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Record low temperatures forecast for Iowa’s polling day – politicalbetting.com

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  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Nigelb said:

    Lai seems to have won in Taiwan.
    No majority in the legislature, though, with the newish third party taking votes.

    China pissed.

    Doesn't seem to.
    Election conceded hours ago.
    The Legislature, in the sense of largest Party, is still all to play for.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549

    Taiwan

    Polls close 8am GMT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypa-4xxd0Iw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p8gVlJLmnw

    https://udn.com/vote2024/open

    Note that system is FPTP (as per presidencies of Mexico, Philippines, South Korea) - will this be Taiwan's last ever free and fair election for president?

    Will post more links if I find any good ones.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Damn, I missed this election count. Well I can always watch it non-live.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,517
    edited January 13
    Nigelb said:

    From the PO can of worms.

    Post office owner says Horizon system was used to frame him for wife’s murder
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/13/post-office-owner-says-horizon-system-was-used-to-frame-him-for-wifes-murder

    Chuck in some police incompetence, on top of the unreliable Horizon evidence.
    … North Yorkshire police officers lost key evidence, including a clump of hair found on the pillow in the couple’s bedroom. The hair, which was a different colour to both Diana’s and Robin’s, was never taken for forensic analysis and was lost.
    ..The murder weapon, a metal bar, was only found several days after the murder, on top of a high wall nearby. The jury heard it was contaminated by the police officer who handled it, and may have sneezed on it...


    Hard to say without further detail if the conviction is so unsafe it should be quashed, but it’s likely there’ll be more than a handful of these tangential cases.

    Reading the article it would seem that the Horizon losses were central to the whole prosecution case. There was no pghysical evidence to link him to the crime and it all depended on him having been stealing the money and killing his wife to cover it up.

    I have no idea whether it would be enough to exhonerate him but it certainly looks like it should be enough to have the case reopened.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,214
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Peter Oborne reckons Sir Keir is fibbing about Brexit at the moment, and will slowly take us back into the EU if he becomes PM. Probably right, he u-turns on every other pledge and we know what he really thinks on this one

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1746109837195563119?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Let's hope so!
    Being dishonest with the electorate is a good thing in your opinion?
    Tricky.

    If good people being honest were a winning tactic, the country and world would be in a much better place. But most of the evidence of history is that being dishonest beats being honest in getting to the top. And that includes electoral politics.

    Which puts people with a disposition to be honest in a difficult bind. Is it better to lose, knowing in your heart that you did the right thing, or to put your scruples to one side and do the evil necessary to win?

    To which the only answer is, as we used to say on High Table, "search me guv, I only work here."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,802

    pm215 said:

    Just imagine if you had locked yourself into a 25 year fixed mortgage in late 2006.

    Rachel Reeves has pledged that Labour will oversee a “revolution” in home ownership by opening the door to 25-year fixed-rate mortgages for millions of people.

    In an interview with The Times before a trip to the World Economic Forum in Davos, the shadow chancellor said that longer fixed-rate deals would enable people to buy houses with smaller deposits and with lower monthly repayments.

    She has asked a Labour review of financial services, which is being run by a group of City grandees, to work with the mortgage industry to find ways to remove regulatory barriers and help trigger a broader cultural shift.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rachel-reeves-interview-fixed-mortgage-house-uk-zqtvbkgxn

    You can’t destroy risk in finance - just move it about.
    True, but as a society I think we should have preferences about where the risk ends up. In particular I think it's better if we design systems and regulations so that significant risks and especially hard to predict large downside risks largely land on big organisations who have the resources to make a better job of assessing them and to weather the consequences if they do come to pass, rather than on individuals. If individuals want to take on risks, that's fine, but we shouldn't set financial systems up so they are obliged to.

    What I mean is that having everyone on lifetime-of-the-mortgage portable fixed rates sounds like a no lose plan.

    Except that this will mean someone holding a fuckton of 25 year swaps.

    If not carefully thought out, that’s your next banking crisis.
    Yep. If interest rates rise the capital value of your mortgages will fall wiping out your capital and then your solvency ( assuming you have to refinance the money you have lent).

    The only way this works is a high enough interest rate on the loan to cover that risk with the effect of transferring the risk back from the lender to the borrower. Even for Reeves it is a peculiarly stupid idea.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    Projections showing KMT with 52, DPP 51, TPP on 8 and 2 independents.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,556
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Lai seems to have won in Taiwan.
    No majority in the legislature, though, with the newish third party taking votes.

    China pissed.

    Of course China's pi**ed. Taiwan's shown China how to do democracy. I wonder why dictator-for-life Xi doesn't like that?
    Lai is an impressive character.

    Raised by a single mother after his miner father died from carbon monoxide poisoning; has a masters degree in public health, and is a national expert of spinal injuries; hugely popular two term mayor of Tainan before entering national politics, and nominated ‘best legislator’ four times in a row while sitting in parliament.
    Not your average party hack.
    When is the transfer window open?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,071
    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Peter Oborne reckons Sir Keir is fibbing about Brexit at the moment, and will slowly take us back into the EU if he becomes PM. Probably right, he u-turns on every other pledge and we know what he really thinks on this one

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1746109837195563119?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Let's hope so!
    Being dishonest with the electorate is a good thing in your opinion?
    To win it often is. At the least being carefully ambiguous is a winning strategy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,802
    Andy_JS said:

    Taiwan

    Polls close 8am GMT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypa-4xxd0Iw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p8gVlJLmnw

    https://udn.com/vote2024/open

    Note that system is FPTP (as per presidencies of Mexico, Philippines, South Korea) - will this be Taiwan's last ever free and fair election for president?

    Will post more links if I find any good ones.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Damn, I missed this election count. Well I can always watch it non-live.
    According to Bloomberg 60% have voted for candidates who wanted closer relationships with China and 40% for the candidate who did not, making him the winner.

    Doesn’t strike me as the most stable of situations.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    Nigelb said:

    From the PO can of worms.

    Post office owner says Horizon system was used to frame him for wife’s murder
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/13/post-office-owner-says-horizon-system-was-used-to-frame-him-for-wifes-murder

    Chuck in some police incompetence, on top of the unreliable Horizon evidence.
    … North Yorkshire police officers lost key evidence, including a clump of hair found on the pillow in the couple’s bedroom. The hair, which was a different colour to both Diana’s and Robin’s, was never taken for forensic analysis and was lost.
    ..The murder weapon, a metal bar, was only found several days after the murder, on top of a high wall nearby. The jury heard it was contaminated by the police officer who handled it, and may have sneezed on it...


    Hard to say without further detail if the conviction is so unsafe it should be quashed, but it’s likely there’ll be more than a handful of these tangential cases.

    Reading the article it would seem that the Horizon losses were central to the whole prosecution case. There was no pghysical evidence to link him to the crime and it all depended on him having been stealing the money and killing his wife to cover it up.

    I have no idea whether it would be enough to exhonerate him but it certainly looks like it should be enough to have the case reopened.
    Sounds like a nightmare. Even if the Horizon evidence is only a small part of the murder conviction it will presumably be unsafe.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,549
    O/T

    I love finding webpages that haven't been updated for many years, like this one about Green Park tube station.

    https://mindspace.fi/mind/retro/lul/greenpark/greenparkstation.html
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    edited January 13
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taiwan

    Polls close 8am GMT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypa-4xxd0Iw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p8gVlJLmnw

    https://udn.com/vote2024/open

    Note that system is FPTP (as per presidencies of Mexico, Philippines, South Korea) - will this be Taiwan's last ever free and fair election for president?

    Will post more links if I find any good ones.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Damn, I missed this election count. Well I can always watch it non-live.
    According to Bloomberg 60% have voted for candidates who wanted closer relationships with China and 40% for the candidate who did not, making him the winner.

    Doesn’t strike me as the most stable of situations.
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taiwan

    Polls close 8am GMT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypa-4xxd0Iw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p8gVlJLmnw

    https://udn.com/vote2024/open

    Note that system is FPTP (as per presidencies of Mexico, Philippines, South Korea) - will this be Taiwan's last ever free and fair election for president?

    Will post more links if I find any good ones.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Damn, I missed this election count. Well I can always watch it non-live.
    According to Bloomberg 60% have voted for candidates who wanted closer relationships with China and 40% for the candidate who did not, making him the winner.

    Doesn’t strike me as the most stable of situations.
    That somewhat assumes that relations with the PRC was the main driver of voting intention. It wasn't.
    And that the KMT and TTP hold similar positions on the subject. They don't.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,365
    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    From the PO can of worms.

    Post office owner says Horizon system was used to frame him for wife’s murder
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/13/post-office-owner-says-horizon-system-was-used-to-frame-him-for-wifes-murder

    Chuck in some police incompetence, on top of the unreliable Horizon evidence.
    … North Yorkshire police officers lost key evidence, including a clump of hair found on the pillow in the couple’s bedroom. The hair, which was a different colour to both Diana’s and Robin’s, was never taken for forensic analysis and was lost.
    ..The murder weapon, a metal bar, was only found several days after the murder, on top of a high wall nearby. The jury heard it was contaminated by the police officer who handled it, and may have sneezed on it...


    Hard to say without further detail if the conviction is so unsafe it should be quashed, but it’s likely there’ll be more than a handful of these tangential cases.

    Reading the article it would seem that the Horizon losses were central to the whole prosecution case. There was no pghysical evidence to link him to the crime and it all depended on him having been stealing the money and killing his wife to cover it up.

    I have no idea whether it would be enough to exhonerate him but it certainly looks like it should be enough to have the case reopened.
    Sounds like a nightmare. Even if the Horizon evidence is only a small part of the murder conviction it will presumably be unsafe.
    Well, not necessarily. If, for example, there had been DNA evidence linking him to the murder weapon or CCTV footage showing nobody else was in the shop I'm thinking the fact Horizon was used to suggest he was stealing money might not be an issue.

    But - it doesn't look like that was the case.

    There may have been other aspects of motive, reading it, but with all the procedural flaws it does indeed seem like a retrial might be in order.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,802
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taiwan

    Polls close 8am GMT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypa-4xxd0Iw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p8gVlJLmnw

    https://udn.com/vote2024/open

    Note that system is FPTP (as per presidencies of Mexico, Philippines, South Korea) - will this be Taiwan's last ever free and fair election for president?

    Will post more links if I find any good ones.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Damn, I missed this election count. Well I can always watch it non-live.
    According to Bloomberg 60% have voted for candidates who wanted closer relationships with China and 40% for the candidate who did not, making him the winner.

    Doesn’t strike me as the most stable of situations.
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taiwan

    Polls close 8am GMT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypa-4xxd0Iw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p8gVlJLmnw

    https://udn.com/vote2024/open

    Note that system is FPTP (as per presidencies of Mexico, Philippines, South Korea) - will this be Taiwan's last ever free and fair election for president?

    Will post more links if I find any good ones.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Damn, I missed this election count. Well I can always watch it non-live.
    According to Bloomberg 60% have voted for candidates who wanted closer relationships with China and 40% for the candidate who did not, making him the winner.

    Doesn’t strike me as the most stable of situations.
    That somewhat assumes that relations with the PRC was the main driver of voting.
    And that the KMT and TTP hold similar positions on the subject. They don't.
    I am not assuming anything (mainly because I don’t know nearly enough about Taiwanese politics) but I do find it hard to believe that an ever more aggressive and very large neighbour threatening invasion was not a fairly significant factor in the election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    .

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Peter Oborne reckons Sir Keir is fibbing about Brexit at the moment, and will slowly take us back into the EU if he becomes PM. Probably right, he u-turns on every other pledge and we know what he really thinks on this one

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1746109837195563119?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Let's hope so!
    Being dishonest with the electorate is a good thing in your opinion?
    Tricky.

    If good people being honest were a winning tactic, the country and world would be in a much better place. But most of the evidence of history is that being dishonest beats being honest in getting to the top. And that includes electoral politics.

    Which puts people with a disposition to be honest in a difficult bind. Is it better to lose, knowing in your heart that you did the right thing, or to put your scruples to one side and do the evil necessary to win?

    To which the only answer is, as we used to say on High Table, "search me guv, I only work here."
    That’s essentially the problem the Democrats (and old style Republicans) have with the current Trump party.
    But no one is going to beat him in the lying stakes.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    ydoethur said:

    darkage said:

    Nigelb said:

    From the PO can of worms.

    Post office owner says Horizon system was used to frame him for wife’s murder
    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/jan/13/post-office-owner-says-horizon-system-was-used-to-frame-him-for-wifes-murder

    Chuck in some police incompetence, on top of the unreliable Horizon evidence.
    … North Yorkshire police officers lost key evidence, including a clump of hair found on the pillow in the couple’s bedroom. The hair, which was a different colour to both Diana’s and Robin’s, was never taken for forensic analysis and was lost.
    ..The murder weapon, a metal bar, was only found several days after the murder, on top of a high wall nearby. The jury heard it was contaminated by the police officer who handled it, and may have sneezed on it...


    Hard to say without further detail if the conviction is so unsafe it should be quashed, but it’s likely there’ll be more than a handful of these tangential cases.

    Reading the article it would seem that the Horizon losses were central to the whole prosecution case. There was no pghysical evidence to link him to the crime and it all depended on him having been stealing the money and killing his wife to cover it up.

    I have no idea whether it would be enough to exhonerate him but it certainly looks like it should be enough to have the case reopened.
    Sounds like a nightmare. Even if the Horizon evidence is only a small part of the murder conviction it will presumably be unsafe.
    Well, not necessarily. If, for example, there had been DNA evidence linking him to the murder weapon or CCTV footage showing nobody else was in the shop I'm thinking the fact Horizon was used to suggest he was stealing money might not be an issue.

    But - it doesn't look like that was the case.

    There may have been other aspects of motive, reading it, but with all the procedural flaws it does indeed seem like a retrial might be in order.
    Yeah the reporting says the case against him was all circumstantial so it sounds on the face of it like a retrial.

    Also he has been in prison for 12 years and maintained his innocence which is also a factor. Presumably if you are trying to convince the parole board to let you out after your minimum term it would be in your interest to admit your guilt.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taiwan

    Polls close 8am GMT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypa-4xxd0Iw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p8gVlJLmnw

    https://udn.com/vote2024/open

    Note that system is FPTP (as per presidencies of Mexico, Philippines, South Korea) - will this be Taiwan's last ever free and fair election for president?

    Will post more links if I find any good ones.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Damn, I missed this election count. Well I can always watch it non-live.
    According to Bloomberg 60% have voted for candidates who wanted closer relationships with China and 40% for the candidate who did not, making him the winner.

    Doesn’t strike me as the most stable of situations.
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taiwan

    Polls close 8am GMT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypa-4xxd0Iw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p8gVlJLmnw

    https://udn.com/vote2024/open

    Note that system is FPTP (as per presidencies of Mexico, Philippines, South Korea) - will this be Taiwan's last ever free and fair election for president?

    Will post more links if I find any good ones.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Damn, I missed this election count. Well I can always watch it non-live.
    According to Bloomberg 60% have voted for candidates who wanted closer relationships with China and 40% for the candidate who did not, making him the winner.

    Doesn’t strike me as the most stable of situations.
    That somewhat assumes that relations with the PRC was the main driver of voting.
    And that the KMT and TTP hold similar positions on the subject. They don't.
    I am not assuming anything (mainly because I don’t know nearly enough about Taiwanese politics) but I do find it hard to believe that an ever more aggressive and very large neighbour threatening invasion was not a fairly significant factor in the election.
    It is.
    But voting on that basis tends to be identitarian.
    As such, the rise of the TTP as a Centrist force (at least on this issue), could be seen as a positive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Lai seems to have won in Taiwan.
    No majority in the legislature, though, with the newish third party taking votes.

    China pissed.

    Of course China's pi**ed. Taiwan's shown China how to do democracy. I wonder why dictator-for-life Xi doesn't like that?
    Lai is an impressive character.

    Raised by a single mother after his miner father died from carbon monoxide poisoning; has a masters degree in public health, and is a national expert of spinal injuries; hugely popular two term mayor of Tainan before entering national politics, and nominated ‘best legislator’ four times in a row while sitting in parliament.
    Not your average party hack.
    When is the transfer window open?
    I was asking that at the start of the pandemic, too.
    But I think we’ll need to sort out our own messes.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,412
    TimS said:

    A domestic flight of Japan's All Nippon Airways returned to its departure airport after a crack was found on the cockpit window of a Boeing 737-800 aircraft

    https://x.com/rtenews/status/1746159653010939925

    Boeing’s had a poor few years.
    Boeings going boing.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258
    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    This is almost but not quite as spooky as my night at the Destrehan Hotel in Louisiana. Which was unquestionably the closest I have come to a paranormal experience of “haunting”

    A photo I took during my night at the Destrehan. Even now - thinking about it - makes me shudder



    That ghost baby is clearly AI, you can tell by the hands.
    Which means he's banned. We have a "no AI pics" rule.
    Back from the gin class I just thought I’d check who would try to get me banned

    Et voila

    You and @bondegezou and a few others. You are inadequates
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    This is almost but not quite as spooky as my night at the Destrehan Hotel in Louisiana. Which was unquestionably the closest I have come to a paranormal experience of “haunting”

    A photo I took during my night at the Destrehan. Even now - thinking about it - makes me shudder



    That ghost baby is clearly AI, you can tell by the hands.
    Which means he's banned. We have a "no AI pics" rule.
    Back from the gin class I just thought I’d check who would try to get me banned

    Et voila

    You and @bondegezou and a few others. You are inadequates
    More importantly, did you learn how to drink gin?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taiwan

    Polls close 8am GMT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypa-4xxd0Iw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p8gVlJLmnw

    https://udn.com/vote2024/open

    Note that system is FPTP (as per presidencies of Mexico, Philippines, South Korea) - will this be Taiwan's last ever free and fair election for president?

    Will post more links if I find any good ones.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Damn, I missed this election count. Well I can always watch it non-live.
    According to Bloomberg 60% have voted for candidates who wanted closer relationships with China and 40% for the candidate who did not, making him the winner.

    Doesn’t strike me as the most stable of situations.
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taiwan

    Polls close 8am GMT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypa-4xxd0Iw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p8gVlJLmnw

    https://udn.com/vote2024/open

    Note that system is FPTP (as per presidencies of Mexico, Philippines, South Korea) - will this be Taiwan's last ever free and fair election for president?

    Will post more links if I find any good ones.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Damn, I missed this election count. Well I can always watch it non-live.
    According to Bloomberg 60% have voted for candidates who wanted closer relationships with China and 40% for the candidate who did not, making him the winner.

    Doesn’t strike me as the most stable of situations.
    That somewhat assumes that relations with the PRC was the main driver of voting.
    And that the KMT and TTP hold similar positions on the subject. They don't.
    I am not assuming anything (mainly because I don’t know nearly enough about Taiwanese politics) but I do find it hard to believe that an ever more aggressive and very large neighbour threatening invasion was not a fairly significant factor in the election.
    It is.
    But voting on that basis tends to be identitarian.
    As such, the rise of the TTP as a Centrist force (at least on this issue), could be seen as a positive.
    The third party also support genuine independence, unlike the KMT.
    And given shifting electoral fortunes over the last few cycles, it’s unclear how much of the electorate is indentitarian.

    Domestic stuff like cost and availability of housing seems to be pretty important, too.

    Do we have any PB experts ?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,556
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    isam said:

    Peter Oborne reckons Sir Keir is fibbing about Brexit at the moment, and will slowly take us back into the EU if he becomes PM. Probably right, he u-turns on every other pledge and we know what he really thinks on this one

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1746109837195563119?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Let's hope so!
    Being dishonest with the electorate is a good thing in your opinion?
    To win it often is. At the least being carefully ambiguous is a winning strategy.
    I think one of Davey's problems is that he says he was lied to by the PO. But the voters are a cynical bunch. They expect their politicians to lie - and more to the point, to know when they are being lied to.

    Davey not knowing he was being lied to marks his card as a politician.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,258

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    This is almost but not quite as spooky as my night at the Destrehan Hotel in Louisiana. Which was unquestionably the closest I have come to a paranormal experience of “haunting”

    A photo I took during my night at the Destrehan. Even now - thinking about it - makes me shudder



    That ghost baby is clearly AI, you can tell by the hands.
    Which means he's banned. We have a "no AI pics" rule.
    Back from the gin class I just thought I’d check who would try to get me banned

    Et voila

    You and @bondegezou and a few others. You are inadequates
    More importantly, did you learn how to drink gin?
    Not exactly. The cocktails were lovely but the mixologist did actually say “wow, you drink fast”

    So maybe I don’t need much education?

    Despite all the Khmer Rouge weirdness and spooky sense of doom I can honestly recommend this hotel. It’s properly world class. Soothingly lovely in all respects (ghosts apart)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    This is almost but not quite as spooky as my night at the Destrehan Hotel in Louisiana. Which was unquestionably the closest I have come to a paranormal experience of “haunting”

    A photo I took during my night at the Destrehan. Even now - thinking about it - makes me shudder



    That ghost baby is clearly AI, you can tell by the hands.
    Which means he's banned. We have a "no AI pics" rule.
    Back from the gin class I just thought I’d check who would try to get me banned

    Et voila

    You and @bondegezou and a few others. You are inadequates
    Or they’re just winding you up.
    With some success.

    How much were you able to teach the class ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Lai seems to have won in Taiwan.
    No majority in the legislature, though, with the newish third party taking votes.

    China pissed.

    Doesn't seem to.
    Election conceded hours ago.
    The Legislature, in the sense of largest Party, is still all to play for.
    The fact a clear pro Taiwanese independence candidate has won the Taiwanese presidency will be noted by Beijing. He will have to tread carefully to avoid antagonising them
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,897

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Postmistress confirms she is to stand against Davey at the GE

    https://twitter.com/YvonneNewMalden/status/1745975752531534126?t=Zu_eZZPNQwI4ac_U7dEybg&s=19

    I would be delighted if Alan Bates stood in our constituency as with boundary changes he now does and I would vote for him without a second thought

    Tory win in K&S incoming.
    Nah, Davey will win.
    I wouldn’t be too sure. Particularly if she’s the only such candidate in the country. She’ll become a lightning rod for protest votes. Davey lost the seat in 2015 remember.
    Worth noting that she's already a Kingston councillor. Whether that helps or hinders her, I'm not sure.
    She would certainly be Davey's main challenger in his constituency as a strong, local Independent with a popular campaign issue, rather than the Tories
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited January 13
    DavidL said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Taiwan

    Polls close 8am GMT

    https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ypa-4xxd0Iw

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Taiwanese_presidential_election

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_p8gVlJLmnw

    https://udn.com/vote2024/open

    Note that system is FPTP (as per presidencies of Mexico, Philippines, South Korea) - will this be Taiwan's last ever free and fair election for president?

    Will post more links if I find any good ones.

    Many thanks,

    DC

    Damn, I missed this election count. Well I can always watch it non-live.
    According to Bloomberg 60% have voted for candidates who wanted closer relationships with China and 40% for the candidate who did not, making him the winner.

    Doesn’t strike me as the most stable of situations.
    There's a nuanced distinction between "We're Taiwanese and think we would benefit from a better relationship with China" and "We're Taiwanese, have no interest in China, but don't want to do anything stupid".

    The Chinese government doesn't do nuance however.

    Should add that the opposition parties seem to loathe each other. The DPP are just the government.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...

    Postmistress confirms she is to stand against Davey at the GE

    https://twitter.com/YvonneNewMalden/status/1745975752531534126?t=Zu_eZZPNQwI4ac_U7dEybg&s=19

    I would be delighted if Alan Bates stood in our constituency as with boundary changes he now does and I would vote for him without a second thought

    Perhaps Tory donors could bankroll the Justice for Postmasters Party and stand candidates in every current Labour and LD seat giving Rishi the win. I noticed that the official Conservative X page hasn't given up on demanding Starmer's resignation for being DPP.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,067

    TimS said:

    A domestic flight of Japan's All Nippon Airways returned to its departure airport after a crack was found on the cockpit window of a Boeing 737-800 aircraft

    https://x.com/rtenews/status/1746159653010939925

    Boeing’s had a poor few years.
    Boeings going boing.
    They might end up with this Trump guy in charge.

    Trump’s ‘Mr. Fix-It’ lands in a Boeing storm
    Patrick Shanahan, once Trump’s acting Pentagon chief, is CEO of Spirit AeroSystems, the company at the center of Boeing’s latest air safety debacle.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/13/trump-pentagon-boeing-spirit-shanahan-00135415

    Who, tbf, seems competent.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653
    O/T, the Labour lead didn't drop below 10% in any poll throughout 2023, yet 36 out of 81 entries to the PB prediction competition suggested a lead below 10% would occur in Q1 2024.

    Strange that.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,653

    ...

    Postmistress confirms she is to stand against Davey at the GE

    https://twitter.com/YvonneNewMalden/status/1745975752531534126?t=Zu_eZZPNQwI4ac_U7dEybg&s=19

    I would be delighted if Alan Bates stood in our constituency as with boundary changes he now does and I would vote for him without a second thought

    Perhaps Tory donors could bankroll the Justice for Postmasters Party and stand candidates in every current Labour and LD seat giving Rishi the win. I noticed that the official Conservative X page hasn't given up on demanding Starmer's resignation for being DPP.
    Really? Link?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814
    edited January 13

    kle4 said:

    Heh


    The UK doesn't have the metric system.
    Sometimes we do. We don't want to rush in too quickly.
    What's the assumption we will ever rush in?

    Both shipping and aviation use forms of imperial measures as the baseline - knots, feet and nautical miles - and that's absolutely established.
    Ah, but nm and kn are just metric, only different. Based on subdividing the circumference of the earth, or a notional value thereof. Notdhing to do with Anglo-Norman kings' dangly or other bits.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited January 13

    ...

    Postmistress confirms she is to stand against Davey at the GE

    https://twitter.com/YvonneNewMalden/status/1745975752531534126?t=Zu_eZZPNQwI4ac_U7dEybg&s=19

    I would be delighted if Alan Bates stood in our constituency as with boundary changes he now does and I would vote for him without a second thought

    Perhaps Tory donors could bankroll the Justice for Postmasters Party and stand candidates in every current Labour and LD seat giving Rishi the win. I noticed that the official Conservative X page hasn't given up on demanding Starmer's resignation for being DPP.
    Really? Link?
    https://x.com/ToryVote_/status/1745890663453852111?s=20
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    isam said:

    Peter Oborne reckons Sir Keir is fibbing about Brexit at the moment, and will slowly take us back into the EU if he becomes PM. Probably right, he u-turns on every other pledge and we know what he really thinks on this one

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1746109837195563119?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    How can that be "fibbing about Brexit"? If you need to use a political acronym it would be fibbing about Brejoin.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,399
    edited January 13
    There's also a deeply cultural strand as well as cross-strait relations and the economy.
    The DPP are progressive and quasi-libertarian. Some might say "woke". Harking back to the Polynesian communitarianism and loose, fluid family structures of the native population, Chan (or Zen Buddhist) ultrarelativism, the island's long tradition of piracy, and a lax view of legal niceties. There's a hearty disrespect for authority. Hence it's the only country in Asia with legalised same sex marriage. They had a trans health Minister during the pandemic. Laws tend to be considered advisory.
    The KMT are rooted in Confucian values of order, family and respect for tradition.
    Economically they are both pretty right wing.
    Interestingly, the TTP have attacked, and garnered votes from the left. They are talking about wealth re-distribution.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,631

    O/T, the Labour lead didn't drop below 10% in any poll throughout 2023, yet 36 out of 81 entries to the PB prediction competition suggested a lead below 10% would occur in Q1 2024.

    Strange that.

    I think everyone expects some swingback, but actually there has been further swing to Lab.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,606
    eristdoof said:

    isam said:

    Peter Oborne reckons Sir Keir is fibbing about Brexit at the moment, and will slowly take us back into the EU if he becomes PM. Probably right, he u-turns on every other pledge and we know what he really thinks on this one

    https://x.com/timesradio/status/1746109837195563119?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    How can that be "fibbing about Brexit"? If you need to use a political acronym it would be fibbing about Brejoin.
    The way Oborne kept talking about the single currency made him sound very confused. It's as if he thinks we're still in 1997 and the question is whether or not Blair will go for the Euro.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,408
    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Heh


    The UK doesn't have the metric system.
    Sometimes we do. We don't want to rush in too quickly.
    What's the assumption we will ever rush in?

    Both shipping and aviation use forms of imperial measures as the baseline - knots, feet and nautical miles - and that's absolutely established.
    Ah, but nm and kn are just metric, only different. Based on subdividing the circumference of the earth, or a notional value thereof. Notdhing to do with Anglo-Norman kings' dangly or other bits.
    You can make the same argument about the mile, yard and pound.

    They've all been standardised by reference to their metric equivalents.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,027
    edited January 13

    ...

    Postmistress confirms she is to stand against Davey at the GE

    https://twitter.com/YvonneNewMalden/status/1745975752531534126?t=Zu_eZZPNQwI4ac_U7dEybg&s=19

    I would be delighted if Alan Bates stood in our constituency as with boundary changes he now does and I would vote for him without a second thought

    Perhaps Tory donors could bankroll the Justice for Postmasters Party and stand candidates in every current Labour and LD seat giving Rishi the win. I noticed that the official Conservative X page hasn't given up on demanding Starmer's resignation for being DPP.
    I would be content to see post masters/ mistresses to stand in every conservative seat and indeed if Alan Bates stood it would be in a present conservative seat

    Whatever the official conservative x page does is nothing to do with me as I am no longer a member and do not support any party
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,606

    ...

    Postmistress confirms she is to stand against Davey at the GE

    https://twitter.com/YvonneNewMalden/status/1745975752531534126?t=Zu_eZZPNQwI4ac_U7dEybg&s=19

    I would be delighted if Alan Bates stood in our constituency as with boundary changes he now does and I would vote for him without a second thought

    Perhaps Tory donors could bankroll the Justice for Postmasters Party and stand candidates in every current Labour and LD seat giving Rishi the win. I noticed that the official Conservative X page hasn't given up on demanding Starmer's resignation for being DPP.
    Three-word campaign slogan: "Send A Message"
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,814

    Carnyx said:

    kle4 said:

    Heh


    The UK doesn't have the metric system.
    Sometimes we do. We don't want to rush in too quickly.
    What's the assumption we will ever rush in?

    Both shipping and aviation use forms of imperial measures as the baseline - knots, feet and nautical miles - and that's absolutely established.
    Ah, but nm and kn are just metric, only different. Based on subdividing the circumference of the earth, or a notional value thereof. Notdhing to do with Anglo-Norman kings' dangly or other bits.
    You can make the same argument about the mile, yard and pound.

    They've all been standardised by reference to their metric equivalents.
    But the mile, yard and pound were always English (in their modern form). The nm was in contrast always international ab initio, and the knot therefore. In its modern form (60 nm to 1 degree lat) it's from Continental sources - versions of Ptolemy's Geography. Claiming it as imperial is about as logical as claiming that curry was invented by the British (chicken tikka masala etc aside).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,556
    A truly huge fire in St. Petersburg at a distribution centre. The night-time shots of something cooking off suggests there may have been ammo stored there.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9Ny-EQeGLM&ab_channel=Kanal13
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    ...

    Postmistress confirms she is to stand against Davey at the GE

    https://twitter.com/YvonneNewMalden/status/1745975752531534126?t=Zu_eZZPNQwI4ac_U7dEybg&s=19

    I would be delighted if Alan Bates stood in our constituency as with boundary changes he now does and I would vote for him without a second thought

    Perhaps Tory donors could bankroll the Justice for Postmasters Party and stand candidates in every current Labour and LD seat giving Rishi the win. I noticed that the official Conservative X page hasn't given up on demanding Starmer's resignation for being DPP.
    Three-word campaign slogan: "Send A Message"
    How about a four word slogan. "Davey, stamp him out".
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,107
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    boulay said:

    Leon said:

    This is almost but not quite as spooky as my night at the Destrehan Hotel in Louisiana. Which was unquestionably the closest I have come to a paranormal experience of “haunting”

    A photo I took during my night at the Destrehan. Even now - thinking about it - makes me shudder



    That ghost baby is clearly AI, you can tell by the hands.
    Which means he's banned. We have a "no AI pics" rule.
    Back from the gin class I just thought I’d check who would try to get me banned

    Et voila

    You and @bondegezou and a few others. You are inadequates
    How wrong can a person be. I was trying to head off you being banned. That was the whole point of my intervention. And it looks like I succeeded because here you are, still posting, still contributing. Praise be.

    You can thank me by PM if you don't want to say it in front of people.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,107

    O/T, the Labour lead didn't drop below 10% in any poll throughout 2023, yet 36 out of 81 entries to the PB prediction competition suggested a lead below 10% would occur in Q1 2024.

    Strange that.

    Yes that's one I'd probably change if it were allowed. I'd go for 12% not 8%.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Watching the snooker. Rob Walker is such an annoying t**t.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,132

    Watching the snooker. Rob Walker is such an annoying t**t.

    Rob Walker is a trot?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,606

    ...

    Postmistress confirms she is to stand against Davey at the GE

    https://twitter.com/YvonneNewMalden/status/1745975752531534126?t=Zu_eZZPNQwI4ac_U7dEybg&s=19

    I would be delighted if Alan Bates stood in our constituency as with boundary changes he now does and I would vote for him without a second thought

    Perhaps Tory donors could bankroll the Justice for Postmasters Party and stand candidates in every current Labour and LD seat giving Rishi the win. I noticed that the official Conservative X page hasn't given up on demanding Starmer's resignation for being DPP.
    Three-word campaign slogan: "Send A Message"
    How about a four word slogan. "Davey, stamp him out".
    "Return to sender"
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    This thread has lost the PB caucus
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,815
    edited January 13
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    I love finding webpages that haven't been updated for many years, like this one about Green Park tube station.

    https://mindspace.fi/mind/retro/lul/greenpark/greenparkstation.html

    Some of the pictures on this joker's list date from 2008 (or even 2007 in a few cases!), but I hear he's updated most of the more interesting rebuilding of (eg.) station buildings:

    https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Sunil060902

This discussion has been closed.