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Trump moves up in the WH2024 betting after winning the GOP Iowa caucuses – politicalbetting.com
Trump moves up in the WH2024 betting after winning the GOP Iowa caucuses – politicalbetting.com
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https://x.com/borisjohnson/status/1747187167066022059?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Not sure if it’s linked, and not to blow smoke up your arse, I have found your posts on here in the past few days particularly insightful. We are very different politically but between the need for a programme of investment and the need to rearm Europe swiftly, there is a lot of common ground which gives me some hope for the emergence of some sensible politics in the UK in the next few years.
(Just been multiply dethreaded .... Bah! or rather Baa! @TSE .)
One of the sproggs?
I would appreciate an update header on where we are with the Boundary Commission review process for 2024, and what the impacts are likely to be.
I had a look at Ashfield, and it is ... complicated !
Though I think N Hampshire has gone rogue for the DEMs and they've got the equivalent of about 4 Ada Hutchinson type never weres competing there in their primary ?
https://x.com/rachelreevesmp/status/1747162884893741139?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
We are completely snowed in so will be living off the contents of our freezer.
Time to stoke the fire.
The USA is stuffed, isn't it.
They could have 30 points deducted in total this season, 20 for PSR and 10 points for going into administration.
https://www.givemesport.com/everton-777-partners-update-january-premier-league/
DJT prizes subservience and loyalty above all so maybe Kash Patel or Devin Nunes.
One of the MAGA Karens like Kari Lake or MTG would do to much limelight hogging for DJT's taste.
Journalists from The Sun newspaper will not be present for Bolton's Emirates FA Cup third-round replay with Luton Town after the publication had its media privileges suspended.
The decision was taken following a headline in Sunday's print newspaper.
#BWFC #LTFC #EmiratesFACup
https://x.com/burndenaces/status/1746946028241105210?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
I hope it's a decent sized freezer.
GOP gains AZ, GA and NV while Dems hold MI, WI and PA.
Result (I think) Dem 270 GOP 268.
Maximum turmoil.
Trying to cancel your vote is unpopular path: Also 3% swing nationally, but specifically in states where Trump tried to overturn the election, Biden overperforms by 3% resulting in the exact same map.
Florida Flypaper path: All the conservatives from the purple states have moved to Florida where thanks to glorious reign of DeSantis, they can live their lives free from worrying about whatever it is that upsets them about trans people. Betting markets go bananas as Trump scores a crushing win in the first swing state to report, then totally fails to replicate it anywhere else.
They did think the US constitution with its separation of powers is the optimal form of democratic government.
They now have some collywobbles over that belief.
If Trump fails they may go back to their previous thoughts (although some might think 'that for the grace of god' and they will be the sane ones)
If Trump wins they will definitely not think the system they believed in so long was so good, by which time it will be too late.
For most people they don't believe in incompatible things at the same time. They do at different times, but we are all able to change our minds.
I treated myself to umpteen (actually around 35) over->freezer->oven->table->dishwasher Pyrex-alike 1/2 portion dishes for Christmas, and I have done batch cooking but last week lost my last fish pie behind a wall of frozen plum crumbles
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1747180013084918058
Trump led an insurrection against the separated powers in 2021. And openly states that he will take dictatorial powers on day 1 of a second term to simply discard the separated powers.
Hard to argue that Trump won't dismantle the existing democratic system when he says "I will be a dictator on day 1"
Only the centre-left stands in the way of a world more screwed than when screwy the screwy squirrel twisted his nuts.
Setting aside the strawman that the U.S. system is 'optimal', no democratic system is invulnerable.
If the republic falls - which is a very long way from certain in any event - it's because it's been steadily undermined over the last decade, not because of a single event.
Don't be daft.
Or did you mean Keir Starmer ?
But last time the tipping point state was Wisconsin which Biden won by 0.6%, whereas nationally he won the vote by 4.4%, so a 3.8% advantage to Trump. It's quite a lot to completely overturn especially as we (probably) have the same 2 candidates this time. Maybe, as others have suggested, issues like abortion access will mean Biden will outperform national polls in the Midwest, but worth noting that Michigan has already passed a referendum (in 2022) protecting abortion access, so Biden might not get much of a boost there?
Historically - as in Nazi Germany - you not only need the backing of a large segment of the population and / or willingness to acquiesce but you also the need the support of the bureaucracy, industrial and military segments to take that step.
Trump does not have the backing of any of those segments. The bureaucracy is against him and, while he can fire the heads of areas, he cannot get rid of the whole Government infrastructure. The finance and commercial interests are also likely to not give their backing. Neither will the military and, even if he did fire the commanders, the rank and file (plus junior officers) would rebel. Plus you have a number of Democrat led states that he would not be able to govern.
The whole idea he could impose a dictatorship even if he wanted to is bonkers.
(Ideally you'd divide these numbers by population to see how big a deal they are.)
When the big issue becomes to be immigration then the 'centre-right' are usually to the left of the mid-point thereby allowing a big opening for the 'neo-right'.
https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/britain-has-zero-active-naval-supply-ships-for-first-time/
Four decades of Tory defence cuts...
So, at the very least, huge riots, martial law, and possible secession. That's enough to be getting on with.
It beggars belief that 50% of Americans can vote for someone who patently lies continuously, who believes magnets don't work in water, F35s are invisible, hurricanes van be cured with atom bombs and bleach will get rid of covid (well that one is true, but the side effects are somewhat dramatic). We are talking about someone who when you put his answers to questions on paper they are a random collection of words. And how the hell do Evangelicals vote for someone who breaks just about every rule they believe in?
But all these people do vote for him and if you believe in democracy they have every right to. Crap system isn't it, but there is nothing better.
Higher taxes on the rich and property than otherwise
and/or
lower spending on the oldies and poor than otherwise.
Just like Frederick Tudor circa 1810.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_trade#:~:text=Opening up the trade, 1800–1830,-Frederic Tudor, the&text=The ice trade began in,afford their own ice houses.
DeSantis will stagger on a little longer, but he's going out probably after NH.
It's going to be Trump. It was always going to be Trump. And then he'll lose to Biden.
1 He has the backing of a significant proportion of the population
2 He has embedded control in a large number of states through elected Trumpers
3 He has control of Congress and is only just shy of control of the Senate
4 As CinC he can appoint whomever he likes to run all of the levers of government and military
It is a distinct possibility that a reelected Trump carries out his threat to go after his enemies. So install a supplicant to run the FBI and order them to arrest his enemies. Some may refuse orders, many will not. And the ones who refuse will also be arrested.
Even if he pulls his punches and only legislates rather than dictates, we know where that goes. Rights stripped for women and minorities. We will get a showdown where women refused the right to travel (allegedly because they may be going out of state for ungodly things like birth control or abortion) take their state to SCOTUS and lose.
This is the official article on the estimated 2019 election result for the 2024 new constituencies.
Analysis by Colin Rawlings, Michael Thresher, David Denver and Nicholas Whyte.
The spreadsheet with all the calculations is linked below.
https://downloads.bbc.co.uk/news/nol/shared/spl/xls_spreadsheets/results_spreadsheet.ods
Methodology
https://downloads.bbc.co.uk/news/nol/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/bounds_explainer.pdf
Following the last general election, a direct swing of seven percentage points from Conservative to Labour was required for Labour to become the largest party in a hung parliament. The boundary revisions up this target for Labour to a swing of 8.3 percentage points. To gain an overall majority Labour needs a swing of 12.7%, up from 12.0% on the old boundaries. A more difficult task certainly, but perhaps more a matter of degree than of substance. The swing needed is still substantially more than the 10.2% Tony Blair achieved in 1997, and indeed more than double that at any other election since 1945. Any uniform swing from Conservative to Labour of greater than 4.2% and less than 12.7% at the next general election is likely to produce a hung parliament with no one party having an overall majority.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/16/post-office-scandal-latest-alan-bates-before-mps-watch/
The inquiry: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bpo05gkigJg
Select committee: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXXaq_21eXY
Labour won a comfortable majority in 2005 with a national lead of under 3%. While I don't expect their vote to be that efficient this year, the idea that they need a lead of 13% for a majority of just 2 is nuts and clearly has been past no sense-checking.
He is, as he was before, cruising towards the nomination - judges, juries and health permitting - but Haley should show fairly strongly in the next two official contests which won't make it look like the unopposed coronation he'd like.
*50-gun ships partly disarmed by the removal of one deck's worth of guns to make room for supplies or squaddies.
Easier to make 'people like them' bear the extra costs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvd-dGZ6PYM
He doesn't need the military on-side; he'd need them neutral, which is easy enough as commander-in-chief: you just order them to stay in barracks / on normal exercises etc.
And America, famously, has the Second Amendment. So how do you establish a dictatorship? Intimidation. You control the mob. If Trump had any sense, he'd be forming militias-in-training, under the 2nd, to provide for that paramilitary role, with command structures and the rest. Force opponents to resign or acquiesce, or meet out violence.
It's not all that difficult to do. See Russia, for the template.
Call some place Paradise, kiss it goodbye.
In the event she came third with 19.1%, 1.1% behind DeSantis.
So not really 'very poor', really pretty much as expected.
He just can't do it even if he wanted to.
But the legal aspect is only one side. The SA and Hitler's mobs were as much a part of the political system as ministerial decree.
Sure, technically he can use Schedule F but then what? There are no federal employees. How exactly does the US govern or do anything? You cannot just draft in a bunch of people with MAGA hats.
The military will not stay neutral in any such situation. In any effect, Democrat and any Republican-led states that joined them have their own National Guards plus specialist police units etc.
The key I think is in what you say "If Trump had any sense, he'd be forming militias-in-training..." He is not and there are no signs he is planning to do so. Such training takes a huge amount of time, effort and training. He clearly isn't doing it and nor does he look to be planning as such.
This whole talk of 1933 revisited is not only bonkers but is also heavily damaging especially as its logical conclusion is 'anything is justified to nullify the threat'.
Which was clear throughout his past administration.
But the first time round served to eliminate those Republicans who weren't prepared to worship at the altar of Trump, and the team around him is much better prepared (see, for example, the plan in place to fire 50,000 civil servants deemed awkward).
It won't be as simple as following the Russia template - the US does have many checks built into the system - and the outcome of a second Trump presidency is far from certain. But it's the biggest threat to US democracy in my lifetime.
Any country can be made into a dictatorship with the consent of a reasonable minority of the governed who are prepared to use violence in its support.
There are some genuine enthusiasts for untrammelled presidential power on the court. While they aren't a majority, four years is a long time.
The swing from the Conservatives to Labour would need to be uniform, to follow the same pattern everywhere, with other parties seeing no change in performance since 2019.
In practice, the picture will be more complicated, so this is a rough guide. But a uniform national swing has been a reliable model for general elections in the UK over a long period of time.
It appears that the federal agents have been told to assist illegal immigrants across the border, whereas the local government wishes to restrict such immigration.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/biden-admin-demands-texas-allow-border-patrol-agents-access-to-border-area/ar-AA1mYuBR
Suppose that Dan Quayle hadn't told Pence that he didn't have any option but to certify Biden as winner in 2020.
Or suppose that the Jan 6th insurrectionists had killed Pence or a Senator or two. Trump was still President at that time.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/09/14/politics/dan-quayle-pence-trump-january-6-woodward-costa-book/index.html
Lee Anderson planning to rebel confident he will keep his job as Tory deputy chair...
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1747217268008681932
(Parenthetically, the fact that you phrased it that way showed the uphill element of the problem. It is not impossible to tax the rich more and we need to start doing it. We should not continue to run a pretendy state on credit.)
I suspect he’ll be fired tomorrow morning, because he has to be if the PM is to retain any respect at all.
The 2020 election was stolen. And the best way to stop the steal in 2024 and thus Defend The Constitution is to have groups of armed men with machine guns outside every polling station where democrats vote.
I think Texas is always a bit up 'up you' to the Feds given the GOP did propose to secede from the Union (and Texas was, at one point, its own state).
Mind you, trouble is also brewing in other border states like Arizona where (Democrat) Katie Hobbs has been saying she will take action.
This has NOTHING to do with money or cuts. That's just what the MoD want everyone to believe in order to get more money. Recall that the FSSP program started in 2015 to deliver 3 ships by 2025.
The only time the tories have acted with any haste in this fiasco was to sell, with all possible immediacy, the two other Sold Support ships (Fort Rosalie and Fort Austin) to Egypt in 2021.
The Fireplace Salesman saw the USMSC special forces support ship and got a bit lovestruck at the sight of big lads with tats so he halted the program in 2017 in order to turn these ships into SF war canoes. Baldy Ben managed to tear himself away from the pie counter in Greggs to restart the effort in 2019 but now, because of reasons, they had to be built by H&W in the Six Counties - a shipyard that hasn't built a naval vessel for 40 odd years and can't find the manual for their TIG welder. Even with the Spaniards doing the difficult bits this is now a very lengthy build process that won't produce any ships until 2031.
This has FUCK ALL to do with a lack of money. It's the natural consequence of mismanagement, indecision and the use of the defence budget for the political aim of industrial welfare. To give the MoD any more money than they currently receive is the same as burning it.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67361138
He also might sack loads of civil servants and appoint loyalists. He'll probably replace generals who aren't sufficiently loyal. But I don't think this kind of stuff really makes him a 'dictator', though he may find ways to undermine democracy. He might find that after taking a lot more control through various means, that he can't blame the 'deep state' for screwing everything up anymore and he'll become quite unpopular. A bit like the Conservatives in the UK have (mostly) lost the EU as a useful scapegoat for anything unpopular.
You know what, fuck it just keep the bet
It is completely dishonest of you to break your word like this, having agreed to void it, and I’m confident I’d win any ‘arbitration’ if the judge was fair.
On the other hand I was surprised you agreed to void it so readily in the first place, that was maybe too generous. You realise now that you didn’t have to do that, and wish you hadn’t. Bet regret.
But it leaves me in the position of giving up over two grand because I was banned from here without any reason being given, which doesn’t seem right at all.
That won't help the rout, but the individuals concerned won't be able to help themselves - they might also be more by-elections.