On topic I do not see anyone successfully demonising Starmer, he is just too boring. Against a charismatic or even competent leader he would, I think, be in serious trouble but it looks like we will never know for sure.
He will rapidly run into problems when he becomes PM but, frankly, so would a combination of Lloyd George and Abraham Lincoln. As a nation we have a lot of issues, very few of which have been meaningfully addressed in the last 7 years.
I see Britain has basically decided to replicate the EU’s carbon border adjustment scheme.
This shows the very concrete loss of sovereignty imposed by Brexit.
The good news is that we’re replicating CBAM pretty much identically. In the original Con-doc we seemed to be suggesting a stricter and wider regime, which would have been self defeating. We’re not powerful enough to be stricter than the EU.
I find it bemusing that people still seem to think SKS is actually crap when he's turned a 20 point deficit into a 20 point lead, thrown Corbyn out of the party and re-made the party into a centrist vehicle which it took three previous leaders to do.
Particularly in this political landscape
25% seems to be core Tory support - it may dip for an especially stupid disaster, but rebounds 12% seems to be the LibDems 6% for SNP, PC etc 9% for Ref seems fairly stable at the moment
That’s 52% of the vote that’s not available to any kind of Labour.
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
Welcome back! You have been missed!
You know, I’ve just been too busy to post, how it is when you are just doing so much good in the world, helping people out of, situations they are stuck in and such. Then I thought, online friends are friends too really. I wonder how they all are. Sunil with the trains, Nigel with all things Korean. TSE with more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I am sure Labours poll dip is Gaza war related. Gaza conflict making some on left less enthusiastic to tell pollsters they will vote Labour, with the classic Opinium swingback moving the dial still more, this poll is even better for Labour than some of the other ones. Maybe the war slide has turned the corner and Labours position will start to recover.
I think you're spot on, and that Labour's stance on Gaza has probably lost them 3-5% of support in recent weeks. Anecdotally, quite a lot of younger (in particular, but not just) lefties are disenchanted with Starmer's seemingly unequivocal support for Israel's campaign in Gaza. 100% of my own kids, for example.
I am sure that is right.
Quite why Palestine/Israel is such a touchstone issue when we as a nation have zero influence on the conflict is bizarre, and not entirely due to anti-semitism.
I’m sure it’s true, as hasn’t Biden’s polling been hit in the identical time period to Labours? That would suggest it’s not entirely UK politics related. And quite why so many choose to ignore the horrendous terrorist racist driven attack on Isreal and only have anger for the Israeli response is baffling to me too.
Is it true the three Israeli hostages were actually free from captors, shirtless and walking under a white flag when the IDF killed them? And was it this incident that has caused Cameron and the UK government to step away from their level of support to the Israeli government?
I think the Tory ratings have dropped from their support for the war too. Maybe specific polling and focus groups has made them worry about this.
I doubt Tory VI has been affected by the war. This is one where their supporters don’t care hugely, but if pushed would side with the Tory position.
I expected to see more of a Green bounce. Admittedly they’re up in Opinium but generally they’ve been flat. Without the Green bounce it’s hard to conclude Labour support has been dented by Gaza.
Rather I think there’s a plague on both houses sentiment out there and that’s benefiting Lib Dems and Reform.
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
Welcome back! You have been missed!
You know, I’ve just been too busy to post, how it is when you are just doing so much good in the world, helping people out of, situations they are stuck in and such. Then I thought, online friends are friends too really. I wonder how they all are. Sunil with the trains, Nigel with all things Korean. TSE with more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I am sure Labours poll dip is Gaza war related. Gaza conflict making some on left less enthusiastic to tell pollsters they will vote Labour, with the classic Opinium swingback moving the dial still more, this poll is even better for Labour than some of the other ones. Maybe the war slide has turned the corner and Labours position will start to recover.
I think you're spot on, and that Labour's stance on Gaza has probably lost them 3-5% of support in recent weeks. Anecdotally, quite a lot of younger (in particular, but not just) lefties are disenchanted with Starmer's seemingly unequivocal support for Israel's campaign in Gaza. 100% of my own kids, for example.
I am sure that is right.
Quite why Palestine/Israel is such a touchstone issue when we as a nation have zero influence on the conflict is bizarre, and not entirely due to anti-semitism.
It's partly due to media. Everyone has a Middle-East Correspondent so there's plenty of copy to keep them busy. In Borneo or New Guinea tribes still eat each other for breakfast, lunch and dinner but the BBC hasn't sent a film crew there for our delectation ... or maybe they haven't come back yet. In neither case can we do much about it.
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
Welcome back! You have been missed!
You know, I’ve just been too busy to post, how it is when you are just doing so much good in the world, helping people out of, situations they are stuck in and such. Then I thought, online friends are friends too really. I wonder how they all are. Sunil with the trains, Nigel with all things Korean. TSE with more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I am sure Labours poll dip is Gaza war related. Gaza conflict making some on left less enthusiastic to tell pollsters they will vote Labour, with the classic Opinium swingback moving the dial still more, this poll is even better for Labour than some of the other ones. Maybe the war slide has turned the corner and Labours position will start to recover.
I think you're spot on, and that Labour's stance on Gaza has probably lost them 3-5% of support in recent weeks. Anecdotally, quite a lot of younger (in particular, but not just) lefties are disenchanted with Starmer's seemingly unequivocal support for Israel's campaign in Gaza. 100% of my own kids, for example.
I am sure that is right.
Quite why Palestine/Israel is such a touchstone issue when we as a nation have zero influence on the conflict is bizarre, and not entirely due to anti-semitism.
It's partly due to media. Everyone has a Middle-East Correspondent so there's plenty of copy to keep them busy. In Borneo or New Guinea tribes still eat each other for breakfast, lunch and dinner but the BBC hasn't sent a film crew there for our delectation ... or maybe they haven't come back yet. In neither case can we do much about it.
Hmmm - perhaps we could send Piers Morgan and Piers Corbyn to Papua New Guinea to report on that?
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
That will be the Wet House, as one of the five houses, the one David Cameron is King of. At least two of the five Tory Houses are madhouses.
Great move from David Cameron today. What I would like to see next is less unwavering support for the Two State solution, from UK, European and US politicians.
The Israeli Ambassador to UK merely stated the position of Netanyahu’s government this week. As they have done so well out of the status quo the last two dozen years - taking more of the West Bank instead of surrendering it - then why not? But it’s also clear to me, so many on the Palestinian side care not for the Two State solution as well right now.
When Sunak, Starmer, and their delegates swear blind faith to the two state solution, what are they actually saying, do they know?
It’s partition. And good idea to partition asap before Isreal can control even more area’s.
But where can you draw the line today where both sides in the dispute see the result as just, and are charitable to making the deal work, so ending the cycle for pauses where things fester, and times of such violence, cruelty and horror?
Having researched the current Palestinians, and talked about the issue as it is today in Church groups, I personally see it as not two, but at least three or four State Solution, with other areas, like so much of the West Bank where daily lives of Arab and Jew and Christian still so entwined, really should not fall under jurisdiction of any state, if we really want a solution to be seen as just and have everyone’s charitable intent to make it work.
Do you see my point, Politicians, journalists and academics who stand by the two state solution I think only do so because they are out of touch, and incapable of the creative, imaginative thinking necessary to actually solve issues like this one.
Labour lead sits at 13 points. • Labour 40% (-3) • Conservatives 27% (+1) • Lib Dems 11% (n/c) • Reform 9% (n/c) • Greens 7% (+1) • SNP 3% (n/c)
I have rearranged the poll in descending order. Quite why Reform, in 4th place, were listed last, and the SNP, in last place, were listed 4th, I have absolutely no idea!
Evening all! Glad to see that an old friend has stopped horsing around and has regenerated.
Talking about horsing around, I get the distinct impression that the bile and opprobrium from the handful of PB Tories is because they know that the public have seen behind the curtain and they have had enough of the man pulling the levers.
It doesn't matter what they think about Starmer. About how shifty his positions may be. About that slightly smug way he goes about skewering Tory idiocy. People have stopped listening to them. The deal is done - the only question is how hard the pubishment beating.
And *that* is why isam et al are so upset. Powerless. Ignored. Inert.
The deal is done, that is true. Or at least that's the way it appears to us all right now.
The devout Tories are either thrashing about in a vain attempt to shift the dial or confidently predicting how utterly shite Labour will be once they get into office.
I can't really blame them, what else can a true-Tory believer do?
Some of the dial-shifting attempts are laughable though: Starmer = François Hollande? Well that's going to really sway votes. Captain Hindsight? Hardly new and hardly effective to date. ULEZ? Sunk without trace, predictably.
I'd say 'must try harder' but really, it's futile.
You forgot the proposition that SKS is somehow sleazy or sleaze-prone. Perhaps it now makes sense why currygate has such central position in the worldview of Tory paranoia.
Constant reminders that SKS likes a beer and curry will have a devastating impact on his ratings.
Tory focus groups are comprised of people who like a small sherry and afternoon tea, and think beer is common and curry is foreign, unfortunately for them and unlike the majority of voters.
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
Welcome back! You have been missed!
You know, I’ve just been too busy to post, how it is when you are just doing so much good in the world, helping people out of, situations they are stuck in and such. Then I thought, online friends are friends too really. I wonder how they all are. Sunil with the trains, Nigel with all things Korean. TSE with more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I am sure Labours poll dip is Gaza war related. Gaza conflict making some on left less enthusiastic to tell pollsters they will vote Labour, with the classic Opinium swingback moving the dial still more, this poll is even better for Labour than some of the other ones. Maybe the war slide has turned the corner and Labours position will start to recover.
I think you're spot on, and that Labour's stance on Gaza has probably lost them 3-5% of support in recent weeks. Anecdotally, quite a lot of younger (in particular, but not just) lefties are disenchanted with Starmer's seemingly unequivocal support for Israel's campaign in Gaza. 100% of my own kids, for example.
I am sure that is right.
Quite why Palestine/Israel is such a touchstone issue when we as a nation have zero influence on the conflict is bizarre, and not entirely due to anti-semitism.
I’m sure it’s true, as hasn’t Biden’s polling been hit in the identical time period to Labours? That would suggest it’s not entirely UK politics related. And quite why so many choose to ignore the horrendous terrorist racist driven attack on Isreal and only have anger for the Israeli response is baffling to me too.
Is it true the three Israeli hostages were actually free from captors, shirtless and walking under a white flag when the IDF killed them? And was it this incident that has caused Cameron and the UK government to step away from their level of support to the Israeli government?
I think the Tory ratings have dropped from their support for the war too. Maybe specific polling and focus groups has made them worry about this.
I doubt Tory VI has been affected by the war. This is one where their supporters don’t care hugely, but if pushed would side with the Tory position.
I expected to see more of a Green bounce. Admittedly they’re up in Opinium but generally they’ve been flat. Without the Green bounce it’s hard to conclude Labour support has been dented by Gaza.
Rather I think there’s a plague on both houses sentiment out there and that’s benefiting Lib Dems and Reform.
Unlike the Government and Opposition, and many on PB, the majority of British people are neither anti-semitic or pro-semitic, but see Israel and Palestine as a conflict irrelevant to their daily lives. However, sense of fairness means that they were pro Israel after October 7, but are leaning towards Palestine as they see more atrocities being committed by Israeli forces.
On topic: Going negative on Starmer is probably the best thing the Tories can do as he is clearly a drag on Labours poll rating.
On the IPSOS leadership tracker he seems to be about as popular as LOTO's Kinnock, Hague and Howard (granted he isn't in the pit of hell with Foot, IDS and Corbyn but he's also no where near as popular a LOTO as Blair or Cameron.
Only snag for the Tories is what while there isn't and never has been any love for Starmer, their leader is doing much worse.
In the end I suspect attacking SKS personally will have some cut through and may add a couple of % on to the Tory lead in the election campaign.
Israel has every right to destroy Hamas but the words from Israel in the last few days have been an utter disgrace and I am losing any confidence they want a two-state solution at all.
...Quite why Reform, in 4th place, were listed last, and the SNP, in last place, were listed 4th, I have absolutely no idea!
Order of predicted seats? SNP will probably get more seats than Reform, being more focussed. Although I, like you, would prefer descending order of predicted vote.
A negative campaign against Starmer isn't going to work as well as it did against Corbyn or Ed Miliband as a negative campaign against Blair didn't work as well as against Kinnock for the Tories. However, doesn't mean they won't try.
Marrying the daughter of a billionaire at least ensures the Sunaks are secure financially I suppose whatever the election result
"Hostile states will ‘drive’ migrants to UK and destabilise the West, warns Sunak PM says lack of action against illegal crossings would lead to growing numbers that will ‘overwhelm our countries’"
A negative campaign against Starmer isn't going to work as well as it did against Corbyn or Ed Miliband as a negative campaign against Blair didn't work as well as against Kinnock for the Tories. However, doesn't mean they won't try.
Marrying the daughter of a billionaire at least ensures the Sunaks are secure financially I suppose whatever the election result
Well, there is that at least. If things go to absolute sh*t, in the very worst case - Rishi is fine.
I may as well pre-book my X in the Conservative Party box now.
A negative campaign against Starmer isn't going to work as well as it did against Corbyn or Ed Miliband as a negative campaign against Blair didn't work as well as against Kinnock for the Tories. However, doesn't mean they won't try.
Marrying the daughter of a billionaire at least ensures the Sunaks are secure financially I suppose whatever the election result
On the IPSOS tracker Starmer is no where near as popular a LOTO as Blair (or Cameron) He is actually pretty close to Miliband (as well as Kinnock, Hague and Howard)
He isn't in the depths with Foot, Corbyn and IDS at the end but he's pretty unpopular for a LOTO and always has been. Where he is on the tracker is historically where LOTO's have been before going on to lose the following election. But. The problem for the Tories is that Sunank is more unpopular.
Going negative on SKS will probably work for Con to some degree but not by much as Sunak is much more unpopular.
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
October revealed (or rather unleashed) a very deadly situation right now. I can quite understand how they might regard dealing with that severely now to be necessary, even if it they were aware that it will indeed see even more people there be supportive of Hamas long term. The urgency of reducing martial capacity for their immediate security.
As for the last point, the conflict already seemed pretty intractable. There's wider instability now, but is the change for Israel one of degree only?
Is it the right choice? Fuck if I know, but with an enemy who they know wants to commit further attacks and already had plenty of support it is easy to see how Israel would calculate an increase in that support but less immediate opportunity to act on it would still be a net win, at the cost of constant vigilance, which they already thought they were doing.
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
October revealed (or rather unleashed) a very deadly situation right now. I can quite understand how they might regard dealing with that severely now to be necessary, even if it they were aware that it will indeed see even more people there be supportive of Hamas long term. The urgency of reducing martial capacity for their immediate security.
As for the last point, the conflict already seemed pretty intractable. There's wider instability now, but is the change for Israel one of degree only?
Is it the right choice? Fuck if I know, but with an enemy who they know wants to commit further attacks and already had plenty of support it is easy to see how Israel would calculate an increase in that support but less immediate opportunity to act on it would still be a net win, at the cost of constant vigilance, which they already thought they were doing.
A negative campaign against Starmer isn't going to work as well as it did against Corbyn or Ed Miliband as a negative campaign against Blair didn't work as well as against Kinnock for the Tories. However, doesn't mean they won't try.
With Ed M the Tories had a confused message about him being weak, but briefly also that he was dangerous. In didn't really matter in the end because of the LD collapse, and worked well enough in those circumstances. With Corbyn Labour had polled so badly up to 2017 that it seems like the Tory attacks on him as essentially a loon did not work, especially as his general impression is that of a mild mannered reasonable grandpa. By the time of 2019 the hits landed, thanks to additional 2 years of Labour infighting, more focus on his foreign policy idiocy and his at best ambiguous approach to anti-semitism, and the Boris Brexit factor firing up the Tory base to take advantage.
With Starmer I don't think it's a matter of whether he is boring, not exactly. But a 60 year old establishment lawyer just is not going to be easy to paint as a radical no matter how much they put up posters of him next to Corbyn, not with Corbyn pretty much neutralised as an issue by personally seeing to his exclusion.
That leaves painting him as the risky option, even dangerous. There again they have issues that Labour's financial plans could well be nonsense, but the government has either through poor management or poor luch overseen a pretty crappy economic situation, and absent the risk of Brexit being taken away, how are they going to sell the risky, dangerous attack either?
Evolutionary psychology, based on the ideas of Charles Darwin, has lost the academic race to the Standard Social Sciences Model, which focuses on social and cultural influences rather than evolved motives. https://researchsquare.com/article/rs-3569018/v2"
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
October revealed (or rather unleashed) a very deadly situation right now. I can quite understand how they might regard dealing with that severely now to be necessary, even if it they were aware that it will indeed see even more people there be supportive of Hamas long term. The urgency of reducing martial capacity for their immediate security.
As for the last point, the conflict already seemed pretty intractable. There's wider instability now, but is the change for Israel one of degree only?
Is it the right choice? Fuck if I know, but with an enemy who they know wants to commit further attacks and already had plenty of support it is easy to see how Israel would calculate an increase in that support but less immediate opportunity to act on it would still be a net win, at the cost of constant vigilance, which they already thought they were doing.
Test:
I know you love to post images Sunil, but it would occasionally be good if you added commentary to them as well to know if you are responding to a specific part or whole, or have something to say about a specific part. Not every point is so simplistic it can be responded to with a trite phrase, graphic, or meme.
This is a great case in point, since agree with what I wrote or not about how the Israeli state may be assessing its options, simply posting death ratios doesn't speak to that point one way or another, because the whole point was that Israel's current actions could be considered by some to be disproportionate, excessive, or self-harming, but it might still conclude it to be better than the alternatives in terms of securing immediate safety (and indeed, many may agree with them on that too). And that can help us understand their motivations and actions, if my guess is in any way accurate.
Sunday’s Telegraph and Mail do have Sunak using Reform/Braverman language ie the illegal boat crossings will overwhelm us.
I’m with all the people on PB who thinks it’s an error to keep flagging up problems you are not effectively dealing with. It’s too easy for voters to do the math: if illegal boat crossings will overwhelm us, and that’s a fraction of Sunak’s legal migration mess of Tories own making, keeping this government in will overwhelm us in legal migration much sooner than the illegal migration will.
The problem in getting voters back from Reform isn’t the rhetoric or policy, the problem is these voters have grown tired of being let down by “migration in the tens of thousands” type promises not being delivered on, they don’t mind if someone else has a go. How many years of “immigration down into tens of thousands” type promises does it take, before a voter knows they’ve been had? These voters are walking because they see the Tories as divided, useless at delivering on promises, the leader as out of touch rich twit, and don’t fear a Starmer government. Harder rhetoric and a couple of half filled cherry picked token Rwanda flights will just remind voters they are being gas lit by this government.
However, whilst Reform/Braverman rhetoric and policy won’t get these voters back to the Tories anytime soon, that rhetoric and policy can certainly cost the Tories huge swaves of the centre ground vote they have had installing MPs for them, since 2010 and 2015 elections.
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
Welcome back! You have been missed!
You know, I’ve just been too busy to post, how it is when you are just doing so much good in the world, helping people out of, situations they are stuck in and such. Then I thought, online friends are friends too really. I wonder how they all are. Sunil with the trains, Nigel with all things Korean. TSE with more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I am sure Labours poll dip is Gaza war related. Gaza conflict making some on left less enthusiastic to tell pollsters they will vote Labour, with the classic Opinium swingback moving the dial still more, this poll is even better for Labour than some of the other ones. Maybe the war slide has turned the corner and Labours position will start to recover.
I think you're spot on, and that Labour's stance on Gaza has probably lost them 3-5% of support in recent weeks. Anecdotally, quite a lot of younger (in particular, but not just) lefties are disenchanted with Starmer's seemingly unequivocal support for Israel's campaign in Gaza. 100% of my own kids, for example.
I am sure that is right.
Quite why Palestine/Israel is such a touchstone issue when we as a nation have zero influence on the conflict is bizarre, and not entirely due to anti-semitism.
I’m sure it’s true, as hasn’t Biden’s polling been hit in the identical time period to Labours? That would suggest it’s not entirely UK politics related. And quite why so many choose to ignore the horrendous terrorist racist driven attack on Isreal and only have anger for the Israeli response is baffling to me too.
Is it true the three Israeli hostages were actually free from captors, shirtless and walking under a white flag when the IDF killed them? And was it this incident that has caused Cameron and the UK government to step away from their level of support to the Israeli government?
I think the Tory ratings have dropped from their support for the war too. Maybe specific polling and focus groups has made them worry about this.
I doubt Tory VI has been affected by the war. This is one where their supporters don’t care hugely, but if pushed would side with the Tory position.
I expected to see more of a Green bounce. Admittedly they’re up in Opinium but generally they’ve been flat. Without the Green bounce it’s hard to conclude Labour support has been dented by Gaza.
Rather I think there’s a plague on both houses sentiment out there and that’s benefiting Lib Dems and Reform.
Unlike the Government and Opposition, and many on PB, the majority of British people are neither anti-semitic or pro-semitic, but see Israel and Palestine as a conflict irrelevant to their daily lives. However, sense of fairness means that they were pro Israel after October 7, but are leaning towards Palestine as they see more atrocities being committed by Israeli forces.
It has always been the case I think that Palestine invokes a lot of sympathy, and that is perfectly natural. I count myself in that, because the broad mass of Palestinians are the ones without power and agency in the situation well before October 7th, and even their ostensible allies tend to treat them like shit, so even though the Israeli's were always right to be fearful and defensive given their geopolitical situation, their relative strength means they will face more scrutiny for their actions and have a greater expectancy not to abuse that. They are often very frustrated by that, suggesting people barely condemn attacks on them, but condemn any reaction.
But recent months have seen a lot of people cross way over any kind of sympathy line or simply imploring the Israelis from undertaking excessive or collective punitive action. When people did and do outright celebrate what happened on October 7th, when their antisemitism leads them to carry signs calling for genocide or rip down posters of kidnapped children, we are beyond that.
I recall Oz Katerji, the British-Lebanese war correspondent and big supporter of Palestinian statehood, making that point very vigorously, in being against atrocities committed by either side, whereas plenty of people justify their own.
It's not a majority of those calling for the Israeli's to temper their understandable rage doing that, but it is not some inconsequential minority either.
Yes but Keir Starmer also kicked him out of the party. Rishi partied with BoJo
Correction, kicked him out of the parliamentary party. But preventing Corbyn standing as a Labour MP amounts to much the same thing. I genuinely never thought he would maintain the group exclusion as much as he has.
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
Welcome back! You have been missed!
You know, I’ve just been too busy to post, how it is when you are just doing so much good in the world, helping people out of, situations they are stuck in and such. Then I thought, online friends are friends too really. I wonder how they all are. Sunil with the trains, Nigel with all things Korean. TSE with more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I am sure Labours poll dip is Gaza war related. Gaza conflict making some on left less enthusiastic to tell pollsters they will vote Labour, with the classic Opinium swingback moving the dial still more, this poll is even better for Labour than some of the other ones. Maybe the war slide has turned the corner and Labours position will start to recover.
I think you're spot on, and that Labour's stance on Gaza has probably lost them 3-5% of support in recent weeks. Anecdotally, quite a lot of younger (in particular, but not just) lefties are disenchanted with Starmer's seemingly unequivocal support for Israel's campaign in Gaza. 100% of my own kids, for example.
I am sure that is right.
Quite why Palestine/Israel is such a touchstone issue when we as a nation have zero influence on the conflict is bizarre, and not entirely due to anti-semitism.
I’m sure it’s true, as hasn’t Biden’s polling been hit in the identical time period to Labours? That would suggest it’s not entirely UK politics related. And quite why so many choose to ignore the horrendous terrorist racist driven attack on Isreal and only have anger for the Israeli response is baffling to me too.
Is it true the three Israeli hostages were actually free from captors, shirtless and walking under a white flag when the IDF killed them? And was it this incident that has caused Cameron and the UK government to step away from their level of support to the Israeli government?
I think the Tory ratings have dropped from their support for the war too. Maybe specific polling and focus groups has made them worry about this.
I doubt Tory VI has been affected by the war. This is one where their supporters don’t care hugely, but if pushed would side with the Tory position.
I expected to see more of a Green bounce. Admittedly they’re up in Opinium but generally they’ve been flat. Without the Green bounce it’s hard to conclude Labour support has been dented by Gaza.
Rather I think there’s a plague on both houses sentiment out there and that’s benefiting Lib Dems and Reform.
I do share your doubts Tim. But then both Tory and Labour and Biden polling started failing not just at the same time as each other, but it was same moment our news was dominated by IDF bombing killing, maiming and displacing so many Gazans.
Do voters disappearing from one column have to show up in another? Are there signs don’t know or won’t say have taken a rise?
Joe Walsh @WalshFreedom · Dec 15 He’s the only sitting President in American history who lost an election and refused to concede and refused to participate in the peaceful transfer of power.
Don’t you dare tell me he won’t try to be dictator if he’s reelected. Don’t fucking tell me he’s not serious about that.
Joe Walsh @WalshFreedom · Dec 15 He’s the only sitting President in American history who lost an election and refused to concede and refused to participate in the peaceful transfer of power.
Don’t you dare tell me he won’t try to be dictator if he’s reelected. Don’t fucking tell me he’s not serious about that.
These people would probably consider attempting to implement the policies he's elected on as trying to be a dictator.
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
Welcome back! You have been missed!
You know, I’ve just been too busy to post, how it is when you are just doing so much good in the world, helping people out of, situations they are stuck in and such. Then I thought, online friends are friends too really. I wonder how they all are. Sunil with the trains, Nigel with all things Korean. TSE with more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I am sure Labours poll dip is Gaza war related. Gaza conflict making some on left less enthusiastic to tell pollsters they will vote Labour, with the classic Opinium swingback moving the dial still more, this poll is even better for Labour than some of the other ones. Maybe the war slide has turned the corner and Labours position will start to recover.
I think you're spot on, and that Labour's stance on Gaza has probably lost them 3-5% of support in recent weeks. Anecdotally, quite a lot of younger (in particular, but not just) lefties are disenchanted with Starmer's seemingly unequivocal support for Israel's campaign in Gaza. 100% of my own kids, for example.
I am sure that is right.
Quite why Palestine/Israel is such a touchstone issue when we as a nation have zero influence on the conflict is bizarre, and not entirely due to anti-semitism.
I’m sure it’s true, as hasn’t Biden’s polling been hit in the identical time period to Labours? That would suggest it’s not entirely UK politics related. And quite why so many choose to ignore the horrendous terrorist racist driven attack on Isreal and only have anger for the Israeli response is baffling to me too.
Is it true the three Israeli hostages were actually free from captors, shirtless and walking under a white flag when the IDF killed them? And was it this incident that has caused Cameron and the UK government to step away from their level of support to the Israeli government?
I think the Tory ratings have dropped from their support for the war too. Maybe specific polling and focus groups has made them worry about this.
I doubt Tory VI has been affected by the war. This is one where their supporters don’t care hugely, but if pushed would side with the Tory position.
I expected to see more of a Green bounce. Admittedly they’re up in Opinium but generally they’ve been flat. Without the Green bounce it’s hard to conclude Labour support has been dented by Gaza.
Rather I think there’s a plague on both houses sentiment out there and that’s benefiting Lib Dems and Reform.
Unlike the Government and Opposition, and many on PB, the majority of British people are neither anti-semitic or pro-semitic, but see Israel and Palestine as a conflict irrelevant to their daily lives. However, sense of fairness means that they were pro Israel after October 7, but are leaning towards Palestine as they see more atrocities being committed by Israeli forces.
It has always been the case I think that Palestine invokes a lot of sympathy, and that is perfectly natural. I count myself in that, because the broad mass of Palestinians are the ones without power and agency in the situation well before October 7th, and even their ostensible allies tend to treat them like shit, so even though the Israeli's were always right to be fearful and defensive given their geopolitical situation, their relative strength means
But recent months have seen a lot of people cross way over any kind of sympathy line or simply imploring the Israelis from undertaking excessive or collective punitive action. When people did and do outright celebrate what happened on October 7th, when their antisemitism leads them to carry signs calling for genocide or rip down posters of kidnapped children, we are beyond that.
I recall Oz Katerji, the British-Lebanese war correspondent and big supporter of Palestinian statehood, making that point very vigorously, in being against atrocities committed by either side, whereas plenty of people justify their own.
It's not a majority of those calling for the Israeli's to temper their understandable rage doing that, but it is not some inconsequential minority either.
I understood, the Conservative Party have tended to be more pro Arab than pro Israeli down the years. Do I have this wrong?
Joe Walsh @WalshFreedom · Dec 15 He’s the only sitting President in American history who lost an election and refused to concede and refused to participate in the peaceful transfer of power.
Don’t you dare tell me he won’t try to be dictator if he’s reelected. Don’t fucking tell me he’s not serious about that.
It should have been a wake up call for many 'conservatives'. Somehow, seemingly cowed by him simply being a bully, they've instead embraced an attempt to overthrow the democracy and made a virtue of never accepting defeat.
Some of them know it's crazy, right back to the first primaries he made clear if he lost he'd call it rigged, but even those who acknowledge that and gently criticise him (not by name, usually), almost all still back him.
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
Welcome back! You have been missed!
You know, I’ve just been too busy to post, how it is when you are just doing so much good in the world, helping people out of, situations they are stuck in and such. Then I thought, online friends are friends too really. I wonder how they all are. Sunil with the trains, Nigel with all things Korean. TSE with more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I am sure Labours poll dip is Gaza war related. Gaza conflict making some on left less enthusiastic to tell pollsters they will vote Labour, with the classic Opinium swingback moving the dial still more, this poll is even better for Labour than some of the other ones. Maybe the war slide has turned the corner and Labours position will start to recover.
I think you're spot on, and that Labour's stance on Gaza has probably lost them 3-5% of support in recent weeks. Anecdotally, quite a lot of younger (in particular, but not just) lefties are disenchanted with Starmer's seemingly unequivocal support for Israel's campaign in Gaza. 100% of my own kids, for example.
I am sure that is right.
Quite why Palestine/Israel is such a touchstone issue when we as a nation have zero influence on the conflict is bizarre, and not entirely due to anti-semitism.
I’m sure it’s true, as hasn’t Biden’s polling been hit in the identical time period to Labours? That would suggest it’s not entirely UK politics related. And quite why so many choose to ignore the horrendous terrorist racist driven attack on Isreal and only have anger for the Israeli response is baffling to me too.
Is it true the three Israeli hostages were actually free from captors, shirtless and walking under a white flag when the IDF killed them? And was it this incident that has caused Cameron and the UK government to step away from their level of support to the Israeli government?
I think the Tory ratings have dropped from their support for the war too. Maybe specific polling and focus groups has made them worry about this.
I doubt Tory VI has been affected by the war. This is one where their supporters don’t care hugely, but if pushed would side with the Tory position.
I expected to see more of a Green bounce. Admittedly they’re up in Opinium but generally they’ve been flat. Without the Green bounce it’s hard to conclude Labour support has been dented by Gaza.
Rather I think there’s a plague on both houses sentiment out there and that’s benefiting Lib Dems and Reform.
Unlike the Government and Opposition, and many on PB, the majority of British people are neither anti-semitic or pro-semitic, but see Israel and Palestine as a conflict irrelevant to their daily lives. However, sense of fairness means that they were pro Israel after October 7, but are leaning towards Palestine as they see more atrocities being committed by Israeli forces.
It has always been the case I think that Palestine invokes a lot of sympathy, and that is perfectly natural. I count myself in that, because the broad mass of Palestinians are the ones without power and agency in the situation well before October 7th, and even their ostensible allies tend to treat them like shit, so even though the Israeli's were always right to be fearful and defensive given their geopolitical situation, their relative strength means
But recent months have seen a lot of people cross way over any kind of sympathy line or simply imploring the Israelis from undertaking excessive or collective punitive action. When people did and do outright celebrate what happened on October 7th, when their antisemitism leads them to carry signs calling for genocide or rip down posters of kidnapped children, we are beyond that.
I recall Oz Katerji, the British-Lebanese war correspondent and big supporter of Palestinian statehood, making that point very vigorously, in being against atrocities committed by either side, whereas plenty of people justify their own.
It's not a majority of those calling for the Israeli's to temper their understandable rage doing that, but it is not some inconsequential minority either.
I understood, the Conservative Party have tended to be more pro Arab than pro Israeli down the years. Do I have this wrong?
Sunday’s Telegraph and Mail do have Sunak using Reform/Braverman language ie the illegal boat crossings will overwhelm us.
I’m with all the people on PB who thinks it’s an error to keep flagging up problems you are not effectively dealing with. It’s too easy for voters to do the math: if illegal boat crossings will overwhelm us, and that’s a fraction of Sunak’s legal migration mess of Tories own making, keeping this government in will overwhelm us in legal migration much sooner than the illegal migration will.
The problem in getting voters back from Reform isn’t the rhetoric or policy, the problem is these voters have grown tired of being let down by “migration in the tens of thousands” type promises not being delivered on, they don’t mind if someone else has a go. How many years of “immigration down into tens of thousands” type promises does it take, before a voter knows they’ve been had? These voters are walking because they see the Tories as divided, useless at delivering on promises, the leader as out of touch rich twit, and don’t fear a Starmer government. Harder rhetoric and a couple of half filled cherry picked token Rwanda flights will just remind voters they are being gas lit by this government.
However, whilst Reform/Braverman rhetoric and policy won’t get these voters back to the Tories anytime soon, that rhetoric and policy can certainly cost the Tories huge swaves of the centre ground vote they have had installing MPs for them, since 2010 and 2015 elections.
The bit in bold is very much the key.
I can understand if a calculation has been made that there are more votes open on the right than the centre, even if the centre ground is a greater proportion of the population, as that vote might already be mostly gone.
But if that is the calculation you still need to deliver for those on the right, and you also need to consistently target them, whereas the government seems all over the place, given the Braverman stuff and Cameron return etc.
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
What was Hamas achieving on 7/10 other than the murder of 1200 innocent Jews?
859 innocents:
That's a disgusting view. I know we disagree on this topic, but I'm shocked to see you say that.
It is offensive but is also the view taken the other way round: Hamas are fair game; non-Hamas Gazans are collateral damage or innocent victims. It is also the view taken during the NI troubles.
Negative campaigning is what David Cameron does. It usually doesn't work, and the polls suggest this time will be no different. It shows Rishi's complete lack of political nous that he will go along with it.
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
Welcome back! You have been missed!
You know, I’ve just been too busy to post, how it is when you are just doing so much good in the world, helping people out of, situations they are stuck in and such. Then I thought, online friends are friends too really. I wonder how they all are. Sunil with the trains, Nigel with all things Korean. TSE with more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I am sure Labours poll dip is Gaza war related. Gaza conflict making some on left less enthusiastic to tell pollsters they will vote Labour, with the classic Opinium swingback moving the dial still more, this poll is even better for Labour than some of the other ones. Maybe the war slide has turned the corner and Labours position will start to recover.
I think you're spot on, and that Labour's stance on Gaza has probably lost them 3-5% of support in recent weeks. Anecdotally, quite a lot of younger (in particular, but not just) lefties are disenchanted with Starmer's seemingly unequivocal support for Israel's campaign in Gaza. 100% of my own kids, for example.
I am sure that is right.
Quite why Palestine/Israel is such a touchstone issue when we as a nation have zero influence on the conflict is bizarre, and not entirely due to anti-semitism.
I’m sure it’s true, as hasn’t Biden’s polling been hit in the identical time period to Labours? That would suggest it’s not entirely UK politics related. And quite why so many choose to ignore the horrendous terrorist racist driven attack on Isreal and only have anger for the Israeli response is baffling to me too.
Is it true the three Israeli hostages were actually free from captors, shirtless and walking under a white flag when the IDF killed them? And was it this incident that has caused Cameron and the UK government to step away from their level of support to the Israeli government?
I think the Tory ratings have dropped from their support for the war too. Maybe specific polling and focus groups has made them worry about this.
I doubt Tory VI has been affected by the war. This is one where their supporters don’t care hugely, but if pushed would side with the Tory position.
I expected to see more of a Green bounce. Admittedly they’re up in Opinium but generally they’ve been flat. Without the Green bounce it’s hard to conclude Labour support has been dented by Gaza.
Rather I think there’s a plague on both houses sentiment out there and that’s benefiting Lib Dems and Reform.
Unlike the Government and Opposition, and many on PB, the majority of British people are neither anti-semitic or pro-semitic, but see Israel and Palestine as a conflict irrelevant to their daily lives. However, sense of fairness means that they were pro Israel after October 7, but are leaning towards Palestine as they see more atrocities being committed by Israeli forces.
It has always been the case I think that Palestine invokes a lot of sympathy, and that is perfectly natural. I count myself in that, because the broad mass of Palestinians are the ones without power and agency in the situation well before October 7th, and even their ostensible allies tend to treat them like shit, so even though the Israeli's were always right to be fearful and defensive given their geopolitical situation, their relative strength means
But recent months have seen a lot of people cross way over any kind of sympathy line or simply imploring the Israelis from undertaking excessive or collective punitive action. When people did and do outright celebrate what happened on October 7th, when their antisemitism leads them to carry signs calling for genocide or rip down posters of kidnapped children, we are beyond that.
I recall Oz Katerji, the British-Lebanese war correspondent and big supporter of Palestinian statehood, making that point very vigorously, in being against atrocities committed by either side, whereas plenty of people justify their own.
It's not a majority of those calling for the Israeli's to temper their understandable rage doing that, but it is not some inconsequential minority either.
I understood, the Conservative Party have tended to be more pro Arab than pro Israeli down the years. Do I have this wrong?
Yes and no. France/UK/Israel conspired together over Suez, but after that things deviated. During the 70s it used to be that for economic and strategic reasons the UK supported the Saudis and the other petrostates, more for realpolitik than morals, and that continued under Thatcher: to put it simply, the Saudis had oil, weren't in the Soviet sphere, and could always be relied upon to buy our warplanes. Israel was always liked and dealt with cordially, but no great *overt* efforts were made to help, and having reached a good defence capability thru American help and its own ingenuity, Israel didn't need much help.
But over the last decade the Conservative party changed. It moved from a hard-headed assessment of Israel and the Arabs based on what we could do, to a more sentimental one based on Israel-as-narrative instead of the concrete state. This cumulated in Sunak telling Israel that UK was on Israel's side and hoped it'd win, whilst providing nothing but gestures ("We sent a hospital ship!" Well, that's nice).
This feeds into a thing in my head that says the Conservative party has become voluntarily stupid. A combination of Johnson's purge, reliance on phones for data, and Sunak's conspiracy theorism lines up with its comfort with the Meloni/Modi/Orban crowd (the Supranational Right?). They think gestures are important, Twitter is believable, and "calls for" are meaningful, and tbh I don't see them reading a lot. They don't know what they're doing any more, so whilst they are definitely pro-Israel now, they don't translate that into anything useful.
Joe Walsh @WalshFreedom · Dec 15 He’s the only sitting President in American history who lost an election and refused to concede and refused to participate in the peaceful transfer of power.
Don’t you dare tell me he won’t try to be dictator if he’s reelected. Don’t fucking tell me he’s not serious about that.
Is that the same Joe Walsh that was in The Eagles, one half of the incredible guitar duet in Hotel California?
In this video Simon Le Bon et al look as if they are members of the Freie Deutsche Jugend, the East German equivalent of the Hitler Youth.
I don't think Simon Le Bon was thinking anything further than i) look good and ii) have great hair. "You're about as easy as a nuclear war" was as political as the Durannies got.
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
October revealed (or rather unleashed) a very deadly situation right now. I can quite understand how they might regard dealing with that severely now to be necessary, even if it they were aware that it will indeed see even more people there be supportive of Hamas long term. The urgency of reducing martial capacity for their immediate security.
As for the last point, the conflict already seemed pretty intractable. There's wider instability now, but is the change for Israel one of degree only?
Is it the right choice? Fuck if I know, but with an enemy who they know wants to commit further attacks and already had plenty of support it is easy to see how Israel would calculate an increase in that support but less immediate opportunity to act on it would still be a net win, at the cost of constant vigilance, which they already thought they were doing.
There are 14 million people between the river and the sea - in the land containing Gaza, the West Bank and Israel proper. Of these (roughly), 7 million are Jews and 7 million are Muslim Arabs.
All these people should have the same rights.
They do not currently.
Any long-term solution has to work out how to make sure that everyone gets the same basic rights, including the right to safety from attack, the right to self determination, and the right to elect their own government.
Hamas is not serious about such a solution. Nor, candidly, is the current Israeli government.
And as is so often the case, it is the extremists who offer up the chimera of "protection" who thrive when things are difficult. And every atrocity makes another one more likely, and a lasting peace more difficult.
I understood, the Conservative Party have tended to be more pro Arab than pro Israeli down the years. Do I have this wrong?
The Israelis have also shifted a lot in recent decades with the Israeli left seriously weakened, the settler issue being more powerful (and vociferous) and successful targeting of politicians in UK/US and other nations by Israeli influence, the 2 state solution so championed in the 1990s has effectively been sidelined wih a knock-on for Israeli confidence (and improved relations with Gulf states)..the Arab spring probably helped Israel (look at the mess in Syria) and a general sidelining of Palestinian leaders - Yasser Arafat may not have been successful but he did have a voice on the world stage. All this has meant that the Conservatives have shifted away from a more nuanced position towards the problem to one where Israel is more assertive in its conduct (helped by Hamas's dreadful actions in October)
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
October revealed (or rather unleashed) a very deadly situation right now. I can quite understand how they might regard dealing with that severely now to be necessary, even if it they were aware that it will indeed see even more people there be supportive of Hamas long term. The urgency of reducing martial capacity for their immediate security.
As for the last point, the conflict already seemed pretty intractable. There's wider instability now, but is the change for Israel one of degree only?
Is it the right choice? Fuck if I know, but with an enemy who they know wants to commit further attacks and already had plenty of support it is easy to see how Israel would calculate an increase in that support but less immediate opportunity to act on it would still be a net win, at the cost of constant vigilance, which they already thought they were doing.
There are 14 million people between the river and the sea - in the land containing Gaza, the West Bank and Israel proper. Of these (roughly), 7 million are Jews and 7 million are Muslim Arabs.
All these people should have the same rights.
They do not currently.
Any long-term solution has to work out how to make sure that everyone gets the same basic rights, including the right to safety from attack, the right to self determination, and the right to elect their own government.
Hamas is not serious about such a solution. Nor, candidly, is the current Israeli government.
And as is so often the case, it is the extremists who offer up the chimera of "protection" who thrive when things are difficult. And every atrocity makes another one more likely, and a lasting peace more difficult.
All having the same rights implies a single state or federation, not the famous two-state solution.
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
October revealed (or rather unleashed) a very deadly situation right now. I can quite understand how they might regard dealing with that severely now to be necessary, even if it they were aware that it will indeed see even more people there be supportive of Hamas long term. The urgency of reducing martial capacity for their immediate security.
As for the last point, the conflict already seemed pretty intractable. There's wider instability now, but is the change for Israel one of degree only?
Is it the right choice? Fuck if I know, but with an enemy who they know wants to commit further attacks and already had plenty of support it is easy to see how Israel would calculate an increase in that support but less immediate opportunity to act on it would still be a net win, at the cost of constant vigilance, which they already thought they were doing.
There are 14 million people between the river and the sea - in the land containing Gaza, the West Bank and Israel proper. Of these (roughly), 7 million are Jews and 7 million are Muslim Arabs.
All these people should have the same rights.
They do not currently.
Any long-term solution has to work out how to make sure that everyone gets the same basic rights, including the right to safety from attack, the right to self determination, and the right to elect their own government.
Hamas is not serious about such a solution. Nor, candidly, is the current Israeli government.
And as is so often the case, it is the extremists who offer up the chimera of "protection" who thrive when things are difficult. And every atrocity makes another one more likely, and a lasting peace more difficult.
All having the same rights implies a single state or federation, not the famous two-state solution.
That's a fair point: Brits do not have exactly the same rights as - for example - the Swiss.
But I hope we would agree that if someone is born between the river and the sea to a Jewish mother then they should broadly similar rights to someone born to a Muslim Arab mother?
Personally, I don't really care what solutions is reached, so long as it both protects Jews in the region and Palestinians.
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
October revealed (or rather unleashed) a very deadly situation right now. I can quite understand how they might regard dealing with that severely now to be necessary, even if it they were aware that it will indeed see even more people there be supportive of Hamas long term. The urgency of reducing martial capacity for their immediate security.
As for the last point, the conflict already seemed pretty intractable. There's wider instability now, but is the change for Israel one of degree only?
Is it the right choice? Fuck if I know, but with an enemy who they know wants to commit further attacks and already had plenty of support it is easy to see how Israel would calculate an increase in that support but less immediate opportunity to act on it would still be a net win, at the cost of constant vigilance, which they already thought they were doing.
There are 14 million people between the river and the sea - in the land containing Gaza, the West Bank and Israel proper. Of these (roughly), 7 million are Jews and 7 million are Muslim Arabs.
All these people should have the same rights.
They do not currently.
Any long-term solution has to work out how to make sure that everyone gets the same basic rights, including the right to safety from attack, the right to self determination, and the right to elect their own government.
Hamas is not serious about such a solution. Nor, candidly, is the current Israeli government.
And as is so often the case, it is the extremists who offer up the chimera of "protection" who thrive when things are difficult. And every atrocity makes another one more likely, and a lasting peace more difficult.
All having the same rights implies a single state or federation, not the famous two-state solution.
I believe Bosnia is still one state, despite the atrocities of the 1990s.
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
October revealed (or rather unleashed) a very deadly situation right now. I can quite understand how they might regard dealing with that severely now to be necessary, even if it they were aware that it will indeed see even more people there be supportive of Hamas long term. The urgency of reducing martial capacity for their immediate security.
As for the last point, the conflict already seemed pretty intractable. There's wider instability now, but is the change for Israel one of degree only?
Is it the right choice? Fuck if I know, but with an enemy who they know wants to commit further attacks and already had plenty of support it is easy to see how Israel would calculate an increase in that support but less immediate opportunity to act on it would still be a net win, at the cost of constant vigilance, which they already thought they were doing.
Test:
I know you love to post images Sunil, but it would occasionally be good if you added commentary to them as well to know if you are responding to a specific part or whole, or have something to say about a specific part. Not every point is so simplistic it can be responded to with a trite phrase, graphic, or meme.
This is a great case in point, since agree with what I wrote or not about how the Israeli state may be assessing its options, simply posting death ratios doesn't speak to that point one way or another, because the whole point was that Israel's current actions could be considered by some to be disproportionate, excessive, or self-harming, but it might still conclude it to be better than the alternatives in terms of securing immediate safety (and indeed, many may agree with them on that too). And that can help us understand their motivations and actions, if my guess is in any way accurate.
18,787 divided by 1,401 is roughly THIRTEEN 7/10s.
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
Welcome back! You have been missed!
You know, I’ve just been too busy to post, how it is when you are just doing so much good in the world, helping people out of, situations they are stuck in and such. Then I thought, online friends are friends too really. I wonder how they all are. Sunil with the trains, Nigel with all things Korean. TSE with more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I am sure Labours poll dip is Gaza war related. Gaza conflict making some on left less enthusiastic to tell pollsters they will vote Labour, with the classic Opinium swingback moving the dial still more, this poll is even better for Labour than some of the other ones. Maybe the war slide has turned the corner and Labours position will start to recover.
I think you're spot on, and that Labour's stance on Gaza has probably lost them 3-5% of support in recent weeks. Anecdotally, quite a lot of younger (in particular, but not just) lefties are disenchanted with Starmer's seemingly unequivocal support for Israel's campaign in Gaza. 100% of my own kids, for example.
I am sure that is right.
Quite why Palestine/Israel is such a touchstone issue when we as a nation have zero influence on the conflict is bizarre, and not entirely due to anti-semitism.
It's partly due to media. Everyone has a Middle-East Correspondent so there's plenty of copy to keep them busy. In Borneo or New Guinea tribes still eat each other for breakfast, lunch and dinner but the BBC hasn't sent a film crew there for our delectation ... or maybe they haven't come back yet. In neither case can we do much about it.
Hmmm - perhaps we could send Piers Morgan and Piers Corbyn to Papua New Guinea to report on that?
Gosh, that’s out of order.
Whatever they’ve done, they don’t deserve such a fate.
Nobody deserves to have to put up with Piers Morgan.
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
October revealed (or rather unleashed) a very deadly situation right now. I can quite understand how they might regard dealing with that severely now to be necessary, even if it they were aware that it will indeed see even more people there be supportive of Hamas long term. The urgency of reducing martial capacity for their immediate security.
As for the last point, the conflict already seemed pretty intractable. There's wider instability now, but is the change for Israel one of degree only?
Is it the right choice? Fuck if I know, but with an enemy who they know wants to commit further attacks and already had plenty of support it is easy to see how Israel would calculate an increase in that support but less immediate opportunity to act on it would still be a net win, at the cost of constant vigilance, which they already thought they were doing.
There are 14 million people between the river and the sea - in the land containing Gaza, the West Bank and Israel proper. Of these (roughly), 7 million are Jews and 7 million are Muslim Arabs.
All these people should have the same rights.
They do not currently.
Any long-term solution has to work out how to make sure that everyone gets the same basic rights, including the right to safety from attack, the right to self determination, and the right to elect their own government.
Hamas is not serious about such a solution. Nor, candidly, is the current Israeli government.
And as is so often the case, it is the extremists who offer up the chimera of "protection" who thrive when things are difficult. And every atrocity makes another one more likely, and a lasting peace more difficult.
Israel has every right to destroy Hamas but the words from Israel in the last few days have been an utter disgrace and I am losing any confidence they want a two-state solution at all.
Netanyahu has never wanted a two state solution. He wants the West Bank as part of Israel and Gaza an uninhabited wasteland. He’s taking this opportunity to try and get both.
And also - somebody was asking why the Israelis haven’t stopped even though Hamas must have suffered a hammer blow to its capabilities already. The point above is one reason. However, we should also not forget that the second this conflict finishes, so does Netanyahu‘s political career, and his chances of staying out of prison for the innumerable crimes he has committed.
Ignore international pressure for the moment (as the Israelis always do). The best chance of a ceasefire is if the hostage killings lead some of the saner elements in Netanyahu‘s coalition to withdraw support.
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
October revealed (or rather unleashed) a very deadly situation right now. I can quite understand how they might regard dealing with that severely now to be necessary, even if it they were aware that it will indeed see even more people there be supportive of Hamas long term. The urgency of reducing martial capacity for their immediate security.
As for the last point, the conflict already seemed pretty intractable. There's wider instability now, but is the change for Israel one of degree only?
Is it the right choice? Fuck if I know, but with an enemy who they know wants to commit further attacks and already had plenty of support it is easy to see how Israel would calculate an increase in that support but less immediate opportunity to act on it would still be a net win, at the cost of constant vigilance, which they already thought they were doing.
There are 14 million people between the river and the sea - in the land containing Gaza, the West Bank and Israel proper. Of these (roughly), 7 million are Jews and 7 million are Muslim Arabs.
All these people should have the same rights.
They do not currently.
Any long-term solution has to work out how to make sure that everyone gets the same basic rights, including the right to safety from attack, the right to self determination, and the right to elect their own government.
Hamas is not serious about such a solution. Nor, candidly, is the current Israeli government.
And as is so often the case, it is the extremists who offer up the chimera of "protection" who thrive when things are difficult. And every atrocity makes another one more likely, and a lasting peace more difficult.
All having the same rights implies a single state or federation, not the famous two-state solution.
I believe Bosnia is still one state, despite the atrocities of the 1990s.
Technically yes, in the real world not really. It’s effectively three separate countries with one UN High Commissioner overseeing them.
That’s not a bad Opinium for Labour, before swingback the pollster must have found at least 42% for Labour. With pro government swingback built in, it’s a LLG of 58.
It will also help Labour massively if the Conservatives actually use the term Ceasefire. As in UK government position of calling for one. And Labour can tack towards that. The Statement from David Cameron is excellent, and clever politics to strap it to the German government position so it’s not thought of just a position of one of the Five tory Houses.
Welcome back! You have been missed!
You know, I’ve just been too busy to post, how it is when you are just doing so much good in the world, helping people out of, situations they are stuck in and such. Then I thought, online friends are friends too really. I wonder how they all are. Sunil with the trains, Nigel with all things Korean. TSE with more shoes than Imelda Marcos.
I am sure Labours poll dip is Gaza war related. Gaza conflict making some on left less enthusiastic to tell pollsters they will vote Labour, with the classic Opinium swingback moving the dial still more, this poll is even better for Labour than some of the other ones. Maybe the war slide has turned the corner and Labours position will start to recover.
I think you're spot on, and that Labour's stance on Gaza has probably lost them 3-5% of support in recent weeks. Anecdotally, quite a lot of younger (in particular, but not just) lefties are disenchanted with Starmer's seemingly unequivocal support for Israel's campaign in Gaza. 100% of my own kids, for example.
I am sure that is right.
Quite why Palestine/Israel is such a touchstone issue when we as a nation have zero influence on the conflict is bizarre, and not entirely due to anti-semitism.
1. The Palestinians are seen as the freedom fighters 2. Israel are the Goliath in the David and Goliath story 3. It's human nature to support the battered underdog 4. The Israeli Government and it's spokespeople are extremely unattractive to all except for staunch right-wingers and a limited number of elderly Jews
Mr Sussex v Mirror Group is one of those wonderful court cases where the decision went half one way and half the other, a small amount of damages are sent to the complainant, and there’s several million in split costs that will annoy the hell out of both of them.
Comments
He will rapidly run into problems when he becomes PM but, frankly, so would a combination of Lloyd George and Abraham Lincoln. As a nation we have a lot of issues, very few of which have been meaningfully addressed in the last 7 years.
Kate Ferguson
@kateferguson4
·
3h
It is the story EVERYONE in Westminster is talking about
Robert Jenrick has had a 'glow up'...
Tory MP sheds weight and unveils new 'Caesar' haircut
Source says he has a "new lease of life" after going on a health kick
Leadership bid anybody? 💅💇♂️
25% seems to be core Tory support - it may dip for an especially stupid disaster, but rebounds
12% seems to be the LibDems
6% for SNP, PC etc
9% for Ref seems fairly stable at the moment
That’s 52% of the vote that’s not available to any kind of Labour.
I expected to see more of a Green bounce. Admittedly they’re up in Opinium but generally they’ve been flat. Without the Green bounce it’s hard to conclude Labour support has been dented by Gaza.
Rather I think there’s a plague on both houses sentiment out there and that’s benefiting Lib Dems and Reform.
The necklace has changed it seems.
Great move from David Cameron today. What I would like to see next is less unwavering support for the Two State solution, from UK, European and US politicians.
The Israeli Ambassador to UK merely stated the position of Netanyahu’s government this week. As they have done so well out of the status quo the last two dozen years - taking more of the West Bank instead of surrendering it - then why not? But it’s also clear to me, so many on the Palestinian side care not for the Two State solution as well right now.
When Sunak, Starmer, and their delegates swear blind faith to the two state solution, what are they actually saying, do they know?
It’s partition. And good idea to partition asap before Isreal can control even more area’s.
But where can you draw the line today where both sides in the dispute see the result as just, and are charitable to making the deal work, so ending the cycle for pauses where things fester, and times of such violence, cruelty and horror?
Having researched the current Palestinians, and talked about the issue as it is today in Church groups, I personally see it as not two, but at least three or four State Solution, with other areas, like so much of the West Bank where daily lives of Arab and Jew and Christian still so entwined, really should not fall under jurisdiction of any state, if we really want a solution to be seen as just and have everyone’s charitable intent to make it work.
Do you see my point, Politicians, journalists and academics who stand by the two state solution I think only do so because they are out of touch, and incapable of the creative, imaginative thinking necessary to actually solve issues like this one.
But the Election is coming as well!
Good to see the return of old school posters!! 👍
What is Israel achieving other than sowing the seeds of future intractable conflicts?
On the IPSOS leadership tracker he seems to be about as popular as LOTO's Kinnock, Hague and Howard (granted he isn't in the pit of hell with Foot, IDS and Corbyn but he's also no where near as popular a LOTO as Blair or Cameron.
Only snag for the Tories is what while there isn't and never has been any love for Starmer, their leader is doing much worse.
In the end I suspect attacking SKS personally will have some cut through and may add a couple of % on to the Tory lead in the election campaign.
Otherwise just polishing a turd.
So wait a little. Then say it again, no one notices, no coverage, and it gets normalized and mainstreamed.
Let’s be clear: migrants ‘poisoning the blood’ is Hitler rhetoric.
https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1736129309796897133
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67740331
Netanyahu_votes += 1?Marrying the daughter of a billionaire at least ensures the Sunaks are secure financially I suppose whatever the election result
PM says lack of action against illegal crossings would lead to growing numbers that will ‘overwhelm our countries’"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/12/16/rishi-sunak-giorgia-meloni-illegal-migrants-britain-reforms/
I may as well pre-book my X in the Conservative Party box now.
He isn't in the depths with Foot, Corbyn and IDS at the end but he's pretty unpopular for a LOTO and always has been. Where he is on the tracker is historically where LOTO's have been before going on to lose the following election. But. The problem for the Tories is that Sunank is more unpopular.
Going negative on SKS will probably work for Con to some degree but not by much as Sunak is much more unpopular.
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2023-12/ipsos-uk-political-monitor-december-2023-charts.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFWKJ2FUiAQ
"Song To The Siren" with Elizabeth Fraser.
As for the last point, the conflict already seemed pretty intractable. There's wider instability now, but is the change for Israel one of degree only?
Is it the right choice? Fuck if I know, but with an enemy who they know wants to commit further attacks and already had plenty of support it is easy to see how Israel would calculate an increase in that support but less immediate opportunity to act on it would still be a net win, at the cost of constant vigilance, which they already thought they were doing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMTEtDBHGY4
With Starmer I don't think it's a matter of whether he is boring, not exactly. But a 60 year old establishment lawyer just is not going to be easy to paint as a radical no matter how much they put up posters of him next to Corbyn, not with Corbyn pretty much neutralised as an issue by personally seeing to his exclusion.
That leaves painting him as the risky option, even dangerous. There again they have issues that Labour's financial plans could well be nonsense, but the government has either through poor management or poor luch overseen a pretty crappy economic situation, and absent the risk of Brexit being taken away, how are they going to sell the risky, dangerous attack either?
"Rolf Degen
@DegenRolf
Evolutionary psychology, based on the ideas of Charles Darwin, has lost the academic race to the Standard Social Sciences Model, which focuses on social and cultural influences rather than evolved motives. https://researchsquare.com/article/rs-3569018/v2"
https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1735918046223421469
This is a great case in point, since agree with what I wrote or not about how the Israeli state may be assessing its options, simply posting death ratios doesn't speak to that point one way or another, because the whole point was that Israel's current actions could be considered by some to be disproportionate, excessive, or self-harming, but it might still conclude it to be better than the alternatives in terms of securing immediate safety (and indeed, many may agree with them on that too). And that can help us understand their motivations and actions, if my guess is in any way accurate.
I’m with all the people on PB who thinks it’s an error to keep flagging up problems you are not effectively dealing with. It’s too easy for voters to do the math: if illegal boat crossings will overwhelm us, and that’s a fraction of Sunak’s legal migration mess of Tories own making, keeping this government in will overwhelm us in legal migration much sooner than the illegal migration will.
The problem in getting voters back from Reform isn’t the rhetoric or policy, the problem is these voters have grown tired of being let down by “migration in the tens of thousands” type promises not being delivered on, they don’t mind if someone else has a go. How many years of “immigration down into tens of thousands” type promises does it take, before a voter knows they’ve been had? These voters are walking because they see the Tories as divided, useless at delivering on promises, the leader as out of touch rich twit, and don’t fear a Starmer government. Harder rhetoric and a couple of half filled cherry picked token Rwanda flights will just remind voters they are being gas lit by this government.
However, whilst Reform/Braverman rhetoric and policy won’t get these voters back to the Tories anytime soon, that rhetoric and policy can certainly cost the Tories huge swaves of the centre ground vote they have had installing MPs for them, since 2010 and 2015 elections.
Yes but Keir Starmer also kicked him out of the party. Rishi partied with BoJo
But recent months have seen a lot of people cross way over any kind of sympathy line or simply imploring the Israelis from undertaking excessive or collective punitive action. When people did and do outright celebrate what happened on October 7th, when their antisemitism leads them to carry signs calling for genocide or rip down posters of kidnapped children, we are beyond that.
I recall Oz Katerji, the British-Lebanese war correspondent and big supporter of Palestinian statehood, making that point very vigorously, in being against atrocities committed by either side, whereas plenty of people justify their own.
It's not a majority of those calling for the Israeli's to temper their understandable rage doing that, but it is not some inconsequential minority either.
Do voters disappearing from one column have to show up in another? Are there signs don’t know or won’t say have taken a rise?
@WalshFreedom
·
Dec 15
He’s the only sitting President in American history who lost an election and refused to concede and refused to participate in the peaceful transfer of power.
Don’t you dare tell me he won’t try to be dictator if he’s reelected. Don’t fucking tell me he’s not serious about that.
Some of them know it's crazy, right back to the first primaries he made clear if he lost he'd call it rigged, but even those who acknowledge that and gently criticise him (not by name, usually), almost all still back him.
I can understand if a calculation has been made that there are more votes open on the right than the centre, even if the centre ground is a greater proportion of the population, as that vote might already be mostly gone.
But if that is the calculation you still need to deliver for those on the right, and you also need to consistently target them, whereas the government seems all over the place, given the Braverman stuff and Cameron return etc.
Is there something I should know?
Is there something I should say
That would make you come my way?
Do you feel the same 'cause you don't let it show?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3M0hogZyRyU
But over the last decade the Conservative party changed. It moved from a hard-headed assessment of Israel and the Arabs based on what we could do, to a more sentimental one based on Israel-as-narrative instead of the concrete state. This cumulated in Sunak telling Israel that UK was on Israel's side and hoped it'd win, whilst providing nothing but gestures ("We sent a hospital ship!" Well, that's nice).
This feeds into a thing in my head that says the Conservative party has become voluntarily stupid. A combination of Johnson's purge, reliance on phones for data, and Sunak's conspiracy theorism lines up with its comfort with the Meloni/Modi/Orban crowd (the Supranational Right?). They think gestures are important, Twitter is believable, and "calls for" are meaningful, and tbh I don't see them reading a lot. They don't know what they're doing any more, so whilst they are definitely pro-Israel now, they don't translate that into anything useful.
All these people should have the same rights.
They do not currently.
Any long-term solution has to work out how to make sure that everyone gets the same basic rights, including the right to safety from attack, the right to self determination, and the right to elect their own government.
Hamas is not serious about such a solution. Nor, candidly, is the current Israeli government.
And as is so often the case, it is the extremists who offer up the chimera of "protection" who thrive when things are difficult. And every atrocity makes another one more likely, and a lasting peace more difficult.
The Israelis have also shifted a lot in recent decades with the Israeli left seriously weakened, the settler issue being more powerful (and vociferous) and successful targeting of politicians in UK/US and other nations by Israeli influence, the 2 state solution so championed in the 1990s has effectively been sidelined wih a knock-on for Israeli confidence (and improved relations with Gulf states)..the Arab spring probably helped Israel (look at the mess in Syria) and a general sidelining of Palestinian leaders - Yasser Arafat may not have been successful but he did have a voice on the world stage. All this has meant that the Conservatives have shifted away from a more nuanced position towards the problem to one where Israel is more assertive in its conduct (helped by Hamas's dreadful actions in October)
But I hope we would agree that if someone is born between the river and the sea to a Jewish mother then they should broadly similar rights to someone born to a Muslim Arab mother?
Personally, I don't really care what solutions is reached, so long as it both protects Jews in the region and Palestinians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3a4OTh2Y8w
Shame on you
Whatever they’ve done, they don’t deserve such a fate.
Nobody deserves to have to put up with Piers Morgan.
And also - somebody was asking why the Israelis haven’t stopped even though Hamas must have suffered a hammer blow to its capabilities already. The point above is one reason. However, we should also not forget that the second this conflict finishes, so does Netanyahu‘s political career, and his chances of staying out of prison for the innumerable crimes he has committed.
Ignore international pressure for the moment (as the Israelis always do). The best chance of a ceasefire is if the hostage killings lead some of the saner elements in Netanyahu‘s coalition to withdraw support.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2023/dec/15/piers-morgan-denies-knowing-phone-hacking-judge-rules-did-prince-harry
Imagine if he was done for contempt of court...
2. Israel are the Goliath in the David and Goliath story
3. It's human nature to support the battered underdog
4. The Israeli Government and it's spokespeople are extremely unattractive to all except for staunch right-wingers and a limited number of elderly Jews