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Life after Sunak – Tory Leadership Contenders – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    The curse of Leondamus strikes again.

    Edit - What a bollocks decision by the TMO.

    Respect due to @Leon damus

    Should have been a try.

    Cracking match.
    Was it a cracking match?

    Second half was dreadful, but a brilliant ending. Scots were robbed
    It was close, tense and dramatic. It was compelling. It was great drama.

    I’ve enjoyed watching it far more than games that are technically better but not as close.
    First half was great, second half was fairly poor, ending was great drama

    That was definitely a try at the end
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,107
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Scotland are doing a good job of introducing new songs and singing to their rugby crowds. The Proclaimers. Bonny Bonny banks etc

    England should copy. Suggestions for songs?

    Beatles? Hey Jude?

    Wonderwall
    This Town Ain't Big Enough For The Both Of Us.

    (Like many Sparks songs has very droll lyrics if you can make them out.)
    Wouid anyone know it?

    They need a really thumping singalong chorus

    Pretty Vacant might work?
    The Kinks are very English. But not Lola (unsuitable divisive subject matter) or Waterloo Sunset (too Londoncentric).

    So Sunny Afternoon, say.

    Easy to imagine that rolling around Twickers after a stirring win.
    Nice. The Kinks are an inspired choice - so English - and yes I'd go for Waterloo Sunset or Lola (consider them unifying)
    Mister Woke War can’t do Lola though, I bet 😄
    That was my point. Not so much about Leon specifically but about the rugger crowd. They won't embrace Lola as their anthem because it features a woman with a penis and that flies in the face of commonsense.
    You have been deprived of contact with English rugby players and fans where every one of them has an absolutely hilarious tale about that time they got arseholed in Putney in that private room above the pub singing “father Abraham” naked with their pants on their heads then, as it was one of his stag do’s, Barney was tied to a chair and a stripper walked in and it turned out it was a chick with a dick. It was totally hilaire because Barney was so banjaxxed he didn’t realise until he had the strippers cock resting on top of his head.

    So I think plenty of people at Twickenham are used to the concept of a woman with a penis.
    Really? That doesn't sound very appetising. But anyway that's not the spirit of Lola, is it. The song isn't narrated by one of your Barney types. It has a woke feel to it. This rules it out as a Twickers anthem.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,367

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    At best the person isn't in Parliament yet - at worst Rishi will be the last Tory to do so...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    The curse of Leondamus strikes again.

    Edit - What a bollocks decision by the TMO.

    Respect due to @Leon damus

    Should have been a try.

    Cracking match.
    Was it a cracking match?

    Second half was dreadful, but a brilliant ending. Scots were robbed
    It was close, tense and dramatic. It was compelling. It was great drama.

    I’ve enjoyed watching it far more than games that are technically better but not as close.
    First half was great, second half was fairly poor, ending was great drama

    That was definitely a try at the end
    Technically poor but still really engaging. I do agree it was a try at the end. I feel for the Scots.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    edited February 10

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly if the relatively centrist Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election, the odds are that they will take the blame and the party will shift back in a more rightwing direction.

    If party members alone had the final say Badenoch would be odds on the be next Conservative leader and Leader of the Opposition. However when she stood last summer neither she, nor Braverman nor even Mordaunt go enough support from Tory MPs to make the final 2 to get to the membership.

    Other Cabinet members like Cleverly or Barclay therefore would come into contention as they are more likely to get support amongst Conservative MPs. However Cleverly may have damaged his chances with his poor taste 'date rape' joke so Barclay, a Leaver but not ERG, a former Health Secretary and current Environment Secretary might be a good outside bet to be the Hague or Ed Miliband figure to take over in Opposition. Barclay also backed Sunak for leader last year and I would expect much of Sunak's parliamentary backing to shift to him. Tugendhat would also likely stand again and probably pick up support from the One Nation wing of Tory MPs. Jenrick I don't think has much support in the House or amongst members

    Regarding Barclay, I'm not sure that "Continuity Abject Failure" is a recipe for success.
    How the likely next Labour government performs on the economy is likely to be the main determinant of whether it is re elected or not. As long as the Conservatives don't pick a complete ideological extremist, which Barclay isn't, they would therefore have a shot if inflation and interest rates are high, taxes go up and strikes resume under a Starmer government
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    At best the person isn't in Parliament yet - at worst Rishi will be the last Tory to do so...
    If Rishi was the last Tory PM, the next rightwing PM would likely look a lot more like Farage than him
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    Leon said:

    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    The obvious name missing from this list - and of course I understand why - is Nigel Farage

    I refer you to @MarqueeMark 's comments on this.
    I don't recall what he has opined. What's the gist?

    Farage is a much smarter, cannier politician than anyone on this list. He could electrify the Tories if he took over

    Of course he would drive away many, but he would also attract many; and if the Tories take such a terrible Cholon Ducking in the GE they go under 100 seats, might they not care?

    In such a circumstance he would need to.
    1 Join (and be accepted into) the Tory Party.
    2 Get someone to step aside from what would be an effective sinecure to force a by election.
    3 Win that by-election.
    4 All before nominations for a leadership election have closed.
    Also

    5. Farage has to want this - and there isn't much evidence of that

    I want it to happen for the Lolz, but I accept there are almost insurmountable obstacles
    The most obvious reason is that it would mean a lot more scrutiny of Farage's finances and dealings with unsavoury characters. He could try and 'Trump it out' I suppose. But a bit of a risk to likely become a failed opposition leader.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Taz said:

    The curse of Leondamus strikes again.

    Edit - What a bollocks decision by the TMO.

    Respect due to @Leon damus

    Should have been a try.

    Cracking match.
    Was it a cracking match?

    Second half was dreadful, but a brilliant ending. Scots were robbed
    It was close, tense and dramatic. It was compelling. It was great drama.

    I’ve enjoyed watching it far more than games that are technically better but not as close.
    First half was great, second half was fairly poor, ending was great drama

    That was definitely a try at the end
    Technically poor but still really engaging. I do agree it was a try at the end. I feel for the Scots.
    You can clearly see the ball on the ground, it was grounded, it was a try

    The idea you need 100% absolute certainty is nonsense, there are loads of tries when you aren't 100% certain, it is just "highly likely" that it is a try, and that is enough

    Scotland can be justifiably angry, but they should also be angry at themselves: chucked it away
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    edited February 10

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    My preference is keep Rishi until the election and if he loses then go for Barclay or Tugendhat, although I think the latter isn't Brexity or rightwing enough for the membership
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    Taz said:

    Presumably the Nick Berry from the Rugby isn’t the one from Heartbeat

    No, he now lives in Epping
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    edited February 10
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    My preference is keep Rishi until the election and if he loses then go for Barclay or Tugendhat, although I think the latter isn't Brexity or rightwing enough for the membership
    Barclay or Tugendhat is the Tories admitting they are out of power for a decade. Anonymous mediocrities, dull and directionless

    I accept you aren't blessed with talent, but you can surely do better than either of them
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    My preference is keep Rishi until the election and if he loses then go for Barclay or Tugendhat, although I think the latter isn't Brexity or rightwing enough for the membership
    Barclay or Tugendhat is the Tories admitting they are out of power for a decade. Anonymous mediocrities, dull and directionless

    I accept you aren't blessed with talent, but you can surely do better than either of them
    It has to be Cleverly, Badenoch or Braverman.
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly if the relatively centrist Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election, the odds are that they will take the blame and the party will shift back in a more rightwing direction.

    If party members alone had the final say Badenoch would be odds on the be next Conservative leader and Leader of the Opposition. However when she stood last summer neither she, nor Braverman nor even Mordaunt go enough support from Tory MPs to make the final 2 to get to the membership.

    Other Cabinet members like Cleverly or Barclay therefore would come into contention as they are more likely to get support amongst Conservative MPs. However Cleverly may have damaged his chances with his poor taste 'date rape' joke so Barclay, a Leaver but not ERG, a former Health Secretary and current Environment Secretary might be a good outside bet to be the Hague or Ed Miliband figure to take over in Opposition. Barclay also backed Sunak for leader last year and I would expect much of Sunak's parliamentary backing to shift to him. Tugendhat would also likely stand again and probably pick up support from the One Nation wing of Tory MPs. Jenrick I don't think has much support in the House or amongst members

    Regarding Barclay, I'm not sure that "Continuity Abject Failure" is a recipe for success.
    How the likely next Labour government performs on the economy is likely to be the main determinant of whether it is re elected or not. As long as the Conservatives don't pick a complete ideological extremist, which Barclay isn't, they would therefore have a shot if inflation and interest rates are high, taxes go up and strikes resume under a Starmer government
    Likely to be tougher than that I think. Provided Labour don't have their own self-inflicted disaster then they will very much be able to adopt the Cameron/Osborne strategy of blaming any pain on the previous regime and saying "stick with us, we'll fix it - don't let the vandals back in".

    A large chunk of the electorate - look at their polling numbers with people of working age - has become so repulsed by the Tories that it'll take a pretty big mea culpa and apology for the past decade to get them to look at them again. Even if Labour disappoints.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    My preference is keep Rishi until the election and if he loses then go for Barclay or Tugendhat, although I think the latter isn't Brexity or rightwing enough for the membership
    I could live with either HY.

    I suspect your party will opt for some rabid maniac. Braverman and Jenrick would be my most feared Prime Ministers. Braverman is as mad as the March Hare and Jenrick is dangerously ambitious.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    edited February 10
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    My preference is keep Rishi until the election and if he loses then go for Barclay or Tugendhat, although I think the latter isn't Brexity or rightwing enough for the membership
    Barclay or Tugendhat is the Tories admitting they are out of power for a decade. Anonymous mediocrities, dull and directionless

    I accept you aren't blessed with talent, but you can surely do better than either of them
    It has to be Cleverly, Badenoch or Braverman.
    Braverman would be my choice

    The Tories HAVE to try being ACTUALLY rightwing. They haven't done this for decades, unless you count the miserablism of the Cam-Oz Austerity Years

    Braverman has the guts and intellect to do that, she probably won't get far with it (the defeat will be so bad) but at least she might give the Tories a sense of political coherence: remembering what they are FOR

    Badenoch is insubstantial, Cleverly is a centrist manager businessman


  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    The Guardian. That seals it. Must be correct.
  • HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    At best the person isn't in Parliament yet - at worst Rishi will be the last Tory to do so...
    If Rishi was the last Tory PM, the next rightwing PM would likely look a lot more like Farage than him
    I wonder who the Faragist after Farage is?

    Some have tried (Billie Piper's ex, for example), but none of them have the skill of sugarcoating the poison just enough. A bit like Trumpism, the ideology only works with the man.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    My preference is keep Rishi until the election and if he loses then go for Barclay or Tugendhat, although I think the latter isn't Brexity or rightwing enough for the membership
    I could live with either HY.

    I suspect your party will opt for some rabid maniac. Braverman and Jenrick would be my most feared Prime Ministers. Braverman is as mad as the March Hare and Jenrick is dangerously ambitious.
    Surely you DON'T fear the mad ones, as they will go nowhere?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    HYUFD said:

    Taz said:

    Presumably the Nick Berry from the Rugby isn’t the one from Heartbeat

    No, he now lives in Epping
    He seems to have totally withdrawn from public life at the peak of his fame.
  • I'm never taking out a contract with Vodafone.

    Also having the name on the back of the shirt in rugby is just wrong.
  • I wouldn't argue with much of that header. I think there is little point backing anyone from outside of the barking mad wing of the party. The post-GE Con Pty will likely be more weighted in their favour. They certainly will not put two moderates to the members. The electoral process will not then damage the selected right-winger. If Liz Truss could survive the process and win the vote then most anyone could. The problem then comes when the anointed one meets real life (again see Truss Liz).

    Just as after 1979, 1997 and 2010 I suspect the ousted party will finally come to its senses and find someone electable. However, it will not happen after this next GE and quite likely not after the one after that.

    In the meantime Tice and co are circling. Offering the real red meat to the target voters in a way that neither Suella nor Badenoch can. The longer the Cons dilly-dally and shilly-shally the more dangerous a force from the Right could be to them
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,294
    Fantastic article, really well argued.
  • They don't call Tommy Tuberville America's dumbest Senator for nothing



    https://twitter.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1756170976541188296
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,628
    edited February 10
    The officials are having a shocker today, no way that's a yellow.

    Massive mitigation.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258

    The officials are having a shocker today, no way that's a yellow.

    Harsh

    But England should really have points on the board by now. Totally dominant
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    Was the ref born in Cardiff of a coal miner and a love spoon?
  • The officials might as well be Welsh.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    Utterly ridiculous reffing
  • Watch this incompetent ref rule out this try because England play in white.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,365

    The officials might as well be Welsh.

    Don't worry, we'll find some way of losing.
  • See, this ref is a wanker.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    Oh dear Me George !!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    My preference would be for the right of the party to coalesce around Jake Berry, get him through to the members run off, and the rest is history. Not just because my £3 bet on him would turn into £500.

    However, far from showing recent signs of being up for the fight, he seems to have gained a second belly and only hit the news recently for being handbagged about the post office scandal by Ian Hislop on TV. He needs to get on the Robert Jenrick diet and get himself out there.

    Nadine Dorries says that the powers that be will get Sunk out before the GE. I don't see this as entirely implausible. That means no Boris.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,628
    edited February 10

    My preference would be for the right of the party to coalesce around Jake Berry, get him through to the members run off, and the rest is history. Not just because my £3 bet on him would turn into £500.

    However, far from showing recent signs of being up for the fight, he seems to have gained a second belly and only hit the news recently for being handbagged about the post office scandal by Ian Hislop on TV. He needs to get on the Robert Jenrick diet and get himself out there.

    Nadine Dorries says that the powers that be will get Sunk out before the GE. I don't see this as entirely implausible. That means no Boris.

    Nadine Dorries talks more shit than Marjorie Taylor Greene.

    A few weeks ago she was saying the plan was for Cameron to replace Sunak after the election.

    Believing Nadine Dorries is a rookie error.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412

    My preference would be for the right of the party to coalesce around Jake Berry, get him through to the members run off, and the rest is history. Not just because my £3 bet on him would turn into £500.

    However, far from showing recent signs of being up for the fight, he seems to have gained a second belly and only hit the news recently for being handbagged about the post office scandal by Ian Hislop on TV. He needs to get on the Robert Jenrick diet and get himself out there.

    Nadine Dorries says that the powers that be will get Sunk out before the GE. I don't see this as entirely implausible. That means no Boris.

    Nadine Dorries talks more shit than Marjorie Taylor Greene.

    A few weeks ago she was saying the plan was for Cameron to replace Sunak after the election.

    Believing Nadine Dorries is a rookie error.
    Yes, I do see that. But her theory that influential Tories are shitting themselves because Sunak is rubbish, and would therefore prefer to roll the dice with Kemi, is not without basic logic.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068
    A @Quincel article! You should have told me: I'd've stayed in the library. Nice to see you again, Pip: keep publishing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    ...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    The Tory leadership contest is a really fascinating one. The only possible value in the list of runners is Mordaunt. (I think she is the only one of the 5 listed with any serious chance at all). Assuming a landslide defeat (which is highly possible, though far from certain) the picture changes. A possible change is in the few MPs remaining deciding to act, for a change, for the sane long term. This could mean that candidates like Hunt and Tugendhat are underpriced. This may even be the case for Barclay, though it is outside my powers to work out why.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,365
    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    When they get the thieves, will they be charged?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    When they get the thieves, will they be charged?
    Probably for assault and battery.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,365
    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    When they get the thieves, will they be charged?
    Probably for assault and battery.
    That will be negatively received.
  • I think I’ll switch over to Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    This is fricking shite from England. Clueless, no spark, defence all over the shop
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    edited February 10
    Borthwick has so much talent in the squad, and he has no idea what to do with it

    And no doubt he is on a 25 year contract
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,107
    viewcode said:

    A @Quincel article! You should have told me: I'd've stayed in the library. Nice to see you again, Pip: keep publishing.

    Yes, read it now having previously just dived in with nonsense comments about rugby anthems. Very good piece and agreed that Badenoch is more of a sell than a buy.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,068

    My preference would be for the right of the party to coalesce around Jake Berry, get him through to the members run off, and the rest is history. Not just because my £3 bet on him would turn into £500.

    However, far from showing recent signs of being up for the fight, he seems to have gained a second belly and only hit the news recently for being handbagged about the post office scandal by Ian Hislop on TV. He needs to get on the Robert Jenrick diet and get himself out there.

    Nadine Dorries says that the powers that be will get Sunk out before the GE. I don't see this as entirely implausible. That means no Boris.

    Nadine Dorries talks more shit than Marjorie Taylor Greene.

    A few weeks ago she was saying the plan was for Cameron to replace Sunak after the election.

    Believing Nadine Dorries is a rookie error.
    Sunak was keen on chess too

    Another rookie error.

    😃😃😃😃😃
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Leon said:

    This is fricking shite from England. Clueless, no spark, defence all over the shop

    They were all over wales until the interesting yellow cards which sucked the momentum out of them.

    Hopefully wales get to show what they can do with 13 men and a questionable penalty try against them in the second half.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    edited February 10
    algarkirk said:

    The Tory leadership contest is a really fascinating one. The only possible value in the list of runners is Mordaunt. (I think she is the only one of the 5 listed with any serious chance at all). Assuming a landslide defeat (which is highly possible, though far from certain) the picture changes. A possible change is in the few MPs remaining deciding to act, for a change, for the sane long term. This could mean that candidates like Hunt and Tugendhat are underpriced. This may even be the case for Barclay, though it is outside my powers to work out why.

    Hunt will almost certainly have lost his marginal Surrey seat to the LDs, so won't be a contender but yes otherwise agree
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    My preference is keep Rishi until the election and if he loses then go for Barclay or Tugendhat, although I think the latter isn't Brexity or rightwing enough for the membership
    I could live with either HY.

    I suspect your party will opt for some rabid maniac. Braverman and Jenrick would be my most feared Prime Ministers. Braverman is as mad as the March Hare and Jenrick is dangerously ambitious.
    I don't see any of those getting enough support from Tory MPs to get to the membership however
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    This is fricking shite from England. Clueless, no spark, defence all over the shop

    They were all over wales until the interesting yellow cards which sucked the momentum out of them.

    Hopefully wales get to show what they can do with 13 men and a questionable penalty try against them in the second half.
    But they didn't score a point

    Borthwick only scraped a win against Italy

    He is shit, England are shit, this is dire, and this is at home! My God

    I cannot remember the last time I watched an England match with eager anticipation, thinking, wow we've got some talent, we can run it, we can beat anyone. Well over a decade? Two decades?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    MJW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly if the relatively centrist Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election, the odds are that they will take the blame and the party will shift back in a more rightwing direction.

    If party members alone had the final say Badenoch would be odds on the be next Conservative leader and Leader of the Opposition. However when she stood last summer neither she, nor Braverman nor even Mordaunt go enough support from Tory MPs to make the final 2 to get to the membership.

    Other Cabinet members like Cleverly or Barclay therefore would come into contention as they are more likely to get support amongst Conservative MPs. However Cleverly may have damaged his chances with his poor taste 'date rape' joke so Barclay, a Leaver but not ERG, a former Health Secretary and current Environment Secretary might be a good outside bet to be the Hague or Ed Miliband figure to take over in Opposition. Barclay also backed Sunak for leader last year and I would expect much of Sunak's parliamentary backing to shift to him. Tugendhat would also likely stand again and probably pick up support from the One Nation wing of Tory MPs. Jenrick I don't think has much support in the House or amongst members

    Regarding Barclay, I'm not sure that "Continuity Abject Failure" is a recipe for success.
    How the likely next Labour government performs on the economy is likely to be the main determinant of whether it is re elected or not. As long as the Conservatives don't pick a complete ideological extremist, which Barclay isn't, they would therefore have a shot if inflation and interest rates are high, taxes go up and strikes resume under a Starmer government
    Likely to be tougher than that I think. Provided Labour don't have their own self-inflicted disaster then they will very much be able to adopt the Cameron/Osborne strategy of blaming any pain on the previous regime and saying "stick with us, we'll fix it - don't let the vandals back in".

    A large chunk of the electorate - look at their polling numbers with people of working age - has become so repulsed by the Tories that it'll take a pretty big mea culpa and apology for the past decade to get them to look at them again. Even if Labour disappoints.
    Depends, all over the western world newly elected governments have swiftly seen their poll numbers decline from Germany to Australia and the US due to inflation and interest rates and cost of living particularly. Remember too the Conservatives can win most seats even if they lose most voters under 45
  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728

    My preference would be for the right of the party to coalesce around Jake Berry, get him through to the members run off, and the rest is history. Not just because my £3 bet on him would turn into £500.

    However, far from showing recent signs of being up for the fight, he seems to have gained a second belly and only hit the news recently for being handbagged about the post office scandal by Ian Hislop on TV. He needs to get on the Robert Jenrick diet and get himself out there.

    Nadine Dorries says that the powers that be will get Sunk out before the GE. I don't see this as entirely implausible. That means no Boris.

    Nadine Dorries talks more shit than Marjorie Taylor Greene.

    A few weeks ago she was saying the plan was for Cameron to replace Sunak after the election.

    Believing Nadine Dorries is a rookie error.
    Yes, I do see that. But her theory that influential Tories are shitting themselves because Sunak is rubbish, and would therefore prefer to roll the dice with Kemi, is not without basic logic.
    Where it falls down though is asking why any Tory with serious long-term leadership ambitions - as opposed to someone at the end of a career and happy to take one for the team and have been PM - would want the job.

    You're liable to be on the end of shellacking you'll partly get the blame for, and despised by those who wanted to keep Sunak and blamed those being disloyal. Meaning you probably won't last all that long as LoTO.

    You get to be PM, but as a 'quiz question PM' remembered as a footnote. The only other reason would be to get through a passion project - but there's not time for that.

    Why would Braverman or Badenoch - who both hold absurdly safe seats - allow themselves to front a leadership coup that likely results in electoral humiliation and the burning up of their big shot? You'd wait, let Sunak fail then ride the recriminations unless you really did think an historic wipeout was likely.

    The only way I could see Sunak ousted is to install a caretaker to stem the losses. But that's very unlikely as the remaining party greybeards have the most loyalty to Sunak. The Tory Party is also so ungovernable that it would be almost impossible to stitch it up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    edited February 10
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    My preference is keep Rishi until the election and if he loses then go for Barclay or Tugendhat, although I think the latter isn't Brexity or rightwing enough for the membership
    Barclay or Tugendhat is the Tories admitting they are out of power for a decade. Anonymous mediocrities, dull and directionless

    I accept you aren't blessed with talent, but you can surely do better than either of them
    No they are less likely to turn off floating voters than Braverman, Patel or Badenoch. Even Mogg would have more appeal than them
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    algarkirk said:

    The Tory leadership contest is a really fascinating one. The only possible value in the list of runners is Mordaunt. (I think she is the only one of the 5 listed with any serious chance at all). Assuming a landslide defeat (which is highly possible, though far from certain) the picture changes. A possible change is in the few MPs remaining deciding to act, for a change, for the sane long term. This could mean that candidates like Hunt and Tugendhat are underpriced. This may even be the case for Barclay, though it is outside my powers to work out why.

    I definitely think one key reason to lay Badenoch is precisely that the Tory position post-election could be along quite a range. But in the event of a huge defeat I doubt Hunt is still an MP.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    ydoethur said:

    boulay said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ...

    When they get the thieves, will they be charged?
    Probably for assault and battery.
    That will be negatively received.
    Perhaps terminally.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,184
    Looking at the law just flashed up on the BBC, Ford certainly didn't start his "approach". What rules are the refs using ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    I just want one really good England rugby team before I die, thankyou, thankyou Jesus
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399

    My preference would be for the right of the party to coalesce around Jake Berry, get him through to the members run off, and the rest is history. Not just because my £3 bet on him would turn into £500.

    However, far from showing recent signs of being up for the fight, he seems to have gained a second belly and only hit the news recently for being handbagged about the post office scandal by Ian Hislop on TV. He needs to get on the Robert Jenrick diet and get himself out there.

    Nadine Dorries says that the powers that be will get Sunk out before the GE. I don't see this as entirely implausible. That means no Boris.

    Jake Berry won't be keeping his seat without an 11% swing from current polling.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Haha Jonny Wilkinson giving Biggar the side eye as Biggar spouts absolute drivel about why the George Ford kick being wrongly ruled was ok because morals or some bullshit.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    HYUFD said:

    MJW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly if the relatively centrist Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election, the odds are that they will take the blame and the party will shift back in a more rightwing direction.

    If party members alone had the final say Badenoch would be odds on the be next Conservative leader and Leader of the Opposition. However when she stood last summer neither she, nor Braverman nor even Mordaunt go enough support from Tory MPs to make the final 2 to get to the membership.

    Other Cabinet members like Cleverly or Barclay therefore would come into contention as they are more likely to get support amongst Conservative MPs. However Cleverly may have damaged his chances with his poor taste 'date rape' joke so Barclay, a Leaver but not ERG, a former Health Secretary and current Environment Secretary might be a good outside bet to be the Hague or Ed Miliband figure to take over in Opposition. Barclay also backed Sunak for leader last year and I would expect much of Sunak's parliamentary backing to shift to him. Tugendhat would also likely stand again and probably pick up support from the One Nation wing of Tory MPs. Jenrick I don't think has much support in the House or amongst members

    Regarding Barclay, I'm not sure that "Continuity Abject Failure" is a recipe for success.
    How the likely next Labour government performs on the economy is likely to be the main determinant of whether it is re elected or not. As long as the Conservatives don't pick a complete ideological extremist, which Barclay isn't, they would therefore have a shot if inflation and interest rates are high, taxes go up and strikes resume under a Starmer government
    Likely to be tougher than that I think. Provided Labour don't have their own self-inflicted disaster then they will very much be able to adopt the Cameron/Osborne strategy of blaming any pain on the previous regime and saying "stick with us, we'll fix it - don't let the vandals back in".

    A large chunk of the electorate - look at their polling numbers with people of working age - has become so repulsed by the Tories that it'll take a pretty big mea culpa and apology for the past decade to get them to look at them again. Even if Labour disappoints.
    Depends, all over the western world newly elected governments have swiftly seen their poll numbers decline from Germany to Australia and the US due to inflation and interest rates and cost of living particularly. Remember too the Conservatives can win most seats even if they lose most voters under 45
    In periods of time when the act of being the government is unpopular, something is going on. On the whole being wildly popular is linked, at the moment, with some sort of populist approach which has not yet exploded.

    Is there not a sort of law of politics, at least for the free world to be discerned: When governments are all unpopular, there is something unpopular about reality.

    Footnote: There is a universal assumption that the next government will shortly be unpopular. This may test the rule.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    edited February 10
    The RFU are just gonna plod on and on and on with Borthwick, until about 3 people are turning up at Twickenham, and tickets cost 2p
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    Box kick, box kick, box kick

    FUCK OFF
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Almost a great start to the second half for England.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    Even the mighty CURSE OF LEONDAMUS cannot save this. Wales to win by 12
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    MJW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly if the relatively centrist Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election, the odds are that they will take the blame and the party will shift back in a more rightwing direction.

    If party members alone had the final say Badenoch would be odds on the be next Conservative leader and Leader of the Opposition. However when she stood last summer neither she, nor Braverman nor even Mordaunt go enough support from Tory MPs to make the final 2 to get to the membership.

    Other Cabinet members like Cleverly or Barclay therefore would come into contention as they are more likely to get support amongst Conservative MPs. However Cleverly may have damaged his chances with his poor taste 'date rape' joke so Barclay, a Leaver but not ERG, a former Health Secretary and current Environment Secretary might be a good outside bet to be the Hague or Ed Miliband figure to take over in Opposition. Barclay also backed Sunak for leader last year and I would expect much of Sunak's parliamentary backing to shift to him. Tugendhat would also likely stand again and probably pick up support from the One Nation wing of Tory MPs. Jenrick I don't think has much support in the House or amongst members

    Regarding Barclay, I'm not sure that "Continuity Abject Failure" is a recipe for success.
    How the likely next Labour government performs on the economy is likely to be the main determinant of whether it is re elected or not. As long as the Conservatives don't pick a complete ideological extremist, which Barclay isn't, they would therefore have a shot if inflation and interest rates are high, taxes go up and strikes resume under a Starmer government
    Likely to be tougher than that I think. Provided Labour don't have their own self-inflicted disaster then they will very much be able to adopt the Cameron/Osborne strategy of blaming any pain on the previous regime and saying "stick with us, we'll fix it - don't let the vandals back in".

    A large chunk of the electorate - look at their polling numbers with people of working age - has become so repulsed by the Tories that it'll take a pretty big mea culpa and apology for the past decade to get them to look at them again. Even if Labour disappoints.
    Depends, all over the western world newly elected governments have swiftly seen their poll numbers decline from Germany to Australia and the US due to inflation and interest rates and cost of living particularly. Remember too the Conservatives can win most seats even if they lose most voters under 45
    In periods of time when the act of being the government is unpopular, something is going on. On the whole being wildly popular is linked, at the moment, with some sort of populist approach which has not yet exploded.

    Is there not a sort of law of politics, at least for the free world to be discerned: When governments are all unpopular, there is something unpopular about reality.

    Footnote: There is a universal assumption that the next government will shortly be unpopular. This may test the rule.
    There's also an assumption this will continue.
    It's only a few short years since governments the world over were cruising to re-election (apart from Trump).
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837
    The average Tory member is a selfish, reactionary, elderly golf club bore from the Home Counties. A defeat will leave them hurt, smarting, furiously convinced that Sunak was beaten because he was a wet socialist, and very eager to seek out and install whichever leadership candidate appears the most ideologically pure and in lockstep with their base instincts. Expect them to pick the most virulent right wing populist available; Braverman is the standout candidate provided that she holds her seat.

    As far as the fiasco at Twickenham is concerned, the only surprise is that England - so poor that they almost lost to Italy - aren't further behind. Still, the best thing to do with almost any England team is to proceed from the assumption that they will find a way to lose. That way, if they don't, it comes as a pleasant surprise.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    it's all..... so...... boring
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    I think Dave is the one if Sunak falls under a bus and we need a PM PDQ for emergencies but I am not backing that eventuality.

    Dave has more chance of LD members electing him next LD leader than Conservative members electing him next Conservative leader ie zero
    You need to read, I am talking about the next PM market.
    He wouldn't get that either, Tory MPs wouldn't pick him now either and he couldn't do the job from the Lords. He can be FS there but that is it
    Out of interest, who do you think should be the next Tory to have their name above the Downing Street door?
    My preference is keep Rishi until the election and if he loses then go for Barclay or Tugendhat, although I think the latter isn't Brexity or rightwing enough for the membership
    Barclay or Tugendhat is the Tories admitting they are out of power for a decade. Anonymous mediocrities, dull and directionless

    I accept you aren't blessed with talent, but you can surely do better than either of them
    It has to be Cleverly, Badenoch or Braverman.
    Braverman would be my choice

    The Tories HAVE to try being ACTUALLY rightwing. They haven't done this for decades, unless you count the miserablism of the Cam-Oz Austerity Years

    Braverman has the guts and intellect to do that, she probably won't get far with it (the defeat will be so bad) but at least she might give the Tories a sense of political coherence: remembering what they are FOR

    Badenoch is insubstantial, Cleverly is a centrist manager businessman


    Braverman appears to be either disliked or distrusted by many of her colleagues. That was true of Boris too, of course, but has she got enough charisma to bulldoze her way into the final two?

    I think the thing with John Hayes would also make me wary of betting on her. And it feels like there's quite a lot about her that could be used to, at the very least, fuel damaging rumours. Does she have a strategy for dealing with that? Is there more to come out in the course of a campaign?

    Again, with enough charisma she could try styling it out - "Yes, I'm prepared to be sneaky and a bit underhand - it shows how determined I am" - but it would be a bit of a stretch for her to turn it into a positive.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    Police prioritising searching for the corpse of a thug rather than catching villains.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,802
    The job of LOTO is very different to the job of PM. It is very unlikely that whoever replaces Sunak after the massacre will ever be PM. Their job will be more modest but equally difficult. They need to cut a public profile that helps bring a shattered party together, that can competently and effectively cut through to whatever Starmer chooses to do, if anything. They need to reconnect with a lot of alienated natural supporters and persuade them to come back.

    The target for 2028 or 2029 will be to get back into the fight, to get to the point that a challenge for power becomes possible. Its a job that Hague and Howard failed at despite the rhetorical brilliance of the former and the solid competence of the latter. Its hard. The result was that Cameron started too far behind to hope to get a majority.

    Administrative competence is therefore a useful but not core skill of this job. What is more important is the ability to sell ideas to a broad audience. For me, Badenoch and Mordaunt could both do this. Badenoch is more of a political thinker than a doer and Mordaunt is very good on her feet if intellectually limited but that is ok. Braverman, in contrast, would further isolate the party in a silo which the forthcoming election will demonstrate all too clearly does not have enough votes in it. So she will probably win.
  • HarperHarper Posts: 197
    pigeon said:

    The average Tory member is a selfish, reactionary, elderly golf club bore from the Home Counties. A defeat will leave them hurt, smarting, furiously convinced that Sunak was beaten because he was a wet socialist, and very eager to seek out and install whichever leadership candidate appears the most ideologically pure and in lockstep with their base instincts. Expect them to pick the most virulent right wing populist available; Braverman is the standout candidate provided that she holds her seat.

    As far as the fiasco at Twickenham is concerned, the only surprise is that England - so poor that they almost lost to Italy - aren't further behind. Still, the best thing to do with almost any England team is to proceed from the assumption that they will find a way to lose. That way, if they don't, it comes as a pleasant surprise.

    Rather stereotypical dont you think. Some tory members may be like that but plenty arent.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    I can't actually be arsed to watch this any more

    I am not sure I have ever said this before. OK just before the World Cup when we lost to Fiji. But still

    Jesus it's poor
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,107
    Anthem for Twickenham:

    People have moved on but I've carried on thinking about this, giving it the attention it deserves. And I know it's my own suggestion but I do think SUNNY AFTERNOON by the (intensely English) Kinks is a winner.

    It really lends itself. Everyone knows it and it can be sung throatily without music. Imagine Help Me Help Me Help Me Sail Away-ay coming in unison from 50,000 mouths.

    You can also chant a "whoa" after key lines.

    My girlfriend's run off with my car (whoa!)
    Gone back to her ma and pa (whoa!)
    Telling tales of ...

    And here's where we just have to make a slight change to the words.

    "drunkeness and cruelty" is how it used to go.

    That's no good. It trivialises domestic violence, implies women exaggerate and make false allegations, invites us to take the side of abusers.

    What I suggest is we replace with "drinking beer and puking"

    Scans just as well, still makes sense, plus will really resonate with a rugby crowd.

    Rest of the song as is.

    Yep, pleased with that. Great use of my time.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    England's forwards are massive.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,826
    See if Wales bring on Mason Grady.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,988
    @therealdcf1

    Any lower to the ground and I would need to ask @AussieGrit to return the ball !!


  • MJWMJW Posts: 1,728
    HYUFD said:

    MJW said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly if the relatively centrist Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election, the odds are that they will take the blame and the party will shift back in a more rightwing direction.

    If party members alone had the final say Badenoch would be odds on the be next Conservative leader and Leader of the Opposition. However when she stood last summer neither she, nor Braverman nor even Mordaunt go enough support from Tory MPs to make the final 2 to get to the membership.

    Other Cabinet members like Cleverly or Barclay therefore would come into contention as they are more likely to get support amongst Conservative MPs. However Cleverly may have damaged his chances with his poor taste 'date rape' joke so Barclay, a Leaver but not ERG, a former Health Secretary and current Environment Secretary might be a good outside bet to be the Hague or Ed Miliband figure to take over in Opposition. Barclay also backed Sunak for leader last year and I would expect much of Sunak's parliamentary backing to shift to him. Tugendhat would also likely stand again and probably pick up support from the One Nation wing of Tory MPs. Jenrick I don't think has much support in the House or amongst members

    Regarding Barclay, I'm not sure that "Continuity Abject Failure" is a recipe for success.
    How the likely next Labour government performs on the economy is likely to be the main determinant of whether it is re elected or not. As long as the Conservatives don't pick a complete ideological extremist, which Barclay isn't, they would therefore have a shot if inflation and interest rates are high, taxes go up and strikes resume under a Starmer government
    Likely to be tougher than that I think. Provided Labour don't have their own self-inflicted disaster then they will very much be able to adopt the Cameron/Osborne strategy of blaming any pain on the previous regime and saying "stick with us, we'll fix it - don't let the vandals back in".

    A large chunk of the electorate - look at their polling numbers with people of working age - has become so repulsed by the Tories that it'll take a pretty big mea culpa and apology for the past decade to get them to look at them again. Even if Labour disappoints.
    Depends, all over the western world newly elected governments have swiftly seen their poll numbers decline from Germany to Australia and the US due to inflation and interest rates and cost of living particularly. Remember too the Conservatives can win most seats even if they lose most voters under 45
    True, but they've often been losing votes to insurgent parties (less of an option in the UK due to the electoral system) and being the largest party isn't good enough when every other party - except possibly the DUP - will refuse to join a coalition you are part of. Reform would - but if they're getting enough seats to be a potential partner, the Tories are toast anyway.

    Plus, at the moment it's way worse than the Under 45s being more likely to vote Labour. The Under 60s have what we used to regard as student-like voting patterns. They're not just unpopular, they're polling at a similar level to the minor parties. People who should be solid Tories are disgusted by them - and may be put off for life.

    Things obviously likely improve in the face of a less than-popular Lab government - but it needs to change a lot and perceptions the Tories are the party of decline, chaos, selfish blockers, and a grand project that has been an abject failure have to be addressed.

    Their name is absolute mud - and rightly so. It's going to take a lot more - much more of a change and a mea culpa -than Barclay or whoever sounding a bit less mad and rabid than the crazies but saying that fundamentally, the last 14 years have been an example of governance worthy of voting back those responsible back in any time soon.

  • TazTaz Posts: 14,372
    Scott_xP said:

    @therealdcf1

    Any lower to the ground and I would need to ask @AussieGrit to return the ball !!


    Pretty much confirms what we were all thinking
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,628
    edited February 10
    Hun update.

    The Orange Order has accused a panel of Scotland’s most senior judges of “not taking crimes against the Protestant community seriously” after it ruled that the term “hun” was not a sectarian slur.

    The Loyal Orange institution, known for organising contentious marches in central Scotland and across Northern Ireland, said that the proportion of hate crimes that was committed against Protestants was 16 per cent — the same proportion as against Muslims — and they demanded government talks to quell the attacks.

    Police Scotland statistics show that in 47 per cent of religion-aggravated hate crimes, the perpetrator showed prejudice towards the Catholic community.

    David Walters, executive officer of the Grand Orange Lodge of Scotland, said that the mantra “one Scotland, many cultures” did not resonate “if you are Protestant to many of our members”.

    In a ruling that clarified what was and was not offensive language, appeal judges said the expression “hun” did not contain a religious aspect or indicate malice or ill will towards Protestants.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hun-is-a-slur-says-orange-order-leader-r8rg7sk7k
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Great play from England for that try.
  • Michael Gove: If the young can’t get housing, they will abandon democracy

    Restoring young people’s dreams of a roof over their heads will give the Conservatives — and democracy itself — hope of survival, says the housing secretary


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-if-the-young-feel-the-system-is-rigged-they-will-abandon-democracy-xbrvhk5xd
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,107
    Scott_xP said:

    @therealdcf1

    Any lower to the ground and I would need to ask @AussieGrit to return the ball !!

    Didn't they have that angle then? Looks clear enough.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,815

    Michael Gove: If the young can’t get housing, they will abandon democracy

    Restoring young people’s dreams of a roof over their heads will give the Conservatives — and democracy itself — hope of survival, says the housing secretary


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-if-the-young-feel-the-system-is-rigged-they-will-abandon-democracy-xbrvhk5xd

    Is that why the populists Tories are refusing to build any of the damn things?
  • Michael Gove: If the young can’t get housing, they will abandon democracy

    Restoring young people’s dreams of a roof over their heads will give the Conservatives — and democracy itself — hope of survival, says the housing secretary


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-if-the-young-feel-the-system-is-rigged-they-will-abandon-democracy-xbrvhk5xd

    If only he was in a position to have done something about it...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,628
    edited February 10
    This should be a penalty try to England but it probably will not be because the ref is a wanker.

    There were more England players behind the ball for the Welsh try, just saying.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    So no penalty try because the ref couldn’t guarantee that England would have scored in acres of space but a penalty try to Wales in first half when there was no guarantee they would score surrounded by England played with Itoje under the ball. OK.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,365
    edited February 10
    I'm trying to think how often first-time leaders of the opposition - i.e. the first leaders of the opposition elected/chosen by a party on being turned out of government- have become PM.

    The list is Heath, Derby, Russell, Peel.

    That takes us back 250 years.

    It is not common.

    Of course, some former Prime Ministers have led the opposition and returned to power. Wilson. Churchill. Macdonald. Baldwin. Salisbury. Gladstone. Disraeli. Palmerston.

    It's worth noting that none of them have been born since the end of the First World War.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,365
    @Leon

    Told you Wales would find a way to mess this up...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    Michael Gove: If the young can’t get housing, they will abandon democracy

    Restoring young people’s dreams of a roof over their heads will give the Conservatives — and democracy itself — hope of survival, says the housing secretary


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-if-the-young-feel-the-system-is-rigged-they-will-abandon-democracy-xbrvhk5xd

    If only he was in a position to have done something about it...
    Now if only we still had Council houses being built, and we hadn’t sold off the ones we had!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    MJW said:

    My preference would be for the right of the party to coalesce around Jake Berry, get him through to the members run off, and the rest is history. Not just because my £3 bet on him would turn into £500.

    However, far from showing recent signs of being up for the fight, he seems to have gained a second belly and only hit the news recently for being handbagged about the post office scandal by Ian Hislop on TV. He needs to get on the Robert Jenrick diet and get himself out there.

    Nadine Dorries says that the powers that be will get Sunk out before the GE. I don't see this as entirely implausible. That means no Boris.

    Nadine Dorries talks more shit than Marjorie Taylor Greene.

    A few weeks ago she was saying the plan was for Cameron to replace Sunak after the election.

    Believing Nadine Dorries is a rookie error.
    Yes, I do see that. But her theory that influential Tories are shitting themselves because Sunak is rubbish, and would therefore prefer to roll the dice with Kemi, is not without basic logic.
    Where it falls down though is asking why any Tory with serious long-term leadership ambitions - as opposed to someone at the end of a career and happy to take one for the team and have been PM - would want the job.

    You're liable to be on the end of shellacking you'll partly get the blame for, and despised by those who wanted to keep Sunak and blamed those being disloyal. Meaning you probably won't last all that long as LoTO.

    You get to be PM, but as a 'quiz question PM' remembered as a footnote. The only other reason would be to get through a passion project - but there's not time for that.

    Why would Braverman or Badenoch - who both hold absurdly safe seats - allow themselves to front a leadership coup that likely results in electoral humiliation and the burning up of their big shot? You'd wait, let Sunak fail then ride the recriminations unless you really did think an historic wipeout was likely.

    The only way I could see Sunak ousted is to install a caretaker to stem the losses. But that's very unlikely as the remaining party greybeards have the most loyalty to Sunak. The Tory Party is also so ungovernable that it would be almost impossible to stitch it up.
    The idea isn't to stem the losses; the idea is the remain in power. The thought is that Bojo turned it around in 6 months, let's give Kemi that mantle and do it again.

    I myself would like to think that's possible - I despair of the miserablist consensus of the three main parties and I don't think I'm alone. I think the election will be won by a party with a good retail offer, and that means seriously upsetting the applecart and taking some sacred cows to market. I'm not sure that Kemi and her backers have the balls or the brains to do it, but I do agree that it's possible.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,365

    Hun update.

    The Orange Order has accused a panel of Scotland’s most senior judges of “not taking crimes against the Protestant community seriously” after it ruled that the term “hun” was not a sectarian slur.

    The Loyal Orange institution, known for organising contentious marches in central Scotland and across Northern Ireland, said that the proportion of hate crimes that was committed against Protestants was 16 per cent — the same proportion as against Muslims — and they demanded government talks to quell the attacks.

    Police Scotland statistics show that in 47 per cent of religion-aggravated hate crimes, the perpetrator showed prejudice towards the Catholic community.

    David Walters, executive officer of the Grand Orange Lodge of Scotland, said that the mantra “one Scotland, many cultures” did not resonate “if you are Protestant to many of our members”.

    In a ruling that clarified what was and was not offensive language, appeal judges said the expression “hun” did not contain a religious aspect or indicate malice or ill will towards Protestants.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hun-is-a-slur-says-orange-order-leader-r8rg7sk7k

    So just to be clear -

    We can shout 'hun' at Tom Harrison very loudly every time we see him?

    And it's not sectarian or xenophobic? Just a reference to the Hun-dred nonsense he invented?
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,837

    Michael Gove: If the young can’t get housing, they will abandon democracy

    Restoring young people’s dreams of a roof over their heads will give the Conservatives — and democracy itself — hope of survival, says the housing secretary


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-if-the-young-feel-the-system-is-rigged-they-will-abandon-democracy-xbrvhk5xd

    The old (or the majority of them that are owner occupiers, at any rate) are the largest voter bloc, they're mostly virulent nimbies, most Tory members are old, and moreover the grey vote are the only constituency (except for the very rich) that any of the big parties care about courting anymore. So, housing scarcity will continue to be promoted, in order to pump up prices, enrich existing owners along with landlords, and spare the minted elderly from having Barratt boxes spoil their peace and their countryside views.

    Prediction: Gove is right, increasingly large numbers of young people will abandon democracy and not bother to vote. Turnout at the next election will be down across the board, but the effect will be more pronounced the younger down the age profile you go. And they're right to do so, because voting is essentially pointless. This country treats the young like absolute shit and will continue to do so regardless of the identity of the cloned suit inhabiting 10 Downing Street.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Michael Gove: If the young can’t get housing, they will abandon democracy

    Restoring young people’s dreams of a roof over their heads will give the Conservatives — and democracy itself — hope of survival, says the housing secretary


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-if-the-young-feel-the-system-is-rigged-they-will-abandon-democracy-xbrvhk5xd

    I think, Michael Gove, you might have realised this about 15 years ago. Cretin.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    edited February 10

    Michael Gove: If the young can’t get housing, they will abandon democracy

    Restoring young people’s dreams of a roof over their heads will give the Conservatives — and democracy itself — hope of survival, says the housing secretary


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-if-the-young-feel-the-system-is-rigged-they-will-abandon-democracy-xbrvhk5xd

    If only he was in a position to have done something about it...
    Quite. And he abandoned his changing of the EU's nonsensical water regulations that would have secured another 100,000 houses that already have planning permission being built. Pathetic overrated politician.
  • ydoethur said:

    I'm trying to think how often first-time leaders of the opposition - i.e. the first leaders of the opposition elected/chosen by a party on being turned out of government- have become PM.

    The list is Heath, Derby, Russell, Peel.

    That takes us back 250 years.

    It is not common.

    Of course, some former Prime Ministers have led the opposition and returned to power. Wilson. Churchill. Macdonald. Baldwin. Salisbury. Gladstone. Disraeli. Palmerston.

    It's worth noting that none of them have been born since the end of the First World War.

    And I suspect Heath (landslide defeat on his first outing in '66) wouldn't have got a second chance these days. Nor would Wilson have been allowed to hang around until '74.

    We take the "kick out the bums" aspect of FPTP a bit too seriously. Which is why the next Conservative PM quite possibly isn't an MP yet
  • Leon said:

    I can't actually be arsed to watch this any more

    I am not sure I have ever said this before. OK just before the World Cup when we lost to Fiji. But still

    Jesus it's poor

    Hahahahahahahahahaha.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Michael Gove: If the young can’t get housing, they will abandon democracy

    Restoring young people’s dreams of a roof over their heads will give the Conservatives — and democracy itself — hope of survival, says the housing secretary


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-if-the-young-feel-the-system-is-rigged-they-will-abandon-democracy-xbrvhk5xd

    Michael Gove is onto the problem ten years after the much underrated Ed Milliband said the same thing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    Fucksake

    But a win, I guess
This discussion has been closed.