Overseas elections from more than 30 years ago are rarely hot topics of conversation in modern UK politics. But whisper “Canada 1993” into a Conservative MP’s ear and don’t be surprised if they break into a sudden cold sweat.
This is the model for the “extinction-level event” experienced by a previously dominant rightwing party – one that some Tory opponents of Rishi Sunak warn he risks emulating at the next general election.
The basic and, for Tory MPs, chilling facts are that in October 1993 the Progressive Conservative party, in power in Canada since 1984, slumped from 167 federal seats to just two, eventually leading to its dissolution and merger into the new Conservative party of Canada.
There are some curiously precise parallels: a complacent conservative incumbent that had recently ditched its leader (Kim Campbell replacing Brian Mulroney) was struggling with the economy and faced a new, insurgent rightwing party – called Reform.
Yes, I’d be pretty confident that Farage and Tice both know the history and have this in mind when they talk about destroying (aka taking over) the Conservative Party. As the party of government with hundreds of MPs and thousands of councillors, peers, donors, and a network of patronage and support acrosss political society, there is no way that a bunch of renegades could march in and take it over; electorally utterly destroyed, however, and it becomes a new ball game.
Important difference is that RefCan had a decent number of MPs as a result of that election. They were regionally focused so FPTP worked for them.
RefUK, less so. If they can only get 13% in Wellingborough, it's not easy to see them getting more than a handful of MPs, most likely none at all. What they can do is massively cut the number of Conservative MPs.
But destruction has always come more easily to Farage than creation.
So the conservatives are worrying about Canada 1993 (not going to happen) and Labour are shitting themselves about Australia 2019 (also not going to happen). It’s going to be UK 2024.
Cons will survive and bounce back. Hopefully as Labour gets tired and loses steam by around its third term, there will be an influx of new younger members to the conservatives bringing with them more modern ideas.
Im sort of struggling to see what Labour's "modern" ideas are. Labour will simply be continuity Sunak. But without the ethnic leader. Or the femlae one.
The point seems to be give the Tory party nothing to grip on to and attack come the election.
Edit - and with the Tory party being so disliked I actually think we are component and not Sunak and co is probably more than enough for Labour to get elected.
Certainly. However I think the all things to all men approach will not serve them well in government.
Overseas elections from more than 30 years ago are rarely hot topics of conversation in modern UK politics. But whisper “Canada 1993” into a Conservative MP’s ear and don’t be surprised if they break into a sudden cold sweat.
This is the model for the “extinction-level event” experienced by a previously dominant rightwing party – one that some Tory opponents of Rishi Sunak warn he risks emulating at the next general election.
The basic and, for Tory MPs, chilling facts are that in October 1993 the Progressive Conservative party, in power in Canada since 1984, slumped from 167 federal seats to just two, eventually leading to its dissolution and merger into the new Conservative party of Canada.
There are some curiously precise parallels: a complacent conservative incumbent that had recently ditched its leader (Kim Campbell replacing Brian Mulroney) was struggling with the economy and faced a new, insurgent rightwing party – called Reform.
Yes, I’d be pretty confident that Farage and Tice both know the history and have this in mind when they talk about destroying (aka taking over) the Conservative Party. As the party of government with hundreds of MPs and thousands of councillors, peers, donors, and a network of patronage and support acrosss political society, there is no way that a bunch of renegades could march in and take it over; electorally utterly destroyed, however, and it becomes a new ball game.
Important difference is that RefCan had a decent number of MPs as a result of that election. They were regionally focused so FPTP worked for them.
RefUK, less so. If they can only get 13% in Wellingborough, it's not easy to see them getting more than a handful of MPs, most likely none at all. What they can do is massively cut the number of Conservative MPs.
But destruction has always come more easily to Farage than creation.
So the conservatives are worrying about Canada 1993 (not going to happen) and Labour are shitting themselves about Australia 2019 (also not going to happen). It’s going to be UK 2024.
Cons will survive and bounce back. Hopefully as Labour gets tired and loses steam by around its third term, there will be an influx of new younger members to the conservatives bringing with them more modern ideas.
Im sort of struggling to see what Labour's "modern" ideas are. Labour will simply be continuity Sunak. But without the ethnic leader. Or the femlae one.
Without the incompetence would be an improvement. And without the grinning would be a relief.
The evidence of people having dreams that foretold Aberfan is quite compelling. Mad, but compelling
They were strangely vivid dreams about close friends or lovers, so people that I knew well. They felt different to more run of the mill dreams. Each became true within days to weeks.
The incidents were quite personal, but also prosaic. Meeting people that I hadn't seen for months for example. Not quite the same as deja but, but a related phenomenon I suppose.
Never had a prophetic dream. I don't believe in that old caper.
I was working from home on 7/7 and I was suddenly overcome by a feeling of dread. I went from my study to the lounge and turned on the TV and news was coming through about the Russell Square bus. I vaguely knew a woman from Ledbury who was killed in the tube at Lancaster Gate, but I had no real connection. It wasn't like I was being called to from the other side. It must have just been some bizarre coincidence.
That is the thing about coincidences, you remember them. You never remember all the many more things that didn't happen.
I had an architect doing drawings for an extension to our house. She notified me she would be away on holiday shortly. I said no problem I would be also. On our drive down through France we stayed over at a hotel and as we sat in the restaurant, there she was at another table. I got up and approached her from behind and said 'Now about these plans I just wanted to talk to you about ....'. She took a few minutes to recover and realise she wasn't being stalked.
Yep. There are two events from my childhood that could be seen as a bit freaky:
Night my gran died, I woke up in the middle of the night with a strange feeling of being startled - I was on scout camp. Next day, my dad came to get us and said he had bad news, I knew before he said what it was that my gran had died, even though I wasn't expecting her death.
I distinctly remember asking my mum, before school when I was in infants, whether I'd had another brother. I don't remember her reply, think she changed the subject, but I learned many years later that I did have another brother, older than my older brother, who was stillborn
Now, 1 is easily explained by coincidences. I probably was startled by a noise, either another sleeper in the tent or some animal outside. When my dad said he had bad news, there were limited options. He wasn't completely in pieces, so it was unlikely to me my mum. I had only two surviving grandparents and my gran was the eldest and most frail and his mother, so it was probably clear enough from his delivery. 2 did give me a real start when I learned about the stillbirth, years later. But, talking to my older brother, he remembers my parents talking about it a bit when he was quite small. I have no such memories, but likelihood is that I did pick something up from that.
If I was a believer in the paranormal then I'd see those as two good examples. As a scientist I seek the other explanations and probably have a bias towards explaining away. But that's where I'm at with both of those.
I also sometimes feel like I have prophetic dreams, but I only make the connection after the actual event happens - so I suspect my brain re-draws the dots of the dream after the event, making connections that were never there. I've never dreamt something clearly enough to produce a testable hypothesis that I could write down and check back on later.
When I was younger I had some prophetic dreams. It was very like deja vu but the dream experience was distinct in what we laughingly call time and some considerable period before the event. In one case I had a dream of a situation in Germany when I was in boarding school in Scotland which came true in the subsequent holidays.
The dreams were never particularly useful, I did not dream I was watching the lottery numbers, the football pools, or even the Grand National, but it was disturbing when they came true and I knew exactly what people were going to say before they did and then they did.
As I have got older these have been far less common. I have not had such a dream for more than a decade now. My vague suspicion is that this sort of ability needs to be exercised or you lose it. How you do that I am not sure.
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The dreams were never particularly useful, I did not dream I was watching the lottery numbers, the football pools, or even the Grand National, but it was disturbing when they came true and I knew exactly what people were going to say before they did and then they did.
As I have got older these have been far less common. I have not had such a dream for more than a decade now. My vague suspicion is that this sort of ability needs to be exercised or you lose it. How you do that I am not sure.