"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
Yes, but that is assuming that all Reform votes go Con according to the article. That isn't going to happen.
"Estimated number of seats won with Reform standing and if Reform votes went to the Conservatives at next election" is the legend on the chart.
I see both Isle of Wight seats go Labour. Is that the first time ever?
It'll be the first time IOW has had 2 seats. So definitely.
It'd been Conservative, Liberal and LD but never Labour as far as I can see. Even in 1945.
My friends on the isle tell me 'no way' - it will remain Tory.
I'm not so sure. There's a lot of poverty on the island, and quite a lot of light greens too.
Drilling down, both seats are very narrowly Lab gains
I am with the Eastern European states that we have at best 2-3 years from today to re-establish a credible deterrence posture vis-à-vis Russia. Otherwise, we run the grave risk that Russia is going to challenge us, sooner rather than later. 16/20
As Cold War historians know, the balance of military power is not deterministic of outcomes in risk-taking competitions. Instead, they are often determined by the balance of resolve; i.e., the relative willingness to remain steadfast even as risks are increasing. 12/20
We must also have a serious discussion not only about how to deter a war with 🇷🇺 but also about how to fight one.
Slightly odd article from the BBC on tge Taiwanese election: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67974541 " China sees any statement of support towards the DPP as lending legitimacy to politicians, which Beijing sees as a gang of separatists hoping to turn Taiwan into an independent sovereign nation."
Are we not supposed to see Taiwan as an independent sovereign nation then, BBC?
Strangely, no. The official position, endorsed by governments around the world, is that there is only one China, which includes the Province of Taiwan, Jinmen and Matsu. The only difference being in who is the legitimate government. The current government of Taiwan does not claim independence. That's why they aren't in the UN. Of course, de facto they are. But nobody says that.
That’s a little misleading
They asked 13 times to be considered for participation but the General Committee of the General Assembly refused to include it on the agenda due to PRC’s opposition
In 2007 they made a formal application for membership but this was rejected by the legal office before even being considered by the secretary general.
As Ban Ki-Moon put it The position of the United Nations is that the People's Republic of China is representing the whole of China as the sole and legitimate representative Government of China. The decision until now about the wish of the people in Taiwan to join the United Nations has been decided on that basis. The resolution (General Assembly Resolution 2758) that you just mentioned is clearly mentioning that the Government of China is the sole and legitimate Government and the position of the United Nations is that Taiwan is part of China.
So I guess a 2 state solution is ok when it’s Israel and not ok when it is a close ally of the US?
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
MRP does show that Labour won't win a majority if Reform stand down.
Is that on the assumption that Reform voters would vote Tory in a straight red/blue fight? Many may simply not vote at all.
That's going to be the fun. What's YouGov, and what's Telegraph spin?
Small print tomorrow, it seems.
More details from us on this tomorrow, including seat shares. For now:
- Yes, new boundaries 🗺️ - Yes, really, 14,000 interviews 📋 - Yes, I’m confident this is the best possible model of vote intention, given our data, at this time 🤓
That YouGov MRP is potentially much worse for the Tories than the Telegraph headline suggests - there’s a favourable DK reallocation for them and no tactical voting is factored in.
As for a hung Parliament without Reform, that’s not the MRP saying that, it’s the Telegraph reallocating all Reform votes to the Tories.
Slightly odd article from the BBC on tge Taiwanese election: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67974541 " China sees any statement of support towards the DPP as lending legitimacy to politicians, which Beijing sees as a gang of separatists hoping to turn Taiwan into an independent sovereign nation."
Are we not supposed to see Taiwan as an independent sovereign nation then, BBC?
Strangely, no. The official position, endorsed by governments around the world, is that there is only one China, which includes the Province of Taiwan, Jinmen and Matsu. The only difference being in who is the legitimate government. The current government of Taiwan does not claim independence. That's why they aren't in the UN. Of course, de facto they are. But nobody says that.
That’s a little misleading
They asked 13 times to be considered for participation but the General Committee of the General Assembly refused to include it on the agenda due to PRC’s opposition
In 2007 they made a formal application for membership but this was rejected by the legal office before even being considered by the secretary general.
As Ban Ki-Moon put it The position of the United Nations is that the People's Republic of China is representing the whole of China as the sole and legitimate representative Government of China. The decision until now about the wish of the people in Taiwan to join the United Nations has been decided on that basis. The resolution (General Assembly Resolution 2758) that you just mentioned is clearly mentioning that the Government of China is the sole and legitimate Government and the position of the United Nations is that Taiwan is part of China.
So I guess a 2 state solution is ok when it’s Israel and not ok when it is a close ally of the US?
That YouGv MRP is potentially much worse for the Tories than the Telegraph headline suggests - there’s a favourable DK reallocation for them and no tactical voting factored in.
As for a hung Parliament without Reform, that’s not the MRP saying that, it’s the Telegraph reallocating all Reform votes to the Tories.
The absolute f*cking charlatans; if I was a Yougov director I'd be livid at the Telegraph - that's gross misrepresentation.
As I am not, I half hope the Tories do lurch further to the right, it can only increase their chances of consigning themselves to the bin of history.
That YouGov MRP is potentially much worse for the Tories than the Telegraph headline suggests - there’s a favourable DK reallocation for them and no tactical voting is factored in.
As for a hung Parliament without Reform, that’s not the MRP saying that, it’s the Telegraph reallocating all Reform votes to the Tories.
It's not the MRP allocating them, that is the Telegraph themselves.
When I catch HIGNFY, it can still be quite funny. But it suffers from a similar problem to Private Eye. I use to subscribe to PE from when I was about 25 to 40; I loved it. But after that many years, the stories were all the same, even if the names were different. It got boring.
On several occasions where I knew something about what Private Eye was satirising, they were usuallly off-target - typically taking something out of context because it fitted their "the powers that be are corrupt and laughable" agenda. Their covers are usually great, but the content is so slanted to cynicism that it's an unreliable guide to what's actually happening. When they do expose something serious like the PO scandal, it gets lost in the general pool of random muck-raking. I suspect that's why their revelations weren't taken seriously.
I think I agree with that, but it's just what I expect from journalism. It seems whenever a story's printed in a paper that I know a little about, there will be some detail wrong.
The best was one where the Derby Evening Telegraph put a large fire on the wrong side of the town, when it was a few streets away from their offices.
Another problem with PE is that it's unremittingly negative. An occasional 'well done!' story without cynicism would go down a treat. Governments and councils do occasionally get things right.
While I agree with the fact journalists get it wrong. Sorry mp's usually seem to have less clue so Nick saying a subject I knew about and the papers got it wrong may be true....not convinced nick knew either unless it was on his speciality animal welfafe.....politicians and journalists sadly are the same they are generalists that no fuck all about anything but feel they are experts on everything
That YouGov MRP is potentially much worse for the Tories than the Telegraph headline suggests - there’s a favourable DK reallocation for them and no tactical voting is factored in.
As for a hung Parliament without Reform, that’s not the MRP saying that, it’s the Telegraph reallocating all Reform votes to the Tories.
It's not the MRP allocating them, that is the Telegraph themselves.
That YouGov MRP is potentially much worse for the Tories than the Telegraph headline suggests - there’s a favourable DK reallocation for them and no tactical voting is factored in.
As for a hung Parliament without Reform, that’s not the MRP saying that, it’s the Telegraph reallocating all Reform votes to the Tories.
It's not the MRP allocating them, that is the Telegraph themselves.
...My impression is that MRP is more hit and miss...
As a rough rule of thumb it "works" (has an acceptable mean absolute error) for UK General Elections (and, oddly, German ones) but has an unacceptable error rate for US POTUSes. Nobody really knows why.
...My impression is that MRP is more hit and miss...
As a rough rule of thumb it "works" (has an acceptable mean absolute error) for UK General Elections (and, oddly, German ones) but has an unacceptable error rate for US POTUSes. Nobody really knows why.
...My impression is that MRP is more hit and miss...
As a rough rule of thumb it "works" (has an acceptable mean absolute error) for UK General Elections (and, oddly, German ones) but has an unacceptable error rate for US POTUSes. Nobody really knows why.
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
Is Starmer a socialist? He is barely even a social democrat
Slightly on topic. Taiwan is a fascinating place. Plenty go for business, but almost nobody for pleasure. It's got rainforest. The highest mountain east of the Himalayas. Beaches. Ultra modern cities and crookbacked women in conical hats transplanting rice. Natural hot springs. Loads of history too. Weather isn't great, mind.
I watch an embarrassing amount of cookery shows (both TV and YT) and I've still yet to happen on someone visiting Taiwan. I'm not sure if it's just rubbish or if there is sensitivity towards the Chinese market. I'm guessing the latter though.
You should watch Eat Drink Man Woman. Romantic comedy set in Taiwan involving lots of cooking.
Tampopo is one of my favourite films - so this sounds ideal.
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
Is Starmer a socialist? He is barely even a social democrat
If you want to unite the british public, form a party that says all current mp's, civil servants and quangocrats get 5 years in prison. Most of us would vote to send the fuckers down
I have to admit I skipped my last jab. My first experience of Covid was rather unpleasant, the second trivial. I decided that after four jabs and two infections my immune system was probably up to the job. As it happens I know that the snuffle I had in November was my 3rd COVID as I'm on the ONS winter survey. It was like a cold only less serious but with more post-infection fatigue than I expected. I didn't isolate and went into work.
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
Is Starmer a socialist? He is barely even a social democrat
Not showing much confidence in Tory leaders not yet born's ability to win elections, our Nads. I mean I know the talent pool is more of a puddle at the minute but surely someone right-wing who is competent enough to win elections will be born at some point?
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
I have to admit I skipped my last jab. My first experience of Covid was rather unpleasant, the second trivial. I decided that after four jabs and two infections my immune system was probably up to the job. As it happens I know that the snuffle I had in November was my 3rd COVID as I'm on the ONS winter survey. It was like a cold only less serious but with more post-infection fatigue than I expected. I didn't isolate and went into work.
I skipped my covid jab this year as the email I had from the NHS only mentioned flu. Nothing about a covid booster and I thought I'd wait until I could combine the two rather than give FirstBus a fiver each time.
Then my local GP surgery berated me for not taking my covid jab up.
The “stunningly awful poll” doesn’t seem to have shaken Frost out of his complacency.
It is amazing that the Tory right can't see that Sunak has torched his reputation and reasonable personal ratings by emphasising that he shares their obsessions.
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
Yes but when recall reared its ugly head, Boris bravely turned and fled.
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
Is Starmer a socialist? He is barely even a social democrat
Not showing much confidence in Tory leaders not yet born's ability to win elections, our Nads. I mean I know the talent pool is more of a puddle at the minute but surely someone right-wing who is competent enough to win elections will be born at some point?
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
Yes but when recall reared its ugly head, Boris bravely turned and fled.
So it doesn't matter. He red carded himself.
Yeah Nad acts like Johnson didn't literally RUN AWAY
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
Is Starmer a socialist? He is barely even a social democrat
Not showing much confidence in Tory leaders not yet born's ability to win elections, our Nads. I mean I know the talent pool is more of a puddle at the minute but surely someone right-wing who is competent enough to win elections will be born at some point?
She clearly believes Boris is still that man
Of all the weird obsessives in the party, she still manages to stand out.
In London Live now is a film called ‘Big Boys Don’t Cry’. It’s about a children’s home in Hornchurch where there boys were abused in the 80s. A few of my mates went to school with some of the victims
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
Yes but when recall reared its ugly head, Boris bravely turned and fled.
So it doesn't matter. He red carded himself.
Yeah Nad acts like Johnson didn't literally RUN AWAY
...My impression is that MRP is more hit and miss...
As a rough rule of thumb it "works" (has an acceptable mean absolute error) for UK General Elections (and, oddly, German ones) but has an unacceptable error rate for US POTUSes. Nobody really knows why.
Yebbut... 1992.
MRP did not exist as a technique in 1992. If memory serves the original paper came out in the Noughties in the US and they started using it in anger around 2008/12.
When I catch HIGNFY, it can still be quite funny. But it suffers from a similar problem to Private Eye. I use to subscribe to PE from when I was about 25 to 40; I loved it. But after that many years, the stories were all the same, even if the names were different. It got boring.
On several occasions where I knew something about what Private Eye was satirising, they were usuallly off-target - typically taking something out of context because it fitted their "the powers that be are corrupt and laughable" agenda. Their covers are usually great, but the content is so slanted to cynicism that it's an unreliable guide to what's actually happening. When they do expose something serious like the PO scandal, it gets lost in the general pool of random muck-raking. I suspect that's why their revelations weren't taken seriously.
I think I agree with that, but it's just what I expect from journalism. It seems whenever a story's printed in a paper that I know a little about, there will be some detail wrong.
The best was one where the Derby Evening Telegraph put a large fire on the wrong side of the town, when it was a few streets away from their offices.
Another problem with PE is that it's unremittingly negative. An occasional 'well done!' story without cynicism would go down a treat. Governments and councils do occasionally get things right.
While I agree with the fact journalists get it wrong. Sorry mp's usually seem to have less clue so Nick saying a subject I knew about and the papers got it wrong may be true....not convinced nick knew either unless it was on his speciality animal welfafe.....politicians and journalists sadly are the same they are generalists that no fuck all about anything but feel they are experts on everything
Agree with your point re: generalism, with caveat that politicos often have access to information not readily available. NOT nefariously (mostly) but due to proximity to other movers and shakers, in environments where generalists and specialists (and don't knows) are gathered together, dealing with bunches of things at the same time.
So Nick might know something, just because he's rubbing shoulders with somebody who knows something about it.
The “stunningly awful poll” doesn’t seem to have shaken Frost out of his complacency.
It is amazing that the Tory right can't see that Sunak has torched his reputation and reasonable personal ratings by emphasising that he shares their obsessions.
They are fighting the next leadership election every minute of every day now. Not the GE.
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
She's probably right.
Boris is yesterday's man.
Would he win more seats than Sunak if he had the Big Comeback?
I think the answer is yes.
But not enough to save the day from the socialist imperium of Starmer and Reeves.
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
She's probably right.
Boris is yesterday's man.
Would he win more seats than Sunak if he had the Big Comeback?
I think the answer is yes.
But not enough to save the day from the socialist imperium of Starmer and Reeves.
Questionable.
What dazzling new insights does the old bluffer have to offer ? I think they could even do worse.
But of course you can’t run both sides of the experiment anyway.
The “stunningly awful poll” doesn’t seem to have shaken Frost out of his complacency.
It is amazing that the Tory right can't see that Sunak has torched his reputation and reasonable personal ratings by emphasising that he shares their obsessions.
They are fighting the next leadership election every minute of every day now. Not the GE.
As the Corbynites could tell you. Winning the leadership isn't much use if you can't turn that into electoral success.
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
She's probably right.
Boris is yesterday's man.
Would he win more seats than Sunak if he had the Big Comeback?
I think the answer is yes.
But not enough to save the day from the socialist imperium of Starmer and Reeves.
I think it’s a certainty that he’d win more seats than Sunak - 2019 Tory voters actually like Boris. Perhaps his return would unsettle Sir Keir, who is bound to lose support once voters see more of him during the campaign anyway. But it seems that ship has sailed. What fools the Tory MPs were; did they really believe they’d do better with someone else?
This is a somewhat alarmist thread. But its thesis isn’t absurd, even if you think it unlikely. European defence ministers need to consider this sort of stuff.
In this thread, I will explain why we are* much closer to war with 🇷🇺 than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis 🇷🇺. Here's why 👇 1/20 https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1746589423251403236
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
Is Starmer a socialist? He is barely even a social democrat
Not showing much confidence in Tory leaders not yet born's ability to win elections, our Nads. I mean I know the talent pool is more of a puddle at the minute but surely someone right-wing who is competent enough to win elections will be born at some point?
She clearly believes Boris is still that man
Even Nadine surely doesn't believe Boris is an immortal being.
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
She's probably right.
Boris is yesterday's man.
Would he win more seats than Sunak if he had the Big Comeback?
I think the answer is yes.
But not enough to save the day from the socialist imperium of Starmer and Reeves.
I think it’s a certainty that he’d win more seats than Sunak - 2019 Tory voters actually like Boris. Perhaps his return would unsettle Sir Keir, who is bound to lose support once voters see more of him during the campaign anyway. But it seems that ship has sailed. What fools the Tory MPs were; did they really believe they’d do better with someone else?
If Boris hadn't lied about the parties then we would be in a different world.
What, beyond desire to inform, is purpose and (dare I say) strategy behind The Telegraph publishing this survey and tour d'horizon, at this time?
Assuming it to be a serious question, it is an attempt by the Conservative group that commissioned it (and possibly the Telegraph that published it) to pressure Sunak to swing towards the righter side - I assume given context this means more anti-immigration and Culture War stuff - to reduce the threat from the Reform Group Party and maximise Con chances. It might work, it might not: we will see.
If Boris hadn't lied about the parties then we would be in a different world.
It is a tragedy in the shakespeare sense.
Yes but he was always going to.
I remember CHB posting in 2019 about how Johnson would eventually come unstuck and wouldn't last. This was laughed at, even when CHB was saying about the high water mark during the ridiculous "decade in power" posts we had here at the time.
@NadineDorries Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first. Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority. Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
She's probably right.
Boris is yesterday's man.
Would he win more seats than Sunak if he had the Big Comeback?
I think the answer is yes.
But not enough to save the day from the socialist imperium of Starmer and Reeves.
I think it’s a certainty that he’d win more seats than Sunak - 2019 Tory voters actually like Boris. Perhaps his return would unsettle Sir Keir, who is bound to lose support once voters see more of him during the campaign anyway. But it seems that ship has sailed. What fools the Tory MPs were; did they really believe they’d do better with someone else?
If Boris hadn't lied about the parties then we would be in a different world.
That is a despicable comment under thecircumstances. "But Ninja called me a dick". Well call him one back. What you just wrote is unacceptable, anywhere!
If Boris hadn't lied about the parties then we would be in a different world.
It is a tragedy in the shakespeare sense.
Yes but he was always going to.
I remember CHB posting in 2019 about how Johnson would eventually come unstuck and wouldn't last. This was laughed at, even when CHB was saying about the high water mark during the ridiculous "decade in power" posts we had here at the time.
Not hearing much about these ‘stolen votes’ from Trump.
Virginia county admits election tally in 2020 shorted Joe Biden https://wtop.com/prince-william-county/2024/01/virginia-county-admits-election-tally-in-2020-shorted-joe-biden/ … The case against White is the only criminal prosecution brought thus far by a special Election Integrity Unit that Miyares formed in 2022. Miyares’ office said the unit was created in part to fulfill a campaign promise “because Virginians expressed concerns to him about our elections as he traveled across the Commonwealth.” Critics, including the NAACP, said the unit was formed to pander to election deniers…
This is a somewhat alarmist thread. But its thesis isn’t absurd, even if you think it unlikely. European defence ministers need to consider this sort of stuff.
In this thread, I will explain why we are* much closer to war with 🇷🇺 than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis 🇷🇺. Here's why 👇 1/20 https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1746589423251403236
*That should say “might be”.
I have always assumed that the Ukrainian war will involve British action against Russia. Yes we need to rearm.
This is a somewhat alarmist thread. But its thesis isn’t absurd, even if you think it unlikely. European defence ministers need to consider this sort of stuff.
In this thread, I will explain why we are* much closer to war with 🇷🇺 than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis 🇷🇺. Here's why 👇 1/20 https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1746589423251403236
"If the Tories don’t act, there will soon only be smoking rubble left The results of this poll are stunningly awful. Whatever the strategy is – and it is often hard to discern one – it isn’t working David Frost"
"If the Tories don’t act, there will soon only be smoking rubble left The results of this poll are stunningly awful. Whatever the strategy is – and it is often hard to discern one – it isn’t working David Frost"
@LabourList Labour has "radically" changed its scripts for activists to use on the doorstep, and our "field operation now really informs our comms". General secretary David Evans explains how and why:
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
HY has form in analysing this poll with pinpoint accuracy. I await his input.
He had Johnson on a landslide whilst some of us were dismissing his claims as wishful thinking.
I don't dispute it, though 169 Tory MPs and 385 Labour MPs would be slightly closer than 1997.
Much also depends on whether Sunak can squeeze the Reform UK vote to give Starmer a real battle
“169 Tory MPs and 385 Labour MPs would be slightly closer than 1997”
In his lucid, calm and honest opinion piece on the front of the telegraph, Frosty explains firstly his poll has pre election swingback built into it, the 169 seats dependent on the built in swingback, without it was a little over 100 Tory seats, and secondly the poll contains zero tactical voting, hence Mogg beats Labour by 1% with a sizeable Lib Dem vote voting Lib Dem.
Labour only getting 36% might not be that far off, in my opinion Lab and Con may not got more than 75% of the votes - the Con collapse is naturally put down to their unpopularity, but it might also owe to the same reason Lab don’t get 40%, both main parties unpopular, voters happy to vote for minor parties this time.
In terms of a political bet, I think it will be value to bet right now that Labour don’t get 40% in this election.
The poll also found, of voters who say they have switched from Con to Lab, they still trust Conservatives more on the economy.
Still so many moving parts, ifs and maybe’s, still a long way to go.
Does anyone remember The Independent Group? Feels like a decade ago
It simultaneously feels like yesterday and 10 years ago at the same time, to me anyway.
Mark Kermode once asked: what's the oldest film you think of as "new". I'm not saying which one it is for me (because it's incredibly dating) but it's amazing how time passes. Five years ago Boris Johnson dominated politics, pandemic meant AIDS, mortgage rates were under 2%, and Ukraine was referred to "The Ukraine". Everything changes
"Who will pay the price for the Post Office scandal? In Westminster, none of the main parties are innocent, but Ed Davey is in the greatest danger. By Freddie Hayward"
A majority of Republican primary voters in CBS News polling — 81% — said that they agreed with President Trump's statement that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country," and 47% of voters overall said they agreed with it. https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1746588204042502150
Comments
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-how-will-constituency-vote-tool/
https://thehill.com/elections/4408071-almost-half-of-haley-supporters-say-they-would-vote-for-biden-over-trump-iowa-poll/
Time is so very very short.
And we are asleep at the wheel.
https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1746589423251403236
Fabian Hoffmann
@FRHoffmann1
I am with the Eastern European states that we have at best 2-3 years from today to re-establish a credible deterrence posture vis-à-vis Russia. Otherwise, we run the grave risk that Russia is going to challenge us, sooner rather than later. 16/20
As Cold War historians know, the balance of military power is not deterministic of outcomes in risk-taking competitions. Instead, they are often determined by the balance of resolve; i.e., the relative willingness to remain steadfast even as risks are increasing. 12/20
We must also have a serious discussion not only about how to deter a war with 🇷🇺 but also about how to fight one.
Could be crucial.
I wouldn't bet much on that.
They asked 13 times to be considered for participation but the General Committee of the General Assembly refused to include it on the agenda due to PRC’s opposition
In 2007 they made a formal application for membership but this was rejected by the legal office before even being considered by the secretary general.
As Ban Ki-Moon put it The position of the United Nations is that the People's Republic of China is representing the whole of China as the sole and legitimate representative Government of China. The decision until now about the wish of the people in Taiwan to join the United Nations has been decided on that basis. The resolution (General Assembly Resolution 2758) that you just mentioned is clearly mentioning that the Government of China is the sole and legitimate Government and the position of the United Nations is that Taiwan is part of China.
So I guess a 2 state solution is ok when it’s Israel and not ok when it is a close ally of the US?
Rishi played key role removing @BorisJohnson but country must come first.
Time to reach out to only Tory to win London mayoral election twice and 80 seat majority.
Get Boris into a seat and out campaigning or consign us to socialism forevermore.
Small print tomorrow, it seems.
More details from us on this tomorrow, including seat shares. For now:
- Yes, new boundaries 🗺️
- Yes, really, 14,000 interviews 📋
- Yes, I’m confident this is the best possible model of vote intention, given our data, at this time 🤓
Look forward to hearing all your thoughts!
https://twitter.com/PME_Politics/status/1746650363548053683
As for a hung Parliament without Reform, that’s not the MRP saying that, it’s the Telegraph reallocating all Reform votes to the Tories.
As I am not, I half hope the Tories do lurch further to the right, it can only increase their chances of consigning themselves to the bin of history.
Oh I see, found the echo.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S075333222301853X
Ha, ha, ha. More ha, ha.
Sanity check time me thinks.
How many of the people endorsing Trump today are just doing that to avoid a visit from "seal team 6" if by some stretch Trump wins the immunity case?
https://twitter.com/cscnme/status/1745657081179304053
Must say, enjoyed HIS diaries damn sight more than Alistair Campbell's!
Then my local GP surgery berated me for not taking my covid jab up.
So it doesn't matter. He red carded himself.
So Nick might know something, just because he's rubbing shoulders with somebody who knows something about it.
AND best to you and yours!
I think the answer is yes.
But not enough to save the day from the socialist imperium of Starmer and Reeves.
What dazzling new insights does the old bluffer have to offer ?
I think they could even do worse.
But of course you can’t run both sides of the experiment anyway.
But its thesis isn’t absurd, even if you think it unlikely. European defence ministers need to consider this sort of stuff.
In this thread, I will explain why we are* much closer to war with 🇷🇺 than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis 🇷🇺. Here's why 👇 1/20
https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1746589423251403236
*That should say “might be”.
It is a tragedy in the shakespeare sense.
GroupParty and maximise Con chances. It might work, it might not: we will see.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isle_of_Wight_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1980s
I remember CHB posting in 2019 about how Johnson would eventually come unstuck and wouldn't last. This was laughed at, even when CHB was saying about the high water mark during the ridiculous "decade in power" posts we had here at the time.
Sunak must go. And go now.
Fortunately there is a visionary waiting in the wings.
Mary Elizabeth
T
R
U
S
S
Step forward.
Your time has come.
Virginia county admits election tally in 2020 shorted Joe Biden
https://wtop.com/prince-william-county/2024/01/virginia-county-admits-election-tally-in-2020-shorted-joe-biden/
… The case against White is the only criminal prosecution brought thus far by a special Election Integrity Unit that Miyares formed in 2022. Miyares’ office said the unit was created in part to fulfill a campaign promise “because Virginians expressed concerns to him about our elections as he traveled across the Commonwealth.” Critics, including the NAACP, said the unit was formed to pander to election deniers…
When you’re elected conservative but govern leftist, you deserve electoral oblivion
https://x.com/douglascarswell/status/1746659009791197439?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
The results of this poll are stunningly awful. Whatever the strategy is – and it is often hard to discern one – it isn’t working
David Frost"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/david-frost-election-poll-tories-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer/
architects.
And the Dallas Cowboys.
Labour has "radically" changed its scripts for activists to use on the doorstep, and our "field operation now really informs our comms". General secretary David Evans explains how and why:
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/01/14/iowa-caucus/hogan-endorses-haley-00135517
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/14/rfk-jr-defends-wiretap-mlk-00135543
Constituency lookup: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-how-will-constituency-vote-tool/
https://twitter.com/WUTangKids/status/1746698302446342581
In his lucid, calm and honest opinion piece on the front of the telegraph, Frosty explains firstly his poll has pre election swingback built into it, the 169 seats dependent on the built in swingback, without it was a little over 100 Tory seats, and secondly the poll contains zero tactical voting, hence Mogg beats Labour by 1% with a sizeable Lib Dem vote voting Lib Dem.
Labour only getting 36% might not be that far off, in my opinion Lab and Con may not got more than 75% of the votes - the Con collapse is naturally put down to their unpopularity, but it might also owe to the same reason Lab don’t get 40%, both main parties unpopular, voters happy to vote for minor parties this time.
In terms of a political bet, I think it will be value to bet right now that Labour don’t get 40% in this election.
The poll also found, of voters who say they have switched from Con to Lab, they still trust Conservatives more on the economy.
Still so many moving parts, ifs and maybe’s, still a long way to go.
In Westminster, none of the main parties are innocent, but Ed Davey is in the greatest danger.
By Freddie Hayward"
https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-report/2024/01/who-will-pay-the-price-for-the-post-office-scandal
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1746588204042502150
The US is in a very dark place.
https://twitter.com/sammorril/status/1746663919454658847