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How many Tory by-election losses will revert back at GE2024? – politicalbetting.com
How many Tory by-election losses will revert back at GE2024? – politicalbetting.com
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But also, it's one way of opening up a safe seat to a bright young thing who could be a future Prime Minister. Might be worth returning to these seats (or whichever seats they're mostly in) after the general election.
Inter alia, watching tractor porn, having a hissy fit that you weren't given a peerage, waving your cock in an underling's face, groping somebody and the PM lied to cover your arse and it saw the PM rightly ousted, lying to the Mother of Parliaments about partying during Covid-19.
Just noticed what a remarkable claim you were making on the prior thread
You believe you’ve had prophetic dreams? Do you mind describing one? No need for names and ranks obvs
This subject fascinates me, particularly after I read this famous and remarkable article
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/03/04/the-psychiatrist-who-believed-people-could-tell-the-future
Now a book and a movie I believe
The evidence of people having dreams that foretold Aberfan is quite compelling. Mad, but compelling
Please explain?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68332923
Things that make you go hmm.
Perhaps more? Many of the Lab and LD wins were in very safe seats that you would normally expect the Tories to hold, even if they have a terrible general election result.
When it comes to holding a by-election gain, does it help to have the by-election a long time before the general election, so the winning MP has plenty of time to become known locally, or does it help to have it only a short time before the by-election, so the memories of the by-election campaign are fresher in people's minds?
If we look at the 1997 general, as a comparable period, the LibDems held Newbury but lost Christchurch, both by-elections very early in the Parliament. Labour held Wirral South, which was the last by-election of the Parliament. This is, clearly, a small sample size!
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/neil-parish-banged-up-tractor-porn-b2439583.html
The former are easy to explain (imo) as that was my normal state throughout my undistinguished academic career.
The latter are much more puzzling as I have never been in such a situation outside of my dreams.
When you think about it the whole nudity taboo/embarrassment thing is deeply weird. At what point in our evolution did humans become ashamed of their bodies, and why? (I'm going to discount the explanation in Genesis, intriguing though it is.)
Tiverton - LD hold
Somerton - LD hold
Chesham - Depends on how they do during the campaign. In the balance
Shropshire - Tory gain unless the LDs are having a really really good night.
It was cropped for the picture.
Funny old world.
The incidents were quite personal, but also prosaic. Meeting people that I hadn't seen for months for example. Not quite the same as deja but, but a related phenomenon I suppose.
Shadow health secretary apologises to supporters in town following suspension of the party’s candidate in an anti-Semitism row"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/02/19/i-would-spoil-rochdale-by-election-ballot-says-streeting/
https://twitter.com/piesaac/status/1758739093570379932
Right. The leaders of Referendum 88 were not prominent polticians, but ordinary citizens. The most prominent were often Japanese-Americans.
But I will repeat that I think it nearly certain that parts of the state government have found ways to get around our civil rights laws.
That’s a profound question
I believe the Freudian explanation is this: we originally went naked - of course - and lived in climates suitable for that. Africa, the tropics, then we emigrated to colder or harsher climates and began to wear furs. Then these became ways of displaying status and also of hiding our most important bits!
Humans began to find the process itself erotic. The unveiling. So they deliberately made more and more veils so that the privilege of taking them off would become evermore exciting
Imagine you live in a deeply conservative Islamic country and never see a bare ankle. A knee would drive you wild. So an entirely naked woman will be sensationally arousing - so we deliberately starve ourselves to enioy the feast, is the theory, and we also eroticise what is already necessary - clothing
See shoes. We need shoes. Even in Africa shoes are generally better than no shoes. But my god we have eroticised footwear, universally
How is being a vegan woke?
The current polling has Labour anywhere between 40-48% of the vote, and the Tories in the low 20% area. Even the byelections we have seen have been more in line with the mood at a given time then historical trends. To be honest, there may be an argument to be made that even some of these that the Tories held could be at risk now, rather than the opposite of saying that some won by Labour or LD could revert back to blue.
And let's not even think about John Deere's seed drill.
I recommend reading that amazing article, if you haven’t already (the book and movie are less good, I’ve heard)
If time is not linear or does not exist at all as we understand it, then the physics of prophecy is much less far fetched
Right now, with serious physicists claiming that SORA proves we are likely living in a simulation, no idea seems too outlandish
An exciting time to be alive and open minded
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13099985/The-hard-hearted-letter-cleaning-boss-sent-single-mother-13-hour-fired-eating-left-tuna-sandwich-meeting-room.html
Perhaps Devonshires might be better off employing their own cleaners, to whom they can draft bulletproof NDAs when they get fired?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ian_Stevenson
Trump’s first remarks about Navalny compare Russian’s death to his own legal situation
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4476703-trumps-first-remarks-about-navalny-compare-russians-death-to-his-own-legal-situation/
Building control system on the verge of collapse....
"LABC chief executive Lorna Stimpson has written to HSE and government chiefs warning that “local authorities will cease to be able to undertake a building control function post April 6.”
This will mean ongoing construction projects will not be inspected while stop and compliance notices will not also be served....
One industry expert said: “Building control has been neglected and under-resourced for years but these changes look like they will tip the whole system into chaos.
“Experienced inspectors are retiring with no-one to take their place while the authorities have been sleep walking towards this deadline for ages without any thought as to how things will work in the real world.”
I was working from home on 7/7 and I was suddenly overcome by a feeling of dread. I went from my study to the lounge and turned on the TV and news was coming through about the Russell Square bus. I vaguely knew a woman from Ledbury who was killed in the tube at Lancaster Gate, but I had no real connection. It wasn't like I was being called to from the other side. It must have just been some bizarre coincidence.
Although no longer in the cabinet, JRM would qualify and is my suggestion. But IDS, 30p, Ben Bradley, Grant Shapps... they'll all be gone too.
No wonder Hurrah for the Blackshirts are on her side.
A male solicitor, known as AD in the judgment, approached the woman, "BR", while she was working as a dancer at a club and offered her a job as his personal legal secretary.
He invited her for dinner at the Playboy Club to discuss the opening, telling her to “Look classy. I’m taking you to a proper place”.
AD (now deceased) was a consultant at Eldwick Law. BR was studying the graduate diploma in law, part-time.
The consultant solicitor met BR again at the Playboy casino to discuss the role in more detail. BR said she had researched Eldwick Law and was "excited about the possibility" of working there.
The employment tribunal heard that AD told BR that he saw "a lot of potential" in her background in "West End hospitality", which would be an asset to "entertain and work alongside high net-worth clients."
The solicitor said BR would be expected to pick up clients at night when they visited high-end restaurants and bars. The silver-tongued lawyer described himself as "God", said AR was to be his "obedient little slave creature," and gave her instructions not to wear shiny tights.
BR said that AD had offered her a base salary of £14,000 per year, plus a bonus of 10% of what she billed and received, plus 5% of what AD billed and received.
BR accepted that she was "rather naïve", and the tribunal noted "there were several inappropriate WhatsApp messages in the bundle". However, the tribunal said that the solicitor "acted inappropriately" towards BR from the beginning.
The law student attended some typing courses, paid for by AD. But she was not given an induction at the firm, nor did AD ask for her account details. She worked from her home or his home, and AD introduced her to people as his "personal legal secretary."
AD did not pay the law student for the work she did, nor the expenses she incurred on his behalf.
Things took a dark turn when AD "went to the claimant's home and assaulted her and her four-year-old son", and was arrested by the police.
Eldwick Law terminated AD's consultancy agreement when it emerged that he was being investigated by the SRA and he refused to tell the firm what the investigation was about.
BR made a claim for unpaid work against Eldwick Law, arguing that she had been employed by the firm. However, the claim against the firm was dismissed, as the tribunal held that Eldwick Law had no knowledge of how BR came to work for AD, and no knowledge of the working arrangements. Ultimately, the law student was not employed by Eldwick Law, the tribunal ruled.
https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/club-dancer-hired-solicitors-obedient-little-slave-creature-awarded-ps28k
When I wake up I either can't remember what it was or* the idea is utter shite.
(I have no illusions that the ones I can't remember were other than utter shite too.)
Given you are inventing the dream for yourself how can you be surprised by it? Try making yourself jump by shouting 'boo!' - it just doesn't work.
In general things described as woke are not bad in themselves, but there can be unintended consequences.
For instance, you might decide that not enough women are involved in x industry. You might then start only recruiting women to make up the deficit. Is this fair? proportionate?
You might be organising an event and insist on vegan only catering, to accommodate vegans, ignoring the fact that most people are not vegan and would prefer a choice.
You might even get hung up on whether a woman can have a penis.
Chesham - Would probably put the LD as slight favourite as home counties and she has had time to work the seat.
North Shropshire - Doesn't feel like natural LD territory so would expect Con to regain. The Con MP for neighbouring Clwyd South is standing here.
Wakefield - easy Lab hold
Tiverton and Honiton - Affected by boundary changes. The LD MP is standing in Honiton and Sidmouth, which has about 2/3rds of the old seat and 1/3 East Devon. The East Devon MP is standing for Cons. Too close to call
Selby and Ainsty - Succesor seat of Selby is more Labour friendly as has a Leeds ward added to it and loses the area near Harrogate. Lab shouldbe favourites
Somerton and Frome - successor seat is Glastonbury and Somerton. LDs should hold with current strength in Somerset
Rutherglen and HW - Rutherglen is the main successor seat. Should be fairly comfortable Lab hold
Mid Bedfordshire - The Lab MP is following a small part of the current seat to the new Hitchin seat. Lab have a good chance there but this should revert to Con
Tamworth - Depends on the national picture. On current polls Lab can be confident of holding. The Walsall N is standing for Cons.
Wellingborough - boundary changes slightly help Lab. Labour should be favourites to hold.
The 3 MP on MP battles in N Shropshire, Tamworth and Honiton could be tasty
I remember being up for Portillo as a student.
To guess/predict what will happen in the future is to select from historical data (there is no other) what you think relevant, guess what factors will weigh in and how it will affect things between now and the future date (itself an unknown in the case of the next GE), allow for Black Swans and pile in.
So, for example, on the extremes of current polling + Baxtering, the Tories end up with 50 seats. Did I read that on the Wellingborough result they end up with four seats only?
OTOH, in Kingswood the swing was 16 %points. A considered and recent academic view is that Labour need a 12.7point swing to get a majority at all. On that single piece of data, given what can happen during a campaign and the weaknesses of Labour, NOM is perfectly possible.
I had an interesting variant on this - an encounter with Pan. Walking alone on Salisbury Plain, aged around 16, I suddenly felt a need to be as far away from where I was as possible. I jogged/fast walked the three miles back to my village and only really felt right when well inside the village. I didn't see anything or hear anything, just felt wrong. Such an occurence is often attributed to Pan (and hence Panic) but maybe I just spoked myself... I am born and raised on the Chalk of the Plain and normally feel totally at home, so it was an odd one to say the least.
Woke is just "political correctness gone mad" which is just "loony lefties" again. Got to remember the original "loony left" usage was to attack local councils who were advocating for, shock horror, treating queer people like human beings and, gasp, catering to ethnic minorities in their communities. It's always been the same thing - if you argue for equitable treatment of people typically considered the out groups, people who benefit from the inequitable treatment complain and try and make you out as a weirdo.
As a good young Daily Mail-reading Tory, I thought Portillo was the obvious future of the party, so it was quite a shock to see him ejected!
I had an architect doing drawings for an extension to our house. She notified me she would be away on holiday shortly. I said no problem I would be also. On our drive down through France we stayed over at a hotel and as we sat in the restaurant, there she was at another table. I got up and approached her from behind and said 'Now about these plans I just wanted to talk to you about ....'. She took a few minutes to recover and realise she wasn't being stalked.
How can dreams create surprising narrative twists? Yet they do
I can sometimes reach lucid dreaming states (not uncommon) where I am vaguely aware I am dreaming, and at best - much rarer - I can order the dream to go in a nice way. Flying or sex usually
However even in those dreams suddenly the dream will lurch in an entirely different direction which I didn’t intend and did not desire or will
So what part of my brain is doing that? The Freudian distinction between conscious and subconscious seems useful for this reason alone
I agree woke is tenuous, and in reality 'don't be a dick' and 'be nice to people' covers most things. However there is a substance there somewhere. Moving from Christmas to Winterval to be more inclusive (who voted for that?). I think sometimes the issue is culture warriors fighting battles on behalf of others, typically others who don't care. Such as all the non-Christians our there who happily celebrate Christmas, including atheists, muslims, budhhists etc. There is also a tendency to want keep ratcheting a dial.
But hey, its not the biggest issue in the world right now.
I was also up for Palmer, and I don’t mean him losing his Nottingham seat.
Do I win a prize?
There’s an old saying about writers who go to China
After a month in China you confidently want to write a book
After a year in China you scale this back to a good long essay
After a decade in China you think maybe you could squeeze out an article
After a lifetime, maybe a sentence
The polls are within a relatively consistent set of figures that show the Tories either losing and Labour having a reasonable majority all the way to an extinction level event for the Conservatives where they could have fewer seats than the LDs or SNP. It is possible that the next Tory leader may not even be LOTO. And yet instead the environment here seems to be one of an inevitable reversion to some foundational political mean that just doesn't seem to exist.
The most interesting people tend to be the total pragmatists and materialists who, nonetheless, have had totally inexplicable experiences
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/nov/08/winterval-modern-myth-christmas
TLDR: It was a bollocks made up by the press controversy
It sounds like something definitely happened
I mean, how much of the "Winterval" stuff actually exists out there, though? Like, when I send emails out to students I will typically say "winter break", but that's because that's what it is. I think most people try to "not be a dick" or "be nice to people" and then people with an axe to grind wind themselves up about it for no reason. It doesn't hurt you if I don't celebrate Christmas and don't wish anyone a "Merry Christmas" so why get vexed if I say "Happy Holidays" or, indeed, nothing at all?
- Night my gran died, I woke up in the middle of the night with a strange feeling of being startled - I was on scout camp. Next day, my dad came to get us and said he had bad news, I knew before he said what it was that my gran had died, even though I wasn't expecting her death.
- I distinctly remember asking my mum, before school when I was in infants, whether I'd had another brother. I don't remember her reply, think she changed the subject, but I learned many years later that I did have another brother, older than my older brother, who was stillborn
Now, 1 is easily explained by coincidences. I probably was startled by a noise, either another sleeper in the tent or some animal outside. When my dad said he had bad news, there were limited options. He wasn't completely in pieces, so it was unlikely to me my mum. I had only two surviving grandparents and my gran was the eldest and most frail and his mother, so it was probably clear enough from his delivery. 2 did give me a real start when I learned about the stillbirth, years later. But, talking to my older brother, he remembers my parents talking about it a bit when he was quite small. I have no such memories, but likelihood is that I did pick something up from that.If I was a believer in the paranormal then I'd see those as two good examples. As a scientist I seek the other explanations and probably have a bias towards explaining away. But that's where I'm at with both of those.
I also sometimes feel like I have prophetic dreams, but I only make the connection after the actual event happens - so I suspect my brain re-draws the dots of the dream after the event, making connections that were never there. I've never dreamt something clearly enough to produce a testable hypothesis that I could write down and check back on later.
As to woke generally, there is a lot which is simply this generation's treating people with respect, but there is an element, perhaps a product of the way in which people get riled up online, of being uncompromising, impatient, and, ironically, rude about it.
It's as though people forget that it might well be a new idea for other people, that it often takes people a while to get used to new ideas, and a bit of open-hearted patience and the benefit of the doubt can go a long way.
Taking this back to the food example, if a 3:1 meat: no-meat order didn't work, why not try 1:1, or 1:3, before leaping straight away to no meat at all?
So you have more paperwork than ever before, vast sums expended and more and more defective buildings slipping through.
The friend who is on the management committee of his new built block tells me that they have decided that his block can have new cladding - after the remedial structural work has been done. Since they discovered the building is structurally deficient, while investigating the cladding.
The next door block was evacuated and remains empty. Because they aren’t sure *how* structurally deficient it is. Concrete is fucked apparently. On top of getting the calculations for load wrong.
Both buildings were signed off and inhabited for a number of years before this was noticed.
As usual there is constant apologetics going on from tories in this group trying to suggest that the numbers are not the numbers. Bet the data, don't bet your hopes, because it will be a world of pain.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2011/nov/08/winterval-modern-myth-christmas
A classic (and early) piece of the right weaponising ignorance and stupidity by telling outright lies.
We now have a de facto blasphemy law. Not only that, it is a brutal blasphemy law. Offend Islam and you die
There is a teacher from batley who will be in hiding the rest of his life because he dared to show pupils something that “offended” their Islamic religion. No teacher will now ever dare to do this again
That’s a blasphemy law the likes of which we haven’t seen since the 17th century. That is Wokeness, that is what it means, it means the end of the Enlightenment, and useful idiots like you who try to claim it is all a fuss about nothing can go jump in the sea. You stupid stupid cretin
I'm not religious in the slightest, but saying "Merry Xmas!", "Happy Diwali!", "Eid Mubarak!" as appropriate isn't any trouble. It feels no different to asking "how are the kids?" or similar, which I'll happily ask of other people despite not having children myself.
As for the email thing, I'd phrase it as something like "if you're taking time off over Christmas or the New Year..." - some people only take the stat days, some people will be working on one other the other. Talking about a "winter break" that isn't marked in everybody's calendar would only cause confusion.