Perhaps the most interesting thing about the blurb on Nevada Republican Party website, beyond even their "the fix is in" delegate selection "rules" is that they refer to #45 (the guy for whom the fix has been finagled) as "Former President Donald J. Trump".
Former?!?! So NV GOP has been taken over by freaking Libtards!?!?
I am a fan of fixed term parliaments. The choice of election date is one fewer thing that the government can fuck up.
But when you run into trouble with that is when an election results in NOM and you're left with Parliament becoming paralyzed for years like we saw in that god awful 2017 to 2019 Parliament.
If you had read the whole thing, rcs pointed out his 5 year fixed was about to end.
for rcs as well, omg!!!!
I can only speak for myself but I suspect it's a very modest abode by pb standards. I'm also paying down a fair bit of the capital which helps. A consequence of the fact I only really spend money on necessities (and the odd takeaway).
I'm glad I don't have to worry about mortgages now. I did my worrying in the late eighties through to the noughties.
I think TSE is right. Autumn (October) election leading to either a minority Labour government or a very small majority.
Sir Keir may be tempted to do a Wilson (in 66) and go for another election to increase his majority, maybe in Spring (May) 2025 while he should still be enjoying his honeymoon with the electorate?
We would then return to our normal cycle of Spring/Summer elections.
What happens between May and October to improve the Tory standings in the polls?
I’ve got long Summer and Autumn period set against the Tories local election disaster, and looking like electoral failures, and has beens running scared from calling an election. That period allowing the opposition parties to convince voters any tax cuts have actually been funded by borrowing, and the already high tax burden, not from growth - tax cuts whilst social services, NHS, education, the environment, infrastructure is actually falling apart - and the longer with tax cuts in their pockets the more voters won’t feel better off. That summer and autumn period more government promises can not go anywhere positive, could fall apart, such as immigration, NHS, borrowing, growth. And stopping the boats. And more light can be shone upon government incompetence in this parliament, not least the abuse of covid crisis to create a secret and corrupt fast lane to government money, that’s still largely unexplored.
All these things will or likely come to pass to hurt the Conservatives next Summer and Autumn, it’s based on the understanding the Tory electoral battle for votes and best possible election result is not a battle between Tory and Labour but between Tory and Reform - the longer the gap is between now and the next election, the greater likelihood is Tory’s shipping more votes to Reform, not winning them back.
I am a fan of fixed term parliaments. The choice of election date is one fewer thing that the government can fuck up.
But when you run into trouble with that is when an election results in NOM and you're left with Parliament becoming paralyzed for years like we saw in that god awful 2017 to 2019 Parliament.
Somehow they managed it in 2010-2015. It depends if the largest party is prepared to work with others (and vice versa).
I think TSE is right. Autumn (October) election leading to either a minority Labour government or a very small majority.
Sir Keir may be tempted to do a Wilson (in 66) and go for another election to increase his majority, maybe in Spring (May) 2025 while he should still be enjoying his honeymoon with the electorate?
We would then return to our normal cycle of Spring/Summer elections.
What happens between May and October to improve the Tory standings in the polls?
I’ve got long Summer and Autumn period set against the Tories local election disaster, and looking like electoral failures and had beens, running scared from calling an election. That period allowing the opposition parties to convince voters any tax cuts have actually been funded by borrowing, and the already high tax burden, not from growth - tax cuts whilst social services, NHS, education, the environment, infrastructure is actually falling apart - and the longer with tax cuts in their pockets the more voters won’t feel better off. That summer and autumn period more government promises can not go anywhere or fall apart, such as immigration, NHS, borrowing, growth. And stopping the boats. And more light can be shone upon government incompetence in this parliament, not least the abuse of covid crisis to create a secret and corrupt fast lane to government money, that’s still largely unexplored.
All these things will or likely come to pass to hurt the Conservatives next Summer and Autumn, it’s based on the understanding the Tory electoral battle for votes and best possible election result is not a battle between Tory and Labour but between Tory and Reform - the longer the gap is between now and the next election, the greater likelihood is Tory’s shipping more votes to Reform, not winning them back.
I am a fan of fixed term parliaments. The choice of election date is one fewer thing that the government can fuck up.
But when you run into trouble with that is when an election results in NOM and you're left with Parliament becoming paralyzed for years like we saw in that god awful 2017 to 2019 Parliament.
I am a fan of fixed term parliaments. The choice of election date is one fewer thing that the government can fuck up.
But when you run into trouble with that is when an election results in NOM and you're left with Parliament becoming paralyzed for years like we saw in that god awful 2017 to 2019 Parliament.
Why are people obsessing about interest rate cuts? Fixed deals already take into account an expectation that the base rate will fall a bit. Below 4% seems unlikely since the Bank has a 2% inflation target and the long term growth rate should be 1-2%.
People want free money!
A lot of people roll off fixed rate mortgages every year.
I'm just coming to the end of a five year mortgage, from 2019, and it is likely my repayments will jump sharply.
But I'm afraid that is simply allowing personal circumstances to cloud common sense. Do people really expect us to go back to near zero rates? Of course we might if another economic depression becomes likely, so here's hoping.
I don't think people think that deeply: they merely note that they have less disposable income than they did previously.
It would be in the national interest to hold the election in the Spring. We need a PM not knackered from an election campaign to deal with the nonsense across the pond from Nov-Jan.
Will this government act in the national interest? Nope. Not a chance.
I am a fan of fixed term parliaments. The choice of election date is one fewer thing that the government can fuck up.
But when you run into trouble with that is when an election results in NOM and you're left with Parliament becoming paralyzed for years like we saw in that god awful 2017 to 2019 Parliament.
Somehow they managed it in 2010-2015. It depends if the largest party is prepared to work with others (and vice versa).
Right, and the theory is that it acts as an incentive for the parties to work together for N years rather than the largest party maneouvering for political position for nine months and then calling another election.
I am a fan of fixed term parliaments. The choice of election date is one fewer thing that the government can fuck up.
But when you run into trouble with that is when an election results in NOM and you're left with Parliament becoming paralyzed for years like we saw in that god awful 2017 to 2019 Parliament.
There won’t always be a referendum outcome to try and kick into the long grass
Off topic. The honest answer to “what was the cause of the Civil War?” is far more nuanced than saying in not many words, slavery. PB has done nothing yet to convince me otherwise. In fact the other way around, I suggest you all see it through the experience of Brexit to understand what the fight was about.
If the dividing line is strictly slavery or not to slavery, then why is a slave state like Delaware fighting for the Union? Because the dividing line wasn’t abolition of slavery, but happy or not to be in a federal tax regime.
There were numerous fault lines, but the actual root cause of the conflict is the fundamental principle of federal versus state, some wishing not to be in a federal economic commonwealth at all, that is taxed down here for a new harbour to be built up there, to the extent they would prefer their own governmental relationship, as in a separate country. And wanting out on that principle is such a feasible and reasoned proposition, on what grounds were they not allowed to breakaway and form their own non federal country without it coming to such a bloody conflict?
To say a “A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand' if far from meaningless spin, it literally meant that success comes from sticking together and to do anything else is to invoke disaster. But here’s the kicker, it was actually a lie, it was false ideology, the sort Brexit has crushed, to actually believe A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand . A Union cause on basis of a lie because the truth was a house divided could have gone separate ways and not been a disaster. Just like Brexit isn’t a disaster, but a huge opportunity.
The EU doesn’t even have federal taxation, but it was still too federal for many in UK. So we should have more respect for the confederate states “brexit yearnings” when we answer what the Civil War was about.
The American Civil War wasn’t about slavery, it was about Brexit. I feel good about putting you all correct on this. 😌
Sigh.
The border states divided according to the dominance of slavery in their society.
Throughout the South, there were those utterly opposed to slavery and the Confederacy.
Look up why there is a West Virginia. Or the State of Jones….
Even in the Deep South there were many who were anti-slavery and “Union men” - violence and coercion was used to keep them “down”.
Also plenty of Confederate sympathizers and/or appeasers in North - aka "Copperheads"; note that in 1861 the then-mayor of New York City advocated making NYC (then just Manhattan) a neutral quasi-independent statelet.
And even more pro-Southerners in Border states, which furnished plenty of soldiers and other resources for Confederacy; for example, almost certainly more West Virginians enlisted with CSA than with USA.
As for MoonRabbit's basic point, that "A House Divided" could have split with "success" however defined, well THAT's been a major topic of American history and historiography ever since before Fort Sumter. Perhaps a wee bit more involved (far less literal) than she suggests!
Posted this a couple days ago, but link below re: interesting alternative history written in early 1960s in time for the US Civil War Centennial. It's dated but still worth considering:
Greatest weakness, shared by virtually all US Civil War histories of that period = minimizing/marginalizing of the African American experience, for Blacks AND for entire nation.
Peter Bone hopes to add to the gaiety of the nation (and betting opportunities) by standing at the by-election, either as an Independent or for Reform.
Why are people obsessing about interest rate cuts? Fixed deals already take into account an expectation that the base rate will fall a bit. Below 4% seems unlikely since the Bank has a 2% inflation target and the long term growth rate should be 1-2%.
People want free money!
A lot of people roll off fixed rate mortgages every year.
I'm just coming to the end of a five year mortgage, from 2019, and it is likely my repayments will jump sharply.
But I'm afraid that is simply allowing personal circumstances to cloud common sense. Do people really expect us to go back to near zero rates? Of course we might if another economic depression becomes likely, so here's hoping.
I don't think people think that deeply: they merely note that they have less disposable income than they did previously.
The Bank of England post-King doesn't really seemed to have helped here with its messaging. Near zero rates were not a new normal.
I think TSE is right. Autumn (October) election leading to either a minority Labour government or a very small majority.
Sir Keir may be tempted to do a Wilson (in 66) and go for another election to increase his majority, maybe in Spring (May) 2025 while he should still be enjoying his honeymoon with the electorate?
We would then return to our normal cycle of Spring/Summer elections.
Very unlikely IMHO.
He will do the five years, watch the Tories self-destruct and then win a landslide in 2029.
if SKS has a working majority then he'll aim to go until May 2028 (polling dependent). if he's reliant on LD/SNP then he'll go earlier.
If Reform put up a full slate of candidates next time SKS will more than easily get a working majority.
I think it’s very possible SKS gets a larger majority than Tony Blair, in 2024
Good god. Ozempic is effective but not THAT effective
Is he sick?
Ozempic plus a regular diet for the first time in decades, rather than snatched fast food and booze while in office? ETA or you are right and he could be unwell but surely we'd have heard if he had some debilitating disease.
I think TSE is right. Autumn (October) election leading to either a minority Labour government or a very small majority.
Sir Keir may be tempted to do a Wilson (in 66) and go for another election to increase his majority, maybe in Spring (May) 2025 while he should still be enjoying his honeymoon with the electorate?
We would then return to our normal cycle of Spring/Summer elections.
Very unlikely IMHO.
He will do the five years, watch the Tories self-destruct and then win a landslide in 2029.
if SKS has a working majority then he'll aim to go until May 2028 (polling dependent). if he's reliant on LD/SNP then he'll go earlier.
If Reform put up a full slate of candidates next time SKS will more than easily get a working majority.
I think it’s very possible SKS gets a larger majority than Tony Blair, in 2024
Coming from about 80 seats further back, after the electoral disaster that was Corbyn?
Off topic. The honest answer to “what was the cause of the Civil War?” is far more nuanced than saying in not many words, slavery. PB has done nothing yet to convince me otherwise. In fact the other way around, I suggest you all see it through the experience of Brexit to understand what the fight was about.
If the dividing line is strictly slavery or not to slavery, then why is a slave state like Delaware fighting for the Union? Because the dividing line wasn’t abolition of slavery, but happy or not to be in a federal tax regime.
There were numerous fault lines, but the actual root cause of the conflict is the fundamental principle of federal versus state, some wishing not to be in a federal economic commonwealth at all, that is taxed down here for a new harbour to be built up there, to the extent they would prefer their own governmental relationship, as in a separate country. And wanting out on that principle is such a feasible and reasoned proposition, on what grounds were they not allowed to breakaway and form their own non federal country without it coming to such a bloody conflict?
To say a “A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand' if far from meaningless spin, it literally meant that success comes from sticking together and to do anything else is to invoke disaster. But here’s the kicker, it was actually a lie, it was false ideology, the sort Brexit has crushed, to actually believe A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand . A Union cause on basis of a lie because the truth was a house divided could have gone separate ways and not been a disaster. Just like Brexit isn’t a disaster, but a huge opportunity.
The EU doesn’t even have federal taxation, but it was still too federal for many in UK. So we should have more respect for the confederate states “brexit yearnings” when we answer what the Civil War was about.
The American Civil War wasn’t about slavery, it was about Brexit. I feel good about putting you all correct on this. 😌
Abraham Lincoln was a pro-Brexiteer before his time. Certainly disapproved of close coordination between France and UK in their joint policy of promoting American disunion, for mutual fun & profit.
Peter Bone hopes to add to the gaiety of the nation (and betting opportunities) by standing at the by-election, either as an Independent or for Reform.
I think TSE is right. Autumn (October) election leading to either a minority Labour government or a very small majority.
Sir Keir may be tempted to do a Wilson (in 66) and go for another election to increase his majority, maybe in Spring (May) 2025 while he should still be enjoying his honeymoon with the electorate?
We would then return to our normal cycle of Spring/Summer elections.
Very unlikely IMHO.
He will do the five years, watch the Tories self-destruct and then win a landslide in 2029.
That depends on who the Tories choose as leader. Surely they won't move to the right, a centrist could take advantage of the inevitable financial problems that Labour will have. But will there be any centrists left?
Those shocked by Boris's new appearance may not be aware of the maxim "you should lose weight if under 50 and put weight on over 50". In your fifties the collagen in your skin is lessened and disorganised, losing its elasticity. Weight loss created by diets in older people just results in saggy skin, which only works if you are attracted to sharpei dogs. If you are over 50 don't take ozempic, go swimming instead.
Those shocked by Boris's new appearance may not be aware of the maxim "you should lose weight if under 50 and put weight on over 50". In your fifties the collagen in your skin is lessened and disorganised, losing its elasticity. Weight loss created by diets in older people just results in saggy skin, which only works if you are attracted to sharpei dogs. If you are over 50 don't take ozempic, go swimming instead.
The best example of this was, of course, Nigel Lawson. Though he did live to be 91, probably as a result.
Those shocked by Boris's new appearance may not be aware of the maxim "you should lose weight if under 50 and put weight on over 50". In your fifties the collagen in your skin is lessened and disorganised, losing its elasticity. Weight loss created by diets in older people just results in saggy skin, which only works if you are attracted to sharpei dogs. If you are over 50 don't take ozempic, go swimming instead.
The best example of this was, of course, Nigel Lawson. Though he did live to be 91, probably as a result.
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
I don't know whether to believe this on the grounds it shows I'm right about Sunak still being a creature of Cummings, or disbelieve it on the grounds Cummings has never told the truth about anything in his life.
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
Fixed term parliaments were a bad idea that are out of tune with the flexible nature of our constitution.
I am quite content with the PM exercising prerogative power to determine the election date. If the people think the PM is trying to game the system for advantage and they dislike that, then they are free to express their dissatisfaction through their vote.
We all have out favourite columnists. Leon's choice is characteristic.
I’m hoping he writes a column about the inability of certain types to admit obvious likely things: eg lab leak - because these facts make them uncomfortable
The Tribalisation of Truth might be a good title
And, for the record, all sides do it. Extreme Brexiteers demanded their own warped reality where Brexit would be painless and purely brilliant. Despite this being obvious shite
I think TSE is right. Autumn (October) election leading to either a minority Labour government or a very small majority.
Sir Keir may be tempted to do a Wilson (in 66) and go for another election to increase his majority, maybe in Spring (May) 2025 while he should still be enjoying his honeymoon with the electorate?
We would then return to our normal cycle of Spring/Summer elections.
Very unlikely IMHO.
He will do the five years, watch the Tories self-destruct and then win a landslide in 2029.
if SKS has a working majority then he'll aim to go until May 2028 (polling dependent). if he's reliant on LD/SNP then he'll go earlier.
If Reform put up a full slate of candidates next time SKS will more than easily get a working majority.
I think it’s very possible SKS gets a larger majority than Tony Blair, in 2024
Coming from about 80 seats further back, after the electoral disaster that was Corbyn?
An interesting video of the Sentencing Remarks by Judge Robert Altham at Preston Crown Court, jailing hospital staff who had administered sedatives to patients to 'keep them quiet', stolen prescription medicines, and attempted to pervert the course of justice.
I haven't seen a detailed exposition of concurrent and consecutive prison sentencing, and reductions / allowances across several defendants and a large number of counts before. This part is in the last few minutes of the vid.
I think TSE is right. Autumn (October) election leading to either a minority Labour government or a very small majority.
Sir Keir may be tempted to do a Wilson (in 66) and go for another election to increase his majority, maybe in Spring (May) 2025 while he should still be enjoying his honeymoon with the electorate?
We would then return to our normal cycle of Spring/Summer elections.
What happens between May and October to improve the Tory standings in the polls?
I’ve got long Summer and Autumn period set against the Tories local election disaster, and looking like electoral failures and had beens, running scared from calling an election. That period allowing the opposition parties to convince voters any tax cuts have actually been funded by borrowing, and the already high tax burden, not from growth - tax cuts whilst social services, NHS, education, the environment, infrastructure is actually falling apart - and the longer with tax cuts in their pockets the more voters won’t feel better off. That summer and autumn period more government promises can not go anywhere or fall apart, such as immigration, NHS, borrowing, growth. And stopping the boats. And more light can be shone upon government incompetence in this parliament, not least the abuse of covid crisis to create a secret and corrupt fast lane to government money, that’s still largely unexplored.
All these things will or likely come to pass to hurt the Conservatives next Summer and Autumn, it’s based on the understanding the Tory electoral battle for votes and best possible election result is not a battle between Tory and Labour but between Tory and Reform - the longer the gap is between now and the next election, the greater likelihood is Tory’s shipping more votes to Reform, not winning them back.
Off topic. The honest answer to “what was the cause of the Civil War?” is far more nuanced than saying in not many words, slavery. PB has done nothing yet to convince me otherwise. In fact the other way around, I suggest you all see it through the experience of Brexit to understand what the fight was about.
If the dividing line is strictly slavery or not to slavery, then why is a slave state like Delaware fighting for the Union? Because the dividing line wasn’t abolition of slavery, but happy or not to be in a federal tax regime.
There were numerous fault lines, but the actual root cause of the conflict is the fundamental principle of federal versus state, some wishing not to be in a federal economic commonwealth at all, that is taxed down here for a new harbour to be built up there, to the extent they would prefer their own governmental relationship, as in a separate country. And wanting out on that principle is such a feasible and reasoned proposition, on what grounds were they not allowed to breakaway and form their own non federal country without it coming to such a bloody conflict?
To say a “A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand' if far from meaningless spin, it literally meant that success comes from sticking together and to do anything else is to invoke disaster. But here’s the kicker, it was actually a lie, it was false ideology, the sort Brexit has crushed, to actually believe A House Divided Against Itself Cannot Stand . A Union cause on basis of a lie because the truth was a house divided could have gone separate ways and not been a disaster. Just like Brexit isn’t a disaster, but a huge opportunity.
The EU doesn’t even have federal taxation, but it was still too federal for many in UK. So we should have more respect for the confederate states “brexit yearnings” when we answer what the Civil War was about.
The American Civil War wasn’t about slavery, it was about Brexit. I feel good about putting you all correct on this. 😌
Abraham Lincoln was a pro-Brexiteer before his time. Certainly disapproved of close coordination between France and UK in their joint policy of promoting American disunion, for mutual fun & profit.
California certainly WAS very important in the Compromise of 1850.
However, CA was already part of the Union a per Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo between US and Mexico in 1848, a decade before election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860.
As noted in your link, CA became a state in 1850 by act of Congress, as part of the Compromise of 1850. It entered the Union as a Free State, undivided, something desired by the North and also, it appears, by the majority of eligible voters (White male US citizens 21-plus) then surging into California thanks to the Gold Rush.
Many Southerners had wanted extension of slavery all the way to the Pacific via partition of California. But they settled on extending previous Missouri Compromise line of 1820 to the Colorado River thus opening most of New Mexico and future Arizona to slavery. Also, by creating just one state out of California it limited number of new Free State US senators to 2. (Oregon became a state in 1856 for another 2 which was predictable by 1850).
My point, beyond chronology, is that while views of Americans then in California (very few had been there five years previous when it was part of Mexico) had some weight, they were NOT the major factor. Which was balancing the conflicting views and interests of voters and politicos east of the Mississippi, especially in Washington City.
One factor not mentioned above, is the existing and fast growing commercial, economic AND strategic connection between California and the Northeast US, not just by wagon train and stage coach, but even more by sailing ship.
Good god. Ozempic is effective but not THAT effective
Is he sick?
Ozempic plus a regular diet for the first time in decades, rather than snatched fast food and booze while in office? ETA or you are right and he could be unwell but surely we'd have heard if he had some debilitating disease.
Remember when his "diet" was his sell after almost dying of Covid and how he'd turned it around? I guess he lied again.
We all have out favourite columnists. Leon's choice is characteristic.
I’m hoping he writes a column about the inability of certain types to admit obvious likely things: eg lab leak - because these facts make them uncomfortable
The Tribalisation of Truth might be a good title
And, for the record, all sides do it. Extreme Brexiteers demanded their own warped reality where Brexit would be painless and purely brilliant. Despite this being obvious shite
Perhaps an article on the susceptibility of weak minds to conspiracy theories might be better.
We all have out favourite columnists. Leon's choice is characteristic.
I’m hoping he writes a column about the inability of certain types to admit obvious likely things: eg lab leak - because these facts make them uncomfortable
The Tribalisation of Truth might be a good title
And, for the record, all sides do it. Extreme Brexiteers demanded their own warped reality where Brexit would be painless and purely brilliant. Despite this being obvious shite
Perhaps an article on the susceptibility of weak minds to conspiracy theories might be better.
Or perhaps an article about playing a character and thinking everyone is so thick they don't know who it is.
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
A rather strange source for The Times to quote, but they’re 100% correct
“ A Labour tennis fan said: “ The biggest mistake the Tories made electorally was they panicked and got rid of Boris Johnson, who is a winner, and replaced him first with a lunatic [Liz Truss] and then with a loser [Sunak]. Sunak lost the leadership election, he got walloped in a succession of by-elections. He’s made a worst-ever start in a local election. He’s only waiting for his Wimbledon … the general election. That would give him the grand slam of losses.” “
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
A rather strange source for The Times to quote, but they’re 100% correct
“ A Labour tennis fan said: “ The biggest mistake the Tories made electorally was they panicked and got rid of Boris Johnson, who is a winner, and replaced him first with a lunatic [Liz Truss] and then with a loser [Sunak]. Sunak lost the leadership election, he got walloped in a succession of by-elections. He’s made a worst-ever start in a local election. He’s only waiting for his Wimbledon … the general election. That would give him the grand slam of losses.” “
Unless Rishi pulls off a win, which is still likely.
Seriously, why should anyone vote Conservatives based on the Government's record since 2010? All Labour has to do is keep reminding the public of the litany of Conservative failure, incompetence and disaster - there's enough for a 6-week campaign.
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
A rather strange source for The Times to quote, but they’re 100% correct
“ A Labour tennis fan said: “ The biggest mistake the Tories made electorally was they panicked and got rid of Boris Johnson, who is a winner, and replaced him first with a lunatic [Liz Truss] and then with a loser [Sunak]. Sunak lost the leadership election, he got walloped in a succession of by-elections. He’s made a worst-ever start in a local election. He’s only waiting for his Wimbledon … the general election. That would give him the grand slam of losses.” “
Unless Rishi pulls off a win, which is still likely.
'Likely'!? If he retains 200 MP's he'll have out-performed.
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
A rather strange source for The Times to quote, but they’re 100% correct
“ A Labour tennis fan said: “ The biggest mistake the Tories made electorally was they panicked and got rid of Boris Johnson, who is a winner, and replaced him first with a lunatic [Liz Truss] and then with a loser [Sunak]. Sunak lost the leadership election, he got walloped in a succession of by-elections. He’s made a worst-ever start in a local election. He’s only waiting for his Wimbledon … the general election. That would give him the grand slam of losses.” “
Unless Rishi pulls off a win, which is still likely.
Well it’s not likely is it? Lab majority is 75% chance in the betting, and they’ve got NOM onside too in all probability
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
A rather strange source for The Times to quote, but they’re 100% correct
“ A Labour tennis fan said: “ The biggest mistake the Tories made electorally was they panicked and got rid of Boris Johnson, who is a winner, and replaced him first with a lunatic [Liz Truss] and then with a loser [Sunak]. Sunak lost the leadership election, he got walloped in a succession of by-elections. He’s made a worst-ever start in a local election. He’s only waiting for his Wimbledon … the general election. That would give him the grand slam of losses.” “
Unless Rishi pulls off a win, which is still likely.
Well it’s not likely is it? Lab majority is 75% chance in the betting, and they’ve got NOM onside too in all probability
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
A rather strange source for The Times to quote, but they’re 100% correct
“ A Labour tennis fan said: “ The biggest mistake the Tories made electorally was they panicked and got rid of Boris Johnson, who is a winner, and replaced him first with a lunatic [Liz Truss] and then with a loser [Sunak]. Sunak lost the leadership election, he got walloped in a succession of by-elections. He’s made a worst-ever start in a local election. He’s only waiting for his Wimbledon … the general election. That would give him the grand slam of losses.” “
Unless Rishi pulls off a win, which is still likely.
Well it’s not likely is it? Lab majority is 75% chance in the betting, and they’ve got NOM onside too in all probability
I think it is more likely than some think.
What do you actually mean by the phrase? There's a northern spin on 'some' that equates to many I guess. I think you'll struggle to find the few needed for a more general interpretation, let alone that.
Most Tories believe the key to winning back Middle England is to cut personal taxation in the next budget on March 6. A cabinet minister said: “The tax cuts in March will be enormous. Either they work or we leave Labour with a major headache.” Labour strategists think Sunak will cut 2p from the basic rate of income tax. He and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, are also considering scrapping inheritance tax, slashing or abolishing stamp duty and raising income tax thresholds, as Cummings suggested.
That has to be the port and Stilton talking, doesn't it?
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
A rather strange source for The Times to quote, but they’re 100% correct
“ A Labour tennis fan said: “ The biggest mistake the Tories made electorally was they panicked and got rid of Boris Johnson, who is a winner, and replaced him first with a lunatic [Liz Truss] and then with a loser [Sunak]. Sunak lost the leadership election, he got walloped in a succession of by-elections. He’s made a worst-ever start in a local election. He’s only waiting for his Wimbledon … the general election. That would give him the grand slam of losses.” “
Unless Rishi pulls off a win, which is still likely.
Well it’s not likely is it? Lab majority is 75% chance in the betting, and they’ve got NOM onside too in all probability
I think it is more likely than some think.
Labour don't have to do much to deprive the cons of a majority. in fact, just switchers from Con to Reform could do that. add in an increase for labour and they'll easily get the Tories down below 310. 310 is the point where the other parties can start forming a rainbow coalition.
anything around Lab 40%, Con 30%, LD 10% reform 8% would easily give labour a sizeable majority.
Most Tories believe the key to winning back Middle England is to cut personal taxation in the next budget on March 6. A cabinet minister said: “The tax cuts in March will be enormous. Either they work or we leave Labour with a major headache.” Labour strategists think Sunak will cut 2p from the basic rate of income tax. He and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, are also considering scrapping inheritance tax, slashing or abolishing stamp duty and raising income tax thresholds, as Cummings suggested.
That has to be the port and Stilton talking, doesn't it?
that's the kind of budget which could bring down a government if enough MPs think it's Truss/Kwarteng mark 2
A certainty is that it is a referendum on the Tories fitness for power. Currently just a quarter of those likely to vote think they are so fit. It's reasonable to think the other 75% don't.
At the next election the Tories fitness for power will be a bigger issue than Labour's. Labour is not plainly deranged at the moment. Things can change of course, and will. The Tories (and others) will do well enough to stop Labour getting an overall mathematical majority (326 seats) but no better.
Most Tories believe the key to winning back Middle England is to cut personal taxation in the next budget on March 6. A cabinet minister said: “The tax cuts in March will be enormous. Either they work or we leave Labour with a major headache.” Labour strategists think Sunak will cut 2p from the basic rate of income tax. He and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, are also considering scrapping inheritance tax, slashing or abolishing stamp duty and raising income tax thresholds, as Cummings suggested.
That has to be the port and Stilton talking, doesn't it?
I cannot think of something Labour would like more than for the Tories to announce an inheritance cut tax.
The election will be 2nd May. Many many reasons why this is Plan A:
We know they rushed through measures from the autumn statement and are having a very early budget for more giveaways.
We know they have hired the team to manage the election campaign.
We know the only thing that will (potentially) keep the 5 Families of Lunatics in check is the discipline of an election.
Everyone expects the Tories to get reamed on 2nd May in the local elections. Which creates the momentum against Sunak for the 5 Families of Lunatics to go after him. Months of political chaos.
Finally we have the King, who has chosen to remove October as a practical consideration (perhaps having been advised that the UK *cannot* have an election adjacent to the US election/civil war) by means of being on the opposite side of the world.
If we only look at the polls its easy to say "go long". But realistically their only shot is to throw everything they have at a robust campaign - and that only gets harder the later the year goes on. With respect to the January tax rise not tax cut, and the supposed IHT abolition in March, that won't make any difference vs all the other reasons not to trust them.
Their wedge is Starmer. They can't go on Sunak's pledges or the boats or the economy cos that is all fucked. But voters in Penistone etc still don't trust Keith Donkey. So throw everything you have at him whilst burning the last cash we have on giveaways.
Its their best shot. Which is why it will be 2nd May.
Most Tories believe the key to winning back Middle England is to cut personal taxation in the next budget on March 6. A cabinet minister said: “The tax cuts in March will be enormous. Either they work or we leave Labour with a major headache.” Labour strategists think Sunak will cut 2p from the basic rate of income tax. He and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, are also considering scrapping inheritance tax, slashing or abolishing stamp duty and raising income tax thresholds, as Cummings suggested.
That has to be the port and Stilton talking, doesn't it?
It's the last throw of the dice by some desperate people who now realise the light at the end of the tunnel is the next train bearing down on them.
Ken Clarke famously eschewed siren calls for tax cuts in order to provide the incoming Labour Government with as strong an inheritance as possible.
This incarnation of the Conservative Party cares nothing for balanced budgets, sound financial management or anything like that. They simply want to salt the earth for the next Government forgetting it's not just about them and Labour - it's about all of us and the debt interest we'll have to pay for this tax cutting nonsense.
Most Tories believe the key to winning back Middle England is to cut personal taxation in the next budget on March 6. A cabinet minister said: “The tax cuts in March will be enormous. Either they work or we leave Labour with a major headache.” Labour strategists think Sunak will cut 2p from the basic rate of income tax. He and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, are also considering scrapping inheritance tax, slashing or abolishing stamp duty and raising income tax thresholds, as Cummings suggested.
That has to be the port and Stilton talking, doesn't it?
that's the kind of budget which could bring down a government if enough MPs think it's Truss/Kwarteng mark 2
They won't get the chance. Scenarios: 1) MPs think the cuts are crazy. If they derail the finance bill that's a GE triggered where they are divided and had no giveaway. 2) The markets think the cuts are crazy. But assume that Labour will be the government in 6 weeks so don't react as badly as they did for the Lizaster
Either way, the finance bill goes through as the last thing this parliament does.
Think about what fun they have if they cut the basic rate to 18% - "LABOUR WOULD OUT UP YOUR TAXES" etc
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
A rather strange source for The Times to quote, but they’re 100% correct
“ A Labour tennis fan said: “ The biggest mistake the Tories made electorally was they panicked and got rid of Boris Johnson, who is a winner, and replaced him first with a lunatic [Liz Truss] and then with a loser [Sunak]. Sunak lost the leadership election, he got walloped in a succession of by-elections. He’s made a worst-ever start in a local election. He’s only waiting for his Wimbledon … the general election. That would give him the grand slam of losses.” “
Unless Rishi pulls off a win, which is still likely.
Well it’s not likely is it? Lab majority is 75% chance in the betting, and they’ve got NOM onside too in all probability
I think it is more likely than some think.
Labour don't have to do much to deprive the cons of a majority. in fact, just switchers from Con to Reform could do that. add in an increase for labour and they'll easily get the Tories down below 310. 310 is the point where the other parties can start forming a rainbow coalition.
anything around Lab 40%, Con 30%, LD 10% reform 8% would easily give labour a sizeable majority.
Within a couple, to form a government the Tories need 322 votes. Leaving 320 other votes (allowing 8 for SF and speaker). It is just possible, though unlikely that up to about 8 votes would come from the Prots. (These two groups richly deserve each other, but the poor old public don't). The Tories could possibly therefore scrape by with 314 seats + 8 Prots. If they lose 52 seats they are out; probably fewer - losing 44 seats leaves them with 321.
The election will be 2nd May. Many many reasons why this is Plan A:
We know they rushed through measures from the autumn statement and are having a very early budget for more giveaways.
We know they have hired the team to manage the election campaign.
We know the only thing that will (potentially) keep the 5 Families of Lunatics in check is the discipline of an election.
Everyone expects the Tories to get reamed on 2nd May in the local elections. Which creates the momentum against Sunak for the 5 Families of Lunatics to go after him. Months of political chaos.
Finally we have the King, who has chosen to remove October as a practical consideration (perhaps having been advised that the UK *cannot* have an election adjacent to the US election/civil war) by means of being on the opposite side of the world.
If we only look at the polls its easy to say "go long". But realistically their only shot is to throw everything they have at a robust campaign - and that only gets harder the later the year goes on. With respect to the January tax rise not tax cut, and the supposed IHT abolition in March, that won't make any difference vs all the other reasons not to trust them.
Their wedge is Starmer. They can't go on Sunak's pledges or the boats or the economy cos that is all fucked. But voters in Penistone etc still don't trust Keith Donkey. So throw everything you have at him whilst burning the last cash we have on giveaways.
Its their best shot. Which is why it will be 2nd May.
It's the best plan, leading to the best outcome.
But it means pressing the button in mid March.
Will Rishi have the nerve to do that, knowing it's probably then five weeks until he's out of office?
The election will be 2nd May. Many many reasons why this is Plan A:
We know they rushed through measures from the autumn statement and are having a very early budget for more giveaways.
We know they have hired the team to manage the election campaign.
We know the only thing that will (potentially) keep the 5 Families of Lunatics in check is the discipline of an election.
Everyone expects the Tories to get reamed on 2nd May in the local elections. Which creates the momentum against Sunak for the 5 Families of Lunatics to go after him. Months of political chaos.
Finally we have the King, who has chosen to remove October as a practical consideration (perhaps having been advised that the UK *cannot* have an election adjacent to the US election/civil war) by means of being on the opposite side of the world.
If we only look at the polls its easy to say "go long". But realistically their only shot is to throw everything they have at a robust campaign - and that only gets harder the later the year goes on. With respect to the January tax rise not tax cut, and the supposed IHT abolition in March, that won't make any difference vs all the other reasons not to trust them.
Their wedge is Starmer. They can't go on Sunak's pledges or the boats or the economy cos that is all fucked. But voters in Penistone etc still don't trust Keith Donkey. So throw everything you have at him whilst burning the last cash we have on giveaways.
Its their best shot. Which is why it will be 2nd May.
It's the best plan, leading to the best outcome.
But it means pressing the button in mid March.
Will Rishi have the nerve to do that, knowing it's probably then five weeks until he's out of office?
Yes. Especially if he thinks he has just shish-kebabbed Keith Donkey with a tax cut he would reverse.
Most Tories believe the key to winning back Middle England is to cut personal taxation in the next budget on March 6. A cabinet minister said: “The tax cuts in March will be enormous. Either they work or we leave Labour with a major headache.” Labour strategists think Sunak will cut 2p from the basic rate of income tax. He and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, are also considering scrapping inheritance tax, slashing or abolishing stamp duty and raising income tax thresholds, as Cummings suggested.
That has to be the port and Stilton talking, doesn't it?
that's the kind of budget which could bring down a government if enough MPs think it's Truss/Kwarteng mark 2
They won't get the chance. Scenarios: 1) MPs think the cuts are crazy. If they derail the finance bill that's a GE triggered where they are divided and had no giveaway. 2) The markets think the cuts are crazy. But assume that Labour will be the government in 6 weeks so don't react as badly as they did for the Lizaster
Either way, the finance bill goes through as the last thing this parliament does.
Think about what fun they have if they cut the basic rate to 18% - "LABOUR WOULD OUT UP YOUR TAXES" etc
Both opposing and matching a tax cut is everyday politics to any party seeking power.
Most Tories believe the key to winning back Middle England is to cut personal taxation in the next budget on March 6. A cabinet minister said: “The tax cuts in March will be enormous. Either they work or we leave Labour with a major headache.” Labour strategists think Sunak will cut 2p from the basic rate of income tax. He and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, are also considering scrapping inheritance tax, slashing or abolishing stamp duty and raising income tax thresholds, as Cummings suggested.
That has to be the port and Stilton talking, doesn't it?
that's the kind of budget which could bring down a government if enough MPs think it's Truss/Kwarteng mark 2
They won't get the chance. Scenarios: 1) MPs think the cuts are crazy. If they derail the finance bill that's a GE triggered where they are divided and had no giveaway. 2) The markets think the cuts are crazy. But assume that Labour will be the government in 6 weeks so don't react as badly as they did for the Lizaster
Either way, the finance bill goes through as the last thing this parliament does.
Think about what fun they have if they cut the basic rate to 18% - "LABOUR WOULD OUT UP YOUR TAXES" etc
It won't be an income tax cut, it will be another reduction in NI.
September is worth a punt. Summer hols; sunshine; Euros; Olympics; feelgood; back to school; polling station floor repolished. Olympics end 11 August. Possible.
September is worth a punt. Summer hols; sunshine; Euros; Olympics; feelgood; back to school; polling station floor repolished. Olympics end 11 August. Possible.
September is difficult to arrange because of the times required. also neither party wants an election campaign during the summer holidays. they want the break and no-one will be paying attention to it
September is worth a punt. Summer hols; sunshine; Euros; Olympics; feelgood; back to school; polling station floor repolished. Olympics end 11 August. Possible.
I think May. And of all the wedge issues the one they’re going to go on is massive, irresponsible tax cuts for middle income earners. It’s their only hope.
Massive tax cuts will be popular. Of course. People like something for nothing. And they won’t be unfunded - oh no, they learnt the lesson from Truss. They’ll be funded by vast, utterly fictional and utterly undeliverable, spending cuts after the election.
Once you become a party that doesn’t give a flying fuck for the actual country you purport to govern, and instead aim only to maximise losing votes for your own party, these sorts of things become possible.
I sincerely hope Labour and journalists will press them endlessly on what exactly they will cut to make the £x billion saving they will claim in the spring budget.
Most Tories believe the key to winning back Middle England is to cut personal taxation in the next budget on March 6. A cabinet minister said: “The tax cuts in March will be enormous. Either they work or we leave Labour with a major headache.” Labour strategists think Sunak will cut 2p from the basic rate of income tax. He and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, are also considering scrapping inheritance tax, slashing or abolishing stamp duty and raising income tax thresholds, as Cummings suggested.
That has to be the port and Stilton talking, doesn't it?
I cannot think of something Labour would like more than for the Tories to announce an inheritance cut tax.
And abolishing stamp duty?
Abolishing stamp duty would actually be sensible. Ridiculous tax and has been for years. Abolishing IHT rather less so although simplifying it wouldn't do any harm.
Comments
Former?!?! So NV GOP has been taken over by freaking Libtards!?!?
I’ve got long Summer and Autumn period set against the Tories local election disaster, and looking like electoral failures, and has beens running scared from calling an election. That period allowing the opposition parties to convince voters any tax cuts have actually been funded by borrowing, and the already high tax burden, not from growth - tax cuts whilst social services, NHS, education, the environment, infrastructure is actually falling apart - and the longer with tax cuts in their pockets the more voters won’t feel better off. That summer and autumn period more government promises can not go anywhere positive, could fall apart, such as immigration, NHS, borrowing, growth. And stopping the boats. And more light can be shone upon government incompetence in this parliament, not least the abuse of covid crisis to create a secret and corrupt fast lane to government money, that’s still largely unexplored.
All these things will or likely come to pass to hurt the Conservatives next Summer and Autumn, it’s based on the understanding the Tory electoral battle for votes and best possible election result is not a battle between Tory and Labour but between Tory and Reform - the longer the gap is between now and the next election, the greater likelihood is Tory’s shipping more votes to Reform, not winning them back.
What have you got in the plus column for waiting?
Will this government act in the national interest? Nope. Not a chance.
https://x.com/gbnews/status/1741010038192218378
Is he sick?
My what a jolly fellow.
Baldrick:
Looked like a fat git to me.
Ebenezer Blackadder:
Yes Baldrick, but if one peels away the layers of a 'fat git' you'll probably find a...
Baldrick:
Thin git!
And even more pro-Southerners in Border states, which furnished plenty of soldiers and other resources for Confederacy; for example, almost certainly more West Virginians enlisted with CSA than with USA.
As for MoonRabbit's basic point, that "A House Divided" could have split with "success" however defined, well THAT's been a major topic of American history and historiography ever since before Fort Sumter. Perhaps a wee bit more involved (far less literal) than she suggests!
Posted this a couple days ago, but link below re: interesting alternative history written in early 1960s in time for the US Civil War Centennial. It's dated but still worth considering:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/If_the_South_Had_Won_the_Civil_War
Greatest weakness, shared by virtually all US Civil War histories of that period = minimizing/marginalizing of the African American experience, for Blacks AND for entire nation.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/how-reform-and-peter-bone-hope-to-cause-upset-in-the-wellingborough-by-election/ar-AA1mbx0Y
Peter Bone hopes to add to the gaiety of the nation (and betting opportunities) by standing at the by-election, either as an Independent or for Reform.
https://www.historytoday.com/archive/california-becomes-state-union
Am just reporting what I saw. Typed one thing, and another got posted. Tried to edit, no dice.
Even weirder, when I used edit feature, it showed me that it HAD been edited - but it wasn't.
Put THAT in yer pipe . . . or bong.
Surely they won't move to the right, a centrist could take advantage of the inevitable financial problems that Labour will have. But will there be any centrists left?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/will-we-worship-the-ai/
Happy noo yah
Revealed: Rishi Sunak’s secret talks to bring back Dominic Cummings
The PM was in discussions with Boris Johnson’s enforcer — then lost his nerve. Details of their conversations tell us plenty about how the Tory election script might unfold
Rishi Sunak’s political hero, the former chancellor Nigel Lawson, used to be fond of saying: “To govern is to choose.” It is a lesson Sunak has taken to heart with mixed success.
As 2024 dawns, it will soon be the electorate’s turn to choose, and their decision will be shaped by work going on behind the scenes for both the Tories and Labour.
Had the prime minister made a different choice at a meeting in July, the Tory campaign might have looked very different. That month, in utmost secrecy, Dominic Cummings, the former campaign director of Vote Leave and architect of Boris Johnson’s election victory in 2019, travelled to North Yorkshire to see Sunak. It was an audience hidden even from several members of the PM’s inner circle.
Over dinner, Sunak contemplated bringing the most controversial political aide of his generation in Downing Street back into the Conservative Party machine and sought his advice on how to win a general election. Cummings also went to see the PM and Liam Booth-Smith, his chief of staff, in London in December 2022, shortly after they moved into Downing Street.
No 10 has not denied Cummings’s account but stressed that no formal offer was made to him. “It was a broad discussion about politics and campaigning, no job was offered,” a Downing Street source said.
That month Cummings told Sunak to ditch his cautious approach to the economy and hold an emergency budget, reversing Johnson’s tax rises (which breached a 2019 manifesto pledge), and to almost double the threshold at which people pay the 40p rate of income tax from £50,271 to £100,000.
Both times Cummings told Sunak to settle the NHS strikes and make rebuilding the health service one of his core priorities, launching a national effort in the spirit of the Vaccine Taskforce. He also advocated leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Cummings’s price for joining the team was that Sunak put his authority behind radical Whitehall reforms. Sunak said: “The MPs and the media will go crazy. Your involvement has to be secret.”
Revealing details of this conversation for the first time, Cummings said: “He wanted a secret deal in which I delivered the election and he promised to take government seriously after the election. But I’d rather the Tories lose than continue in office without prioritising what’s important and the voters. The post-2016 Tories are summed up by the fact that Sunak, like Johnson, would rather lose than take government seriously. Both thought their MPs agreed with them, and both were right.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-dominic-cummings-tory-party-general-election-h8fhvp0nh
I am quite content with the PM exercising prerogative power to determine the election date. If the people think the PM is trying to game the system for advantage and they dislike that, then they are free to express their dissatisfaction through their vote.
lol
Leon's choice is characteristic.
The Tribalisation of Truth might be a good title
And, for the record, all sides do it. Extreme Brexiteers demanded their own warped reality where Brexit would be painless and purely brilliant. Despite this being obvious shite
What do you think will happen?
Later
I haven't seen a detailed exposition of concurrent and consecutive prison sentencing, and reductions / allowances across several defendants and a large number of counts before. This part is in the last few minutes of the vid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_GD1qLFlqE
However, CA was already part of the Union a per Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo between US and Mexico in 1848, a decade before election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860.
As noted in your link, CA became a state in 1850 by act of Congress, as part of the Compromise of 1850. It entered the Union as a Free State, undivided, something desired by the North and also, it appears, by the majority of eligible voters (White male US citizens 21-plus) then surging into California thanks to the Gold Rush.
Many Southerners had wanted extension of slavery all the way to the Pacific via partition of California. But they settled on extending previous Missouri Compromise line of 1820 to the Colorado River thus opening most of New Mexico and future Arizona to slavery. Also, by creating just one state out of California it limited number of new Free State US senators to 2. (Oregon became a state in 1856 for another 2 which was predictable by 1850).
My point, beyond chronology, is that while views of Americans then in California (very few had been there five years previous when it was part of Mexico) had some weight, they were NOT the major factor. Which was balancing the conflicting views and interests of voters and politicos east of the Mississippi, especially in Washington City.
One factor not mentioned above, is the existing and fast growing commercial, economic AND strategic connection between California and the Northeast US, not just by wagon train and stage coach, but even more by sailing ship.
If he'd died, well, I won't say
He's doing no one any harm - and no one has to click on the link.
It's not even like being rickrolled; you've only yourself to blame if you do.
But in future I will just avoid Spectator links unless the article is pasted here, job done.
..
[Speaking of, whatever happened to CHB?
“ A Labour tennis fan said: “ The biggest mistake the Tories made electorally was they panicked and got rid of Boris Johnson, who is a winner, and replaced him first with a lunatic [Liz Truss] and then with a loser [Sunak]. Sunak lost the leadership election, he got walloped in a succession of by-elections. He’s made a worst-ever start in a local election. He’s only waiting for his Wimbledon … the general election. That would give him the grand slam of losses.” “
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-12910945/BORIS-JOHNSON-claim-moral-superiority-autocracies-judges-America-seek-power-people-Let-2024-year-champion-true-democracy.html
Is it me or goes he seem think Baroness Hale is the same as Mad Vlad?
Nurse! 😂
Seriously, why should anyone vote Conservatives based on the Government's record since 2010? All Labour has to do is keep reminding the public of the litany of Conservative failure, incompetence and disaster - there's enough for a 6-week campaign.
He and Sunak would make Jack Lemmon and Walter Mattheu look compatible.
Most Tories believe the key to winning back Middle England is to cut personal taxation in the next budget on March 6. A cabinet minister said: “The tax cuts in March will be enormous. Either they work or we leave Labour with a major headache.” Labour strategists think Sunak will cut 2p from the basic rate of income tax. He and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, are also considering scrapping inheritance tax, slashing or abolishing stamp duty and raising income tax thresholds, as Cummings suggested.
That has to be the port and Stilton talking, doesn't it?
anything around Lab 40%, Con 30%, LD 10% reform 8% would easily give labour a sizeable majority.
What UKer can ever forget his contribution to British cuisine (if not public health) - the Rishi Meal Deal.
At the next election the Tories fitness for power will be a bigger issue than Labour's. Labour is not plainly deranged at the moment. Things can change of course, and will. The Tories (and others) will do well enough to stop Labour getting an overall mathematical majority (326 seats) but no better.
And abolishing stamp duty?
We know they rushed through measures from the autumn statement and are having a very early budget for more giveaways.
We know they have hired the team to manage the election campaign.
We know the only thing that will (potentially) keep the 5 Families of Lunatics in check is the discipline of an election.
Everyone expects the Tories to get reamed on 2nd May in the local elections. Which creates the momentum against Sunak for the 5 Families of Lunatics to go after him. Months of political chaos.
Finally we have the King, who has chosen to remove October as a practical consideration (perhaps having been advised that the UK *cannot* have an election adjacent to the US election/civil war) by means of being on the opposite side of the world.
If we only look at the polls its easy to say "go long". But realistically their only shot is to throw everything they have at a robust campaign - and that only gets harder the later the year goes on. With respect to the January tax rise not tax cut, and the supposed IHT abolition in March, that won't make any difference vs all the other reasons not to trust them.
Their wedge is Starmer. They can't go on Sunak's pledges or the boats or the economy cos that is all fucked. But voters in Penistone etc still don't trust Keith Donkey. So throw everything you have at him whilst burning the last cash we have on giveaways.
Its their best shot. Which is why it will be 2nd May.
And so get your bets on for November
Ken Clarke famously eschewed siren calls for tax cuts in order to provide the incoming Labour Government with as strong an inheritance as possible.
This incarnation of the Conservative Party cares nothing for balanced budgets, sound financial management or anything like that. They simply want to salt the earth for the next Government forgetting it's not just about them and Labour - it's about all of us and the debt interest we'll have to pay for this tax cutting nonsense.
1) MPs think the cuts are crazy. If they derail the finance bill that's a GE triggered where they are divided and had no giveaway.
2) The markets think the cuts are crazy. But assume that Labour will be the government in 6 weeks so don't react as badly as they did for the Lizaster
Either way, the finance bill goes through as the last thing this parliament does.
Think about what fun they have if they cut the basic rate to 18% - "LABOUR WOULD OUT UP YOUR TAXES" etc
NOM is a very likely result.
But it means pressing the button in mid March.
Will Rishi have the nerve to do that, knowing it's probably then five weeks until he's out of office?
Massive tax cuts will be popular. Of course. People like something for nothing. And they won’t be unfunded - oh no, they learnt the lesson from Truss. They’ll be funded by vast, utterly fictional and utterly undeliverable, spending cuts after the election.
Once you become a party that doesn’t give a flying fuck for the actual country you purport to govern, and instead aim only to maximise losing votes for your own party, these sorts of things become possible.
I sincerely hope Labour and journalists will press them endlessly on what exactly they will cut to make the £x billion saving they will claim in the spring budget.