It seems to suggest the two tax measures didn't really have an effect, which is a shame but not entirely surprising because the effect should take a couple of years to filter through given investment time horizons.
Whether we're in a boom or not rather depends on what happened in the couple of years previous to 2021. If investment shrank more than others during Covid (as seems to have been the case with GDP) then the starting point may mask a simple rebound.
Remember dating effects - people spending on equipment in anticipation of claiming etc.
What that shows is investment increasing over a period and appearing to level off around 125% of the previous level.
But with the backdrop of a plunge of 19% in business investment in 2020 and a second one of 9% on the turn of 2021, just before (coincidence?) the original posted graph starts.
The original superdeduction was implemented to stop people holding back spending until the CT rate rise to 25%. IN that I think it succeeded. Full expensing - on paper less generous but combined with 25% CT the same value - has not noticeably impacted most large businesses' capex plans yet. I hope it will do - I am in favour of the measure although sceptical about how big an impact it will have, especially as many of the big spenders quickly run into tax losses if they use all their CAs.
Supercharging full expensing by adding a superdeduction and making that a qualifying refundable tax credit would I think have a much bigger effect, but that would be more expensive.
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
My stupidest ever night drinking was with Jagerbombs when I was already old enough to know better. A group at a bar said they'd give £100 to the charity of my choice (the neonatal unit at the hospital my own daughter was born) if I could down 12 Jagerbombs in half an hour after I said it wouldn't be a problem for me.
Five minutes later when those were done it was stretched to £10 per extra bomb I drank in the half hour.
A few days later I sheepishly walked in to the hospital with £330 to donate to them. They asked how I'd done the fundraising and they'd say something to say thank you for it. I said I didn't want any credit, they insisted and my wife (who was annoyed) insisted I tell them the story. After I did, the lady taking the donation said that she agrees it best they not promote how that fundraising was done.
I watched The Hangover with my Gen Z eldest son last night. A completely alien world for him: there were no common reference points at all.
Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has been visiting the Chancellor’s constituency in Surrey - a big LD 🎯 target. He ended up pulling pints in The Star in Witley.
Ed Davey anecdote: I was at a pub quiz a few weeks back. Ed Davey featured in a picture round. Only one person out of 80-odd recognised him. It wasn't even a particularly obscure photo of him.
Could have been worse.
79 could have said "It's that f*cker from the Post Office scandal...."
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
Go you! Live dangerously!
That's nothing - sometimes when eating out, I will order "soup of the day" without asking what it is!
On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.
But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.
Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?
But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
The boffin I am talking of - absolutely a world expert - has become convinced through his research that there is a further deeper “spiritual reality” and that psychedelics genuinely allow us to access it. They take off the blinkers, they remove the filters
They are also weirdly good for curing things like depression and addiction - no one knows why - tho of course they can also be very dangerous
So if you’re of a spiritual bent take some solace in that. The actual scientists are taking it seriously - and are open to a spiritual explanation
I wouldn't say I'm spiritual, so much as curious/hopeful. There's nothing like having a brush with Cancer (as I did in 2022) to make you think about life, death and everything in between.
Gosh, we've got deep on PB this afternoon! Time to get back to Brexit, Sunak and AV.
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
Go you! Live dangerously!
That's nothing - sometimes when eating out, I will order "soup of the day" without asking what it is!
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
Perhaps “Phil” will tell me how to spend the extra 25p each week I will receive with my State Pension when I reach the age of 80. Do tell him that 8% or 10% of little is still very little.
Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?
But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
The boffin I am talking of - absolutely a world expert - has become convinced through his research that there is a further deeper “spiritual reality” and that psychedelics genuinely allow us to access it. They take off the blinkers, they remove the filters
They are also weirdly good for curing things like depression and addiction - no one knows why - tho of course they can also be very dangerous
So if you’re of a spiritual bent take some solace in that. The actual scientists are taking it seriously - and are open to a spiritual explanation
Although its possible that he has just fallen for the experience and is attributing more to it than is there. Without going all fresher at Uni and asking if what I see as red is that same for everyone else, as a hard core materialist scientist who is sadly completely non-spiritual, I cannot get away from the idea that the mind makes sense of the sensory inputs it gets to generate the world we experience. Drugs like this are interfering with how that interpretation occurs, with the results you know so well. I suspect if you go into it with a bent for spirituality, that will help your outcome.
I often ask why I have never seen a ghost when so many people have. I may just have never been in the right place right time. But it may be because I don't believe in ghosts... A believer is way more likely to ascribe something on the edge of the senses as a ghost than I ever would. I see a barn owl, you see a little old lady in a white shawl crossing the road (genuine occurence for me and my true believer Aussie aunt).
Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?
But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
The boffin I am talking of - absolutely a world expert - has become convinced through his research that there is a further deeper “spiritual reality” and that psychedelics genuinely allow us to access it. They take off the blinkers, they remove the filters
They are also weirdly good for curing things like depression and addiction - no one knows why - tho of course they can also be very dangerous
So if you’re of a spiritual bent take some solace in that. The actual scientists are taking it seriously - and are open to a spiritual explanation
Alternatively, in your dying moments you find yourself thinking, "how boring; I already did this".
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
And yet Leon, who has done them all, is still a user.
On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.
But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.
Unemployment is basically as low as its been in the past 50 years, very little room to fall further.
What is a big problem is the economically inactive. That would also take a long time to solve, but requires a healthier population, increased investment in health and public health.
The trick with showing trends you want to see is to carefully pick the start year.
In this case I think the graph is showing the UK rebounding from a pandemic low. The right hand of a V curve. Unlike the UK, business investment in the EU remained mostly steady through the pandemic, for whatever reason.
There is other evidence showing UK business investment being negatively impacted since the referendum.
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
Go you! Live dangerously!
That's nothing - sometimes when eating out, I will order "soup of the day" without asking what it is!
On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.
But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.
However, the 4p NI cut is actually real money in people's pocket that they will feel. As long as it isn't funded with extra borrowing then they will get away with it.
I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory
I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money
Reducing taxes now is dumb, but if it has to be done for electoral reasons, reducing tax for those who are economically active is clearly more sensible than just giving a bung to the retired and others living on unearned income. Hunt is trying to square the circle between what his party wants for electoral reasons and what is economically sensible.
So it’s dumb and not targeting potential Tory voters so it’s doubly dumb
Think of the poor pensioners , that is 2 NI cuts and nothing for the pensioners. Tories are on a death wish.
Pensioners are getting a state pension rise of 8.5% in April, more than inflation over the previous year. In 2023, they received a 10.1% rise in a year when everyone else saw their incomes rise by 5.8%, so a 4% pay cut in real terms.
If pensioners were in their 20s they would be being excoriated by the right-wing press for sponging off the rest of the country.
Not when they are working twice as hard as the lazy youngsters who think they should get everything handed to them on a plate. Get out of their beds in teh morning and get working and less whining like spoilt babies.
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?
But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
The boffin I am talking of - absolutely a world expert - has become convinced through his research that there is a further deeper “spiritual reality” and that psychedelics genuinely allow us to access it. They take off the blinkers, they remove the filters
They are also weirdly good for curing things like depression and addiction - no one knows why - tho of course they can also be very dangerous
So if you’re of a spiritual bent take some solace in that. The actual scientists are taking it seriously - and are open to a spiritual explanation
Alternatively, in your dying moments you find yourself thinking, "how boring; I already did this".
I’m sure death will be an awfully big adventure
I have a very good old friend dying right now. Probably got a few weeks at most. Liver failure leading to massive organ failure - he’s a huge boozer and smoker. No exercise. Poor diet
He’s also a brilliantly funny guy and I had some of my best adventures with him - one of them a gazette official road trip around Vietnam where we had to invent a floating red light distract and ended up with terrible opium habits and a couple of “souvenir girlfriends”
When I heard the news - about 3 days ago - I was obviously distressed. But his partner said “don’t be too sad. He said to me the other day ‘ive had a wonderful life and ive lived it entirely on my own terms, I don’t regret a thing’
Which was and is quite heartening. I hope I show the same sanguine acceptance
Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?
But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
The boffin I am talking of - absolutely a world expert - has become convinced through his research that there is a further deeper “spiritual reality” and that psychedelics genuinely allow us to access it. They take off the blinkers, they remove the filters
They are also weirdly good for curing things like depression and addiction - no one knows why - tho of course they can also be very dangerous
So if you’re of a spiritual bent take some solace in that. The actual scientists are taking it seriously - and are open to a spiritual explanation
Although its possible that he has just fallen for the experience and is attributing more to it than is there. Without going all fresher at Uni and asking if what I see as red is that same for everyone else, as a hard core materialist scientist who is sadly completely non-spiritual, I cannot get away from the idea that the mind makes sense of the sensory inputs it gets to generate the world we experience. Drugs like this are interfering with how that interpretation occurs, with the results you know so well. I suspect if you go into it with a bent for spirituality, that will help your outcome.
I often ask why I have never seen a ghost when so many people have. I may just have never been in the right place right time. But it may be because I don't believe in ghosts... A believer is way more likely to ascribe something on the edge of the senses as a ghost than I ever would. I see a barn owl, you see a little old lady in a white shawl crossing the road (genuine occurence for me and my true believer Aussie aunt).
On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.
But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.
However, the 4p NI cut is actually real money in people's pocket that they will feel. As long as it isn't funded with extra borrowing then they will get away with it.
It does make a certain amount of sense - but since they introduced it in the first place, it's all a bit Grand Old Duke.
In other news my old job has been filled by one of the existing team members, it's the first director level post held by a woman under 40 for this part of the business so really happy she got it. She was part of my drive to recruit more women into junior and mid level roles 5 years ago on the basis that they would then be able to go on to get senior and director level roles later in their careers. Happily it seems to have played out that way. When I took up the job as lead for that division we had 12 men and 2 women, when I left it was 17 men and 13 women with most of the women hired into junior and mid level roles but 5 years later one of them becomes unit director and two of them are team leads.
It never made sense to me to exclude 50% of the population's skillset and I think I was proved right despite opposition from a lot of people suggesting if I hired women into just junior and mid level roles it would be a bad look for the business. I pointed out at the time that the women who got the jobs wouldn't give any fucks about it and would prefer to have the opportunity rather than not qualify for senior roles due to lack of experience at mid level but apparently hiring under experienced women and letting them struggle in senior roles and quit was preferable to the potential for embarrassment of my hiring policy.
Anyway, just thought it was a positive update and hopefully the company won't backslide on it and pull the ladder up again by shit canning junior and mid level hiring.
Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only
After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only
Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
Today's The Rest is Entertainment podcast, helmed by Richard Osman and Marina Hyde, talks about GB News. Their highest rated show last week, in terms of viewership, was one of Farage's 7pm slots, with, I think off the top of my head, 126,000 viewers.
A repeat of Midsomer Murders or something on some obscure channel was getting 200k+ viewers.
But beyond those raw, very low, numbers, they both agree that that channel's reach is huge. Hyde puts that down to clips circulating on social media, Osman leans more towards an incestuous media giving them excess column inches.
Whatever you think, it's certainly punching above its weight. Hyde said it aims to be the biggest news channel by 2028 and she thinks they'll get there - albeit the news channels have low numbers.
Presumably the deep-pocketed citizens of nowhere who fund it see benefits in its influence and are happy to splurge the cash to keep the channel running in the expectation it will help deliver a more unequal, right-wing UK with poor public services, increased inequality and lax regulation in a wide range of areas. It's simply right-wing propaganda.
The podcast looked at TV viewership in the UK more generally - last week 97% of the top 100 viewed programmes (on the overnight figs, not including catch up on streaming) were on BBC1 or ITV1. 67% of TV is consumed as its broadcast live. Which, Osman said, gives lie to the notion that everyone just streams everything now and live linear TV is dead - although its declining there's life in the old dog yet.
Can't remember the top three programmes but it was something like Antiques Roadshow, Midsomer Murders and Death in Paradise.
EastEnders is down to 2.something million people watching it live, Corrie on 3.something million. So the soaps are struggling.
Local news, across the country in total, gets massive viewing figures.
As Osman says, if you want to understand the UK, understand that it isn't people streaming Succession, it's people watching the One Show live on BBC1. It's a deeply unfashionable Britain that simply doesn't catch the attention of the chattering classes.
An interesting episode, worth a listen.
BBC presenter suggest BBC viewers represent Britain. That's a touch MRDA is it not?
Britain is a diverse country, if you want to understand Britain you need to understand that. There is no single representative of what Britain looks like?
What percentage of the UK sits and watches the One Show live? 70%? 50%+1? Or more like 10%?
Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only
After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only
Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
Today's The Rest is Entertainment podcast, helmed by Richard Osman and Marina Hyde, talks about GB News. Their highest rated show last week, in terms of viewership, was one of Farage's 7pm slots, with, I think off the top of my head, 126,000 viewers.
A repeat of Midsomer Murders or something on some obscure channel was getting 200k+ viewers.
But beyond those raw, very low, numbers, they both agree that that channel's reach is huge. Hyde puts that down to clips circulating on social media, Osman leans more towards an incestuous media giving them excess column inches.
Whatever you think, it's certainly punching above its weight. Hyde said it aims to be the biggest news channel by 2028 and she thinks they'll get there - albeit the news channels have low numbers.
Presumably the deep-pocketed citizens of nowhere who fund it see benefits in its influence and are happy to splurge the cash to keep the channel running in the expectation it will help deliver a more unequal, right-wing UK with poor public services, increased inequality and lax regulation in a wide range of areas. It's simply right-wing propaganda.
The podcast looked at TV viewership in the UK more generally - last week 97% of the top 100 viewed programmes (on the overnight figs, not including catch up on streaming) were on BBC1 or ITV1. 67% of TV is consumed as its broadcast live. Which, Osman said, gives lie to the notion that everyone just streams everything now and live linear TV is dead - although its declining there's life in the old dog yet.
Can't remember the top three programmes but it was something like Antiques Roadshow, Midsomer Murders and Death in Paradise.
EastEnders is down to 2.something million people watching it live, Corrie on 3.something million. So the soaps are struggling.
Local news, across the country in total, gets massive viewing figures.
As Osman says, if you want to understand the UK, understand that it isn't people streaming Succession, it's people watching the One Show live on BBC1. It's a deeply unfashionable Britain that simply doesn't catch the attention of the chattering classes.
An interesting episode, worth a listen.
I think its quite hard for people who are fully into streaming their TV that others (and typically older viewers) don't so this, and do still look to see 'what's on now?'. I tend to do it myself although we will stream stuff too and use it to watch stuff, as with a 1 year old, getting to watch an hours TV must be done when he is in bed. My parents don't have access to streaming, but do use Sky+ still.
Its not unlike a certain user banging on about no longer needing cash. Live TV is still useful to many many people.
Worth noting too that live TV is particularly watched by older folk, or in other words voters.
On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.
But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.
Unemployment is basically as low as its been in the past 50 years, very little room to fall further.
What is a big problem is the economically inactive. That would also take a long time to solve, but requires a healthier population, increased investment in health and public health.
Or it requires making work pay by addressing the draconianly high real tax rates people face if they move from benefits to work so too many don't bother.
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
I did my PhD with someone studying polydrug users. He showed me this great research paper where they asked a bunch of polydrug users how good different drugs were (+ also sex, for comparison).
They should show the results to kids in school. Basically, a spliff or a bonk are better than nearly anything. Alcohol came out quite well. Sniffing glue, which is one of the most dangerous drugs, rated worse than chocolate.
Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only
After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only
Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
Today's The Rest is Entertainment podcast, helmed by Richard Osman and Marina Hyde, talks about GB News. Their highest rated show last week, in terms of viewership, was one of Farage's 7pm slots, with, I think off the top of my head, 126,000 viewers.
A repeat of Midsomer Murders or something on some obscure channel was getting 200k+ viewers.
But beyond those raw, very low, numbers, they both agree that that channel's reach is huge. Hyde puts that down to clips circulating on social media, Osman leans more towards an incestuous media giving them excess column inches.
Whatever you think, it's certainly punching above its weight. Hyde said it aims to be the biggest news channel by 2028 and she thinks they'll get there - albeit the news channels have low numbers.
Presumably the deep-pocketed citizens of nowhere who fund it see benefits in its influence and are happy to splurge the cash to keep the channel running in the expectation it will help deliver a more unequal, right-wing UK with poor public services, increased inequality and lax regulation in a wide range of areas. It's simply right-wing propaganda.
The podcast looked at TV viewership in the UK more generally - last week 97% of the top 100 viewed programmes (on the overnight figs, not including catch up on streaming) were on BBC1 or ITV1. 67% of TV is consumed as its broadcast live. Which, Osman said, gives lie to the notion that everyone just streams everything now and live linear TV is dead - although its declining there's life in the old dog yet.
Can't remember the top three programmes but it was something like Antiques Roadshow, Midsomer Murders and Death in Paradise.
EastEnders is down to 2.something million people watching it live, Corrie on 3.something million. So the soaps are struggling.
Local news, across the country in total, gets massive viewing figures.
As Osman says, if you want to understand the UK, understand that it isn't people streaming Succession, it's people watching the One Show live on BBC1. It's a deeply unfashionable Britain that simply doesn't catch the attention of the chattering classes.
An interesting episode, worth a listen.
I think its quite hard for people who are fully into streaming their TV that others (and typically older viewers) don't so this, and do still look to see 'what's on now?'. I tend to do it myself although we will stream stuff too and use it to watch stuff, as with a 1 year old, getting to watch an hours TV must be done when he is in bed. My parents don't have access to streaming, but do use Sky+ still.
Its not unlike a certain user banging on about no longer needing cash. Live TV is still useful to many many people.
Worth noting too that live TV is particularly watched by older folk, or in other words voters.
The problem is that young people become voters as they get older.
They don't start watching live TV as they get older.
Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
Couldn't disagree more.
Cutting NI is the right thing to do. Cutting the burden of taxes on people who actually work for a living is the right thing to do.
If anyone's upset they're not covered by the cut on taking jobs, maybe they should start by going out and getting a job then?
Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
Politically a mistake, maybe, but economically it's far better than a 1p income tax cut. Giving working age people a 2p tax cut on working incomes will have a significantly better multiplier than 1p cut for all classes of income. Basically, it's much less likely to end up in some low yield savings bond.
Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only
After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only
Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
All broadcast TV is dying. In a few years the switch off will begin. It will all go online.
Hopefully they can fix the lag problem that afflicts all ‘live’ sports online: typically 90-120 minutes behind real time. Awful for bettors and rather useless when someone I in the pub has the Live Scores app
Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only
After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only
Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
All broadcast TV is dying. In a few years the switch off will begin. It will all go online.
Hopefully they can fix the lag problem that afflicts all ‘live’ sports online: typically 90-120 minutes behind real time. Awful for bettors and rather useless when someone I in the pub has the Live Scores app
On topic, there is an angle here for the Tories that national insurance cuts > promote employment > promote growth > promote more funds for public services. And they're doing it in a balanced way within the fiscal rules.
But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.
Unemployment is basically as low as its been in the past 50 years, very little room to fall further.
What is a big problem is the economically inactive. That would also take a long time to solve, but requires a healthier population, increased investment in health and public health.
Or it requires making work pay by addressing the draconianly high real tax rates people face if they move from benefits to work so too many don't bother.
I think we end up with a statement that a lot of people are supposedly economically inactive without a clue as to why that is the case and the reason behind it
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
Politically a mistake, maybe, but economically it's far better than a 1p income tax cut. Giving working age people a 2p tax cut on working incomes will have a significantly better multiplier than 1p cut for all classes of income. Basically, it's much less likely to end up in some low yield savings bond.
If the Government really cared about the economy and incomes for your average worker, it would unfreeze the thresholds and hike taxation on assets as well. But it doesn't.
Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only
After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only
Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
Today's The Rest is Entertainment podcast, helmed by Richard Osman and Marina Hyde, talks about GB News. Their highest rated show last week, in terms of viewership, was one of Farage's 7pm slots, with, I think off the top of my head, 126,000 viewers.
A repeat of Midsomer Murders or something on some obscure channel was getting 200k+ viewers.
But beyond those raw, very low, numbers, they both agree that that channel's reach is huge. Hyde puts that down to clips circulating on social media, Osman leans more towards an incestuous media giving them excess column inches.
Whatever you think, it's certainly punching above its weight. Hyde said it aims to be the biggest news channel by 2028 and she thinks they'll get there - albeit the news channels have low numbers.
Presumably the deep-pocketed citizens of nowhere who fund it see benefits in its influence and are happy to splurge the cash to keep the channel running in the expectation it will help deliver a more unequal, right-wing UK with poor public services, increased inequality and lax regulation in a wide range of areas. It's simply right-wing propaganda.
The podcast looked at TV viewership in the UK more generally - last week 97% of the top 100 viewed programmes (on the overnight figs, not including catch up on streaming) were on BBC1 or ITV1. 67% of TV is consumed as its broadcast live. Which, Osman said, gives lie to the notion that everyone just streams everything now and live linear TV is dead - although its declining there's life in the old dog yet.
Can't remember the top three programmes but it was something like Antiques Roadshow, Midsomer Murders and Death in Paradise.
EastEnders is down to 2.something million people watching it live, Corrie on 3.something million. So the soaps are struggling.
Local news, across the country in total, gets massive viewing figures.
As Osman says, if you want to understand the UK, understand that it isn't people streaming Succession, it's people watching the One Show live on BBC1. It's a deeply unfashionable Britain that simply doesn't catch the attention of the chattering classes.
An interesting episode, worth a listen.
In fairness that’s a poor example because a bang average episode of the One Show is more interesting than Succession, which is one of the most boring shows ever made.
But, generally, point taken. I watch mostly cable but that’s because I watch mostly sport: useless online because it’s so far behind real time.
Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
Couldn't disagree more.
Cutting NI is the right thing to do. Cutting the burden of taxes on people who actually work for a living is the right thing to do.
If anyone's upset they're not covered by the cut on taking jobs, maybe they should start by going out and getting a job then?
Hear, hear. It's not going to help me but it's definitely better than an ICT cut. I doubt it's the right thing to do with borrowing and debt repayments so high, and public services in such a dire state.
Does anyone know how much a 1p cut in NI costs the Treasury versus a 1p cut in ICT?
Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
Politically a mistake, maybe, but economically it's far better than a 1p income tax cut. Giving working age people a 2p tax cut on working incomes will have a significantly better multiplier than 1p cut for all classes of income. Basically, it's much less likely to end up in some low yield savings bond.
If the Government really cared about the economy and incomes for your average worker, it would unfreeze the thresholds and hike taxation on assets as well. But it doesn't.
By keeping thresholds frozen and cutting NI it is an effective transfer of wealth from non-working people to working people. Unfreezing the thresholds would benefit idle income like pensions, rent and dividends. NI is specifically a tax on work, it is the most pernicious tax we have and setting the trend for cutting it rather than income tax is a win for working people. In an ideal world we would continue this trend until NI is entirely eliminated, funnel threshold freezes into cutting NI for the next decade and equalise tax rates for income from work and income from asset sweating.
Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only
After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only
Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
Today's The Rest is Entertainment podcast, helmed by Richard Osman and Marina Hyde, talks about GB News. Their highest rated show last week, in terms of viewership, was one of Farage's 7pm slots, with, I think off the top of my head, 126,000 viewers.
A repeat of Midsomer Murders or something on some obscure channel was getting 200k+ viewers.
But beyond those raw, very low, numbers, they both agree that that channel's reach is huge. Hyde puts that down to clips circulating on social media, Osman leans more towards an incestuous media giving them excess column inches.
Whatever you think, it's certainly punching above its weight. Hyde said it aims to be the biggest news channel by 2028 and she thinks they'll get there - albeit the news channels have low numbers.
Presumably the deep-pocketed citizens of nowhere who fund it see benefits in its influence and are happy to splurge the cash to keep the channel running in the expectation it will help deliver a more unequal, right-wing UK with poor public services, increased inequality and lax regulation in a wide range of areas. It's simply right-wing propaganda.
The podcast looked at TV viewership in the UK more generally - last week 97% of the top 100 viewed programmes (on the overnight figs, not including catch up on streaming) were on BBC1 or ITV1. 67% of TV is consumed as its broadcast live. Which, Osman said, gives lie to the notion that everyone just streams everything now and live linear TV is dead - although its declining there's life in the old dog yet.
Can't remember the top three programmes but it was something like Antiques Roadshow, Midsomer Murders and Death in Paradise.
EastEnders is down to 2.something million people watching it live, Corrie on 3.something million. So the soaps are struggling.
Local news, across the country in total, gets massive viewing figures.
As Osman says, if you want to understand the UK, understand that it isn't people streaming Succession, it's people watching the One Show live on BBC1. It's a deeply unfashionable Britain that simply doesn't catch the attention of the chattering classes.
An interesting episode, worth a listen.
I think its quite hard for people who are fully into streaming their TV that others (and typically older viewers) don't so this, and do still look to see 'what's on now?'. I tend to do it myself although we will stream stuff too and use it to watch stuff, as with a 1 year old, getting to watch an hours TV must be done when he is in bed. My parents don't have access to streaming, but do use Sky+ still.
Its not unlike a certain user banging on about no longer needing cash. Live TV is still useful to many many people.
Hmm. “Banging on”. Challenge for you: when did I last bring it up? These days everyone else brings it up and I (occasionally) play ball. It’s almost as if PBers love talking about it!! Note @SandyRentool bringing it up AGAIN above!!
Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
Couldn't disagree more.
Cutting NI is the right thing to do. Cutting the burden of taxes on people who actually work for a living is the right thing to do.
If anyone's upset they're not covered by the cut on taking jobs, maybe they should start by going out and getting a job then?
Hear, hear. It's not going to help me but it's definitely better than an ICT cut. I doubt it's the right thing to do with borrowing and debt repayments so high, and public services in such a dire state.
Does anyone know how much a 1p cut in NI costs the Treasury versus a 1p cut in ICT?
About £2bn per penny. This will cost ~£10bn per year vs 2p off the basic rate of income tax at ~£14bn per year.
Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only
After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only
Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
All broadcast TV is dying. In a few years the switch off will begin. It will all go online.
Hopefully they can fix the lag problem that afflicts all ‘live’ sports online: typically 90-120 minutes behind real time. Awful for bettors and rather useless when someone I in the pub has the Live Scores app
Macron apparently arguing for a European nuclear deterrent, without realising it. But otherwise, quite correct.
Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:
"Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin. If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us." https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1765030569014853696
Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
Couldn't disagree more.
Cutting NI is the right thing to do. Cutting the burden of taxes on people who actually work for a living is the right thing to do.
If anyone's upset they're not covered by the cut on taking jobs, maybe they should start by going out and getting a job then?
Hear, hear. It's not going to help me but it's definitely better than an ICT cut. I doubt it's the right thing to do with borrowing and debt repayments so high, and public services in such a dire state.
Does anyone know how much a 1p cut in NI costs the Treasury versus a 1p cut in ICT?
About £2bn per penny. This will cost ~£10bn per year vs 2p off the basic rate of income tax at ~£14bn per year.
Does that account for the public sector pay effect ? A cut in NI directly benefits employees on low incomes more than a 1p cut in tax - and arguably the government should see some slight benefit in the next year's pay negotiations, too.
Macron apparently arguing for a European nuclear deterrent, without realising it. But otherwise, quite correct.
Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:
"Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin. If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us." https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1765030569014853696
Not entirely clear what he means there, but I suspect it's a case of lost in translation.
He's become much more hawkish recently, which is a concern, from my point of view, as he was an important counterweight to the other approach, creating something more like a moderate consensus on what to do with Ukraine. I found myself agreeing with part of Simin Jenkins' piece this morming, reminding the West that it has to think carefully about the calculus of its interests.
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
Bollox GIN...
I thought it was made from Juniper berries?
Not going by GIN description, but a very pleasant summer libation
Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
Couldn't disagree more.
Cutting NI is the right thing to do. Cutting the burden of taxes on people who actually work for a living is the right thing to do.
If anyone's upset they're not covered by the cut on taking jobs, maybe they should start by going out and getting a job then?
Hear, hear. It's not going to help me but it's definitely better than an ICT cut. I doubt it's the right thing to do with borrowing and debt repayments so high, and public services in such a dire state.
Does anyone know how much a 1p cut in NI costs the Treasury versus a 1p cut in ICT?
About £2bn per penny. This will cost ~£10bn per year vs 2p off the basic rate of income tax at ~£14bn per year.
Does that account for the public sector pay effect ? A cut in NI directly benefits employees on low incomes more than a 1p cut in tax - and arguably the government should see some slight benefit in the next year's pay negotiations, too.
Ever since Truss (from memory) increased the starting point of NI to the same as income tax it doesn’t make that much difference but does better benefit people whose income is not consistent week on werk
Macron apparently arguing for a European nuclear deterrent, without realising it. But otherwise, quite correct.
Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:
"Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin. If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us." https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1765030569014853696
I think it's more of a criticism of Scholz.
Macron asks, "Is it our war or not?" which is a response to Scholz's arm's length approach.
Leftwing extremists have claimed responsibility for a dawn arson attack on an electricity pylon at the Tesla car factory in Berlin, which bosses said would halt production until the end of the week.
Macron apparently arguing for a European nuclear deterrent, without realising it. But otherwise, quite correct.
Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:
"Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin. If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us." https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1765030569014853696
Not entirely clear what he means there, but I suspect it's a case of lost in translation.
He's become much more hawkish recently, which is a concern, from my point of view, as he was an important counterweight to the other approach, creating something more like a moderate consensus on what to do with Ukraine. I found myself agreeing with part of Simin Jenkins' piece this morming, reminding the West that it has to think carefully about the calculus of its interests.
Thing is, the calculus of our interests needs to reflect what we’ve seen in the last 2 years in the behaviour of Russia, rather than a theoretical model of how it will respond to Western actions.
Every time we have increased the supply of weapons and Ukraine has taken the initiative, Russia has gone more defensive, dialled down the bloodcurdling threats and become more introspective. Every time we’ve visibly wavered or starved Ukraine of support Russia has become more cocky, more threatening and started setting its sights further afield. It seems little coincidence it’s now threatening Moldova just as it starts to get the whip hand in the war.
Deterrence is important with a bully and Russia’s war aims are graphically reinforced by their officials almost daily. They won’t stop until they’ve restored the old Russian empire in full, or someone stops them.
Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
Politically a mistake, maybe, but economically it's far better than a 1p income tax cut. Giving working age people a 2p tax cut on working incomes will have a significantly better multiplier than 1p cut for all classes of income. Basically, it's much less likely to end up in some low yield savings bond.
If the Government really cared about the economy and incomes for your average worker, it would unfreeze the thresholds and hike taxation on assets as well. But it doesn't.
By keeping thresholds frozen and cutting NI it is an effective transfer of wealth from non-working people to working people. Unfreezing the thresholds would benefit idle income like pensions, rent and dividends. NI is specifically a tax on work, it is the most pernicious tax we have and setting the trend for cutting it rather than income tax is a win for working people. In an ideal world we would continue this trend until NI is entirely eliminated, funnel threshold freezes into cutting NI for the next decade and equalise tax rates for income from work and income from asset sweating.
Speaking as a pensioner, who this week has had 25p per week ( taxable of course) added to his pension I absolutely support Hunt effectively taking 4p off employee NI, not least because pensioners received a 10.1% increase last year and in April a further 8.5% increase and that is the triple lock which is a lot more than 4p off most peoples NI
Indeed it needs to be merged with income tax asap for fairness
Macron apparently arguing for a European nuclear deterrent, without realising it. But otherwise, quite correct.
Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:
"Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin. If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us." https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1765030569014853696
I think it's more of a criticism of Scholz.
Macron asks, "Is it our war or not?" which is a response to Scholz's arm's length approach.
I'd gladly sell Trident to the EU if they want a nuclear deterrent. I wanted them to have one of our aircraft carriers too.
Give them all the expensive and ultimately worthless defence baubles they want to dangle their EU flag off of, and let us have a proper army, navy, airforce, and suite of tactical nuclear options. Less glamorous, more useful.
Most Chancellors keep something back as a show stopper but the 2p NI reduction has been so leaked what is it ?
And it will not be a May GE, Sunak announces that and most everyone in the media is calling it for the Autumn with labour supportes the ones promoting May, so they can say Sunak is running scared ( which he may well be)
Labour are such favourites for the next government it will be interesting to see just how confidence rises over the summer, which of course Sunak will claim for his party
Another NI cut, from a narrow political POV, is a mistake. If the Treasury really thinks it can't justify the affordability of a 2p income tax cut, it would still be better off cutting it by a penny. Politically disengaged voters have a better grasp of income tax than NI, and the Tory core vote of better off olds would share the benefit.
Politically a mistake, maybe, but economically it's far better than a 1p income tax cut. Giving working age people a 2p tax cut on working incomes will have a significantly better multiplier than 1p cut for all classes of income. Basically, it's much less likely to end up in some low yield savings bond.
If the Government really cared about the economy and incomes for your average worker, it would unfreeze the thresholds and hike taxation on assets as well. But it doesn't.
By keeping thresholds frozen and cutting NI it is an effective transfer of wealth from non-working people to working people. Unfreezing the thresholds would benefit idle income like pensions, rent and dividends. NI is specifically a tax on work, it is the most pernicious tax we have and setting the trend for cutting it rather than income tax is a win for working people. In an ideal world we would continue this trend until NI is entirely eliminated, funnel threshold freezes into cutting NI for the next decade and equalise tax rates for income from work and income from asset sweating.
Speaking as a pensioner, who this week has had 25p per week ( taxable of course) added to his pension I absolutely support Hunt effectively taking 4p off employee NI, not least because pensioners received a 10.1% increase last year and in April a further 8.5% increase and that is the triple lock which is a lot more than 4p off most peoples NI
Indeed it needs to be merged with income tax asap for fairness
I think that Hunt is pointing the way to a slow phase out of NI - use fiscal drag to increase income tax receipts, and abolish NI.
God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it
But not for a few years
I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school), I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
You get credit for acknowledging that alcohol is a drug, something a lot of "Drugs are bad mmmm'kay" people don't.
Alcohol is probably the worst drug there is (outside of opioids, anyway)
Bollox GIN...
I thought it was made from Juniper berries?
Not going by GIN description, but a very pleasant summer libation
Bollox gin? Each to their own taste!
Though perhaps MORE pleasant a libation (summer, fall, winter, spring) than, say, dingleberry wine.
Most Chancellors keep something back as a show stopper but the 2p NI reduction has been so leaked what is it ?
And it will not be a May GE, Sunak announces that and most everyone in the media is calling it for the Autumn with labour supportes the ones promoting May, so they can say Sunak is running scared ( which he may well be)
Labour are such favourites for the next government it will be interesting to see just how confidence rises over the summer, which of course Sunak will claim for his party
I am old enough to remember when leaking the budget was a resigning matter.
I am a high income earner and I am fine with my taxes and would understand if I got taxed more given the plight of many of my compatriots and our shared services. I have ZERO interest in tax cuts. For me patriotism is not flags and pint sized champagne. It is investing in our shared destiny. 🤷
People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?
If Hunt does use cancellation of non dom status as part of the money raised for the NI cut, then Starmer and Reeves have only about 1 billion left from VAT on private school fees left
It will require them to review their tax and spend policy
Most Chancellors keep something back as a show stopper but the 2p NI reduction has been so leaked what is it ?
And it will not be a May GE, Sunak announces that and most everyone in the media is calling it for the Autumn with labour supportes the ones promoting May, so they can say Sunak is running scared ( which he may well be)
Labour are such favourites for the next government it will be interesting to see just how confidence rises over the summer, which of course Sunak will claim for his party
I am old enough to remember when leaking the budget was a resigning matter.
When did any chancellor resign after leaking budgets as it has gone on for decades
I am a high income earner and I am fine with my taxes and would understand if I got taxed more given the plight of many of my compatriots and our shared services. I have ZERO interest in tax cuts. For me patriotism is not flags and pint sized champagne. It is investing in our shared destiny. 🤷
You can volunteer to pay additional tax if you so wish
Most Chancellors keep something back as a show stopper but the 2p NI reduction has been so leaked what is it ?
And it will not be a May GE, Sunak announces that and most everyone in the media is calling it for the Autumn with labour supportes the ones promoting May, so they can say Sunak is running scared ( which he may well be)
Labour are such favourites for the next government it will be interesting to see just how confidence rises over the summer, which of course Sunak will claim for his party
I am old enough to remember when leaking the budget was a resigning matter.
When did any chancellor resign after leaking budgets as it has gone on for decades
People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?
If Hunt does use cancellation of non dom status as part of the money raised for the NI cut, then Starmer and Reeves have only about 1 billion left from VAT on private school fees left
It will require them to review their tax and spend policy
That’s why they shouldn’t haven’t ruled out tax increases on the highest earners . The Tories seem intent on trashing public services to offer election bribes .
I am a high income earner and I am fine with my taxes and would understand if I got taxed more given the plight of many of my compatriots and our shared services. I have ZERO interest in tax cuts. For me patriotism is not flags and pint sized champagne. It is investing in our shared destiny. 🤷
You can volunteer to pay additional tax if you so wish
You can’t actually. Not possible to volunteer a higher tax liability.
I am a high income earner and I am fine with my taxes and would understand if I got taxed more given the plight of many of my compatriots and our shared services. I have ZERO interest in tax cuts. For me patriotism is not flags and pint sized champagne. It is investing in our shared destiny. 🤷
You can volunteer to pay additional tax if you so wish
I don’t want to pay more tax but I would prefer to pay tax at the rates I currently pay and get decent services rather than paying less tax while watching more services fall apart
People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?
If Hunt does use cancellation of non dom status as part of the money raised for the NI cut, then Starmer and Reeves have only about 1 billion left from VAT on private school fees left
It will require them to review their tax and spend policy
I think Reeves will probably keep the tax cuts. Too electorally difficult not to. Which means no money left for even basic maintenance of public infrastructure
People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?
If Hunt does use cancellation of non dom status as part of the money raised for the NI cut, then Starmer and Reeves have only about 1 billion left from VAT on private school fees left
It will require them to review their tax and spend policy
That’s why they shouldn’t haven’t ruled out tax increases on the highest earners . The Tories seem intent on trashing public services to offer election bribes .
I really cannot understand why Labour haven't promised a wealth tax
Indeed a higher rare tax band of 50% on £250,000 pa income including investments
Leaving aside how hateful and ridiculous that is, I question what it is even worth to the target audience. Who is it impressing who was not on board with the message? Is it worth potentially getting arrested for making death threats to politicians when you could just have written 'Tory scum' instead?
People do realise the parlous state of public finances mean any tax cut will be strictly temporary - a gimmick even?
If Hunt does use cancellation of non dom status as part of the money raised for the NI cut, then Starmer and Reeves have only about 1 billion left from VAT on private school fees left
It will require them to review their tax and spend policy
That’s why they shouldn’t haven’t ruled out tax increases on the highest earners . The Tories seem intent on trashing public services to offer election bribes .
I really cannot understand why Labour haven't promised a wealth tax
Indeed a higher rare tax band of 50% on £250,000 pa income including investments
Maybe it will be a tax band of 50% on more than £100,000pa???
Most Chancellors keep something back as a show stopper but the 2p NI reduction has been so leaked what is it ?
And it will not be a May GE, Sunak announces that and most everyone in the media is calling it for the Autumn with labour supportes the ones promoting May, so they can say Sunak is running scared ( which he may well be)
Labour are such favourites for the next government it will be interesting to see just how confidence rises over the summer, which of course Sunak will claim for his party
I am old enough to remember when leaking the budget was a resigning matter.
When did any chancellor resign after leaking budgets as it has gone on for decades
In the modern world, a chancellor not leaking the critical bits of the budget would be attacked viciously in the commentariat.
If nothing else, otherwise on budget day, the talking heads would be required to understand economics and the economy, in order to comment on it.
Comments
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/private-investment
The original superdeduction was implemented to stop people holding back spending until the CT rate rise to 25%. IN that I think it succeeded. Full expensing - on paper less generous but combined with 25% CT the same value - has not noticeably impacted most large businesses' capex plans yet. I hope it will do - I am in favour of the measure although sceptical about how big an impact it will have, especially as many of the big spenders quickly run into tax losses if they use all their CAs.
Supercharging full expensing by adding a superdeduction and making that a qualifying refundable tax credit would I think have a much bigger effect, but that would be more expensive.
79 could have said "It's that f*cker from the Post Office scandal...."
But, I don't see much sign of them making it. Nor how long it would take to bear fruit - it won't be before the election.
Gosh, we've got deep on PB this afternoon! Time to get back to Brexit, Sunak and AV.
Do tell him that 8% or 10% of little is still very little.
I often ask why I have never seen a ghost when so many people have. I may just have never been in the right place right time. But it may be because I don't believe in ghosts... A believer is way more likely to ascribe something on the edge of the senses as a ghost than I ever would. I see a barn owl, you see a little old lady in a white shawl crossing the road (genuine occurence for me and my true believer Aussie aunt).
What is a big problem is the economically inactive. That would also take a long time to solve, but requires a healthier population, increased investment in health and public health.
117 years young.
California-born woman is the oldest person in the world
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/longevity/4507292-california-born-woman-is-the-oldest-person-in-the-world/
In this case I think the graph is showing the UK rebounding from a pandemic low. The right hand of a V curve. Unlike the UK, business investment in the EU remained mostly steady through the pandemic, for whatever reason.
There is other evidence showing UK business investment being negatively impacted since the referendum.
Our science is still young, and littered with overconfident predictions.
https://youtu.be/otJ2rXMuLno?si=xT_zT6oCx0YJL-4j&t=88
I have a very good old friend dying right now. Probably got a few weeks at most. Liver failure leading to massive organ failure - he’s a huge boozer and smoker. No exercise. Poor diet
He’s also a brilliantly funny guy and I had some of my best adventures with him - one of them a gazette official road trip around Vietnam where we had to invent a floating red light distract and ended up with terrible opium habits and a couple of “souvenir girlfriends”
When I heard the news - about 3 days ago - I was obviously distressed. But his partner said “don’t be too sad. He said to me the other day ‘ive had a wonderful life and ive lived it entirely on my own terms, I don’t regret a thing’
Which was and is quite heartening. I hope I show the same sanguine acceptance
And I think I’m right
It never made sense to me to exclude 50% of the population's skillset and I think I was proved right despite opposition from a lot of people suggesting if I hired women into just junior and mid level roles it would be a bad look for the business. I pointed out at the time that the women who got the jobs wouldn't give any fucks about it and would prefer to have the opportunity rather than not qualify for senior roles due to lack of experience at mid level but apparently hiring under experienced women and letting them struggle in senior roles and quit was preferable to the potential for embarrassment of my hiring policy.
Anyway, just thought it was a positive update and hopefully the company won't backslide on it and pull the ladder up again by shit canning junior and mid level hiring.
Britain is a diverse country, if you want to understand Britain you need to understand that. There is no single representative of what Britain looks like?
What percentage of the UK sits and watches the One Show live? 70%? 50%+1? Or more like 10%?
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7Y_Ds0go-lc
They should show the results to kids in school. Basically, a spliff or a bonk are better than nearly anything. Alcohol came out quite well. Sniffing glue, which is one of the most dangerous drugs, rated worse than chocolate.
They don't start watching live TV as they get older.
Live TV is dead, it's just a matter of time.
Cutting NI is the right thing to do. Cutting the burden of taxes on people who actually work for a living is the right thing to do.
If anyone's upset they're not covered by the cut on taking jobs, maybe they should start by going out and getting a job then?
Time to improve the diet? I recommend Zoe.
But, generally, point taken. I watch mostly cable but that’s because I watch mostly sport: useless online because it’s so far behind real time.
Does anyone know how much a 1p cut in NI costs the Treasury versus a 1p cut in ICT?
But otherwise, quite correct.
Emmanuel Macron being brutally honest in Prague today:
"Who launched the war in Ukraine? Vladimir Putin. Who threatens us, whatever we do whatever we say, with nuclear weapons? President Putin.
If every day we explain what our limits are in the face of someone who has none and launched this war, I can already tell you that the spirit of defeat is there lurking. Not amongst us."
https://twitter.com/JulienHoez/status/1765030569014853696
A cut in NI directly benefits employees on low incomes more than a 1p cut in tax - and arguably the government should see some slight benefit in the next year's pay negotiations, too.
He's become much more hawkish recently, which is a concern, from my point of view, as he was an important counterweight to the other approach, creating something more like a moderate consensus on what to do with Ukraine. I found myself agreeing with part of Simin Jenkins' piece this morming, reminding the West that it has to think carefully about the calculus of its interests.
Macron asks, "Is it our war or not?" which is a response to Scholz's arm's length approach.
That said, no one ever took MDMA and beat their wife up. So, it's all swings and roundabouts.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/mar/05/leftwing-vulkan-group-claim-responsibility-tesla-factory-pylon-arson-attack-berlin
Leftwing extremists have claimed responsibility for a dawn arson attack on an electricity pylon at the Tesla car factory in Berlin, which bosses said would halt production until the end of the week.
Every time we have increased the supply of weapons and Ukraine has taken the initiative, Russia has gone more defensive, dialled down the bloodcurdling threats and become more introspective. Every time we’ve visibly wavered or starved Ukraine of support Russia has become more cocky, more threatening and started setting its sights further afield. It seems little coincidence it’s now threatening Moldova just as it starts to get the whip hand in the war.
Deterrence is important with a bully and Russia’s war aims are graphically reinforced by their officials almost daily. They won’t stop until they’ve restored the old Russian empire in full, or someone stops them.
Vast majority of people who drink alcohol are perfectly decent.
Contrast with coke which seems to make anyone who gets hooked on that a complete and utter twat.
Indeed it needs to be merged with income tax asap for fairness
Bad. You were in Fulham?
Give them all the expensive and ultimately worthless defence baubles they want to dangle their EU flag off of, and let us have a proper army, navy, airforce, and suite of tactical nuclear options. Less glamorous, more useful.
https://twitter.com/MandyHickson/status/1764918258874949692/photo/1
and
https://twitter.com/eideticeye/status/1764720167810965645/photo/1
(F35, the northern lights, and HMS Prince of Wales)
1 How far is this BIG LOUD NI CUT just recycling the gains from the ongoing threshold freeze?
2 If the move is to lower rates but lower thresholds, doesn't that transfer tax burden to lower paid people?
3 The spending plans underpinning this are a joke, aren't they?
And it will not be a May GE, Sunak announces that and most everyone in the media is calling it for the Autumn with labour supportes the ones promoting May, so they can say Sunak is running scared ( which he may well be)
Labour are such favourites for the next government it will be interesting to see just how confidence rises over the summer, which of course Sunak will claim for his party
Though perhaps MORE pleasant a libation (summer, fall, winter, spring) than, say, dingleberry wine.
It will require them to review their tax and spend policy
It was a sensible rule.
But I lied, I am not old enough to remember.
'Die Tory scum'
Indeed a higher rare tax band of 50% on £250,000 pa income including investments
If nothing else, otherwise on budget day, the talking heads would be required to understand economics and the economy, in order to comment on it.