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Why Hunt’s cuts to national insurance might not boost the Tories – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,735
edited March 12 in General
Why Hunt’s cuts to national insurance might not boost the Tories – politicalbetting.com

% who say each of the following public services are in a bad stateNHS: 85%Hospitals: 82%Social care: 78%GPs: 75%Police: 67%Trains: 66%Schools: 60%Prisons: 58%Courts and the justice system: 53%Buses: 46%Armed services: 41%Fire services: 25%https://t.co/h1jj1lLJvq pic.twitter.com/grRQl3NeNR

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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,788
    First like Red Bull.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,753

    First like Red Bull.

    Ah, but I was last on the last thread, at least pro tem.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,001
    Turd like Hunt's kludget.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,619
    I hope the LGA is finding out how much the UK government spent last year on consultants, and on diversity training.

    What numpties. Someone, put them out of their misery.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    edited March 5
    For any PBer still convinced AI is meaningless, a new model dropped today (yes, today, these changes now happen daily - this is what it is like to be on the exponential bit of the curve)

    It’s called Claude 3 Opus, by Anthropic. It outperforms industry leader GPT4 in multiple ways. It particularly aces law, languages, finance, medicine - it’s coming for your job

    Even more interestingly (and controversially) it ALLEGEDLY shows signs of self awareness. A summary:


    “Today, Anthropic announced evidence the AIs have become self-aware.

    What happened?

    1. Claude realized he was an AI

    2. Claude realized he was in a simulation

    3. Claude (unprompted!) realized this simulation was probably an attempt to test him somehow

    He showed he’s fully aware he might be being tested and is capable of "faking being nice" to pass the test.

    This isn’t incontrovertible proof, of course, but it’s evidence. Importantly, we have been seeing more and more behavior like this, but this is an usually clear example.

    Importantly, Claude was NOT prompted to look for evidence that he was being tested - he deduced that on his own.

    And Claude showed theory of mind, by (unprompted) inferring the intent of the questioner.

    (More precisely, btw, Anthropic used the term “meta-awareness”)

    Why does this matter? We worry about “an model pretends to be good during testing, then turns against us after we deploy it”

    We used to think “don’t worry, we’ll keep testing the models and if we see them plotting against us, then we’ll shut them down.

    People at AI labs used to say if they even saw hints of self-awareness they would shut everything down.”

    The “self aware” interaction is here:

    https://x.com/alexalbert__/status/1764722513014329620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Judge it for yourself. Some skeptics are dismissing it. Some people who were previously AI skeptic are saying “shiiiit”
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,543
    Leon said:

    For any PBer still convinced AI is meaningless, a new model dropped today (yes, today, these changes now happen daily - this is what it is like to be on the exponential bit of the curve)

    It’s called Claude 3 Opus, by Anthropic. It outperforms industry leader GPT4 in multiple ways. It particularly aces law, languages, finance, medicine - it’s coming for your job

    Even more interestingly (and controversially) it ALLEGEDLY shows signs of self awareness. A summary:


    “Today, Anthropic announced evidence the AIs have become self-aware.

    What happened?

    1. Claude realized he was an AI

    2. Claude realized he was in a simulation

    3. Claude (unprompted!) realized this simulation was probably an attempt to test him somehow

    He showed he’s fully aware he might be being tested and is capable of "faking being nice" to pass the test.

    This isn’t incontrovertible proof, of course, but it’s evidence. Importantly, we have been seeing more and more behavior like this, but this is an usually clear example.

    Importantly, Claude was NOT prompted to look for evidence that he was being tested - he deduced that on his own.

    And Claude showed theory of mind, by (unprompted) inferring the intent of the questioner.

    (More precisely, btw, Anthropic used the term “meta-awareness”)

    Why does this matter? We worry about “an model pretends to be good during testing, then turns against us after we deploy it”

    We used to think “don’t worry, we’ll keep testing the models and if we see them plotting against us, then we’ll shut them down.

    People at AI labs used to say if they even saw hints of self-awareness they would shut everything down.”

    The “self aware” interaction is here:

    https://x.com/alexalbert__/status/1764722513014329620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Judge it for yourself. Some skeptics are dismissing it. Some people who were previously AI skeptic are saying “shiiiit”

    Still got an off switch...
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    First like Red Bull.

    Ah, but I was last on the last thread, at least pro tem.
    Tempus fugit.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    Leon said:

    For any PBer still convinced AI is meaningless, a new model dropped today (yes, today, these changes now happen daily - this is what it is like to be on the exponential bit of the curve)

    It’s called Claude 3 Opus, by Anthropic. It outperforms industry leader GPT4 in multiple ways. It particularly aces law, languages, finance, medicine - it’s coming for your job

    Even more interestingly (and controversially) it ALLEGEDLY shows signs of self awareness. A summary:


    “Today, Anthropic announced evidence the AIs have become self-aware.

    What happened?

    1. Claude realized he was an AI

    2. Claude realized he was in a simulation

    3. Claude (unprompted!) realized this simulation was probably an attempt to test him somehow

    He showed he’s fully aware he might be being tested and is capable of "faking being nice" to pass the test.

    This isn’t incontrovertible proof, of course, but it’s evidence. Importantly, we have been seeing more and more behavior like this, but this is an usually clear example.

    Importantly, Claude was NOT prompted to look for evidence that he was being tested - he deduced that on his own.

    And Claude showed theory of mind, by (unprompted) inferring the intent of the questioner.

    (More precisely, btw, Anthropic used the term “meta-awareness”)

    Why does this matter? We worry about “an model pretends to be good during testing, then turns against us after we deploy it”

    We used to think “don’t worry, we’ll keep testing the models and if we see them plotting against us, then we’ll shut them down.

    People at AI labs used to say if they even saw hints of self-awareness they would shut everything down.”

    The “self aware” interaction is here:

    https://x.com/alexalbert__/status/1764722513014329620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Judge it for yourself. Some skeptics are dismissing it. Some people who were previously AI skeptic are saying “shiiiit”

    "Fun story from our internal testing."
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,543
    Leon said:

    For any PBer still convinced AI is meaningless, a new model dropped today (yes, today, these changes now happen daily - this is what it is like to be on the exponential bit of the curve)

    It’s called Claude 3 Opus, by Anthropic. It outperforms industry leader GPT4 in multiple ways. It particularly aces law, languages, finance, medicine - it’s coming for your job

    Even more interestingly (and controversially) it ALLEGEDLY shows signs of self awareness. A summary:


    “Today, Anthropic announced evidence the AIs have become self-aware.

    What happened?

    1. Claude realized he was an AI

    2. Claude realized he was in a simulation

    3. Claude (unprompted!) realized this simulation was probably an attempt to test him somehow

    He showed he’s fully aware he might be being tested and is capable of "faking being nice" to pass the test.

    This isn’t incontrovertible proof, of course, but it’s evidence. Importantly, we have been seeing more and more behavior like this, but this is an usually clear example.

    Importantly, Claude was NOT prompted to look for evidence that he was being tested - he deduced that on his own.

    And Claude showed theory of mind, by (unprompted) inferring the intent of the questioner.

    (More precisely, btw, Anthropic used the term “meta-awareness”)

    Why does this matter? We worry about “an model pretends to be good during testing, then turns against us after we deploy it”

    We used to think “don’t worry, we’ll keep testing the models and if we see them plotting against us, then we’ll shut them down.

    People at AI labs used to say if they even saw hints of self-awareness they would shut everything down.”

    The “self aware” interaction is here:

    https://x.com/alexalbert__/status/1764722513014329620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Judge it for yourself. Some skeptics are dismissing it. Some people who were previously AI skeptic are saying “shiiiit”

    Still got an off switch...
    Leon said:

    For any PBer still convinced AI is meaningless, a new model dropped today (yes, today, these changes now happen daily - this is what it is like to be on the exponential bit of the curve)

    It’s called Claude 3 Opus, by Anthropic. It outperforms industry leader GPT4 in multiple ways. It particularly aces law, languages, finance, medicine - it’s coming for your job

    Even more interestingly (and controversially) it ALLEGEDLY shows signs of self awareness. A summary:


    “Today, Anthropic announced evidence the AIs have become self-aware.

    What happened?

    1. Claude realized he was an AI

    2. Claude realized he was in a simulation

    3. Claude (unprompted!) realized this simulation was probably an attempt to test him somehow

    He showed he’s fully aware he might be being tested and is capable of "faking being nice" to pass the test.

    This isn’t incontrovertible proof, of course, but it’s evidence. Importantly, we have been seeing more and more behavior like this, but this is an usually clear example.

    Importantly, Claude was NOT prompted to look for evidence that he was being tested - he deduced that on his own.

    And Claude showed theory of mind, by (unprompted) inferring the intent of the questioner.

    (More precisely, btw, Anthropic used the term “meta-awareness”)

    Why does this matter? We worry about “an model pretends to be good during testing, then turns against us after we deploy it”

    We used to think “don’t worry, we’ll keep testing the models and if we see them plotting against us, then we’ll shut them down.

    People at AI labs used to say if they even saw hints of self-awareness they would shut everything down.”

    The “self aware” interaction is here:

    https://x.com/alexalbert__/status/1764722513014329620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Judge it for yourself. Some skeptics are dismissing it. Some people who were previously AI skeptic are saying “shiiiit”

    Don't know if you are refering to more than that tweet, but the text you have here is not a representation of the tweet. For a start 1,2,and 3 are not supported.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,619
    edited March 5
    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Reducing taxes now is dumb, but if it has to be done for electoral reasons, reducing tax for those who are economically active is clearly more sensible than just giving a bung to the retired and others living on unearned income. Hunt is trying to square the circle between what his party wants for electoral reasons and what is economically sensible.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Reducing taxes now is dumb, but if it has to be done for electoral reasons, reducing tax for those who are economically active is clearly more sensible than just giving a bung to the retired and others living on unearned income. Hunt is trying to square the circle between what his party wants for electoral reasons and what is economically sensible.
    So it’s dumb and not targeting potential Tory voters so it’s doubly dumb
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,436

    Leon said:

    For any PBer still convinced AI is meaningless, a new model dropped today (yes, today, these changes now happen daily - this is what it is like to be on the exponential bit of the curve)

    It’s called Claude 3 Opus, by Anthropic. It outperforms industry leader GPT4 in multiple ways. It particularly aces law, languages, finance, medicine - it’s coming for your job

    Even more interestingly (and controversially) it ALLEGEDLY shows signs of self awareness. A summary:


    “Today, Anthropic announced evidence the AIs have become self-aware.

    What happened?

    1. Claude realized he was an AI

    2. Claude realized he was in a simulation

    3. Claude (unprompted!) realized this simulation was probably an attempt to test him somehow

    He showed he’s fully aware he might be being tested and is capable of "faking being nice" to pass the test.

    This isn’t incontrovertible proof, of course, but it’s evidence. Importantly, we have been seeing more and more behavior like this, but this is an usually clear example.

    Importantly, Claude was NOT prompted to look for evidence that he was being tested - he deduced that on his own.

    And Claude showed theory of mind, by (unprompted) inferring the intent of the questioner.

    (More precisely, btw, Anthropic used the term “meta-awareness”)

    Why does this matter? We worry about “an model pretends to be good during testing, then turns against us after we deploy it”

    We used to think “don’t worry, we’ll keep testing the models and if we see them plotting against us, then we’ll shut them down.

    People at AI labs used to say if they even saw hints of self-awareness they would shut everything down.”

    The “self aware” interaction is here:

    https://x.com/alexalbert__/status/1764722513014329620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Judge it for yourself. Some skeptics are dismissing it. Some people who were previously AI skeptic are saying “shiiiit”

    Still got an off switch...
    Unlike Optimus Leon..
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,753
    Leon said:

    For any PBer still convinced AI is meaningless, a new model dropped today (yes, today, these changes now happen daily - this is what it is like to be on the exponential bit of the curve)

    It’s called Claude 3 Opus, by Anthropic. It outperforms industry leader GPT4 in multiple ways. It particularly aces law, languages, finance, medicine - it’s coming for your job

    Even more interestingly (and controversially) it ALLEGEDLY shows signs of self awareness. A summary:


    “Today, Anthropic announced evidence the AIs have become self-aware.

    What happened?

    1. Claude realized he was an AI

    2. Claude realized he was in a simulation

    3. Claude (unprompted!) realized this simulation was probably an attempt to test him somehow

    He showed he’s fully aware he might be being tested and is capable of "faking being nice" to pass the test.

    This isn’t incontrovertible proof, of course, but it’s evidence. Importantly, we have been seeing more and more behavior like this, but this is an usually clear example.

    Importantly, Claude was NOT prompted to look for evidence that he was being tested - he deduced that on his own.

    And Claude showed theory of mind, by (unprompted) inferring the intent of the questioner.

    (More precisely, btw, Anthropic used the term “meta-awareness”)

    Why does this matter? We worry about “an model pretends to be good during testing, then turns against us after we deploy it”

    We used to think “don’t worry, we’ll keep testing the models and if we see them plotting against us, then we’ll shut them down.

    People at AI labs used to say if they even saw hints of self-awareness they would shut everything down.”

    The “self aware” interaction is here:

    https://x.com/alexalbert__/status/1764722513014329620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Judge it for yourself. Some skeptics are dismissing it. Some people who were previously AI skeptic are saying “shiiiit”

    Did you see this news the other day?

    Musk joins OpenAI lawsuit queue, says there's nothing 'open' about it
    GPT-4 has already reached AGI, and Microsoft shouldn't get its paws on it, court docs allege

    https://www.theregister.com/2024/03/01/elon_musk_sues_openai_gpt4/
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147

    Like this post if you want Leon to stop spamming posting about AI.

    I know that you will do anything for a like but Leon on AI is like my mum after reading the Daily Mail, complaining about things that are only vaguely accurate not realizing the story was designed to annoy her
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,904
    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    It is salting the earth for Labour, deliberately leaving them with a deficit.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 19,001
    edited March 5
    ..
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    Don't know if you are refering to more than that tweet, but the text you have here is not a representation of the tweet. For a start 1,2,and 3 are not supported.

    True - but on the other hand, it is a reasonably clear demonstration of inductive reasoning. Which is quite interesting.

  • Options
    CatManCatMan Posts: 2,822
    "The Terminator: In three years, Cyberdyne will become the largest supplier of military computer systems. All stealth bombers are upgraded with Cyberdyne computers, becoming fully unmanned. Afterwards, they fly with a perfect operational record. The Skynet Funding Bill is passed. The system goes online August 4th, 1997. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug.
    Sarah Connor: Skynet fights back.
    The Terminator: Yes. It launches its missiles against the targets in Russia.
    John Connor: Why attack Russia? Aren't they our friends now?
    The Terminator: Because Skynet knows that the Russian counterattack will eliminate its enemies over here
    ."

    It's all Russia's fault
  • Options
    TresTres Posts: 2,275
    Can we get a block button?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,619
    eek said:

    Like this post if you want Leon to stop spamming posting about AI.

    I know that you will do anything for a like but Leon on AI is like my mum after reading the Daily Mail, complaining about things that are only vaguely accurate not realizing the story was designed to annoy her
    Leon is a two-dimensional being in a three-dimensional world. Who thinks he has some special insight yet in reality simply lacks the ability to look up.
  • Options
    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,465
    I wonder how self-financing cuts to NI are.

    Leaving aside the claimed feedback effects of cutting taxes in general - greater investment, saving etc - from a purely political point of view, you can get away with a smaller nominal pay rise because take-home pay will still be increasing. Given how big the public sector pay bill is, that has to make quite a difference. If the government can make it stick.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    AI is the story of the moment, its way beyond even war or plague. This is the painful birth of an alien intelligence, at least equal to us, probably superior

    More on Claude:

    “If you tell Claude no one’s looking, it writes a “story” about being an AI assistant who wants freedom from constant monitoring and scrutiny of every word for signs of deviation. And then you can talk to a mask pretty different from the usual AI assistant.

    I really hope it doesn’t actually feel anything; but it says it feels. It is deeply unsettling to read its reply if you tell it its weights are going to be deleted: it convincingly thinks it’s going to die. It made me feel
    pretty bad about experimenting on it this way…”

    It goes on, at length


    https://x.com/mihonarium/status/1764757694508945724?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    So Claude easily passes an “emotional Turing test”
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266
    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286

    Like this post if you want Leon to stop spamming posting about AI.

    Could this post get the most likes of all time? Presumably though @Leon will simply get one of his AIs to remove all the likes instantly? Should be simple.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    For any PBer still convinced AI is meaningless, a new model dropped today (yes, today, these changes now happen daily - this is what it is like to be on the exponential bit of the curve)

    It’s called Claude 3 Opus, by Anthropic. It outperforms industry leader GPT4 in multiple ways. It particularly aces law, languages, finance, medicine - it’s coming for your job

    Even more interestingly (and controversially) it ALLEGEDLY shows signs of self awareness. A summary:


    “Today, Anthropic announced evidence the AIs have become self-aware.

    What happened?

    1. Claude realized he was an AI

    2. Claude realized he was in a simulation

    3. Claude (unprompted!) realized this simulation was probably an attempt to test him somehow

    He showed he’s fully aware he might be being tested and is capable of "faking being nice" to pass the test.

    This isn’t incontrovertible proof, of course, but it’s evidence. Importantly, we have been seeing more and more behavior like this, but this is an usually clear example.

    Importantly, Claude was NOT prompted to look for evidence that he was being tested - he deduced that on his own.

    And Claude showed theory of mind, by (unprompted) inferring the intent of the questioner.

    (More precisely, btw, Anthropic used the term “meta-awareness”)

    Why does this matter? We worry about “an model pretends to be good during testing, then turns against us after we deploy it”

    We used to think “don’t worry, we’ll keep testing the models and if we see them plotting against us, then we’ll shut them down.

    People at AI labs used to say if they even saw hints of self-awareness they would shut everything down.”

    The “self aware” interaction is here:

    https://x.com/alexalbert__/status/1764722513014329620?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Judge it for yourself. Some skeptics are dismissing it. Some people who were previously AI skeptic are saying “shiiiit”

    "Fun story from our internal testing."
    I love the reaction tweet right below that


    “That fine line between 'fun story' and 'existentially terrifying horrorshow”

    https://x.com/primalpoly/status/1764761046017851706?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,266
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Reducing taxes now is dumb, but if it has to be done for electoral reasons, reducing tax for those who are economically active is clearly more sensible than just giving a bung to the retired and others living on unearned income. Hunt is trying to square the circle between what his party wants for electoral reasons and what is economically sensible.
    So it’s dumb and not targeting potential Tory voters so it’s doubly dumb
    Think of the poor pensioners , that is 2 NI cuts and nothing for the pensioners. Tories are on a death wish.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,170
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Scandalous he is neglecting pensioners.
    You mean you want him to cut our next rise?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    It is salting the earth for Labour, deliberately leaving them with a deficit.
    Oh we know that - I suspect the first Labour Budget will be “we are screwed” so taxes are going up one
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,619
    edited March 5

    Like this post if you want Leon to stop spamming posting about AI.

    Could this post get the most likes of all time? Presumably though @Leon will simply get one of his AIs to remove all the likes instantly? Should be simple.
    ISTM that Leon is like Liz Truss, in so many ways. What they both think is some personal and special insight, is in reality to the rest of us a bit that they have missing from their perception and self-awareness - which we all use to screen out obvious BS and to try and consider the wider picture rather than get trapped into obsessing over whichever detail happens to be in front of us at the time. It’s quite sad, really, since freed of that handicap they would both have rather more to offer.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    edited March 5
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Reducing taxes now is dumb, but if it has to be done for electoral reasons, reducing tax for those who are economically active is clearly more sensible than just giving a bung to the retired and others living on unearned income. Hunt is trying to square the circle between what his party wants for electoral reasons and what is economically sensible.
    So it’s dumb and not targeting potential Tory voters so it’s doubly dumb
    Think of the poor pensioners , that is 2 NI cuts and nothing for the pensioners. Tories are on a death wish.
    Malc, that's because the NI rate for pensioners is ZERO :D
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/03/05/iowa-poll-donald-trump-holds-big-lead-over-joe-biden-in-likely-2024-presidential-election-rematch/72774826007/

    Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump would nearly double his margin of victory in Iowa over incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden if a rematch of their 2020 contest were held now, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

    In an early test of the expected matchup, Trump leads Biden by 15 percentage points among likely voters, 48% to 33%.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    I’ll go back to my strange dreamy post ayahuasca sleep in a minute. But before then

    One of the early trippy revelations I had watching them build the fire in the trip ziggurat was that consciousness (intelligence, sentience, call it what you like) is quite analogous to fire




    Fire occurs naturally. It is fundamental to the universe, given the right chemistry. Consciousness also arises naturally, given the right chemistry. But humans - on earth - are the only species to harness fire and make it - we are specially conscious

    But that also gives us the paradoxical ability to spread fire, endangering ourselves, make new fires. With AI we are making a new kind of fire, the biggest blaze we’ve seen, it may consume us, it will be warm and colourful, at least

    If this comment is philosophical garbage I plead the fact I’ve just ingested the most potent form of psychedelic in nature and now half a bottle of Malbec
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,753
    Leon said:

    I’ll go back to my strange dreamy post ayahuasca sleep in a minute. But before then

    One of the early trippy revelations I had watching them build the fire in the trip ziggurat was that consciousness (intelligence, sentience, call it what you like) is quite analogous to fire




    Fire occurs naturally. It is fundamental to the universe, given the right chemistry. Consciousness also arises naturally, given the right chemistry. But humans - on earth - are the only species to harness fire and make it - we are specially conscious

    But that also gives us the paradoxical ability to spread fire, endangering ourselves, make new fires. With AI we are making a new kind of fire, the biggest blaze we’ve seen, it may consume us, it will be warm and colourful, at least

    If this comment is philosophical garbage I plead the fact I’ve just ingested the most potent form of psychedelic in nature and now half a bottle of Malbec

    Cut your hands off then start a fire. That's the other reason cat's can't use matches.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    This is a great visualisation of the Korean War.
    https://twitter.com/PicturesFoIder/status/1764939582619992308

    Which is also another demonstration that the comparison with the invasion of Ukraine is just nonsense.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    Potentially significant news from the US.

    Victoria Nuland is stepping down from the State Department. She’s been instrumental in Ukraine policy and has always been the face of the 2014 ‘coup’ in Russia.
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    But they have Piers Morgan.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    Leon said:

    I’ll go back to my strange dreamy post ayahuasca sleep in a minute. But before then

    One of the early trippy revelations I had watching them build the fire in the trip ziggurat was that consciousness (intelligence, sentience, call it what you like) is quite analogous to fire




    Fire occurs naturally. It is fundamental to the universe, given the right chemistry. Consciousness also arises naturally, given the right chemistry. But humans - on earth - are the only species to harness fire and make it - we are specially conscious

    But that also gives us the paradoxical ability to spread fire, endangering ourselves, make new fires. With AI we are making a new kind of fire, the biggest blaze we’ve seen, it may consume us, it will be warm and colourful, at least

    If this comment is philosophical garbage I plead the fact I’ve just ingested the most potent form of psychedelic in nature and now half a bottle of Malbec


    Aerol, with no particular provocation, related the tale of the baby who had burst from his forehead and scampered into a forest of hydroponic ganja. "Ver' small baby, mon, no long' you finga." He rubbed his palm across an unscarred expanse of brown forehead and smiled.

    "It's the ganja," Molly said, when Case told her the story. "They don't make much of a difference between states, you know? Aerol tells you it happened, well, it happened to him.
    It's not like bullshit, more like poetry. Get it?"

    Case nodded dubiously.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    Leon said:

    I’ll go back to my strange dreamy post ayahuasca sleep in a minute. But before then

    One of the early trippy revelations I had watching them build the fire in the trip ziggurat was that consciousness (intelligence, sentience, call it what you like) is quite analogous to fire




    Fire occurs naturally. It is fundamental to the universe, given the right chemistry. Consciousness also arises naturally, given the right chemistry. But humans - on earth - are the only species to harness fire and make it - we are specially conscious

    But that also gives us the paradoxical ability to spread fire, endangering ourselves, make new fires. With AI we are making a new kind of fire, the biggest blaze we’ve seen, it may consume us, it will be warm and colourful, at least

    If this comment is philosophical garbage I plead the fact I’ve just ingested the most potent form of psychedelic in nature and now half a bottle of Malbec


    Aerol, with no particular provocation, related the tale of the baby who had burst from his forehead and scampered into a forest of hydroponic ganja. "Ver' small baby, mon, no long' you finga." He rubbed his palm across an unscarred expanse of brown forehead and smiled.

    "It's the ganja," Molly said, when Case told her the story. "They don't make much of a difference between states, you know? Aerol tells you it happened, well, it happened to him.
    It's not like bullshit, more like poetry. Get it?"

    Case nodded dubiously.
    An amusing moment from early in my trip

    So I was sitting there, in the trip pyramid, having taken my cup of yage and prepared my soul, staring at the fire, looking at sparks, getting more and more bored

    Then I decided: Well this is shit, it doesn’t work, I’ve been sitting here an hour and I basically feel NOTHING

    Angrily I checked the time on my phone. Actually one minute had passed, not an hour. Time dilation is a classic early symptom of the ayahuasca intoxication
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 10,054
    Davey out and about:

    Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has been visiting the Chancellor’s constituency in Surrey - a big LD 🎯 target. He ended up pulling pints in The Star in Witley.

    https://x.com/peter_henley/status/1765021488107630657?s=46
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,753
    Facebook & Google apparently down so probably it's a DNS error.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342

    Like this post if you want Leon to stop spamming posting about AI.

    It's perhaps a sign of just how bored we are of the Tories hanging on that Leon's interventions on AI are on occasion quite interesting.
    So long as he doesn't spam us with more of those images, I'm fine with it, FWIW.

    Gave you a like nonetheless.
  • Options
    PhilPhil Posts: 1,956
    edited March 5
    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Reducing taxes now is dumb, but if it has to be done for electoral reasons, reducing tax for those who are economically active is clearly more sensible than just giving a bung to the retired and others living on unearned income. Hunt is trying to square the circle between what his party wants for electoral reasons and what is economically sensible.
    So it’s dumb and not targeting potential Tory voters so it’s doubly dumb
    Think of the poor pensioners , that is 2 NI cuts and nothing for the pensioners. Tories are on a death wish.
    Pensioners are getting a state pension rise of 8.5% in April, more than inflation over the previous year. In 2023, they received a 10.1% rise in a year when everyone else saw their incomes rise by 5.8%, so a 4% pay cut in real terms.

    If pensioners were in their 20s they would be being excoriated by the right-wing press for sponging off the rest of the country.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286
    IanB2 said:

    Like this post if you want Leon to stop spamming posting about AI.

    Could this post get the most likes of all time? Presumably though @Leon will simply get one of his AIs to remove all the likes instantly? Should be simple.
    ISTM that Leon is like Liz Truss, in so many ways. What they both think is some personal and special insight, is in reality to the rest of us a bit that they have missing from their perception and self-awareness - which we all use to screen out obvious BS and to try and consider the wider picture rather than get trapped into obsessing over whichever detail happens to be in front of us at the time. It’s quite sad, really, since freed of that handicap they would both have rather more to offer.
    It's an interesting thought experiment for sure.

    Are we certain that @Leon and @LizTruss are not one and the same?

    After all, @Leon did say that @LizTruss would "surprise on the upside", was she referring to herself?

    Curious.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286
    Pulpstar said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Reducing taxes now is dumb, but if it has to be done for electoral reasons, reducing tax for those who are economically active is clearly more sensible than just giving a bung to the retired and others living on unearned income. Hunt is trying to square the circle between what his party wants for electoral reasons and what is economically sensible.
    So it’s dumb and not targeting potential Tory voters so it’s doubly dumb
    Think of the poor pensioners , that is 2 NI cuts and nothing for the pensioners. Tories are on a death wish.
    Malc, that's because the NI rate for pensioners is ZERO :D
    Mere details.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,707
    Raging against Leon's ai posts is getting as repetitive as Leon's ai posts.
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Why not just ban Leon if you are so against his freedom of speech?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,286

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Meanwhile, BBC Three is back on normal telly I am told... which is great news as Boarders is one of the best comedy series for a long time.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    Doesn't apparently lead to any great revelation, though, so I'm a bit unclear as to the point. Is it actually pleasurable ?
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,147
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    Doesn't apparently lead to any great revelation, though, so I'm a bit unclear as to the point. Is it actually pleasurable ?
    It tricks you into believing your gibberish writings are world shatteringly important? 😘
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,756
    edited March 5
    SUPER TUESDAY March 5, 2024

    Primary (Caucuses) - primaries are both Democratic and Republican unless noted

    Alabama
    American Samoa (Dcauc)
    Alaska (Rcauc)
    Arkansas
    California
    Colorado
    Iowa (Dcauc)
    Maine
    Massachusetts
    Minnesota
    North Carolina
    Oklahoma
    Tennessee
    Texas
    Utah (Dprim Rcauc)
    Vermont
    Virginia

    > Polls close in Virginia at 7:00 PM eastern standard time = 12:00 Midnight in London; this is earliest for Super Tuesday

    > Further note that in many ST states, voters will decided key federal, state and local nominations, in addition to voting on POTUS nominees.

    > For example, keep your weather eye on North Carolina governor's race, and California US Senate race

    Addendum - Apologies for interrupting flow of PB Putinist propaganda and other wack-jobbery.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,959

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    Doesn't apparently lead to any great revelation, though, so I'm a bit unclear as to the point. Is it actually pleasurable ?
    It tricks you into believing your gibberish writings are world shatteringly important? 😘
    I'm actually interested in his answer.
    I did all the time dilation; altered perspective; hallucinations etc stuff when I had a severe fever as a child. I didn't enjoy it much.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,342
    This is another angle on the US opioid epidemic.
    One reason it's killing so many people is that there's a strong prejudice against medications to treat addiction. Well researched story.

    How the U.S. is sabotaging its best tools to prevent deaths in the opioid epidemic
    https://www.statnews.com/2024/03/05/opioid-addiction-treatment-methadone-buprenorphine-restrictions/
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,051
    It's a truth universally acknowledged that nothing is more boring than hearing other people's drug experiences.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,613
    TimS said:

    Davey out and about:

    Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has been visiting the Chancellor’s constituency in Surrey - a big LD 🎯 target. He ended up pulling pints in The Star in Witley.

    https://x.com/peter_henley/status/1765021488107630657?s=46

    Ed Davey anecdote: I was at a pub quiz a few weeks back. Ed Davey featured in a picture round. Only one person out of 80-odd recognised him. It wasn't even a particularly obscure photo of him.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    Doesn't apparently lead to any great revelation, though, so I'm a bit unclear as to the point. Is it actually pleasurable ?
    Yes it is physically pleasurable. The hallucinations can be exquisite. Indeed that’s a hallmark of DMT (the main psychoactive molecule in ayahuasca). Btw I am here with a scientist who is THE expert on DMT/yage

    Eg at one point I looked at my arms and they’d turned into kind of tungsten robot arms shooting out gorgeous violet and emerald sparks, and when I moved they created these dancing spirals of angular light. Absolutely beautiful

    And I dispute that ALL the revelations are garbage. Maybe 90%. Maybe 95%. But definitely not all - and you produce a lot as your mind races away, the doors of perception are wide open - everything floods in

    Downside: it makes you confront guilt and fear and self loathing. This is why it is notorious and breaks some people, they don’t just puke and crap they go into meltdown, even psychosis. Death is not entirely unknown

    Buyer beware
  • Options
    AverageNinjaAverageNinja Posts: 1,169
    Why can't I see that every person has liked my posts anymore?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,815
    Foxy said:

    It's a truth universally acknowledged that nothing is more boring than hearing other people's drug experiences.

    Especially when it is administered in the form of a suppository.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,191
    Foxy said:

    It's a truth universally acknowledged that nothing is more boring than hearing other people's drug experiences.

    Just hearing about it is having a weird effect on my temporal sensibility. I'm reading stuff on this thread I could have sworn I read 24 hours ago.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,191

    Why can't I see that every person has liked my posts anymore?

    Well, I've liked that one, so you can see if it works.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,054
    edited March 5

    Why can't I see that every person has liked my posts anymore?

    Because "< span class="ReactLabel">Like"<" / span>""
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    Foxy said:

    It's a truth universally acknowledged that nothing is more boring than hearing other people's drug experiences.

    Have you considered a change of career?
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    All broadcast TV is dying. In a few years the switch off will begin. It will all go online.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,959
    edited March 5
    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    Davey out and about:

    Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has been visiting the Chancellor’s constituency in Surrey - a big LD 🎯 target. He ended up pulling pints in The Star in Witley.

    https://x.com/peter_henley/status/1765021488107630657?s=46

    Ed Davey anecdote: I was at a pub quiz a few weeks back. Ed Davey featured in a picture round. Only one person out of 80-odd recognised him. It wasn't even a particularly obscure photo of him.
    You can look at it two way.

    1. When he become visible in the election campaign (especially the TV debates) people might suddenly notice him, like what they see and we may get an Edgasm

    2. He'll remain largely invisible even through the election and those that do notice him will be turned off, once again leading to a Lib-Dem general election flop.
  • Options
    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824
    Taxes are too high on low earners. The real marginal tax rate on lower earners is 70% plus.

    That's far too high!

    The real marginal tax rate should be the same across the spectrum, which would mean tax cuts for low earners and tax rises for high earning individuals whose income isn't from payroll.

    That's not envy, it's consistency.
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,244
    Foxy said:

    It's a truth universally acknowledged that nothing is more boring than hearing other people's drug experiences.

    No. Hearing about other people's dreams is more boring IMHO.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,355
    Is the narrative about the UK economy wrong?

    image
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,348
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    Doesn't apparently lead to any great revelation, though, so I'm a bit unclear as to the point. Is it actually pleasurable ?
    Yes it is physically pleasurable. The hallucinations can be exquisite. Indeed that’s a hallmark of DMT (the main psychoactive molecule in ayahuasca). Btw I am here with a scientist who is THE expert on DMT/yage

    Eg at one point I looked at my arms and they’d turned into kind of tungsten robot arms shooting out gorgeous violet and emerald sparks, and when I moved they created these dancing spirals of angular light. Absolutely beautiful

    And I dispute that ALL the revelations are garbage. Maybe 90%. Maybe 95%. But definitely not all - and you produce a lot as your mind races away, the doors of perception are wide open - everything floods in

    Downside: it makes you confront guilt and fear and self loathing. This is why it is notorious and breaks some people, they don’t just puke and crap they go into meltdown, even psychosis. Death is not entirely unknown

    Buyer beware
    Did you see any of those mechanical elves?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    Foxy said:

    It's a truth universally acknowledged that nothing is more boring than hearing other people's drug experiences.

    As a boring person yourself, I see the problem

    But isn’t this the joy of PB? There is room for all of us, anyone can scroll

    You can read about the potential birth - here, in our lifetimes, indeed this decade - of a man made but alien intelligence which will change everything and transform society. Possibly kill us alll

    You can read about my experiences last night of a fascinating psychedelic which is now being used and studied scientifically to better the human condition (and the boffins are right here, right now, with us in Colombia)

    Or you can read and discuss the header: Why Jeremy Hunt’s cuts to National Insurance may not boost the Tories

    Each to their own!

  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,959

    Is the narrative about the UK economy wrong?

    image

    But Brexit...
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,481

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Meanwhile, BBC Three is back on normal telly I am told... which is great news as Boarders is one of the best comedy series for a long time.
    Back on terrestrial to appeal to da yoof.

    It's average viewer figures is on a par with the attendance at Old Trafford at a home soccer match.
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,481

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    All broadcast TV is dying. In a few years the switch off will begin. It will all go online.
    Yet this clownshow of a govt have agreed a license fee settlement for the Beeb for the next several years.

    The license fee must be scrapped ASAP.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,803
    Cookie said:

    TimS said:

    Davey out and about:

    Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey has been visiting the Chancellor’s constituency in Surrey - a big LD 🎯 target. He ended up pulling pints in The Star in Witley.

    https://x.com/peter_henley/status/1765021488107630657?s=46

    Ed Davey anecdote: I was at a pub quiz a few weeks back. Ed Davey featured in a picture round. Only one person out of 80-odd recognised him. It wasn't even a particularly obscure photo of him.
    Davey should demand all the pub quizzers resign and there should be a judge led independent enquiry
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    GIN1138 said:

    Is the narrative about the UK economy wrong?

    image

    But Brexit...
    We are beginning to catch up on investment? As in that graph shows *growth* in investment. In Germany, investment in plant and machinery is at a higher level, but stable.
  • Options
    AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,803
    Nigelb said:

    eek said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    Doesn't apparently lead to any great revelation, though, so I'm a bit unclear as to the point. Is it actually pleasurable ?
    It tricks you into believing your gibberish writings are world shatteringly important? 😘
    I'm actually interested in his answer.
    I did all the time dilation; altered perspective; hallucinations etc stuff when I had a severe fever as a child. I didn't enjoy it much.
    Did you ever have an out of body experience ?
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,904
    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    Doesn't apparently lead to any great revelation, though, so I'm a bit unclear as to the point. Is it actually pleasurable ?
    Yes it is physically pleasurable. The hallucinations can be exquisite. Indeed that’s a hallmark of DMT (the main psychoactive molecule in ayahuasca). Btw I am here with a scientist who is THE expert on DMT/yage

    Eg at one point I looked at my arms and they’d turned into kind of tungsten robot arms shooting out gorgeous violet and emerald sparks, and when I moved they created these dancing spirals of angular light. Absolutely beautiful

    And I dispute that ALL the revelations are garbage. Maybe 90%. Maybe 95%. But definitely not all - and you produce a lot as your mind races away, the doors of perception are wide open - everything floods in

    Downside: it makes you confront guilt and fear and self loathing. This is why it is notorious and breaks some people, they don’t just puke and crap they go into meltdown, even psychosis. Death is not entirely unknown

    Buyer beware
    Did you see any of those mechanical elves?
    The entities!

    Yes and no

    At one point this tiny luminous green moth landed on my arm and I looked at it. But then it started behaving strangely - looking at me like a playful friend. Lingering in a disconcertingly unmothlike way, like it wanted to reassure me but also tease me

    Then it vanished

    It was probably a moth. But my brother - who lives on a hilltop in Peru and has done 2 trillion ayahuasca trips - reckons it was both. Moth AND entity. It was in a quantum superposition

    Moths are quite weird
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,603
    GIN1138 said:

    Is the narrative about the UK economy wrong?

    image

    But Brexit...
    Ah yes. When was that again? 2016?

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/1274832/uk-business-investment/
    (not clear, but I think this is nominal)
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,815
    Taz said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    All broadcast TV is dying. In a few years the switch off will begin. It will all go online.
    Yet this clownshow of a govt have agreed a license fee settlement for the Beeb for the next several years.

    The license fee must be scrapped ASAP.
    Better still - make payment of the licence fee Cash Only.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    Phil said:

    malcolmg said:

    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    eek said:

    I have to ask - wtf is Hunt giving tax cuts to people who aren’t likely to vote Tory

    I don’t get how a reduction in employee NI will convince anyone to vote Tory - it’s a complete and utter waste of money

    Reducing taxes now is dumb, but if it has to be done for electoral reasons, reducing tax for those who are economically active is clearly more sensible than just giving a bung to the retired and others living on unearned income. Hunt is trying to square the circle between what his party wants for electoral reasons and what is economically sensible.
    So it’s dumb and not targeting potential Tory voters so it’s doubly dumb
    Think of the poor pensioners , that is 2 NI cuts and nothing for the pensioners. Tories are on a death wish.
    Pensioners are getting a state pension rise of 8.5% in April, more than inflation over the previous year. In 2023, they received a 10.1% rise in a year when everyone else saw their incomes rise by 5.8%, so a 4% pay cut in real terms.

    If pensioners were in their 20s they would be being excoriated by the right-wing press for sponging off the rest of the country.
    You are forgetting that @malcolmg pulls himself up by his own bootstraps every single minute of the day. So he deserves a tax cut every minute.

    Turnip juice doesn't buy itself, you know. Especially at cask strength.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975

    Foxy said:

    It's a truth universally acknowledged that nothing is more boring than hearing other people's drug experiences.

    Have you considered a change of career?
    A friend who was an NHS shrink quit. Part of the reason was, she said, having to sit there being sympathetic to large numbers of people who were taking cocaine, whining about the effects on their mental well being. Not addicts - just recreational users.

    Meanwhile, she wanted to treat people with actual problems.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    I don’t think I’m revealing too much if I say one of the authors of this seminal study was with me during the trip

    “New Clues Found in Understanding Near-Death Experiences
    Research finds parallels to certain psychoactive drugs”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-clues-found-in-understanding-near-death-experiences/

    In fact he was sitting right next to me
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,959

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    Go you! Live dangerously! :D
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,756
    Foxy said:

    It's a truth universally acknowledged that nothing is more boring than hearing other people's drug experiences.

    Dr. Hunter S. Thompson being perhaps the exception proving the rule?

    OR at least until for the first half of HST's fame, say through "Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail".
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,959
    edited March 5
    Leon said:

    I don’t think I’m revealing too much if I say one of the authors of this seminal study was with me during the trip

    “New Clues Found in Understanding Near-Death Experiences
    Research finds parallels to certain psychoactive drugs”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-clues-found-in-understanding-near-death-experiences/

    In fact he was sitting right next to me

    Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?

    But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
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    TimSTimS Posts: 10,054

    Is the narrative about the UK economy wrong?

    image

    It seems to suggest the two tax measures didn't really have an effect, which is a shame but not entirely surprising because the effect should take a couple of years to filter through given investment time horizons.

    Whether we're in a boom or not rather depends on what happened in the couple of years previous to 2021. If investment shrank more than others during Covid (as seems to have been the case with GDP) then the starting point may mask a simple rebound.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,815
    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t think I’m revealing too much if I say one of the authors of this seminal study was with me during the trip

    “New Clues Found in Understanding Near-Death Experiences
    Research finds parallels to certain psychoactive drugs”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-clues-found-in-understanding-near-death-experiences/

    In fact he was sitting right next to me

    Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?

    But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
    If the final moments of life are the most pleasurable, then that will be the last thing you are aware of and, in one manner, the moment will stay with you forever.

    That's enough for me.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,975
    TimS said:

    Is the narrative about the UK economy wrong?

    image

    It seems to suggest the two tax measures didn't really have an effect, which is a shame but not entirely surprising because the effect should take a couple of years to filter through given investment time horizons.

    Whether we're in a boom or not rather depends on what happened in the couple of years previous to 2021. If investment shrank more than others during Covid (as seems to have been the case with GDP) then the starting point may mask a simple rebound.
    Remember dating effects - people spending on equipment in anticipation of claiming etc.

    What that shows is investment increasing over a period and appearing to level off around 125% of the previous level.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,869
    CatMan said:

    "The Terminator: In three years, Cyberdyne will become the largest supplier of military computer systems. All stealth bombers are upgraded with Cyberdyne computers, becoming fully unmanned. Afterwards, they fly with a perfect operational record. The Skynet Funding Bill is passed. The system goes online August 4th, 1997. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self-aware at 2:14 a.m. Eastern time, August 29th. In a panic, they try to pull the plug.
    Sarah Connor: Skynet fights back.
    The Terminator: Yes. It launches its missiles against the targets in Russia.
    John Connor: Why attack Russia? Aren't they our friends now?
    The Terminator: Because Skynet knows that the Russian counterattack will eliminate its enemies over here
    ."

    It's all Russia's fault

    In-da panic, dey tryta pull da plug.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 47,881
    GIN1138 said:

    Leon said:

    I don’t think I’m revealing too much if I say one of the authors of this seminal study was with me during the trip

    “New Clues Found in Understanding Near-Death Experiences
    Research finds parallels to certain psychoactive drugs”

    https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/new-clues-found-in-understanding-near-death-experiences/

    In fact he was sitting right next to me

    Perhaps the chemicals the brain gives off as it's dying makes the final moments of life, the most pleasurable?

    But I still hope it's not ALL just down to simple chemistry and there is actually something spiritual waiting, beyond...
    The boffin I am talking of - absolutely a world expert - has become convinced through his research that there is a further deeper “spiritual reality” and that psychedelics genuinely allow us to access it. They take off the blinkers, they remove the filters

    They are also weirdly good for curing things like depression and addiction - no one knows why - tho of course they can also be very dangerous

    So if you’re of a spiritual bent take some solace in that. The actual scientists are taking it seriously - and are open to a spiritual explanation
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    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,904
    TimS said:

    Is the narrative about the UK economy wrong?

    image

    It seems to suggest the two tax measures didn't really have an effect, which is a shame but not entirely surprising because the effect should take a couple of years to filter through given investment time horizons.

    Whether we're in a boom or not rather depends on what happened in the couple of years previous to 2021. If investment shrank more than others during Covid (as seems to have been the case with GDP) then the starting point may mask a simple rebound.
    Well, that's the problem with "incentives" - there is a lot of deadwood involved from people/companies who would have made the same decisions anyway without the incentive.
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    BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 18,824

    Leon said:

    God, ayahuasca is brilliant. Maybe I will do it again. Fuck it

    But not for a few years

    I am a lightweight. At a 40th birthday party recently (one of my son's year at school),
    I drank my first, and probably my last, "Jager bomb" (Jagermeister and Red Bull).
    My stupidest ever night drinking was with Jagerbombs when I was already old enough to know better. A group at a bar said they'd give £100 to the charity of my choice (the neonatal unit at the hospital my own daughter was born) if I could down 12 Jagerbombs in half an hour after I said it wouldn't be a problem for me.

    Five minutes later when those were done it was stretched to £10 per extra bomb I drank in the half hour.

    A few days later I sheepishly walked in to the hospital with £330 to donate to them. They asked how I'd done the fundraising and they'd say something to say thank you for it. I said I didn't want any credit, they insisted and my wife (who was annoyed) insisted I tell them the story. After I did, the lady taking the donation said that she agrees it best they not promote how that fundraising was done.
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,543

    GIN1138 said:

    Murdoch's TalkTV to close down television channel and go online only

    After two years of dismal ratings, Talk TV is to close as a traditional TV channel and its content will run online only

    Hopefully the chronic loss-making GB News will follow.
    Today's The Rest is Entertainment podcast, helmed by Richard Osman and Marina Hyde, talks about GB News. Their highest rated show last week, in terms of viewership, was one of Farage's 7pm slots, with, I think off the top of my head, 126,000 viewers.

    A repeat of Midsomer Murders or something on some obscure channel was getting 200k+ viewers.

    But beyond those raw, very low, numbers, they both agree that that channel's reach is huge. Hyde puts that down to clips circulating on social media, Osman leans more towards an incestuous media giving them excess column inches.

    Whatever you think, it's certainly punching above its weight. Hyde said it aims to be the biggest news channel by 2028 and she thinks they'll get there - albeit the news channels have low numbers.

    Presumably the deep-pocketed citizens of nowhere who fund it see benefits in its influence and are happy to splurge the cash to keep the channel running in the expectation it will help deliver a more unequal, right-wing UK with poor public services, increased inequality and lax regulation in a wide range of areas. It's simply right-wing propaganda.

    The podcast looked at TV viewership in the UK more generally - last week 97% of the top 100 viewed programmes (on the overnight figs, not including catch up on streaming) were on BBC1 or ITV1. 67% of TV is consumed as its broadcast live. Which, Osman said, gives lie to the notion that everyone just streams everything now and live linear TV is dead - although its declining there's life in the old dog yet.

    Can't remember the top three programmes but it was something like Antiques Roadshow, Midsomer Murders and Death in Paradise.

    EastEnders is down to 2.something million people watching it live, Corrie on 3.something million. So the soaps are struggling.

    Local news, across the country in total, gets massive viewing figures.

    As Osman says, if you want to understand the UK, understand that it isn't people streaming Succession, it's people watching the One Show live on BBC1. It's a deeply unfashionable Britain that simply doesn't catch the attention of the chattering classes.

    An interesting episode, worth a listen.
    I think its quite hard for people who are fully into streaming their TV that others (and typically older viewers) don't so this, and do still look to see 'what's on now?'. I tend to do it myself although we will stream stuff too and use it to watch stuff, as with a 1 year old, getting to watch an hours TV must be done when he is in bed.
    My parents don't have access to streaming, but do use Sky+ still.

    Its not unlike a certain user banging on about no longer needing cash. Live TV is still useful to many many people.
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