwise on budget day, the talking heads would be required to understand economics and the economy, in order to comment on it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,168

    Hunt's constituency office daubed with

    'Die Tory scum'

    Proscribe the Labour Party and call an election.
This discussion has been closed.