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Can Nigel Farage make it eight in a row? – politicalbetting.com
Can Nigel Farage make it eight in a row? – politicalbetting.com
?Exclusive: A new poll commissioned by Arron Banks suggests that Farage would win were he to stand in Douglas Carswell's old seat of ClactonFarage told me: "This poll does make me consider getting back on the pitch far more seriously than ever before”https://t.co/zq1q0eWgnr
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So. FPT
Just had a vivid memory of me age 23, wearing sort of Hitler Youth black shorts - with braces - inhabiting a £2 a night hostel on the wild bank of the Nile at Luxor, a hostel which was actually part of some ancient temple, so you woke up in the morning and stared at Anubis staring back at you. Superb
I was with three friends and we were all equally insane and we spent every day chasing down opium until we found a good supplier, and that kept us zonked for a week, opiated to fuck, the only problem was that the hostel owner/opium dealer really really wanted to have gay sex with my very handsome best friend Trevor, and, failing that, me (less handsome but still pretty enough, back then)
So we had to spend the whole time begging him to sell us more opium while at the same time coming up with excuses why we would not let him sodomise us (or bugger him, I don’t know if he batted or bowled)
THAT, my PB friends, is a true story
I HAVE FOUND THE HOTEL
It still exists, It is now called “Medinet Habu Eco Lodge”
https://www.tripadvisor.co.uk/Hotel_Review-g294205-d23791362-Reviews-Habu_Hotel_Ecolodge-Luxor_Nile_River_Valley.html
Remember though, there is a difference between the Nigel being leader and him running for a seat. He is perfectly likely to become leader, work to smash your lot into oblivion and not seek election himself...
A forward in the box gets wrestled to the ground and his foot goes in front of the defender. The ball does not come anywhere near either of them but is centred and then superbly hit into the corner. Just ridiculous.
So a Faragae is multiple Farages
Which sounds even more unpleasant.
An interesting little video pointing out some of Trumps strange historic links in New York, including Roger Stone - a political fixer going back to Nixon Times, who was sentenced to 40 months in prison for various offences - witness tampering, making false statements to congress etc.
Never went to prison, as he was pardoned by President Trump.
Not sure how much weight to give this, but an absorbing rabbit hole.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mvGxF7Jw4M
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mT76yYdYac4
“The owners, Tracey and Mohammad, go above and beyond to ensure the best stay possible”
Which is fair but it omits the crucial bit, “in particular, if you wish to purchase raw opium on a daily basis, Mohammad only needs to bum the most beautiful male in your holiday group, Breakfasts are excellent and fresh”
The surprise is that his more extreme comments on here are tolerated, rather than moderated.
Whether that person leads the Tories, or is an independent force, is difficult to say.
Also, whether that person is Farage or not is a tricky one to answer. In some ways, Farage has the baggage that another may not. But he does have the name recognition.
https://www.theguardian.com/food/2024/jan/14/egg-bacon-and-a-ghormeh-sabzi-the-uks-greasy-spoons-are-redoing-their-menus
You just can’t let it go, can you?
And what exactly is it I’ve said that is so extreme now? That I once wore shorts that resembled Hitler Youth Attire? is that bannable, wearing clothes that might look a tad fash in a lowlight?
NF could then launch a Nigelnacht leadership bid.
..it is only now that the conscience of Westminster has been sufficiently stirred for the government to propose remedies. And only after the intense public outrage generated by the compelling ITV drama, Mr Bates vs The Post Office.
A mounting pile of evidence suggests the government-owned organisation and its corporate collaborator sought to conceal their own blunders to protect their brands, profits and the reputations of senior executives at the expense of innocent people.
Having let this go on for so long, politicians from Rishi Sunak downwards are falling over each other to try to blag a bogus halo by hailing the campaign led by Mr Bates and declaring that he deserves a knighthood. There’s less enthusiasm at Westminster for acknowledging a collective failure to wake up to this scandal much earlier.
An unusual feature of this scandal is that its taint is on more than one party. This is a large part of the explanation for why none was previously keen to give it the attention and profile that it deserved. Over the past 25 years, there have been 15 business secretaries, one Lib Dem, six Labour and eight Conservative. Politicians from all three parties have held ministerial responsibility for postal affairs. Tories chucking stones are doing so from glass houses.
The government expects a mass exoneration to take the heat out of public anger, but justice will not be properly done until there is condign punishment of all those responsible for inflicting devastating cruelty and hardship on so many innocent people. They endured it for so long because politicians who should have been alert to what was going on were asleep at the wheel of state.
The GOP shows how the rise of the hard right looks different in a FPTP system.
@MarqueeMark commandeered the last thread beautifully. He achieved a parallel conversation and interesting diversion on the state of comedy with steely guile.
Two tips for you: it wasn't all about him and who these days is interested in the procurement of class A drugs? The accomplishment of which is neither big nor clever.
I think you desperately WANT to believe. There is a difference
I think the fact they elected a kipper against a Conservative twice means Reform/Farage will have enough name recognition to be honest. Most people just think they’re all ‘The Farage Party’. Giles Watling MP aka the vicar who married Aveline in Carla Lane’s Bread, was defeated candidate by Carswell twice, and has been a bit of a face there for decades and probably has more loyal vote than most Tories though
I actually campaigned for Carswell in the By Election; there are (were) two very different parts of the constituency. Lovely middle class Frinton, and down at heel Clacton ft further down at heel Jaywick, with its mobile homes & unkept roads. I canvassed there with Suzanne Evans who might have been UKIP leader for a while I think. Knocking on one chalet front door, I was confronted by an unemployed bloke from Barking, who had an aggressive looking dog. For some reason I sat down and had a chat with him and his Dad, whilst they were drinking cans of beer. He said they normally voted National Front, so I had to say “er well UKIP are the toughest on immigration” whilst trying to shimmy towards the exit. They had a massive speaker outside the place which was blaring out Eminem. Suzanne wasn’t impressed by that at all
Posh Frinton wasn’t so keen on UKIP as you might expect. They loved ‘Dougie’ but thought he’d betrayed them by leaving the Tories
Anyway, TLDR the rest; 4/1 seems a decent bet. If Farage stands in the next GE, it will be somewhere he is better than 20% chance to win. He looks like he fancies standing, the conditions seem good for him really.
I suppose the maths is
% chance he will stand multiplied by % chance he will win
If he’s 75/25 to stand he’d need to be 3/1 to win the seat for it to be bad value. If he chose Clacton, my childhood holiday destination, he’d probably be 6/4ish wouldn’t he?
It proudly listed one item : "Chef's special - CHIPS".
The more interesting aspect of the poll are the numbers without Farage.
Conservatives are losing nearly half their vote which we've seen in other previously safe Conservative seats at by-elections. In this instance, Labour is picking up about 40% of this with Reform getting the rest which isn't far off the split of the 2019 Conservative vote recorded in polls.
The notional swing from Conservative to Labour in Clacton, the fifth safest Conservative seat, is 24.5% suggesting (and there's some evidence) the swing against the Conservatives is greater in its core seats rather than the marginals (which may be a glimmer of hope or it may not).
If you apply a 24.5% swing evenly, the Conservatives end up with 15 seats so that's just for fun but currently we are looking at some huge swings though given the size of the Conservative majority in their safest seats not enough for these seats to change hands.
Les boys do cabaret
Les boys are glad to be gay
They're not afraid now
A disco bar in Germany
Les boys are glad to be
Upon parade now
Les boys got leather straps
Les boys got SS caps
But they got no gun now
Get dressed up get a little risqué
Got to do a little s & m these days
It's all in fun now
We always were, reply the PM4PM Stans.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frederik_X
Football: you're a bloody idiot.
Its ridiculous. Because they did. Hugo Boss knew what he was doing - as did Hitler and Goebbels. As did everyone since the year dot
Men look good in military uniforms - it’s why the royals crave them despite doing 2 weeks in the reserves. And the Nazi uniforms were particularly good - tho not the best
Some of the Italian uniforms from WW1 were just magnificent
Small swings in places where a small swing loses and big swings where a big swing is necessary.
It might make for a friendlier battleground in 2028/9, but who cares about the distant future?
I guess we must both be content with our stations in PB life
Have now finished over 4,000 lines of moth records on my spreadsheet for 2023. I think steering the conversation on this thread towards moths might be a greater challenge.
Although reminiscences of fash knickerbockers with braces is probably preferable to bigging up the ego of Nigel Farage.
The difference this time is that there was huge enthusiasm for SNP in 2015 whereas there really isn't for LAB this time.
Re: VAR. Correct decision.
Up until then we were unbeatable. After that…. Decline
Perhaps we could conflate the conversations and put Farage in an SS uniform in Frinton-on-Sea. That would confuse the over 70 voting contingent of North Essex.
I wish I could find an image of the Italian uniform I’m recalling. It was a futurist regiment from the White War
They had feathers in their caps. Looked brilliant. Utterly impractical
Well.
Tarkowski went in strongly. No foul. Throw in given. Several players start pushing and shoving.
Tarkowski walked away.
Result. A Villa player and Tarkowski booked. Play re-starts with a throw in.
Booked for not committing a foul, nor joining in the aftermath.
(Allegedly)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-67968112
Incidentally, not quite sure what the mot just for a gathering of drag queens ought to be, but can't help thinking it shouldn't be 'convention'.
To men it is obvious. Suddenly you look smarter and harder and part of an army, ready to fight, testosterone surging, buttons polished and boots shining: the image of bravery
But the best male military uniforms appeal to women as well. Emphasising broad shoulders and narrow waist. The classic male inverted triangle
It is the equivalent - but more important, I’d say - of the way some men get turned on by nurses uniforms
Incidentally Scottish military uniforms are some of the best. I believe Jean Cocteau (IIRC) wrote a whole essay about his homoerotic swoon when he saw the Cameron Highlanders transporting to WW1 in full kilt and sporran
She talks the culture war talk, but disappears like the Cheshire Cat when a real scandal shows up.
Similar to that but even more insane and also somewhat more chic
I saw them in the (really good) Italian museum of the great war in Rovereto
I’d put much of the MAGA right of the Republicans in the hard right (but Trump himself? It always seems like he cosplays hard/far right), Poland’s PiS, Le Pen’s RN, UKIP and some parts of Refuk, Matt Goodwin, and a handful of Tory MPs including Braverman.
Hard right to me is more than populism. It’s more ideological. But less fashy than far right.
He’s trumpite. He doesn’t really have much philosophy other than what gets him elected with lots of populism and a dash of xenophobia and a deal making business agenda, treating America as a company
Defining him kinda OVER-complicates him