Is this example of ill wind blowing a bit of good, at least for the North Wales tourism and hospitality sector?
OR is it yet more bad news, as more and more eager yet clueless outlanders, clog the highways and byways from Beddgelert to Craig-y-Don and back, seeking to buy stamps in sub-postoffices defunct since before the Profumo Scandal, let alone the PO Scandal?
We welcome all holiday makers to North Wales as our economy is very dependent on the revenue
Though they would need a mortgage for a book of first class stamps !!!!!!!
Mr Drakeford is making the slow food movement a whole life experience .
Motohoons have mainly gone to Scotland, North Lincolnshire or North Yorkshire !
Frank Luntz believes that Donald Trump will be the next US President. However did it come to this?
In some ways I find the Republican situation easier to understand than the Democrat one. Like it or not Trump has captured the imagination of a substantial minority of the US public. That's it and there's no point trying to rationalise it. But what explains the clinging to Biden on the other side? Nearly 82 years old and looking not a day younger, poor poll ratings and a public that would like him to stand down. And yet there is no enthusiasm to ditch him.
The Democrats' problem is VP Harris. If Biden goes, they either run her (and she's even less popular than Biden) or they ditch her (in which case there will be an outcry
Incumbents have been challenged before, no?
Joe Biden is being challenged for 2024 Democratic nomination by Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips.
Both are on the New Hampshire presidential primary ballot this year - unlike Joe who is a write-in candidate.
AND all three are on ballot for upcoming March 2024 Washington State presidential primary.
The trouble is that Taiwan pulls the rug from under the feet of those who praise the 'success' of communist China. A bit like a free democratic Ukraine being a permanent sore for a chauvinistic authoritarian Russia.
It is hard to see peaceful co-existence given the ideological differences.
And yet they've managed 75 years of it.
Due to outside support for Taiwan and the cost/risk to China of invading. Please be under no illusions.
Mao would have finished Formosa off in 1949/1950, had he been able to do so.
Prevented mostly by the Korean War, which shored up US support for Taiwan, and diverted the Red Army.
One reason why, when the People's Republic intervened - to put it mildly - in the Korean War, the troops it fielded against UN/US/UK/etc. forces were"volunteers" and NOT officially part of the People's Liberation Army.
Many were late defections from either KMT forces or warlords. Hence human wave attacks, as the Communists were not particularly wanting them to return.
Believe it was more like, human wave attacks had worked in China. Not all the time, but plenty of times.
In Korea, Chinese had considerable success at start of their intervention in late 1950 in hammering UN forces on the western side of peninsula, resulting in mass bug-outs by US Army (including my great-uncle).
On eastern side, Chinese greatly outnumbered UN, mostly USMC troops with some Royal Marines, but were at disadvantage due to sub-zero weather; also the Marines (including my father) lacked trucks so less mobile, thus forced to dig in rather than bug out.
And while Marines lacked mobility, they DID have the firepower, training and leadership to deal with human wave attacks.
According to my Daddy Dearest, the Marines (USMC & RN) would be dug in, in holes basted in the frozen ground if nothing else was available. Typically the Chinese would attack just before dawn, at false dawn. Accompanies by trumpets, bugles, yells, throwing stick grenades, and firing burp-guns (prized by marines) and other weapons.
Marine orders were simple, and effective: 1) stay in you hole; and 2) shoot anybody running around outside, until you got further orders.
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
Slightly on topic. Taiwan is a fascinating place. Plenty go for business, but almost nobody for pleasure. It's got rainforest. The highest mountain east of the Himalayas. Beaches. Ultra modern cities and crookbacked women in conical hats transplanting rice. Natural hot springs. Loads of history too. Weather isn't great, mind.
I watch an embarrassing amount of cookery shows (both TV and YT) and I've still yet to happen on someone visiting Taiwan. I'm not sure if it's just rubbish or if there is sensitivity towards the Chinese market. I'm guessing the latter though.
You should watch Eat Drink Man Woman. Romantic comedy set in Taiwan involving lots of cooking.
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
You could not make it up , worst country in the developed world for drugs and the FM has a drug dealer in the family, kind of sums up how Scotland is being run just now. It is like a banana republic.
Slightly on topic. Taiwan is a fascinating place. Plenty go for business, but almost nobody for pleasure. It's got rainforest. The highest mountain east of the Himalayas. Beaches. Ultra modern cities and crookbacked women in conical hats transplanting rice. Natural hot springs. Loads of history too. Weather isn't great, mind.
I watch an embarrassing amount of cookery shows (both TV and YT) and I've still yet to happen on someone visiting Taiwan. I'm not sure if it's just rubbish or if there is sensitivity towards the Chinese market. I'm guessing the latter though.
You should watch Eat Drink Man Woman. Romantic comedy set in Taiwan involving lots of cooking.
@Casino_Royale I am very concerned by your final sentence. The USA is far from perfect but it's a free democracy and the only serious Western power checking the expansionism of repressive autocracies in Russia, Iran and China in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan respectively. And we've seen what happens to people that fall under its wing.
I hope you revisit your view.
Thanks for a considered and thoughtful response. I am by no means certain in my view and am not by any means lauding China. Instead, I am conveying a deeply pessimistic outlook whereby a Trump win (or someone of his ilk) means that the role that USA currently plays checking the expansionism of autocracies is lost. And even if not Trump, when I see how blindly partisan USA politics is I find it hard to imagine them continuing to be a free democracy over the next 20 years. I fervently hope I am wrong because I want democracy to win out.
One of the big problems as I see it is that the opponents of the USA have such an open goal to aim at. US policy in Central and South America; its role in toppling leftist democracies in Africa and supporting autocrats in their place; it’s blunderous attempts to root out terrorism in Afghanistan; its blatant attempt to control oil fields in Iraq. All give fodder to those who want to cosy up to Russia and China in smaller countries.
Lastly I am not sure that we can speak of China in the same tone as we do of Russia and Iran. Taiwan, for example; it is clearly Chinese, just a different brand of Chinese politics from the revolutionary mainland. China invading Taiwan, to a neutral observer, is nothing like the USA invading Iraq or staging a coup in Tanzania, for example. Nor is it like Iran funding terror groups, nor again is it like Russia invading Ukraine although I can see this is a more subtle distinction.
Please don’t misunderstand me-I am not arguing for a minute that China invading Taiwan would be a good thing, simply that I don’t think it would be worse than what the USA did in Iraq.
I am deeply concerned about the future and looking for the least worst option. Perhaps selfishly, of the options available I feel Chinese global dominance is least likely to end up with me or one of my kids being conscripted into a global war. To restate once more - if USA emerges from its current morass still a functioning but imperfect democracy, then let’s stick with them.
The USA withdrew from Iraq; its objective was not annexation. China, Russia and Iran use their muscle to intimidate, silence, bully, oppress or seek revenge against anyone they like, without any scruples or justice.
If our primary goal is peace and avoiding any sort of conflict at all costs then might will make right, and we will have to suffer what we must.
Otherwise, we will have to stand up to it.
Again, I'm just not sure that China does as you say (I fully agree Russia and Iran do). Perhaps that is a naive statement - happy to be shown evidence otherwise (I'm not ignoring the Uighurs - along with what was done to Tibet what China is doing to them is pretty horrific - I just think this smacks more of internal oppression than threatening the rest of the world).
I guess to turn the question around, is China interfering outside its borders in the same or worse way than the USA did/does in Iraq or Central America? Or perhaps they will do this in future if not checked?
What I see instead from China is a soft power advance that is pretty scary in its own way, but seems to involve pumping lots of resources into many states in e.g. Africa, rather than using the CIA, the Revolutionary Guard or the Wagner Group to kill the right people to destablise things.
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
You could not make it up , worst country in the developed world for drugs and the FM has a drug dealer in the family, kind of sums up how Scotland is being run just now. It is like a banana republic.
Could be some questions about her role at Dundee City Council.
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
You could not make it up , worst country in the developed world for drugs and the FM has a drug dealer in the family, kind of sums up how Scotland is being run just now. It is like a banana republic.
Taiwan, beyond its other attractions, is great storehouse of Chinese antiquities, of kind that the iconoclasts of the Cultural Revolution smashed, bashed and destroyed in "Mainland" China.
Not that I know anything beyond that, but reckon dixiedean does.
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
You could not make it up , worst country in the developed world for drugs and the FM has a drug dealer in the family, kind of sums up how Scotland is being run just now. It is like a banana republic.
Still don’t understand why he is responsible for his sister marrying a scumbag.
If he had used his position to help said scumbag… but there’s no report of that.
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
You could not make it up , worst country in the developed world for drugs and the FM has a drug dealer in the family, kind of sums up how Scotland is being run just now. It is like a banana republic.
Could be some questions about her role at Dundee City Council.
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
You could not make it up , worst country in the developed world for drugs and the FM has a drug dealer in the family, kind of sums up how Scotland is being run just now. It is like a banana republic.
Still don’t understand why he is responsible for his sister marrying a scumbag.
If he had used his position to help said scumbag… but there’s no report of that.
By August 1948, however, the Communists' victories caused the British government to begin preparing for a Communist takeover of the country. It kept open consulates in CCP-controlled areas and rejected the Nationalists' requests that British citizens assist in the defence of Shanghai.
By December, the government concluded that although British property in China would likely be nationalised, British traders would benefit in the long run from a stable, industrialising Communist China.
Retaining Hong Kong was especially important; although the CCP promised to not interfere with its rule, Britain reinforced the Hong Kong Garrison during 1949.
When the victorious Communist government declared on 1 October 1949 that it would exchange diplomats with any country that ended relations with the Nationalists, Britain—after discussions with other Commonwealth members and European countries—formally recognised the People's Republic of China in January 1950.
I always had a lurking fear that the UK's actions might not have been entirely correct. But now I'm not in any doubt.
Seriously, what else could we have done at the time?
Well, I wasn't alive then and I haven't made a special study of it. I do seem to remember a fair amount of rhetoric had been flying around a few years earlier about standing up for the rights of small countries. Though admittedly that had already gone by the board where Finland was concerned.
It was complicated by Chiang Kai-shek being a dangerous loose cannon, obsessed with military adventures outside of Taiwan (and being a brutal, and relatively incompetent autocrat).
Having ‘lost’ China, and confronting two communist powers in south east Asia, US pragmatism overcame whatever principle might have been involved.
Though Truman might have been better of paying more attention to Formosa, and less to propping up the French colonialists in Vietnam.
"Would you believe it?" is an expression you only ever here on snooker commentary these days....
Can't watch it. O'Sullivan's rabble rousing Cockney geezer hooligans are spoiling the occasion. It's a game played in silence. One would be chucked out of the local snooker hall for that level of hullabaloo, yet drunken revelry seems fine at Ally Pally.
It gets worse though. That ****tard Rob Walker will be talking utter gibberish when it is all over.
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
You could not make it up , worst country in the developed world for drugs and the FM has a drug dealer in the family, kind of sums up how Scotland is being run just now. It is like a banana republic.
Hang on - charged, not convicted.
Idiot brothers-in-law, brothers, sisters, cousins, children, etc., etc. hardly novel in the Wide World of Politics. Just ask Roger Clinton . . . or Hillary Clinton.
(Did I leave out Hunter Biden? Hell yes!)
Situation of hapless First Minister of Scotland is so dire, that story about his druggie relation may actually help him.
> Helps make him relatable to many Scots, with similar situations in their own families. > Might get him a wee bit (emphasis on diminutive) of sympathy vote > Certain distracts somewhat (ditto) from the other SNP scandals, problems, record and other baggage.
Frank Luntz believes that Donald Trump will be the next US President. However did it come to this?
In some ways I find the Republican situation easier to understand than the Democrat one. Like it or not Trump has captured the imagination of a substantial minority of the US public. That's it and there's no point trying to rationalise it. But what explains the clinging to Biden on the other side? Nearly 82 years old and looking not a day younger, poor poll ratings and a public that would like him to stand down. And yet there is no enthusiasm to ditch him.
The Democrats' problem is VP Harris. If Biden goes, they either run her (and she's even less popular than Biden) or they ditch her (in which case there will be an outcry
Incumbents have been challenged before, no?
Usually when they’ve fucked up as president, though.
Jeremy Hunt among 11 Cabinet ministers predicted to lose seats if election held today
Plus: three more Tory big beasts who could go as more than half the seats won in 2019 could be lost, according to YouGov poll
Jeremy Hunt would be among 11 Cabinet ministers to lose their seats if Rishi Sunak went to the country now, the biggest opinion poll since 2019 has revealed.
Mr Hunt, whose current South West Surrey constituency will cease to exist because of boundary changes, would lose to the Liberal Democrats in his new seat, the poll suggests.
He would become the first Chancellor to lose their seat at an election – but he would not be alone. Other Cabinet ministers are predicted to lose their seats, along with Tory grandees including Sir Iain Duncan Smith, a former party leader.
In all, more than half the seats won under Boris Johnson’s leadership at the 2019 general election would be lost if the election was held now, according to YouGov.
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
You could not make it up , worst country in the developed world for drugs and the FM has a drug dealer in the family, kind of sums up how Scotland is being run just now. It is like a banana republic.
Hang on - charged, not convicted.
Idiot brothers-in-law, brothers, sisters, cousins, children, etc., etc. hardly novel in the Wide World of Politics. Just ask Roger Clinton . . . or Hillary Clinton.
(Did I leave out Hunter Biden? Hell yes!)
Situation of hapless First Minister of Scotland is so dire, that story about his druggie relation may actually help him.
> Helps make him relatable to many Scots, with similar situations in their own families. > Might get him a wee bit (emphasis on diminutive) of sympathy vote > Certain distracts somewhat (ditto) from the other SNP scandals, problems, record and other baggage.
Still doesn't allow anyone to jump to conclusions yet. Active case now, too.
By August 1948, however, the Communists' victories caused the British government to begin preparing for a Communist takeover of the country. It kept open consulates in CCP-controlled areas and rejected the Nationalists' requests that British citizens assist in the defence of Shanghai.
By December, the government concluded that although British property in China would likely be nationalised, British traders would benefit in the long run from a stable, industrialising Communist China.
Retaining Hong Kong was especially important; although the CCP promised to not interfere with its rule, Britain reinforced the Hong Kong Garrison during 1949.
When the victorious Communist government declared on 1 October 1949 that it would exchange diplomats with any country that ended relations with the Nationalists, Britain—after discussions with other Commonwealth members and European countries—formally recognised the People's Republic of China in January 1950.
I always had a lurking fear that the UK's actions might not have been entirely correct. But now I'm not in any doubt.
Seriously, what else could we have done at the time?
Well, I wasn't alive then and I haven't made a special study of it. I do seem to remember a fair amount of rhetoric had been flying around a few years earlier about standing up for the rights of small countries. Though admittedly that had already gone by the board where Finland was concerned.
It was complicated by Chiang Kai-shek being a dangerous loose cannon, obsessed with military adventures outside of Taiwan (and being a brutal, and relatively incompetent autocrat).
Having ‘lost’ China, and confronting two communist powers in south east Asia, US pragmatism overcame whatever principle might have been involved.
Though Truman might have been better of paying more attention to Formosa, and less to propping up the French colonialists in Vietnam.
One omission by Truman administration, was when Sec. of State Dean Acheson outlined US security zone in East Asia that included Japan, Philippines and Taiwan . . . but NOT South Korea.
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
You could not make it up , worst country in the developed world for drugs and the FM has a drug dealer in the family, kind of sums up how Scotland is being run just now. It is like a banana republic.
Hang on - charged, not convicted.
Idiot brothers-in-law, brothers, sisters, cousins, children, etc., etc. hardly novel in the Wide World of Politics. Just ask Roger Clinton . . . or Hillary Clinton.
(Did I leave out Hunter Biden? Hell yes!)
Situation of hapless First Minister of Scotland is so dire, that story about his druggie relation may actually help him.
> Helps make him relatable to many Scots, with similar situations in their own families. > Might get him a wee bit (emphasis on diminutive) of sympathy vote > Certain distracts somewhat (ditto) from the other SNP scandals, problems, record and other baggage.
Still doesn't allow anyone to jump to conclusions yet. Active case now, too.
The dodgy politicians relative is such a trope that they added a couple into The West Wing series.
Yougov large poll in the Telegraph. Lists expected constituency wins and suggests Tories on 169 seats and Labour on 385. Suggests Labour will do well in Scotland winning every seat in Glasgow off the SNP
Does this link work: www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
Yougov large poll in the Telegraph. Lists expected constituency wins and suggests Tories on 169 seats and Labour on 385. Suggests Labour will do well in Scotland winning every seat in Glasgow off the SNP
Does this link work: www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
Yougov large poll in the Telegraph. Lists expected constituency wins and suggests Tories on 169 seats and Labour on 385. Suggests Labour will do well in Scotland winning every seat in Glasgow off the SNP
Does this link work: www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
All roasters, how did that clown ever get to be ruining the country
Why would he be responsible for the actions of his brother in law?
Just another nail in the clown's coffin, his wife is desperately shilling to get her family into the country, Useless is wrecking the place with the SNP and their bunch of grifters. He is responsible for lots of things for sure but for sure not being able to run a bath never mind a country. They make the Tories look honest
You could not make it up , worst country in the developed world for drugs and the FM has a drug dealer in the family, kind of sums up how Scotland is being run just now. It is like a banana republic.
Hang on - charged, not convicted.
Idiot brothers-in-law, brothers, sisters, cousins, children, etc., etc. hardly novel in the Wide World of Politics. Just ask Roger Clinton . . . or Hillary Clinton.
(Did I leave out Hunter Biden? Hell yes!)
Situation of hapless First Minister of Scotland is so dire, that story about his druggie relation may actually help him.
> Helps make him relatable to many Scots, with similar situations in their own families. > Might get him a wee bit (emphasis on diminutive) of sympathy vote > Certain distracts somewhat (ditto) from the other SNP scandals, problems, record and other baggage.
Still doesn't allow anyone to jump to conclusions yet. Active case now, too.
The dodgy politicians relative is such a trope that they added a couple into The West Wing series.
IIRC Thomas Jefferson had some close relations considered beyond the pale by his contemporaries?
And Abe Lincoln had not one, not two, but three (half) brothers-in-law serving in the Confederate Army.
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
The trouble is that Taiwan pulls the rug from under the feet of those who praise the 'success' of communist China. A bit like a free democratic Ukraine being a permanent sore for a chauvinistic authoritarian Russia.
It is hard to see peaceful co-existence given the ideological differences.
And yet they've managed 75 years of it.
Due to outside support for Taiwan and the cost/risk to China of invading. Please be under no illusions.
Mao would have finished Formosa off in 1949/1950, had he been able to do so.
Prevented mostly by the Korean War, which shored up US support for Taiwan, and diverted the Red Army.
One reason why, when the People's Republic intervened - to put it mildly - in the Korean War, the troops it fielded against UN/US/UK/etc. forces were"volunteers" and NOT officially part of the People's Liberation Army.
Many were late defections from either KMT forces or warlords. Hence human wave attacks, as the Communists were not particularly wanting them to return.
Believe it was more like, human wave attacks had worked in China. Not all the time, but plenty of times.
In Korea, Chinese had considerable success at start of their intervention in late 1950 in hammering UN forces on the western side of peninsula, resulting in mass bug-outs by US Army (including my great-uncle).
On eastern side, Chinese greatly outnumbered UN, mostly USMC troops with some Royal Marines, but were at disadvantage due to sub-zero weather; also the Marines (including my father) lacked trucks so less mobile, thus forced to dig in rather than bug out.
And while Marines lacked mobility, they DID have the firepower, training and leadership to deal with human wave attacks.
According to my Daddy Dearest, the Marines (USMC & RN) would be dug in, in holes basted in the frozen ground if nothing else was available. Typically the Chinese would attack just before dawn, at false dawn. Accompanies by trumpets, bugles, yells, throwing stick grenades, and firing burp-guns (prized by marines) and other weapons.
Marine orders were simple, and effective: 1) stay in you hole; and 2) shoot anybody running around outside, until you got further orders.
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
Smaller majority than most recent polls suggest.
EDIT: actual vote share for Labour 36%. Way lower than other pollsters. Seems off.
Yougov large poll in the Telegraph. Lists expected constituency wins and suggests Tories on 169 seats and Labour on 385. Suggests Labour will do well in Scotland winning every seat in Glasgow off the SNP
Does this link work: www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
Worst since 2001, Shirley?
If you offered Rishi and Kier 169-385, they'd probably both be wise to take it.
The trouble is that Taiwan pulls the rug from under the feet of those who praise the 'success' of communist China. A bit like a free democratic Ukraine being a permanent sore for a chauvinistic authoritarian Russia.
It is hard to see peaceful co-existence given the ideological differences.
And yet they've managed 75 years of it.
Due to outside support for Taiwan and the cost/risk to China of invading. Please be under no illusions.
Mao would have finished Formosa off in 1949/1950, had he been able to do so.
Prevented mostly by the Korean War, which shored up US support for Taiwan, and diverted the Red Army.
One reason why, when the People's Republic intervened - to put it mildly - in the Korean War, the troops it fielded against UN/US/UK/etc. forces were"volunteers" and NOT officially part of the People's Liberation Army.
Many were late defections from either KMT forces or warlords. Hence human wave attacks, as the Communists were not particularly wanting them to return.
Believe it was more like, human wave attacks had worked in China. Not all the time, but plenty of times.
In Korea, Chinese had considerable success at start of their intervention in late 1950 in hammering UN forces on the western side of peninsula, resulting in mass bug-outs by US Army (including my great-uncle).
On eastern side, Chinese greatly outnumbered UN, mostly USMC troops with some Royal Marines, but were at disadvantage due to sub-zero weather; also the Marines (including my father) lacked trucks so less mobile, thus forced to dig in rather than bug out.
And while Marines lacked mobility, they DID have the firepower, training and leadership to deal with human wave attacks.
According to my Daddy Dearest, the Marines (USMC & RN) would be dug in, in holes basted in the frozen ground if nothing else was available. Typically the Chinese would attack just before dawn, at false dawn. Accompanies by trumpets, bugles, yells, throwing stick grenades, and firing burp-guns (prized by marines) and other weapons.
Marine orders were simple, and effective: 1) stay in you hole; and 2) shoot anybody running around outside, until you got further orders.
He wasn’t at Choisin Reservoir was he ?
Yes. Though Marines still call it the Frozen Chosen.
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
Smaller majority than most recent polls suggest.
EDIT: actual vote share for Labour 36%. Way lower than other pollsters. Seems off.
Why must it be off? I would trust it quite a lot, MRP was very accurate in the past albeit in 2019 the second one was less accurate than the first one they did.
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
HY has form in analysing this poll with pinpoint accuracy. I await his input.
He had Johnson on a landslide whilst some of us were dismissing his claims as wishful thinking.
Yougov large poll in the Telegraph. Lists expected constituency wins and suggests Tories on 169 seats and Labour on 385. Suggests Labour will do well in Scotland winning every seat in Glasgow off the SNP
Does this link work: www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
HY has form in analysing this poll with pinpoint accuracy. I await his input.
He had Johnson on a landslide whilst some of us were dismissing his claims as wishful thinking.
Yougov large poll in the Telegraph. Lists expected constituency wins and suggests Tories on 169 seats and Labour on 385. Suggests Labour will do well in Scotland winning every seat in Glasgow off the SNP
Does this link work: www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
Lord Frost added that the only way to avoid the likely defeat was “to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more”.
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
Smaller majority than most recent polls suggest.
EDIT: actual vote share for Labour 36%. Way lower than other pollsters. Seems off.
Why must it be off? I would trust it quite a lot, MRP was very accurate in the past albeit in 2019 the second one was less accurate than the first one they did.
Well it might not be, but it’s a huge outlier. Yougov national polls are showing Labour on mid 40s.
I mean, if you're dealing with depression or a whole bunch of other mental illnesses that loads of people are just sucking up, see if you can get help now! The NHS isn't completely broken, they can probably help. A lot of people say it really helped them to see a professional and they wish they'd done it sooner.
But if Labour gets in they'll hire a bunch more people, and also give them more training about spotting and helping suicidal people, so it'll be more likely that you can get help when you need it.
Yougov large poll in the Telegraph. Lists expected constituency wins and suggests Tories on 169 seats and Labour on 385. Suggests Labour will do well in Scotland winning every seat in Glasgow off the SNP
Does this link work: www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
Lord Frost added that the only way to avoid the likely defeat was “to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more”.
Not. A. Clue.
Even he appears to have stopped referencing the benefits of Brexit.
Rishi Sunak showing off his personality around the country
Campaigning with his wife
Is he trying to lose?
Sunak should call an election, then immediately resign. One week conservative leadership contest, honeymoon period for new leader, narrow loss to Labour. Job done.
The trouble is that Taiwan pulls the rug from under the feet of those who praise the 'success' of communist China. A bit like a free democratic Ukraine being a permanent sore for a chauvinistic authoritarian Russia.
It is hard to see peaceful co-existence given the ideological differences.
And yet they've managed 75 years of it.
Due to outside support for Taiwan and the cost/risk to China of invading. Please be under no illusions.
Mao would have finished Formosa off in 1949/1950, had he been able to do so.
Prevented mostly by the Korean War, which shored up US support for Taiwan, and diverted the Red Army.
One reason why, when the People's Republic intervened - to put it mildly - in the Korean War, the troops it fielded against UN/US/UK/etc. forces were"volunteers" and NOT officially part of the People's Liberation Army.
Many were late defections from either KMT forces or warlords. Hence human wave attacks, as the Communists were not particularly wanting them to return.
Believe it was more like, human wave attacks had worked in China. Not all the time, but plenty of times.
In Korea, Chinese had considerable success at start of their intervention in late 1950 in hammering UN forces on the western side of peninsula, resulting in mass bug-outs by US Army (including my great-uncle).
On eastern side, Chinese greatly outnumbered UN, mostly USMC troops with some Royal Marines, but were at disadvantage due to sub-zero weather; also the Marines (including my father) lacked trucks so less mobile, thus forced to dig in rather than bug out.
And while Marines lacked mobility, they DID have the firepower, training and leadership to deal with human wave attacks.
According to my Daddy Dearest, the Marines (USMC & RN) would be dug in, in holes basted in the frozen ground if nothing else was available. Typically the Chinese would attack just before dawn, at false dawn. Accompanies by trumpets, bugles, yells, throwing stick grenades, and firing burp-guns (prized by marines) and other weapons.
Marine orders were simple, and effective: 1) stay in you hole; and 2) shoot anybody running around outside, until you got further orders.
He wasn’t at Choisin Reservoir was he ?
Yes. Though Marines still call it the Frozen Chosen.
Respect. Truly brutal, and a very narrow escape for the UN forces.
Yougov large poll in the Telegraph. Lists expected constituency wins and suggests Tories on 169 seats and Labour on 385. Suggests Labour will do well in Scotland winning every seat in Glasgow off the SNP
Does this link work: www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
Lord Frost added that the only way to avoid the likely defeat was “to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more”.
Not. A. Clue.
This is what you get at the end of 14 years, these people assume they know what people want.
They don't, the truth is that the culture wars and the environment opposition is completely alien to these people. It is about the economy.
Yougov large poll in the Telegraph. Lists expected constituency wins and suggests Tories on 169 seats and Labour on 385. Suggests Labour will do well in Scotland winning every seat in Glasgow off the SNP
Does this link work: www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
Lord Frost added that the only way to avoid the likely defeat was “to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more”.
Not. A. Clue.
Even he appears to have stopped referencing the benefits of Brexit.
Which enjoyed political shelf life similar to "Hang the Kaiser" and "Homes for Heroes" post 1918.
I mean, if you're dealing with depression or a whole bunch of other mental illnesses that loads of people are just sucking up, see if you can get help now! The NHS isn't completely broken, they can probably help. A lot of people say it really helped them to see a professional and they wish they'd done it sooner.
But if Labour gets in they'll hire a bunch more people, and also give them more training about spotting and helping suicidal people, so it'll be more likely that you can get help when you need it.
Given the amount we spend on disability/sickness benefits and lost taxes for people with mental health issues in this country, I bet the investment in additional mental health services would have a good financial return.
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
HY has form in analysing this poll with pinpoint accuracy. I await his input.
He had Johnson on a landslide whilst some of us were dismissing his claims as wishful thinking.
Didn't you predict a 20-seat Tory majority in the PB compy?
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
HY has form in analysing this poll with pinpoint accuracy. I await his input.
He had Johnson on a landslide whilst some of us were dismissing his claims as wishful thinking.
I don't dispute it, though 169 Tory MPs and 385 Labour MPs would be slightly closer than 1997.
Much also depends on whether Sunak can squeeze the Reform UK vote to give Starmer a real battle
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
HY has form in analysing this poll with pinpoint accuracy. I await his input.
He had Johnson on a landslide whilst some of us were dismissing his claims as wishful thinking.
Didn't you predict a 20-seat Tory majority in the PB compy?
I did and I still do. The memory of 1992 remains fresh in my memory and Starmer is unelectable like Kinnock.
Yougov large poll in the Telegraph. Lists expected constituency wins and suggests Tories on 169 seats and Labour on 385. Suggests Labour will do well in Scotland winning every seat in Glasgow off the SNP
Does this link work: www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
Lord Frost added that the only way to avoid the likely defeat was “to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more”.
Not. A. Clue.
Were you still up for John Redwood?
LOL.
If only this is what will happen in reality.
Starmer is not Blair and there will be a swing back once campaign proper begins in early October.
Taiwan, beyond its other attractions, is great storehouse of Chinese antiquities, of kind that the iconoclasts of the Cultural Revolution smashed, bashed and destroyed in "Mainland" China.
Not that I know anything beyond that, but reckon dixiedean does.
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
Reform are only there because of dissatisfaction with the Tories.
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
@Casino_Royale I am very concerned by your final sentence. The USA is far from perfect but it's a free democracy and the only serious Western power checking the expansionism of repressive autocracies in Russia, Iran and China in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Taiwan respectively. And we've seen what happens to people that fall under its wing.
I hope you revisit your view.
Thanks for a considered and thoughtful response. I am by no means certain in my view and am not by any means lauding China. Instead, I am conveying a deeply pessimistic outlook whereby a Trump win (or someone of his ilk) means that the role that USA currently plays checking the expansionism of autocracies is lost. And even if not Trump, when I see how blindly partisan USA politics is I find it hard to imagine them continuing to be a free democracy over the next 20 years. I fervently hope I am wrong because I want democracy to win out.
One of the big problems as I see it is that the opponents of the USA have such an open goal to aim at. US policy in Central and South America; its role in toppling leftist democracies in Africa and supporting autocrats in their place; it’s blunderous attempts to root out terrorism in Afghanistan; its blatant attempt to control oil fields in Iraq. All give fodder to those who want to cosy up to Russia and China in smaller countries.
Lastly I am not sure that we can speak of China in the same tone as we do of Russia and Iran. Taiwan, for example; it is clearly Chinese, just a different brand of Chinese politics from the revolutionary mainland. China invading Taiwan, to a neutral observer, is nothing like the USA invading Iraq or staging a coup in Tanzania, for example. Nor is it like Iran funding terror groups, nor again is it like Russia invading Ukraine although I can see this is a more subtle distinction.
Please don’t misunderstand me-I am not arguing for a minute that China invading Taiwan would be a good thing, simply that I don’t think it would be worse than what the USA did in Iraq.
I am deeply concerned about the future and looking for the least worst option. Perhaps selfishly, of the options available I feel Chinese global dominance is least likely to end up with me or one of my kids being conscripted into a global war. To restate once more - if USA emerges from its current morass still a functioning but imperfect democracy, then let’s stick with them.
The USA withdrew from Iraq; its objective was not annexation. China, Russia and Iran use their muscle to intimidate, silence, bully, oppress or seek revenge against anyone they like, without any scruples or justice.
If our primary goal is peace and avoiding any sort of conflict at all costs then might will make right, and we will have to suffer what we must.
Otherwise, we will have to stand up to it.
Again, I'm just not sure that China does as you say (I fully agree Russia and Iran do). Perhaps that is a naive statement - happy to be shown evidence otherwise (I'm not ignoring the Uighurs - along with what was done to Tibet what China is doing to them is pretty horrific - I just think this smacks more of internal oppression than threatening the rest of the world).
I guess to turn the question around, is China interfering outside its borders in the same or worse way than the USA did/does in Iraq or Central America? Or perhaps they will do this in future if not checked?
What I see instead from China is a soft power advance that is pretty scary in its own way, but seems to involve pumping lots of resources into many states in e.g. Africa, rather than using the CIA, the Revolutionary Guard or the Wagner Group to kill the right people to destablise things.
I think China in Africa is about taking resources out, not pumping them in.
Ami Ayalon, a retired admiral who also commanded Israel’s navy and was wounded in battle and decorated for his service, also said destroying Hamas was not a realistic military goal, and the current operation in Gaza risked entrenching support for the group.
“We Israelis will have security only when they, Palestinians, will have hope. This is the equation,” he said in an interview at his home. “To say the same in military language: you cannot deter anyone, a person or a group, if he believes he has nothing to lose.”..
These figures are interesting. (Shame they don't give complete percentages for all the parties).
"In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019, whereas the Conservative vote is down by an average of 18 per cent."
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
Smaller majority than most recent polls suggest.
EDIT: actual vote share for Labour 36%. Way lower than other pollsters. Seems off.
MRP is a different polling methodology addressing a slightly different question about seat distribution rather than vote distribution. It wouldn't be surprising IMV if the sample gives a different topline distribution of votes. It doesn't necessarily mean this particular poll is right of course. My impression is that MRP is more hit and miss - sometimes spot on, sometimes wildly out, compared with conventional polling that tends to be vaguely right.
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
I'd like to understand the rationale for the article suggesting that without Reform we'd be into hung parliament territory. I can't read the paywalled linked articles, did Yougov ask what who Reform voters would vote for if Reform don't stand in their constituency?
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
Yes, but that is assuming that all Reform votes go Con according to the article. That isn't going to happen.
"Estimated number of seats won with Reform standing and if Reform votes went to the Conservatives at next election" is the legend on the chart.
I see both Isle of Wight seats go Labour. Is that the first time ever?
TBH I think the USAF dress blues are much underrated: far less performative than the others, it's basically a business suit with medals and silver buttons. Far more professional to my eye.
If you really want the best dress-up uniforms, Americans seem to top-rate the USMC dress uniform.
And the USMC with blood stripe is one of the most ugly
Indeed, they’ve mixed the trousers from Starmer’s taking the knee photo (grim cheap blue) with an alright coat and then stuck the cap badge in a really stupid place. Doesn’t remotely compare to the dark simplicity of the Royal Marines uniform which is way down the list of smart uniforms anyway compared to the Rifles for one.
My unit was affiliated with the RGJ when I was younger, so you have a fan here!
These figures are interesting. (Shame they don't give complete percentages for all the parties).
"In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019, whereas the Conservative vote is down by an average of 18 per cent."
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
Yes, but that is assuming that all Reform votes go Con according to the article. That isn't going to happen.
"Estimated number of seats won with Reform standing and if Reform votes went to the Conservatives at next election" is the legend on the chart.
I see both Isle of Wight seats go Labour. Is that the first time ever?
It'll be the first time IOW has had 2 seats. So definitely.
The Conservatives are heading for an electoral wipeout on the scale of their 1997 defeat by Labour, the most authoritative opinion poll in five years has predicted.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
Smaller majority than most recent polls suggest.
EDIT: actual vote share for Labour 36%. Way lower than other pollsters. Seems off.
Blair won a 66-seat majority on 35% of the vote in 2005. Different circs, of course!
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
I'd like to understand the rationale for the article suggesting that without Reform we'd be into hung parliament territory. I can't read the paywalled linked articles, did Yougov ask what who Reform voters would vote for if Reform don't stand in their constituency?
No. But Frosty knows without asking what people want and will do.
These figures are interesting. (Shame they don't give complete percentages for all the parties).
"In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019, whereas the Conservative vote is down by an average of 18 per cent."
Slightly odd article from the BBC on tge Taiwanese election: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67974541 " China sees any statement of support towards the DPP as lending legitimacy to politicians, which Beijing sees as a gang of separatists hoping to turn Taiwan into an independent sovereign nation."
Are we not supposed to see Taiwan as an independent sovereign nation then, BBC?
Most governments don't either, including UK and USA. Government policy boils down to "ask me no questions and I'll tell you no lies".
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
Yes, but that is assuming that all Reform votes go Con according to the article. That isn't going to happen.
"Estimated number of seats won with Reform standing and if Reform votes went to the Conservatives at next election" is the legend on the chart.
I see both Isle of Wight seats go Labour. Is that the first time ever?
It'll be the first time IOW has had 2 seats. So definitely.
It'd been Conservative, Liberal and LD but never Labour as far as I can see. Even in 1945.
"We want more", Frost says. They want people with student debt, wanting to buy houses.
And he thinks what we are sick of is the boats and net zero? What planet is he on?
Planet Brexit Loon.
Sounds like even Frostie has gone quiet on Brexit. (Oh for the days when I thought that the Conservatives would run in 2023 on "Brexit is still in peril, only Boris can save it".)
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
Yes, but that is assuming that all Reform votes go Con according to the article. That isn't going to happen.
"Estimated number of seats won with Reform standing and if Reform votes went to the Conservatives at next election" is the legend on the chart.
I see both Isle of Wight seats go Labour. Is that the first time ever?
It'll be the first time IOW has had 2 seats. So definitely.
It'd been Conservative, Liberal and LD but never Labour as far as I can see. Even in 1945.
My friends on the isle tell me 'no way' - it will remain Tory.
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
Yes, but that is assuming that all Reform votes go Con according to the article. That isn't going to happen.
"Estimated number of seats won with Reform standing and if Reform votes went to the Conservatives at next election" is the legend on the chart.
I see both Isle of Wight seats go Labour. Is that the first time ever?
It'll be the first time IOW has had 2 seats. So definitely.
It'd been Conservative, Liberal and LD but never Labour as far as I can see. Even in 1945.
My friends on the isle tell me 'no way' - it will remain Tory.
I'm not so sure. There's a lot of poverty on the island, and quite a lot of light greens too.
Comments
Motohoons have mainly gone to Scotland, North Lincolnshire or North Yorkshire !
🚨 BREAKING: Senator Marco Rubio has endorsed Donald Trump for President
In Korea, Chinese had considerable success at start of their intervention in late 1950 in hammering UN forces on the western side of peninsula, resulting in mass bug-outs by US Army (including my great-uncle).
On eastern side, Chinese greatly outnumbered UN, mostly USMC troops with some Royal Marines, but were at disadvantage due to sub-zero weather; also the Marines (including my father) lacked trucks so less mobile, thus forced to dig in rather than bug out.
And while Marines lacked mobility, they DID have the firepower, training and leadership to deal with human wave attacks.
According to my Daddy Dearest, the Marines (USMC & RN) would be dug in, in holes basted in the frozen ground if nothing else was available. Typically the Chinese would attack just before dawn, at false dawn. Accompanies by trumpets, bugles, yells, throwing stick grenades, and firing burp-guns (prized by marines) and other weapons.
Marine orders were simple, and effective: 1) stay in you hole; and 2) shoot anybody running around outside, until you got further orders.
I guess to turn the question around, is China interfering outside its borders in the same or worse way than the USA did/does in Iraq or Central America? Or perhaps they will do this in future if not checked?
What I see instead from China is a soft power advance that is pretty scary in its own way, but seems to involve pumping lots of resources into many states in e.g. Africa, rather than using the CIA, the Revolutionary Guard or the Wagner Group to kill the right people to destablise things.
Too many families are being ripped apart by grief after losing a loved one to suicide.
My Labour government’s preventative reforms will drive down the rate of suicide and save families from anguish.
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1746632999293096339?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
We'll take that, malcy!
Keep in mind the ongoing Florida GOP Civil War Trump versus DeSantis.
Worse than Brother versus Brother, it's Grifter versus Grifter.
https://www.dundeecity.gov.uk/news/article?article_ref=4514#:~:text=Responding to the publication Dundee,the harm caused by drugs.
Not that I know anything beyond that, but reckon dixiedean does.
If he had used his position to help said scumbag… but there’s no report of that.
It's going to be a bloodbath.
Having ‘lost’ China, and confronting two communist powers in south east Asia, US pragmatism overcame whatever principle might have been involved.
Though Truman might have been better of paying more attention to Formosa, and less to propping up the French colonialists in Vietnam.
It gets worse though. That ****tard Rob Walker will be talking utter gibberish when it is all over.
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1746640246974951689
Reports of an IL-22 being hit as well.
(Did I leave out Hunter Biden? Hell yes!)
Situation of hapless First Minister of Scotland is so dire, that story about his druggie relation may actually help him.
> Helps make him relatable to many Scots, with similar situations in their own families.
> Might get him a wee bit (emphasis on diminutive) of sympathy vote
> Certain distracts somewhat (ditto) from the other SNP scandals, problems, record and other baggage.
Plus: three more Tory big beasts who could go as more than half the seats won in 2019 could be lost, according to YouGov poll
Jeremy Hunt would be among 11 Cabinet ministers to lose their seats if Rishi Sunak went to the country now, the biggest opinion poll since 2019 has revealed.
Mr Hunt, whose current South West Surrey constituency will cease to exist because of boundary changes, would lose to the Liberal Democrats in his new seat, the poll suggests.
He would become the first Chancellor to lose their seat at an election – but he would not be alone. Other Cabinet ministers are predicted to lose their seats, along with Tory grandees including Sir Iain Duncan Smith, a former party leader.
In all, more than half the seats won under Boris Johnson’s leadership at the 2019 general election would be lost if the election was held now, according to YouGov.
Does this link work: www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
And Abe Lincoln had not one, not two, but three (half) brothers-in-law serving in the Confederate Army.
The YouGov survey of 14,000 people forecasts that the Tories will retain just 169 seats, while Labour will sweep to power with 385 – giving Sir Keir Starmer a 120-seat majority.
EDIT: actual vote share for Labour 36%. Way lower than other pollsters. Seems off.
If you offered Rishi and Kier 169-385, they'd probably both be wise to take it.
Rishi Sunak showing off his personality around the country
Campaigning with his wife
Is he trying to lose?
He had Johnson on a landslide whilst some of us were dismissing his claims as wishful thinking.
So, are they sending a message to the leadership of the Conservatives or Reform?
Lord Frost added that the only way to avoid the likely defeat was “to be as tough as it takes on immigration, reverse the debilitating increases in tax, end the renewables tax on energy costs – and much more”.
Not. A. Clue.
But if Labour gets in they'll hire a bunch more people, and also give them more training about spotting and helping suicidal people, so it'll be more likely that you can get help when you need it.
Only a trick a party could pull once, of course.
Truly brutal, and a very narrow escape for the UN forces.
They don't, the truth is that the culture wars and the environment opposition is completely alien to these people. It is about the economy.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
"The Tories will win 196 fewer seats than in 2019, more than the 178 Sir John Major lost in 1997.
The poll exposes the huge influence that Reform UK is set to have on the election result. The Right-wing party would not win any seats, but support for it would be the decisive factor in 96 Tory losses – the difference between a Labour majority and a hung Parliament."
Much also depends on whether Sunak can squeeze the Reform UK vote to give Starmer a real battle
If Rishi stands on a soapbox Labour are ******!
LOL.
If only this is what will happen in reality.
Starmer is not Blair and there will be a swing back once campaign proper begins in early October.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Palace_Museum
It is a modern version of colonialism.
And he thinks what we are sick of is the boats and net zero? What planet is he on?
Ex-Shin Bet head says Israel should negotiate with jailed intifada leader
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/14/shin-bet-ami-ayalon-calls-on-israel-release-intifada-leader-marwan-barghouti
A former leader of the Shin Bet domestic security force has said Israel will not have security until Palestinians have their own state, and Israeli authorities should release Marwan Barghouti, jailed leader of the second intifada, to direct negotiations to create one.
Ami Ayalon, a retired admiral who also commanded Israel’s navy and was wounded in battle and decorated for his service, also said destroying Hamas was not a realistic military goal, and the current operation in Gaza risked entrenching support for the group.
“We Israelis will have security only when they, Palestinians, will have hope. This is the equation,” he said in an interview at his home. “To say the same in military language: you cannot deter anyone, a person or a group, if he believes he has nothing to lose.”..
"In constituencies across England and Wales, the Labour vote is up by an average of just four per cent compared to 2019, whereas the Conservative vote is down by an average of 18 per cent."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-tories-worst-defeat-1997-labour/
"Estimated number of seats won with Reform standing and if Reform votes went to the Conservatives at next election" is the legend on the chart.
I see both Isle of Wight seats go Labour. Is that the first time ever?
To annoy the anti-vaxers.
It is the 'sit on hands' vote that will determine this GE imho.
So definitely.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/01/14/general-election-poll-how-will-constituency-vote-tool/
But Frosty knows without asking what people want and will do.
Of course they don’t. PRC are a bunch of commie rebels who have occupied the mainland…
I really think the Conservatives can turn things around if they just spend another £100 million not sending anyone to Rwanda.
Now, it's just Planet Loon.