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Bottler Sunak? – politicalbetting.com
Bottler Sunak? – politicalbetting.com
Tories need to rule out May election soon if they don’t intend to call one or Labour’s “bottled it” narrative will dominate.
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My holiday started the 20th of December and doesn't end until the 8th of January, and every bloody morning I wake up at 5ish.
With Sunak, the question is, is he a pint sized bottler or a 75cl bottler?
The attitude of the French police to British fans contributed heavily to the chaos and “disgraceful treatment” of Liverpool fans at the 2022 Champions League final in Paris, a report by MPs has found.
The report by the culture, media and sport select committee calls on the government to step up British police collaboration with overseas forces to reduce the risk of trouble at football matches.
The arrangements to handle English and Scottish supporters are set to be under the microscope when Germany hosts Uefa’s Euro 2024 tournament in the summer.
The committee’s report states: “The treatment of Liverpool fans by French authorities at the 2022 Champions League final was disgraceful and worsened by attempts of the authorities and Uefa to blame the supporters. The attitude of foreign police forces to UK football fans heavily contributed to the chaos.
“The government should work to foster improved relationships with other governments on policing sporting events in order to bolster the role of British police travelling with UK teams and their collaboration with local forces.”
The report states there is some “institutional resistance” to co-operation with some overseas forces, and at one Champions League match Chief Constable Mark Roberts testified he “was thrown out of the control room because I was asking questions about the way the fans were being dealt with”.
The report also backs a private member’s bill by the Cardiff West MP and committee member Kevin Brennan to make tailgating — where a ticketless person follows someone with a ticket through a turnstile — a criminal offence.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/french-police-paris-champions-league-final-chaos-mps-g2khlcjf7
https://www.maine.gov/sos/news/2023/Decision in Challenge to Trump Presidential Primary Petitions.pdf
What's undeniable either way is that it is legendary.
1) @TSE’s modesty
2) @TSE’s shoe collection
?
Hanging on to the bitter end will attract plenty of attacks other than 'bottler'.
The only upside I can see for the Tories would be if Labour prematurely publish their manifesto and they nick some if its ideas.
Would that be particularly likely, or helpful to them ?
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4381086-haley-says-shed-pardon-trump-as-president/
(One interesting point on the North's attitude to slavery that got overlooked on the previous thread - in 1861 the Northern Congressional delegates put forward a draft 13th Amendment that would have guaranteed slavery where it existed, in order to buy off southern secessionists. Had they accepted that, it would then have made it much more difficult to later abolish slavery. However, the rebellion continued and in 1865 the actual 13th Amendment abolished slavery.)
Rwanda-style asylum plan was ‘nuclear option’ for Blair in 2003, records reveal
Report set out ‘radical measures’ to reduce numbers arriving, including setting up holding camps on Scottish island of Mull
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/29/tony-blair-rwanda-style-asylum-plan-2003
Turkey, South Africa and Kenya also proposed - as was legislation incompatible with the ECHR.
Revealing of Blair's thought on the matter:
..Guidance from Home Office ministers was that such measures would breach the UN convention on refugees, with Blair scribbling on one document: “Just return them. This is precisely the point. We must not allow the ECHR to stop us dealing with it.”..
There seems to be something really weird in the British (or is it the Home Office?) psyche here.
Just return them is fine. Assuming you know where they have come from, and can assure their safety. Which we often can’t.
Another Boris blunder.
Alastair Campbell proposed legal threat to BBC amid Iraq war coverage row, files reveal
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/dec/29/alastair-campbell-proposed-legal-threat-to-bbc-amid-iraq-war-coverage-row-files-reveal
...“The No 10 press office has lost all credibility as a reliable, truthful, objective operation. Even respectable journalists treat it with caution – part of a relentless politically-dominated spin machine,” he wrote.
“Although we all know this is monstrous ( LOL ), it has become the settled view of the entire British media and political establishment. This is disastrous for the authority of your own office.”..
More Pointless Brexit red tape adding costs for consumers and damaging our economy. The gift that keeps on giving.
Except for the New York civil cases where his personal and corporate wealth bleed away - and the Georgia criminal cases, where he is staying put in the orange jump suit for the rest of his days. As befits somebody who tried very hard to steal an election.
Hmmm...
More seriously, it's a requirement of EU and Council of Europe membership that we honour the ECHR. Now we've left the EU the former doesn't apply, but unless we want to have the same level of personal freedom as Russia or Belarus with their famous vistas through wide open windows, we wouldn't want to get rid of the second.
It is worth pointing out that we don't always, as a country, accept rulings on this point. Votes for prisoners springs to mind. But our governments are obliged to follow their laws and treaty obligations and however exasperating that can be at times the alternative is a great deal worse.
That means we can get a change of government and demolish some of this post-Brexit stupidity. What the Tories never understood is that outside of the EEA the UK is a small market, which makes it deeply unattractive if we set ourselves up where Uk standards are slightly off-set from the EEA ones because thats what 17.4m people voted for.
Shame on those who openly or tacitly support Putin's fascistic, imperialist state.
A bit like those who consider themselves "patriots" who use the symbolism of our (and their) enemy in WWII.
Its insanity and idiocy.
Kind of encouraging if they are, but somehow I doubt it.
Or it would be if that weren't the reality for a lot of less notorious convicts.
https://publichealth.wustl.edu/the-aging-prison-population-a-rapidly-growing-issue/
The Tories will likely lose the election badly. But its also their best chance of avoiding losing the election catastrophically later in the year...
It left because of the [latest] invasion of Ukraine, not because of the fact its a one-party dictatorship which murders or imprisons its political opponents, with no rule of law, or media pluralism.
How about we have the same level of personal freedom as Australia, New Zealand, Canada etc none of which are in this failed institution?
As we saw, rather brutally, on the previous thread.
At least the EU has some virtues.
It hasn't been the 'party of Lincoln' for a very long time now.
Edited - and it's not just the membership, it's the enforcement. That was my point, really.
Ironically of course demographic change means the South is now slowly drifting back towards the Democrats.
I can live for two months on a good compliment.
Its not just Lincoln, but Reagan too, who should be turning in his grave to see what's happened to his party.
The Dixiecrats going to the Republicans happened long before I was born, but within my lifetime the GOP has gone downhill massively straight into the swamp.
Yes both examples relate to housing because they were just the first that came to mind continually talked about by Gove but never quite getting into a Parliamentary Act...
The ECHR can't enforce anything, the Council of Europe didn't even have Putin's Russia sanctioned prior to the latest invasion of Ukraine for being a dictatorship with no rule of law, no media pluralism, no free and fair elections.
The ECHR's rules are only enforced if our own courts enforce them, which rather makes the ECHR as much use as teaching abstinence to teenagers as the sole method of avoiding STDs and teenage pregnancies.
If we leave the ECHR its not the end of the world and will make us like our fellow Common Law nations like Australia, New Zealand and Canada not Putin's Russia or Belarus. There's a very naïve parochialism which seeks to only compare us to European nations, there is a big wide world outside our tiny continent.
I'm sure they'd get Uist to it.
I know that @TheKitchenCabinet is a Trumper and I'm appreciative he is here because it is fascinating and horrifying to watch. Open support for fascism in the supposed bastion of the free world. If Trump makes it onto the ballot and if Trump wins / claims the election and does what he says he will do, we are into uncharted waters.
I cannot see how sane Americans (and that isn't partisan - Republicans are as horrified albeit in smaller numbers) will stand for the republic being abruptly turned into a theocracy. Or that the various military and law enforcement bodies will accept the orders given. America just held on in the 60s when Federal and State officials squared off against each other in the south. Will they be as lucky this time?
During the Cold War, Ultra Tankies used to point out that the USSR constitution and laws were full to the brim with human rights stuff.
Which it was.
One of the things that kept Hong Kong free(ish) for so long after the handover was continuity of the judicial system. Patton did a good job there.
“Keep the coinage and the courts. Let the rabble have the rest.”
(Sorry I couldn't put it all in caps, my keyboard froze.)
And that it was the duty of a Home Sec. to say no to each and every one.
The description of the meeting after the Brighton Bombing - Thatcher said no to a range of measures that ranged from insane to Donald Trump++
The other irritation is this cold I've had since 4th December and seemingly can't shake off.
THEN: Home Office propose a range of policy ideas from the deranged to the totally batshit. Home Secretary says no
NOW: Home Secretary proposes a range of policy ideas from the deranged to the totally batshit. Home Office says no
Look up what confirmation bias means.
I think this Labour shadow cabinet are putting almost all their efforts into the campaign, and being well-advised at that.
It's the governing part that worries me.
The Blair/Rwanda thing is unsurprising in that there was a policy file on the idea.
I will bet that it has been around a long, long time.
The best date for the Conservative Party, considering all of time and in all parts of the country, is May. Boosting turnout will help councillors up next year, running in May will probably save more MPs, more of the unexploded bombs will go off during Labour's term and the long countdown to the next Conservative government will have begun.
The best date for the current Conservative leadership is probably January 2025, certainly as late as they can get away with. If they are going to lose, it's game over for pretty much all ministers and a large chunk of the parliamentary party. Some of them will be opposition frontbenchers, but where's the fun in that? In the last few cycles, the next Conservative PM is probably currently a nobody, possibly not even a parliamentary candidate this time.
Actually, put like that, a really late election means "maximise current enjoyment, any problems can be dumped on the future". And that's very on-brand for the blue team right now.
Look, I was one of the people speculating that Sunak would cling on as long as possible, so it surprised me when he pivoted to May. But he *did* pivot. The emergency legislation after the Autumn statement. The early budget with sweeties already being talked up. The hiring of staff.
We are getting a myriad of sources from across Westminster all hearing the same thing - its on. It may well be postponed back to the Autumn. But here and now its clear to practically everyone involved in politics that a May election is the plan.
Perhaps you have a different definition of "on the cards".
https://twitter.com/AhmedBaba_/status/1740364619078885610
Homicide numbers are poised to hit a record decline nationwide. But most Americans think violent crime is on the rise.
There’s a stark disconnect between how a lot of Americans feel and what’s actually happening. Disinformation is distorting our perception of reality...
...More data to add to this point: Crime overall is down year-over-year, including violent crime.
Q3 2023 vs Q3 2022, violent crime dropped 8%, while property crime fell 6.3%—its lowest level since 1961
But 77% of Americans think crime is up over last year.
Going back to @ydoethur comments above, the problem is judicial activism and the expansion of influence that is quite political in nature and goes far beyond the original intentions in creating the court.
Combine improving and perceptible improvements in incomes with some easing of cost of living pressures with some flights to Rwanda or, even better, no flights because of the HoL, and there’s a tale to tell: “things are getting better, we want to do more, don’t let woke Labour ruin it all.” Will it win a GE? Unlikely. Could it stop a Labour majority and keep the Tories in the game? Absolutely.
I think the Tories would be mad to go before the summer. Sunak is bad at politics, but he surely can’t be *that* bad.
The mandarins have been proposing the same thing now for several decades, in response to every terrorist attack, mass-casualty event, or natural disaster. Thankfully, the dozens of ministers who have been in the HO in the last half century, have kept telling them to go swing.
And it's probably better that people see the extra £30 before they realize how little they can get with it.
May 2nd would be the perfect time frame, because come the end of May they'll no longer care...
As we are going to see demonstrated vividly in the next 12 months.
Conservatives are going to be better off selling the sizzle, rather than the cocktail chipolata, when it comes to the economy. That points to announcing something in March, making noise about it in April payslips and hoping it works in May.
There are unlikely to be many improvements in living standards etc over the summer, and plenty of opportunities for the crazies to say and do utterly stupid things and make more trouble.
Alternately, announce a big tax increase disguised as a cut, announce that a further tax cut is weeks away, impose discipline on the crazies because "this is your best chance of survival" and try to build positive momentum. Even the Tory Party can hold it together for a few months. Longer than that? No chance.
I remain convinced that October will be GE month not least because any tax changes in April will not be felt in wage packets by a 2nd May election
Furthermore, if I was Sunak I would ignore the clamour and let labour reveal their manifesto for a Spring election despite accusations he is a bottler
Also October gives him 2 years in post
May I just thank again everyone for their kind wishes since I said my cardiologist phoned to say I need an urgent pacemaker and my primary thoughts are for this to be done in early new year
And give access to everyone (Important People were to have their data on a separate, slavery secure system).
And which gets attached to every U.K. ID card proposal.
And which was just starting implantation when the Coalition cancelled the last attempt at ID cards.
Which would break a host of European data protection requirements, incidentally.
But there is a problem with US media and politicians, which is misinformation. The right-wing media, and right-wing politicians on social media, just lie on an industrial scale. It is exemplified by the Big Lie of (outcome determinative) 2020 electoral fraud, but it goes beyond that.
So naturally it breeds mistrust of national statistics, and creates false panics over children identifying as cats etc.
ID cards would have an impact on the small number of people who come over on boats, but then don’t declare themselves to the authorities and enter the black economy. We don’t know precisely how many such people there are, but, IIRC, government estimates put them in the hundreds per year, so a very small number.
The main area of illegality is overstayers, people who remain in the country after their visas have run out. ID cards might have an impact there. But the Conservatives haven’t spent decades demonising this group, so the PR impact of doing something about them will be limited.
1) the database
2) they were not mandatory to have
3) they were not mandatory to carry
4) if the police did have the powers to charge people for not presenting one they'd not bother because of the time and the paperwork
5) generally people that will be most disadvantaged by the policy can't afford to get one
And the massive database they want to have associated with it is even worse.
We need to accept that the price of that freedom is difficulty enforcing borders etc.
And summer usually lasts all of 6 days.
And the bit that makes little sense is they could have combined it all together without the ID card bit - all you need is to create a standard unique identifier and then attach that identifier to the appropriate records.
The fact they can't do that tells you everything you need to know about the grand idea.
But we do need ID cards to provide a simple means of checking eligibility to work (which is currently a complete nightmare if the person hasn't got a passport). with a passport it's 2 minutes work that the person does themselves, without it's an admin nightmare requiring HR to trust others which often means you skip the person without a passport and just employ the other person who had one.
The reason is that we prize the freedom not to, but that freedom comes at the price of difficulty enforcing borders.
Negativity sells unfortunately, whether it be the Guardian or Fox News doing it.
The media loves to ramp everything up to eleven, whether it be migrants or climate change, woke or reactionary etc that is the target of its attacks.
Switzerland does well at controlling its borders and has only a voluntary ID card system, its border enforcement has nothing to do with those cards.