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Are the Tories set to lose ALL of their Welsh Seats? – politicalbetting.com
Are the Tories set to lose ALL of their Welsh Seats? – politicalbetting.com
? Poll suggests Labour would win 84% of Welsh seats in GE2024, amid a Tory wipeout in Wales.? LAB 22 (+9)? PC 4 (+2)? LD 1 (+1)? CON 0 (-12)Based on @RedfieldWilton poll, 24-26 Jan (+/- vs 2019) pic.twitter.com/el9NR033MK
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Is this a sub sample or a proper poll?
Unlike the SNP they are advancing
All political careers end in failure.
Hers has crashed and burned. It’s delicious.
https://x.com/janela_x/status/1753695678948163927?s=61&t=s0ae0IFncdLS1Dc7J0P_TQ
But then they're set to lose an immense number of seats all over.
Free Speech (TM) always meant “Relatively free speech, with penalties and prohibitions for only the most egregious statements”
There is a definite uptick in “it offends me therefore it is hate speech”
There is an uptick the other way - “I am a nice person. Therefore {insert crap about the Jews that Edward I would have said was Fucked In The Head} isn’t racism”
It’s almost as if the real world needs balance, moderate policies and lots of exceptions judged on a case by case basis.
Your messages about Brianna were transphobic. You consistently referred to her in a way that was dehumanising, calling her “it”. You also described her as a “femboy thing”. When discussing killing Brianna, you agreed with Scarlett that she would be the easiest victim and said “and I want to see if it will scream like a man or a girl.” After the failed attempt on 28 January and in answer to Scarlett expressing her desire to see Brianna suffering, you said “Really all I wanted is to see what size dick it had”. Because Scarlett is an unreliable witness, I will not use her evidence that you “had a problem with” gay and transgender people against you. Nor will I dwell on the unpleasant messages about someone being gay and what you might do to them. But in your messages about Brianna, you undoubtedly displayed hostility towards her based on her transgender identity.
Yes I am making a free speech point. The hatred towards trans people that these two fed off is real. I don't think the hatred is due to trans people being over enthusiastic in claiming their rights. Free speech enables people to say what they want. It also allows them not to say what they probably should.
As usual there are long-term trends (= socio-economics) and short-term fluctuations (= politics) to weigh up. The NE Wales red wall has been slowly trending Tory for decades as the mines and steelworks are replaced by un-unionised sunrise tech industries and the brick shit-houses where the miners used to live are surrounded by sunrise owner-occupied Barrett homes. The Tory vote may stay at home but I doubt if the Labour vote will increase much.
I'd have a fiver on the Tories holding Wrexham. The Independent-Tory 'city' council has ridden its luck in recent years and Sarah Atherton is locally popular. And evidence of the Wales Labour Government's incompetence is all too prominent - from the disastrous failure to repair local roads and bridges to the unstoppable mass-murderer Betsi Cadwalladr.
I expect the Tories to go backwards but I'll be surprised if they disappear entirely a la 1997.
For years, bottlers have used illegal purification techniques for water labeled as 'spring' and 'natural mineral.' A joint investigation by Le Monde and Radio France reveals that at least a third of France-based brands are implicated, including subsidiaries of Nestlé, which has admitted to these practices. The French government has been aware of this since 2021. In response, it quietly eased regulations.
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2024/01/30/revealed-france-s-bottled-water-plants-widely-used-fraudulent-purifying-techniques_6477927_114.html (£££)
Le Spring de Peckham. Le corruption de Paris.
But it would be better if the case-by-case basis was underpinned by principle instead of "I like/dislike this therefore". The US system is better than UKs, with the line more biased to freedom. In UK it is CurrentThingOfTheWealthy. The Fox case shocked me: if a spoilt wealthy talentless fop can't speak without a quarter mill in damages, where does that leave the diligent poors?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68190390
That seems fairly open-and-shut to me.
Brianna was targeted for murder, and she was targeted because she was trans.
As Allan Donald rather dryly said of Devon Malcolm in 1994, 'his rhythm was superb, his line was perfect and our batting made him look irresistible.'
And on topic, the key question is how badly the Conservatives end up doing nationwide. The raw Labour lead is about what it was in Summer '96. And then there was detectable swingback happening and some of the polls in the average weren't getting the shy Tory thing right, exaggerating the Labour lead.
Taking the numbers at face value, the Conservatives are currently heading for a defeat on the scale of 1997, if not worse. Why should they hold any Welsh seats?
I've been digging into the 20mph controversy in Wales to try and work out if there is an underlying cause for the hysteria (other than the malign actions of the Sunderland Conservative Party). And there is one!
There is data available on short commutes of less than 2km, or 1.2 miles, from the E&W census. That kind of commute would take most people up to 25 minutes by foot, up to 8 minutes by bicycle.
There is a peculiar Welsh tendency to drive these very short distances. The E&W average for driving distances less than 2km is 46%, while places like Merthyr Tydfil, Torfaen, Brigend and so on are over 60%. There are a few English areas, like Dudley and Warrington, in there too, but 9 of the top 10 areas are in Wales.
Can anyone suggest a reason why? The difference exists even after taking account of higher car availability in Wales - for example, Rutland in England has very high car ownership but most people will walk a commute less than 2km, while most of their Welsh counterparts will drive.
Yes: Cars are convenient and useful and driving is the best way to get around.
Especially if there's no shortage of parking etc like there is in overcrowded cities.
And if you own a car for a 10 mile drive, or a 100 mile drive, why not use it for a 2 mile one too?
Slow car differential voting makes.
Overall however yes Montgomeryshire may be safer still as the Tories had a 13,000 majority over the LDs and it is a rural seat
Challenge:
Find me another country in Europe that have a larger population of males that are overweight, walking around with a vape and energy drink in hand, only care about football and accumulators and are full of stress, aggression and hate than the UK right now.
Want to see how social programming truly works?
Just look at the UK and what's happened to it.
Look at how sick and run down most towns and people are.
Find me another country in Europe where it's glaringly obvious more so than the UK right now.........
8:15 AM · Feb 1, 2024
https://x.com/ajrobertsshow/status/1752968950135066673?s=20
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Perhaps it's the beautiful scenery.
It also occurs to me that Dudley, Merthyr and Torfaen (less so Bridgend) are very hilly. Might that be a factor as well?
Sandown 2.00 - In Excelsis Deo
Leopardstown 2.25 - Facile Vega
Musselburgh 2.50 - Benson
Sandown 3.45 - Blackjack Magic
Only another 37 Sleeps till the Fez 🥹
Which still makes me wonder why, given that time has passed and that's no longer an issue (not that it ever was).
had a very fit 21 year old patient who got myocarditis after his 2nd moderna. He has myocardial fibrosis and now can't pursue his dream job; the army.
He did not need a vaccine.
He was bullied and coerced in to it.
https://x.com/DrHoenderkamp/status/1752778878093832196?s=20
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-welsh-westminster-senedd-independence-referendum-voting-intention-24-26-january-2024/
Mwahahaha
The defense of Avdiivka has reached a critical situation. The fortress is on the verge of being cut and falling. Zaluzhny is trying to resign before the capture of Avdiivka by the Russians, so that he can then blame Zelensky for everything.
SnowStorm | Collapse of Avdiivka | The Crisis In Kyiv Is Worsening. Military Summary For 2024.02.02
https://x.com/MilitarySummary/status/1753496615950696862?s=20
Have they not tried urban speed limits in Russia yet? I've seen Russian dash cam footage. I think that might help. Dosvedanya comrade.
I don't know why I bother, what with people ducking out.
Following up on my flagging up a report of Dacorum Council engaging contractors to spy on people having a widdle in the countryside cause no public khazis, and giving the contractors mostd of the proceeds.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/29/english-council-littering-fines-peeing-in-countryside-dacorum-hertfordshire
As Wiki says, "Not to be confused with Decorum."
BTW Dacorum was Tory for 20 years until last year. Now LD.
But Wales is pervasively hilly.
Safe active travel is good for us.
https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/02/brianna-ghey-family-victim-impact-statements-trauma-loss
..“I have moments where I feel sorry for them because they have also ruined their own lives, but I have to remember that they felt no empathy for Brianna when they left her bleeding to death after their premeditated and vicious attack, which was carried out not because Brianna had done anything wrong, but just because one hated trans people and the other thought it would be fun.”.
It's true to say that they might well have killed someone else had the opportunity arisen.
It is a horrific case.
He was so obviously a troll no one would take it seriously, plus he was quite entertaining
I think we should be a little more lenient, it adds to the gaiety of the site. Also, he didn’t break any rules
*Yes, I am aware of the irony of me calling out others for a lack of subtlety.
Striking is approval.
Starmer +1
Sunak -38.
Yet the people they shortlisted were all 'others'. And the person they picked - and tried to kill twice (they tried to poison her first) was trans. And they made a load of anti-trans comments.
So no. It was not *just* the fact she was vulnerable.
‘“They predicted decline, failure, collapse — that we would stand back, give up, or fall apart. It makes you want to show [them] a well-known gesture, but I won’t do that, there are a lot of ladies here,” Putin said to a round of applause. “They won’t succeed! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs.”
Russia’s president gloated that Russia’s economy had not only withstood an onslaught of sanctions from western countries — but was now bigger than all but two of them. He was referring to the World Bank’s ranking of GDP by purchasing power parity, by which Russia slightly edges ahead of Germany. “All of our industry did their part,” he said.’
Are they going to win?
We do agree generally on the 20mph limit and it seems it is accepted across the political divide that it will be reviewed and changes made
It is, with respect, the misinformed who think this is a conservative battle as it is far wider and involves many who are Labour and Plaid supporters and those who are not politically motivated
Once the review is completed and the changes made later this year, then it should cease to be an issue
Good morning anyway. Or should I say afternoon/evening/night?
Perhaps that's the true rationale for the 20mph limit.
It's under a similar ukase to AI generated images.
It’s an uncomfortable fact, but a fact we have to confront. It’s also an incentive for Putin to continue the war: he’s stalled the Ukraine advances, America is losing interest. And now his economy is - relatively - surging, which allows him to buy and make more weapons
Meanwhile, Germany is in recession