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Nikki Haley could be the Republican that stops Trump – politicalbetting.com
Nikki Haley could be the Republican that stops Trump – politicalbetting.com
Nikki Haley moves to a 5.8% net favourability lead over both Trump and Biden. She's the only one surely who can beat Trump for the GOP nomination https://t.co/mlmH50AOxC pic.twitter.com/qJfZP8bzFk
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https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9uZW9saWJwb2RjYXN0LmxpYnN5bi5jb20vcnNz/episode/M2QyMjZhNTMtNjlkYS00NTFjLWFkNDItZjgzMzM5NWY0MmJj?sa=X&ved=0CAQQ8qgGahcKEwjQs9f_2fKCAxUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAQ
So I think there's a good reason to think that Haley's ratings would drop if ended up in a head-to-head with Donald Trump. But I do think she's impressive; She was one of the only people to come out of a job with the Trump administration with her reputation intact. And although Trump is obviously the favourite for the primary, early states often surprise and if she beats him in a couple of those then we're off to the races.
The real question would be whether he tried to run as an independent, but even if he wants to that seems hard because of the sore loser laws and so forth. The rational thing to do would be to bargain with Haley for a pardon, but at that point I guess we'd find out how rational he is.
The idea that he’ll bargain for a pardon, as I’ve said before, I’m not buying it. Even if he made some sort of agreement, it would take less than a week for him to break whatever terms were agreed. He cannot stop himself bloviating.
Bevvy with Cleverly
Fizz with Liz
Perry with Penny
Glűhwein with Gove
Arak with Jack
Punch up with Cameron
The last is just a bit of advice,
Tho technically my favourite knives are these
Wolf and Dingo. Hand forged on Bodmin Moor. I have three. Superb
https://www.atkinson-art.co.uk/product-category/wolf-dingo-chef-knives-for-valhalla/
Only problem is they are 25 times the price of Opinel
Is there any other other major democracy so obsessed with such an historically distant politician?
I can’t think of one. Not Reagan or Clinton. Not Schroeder or kohl. Not Mitterrand or giscard
Thatcher seems unique. She is also hero worshipped by the right in the USA, no other UK politician (with the obvious exception of Churchill) merits a passing glance
Hootin’ with Putin
Going round to Vlad’s dacha for a massive coke bender
Coincidentally I am reading a book about forensic psychiatry and “an obsession with knives” is one of the top 20 primary indicators of psychopathy
I also tick several other boxes. Odd sensation
Jenkem with Jenrick
Assisted Suicide with Sunak
Take Your Library Books Back with Steve Barclay
Trying to associate oneself with a non-grey, charismatic leader is a classic grey man ploy.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1731114544205078713
“Macron had planned to make an extensive tour of the Middle East but instead held meetings about the conflict on the sidelines of UN climate talks.
Neither Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas attended the Dubai summit.
In October, Macron met with Netanyahu in Israel.
Analysts say Macron’s visits to Dubai and Doha illustrate the difficulty his government faces in finding a way to influence the conflict.
“France and Macron are not really finding their place in this crisis,” said Agnes Levallois, vice-president of the Institute for Mediterranean Middle East Research and Studies.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/dec/03/israel-hamas-war-live-israeli-attacks-on-gaza-continue-overnight-macron-warns-israels-plan-to-eliminate-hamas-risks-decade-of-war
At least the UK is not alone in its cringeworthy delusions of post-imperial importance
Getting environmental concerns embedded into the structure of government, for example. To read the minutes of civil servants sneering about acid rain mitigation….
Even if you don’t like the policies, it is worth considering how you create long lasting change.
Fortunately the main road nearby seems to have been cleared. So at least we can walk to the town, even it will take an hour or so.
Anyway, this article is well worth reading.
https://www.thenational.scot/politics/23964156.questions-remain-scottish-handling-post-office-horizon-scandal/
It makes 3 important points:-
1. Scotland does not have the same rebuttable presumption that computer evidence is reliable unless the defendant proves otherwise.
2. Scottish prosecutors had doubts about Horizon evidence and did not therefore prosecute.
3. The Post Office in Scotland could not run its own prosecutions so there was some independent review - and attempt to comply with the rules - of the type so dismally lacking in England & Wales.
Bluntly the PO was not able to subvert the Scottish criminal justice system in the way that it did elsewhere. Though the evidence in recent days suggests that the PO did try to by trying to bully Scottish prosecutors.
It makes Ministers' refusal to look again at the computer evidence presumption even more unconscionable than it is.
Despite its disinterested voters, it is still a democracy. Just not one you'd want to live in.
Trump might keep claiming to Make America Great Again but, in a very real sense Thatcher contributed to that 30 years ago and many still recall that time.
She doesn't have the core supporters she needs it seems that Trump does to win the Republican primaries and caucuses. Even if she did Trump would almost certainly run as an Independent anyway, handing re election to Biden on a plate under the US FPTP EC system
I have a beautiful Laguiole corkscrew that I simply love to handle too.
My most evil knife is my sailors knife, designed for cutting ropes in an emergency, which I keep on a cord in my buoyancy aid.
"‘You can’t believe it’s true’ - Will Mellor on the frightening real-life story behind Mr Bates vs the Post Office | Virgin Radio UK" https://virginradio.co.uk/entertainment/128150/will-mellor-mr-bates-vs-the-post-office-unbelievable-story
I'll be quite surprised if some enterprising journalist hasn't found quotes of Starmer slating Thatcher by lunchtime.
One of the gotcha questions in debates is "what do you respect/admire about your opponent?" It's always dismal when Cox can't think of anything good to say about Box.
And the bottom line is that la Thatch did change things, initially in the face of a not great inheritance. Much of it was disliked, and thoughtful Conservatives ought to admit that some of it planted seeds for our current woes.
But the change was real.
Now the whole western world is in decline so a Thatcher figure seems even more attractive, to many
A kind of Rex Quondam, Rex Futurae
Starmer has spoken of his time in the Young Socialits youth wing of the Labour Party, and was editor of the hard left "Socialist Alternatives" paper in the late Eighties, so must have campaigned against Thatcherism at every opportunity.
If its merely about achieving change than there are plenty of Labour leaders to cite, from Attlee to Blair.
Presumably the PF and Crown Office might have had their suspicions - but without looking into it in detail they couldn't be sure. And it would be unfair to expect them to spend the time to do so (which they couldn't, without a case, anyway, which meant a formal complaint from the PO) or to go public - unless, that was, there was an actual case in Scotland and expert witnesses could go to town on the prosecution evidence and the whole laundry-basket could be emptied out in court.
I do wonder however how many Scottish subPMs had to pay the losses the system reportedly magicked out of thin air, and lost their livelihoods on the quiet, even if they did not go to court.
I'm now beginning to wonder just why at least one supermarket I know closed its subPO.
Leicester not playing well but grinding out points, conceding an equaliser at Wednesday on Wednesday night and lucky to get an injury time winner yesterday at WBA.
I think we are clear enough to get promotion but it's tight margins, winning or losing by a single goal. We rarely score freely or concede more than one.
His left-wing critics will fear he's sincere and floating voters will want to believe such objectivity is true.
So, it will work.
Most of the marginal seats though that did switch from Labour to Conservative in 2010 and have voted Tory since did vote for Thatcher as did some of the redwall seats and all the bluewall seats
Without North Sea oil nor "selling off the family silver" by privatisations, Thatcherism style remodeling of the country is no longer possible, even if the challenges weren't so different.
You say that like it’s a bad thing
But you make an important point which is often overlooked: many SPMs were pursued for the money but not prosecuted. So the injustice goes wider than the prosecutions - all the debt recovery proceedings are also fundamentally flawed. And all the monies SPMs paid out of their own pockets to resolve discrepancies were obtained under false pretences.
Basically nothing the PO legal department did in relation to the SPM - whether civil or criminal - from 2000 onwards - can be relied on.
I wouldn't rely on anything they say or do now, frankly, given the ongoing disclosure failings. The entire legal and investigative function at the PO is discredited.
One of the PO investigation managers who recently gave evidence is now an internal investigator at Sellafield, which is a tad worrying. She boasts about her time at the PO on her LinkedIn page which shows an alarming lack of awareness.
You will whine like a mule but still vote Labour in the GE.
You are one of his useful idiots.
*the Premium Business Class Lounge, no less.
You have to remember that before you ever see any public move like this it's been carefully polled, focus-grouped and tested for months.
Did loads of prodding in the F-14 but the probe, like every other part of the aircraft, was built tough.
I have seen it happen from inside a KC-130 though. The HH-60 driver said he'd mail the receptacle back to them once he had RTBed.
https://www.cop28accommodationdubai.com/charter-private-jet-to-cop28-dubai/
I particularly love the first line on that page:
"If you’re looking to charter a private jet to COP28 in Dubai, we can help organize this and more." As if it's the most obvious and natural thing in the world.
Also:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliverwilliams1/2021/11/05/118-private-jets-take-leaders-to-cop26-climate-summit-burning-over-1000-tons-of-co2/?sh=289865c653d9
Trump's favourability among Democrats is of supreme unimportance in the primaries, and his favourability among independents only of marginal consequence.
What matters is Trump's favourability among the relatively small proportion of the US population who will vote in the Republican primaries - and that's hugely positive.
Plus, there is clearly the pro-Trump and anti-Trump Republican vote. For now, the pro-Trump vote is not only larger than the anti-Trump vote but the pro-Trump vote is united and the anti-Trump one hopelessly divided. Generally, any candidate getting 30% in New Hampshire will be on for a comfortable win. Trump will probably get double that and the rest will be scrambling for scraps. Haley should (has to) do a lot better than that in South Carolina but even a comfortable second would be deeply inadequate to propel her into a position where she could defeat Trump at the ballot box; for that she'd need a convincing win, backed up by other wins outside her home state. And that ain't happening.
I'll keep making this point: understand the bloody rules.
There are legal impediments in place to prevent sore-loser candidacies - filing deadlines, restrictions on running under different flags in the same election, and so on, in enough states as to fatally hobble any serious candidate attempting it. Citing 1912 as a precedent (or even 1980) is pointless if it can't be done under current rules.
And yes, those rules could be changed but only with the support of the various state officials - and would they really be willing to do that, against the interests of their own party in many cases, for a candidate who had just *lost* in the popular vote?
More realistically, if Trump actually lost, he'd launch a legal blizzard of cases against Haley (ow whoever), the GOP hierarchy, state officials and anyone else he perceived as having crossed his path. He'd also spout off like a madman. Would it make a difference? Yes, but there'd also be context: *why* had he lost a primary campaign he's currently cruising to victory in?
We need impetus and fresh ideas, not retreads of pandering back to Thatcherism.
It is still a low probability she gets the nomination, though.
Starmer's praise for Thatcher is weird and seems to be part of him wanting to be all things to all people
And talking about Brexit possibilities . More stupid comments which will annoy the vast majority of Labour voters who think Brexit is a crusty white turd !