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George Galloway is no longer the favourite to win Rochdale – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited March 12 in General
imageGeorge Galloway is no longer the favourite to win Rochdale – politicalbetting.com

This morning Galloway was the favourite this morning to win the by election but as we can see now Azhar Ali, the official but disowned Labour candidate, has become the favourite but the betting markets can often be wrong.

Read the full story here

«13

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    First unlike Galloway, I hope.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468
    I still think it'll be Ali, although I don't know that I'd take the new odds.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Actually, this might have been the election where I finally voted Loony! :D
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468
    GIN1138 said:

    Actually, this might have been the election where I finally voted Loony! :D

    I was attracted by the candidate's policy on ending homelessness for hedgehogs.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited February 29
    "A rotten candidate for a rotten borough"?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    It’s going to be really weird if Ali wins on an unofficial/official Labour ticket. How will he be treated by Starmer and the PLP?

    I think a Galloway win will be easier for Sir Keir, as he will simply deride him / ignore him.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    Anabobazina said:

    It’s going to be really weird if Ali wins on an unofficial/official Labour ticket. How will he be treated by Starmer and the PLP?

    I think a Galloway win will be easier for Sir Keir, as he will simply deride him / ignore him.

    Starmer can probably ignore Ali for the few short months before the GE.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    I hope Ali makes it, but I still think Galloway by 500.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Anabobazina said:

    It’s going to be really weird if Ali wins on an unofficial/official Labour ticket. How will he be treated by Starmer and the PLP?

    I think a Galloway win will be easier for Sir Keir, as he will simply deride him / ignore him.

    I can't see SKS being in a hurry to rush up to Rochdale in either case...
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    PBers, please see my learned discourse re: "playing in Peoria" at tail end of previous thread.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    NickPalmer said:

    I hope Ali makes it, but I still think Galloway by 500.

    Not a fan of the Gorgeous One, Dr Nick?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Are we sure no-one else is in with a shout? The whole thing is so bizarre nothing much would surprise me.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    CON gain Rochdale???!
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    Banter heuristic says the Conservatives will win it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    "A rotten candidate for a rotten borough"?

    Objection!!!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    londonpubman said:

    CON gain Rochdale???!

    The Con candidate went on holiday half way through their "campaign" Tells you everything you need to know about Con prospects here...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,198
    Odds on how quickly he’s suspended if he wins? I mean he won’t have many mates, and the implications of the standards committee have changed a bit since his day.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    BBC say Gorgeous is looking 'very confident'
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,121
    Galloway very confident says BBC pol editor just now.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    rottenborough said:

    Galloway very confident says BBC pol editor just now.

    Fuck.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Roger said:

    BBC say Gorgeous is looking 'very confident'

    Perhaps he's taken a leaf out of the book of the dictators he shills for, and has made sure he'll win in Rochdale?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Very thin market, but Galloway is the favourite again.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    Wont it be awful if the disgraced wax-Labour candidate wins?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    I'm off to bed.

    I hope Galloway isn't an MP when I wake up.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    BBC say Gorgeous is looking 'very confident'

    Perhaps he's taken a leaf out of the book of the dictators he shills for, and has made sure he'll win in Rochdale?
    BBC don't usually say things like that unless they have a pretty good reason
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    rottenborough said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    "A rotten candidate for a rotten borough"?

    Objection!!!
    Apology!!!!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    BBC say Gorgeous is looking 'very confident'

    Perhaps he's taken a leaf out of the book of the dictators he shills for, and has made sure he'll win in Rochdale?
    BBC don't usually say things like that unless they have a pretty good reason
    Perhaps, although Galloway is so full of himself I doubt he'd anything other than he's "very confident"
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Galloway isn't as toxic in the red wall as you might think. Pro worker, tough on migration and modern values.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Wonder if this will the be the last by election of the 2019 to 2024 Parliament?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468
    Anabobazina said:

    It’s going to be really weird if Ali wins on an unofficial/official Labour ticket. How will he be treated by Starmer and the PLP?

    I think a Galloway win will be easier for Sir Keir, as he will simply deride him / ignore him.

    I don't think it will be weird for anyone other than Ali. This has happened before. The Commons is full of people suspended from the whip, albeit mostly Tories.

    If we were partway through a Parliament, I would expect Labour to quietly re-admit him after a suitable pause and some re-training, as happened with Hanvey.* The issue is we're so close to the general election. Do Labour take him back as a candidate? Do they stand someone else in the constituency? If so, does Ali try standing as an independent -- surely he knows he won't win as an independent?

    Other examples: David Ward in 2013 with the LibDems, Naz Shah in 2016 with Labour, Anne Marie Morris in 2017 with the Conservatives, Neil Coyle in 2022/3 with Labour.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited February 29
    FrankBooth said:

    Galloway isn't as toxic in the red wall as you might think. Pro worker, tough on migration and modern values.

    He certainly has his constituency, no doubt about that. He wouldn't have been elected to Parliament so many times if he didn't.

    Wonder how Mrs Duffy voted today? Thinking Reform, maybe?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    edited February 29
    FrankBooth said:

    Galloway isn't as toxic in the red wall as you might think. Pro worker, tough on migration and modern values.

    Rochdale’s not red wall, but what’s the basis for saying that? His appeal seems to be entirely to Muslim voters and based on weaponising Middle East politics. A dangerous, dangerous man.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    I would have voted GG

    But it's a win win for me both from an anti SKS and betting point of view.

    So an early night calls
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    bigjohnowls said:

    I would have voted GG

    Why does this not surprise me?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    bigjohnowls said:

    I would have voted GG

    But it's a win win for me both from an anti SKS and betting point of view.

    So an early night calls

    I knew you were a Tory but I didn’t realise you were a Baathist too.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Perhaps Gillian Duffy and Gordon Brown might comment about those bigoted candidates standing for election in Rochdale this evening.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,124
    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if this will the be the last by election of the 2019 to 2024 Parliament?

    Doubt it: Rishi's hojng long, so Blackpool South in a month or two.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    TimS said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I would have voted GG

    But it's a win win for me both from an anti SKS and betting point of view.

    So an early night calls

    I knew you were a Tory but I didn’t realise you were a Baathist too.
    You knew I was a Tory

    Yeah right
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    bigjohnowls said:

    I would have voted GG

    But it's a win win for me both from an anti SKS and betting point of view.

    So an early night calls

    Well of course you would.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Are you in Rochdale, Rochdale? Any reports on the ground?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited February 29
    Cicero said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if this will the be the last by election of the 2019 to 2024 Parliament?

    Doubt it: Rishi's hojng long, so Blackpool South in a month or two.
    Is he? @MoonRabbit says election will be May?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    I've just had £8.50 on Reform UK to win Rochdale at 44.12
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,449
    TimS said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Galloway isn't as toxic in the red wall as you might think. Pro worker, tough on migration and modern values.

    Rochdale’s not red wall, but what’s the basis for saying that? His appeal seems to be entirely to Muslim voters and based on weaponising Middle East politics. A dangerous, dangerous man.
    Oh, George is quite happy to make himself Gorgeous for white voters as well;

    https://twitter.com/SimonLeporiLD/status/1763303102218740074
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    PBers, please see my learned discourse re: "playing in Peoria" at tail end of previous thread.

    Isn't it more metaphorical?, like "the man on the Clapham omnibus". Judges don't really conduct vox pops on public transport in South London in order to decide points of law.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    GIN1138 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Are you in Rochdale, Rochdale? Any reports on the ground?
    Hell no. And may need a name change if they elect Galloway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    No, but names are pretty distinctively Muslim or not, so fairly easy to pick out the Muslims when writing a canvassing list.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,449
    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    If you did it by "what the name sounds like", you'd have a success rate somewhere in the high nineties percent, I reckon. Pretty easy to do on a computerised mailing list.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 812
    Am not bothering to stay up for Rochdale but I've stuck a small amount (£100) on Labour at these odds (best price was 3 and you'll get filled there at present but my average worse as I started doing it a few minutes too soon), against what I think my sober judgement would be. I assume the spike is because of the large number of postal votes which are rather suspicious from an insular community POV. But of course that insular community may just as well have been voting Ali as Galloway.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    RochdalePioneers said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Are you in Rochdale, Rochdale? Any reports on the ground?
    Hell no. And may need a name change if they elect Galloway.
    New Scot Pioneers?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    I like George Galloway.

    What is your problem with him?

    He is a Socialist

    Oh I have answered my own question.

    Next response should contain the phrase Jezzbolah in a definitely not obsessed way.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    edited February 29
    Cicero said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if this will the be the last by election of the 2019 to 2024 Parliament?

    Doubt it: Rishi's hojng long, so Blackpool South in a month or two.
    If you read James O'Briens excellent book-How they broke Britain- you'll read about enough graft and corruption to keep the returning officers busy for quite a while. How this government's stayed in power for so long is a mystery
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    edited February 29
    Stuartinromford said:

    TimS said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Galloway isn't as toxic in the red wall as you might think. Pro worker, tough on migration and modern values.

    Rochdale’s not red wall, but what’s the basis for saying that? His appeal seems to be entirely to Muslim voters and based on weaponising Middle East politics. A dangerous, dangerous man.
    Oh, George is quite happy to make himself Gorgeous for white voters as well;

    https://twitter.com/SimonLeporiLD/status/1763303102218740074
    And the appalling letter sent to BJO-says-its-impossible Muslim voters

    https://x.com/mm_newsonline/status/1763294941155840311?s=46
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,449
    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    GG is the sort of man for who the "are we the baddies?" meme was invented.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468
    Foxy said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    No, but names are pretty distinctively Muslim or not, so fairly easy to pick out the Muslims when writing a canvassing list.
    Indeed. There is software that can identify ethnicity from name that is used for research purposes. See https://analysisfunction.civilservice.gov.uk/blog/attributing-ethnicity-using-someones-name/
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,736
    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    Everyone knows what Galloway does - which is why even lots on the hard left won't touch him with a bargepole now. They know how he works, in a similar way to the BNP once did by deliberately stirring up tensions with foul bilge.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Think I might put £1k on Reform. That should shift the market and get people all a flutter.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited February 29
    Roger said:

    Cicero said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if this will the be the last by election of the 2019 to 2024 Parliament?

    Doubt it: Rishi's hojng long, so Blackpool South in a month or two.
    If you read James O'Briens excellent book you'll read about enough graft and corruption to keep the returning officers busy for quite a while. How this government's stayed in power for so long is a mystery
    They won a large majority in 2019 and the Parliament doesn't expire until January 2025.

    Its no different to how Brown hung on to the last minute in 2010, Major in 1997 etc. Must admit the Parliament is dragging now though.

    It would be in Con interests (though not necessarily Sunak's) to get it over and done with soon.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    My prediction is for a record low turnout.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 812
    FrankBooth said:

    Think I might put £1k on Reform. That should shift the market and get people all a flutter.

    can you gimme a couple of minutes notice pls
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    LostPassword said:

    My prediction is for a record low turnout.

    Yes you could be right.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    FrankBooth said:

    Think I might put £1k on Reform. That should shift the market and get people all a flutter.

    But would be a waste of money
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    Stuartinromford said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    If you did it by "what the name sounds like", you'd have a success rate somewhere in the high nineties percent, I reckon. Pretty easy to do on a computerised mailing list.
    It doesn't work for West Indians*, but determining ethnicity by name is pretty accurate for other ethnicities.

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/psp.457

    *who have European surnames for historical reasons.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    I've upped my stake on Reform UK. £23.42 at 46.10.

    I'm not expeting to win but he might be the NOTA candidate.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    MJW said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    Everyone knows what Galloway does - which is why even lots on the hard left won't touch him with a bargepole now. They know how he works, in a similar way to the BNP once did by deliberately stirring up tensions with foul bilge.
    Well he couldn't have done that so successfully if Israel wasn't in the middle of a " plausible genocide" supported by SKS
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    TimS said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    I would have voted GG

    But it's a win win for me both from an anti SKS and betting point of view.

    So an early night calls

    I knew you were a Tory but I didn’t realise you were a Baathist too.
    Baathist crazy (anag.)
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    Reform UK now 50.0. Mr Market disagrees with my assessment!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,949
    "Revealed: how Putin plans to flood West with migrants
    Russia using militias in Africa to ‘weaponise’ flows of people in attempts to influence elections
    Hayley Dixon"

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/02/29/putin-russia-wagner-militia-africa-immigration-europe/
  • TimSTimS Posts: 13,214
    Stuartinromford said:

    TimS said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Galloway isn't as toxic in the red wall as you might think. Pro worker, tough on migration and modern values.

    Rochdale’s not red wall, but what’s the basis for saying that? His appeal seems to be entirely to Muslim voters and based on weaponising Middle East politics. A dangerous, dangerous man.
    Oh, George is quite happy to make himself Gorgeous for white voters as well;

    https://twitter.com/SimonLeporiLD/status/1763303102218740074
    Why am I not surprised?

    Scan over Britain’s contemporary politicians to identify who might, in different circumstances and less well established democracies, take a country in a dark direction, and GG is up there in a pretty exclusive club. Farage, maybe. JRM. Few others have the demagogic charisma.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,949
    Labour suddenly out to 7.4 in Rochdale with BE.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/en/politics/uk-by-elections/rochdale-by-election-betting-1.224220834
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    Returning to the very sad news about Dave Myers, I thought this was a fine piece of writing this afternoon from Stuart Heritage in the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/feb/29/genuinely-groundbreaking-how-the-hairy-bikers-dave-myers-redefined-masculinity-on-british-tv
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Stuartinromford said:

    TimS said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Galloway isn't as toxic in the red wall as you might think. Pro worker, tough on migration and modern values.

    Rochdale’s not red wall, but what’s the basis for saying that? His appeal seems to be entirely to Muslim voters and based on weaponising Middle East politics. A dangerous, dangerous man.
    Oh, George is quite happy to make himself Gorgeous for white voters as well;

    https://twitter.com/SimonLeporiLD/status/1763303102218740074
    Lol MRGA oh dear what a man.

    Win by any means
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Returning to the very sad news about Dave Myers, I thought this was a fine piece of writing this afternoon from Stuart Heritage in the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/feb/29/genuinely-groundbreaking-how-the-hairy-bikers-dave-myers-redefined-masculinity-on-british-tv

    RIP.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Stuartinromford said:

    TimS said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Galloway isn't as toxic in the red wall as you might think. Pro worker, tough on migration and modern values.

    Rochdale’s not red wall, but what’s the basis for saying that? His appeal seems to be entirely to Muslim voters and based on weaponising Middle East politics. A dangerous, dangerous man.
    Oh, George is quite happy to make himself Gorgeous for white voters as well;

    https://twitter.com/SimonLeporiLD/status/1763303102218740074
    'There'll be no grooming gangs on my watch. Even if I have to arrest them myself.'

    I'll hold him to that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Returning to the very sad news about Dave Myers, I thought this was a fine piece of writing this afternoon from Stuart Heritage in the Guardian.

    https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2024/feb/29/genuinely-groundbreaking-how-the-hairy-bikers-dave-myers-redefined-masculinity-on-british-tv

    Yes, the Hairy Bikers, and "Mortimer and Whiehouse Gone Fishing" are very positive TV examples of male friendships.

    Male friendships are a bit different to female ones, and usually centre around doing something together like cooking or fishing, even when when not much cooking or fishing actually happens.

    RIP.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    I've never stayed up for a by election result in the past and don't intend to now.

    Looking forward to Mr Danzuk and my £50k in the morning.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MJW said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    Everyone knows what Galloway does - which is why even lots on the hard left won't touch him with a bargepole now. They know how he works, in a similar way to the BNP once did by deliberately stirring up tensions with foul bilge.
    Well he couldn't have done that so successfully if Israel wasn't in the middle of a " plausible genocide" supported by SKS
    Do you really think the IDF (or Hamas) would stop the slaughter if Starmer opined on the subject?

    I really don't think they are interested in UK public opinion.

    The whole debate in the UK over a ceasefire is tokenistic student politics writ large.
    Tell your son he is a tokenistic shit
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468
    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    I like George Galloway.

    What is your problem with him?

    He is a Socialist

    Oh I have answered my own question.

    Next response should contain the phrase Jezzbolah in a definitely not obsessed way.
    What’s my problem with him? He’s rocked up in a town that is broken. Which has significant historic race hate issues. To campaign specifically for the Muslim vote “For Rochdale, For Gaza”. What does Gaza have to do with Deeplish or Milnrow?

    A narcissistic fool stoking racial divisions for votes in another community that is riven enough. I can’t think of anyone worse- and they had Cyril Smith and Simon Danczuk.
    Galloway said Kuwait is "clearly a part of the greater Iraqi whole, stolen from the motherland by perfidious Albion" after Iraq invaded. Before the second Gulf War, he advised members of Saddam Hussein's government about how to deal with a potential American invasion.

    In 2005, he said the media are controlled by Zionists. He's taken money from the Iranian government. He supported Assad in Syria.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    bigjohnowls said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MJW said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    Everyone knows what Galloway does - which is why even lots on the hard left won't touch him with a bargepole now. They know how he works, in a similar way to the BNP once did by deliberately stirring up tensions with foul bilge.
    Well he couldn't have done that so successfully if Israel wasn't in the middle of a " plausible genocide" supported by SKS
    Do you really think the IDF (or Hamas) would stop the slaughter if Starmer opined on the subject?

    I really don't think they are interested in UK public opinion.

    The whole debate in the UK over a ceasefire is tokenistic student politics writ large.
    Tell your son he is a tokenistic shit
    I wouldn't use that scatological term, but I have made exactly that point to him.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MJW said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    Everyone knows what Galloway does - which is why even lots on the hard left won't touch him with a bargepole now. They know how he works, in a similar way to the BNP once did by deliberately stirring up tensions with foul bilge.
    Well he couldn't have done that so successfully if Israel wasn't in the middle of a " plausible genocide" supported by SKS
    Do you really think the IDF (or Hamas) would stop the slaughter if Starmer opined on the subject?

    I really don't think they are interested in UK public opinion.

    The whole debate in the UK over a ceasefire is tokenistic student politics writ large.
    SKS determination to win musical chairs (the genocide version) has lost a safe Labour seat
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    edited February 29
    bigjohnowls said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MJW said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    Everyone knows what Galloway does - which is why even lots on the hard left won't touch him with a bargepole now. They know how he works, in a similar way to the BNP once did by deliberately stirring up tensions with foul bilge.
    Well he couldn't have done that so successfully if Israel wasn't in the middle of a " plausible genocide" supported by SKS
    Do you really think the IDF (or Hamas) would stop the slaughter if Starmer opined on the subject?

    I really don't think they are interested in UK public opinion.

    The whole debate in the UK over a ceasefire is tokenistic student politics writ large.
    SKS determination to win musical chairs (the genocide version) has lost a safe Labour seat
    We don't know that yet.

    In any case he will win it back later this year.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MJW said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    Everyone knows what Galloway does - which is why even lots on the hard left won't touch him with a bargepole now. They know how he works, in a similar way to the BNP once did by deliberately stirring up tensions with foul bilge.
    Well he couldn't have done that so successfully if Israel wasn't in the middle of a " plausible genocide" supported by SKS
    Do you really think the IDF (or Hamas) would stop the slaughter if Starmer opined on the subject?

    I really don't think they are interested in UK public opinion.

    The whole debate in the UK over a ceasefire is tokenistic student politics writ large.
    Tell your son he is a tokenistic shit
    I wouldn't use that scatological term, but I have made exactly that point to him.

    I bet he thinks you are wrong and that calling for a ceasefire is extremely important amongst all right thinking medics and Christians.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,949
    stjohn said:

    I've upped my stake on Reform UK. £23.42 at 46.10.

    I'm not expeting to win but he might be the NOTA candidate.

    Good luck with your bets.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,821
    RochdalePioneers said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Are you in Rochdale, Rochdale? Any reports on the ground?
    Hell no. And may need a name change if they elect Galloway.
    "Pochdale Rioneers" stands vacant at the time of writing - act fast.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468
    Newsnight reporting on Rochdale... reporting Galloway as entirely confident he has won. :/ But Nick Robinson is less convinced, thinks Galloway may be being misled by which ballot boxes from which areas get counted first.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Are you in Rochdale, Rochdale? Any reports on the ground?
    Hell no. And may need a name change if they elect Galloway.
    "Pochdale Rioneers" stands vacant at the time of writing - act fast.
    Where do you stand on Galloway, Lucky?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    bigjohnowls said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Foxy said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    MJW said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Inside the Galloway campaign. Knocking on doors only with Muslim voters:

    https://x.com/bylinetv/status/1762965474441142740?s=46

    Tommy Robertsons ex cameraman reports.
    Even the dodgiest of media can show the truth. “Oh that word has just been left on the template when we printed the sheets” - bullshit
    “That goes straight over my head, I don’t know anything about campaigning” - bullshit
    Well he reports that on a copy of the electoral register they are filtering by Muslim

    If you know anything about canvassing or the electoral register you will know that isn't true.

    Can the register filter by Muslim? No. Can software you are - as they said - tracking previous knocks? Yes.

    Again, you are defending Galloway. Which is a new low even for you.
    Everyone knows what Galloway does - which is why even lots on the hard left won't touch him with a bargepole now. They know how he works, in a similar way to the BNP once did by deliberately stirring up tensions with foul bilge.
    Well he couldn't have done that so successfully if Israel wasn't in the middle of a " plausible genocide" supported by SKS
    Do you really think the IDF (or Hamas) would stop the slaughter if Starmer opined on the subject?

    I really don't think they are interested in UK public opinion.

    The whole debate in the UK over a ceasefire is tokenistic student politics writ large.
    Tell your son he is a tokenistic shit
    I wouldn't use that scatological term, but I have made exactly that point to him.

    I bet he thinks you are wrong and that calling for a ceasefire is extremely important amongst all right thinking medics and Christians.
    It wouldn't be the first or last time that he didn't listen to his dad!

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Foxy said:

    Watching BBCQT for the first time in ages.

    We are really going to miss having Caroline Lucas as an MP when she stands down, she is always eloquent and articulate, and mostly right.

    She'll probably become Dame Caroline and be sent to the Lords! :D
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,909
    LostPassword said:

    My prediction is for a record low turnout.

    If there is a record low turnout, then the 8,000 votes Galloway received in the Batley & Spen by-election (2021) would be enough for more than 50% of the vote in Rochdale (2024).
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,319
    stjohn said:

    Reform UK now 50.0. Mr Market disagrees with my assessment!

    You should call it a value bet. You only have to be right 2% of the time.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,468
    GIN1138 said:

    Foxy said:

    Watching BBCQT for the first time in ages.

    We are really going to miss having Caroline Lucas as an MP when she stands down, she is always eloquent and articulate, and mostly right.

    She'll probably become Dame Caroline and be sent to the Lords! :D
    She would join noted Brexiteer Jenny Jones and my near neighbour Natalie Bennett in the Greens' Lords contingent.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,972
    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    Cicero said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Wonder if this will the be the last by election of the 2019 to 2024 Parliament?

    Doubt it: Rishi's hojng long, so Blackpool South in a month or two.
    If you read James O'Briens excellent book you'll read about enough graft and corruption to keep the returning officers busy for quite a while. How this government's stayed in power for so long is a mystery
    They won a large majority in 2019 and the Parliament doesn't expire until January 2025.

    Its no different to how Brown hung on to the last minute in 2010, Major in 1997 etc. Must admit the Parliament is dragging now though.

    It would be in Con interests (though not necessarily Sunak's) to get it over and done with soon.
    I meant by several resignations if not from visits by the boys in blue
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,122
    First result of the night:

    Central & Northgate (Great Yarmouth) Council By-Election Result:

    🌹 LAB: 52.6% (+6.5)
    🌳 CON: 32.3% (+7.7)
    🔶 LDM: 15.2% (+3.3)

    No IND (-17.6) as previous.

    Labour HOLD.
    Changes w/ 2023.
This discussion has been closed.