The clamour for the Tories to roll out the red carpet for Farage will surely soon become irresistible. It's an almighty itch that just won't go away. I doubt it will ultimately do then any good, but they need to get it out of their system. It's kill or cure.
It’s one of those things that must have some small chance of happening, but in my head I can’t even begin to consider it possible
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
Lab polling 42% having gained a seat in Senedd 2 years ago. It's a strong position to be standing down from.
You know how Sunak has put up taxes and increased mortgages in the real world? How does he think there are votes in insisting that he has cut taxes and decreased mortgages?
Does he think people are stupid?
You forget, all the economic green shoots are all Rishi's work undoing all of Starmer's chaos. He explains this every week at PMQs
I'm confused. My £250 a month increase in my mortgage. Is that actually a reduction actually? Or is it actually Starmer's fault?
You're right - he says both. But it can't be both.
I am out of the country and had to rely on the Guardian synopsis. But it does look like Rishi is getting cross with Starmer for the mess the country is in.
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
Lab polling 42% having gained a seat in Senedd 2 years ago. It's a strong position to be standing down from.
Getting the replacement right will be important for the GE I think. Ideally someone who can represent some sort of fresh break from Drakeford and able to distance themselves from some of the less popular bits of his reign, without undermining the Labour track record by overly dissing him.
The clamour for the Tories to roll out the red carpet for Farage will surely soon become irresistible. It's an almighty itch that just won't go away. I doubt it will ultimately do then any good, but they need to get it out of their system. It's kill or cure.
It’s one of those things that must have some small chance of happening, but in my head I can’t even begin to consider it possible
I think Farage could be persuaded. Deep down he must dislike his reputation as a political gadfly who's never run anything. He'll want to prove that he can do things better than the people he's always criticizing. Would the Tories have him? A number of Rishi's likely successors would be very amenable I'd have thought.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Disagree on all three, not strongly, but think 1 is decent odds against, 2 is pretty uncertain and volatile, and 3 only applies with the parliamentary party, within the Tory members, donors and media the post fascists or whatever they should be called are dominant, and I expect Farage as leader within 4 years.
Nigel Farage will need to become a Conservative MP before he can become leader, which in practice means he will need to join the party and its candidate list (subject to leader's veto) and be chosen for a safe seat before the next election which may be as soon as next spring.
Same for Boris (at least the candidate part).
All those hoping for Boris or Farage need to keep an eye on the calendar. If nothing happens soon, it won't happen.
I suspect it will be more like:
2024 GE Crushing defeat 2024/5 New populist leader takes over and woos Farage 2025-6 Random By Election 2027/8 Farage defenestrates leader silly enough to woo him in
As the relative sizes of the groupings in the Tory party showed this week, I don't see Farage getting anywhere near the leadership. The far-right (an awful term really, the ERG are NOT Nazis, despite what some social media warriors claim) are not that numerous, and many will likely be lost at the election.
He just needs to get second-place among the MPS, of which there are going to be a lot fewer than at present.
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
But his legacy will be quite something. 20mph limits will now be rolled out across Scotland by 2025. English local councils everywhere are all following His example - Birmingham, Oxford, London, Cornwall, the Wirral, Lancashire, Southampton.
Drakeford going reminded me of Sunak's testimony on Monday about the devolved nations. To me it showed why devolution is an utter failure. The leaders of the devolved nations see themselves as just that - leaders of their nations. And yet when covid hit they wanted the UK government to give them a blank cheque to pay their citizens to isolate or go on furlough etc. As Sunak pointed out, firstly money was provided (ahead of Barnett consequentials) and that the devolved nations have tax raising powers - they could have raised the money themselves. What they cannot do, I think, is borrow, in the way the the UK government can.
Ultimately devolution allows nations to be half way to independent, but with restrictions on what they can do, but also with a huge safety net. As a survey I saw on PB showed this week, SNP voters believe that Scots pay more into the pot than they get out, and this is wrong. An independent Scotland would be worse off than it is now.
I can't see devolution being reversed, so maybe its time for English folk (or volk) to push the Scots and Welsh to independence for the good of the English...
There's a lot of truth in this. It's easy to complain without full responsibility.
And from the little I know, it's not like Welsh hospitals or Scottish schools are miles better... I did get a sense that Wales and Scotland did a little better on their covid response, but not a huge amount in it.
I'd still oppose independence instinctively, it's just so much work and disruption for what? But if the Welsh or Scots want to go for it, good luck to them.
Drakeford has resigned at a time when both he and labour in Wales see falling polling and his 20mph scheme remains as unpopular as ever
ITV Wales/YouGov
Mark Drakeford's popularity with the Welsh public is at an 18-month low as more than half of respondents (56%) believe he is doing a bad job of being First Minister.
But the polling shows the Conservative leaders are also not looked upon favourably - with the majority (69%) of those polled stating Prime Minister Rishi Sunak isn't doing a good job either.
The PM hasn't proven to be a popular figure in Wales all year - back in May the majority were unimpressed with his performance - and as 2023 closes even fewer people have faith in his ability, with just 19% stating Mr Sunak is doing well.
The latest poll shows a steady decline in Mark Drakeford's popularity over time. Back in September last year, the majority (54%) of voters believed the Welsh Labour leader was doing a good job as FM, with 35% unimpressed with his premiership.
Now, the majority of Welsh voters (56%) have lost faith in his ability as First Minister, with just 31% believing he is still doing a good job of running the country.
We asked: How well or badly do you think Mark Drakeford is doing as the First Minister of Wales?
31% Doing well
56% Doing badly
13% Don't know
But his legacy will be quite something. 20mph limits will now be rolled out across Scotland by 2025. English local councils everywhere are all following His example - Birmingham, Oxford, London, Cornwall, the Wirral, Lancashire, Southampton.
EngDrakeland.
There's no umbrella 20 mph limit in either Oxford City or Oxfordshire. In both the policy is that residents or town/parish councils may lobby to reduce an existing 30 mph limit, and the County reviews the pitch for local support and practicality.
It is an absurd claim this is his legacy. my estate has been 20 MPH for 15 years. Other estates by me are. There are plenty of 20 MPH limits around in England and in Scotland. There is not even an umbrella 20MPH limit in Wales.
Perhaps the hapless Drakeford followed the lead of Scotland or Durham or other parts of the country and has run to the front to shout "follow me".
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
If the election is after May of next year any of those positives do happen for the Tories they will be undone by the slaughter in the May locals.
Although October is picked as the most likely date for a GE, May has the advantage for the Tories of stopping that bit of bad news.
May doesn't give time for immigration numbers to come down and Sunak won't care about saving a few Tory councillors due to higher Tory local election turnout if he is still miles behind in pre May polls. He will want to maximise his chance of turning things around or at least his time in office
While not disagreeing with your analysis and if he is still a long way behind in the polls he may well leave it until October as most people think i.e. to maximise his chance of turning things around and/or maximising his time in office.
However I wasn't making my statement about saving a few Tory councillors. It won't and as you say this is not the main priority. The point is the Tories will be defending gains at this set of locals so will probably lose a lot of seats and that results in really bad headlines. If it is really bad there might even be calls for a leadership change which is the last thing the Tories need just prior to an election.
The only benefit in going for May is to stop the almost certain bad headlines and consequential knock on effect in the media after the locals. Otherwise I agree with you that it will be later.
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
Disagree on all three, not strongly, but think 1 is decent odds against, 2 is pretty uncertain and volatile, and 3 only applies with the parliamentary party, within the Tory members, donors and media the post fascists or whatever they should be called are dominant, and I expect Farage as leader within 4 years.
Nigel Farage will need to become a Conservative MP before he can become leader, which in practice means he will need to join the party and its candidate list (subject to leader's veto) and be chosen for a safe seat before the next election which may be as soon as next spring.
Same for Boris (at least the candidate part).
All those hoping for Boris or Farage need to keep an eye on the calendar. If nothing happens soon, it won't happen.
I suspect it will be more like:
2024 GE Crushing defeat 2024/5 New populist leader takes over and woos Farage 2025-6 Random By Election 2027/8 Farage defenestrates leader silly enough to woo him in
As the relative sizes of the groupings in the Tory party showed this week, I don't see Farage getting anywhere near the leadership. The far-right (an awful term really, the ERG are NOT Nazis, despite what some social media warriors claim) are not that numerous, and many will likely be lost at the election.
He just needs to get second-place among the MPS, of which there are going to be a lot fewer than at present.
The fact that someone who is not even a member of the Conservative Party is being seriously discussed as its possible next leader speaks volumes - about the Conservative Party.
"What's worse? Losing your WhatsApp messages as a tech bro, losing £11bn as Chancellor, presiding over the biggest drop in living standards in history, or clinging on to power, when you're more unpopular than Boris Johnson?"
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
If the election is after May of next year any of those positives do happen for the Tories they will be undone by the slaughter in the May locals.
Although October is picked as the most likely date for a GE, May has the advantage for the Tories of stopping that bit of bad news.
May doesn't give time for immigration numbers to come down and Sunak won't care about saving a few Tory councillors due to higher Tory local election turnout if he is still miles behind in pre May polls. He will want to maximise his chance of turning things around or at least his time in office
While not disagreeing with your analysis and if he is still a long way behind in the polls he may well leave it until October as most people think i.e. to maximise his chance of turning things around and/or maximising his time in office.
However I wasn't making my statement about saving a few Tory councillors. It won't and as you say this is not the main priority. The point is the Tories will be defending gains at this set of locals so will probably lose a lot of seats and that results in really bad headlines. If it is really bad there might even be calls for a leadership change which is the last thing the Tories need just prior to an election.
The only benefit in going for May is to stop the almost certain bad headlines and consequential knock on effect in the media after the locals. Otherwise I agree with you that it will be later.
As I said earlier there is a lot of forthcoming bad news (local Government’s general bankruptcy due to social care costs, the collapse of school budgets, the collapse of universities to name 3 which will be very obvious from June onwards next year.
So I can see why Rishi may wish to delay to October but I suspect it would be wiser to go early.
Come October it’s very possible that Rishi will be fighting to keep 100 seats.
"What's worse? Losing your WhatsApp messages as a tech bro, losing £11bn as Chancellor, presiding over the biggest drop in living standards in history, or clinging on to power, when you're more unpopular than Boris Johnson?"
So, while 2019 Tories are in favour, not much of the rest are.
2019 Tories are the material of a landslide - most of the rest of them voted for Corbyn or Bollocks to Brexit, so Farage is unlikely to be their cup of tea
"What's worse? Losing your WhatsApp messages as a tech bro, losing £11bn as Chancellor, presiding over the biggest drop in living standards in history, or clinging on to power, when you're more unpopular than Boris Johnson?"
Travelling to the Lakes after a successful work trip. And, once again, my connecting train is cancelled. So what should have been a swift, one change only journey will turn into a day-long, god knows how many changes marathon.
This has happened on the last 3 journeys.
There's a man behind me in the queue for coffee who looks very like Lord Sumption. It isn't of course. And this isn't much of an anecdote. But there you go - Britain today.
I was going to suggest that @Leon visit the West Cumbria coast but perhaps today is not the day.
Still, here is are some photos to whet his appetite -
1. There will almost certainly be deportations to Rwanda this side of a general election.
2. That, along with tax cuts in early 2024, will drive something of a Tory comeback. Labour minority or small majority looks like a much better bet than Labour landslide.
3. The post-fascist Tory far-right is nowhere near as powerful as they and the media have led us to believe. There is a very low likelihood of the Braverman/Jenrick branch of the PCP providing the party's next leader. If 1 and 2 do happen, Cleverley is surely likeliest to succeed Sunak.
If the election is after May of next year any of those positives do happen for the Tories they will be undone by the slaughter in the May locals.
Although October is picked as the most likely date for a GE, May has the advantage for the Tories of stopping that bit of bad news.
May doesn't give time for immigration numbers to come down and Sunak won't care about saving a few Tory councillors due to higher Tory local election turnout if he is still miles behind in pre May polls. He will want to maximise his chance of turning things around or at least his time in office
While not disagreeing with your analysis and if he is still a long way behind in the polls he may well leave it until October as most people think i.e. to maximise his chance of turning things around and/or maximising his time in office.
However I wasn't making my statement about saving a few Tory councillors. It won't and as you say this is not the main priority. The point is the Tories will be defending gains at this set of locals so will probably lose a lot of seats and that results in really bad headlines. If it is really bad there might even be calls for a leadership change which is the last thing the Tories need just prior to an election.
The only benefit in going for May is to stop the almost certain bad headlines and consequential knock on effect in the media after the locals. Otherwise I agree with you that it will be later.
As I said earlier there is a lot of forthcoming bad news (local Government’s general bankruptcy due to social care costs, the collapse of school budgets, the collapse of universities to name 3 which will be very obvious from June onwards next year.
So I can see why Rishi may wish to delay to October but I suspect it would be wiser to go early.
Come October it’s very possible that Rishi will be fighting to keep 100 seats.
People need to factor in the probability - given that he's such a genius - that Rishi will be snapped up by a multinational as soon as he's out of office, and may be able to earn as much as half a billion a year.
Travelling to the Lakes after a successful work trip. And, once again, my connecting train is cancelled. So what should have been a swift, one change only journey will turn into a day-long, god knows how many changes marathon.
This has happened on the last 3 journeys.
There's a man behind me in the queue for coffee who looks very like Lord Sumption. It isn't of course. And this isn't much of an anecdote. But there you go - Britain today.
I was going to suggest that @Leon visit the West Cumbria coast but perhaps today is not the day.
Still, here is are some photos to whet his appetite -
I used Transpennine Express for the first time in a while recently. Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).
Travelling to the Lakes after a successful work trip. And, once again, my connecting train is cancelled. So what should have been a swift, one change only journey will turn into a day-long, god knows how many changes marathon.
This has happened on the last 3 journeys.
There's a man behind me in the queue for coffee who looks very like Lord Sumption. It isn't of course. And this isn't much of an anecdote. But there you go - Britain today.
I was going to suggest that @Leon visit the West Cumbria coast but perhaps today is not the day.
Still, here is are some photos to whet his appetite -
I used Transpennine Express for the first time in a while recently. Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).
It will be the last time in a while.
My lifelong Conservative party member mother took her Christmas parcels to the post office in Romsey the other day, only to have to return home with them. The post Office was closed on Saturday morning 2 weeks before Christmas as "no staff available".
Mum not impressed "nothing works in this country any more" she told me on the phone.
Travelling to the Lakes after a successful work trip. And, once again, my connecting train is cancelled. So what should have been a swift, one change only journey will turn into a day-long, god knows how many changes marathon.
This has happened on the last 3 journeys.
There's a man behind me in the queue for coffee who looks very like Lord Sumption. It isn't of course. And this isn't much of an anecdote. But there you go - Britain today.
I was going to suggest that @Leon visit the West Cumbria coast but perhaps today is not the day.
Still, here is are some photos to whet his appetite -
I used Transpennine Express for the first time in a while recently. Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).
It will be the last time in a while.
My lifelong Conservative party member mother took her Christmas parcels to the post office in Romsey the other day, only to have to return home with them. The post Office was closed on Saturday morning 2 weeks before Christmas as "no staff available".
Mum not impressed "nothing works in this country any more" she told me on the phone.
Fear not, soon she will be able to vote for change candidate Rishi Sunak who will undo the last decade of Labour decline.
Travelling to the Lakes after a successful work trip. And, once again, my connecting train is cancelled. So what should have been a swift, one change only journey will turn into a day-long, god knows how many changes marathon.
This has happened on the last 3 journeys.
There's a man behind me in the queue for coffee who looks very like Lord Sumption. It isn't of course. And this isn't much of an anecdote. But there you go - Britain today.
I was going to suggest that @Leon visit the West Cumbria coast but perhaps today is not the day.
Still, here is are some photos to whet his appetite -
I used Transpennine Express for the first time in a while recently. Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).
It will be the last time in a while.
My lifelong Conservative party member mother took her Christmas parcels to the post office in Romsey the other day, only to have to return home with them. The post Office was closed on Saturday morning 2 weeks before Christmas as "no staff available".
Mum not impressed "nothing works in this country any more" she told me on the phone.
Fear not, soon she will be able to vote for change candidate Rishi Sunak who will undo the last decade of Labour decline.
He's already undone quite a bit of the last decade of Labour decline.
Just a reminder - Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa 21st to 25th October 2024.
King Charles touring Australia and New Zealand before the meeting.
So Oct 17th, 24th, 31st, Nov 7th all out as possible dates for GE.
Charles has to be here to appoint new PM and no way Sunak could go all that way mid campaign.
Oct 10th also probably out - depending on Charles departure date.
Even Nov 14th doubtful - would mean Sunak going to Samoa early in campaign.
I still reckon May.
Mostly because the advantage of staying PM for longer is outweighed by the risk of a summer defenestration.
I have a feeling you are right. I would prefer May personally. We cannot drift on like we are currently.
During the Brown long twilight, Matthew Parris (yes, I know...) pointed out that when we say "it can't go on like this", we frequently do. Although I would prefer an election in May, I really wouldn't be surprised if it went to October or later ☹️
Just a reminder - Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa 21st to 25th October 2024.
King Charles touring Australia and New Zealand before the meeting.
So Oct 17th, 24th, 31st, Nov 7th all out as possible dates for GE.
Charles has to be here to appoint new PM and no way Sunak could go all that way mid campaign.
Oct 10th also probably out - depending on Charles departure date.
Even Nov 14th doubtful - would mean Sunak going to Samoa early in campaign.
I still reckon May.
Mostly because the advantage of staying PM for longer is outweighed by the risk of a summer defenestration.
I have a feeling you are right. I would prefer May personally. We cannot drift on like we are currently.
During the Brown long twilight, Matthew Parris (yes, I know...) pointed out that when we say "it can't go on like this", we frequently do. Although I would prefer an election in May, I really wouldn't be surprised if it went to October or later ☹️
It’s been like this since 2016 so of course we can keep going on this.
Just a reminder - Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa 21st to 25th October 2024.
King Charles touring Australia and New Zealand before the meeting.
So Oct 17th, 24th, 31st, Nov 7th all out as possible dates for GE.
Charles has to be here to appoint new PM and no way Sunak could go all that way mid campaign.
Oct 10th also probably out - depending on Charles departure date.
Even Nov 14th doubtful - would mean Sunak going to Samoa early in campaign.
I still reckon May.
Mostly because the advantage of staying PM for longer is outweighed by the risk of a summer defenestration.
How do you balance 1. Likely bad defeat in May 2. Things might get better if something turns up 3. Things will probably get worse?
Not easy.
Oh, and well done for the bank puns, everyone. The co-operative efforts made me smile.
There is one hope for them, I think. It seems to be getting picked up in the polling with growing support for minor parties. And that’s the “plague on all their houses” attitude.
Populist governments through history have successfully managed to get the public to believe that all politicians are mendacious, corrupt, incompetent. So you might as well stick with the devil you know. The Tories seem to be having a measure of success in doing that, aided and abetted somewhat by Labour not really being on the front foot. The current turmoil in the SNP probably helps with this impression too.
If Rishi can engineer a “they’re all as bad as each other” election then he may not win, but he could trim Labour’s margin of victory. I’d say this was a significant factor in 2010 after the expenses scandal, manifesting in the Cleggasm.
Just a reminder - Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa 21st to 25th October 2024.
King Charles touring Australia and New Zealand before the meeting.
So Oct 17th, 24th, 31st, Nov 7th all out as possible dates for GE.
Charles has to be here to appoint new PM and no way Sunak could go all that way mid campaign.
Oct 10th also probably out - depending on Charles departure date.
Even Nov 14th doubtful - would mean Sunak going to Samoa early in campaign.
I still reckon May.
Mostly because the advantage of staying PM for longer is outweighed by the risk of a summer defenestration.
I have a feeling you are right. I would prefer May personally. We cannot drift on like we are currently.
It's going to be May. Let's get it over with!
CON can look forward to sitting with their friends LD and SNP on the opposition benches for a while and hopefully regroup and find their way again, returning to proper CON principles.
So, while 2019 Tories are in favour, not much of the rest are.
Any polling details from them? I know you're not supposed to criticise pollsters on here but after seeing the details of their focus groups I'd make a exception for JL Partners
Just a reminder - Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa 21st to 25th October 2024.
King Charles touring Australia and New Zealand before the meeting.
So Oct 17th, 24th, 31st, Nov 7th all out as possible dates for GE.
Charles has to be here to appoint new PM and no way Sunak could go all that way mid campaign.
Oct 10th also probably out - depending on Charles departure date.
Even Nov 14th doubtful - would mean Sunak going to Samoa early in campaign.
I still reckon May.
Mostly because the advantage of staying PM for longer is outweighed by the risk of a summer defenestration.
I have a feeling you are right. I would prefer May personally. We cannot drift on like we are currently.
During the Brown long twilight, Matthew Parris (yes, I know...) pointed out that when we say "it can't go on like this", we frequently do. Although I would prefer an election in May, I really wouldn't be surprised if it went to October or later ☹️
Sunak surely planning to use Party Conference as launch pad for election. Thus October/November for polling day.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.
We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
Just a reminder - Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Samoa 21st to 25th October 2024.
King Charles touring Australia and New Zealand before the meeting.
So Oct 17th, 24th, 31st, Nov 7th all out as possible dates for GE.
Charles has to be here to appoint new PM and no way Sunak could go all that way mid campaign.
Oct 10th also probably out - depending on Charles departure date.
Even Nov 14th doubtful - would mean Sunak going to Samoa early in campaign.
I still reckon May.
Mostly because the advantage of staying PM for longer is outweighed by the risk of a summer defenestration.
I have a feeling you are right. I would prefer May personally. We cannot drift on like we are currently.
It's going to be May. Let's get it over with!
CON can look forward to sitting with their friends LD and SNP on the opposition benches for a while and hopefully regroup and find their way again, returning to proper CON principles.
Regardless of policy, I hope that principles can be amongst the principles they return to. Never before have we had mendacious lying shithousery on the level we have had since 2019.
So, while 2019 Tories are in favour, not much of the rest are.
Any polling details from them? I know you're not supposed to criticise pollsters on here but after seeing the details of their focus groups I'd make a exception for JL Partners
Whenever I see something from them I can’t help thinking it’s a poll from John Lewis and partners. Never knowingly underpolled.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.
We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
That sounds dystopianly French. I wonder what it implies for the broader London economy.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.
We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
This is the problem with the way schools are funded. Keeping schools open with all teachers as rolls dropped would mean smaller class sizes like in the private sector and better education. And inevitably closed schools will be turned into flats which means more children so more schools will be needed but...
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.
We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
That sounds dystopianly French. I wonder what it implies for the broader London economy.
Yes. It’s Parisification. Was predicted when the benefits cap was introduced, and sure enough it’s happening. Social cleansing.
The one thing that saves us from full on Parisification is that prices are so high, the middle class are also leaving. So those flight areas, even the likes of Thamesmead, are gentrifying rather than becoming banlieue
Travelling to the Lakes after a successful work trip. And, once again, my connecting train is cancelled. So what should have been a swift, one change only journey will turn into a day-long, god knows how many changes marathon.
This has happened on the last 3 journeys.
There's a man behind me in the queue for coffee who looks very like Lord Sumption. It isn't of course. And this isn't much of an anecdote. But there you go - Britain today.
I was going to suggest that @Leon visit the West Cumbria coast but perhaps today is not the day.
Still, here is are some photos to whet his appetite -
I used Transpennine Express for the first time in a while recently. Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).
It will be the last time in a while.
TPE should be cancelling fewer trains in future. This is because since the timetable change on Sunday they are planning to run fewer trains in the first place.
But, to be fair, you can't blame them for a broken rail.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.
We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
This is the problem with the way schools are funded. Keeping schools open with all teachers as rolls dropped would mean smaller class sizes like in the private sector and better education. And inevitably closed schools will be turned into flats which means more children so more schools will be needed but...
Off topic, I read your post yesterday that you were jobless for twenty years and then went on to do twenty years in a particular job.
Model railway *not* part of the fixtures and fittings, though.
'The home features a full-size football pitch and, until recently, housed Stewart’s cherished epic train set, entitled Grand Street and Three Rivers City and modelled on US railroads. “It took me 23 years to build,” he said in 2021. “It’s 60ft long by 25ft wide. Bigger than most people’s houses. It’s taken seven months to move [to the UK].”'
I know 4 schools closing in Hackney (and more in Camden) is not a very big story.
But I find it disquieting.
Who and what are our cities for?
Schools are closing and merging everywhere. The (largely) migrant inspired spike in the birth rate after 2004 which ended years of decline has gone through the system and the decline in births since the pandemic now means we have too much capacity for the numbers of children.
School sites are often well suited to residential redevelopment and obviously we can't just mothball land and buildinbgs in case the birth rate picks up again one day...
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Isn’t Hackney now becoming more of a middle class, white single professionals place? The immigrants, who tend to have more children might be moving to outer London, there is certainly movement from the east End to Havering, and it’s not ‘white flight’
'But sources close to Craik, who was first elected as a councillor in 2012 and is now the second most senior councillor in Fife’s Labour-led administration, suggested he had stepped aside because the party had raised issues about the content and themes of the occult horror books that he writes as a hobby.'
Bit shite for the poor chap.
Wonder if it's Slab or Labour GHQ in London which is the problem? He's not had any trouble at all before, which makes me wonder.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Isn’t Hackney now becoming more of a middle class, white single professionals place? The immigrants, who tend to have more children might be moving to outer London, there is certainly movement from the east End to Havering, and it’s not ‘white flight’
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Isn’t Hackney now becoming more of a middle class, white single professionals place? The immigrants, who tend to have more children might be moving to outer London, there is certainly movement from the east End to Havering, and it’s not ‘white flight’
'But sources close to Craik, who was first elected as a councillor in 2012 and is now the second most senior councillor in Fife’s Labour-led administration, suggested he had stepped aside because the party had raised issues about the content and themes of the occult horror books that he writes as a hobby.'
Bit shite for the poor chap.
Wonder if it's Slab or Labour GHQ in London which is the problem? He's not had any trouble at all before, which makes me wonder.
Wouldn't be the first politician to write fiction which some disapproved of. Altany Craik sounds very much like the made-up pen name of a writer of sexy and satanic stories.
I know 4 schools closing in Hackney (and more in Camden) is not a very big story.
But I find it disquieting.
Who and what are our cities for?
Right now, a combination of the rich (who can afford current prices) and old (who bought when it was cheaper). It's pretty much the same in my Zone 6 suburb. And that doesn't make for a good society.
Wonder what the ratio of internal migration to reduced birth rate is in driving these closures? UK wide, we're over ten percent down on the number of births in 2010ish. That feels like a pretty morbid sign. Some of it is the benefit cap doing what it was always going to do (including scaring people off having children, just in case), but also who can afford to have lots of kids?
If the UK was preparing to wind itself down, with the last person turning out the lights in 2070 or so, how would it look different to what we're currently seeing?
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Isn’t Hackney now becoming more of a middle class, white single professionals place? The immigrants, who tend to have more children might be moving to outer London, there is certainly movement from the east End to Havering, and it’s not ‘white flight’
I know 4 schools closing in Hackney (and more in Camden) is not a very big story.
But I find it disquieting.
Who and what are our cities for?
Schools are closing and merging everywhere. The (largely) migrant inspired spike in the birth rate after 2004 which ended years of decline has gone through the system and the decline in births since the pandemic now means we have too much capacity for the numbers of children.
School sites are often well suited to residential redevelopment and obviously we can't just mothball land and buildinbgs in case the birth rate picks up again one day...
I'm sure Stodge meant this, but note that this is very much a London issue. Schools in Trafford are absolutely packed to the ginnels and there is no element of choice whatsoever: you get what you're given.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Isn’t Hackney now becoming more of a middle class, white single professionals place? The immigrants, who tend to have more children might be moving to outer London, there is certainly movement from the east End to Havering, and it’s not ‘white flight’
Poor economic data just released . At this rate the BOE will be cutting interest rates sooner rather than later .
I think that the Bank is more obsessed with inflation than the government. They will resist a cut until inflation is a lot nearer target, probably end of Q2 next year.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Isn’t Hackney now becoming more of a middle class, white single professionals place? The immigrants, who tend to have more children might be moving to outer London, there is certainly movement from the east End to Havering, and it’s not ‘white flight’
'But sources close to Craik, who was first elected as a councillor in 2012 and is now the second most senior councillor in Fife’s Labour-led administration, suggested he had stepped aside because the party had raised issues about the content and themes of the occult horror books that he writes as a hobby.'
Bit shite for the poor chap.
Wonder if it's Slab or Labour GHQ in London which is the problem? He's not had any trouble at all before, which makes me wonder.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.
We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
That sounds dystopianly French. I wonder what it implies for the broader London economy.
The benefit cap seems fair enough to me. Why should the rest of the country pay taxes to prop up London rents? Doesn't seem a massively sensible use of public funds.
Without this propping up, there is a natural upper limit to the extent to which one city can be massively richer and more expensive than the rest of it.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Isn’t Hackney now becoming more of a middle class, white single professionals place? The immigrants, who tend to have more children might be moving to outer London, there is certainly movement from the east End to Havering, and it’s not ‘white flight’
'But sources close to Craik, who was first elected as a councillor in 2012 and is now the second most senior councillor in Fife’s Labour-led administration, suggested he had stepped aside because the party had raised issues about the content and themes of the occult horror books that he writes as a hobby.'
Bit shite for the poor chap.
Wonder if it's Slab or Labour GHQ in London which is the problem? He's not had any trouble at all before, which makes me wonder.
Wouldn't be the first politician to write fiction which some disapproved of. Altany Craik sounds very much like the made-up pen name of a writer of sexy and satanic stories.
Mr Disraeli!!
Craik is a perfectly normal Scots name - a variant of Craig (cf. southern Rock). Altany is also a Scots name though not nearly so common.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.
We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
This is the problem with the way schools are funded. Keeping schools open with all teachers as rolls dropped would mean smaller class sizes like in the private sector and better education. And inevitably closed schools will be turned into flats which means more children so more schools will be needed but...
Off topic, I read your post yesterday that you were jobless for twenty years and then went on to do twenty years in a particular job.
Really interesting story, and kind of admirable.
Just went to find that and saw the thread on luck.
Yes, so much is down to luck. To take two examples from my life:
I met my wife only because my PhD had overrun and I was so snowed under that I was late filing the extension request, which - if submitted on time - would have resulted in me being kicked out of my office to one of the grim over-end-of-PhD hotdesking offices. As I was late to submit, they'd already sorted office space and I was left where I was. Then my (now) wife arrived to start her PhD in the same office.
I'm in my current line of work only because, having just submitted my PhD thesis and desperately needing money, a friend of mine mentioned that his dad, who worked for the NHS and collaborated with a local uni, needed someone to switch an old FoxPro research data handling system to R and SQL. I knew R and bluffed SQL and got the zero-hours post, which turned after 3-4 months into an offer of a post-doc and so I started my switch from x-ray physics to epidemiology.
Without those two pieces of luck, I'd be somewhere else, with someone else (or alone!), doing something completely different.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Isn’t Hackney now becoming more of a middle class, white single professionals place? The immigrants, who tend to have more children might be moving to outer London, there is certainly movement from the east End to Havering, and it’s not ‘white flight’
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.
We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
That sounds dystopianly French. I wonder what it implies for the broader London economy.
The benefit cap seems fair enough to me. Why should the rest of the country pay taxes to prop up London rents? Doesn't seem a massively sensible use of public funds.
Without this propping up, there is a natural upper limit to the extent to which one city can be massively richer and more expensive than the rest of it.
I broadly agree with this, but recall too that nowhere is building enough housing to meet demand.
I think London is already beyond the point where it is able to provide a sustainable housing offer for current and future growth earners.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Our local primary classes have been shrinking too. Unfortunately not by enough to allow them to reduce staff headcount, so the cost per pupil has gone up by more than their funding.
We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
This is the problem with the way schools are funded. Keeping schools open with all teachers as rolls dropped would mean smaller class sizes like in the private sector and better education. And inevitably closed schools will be turned into flats which means more children so more schools will be needed but...
Off topic, I read your post yesterday that you were jobless for twenty years and then went on to do twenty years in a particular job.
I know 4 schools closing in Hackney (and more in Camden) is not a very big story.
But I find it disquieting.
Who and what are our cities for?
Right now, a combination of the rich (who can afford current prices) and old (who bought when it was cheaper). It's pretty much the same in my Zone 6 suburb. And that doesn't make for a good society.
Wonder what the ratio of internal migration to reduced birth rate is in driving these closures? UK wide, we're over ten percent down on the number of births in 2010ish. That feels like a pretty morbid sign. Some of it is the benefit cap doing what it was always going to do (including scaring people off having children, just in case), but also who can afford to have lots of kids?
If the UK was preparing to wind itself down, with the last person turning out the lights in 2070 or so, how would it look different to what we're currently seeing?
Taking it literally we would be exporting our old people rather than importing younger people to look after them.
Hackney Council have just announced the closure of 4 primary schools due to shrinking rolls.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Isn’t Hackney now becoming more of a middle class, white single professionals place? The immigrants, who tend to have more children might be moving to outer London, there is certainly movement from the east End to Havering, and it’s not ‘white flight’
AP (via Seattle Times) - Tesla recalls nearly all vehicles sold in US to fix system that monitors drivers using Autopilot
Tesla is recalling nearly all vehicles sold in the U.S., more than 2 million, to update software and fix a defective system that’s supposed to ensure drivers are paying attention when using Autopilot.
Documents posted Wednesday by U.S. safety regulators say the update will increase warnings and alerts to drivers and even limit the areas where basic versions of Autopilot can operate.
The recall comes after a two-year investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration into a series of crashes that happened while the Autopilot partially automated driving system was in use. Some were deadly.
The agency says its investigation found Autopilot’s method of making sure that drivers are paying attention can be inadequate and can lead to “foreseeable misuse of the system.”
The added controls and alerts will “further encourage the driver to adhere to their continuous driving responsibility,” the documents said.
But safety experts said while the recall is a good step, it still makes the driver responsible and doesn’t fix the underlying problem that Tesla’s automated systems have trouble spotting and stopping for obstacles in their path. . . .
In its defect report filed with the safety agency, Tesla said Autopilot’s controls “may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse.” . . .
SSI - Getta load of the "driver misuse" excuse. MusXmelons please explain?
"Recall". They are doing an over the air software update. Much better than your usual recall where they say "whoops that part will crash your car or set in on fire, we've been forced to change it, please wait x months until we give you a time slot to come to the dealership and wait for us to fix it"
Travelling to the Lakes after a successful work trip. And, once again, my connecting train is cancelled. So what should have been a swift, one change only journey will turn into a day-long, god knows how many changes marathon.
This has happened on the last 3 journeys.
There's a man behind me in the queue for coffee who looks very like Lord Sumption. It isn't of course. And this isn't much of an anecdote. But there you go - Britain today.
I was going to suggest that @Leon visit the West Cumbria coast but perhaps today is not the day.
Still, here is are some photos to whet his appetite -
I used Transpennine Express for the first time in a while recently. Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).
It will be the last time in a while.
Travelling by train in the north of England should of course be avoided by anyone wanting to get to work or make a serious journey. It's OK for older people with time on their hands and can choose their times and have no deadlines. A bit ago I travelled to York from Carlisle, and back a couple of days later. I was able to allow all day for this short journey, both directions, which was good as each way took 6 hours. (Under 2 1/2 hours by car). So if you can look on it as more or less equivalent to an adventure crossing the Gobi desert on wild Bactrian camels it's fine, but take a good book.
Travelling to the Lakes after a successful work trip. And, once again, my connecting train is cancelled. So what should have been a swift, one change only journey will turn into a day-long, god knows how many changes marathon.
This has happened on the last 3 journeys.
There's a man behind me in the queue for coffee who looks very like Lord Sumption. It isn't of course. And this isn't much of an anecdote. But there you go - Britain today.
I was going to suggest that @Leon visit the West Cumbria coast but perhaps today is not the day.
Still, here is are some photos to whet his appetite -
I used Transpennine Express for the first time in a while recently. Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).
It will be the last time in a while.
Travelling by train in the north of England should of course be avoided by anyone wanting to get to work or make a serious journey. It's OK for older people with time on their hands and can choose their times and have no deadlines. A bit ago I travelled to York from Carlisle, and back a couple of days later. I was able to allow all day for this short journey, both directions, which was good as each way took 6 hours. (Under 2 1/2 hours by car). So if you can look on it as more or less equivalent to an adventure crossing the Gobi desert on wild Bactrian camels it's fine, but take a good book.
That last line made me laugh out loud, which is not something many people do in the waiting room at Barra .......
"Recall". They are doing an over the air software update. Much better than your usual recall where they say "whoops that part will crash your car or set in on fire, we've been forced to change it, please wait x months until we give you a time slot to come to the dealership and wait for us to fix it"
The problem is the real 'recall' might be to actually bring all the cars in and fit them with LIDAR and other sensors/processing systems. Tesla are gambling a great deal on the idea that their existing hardware will be able to fulfil the technical debt they've taken on.
Sorry but I'm not seeing this stroppiness at all. If anything he seems bizarrely tiggerish (in public) in spite of everything. Could he be deemed a little tone deaf? Yes but the reality is that day after day he is being asked to make decisions that affect thousands or indeed millions of people. Individual anecdotes are no basis for doing that even if more experienced politicians are better versed in responding to them. Still it sees as though there is a certain Rishi derangement syndrome. I find it hard to understand how people who weren't irked by Cameron nonetheless get really irate with Sunak. Perhaps it's his size, I say this as someone who was the smallest kid in the class, though I assumed people grew out of that one. The billionaire wife? I mean why would she choose someone like him? Pure luck I presume on his part. Same reason he was Head Boy at Winchester, got a first at Oxford and a Fullbright scholarship. Pure luck.
I would hate to say it's to do with the colour of his skin but I have to wonder. Is a non-white person choosing the Tories an act of betrayal?
Comments
November 17th: Positive 20%, Negative 54%, Net rating -34
December 10th: Positive 22%, Negative 51%, Net rating -29
https://twitter.com/JLPartnersPolls/status/1734703471905939599?t=l8LYQOuEMrCQohiDU4wpxg&s=19
So, while 2019 Tories are in favour, not much of the rest are.
Perhaps the hapless Drakeford followed the lead of Scotland or Durham or other parts of the country and has run to the front to shout "follow me".
However I wasn't making my statement about saving a few Tory councillors. It won't and as you say this is not the main priority. The point is the Tories will be defending gains at this set of locals so will probably lose a lot of seats and that results in really bad headlines. If it is really bad there might even be calls for a leadership change which is the last thing the Tories need just prior to an election.
The only benefit in going for May is to stop the almost certain bad headlines and consequential knock on effect in the media after the locals. Otherwise I agree with you that it will be later.
@RhonddaBryant
.
"What's worse? Losing your WhatsApp messages as a tech bro, losing £11bn as Chancellor, presiding over the biggest drop in living standards in history, or clinging on to power, when you're more unpopular than Boris Johnson?"
So I can see why Rishi may wish to delay to October but I suspect it would be wiser to go early.
Come October it’s very possible that Rishi will be fighting to keep 100 seats.
King Charles touring Australia and New Zealand before the meeting.
So Oct 17th, 24th, 31st, Nov 7th all out as possible dates for GE.
Charles has to be here to appoint new PM and no way Sunak could go all that way mid campaign.
Oct 10th also probably out - depending on Charles departure date.
Even Nov 14th doubtful - would mean Sunak going to Samoa early in campaign.
This has happened on the last 3 journeys.
There's a man behind me in the queue for coffee who looks very like Lord Sumption. It isn't of course. And this isn't much of an anecdote. But there you go - Britain today.
I was going to suggest that @Leon visit the West Cumbria coast but perhaps today is not the day.
Still, here is are some photos to whet his appetite -
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/cop28-deal-is-significant-progress-for-those-who-want-to-tackle-the-climate-crisis/ar-AA1lqEzg?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=3b829863791e4b77803acf8b3d552d1d&ei=14
The Queen even appointed Truss two days before she died.
They surely have to have the photo of new PM shaking hands with Charles.
Mostly because the advantage of staying PM for longer is outweighed by the risk of a summer defenestration.
Bought ticket, waited for (delayed) train, boarded ... and disembarked three minutes later when they announced the service was cancelled (broken rail).
It will be the last time in a while.
Mum not impressed "nothing works in this country any more" she told me on the phone.
1. Likely bad defeat in May
2. Things might get better if something turns up
3. Things will probably get worse?
Not easy.
Oh, and well done for the bank puns, everyone. The co-operative efforts made me smile.
Where are all the immigrants going, if not to inner London boroughs?
Populist governments through history have successfully managed to get the public to believe that all politicians are mendacious, corrupt, incompetent. So you might as well stick with the devil you know. The Tories seem to be having a measure of success in doing that, aided and abetted somewhat by Labour not really being on the front foot. The current turmoil in the SNP probably helps with this impression too.
If Rishi can engineer a “they’re all as bad as each other” election then he may not win, but he could trim Labour’s margin of victory. I’d say this was a significant factor in 2010 after the expenses scandal, manifesting in the Cleggasm.
CON can look forward to sitting with their friends LD and SNP on the opposition benches for a while and hopefully regroup and find their way again, returning to proper CON principles.
We’ve lost a lot of white (and black) working class, a lot of that being due to housing costs - and the housing benefit cap. They’ve all left for Thamesmead and the estuary towns. What remains is noticeably more middle class than even 5 years ago.
two million cars over Autopilot defect
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-67693935
I wonder what it implies for the broader London economy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oeIPHK-NtEM
The one thing that saves us from full on Parisification is that prices are so high, the middle class are also leaving. So those flight areas, even the likes of Thamesmead, are gentrifying rather than becoming banlieue
But I find it disquieting.
Who and what are our cities for?
But, to be fair, you can't blame them for a broken rail.
Really interesting story, and kind of admirable.
And the weather looks gorgeous so I cannot wait to get home and breathe fresh air.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/dec/13/atlantic-crossing-rod-stewart-to-sell-up-la-mansion-and-move-back-to-uk
Model railway *not* part of the fixtures and fittings, though.
'The home features a full-size football pitch and, until recently, housed Stewart’s cherished epic train set, entitled Grand Street and Three Rivers City and modelled on US railroads. “It took me 23 years to build,” he said in 2021. “It’s 60ft long by 25ft wide. Bigger than most people’s houses. It’s taken seven months to move [to the UK].”'
School sites are often well suited to residential redevelopment and obviously we can't just mothball land and buildinbgs in case the birth rate picks up again one day...
'But sources close to Craik, who was first elected as a councillor in 2012 and is now the second most senior councillor in Fife’s Labour-led administration, suggested he had stepped aside because the party had raised issues about the content and themes of the occult horror books that he writes as a hobby.'
Bit shite for the poor chap.
Wonder if it's Slab or Labour GHQ in London which is the problem? He's not had any trouble at all before, which makes me wonder.
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/london-question-hackney-area-new-clapham-b1099085.html
Altany Craik sounds very much like the made-up pen name of a writer of sexy and satanic stories.
Wonder what the ratio of internal migration to reduced birth rate is in driving these closures? UK wide, we're over ten percent down on the number of births in 2010ish. That feels like a pretty morbid sign. Some of it is the benefit cap doing what it was always going to do (including scaring people off having children, just in case), but also who can afford to have lots of kids?
If the UK was preparing to wind itself down, with the last person turning out the lights in 2070 or so, how would it look different to what we're currently seeing?
I moved to Hackney (Shoreditch, to begin with) in 2000 and, by and large, lived in or v close until 2021 when I moved to New York.
Sad if it is to go the way of Clapham: a fate worse than death.
Good to hear the property market remains “bouyant”, though, even if from a selfish perspective.
Without this propping up, there is a natural upper limit to the extent to which one city can be massively richer and more expensive than the rest of it.
Craik is a perfectly normal Scots name - a variant of Craig (cf. southern Rock). Altany is also a Scots name though not nearly so common.
Yes, so much is down to luck. To take two examples from my life:
- I met my wife only because my PhD had overrun and I was so snowed under that I was late filing the extension request, which - if submitted on time - would have resulted in me being kicked out of my office to one of the grim over-end-of-PhD hotdesking offices. As I was late to submit, they'd already sorted office space and I was left where I was. Then my (now) wife arrived to start her PhD in the same office.
- I'm in my current line of work only because, having just submitted my PhD thesis and desperately needing money, a friend of mine mentioned that his dad, who worked for the NHS and collaborated with a local uni, needed someone to switch an old FoxPro research data handling system to R and SQL. I knew R and bluffed SQL and got the zero-hours post, which turned after 3-4 months into an offer of a post-doc and so I started my switch from x-ray physics to epidemiology.
Without those two pieces of luck, I'd be somewhere else, with someone else (or alone!), doing something completely different.I think London is already beyond the point where it is able to provide a sustainable housing offer for current and future growth earners.
O Joy. O Joy Unbounded
NEW THREAD
If you have a couple of children, you need more than a one bed flat.
Many people are struggling to afford a one bed flat on 2 salaries.
So when the Good News sonogram picture gets printed, people move out to the sticks.
In London, they are building tons of 1 and 2 bed flats as high as they can. Far fewer 3 bed properties.
Forest Gate?
Margate?
AP (via Seattle Times) - Tesla recalls nearly all vehicles sold in US to fix system that monitors drivers using Autopilot
Tesla is recalling nearly all vehicles sold in the U.S., more than 2 million, to update software and fix a defective system that’s supposed to ensure drivers are paying attention when using Autopilot.
Documents posted Wednesday by U.S. safety regulators say the update will increase warnings and alerts to drivers and even limit the areas where basic versions of Autopilot can operate.
The recall comes after a two-year investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration into a series of crashes that happened while the Autopilot partially automated driving system was in use. Some were deadly.
The agency says its investigation found Autopilot’s method of making sure that drivers are paying attention can be inadequate and can lead to “foreseeable misuse of the system.”
The added controls and alerts will “further encourage the driver to adhere to their continuous driving responsibility,” the documents said.
But safety experts said while the recall is a good step, it still makes the driver responsible and doesn’t fix the underlying problem that Tesla’s automated systems have trouble spotting and stopping for obstacles in their path. . . .
In its defect report filed with the safety agency, Tesla said Autopilot’s controls “may not be sufficient to prevent driver misuse.” . . .
SSI - Getta load of the "driver misuse" excuse. MusXmelons please explain?
Thank you.
I would hate to say it's to do with the colour of his skin but I have to wonder. Is a non-white person choosing the Tories an act of betrayal?