Turkey, South Africa and Kenya also proposed - as was legislation incompatible with the ECHR.
Revealing of Blair's thought on the matter: ..Guidance from Home Office ministers was that such measures would breach the UN convention on refugees, with Blair scribbling on one document: “Just return them. This is precisely the point. We must not allow the ECHR to stop us dealing with it.”..
Why Mull? Why not go the whole hog and stick them on St Kilda? Or Rockall?
There seems to be something really weird in the British (or is it the Home Office?) psyche here.
Just return them is fine. Assuming you know where they have come from, and can assure their safety. Which we often can’t.
Someone in the Cabinet Office probably thought it would be amusing to Mull it over.
M. Howard commented that, in response to any crisis, the civil servants at the Home Office would produce a pile of policy proposals they had in various cupboards.
And that it was the duty of a Home Sec. to say no to each and every one.
The description of the meeting after the Brighton Bombing - Thatcher said no to a range of measures that ranged from insane to Donald Trump++
No matter what the problem or event, the HO answer is ID cards backed with a massive database of everyone.
The mandarins have been proposing the same thing now for several decades, in response to every terrorist attack, mass-casualty event, or natural disaster. Thankfully, the dozens of ministers who have been in the HO in the last half century, have kept telling them to go swing.
Not that I am particularly keen, but national ID cards isn't a completely daft solution to illegal immigration etc.
The daftness is in the insane proposals to link it to a mega database of everything about everyone.
And give access to everyone (Important People were to have their data on a separate, slavery secure system).
And which gets attached to every U.K. ID card proposal.
And which was just starting implantation when the Coalition cancelled the last attempt at ID cards.
Which would break a host of European data protection requirements, incidentally.
ID cards have had a number of issues over the years. 1) the database 2) they were not mandatory to have 3) they were not mandatory to carry 4) if the police did have the powers to charge people for not presenting one they'd not bother because of the time and the paperwork 5) generally people that will be most disadvantaged by the policy can't afford to get one
Though other countries do make them mandatory to carry. Why can't we?
The reason is that we prize the freedom not to, but that freedom comes at the price of difficulty enforcing borders.
ID cards are fine. Once you have them, make them mandatory for employment - every employer I’ve had, for decades, has wanted a photocopy of my passport. Make them free to obtain.
Other countries in Europe don’t try and implant Minority Report. They simply issue a card with a unique ID number. This actually works, doesn’t involve a Giant Government IT Project (aka multi decade failure) and doesn’t break the law, data protection requirements or reality.
The price for my support is the indefinite detention without trial, plus regular torture, of the officials who want the stupid database stuff.
To misquote Lincoln - when someone proposes extra-legal stuff, I have a strong desire to see it practised upon him.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
People always think crime is rising because people become more sensitised to crime as they age. Behaviour that is considered to be just having a laugh when people are young is more likely to be thought of as antisocial by those same people as they get older. I'm sure those of us of more mature years can all think of stuff we did for fun when we were young that we'd frown about when youngsters do it now.
When I was at primary school a kid brought a detonator to school that he'd 'found' on the railway tracks. We had great fun chucking bricks at it in the back lane after school before it went off... It was loud! Then plenty of underage drinking in various public places as a teenager, no doubt we looked like a scary bunch of ne'erdowells although we were pretty harmless really. I actually think most kids these days are a bit soft, although some of them round here do stab each other occasionally. There's probably less low level teenage trouble making and agro in my patch of South London in 2023 though than in my small town in the 1990s.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined ... There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
FTFY.
Negativity sells unfortunately, whether it be the Guardian or Fox News doing it.
The media loves to ramp everything up to eleven, whether it be migrants or climate change, woke or reactionary etc that is the target of its attacks.
Yes they’re all as bad as each other, as is very obvious if you watch a broad spectrum of US media. Fox and MSNBC are the mainstream extremes but most of them are their own type of crazy, especially the new online media personalities, many of whom will say anything for clicks, the more extreme the better.
On my 2024 predictions list, is a serious attempt by US authorities to take out Twitter before the election.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
Which is essentially Leon's right-wing feed here: there's always some calamity or other that's about to befall us all, and they're all offered with minimal or missing evidence or thought.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
People always think crime is rising because people become more sensitised to crime as they age. Behaviour that is considered to be just having a laugh when people are young is more likely to be thought of as antisocial by those same people as they get older. I'm sure those of us of more mature years can all think of stuff we did for fun when we were young that we'd frown about when youngsters do it now.
Partly - but it's also media exposure. Parents are far more scared about child abuse than they were when many of us were young, yet all the evidence (now) suggests that we were at significantly more risk back then, than are children today. And not just because they aren't allowed so much freedom.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
Which is essentially Leon's right-wing feed here: there's always some calamity or other that's about to befall us all, and they're all offered with minimal or missing evidence or thought.
The Trans Woke Gay Illegal Alien AIs are hiding in the shadows, just behind you.
Turkey, South Africa and Kenya also proposed - as was legislation incompatible with the ECHR.
Revealing of Blair's thought on the matter: ..Guidance from Home Office ministers was that such measures would breach the UN convention on refugees, with Blair scribbling on one document: “Just return them. This is precisely the point. We must not allow the ECHR to stop us dealing with it.”..
Why Mull? Why not go the whole hog and stick them on St Kilda? Or Rockall?
There seems to be something really weird in the British (or is it the Home Office?) psyche here.
Just return them is fine. Assuming you know where they have come from, and can assure their safety. Which we often can’t.
Someone in the Cabinet Office probably thought it would be amusing to Mull it over.
M. Howard commented that, in response to any crisis, the civil servants at the Home Office would produce a pile of policy proposals they had in various cupboards.
And that it was the duty of a Home Sec. to say no to each and every one.
The description of the meeting after the Brighton Bombing - Thatcher said no to a range of measures that ranged from insane to Donald Trump++
No matter what the problem or event, the HO answer is ID cards backed with a massive database of everyone.
The mandarins have been proposing the same thing now for several decades, in response to every terrorist attack, mass-casualty event, or natural disaster. Thankfully, the dozens of ministers who have been in the HO in the last half century, have kept telling them to go swing.
Not that I am particularly keen, but national ID cards isn't a completely daft solution to illegal immigration etc.
The daftness is in the insane proposals to link it to a mega database of everything about everyone.
And give access to everyone (Important People were to have their data on a separate, slavery secure system).
And which gets attached to every U.K. ID card proposal.
And which was just starting implantation when the Coalition cancelled the last attempt at ID cards.
Which would break a host of European data protection requirements, incidentally.
ID cards have had a number of issues over the years. 1) the database 2) they were not mandatory to have 3) they were not mandatory to carry 4) if the police did have the powers to charge people for not presenting one they'd not bother because of the time and the paperwork 5) generally people that will be most disadvantaged by the policy can't afford to get one
Though other countries do make them mandatory to carry. Why can't we?
The reason is that we prize the freedom not to, but that freedom comes at the price of difficulty enforcing borders.
ID cards are fine. Once you have them, make them mandatory for employment - every employer I’ve had, for decades, has wanted a photocopy of my passport. Make them free to obtain.
Other countries in Europe don’t try and implant Minority Report. They simply issue a card with a unique ID number. This actually works, doesn’t involve a Giant Government IT Project (aka multi decade failure) and doesn’t break the law, data protection requirements or reality.
The price for my support is the indefinite detention without trial, plus regular torture, of the officials who want the stupid database stuff.
To misquote Lincoln - when someone proposes extra-legal stuff, I have a strong desire to see it practised upon him.
The massive tell-tale in the last proposal, was the separate database - with much tighter access control - for MPs, Peers, their families, and other ‘VIPs’.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
Which is essentially Leon's right-wing feed here: there's always some calamity or other that's about to befall us all, and they're all offered with minimal or missing evidence or thought.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
People always think crime is rising because people become more sensitised to crime as they age. Behaviour that is considered to be just having a laugh when people are young is more likely to be thought of as antisocial by those same people as they get older. I'm sure those of us of more mature years can all think of stuff we did for fun when we were young that we'd frown about when youngsters do it now.
When I was at primary school a kid brought a detonator to school that he'd 'found' on the railway tracks. We had great fun chucking bricks at it in the back lane after school before it went off... It was loud! Then plenty of underage drinking in various public places as a teenager, no doubt we looked like a scary bunch of ne'erdowells although we were pretty harmless really. I actually think most kids these days are a bit soft, although some of them round here do stab each other occasionally. There's probably less low level teenage trouble making and agro in my patch of South London in 2023 though than in my small town in the 1990s.
Yes, I sympathise with kids of today, for whom underage drinking appears to have been made prohibitively difficult.
And I agree there seems a lot less casual violence nowadays. This may just be a product of ageing. But also, watch a few sitcoms from the 70s and 80s. Fights were a regular plot device, in a way which would seem implausible now.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
That sounds like the narrative leftists have been pushing in this country since May 2010 with the addition of a 'collapsed NHS'.
With the only 'hope and vision' being to spend more money. On themselves.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
People always think crime is rising because people become more sensitised to crime as they age. Behaviour that is considered to be just having a laugh when people are young is more likely to be thought of as antisocial by those same people as they get older. I'm sure those of us of more mature years can all think of stuff we did for fun when we were young that we'd frown about when youngsters do it now.
When I was at primary school a kid brought a detonator to school that he'd 'found' on the railway tracks. We had great fun chucking bricks at it in the back lane after school before it went off... It was loud! Then plenty of underage drinking in various public places as a teenager, no doubt we looked like a scary bunch of ne'erdowells although we were pretty harmless really. I actually think most kids these days are a bit soft, although some of them round here do stab each other occasionally. There's probably less low level teenage trouble making and agro in my patch of South London in 2023 though than in my small town in the 1990s.
Yes, I sympathise with kids of today, for whom underage drinking appears to have been made prohibitively difficult.
And I agree there seems a lot less casual violence nowadays. This may just be a product of ageing. But also, watch a few sitcoms from the 70s and 80s. Fights were a regular plot device, in a way which would seem implausible now.
There is the leaded petrol theory, of course.
There is also the legalised abortion theory too.
If that's right, in 20 years time [some states in] the USA will see a genuine rise in crime.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
Which is essentially Leon's right-wing feed here: there's always some calamity or other that's about to befall us all, and they're all offered with minimal or missing evidence or thought.
I mean, you’re just obsessed with me
Are you gonna start loitering by my wheelie bins?
I thought you were leaving (once again) after last night's embarrassing performance.
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Lincoln waiting to sign & publish the (First) Emancipation Proclamation until AFTER the Army of the Potomoc turned back Lee's invasion of Maryland at Battle of Antietam (Sharpsburg) in Sept 1862.
He was a masterful politician, particularly with respect to timing.
Hard to think of anyone better in that department.
One of my few political heroes. A politician of great principle who also was a calculating bastard when he needed to be.
Yes, Lincoln is my favourite politician. A truly great man, a far more attractive figure to me than the founding fathers, especially the hypocritical Virginians. When I'm in DC I always try to find some quiet time at his memorial. To think of the kind of absolute scum who now run under his party's banner, it's quite incredible.
The fact that the party of Lincoln now contains many who think the wrong side won the Civil War is an utter tragedy.
A bit like those who consider themselves "patriots" who use the symbolism of our (and their) enemy in WWII.
Its insanity and idiocy.
Ironically slavery caused the economic retardation of the southern states and the extreme inequalities of wealth which was so damaging to most southern whites.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
Which is essentially Leon's right-wing feed here: there's always some calamity or other that's about to befall us all, and they're all offered with minimal or missing evidence or thought.
I mean, you’re just obsessed with me
Are you gonna start loitering by my wheelie bins?
I thought you were leaving (once again) after last night's embarrassing performance.
I said I’m generously giving you a chance to shape up
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Perhaps Gen Z and Millennials are just better people than previous generations.
Lincoln waiting to sign & publish the (First) Emancipation Proclamation until AFTER the Army of the Potomoc turned back Lee's invasion of Maryland at Battle of Antietam (Sharpsburg) in Sept 1862.
He was a masterful politician, particularly with respect to timing.
Hard to think of anyone better in that department.
One of my few political heroes. A politician of great principle who also was a calculating bastard when he needed to be.
Yes, Lincoln is my favourite politician. A truly great man, a far more attractive figure to me than the founding fathers, especially the hypocritical Virginians. When I'm in DC I always try to find some quiet time at his memorial. To think of the kind of absolute scum who now run under his party's banner, it's quite incredible.
The fact that the party of Lincoln now contains many who think the wrong side won the Civil War is an utter tragedy.
A bit like those who consider themselves "patriots" who use the symbolism of our (and their) enemy in WWII.
Its insanity and idiocy.
Ironically slavery caused the economic retardation of the southern states and the extreme inequalities of wealth which was so damaging to most southern whites.
And caused them to lose the Civil War. Bit hard to fight a 19th cent. war with one major ironworks in the whole country.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
People always think crime is rising because people become more sensitised to crime as they age. Behaviour that is considered to be just having a laugh when people are young is more likely to be thought of as antisocial by those same people as they get older. I'm sure those of us of more mature years can all think of stuff we did for fun when we were young that we'd frown about when youngsters do it now.
When I was at primary school a kid brought a detonator to school that he'd 'found' on the railway tracks. We had great fun chucking bricks at it in the back lane after school before it went off... It was loud! Then plenty of underage drinking in various public places as a teenager, no doubt we looked like a scary bunch of ne'erdowells although we were pretty harmless really. I actually think most kids these days are a bit soft, although some of them round here do stab each other occasionally. There's probably less low level teenage trouble making and agro in my patch of South London in 2023 though than in my small town in the 1990s.
Yes, I sympathise with kids of today, for whom underage drinking appears to have been made prohibitively difficult.
And I agree there seems a lot less casual violence nowadays. This may just be a product of ageing. But also, watch a few sitcoms from the 70s and 80s. Fights were a regular plot device, in a way which would seem implausible now.
There is the leaded petrol theory, of course.
Yup, the leaded petrol story looks quite convincing. I wonder too whether the long shadow of two world wars had an impact on how people interacted with each other, with people desensitised to violence and living with various traumas. The world has become feminised too, which is a good thing IMHO, making violence - which is more of a male trait - less acceptable.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
And some of that is money, bad news sells. "It's a dangerous world, and only we can point out the dangers to you."
And some of it is holding on to power. "These are dangerous times, it's no time for a novice. Best let the grownups run things just a little bit longer. Heaven knows we would love to leave the stage, but sadly the time isn't ripe..."
And some of it is boomer jealousy of their parents, who got to be proper heroes fighting actual Nazis. The WW2 imagery was unavoidable during you-know-what. Now we have middlebrow hacks claiming that woke is like fascism.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
Which is essentially Leon's right-wing feed here: there's always some calamity or other that's about to befall us all, and they're all offered with minimal or missing evidence or thought.
I mean, you’re just obsessed with me
Are you gonna start loitering by my wheelie bins?
He'll first need to fight off your biggest fan. The person who adores your every thought and sinew. You.
I love the talk about negative media on here this morning. Perhaps people should look at their own posts about the UK and how it is a basket case and how everything has collapsed.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
Which is essentially Leon's right-wing feed here: there's always some calamity or other that's about to befall us all, and they're all offered with minimal or missing evidence or thought.
I mean, you’re just obsessed with me
Are you gonna start loitering by my wheelie bins?
He'll first need to fight off your biggest fan. The person who adores your every thought and sinew. You.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
Which is essentially Leon's right-wing feed here: there's always some calamity or other that's about to befall us all, and they're all offered with minimal or missing evidence or thought.
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Even controlling for demographics there's much less crime than should be expected, like-for-like. Young people today are far, far less like to both drink and commit crime than young people in the past.
There's very sound reasons why.
1: Legalised abortion - would-have-been criminals are disproportionately far more likely to be aborted so never born in the first place.
2: Technology - young people today are more likely to be at home looking at their phone or playing games than bored and getting up to no good on the streets.
Lincoln waiting to sign & publish the (First) Emancipation Proclamation until AFTER the Army of the Potomoc turned back Lee's invasion of Maryland at Battle of Antietam (Sharpsburg) in Sept 1862.
He was a masterful politician, particularly with respect to timing.
Hard to think of anyone better in that department.
One of my few political heroes. A politician of great principle who also was a calculating bastard when he needed to be.
Yes, Lincoln is my favourite politician. A truly great man, a far more attractive figure to me than the founding fathers, especially the hypocritical Virginians. When I'm in DC I always try to find some quiet time at his memorial. To think of the kind of absolute scum who now run under his party's banner, it's quite incredible.
The fact that the party of Lincoln now contains many who think the wrong side won the Civil War is an utter tragedy.
A bit like those who consider themselves "patriots" who use the symbolism of our (and their) enemy in WWII.
Its insanity and idiocy.
Ironically slavery caused the economic retardation of the southern states and the extreme inequalities of wealth which was so damaging to most southern whites.
Indeed, depressingly few southern whites seemed to recognise that slavery and racism was part of the same class warfare that kept them oppressed. Still seems to work on a lot of people. Sad!
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
People always think crime is rising because people become more sensitised to crime as they age. Behaviour that is considered to be just having a laugh when people are young is more likely to be thought of as antisocial by those same people as they get older. I'm sure those of us of more mature years can all think of stuff we did for fun when we were young that we'd frown about when youngsters do it now.
When I was at primary school a kid brought a detonator to school that he'd 'found' on the railway tracks. We had great fun chucking bricks at it in the back lane after school before it went off... It was loud! Then plenty of underage drinking in various public places as a teenager, no doubt we looked like a scary bunch of ne'erdowells although we were pretty harmless really. I actually think most kids these days are a bit soft, although some of them round here do stab each other occasionally. There's probably less low level teenage trouble making and agro in my patch of South London in 2023 though than in my small town in the 1990s.
Yes, I sympathise with kids of today, for whom underage drinking appears to have been made prohibitively difficult.
And I agree there seems a lot less casual violence nowadays. This may just be a product of ageing. But also, watch a few sitcoms from the 70s and 80s. Fights were a regular plot device, in a way which would seem implausible now.
There is the leaded petrol theory, of course.
Yup, the leaded petrol story looks quite convincing. I wonder too whether the long shadow of two world wars had an impact on how people interacted with each other, with people desensitised to violence and living with various traumas. The world has become feminised too, which is a good thing IMHO, making violence - which is more of a male trait - less acceptable.
Not just leaded petrol, but leaded paint too in many people's homes and on kids toys - unthinkable today.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
People always think crime is rising because people become more sensitised to crime as they age. Behaviour that is considered to be just having a laugh when people are young is more likely to be thought of as antisocial by those same people as they get older. I'm sure those of us of more mature years can all think of stuff we did for fun when we were young that we'd frown about when youngsters do it now.
When I was at primary school a kid brought a detonator to school that he'd 'found' on the railway tracks. We had great fun chucking bricks at it in the back lane after school before it went off... It was loud! Then plenty of underage drinking in various public places as a teenager, no doubt we looked like a scary bunch of ne'erdowells although we were pretty harmless really. I actually think most kids these days are a bit soft, although some of them round here do stab each other occasionally. There's probably less low level teenage trouble making and agro in my patch of South London in 2023 though than in my small town in the 1990s.
Yes, I sympathise with kids of today, for whom underage drinking appears to have been made prohibitively difficult.
And I agree there seems a lot less casual violence nowadays. This may just be a product of ageing. But also, watch a few sitcoms from the 70s and 80s. Fights were a regular plot device, in a way which would seem implausible now.
There is the leaded petrol theory, of course.
Underage drinking was so popular in the 70s and 80s because there was literally nothing else for 16 and 17 year olds to do.
The whole ‘cult of the child’ culture that has sprung up around parenting was absent back then. It truly was a different world.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
Which is essentially Leon's right-wing feed here: there's always some calamity or other that's about to befall us all, and they're all offered with minimal or missing evidence or thought.
Are you gonna start loitering by my wheelie bins?
We get more than enough of your rubbish on here.
Seriously. You remind me of this Chinese girl I used to date. In the end I chucked her, as nicely as I could, and for a while she sent me weird hostile messages, then the odd bid for reconciliation - even though I never replied
At the same time I’d sometimes find her outside my flat, by the bins, staring yearningly yet frustratedly, up at my windows. That’s you, that is
I love the talk about negative media on here this morning. Perhaps people should look at their own posts about the UK and how it is a basket case and how everything has collapsed.
lol. Well said
The PB Remoaners in particular paint a picture of Britain which is like a drizzly Zimbabwe
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
Which is essentially Leon's right-wing feed here: there's always some calamity or other that's about to befall us all, and they're all offered with minimal or missing evidence or thought.
Are you gonna start loitering by my wheelie bins?
We get more than enough of your rubbish on here.
Seriously. You remind me of this Chinese girl I used to date. In the end I chucked her, as nicely as I could, and for a while she sent me weird hostile messages, then the odd bid for reconciliation - even though I never replied
At the same time I’d sometimes find her outside my flat, by the bins, staring yearningly yet frustratedly, up at my windows. That’s you, that is
I don't know why but I really fancy a Maine lobster today.
Full ruling here, including the part where some joker tries to get Trump disqualified on the grounds that he says he won both the last two elections and you can only be elected twice.
Lincoln waiting to sign & publish the (First) Emancipation Proclamation until AFTER the Army of the Potomoc turned back Lee's invasion of Maryland at Battle of Antietam (Sharpsburg) in Sept 1862.
He was a masterful politician, particularly with respect to timing.
Hard to think of anyone better in that department.
One of my few political heroes. A politician of great principle who also was a calculating bastard when he needed to be.
Yes, Lincoln is my favourite politician. A truly great man, a far more attractive figure to me than the founding fathers, especially the hypocritical Virginians. When I'm in DC I always try to find some quiet time at his memorial. To think of the kind of absolute scum who now run under his party's banner, it's quite incredible.
The fact that the party of Lincoln now contains many who think the wrong side won the Civil War is an utter tragedy.
A bit like those who consider themselves "patriots" who use the symbolism of our (and their) enemy in WWII.
Its insanity and idiocy.
Ironically slavery caused the economic retardation of the southern states and the extreme inequalities of wealth which was so damaging to most southern whites.
Indeed, depressingly few southern whites seemed to recognise that slavery and racism was part of the same class warfare that kept them oppressed. Still seems to work on a lot of people. Sad!
Its blatantly obvious in Gone With The Wind where with the exception of the 'tart with a heart' brothel madam and the old soldier who was in Ashley's regiment the entire wwc appear to be some sort of criminal or reprobate.
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Agree that makes sense. Also a lot of crime has moved from violent crime to obtain cash, to non-violent crime to obtain cash. Nobody robs banks anymore and there are no wage heists because the source of those funds has dried up. The internet is a much more lucrative way to steal money and it is non-violent.
However that doesn't explain the reduction in mindless violence. I have no fear of walking on any street now. As a student in Manchester in the early 70s you were very careful and never went out on match day and my home village had its known thugs who would beat up teenagers for no apparent reason.
Against the trend I feel a lot safer as an older person now.
I don't know why but I really fancy a Maine lobster today.
Full ruling here, including the part where some joker tries to get Trump disqualified on the grounds that he says he won both the last two elections and you can only be elected twice.
Trump is disqualified in Maine as well as Colorado. How many more states will follow?
BTW, I like very much the argument that as Trump claims he's won two elections, he can't stand for election again.
Trump still favourite with Hill's at 6/5. I don't think they are wrong. Smarkets have it as 40%. Too much is being read into state actions which will bolster the Trumpian paranoid conspiracy theorists.
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Even controlling for demographics there's much less crime than should be expected, like-for-like. Young people today are far, far less like to both drink and commit crime than young people in the past.
There's very sound reasons why.
1: Legalised abortion - would-have-been criminals are disproportionately far more likely to be aborted so never born in the first place.
2: Technology - young people today are more likely to be at home looking at their phone or playing games than bored and getting up to no good on the streets.
3: Leaded fuel and paint, and its removal.
4. More cars so fewer people on the streets 5. More Muslims so fewer drunks (anyone who thinks no Muslims drink should get out more) 6. Fewer pubs so fewer drunks
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Agree that makes sense. Also a lot of crime has moved from violent crime to obtain cash, to non-violent crime to obtain cash. Nobody robs banks anymore and there are no wage heists because the source of those funds has dried up. The internet is a much more lucrative way to steal money and it is non-violent.
However that doesn't explain the reduction in mindless violence. I have no fear of walking on any street now. As a student in Manchester in the early 70s you were very careful and never went out on match day and my home village had its known thugs who would beat up teenagers for no apparent reason.
Against the trend I feel a lot safer as an older person now.
Yes. London feels physically safer now than it did in the 80s
The main peril today is petty theft - phone stealing, bike stealing. But that edge of violence - always bubbling under back in the day - has diminished
Ditto smaller towns and cities. I was in Falmouth for Christmas. Falmouth was positively gritty in the 80s-90s. A port town, a fishing town, a lot of drinking: fights
Now it’s boujie albeit with an underclass of addicts. But they are more pathetic and inert than menacing
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
No, it's technology. Which has also, of course, opened up new avenues for criminal activity. But technology has significantly increased crime prevention and deterrance, and significantly increased the likelihood of being caught. CCTV and DNA are two obvious examples, but there are many others. Think dashcams for dangerous driving, etc.
At the least, you need a lot more intelligence to be a successful criminal nowadays.
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Even controlling for demographics there's much less crime than should be expected, like-for-like. Young people today are far, far less like to both drink and commit crime than young people in the past.
There's very sound reasons why.
1: Legalised abortion - would-have-been criminals are disproportionately far more likely to be aborted so never born in the first place.
2: Technology - young people today are more likely to be at home looking at their phone or playing games than bored and getting up to no good on the streets.
3: Leaded fuel and paint, and its removal.
I think you are right on Item 2. Not so sure about the first and third. Yes they sound reasonable assumptions but I would like to see actual evidence for it. Assuming the bans remain, will crime be higher in US states with abortion bans compared to those without in a couple of decades? It will be interesting to see.
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Even controlling for demographics there's much less crime than should be expected, like-for-like. Young people today are far, far less like to both drink and commit crime than young people in the past.
There's very sound reasons why.
1: Legalised abortion - would-have-been criminals are disproportionately far more likely to be aborted so never born in the first place.
2: Technology - young people today are more likely to be at home looking at their phone or playing games than bored and getting up to no good on the streets.
3: Leaded fuel and paint, and its removal.
4. More cars so fewer people on the streets 5. More Muslims so fewer drunks (anyone who thinks no Muslims drink should get out more) 6. Fewer pubs so fewer drunks
5 & 6 are actually more about drinking alcohol no longer being the casual social default. In areas with virtually no Muslims, coffee shops/cafes abound, while pubs close.
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Even controlling for demographics there's much less crime than should be expected, like-for-like. Young people today are far, far less like to both drink and commit crime than young people in the past.
There's very sound reasons why.
1: Legalised abortion - would-have-been criminals are disproportionately far more likely to be aborted so never born in the first place.
2: Technology - young people today are more likely to be at home looking at their phone or playing games than bored and getting up to no good on the streets.
3: Leaded fuel and paint, and its removal.
I think you are right on Item 2. Not so sure about the first and third. Yes they sound reasonable assumptions but I would like to see actual evidence for it. Assuming the bans remain, will crime be higher in US states with abortion bans compared to those without in a couple of decades? It will be interesting to see.
On the leaded fuel, there was a piece of research a number of years ago: lead was banned by different countries at different times, and the research showed that in all cases, crime associated with young (late teens, early twenties) people, such as street violence, fell dramatically about ten to fifteen* years after the banning of leaded fuel. The conclusion was that the critical period was around 5 to 10* years of age. The key fact was that because of the staggering of the bans, there was no other common factor that could explain the fall. * Note: these numbers may not be 100% accurate, due tolapses in my memory, but are in the ballpark.
BBC Radio haters - there are some on PB - will hate the wonderful annual Looking Ahead 2024 prog on this evening at 8 pm. Radio at its best. Recommended:
My take on the fall in crime is technology has helped. Back in the day, I'd go to stolen car and motorbike fires a few times a week. Nicked, razzed around until it was fecked and then torched. Stereos nicked and sold in the pub. Nicking a modern basic car is probably beyond most opportunist ne'er do wells, and high end cars ( hello Range Rovers!) are targeted by pro thieves to make money so not torched. At the end of my career car fires were usually caused by crap maintenance and "natural" causes. Social media and the rise of cheap cameras and doorbells means it's risky to break into houses and try car doors in the middle of the night. I'd also agree that young 'uns today just seem generally nicer. My lads and their friends all seem much better people than I and my mates were at their age!
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Even controlling for demographics there's much less crime than should be expected, like-for-like. Young people today are far, far less like to both drink and commit crime than young people in the past.
There's very sound reasons why.
1: Legalised abortion - would-have-been criminals are disproportionately far more likely to be aborted so never born in the first place.
2: Technology - young people today are more likely to be at home looking at their phone or playing games than bored and getting up to no good on the streets.
3: Leaded fuel and paint, and its removal.
4. More cars so fewer people on the streets 5. More Muslims so fewer drunks (anyone who thinks no Muslims drink should get out more) 6. Fewer pubs so fewer drunks
I'd dispute #6. much more alcohol is drunk at home now than in the pub. whether that has changed how much is drunk and where it happens is open to debate.
when it comes to underage drinking there's been a cultural shift in those in their teens/20s than from 20 years ago. they are much less likely to drink at all, or only moderately, now.
Right, some of us have PROPER JOBS TO GO TO, unlike you shirkers
Later
I am at work. At my desk, editing video.
Caught up with your video on car insurance. I'm happy to report that I got my Transporter insurance at only 40 quid more than last year, but still more than I've ever paid for any vehicle before at 560 quid!
As a society, we have become less tolerant of resolving differences through fighting. Back in the 70/80s when I was in Leeds, I rarely had a night out without witnessing a punch-up. In the last 20 years, I've only witnessed a couple of such incidents - and yes, I do still go out on the town.
Look at top-level football as a symbol: 40/50 years ago, fist fights on the field, even in the top division, were quite common. Now, it never happens - they just square up to one another and. at worst, do a bit of pushing and mouthing off.
Probably worth pointing out that crime statistics distort lived reality. I moved from the NE of England to the NE of Scotland. Previously the crime rate locally was high enough to have police helicopters buzzing overhead on a regular basis looking for scallies. Now the helicopers pass overhead on their trip to and from oil platforms.
Same national crime statistics, very different lived experience. The poorer the area the worse the crime is. An epidemic of poverty-driven crime in poor areas which I suspect most of us don't experience and thus can easily dismiss from consideration.
BBC Radio haters - there are some on PB - will hate the wonderful annual Looking Ahead 2024 prog on this evening at 8 pm. Radio at its best. Recommended:
Probably worth pointing out that crime statistics distort lived reality. I moved from the NE of England to the NE of Scotland. Previously the crime rate locally was high enough to have police helicopters buzzing overhead on a regular basis looking for scallies. Now the helicopers pass overhead on their trip to and from oil platforms.
Same national crime statistics, very different lived experience. The poorer the area the worse the crime is. An epidemic of poverty-driven crime in poor areas which I suspect most of us don't experience and thus can easily dismiss from consideration.
Yes and no. There's more shoplifting, for instance, and (obviously) more mobile phone theft since before they were invented. Things like begging and taking drugs are technically illegal but most people would not see them as crimes. Gang-related stabbings are more likely to be seen on the news than on the way to the shops.
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Ageing societies (along with the existence of a powerful State), is the big change, I think.
A typical medieval society had a median age of 18, plenty of alcohol, easy access to weapons (or agricultural implements that could be used as weapons), and weak law enforcement. The results were inevitable.
That said, some places (eg Latin America, the Caribbean, South Africa), remain insanely violent. In the first two, it’s likely down to fights over the drugs trade.
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
No, it's technology. Which has also, of course, opened up new avenues for criminal activity. But technology has significantly increased crime prevention and deterrance, and significantly increased the likelihood of being caught. CCTV and DNA are two obvious examples, but there are many others. Think dashcams for dangerous driving, etc.
At the least, you need a lot more intelligence to be a successful criminal nowadays.
That's the odd thing though. CCTV and DNA have made detecting crime far easier, assuming the police can be bothered to look which is often not the case for low-level crime, but do not seem to deter crime. Look at the number of physical and sex assaults where the police issue a photo. A few cover their faces with scarves but by no means all.
BBC Radio haters - there are some on PB - will hate the wonderful annual Looking Ahead 2024 prog on this evening at 8 pm. Radio at its best. Recommended:
Sushi with Schumacher: Ex-F1 chef on catering for sport's big names ... ... "We were leaving the Suzuka Grand Prix. In those days, we'd give away our team kit and one of the mechanics threw his jacket out of the window and this fan was so happy and put this jacket on.
"As we were edging out of the circuit, this guy ran round the front and was stopping the bus, jumping and screaming, and he wouldn't move.
"Eventually the bus driver opened up the bus and in he came and gave the mechanic his Rolex watch which had been left in his jacket pocket. I'm not so sure that would happen in other countries." https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/67356057
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
The issue in the US is mostly of media and politicians, resulting in a very polarised society that values ‘lived experience’ over national statistics.
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
I don’t think the problem is valuing “lived experience”. Whatever you call it, the media have always preferred real people’s stories to abstract statistics. And a mismatch between actual crime rates and what the public thinks is common to many places and times.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
One characteristic of right wing media, both in the USA and here, is how negative it is. Always banging on about how the country is being ruined, the immigrants overrunning everything, crime out of control, economy stagnating, education rotten, civil service undermining everything etc. There is very little positivity about it, no hope no vision.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
And some of that is money, bad news sells. "It's a dangerous world, and only we can point out the dangers to you."
And some of it is holding on to power. "These are dangerous times, it's no time for a novice. Best let the grownups run things just a little bit longer. Heaven knows we would love to leave the stage, but sadly the time isn't ripe..."
And some of it is boomer jealousy of their parents, who got to be proper heroes fighting actual Nazis. The WW2 imagery was unavoidable during you-know-what. Now we have middlebrow hacks claiming that woke is like fascism.
Answer: What about the talks in 2024? It’s all perfectly clear.
1. The special military operation will continue, with its aim still being the disarmament of the Ukrainian forces, and abandonment of neo-nazi ideology by the present-day state of Ukraine. 2. Displacement of the ruling bandera regime is, though not openly stated, the most important and inevitable goal which must, and will be achieved. 3. Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Kiev, as well as many others are Russian cities, temporarily occupied. All of them are still marked by the colours of yellow and blue on the maps and pads.
And so, yes. The “talks” are possible, of course. Russia never rejected them – unlike the mad authorities of Ukraine. Such “talks” have no time limits. They can go on till full defeat and surrender of the North Atlantic Alliance’s bandera forces...
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Even controlling for demographics there's much less crime than should be expected, like-for-like. Young people today are far, far less like to both drink and commit crime than young people in the past.
There's very sound reasons why.
1: Legalised abortion - would-have-been criminals are disproportionately far more likely to be aborted so never born in the first place.
2: Technology - young people today are more likely to be at home looking at their phone or playing games than bored and getting up to no good on the streets.
3: Leaded fuel and paint, and its removal.
I think you are right on Item 2. Not so sure about the first and third. Yes they sound reasonable assumptions but I would like to see actual evidence for it. Assuming the bans remain, will crime be higher in US states with abortion bans compared to those without in a couple of decades? It will be interesting to see.
On the leaded fuel, there was a piece of research a number of years ago: lead was banned by different countries at different times, and the research showed that in all cases, crime associated with young (late teens, early twenties) people, such as street violence, fell dramatically about ten to fifteen* years after the banning of leaded fuel. The conclusion was that the critical period was around 5 to 10* years of age. The key fact was that because of the staggering of the bans, there was no other common factor that could explain the fall. * Note: these numbers may not be 100% accurate, due tolapses in my memory, but are in the ballpark.
Indeed. There's also comparable evidence, using the same logic of staggered dates too, to measure the abortion effect. The economists behind Freakonomics came up with this theory and its been expanded upon and further evidence has demonstrated it in the decades since it was released.
Just as there were staggered dates for the banning of lead in paint and fuel, there were staggered dates for the legalisation of abortion and you can see the corresponding fall in crime decades later that matches with those bans a generation earlier.
The US states which only legalised abortion with Roe v Wade had a later fall in crime rates than those which had legalised it earlier.
On a theoretical basis this theory makes sense - crime is committed more by people who as children their parents would not or could not support them, and abortion happens more when parents will not or can not support their child, so disproportionately abortion prevents future-criminals being born. On an evidentiary basis the evidence supports this too.
Now that's not to suggest that everyone has to support legalised abortion because of the crime effect. Policies of eugenics and forced sterilisation etc could also lower crime in the future by the same logic, but I would hope (almost) everyone here would oppose eugenics and forced sterilisation etc - its simply interesting that it is a real effect.
And yes I expect in 20-30 years time there will be a measurable difference between those states that have recently criminalised abortion and those which have not in America.
BBC Radio haters - there are some on PB - will hate the wonderful annual Looking Ahead 2024 prog on this evening at 8 pm. Radio at its best. Recommended:
I wonder if in 30 years time we'll be talking about air pollution and micro plastics in the same way we are talking about leaded fuel now.
Probably not, as lead is a much more serious neurotoxin. But we already talk about air pollution affecting health outcomes, so probably not 30 years either.
In Korea they report the levels of 'fine dust' along with the weather. Which partly accounts for their being keener on masks than we are.
Answer: What about the talks in 2024? It’s all perfectly clear.
1. The special military operation will continue, with its aim still being the disarmament of the Ukrainian forces, and abandonment of neo-nazi ideology by the present-day state of Ukraine. 2. Displacement of the ruling bandera regime is, though not openly stated, the most important and inevitable goal which must, and will be achieved. 3. Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Kiev, as well as many others are Russian cities, temporarily occupied. All of them are still marked by the colours of yellow and blue on the maps and pads.
And so, yes. The “talks” are possible, of course. Russia never rejected them – unlike the mad authorities of Ukraine. Such “talks” have no time limits. They can go on till full defeat and surrender of the North Atlantic Alliance’s bandera forces...
MVP for Putin is Ukraine not joining EU or NATO, as a start.
Answer: What about the talks in 2024? It’s all perfectly clear.
1. The special military operation will continue, with its aim still being the disarmament of the Ukrainian forces, and abandonment of neo-nazi ideology by the present-day state of Ukraine. 2. Displacement of the ruling bandera regime is, though not openly stated, the most important and inevitable goal which must, and will be achieved. 3. Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Kiev, as well as many others are Russian cities, temporarily occupied. All of them are still marked by the colours of yellow and blue on the maps and pads.
And so, yes. The “talks” are possible, of course. Russia never rejected them – unlike the mad authorities of Ukraine. Such “talks” have no time limits. They can go on till full defeat and surrender of the North Atlantic Alliance’s bandera forces...
MVP for Putin is Ukraine not joining EU or NATO, as a start.
Ukraine is unlikely to agree to any peace deal without the promise of NATO membership.
The main reason for falling crime worldwide is, surely, ageing societies
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
Even controlling for demographics there's much less crime than should be expected, like-for-like. Young people today are far, far less like to both drink and commit crime than young people in the past.
There's very sound reasons why.
1: Legalised abortion - would-have-been criminals are disproportionately far more likely to be aborted so never born in the first place.
2: Technology - young people today are more likely to be at home looking at their phone or playing games than bored and getting up to no good on the streets.
3: Leaded fuel and paint, and its removal.
I think you are right on Item 2. Not so sure about the first and third. Yes they sound reasonable assumptions but I would like to see actual evidence for it. Assuming the bans remain, will crime be higher in US states with abortion bans compared to those without in a couple of decades? It will be interesting to see.
On the leaded fuel, there was a piece of research a number of years ago: lead was banned by different countries at different times, and the research showed that in all cases, crime associated with young (late teens, early twenties) people, such as street violence, fell dramatically about ten to fifteen* years after the banning of leaded fuel. The conclusion was that the critical period was around 5 to 10* years of age. The key fact was that because of the staggering of the bans, there was no other common factor that could explain the fall. * Note: these numbers may not be 100% accurate, due tolapses in my memory, but are in the ballpark.
Indeed. There's also comparable evidence, using the same logic of staggered dates too, to measure the abortion effect. The economists behind Freakonomics came up with this theory and its been expanded upon and further evidence has demonstrated it in the decades since it was released.
Just as there were staggered dates for the banning of lead in paint and fuel, there were staggered dates for the legalisation of abortion and you can see the corresponding fall in crime decades later that matches with those bans a generation earlier.
The US states which only legalised abortion with Roe v Wade had a later fall in crime rates than those which had legalised it earlier.
On a theoretical basis this theory makes sense - crime is committed more by people who as children their parents would not or could not support them, and abortion happens more when parents will not or can not support their child, so disproportionately abortion prevents future-criminals being born. On an evidentiary basis the evidence supports this too.
Now that's not to suggest that everyone has to support legalised abortion because of the crime effect. Policies of eugenics and forced sterilisation etc could also lower crime in the future by the same logic, but I would hope (almost) everyone here would oppose eugenics and forced sterilisation etc - its simply interesting that it is a real effect.
And yes I expect in 20-30 years time there will be a measurable difference between those states that have recently criminalised abortion and those which have not in America.
The effect will be sooner because abortion access had already been considerably reduced in many red states.
BBC Radio haters - there are some on PB - will hate the wonderful annual Looking Ahead 2024 prog on this evening at 8 pm. Radio at its best. Recommended:
Answer: What about the talks in 2024? It’s all perfectly clear.
1. The special military operation will continue, with its aim still being the disarmament of the Ukrainian forces, and abandonment of neo-nazi ideology by the present-day state of Ukraine. 2. Displacement of the ruling bandera regime is, though not openly stated, the most important and inevitable goal which must, and will be achieved. 3. Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Kiev, as well as many others are Russian cities, temporarily occupied. All of them are still marked by the colours of yellow and blue on the maps and pads.
And so, yes. The “talks” are possible, of course. Russia never rejected them – unlike the mad authorities of Ukraine. Such “talks” have no time limits. They can go on till full defeat and surrender of the North Atlantic Alliance’s bandera forces...
Medvedev is as much in touch with reality as Hitler in January 1945.
Trump also said he would scrap the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has attracted many Korean EV battery makers and materials suppliers to build factories in America with the aim of receiving handsome tax incentives. LGES and SK On have already reflected considerable amounts of advanced manufacturing production credits (AMPCs) in their operating profits in 2023.
Securities analysts warned that the Korean battery industry will grapple with uncertainties until the U.S. presidential election has been decided...
..According to the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, the combined annual production capacity of the North American factories of LGES, Samsung SDI and SK On will reach 428.5GWh in 2025, as the top three EV battery makers have accelerated their expansions in the U.S. and Canada.
Considering their average capital expenditure is $100 million per GWh, their combined capital expenditures in North America will likely reach $43 billion in 2025...
That's not far off enough battery manufacturing capacity to supply half of the total US car market.
On topic, Sunak won't rule out a May election because that's the window he's aiming for.
However, he won't call a May election because despite the Tories' preparations, the polls will stick stubbornly against them and you don't call an election you'll get battered in, if there's still the prospect that 'something might turn up'. In March, October or November will look more attractive.
And hence, yes, Sunak will get called a bottler.
That said, I don't think it'll make much difference either way. Brown's reputation took a big hit because he had been seen as a commanding intellect running a strong economy; a man who could take difficult decisions and get them right; someone who could anticipate events and act in advance. A serious politician. The Election That Never Was undermined all that.
By contrast, Sunak is already seen as weak, prone to U-turns and someone to be pushed about by the internal Tory factions. Plus, public services, immigration and the economy will matter a good deal more than personal ratings, the foundations for which are mostly already baked in anyway.
Answer: What about the talks in 2024? It’s all perfectly clear.
1. The special military operation will continue, with its aim still being the disarmament of the Ukrainian forces, and abandonment of neo-nazi ideology by the present-day state of Ukraine. 2. Displacement of the ruling bandera regime is, though not openly stated, the most important and inevitable goal which must, and will be achieved. 3. Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Kiev, as well as many others are Russian cities, temporarily occupied. All of them are still marked by the colours of yellow and blue on the maps and pads.
And so, yes. The “talks” are possible, of course. Russia never rejected them – unlike the mad authorities of Ukraine. Such “talks” have no time limits. They can go on till full defeat and surrender of the North Atlantic Alliance’s bandera forces...
MVP for Putin is Ukraine not joining EU or NATO, as a start.
Ukraine joining with Poland would make a mighty eastern European powerhouse of a nation. In NATO, in the EU.
Then give Russia 14 days to leave all NATO territory. Including eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
BBC Radio haters - there are some on PB - will hate the wonderful annual Looking Ahead 2024 prog on this evening at 8 pm. Radio at its best. Recommended:
Answer: What about the talks in 2024? It’s all perfectly clear.
1. The special military operation will continue, with its aim still being the disarmament of the Ukrainian forces, and abandonment of neo-nazi ideology by the present-day state of Ukraine. 2. Displacement of the ruling bandera regime is, though not openly stated, the most important and inevitable goal which must, and will be achieved. 3. Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Kiev, as well as many others are Russian cities, temporarily occupied. All of them are still marked by the colours of yellow and blue on the maps and pads.
And so, yes. The “talks” are possible, of course. Russia never rejected them – unlike the mad authorities of Ukraine. Such “talks” have no time limits. They can go on till full defeat and surrender of the North Atlantic Alliance’s bandera forces...
MVP for Putin is Ukraine not joining EU or NATO, as a start.
Ukraine is unlikely to agree to any peace deal without the promise of NATO membership.
And they will join the EU.
It will be interesting to see what the “pragmatists” say if Russia makes such a formal offer.
Answer: What about the talks in 2024? It’s all perfectly clear.
1. The special military operation will continue, with its aim still being the disarmament of the Ukrainian forces, and abandonment of neo-nazi ideology by the present-day state of Ukraine. 2. Displacement of the ruling bandera regime is, though not openly stated, the most important and inevitable goal which must, and will be achieved. 3. Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Kiev, as well as many others are Russian cities, temporarily occupied. All of them are still marked by the colours of yellow and blue on the maps and pads.
And so, yes. The “talks” are possible, of course. Russia never rejected them – unlike the mad authorities of Ukraine. Such “talks” have no time limits. They can go on till full defeat and surrender of the North Atlantic Alliance’s bandera forces...
Medvedev is as much in touch with reality as Hitler in January 1945.
That's not incompatible with his being in touch with Putin's thinking.
Trump also said he would scrap the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has attracted many Korean EV battery makers and materials suppliers to build factories in America with the aim of receiving handsome tax incentives. LGES and SK On have already reflected considerable amounts of advanced manufacturing production credits (AMPCs) in their operating profits in 2023.
Securities analysts warned that the Korean battery industry will grapple with uncertainties until the U.S. presidential election has been decided...
..According to the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, the combined annual production capacity of the North American factories of LGES, Samsung SDI and SK On will reach 428.5GWh in 2025, as the top three EV battery makers have accelerated their expansions in the U.S. and Canada.
Considering their average capital expenditure is $100 million per GWh, their combined capital expenditures in North America will likely reach $43 billion in 2025...
That's not far off enough battery manufacturing capacity to supply half of the total US car market.
Batteries aren't just useful for cars but for offsetting energy usage too of course. Wind and solar energy is far more domestically secure, doesn't rely upon imports and is cheaper than fossil fuels, but it needs batteries to offset production of energy to demand of energy.
Only a Putinist idiot would rather we import fossil fuels from the Middle East or Russia than use our own natural resources like wind and sunshine to get sustainable, cheap energy.
Sadly too many imbeciles are Putinist idiots, but the market will win out thank goodness. Cheap domestic energy will beat expensive imports.
Even without discussing issues of cleanliness, the war is won, we're switching to renewables, its just a case of the market playing out over time.
Those stats ignore Energy from Waste (EfW) plants. Around 50% of their fuel (by energy content) is of fossil origin - e.g., waste plastics. Their generating efficiency is low (since they are waste disposal plants that export power as a bit of a Brucie Bonus), so the carbon intensity of fossil CO2 emissions per kWh is, iirc, roughly the same as a natural gas fired CCGT.
Adding carbon capture to EfW plants will make them net carbon negative. They could then potentially sell net negative emissions credits to sectors such as aviation to balance out their net positive CO2 emissions and give us an overall Net Zero. By 2050. Perhaps.
On topic, Sunak won't rule out a May election because that's the window he's aiming for.
However, he won't call a May election because despite the Tories' preparations, the polls will stick stubbornly against them and you don't call an election you'll get battered in, if there's still the prospect that 'something might turn up'. In March, October or November will look more attractive.
And hence, yes, Sunak will get called a bottler.
That said, I don't think it'll make much difference either way. Brown's reputation took a big hit because he had been seen as a commanding intellect running a strong economy; a man who could take difficult decisions and get them right; someone who could anticipate events and act in advance. A serious politician. The Election That Never Was undermined all that.
By contrast, Sunak is already seen as weak, prone to U-turns and someone to be pushed about by the internal Tory factions. Plus, public services, immigration and the economy will matter a good deal more than personal ratings, the foundations for which are mostly already baked in anyway.
In which case Sunak's problem will be that he has blown a considerable bit of his pretendy election warchest on the NI cut in January and whatever rabbit Hunt pulls from his hat in March. They probably won't work anyway, but dribbling them out like this won't help.
Oh (and hat tip to Torsten Bell for this), the final cost of living payment goes out in February 2024. For a lot of people, the money:month calculation is definitely not going to get better next year.
“When you think about the family, it’s about stability. Most of the kids who struggle in Bury are the products of crap parents and so what do we do to try to address that issue? “On the left it would just be: we’ll throw money at this and hope something sticks. Somebody like me thinks about this more fundamentally.”..
The article doesn't reveal what prescriptions his 'more fundamental' thinking* suggests. Anyone ?
*Unless that was a polite way of saying he does his thinking with his arse ?
“When you think about the family, it’s about stability. Most of the kids who struggle in Bury are the products of crap parents and so what do we do to try to address that issue? “On the left it would just be: we’ll throw money at this and hope something sticks. Somebody like me thinks about this more fundamentally.”..
The article doesn't reveal what prescriptions his 'more fundamental' thinking* suggests. Anyone ?
*Unless that was a polite way of saying he does his thinking with his arse ?
He's not wrong.
But how do you fix it is another question.
As far as I'm aware the single biggest determiner of whether a teenager succeeds at school, or an adult succeeds economically, isn't class or race or sex, its reading. And in particular, do parents read to their children when they're young.
But how you fix that? How you resolve issues for kids of parents who can't or won't make an effort, can't or won't read to them. Kids that grow up in homes with no books? I have no magic answer to any of that.
But she does have a point: imprison him and he is a martyr. Shame him, pardon him and ignore him then the healing can begin
He has no shame.
Besides, it's unlikely he'd accept a pardon, which would imply he'd committed a crime - something he doesn't accept. If he'd been convicted, maybe; certainly not before.
There was plenty of chatter in 2020/21 as to whether Trump would or could pardon himself. The US constitution doesn't rule it out and I expect that if Trump believed it would give him immunity, he'd have done it - except that to accept a pardon is to admit a crime. Pardons have been refused on precisely that point.
“When you think about the family, it’s about stability. Most of the kids who struggle in Bury are the products of crap parents and so what do we do to try to address that issue? “On the left it would just be: we’ll throw money at this and hope something sticks. Somebody like me thinks about this more fundamentally.”..
The article doesn't reveal what prescriptions his 'more fundamental' thinking* suggests. Anyone ?
*Unless that was a polite way of saying he does his thinking with his arse ?
He's not wrong.
But how do you fix it is another question.
As far as I'm aware the single biggest determiner of whether a teenager succeeds at school, or an adult succeeds economically, isn't class or race or sex, its reading. And in particular, do parents read to their children when they're young.
But how you fix that? How you resolve issues for kids of parents who can't or won't make an effort, can't or won't read to them. Kids that grow up in homes with no books? I have no magic answer to any of that.
Which Mince MP said that? Are there parents doing a crap job? Yes. Is that exclusively the fault of the parents? No. You want something to blame? Scrapping Sure Start...
More Pointless Brexit red tape adding costs for consumers and damaging our economy. The gift that keeps on giving.
The Good News is that Plan A is and remains 2nd May. Sunak may prove frit, but he won't move to rule out the date which the entire Treasury machine is now revolving around.
That means we can get a change of government and demolish some of this post-Brexit stupidity. What the Tories never understood is that outside of the EEA the UK is a small market, which makes it deeply unattractive if we set ourselves up where Uk standards are slightly off-set from the EEA ones because thats what 17.4m people voted for.
I hope so. Given the centrality of the poor supply of new housing in this country to all our problems, the fact that the government is loading a whole new set of costs on the construction sector in the name of some meaningless concept of sovereignty is quite incredible. Brexit seems to have made us mad.
Have you looked at Saint Gibson’s role in Grenfell? Or VW’s emissions testing?
Signing off your own quality standards is common place. Most countries do it for most products.
“When you think about the family, it’s about stability. Most of the kids who struggle in Bury are the products of crap parents and so what do we do to try to address that issue? “On the left it would just be: we’ll throw money at this and hope something sticks. Somebody like me thinks about this more fundamentally.”..
The article doesn't reveal what prescriptions his 'more fundamental' thinking* suggests. Anyone ?
*Unless that was a polite way of saying he does his thinking with his arse ?
I didn't realise Boris spent much time up in Bury.
But she does have a point: imprison him and he is a martyr. Shame him, pardon him and ignore him then the healing can begin
He has no shame.
Besides, it's unlikely he'd accept a pardon, which would imply he'd committed a crime - something he doesn't accept. If he'd been convicted, maybe; certainly not before...
But she does have a point: imprison him and he is a martyr. Shame him, pardon him and ignore him then the healing can begin
He has no shame.
Besides, it's unlikely he'd accept a pardon, which would imply he'd committed a crime - something he doesn't accept. If he'd been convicted, maybe; certainly not before...
He'd indubitably accept a pardon from himself.
The evidence says otherwise, given that he was in a position to give himself one, and didn't.
On topic, Sunak won't rule out a May election because that's the window he's aiming for.
However, he won't call a May election because despite the Tories' preparations, the polls will stick stubbornly against them and you don't call an election you'll get battered in, if there's still the prospect that 'something might turn up'. In March, October or November will look more attractive.
And hence, yes, Sunak will get called a bottler.
That said, I don't think it'll make much difference either way. Brown's reputation took a big hit because he had been seen as a commanding intellect running a strong economy; a man who could take difficult decisions and get them right; someone who could anticipate events and act in advance. A serious politician. The Election That Never Was undermined all that.
By contrast, Sunak is already seen as weak, prone to U-turns and someone to be pushed about by the internal Tory factions. Plus, public services, immigration and the economy will matter a good deal more than personal ratings, the foundations for which are mostly already baked in anyway.
Also if the polls are improving a bit by Spring (such that a less heavy defeat looks possible) the natural urge will be to give them time to improve a bit more and bring a hung parliament (or even a narrow win) into the frame. Either way (polls improving or not) the likely decision is to wait. But not to the bitter end (the risk/reward of that doesn't work at all) so Oct/Nov looks a strong fav to me. The only way I see May is if the polls have turned dramatically in the Cons favour by the end of Q1. Chances of this? Almost nil imo. Perceptions are too rooted now. You'd need some calamity befalling Labour and Starmer is all about ensuring that doesn't get a sniff of happening.
Turkey, South Africa and Kenya also proposed - as was legislation incompatible with the ECHR.
Revealing of Blair's thought on the matter: ..Guidance from Home Office ministers was that such measures would breach the UN convention on refugees, with Blair scribbling on one document: “Just return them. This is precisely the point. We must not allow the ECHR to stop us dealing with it.”..
Why Mull? Why not go the whole hog and stick them on St Kilda? Or Rockall?
There seems to be something really weird in the British (or is it the Home Office?) psyche here.
Just return them is fine. Assuming you know where they have come from, and can assure their safety. Which we often can’t.
Someone in the Cabinet Office probably thought it would be amusing to Mull it over.
They could have sent them somewhere even more Barra-n.
I'm sure they'd get Uist to it.
Don't egg him on
The kintyre lot of them are idiots.
Indeed, not an Iona of intelligence between them, barely have their mind in Gigha, and almost certain to Muck things up, come what May.
Vatersay?
Connected to Barra by a causeway. Not remote enough. Why not somewhere properly remote and disconnected. Like Skegness.
Don’t be Sarky. Or I’ll Breq-you by posting Perry Como music
But she does have a point: imprison him and he is a martyr. Shame him, pardon him and ignore him then the healing can begin
He has no shame.
Besides, it's unlikely he'd accept a pardon, which would imply he'd committed a crime - something he doesn't accept. If he'd been convicted, maybe; certainly not before...
He'd indubitably accept a pardon from himself.
The evidence says otherwise, given that he was in a position to give himself one, and didn't.
That was then, though. A second term Trump wouldn't have to worry about public perception.
The offer wouldn't be a certainty; the acceptance would.
Comments
Other countries in Europe don’t try and implant Minority Report. They simply issue a card with a unique ID number. This actually works, doesn’t involve a Giant Government IT Project (aka multi decade failure) and doesn’t break the law, data protection requirements or reality.
The price for my support is the indefinite detention without trial, plus regular torture, of the officials who want the stupid database stuff.
To misquote Lincoln - when someone proposes extra-legal stuff, I have a strong desire to see it practised upon him.
Then plenty of underage drinking in various public places as a teenager, no doubt we looked like a scary bunch of ne'erdowells although we were pretty harmless really. I actually think most kids these days are a bit soft, although some of them round here do stab each other occasionally. There's probably less low level teenage trouble making and agro in my patch of South London in 2023 though than in my small town in the 1990s.
On my 2024 predictions list, is a serious attempt by US authorities to take out Twitter before the election.
Are you gonna start loitering by my wheelie bins?
And I agree there seems a lot less casual violence nowadays. This may just be a product of ageing. But also, watch a few sitcoms from the 70s and 80s. Fights were a regular plot device, in a way which would seem implausible now.
There is the leaded petrol theory, of course.
With the only 'hope and vision' being to spend more money. On themselves.
If that's right, in 20 years time [some states in] the USA will see a genuine rise in crime.
Young people commit most crime. Fewer youngsters = less crime. This also explains the discrepancy in perception. Older people are more sensitive to crime. More old people = more perceived crime
And some of it is holding on to power. "These are dangerous times, it's no time for a novice. Best let the grownups run things just a little bit longer. Heaven knows we would love to leave the stage, but sadly the time isn't ripe..."
And some of it is boomer jealousy of their parents, who got to be proper heroes fighting actual Nazis. The WW2 imagery was unavoidable during you-know-what. Now we have middlebrow hacks claiming that woke is like fascism.
https://twitter.com/HS2ltd/status/1740674148546871736?t=n75bl_T59sgAQPLqmjgflw&s=19
There's very sound reasons why.
1: Legalised abortion - would-have-been criminals are disproportionately far more likely to be aborted so never born in the first place.
2: Technology - young people today are more likely to be at home looking at their phone or playing games than bored and getting up to no good on the streets.
3: Leaded fuel and paint, and its removal.
The whole ‘cult of the child’ culture that has sprung up around parenting was absent back then. It truly was a different world.
At the same time I’d sometimes find her outside my flat, by the bins, staring yearningly yet frustratedly, up at my windows. That’s you, that is
LET IT GO, IAN
The PB Remoaners in particular paint a picture of Britain which is like a drizzly Zimbabwe
BTW, I like very much the argument that as Trump claims he's won two elections, he can't stand for election again.
However that doesn't explain the reduction in mindless violence. I have no fear of walking on any street now. As a student in Manchester in the early 70s you were very careful and never went out on match day and my home village had its known thugs who would beat up teenagers for no apparent reason.
Against the trend I feel a lot safer as an older person now.
5. More Muslims so fewer drunks (anyone who thinks no Muslims drink should get out more)
6. Fewer pubs so fewer drunks
The main peril today is petty theft - phone stealing, bike stealing. But that edge of violence - always bubbling under back in the day - has diminished
Ditto smaller towns and cities. I was in Falmouth for Christmas. Falmouth was positively gritty in the 80s-90s. A port town, a fishing town, a lot of drinking: fights
Now it’s boujie albeit with an underclass of addicts. But they are more pathetic and inert than menacing
At the least, you need a lot more intelligence to be a successful criminal nowadays.
Later
* Note: these numbers may not be 100% accurate, due tolapses in my memory, but are in the ballpark.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001tr6z
Listening to the one a year ago is revealing too. No-one knows anything, but some discuss it better than others.
Social media and the rise of cheap cameras and doorbells means it's risky to break into houses and try car doors in the middle of the night.
I'd also agree that young 'uns today just seem generally nicer. My lads and their friends all seem much better people than I and my mates were at their age!
when it comes to underage drinking there's been a cultural shift in those in their teens/20s than from 20 years ago. they are much less likely to drink at all, or only moderately, now.
Look at top-level football as a symbol: 40/50 years ago, fist fights on the field, even in the top division, were quite common. Now, it never happens - they just square up to one another and. at worst, do a bit of pushing and mouthing off.
Same national crime statistics, very different lived experience. The poorer the area the worse the crime is. An epidemic of poverty-driven crime in poor areas which I suspect most of us don't experience and thus can easily dismiss from consideration.
A typical medieval society had a median age of 18, plenty of alcohol, easy access to weapons (or agricultural implements that could be used as weapons), and weak law enforcement. The results were inevitable.
That said, some places (eg Latin America, the Caribbean, South Africa), remain insanely violent. In the first two, it’s likely down to fights over the drugs trade.
Which is pretty dire.
...
...
"We were leaving the Suzuka Grand Prix. In those days, we'd give away our team kit and one of the mechanics threw his jacket out of the window and this fan was so happy and put this jacket on.
"As we were edging out of the circuit, this guy ran round the front and was stopping the bus, jumping and screaming, and he wouldn't move.
"Eventually the bus driver opened up the bus and in he came and gave the mechanic his Rolex watch which had been left in his jacket pocket. I'm not so sure that would happen in other countries."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/67356057
In vodka veritas.
https://twitter.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/1740296677108371590
..The collective West, having wasted almost all of its weapons, starts to push the Kiev regime to engage in talks in 2024. Is that possible?
Answer:
What about the talks in 2024? It’s all perfectly clear.
1. The special military operation will continue, with its aim still being the disarmament of the Ukrainian forces, and abandonment of neo-nazi ideology by the present-day state of Ukraine.
2. Displacement of the ruling bandera regime is, though not openly stated, the most important and inevitable goal which must, and will be achieved.
3. Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkov, Nikolaev, Kiev, as well as many others are Russian cities, temporarily occupied. All of them are still marked by the colours of yellow and blue on the maps and pads.
And so, yes. The “talks” are possible, of course. Russia never rejected them – unlike the mad authorities of Ukraine. Such “talks” have no time limits. They can go on till full defeat and surrender of the North Atlantic Alliance’s bandera forces...
Just as there were staggered dates for the banning of lead in paint and fuel, there were staggered dates for the legalisation of abortion and you can see the corresponding fall in crime decades later that matches with those bans a generation earlier.
The US states which only legalised abortion with Roe v Wade had a later fall in crime rates than those which had legalised it earlier.
On a theoretical basis this theory makes sense - crime is committed more by people who as children their parents would not or could not support them, and abortion happens more when parents will not or can not support their child, so disproportionately abortion prevents future-criminals being born. On an evidentiary basis the evidence supports this too.
Now that's not to suggest that everyone has to support legalised abortion because of the crime effect. Policies of eugenics and forced sterilisation etc could also lower crime in the future by the same logic, but I would hope (almost) everyone here would oppose eugenics and forced sterilisation etc - its simply interesting that it is a real effect.
And yes I expect in 20-30 years time there will be a measurable difference between those states that have recently criminalised abortion and those which have not in America.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk
But we already talk about air pollution affecting health outcomes, so probably not 30 years either.
In Korea they report the levels of 'fine dust' along with the weather.
Which partly accounts for their being keener on masks than we are.
And they will join the EU.
Microplastics are the biggest environmental / ecological threat the planet currently faces, bigger even than global heating.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=366014
..In his second-term agenda, which is better known as Agenda 47, the strongest Republican candidate vowed to abolish the Joe Biden administration's EV-friendly policies.
Trump also said he would scrap the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has attracted many Korean EV battery makers and materials suppliers to build factories in America with the aim of receiving handsome tax incentives. LGES and SK On have already reflected considerable amounts of advanced manufacturing production credits (AMPCs) in their operating profits in 2023.
Securities analysts warned that the Korean battery industry will grapple with uncertainties until the U.S. presidential election has been decided...
..According to the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, the combined annual production capacity of the North American factories of LGES, Samsung SDI and SK On will reach 428.5GWh in 2025, as the top three EV battery makers have accelerated their expansions in the U.S. and Canada.
Considering their average capital expenditure is $100 million per GWh, their combined capital expenditures in North America will likely reach $43 billion in 2025...
That's not far off enough battery manufacturing capacity to supply half of the total US car market.
However, he won't call a May election because despite the Tories' preparations, the polls will stick stubbornly against them and you don't call an election you'll get battered in, if there's still the prospect that 'something might turn up'. In March, October or November will look more attractive.
And hence, yes, Sunak will get called a bottler.
That said, I don't think it'll make much difference either way. Brown's reputation took a big hit because he had been seen as a commanding intellect running a strong economy; a man who could take difficult decisions and get them right; someone who could anticipate events and act in advance. A serious politician. The Election That Never Was undermined all that.
By contrast, Sunak is already seen as weak, prone to U-turns and someone to be pushed about by the internal Tory factions. Plus, public services, immigration and the economy will matter a good deal more than personal ratings, the foundations for which are mostly already baked in anyway.
https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1740679317573537809
Then give Russia 14 days to leave all NATO territory. Including eastern Ukraine and Crimea.
Only a Putinist idiot would rather we import fossil fuels from the Middle East or Russia than use our own natural resources like wind and sunshine to get sustainable, cheap energy.
Sadly too many imbeciles are Putinist idiots, but the market will win out thank goodness. Cheap domestic energy will beat expensive imports.
Even without discussing issues of cleanliness, the war is won, we're switching to renewables, its just a case of the market playing out over time.
Adding carbon capture to EfW plants will make them net carbon negative. They could then potentially sell net negative emissions credits to sectors such as aviation to balance out their net positive CO2 emissions and give us an overall Net Zero. By 2050. Perhaps.
But she does have a point: imprison him and he is a martyr. Shame him, pardon him and ignore him then the healing can begin
Oh (and hat tip to Torsten Bell for this), the final cost of living payment goes out in February 2024. For a lot of people, the money:month calculation is definitely not going to get better next year.
https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/from-merry-christmas-to-a-messy-new-year/
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/29/tory-mp-james-daly-struggling-children-bury-north-crap-parents
..Daly told the i newspaper: “I think New Conservatives represent very much working-class conservatism. We’re not a strange rightwing sect. It’s just people who want to give people the best chance to succeed and thrive in life.
“When you think about the family, it’s about stability. Most of the kids who struggle in Bury are the products of crap parents and so what do we do to try to address that issue? “On the left it would just be: we’ll throw money at this and hope something sticks. Somebody like me thinks about this more fundamentally.”..
The article doesn't reveal what prescriptions his 'more fundamental' thinking* suggests.
Anyone ?
*Unless that was a polite way of saying he does his thinking with his arse ?
But how do you fix it is another question.
As far as I'm aware the single biggest determiner of whether a teenager succeeds at school, or an adult succeeds economically, isn't class or race or sex, its reading. And in particular, do parents read to their children when they're young.
But how you fix that? How you resolve issues for kids of parents who can't or won't make an effort, can't or won't read to them. Kids that grow up in homes with no books? I have no magic answer to any of that.
Besides, it's unlikely he'd accept a pardon, which would imply he'd committed a crime - something he doesn't accept. If he'd been convicted, maybe; certainly not before.
There was plenty of chatter in 2020/21 as to whether Trump would or could pardon himself. The US constitution doesn't rule it out and I expect that if Trump believed it would give him immunity, he'd have done it - except that to accept a pardon is to admit a crime. Pardons have been refused on precisely that point.
Signing off your own quality standards is common place. Most countries do it for most products.
As a species, we deserve to suffer the consequences. But other species and the natural environment do not.
For instance the milestone earlier this year:
Wind is main source of UK electricity for first time
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65557469.amp
A second term Trump wouldn't have to worry about public perception.
The offer wouldn't be a certainty; the acceptance would.