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George Galloway is no longer the favourite to win Rochdale – politicalbetting.com

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  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    American flight attendants often belong to unions, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_of_Flight_Attendants

    With, naturally, seniority rules and often a combative attitude common to many unions. (The seniority rules often trap women in those jobs, since they are paid more than they could get elsewhere, but find their jobs less enjoyable as they age.)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    Cicero said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if this will the be the last by election of the 2019 to 2024 Parliament?

    Doubt it: Rishi's hojng long, so Blackpool South in a month or two.
    If you read James O'Briens excellent book you'll read about enough graft and corruption to keep the returning officers busy for quite a while. How this government's stayed in power for so long is a mystery
    They won a large majority in 2019 and the Parliament doesn't expire until January 2025.

    Its no different to how Brown hung on to the last minute in 2010, Major in 1997 etc. Must admit the Parliament is dragging now though.

    It would be in Con interests (though not necessarily Sunak's) to get it over and done with soon.
    I meant by several resignations if not from visits by the boys in blue
    Have you got time for an Oscars thread? If not, then any thoughts?

    Looks like Oppenheimer is favourite for many.
  • Foxy said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    If you did it by "what the name sounds like", you'd have a success rate somewhere in the high nineties percent, I reckon. Pretty easy to do on a computerised mailing list.
    It doesn't work for West Indians*, but determining ethnicity by name is pretty accurate for other ethnicities.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/psp.457

    *who have European surnames for historical reasons.
    Same issue for African Americans.

    Also for some Asians, for example in Peoria, Illinois "Robert Lee" be Black, White OR Chinese.

    In many cases middle names may be helpful, for example odds bit less that "Robert E. Lee" is a Black guy.

    Whereas better that "Robert X Lee" is. And that "Robert Chee Lee" is Asian American.

    All-in-all a fascinating topic, provided one is fascinated by suchlike.
  • My prediction is for a record low turnout.

    If there is a record low turnout, then the 8,000 votes Galloway received in the Batley & Spen by-election (2021) would be enough for more than 50% of the vote in Rochdale (2024).
    Never mind the 9,000 votes the LDs got in Mid Bedfordshire.
  • GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    BBC say Gorgeous is looking 'very confident'

    Perhaps he's taken a leaf out of the book of the dictators he shills for, and has made sure he'll win in Rochdale?
    BBC don't usually say things like that unless they have a pretty good reason
    Perhaps, although Galloway is so full of himself I doubt he'd anything other than he's "very confident"
    We need to salute his indefatigability :lol:
  • MPartridgeMPartridge Posts: 174
    Do we have an expected time for the Rochdale result?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274

    Do we have an expected time for the Rochdale result?

    No, but we think it might be a record low turnout, so hopefully not too late?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Are you in Rochdale, Rochdale? Any reports on the ground?
    Hell no. And may need a name change if they elect Galloway.
    "Pochdale Rioneers" stands vacant at the time of writing - act fast.
    Where do you stand on Galloway, Lucky?
    I don't know where to start really. There are a few things I agree with him on, but most I think he's gone so far down the rabbit hole he's out the other side. Primarily, he's a self-publicist. I'm not sure that will make him a good MP, but we shall see.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354

    Do we have an expected time for the Rochdale result?

    From the BBC live feed from the count, it does look like they have actually started counting - fifteen minutes ago the tellers were just sitting around chatting.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Having read the leaflets, I’m convinced Galloway will win. His leaflet to the white voters is actually pretty good.

    Rochdale really has rotten luck, doesn’t it?
    No wonder @RochdalePioneers moved as far away as possible.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    Cicero said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if this will the be the last by election of the 2019 to 2024 Parliament?

    Doubt it: Rishi's hojng long, so Blackpool South in a month or two.
    If you read James O'Briens excellent book you'll read about enough graft and corruption to keep the returning officers busy for quite a while. How this government's stayed in power for so long is a mystery
    They won a large majority in 2019 and the Parliament doesn't expire until January 2025.

    Its no different to how Brown hung on to the last minute in 2010, Major in 1997 etc. Must admit the Parliament is dragging now though.

    It would be in Con interests (though not necessarily Sunak's) to get it over and done with soon.
    I meant by several resignations if not from visits by the boys in blue
    Have you got time for an Oscars thread? If not, then any thoughts?

    Looks like Oppenheimer is favourite for many.
    I'm sure Oppenheimer will win best film director and actor. Poor Things should win best actress original screenplay costumes and most craft awards. My particular favourite was Zone of Interest which would be my choice for best foreign language film and best sound. It would would be my outsider for best film. Best documentary 20 Days in Mariupol. I really liked Anatomy of a fall. I'll have a look through the shortlist and see if I have time to put something together or at least a couple of good outsiders
    Thanks.

    The odds on Oppenheimer are so short that it is hard to see value, Poor Things has a few at better odds so I have had a dabble.

    I have also gone for Ryan Gosling for best supporting actor, as he was genius as Ken.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Are you in Rochdale, Rochdale? Any reports on the ground?
    Hell no. And may need a name change if they elect Galloway.
    "Pochdale Rioneers" stands vacant at the time of writing - act fast.
    Where do you stand on Galloway, Lucky?
    I don't know where to start really. There are a few things I agree with him on, but most I think he's gone so far down the rabbit hole he's out the other side. Primarily, he's a self-publicist. I'm not sure that will make him a good MP, but we shall see.
    He's a racist, a misogynist and a rape apologist who should be treated the same way his supporter Nick Griffin is.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    'Enlightening' thread on West Bank settlers, from a New Yorker writer.

    https://twitter.com/shane_bauer/status/1763211878086697324
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited February 29
    Roger is very good on film recommendations.
    So, surprisingly is Marquee Mark, even though his politics are beyond the pale for me.

    Blanche Livermore has very good taste in music, despite being some kind of right-wing loon.

    Leon, despite castigating everyone for their mid-wittery, has decidedly middle-brow tastes. Even on food I find he is not really to be trusted. It’s ironic that he’s a travel writer.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    MJW said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    Everyone knows what Galloway does - which is why even lots on the hard left won't touch him with a bargepole now. They know how he works, in a similar way to the BNP once did by deliberately stirring up tensions with foul bilge.
    Well he couldn't have done that so successfully if Israel wasn't in the middle of a " plausible genocide" supported by SKS
    Just say you hate Jews. It would save you the time of trying to mask it behind the foul nonsense you spew.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Having read the leaflets, I’m convinced Galloway will win. His leaflet to the white voters is actually pretty good.

    Rochdale really has rotten luck, doesn’t it?
    No wonder @RochdalePioneers moved as far away as possible.

    His leaflets are nonsense that he can never deliver, and he was piss poor as a constituency MP before.

    Nonetheless he has a roguish demagogue appeal and charisma.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Don't know how reliable this source is.

    "Mohammed Shafiq
    @mshafiquk

    BREAKING NEWS: family members of Azhar Ali confirm he has done poorly and will not even come to count here at the Rochdale Leisure Centre. #RochdaleByElection"

    https://twitter.com/mshafiquk/status/1763352178586968114
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,627

    Roger is very good on film recommendations.
    So, surprisingly is Marquee Mark, even though his politics are beyond the pale for me.

    Blanche Livermore has very good taste in music, despite being some kind of right-wing loon.

    Leon, despite castigating everyone for their mid-wittery, has decidedly middle-brow tastes. Even on food I find he is not really to be trusted. It’s ironic that he’s a travel writer.

    @Leon has to cater to his audience. Tickling the erogenous zones at the Spectator is mostly about middle-brow tastes and opinions.

    Everyone has to pay the rent.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Andy_JS said:

    Don't know how reliable this source is.

    "Mohammed Shafiq
    @mshafiquk

    BREAKING NEWS: family members of Azhar Ali confirm he has done poorly and will not even come to count here at the Rochdale Leisure Centre. #RochdaleByElection"

    https://twitter.com/mshafiquk/status/1763352178586968114

    Poor Azhar Ali.
    But I do wonder - despite a career in local politics - what did he actually do for Rochdale?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    I like George Galloway.

    What is your problem with him?

    He is a Socialist

    Oh I have answered my own question.

    Next response should contain the phrase Jezzbolah in a definitely not obsessed way.
    What’s my problem with him? He’s rocked up in a town that is broken. Which has significant historic race hate issues. To campaign specifically for the Muslim vote “For Rochdale, For Gaza”. What does Gaza have to do with Deeplish or Milnrow?

    A narcissistic fool stoking racial divisions for votes in another community that is riven enough. I can’t think of anyone worse- and they had Cyril Smith and Simon Danczuk.
    Galloway said Kuwait is "clearly a part of the greater Iraqi whole, stolen from the motherland by perfidious Albion" after Iraq invaded. Before the second Gulf War, he advised members of Saddam Hussein's government about how to deal with a potential American invasion.

    In 2005, he said the media are controlled by Zionists. He's taken money from the Iranian government. He supported Assad in Syria.
    Ah yes, but he's not Keir Starmer, and therefore should be supported.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    'Enlightening' thread on West Bank settlers, from a New Yorker writer.

    https://twitter.com/shane_bauer/status/1763211878086697324

    God that's a depressing thread.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    Andy_JS said:

    Don't know how reliable this source is.

    "Mohammed Shafiq
    @mshafiquk

    BREAKING NEWS: family members of Azhar Ali confirm he has done poorly and will not even come to count here at the Rochdale Leisure Centre. #RochdaleByElection"

    https://twitter.com/mshafiquk/status/1763352178586968114

    Poor Azhar Ali.
    But I do wonder - despite a career in local politics - what did he actually do for Rochdale?
    We get to chat about it on PB?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    Cicero said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if this will the be the last by election of the 2019 to 2024 Parliament?

    Doubt it: Rishi's hojng long, so Blackpool South in a month or two.
    If you read James O'Briens excellent book you'll read about enough graft and corruption to keep the returning officers busy for quite a while. How this government's stayed in power for so long is a mystery
    They won a large majority in 2019 and the Parliament doesn't expire until January 2025.

    Its no different to how Brown hung on to the last minute in 2010, Major in 1997 etc. Must admit the Parliament is dragging now though.

    It would be in Con interests (though not necessarily Sunak's) to get it over and done with soon.
    I meant by several resignations if not from visits by the boys in blue
    Have you got time for an Oscars thread? If not, then any thoughts?

    Looks like Oppenheimer is favourite for many.
    I'm sure Oppenheimer will win best film director and actor. Poor Things should win best actress original screenplay costumes and most craft awards. My particular favourite was Zone of Interest which would be my choice for best foreign language film and best sound. It would would be my outsider for best film. Best documentary 20 Days in Mariupol. I really liked Anatomy of a fall. I'll have a look through the shortlist and see if I have time to put something together or at least a couple of good outsiders
    Was discussing Zone of Interest this morning (your pre-tea time) with a friend who is a major cinemaphile.

    He was very impressed.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,897
    edited March 1

    Andy_JS said:

    Don't know how reliable this source is.

    "Mohammed Shafiq
    @mshafiquk

    BREAKING NEWS: family members of Azhar Ali confirm he has done poorly and will not even come to count here at the Rochdale Leisure Centre. #RochdaleByElection"

    https://twitter.com/mshafiquk/status/1763352178586968114

    Poor Azhar Ali.
    But I do wonder - despite a career in local politics - what did he actually do for Rochdale?
    That's quite sad. I have a feeling that if Galloway wins narrowly it will be in large part the events in Gaza. His whole campaign was based on it and today was the most unbearable so far and voters would have been hearing about the mayhem and misery throughout the day.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    They're talking about not finishing validating the postal votes until 1am.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,354
    BBC reporting that one of the independents is being tipped to do well. David Tully.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889

    Having read the leaflets, I’m convinced Galloway will win. His leaflet to the white voters is actually pretty good.

    Rochdale really has rotten luck, doesn’t it?
    No wonder @RochdalePioneers moved as far away as possible.

    Galloway also put out a letter to Muslim voters saying voting for him would send a message to Starmer on Gaza
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Looks like punters got it wrong earlier when they moved away from Galloway for a short time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    edited March 1
    Dan Hodges says local businessman and Independent David Tully will beat the main party candidates for second with Galloway winning based on early counting
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,867

    BBC reporting that one of the independents is being tipped to do well. David Tully.

    Yes, as posted in the last thread, bookmakers reported money for Tully.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    HYUFD said:

    Dan Hodges says local businessman and Independent David Tully will beat the main party candidates for second with Galloway winning based on early counting

    Also rumours that Cons third, and Azhar nowhere.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,867
    Galloway 1.02 on Betfair. They think it's all over...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    ... bookmakers reported money for Tully.

    ...and the cheques for free.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,889
    Tice on GB news says his candidate and campaigners have faced death threats and intimidation and is suspicious about surge in postal votes
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    HYUFD said:

    Tice on GB news says his candidate and campaigners have faced death threats and intimidation and is suspicious about surge in postal votes

    Trying to detract attention from another Reform election failure?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,867
    edited March 1
    Police called, polling station agent sacked after Rochdale rigging
    Galloway and agent call police, Returning Officer after breaches

    https://skwawkbox.org/2024/02/29/police-called-polling-station-agent-sacked-after-rochdale-rigging/

    Skwawkbox on pro-Labour corrupt practice, retweeted by Galloway.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Reform and Danczuk will be very disappointed if they're not in the top three.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    ... bookmakers reported money for Tully.

    ...and the cheques for free.

    Money for Nothing (and Your Chicks for Free)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wTP2RUD_cL0

    Bonus link - Weir Al Yankovic version (substituting theme song for "Beverly Hillbillies" TV show)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fODEn_v3FgM
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    A TimeGhost presentation on the tank battles of the Eastern front in 1944, where despite inferior armour the Soviets prevailed due to exhausted and unmaintained German tanks.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVCNgFfop_I
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,574
    39.7% turnout. Not bad for a by-election.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    Turnout 40%. Par, I think?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    carnforth said:

    39.7% turnout. Not bad for a by-election.

    The Gaza effect.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    viewcode said:

    A TimeGhost presentation on the tank battles of the Eastern front in 1944, where despite inferior armour the Soviets prevailed due to exhausted and unmaintained German tanks.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NVCNgFfop_I

    WW2 YouTube channel had a guy on recently (English I think) who wrote book on Soviet railroad system and its operational history under Russian then German management.

    Said the Germans contended Soviet system was crap, and that's why they had such a piss-poor performance re: logistics, including tank maintenance.

    When in actuality, the Soviet system was pretty good, and efficient . . . they way the Soviet organized and ran it.

    However, Germans insisted (to put it mildly) on doing it THEIR way . . . in this case off a cliff . . . or into the mud.

    Author did a LOT of research over many years, quite impressive and persuasive.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,517
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    Cicero said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if this will the be the last by election of the 2019 to 2024 Parliament?

    Doubt it: Rishi's hojng long, so Blackpool South in a month or two.
    If you read James O'Briens excellent book you'll read about enough graft and corruption to keep the returning officers busy for quite a while. How this government's stayed in power for so long is a mystery
    They won a large majority in 2019 and the Parliament doesn't expire until January 2025.

    Its no different to how Brown hung on to the last minute in 2010, Major in 1997 etc. Must admit the Parliament is dragging now though.

    It would be in Con interests (though not necessarily Sunak's) to get it over and done with soon.
    I meant by several resignations if not from visits by the boys in blue
    Have you got time for an Oscars thread? If not, then any thoughts?

    Looks like Oppenheimer is favourite for many.
    I'm sure Oppenheimer will win best film director and actor. Poor Things should win best actress original screenplay costumes and most craft awards. My particular favourite was Zone of Interest which would be my choice for best foreign language film and best sound. It would would be my outsider for best film. Best documentary 20 Days in Mariupol. I really liked Anatomy of a fall. I'll have a look through the shortlist and see if I have time to put something together or at least a couple of good outsiders
    I am hopeful that The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar will win Best Live Action Short. It was a perfect little film for me. But then I am a big Wes Anderson fan.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tice on GB news says his candidate and campaigners have faced death threats and intimidation and is suspicious about surge in postal votes

    Trying to detract attention from another Reform election failure?
    So you think he's lying?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    O/T

    This is one of the most awful cases I've ever read about, even if it was back in the late 70s.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2024/02/28/dead-in-the-water-prime-video-review-peta-frampton/

    "Dead in the Water, review: the 1970s murder that was finally solved via Facebook
    The murder of Chris Farmer and Peta Frampton in Belize was left unsolved for years due to police incompetence – but their families fought on"
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    This is one of the most awful cases I've ever read about, even if it was back in the late 70s.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tv/2024/02/28/dead-in-the-water-prime-video-review-peta-frampton/

    "Dead in the Water, review: the 1970s murder that was finally solved via Facebook
    The murder of Chris Farmer and Peta Frampton in Belize was left unsolved for years due to police incompetence – but their families fought on"

    Thanks. A love a good true crime mystery, especially those that are solved.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656
    Lab to finish 3rd

    Looks bleak for Streeting
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    GB News interviewing Chris Williamson, with the latter claiming Galloway is heading for a big victory.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656
    Andy_JS said:

    GB News interviewing Chris Williamson, with the latter claiming Galloway is heading for a big victory.

    Excellent
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Lab to finish 3rd

    Looks bleak for Streeting

    What’s it got to do with Streeting?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656
    MJW said:

    MJW said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    Everyone knows what Galloway does - which is why even lots on the hard left won't touch him with a bargepole now. They know how he works, in a similar way to the BNP once did by deliberately stirring up tensions with foul bilge.
    Well he couldn't have done that so successfully if Israel wasn't in the middle of a " plausible genocide" supported by SKS
    Just say you hate Jews. It would save you the time of trying to mask it behind the foul nonsense you spew.
    Cretinous comment.

    I love all the Jewish block that march for a ceasefire week after week.

    I love all Jewish Socialists who have been treated so poorly by the antisemite SKS.

    I am anti zinonism though that is of course a protected characteristic.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656
    GG on for a big win according to 5 live

    SKS fans please explain how your boy Luke Akehurst managed to totally balls this up and lose one of its safest seats.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,129

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    Cicero said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if this will the be the last by election of the 2019 to 2024 Parliament?

    Doubt it: Rishi's hojng long, so Blackpool South in a month or two.
    If you read James O'Briens excellent book you'll read about enough graft and corruption to keep the returning officers busy for quite a while. How this government's stayed in power for so long is a mystery
    They won a large majority in 2019 and the Parliament doesn't expire until January 2025.

    Its no different to how Brown hung on to the last minute in 2010, Major in 1997 etc. Must admit the Parliament is dragging now though.

    It would be in Con interests (though not necessarily Sunak's) to get it over and done with soon.
    I meant by several resignations if not from visits by the boys in blue
    Have you got time for an Oscars thread? If not, then any thoughts?

    Looks like Oppenheimer is favourite for many.
    I'm sure Oppenheimer will win best film director and actor. Poor Things should win best actress original screenplay costumes and most craft awards. My particular favourite was Zone of Interest which would be my choice for best foreign language film and best sound. It would would be my outsider for best film. Best documentary 20 Days in Mariupol. I really liked Anatomy of a fall. I'll have a look through the shortlist and see if I have time to put something together or at least a couple of good outsiders
    I am hopeful that The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar will win Best Live Action Short. It was a perfect little film for me. But then I am a big Wes Anderson fan.
    It's always been of my favourite Dahl short stories, and it was a wonderful adaption.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656

    Lab to finish 3rd

    Looks bleak for Streeting

    What’s it got to do with Streeting?
    His Constituency has a similar ethnic profile and as a massive LFI genocide complicit politician with a small majority must be at significant risk
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Result due at 2am now apparently
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,574

    Result due at 2am now apparently

    Thank Christ (or Allah). This Law & Order SVU episode is piss weak.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,867
    Health tech boss becomes biggest ever Tory donor with second £5m gift
    Frank Hester has now handed the party £10m in the past year

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/02/29/biggest-tory-donor-frank-hester-5m/

    Hester says it is because the Prime Minister understands AI.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,603
    https://twitter.com/henryriley1/status/1763373844297891867

    Tice on the offensive: "This has not been a free and fair election... By Christmas, we face the prospect of numerous extremist, anti-semitic lawmakers in the House of Commons."
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    https://twitter.com/henryriley1/status/1763373844297891867

    Tice on the offensive: "This has not been a free and fair election... By Christmas, we face the prospect of numerous extremist, anti-semitic lawmakers in the House of Commons."

    Who’s that assistant behind Tice?
    Is there a barbershop one can go to and ask for a “fascist”?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    Result due at 2am now apparently

    Apparently not :)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Looks very likely that David Tully, independent candidate, has come second.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,603
    Andy_JS said:

    Looks very likely that David Tully, independent candidate, has come second.

    He came across very well on Sky just now.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    What are the chances of George Galloway being carried out of the building on the shoulders of his supporters once the result has been announced?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of George Galloway being carried out of the building on the shoulders of his supporters once the result has been announced?

    Well he has eaten all the pies, so only if they are very strong
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,174
    Has a (likely) winning by election candidate ever arrived so late to the count ?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    Pulpstar said:

    Has a (likely) winning by election candidate ever arrived so late to the count ?

    George Galloway acting like a discourteous t**t? Shocked, I tell you, shocked.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    https://twitter.com/henryriley1/status/1763373844297891867

    Tice on the offensive: "This has not been a free and fair election... By Christmas, we face the prospect of numerous extremist, anti-semitic lawmakers in the House of Commons."

    Who’s that assistant behind Tice?
    Is there a barbershop one can go to and ask for a “fascist”?
    Skinheads age less well than fine whiskey?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    SKS fans please explain?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Galloway doesn't give a damn about Rochdale. He is motivated by hate.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,517

    Galloway doesn't give a damn about Rochdale. He is motivated by hate.

    Question is whether he will hang on at the GE?
    Second question is whether this is a sign of issues to come for SKS as far as Gaza influencing elections is concerned. I suspect SKS will be strongly hoping that there has been a proper sustainable ceasefire by the time the GE rolls around.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,274
    edited March 1

    Galloway doesn't give a damn about Rochdale. He is motivated by hate.

    Question is whether he will hang on at the GE?
    Second question is whether this is a sign of issues to come for SKS as far as Gaza influencing elections is concerned. I suspect SKS will be strongly hoping that there has been a proper sustainable ceasefire by the time the GE rolls around.
    It probably doesn't mean much this side of the election, but IMO it's another sign of big troubles to come for Labour and SKS when they form the government.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Azhar couldn’t even be bothered showing up at the count, after running a campaign promising to “send Starmer a message on Palestine”.

    Turns out he was just a low-class no-hoper.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Will Galloway hold on at the GE?
    Probably not.

    Is Labour vulnerable in a half dozen seats?
    Probably yes.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited March 1
    ..
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    Galloway doesn't give a damn about Rochdale. He is motivated by hate.

    Question is whether he will hang on at the GE?
    Second question is whether this is a sign of issues to come for SKS as far as Gaza influencing elections is concerned. I suspect SKS will be strongly hoping that there has been a proper sustainable ceasefire by the time the GE rolls around.
    I dunno. He may. As I keep saying, the main parties are offering neoliberal solutions that just don't work any more. Galloway, for all his extensive faults, is offering something else. It's not something I like, but that's not important.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Galloway 12,335 (39.65%)
    Tully 6,638 (21.34%)
    Con 3,731 (11.99%)
    Lab [disowned by party] 2,402 (7.72%)
    LD 2,164 (6.96%)
    ReformUK 1,968 (6.33%)
    William Howarth 523 (1.68%)
    Coleman 455 (1.46%)
    Green [disowned by party] 436 (1.40%)
    Michael Howarth 246 (0.79%)
    Loony 209 (0.67%)

    Total votes 31,107

    Galloway majority 5,697 (18.31%)

    I've ignored this one.

    Was Tully the latest former Labour candidate?
    Don't think so, he was just an independent candidate.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,174
    edited March 1
    With hindsight it appears the early market lurch to Labour was based on absolutely fuck all.
    Also I note the runner up wasn't even listed as a runner !

    Lib Dems won't be displeased after effectively sitting this one out and still beating Reform's much higher profile campaign.
    Not terrible for the Tories narrative wise too despite their dire vote share %

    Reform despite holding their deposit will be miffed not to grab a second that was probably the most gettable second in BE history.

    Of course the biggest issues from this BE aren't for any of the above but for Starmer.

    Tully camp will be chuffed to bits with their performance. Should be able to do well in the locals if he wants to run himself and a few others off the back of this.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    Andy_JS said:

    MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Galloway 12,335 (39.65%)
    Tully 6,638 (21.34%)
    Con 3,731 (11.99%)
    Lab [disowned by party] 2,402 (7.72%)
    LD 2,164 (6.96%)
    ReformUK 1,968 (6.33%)
    William Howarth 523 (1.68%)
    Coleman 455 (1.46%)
    Green [disowned by party] 436 (1.40%)
    Michael Howarth 246 (0.79%)
    Loony 209 (0.67%)

    Total votes 31,107

    Galloway majority 5,697 (18.31%)

    I've ignored this one.

    Was Tully the latest former Labour candidate?
    Don't think so, he was just an independent candidate.
    Thanks - I checked with this piece:
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/rochdale-by-election-candidates-list-ali-galloway-labour-b2504534.html

    He's a car mechanic and football fan.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Andy_JS said:

    Galloway 12,335 (39.65%)
    Tully 6,638 (21.34%)
    Con 3,731 (11.99%)
    Lab [disowned by party] 2,402 (7.72%)
    LD 2,164 (6.96%)
    ReformUK 1,968 (6.33%)
    William Howarth 523 (1.68%)
    Coleman 455 (1.46%)
    Green [disowned by party] 436 (1.40%)
    Michael Howarth 246 (0.79%)
    Loony 209 (0.67%)

    Total votes 31,107

    Galloway majority 5,697 (18.31%)

    بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

    Well done, GG.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,128
    edited March 1

    https://twitter.com/henryriley1/status/1763373844297891867

    Tice on the offensive: "This has not been a free and fair election... By Christmas, we face the prospect of numerous extremist, anti-semitic lawmakers in the House of Commons."

    Who’s that assistant behind Tice?
    Is there a barbershop one can go to and ask for a “fascist”?
    Isn't that a "Peaky Blinder gone to seed a bit" coiffure?




  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,867
    Pulpstar said:

    With hindsight it appears the early market lurch to Labour was based on absolutely fuck all.
    Also I note the runner up wasn't even listed as a runner !

    Lib Dems won't be displeased after effectively sitting this one out and still beating Reform's much higher profile campaign.
    Not terrible for the Tories narrative wise too despite their dire vote share %

    Reform despite holding their deposit will be miffed not to grab a second that was probably the most gettable second in BE history.

    Of course the biggest issues from this BE aren't for any of the above but for Starmer.

    Tully camp will be chuffed to bits with their performance. Should be able to do well in the locals if he wants to run himself and a few others off the back of this.

    Just Starmer? Or even mainly Starmer who at least has the plausible excuse that Labour did not campaign after disowning its candidate?

    All the national parties were beaten by Galloway and an independent. Labour, Conservative, LibDems, Greens, Reform nowhere. Even allowing for two disowned candidates, that is surely remarkable.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814
    GIN1138 said:

    SKS fans please explain?

    Er... um...

    :lol:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,656
    Andy_JS said:

    Galloway 12,335 (39.65%)
    Tully 6,638 (21.34%)
    Con 3,731 (11.99%)
    Lab [disowned by party] 2,402 (7.72%)
    LD 2,164 (6.96%)
    ReformUK 1,968 (6.33%)
    William Howarth 523 (1.68%)
    Coleman 455 (1.46%)
    Green [disowned by party] 436 (1.40%)
    Michael Howarth 246 (0.79%)
    Loony 209 (0.67%)

    Total votes 31,107

    Galloway majority 5,697 (18.31%)

    SKS Fans please explain
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    edited March 1

    Galloway doesn't give a damn about Rochdale. He is motivated by hate.

    There wasn't a credible non-populist candidate to take on Galloway in Rochdale, which is worrying, to put it mildly.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,580
    Oh dear, not even close. Another sad day for politics.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,814

    Andy_JS said:

    Galloway 12,335 (39.65%)
    Tully 6,638 (21.34%)
    Con 3,731 (11.99%)
    Lab [disowned by party] 2,402 (7.72%)
    LD 2,164 (6.96%)
    ReformUK 1,968 (6.33%)
    William Howarth 523 (1.68%)
    Coleman 455 (1.46%)
    Green [disowned by party] 436 (1.40%)
    Michael Howarth 246 (0.79%)
    Loony 209 (0.67%)

    Total votes 31,107

    Galloway majority 5,697 (18.31%)

    SKS Fans please explain
    May need to change my avatar :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,174

    Pulpstar said:

    With hindsight it appears the early market lurch to Labour was based on absolutely fuck all.
    Also I note the runner up wasn't even listed as a runner !

    Lib Dems won't be displeased after effectively sitting this one out and still beating Reform's much higher profile campaign.
    Not terrible for the Tories narrative wise too despite their dire vote share %

    Reform despite holding their deposit will be miffed not to grab a second that was probably the most gettable second in BE history.

    Of course the biggest issues from this BE aren't for any of the above but for Starmer.

    Tully camp will be chuffed to bits with their performance. Should be able to do well in the locals if he wants to run himself and a few others off the back of this.

    Just Starmer? Or even mainly Starmer who at least has the plausible excuse that Labour did not campaign after disowning its candidate?

    All the national parties were beaten by Galloway and an independent. Labour, Conservative, LibDems, Greens, Reform nowhere. Even allowing for two disowned candidates, that is surely remarkable.
    Starmer's ideal result would have been Ali being about a thousand votes either ahead or behind Galloway. The complete thumping, even of a disowned candidate isn't a great sign. Reform doing better would also have been good for him as it would have put Sunak under the pump more.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    Reform are going to be shouting about Islamist takeover and vote-rigging all the way up to the election.

    The question for Sunak is whether the Tories follow.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,867
    Eabhal said:

    Reform are going to be shouting about Islamist takeover and vote-rigging all the way up to the election.

    The question for Sunak is whether the Tories follow.

    For all his many faults, Galloway was not an Islamist candidate.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,867
    Happy St David's Day. Dydd Gŵyl Dewi Hapus.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,643
    A

    Eabhal said:

    Reform are going to be shouting about Islamist takeover and vote-rigging all the way up to the election.

    The question for Sunak is whether the Tories follow.

    For all his many faults, Galloway was not an Islamist candidate.
    I'm not sure that matters to Tice et al

    #politics
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,239
    edited March 1
    Andy_JS said:

    Galloway 12,335 (39.65%)
    Tully 6,638 (21.34%)
    Con 3,731 (11.99%)
    Lab [disowned by party] 2,402 (7.72%)
    LD 2,164 (6.96%)
    ReformUK 1,968 (6.33%)
    William Howarth 523 (1.68%)
    Coleman 455 (1.46%)
    Green [disowned by party] 436 (1.40%)
    Michael Howarth 246 (0.79%)
    Loony 209 (0.67%)

    Total votes 31,107

    Galloway majority 5,697 (18.31%)

    Not been following closely but my takeaways

    - party machine* really matters unless you can cut through in some other way
    - the radicalised block vote could really be a problem for Labour. They get it by default at the moment but it’s a strategic vulnerability

    * I mean that it was an interesting case where we had a logo on the ballot but no machine/GOTV. Nick Palmer’s rule of thumb was that a good personal vote is 1,000-1,500 so perhaps the logo doubles that?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,553
    Galloway is a far better politician than Farage.

    Discuss. ;)
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,033
    The only thing that by-elections tell you is that by-elections don't tell you anything.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555
    Pulpstar said:

    With hindsight it appears the early market lurch to Labour was based on absolutely fuck all.
    Also I note the runner up wasn't even listed as a runner !

    Lib Dems won't be displeased after effectively sitting this one out and still beating Reform's much higher profile campaign.
    Not terrible for the Tories narrative wise too despite their dire vote share %

    Reform despite holding their deposit will be miffed not to grab a second that was probably the most gettable second in BE history.

    Of course the biggest issues from this BE aren't for any of the above but for Starmer.

    Tully camp will be chuffed to bits with their performance. Should be able to do well in the locals if he wants to run himself and a few others off the back of this.

    "Lib Dems won't be displeased"

    Hmmm..... This was a LibDem seat until 2010. Piss-poor result for them.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,555

    Galloway is a far better politician than Farage.

    Discuss. ;)

    Galloway. Stood in 9 different Westminster seats, won in 5 of them.

    Farage. Stood in 6 different Westminster seats, won in 0 of them.
This discussion has been closed.