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The let’s get Rwanda done election? – politicalbetting.com
The let’s get Rwanda done election? – politicalbetting.com
Some Tory MPs saying if the Lords try to hold up the emergency legislation the PM should call an election and fight it on Rwanda. They say they'll still lose but less so than if they waited longer…
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Spent last night at Bramall Lane freezing my [moderated] off watching Liverpool.
But an election would be fun.
A snap Rwanda themed election is magnificently bonkers even by the standards of the 2016+ tories but I can't see it ending in anything other than a cataract of delicious blue tears. At some point in the election campaign they are going to be asked why they are allowing in 1.5m legal immigrants but pissing iron filings over a few thousand caminantes.
Big Rish would be better off having a military adventure in Guyana. Commonwealth country, Anglophone and all that. There is a 1 in 40 chance that it would all work out just fine with a bloodless victory.
Again, though, that's little to do with immigration, since the bulk of it is smuggled by US citizens.
Biden has at least reached some form of agreement with China, which supplies most of them, to restrict the supply of the chemical precursors into Mexico.
Human trafficking is human trafficking. Whether undertaken by Governments or smuggling gangs.
And good morning everybody.
What a mess the government seems to have got itself into. I’m beginning to think we will get an election before January 2025.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stormy-daniels-donald-trump-hush-money-interview-ndxngp602
Yup, which is why a Get Rwanda done election will be a disaster for them. An election of being tough on migration when they have been anything but will simply expose them.
Get it through the Commons, watch it get held up in the Lords. Crank up the outrage. Peers Vs people election. Party like it's 2019.
Not great odds, but there's a logic there. It's all been rather spoiled by Jenrick and Braverman blowing the gaff. And by Rwanda appearing to get cold feet.
I thought Rishi intended to get jolly miffed with foreign lawyers telling Britain what they could and couldn't do?
Mind you the adolescents of CCHQ still think the "power stance" for ministers actually works, rather than making them look simply absurd, so they could even have been planning to do it. Jenrick quitting reveals that even the Tories know that the Rwanda policy is a dead duck.
The problem now is that the Tories are beginning to have a nervous breakdown in the face of an epochal defeat.
We need a proper constitutional crisis involving the King, it has been too long.
And yes, it is antisemitism.
https://twitter.com/JonHaidt/status/1732389011983900857
As a professor who favors free speech on campus, I can sympathize with the "nuanced" answers given by U. presidents yesterday, about whether calls to attack or wipe out Israel violate campus speech policies.
What offends me is that since 2015, universities have been so quick to punish "microaggressions," including statements intended to be kind, if even one person from a favored group took offense. The presidents are now saying: "Jews are not a favored group, so offending or threatening Jews is not so bad. For Jews, it all depends on context." We might call this double standard "institutional anti-semitism."
University presidents: If you're not going to punish students for calling for the elimination of Israel and Israelis, it's OK with me, but ONLY if you also immediately dismantle the speech policing apparatus and norms you created in 2015-2016...
I'm struggling to see how this Government gets to March to allow an election to be called for May..
But they did get on with stuff, however painfully. And the three of them had thick enough skins to endure the daily humiliations. Not always well, but they did endure.
This feels different. More like the scene in a heist movie where the grift starts to visibly unravel. Except our heroes can't make a run for the airport.
And Rishi, talented in many ways, can't really put "thick skin" on his list of attributes.
It's going to be a long run-up to the election.
Firstly I never made a claim about whether or not the Republicans were negotiating in good faith so I am not sure why you address that.
The Biden administration needs to negotiate and agree a deal here. So far the US has given Ukraine over 80 billion USD. Of which just over half is in the form of military hardware. This aid package is, again, a mixture of cash and hardware. It is not just a load of obsolete weapons the US would otherwise send for scrap.
If it is so urgent then the administration need to get their skates on and sort it out. This deal also has aid for Gaza and Israel.
The Trump administration was fiscally irresponsible so that makes it okay to carry on being fiscally irresponsible. No it doesn't. Debt is fine when it can be afforded and with ZIRP the levels of debt under Trump were far more sustainable than they are now.
Currently 13% of US Tax dollars goes on debt, in ten years time it is forecast to be 20%.
If it is part of an electoral strategy, does what they have done point to an earlier election or a later one?
From what I've read, the legislation doesn't go as far as preventing individuals having recourse to the courts, and the treaty isn't going to alter the previous finding of facts, so even if the legislation passed parliament, the process could still be delayed in the courts for a long time. But is there really any prospect of its getting through the Lords anyway? If it's stuck in the Lords, does it make any difference whether the election is early or late?
Trump’s ‘dictator’ remark jolts the 2024 campaign — and tests his GOP rivals on debate day
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/06/trump-dictator-remark-2024-campaign-00130392
It’s doomed to failure.
I take my computer with me wherever I go because Nicola and I love watching TV shows and always have a series on the go. If we’re staying in a hotel then we’ll get room service — my go-to order is chicken and chips with an ice water; Nicola goes for fruit and ice cream — and binge-watch something like Sex and the City or Gilmore Girls in the evening.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/brooklyn-peltz-beckham-i-loved-summers-in-spain-with-my-nan-lj0klt6jd
What's also odd is that they were probably in a fairly good place until a decade or so ago. Come out of the bad old days when some disgraceful stuff was accepted but hands off enough to allow students to find their own way unless they had gone truly into some vile stuff. I guess in part it's inventing stuff for people to do and thus finding ever more niche quarrels to insert oneself into.
(And it's hard to see how a defeat for Ukraine would benefit the US economy over the next decade.)
As far as getting on with it goes, it's Congress that's stalling. If there is a deal to be done, Biden, as he always has, will do it.
The reason I raise 'good faith' is that you're implying that this is all within Biden's power. It isn't.
.@nicholaswatt reports that an ally of Boris Johnson and fmr cabinet minister is suggesting there’s a 3 year timetable for the ‘Bring Back Boris’ movement.
Sunak loses - new leader fails - Johnson returns
@estwebber
It's not an uncommon view right now that the job ambitious Tory MPs want is not the next party leader but the one after that
@estwebber
Some feeling among moderate Tories that they're ok for the right to "have" the next leader and flame out
"Mottley met David Cameron earlier on Tuesday but would not give details of the foreign secretary’s thoughts on the UK’s slavery-related debt.
“I’m not going to get into the details of our conversation but suffice to say I think the foreign secretary will take his lead from his majesty,” she said."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/barbados-pm-says-country-owed-4-9tn-as-she-makes-fresh-call-for-reparations/ar-AA1l76X0?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=f47f9f6870da40de92e477a56cc15309&ei=9
The strain shows, say current and former Brown aides: among other things, it has inflamed a temper that has always been the subject of gallows humour among those who work with him.
The prime minister, 58, has hurled pens and even a stapler at aides, according to one; he also says he once saw the leader of Britain's 61 million people shove a laser printer off a desk in a rage.
Another aide was warned to watch out for "flying Nokias" when he joined Brown's team.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2009/apr/24/gordon-brown-angry
Strangely we didn't have civil servants complaining about bullying in those days.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m001t8cn/prime-ministers-questions-06122023
Suella Braverman denies that she is a ‘headline grabber who spreads poison’, even within her own party
She says that she is willing to say things that ‘polite society’ does not want to hear
You don't think people would if they knew how to do it?
A debate including all the parties would be pretty much 6 or 7 against 1 (if RefUK were there it could hardly support Sunak, as pretty much its "USP" is saying he has failed on immigration).
But if they held out for a head-to-head debate between Sunak and Starmer, "taken forensically apart" might be an understatement.
I think the Tories would have to refuse a TV leaders' debate altogether.
The West Indies are now a collection of mostly independent black republics - effectively West African colonies which are far more affluent and developed than West Africa itself.
The descendants of the slaves got the countries.
It's messy, this government. It's a nightmare. It's like Begbie in a bar. Can it not just sit down and have a nice day once in a while, without always causing such a fucking scene?
British taxpayers aren't going to pay a penny for something that happened centuries ago and which the British led the way in abolishing
Prime Ministers at the end of a term of government have to focus on crisis management - both for the government and for their party.
We have very low unemployment, we have rapidly falling inflation, we have moderate growth rather than the forecast recession, the living wage is rising quite quickly in nominal and real terms reducing income disparities, the government has finally taken a modest step towards reducing the penalisation of earned income, things are just not as bad as they are being painted.
We were briefly discussing the same phenomenon last week in the context of Biden who has an extremely hostile press despite having an even better economic record. Our media both in the US as well as here have lost any sense of proportion and I rather think that some on this site have also.
And you're right- there's not a lot you can do about it, beyond learning to control your breathing.
But you usually develop it by failing and surviving. In politics, that means standing for your party somewhere hopeless. Or having to defend a policy disaster as a junior minister when hardly anyone is in the Commons chamber.
All the stuff Rishi missed out on, in other words. In a parallel universe, he's currently a junior minister and a tasty 80-1 tip for the next Conservative PM.
Trouble is, the money went to the criminals.
They don't want British troops lives lost for a nation that is not even a Commonwealth realm now without a UN mandate
A big increase in NHS employment as well - though it doesn't seem to realise it has achieved something the public want.
The President of Guyana was making such demands recently. Now he may need our help I wonder if he will change his tune.
have rejected paying that too (and as you say it is now paid
off).
If any compensation is claimed it can be claimed from descendsnts of slaveowners who received that compensation from British taxpayers
On the other point you are equally wrong - the last country I want invading somewhere else to claim that areas oil is Venezuela - for multiple reasons, one of which is they are crap at extracting it
An interesting situation, to put it mildly.
That is going to make May onwards very difficult for Rishi which is why they should (but probably won’t) go for May
https://thecommonwealth.org/our-member-countries
https://thecommonwealth.org/our-member-countries/guyana
The weasel word is 'realm' - because it doesn't bow down to KCIII as head of state, HYUFD thinks IT DOESN'T COUNT.
Presumably wanting compensation for their ancestors being stopped from slave trading.
I wonder given Guyana's demographics whether India and/or Nigeria might use it as an opportunity to strut on the world stage.
To paraphrase Mr Reagan, the average person very much doesn’t feel better off than they did four years ago, something that’s true for both the US and UK.
@Carnyx
Our convo is precisely why the debate won't be reopened even for the families of slave owners to pay anything back.
Focusing exclusively on the poor for energy subsidies loses support for them generally - people are happier 'paying in' if they're getting something back in return even if its much less than they're 'paying in'.
And things are great for many millions as well as being pretty difficult for many millions of others.
But a difference is that some demographics and doing better or worse than they traditionally have.
Otoh all you'd need is a Carribean phone directory to identify the descendants of our 'commercial activities'.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/64196/are-the-reform-partys-polling-numbers-as-good-as-they-seem
Backed up by actual elections too. "However, recent evidence from actual elections tilts the debate in favour of Ipsos. In this May’s local elections, the Greens gained 241 council seats, Reform just two. In parliamentary byelections in the past two years, Reform’s best result was 5.4 per cent in Tamworth. The Greens won almost twice that in Somerton and Frome: 10.2 per cent."
This is important because polling performance can have a positive feedback effect. You rise in the polls, at least apparently, and it raises your profile and potentially makes more people choose you.
Could it possibly be because all they seem to talk or care about is ******* SMALL BOATS?
I am hoping Mr Keith puts pay to any thoughts of a Johnson revival today.
Inconvenient it might be to some.
Slavery ended in 1838 and the slave trade in 1807.
And the descendants of the slaves own/control those countries.
The abolition of slavery in the British Empire went pretty well and with better long term consequences than it did in most other places.