Speaking of the ukraine war russians are on the verge of taking Avdiivka.
The defense of Avdiivka has reached a critical situation. The fortress is on the verge of being cut and falling. Zaluzhny is trying to resign before the capture of Avdiivka by the Russians, so that he can then blame Zelensky for everything.
SnowStorm | Collapse of Avdiivka | The Crisis In Kyiv Is Worsening. Military Summary For 2024.02.02
Amazing how an 'objective' news source on the Ukraine war doesn't find time to mention the sinking of a Russian warship or the attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure.
Good morning anyway. Or should I say afternoon/evening/night?
Speaking of the ukraine war russians are on the verge of taking Avdiivka.
The defense of Avdiivka has reached a critical situation. The fortress is on the verge of being cut and falling. Zaluzhny is trying to resign before the capture of Avdiivka by the Russians, so that he can then blame Zelensky for everything.
SnowStorm | Collapse of Avdiivka | The Crisis In Kyiv Is Worsening. Military Summary For 2024.02.02
Amazing how an 'objective' news source on the Ukraine war doesn't find time to mention the sinking of a Russian warship or the attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure.
Good morning anyway. Or should I say afternoon/evening/night?
Our troll might actually be correct, for once. Or at least have the glimmer of a point. AIUI even Ukrainian officials say that Avdiika will probably fall to the Russians; their aim is to make that as painful as possible for them. Remember that this is in the context of the Russian presidential elections, and Putin wanting some 'good news' beforehand. As far as I'm aware whilst the Russians have made small progress, Avdiika is not yet near falling.
But Russia, powerful as it is, probably cannot afford many more Avdiikas.
Even allowing for the new boundaries, I'm dubious about any poll that shows Labour making such major advances in Powys. Remember, they haven't even come second in Montgomeryshire since 1955 (and that was because the Tories didn't stand against Clement Davies).
I expect the Tories to go backwards but I'll be surprised if they disappear entirely a la 1997.
It was the 1997 wipe-out that convinced the Conservatives the whole electoral system was corrupt and therefore justified putting a blue thumb on the scale.
Speaking of gerrymandering, here is Rory on The Rest is Politics:-
What David Cameron tried to do with the LibDems in 2011-2012 which is abolish the House of Lords in exchange for the LibDems voting to reduce the number of constituencies and redraw the boundaries in a way that was supposed to guarantee the Conservatives were going to get a majority https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plXNBUiX5bY
The 20mph limit fits into this. A silly policy that only inconveniences people with minimal benefit.
Yup, those Russian armies trying to get to Kyiv must be furious at not being able to move quickly.
Putin, on sanctions, in an FT piece (£) about the ‘resilient Russian economy’
‘“They predicted decline, failure, collapse — that we would stand back, give up, or fall apart. It makes you want to show [them] a well-known gesture, but I won’t do that, there are a lot of ladies here,” Putin said to a round of applause. “They won’t succeed! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs.”
Russia’s president gloated that Russia’s economy had not only withstood an onslaught of sanctions from western countries — but was now bigger than all but two of them. He was referring to the World Bank’s ranking of GDP by purchasing power parity, by which Russia slightly edges ahead of Germany. “All of our industry did their part,” he said.’
Last night two teenagers were sentenced to life imprisonment for murdering someone simply because she was a woman with a penis.
Thought I would mention it because those most enthusiastically posting about women with penises on this board, haven't got round to mentioning it themselves.
They didn’t murder her “simply because she was a woman with a penis”. Her death was a horrific act by two disgusting people who wanted to kill someone, anyone and their tragic victim’s transgender identity was an additional - secondary according to the judge who actually sat through all the evidence - factor.
It’s pretty grim of you to use this as some sort of point scoring post. Hope you feel virtuous now.
From the judge's sentencing statement:
Your messages about Brianna were transphobic. You consistently referred to her in a way that was dehumanising, calling her “it”. You also described her as a “femboy thing”. When discussing killing Brianna, you agreed with Scarlett that she would be the easiest victim and said “and I want to see if it will scream like a man or a girl.” After the failed attempt on 28 January and in answer to Scarlett expressing her desire to see Brianna suffering, you said “Really all I wanted is to see what size dick it had”. Because Scarlett is an unreliable witness, I will not use her evidence that you “had a problem with” gay and transgender people against you. Nor will I dwell on the unpleasant messages about someone being gay and what you might do to them. But in your messages about Brianna, you undoubtedly displayed hostility towards her based on her transgender identity.
Yes I am making a free speech point. The hatred towards trans people that these two fed off is real. I don't think the hatred is due to trans people being over enthusiastic in claiming their rights. Free speech enables people to say what they want. It also allows them not to say what they probably should.
They just wanted to kill someone. Who exactly they killed was almost irrelevant.
Yes and no. They wanted to kill someone; it was just that their proposed targets were all people who were, in their eyes, marginalised. In the same way that if they had wanted to just beat someone up, the person they would have chosen would have been similarly 'other' in their eyes. The person they chose to kill was trans; and the way they spoke about her makes it fairly clear that the act was both homophobic *and* transphobic.
That seems fairly open-and-shut to me.
Brianna was targeted for murder, and she was targeted because she was trans.
Great though that the principle of edge cases within a specific context can’t be used to label a whole bunch of people is now accepted. It is, right?
What do you mean?
I mean that the people who use eg Karen White as a poster child for a general trans assault on the safety of women now seem keen to say that these two murderers are totally unconnected to a wider GC movement which doesn’t have the teeniest anti trans bone in its body, oh no, definitely not.
The 20mph limit fits into this. A silly policy that only inconveniences people with minimal benefit.
Yup, those Russian armies trying to get to Kyiv must be furious at not being able to move quickly.
Putin, on sanctions, in an FT piece (£) about the ‘resilient Russian economy’
‘“They predicted decline, failure, collapse — that we would stand back, give up, or fall apart. It makes you want to show [them] a well-known gesture, but I won’t do that, there are a lot of ladies here,” Putin said to a round of applause. “They won’t succeed! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs.”
Russia’s president gloated that Russia’s economy had not only withstood an onslaught of sanctions from western countries — but was now bigger than all but two of them. He was referring to the World Bank’s ranking of GDP by purchasing power parity, by which Russia slightly edges ahead of Germany. “All of our industry did their part,” he said.’
Are they going to win?
Not unless we stop supplying Ukraine.
Or Ukraine loses the will to fight, due to excessive casualties
The 20mph limit fits into this. A silly policy that only inconveniences people with minimal benefit.
Yup, those Russian armies trying to get to Kyiv must be furious at not being able to move quickly.
Putin, on sanctions, in an FT piece (£) about the ‘resilient Russian economy’
‘“They predicted decline, failure, collapse — that we would stand back, give up, or fall apart. It makes you want to show [them] a well-known gesture, but I won’t do that, there are a lot of ladies here,” Putin said to a round of applause. “They won’t succeed! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs.”
Russia’s president gloated that Russia’s economy had not only withstood an onslaught of sanctions from western countries — but was now bigger than all but two of them. He was referring to the World Bank’s ranking of GDP by purchasing power parity, by which Russia slightly edges ahead of Germany. “All of our industry did their part,” he said.’
Took her 10 years to spot it , not exactly showing she has any journalistic skills. These people were praising Sturgeon to the rafters long long after most people knew the truth, strange they kept it very secret in the media till now.
You’d be struggling to find any of Dalgety’s output that doesn’t involve having a go at Sturgeon or the SNP. It pretty much defines her journalistic skills, such as they are.
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?
I shall get back to you!
By car or on foot?
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
Those were just examples FYI. It's a pretty pervasive trend across Wales.
But Wales is pervasively hilly.
Is it the danger of getting run over by mad Welsh drivers ? Perhaps that's the true rationale for the 20mph limit.
Good point. I can see why you'd want to drive with so many opposed to road safety measures. Vicious cycle.
The 20mph limit fits into this. A silly policy that only inconveniences people with minimal benefit.
Yup, those Russian armies trying to get to Kyiv must be furious at not being able to move quickly.
Putin, on sanctions, in an FT piece (£) about the ‘resilient Russian economy’
‘“They predicted decline, failure, collapse — that we would stand back, give up, or fall apart. It makes you want to show [them] a well-known gesture, but I won’t do that, there are a lot of ladies here,” Putin said to a round of applause. “They won’t succeed! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs.”
Russia’s president gloated that Russia’s economy had not only withstood an onslaught of sanctions from western countries — but was now bigger than all but two of them. He was referring to the World Bank’s ranking of GDP by purchasing power parity, by which Russia slightly edges ahead of Germany. “All of our industry did their part,” he said.’
Are they going to win?
I doubt it. I am not seeing any clear explanation for how they are paying for all this other than by selling the family silver. Trouble is they may have quite a bit of it. There have been a few murmurs recently that Putin is looking for a ceasefire and messaging discreetly towards the US thus. If so he must be shitting himself. Why would HE be the one seeking a ceasefire? He has achieved almost nothing other than a shaky land bridge to Crimea. I'm a little surprised at how relaxed the Ukrainians appear about the prospect of President Trump/gong it alone. This may of course simply be an elaborate bluff, the President was formerly an actor but it's a good one if so.
The approach of the west should be fine, Mr Putin. You want to stop the war. The Ukrainians are comfortable with continuing fighting. So what concessions are you going to make?
The 20mph limit fits into this. A silly policy that only inconveniences people with minimal benefit.
Yup, those Russian armies trying to get to Kyiv must be furious at not being able to move quickly.
Putin, on sanctions, in an FT piece (£) about the ‘resilient Russian economy’
‘“They predicted decline, failure, collapse — that we would stand back, give up, or fall apart. It makes you want to show [them] a well-known gesture, but I won’t do that, there are a lot of ladies here,” Putin said to a round of applause. “They won’t succeed! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs.”
Russia’s president gloated that Russia’s economy had not only withstood an onslaught of sanctions from western countries — but was now bigger than all but two of them. He was referring to the World Bank’s ranking of GDP by purchasing power parity, by which Russia slightly edges ahead of Germany. “All of our industry did their part,” he said.’
Are they going to win?
They are pariahs forever, in the end they will get a good whupping. Sure Poland are itching to give them some of what they have received from the barstewards over the years.
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?
I shall get back to you!
By car or on foot?
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
Those were just examples FYI. It's a pretty pervasive trend across Wales.
But Wales is pervasively hilly.
Is it the danger of getting run over by mad Welsh drivers ? Perhaps that's the true rationale for the 20mph limit.
Good point. I can see why you'd want to drive with so many opposed to road safety measures. Vicious cycle.
Certainly cycling is a vicious business there.
Sadly I have no Scottish data to compare Wales and England to, with the delay on the census. I like to think we are big walkers, but...
The 20mph limit fits into this. A silly policy that only inconveniences people with minimal benefit.
Yup, those Russian armies trying to get to Kyiv must be furious at not being able to move quickly.
Putin, on sanctions, in an FT piece (£) about the ‘resilient Russian economy’
‘“They predicted decline, failure, collapse — that we would stand back, give up, or fall apart. It makes you want to show [them] a well-known gesture, but I won’t do that, there are a lot of ladies here,” Putin said to a round of applause. “They won’t succeed! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs.”
Russia’s president gloated that Russia’s economy had not only withstood an onslaught of sanctions from western countries — but was now bigger than all but two of them. He was referring to the World Bank’s ranking of GDP by purchasing power parity, by which Russia slightly edges ahead of Germany. “All of our industry did their part,” he said.’
Are they going to win?
I doubt it. I am not seeing any clear explanation for how they are paying for all this other than by selling the family silver. Trouble is they may have quite a bit of it. There have been a few murmurs recently that Putin is looking for a ceasefire and messaging discreetly towards the US thus. If so he must be shitting himself. Why would HE be the one seeking a ceasefire? He has achieved almost nothing other than a shaky land bridge to Crimea. I'm a little surprised at how relaxed the Ukrainians appear about the prospect of President Trump/gong it alone. This may of course simply be an elaborate bluff, the President was formerly an actor but it's a good one if so.
The approach of the west should be fine, Mr Putin. You want to stop the war. The Ukrainians are comfortable with continuing fighting. So what concessions are you going to make?
It's interesting that a number of oil refineries and gas terminals are suffering issues at the moment. Not all of these issues will be down to Ukraine, but a number are. It's already led to Russia cutting exports of some products.
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?
I shall get back to you!
By car or on foot?
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
Those were just examples FYI. It's a pretty pervasive trend across Wales.
But Wales is pervasively hilly.
Is it the danger of getting run over by mad Welsh drivers ? Perhaps that's the true rationale for the 20mph limit.
Good point. I can see why you'd want to drive with so many opposed to road safety measures. Vicious cycle.
Certainly cycling is a vicious business there.
Sadly I have no Scottish data to compare Wales and England to, with the delay on the census. I like to think we are big walkers, but...
Try connecting with people who don't live in overcrowded cities so are able to drive because the roads are open and there's available parking.
The 20mph limit fits into this. A silly policy that only inconveniences people with minimal benefit.
Yup, those Russian armies trying to get to Kyiv must be furious at not being able to move quickly.
Putin, on sanctions, in an FT piece (£) about the ‘resilient Russian economy’
‘“They predicted decline, failure, collapse — that we would stand back, give up, or fall apart. It makes you want to show [them] a well-known gesture, but I won’t do that, there are a lot of ladies here,” Putin said to a round of applause. “They won’t succeed! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs.”
Russia’s president gloated that Russia’s economy had not only withstood an onslaught of sanctions from western countries — but was now bigger than all but two of them. He was referring to the World Bank’s ranking of GDP by purchasing power parity, by which Russia slightly edges ahead of Germany. “All of our industry did their part,” he said.’
Are they going to win?
I doubt it. I am not seeing any clear explanation for how they are paying for all this other than by selling the family silver. Trouble is they may have quite a bit of it. There have been a few murmurs recently that Putin is looking for a ceasefire and messaging discreetly towards the US thus. If so he must be shitting himself. Why would HE be the one seeking a ceasefire? He has achieved almost nothing other than a shaky land bridge to Crimea. I'm a little surprised at how relaxed the Ukrainians appear about the prospect of President Trump/gong it alone. This may of course simply be an elaborate bluff, the President was formerly an actor but it's a good one if so.
The approach of the west should be fine, Mr Putin. You want to stop the war. The Ukrainians are comfortable with continuing fighting. So what concessions are you going to make?
They are shipping metric fucktons of oil and gas, earning near record amounts of $$
And the conversion to a war economy has acted as a Keynesian stimulus. Long term this probably cannot last, but it might easily last long enough for the Ukrainians to tire, and seek peace
Last night two teenagers were sentenced to life imprisonment for murdering someone simply because she was a woman with a penis.
Thought I would mention it because those most enthusiastically posting about women with penises on this board, haven't got round to mentioning it themselves.
They didn’t murder her “simply because she was a woman with a penis”. Her death was a horrific act by two disgusting people who wanted to kill someone, anyone and their tragic victim’s transgender identity was an additional - secondary according to the judge who actually sat through all the evidence - factor.
It’s pretty grim of you to use this as some sort of point scoring post. Hope you feel virtuous now.
From the judge's sentencing statement:
Your messages about Brianna were transphobic. You consistently referred to her in a way that was dehumanising, calling her “it”. You also described her as a “femboy thing”. When discussing killing Brianna, you agreed with Scarlett that she would be the easiest victim and said “and I want to see if it will scream like a man or a girl.” After the failed attempt on 28 January and in answer to Scarlett expressing her desire to see Brianna suffering, you said “Really all I wanted is to see what size dick it had”. Because Scarlett is an unreliable witness, I will not use her evidence that you “had a problem with” gay and transgender people against you. Nor will I dwell on the unpleasant messages about someone being gay and what you might do to them. But in your messages about Brianna, you undoubtedly displayed hostility towards her based on her transgender identity.
Yes I am making a free speech point. The hatred towards trans people that these two fed off is real. I don't think the hatred is due to trans people being over enthusiastic in claiming their rights. Free speech enables people to say what they want. It also allows them not to say what they probably should.
They just wanted to kill someone. Who exactly they killed was almost irrelevant.
Yes and no. They wanted to kill someone; it was just that their proposed targets were all people who were, in their eyes, marginalised. In the same way that if they had wanted to just beat someone up, the person they would have chosen would have been similarly 'other' in their eyes. The person they chose to kill was trans; and the way they spoke about her makes it fairly clear that the act was both homophobic *and* transphobic.
That seems fairly open-and-shut to me.
Brianna was targeted for murder, and she was targeted because she was trans.
Great though that the principle of edge cases within a specific context can’t be used to label a whole bunch of people is now accepted. It is, right?
What do you mean?
I mean that the people who use eg Karen White as a poster child for a general trans assault on the safety of women now seem keen to say that these two murderers are totally unconnected to a wider GC movement which doesn’t have the teeniest anti trans bone in its body, oh no, definitely not.
Those saying it had nothing to do with motive seem to disagree with the judge. The evidence is pretty clear.
..Jenkinson, whose mother is a secondary school teacher, told Ratcliffe she had become “obsessed” with Brianna, and she soon put her on a list of children the teenagers wanted to kill. The others were four boys they disliked: one Ratcliffe thought was a “nonce”, another the boy considered a love rival, and two who had been mean to Jenkinson’s boyfriend...
The 20mph limit fits into this. A silly policy that only inconveniences people with minimal benefit.
Yup, those Russian armies trying to get to Kyiv must be furious at not being able to move quickly.
Putin, on sanctions, in an FT piece (£) about the ‘resilient Russian economy’
‘“They predicted decline, failure, collapse — that we would stand back, give up, or fall apart. It makes you want to show [them] a well-known gesture, but I won’t do that, there are a lot of ladies here,” Putin said to a round of applause. “They won’t succeed! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs.”
Russia’s president gloated that Russia’s economy had not only withstood an onslaught of sanctions from western countries — but was now bigger than all but two of them. He was referring to the World Bank’s ranking of GDP by purchasing power parity, by which Russia slightly edges ahead of Germany. “All of our industry did their part,” he said.’
Are they going to win?
I doubt it. I am not seeing any clear explanation for how they are paying for all this other than by selling the family silver. Trouble is they may have quite a bit of it. There have been a few murmurs recently that Putin is looking for a ceasefire and messaging discreetly towards the US thus. If so he must be shitting himself. Why would HE be the one seeking a ceasefire? He has achieved almost nothing other than a shaky land bridge to Crimea. I'm a little surprised at how relaxed the Ukrainians appear about the prospect of President Trump/gong it alone. This may of course simply be an elaborate bluff, the President was formerly an actor but it's a good one if so.
The approach of the west should be fine, Mr Putin. You want to stop the war. The Ukrainians are comfortable with continuing fighting. So what concessions are you going to make?
China and India are buying their stuff, as are the Stans.
But, these are not as rich nor lucrative markets for Russia and there's no such thing as a free lunch.
“Ukraine faces two acute issues right now: a lack of ammunition and a lack of infantry. The longer these two issues are not properly addressed, the more Ukraine's disadvantage will grow.”
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?
I shall get back to you!
By car or on foot?
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
Those were just examples FYI. It's a pretty pervasive trend across Wales.
But Wales is pervasively hilly.
Is it the danger of getting run over by mad Welsh drivers ? Perhaps that's the true rationale for the 20mph limit.
Good point. I can see why you'd want to drive with so many opposed to road safety measures. Vicious cycle.
Certainly cycling is a vicious business there.
Sadly I have no Scottish data to compare Wales and England to, with the delay on the census. I like to think we are big walkers, but...
Try connecting with people who don't live in overcrowded cities so are able to drive because the roads are open and there's available parking.
One big problem in Wales is the roads are not ‘open!’
Last night two teenagers were sentenced to life imprisonment for murdering someone simply because she was a woman with a penis.
Thought I would mention it because those most enthusiastically posting about women with penises on this board, haven't got round to mentioning it themselves.
They didn’t murder her “simply because she was a woman with a penis”. Her death was a horrific act by two disgusting people who wanted to kill someone, anyone and their tragic victim’s transgender identity was an additional - secondary according to the judge who actually sat through all the evidence - factor.
It’s pretty grim of you to use this as some sort of point scoring post. Hope you feel virtuous now.
From the judge's sentencing statement:
Your messages about Brianna were transphobic. You consistently referred to her in a way that was dehumanising, calling her “it”. You also described her as a “femboy thing”. When discussing killing Brianna, you agreed with Scarlett that she would be the easiest victim and said “and I want to see if it will scream like a man or a girl.” After the failed attempt on 28 January and in answer to Scarlett expressing her desire to see Brianna suffering, you said “Really all I wanted is to see what size dick it had”. Because Scarlett is an unreliable witness, I will not use her evidence that you “had a problem with” gay and transgender people against you. Nor will I dwell on the unpleasant messages about someone being gay and what you might do to them. But in your messages about Brianna, you undoubtedly displayed hostility towards her based on her transgender identity.
Yes I am making a free speech point. The hatred towards trans people that these two fed off is real. I don't think the hatred is due to trans people being over enthusiastic in claiming their rights. Free speech enables people to say what they want. It also allows them not to say what they probably should.
They just wanted to kill someone. Who exactly they killed was almost irrelevant.
Yes and no. They wanted to kill someone; it was just that their proposed targets were all people who were, in their eyes, marginalised. In the same way that if they had wanted to just beat someone up, the person they would have chosen would have been similarly 'other' in their eyes. The person they chose to kill was trans; and the way they spoke about her makes it fairly clear that the act was both homophobic *and* transphobic.
That seems fairly open-and-shut to me.
Brianna was targeted for murder, and she was targeted because she was trans.
Great though that the principle of edge cases within a specific context can’t be used to label a whole bunch of people is now accepted. It is, right?
What do you mean?
I mean that the people who use eg Karen White as a poster child for a general trans assault on the safety of women now seem keen to say that these two murderers are totally unconnected to a wider GC movement which doesn’t have the teeniest anti trans bone in its body, oh no, definitely not.
Those saying it had nothing to do with motive seem to disagree with the judge. The evidence is pretty clear.
..Jenkinson, whose mother is a secondary school teacher, told Ratcliffe she had become “obsessed” with Brianna, and she soon put her on a list of children the teenagers wanted to kill. The others were four boys they disliked: one Ratcliffe thought was a “nonce”, another the boy considered a love rival, and two who had been mean to Jenkinson’s boyfriend...
Everyone is correct.
It was part of the motive, but not the entire motive.
These murderers are vile and had Brianna not been there, they'd have murdered someone else instead.
The murderers did not become murderers because Brianna was trans. Brianna was murdered because she was trans.
It is clear that Labour are heading for a huge majority with the SNP in Scotland and the conservatives in Wales getting hammered
However it is how Starmer uses his majority that will count and I understand Blair and his organisation are going to be very involved, which does raise the question will the left in labour be Starmer's own ERG
@HYUFD long since predicted the rise of the right and I fear he may well be proven correct, as the two items likely to feature over the next few yeas are immigration and the rush to net zero
We live in uncertain times and I do worry as grandparents what the future has in store for our grandchildren
The 20mph limit fits into this. A silly policy that only inconveniences people with minimal benefit.
Yup, those Russian armies trying to get to Kyiv must be furious at not being able to move quickly.
Putin, on sanctions, in an FT piece (£) about the ‘resilient Russian economy’
‘“They predicted decline, failure, collapse — that we would stand back, give up, or fall apart. It makes you want to show [them] a well-known gesture, but I won’t do that, there are a lot of ladies here,” Putin said to a round of applause. “They won’t succeed! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs.”
Russia’s president gloated that Russia’s economy had not only withstood an onslaught of sanctions from western countries — but was now bigger than all but two of them. He was referring to the World Bank’s ranking of GDP by purchasing power parity, by which Russia slightly edges ahead of Germany. “All of our industry did their part,” he said.’
Are they going to win?
They are pariahs forever, in the end they will get a good whupping. Sure Poland are itching to give them some of what they have received from the barstewards over the years.
I am near certain that Poland - or maybe an alliance of Eastern European nations - will acquire nukes in the coming years. No way Warsaw will let itself become another Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol
I doubt that was on Putin’s wish list: make Poland a nuclear armed power
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?
I shall get back to you!
By car or on foot?
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
Those were just examples FYI. It's a pretty pervasive trend across Wales.
But Wales is pervasively hilly.
Valleys tend to be slopy. It comes with the territory. If you slap your open palm into wet concrete, the result looks like how the Valleys spread out from Cardiff. Travel north-south is easy, east-west is hard. You can't bike or walk it unless fit. The Valleys have a lot of ill old people.
Leon. Consider what has happened over the last year.
1) Russia has lost control of the western Black Sea and it's navy effectively neutered 2) The Ukrainian economy has survived, global food prices are stable and there's no threat of global starvation 3) Europe has coped without Russian gas as Putin has lost a large amount of revenue 4) We have not seen the kinds of attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure that we did last winter 5) Instead we are seeing attacks on Russia's critical infrastructure, in particular oil.
The Ukrainian counter offensive failed but not necessarily at an enormous cost. Putin continues with human meat waves for minimal gains. Trump is the big unknown.
Liz Truss is said to have given up on her own leadership ambitions but believes that she will have a significant role in the appointment of the next Tory leader. She has continued inviting candidates, including some in safe seats replacing outgoing MPs, to her favoured club of 5 Hertford Street in Mayfair for drinks.
Truss and other right-wing Tory MPs including Lee Anderson, the former deputy chairman of the Conservative Party, will next week launch a movement called “popular conservatism”. It aims to promote small state, economic liberalism with a socially conservative agenda.
Has she not quite understood that 'popular conservatism' is just, well, not very popular? Not to mention economically suicidal.
Is it economically suicidal? I don't think it's been tried very much lately? Let's at least wait and see how Javier Milei gets on.
Truss tried it.
The results were not altogether to her advantage...
Not true. Liz Truss tried large-state/low-tax. The results of which were altogether predictable.
Although 'popular conservatism' *is* economically suicidal because it means feathering the nests of the unproductive by screwing over workers.
Isn’t there an argument, a PM is barely in 50 days how can we have such knowledge and opinion about what it was really all about, and indeed will have blended and balanced with real politik in following months and years?
The Truss budget wasn’t so dramatic economically, just a £13B giveaway once a week later all the fiscal drag had been understood by economists - but for that first week it was mistakenly reported by the media as economic drama, largely because the Truss Premiership was being vociferously spun against by opponents outside the Conservative Party - rightly as it was new - but also from inside the Conservative Party - which was wrong in hindsight how poor Sunak had proved, and throughout the media was little support and patience.
Truss was attempt at a political repositioning of UK politics and economics that was attacked in a largely dishonest way - the vast majority of her budget has been kept in place by Sunak, the vast majority of her budget not opposed by Labour - indeed a lot of the expenditure that spooked the markets - billions of borrowing to splurge as energy support payouts, was a Starmer wheeze Truss copied - because of course polls said voters love the idea but voters are not thinking of the bigger longer picture of paying the colossal borrowing in years and decades of high taxes. Even attacking a cut in top level rate we should see as non controversial - it wasn’t novel as Osborne has already cut it for the same reason, and Brown only invented it in 2010 to slyly soil the earth for his opponents.
Indeed, the way we should see the Truss agenda is it’s not right left ideology - Starmer spent the first years of his leadership saying growth growth growth, has gone clearly quiet on that catchphrase after Truss, yet Starmer still spent last conference season saying liberalise (weapon of choice a bulldozer) the planning laws holding this country back, and build houses everywhere. The Labour Party of the last few weeks is echoing Truss, Labours message is like a stick of rock with Truss written through the middle, because Labour thinks this message is popular with the people. And indeed it is.
And indeed it is. I suggest laughing at Truss idea’s for change is so last week, the political reality is the Tories might have missed the boat here.
After the election defeat, expect “How Labour stole the Truss Agenda, and WON” essays appearing in Spectator, Telegraph and Mail.
Speaking of the ukraine war russians are on the verge of taking Avdiivka.
The defense of Avdiivka has reached a critical situation. The fortress is on the verge of being cut and falling. Zaluzhny is trying to resign before the capture of Avdiivka by the Russians, so that he can then blame Zelensky for everything.
SnowStorm | Collapse of Avdiivka | The Crisis In Kyiv Is Worsening. Military Summary For 2024.02.02
Amazing how an 'objective' news source on the Ukraine war doesn't find time to mention the sinking of a Russian warship or the attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure.
Good morning anyway. Or should I say afternoon/evening/night?
Our troll might actually be correct, for once. Or at least have the glimmer of a point. AIUI even Ukrainian officials say that Avdiika will probably fall to the Russians; their aim is to make that as painful as possible for them. Remember that this is in the context of the Russian presidential elections, and Putin wanting some 'good news' beforehand. As far as I'm aware whilst the Russians have made small progress, Avdiika is not yet near falling.
But Russia, powerful as it is, probably cannot afford many more Avdiikas.
Leon. Consider what has happened over the last year.
1) Russia has lost control of the western Black Sea and it's navy effectively neutered 2) The Ukrainian economy has survived, global food prices are stable and there's no threat of global starvation 3) Europe has coped without Russian gas as Putin has lost a large amount of revenue 4) We have not seen the kinds of attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure that we did last winter 5) Instead we are seeing attacks on Russia's critical infrastructure, in particular oil.
The Ukrainian counter offensive failed but not necessarily at an enormous cost. Putin continues with human meat waves for minimal gains. Trump is the big unknown.
Of course
I’m just providing balance for some of the Ukrainian Pom-pom waving on here. The attacks on the Russian navy are particularly notable (it makes me wonder if big navies are finished - why spend £7trn on an aircraft carrier which can be taken out with tuppeny drones?)
It’s the basic maths which is grim. Both sides are suffering hideous casualties. But Russia is five times bigger with vast assets and a surging economy - and it has the backing of China etc
North Korea alone has sent more shells to Moscow recently than the whole of Europe has sent to Kyiv
There is a prospect Ukraine will lose. We should probably prepare for it
Speaking of the ukraine war russians are on the verge of taking Avdiivka.
The defense of Avdiivka has reached a critical situation. The fortress is on the verge of being cut and falling. Zaluzhny is trying to resign before the capture of Avdiivka by the Russians, so that he can then blame Zelensky for everything.
SnowStorm | Collapse of Avdiivka | The Crisis In Kyiv Is Worsening. Military Summary For 2024.02.02
Amazing how an 'objective' news source on the Ukraine war doesn't find time to mention the sinking of a Russian warship or the attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure.
Good morning anyway. Or should I say afternoon/evening/night?
Our troll might actually be correct, for once. Or at least have the glimmer of a point. AIUI even Ukrainian officials say that Avdiika will probably fall to the Russians; their aim is to make that as painful as possible for them. Remember that this is in the context of the Russian presidential elections, and Putin wanting some 'good news' beforehand. As far as I'm aware whilst the Russians have made small progress, Avdiika is not yet near falling.
But Russia, powerful as it is, probably cannot afford many more Avdiikas.
Avdiikas sound like cocktails
Purim’s attempts to compensate for the small size of his cock have certainly made quite the tale.
It’s not good news that the Russian economy is growing faster than any G7 nation
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession
Is it a "fact"?
The data from China and Russia can't be trusted even at the best of times, why would you trust it now?
“Ukraine faces two acute issues right now: a lack of ammunition and a lack of infantry. The longer these two issues are not properly addressed, the more Ukraine's disadvantage will grow.”
We can give them all the shells in the world, but if they don’t have troops to fire them…
Perhaps I've not been paying attention but I see hardly anything now about the foreign legions helping to shore up the Uke front lines. Time for someone to make a magnificent gesture..
The severe shortage of shells is probably the single most urgent problem for Ukraine.
Artillery shortages and delays in Western military assistance may compel Ukrainian forces to make difficult decisions about allocating resources across various front sectors, ISW assesses. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1753746403195551797
It’s not good news that the Russian economy is growing faster than any G7 nation
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession
Is it a "fact"?
The data from China and Russia can't be trusted even at the best of times, why would you trust it now?
This comes from the World Bank, not Russia. Unless they’re being paid by Putin I’m not sure why they’d be shilling for him with dodgy stats
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?
I shall get back to you!
By car or on foot?
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
Those were just examples FYI. It's a pretty pervasive trend across Wales.
But Wales is pervasively hilly.
Valleys tend to be slopy. It comes with the territory. If you slap your open palm into wet concrete, the result looks like how the Valleys spread out from Cardiff. Travel north-south is easy, east-west is hard. You can't bike or walk it unless fit. The Valleys have a lot of ill old people.
It takes 3 hours 40 minutes to drive Llandudno to Cardiff and 4 hours 11 minutes by train
London is as near, and it maybe answers the question why those of us in North Wales have closer ties to Cheshire, Manchester and Liverpool than Wales's capital city
It’s not good news that the Russian economy is growing faster than any G7 nation
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession
Is it a "fact"?
The data from China and Russia can't be trusted even at the best of times, why would you trust it now?
This comes from the World Bank, not Russia. Unless they’re being paid by Putin I’m not sure why they’d be shilling for him with dodgy stats
They don't need to be paid to be shilling for him, where do you think they get their own data from?
They repeat the data they're provided, they don't create it themselves.
Trump has to go for it this time. His last shot. He has to go all in.
Even though he knows, and all those around him, and all those big donors he’s asking for money knows, he’s going to lose, probably badly on both PV and college.
It’s not good news that the Russian economy is growing faster than any G7 nation
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession
Is it a "fact"?
The data from China and Russia can't be trusted even at the best of times, why would you trust it now?
This comes from the World Bank, not Russia. Unless they’re being paid by Putin I’m not sure why they’d be shilling for him with dodgy stats
They don't need to be paid to be shilling for him, where do you think they get their own data from?
They repeat the data they're provided, they don't create it themselves.
Last night two teenagers were sentenced to life imprisonment for murdering someone simply because she was a woman with a penis.
Thought I would mention it because those most enthusiastically posting about women with penises on this board, haven't got round to mentioning it themselves.
They didn’t murder her “simply because she was a woman with a penis”. Her death was a horrific act by two disgusting people who wanted to kill someone, anyone and their tragic victim’s transgender identity was an additional - secondary according to the judge who actually sat through all the evidence - factor.
It’s pretty grim of you to use this as some sort of point scoring post. Hope you feel virtuous now.
From the judge's sentencing statement:
Your messages about Brianna were transphobic. You consistently referred to her in a way that was dehumanising, calling her “it”. You also described her as a “femboy thing”. When discussing killing Brianna, you agreed with Scarlett that she would be the easiest victim and said “and I want to see if it will scream like a man or a girl.” After the failed attempt on 28 January and in answer to Scarlett expressing her desire to see Brianna suffering, you said “Really all I wanted is to see what size dick it had”. Because Scarlett is an unreliable witness, I will not use her evidence that you “had a problem with” gay and transgender people against you. Nor will I dwell on the unpleasant messages about someone being gay and what you might do to them. But in your messages about Brianna, you undoubtedly displayed hostility towards her based on her transgender identity.
Yes I am making a free speech point. The hatred towards trans people that these two fed off is real. I don't think the hatred is due to trans people being over enthusiastic in claiming their rights. Free speech enables people to say what they want. It also allows them not to say what they probably should.
They just wanted to kill someone. Who exactly they killed was almost irrelevant.
Yes and no. They wanted to kill someone; it was just that their proposed targets were all people who were, in their eyes, marginalised. In the same way that if they had wanted to just beat someone up, the person they would have chosen would have been similarly 'other' in their eyes. The person they chose to kill was trans; and the way they spoke about her makes it fairly clear that the act was both homophobic *and* transphobic.
That seems fairly open-and-shut to me.
Brianna was targeted for murder, and she was targeted because she was trans.
Great though that the principle of edge cases within a specific context can’t be used to label a whole bunch of people is now accepted. It is, right?
What do you mean?
I mean that the people who use eg Karen White as a poster child for a general trans assault on the safety of women now seem keen to say that these two murderers are totally unconnected to a wider GC movement which doesn’t have the teeniest anti trans bone in its body, oh no, definitely not.
Those saying it had nothing to do with motive seem to disagree with the judge. The evidence is pretty clear.
..Jenkinson, whose mother is a secondary school teacher, told Ratcliffe she had become “obsessed” with Brianna, and she soon put her on a list of children the teenagers wanted to kill. The others were four boys they disliked: one Ratcliffe thought was a “nonce”, another the boy considered a love rival, and two who had been mean to Jenkinson’s boyfriend...
Everyone is correct.
It was part of the motive, but not the entire motive.
These murderers are vile and had Brianna not been there, they'd have murdered someone else instead.
The murderers did not become murderers because Brianna was trans. Brianna was murdered because she was trans.
While I broadly agree with you and applaud your summary, it’s hard to prove a counterfactual. We don’t know that they would have gone through with it had Brianna not been there.
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?
I shall get back to you!
By car or on foot?
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
Those were just examples FYI. It's a pretty pervasive trend across Wales.
But Wales is pervasively hilly.
Valleys tend to be slopy. It comes with the territory. If you slap your open palm into wet concrete, the result looks like how the Valleys spread out from Cardiff. Travel north-south is easy, east-west is hard. You can't bike or walk it unless fit. The Valleys have a lot of ill old people.
I'll see if I can match the data on heath status with commute method and distance.
The interesting question is whether Wales will see the same dramatic fall in road casualties that Edinburgh did after 20mph, and whether a palpably safer urban landscape will see walking rates increase to match those in England as a result.
Good looks genetics. Could have done without this one, parental guilt-wise. We know how well off we are affects how our children get on. ‘The intergenerational elasticity of income is above zero’, as economists say, or ‘rich parents mean richer kids’, as the rest of us would put it. But it’s not just our income that affects how our kids get on. New research, using data from both the US and China, shows hotter parents lead to richer kids. One standard deviation increase in parental looks drives an extra $2,300 per year in the next generation’s income. This happens via two mechanisms, both based on the sad reality that better looks translates into higher incomes. First, better looking parents earn more, which tends to generally raise kids’ incomes (the old story). Second, more attractive parents tend to produce more attractive offspring. The authors calculate “if parents’ looks are ten percentage-points above average, their child’s looks will be four percentage-points above average”. Sorry kids.
It’s not good news that the Russian economy is growing faster than any G7 nation
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession
Nobody knows how well the Russian economy is doing because they aren't providing much information and I wouldn't much trust the figures they are providing. We do know that the current interest rate is 16% presumably to stop the value of the Rouble collapsing?
The key point is the western economy has shown it can do without Russia. Tightening up some sanctions would help particularly in relation to the stans. And Russian gas sales are not surging. Their entire infrastructure is set up to export to Europe. They have a 10 year project to build a new pipeline to China but the CCP isn't that fussed.
Trump has to go for it this time. His last shot. He has to go all in.
Even though he knows, and all those around him, and all those big donors he’s asking for money knows, he’s going to lose, probably badly on both PV and college.
You and I know this but I don't think he or Team MAGA do.
It’s not good news that the Russian economy is growing faster than any G7 nation
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession
Is it a "fact"?
The data from China and Russia can't be trusted even at the best of times, why would you trust it now?
This comes from the World Bank, not Russia. Unless they’re being paid by Putin I’m not sure why they’d be shilling for him with dodgy stats
They don't need to be paid to be shilling for him, where do you think they get their own data from?
They repeat the data they're provided, they don't create it themselves.
And Reuters
And the IMF
As has been made clear previously the IMF relies overwhelmingly on figures provided by its member states. I don't think the Russian ones are worth much.
It’s not good news that the Russian economy is growing faster than any G7 nation
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession
Is it a "fact"?
The data from China and Russia can't be trusted even at the best of times, why would you trust it now?
This comes from the World Bank, not Russia. Unless they’re being paid by Putin I’m not sure why they’d be shilling for him with dodgy stats
They don't need to be paid to be shilling for him, where do you think they get their own data from?
They repeat the data they're provided, they don't create it themselves.
It might be instructive to remember that, back in the Soviet era, we were often reassured that everything in Commie Paradise was perfect, the economy strong and the people happy.
Of course, Brezhnev et al were not queuing for potatoes or turnips as they quaffed their way through caviar and champagne in the Kremlin dining room...
It’s not good news that the Russian economy is growing faster than any G7 nation
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession
Nobody knows how well the Russian economy is doing because they aren't providing much information and I wouldn't much trust the figures they are providing. We do know that the current interest rate is 16% presumably to stop the value of the Rouble collapsing?
The key point is the western economy has shown it can do without Russia. Tightening up some sanctions would help particularly in relation to the stans. And Russian gas sales are not surging. Their entire infrastructure is set up to export to Europe. They have a 10 year project to build a new pipeline to China but the CCP isn't that fussed.
Yes, their energy sales are surging
The FT, again
“In 2023, Russia’s energy revenues reached Rbs8.8tn — a decline of about a quarter from the record-breaking result in 2022 but above the average for the past ten years.”
The severe shortage of shells is probably the single most urgent problem for Ukraine.
Artillery shortages and delays in Western military assistance may compel Ukrainian forces to make difficult decisions about allocating resources across various front sectors, ISW assesses. https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1753746403195551797
It’s not good news that the Russian economy is growing faster than any G7 nation
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession
Is it a "fact"?
The data from China and Russia can't be trusted even at the best of times, why would you trust it now?
This comes from the World Bank, not Russia. Unless they’re being paid by Putin I’m not sure why they’d be shilling for him with dodgy stats
They don't need to be paid to be shilling for him, where do you think they get their own data from?
They repeat the data they're provided, they don't create it themselves.
And Reuters
And the IMF
As has been made clear previously the IMF relies overwhelmingly on figures provided by its member states. I don't think the Russian ones are worth much.
Reuters polled 15 analysts and economists. Are they all lying, or stupid?
It’s not good news that the Russian economy is growing faster than any G7 nation
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession
Nobody knows how well the Russian economy is doing because they aren't providing much information and I wouldn't much trust the figures they are providing. We do know that the current interest rate is 16% presumably to stop the value of the Rouble collapsing?
The key point is the western economy has shown it can do without Russia. Tightening up some sanctions would help particularly in relation to the stans. And Russian gas sales are not surging. Their entire infrastructure is set up to export to Europe. They have a 10 year project to build a new pipeline to China but the CCP isn't that fussed.
Yes, their energy sales are surging
The FT, again
“In 2023, Russia’s energy revenues reached Rbs8.8tn — a decline of about a quarter from the record-breaking result in 2022 but above the average for the past ten years.”
In a graph:
That chart looks like total revenues of 8.8trn? I accept that the devalued Rouble makes the revenues worth more in their own currency.
I wonder if Russia's long term downtrodden proletariat and mostly (now) willing to go along with Putin's rulership is a long term legacy of Mongol conquest, as opposed to the gradual growth of feudalism and then replacement of vassal status with citizenship for ordinary people. And even vassals had some rights their lords owed them.
Meanwhile, Russian debt as a percentage of GDP is 21%
The UK is 101%
France is 111%
The USA is 122%
The west is fundamentally weaker vis a vis Russia than it has been for many years. And the Russians - if they can find someone to lend to them - have an awful lot of room to borrow money, room the West does not possess
Trump has to go for it this time. His last shot. He has to go all in.
Even though he knows, and all those around him, and all those big donors he’s asking for money knows, he’s going to lose, probably badly on both PV and college.
You and I know this but I don't think he or Team MAGA do.
I think they do. Deep inside, and away from the frantic fuckmule of campaigning life.
McKinley thrashed the energetic Bryan in 1896, despite campaigning no further than his garden gate. Charging around the place addressing adoring fans might not amount to much advantage, in the final analysis
The rear-guard action vs Reform probably more important for the Tories at this point.
We know though at most only a third of the Reform vote would return to the Conservatives. About one sixth would vote Labour and half would stay at home if Reform decided not to fight the next election.
That trims (not slashes) the Labour lead by a (massive) two points.
I suspect Reform are strongest where the Conservatives are strongest so their vote piling up in seats with large Conservative majorities may favour Labour but not much. We saw a hint of this in the Clacton constituency polling.
Now for two reasons I say above 3% current Reform vote is utterly soft, the whole lot melts down to 3% and will be back on the Tory Total just weeks after the Election pizza oven is fired up. Firstly, Reform must have averaged no more than 3% the whole of 2022! Yes, Double digit Reform totals don’t even go back two years this time around. Anything above 3% doesn’t even need targeting by Sunak’s Tories, they are already in Conservative pocket imo, where they were just a mere year and half ago.
Secondly, Farage is wildly popular amongst these folk and was leader in 2019, they had been turning out in numbers at actual elections for him and big V to the Tories poll after poll for many years, and what were the polling sub question answers of these voters during that time, 2018 2019? I’ll make it easy for you, i’ll give you a multiple choice of 2 answers, and one of these actually happened.
“Well, a third of us are going back to the Tories for a general election, after all to throw away a vote on minor party who would get no seats is pointless, though a lot of us are actually up for doing that pointless thing. A sixth of us are convinced they are voting Labour.”
Or
“Well, nearly all of us are going to strip Nigel naked, tie him to a lampost, troll him all over with blue paint, and go and vote Conservative.”
If the Pro Farage vehicle couldn’t make voters stick with them for 2019 general election, there’s even less chance of holding em this time, in my opinion.
The two Plaid Cymru gains in that Redfield & Wilton poll have additional support from the recent consituency polling by Survation (on behalf of Plaid Cymru).
It’s not good news that the Russian economy is growing faster than any G7 nation
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession
Nobody knows how well the Russian economy is doing because they aren't providing much information and I wouldn't much trust the figures they are providing. We do know that the current interest rate is 16% presumably to stop the value of the Rouble collapsing?
The key point is the western economy has shown it can do without Russia. Tightening up some sanctions would help particularly in relation to the stans. And Russian gas sales are not surging. Their entire infrastructure is set up to export to Europe. They have a 10 year project to build a new pipeline to China but the CCP isn't that fussed.
Yes, their energy sales are surging
The FT, again
“In 2023, Russia’s energy revenues reached Rbs8.8tn — a decline of about a quarter from the record-breaking result in 2022 but above the average for the past ten years.”
In a graph:
That chart looks like total revenues of 8.8trn? I accept that the devalued Rouble makes the revenues worth more in their own currency.
I don’t believe anyone serious disputes that Russia is still making tons of money from energy, whatever you wish to believe
“Russian oil price cap has largely failed, new report finds
An analysis shared with POLITICO reveals that sanctions cheats, gaping loopholes and widespread circumvention mean oil revenues are still filling Moscow’s war chest.”
Mr. Leon, are those figures genuine? And, if genuine, is there an omission?
China's official debt is not the complete story because it omits regional/provincial borrowing, which is significant. I have fuzzy memories of watching a video about regions in Russia being led by Putinist governors, so it's possible regional borrowing is a factor there as well.
F1: I've backed McLaren not to win a race in 2024, as a 5.5 special on Ladbrokes.
I'd like them to be competing for wins. And it is a credible possibility. But the dominance of Red Bull last year was quite something. Mercedes and Ferrari are both going for entirely new approaches and if either one get it right that'll make life harder for McLaren, who I think have won a single race in the last decade.
Mr. Leon, are those figures genuine? And, if genuine, is there an omission?
China's official debt is not the complete story because it omits regional/provincial borrowing, which is significant. I have fuzzy memories of watching a video about regions in Russia being led by Putinist governors, so it's possible regional borrowing is a factor there as well.
There are ways and means of monitoring GDP stats which can’t easily be fooled. Economic activity. Transport. Energy use. Imports
I believe these figures are probably in the ballpark; I don’t believe the IMF, World Bank and Reuters are all credulous idiots
FWIW Chinese stats might be more suspect. 5% growth? Really? Hmmm
The rear-guard action vs Reform probably more important for the Tories at this point.
We know though at most only a third of the Reform vote would return to the Conservatives. About one sixth would vote Labour and half would stay at home if Reform decided not to fight the next election.
That trims (not slashes) the Labour lead by a (massive) two points.
I suspect Reform are strongest where the Conservatives are strongest so their vote piling up in seats with large Conservative majorities may favour Labour but not much. We saw a hint of this in the Clacton constituency polling.
Now for two reasons I say above 3% current Reform vote is utterly soft, the whole lot melts down to 3% and will be back on the Tory Total just weeks after the Election pizza oven is fired up. Firstly, Reform must have averaged no more than 3% the whole of 2022! Yes, Double digit Reform totals don’t even go back two years this time around. Anything above 3% doesn’t even need targeting by Sunak’s Tories, they are already in Conservative pocket imo, where they were just a mere year and half ago.
Secondly, Farage is wildly popular amongst these folk and was leader in 2019, they had been turning out in numbers at actual elections for him and big V to the Tories poll after poll for many years, and what were the polling sub question answers of these voters during that time, 2018 2019? I’ll make it easy for you, i’ll give you a multiple choice of 2 answers, and one of these actually happened.
“Well, a third of us are going back to the Tories for a general election, after all to throw away a vote on minor party who would get no seats is pointless, though a lot of us are actually up for doing that pointless thing. A sixth of us are convinced they are voting Labour.”
Or
“Well, nearly all of us are going to strip Nigel naked, tie him to a lampost, troll him all over with blue paint, and go and vote Conservative.”
If the Pro Farage vehicle couldn’t make voters stick with them for 2019 general election, there’s even less chance of holding em this time, in my opinion.
The Election is May 2nd. And at very least three quarters of those Reform in all the polls now are turning out for the Conservatives at the GE, so that easily takes Tory PV and campaign polling out of the 20’s up into the thirties. Of course this means those “reality” swingback pollsters will have a terribly exciting gap in single digits, yet that disguises how tactical voting screws the Tories on election day. All these things we at last do know from computing the evidence in our heads, these are facts - the Tory decision for May 2nd is shown to us through the platform they have chosen to fight on, as patently clear from their synchronised oft repeated slogans. The fact the LLG is still 55+ at this stage, and Conservative Party and Sunak’s satisfaction ratings in the bin, proves Labour will get a majority, but the size of Labours majority we still don’t have enough to go on, except it is anything from 10 to 110. As a gut feel, round about 45.
Not this one. It’s the general election after this one, 4 years or so time, I’m sure the Tories will really struggle for voters in.
The rear-guard action vs Reform probably more important for the Tories at this point.
We know though at most only a third of the Reform vote would return to the Conservatives. About one sixth would vote Labour and half would stay at home if Reform decided not to fight the next election.
That trims (not slashes) the Labour lead by a (massive) two points.
I suspect Reform are strongest where the Conservatives are strongest so their vote piling up in seats with large Conservative majorities may favour Labour but not much. We saw a hint of this in the Clacton constituency polling.
Now for two reasons I say above 3% current Reform vote is utterly soft, the whole lot melts down to 3% and will be back on the Tory Total just weeks after the Election pizza oven is fired up. Firstly, Reform must have averaged no more than 3% the whole of 2022! Yes, Double digit Reform totals don’t even go back two years this time around. Anything above 3% doesn’t even need targeting by Sunak’s Tories, they are already in Conservative pocket imo, where they were just a mere year and half ago.
Secondly, Farage is wildly popular amongst these folk and was leader in 2019, they had been turning out in numbers at actual elections for him and big V to the Tories poll after poll for many years, and what were the polling sub question answers of these voters during that time, 2018 2019? I’ll make it easy for you, i’ll give you a multiple choice of 2 answers, and one of these actually happened.
“Well, a third of us are going back to the Tories for a general election, after all to throw away a vote on minor party who would get no seats is pointless, though a lot of us are actually up for doing that pointless thing. A sixth of us are convinced they are voting Labour.”
Or
“Well, nearly all of us are going to strip Nigel naked, tie him to a lampost, troll him all over with blue paint, and go and vote Conservative.”
If the Pro Farage vehicle couldn’t make voters stick with them for 2019 general election, there’s even less chance of holding em this time, in my opinion.
The Election is May 2nd. And at very least three quarters of those Reform in all the polls now are turning out for the Conservatives at the GE, so that easily takes Tory PV and campaign polling out of the 20’s up into the thirties. Of course this means those “reality” swingback pollsters will have a terribly exciting gap in single digits, yet that disguises how tactical voting screws the Tories on election day. All these things we at last do know from computing the evidence in our heads, these are facts - the Tory decision for May 2nd is shown to us through the platform they have chosen to fight on, as patently clear from their synchronised oft repeated slogans. The fact the LLG is still 55+ at this stage, and Conservative Party and Sunak’s satisfaction ratings in the bin, proves Labour will get a majority, but the size of Labours majority we still don’t have enough to go on, except it is anything from 10 to 110. As a gut feel, round about 45.
Not this one. It’s the general election after this one, 4 years or so time, I’m sure the Tories will really struggle for voters in.
Farage should maybe look for a seat in Nottingham
“A video showing youths apparently wielding machetes in broad daylight in Nottingham city centre has emerged on social media.
Last night two teenagers were sentenced to life imprisonment for murdering someone simply because she was a woman with a penis.
Thought I would mention it because those most enthusiastically posting about women with penises on this board, haven't got round to mentioning it themselves.
They didn’t murder her “simply because she was a woman with a penis”. Her death was a horrific act by two disgusting people who wanted to kill someone, anyone and their tragic victim’s transgender identity was an additional - secondary according to the judge who actually sat through all the evidence - factor.
It’s pretty grim of you to use this as some sort of point scoring post. Hope you feel virtuous now.
From the judge's sentencing statement:
Your messages about Brianna were transphobic. You consistently referred to her in a way that was dehumanising, calling her “it”. You also described her as a “femboy thing”. When discussing killing Brianna, you agreed with Scarlett that she would be the easiest victim and said “and I want to see if it will scream like a man or a girl.” After the failed attempt on 28 January and in answer to Scarlett expressing her desire to see Brianna suffering, you said “Really all I wanted is to see what size dick it had”. Because Scarlett is an unreliable witness, I will not use her evidence that you “had a problem with” gay and transgender people against you. Nor will I dwell on the unpleasant messages about someone being gay and what you might do to them. But in your messages about Brianna, you undoubtedly displayed hostility towards her based on her transgender identity.
Yes I am making a free speech point. The hatred towards trans people that these two fed off is real. I don't think the hatred is due to trans people being over enthusiastic in claiming their rights. Free speech enables people to say what they want. It also allows them not to say what they probably should.
I'm sure there is hatred. I wouldn't want to underplay it and it has always been there for trans people. But most of the hatred on this issue in recent years has, I'm afraid, been coming from those who want to prioritise gender based over sex based rights. Look at the abuse directed at all those who have questioned the trans affirming narrative. Have many people taking a very pro trans position on this debate faced ostracism, abuse and threats?
I don't think your assertion is correct, but my main point is a plea for people to be more careful in what they say and be more empathetic and understand there are some very vulnerable people who get hurt. Avoid comments like "women with penises" for instance
I also disagree with @Cyclefree on this issue but she did everything I am suggesting on the previous thread.
Last night two teenagers were sentenced to life imprisonment for murdering someone simply because she was a woman with a penis.
Thought I would mention it because those most enthusiastically posting about women with penises on this board, haven't got round to mentioning it themselves.
They didn’t murder her “simply because she was a woman with a penis”. Her death was a horrific act by two disgusting people who wanted to kill someone, anyone and their tragic victim’s transgender identity was an additional - secondary according to the judge who actually sat through all the evidence - factor.
It’s pretty grim of you to use this as some sort of point scoring post. Hope you feel virtuous now.
From the judge's sentencing statement:
Your messages about Brianna were transphobic. You consistently referred to her in a way that was dehumanising, calling her “it”. You also described her as a “femboy thing”. When discussing killing Brianna, you agreed with Scarlett that she would be the easiest victim and said “and I want to see if it will scream like a man or a girl.” After the failed attempt on 28 January and in answer to Scarlett expressing her desire to see Brianna suffering, you said “Really all I wanted is to see what size dick it had”. Because Scarlett is an unreliable witness, I will not use her evidence that you “had a problem with” gay and transgender people against you. Nor will I dwell on the unpleasant messages about someone being gay and what you might do to them. But in your messages about Brianna, you undoubtedly displayed hostility towards her based on her transgender identity.
Yes I am making a free speech point. The hatred towards trans people that these two fed off is real. I don't think the hatred is due to trans people being over enthusiastic in claiming their rights. Free speech enables people to say what they want. It also allows them not to say what they probably should.
I'm sure there is hatred. I wouldn't want to underplay it and it has always been there for trans people. But most of the hatred on this issue in recent years has, I'm afraid, been coming from those who want to prioritise gender based over sex based rights. Look at the abuse directed at all those who have questioned the trans affirming narrative. Have many people taking a very pro trans position on this debate faced ostracism, abuse and threats?
I don't think your assertion is correct, but my main point is a plea for people to be more careful in what they say and be more empathetic and understand there are some very vulnerable people who get hurt. Avoid comments like "women with penises" for instance
I also disagree with @Cyclefree on this issue but she did everything I am suggesting on the previous thread.
“Ukraine faces two acute issues right now: a lack of ammunition and a lack of infantry. The longer these two issues are not properly addressed, the more Ukraine's disadvantage will grow.”
We can give them all the shells in the world, but if they don’t have troops to fire them…
This is kind of chicken-and-egg because they don't have a lot of young people in the first place, so they're reluctant to mobilize them if they're not reasonably confident they'll have shells for them to fire.
Of course you can. You just need to condition your audience to ignore hypocrisy and blatant lies first because you are really really on their side.
The headline quote is from someone on his side.
That doesn't make it true. The "rules" don't apply to him and he has engineered that situation. Of course it all may come crashing down over the next year, lets hope so, but there is no guarantee it will and he has broken endless ones over the last seven years and manipulated them to his advantage with his audience. He will do so again here is my very confident prediction.
A total personal meltdown or a bar from standing are the main risks from his side, not whatever nonsensical, incoherent and hypocritical positions he takes.
Trump has to go for it this time. His last shot. He has to go all in.
Even though he knows, and all those around him, and all those big donors he’s asking for money knows, he’s going to lose, probably badly on both PV and college.
You and I know this but I don't think he or Team MAGA do.
I think they do. Deep inside, and away from the frantic fuckmule of campaigning life.
McKinley thrashed the energetic Bryan in 1896, despite campaigning no further than his garden gate. Charging around the place addressing adoring fans might not amount to much advantage, in the final analysis
Well that's what I think. Fairly big loss for Trump. Not as close as 2020.
The rear-guard action vs Reform probably more important for the Tories at this point.
We know though at most only a third of the Reform vote would return to the Conservatives. About one sixth would vote Labour and half would stay at home if Reform decided not to fight the next election.
That trims (not slashes) the Labour lead by a (massive) two points.
I suspect Reform are strongest where the Conservatives are strongest so their vote piling up in seats with large Conservative majorities may favour Labour but not much. We saw a hint of this in the Clacton constituency polling.
Now for two reasons I say above 3% current Reform vote is utterly soft, the whole lot melts down to 3% and will be back on the Tory Total just weeks after the Election pizza oven is fired up. Firstly, Reform must have averaged no more than 3% the whole of 2022! Yes, Double digit Reform totals don’t even go back two years this time around. Anything above 3% doesn’t even need targeting by Sunak’s Tories, they are already in Conservative pocket imo, where they were just a mere year and half ago.
Secondly, Farage is wildly popular amongst these folk and was leader in 2019, they had been turning out in numbers at actual elections for him and big V to the Tories poll after poll for many years, and what were the polling sub question answers of these voters during that time, 2018 2019? I’ll make it easy for you, i’ll give you a multiple choice of 2 answers, and one of these actually happened.
“Well, a third of us are going back to the Tories for a general election, after all to throw away a vote on minor party who would get no seats is pointless, though a lot of us are actually up for doing that pointless thing. A sixth of us are convinced they are voting Labour.”
Or
“Well, nearly all of us are going to strip Nigel naked, tie him to a lampost, troll him all over with blue paint, and go and vote Conservative.”
If the Pro Farage vehicle couldn’t make voters stick with them for 2019 general election, there’s even less chance of holding em this time, in my opinion.
The Election is May 2nd. And at very least three quarters of those Reform in all the polls now are turning out for the Conservatives at the GE, so that easily takes Tory PV and campaign polling out of the 20’s up into the thirties. Of course this means those “reality” swingback pollsters will have a terribly exciting gap in single digits, yet that disguises how tactical voting screws the Tories on election day. All these things we at last do know from computing the evidence in our heads, these are facts - the Tory decision for May 2nd is shown to us through the platform they have chosen to fight on, as patently clear from their synchronised oft repeated slogans. The fact the LLG is still 55+ at this stage, and Conservative Party and Sunak’s satisfaction ratings in the bin, proves Labour will get a majority, but the size of Labours majority we still don’t have enough to go on, except it is anything from 10 to 110. As a gut feel, round about 45.
Not this one. It’s the general election after this one, 4 years or so time, I’m sure the Tories will really struggle for voters in.
Farage should maybe look for a seat in Nottingham
“A video showing youths apparently wielding machetes in broad daylight in Nottingham city centre has emerged on social media.
Labour 44 (+1) Conservative 29 (+2) Lib Dems 11 (+1) Reform 8 (-3) Green 6 (+1) Other 3 (-1)
(Polling 30-31 January 2024)
Sunil says: 'Dirty, sleazy RefUK on the slide'
It's only one poll of course but it does rather support Stodge's observation that if Reform doesn't stand at the GE, its vote doesn't break wholly in favour of the Conservatives.
Trump has to go for it this time. His last shot. He has to go all in.
Even though he knows, and all those around him, and all those big donors he’s asking for money knows, he’s going to lose, probably badly on both PV and college.
You and I know this but I don't think he or Team MAGA do.
I think they do. Deep inside, and away from the frantic fuckmule of campaigning life.
McKinley thrashed the energetic Bryan in 1896, despite campaigning no further than his garden gate. Charging around the place addressing adoring fans might not amount to much advantage, in the final analysis
Well that's what I think. Fairly big loss for Trump. Not as close as 2020.
Same here - improving economy + incumbancy advantage + Trump's court troubles = solid win for Biden.
As usual there are long-term trends (= socio-economics) and short-term fluctuations (= politics) to weigh up. The NE Wales red wall has been slowly trending Tory for decades as the mines and steelworks are replaced by un-unionised sunrise tech industries and the brick shit-houses where the miners used to live are surrounded by sunrise owner-occupied Barrett homes. The Tory vote may stay at home but I doubt if the Labour vote will increase much.
I'd have a fiver on the Tories holding Wrexham. The Independent-Tory 'city' council has ridden its luck in recent years and Sarah Atherton is locally popular. And evidence of the Wales Labour Government's incompetence is all too prominent - from the disastrous failure to repair local roads and bridges to the unstoppable mass-murderer Betsi Cadwalladr.
There is zero chance they will hold Wrexham - their only chances are in Powys but with Montgomeryshire taking in lots of Labour voters from Glyndwr, and Brecon taking in Labour voters from Cwm Tawe - the only way Conservatives hang on is if there is a modest Lib Dem recovery to split the vote.
And they are likely to come third in Ynys Môn (Plaid gain) and Caerfyrddin (50/50 whether Plaid or Labour win)
I really hate articles like this .A few uncredited anecdotes designed to make you loathe her as much as the journalist does. There's no insight no humour no style nothing but a few kicks in the groin for someone who has actually left a mark.
As usual there are long-term trends (= socio-economics) and short-term fluctuations (= politics) to weigh up. The NE Wales red wall has been slowly trending Tory for decades as the mines and steelworks are replaced by un-unionised sunrise tech industries and the brick shit-houses where the miners used to live are surrounded by sunrise owner-occupied Barrett homes. The Tory vote may stay at home but I doubt if the Labour vote will increase much.
I'd have a fiver on the Tories holding Wrexham. The Independent-Tory 'city' council has ridden its luck in recent years and Sarah Atherton is locally popular. And evidence of the Wales Labour Government's incompetence is all too prominent - from the disastrous failure to repair local roads and bridges to the unstoppable mass-murderer Betsi Cadwalladr.
There is zero chance they will hold Wrexham - their only chances are in Powys but with Montgomeryshire taking in lots of Labour voters from Glyndwr, and Brecon taking in Labour voters from Cwm Tawe - the only way Conservatives hang on is if there is a modest Lib Dem recovery to split the vote.
And they are likely to come third in Ynys Môn (Plaid gain) and Caerfyrddin (50/50 whether Plaid or Labour win)
Another one who thinks they will lose Monmouthshire. Why?
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?
I shall get back to you!
By car or on foot?
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
You have clearly never been to Bridgend. Includes the highest road in Wales (The Bwlch) - and even the flattish bits are very bumpy and definitely not cycle friendly.
Brianna Ghey was in part targeted because of being trans. There is no point denying this given that this is the evidence which has come out at trial and which has been mentioned in the judge's summing up. We can only deal with the vulnerability of children and those who hate them for particular characteristics if we are honest about the reasons why awful crimes happen.
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?
I shall get back to you!
By car or on foot?
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
You have clearly never been to Bridgend. Includes the highest road in Wales (The Bwlch) - and even the flattish bits are very bumpy and definitely not cycle friendly.
That isn't the highest road in Wales, in fact it's about fifth although I think it's the highest A-road. I've actually driven over it several times but I didn't realise it was in Bridgend PA. I was thinking of the town itself which as I recall is if not flat certainly less hilly than Merthyr.
I really hate articles like this .A few uncredited anecdotes designed to make you loathe her as much as the journalist does. There's no insight no humour no style nothing but a few kicks in the groin for someone who has actually left a mark.
Yep, she’s certainly left a mark: fucked Scottish healthcare, left chaos in Scottish police, presided over record Scottish drug deaths, screwed Scottish education so they plummet down the PISA rankings
On top of that she’s left the SNP led by an idiot, she’s had the police dig up her garden because corruption, she’s been arrested - with her husband - for the same, she’s seen the SNP nosedive in the polls, and as a final crowning achievement, Indy now seems further away than ever, indeed there may never be a second vote
Trump has to go for it this time. His last shot. He has to go all in.
Even though he knows, and all those around him, and all those big donors he’s asking for money knows, he’s going to lose, probably badly on both PV and college.
You and I know this but I don't think he or Team MAGA do.
I think they do. Deep inside, and away from the frantic fuckmule of campaigning life.
McKinley thrashed the energetic Bryan in 1896, despite campaigning no further than his garden gate. Charging around the place addressing adoring fans might not amount to much advantage, in the final analysis
Well that's what I think. Fairly big loss for Trump. Not as close as 2020.
Same here - improving economy + incumbancy advantage + Trump's court troubles = solid win for Biden.
(Wishcasting possibly - time will tell)
Yes indeed. We could certainly be wrong. It's a minority view after all. Although on that wishcasting point I'm fairly sure I'm not. The bias I have to be wary of in my betting is my tendency to overstate the chances of something I dread (or understate the chances of something I really want). The opposite of wishcasting.
This is an incredible story. A woman expresses perfectly legal “gender critical” views on Twitter
She is also a fan of the Toon
She is then investigated by some creepy “agency” within the Premier League, they compile an entire dossier on her life and doings, right down to where she walks her dog, the file is passed to NUFC - who ban her from the ground for two seasons
I'm always suspicious of this kind of story. Woman says she was banned due to this one legal comment, it might turn out the club says she's been banned due to other reasons entirely. There's normally more to it.
Perhaps, yes
But the Free Speech Union is quite diligent - they take on and WIN big legal cases (unlike Jo “kimono” Maugham)
Indeed. The question is the cases they take on
* Lawrence Fox calls somebody a paedo: FSU is silent * Mad BBC lady rants on about Jews: FSU is silent * Toon lady says woman can't have penis: FSU IS GO! ALL FSU CRAFT LAUNCH * NOW!
#PBFreeSpeech
May be they recognize that there is a limit to free speech and that ranting about Jews or calling someone a paedo isn’t on?
That was the point I was making. The United Kingdom does not have free speech, has never had free speech, does not want free speech, and will crawl for miles over broken glass to prevent free speech from existing. The only question is about where do you draw the line, and the line is not drawn by rationality nor logic but on a case-by-case basis according to the whims and fancies of the rich at any given moment. My disillusionment with the UK has many fathers, but one of them was when Toby Young said in the Express that some trans person should not say something because it was ideology. The prospect of a free speech defender repressing speech because he disdained it was one of those brain-snapping moments.
This is why I invented the #PBFreeSpeech tag: so I could keep track of it.
There are limits to speech in every single society that there has ever been or will be.
Someone with a potty mouth can come up with something the most ardent free speech activist will want banned.
So why do we continually pretend it exists and laud ourselves for it? Why does the FSU call itself the "Free Speech Union" instead of the "Rich People Preferred Speech Enforcement Division" (RPPSED). Remember how people used to quote the phrase "I disagree with what you say but I will defend to the death your right to say it". Have you noticed how they don't do that now and haven't for some time?
PB has developed a side-hustle: everybody somebody says something it convenes an emergency Committee Of Public Safety, discusses the matter in the most shallow terms (John Stuart Mill! Hate Speech! Free Speech! Kimono!), pronounces and moves on.
#PBFreeSpeech
Everyone ever has limits to speech.
Free Speech (TM) always meant “Relatively free speech, with penalties and prohibitions for only the most egregious statements”
There is a definite uptick in “it offends me therefore it is hate speech”
There is an uptick the other way - “I am a nice person. Therefore {insert crap about the Jews that Edward I would have said was Fucked In The Head} isn’t racism”
It’s almost as if the real world needs balance, moderate policies and lots of exceptions judged on a case by case basis.
A good answer, and better than the others ("incoherent" my arse).
But it would be better if the case-by-case basis was underpinned by principle instead of "I like/dislike this therefore". The US system is better than UKs, with the line more biased to freedom. In UK it is CurrentThingOfTheWealthy. The Fox case shocked me: if a spoilt wealthy talentless fop can't speak without a quarter mill in damages, where does that leave the diligent poors?
In the 'free speech' discussion, nothing good comes unless you distinguish the terms.
There are two big areas: (1) What speech/expression/publication is against the law (civil and/or criminal); and (2) What are the allowable consequences that Y can deliver upon X because X has said/expressed/published something.
There is actually a fair degree of agreement about (1). Disallowed are: Shouting 'fire' in a crowded place without reason; handing out pornography to 6 year olds; untrue defamations; etc etc.
As to (2) there is no prospect of agreement, because this will vary not only according to political taste, but also vary according to who holds the social power to include and exclude others.
Essentially (1) is about the rule of law; (2) is about politics, small and great and the exercise of power; over which agreement is no more likely than a football match where both sides are trying to score in the same goal.
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
Health reasons may be a factor. A lot of people there with complex health needs. Have you compared them to the poorer parts of Glasgow?
I shall get back to you!
By car or on foot?
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
You have clearly never been to Bridgend. Includes the highest road in Wales (The Bwlch) - and even the flattish bits are very bumpy and definitely not cycle friendly.
That isn't the highest road in Wales, in fact it's about fifth although I think it's the highest A-road. I've actually driven over it several times but I didn't realise it was in Bridgend PA. I was thinking of the town itself which as I recall is if not flat certainly less hilly than Merthyr.
You are right - highest A road.. But anyone travelling the M4 near Sarn will see that the area is not cycle friendly.
Incidentally @FF43 raised the Ghey case by saying that no-one had commented on it despite talking about trans issues. Not sure what point he is trying to make.
But it is not the only recent trans criminal court case which has passed unnoticed on here. The Andrew Miller case in Scotland has also been little remarked on here. It too is awful. It too raises difficult questions. The judge's sentencing remarks with details of the offences and Andrew Miller's response to his crimes are very disturbing. You can read them here - https://judiciary.scot/home/sentences-judgments/sentences-and-opinions/2023/10/18/hma-v-andrew-miller.
He wanted, reportedly, to retrain as a social worker, though it is hard to imagine anyone less suitable to perform such a role. Fortunately, his appeal against his long sentence was rejected. Good.
Trump has to go for it this time. His last shot. He has to go all in.
Even though he knows, and all those around him, and all those big donors he’s asking for money knows, he’s going to lose, probably badly on both PV and college.
You and I know this but I don't think he or Team MAGA do.
I think they do. Deep inside, and away from the frantic fuckmule of campaigning life.
McKinley thrashed the energetic Bryan in 1896, despite campaigning no further than his garden gate. Charging around the place addressing adoring fans might not amount to much advantage, in the final analysis
Well that's what I think. Fairly big loss for Trump. Not as close as 2020.
Same here - improving economy + incumbancy advantage + Trump's court troubles = solid win for Biden.
(Wishcasting possibly - time will tell)
Yes indeed. We could certainly be wrong. It's a minority view after all. Although on that wishcasting point I'm fairly sure I'm not. The bias I have to be wary of in my betting is my tendency to overstate the chances of something I dread (or understate the chances of something I really want). The opposite of wishcasting.
If it’s any reassurance I agree with you
And I am much less emotional about this than you. ie I don’t DREAD a Trump presidency, he wouldn’t end the world, I just think he’d be bad news at a vulnerable moment
The economy is coming good at just the right moment for Biden. Another year of solid growth, low inflation, high employment, should see him home
Two caveats
1. A black swan (of course). Another war? Maybe Iran? Could change everything
2. Immigration. The border is totally out of control, can Trump weaponise that?
As usual there are long-term trends (= socio-economics) and short-term fluctuations (= politics) to weigh up. The NE Wales red wall has been slowly trending Tory for decades as the mines and steelworks are replaced by un-unionised sunrise tech industries and the brick shit-houses where the miners used to live are surrounded by sunrise owner-occupied Barrett homes. The Tory vote may stay at home but I doubt if the Labour vote will increase much.
I'd have a fiver on the Tories holding Wrexham. The Independent-Tory 'city' council has ridden its luck in recent years and Sarah Atherton is locally popular. And evidence of the Wales Labour Government's incompetence is all too prominent - from the disastrous failure to repair local roads and bridges to the unstoppable mass-murderer Betsi Cadwalladr.
There is zero chance they will hold Wrexham - their only chances are in Powys but with Montgomeryshire taking in lots of Labour voters from Glyndwr, and Brecon taking in Labour voters from Cwm Tawe - the only way Conservatives hang on is if there is a modest Lib Dem recovery to split the vote.
And they are likely to come third in Ynys Môn (Plaid gain) and Caerfyrddin (50/50 whether Plaid or Labour win)
Another one who thinks they will lose Monmouthshire. Why?
Heading that way but addition of a few labour areas from Torfaen should seal it. Probably their third possibility of clinging on.
Isn’t that famously illegal? Under English common law, Police are specifically not allowed to persuade someone to break a law when they otherwise wouldn’t do it
Comments
But Russia, powerful as it is, probably cannot afford many more Avdiikas.
What David Cameron tried to do with the LibDems in 2011-2012 which is abolish the House of Lords in exchange for the LibDems voting to reduce the number of constituencies and redraw the boundaries in a way that was supposed to guarantee the Conservatives were going to get a majority
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plXNBUiX5bY
The approach of the west should be fine, Mr Putin. You want to stop the war. The Ukrainians are comfortable with continuing fighting. So what concessions are you going to make?
And the conversion to a war economy has acted as a Keynesian stimulus. Long term this probably cannot last, but it might easily last long enough for the Ukrainians to tire, and seek peace
Stubborn, unimaginative and utterly predictable despite knowing they face annihilation.
The evidence is pretty clear.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/02/brianna-ghey-murderers-named-sentenced-to-life-in-prison
..Sentencing, Mrs Justice Yip said: “You both took part in a brutal and planned murder which was sadistic in nature and where a secondary motive was hostility towards Brianna because of her transgender identity...
..Jenkinson, whose mother is a secondary school teacher, told Ratcliffe she had become “obsessed” with Brianna, and she soon put her on a list of children the teenagers wanted to kill. The others were four boys they disliked: one Ratcliffe thought was a “nonce”, another the boy considered a love rival, and two who had been mean to Jenkinson’s boyfriend...
But, these are not as rich nor lucrative markets for Russia and there's no such thing as a free lunch.
“Ukraine faces two acute issues right now: a lack of ammunition and a lack of infantry. The longer these two issues are not properly addressed, the more Ukraine's disadvantage will grow.”
https://x.com/ralee85/status/1753470321183646021?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
We can give them all the shells in the world, but if they don’t have troops to fire them…
“You can’t blame the president when policies go wrong, and then say he’s not responsible if things are going right.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/02/trump-and-his-allies-adjust-their-messaging-on-the-economy-as-it-steadily-improves-00139447
It was part of the motive, but not the entire motive.
These murderers are vile and had Brianna not been there, they'd have murdered someone else instead.
The murderers did not become murderers because Brianna was trans.
Brianna was murdered because she was trans.
However it is how Starmer uses his majority that will count and I understand Blair and his organisation are going to be very involved, which does raise the question will the left in labour be Starmer's own ERG
@HYUFD long since predicted the rise of the right and I fear he may well be proven correct, as the two items likely to feature over the next few yeas are immigration and the rush to net zero
We live in uncertain times and I do worry as grandparents what the future has in store for our grandchildren
I doubt that was on Putin’s wish list: make Poland a nuclear armed power
1) Russia has lost control of the western Black Sea and it's navy effectively neutered
2) The Ukrainian economy has survived, global food prices are stable and there's no threat of global starvation
3) Europe has coped without Russian gas as Putin has lost a large amount of revenue
4) We have not seen the kinds of attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure that we did last winter
5) Instead we are seeing attacks on Russia's critical infrastructure, in particular oil.
The Ukrainian counter offensive failed but not necessarily at an enormous cost. Putin continues with human meat waves for minimal gains. Trump is the big unknown.
I’m just providing balance for some of the Ukrainian Pom-pom waving on here. The attacks on the Russian navy are particularly notable (it makes me wonder if big navies are finished - why spend £7trn on an aircraft carrier which can be taken out with tuppeny drones?)
It’s the basic maths which is grim. Both sides are suffering hideous casualties. But Russia is five times bigger with vast assets and a surging economy - and it has the backing of China etc
North Korea alone has sent more shells to Moscow recently than the whole of Europe has sent to Kyiv
There is a prospect Ukraine will lose. We should probably prepare for it
The data from China and Russia can't be trusted even at the best of times, why would you trust it now?
Artillery shortages and delays in Western military assistance may compel Ukrainian forces to make difficult decisions about allocating resources across various front sectors, ISW assesses.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1753746403195551797
London is as near, and it maybe answers the question why those of us in North Wales have closer ties to Cheshire, Manchester and Liverpool than Wales's capital city
They repeat the data they're provided, they don't create it themselves.
Even though he knows, and all those around him, and all those big donors he’s asking for money knows, he’s going to lose, probably badly on both PV and college.
And the IMF
The interesting question is whether Wales will see the same dramatic fall in road casualties that Edinburgh did after 20mph, and whether a palpably safer urban landscape will see walking rates increase to match those in England as a result.
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/the-societal-wrecking-balls-of-social-media-and-hot-parents/
It is their only way of ensuring Putin doesn’t invade, and if I was Polish I’d want those missiles tomorrow
We are heading to a world of mass nuclear proliferation
I will get my het a chot
The key point is the western economy has shown it can do without Russia. Tightening up some sanctions would help particularly in relation to the stans. And Russian gas sales are not surging. Their entire infrastructure is set up to export to Europe. They have a 10 year project to build a new pipeline to China but the CCP isn't that fussed.
Of course, Brezhnev et al were not queuing for potatoes or turnips as they quaffed their way through caviar and champagne in the Kremlin dining room...
The FT, again
“In 2023, Russia’s energy revenues reached Rbs8.8tn — a decline of about a quarter from the record-breaking result in 2022 but above the average for the past ten years.”
In a graph:
https://www.politico.eu/article/czech-republic-artillery-weapons-ukraine-european-union/
Still, at least we can console ourselves with his assurances that he has no further territorial demands to make in Europe.
I wonder if Russia's long term downtrodden proletariat and mostly (now) willing to go along with Putin's rulership is a long term legacy of Mongol conquest, as opposed to the gradual growth of feudalism and then replacement of vassal status with citizenship for ordinary people. And even vassals had some rights their lords owed them.
The UK is 101%
France is 111%
The USA is 122%
The west is fundamentally weaker vis a vis Russia than it has been for many years. And the Russians - if they can find someone to lend to them - have an awful lot of room to borrow money, room the West does not possess
McKinley thrashed the energetic Bryan in 1896, despite campaigning no further than his garden gate. Charging around the place addressing adoring fans might not amount to much advantage, in the final analysis
Secondly, Farage is wildly popular amongst these folk and was leader in 2019, they had been turning out in numbers at actual elections for him and big V to the Tories poll after poll for many years, and what were the polling sub question answers of these voters during that time, 2018 2019?
I’ll make it easy for you, i’ll give you a multiple choice of 2 answers, and one of these actually happened.
“Well, a third of us are going back to the Tories for a general election, after all to throw away a vote on minor party who would get no seats is pointless, though a lot of us are actually up for doing that pointless thing. A sixth of us are convinced they are voting Labour.”
Or
“Well, nearly all of us are going to strip Nigel naked, tie him to a lampost, troll him all over with blue paint, and go and vote Conservative.”
If the Pro Farage vehicle couldn’t make voters stick with them for 2019 general election, there’s even less chance of holding em this time, in my opinion.
“Russian oil price cap has largely failed, new report finds
An analysis shared with POLITICO reveals that sanctions cheats, gaping loopholes and widespread circumvention mean oil revenues are still filling Moscow’s war chest.”
https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-oil-price-cap-ukraine-war-centre-research-energy-clean-air/
China's official debt is not the complete story because it omits regional/provincial borrowing, which is significant. I have fuzzy memories of watching a video about regions in Russia being led by Putinist governors, so it's possible regional borrowing is a factor there as well.
Betting PostF1: I've backed McLaren not to win a race in 2024, as a 5.5 special on Ladbrokes.
I'd like them to be competing for wins. And it is a credible possibility. But the dominance of Red Bull last year was quite something. Mercedes and Ferrari are both going for entirely new approaches and if either one get it right that'll make life harder for McLaren, who I think have won a single race in the last decade.
I believe these figures are probably in the ballpark; I don’t believe the IMF, World Bank and Reuters are all credulous idiots
FWIW Chinese stats might be more suspect. 5% growth? Really? Hmmm
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunak-less-popular-liz-truss-2887451
Labour 44 (+1)
Conservative 29 (+2)
Lib Dems 11 (+1)
Reform 8 (-3)
Green 6 (+1)
Other 3 (-1)
(Polling 30-31 January 2024)
Not this one. It’s the general election after this one, 4 years or so time, I’m sure the Tories will really struggle for voters in.
“A video showing youths apparently wielding machetes in broad daylight in Nottingham city centre has emerged on social media.
Read more: bbc.in/3Ur7DSV”
https://x.com/bbcemt/status/1753520131756482701?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
I also disagree with @Cyclefree on this issue but she did everything I am suggesting on the previous thread.
A total personal meltdown or a bar from standing are the main risks from his side, not whatever nonsensical, incoherent and hypocritical positions he takes.
I think that's right.
(Wishcasting possibly - time will tell)
And they are likely to come third in Ynys Môn (Plaid gain) and Caerfyrddin (50/50 whether Plaid or Labour win)
Being trans made Brianna vulnerable. I do think there are serious questions to be asked about the safeguarding here of a vulnerable child. Those questions need addressing to the school. Those safeguarding questions also need to be asked in relation to the two murderers. The role of porn and violent videos also arises.
See also my comment fpt here - https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/4675284#Comment_4675284.
On top of that she’s left the SNP led by an idiot, she’s had the police dig up her garden because corruption, she’s been arrested - with her husband - for the same, she’s seen the SNP nosedive in the polls, and as a final crowning achievement, Indy now seems further away than ever, indeed there may never be a second vote
Did I miss anything?
In fact he got busted so quickly, so for his gross incompetence he might have been a "free" mason.
Thank you, and good night.
There are two big areas: (1) What speech/expression/publication is against the law (civil and/or criminal); and (2) What are the allowable consequences that Y can deliver upon X because X has said/expressed/published something.
There is actually a fair degree of agreement about (1). Disallowed are: Shouting 'fire' in a crowded place without reason; handing out pornography to 6 year olds; untrue defamations; etc etc.
As to (2) there is no prospect of agreement, because this will vary not only according to political taste, but also vary according to who holds the social power to include and exclude others.
Essentially (1) is about the rule of law; (2) is about politics, small and great and the exercise of power; over which agreement is no more likely than a football match where both sides are trying to score in the same goal.
But it is not the only recent trans criminal court case which has passed unnoticed on here. The Andrew Miller case in Scotland has also been little remarked on here. It too is awful. It too raises difficult questions. The judge's sentencing remarks with details of the offences and Andrew Miller's response to his crimes are very disturbing. You can read them here - https://judiciary.scot/home/sentences-judgments/sentences-and-opinions/2023/10/18/hma-v-andrew-miller.
He wanted, reportedly, to retrain as a social worker, though it is hard to imagine anyone less suitable to perform such a role. Fortunately, his appeal against his long sentence was rejected. Good.
And I am much less emotional about this than you. ie I don’t DREAD a Trump presidency, he wouldn’t end the world, I just think he’d be bad news at a vulnerable moment
The economy is coming good at just the right moment for Biden. Another year of solid growth, low inflation, high employment, should see him home
Two caveats
1. A black swan (of course). Another war? Maybe Iran? Could change everything
2. Immigration. The border is totally out of control, can Trump weaponise that?
The parents of an autistic child with an IQ of 71 sought the help of police bc they were concerned by what he was watching on YouTube.
The cops spent a year covertly feeding the 13to radicalisation content and then charged him!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/feb/03/australian-undercover-police-autistic-13-year-old-fixation-islamic-state
It’s Entrapment
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entrapment