Rishi Sunak is now as unpopular as Boris Johnson was when he resigned as prime minister.
Polling from YouGov, carried out before last night’s crunch vote on the Rwanda bill, found 70% of people said they had an unfavourable opinion of Sunak, compared with 21% who had a favourable opinion.
It means the prime minister has been given his lowest ever net favourability score of minus 49, a drop of 10 points from late November.
Sunak also faced a new low among 2019 Tory voters, whom he is keen to hold on to ahead of the next election. With that group 56% had a negative view of the prime minister, compared with 40% who had a positive view.
The new figures, seen by The Times, mean Sunak’s overall net favourability score is comparable with Johnson’s during his final months in office, which was minus 46 immediately after he resigned and dropped to minus 53 a month later.
However, it is not as low as Liz Truss’s, which dropped to minus 70.
Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, also saw his score fall nine points to minus 22, with 32% of Britons holding a positive opinion of him compared with 54% who had a negative one.
Clause 7 of the Rwanda (Paddington Bear Deportation) Bill deems Tuesdays to be Mondays when the Secretary of State so declares and purports to oust the jurisdiction of any court to decide otherwise or review. I see we are cravenly complying.
Scene one: little Johnny, cheating with a ruler, notices that Pi is only 3.1; Mr Brown the maths teacher is not impressed. Scene two: A week later Pi is down to 3.05 and even Mr Brown can't ignore it any longer. Scene three: Johnny and Mr Brown approach a hush-hush government lab where the boffins admit they already know about Pi but will have to lock them up to avoid mass hysteria. Scene four: using a cunning mathematical ruse Johnny and Mr Brown escape and head to Fleet Street. Scene five: Daily News splash headline, but no-one cares. Scene six: Pi is back to normal; it was just a storm in the ether. Scene seven: Pi triumphantly reproduced to ten thousand significant figures.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
If the election is after May of next year any of those positives do happen for the Tories they will be undone by the slaughter in the May locals.
Although October is picked as the most likely date for a GE, May has the advantage for the Tories of stopping that bit of bad news.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
On point 1 - how it has to get through the Lords and it’s not a manifesto commitment so there is no reason for the Lords to wave it through
Multiple barriers: 1. Government needs to steamroller it through the committee stage in the Commons. The various Batshit families aren't done yet - one side wants it harder, the other side wants it softer 2. Once that completes it goes to the Lords. Assuming that the bill still breeches international law, I anticipate a great deal of resistance from the other place 3. Lets assume the Tories manage to get past both obstacles. The new law still allows challenge through the courts. So we need to clear that process 4. Lets assume the Tories simply disregard any court ruling and stick people onto a plane. Will Rwanda let them land? The Rwandans cannot be clearer - they will not accept a deal which is in breech of international law. And this law will be. 5. I anticipate the Rwandans may be open to change their minds if paid enough money. So are we up to £1bn in exchange for that WE DID IT orgasm?
We hopped on a last minute flight to Goa until Xmas eve. Work not happy but it was necessary, just being in the warm is worth the hassle of flying 9h with a toddler.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
On point 1 - how it has to get through the Lords and it’s not a manifesto commitment so there is no reason for the Lords to wave it through
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
On point 1 - how it has to get through the Lords and it’s not a manifesto commitment so there is no reason for the Lords to wave it through
The Lords will slow it down but will not block.
One thing that will unite the Tories is interference from the Lords.
We hopped on a last minute flight to Goa until Xmas eve. Work not happy but it was necessary, just being in the warm is worth the hassle of flying 9h with a toddler.
My son and g/f just back from there. Had a great time.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Disagree on all three, not strongly, but think 1 is decent odds against, 2 is pretty uncertain and volatile, and 3 only applies with the parliamentary party, within the Tory members, donors and media the post fascists or whatever they should be called are dominant, and I expect Farage as leader within 4 years.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
On point 1 - how it has to get through the Lords and it’s not a manifesto commitment so there is no reason for the Lords to wave it through
We hopped on a last minute flight to Goa until Xmas eve. Work not happy but it was necessary, just being in the warm is worth the hassle of flying 9h with a toddler.
Could you not have stayed at home and turned the central heating up?
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Disagree on all three, not strongly, but think 1 is decent odds against, 2 is pretty uncertain and volatile, and 3 only applies with the parliamentary party, within the Tory members, donors and media the post fascists or whatever they should be called are dominant, and I expect Farage as leader within 4 years.
Nigel Farage will need to become a Conservative MP before he can become leader, which in practice means he will need to join the party and its candidate list (subject to leader's veto) and be chosen for a safe seat before the next election which may be as soon as next spring.
Same for Boris (at least the candidate part).
All those hoping for Boris or Farage need to keep an eye on the calendar. If nothing happens soon, it won't happen.
We hopped on a last minute flight to Goa until Xmas eve. Work not happy but it was necessary, just being in the warm is worth the hassle of flying 9h with a toddler.
Could you not have stayed at home and turned the central heating up?
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Disagree on all three, not strongly, but think 1 is decent odds against, 2 is pretty uncertain and volatile, and 3 only applies with the parliamentary party, within the Tory members, donors and media the post fascists or whatever they should be called are dominant, and I expect Farage as leader within 4 years.
Nigel Farage will need to become a Conservative MP before he can become leader, which in practice means he will need to join the party and its candidate list (subject to leader's veto) and be chosen for a safe seat before the next election which may be as soon as next spring.
Same for Boris (at least the candidate part).
All those hoping for Boris or Farage need to keep an eye on the calendar. If nothing happens soon, it won't happen.
I suspect it will be more like:
2024 GE Crushing defeat 2024/5 New populist leader takes over and woos Farage 2025-6 Random By Election 2027/8 Farage defenestrates leader silly enough to woo him in
We hopped on a last minute flight to Goa until Xmas eve. Work not happy but it was necessary, just being in the warm is worth the hassle of flying 9h with a toddler.
Could you not have stayed at home and turned the central heating up?
Cheaper to take the holiday and turn the heating off?
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Disagree on all three, not strongly, but think 1 is decent odds against, 2 is pretty uncertain and volatile, and 3 only applies with the parliamentary party, within the Tory members, donors and media the post fascists or whatever they should be called are dominant, and I expect Farage as leader within 4 years.
Nigel Farage will need to become a Conservative MP before he can become leader, which in practice means he will need to join the party and its candidate list (subject to leader's veto) and be chosen for a safe seat before the next election which may be as soon as next spring.
Same for Boris (at least the candidate part).
All those hoping for Boris or Farage need to keep an eye on the calendar. If nothing happens soon, it won't happen.
I suspect it will be more like:
2024 GE Crushing defeat 2024/5 New populist leader takes over and woos Farage 2025-6 Random By Election 2027/8 Farage defenestrates leader silly enough to woo him in
As the relative sizes of the groupings in the Tory party showed this week, I don't see Farage getting anywhere near the leadership. The far-right (an awful term really, the ERG are NOT Nazis, despite what some social media warriors claim) are not that numerous, and many will likely be lost at the election.
We hopped on a last minute flight to Goa until Xmas eve. Work not happy but it was necessary, just being in the warm is worth the hassle of flying 9h with a toddler.
Could you not have stayed at home and turned the central heating up?
Cheaper to take the holiday and turn the heating off?
Until the pipes freeze, and then burst and flood the house...
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Disagree on all three, not strongly, but think 1 is decent odds against, 2 is pretty uncertain and volatile, and 3 only applies with the parliamentary party, within the Tory members, donors and media the post fascists or whatever they should be called are dominant, and I expect Farage as leader within 4 years.
Nigel Farage will need to become a Conservative MP before he can become leader, which in practice means he will need to join the party and its candidate list (subject to leader's veto) and be chosen for a safe seat before the next election which may be as soon as next spring.
Same for Boris (at least the candidate part).
All those hoping for Boris or Farage need to keep an eye on the calendar. If nothing happens soon, it won't happen.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
If the election is after May of next year any of those positives do happen for the Tories they will be undone by the slaughter in the May locals.
Although October is picked as the most likely date for a GE, May has the advantage for the Tories of stopping that bit of bad news.
May doesn't give time for immigration numbers to come down and Sunak won't care about saving a few Tory councillors due to higher Tory local election turnout if he is still miles behind in pre May polls. He will want to maximise his chance of turning things around or at least his time in office
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Disagree on all three, not strongly, but think 1 is decent odds against, 2 is pretty uncertain and volatile, and 3 only applies with the parliamentary party, within the Tory members, donors and media the post fascists or whatever they should be called are dominant, and I expect Farage as leader within 4 years.
Nigel Farage will need to become a Conservative MP before he can become leader, which in practice means he will need to join the party and its candidate list (subject to leader's veto) and be chosen for a safe seat before the next election which may be as soon as next spring.
Same for Boris (at least the candidate part).
All those hoping for Boris or Farage need to keep an eye on the calendar. If nothing happens soon, it won't happen.
I suspect it will be more like:
2024 GE Crushing defeat 2024/5 New populist leader takes over and woos Farage 2025-6 Random By Election 2027/8 Farage defenestrates leader silly enough to woo him in
As the relative sizes of the groupings in the Tory party showed this week, I don't see Farage getting anywhere near the leadership. The far-right (an awful term really, the ERG are NOT Nazis, despite what some social media warriors claim) are not that numerous, and many will likely be lost at the election.
Tory parliamentary party is quite different to the Tory party membership. When the members are backed by the press and donors I know who I expect to win out in the medium term.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
On point 1 - how it has to get through the Lords and it’s not a manifesto commitment so there is no reason for the Lords to wave it through
The Lords will slow it down but will not block.
One thing that will unite the Tories is interference from the Lords.
The same Lords stuffed with Tories? Comfortable majority of political party peers.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
If the election is after May of next year any of those positives do happen for the Tories they will be undone by the slaughter in the May locals.
Although October is picked as the most likely date for a GE, May has the advantage for the Tories of stopping that bit of bad news.
May doesn't give time for immigration numbers to come down and Sunak won't care about saving a few Tory councillors due to higher Tory local election turnout if he is still miles behind in pre May polls. He will want to maximise his chance of turning things around or at least his time in office
If Rishi doesn’t go for an election in May he’s going to find going later even worse because I expect to see a lot of bad news from councils from June onwards as bad news regarding section 114 notices is released when the blame can be pinned on the previous (Tory) leadership
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
On point 1 - how it has to get through the Lords and it’s not a manifesto commitment so there is no reason for the Lords to wave it through
The Lords will slow it down but will not block.
One thing that will unite the Tories is interference from the Lords.
The same Lords stuffed with Tories? Comfortable majority of political party peers.
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
On point 1 - how it has to get through the Lords and it’s not a manifesto commitment so there is no reason for the Lords to wave it through
The Lords will slow it down but will not block.
One thing that will unite the Tories is interference from the Lords.
The same Lords stuffed with Tories? Comfortable majority of political party peers.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
We hopped on a last minute flight to Goa until Xmas eve. Work not happy but it was necessary, just being in the warm is worth the hassle of flying 9h with a toddler.
Could you not have stayed at home and turned the central heating up?
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Disagree on all three, not strongly, but think 1 is decent odds against, 2 is pretty uncertain and volatile, and 3 only applies with the parliamentary party, within the Tory members, donors and media the post fascists or whatever they should be called are dominant, and I expect Farage as leader within 4 years.
Nigel Farage will need to become a Conservative MP before he can become leader, which in practice means he will need to join the party and its candidate list (subject to leader's veto) and be chosen for a safe seat before the next election which may be as soon as next spring.
Same for Boris (at least the candidate part).
All those hoping for Boris or Farage need to keep an eye on the calendar. If nothing happens soon, it won't happen.
We hopped on a last minute flight to Goa until Xmas eve. Work not happy but it was necessary, just being in the warm is worth the hassle of flying 9h with a toddler.
Goa always makes me think of Eric Idle talking to Terry Jones.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
If the election is after May of next year any of those positives do happen for the Tories they will be undone by the slaughter in the May locals.
Although October is picked as the most likely date for a GE, May has the advantage for the Tories of stopping that bit of bad news.
May doesn't give time for immigration numbers to come down and Sunak won't care about saving a few Tory councillors due to higher Tory local election turnout if he is still miles behind in pre May polls. He will want to maximise his chance of turning things around or at least his time in office
January 2025 is my bet. The government will hang on as long as possible hoping for something to turn up.
But perhaps the one thing I've not priced in is whether Rishi might just walk away. This is the first time in his life he has met any setback. He was the golden boy at school, university and American university. He has a happy marriage. At work he quickly rose up and made millions. In politics, he was elected first time, became a minister after two years and Cabinet minister after two more and Chancellor after The Saj fell out with Classic Dom. His only failure was losing the leadership election to Liz Truss but that disappointment lasted no longer than a lettuce before he reached Number 10.
For the first time, things are not going well for Rishi. From his point of view, his critics are behaving irrationally. Does he have the resilience to KBO? It's not as if he needs the money.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
On point 1 - how it has to get through the Lords and it’s not a manifesto commitment so there is no reason for the Lords to wave it through
The Lords will slow it down but will not block.
One thing that will unite the Tories is interference from the Lords.
The same Lords stuffed with Tories? Comfortable majority of political party peers.
The non-political party peers can also vote.
That the non-politicals might even vote a different way shouldn't be happening, from the point of view of anyone who is a sane member of the Tory party.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
No wonder: it's a building society not a bank.
Nationwide was one of the few banks or building society's not affected by the 2008 crash and still largely keeps branches open
Rishi Sunak is now as unpopular as Boris Johnson was when he resigned as prime minister.
Polling from YouGov, carried out before last night’s crunch vote on the Rwanda bill, found 70% of people said they had an unfavourable opinion of Sunak, compared with 21% who had a favourable opinion.
It means the prime minister has been given his lowest ever net favourability score of minus 49, a drop of 10 points from late November.
Sunak also faced a new low among 2019 Tory voters, whom he is keen to hold on to ahead of the next election. With that group 56% had a negative view of the prime minister, compared with 40% who had a positive view.
The new figures, seen by The Times, mean Sunak’s overall net favourability score is comparable with Johnson’s during his final months in office, which was minus 46 immediately after he resigned and dropped to minus 53 a month later.
However, it is not as low as Liz Truss’s, which dropped to minus 70.
Sir Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, also saw his score fall nine points to minus 22, with 32% of Britons holding a positive opinion of him compared with 54% who had a negative one.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Disagree on all three, not strongly, but think 1 is decent odds against, 2 is pretty uncertain and volatile, and 3 only applies with the parliamentary party, within the Tory members, donors and media the post fascists or whatever they should be called are dominant, and I expect Farage as leader within 4 years.
Nigel Farage will need to become a Conservative MP before he can become leader, which in practice means he will need to join the party and its candidate list (subject to leader's veto) and be chosen for a safe seat before the next election which may be as soon as next spring.
Same for Boris (at least the candidate part).
All those hoping for Boris or Farage need to keep an eye on the calendar. If nothing happens soon, it won't happen.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
No, better would be more devolution in England within 1 UK
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
On point 1 - how it has to get through the Lords and it’s not a manifesto commitment so there is no reason for the Lords to wave it through
The Lords will slow it down but will not block.
One thing that will unite the Tories is interference from the Lords.
The same Lords stuffed with Tories? Comfortable majority of political party peers.
The non-political party peers can also vote.
That the non-politicals might even vote a different way shouldn't be happening, from the point of view of anyone who is a sane member of the Tory party.
I don’t understand. I was pointing out that the fact that the Tories have a majority of the political peers in the Lords doesn’t mean much when they don’t have a majority of the voting peers.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
No wonder: it's a building society not a bank.
I did try for bank-name puns before resorting to 'Nationwide'
Though I suppose if Barclay did become leader immediately after Sunak - particularly in a coronation say - he'd be First, Direct
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
If the election is after May of next year any of those positives do happen for the Tories they will be undone by the slaughter in the May locals.
Although October is picked as the most likely date for a GE, May has the advantage for the Tories of stopping that bit of bad news.
May doesn't give time for immigration numbers to come down and Sunak won't care about saving a few Tory councillors due to higher Tory local election turnout if he is still miles behind in pre May polls. He will want to maximise his chance of turning things around or at least his time in office
If Rishi doesn’t go for an election in May he’s going to find going later even worse because I expect to see a lot of bad news from councils from June onwards as bad news regarding section 114 notices is released when the blame can be pinned on the previous (Tory) leadership
At which point it can be blamed on local councils leadership which will likely be even less Tory than now (and even now most councils are not Tory controlled after last year's results)
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
No wonder: it's a building society not a bank.
Nationwide was one of the few banks or building society's not affected by the 2008 crash and still largely keeps branches open
Um first bit really wasn’t true but yep, Nationwide are currently keeping branches open because their customer profile requires it
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
With Christmas on its way will Santander liver a leadership contest he can win?
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
The past few months his wife died and his son got sent back to prison due to breaching conditions of his release after being found to be paedo and rapist. I imagine that has been incredibly tough time for him.
Now on a lighter note....
He is going to spend more time at his definitely not a second home.....home.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
With Christmas on its way will Santander liver a leadership contest he can win?
He'd need appeal in many areas: National, Westminster...
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
On point 1 - how it has to get through the Lords and it’s not a manifesto commitment so there is no reason for the Lords to wave it through
The Lords will slow it down but will not block.
One thing that will unite the Tories is interference from the Lords.
The same Lords stuffed with Tories? Comfortable majority of political party peers.
The non-political party peers can also vote.
That the non-politicals might even vote a different way shouldn't be happening, from the point of view of anyone who is a sane member of the Tory party.
I don’t understand. I was pointing out that the fact that the Tories have a majority of the political peers in the Lords doesn’t mean much when they don’t have a majority of the voting peers.
Sorry. Still mentally responding to MaxPB. It should mean quite a lot, but the reasons why it doesn't (as you rightly say) should worry any Tory.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
With Christmas on its way will Santander liver a leadership contest he can win?
He'd need appeal in many areas: National, Westminster...
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
With Christmas on its way will Santander liver a leadership contest he can win?
He'd need appeal in many areas: National, Westminster...
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
No wonder: it's a building society not a bank.
Nationwide was one of the few banks or building society's not affected by the 2008 crash and still largely keeps branches open
Oh, sure - I was just making a joke ... in reality I've been a Nationwide member since, oh, the 1980s?
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
With Christmas on its way will Santander liver a leadership contest he can win?
He'd need appeal in many areas: National, Westminster...
(we might as well get this over with, right?)
Oh alright, I shouldn't but ...
Yes he'll need to go Chasing votes.
If he loses his seat he may forget about the Commons and just go straight to the Lloyds.
Monthly and even quarterly GDP statistics are worth precisely nothing, and it is stupid to make decisions on that basis. For one thing, they are routinely revised by large amounts. For another, factors like a snowy spell or a couple of bank holidays or a big sports tournament can thrown everything off. Also the changes month to month are invariably tiny.
But most importantly, an obsessive focus on the very short term detracts from focusing on our main economic problem: that, long term, we have all but stopped growing. And often measures to raise growth in the long term have adverse effects in the short term, as Mrs Thatcher discovered in the early 80s. So if I had my way, I'd stop the production of very short-term numbers - it's an American practice, partly reflecting and partly causing the very short-term focus of US financial markets, and, like so many American habits we've imported, it is hurting not helping us.
We should go the full Cowperthwaite (ref HongKong) and stop producing GDP figures
an excessive focus on GDP encourages problematic and excessive state interventions. Sir John Cowperthwaite, a governor of Hong Kong, famously refused to compile statistics on the gross output of Hong Kong on the basis that it would just lead to the temptation to unnecessarily 'manage' the economy https://committees.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/106566/html/
If memory serves, Matthew Lesh (the person in the link and Head of Public Policy, Institute of Economic Affairs) lifted that almost directly from PJ O'Rourke. I think it was "Eat The Rich" https://vocal.media/theSwamp/p-j-o-rourke-s-brilliant-treatise .
Cowperthwaite used to be put forward as an exemplar quite a lot: it's nice to see him still cited in the 2020s. But the tenor of the times is towards greater govt interference, not less: the Rwanda Bill, where the Govt says what is a safe country, is a ginormous govt overreach.
Not just O'Rourke but Milton Friedman and other luminaries of liberal economics have referenced Cowperthwaite. I think if you delve further that you will find that PJO'R "lifted" his encomium from one of them. I did not expect my tongue-in-cheek remark to be taken seriously but you're a serious and assiduous fellow so fyi the context here is the usefulness or otherwise of quarterly - let alone monthly - GDP. As the frequency of such estimates increases the signal-to-noise ratio diminishes. We all 'know' about revisions to GDP, and some here are prone to cast aspertions on the ONS for them. Which is quite wrong because the revisions are a sign that the statistical agency is doing a thorough job. Far better than those which produce a quarterly estimate and never subsequently revise it (e.g. France and plenty others). Anyway, the point is that the MoE of most monthly GDP figures is a multiple of that of quarterly figures which are themselves only just about respectable enough to be worthy of comment.
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
But his legacy will be quite something. 20mph limits will now be rolled out across Scotland by 2025. English local councils everywhere are all following His example - Birmingham, Oxford, London, Cornwall, the Wirral, Lancashire, Southampton.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
With Christmas on its way will Santander liver a leadership contest he can win?
He'd need appeal in many areas: National, Westminster...
Given the polls, when we’re considering possible Tory leaders should we not take into account the safety of their seat? Badenoch should be safe enough, although the local Council isn’t Conservative any more.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
With Christmas on its way will Santander liver a leadership contest he can win?
He'd need appeal in many areas: National, Westminster...
(we might as well get this over with, right?)
Oh alright, I shouldn't but ...
Yes he'll need to go Chasing votes.
Can he get the ex BNP voters inside?
I may be going against the Tide here but I am not sure he should be going in Cahoots with them.
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
But his legacy will be quite something. 20mph limits will now be rolled out across Scotland by 2025. English local councils everywhere are all following His example - Birmingham, Oxford, London, Cornwall, the Wirral, Lancashire, Southampton.
EngDrakeland.
There is a place for 20mph speed limits just not the arbitrary abolition of 30mph throughout Wales and this largely accounts for Drakeford's fall from grace
It is hugely unpopular and has economic consequences not least taxi drivers seeking increased fares and bus companies amending their timetables
I am not wanting to enter into dispute with anyone as I simply do not have the strength at present, but if there is a lesson to learn from Wales it is for 20mph zones to be implemented sensibly
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
But his legacy will be quite something. 20mph limits will now be rolled out across Scotland by 2025. English local councils everywhere are all following His example - Birmingham, Oxford, London, Cornwall, the Wirral, Lancashire, Southampton.
EngDrakeland.
There is a place for 20mph speed limits just not the arbitrary abolition of 30mph throughout Wales and this largely accounts for Drakeford's fall from grace
It is hugely unpopular and has economic consequences not least taxi drivers seeking increased fares and bus companies amending their timetables
I am not wanting to enter into dispute with anyone as I simply do not have the strength at present, but if there is a lesson to learn from Wales it is for 20mph zones to be implemented sensibly
...the magnificent ART Davies has suggested when he becomes FT he will fund the roll back of all the 20mph zones by selling/closing the airport.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
1 Disagree. The obstacles + timetable make this very unlikely; it is even possible that the bill won't be passed before the next election, let alone the legal challenges, some of which must go the the SC as it involves novel and important points of law. IMHO the only plan the Tories can have is ensuring the blame rests on Labour/courts/Johnny Foreigner's courts etc.
2 Yes. NOM, while not a probability, remains the value in the betting. There are plenty of ways Labour can add, net, fewer than 123 seats.
3 The betting market on next Tory leader is strange. Recently the Conservative party was a white male club, with Mrs T deemed to be male. The top three white males are not currently in the House of Commons. Of the top 4 women 3 are BAME. The top white male also an MP is Barclay at 25/1, Dowden next at 50/1. No-one has actually heard of either of them in the real world. Agree Cleverley is value, but also Hunt and Gove may be at 66/1. Personally I am keeping out. The times they are a changin'. This race is a mixture of a muddy Grand National in pouring rain and the Father's Obstacle Race - 'very hard to assess form' as Bertie Wooster said.
One might add that an additional difficulty is that the race course officials and pool of voters include a large number of completely mad people.
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
But his legacy will be quite something. 20mph limits will now be rolled out across Scotland by 2025. English local councils everywhere are all following His example - Birmingham, Oxford, London, Cornwall, the Wirral, Lancashire, Southampton.
EngDrakeland.
There is a place for 20mph speed limits just not the arbitrary abolition of 30mph throughout Wales and this largely accounts for Drakeford's fall from grace
It is hugely unpopular and has economic consequences not least taxi drivers seeking increased fares and bus companies amending their timetables
I am not wanting to enter into dispute with anyone as I simply do not have the strength at present, but if there is a lesson to learn from Wales it is for 20mph zones to be implemented sensibly
...the magnificent ART Davies has suggested when he becomes FT he will fund the roll back of all the 20mph zones by selling/closing the airport.
We can both agree ART Davies is useless but hopefully Welsh LA will bring some common sense back on the subject of 20mph zones
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
But his legacy will be quite something. 20mph limits will now be rolled out across Scotland by 2025. English local councils everywhere are all following His example - Birmingham, Oxford, London, Cornwall, the Wirral, Lancashire, Southampton.
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
But his legacy will be quite something. 20mph limits will now be rolled out across Scotland by 2025. English local councils everywhere are all following His example - Birmingham, Oxford, London, Cornwall, the Wirral, Lancashire, Southampton.
EngDrakeland.
There's no umbrella 20 mph limit in either Oxford City or Oxfordshire. In both the policy is that residents or town/parish councils may lobby to reduce an existing 30 mph limit, and the County reviews the pitch for local support and practicality.
You know how Sunak has put up taxes and increased mortgages in the real world? How does he think there are votes in insisting that he has cut taxes and decreased mortgages?
You know how Sunak has put up taxes and increased mortgages in the real world? How does he think there are votes in insisting that he has cut taxes and decreased mortgages?
Does he think people are stupid?
You forget, all the economic green shoots are all Rishi's work undoing all of Starmer's chaos. He explains this every week at PMQs
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Barclay is most likely Tory Leader of the Opposition still in my view if as is likely the Conservatives lose the next general election, though if she got to the membership Badenoch would be hard to beat
I wouldn't bank on it.
Yep. Nationwide appeal is limited, I'd say.
With Christmas on its way will Santander liver a leadership contest he can win?
He'd need appeal in many areas: National, Westminster...
(we might as well get this over with, right?)
Oh alright, I shouldn't but ...
Yes he'll need to go Chasing votes.
Smaller local building societies are also very popular with ordinary people who want a safe place for money, one up from an old sock, want to be able to deal with nice humans, want a branch is small towns, don't mix banking and casinos and so on. Am I right in thinking that not a single building society that turned into a bank survives as an independent entity?
You know how Sunak has put up taxes and increased mortgages in the real world? How does he think there are votes in insisting that he has cut taxes and decreased mortgages?
Does he think people are stupid?
You forget, all the economic green shoots are all Rishi's work undoing all of Starmer's chaos. He explains this every week at PMQs
I'm confused. My £250 a month increase in my mortgage. Is that actually a reduction actually? Or is it actually Starmer's fault?
You're right - he says both. But it can't be both.
Given the polls, when we’re considering possible Tory leaders should we not take into account the safety of their seat? Badenoch should be safe enough, although the local Council isn’t Conservative any more.
Certainly for next Tory leader after a General Election. Of the key contenders, Mordaunt seems most at risk - she has a significant majority and I suspect is a reasonably popular MP, but the seat has a Labour history and the local elections were pretty dire (Labour weren't really the beneficiaries but you'd expect tactical voting at a GE).
If they are looking to change pre-election (which I think is doubtful) it matters less. If the PM loses their seat, that's clearly embarrassing... but they'd have already lost the election heavily anyway. There is no major contender who could win the election but lose their seat.
You know how Sunak has put up taxes and increased mortgages in the real world? How does he think there are votes in insisting that he has cut taxes and decreased mortgages?
Does he think people are stupid?
You forget, all the economic green shoots are all Rishi's work undoing all of Starmer's chaos. He explains this every week at PMQs
I'm confused. My £250 a month increase in my mortgage. Is that actually a reduction actually? Or is it actually Starmer's fault?
You're right - he says both. But it can't be both.
I am out of the country and had to rely on the Guardian synopsis. But it does look like Rishi is getting cross with Starmer for the mess the country is in.
You know how Sunak has put up taxes and increased mortgages in the real world? How does he think there are votes in insisting that he has cut taxes and decreased mortgages?
Does he think people are stupid?
You forget, all the economic green shoots are all Rishi's work undoing all of Starmer's chaos. He explains this every week at PMQs
I'm confused. My £250 a month increase in my mortgage. Is that actually a reduction actually? Or is it actually Starmer's fault?
You're right - he says both. But it can't be both.
I am out of the country and had to rely on the Guardian synopsis. But it does look like Rishi is getting cross with Starmer for the mess the country is in.
Sunak stood there boasting about all of the houses he is building. Starmer gave specific examples of people made homeless by Tory law changes allowing easier evictions. An 11 year-old boy who asked Santa for a forever home so he can get his toys out of storage Sunak responded by blaming Starmer for voting down the measure which would have allowed homes to be built.
Never mind that the issue is people being evicted and not how many homes are being built. Sunak said firstly that its his credit that so many houses have been built, then that it was Starmer's fault that houses haven't been built.
Again, it can't be both. Either all is sunny in Sunakland. Or all is shit and its the fault of Starmer / Drakeford. They need to choose a line and stick to it.
Having watched his spittle-flecked fury at Starmer during PMQs, I think the Tories need to dig out Johnson's fridge for Sunak to hide in during the GE campaign. He is not going to make it through without a major meltdown otherwise.
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
But his legacy will be quite something. 20mph limits will now be rolled out across Scotland by 2025. English local councils everywhere are all following His example - Birmingham, Oxford, London, Cornwall, the Wirral, Lancashire, Southampton.
EngDrakeland.
The first step in regaining the Lost Lands of Lloegr!
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
So Drakeford is about half as unpopular as Rishi Sunak!
I sense some who would you rather have a pint with Farage, Sunak or Starmer type conversations coming.
Even if there were some way of doing it, it would be preposterous for the Tories to make Farage leader. Absolutely ludicrous. But they’re going to lose a fair few votes to Reform if he takes over there again, which he surely will.
The clamour for the Tories to roll out the red carpet for Farage will surely soon become irresistible. It's an almighty itch that just won't go away. I doubt it will ultimately do then any good, but they need to get it out of their system. It's kill or cure.
I sense some who would you rather have a pint with Farage, Sunak or Starmer type conversations coming.
Even if there were some way of doing it, it would be preposterous for the Tories to make Farage leader. Absolutely ludicrous. But they’re going to lose a fair few votes to Reform if he takes over there again, which he surely will.
Another spot of absolutely ludicrous is just par for the Tories.
Comments
New Polish Foreign Minister
https://twitter.com/eeldenden/status/1734562165728686365
Scene one: little Johnny, cheating with a ruler, notices that Pi is only 3.1; Mr Brown the maths teacher is not impressed. Scene two: A week later Pi is down to 3.05 and even Mr Brown can't ignore it any longer. Scene three: Johnny and Mr Brown approach a hush-hush government lab where the boffins admit they already know about Pi but will have to lock them up to avoid mass hysteria. Scene four: using a cunning mathematical ruse Johnny and Mr Brown escape and head to Fleet Street. Scene five: Daily News splash headline, but no-one cares. Scene six: Pi is back to normal; it was just a storm in the ether. Scene seven: Pi triumphantly reproduced to ten thousand significant figures.
Although October is picked as the most likely date for a GE, May has the advantage for the Tories of stopping that bit of bad news.
1. Government needs to steamroller it through the committee stage in the Commons. The various Batshit families aren't done yet - one side wants it harder, the other side wants it softer
2. Once that completes it goes to the Lords. Assuming that the bill still breeches international law, I anticipate a great deal of resistance from the other place
3. Lets assume the Tories manage to get past both obstacles. The new law still allows challenge through the courts. So we need to clear that process
4. Lets assume the Tories simply disregard any court ruling and stick people onto a plane. Will Rwanda let them land? The Rwandans cannot be clearer - they will not accept a deal which is in breech of international law. And this law will be.
5. I anticipate the Rwandans may be open to change their minds if paid enough money. So are we up to £1bn in exchange for that WE DID IT orgasm?
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2023-12-11/what-drakeford-says-about-his-future-as-first-minister
https://www.gbnews.com/politics/mark-drakeford-stand-down-welsh-first-minister-popularity
Same for Boris (at least the candidate part).
All those hoping for Boris or Farage need to keep an eye on the calendar. If nothing happens soon, it won't happen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0uvbIL3jFRw
2024 GE Crushing defeat
2024/5 New populist leader takes over and woos Farage
2025-6 Random By Election
2027/8 Farage defenestrates leader silly enough to woo him in
Wales' First Minister Mark Drakeford resigns
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-67702232
#theDrake
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
But perhaps the one thing I've not priced in is whether Rishi might just walk away. This is the first time in his life he has met any setback. He was the golden boy at school, university and American university. He has a happy marriage. At work he quickly rose up and made millions. In politics, he was elected first time, became a minister after two years and Cabinet minister after two more and Chancellor after The Saj fell out with Classic Dom. His only failure was losing the leadership election to Liz Truss but that disappointment lasted no longer than a lettuce before he reached Number 10.
For the first time, things are not going well for Rishi. From his point of view, his critics are behaving irrationally. Does he have the resilience to KBO? It's not as if he needs the money.
When I was young and naive, I thought that at least some of the people in politics were on my side. Now I realise that none of them are.
I expect that very large numbers feel the same way.
Though I suppose if Barclay did become leader immediately after Sunak - particularly in a coronation say - he'd be First, Direct
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Now on a lighter note....
He is going to spend more time at his definitely not a second home.....home.
(we might as well get this over with, right?)
Yes he'll need to go Chasing votes.
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
Westminster voting intention: December 2023
Conservative: 20% (+1)
Labour: 42% (-8)
Liberal Democrat: 7% (+2)
Plaid Cymru: 15% (+3)
Reform UK: 12% (+4)
Green: 3% (-2)
Other: 1% (-1)
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31%
Doing well
56%
Doing badly
13%
Don't know
I did not expect my tongue-in-cheek remark to be taken seriously but you're a serious and assiduous fellow so fyi the context here is the usefulness or otherwise of quarterly - let alone monthly - GDP. As the frequency of such estimates increases the signal-to-noise ratio diminishes. We all 'know' about revisions to GDP, and some here are prone to cast aspertions on the ONS for them. Which is quite wrong because the revisions are a sign that the statistical agency is doing a thorough job. Far better than those which produce a quarterly estimate and never subsequently revise it (e.g. France and plenty others). Anyway, the point is that the MoE of most monthly GDP figures is a multiple of that of quarterly figures which are themselves only just about respectable enough to be worthy of comment.
EngDrakeland.It is hugely unpopular and has economic consequences not least taxi drivers seeking increased fares and bus companies amending their timetables
I am not wanting to enter into dispute with anyone as I simply do not have the strength at present, but if there is a lesson to learn from Wales it is for 20mph zones to be implemented sensibly
2 Yes. NOM, while not a probability, remains the value in the betting. There are plenty of ways Labour can add, net, fewer than 123 seats.
3 The betting market on next Tory leader is strange. Recently the Conservative party was a white male club, with Mrs T deemed to be male. The top three white males are not currently in the House of Commons. Of the top 4 women 3 are BAME. The top white male also an MP is Barclay at 25/1, Dowden next at 50/1. No-one has actually heard of either of them in the real world. Agree Cleverley is value, but also Hunt and Gove may be at 66/1. Personally I am keeping out. The times they are a changin'. This race is a mixture of a muddy Grand National in pouring rain and the Father's Obstacle Race - 'very hard to assess form' as Bertie Wooster said.
One might add that an additional difficulty is that the race course officials and pool of voters include a large number of completely mad people.
Does he think people are stupid?
You're right - he says both. But it can't be both.
If they are looking to change pre-election (which I think is doubtful) it matters less. If the PM loses their seat, that's clearly embarrassing... but they'd have already lost the election heavily anyway. There is no major contender who could win the election but lose their seat.
Starmer gave specific examples of people made homeless by Tory law changes allowing easier evictions. An 11 year-old boy who asked Santa for a forever home so he can get his toys out of storage
Sunak responded by blaming Starmer for voting down the measure which would have allowed homes to be built.
Never mind that the issue is people being evicted and not how many homes are being built. Sunak said firstly that its his credit that so many houses have been built, then that it was Starmer's fault that houses haven't been built.
Again, it can't be both. Either all is sunny in Sunakland. Or all is shit and its the fault of Starmer / Drakeford. They need to choose a line and stick to it.
Amongst Conservative 2019 voters: Do you have a positive or negative view of...
Nigel Farage: Positive 46%, Negative 28%, Net rating +18
Rishi Sunak: Positive 35%, Negative 39%, Net rating -3
https://x.com/jlpartnerspolls/status/1734701922995601785?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Change in Farage's ratings with Conservative 2019 voters before and after I'm a Celebrity, Get Me Out of Here!:
November 17th: Positive 37%, Negative 36%, Net rating +1
December 10th: Positive 46%, Negative 28%, Net rating +18
https://x.com/jlpartnerspolls/status/1734702641253384648?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Cameron, May, Johnson, Truss, Sunak."
A: "Farage."