Sunak will be the first PM since Brown with the power to choose the election – politicalbetting.com

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Sunak power to call the election – politicalbetting.com

Sunak will be the first PM since Brown with the power to choose the election date

Read the full story here

viewcode

First!

TheScreamingEagles

Test

ydoethur

A couple of thoughts:

1) FTPA aside, both May and Massive were able to choose their dates in practice.

2) what allowance is being made for the notorious penny pinching tendencies of Sunak? 2nd May will be far cheaper.

viewcode

TheScreamingEagles said:

Test

Match

OnlyLivingBoy

That date certainly sounds plausible, although I think some of the pointers that Labour has highlighted suggest a May election is also being complemented.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

Test

The Aussies and the Saffers both won very convincingly. Bad day for subcontinental teams.

viewcode

I was first, by the way. It gives me a great glow of achievement.

Or flatulence. It's difficult to tell.

ydoethur

OnlyLivingBoy said:

That date certainly sounds plausible, although I think some of the pointers that Labour has highlighted suggest a May election is also being complemented.

I think the one thing we can be sure of is that Sunak will dither, delay and finally make the silliest possible choice and refuse to backtrack no matter how much evidence is piled up to the contrary.

That's one reason I'm thinking May is likely.

eek

October 28th gives Rishi 2 years in power but 6 months in which things will go wrong and people will have forgotten about the extra money the NI cuts gave them in January / April (latter is an obvious guess).

So I still think May is a plausible option - it doesn't give 2 years but does gives the Tories a better chance than waiting until October when the bribes will have been forgotten about.

viewcode

viewcode said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Test

Match

Special

(and having completed the sequence I can now relax)

londonpubman

It will be 2 May

Fairliered

FPT

FrankBooth said:

I presume the new thread is like one of those bars with a whole crowd outside waiting for the doors to open.

Meanwhile, TSE will be inside with the key, typing the first comment!
Edit - beaten by @viewcode! What a victory against the odds!

FrankBooth

OnlyLivingBoy said:

That date certainly sounds plausible, although I think some of the pointers that Labour has highlighted suggest a May election is also being complemented.

I suspected that the Labour talk of May was merely political. So that if it doesn't happen they can call Sunak a bottler.

TheScreamingEagles

Fairliered said:

FPT

FrankBooth said:

I presume the new thread is like one of those bars with a whole crowd outside waiting for the doors to open.

Meanwhile, TSE will be inside with the key, typing the first comment!
Edit - beaten by @viewcode! What a victory against the odds!

I was making sure people could post on the thread rather than trying to obtain a first.

FrankBooth

The exquisite pleasure of a first is for all of us who never got one IRL.

TheScreamingEagles

FrankBooth said:

The exquisite pleasure of a first is for all of us who never got one IRL.

I can ensure you can get a first with a small bribe donation to PB.

Malmesbury

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

The exquisite pleasure of a first is for all of us who never got one IRL.

I can you can ensure you can get a first with a small bribe donation to PB.

Compliance!

TheScreamingEagles

I think a Halloween general election would be fun.

Nightmare on Downing Street headlines write themselves.

FrankBooth

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrankBooth said:

The exquisite pleasure of a first is for all of us who never got one IRL.

I can you can ensure you can get a first with a small bribe donation to PB.

Oxford please.

rcs1000

FrankBooth said:

The exquisite pleasure of a first is for all of us who never got one IRL.

You're not married, I take it.

ydoethur

When is His Nibs leaving the country for the Commonwealth bunfight?

I can't imagine the election will be called after that. Charles will be Mr Unhappy if the first and conceivably only election of his reign is officially declared by William.

TheScreamingEagles

ydoethur said:

When is His Nibs leaving the country for the Commonwealth bunfight?

I can't imagine the election will be called after that. Charles will be Mr Unhappy if the first and conceivably only election of his reign is officially declared by William.

CHOGM starts on the 21st October 2024, so I'd expect His Majesty to leave the UK around the 17th?

Edit - I think he's got a tour to Australia and NZ scheduled either side of that.

OldKingCole

I hesitate to disagree on something like this OGH but I still suspect Sunk will hold on as long as he can do. And that means that this time next year we’ll be dusting off the campaign kit, sharpening pencils and, on this board, scrutinising every possible set of entrails!

FrankBooth

rcs1000 said:

FrankBooth said:

The exquisite pleasure of a first is for all of us who never got one IRL.

You're not married, I take it.

That is true but I fail to see what that has to do with it.

Firsts are the currency of pb and no matter how many women sh*gger Johnson lays he'll never be the equal of (it pains me to admit) Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton.

Sandpit

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

rcs1000

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

FrankBooth said:

The exquisite pleasure of a first is for all of us who never got one IRL.

You're not married, I take it.

That is true but I fail to see what that has to do with it.

Firsts are the currency of pb and no matter how many women sh*gger Johnson lays he'll never be the equal of (it pains me to admit) Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton.

It was a mild - and perhaps over subtle - joke about how women complain that their husband always comes first.

northern_monkey

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

FrankBooth

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

londonpubman

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Don't count on interest rates falling that quickly...or England winning the Euros!

Northern_Al

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Foxy

FPT on the 4 hour wait target in the NHS for A and E:

Yes, it was often gamed, as can be seen from graphs of waiting times, with a lot of discharges or admissions occurring with a few minutes to go before the wait time goes red.

This doesn't completely invalidate it. It acts as a canary in the coal mine measuring stress on the system. Hospitals meeting the 4 hour target were generally doing well on other measures, those failing were not. Pretty much the entire system is now failing.

I agree on not waiting for an ambulance if can get there under your own steam. Waiting times are dire and another sign of a system under desperate strain.

NickyBreakspear

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

Well, Starmer will then have to go out to the King and kiss hands abroad.

I think that Asquith kissed hands in Biarritz in 1908 as the King was on holiday at the time?

Foxy

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

Similarly daft to build his castle under the Heathrow flightpath.

AverageNinja

Aliens are real.

TheScreamingEagles

londonpubman said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Don't count on interest rates falling that quickly...or England winning the Euros!

I am very confident on England winning the Euros, injuries permitting, though I have my concerns about T-Rex arms Pickford.

Sandpit

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

My thinking was the other way around, that there’s sufficient co-ordination between No.10 and the Palace over the King’s diary, so when he announced he would be on the other side of the world for most of October, the PM was okay with that.

FrankBooth

Why are people obsessing about interest rate cuts? Fixed deals already take into account an expectation that the base rate will fall a bit. Below 4% seems unlikely since the Bank has a 2% inflation target and the long term growth rate should be 1-2%.

People want free money!

rottenborough

How are PB's servers supposed to take the strain of General Election and POTUS 24 all within days of each other?

OldKingCole

Foxy said:

FPT on the 4 hour wait target in the NHS for A and E:

Yes, it was often gamed, as can be seen from graphs of waiting times, with a lot of discharges or admissions occurring with a few minutes to go before the wait time goes red.

This doesn't completely invalidate it. It acts as a canary in the coal mine measuring stress on the system. Hospitals meeting the 4 hour target were generally doing well on other measures, those failing were not. Pretty much the entire system is now failing.

I agree on not waiting for an ambulance if can get there under your own steam. Waiting times are dire and another sign of a system under desperate strain.

My carers report that their company has a sudden rush of hospital discharges, implying to me that wards are clearing beds to cope with a rush of A&E transfers.

MoonRabbit

On topic. Boris and May chose own election date, so the heading isn’t strictly true. The fixed term legislation was only as strong as a PM wishing to stick to it, in reality they could so comfortably by pass it.

northern_monkey

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Well yeah, there is that!

I hesitated to post that hearsay but the local govt bloke is very senior and does work very closely with central govt so I thought I’d drop it in here for shits and gigs, given the header.

And perhaps unsurprisingly the central govt bods also expect a Labour govt.

TheScreamingEagles

Bugger.

Tom Wilkinson has died.

eristdoof

OldKingCole said:

I hesitate to disagree on something like this OGH but I still suspect Sunk will hold on as long as he can do. And that means that this time next year we’ll be dusting off the campaign kit, sharpening pencils and, on this board, scrutinising every possible set of entrails!

Was Sunk a typo or a deliberate pun?

OldKingCole

eristdoof said:

OldKingCole said:

I hesitate to disagree on something like this OGH but I still suspect Sunk will hold on as long as he can do. And that means that this time next year we’ll be dusting off the campaign kit, sharpening pencils and, on this board, scrutinising every possible set of entrails!

Was Sunk a typo or a deliberate pun?

TBH it was a typo but then I thought……….

Carnyx

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

I rather think the Commonwealth thing started being arranged months if not years ago. The UK is quite a small state, you know, compared to some of the others.

FrankBooth

Foxy said:

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

Similarly daft to build his castle under the Heathrow flightpath.

Not really. There must have been other times he could visit Australia and New Zealand. It seems a bit ridiculous that his diary should be influencing when we can have an election. Also very odd to think that Sunak would be okay ruling out an October election.

rcs1000

FrankBooth said:

Why are people obsessing about interest rate cuts? Fixed deals already take into account an expectation that the base rate will fall a bit. Below 4% seems unlikely since the Bank has a 2% inflation target and the long term growth rate should be 1-2%.

People want free money!

A lot of people roll off fixed rate mortgages every year.

I'm just coming to the end of a five year mortgage, from 2019, and it is likely my repayments will jump sharply.

Nigelb

A New Kind of AI Copy Can Fully Replicate Famous People. The Law Is Powerless.
New AI-generated digital replicas of real experts expose an unnerving policy gray zone. Washington wants to fix it, but it’s not clear how.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/12/30/ai-psychologist-chatbot-00132682

Foxy

OldKingCole said:

Foxy said:

FPT on the 4 hour wait target in the NHS for A and E:

Yes, it was often gamed, as can be seen from graphs of waiting times, with a lot of discharges or admissions occurring with a few minutes to go before the wait time goes red.

This doesn't completely invalidate it. It acts as a canary in the coal mine measuring stress on the system. Hospitals meeting the 4 hour target were generally doing well on other measures, those failing were not. Pretty much the entire system is now failing.

I agree on not waiting for an ambulance if can get there under your own steam. Waiting times are dire and another sign of a system under desperate strain.

My carers report that their company has a sudden rush of hospital discharges, implying to me that wards are clearing beds to cope with a rush of A&E transfers.

These next two weeks are generally the worst for capacity issues. Its not going to be helped by the strike too.

Malmesbury

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Amazing

An Albanian Blackcab driver told me the exact same thing.

SeaShantyIrish2

Speaking of dates . . .

> Monday evening, January 15 = Iowa Republican precinct caucuses
- must be Iowa registered Republican voter on the night, but can registered and/or change reg at caucus.

> Tuesday, January 23 = New Hampshire presidential primary
- must be New Hampshire registered voter, with party primaries restricted to registered Dems and Reps; non-affiliated and new reg voters can change/declare party when they vote.
- note that Joe Biden is NOT on Dem ballot; instead, write-in campaign on his behalf.

> Saturday, February 3 = South Carolina Democratic presidential primary
- must be registered by Jan 4; if voting in Dem primary, can NOT vote in Rep primary

> Tuesday, February 6 = Nevada Democratic AND Republican (but see below) presidential primary
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/12465/638337564399270000

> Thursday, February 8 = Nevada Republican precinct caucuses
https://nevadagop.org/2024-presidential-caucus/

"Candidates that will appear ONLY on the First in the West [Republican] Caucus Ballot
Ryan Binkley
Former Governor Chris Christie
Governor Ron DeSantis
Vivek Ramaswamy
Former President Donald J. Trump

"Candidates that chose to appear on the state-run primary ballot did so knowing that decision meant they could not earn delegates by appearing on the caucus ballots. Those candidates are John Castro, Heath Fulkerson, Nikki Haley, Donald Kjornes, Hirsh Singh, Mike Pence and Tim Scott. Although both Mike Pence and Tim Scott have suspended their campaigns, they will still appear on the primary ballots due to a flaw in state law. “None of These Candidates” will also appear on the statewide primary ballots."

> Saturday, February 23 = South Carolina Republican primary
- must be registered to vote by Jan 25; if voted in Dem primary, can NOT vote in Rep primary.

SSI - PUNTERS TAKE HEED!

For example, note that Nikki Haley MIGHT (emphasis on conditional) get a respectable number of votes in the Nevada Republican presidential preference primary . . . and two days later get zero delegates at the GOP precinct caucuses, because under party rules she's ineligible to get any because her name was on the primary ballot! - Catch 22 Trump style.

FrankBooth

rcs1000 said:

FrankBooth said:

Why are people obsessing about interest rate cuts? Fixed deals already take into account an expectation that the base rate will fall a bit. Below 4% seems unlikely since the Bank has a 2% inflation target and the long term growth rate should be 1-2%.

People want free money!

A lot of people roll off fixed rate mortgages every year.

I'm just coming to the end of a five year mortgage, from 2019, and it is likely my repayments will jump sharply.

But I'm afraid that is simply allowing personal circumstances to cloud common sense. Do people really expect us to go back to near zero rates? Of course we might if another economic depression becomes likely, so here's hoping.

SeaShantyIrish2

Malmesbury said:

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Amazing

An Albanian Blackcab driver told me the exact same thing.

SO was your driver Muslim or Orthodox or Catholic? Tosk or Gheg?? Left-handed or right-footed???

ydoethur

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Bloody pint sized experts.

We should have gone metric.

Also, I'm surprised Sunak was in a pub where he met this bloke. Thought he was a teetotaller?

Foxy

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Speaking of dates . . .

> Monday evening, January 15 = Iowa Republican precinct caucuses
- must be Iowa registered Republican voter on the night, but can registered and/or change reg at caucus.

> Tuesday, January 23 = New Hampshire presidential primary
- must be New Hampshire registered voter, with party primaries restricted to registered Dems and Reps; non-affiliated and new reg voters can change/declare party when they vote.
- note that Joe Biden is NOT on Dem ballot; instead, write-in campaign on his behalf.

> Saturday, February 3 = South Carolina Democratic presidential primary
- must be registered by Jan 4; if voting in Dem primary, can NOT vote in Rep primary

> Tuesday, February 6 = Nevada Democratic AND Republican (but see below) presidential primary
https://www.nvsos.gov/sos/home/showpublisheddocument/12465/638337564399270000

> Thursday, February 8 = Nevada Republican precinct caucuses
https://nevadagop.org/2024-presidential-caucus/

"Candidates that will appear ONLY on the First in the West [Republican] Caucus Ballot
Ryan Binkley
Former Governor Chris Christie
Governor Ron DeSantis
Vivek Ramaswamy
Former President Donald J. Trump

"Candidates that chose to appear on the state-run primary ballot did so knowing that decision meant they could not earn delegates by appearing on the caucus ballots. Those candidates are John Castro, Heath Fulkerson, Nikki Haley, Donald Kjornes, Hirsh Singh, Mike Pence and Tim Scott. Although both Mike Pence and Tim Scott have suspended their campaigns, they will still appear on the primary ballots due to a flaw in state law. “None of These Candidates” will also appear on the statewide primary ballots."

> Saturday, February 23 = South Carolina Republican primary
- must be registered to vote by Jan 25; if voted in Dem primary, can NOT vote in Rep primary.

SSI - PUNTERS TAKE HEED!

For example, note that Nikki Haley MIGHT (emphasis on conditional) get a respectable number of votes in the Nevada Republican presidential preference primary . . . and two days later get zero delegates at the GOP precinct caucuses, because under party rules she's ineligible to get any because her name was on the primary ballot! - Catch 22 Trump style.

I know American elections are daft, but Nevada Republicans are taking the mickey!

FrankBooth

My 5 year ends in February.

Pro_Rata

rottenborough said:

How are PB's servers supposed to take the strain of General Election and POTUS 24 all within days of each other?

Excess of popcorn deaths may reduce the demand a little?

RobD

FrankBooth said:

Foxy said:

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

Similarly daft to build his castle under the Heathrow flightpath.

Not really. There must have been other times he could visit Australia and New Zealand. It seems a bit ridiculous that his diary should be influencing when we can have an election. Also very odd to think that Sunak would be okay ruling out an October election.

Counsellors of state can dissolve parliament, so the King doesn’t need to be in the country for an election to be called. The Queen Mum once dissolved parliament in the 70s.

https://www.thegazette.co.uk/London/issue/46205/

rcs1000

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

FrankBooth said:

Why are people obsessing about interest rate cuts? Fixed deals already take into account an expectation that the base rate will fall a bit. Below 4% seems unlikely since the Bank has a 2% inflation target and the long term growth rate should be 1-2%.

People want free money!

A lot of people roll off fixed rate mortgages every year.

I'm just coming to the end of a five year mortgage, from 2019, and it is likely my repayments will jump sharply.

But I'm afraid that is simply allowing personal circumstances to cloud common sense. Do people really expect us to go back to near zero rates? Of course we might if another economic depression becomes likely, so here's hoping.

I'm simply pointing out that if interest rates fall next year, that will mean smaller rises in mortgage payments than would otherwise be the case.

JosiasJessop

AverageNinja said:

Aliens are real.

Sting even wrote a song about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d27gTrPPAyk

The song about, and featuring, perhaps the most famous alumni from my old school...

ydoethur

JosiasJessop said:

AverageNinja said:

Aliens are real.

Sting even wrote a song about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d27gTrPPAyk

The song about, and featuring, perhaps the most famous alumni from my old school...

Really? I never knew Jeremy Snape was featured in a Sting album.

Pro_Rata

RobD said:

FrankBooth said:

Foxy said:

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

Similarly daft to build his castle under the Heathrow flightpath.

Not really. There must have been other times he could visit Australia and New Zealand. It seems a bit ridiculous that his diary should be influencing when we can have an election. Also very odd to think that Sunak would be okay ruling out an October election.

Counsellors of state can dissolve parliament, so the King doesn’t need to be in the country for an election to be called. The Queen Mum once dissolved parliament in the 70s.

https://www.thegazette.co.uk/London/issue/46205/

The household had to explain to her that the job did not require 1260 bottles of gin

FrankBooth

rcs1000 said:

FrankBooth said:

rcs1000 said:

FrankBooth said:

Why are people obsessing about interest rate cuts? Fixed deals already take into account an expectation that the base rate will fall a bit. Below 4% seems unlikely since the Bank has a 2% inflation target and the long term growth rate should be 1-2%.

People want free money!

A lot of people roll off fixed rate mortgages every year.

I'm just coming to the end of a five year mortgage, from 2019, and it is likely my repayments will jump sharply.

But I'm afraid that is simply allowing personal circumstances to cloud common sense. Do people really expect us to go back to near zero rates? Of course we might if another economic depression becomes likely, so here's hoping.

I'm simply pointing out that if interest rates fall next year, that will mean smaller rises in mortgage payments than would otherwise be the case.

That is true but some people seem to think that current rates are unusually high. They are not. The Bank has even allowed a situation where inflation is substantially higher than base rates which didn't used to be the case.

DecrepiterJohnL

TheScreamingEagles said:

ydoethur said:

When is His Nibs leaving the country for the Commonwealth bunfight?

I can't imagine the election will be called after that. Charles will be Mr Unhappy if the first and conceivably only election of his reign is officially declared by William.

CHOGM starts on the 21st October 2024, so I'd expect His Majesty to leave the UK around the 17th?

Edit - I think he's got a tour to Australia and NZ scheduled either side of that.

Whether the party that misled Her late Majesty cares about royal feelings is open to question.

Malmesbury

A

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Amazing

An Albanian Blackcab driver told me the exact same thing.

SO was your driver Muslim or Orthodox or Catholic? Tosk or Gheg?? Left-handed or right-footed???

A Protestant Catholic. Presumably ambidextrous when it comes to football.

Daveyboy1961

FrankBooth said:

My 5 year ends in February.

omg!!!!

isam

Is this accurate?

Can any Labour or Sir Keir Starmer supporter actually explain to me why copying what Wales has done is a good idea for the UK? 🤷🏻‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/ygKRJRPm07


https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1741144333036757303?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

FrankBooth

Daveyboy1961 said:

FrankBooth said:

My 5 year ends in February.

omg!!!!

If you had read the whole thing, rcs pointed out his 5 year fixed was about to end.

Verulamius

RobD said:

FrankBooth said:

Foxy said:

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

Similarly daft to build his castle under the Heathrow flightpath.

Not really. There must have been other times he could visit Australia and New Zealand. It seems a bit ridiculous that his diary should be influencing when we can have an election. Also very odd to think that Sunak would be okay ruling out an October election.

Counsellors of state can dissolve parliament, so the King doesn’t need to be in the country for an election to be called. The Queen Mum once dissolved parliament in the 70s.

https://www.thegazette.co.uk/London/issue/46205/

If the King and Queen are out of the country then the four other Counsellors of state currently are Prince of Wales, Duke of Sussex, Duke of York and Princes Beatrice.

Malmesbury

Pro_Rata said:

RobD said:

FrankBooth said:

Foxy said:

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

Similarly daft to build his castle under the Heathrow flightpath.

Not really. There must have been other times he could visit Australia and New Zealand. It seems a bit ridiculous that his diary should be influencing when we can have an election. Also very odd to think that Sunak would be okay ruling out an October election.

Counsellors of state can dissolve parliament, so the King doesn’t need to be in the country for an election to be called. The Queen Mum once dissolved parliament in the 70s.

https://www.thegazette.co.uk/London/issue/46205/

The household had to explain to her that the job did not require 1260 bottles of gin

Shirley, 1260 bottles of gin would just pickle Parliament, not disolve it?

SeaShantyIrish2

viewcode said:

I was first, by the way. It gives me a great glow of achievement.

Or flatulence. It's difficult to tell.

On contrary, quite easy.

IF there's musical accompaniment, then you're blowing your own . . . bassoon . . .

stodge

Afternoon all

Worth pointing out the local election round is those seats from 2020 where the election was deferred to 2021 because of the pandemic as well as some anomalies to do with local Government reorganisation as well as the usual third-ups.

The round also includes the London Mayoral and GLA elections plus the PCC elections in England and Wales.

North Tyneside and Rotherham are all-up next year while 30 Mets have one third of the seats up for grabs. That includes Dudley, Solihull and Walsall, the last three Conservative-controlled Metropolitan Boroughs but the Conservatives won't lose any of them.

Among the Unitaries electing all Councillors are Dorset which could well flip from Conservative to NOC or possibly LD and Wokingham where the LDs need two seats to take overall control.

Unitaries on third-ups include NE Lincolnshire and Thurrock where Labour will, I think, be expecting to take control from a Conservative administration which has had a few problems to say the least.

Of the 18 District authorities going for all-up elections, the Conservatives control eight while seven are NOC. Four Councils are doing half elections and they include Adur, Hastings and Oxford. That leaves 36 district councils on third-ups electing just under 500 seats - of these, only Broxbourne, Rushmoor and Reigate & Banstead are Conservative majority controlled.

The Mayoral elections include London and nine Combined Authority Mayors (three new ones, East Midlands, North East and York & North Yorkshire as well as a few other contests including the direct election of Council leaders in Norfolk and Suffolk.

I make it just under 3,000 seats in all compared with 7,500 last year so it's a smaller contest overall but most of England will get a vote even if just for a Mayor or PCC.

RobD

Verulamius said:

RobD said:

FrankBooth said:

Foxy said:

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

Similarly daft to build his castle under the Heathrow flightpath.

Not really. There must have been other times he could visit Australia and New Zealand. It seems a bit ridiculous that his diary should be influencing when we can have an election. Also very odd to think that Sunak would be okay ruling out an October election.

Counsellors of state can dissolve parliament, so the King doesn’t need to be in the country for an election to be called. The Queen Mum once dissolved parliament in the 70s.

https://www.thegazette.co.uk/London/issue/46205/

If the King and Queen are out of the country then the four other Counsellors of state currently are Prince of Wales, Duke of Sussex, Duke of York and Princes Beatrice.

Aren’t Anne and Edward also Counsellors of state now? There was an act of parliament in the last session making them such.

Daveyboy1961

FrankBooth said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

FrankBooth said:

My 5 year ends in February.

omg!!!!

If you had read the whole thing, rcs pointed out his 5 year fixed was about to end.

for rcs as well, omg!!!!

AverageNinja

isam said:

Is this accurate?

Can any Labour or Sir Keir Starmer supporter actually explain to me why copying what Wales has done is a good idea for the UK? 🤷🏻‍♂️ pic.twitter.com/ygKRJRPm07


https://x.com/timmyvoe240886/status/1741144333036757303?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Well they'd definitely be right to not copy anything the Tories have done.

jamesdoyle

Malmesbury said:

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Amazing

An Albanian Blackcab driver told me the exact same thing.

Don't believe a word of that: an Albanian taxi driver would tell you there won't be a general election because an ai-engineered lab leak of COVID will have killed everyone so the aliens can take over

Pro_Rata

Malmesbury said:

Pro_Rata said:

RobD said:

FrankBooth said:

Foxy said:

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

Similarly daft to build his castle under the Heathrow flightpath.

Not really. There must have been other times he could visit Australia and New Zealand. It seems a bit ridiculous that his diary should be influencing when we can have an election. Also very odd to think that Sunak would be okay ruling out an October election.

Counsellors of state can dissolve parliament, so the King doesn’t need to be in the country for an election to be called. The Queen Mum once dissolved parliament in the 70s.

https://www.thegazette.co.uk/London/issue/46205/

The household had to explain to her that the job did not require 1260 bottles of gin

Shirley, 1260 bottles of gin would just pickle Parliament, not disolve it?

They may not be dissolved, but they'd certainly be dissolute.

SeaShantyIrish2

Malmesbury said:

A

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Amazing

An Albanian Blackcab driver told me the exact same thing.

SO was your driver Muslim or Orthodox or Catholic? Tosk or Gheg?? Left-handed or right-footed???

A Protestant Catholic. Presumably ambidextrous when it comes to football.

Australian rules with Albanian regulations? Or visa versa??

GIN1138

I think TSE is right. Autumn (October) election leading to either a minority Labour government or a very small majority.

Sir Keir may be tempted to do a Wilson (in 66) and go for another election to increase his majority, maybe in Spring (May) 2025 while he should still be enjoying his honeymoon with the electorate?

We would then return to our normal cycle of Spring/Summer elections.

Northern_Al

northern_monkey said:

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Well yeah, there is that!

I hesitated to post that hearsay but the local govt bloke is very senior and does work very closely with central govt so I thought I’d drop it in here for shits and gigs, given the header.

And perhaps unsurprisingly the central govt bods also expect a Labour govt.

Sorry - I wasn't having a pop at you at all - just thought of a whimsical absurdity prompted by your post.

Malmesbury

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

A

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Amazing

An Albanian Blackcab driver told me the exact same thing.

SO was your driver Muslim or Orthodox or Catholic? Tosk or Gheg?? Left-handed or right-footed???

A Protestant Catholic. Presumably ambidextrous when it comes to football.

Australian rules with Albanian regulations? Or visa versa??

Gaelic?

AverageNinja

GIN1138 said:

I think TSE is right. Autumn (October) election leading to either a minority Labour government or a very small majority.

Sir Keir may be tempted to do a Wilson (in 66) and go for another election to increase his majority, maybe in Spring (May) 2025 while he should still be enjoying his honeymoon with the electorate?

We would then return to our normal cycle of Spring/Summer elections.

Very unlikely IMHO.

He will do the five years, watch the Tories self-destruct and then win a landslide in 2029.

SeaShantyIrish2

Just had something weird occur - in my previous email, first typed "your" then corrected it to "you're".

HOWEVER, the comment as published still said "your".

So tried to edit via the "edit" function. When that came up, the copy shown said "you're"! But posted version still "your".

WTF???

MoonRabbit

Off topic. The honest answer to “what was the cause of the Civil War?” is far more nuanced than saying in not many words, slavery. PB has done nothing yet to convince me otherwise. In fact the other way around, I suggest you all see it through the experience of Brexit to understand what the fight was about.

If the dividing line is strictly slavery or not to slavery, then why is a slave state like Delaware fighting for the Union? Because the dividing line wasn’t abolition of slavery, but happy or not to be in a federal tax regime.

There were numerous fault lines, but the actual root cause of the conflict is the fundamental principle of federal versus state, some wishing not to be in a federal economic commonwealth at all, that is taxed down here for a new harbour to be built up there, to the extent they would prefer their own governmental relationship, as in a separate country. And wanting out on that principle is such a feasible and reasoned proposition, on what grounds were they not allowed to breakaway and form their own non federal country without it coming to such a bloody conflict?

To say a “A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand' if far from meaningless spin, it literally meant that success comes from sticking together and to do anything else is to invoke disaster. But here’s the kicker, it was actually a lie, it was false ideology, the sort Brexit has crushed, to actually believe A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand . A Union cause on basis of a lie because the truth was a house divided could have gone separate ways and not been a disaster. Just like Brexit isn’t a disaster, but a huge opportunity.

The EU doesn’t even have federal taxation, but it was still too federal for many in UK. So we should have more respect for the confederate states “brexit yearnings” when we answer what the Civil War was about.

The American Civil War wasn’t about slavery, it was about Brexit. I feel good about putting you all correct on this. 😌

MattW

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Well yeah, there is that!

I hesitated to post that hearsay but the local govt bloke is very senior and does work very closely with central govt so I thought I’d drop it in here for shits and gigs, given the header.

And perhaps unsurprisingly the central govt bods also expect a Labour govt.

Sorry - I wasn't having a pop at you at all - just thought of a whimsical absurdity prompted by your post.

But have you danced with the Prince of Wales?

(Assuming that this quip has not been made yet, or at least less than 6 times.

jamesdoyle

JosiasJessop said:

AverageNinja said:

Aliens are real.

Sting even wrote a song about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d27gTrPPAyk

The song about, and featuring, perhaps the most famous alumni from my old school...

Alumnus. Sorry.

FrankBooth

Daveyboy1961 said:

FrankBooth said:

Daveyboy1961 said:

FrankBooth said:

My 5 year ends in February.

omg!!!!

If you had read the whole thing, rcs pointed out his 5 year fixed was about to end.

for rcs as well, omg!!!!

I can only speak for myself but I suspect it's a very modest abode by pb standards. I'm also paying down a fair bit of the capital which helps. A consequence of the fact I only really spend money on necessities (and the odd takeaway).

SeaShantyIrish2

jamesdoyle said:

JosiasJessop said:

AverageNinja said:

Aliens are real.

Sting even wrote a song about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d27gTrPPAyk

The song about, and featuring, perhaps the most famous alumni from my old school...

Alumnus. Sorry.

Now that he has some free time, perhaps Boris Johnson could tutor you on finer points of Latin?

Or perhaps not.

Verulamius

RobD said:

Verulamius said:

RobD said:

FrankBooth said:

Foxy said:

FrankBooth said:

Sandpit said:

As first posted yesterday, but on topic for this thread:

I’ve always thought it was going to be 24th October, but am now leaning towards 2nd May.

The changing factors being the expected shellacking at the local elections, the bringing forward of the NI cut to January, and the King announcing plans to be overseas for most of October.

Just about the only black swan in the government’s favour could be England winning the Euros, or perhaps rapidly falling interest rates making mortgages cheaper, but many people will be still on fixed rates.

Was it really prudent of the King to make plans to be overseas throughout a month when he must have known an election was likely?

Similarly daft to build his castle under the Heathrow flightpath.

Not really. There must have been other times he could visit Australia and New Zealand. It seems a bit ridiculous that his diary should be influencing when we can have an election. Also very odd to think that Sunak would be okay ruling out an October election.

Counsellors of state can dissolve parliament, so the King doesn’t need to be in the country for an election to be called. The Queen Mum once dissolved parliament in the 70s.

https://www.thegazette.co.uk/London/issue/46205/

If the King and Queen are out of the country then the four other Counsellors of state currently are Prince of Wales, Duke of Sussex, Duke of York and Princes Beatrice.

Aren’t Anne and Edward also Counsellors of state now? There was an act of parliament in the last session making them such.

Yes https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/47/2022-12-07/data.html


The royal website needs to be updated.

https://www.royal.uk/counsellors-state

spudgfsh

AverageNinja said:

GIN1138 said:

I think TSE is right. Autumn (October) election leading to either a minority Labour government or a very small majority.

Sir Keir may be tempted to do a Wilson (in 66) and go for another election to increase his majority, maybe in Spring (May) 2025 while he should still be enjoying his honeymoon with the electorate?

We would then return to our normal cycle of Spring/Summer elections.

Very unlikely IMHO.

He will do the five years, watch the Tories self-destruct and then win a landslide in 2029.

if SKS has a working majority then he'll aim to go until May 2028 (polling dependent). if he's reliant on LD/SNP then he'll go earlier.

If Reform put up a full slate of candidates next time SKS will more than easily get a working majority.

Pro_Rata

stodge said:

Afternoon all

Worth pointing out the local election round is those seats from 2020 where the election was deferred to 2021 because of the pandemic as well as some anomalies to do with local Government reorganisation as well as the usual third-ups.

The round also includes the London Mayoral and GLA elections plus the PCC elections in England and Wales.

North Tyneside and Rotherham are all-up next year while 30 Mets have one third of the seats up for grabs. That includes Dudley, Solihull and Walsall, the last three Conservative-controlled Metropolitan Boroughs but the Conservatives won't lose any of them.

Among the Unitaries electing all Councillors are Dorset which could well flip from Conservative to NOC or possibly LD and Wokingham where the LDs need two seats to take overall control.

Unitaries on third-ups include NE Lincolnshire and Thurrock where Labour will, I think, be expecting to take control from a Conservative administration which has had a few problems to say the least.

Of the 18 District authorities going for all-up elections, the Conservatives control eight while seven are NOC. Four Councils are doing half elections and they include Adur, Hastings and Oxford. That leaves 36 district councils on third-ups electing just under 500 seats - of these, only Broxbourne, Rushmoor and Reigate & Banstead are Conservative majority controlled.

The Mayoral elections include London and nine Combined Authority Mayors (three new ones, East Midlands, North East and York & North Yorkshire as well as a few other contests including the direct election of Council leaders in Norfolk and Suffolk.

I make it just under 3,000 seats in all compared with 7,500 last year so it's a smaller contest overall but most of England will get a vote even if just for a Mayor or PCC.

Of those 3000, the most interesting number will be for Con defences. Even beyond the metros, the unitaries and districts going by thirds tend townier than their 1 in 4 peers. Quite plausible the number of Con defences, and thus the absolute maximum scale of losses even in Armageddon mode, is below.or around their net losses last year.

geoffw

jamesdoyle said:

JosiasJessop said:

AverageNinja said:

Aliens are real.

Sting even wrote a song about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d27gTrPPAyk

The song about, and featuring, perhaps the most famous alumni from my old school...

Alumnus. Sorry.

If the person in question has 'they' as preferred pronoun then perhaps alumni would be right

Malmesbury

MoonRabbit said:

Off topic. The honest answer to “what was the cause of the Civil War?” is far more nuanced than saying in not many words, slavery. PB has done nothing yet to convince me otherwise. In fact the other way around, I suggest you all see it through the experience of Brexit to understand what the fight was about.

If the dividing line is strictly slavery or not to slavery, then why is a slave state like Delaware fighting for the Union? Because the dividing line wasn’t abolition of slavery, but happy or not to be in a federal tax regime.

There were numerous fault lines, but the actual root cause of the conflict is the fundamental principle of federal versus state, some wishing not to be in a federal economic commonwealth at all, that is taxed down here for a new harbour to be built up there, to the extent they would prefer their own governmental relationship, as in a separate country. And wanting out on that principle is such a feasible and reasoned proposition, on what grounds were they not allowed to breakaway and form their own non federal country without it coming to such a bloody conflict?

To say a “A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand' if far from meaningless spin, it literally meant that success comes from sticking together and to do anything else is to invoke disaster. But here’s the kicker, it was actually a lie, it was false ideology, the sort Brexit has crushed, to actually believe A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand . A Union cause on basis of a lie because the truth was a house divided could have gone separate ways and not been a disaster. Just like Brexit isn’t a disaster, but a huge opportunity.

The EU doesn’t even have federal taxation, but it was still too federal for many in UK. So we should have more respect for the confederate states “brexit yearnings” when we answer what the Civil War was about.

The American Civil War wasn’t about slavery, it was about Brexit. I feel good about putting you all correct on this. 😌

Sigh.

The border states divided according to the dominance of slavery in their society.

Throughout the South, there were those utterly opposed to slavery and the Confederacy.

Look up why there is a West Virginia. Or the State of Jones….

Even in the Deep South there were many who were anti-slavery and “Union men” - violence and coercion was used to keep them “down”.

No_Offence_Alan

I am a fan of fixed term parliaments. The choice of election date is one fewer thing that the government can fuck up.

SeaShantyIrish2

MoonRabbit said:

Off topic. The honest answer to “what was the cause of the Civil War?” is far more nuanced than saying in not many words, slavery. PB has done nothing yet to convince me otherwise. In fact the other way around, I suggest you all see it through the experience of Brexit to understand what the fight was about.

If the dividing line is strictly slavery or not to slavery, then why is a slave state like Delaware fighting for the Union? Because the dividing line wasn’t abolition of slavery, but happy or not to be in a federal tax regime.

There were numerous fault lines, but the actual root cause of the conflict is the fundamental principle of federal versus state, some wishing not to be in a federal economic commonwealth at all, that is taxed down here for a new harbour to be built up there, to the extent they would prefer their own governmental relationship, as in a separate country. And wanting out on that principle is such a feasible and reasoned proposition, on what grounds were they not allowed to breakaway and form their own non federal country without it coming to such a bloody conflict?

To say a “A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand' if far from meaningless spin, it literally meant that success comes from sticking together and to do anything else is to invoke disaster. But here’s the kicker, it was actually a lie, it was false ideology, the sort Brexit has crushed, to actually believe A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand . A Union cause on basis of a lie because the truth was a house divided could have gone separate ways and not been a disaster. Just like Brexit isn’t a disaster, but a huge opportunity.

The EU doesn’t even have federal taxation, but it was still too federal for many in UK. So we should have more respect for the confederate states “brexit yearnings” when we answer what the Civil War was about.

The American Civil War wasn’t about slavery, it was about Brexit. I feel good about putting you all correct on this. 😌

Abraham Lincoln was a pro-Brexiteer before his time. Certainly disapproved of close coordination between France and UK in their joint policy of promoting American disunion, for mutual fun & profit.

spudgfsh

Pro_Rata said:

stodge said:

Afternoon all

Worth pointing out the local election round is those seats from 2020 where the election was deferred to 2021 because of the pandemic as well as some anomalies to do with local Government reorganisation as well as the usual third-ups.

The round also includes the London Mayoral and GLA elections plus the PCC elections in England and Wales.

North Tyneside and Rotherham are all-up next year while 30 Mets have one third of the seats up for grabs. That includes Dudley, Solihull and Walsall, the last three Conservative-controlled Metropolitan Boroughs but the Conservatives won't lose any of them.

Among the Unitaries electing all Councillors are Dorset which could well flip from Conservative to NOC or possibly LD and Wokingham where the LDs need two seats to take overall control.

Unitaries on third-ups include NE Lincolnshire and Thurrock where Labour will, I think, be expecting to take control from a Conservative administration which has had a few problems to say the least.

Of the 18 District authorities going for all-up elections, the Conservatives control eight while seven are NOC. Four Councils are doing half elections and they include Adur, Hastings and Oxford. That leaves 36 district councils on third-ups electing just under 500 seats - of these, only Broxbourne, Rushmoor and Reigate & Banstead are Conservative majority controlled.

The Mayoral elections include London and nine Combined Authority Mayors (three new ones, East Midlands, North East and York & North Yorkshire as well as a few other contests including the direct election of Council leaders in Norfolk and Suffolk.

I make it just under 3,000 seats in all compared with 7,500 last year so it's a smaller contest overall but most of England will get a vote even if just for a Mayor or PCC.

Of those 3000, the most interesting number will be for Con defences. Even beyond the metros, the unitaries and districts going by thirds tend townier than their 1 in 4 peers. Quite plausible the number of Con defences, and thus the absolute maximum scale of losses even in Armageddon mode, is below.or around their net losses last year.

Their big defences are actually some of the mayors (Andy Street being the highest profile)

williamglenn

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

jamesdoyle said:

JosiasJessop said:

AverageNinja said:

Aliens are real.

Sting even wrote a song about it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d27gTrPPAyk

The song about, and featuring, perhaps the most famous alumni from my old school...

Alumnus. Sorry.

Now that he has some free time, perhaps Boris Johnson could tutor you on finer points of Latin?

Or perhaps not.

Would it violate your worldview in some way if Boris Johnson did in fact have decent Latin? Why have you invented this conspiracy theory?

SeaShantyIrish2

Malmesbury said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

A

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Amazing

An Albanian Blackcab driver told me the exact same thing.

SO was your driver Muslim or Orthodox or Catholic? Tosk or Gheg?? Left-handed or right-footed???

A Protestant Catholic. Presumably ambidextrous when it comes to football.

Australian rules with Albanian regulations? Or visa versa??

Gaelic?

Gaelic-Illyrian.

spudgfsh

No_Offence_Alan said:

I am a fan of fixed term parliaments. The choice of election date is one fewer thing that the government can fuck up.

I kind of agree there. fixed parliament elections every 4 years with fixed devolved and locals in the 3 other years

Malmesbury

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

A

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Malmesbury said:

Northern_Al said:

northern_monkey said:

Before Xmas I was speaking to someone who’d been speaking to someone who’s a senior local government guy and has close ties to central govt bods, and apparently they’re working on the assumption of an autumn election.

I was speaking to a bloke in the pub today who said that another bloke in the pub had told him that he didn't have a clue when the election would be.

Amazing

An Albanian Blackcab driver told me the exact same thing.

SO was your driver Muslim or Orthodox or Catholic? Tosk or Gheg?? Left-handed or right-footed???

A Protestant Catholic. Presumably ambidextrous when it comes to football.

Australian rules with Albanian regulations? Or visa versa??

Gaelic?

Gaelic-Illyrian.

Fuck it. Let’s start a league and selling franchises.