That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Japan's. But only if I were also given control of immigration policy. They are moving rather too slowly on that.
You'd copy the policy that has been tested to destruction by the UK? Marvellous.
You might not have noticed, but they are not the same, fool.
I took your comment to imply that you would help Japan by ramping up immigration. We've been trying that in the UK at an accelerating pace.
Absent an increase in immigration, Japan is in terrible trouble.
And they are getting into the kind of death spiral that has hammered cities across the rust belt in the US. Taxes and borrowing rise to pay the promises made to retirees, which means that the young leave, making the burden on those that remain even worse.
With a birth rate of 1.34 and net emigration of the young, the ratio of people in their 40s and 50s to those in their teens and 20s is close to 2-1. That's going to be horrendous when the oldies need healthcare, drugs and pensions.
Even assuming, for sake of argument, there is a conscious effort to do something - be it immigration or somehow increasing birthrates - the decreases in population for several countries this century and into the next will be staggering.
It's not like they'll suddenly be empty but it'll be a rapid change.
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Japan's. But only if I were also given control of immigration policy. They are moving rather too slowly on that.
You'd copy the policy that has been tested to destruction by the UK? Marvellous.
You might not have noticed, but they are not the same, fool.
I took your comment to imply that you would help Japan by ramping up immigration. We've been trying that in the UK at an accelerating pace.
Absent an increase in immigration, Japan is in terrible trouble.
And they are getting into the kind of death spiral that has hammered cities across the rust belt in the US. Taxes and borrowing rise to pay the promises made to retirees, which means that the young leave, making the burden on those that remain even worse.
With a birth rate of 1.34 and net emigration of the young, the ratio of people in their 40s and 50s to those in their teens and 20s is close to 2-1. That's going to be horrendous when the oldies need healthcare, drugs and pensions.
There's a danger in taking current trends and assuming that they will continue remorselessly rather than self-correct. Maybe low rents and a gradual intergenerational transfer of wealth will trigger a baby boom?
That hasn't happened in the rust belt; the young and the productive have simply left. As they are doing in Japan.
Is there even a single example of falling rents due to depopulation and a worsening dependency ratio leading to increased birth rates?
Leaving the rust belt or leaving the country? According to this data from 2019, around 2.7 million Japanese live abroad which is about half the number of British expats, despite their larger population, so I don't think they have an emigration crisis.
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Japan's. But only if I were also given control of immigration policy. They are moving rather too slowly on that.
You'd copy the policy that has been tested to destruction by the UK? Marvellous.
You might not have noticed, but they are not the same, fool.
I took your comment to imply that you would help Japan by ramping up immigration. We've been trying that in the UK at an accelerating pace.
Absent an increase in immigration, Japan is in terrible trouble.
And they are getting into the kind of death spiral that has hammered cities across the rust belt in the US. Taxes and borrowing rise to pay the promises made to retirees, which means that the young leave, making the burden on those that remain even worse.
With a birth rate of 1.34 and net emigration of the young, the ratio of people in their 40s and 50s to those in their teens and 20s is close to 2-1. That's going to be horrendous when the oldies need healthcare, drugs and pensions.
There's a danger in taking current trends and assuming that they will continue remorselessly rather than self-correct. Maybe low rents and a gradual intergenerational transfer of wealth will trigger a baby boom?
That hasn't happened in the rust belt; the young and the productive have simply left. As they are doing in Japan.
Is there even a single example of falling rents due to depopulation and a worsening dependency ratio leading to increased birth rates?
See the attempts to repopulate picturesque, but remote towns in some quite nice parts of Italy and Spain.
Students are interesting, because we desperately need the export income, and - should they choose to stay - they are the very smartest kind of migrant.
But I wonder at the effect on university incentives at massively shifting attention to foreign students.
And the chart above is kind of scary, let’s be honest.
No need to be scared. From 2024 only students doing original research (PHDs and a few Masters) will be able to bring dependents with them. Thats only about 10% of overseas students.
It is simply unsustainable to grow pensions beyond the rate of actual productivity growth. Pensions should be tagged to that, so that pensioners have some connection with the reality of where their money is coming from.
Right now, they simply vote for more goodies for themselves, and impoverishment for everyone else. Never have we seen a more selfish class than elderly boomers.
Pensioners generally support more spending on the NHS, a higher minimum wage and lower taxes for workers too.
And of course most of them worked and paid in all their working lives and have a property they own, which their parents maybe didn't, they can pass on to their children
They may support it but they don't vote for it....
The Tories have done all the above, as the autumn statement showed
Somehow it seems bad manners to drag foreign countries into Sunak's desperate political posturing.
Governments are used to that sort of thing, especially with democratic leaders. Its bad form to actually have a row rather than just criticise the damn french/english/nicaraguan/ take your pick though.
That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Very, very high birth rate. Leading to a huge number of young people looking for a way to survive. Combined with an economy that isn’t exactly China in turbo mode…
This is a must-read from Sean Trende. It does not make happy reading.
Its America's funeral. They've had a good run.
More interesting is what President Trump does after winning the election. Yes we know he will arrest all of the opposition politicians and we know the GOP will implement laws to subjugate women. But you get what you vote for.
The unknown is his foreign policy. Will he join with Putin (as Mussolini joined with Hitler) to try and impose a far right alt-fact hegemony across the west? Will he nuke Iran or tell them how much he admires how they deal with dissidents?
Everything seems possible. Nuclear War. Russia Uber Alles. The end of NATO. What happened when an embittered man baby is restored to power and vows never to lose it again?
That the only person capable of opposing him is Biddy Biden tells you everything you need to know about how broken America is. "They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into, I say, Let Them Crash!"
When Trump says he's America First, he means it - probably unintentionally and unknowingly in the historical sense, but accurately all the same.
He's an isolationist. He will probably withdraw from NATO but even if he doesn't, he will functionally withdraw; he will make clear that he doesn't feel bound by Article V. He will give Putin free run while trying to extract trade quid pro quos (of which they'll rather more quids than quos; he's never been a good negotiator).
He certainly won't do anything about Iran, though he might make noises. He likes making noises. But he's scared of violence, which he doesn't understand so doesn't use it. We know that from last time, when he did have good cause to attack Iran (on a limited basis), and wimped out at the last minute.
Worth noting re Mussolini, the two didn't form any kind of alliance for 7 years - until France was on its knees in 1940 and Hitler was already master of northern Europe.
That was a very sobering article from Sean Trende. And, Sean Trende is probably the USA's leading psephologist, so good that he was one of the two who redrew Virginia's State Senate and Legislative boundaries, so that they were no longer gerrymandered.
The result of Trump's court cases and whether he is convicted and jailed or not will probably determine the next Presidential election.
Until that point polls are mainly of passing interest not much more
Trende’s view (and I agree) is that the court cases makes no difference.
Oh they do, certainly if he is jailed.
'A plurality of respondents (44 percent) said that a conviction in the case would have no impact on their likelihood of supporting Trump, but the numbers tipped decisively against Trump among those who said that the result would inform their vote. Nearly one-third of respondents (32 percent) said that a conviction in the case would make them less likely to support Trump, including about one-third of independents (34 percent).
'45% of Republicans said they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony by a jury, while 35% said they would. 52% said they wouldn't vote for him if he were in prison at the time of the election, while 28% said they would.'
If it wasn't for his cases Trump would be odds on to return as President, however if Biden is re elected it will almost certainly be down to a Trump conviction in a criminal case
Chris Christie was a federal proecutor before he was the Republican Governor of New Jersey.
He is firmly of the view that Trump will be in jail by the summer.
Bet accordingly.
Did he say convicted or in jail? I can believe one of those.
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Japan's. But only if I were also given control of immigration policy. They are moving rather too slowly on that.
You'd copy the policy that has been tested to destruction by the UK? Marvellous.
You might not have noticed, but they are not the same, fool.
I took your comment to imply that you would help Japan by ramping up immigration. We've been trying that in the UK at an accelerating pace.
Absent an increase in immigration, Japan is in terrible trouble.
And they are getting into the kind of death spiral that has hammered cities across the rust belt in the US. Taxes and borrowing rise to pay the promises made to retirees, which means that the young leave, making the burden on those that remain even worse.
With a birth rate of 1.34 and net emigration of the young, the ratio of people in their 40s and 50s to those in their teens and 20s is close to 2-1. That's going to be horrendous when the oldies need healthcare, drugs and pensions.
Even assuming, for sake of argument, there is a conscious effort to do something - be it immigration or somehow increasing birthrates - the decreases in population for several countries this century and into the next will be staggering.
It's not like they'll suddenly be empty but it'll be a rapid change.
China being the obvious and ginormous example. Population drops in the hundreds of millions.
How can students afford to bring their family with them? And more importantly why would any student want ma and pa with them, cramping their social life .
I suspect the India Trade Deal is hitting the buffers because they wanted more visas and in the current climate that wouldn’t be a good look.
That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Well Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa and is Commonwealth
That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Uk government targeted Nigeria as one of five countries (India, Indonesia, Saudi, Vietnam the others) to reach their target of 600,000 overseas students.
That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Very, very high birth rate. Leading to a huge number of young people looking for a way to survive. Combined with an economy that isn’t exactly China in turbo mode…
Young people with dependents and little hope of a future. And we are assuming they will go back. Hmm.
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Japan's. But only if I were also given control of immigration policy. They are moving rather too slowly on that.
You'd copy the policy that has been tested to destruction by the UK? Marvellous.
You might not have noticed, but they are not the same, fool.
I took your comment to imply that you would help Japan by ramping up immigration. We've been trying that in the UK at an accelerating pace.
Absent an increase in immigration, Japan is in terrible trouble.
And they are getting into the kind of death spiral that has hammered cities across the rust belt in the US. Taxes and borrowing rise to pay the promises made to retirees, which means that the young leave, making the burden on those that remain even worse.
With a birth rate of 1.34 and net emigration of the young, the ratio of people in their 40s and 50s to those in their teens and 20s is close to 2-1. That's going to be horrendous when the oldies need healthcare, drugs and pensions.
There's a danger in taking current trends and assuming that they will continue remorselessly rather than self-correct. Maybe low rents and a gradual intergenerational transfer of wealth will trigger a baby boom?
That hasn't happened in the rust belt; the young and the productive have simply left. As they are doing in Japan.
Is there even a single example of falling rents due to depopulation and a worsening dependency ratio leading to increased birth rates?
Leaving the rust belt or leaving the country? According to this data from 2019, around 2.7 million Japanese live abroad which is about half the number of British expats, despite their larger population, so I don't think they have an emigration crisis.
As for baby booms, how about post-WW2 here? The dependency ratio was surely worsened by the war disproportionately hitting the young and healthy.
I was wondering about WW2 as a counter example, but
(a) rents and house prices were significantly higher in 1945 than 1939 thanks to the destruction of housing stock in the war. So, people had lots of babies despite much higher costs, which is a curious and counter-intuitive.
(b) there simply weren't a lot of old people in 1945, and the proportion of government spending on healthcare and pensions for the oldies was absolutely negligible.
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Japan's. But only if I were also given control of immigration policy. They are moving rather too slowly on that.
You'd copy the policy that has been tested to destruction by the UK? Marvellous.
You might not have noticed, but they are not the same, fool.
I took your comment to imply that you would help Japan by ramping up immigration. We've been trying that in the UK at an accelerating pace.
Absent an increase in immigration, Japan is in terrible trouble.
And they are getting into the kind of death spiral that has hammered cities across the rust belt in the US. Taxes and borrowing rise to pay the promises made to retirees, which means that the young leave, making the burden on those that remain even worse.
With a birth rate of 1.34 and net emigration of the young, the ratio of people in their 40s and 50s to those in their teens and 20s is close to 2-1. That's going to be horrendous when the oldies need healthcare, drugs and pensions.
Even assuming, for sake of argument, there is a conscious effort to do something - be it immigration or somehow increasing birthrates - the decreases in population for several countries this century and into the next will be staggering.
It's not like they'll suddenly be empty but it'll be a rapid change.
That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Uk government targeted Nigeria as one of five countries (India, Indonesia, Saudi, Vietnam the others) to reach their target of 600,000 overseas students.
That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Uk government targeted Nigeria as one of five countries (India, Indonesia, Saudi, Vietnam the others) to reach their target of 600,000 overseas students.
Lots of rich Nigerians want out of Nigeria.
I didn't know that, thank you.
This is why Jenrick, Braverman et al are so bonkers. This was a policy introduced in 2019 to get more Nigerian students. We get more Nigerian students, and they get angry about it. It is pathetic.
To be fair as shadow Immigration minister he is quite right to point out the slow performance of Brown and Cleggs 13 year coalition of failure. We need an election as quickly as possible to replace these lefty liberals with a proper Conservative government.
Don't know if anybody listened to Jenrick in the HoC yesterday, but he was absolutely hilarious. Repeatedly saying that immigration (legal as well as illegal) was far too high, pretty much out of control, and something must be done - the situation is wholly unacceptable.
I'm assuming this is the same Jenrick whose current job is Minister for Immigration.
Until they outlaw Tofu, there's not much he can do though. Spare a thought!
I assume that the government is loathe to reduce the number of international students because without their fees many (or most?) universities would suffer severe financial stress (and, of course, Vice Chancellors' inflated salaries may come under scrutiny).
I also assume that if international students couldn't bring their dependants with them, they wouldn't just shrug their shoulders and come anyway. They'd go elsewhere.
Yes - digging into the Home Office piece, the increase seems substantially due to a huge jump in postgraduate students, who are by definition older and more likely to have families. I don't feel greatly concerned that we're attracting a lot of people seeking higher education - perhaps they'll stay on and help our shortages of doctors, dentists and other professions.
(a) the number of dependent's of students has absolutely gone through the roof (up 8x between 2019 and 2022) and (b) that so many of them come from a single country
Should give some us some reason to pause and reflect, no?
To reflect on the success of British universities in attracting so many postgraduates? Otherwise, no, it's fine.
That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Uk government targeted Nigeria as one of five countries (India, Indonesia, Saudi, Vietnam the others) to reach their target of 600,000 overseas students.
Lots of rich Nigerians want out of Nigeria.
That was a totally different government though, I think you'll find. If you squint. This new, modern, forward-thinking government is now telling them to clamp down on overseas students. And also, balance your books. Silly institutions.
They'll be wanting HS rail next. Madness. That was last week.
I assume that the government is loathe to reduce the number of international students because without their fees many (or most?) universities would suffer severe financial stress (and, of course, Vice Chancellors' inflated salaries may come under scrutiny).
I also assume that if international students couldn't bring their dependants with them, they wouldn't just shrug their shoulders and come anyway. They'd go elsewhere.
Yes - digging into the Home Office piece, the increase seems substantially due to a huge jump in postgraduate students, who are by definition older and more likely to have families. I don't feel greatly concerned that we're attracting a lot of people seeking higher education - perhaps they'll stay on and help our shortages of doctors, dentists and other professions.
That doesn't explain the wildly disproportionate ratios. These are from the 2022 figures:
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
How can students afford to bring their family with them? And more importantly why would any student want ma and pa with them, cramping their social life .
I suspect the India Trade Deal is hitting the buffers because they wanted more visas and in the current climate that wouldn’t be a good look.
This isn’t 1st world “I’ll hang about with my mates and drink for 3 years” bullshit.
This is serious, “climb the economic ladder” stuff. My wife came from Peru like this - the family scrimped and saved. She worked every hour that she wasn’t studying.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
How can students afford to bring their family with them? And more importantly why would any student want ma and pa with them, cramping their social life .
I suspect the India Trade Deal is hitting the buffers because they wanted more visas and in the current climate that wouldn’t be a good look.
This isn’t 1st world “I’ll hang about with my mates and drink for 3 years” bullshit.
This is serious, “climb the economic ladder” stuff. My wife came from Peru like this - the family scrimped and saved. She worked every hour that she wasn’t studying.
Is there a tradition, I wonder, for right-wing PBers to marry foreigners?
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
"Analysis: Russian engineering of Finland's migration influx possible - but yet to be proven By Diana Magnay, Moscow correspondent
Finland's decision to shut the last of its border crossings with Russia for a two-week period is a clear message to Russia's security forces: we know what you're doing and we won't put up with it.
The Finnish prime minister calls the recent influx of migrants crossing into his country - some 900 in November compared with only double digits before - the result of a Russian influence operation, which the Kremlin denies.
Russia is clearly displeased over Finland's decision to join NATO.
Deploying asymmetric methods as a form of payback is hardly beyond the realms of possibility and Finland says it has intelligence that Russian border officials have been aiding and abetting the migrant flows."
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
That is not a very diverse family - even the dog is white
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
Well, he's not particularly popular in California, which might make him more palatable in Michigan.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
My parents had five kids, lord knows how they managed it. God forbid all those generations with many more kids per family.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
That is not a very diverse family - even the dog is white
It almost feels like someone has increased the luminosity or something, the dog is practically glowing it's so bright white.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
Could easily be the garden of a 5 bed detached in Surrey
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
That is not a very diverse family - even the dog is white
It almost feels like someone has increased the luminosity or something, the dog is practically glowing it's so bright white.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
That is not a very diverse family - even the dog is white
It almost feels like someone has increased the luminosity or something, the dog is practically glowing it's so bright white.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
Could easily be the garden of a 5 bed detached in Surrey
If it was a five bed detached in Surrey I imagine it would be more likely occupied by a pair of retired boomers and their housepets only, not a couple old enough to have young kids.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
My parents had five kids, lord knows how they managed it.
Well, don't quote me on it but I'm guessing they had sex on a number of occasions.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
That is not a very diverse family - even the dog is white
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
My parents had five kids, lord knows how they managed it.
Well, don't quote me on it but I'm guessing they had sex on a number of occasions.
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Viewed from eight time zones away, the obsession with Brexit on this site seems mistaken.
From what I can tell from this far away, Brexit has resulted in a modest increase in democracy In Britain, so UK elections now matter a little more, and bureacracies in Brussels a little less. If there have been signficant economic losses from Brexit, it is not apparent at this distance.
Were I a UK citizen, I would be looking at other, greater problems.
(The European Union has been disastrous for the economy of Greece. That should bother more of you.)
So, I'm about 90% in agreement with you.
On the subject of Brexit: yep, it's a modest increase in democracy, with negligible economic effects (positive or negative) so far.
Regarding Greece, it has been their membership of the Euro (rather than the EU) which has been the specific problem. But it's also been as much Greece's fault as the EU. The EU didn't tell Greece to lie about the amount of debt it had outstanding.
Being in any fixed currency systems - whether it is the Gold Standard, Bretton Woods, the ERM or the Euro - requires serious commitment to a flexible labour market, because devaluations have to be internal. And if you're prepared to make that commitment, you will be rewarded by a lower risk free rate. But that is an difficult commitment, which requires political balls of steel.
Neither the Italian or the Greek governments have been willing to make the structural changes necessary for a fixed exchange rate. They need to "shit or get off the pot"; i.e., make the changes or leave the Euro. Because the alternative is continuing to be trapped in a low growth cycle.
Do the drawbacks of a single currency not also apply to the single market itself, perhaps even more so?
If you're in a fixed system where you deny yourself the ability to use the normal instruments of trade policy, you are very exposed to competitive pressures and others gaming the system.
What are the normal instruments of trade policy of which you speak?
Tariffs, subsidies, non-tariff barriers.
Japan, of course, uses all of those, and I'm not sure it's done them any great favours.
And I don't think the EU is a subsidy free zone. Would subsidies be more efficient if they were done purely at a national level? Probably. But the evidence that they create economic growth in the medium term (cough, the Welsh Development Agency, cough) is mixed at best.
And as moves in tariffs - see the US in 2018 to 2020 - tend to cause reciprocal moves that harm both countries, I think it's unlikely that they are a useful tool to spur economic growth.
If you could be given the job of finance minister of a G7 country and were giving free rein to implement any policies you liked to improve the usual metrics, would you rather start from Japan's position or the UK's?
Japan's. But only if I were also given control of immigration policy. They are moving rather too slowly on that.
You'd copy the policy that has been tested to destruction by the UK? Marvellous.
You might not have noticed, but they are not the same, fool.
I took your comment to imply that you would help Japan by ramping up immigration. We've been trying that in the UK at an accelerating pace.
Absent an increase in immigration, Japan is in terrible trouble.
And they are getting into the kind of death spiral that has hammered cities across the rust belt in the US. Taxes and borrowing rise to pay the promises made to retirees, which means that the young leave, making the burden on those that remain even worse.
With a birth rate of 1.34 and net emigration of the young, the ratio of people in their 40s and 50s to those in their teens and 20s is close to 2-1. That's going to be horrendous when the oldies need healthcare, drugs and pensions.
Neither Japan nor S Korea is likely to prosper without significant increases in immigration, but they would benefit from much better planning than we ever managed. They are making tentative efforts.
How can students afford to bring their family with them? And more importantly why would any student want ma and pa with them, cramping their social life .
I suspect the India Trade Deal is hitting the buffers because they wanted more visas and in the current climate that wouldn’t be a good look.
This isn’t 1st world “I’ll hang about with my mates and drink for 3 years” bullshit.
This is serious, “climb the economic ladder” stuff. My wife came from Peru like this - the family scrimped and saved. She worked every hour that she wasn’t studying.
Is there a tradition, I wonder, for right-wing PBers to marry foreigners?
That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Uk government targeted Nigeria as one of five countries (India, Indonesia, Saudi, Vietnam the others) to reach their target of 600,000 overseas students.
Lots of rich Nigerians want out of Nigeria.
I didn't know that, thank you.
This is why Jenrick, Braverman et al are so bonkers. This was a policy introduced in 2019 to get more Nigerian students. We get more Nigerian students, and they get angry about it. It is pathetic.
So on balance, we would like them to study via UK universities without actually coming to the UK.
Shame we rather let the OU fall apart to the extent we did, it sounds right up their street.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
Just realised that renowned Newcastle keeper Nick Pope and venerated analyst Matt Goodwin are one and the same. Or separated at birth. Newcastle United’s number one. Kent University’s number one. Uncanny.
North Korea on Tuesday made a rare mention of dissenting votes in recent elections, although analysts dismissed it as an attempt to portray an image of a normal society rather than signalling any meaningful increase of rights in the authoritarian state.
Reporting on the results of Sunday's election for deputies to regional people's assemblies, the North's state media said 0.09 percent and 0.13 percent voted against the selected candidates for the provincial and city councils, respectively.
It's a fascinating question for dictators and authoritarian regimes which still want to pretend democracy is involved - do you just make up the numbers entirely, or just massage them? If making them up do you aim for something believable? If you don't care about believability what level just takes the piss?
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
The state has almost no role in education in California, it's all delegated to counties and cities.
In this country the state has a major role in education. And it's still all epochally fucked up by idiots.
Not that it proves anything, I'm just reflecting that today is the day of the inquest into Ruth Perry's suicide and the Coroner's already criticised OFSTED for pressuring her into given a particular verdict and not asking awkward questions.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
I thought he was a playboy. Perhaps that what you meant.
Mitt Romney, eat your heart out:
Almost impossible to imagine in the UK because of the very small homes Brits are forced into.
Could easily be the garden of a 5 bed detached in Surrey
If it was a five bed detached in Surrey I imagine it would be more likely occupied by a pair of retired boomers and their housepets only, not a couple old enough to have young kids.
Plenty of 40 to 50 year old banker and corporate lawyer dads and their families in Surrey detached homes
This is a must-read from Sean Trende. It does not make happy reading.
Its America's funeral. They've had a good run.
More interesting is what President Trump does after winning the election. Yes we know he will arrest all of the opposition politicians and we know the GOP will implement laws to subjugate women. But you get what you vote for.
The unknown is his foreign policy. Will he join with Putin (as Mussolini joined with Hitler) to try and impose a far right alt-fact hegemony across the west? Will he nuke Iran or tell them how much he admires how they deal with dissidents?
Everything seems possible. Nuclear War. Russia Uber Alles. The end of NATO. What happened when an embittered man baby is restored to power and vows never to lose it again?
That the only person capable of opposing him is Biddy Biden tells you everything you need to know about how broken America is. "They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into, I say, Let Them Crash!"
When Trump says he's America First, he means it - probably unintentionally and unknowingly in the historical sense, but accurately all the same.
He's an isolationist. He will probably withdraw from NATO but even if he doesn't, he will functionally withdraw; he will make clear that he doesn't feel bound by Article V. He will give Putin free run while trying to extract trade quid pro quos (of which they'll rather more quids than quos; he's never been a good negotiator).
He certainly won't do anything about Iran, though he might make noises. He likes making noises. But he's scared of violence, which he doesn't understand so doesn't use it. We know that from last time, when he did have good cause to attack Iran (on a limited basis), and wimped out at the last minute.
Worth noting re Mussolini, the two didn't form any kind of alliance for 7 years - until France was on its knees in 1940 and Hitler was already master of northern Europe.
That was a very sobering article from Sean Trende. And, Sean Trende is probably the USA's leading psephologist, so good that he was one of the two who redrew Virginia's State Senate and Legislative boundaries, so that they were no longer gerrymandered.
The result of Trump's court cases and whether he is convicted and jailed or not will probably determine the next Presidential election.
Until that point polls are mainly of passing interest not much more
Trende’s view (and I agree) is that the court cases makes no difference.
They will make a difference if he gets his sorry arse thrown in the slammer
Just realised that renowned Newcastle keeper Nick Pope and venerated analyst Matt Goodwin are one and the same. Or separated at birth. Newcastle United’s number one. Kent University’s number one. Uncanny.
I would say Goodwin's tweets mark him out as a Number Two.
Japan has kept its economy going by working longer. This has mitigated - to some extent - the impact of population decline.
If I understand correctly, they’ve done quite OK in terms of GDP per worker basis.
I don't think any of this is true. Japanese people work long hours but with awful productivity. It's generally considered a problem, it in no way compensates for the declining working population. GDP per worker is... not great.
As far as things that actually work go, old people do often keep working after retirement, and a lot of them seem to prefer it to sitting around at home. Immigration is gradually increasing, but slowly and covid kind of clobbered the trend. And nobody really knows how far we'll get with robotics and AI, they might help, potentially a lot (at the risk of handing the conversation over to people who are enthusiastic about these topics but don't know anything about them).
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
No doubt this is part of it, but Nigeria has good universities but limited employment opportunities. Hence why Kemi Badenoch moved here from Nigeria aged 16, though she was entitled to citizenship as born prior to the 1981 Nationality act while her parents were in Wimbledon.
No doubt this is part of it, but Nigeria has good universities but limited employment opportunities. Hence why Kemi Badenoch moved here from Nigeria aged 16, though she was entitled to citizenship as born prior to the 1981 Nationality act while her parents were in Wimbledon.
Define "good universities"?
Only two Nigerian universities made the top 1,000 spot in the 2024 World Universities Ranking by the Times Higher Education (THE), a drop from three Nigerian universities last year. Thirty-nine Nigerian universities submitted data. However, only 15 were featured in the rankings (of the top 3000).
"Nikki Haley has been endorsed by a powerful conservative group founded by the Republican mega-donor Charles Koch, in a move that could dramatically shake up the 2024 Republican primary."
She has shortened further in last few days.
Now 8 for nomination and 10.5 for Presidency - implying heavy odds-on favourite to win if nominated.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
The state has almost no role in education in California, it's all delegated to counties and cities.
Actually, I am going to weigh in properly on this one.
California education is a terrible mixed bag depending on where you live. Local cities are essentially responsible for setting the curriculum and providing all the funding.
Beverly Hills, for example, raises its own property and sales tax, and is responsible for paying for its police and schools. Beverly Hills High is - therefore - incredibly opulent, with facilities that would make most British private schools blush.
We are in Los Angeles, the city, and we have decent - but not amazing - public schools.
Cross over to Inglewood, and it's a different story. Like Beverly Hills, Inglewood is a city. But its tax base is narrow and the value of its properties low. School funding there is going to be dramatically lower than in Beverly Hills.
That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Uk government targeted Nigeria as one of five countries (India, Indonesia, Saudi, Vietnam the others) to reach their target of 600,000 overseas students.
Lots of rich Nigerians want out of Nigeria.
I didn't know that, thank you.
This is why Jenrick, Braverman et al are so bonkers. This was a policy introduced in 2019 to get more Nigerian students. We get more Nigerian students, and they get angry about it. It is pathetic.
So on balance, we would like them to study via UK universities without actually coming to the UK.
Shame we rather let the OU fall apart to the extent we did, it sounds right up their street.
Chinese students have some of the lowest rates for bringing dependents and the highest return rates. It varies a lot between countries of origin.
"Nikki Haley has been endorsed by a powerful conservative group founded by the Republican mega-donor Charles Koch, in a move that could dramatically shake up the 2024 Republican primary.
She shortened futher in last few days.
Now 8 for nomination and 10.5 for Presidency - implying heavy odds-on favourite to win if nominated.
Problem for her and DeSantis is Trump would almost certainly run as an Independent if he is not GOP nominee, splitting the conservative vote and handing Biden re election on a plate under the US winner takes all EC system
Understanding Trump: I convinced myself that I could predict about 90 percent of what Nancy Pelosi would do by studying Mike Royko's "Boss" and "The Last Hurrah" (the book, not the movie), for their insights on machine politics.
Trump and Calvin have short attention spans, fascination with anything on TV, the unwillingness to follow rules, name calling, and so on, and so on. (And they are both losers, more often than not.)
In one daily strip, there is the following dialog: Calvin: "What do you think is the secret to happiness? Is it money, power, or fame?"
"I'd choose money. If you have enough money you can buy power and fame. That way you'd have it all and be really happy."
"Happiness is being famous for your financial ability to indulge in every kind of excess."
Hobbes: "I suppose that's one way to define it."
Calvin: "The part I think I'd like best is crushing people who get in my way."
Sadly, that understanding doesn't give me much ability to predict what Trump will do, since Calvin will almost always do whatever he wants to do -- at the moment.
(*Which I found on page 35 of a collection, "The Authoritative Calvin and Hobbes".)
"Nikki Haley has been endorsed by a powerful conservative group founded by the Republican mega-donor Charles Koch, in a move that could dramatically shake up the 2024 Republican primary.
She shortened futher in last few days.
Now 8 for nomination and 10.5 for Presidency - implying heavy odds-on favourite to win if nominated.
Problem for her and DeSantis is Trump would almost certainly run as an Independent if he is not GOP nominee, splitting the conservative vote and handing Biden re election on a plate under the US winner takes all EC system
Haley can promise to keep Trump out of jail if elected.
That's a pretty good incentive for him to tow the line.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
The state has almost no role in education in California, it's all delegated to counties and cities.
Actually, I am going to weigh in properly on this one.
California education is a terrible mixed bag depending on where you live. Local cities are essentially responsible for setting the curriculum and providing all the funding.
Beverly Hills, for example, raises its own property and sales tax, and is responsible for paying for its police and schools. Beverly Hills High is - therefore - incredibly opulent, with facilities that would make most British private schools blush.
We are in Los Angeles, the city, and we have decent - but not amazing - public schools.
Cross over to Inglewood, and it's a different story. Like Beverly Hills, Inglewood is a city. But its tax base is narrow and the value of its properties low. School funding there is going to be dramatically lower than in Beverly Hills.
There are really two classes of people in the US. The top 70% and the rest. Life is very very good for the top 70%: low crime, high longevity, big houses, high incomes. I’ll leave aside the bad food, but California is a possible exception that anyway.
It’s really, really shite for the bottom 30%.
In Britain, life is very good for the top 10%, dreary for the middle 80%, and shite for the bottom 10%.
That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Uk government targeted Nigeria as one of five countries (India, Indonesia, Saudi, Vietnam the others) to reach their target of 600,000 overseas students.
Lots of rich Nigerians want out of Nigeria.
I didn't know that, thank you.
This is why Jenrick, Braverman et al are so bonkers. This was a policy introduced in 2019 to get more Nigerian students. We get more Nigerian students, and they get angry about it. It is pathetic.
So on balance, we would like them to study via UK universities without actually coming to the UK.
Shame we rather let the OU fall apart to the extent we did, it sounds right up their street.
The OU and the BBC ought to have been more significant national assets in the digital era.
That's quite an amazing statistic when you consider the relative populations of Nigeria compared to India. I'd expect a chart like that for the UK in 2150 maybe but not now !
Why Nigeria? As opposed to, say, Kenya or Uganda or the many other African countries?
Uk government targeted Nigeria as one of five countries (India, Indonesia, Saudi, Vietnam the others) to reach their target of 600,000 overseas students.
Lots of rich Nigerians want out of Nigeria.
I didn't know that, thank you.
This is why Jenrick, Braverman et al are so bonkers. This was a policy introduced in 2019 to get more Nigerian students. We get more Nigerian students, and they get angry about it. It is pathetic.
So on balance, we would like them to study via UK universities without actually coming to the UK.
Shame we rather let the OU fall apart to the extent we did, it sounds right up their street.
Chinese students have some of the lowest rates for bringing dependents and the highest return rates. It varies a lot between countries of origin.
Do the Chinese not need this kind of visa or do they essentially dominate the grey bars?
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
The state has almost no role in education in California, it's all delegated to counties and cities.
Actually, I am going to weigh in properly on this one.
California education is a terrible mixed bag depending on where you live. Local cities are essentially responsible for setting the curriculum and providing all the funding.
Beverly Hills, for example, raises its own property and sales tax, and is responsible for paying for its police and schools. Beverly Hills High is - therefore - incredibly opulent, with facilities that would make most British private schools blush.
We are in Los Angeles, the city, and we have decent - but not amazing - public schools.
Cross over to Inglewood, and it's a different story. Like Beverly Hills, Inglewood is a city. But its tax base is narrow and the value of its properties low. School funding there is going to be dramatically lower than in Beverly Hills.
There are really two classes of people in the US. The top 70% and the rest. Life is very very good for the top 70%: low crime, high longevity, big houses, high incomes. I’ll leave aside the bad food, but California is a possible exception that anyway.
It’s really, really shite for the bottom 30%.
In Britain, life is very good for the top 10%, dreary for the middle 80%, and shite for the bottom 10%.
Your numbers may vary…
Even the bottom 10% don't have to worry about health care costs.
No doubt this is part of it, but Nigeria has good universities but limited employment opportunities. Hence why Kemi Badenoch moved here from Nigeria aged 16, though she was entitled to citizenship as born prior to the 1981 Nationality act while her parents were in Wimbledon.
Define "good universities"?
Only two Nigerian universities made the top 1,000 spot in the 2024 World Universities Ranking by the Times Higher Education (THE), a drop from three Nigerian universities last year. Thirty-nine Nigerian universities submitted data. However, only 15 were featured in the rankings (of the top 3000).
In comparison India has 91.
Good at undergraduate level, hence they want to go postgraduate elsewhere.
THE rankings are heavily based on postgraduates doing research.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
The state has almost no role in education in California, it's all delegated to counties and cities.
Actually, I am going to weigh in properly on this one.
California education is a terrible mixed bag depending on where you live. Local cities are essentially responsible for setting the curriculum and providing all the funding.
Beverly Hills, for example, raises its own property and sales tax, and is responsible for paying for its police and schools. Beverly Hills High is - therefore - incredibly opulent, with facilities that would make most British private schools blush.
We are in Los Angeles, the city, and we have decent - but not amazing - public schools.
Cross over to Inglewood, and it's a different story. Like Beverly Hills, Inglewood is a city. But its tax base is narrow and the value of its properties low. School funding there is going to be dramatically lower than in Beverly Hills.
There are really two classes of people in the US. The top 70% and the rest. Life is very very good for the top 70%: low crime, high longevity, big houses, high incomes. I’ll leave aside the bad food, but California is a possible exception that anyway.
It’s really, really shite for the bottom 30%.
In Britain, life is very good for the top 10%, dreary for the middle 80%, and shite for the bottom 10%.
Your numbers may vary…
Even the bottom 10% don't have to worry about health care costs.
No doubt this is part of it, but Nigeria has good universities but limited employment opportunities. Hence why Kemi Badenoch moved here from Nigeria aged 16, though she was entitled to citizenship as born prior to the 1981 Nationality act while her parents were in Wimbledon.
Define "good universities"?
Only two Nigerian universities made the top 1,000 spot in the 2024 World Universities Ranking by the Times Higher Education (THE), a drop from three Nigerian universities last year. Thirty-nine Nigerian universities submitted data. However, only 15 were featured in the rankings (of the top 3000).
In comparison India has 91.
Good at undergraduate level, hence they want to go postgraduate elsewhere.
THE rankings are heavily based on postgraduates doing research.
I understand the World Rankings focus, but evidence of high quality undergrad?
And just saying lots come to UK to do study isn't really evidence, particularly masters courses are now cash cows for UK universities.
No doubt this is part of it, but Nigeria has good universities but limited employment opportunities. Hence why Kemi Badenoch moved here from Nigeria aged 16, though she was entitled to citizenship as born prior to the 1981 Nationality act while her parents were in Wimbledon.
Define "good universities"?
Only two Nigerian universities made the top 1,000 spot in the 2024 World Universities Ranking by the Times Higher Education (THE), a drop from three Nigerian universities last year. Thirty-nine Nigerian universities submitted data. However, only 15 were featured in the rankings (of the top 3000).
In comparison India has 91.
Good at undergraduate level, hence they want to go postgraduate elsewhere.
THE rankings are heavily based on postgraduates doing research.
I understand the World Rankings focus, but evidence of high quality undergrad?
Personal experience with Nigerian students doing PG degrees.
"Nikki Haley has been endorsed by a powerful conservative group founded by the Republican mega-donor Charles Koch, in a move that could dramatically shake up the 2024 Republican primary.
She shortened futher in last few days.
Now 8 for nomination and 10.5 for Presidency - implying heavy odds-on favourite to win if nominated.
Problem for her and DeSantis is Trump would almost certainly run as an Independent if he is not GOP nominee, splitting the conservative vote and handing Biden re election on a plate under the US winner takes all EC system
Haley can promise to keep Trump out of jail if elected.
That's a pretty good incentive for him to tow the line.
No doubt this is part of it, but Nigeria has good universities but limited employment opportunities. Hence why Kemi Badenoch moved here from Nigeria aged 16, though she was entitled to citizenship as born prior to the 1981 Nationality act while her parents were in Wimbledon.
Define "good universities"?
Only two Nigerian universities made the top 1,000 spot in the 2024 World Universities Ranking by the Times Higher Education (THE), a drop from three Nigerian universities last year. Thirty-nine Nigerian universities submitted data. However, only 15 were featured in the rankings (of the top 3000).
In comparison India has 91.
Good at undergraduate level, hence they want to go postgraduate elsewhere.
THE rankings are heavily based on postgraduates doing research.
I understand the World Rankings focus, but evidence of high quality undergrad?
Personal experience with Nigerian students doing PG degrees.
Ok, so not actual hard factual evidence. Its fine to give anecdotal accounts, but you made quite a definite statement there.
Not saying you are incorrect, but I was interested to know if some evidence to back that up.
Where as we know India has some elite institutions, particularly across STEM sector, in both undergrad, postgrad, backed up not just rankings (with nearly 100 highly ranked), but also in the world of things like tech have huge numbers of graduates from India (and not just because they are cheap, they are in prime jobs in places like US).
"Nikki Haley has been endorsed by a powerful conservative group founded by the Republican mega-donor Charles Koch, in a move that could dramatically shake up the 2024 Republican primary.
She shortened futher in last few days.
Now 8 for nomination and 10.5 for Presidency - implying heavy odds-on favourite to win if nominated.
Problem for her and DeSantis is Trump would almost certainly run as an Independent if he is not GOP nominee, splitting the conservative vote and handing Biden re election on a plate under the US winner takes all EC system
Haley can promise to keep Trump out of jail if elected.
That's a pretty good incentive for him to tow the line.
"Nikki Haley has been endorsed by a powerful conservative group founded by the Republican mega-donor Charles Koch, in a move that could dramatically shake up the 2024 Republican primary.
She shortened futher in last few days.
Now 8 for nomination and 10.5 for Presidency - implying heavy odds-on favourite to win if nominated.
Problem for her and DeSantis is Trump would almost certainly run as an Independent if he is not GOP nominee, splitting the conservative vote and handing Biden re election on a plate under the US winner takes all EC system
Haley can promise to keep Trump out of jail if elected.
That's a pretty good incentive for him to tow the line.
Trump's ego would just reply he could do that himself if elected again as President.
For Trump the Republican party is just a vehicle for his ambitions, as the Tory party was for Boris, if he doesn't head it he couldn't care less about it and will go his own way.
Even if he lost as an Independent and handed the election to Biden, Trump would still likely get the highest 3rd party vote since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 (indeed if Boris headed Reform too it would likely easily overtake the LDs for 3rd)
No doubt this is part of it, but Nigeria has good universities but limited employment opportunities. Hence why Kemi Badenoch moved here from Nigeria aged 16, though she was entitled to citizenship as born prior to the 1981 Nationality act while her parents were in Wimbledon.
Define "good universities"?
Only two Nigerian universities made the top 1,000 spot in the 2024 World Universities Ranking by the Times Higher Education (THE), a drop from three Nigerian universities last year. Thirty-nine Nigerian universities submitted data. However, only 15 were featured in the rankings (of the top 3000).
In comparison India has 91.
Good at undergraduate level, hence they want to go postgraduate elsewhere.
THE rankings are heavily based on postgraduates doing research.
I understand the World Rankings focus, but evidence of high quality undergrad?
And just saying lots come to UK to do study isn't really evidence, particularly masters courses are now cash cows for UK universities.
Certainly so. Domestic fees have shrunk with inflation enough to make domestic undergraduates a low priority. The money is in overseas students, with overseas postgrad applicants the most lucrative.
The ultimate British University will be Starbucks University Business School. Selling the lifestyle to domestic students taught by post docs on zero hours contracts, and overpriced MBAs to overseas postgraduates.
"Nikki Haley has been endorsed by a powerful conservative group founded by the Republican mega-donor Charles Koch, in a move that could dramatically shake up the 2024 Republican primary.
She shortened futher in last few days.
Now 8 for nomination and 10.5 for Presidency - implying heavy odds-on favourite to win if nominated.
Problem for her and DeSantis is Trump would almost certainly run as an Independent if he is not GOP nominee, splitting the conservative vote and handing Biden re election on a plate under the US winner takes all EC system
Haley can promise to keep Trump out of jail if elected.
That's a pretty good incentive for him to tow the line.
Trump's ego would just reply he could do that himself if elected again as President.
For Trump the Republican party is just a vehicle for his ambitions, as the Tory party was for Boris, if he doesn't head it he couldn't care less about it and will go his own way.
Even if he lost as an Independent and handed the election to Biden, Trump would still likely get the highest 3rd party vote since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 (indeed if Boris headed Reform too it would likely easily overtake the LDs for 3rd)
If Boris led Reform it would likely help to push the LDs into second, ahead of the conservatives (and SNP of course).
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
The state has almost no role in education in California, it's all delegated to counties and cities.
Actually, I am going to weigh in properly on this one.
California education is a terrible mixed bag depending on where you live. Local cities are essentially responsible for setting the curriculum and providing all the funding.
Beverly Hills, for example, raises its own property and sales tax, and is responsible for paying for its police and schools. Beverly Hills High is - therefore - incredibly opulent, with facilities that would make most British private schools blush.
We are in Los Angeles, the city, and we have decent - but not amazing - public schools.
Cross over to Inglewood, and it's a different story. Like Beverly Hills, Inglewood is a city. But its tax base is narrow and the value of its properties low. School funding there is going to be dramatically lower than in Beverly Hills.
There are really two classes of people in the US. The top 70% and the rest. Life is very very good for the top 70%: low crime, high longevity, big houses, high incomes. I’ll leave aside the bad food, but California is a possible exception that anyway.
It’s really, really shite for the bottom 30%.
In Britain, life is very good for the top 10%, dreary for the middle 80%, and shite for the bottom 10%.
Your numbers may vary…
Even the bottom 10% don't have to worry about health care costs.
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
But he's not particularly involved in education - and those could be seen as fairly meaningless sops to his base. In fact, California might be a decent example of how American suspicion of higher levels of government creates some of the more notorious extremes of 'woke' (and 'anti-woke', or Bible belt Christian radicalism) politics for that matter.
In that when federal or state government butts out fairly comprehensively, there's no incentive to compromise and agree standards or policies everyone can live with. Hence you get certain California university towns that do things that look utterly bonkers, and places in Alabama that think Gilead was an instruction manual.
Also true of its hypercapitalist attitude to everything - you can look at the turn to 'wokeness' in activist circles as a case of following the money. Which in recent years, with social media and the attention economy follows performative, radical, identity-based activism over the mildly boring class-based stuff corporations aren't that keen on as it might hit their bottom line.
The Israeli Minister of National Security and Leader of the “Otzma Yehudit” Party, Itamar Ben-Gvir has stated that he and at least 6 Members of the Knesset will Leave the Coalition Government if any kind of Permanent Ceasefire is Agreed upon with Hamas; further stating that Hamas must be Totally Eliminated if the “Black Sabbath Disaster” is to not happen again.
No doubt this is part of it, but Nigeria has good universities but limited employment opportunities. Hence why Kemi Badenoch moved here from Nigeria aged 16, though she was entitled to citizenship as born prior to the 1981 Nationality act while her parents were in Wimbledon.
Define "good universities"?
Only two Nigerian universities made the top 1,000 spot in the 2024 World Universities Ranking by the Times Higher Education (THE), a drop from three Nigerian universities last year. Thirty-nine Nigerian universities submitted data. However, only 15 were featured in the rankings (of the top 3000).
In comparison India has 91.
Good at undergraduate level, hence they want to go postgraduate elsewhere.
THE rankings are heavily based on postgraduates doing research.
I understand the World Rankings focus, but evidence of high quality undergrad?
Personal experience with Nigerian students doing PG degrees.
Ok, so not actual hard factual evidence. Its fine to give anecdotal accounts, but you made quite a definite statement there.
Not saying you are incorrect, but I was interested to know if some evidence to back that up.
Where as we know India has some elite institutions, particularly across STEM sector, in both undergrad, postgrad, backed up not just rankings (with nearly 100 highly ranked), but also in the world of things like tech have huge numbers of graduates from India (and not just because they are cheap, they are in prime jobs in places like US).
This paper is from the USA, but highlights the high academic achievements of first generation Nigerian-Americans, and even higher for Second generation.
I assume that the government is loathe to reduce the number of international students because without their fees many (or most?) universities would suffer severe financial stress (and, of course, Vice Chancellors' inflated salaries may come under scrutiny).
I also assume that if international students couldn't bring their dependants with them, they wouldn't just shrug their shoulders and come anyway. They'd go elsewhere.
It's the Final of Bake Off tonight. The first all male one (so much for 'woke' ch4). It's tough to call but I incline to Dan. Cheery guy, resilient, knows his oven. Dyor though. Don't go piling on based on my say-so.
Dan came last. Just did not perform at all. Apologies to the entire community.
Sample: "On September 21, 2023, the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at Brookings hosted an engaging conversation between Melissa Kearney and Jim Tankersley, White House correspondent for The New York Times, centered around Kearney’s new book, “The Two-Parent Privilege: How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling Behind.”
Tankersley and Kearney discussed her book’s central thesis, which describes the profound impact of family structure, particularly marriage, on child well-being. She emphasized that the decline in marriage rates, which is most pronounced among those outside the college-educated class, has disrupted the traditional connection between marriage and child-rearing."
Or, to put it in PB terms, children do better if their parents follow the example set by, for instance, OldKingCole (and some other frequent commenters.).
I find it hard to believe De Santis would beat Newsom in a real national election.
He would, Newsom is a woke elitist coastal liberal of the type the rustbelt swing states rejected in 2016 when they voted for Trump over Hillary. Biden has at least proved he can connect with rustbelt voters with his 2020 win
In his personal life, Newsom is the most traditional All American candidate you could imagine. I think he could transcend the woke elitist label.
But he's not particularly involved in education - and those could be seen as fairly meaningless sops to his base. In fact, California might be a decent example of how American suspicion of higher levels of government creates some of the more notorious extremes of 'woke' (and 'anti-woke', or Bible belt Christian radicalism) politics for that matter.
In that when federal or state government butts out fairly comprehensively, there's no incentive to compromise and agree standards or policies everyone can live with. Hence you get certain California university towns that do things that look utterly bonkers, and places in Alabama that think Gilead was an instruction manual.
Also true of its hypercapitalist attitude to everything - you can look at the turn to 'wokeness' in activist circles as a case of following the money. Which in recent years, with social media and the attention economy follows performative, radical, identity-based activism over the mildly boring class-based stuff corporations aren't that keen on as it might hit their bottom line.
And the latter policy may go down well in California but would be a disaster in the rustbelt swing states more socially conservative than California but more populist and less pro globalist/free trade economically and with stronger manufacturing unions
The Israeli Minister of National Security and Leader of the “Otzma Yehudit” Party, Itamar Ben-Gvir has stated that he and at least 6 Members of the Knesset will Leave the Coalition Government if any kind of Permanent Ceasefire is Agreed upon with Hamas; further stating that Hamas must be Totally Eliminated if the “Black Sabbath Disaster” is to not happen again.
The party has been widely described in the international press as an extremist, ultranationalist and racist organisation supporting Jewish supremacy and has been described by multiple sources, including the Israeli sociologist Eva Illouz, as a "Jewish fascist group".
Sample: "On September 21, 2023, the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at Brookings hosted an engaging conversation between Melissa Kearney and Jim Tankersley, White House correspondent for The New York Times, centered around Kearney’s new book, “The Two-Parent Privilege: How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling Behind.”
Tankersley and Kearney discussed her book’s central thesis, which describes the profound impact of family structure, particularly marriage, on child well-being. She emphasized that the decline in marriage rates, which is most pronounced among those outside the college-educated class, has disrupted the traditional connection between marriage and child-rearing."
Or, to put it in PB terms, children do better if their parents follow the example set by, for instance, OldKingCole (and some other frequent commenters.).
This is not the reason. At least, not in aggregate.
The American system is set up to maintain a 30% underclass in order to reduce tax on the rest, and especially the richest.
The Israeli Minister of National Security and Leader of the “Otzma Yehudit” Party, Itamar Ben-Gvir has stated that he and at least 6 Members of the Knesset will Leave the Coalition Government if any kind of Permanent Ceasefire is Agreed upon with Hamas; further stating that Hamas must be Totally Eliminated if the “Black Sabbath Disaster” is to not happen again.
This is from a profile of him back when he first entered the Israeli cabinet:
In 1995, at the height of the Oslo Peace Accords, when he was 19, Ben-Gvir showed TV cameras the bonnet ornament from then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s car, declaring: “We got to his car. We’ll get to him, too.” A few weeks later, Rabin was assassinated by an Israeli ultranationalist at a rally in support of the peace agreement and the planned withdrawal from Palestinian territory.
Ben-Gvir was also notorious for displaying on his wall a picture of Baruch Goldstein, the American Israeli who massacred 29 Palestinian worshippers in Hebron in 1994.
The Israeli Minister of National Security and Leader of the “Otzma Yehudit” Party, Itamar Ben-Gvir has stated that he and at least 6 Members of the Knesset will Leave the Coalition Government if any kind of Permanent Ceasefire is Agreed upon with Hamas; further stating that Hamas must be Totally Eliminated if the “Black Sabbath Disaster” is to not happen again.
This is from a profile of him back when he first entered the Israeli cabinet:
In 1995, at the height of the Oslo Peace Accords, when he was 19, Ben-Gvir showed TV cameras the bonnet ornament from then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s car, declaring: “We got to his car. We’ll get to him, too.” A few weeks later, Rabin was assassinated by an Israeli ultranationalist at a rally in support of the peace agreement and the planned withdrawal from Palestinian territory.
Ben-Gvir was also notorious for displaying on his wall a picture of Baruch Goldstein, the American Israeli who massacred 29 Palestinian worshippers in Hebron in 1994.
Sample: "On September 21, 2023, the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at Brookings hosted an engaging conversation between Melissa Kearney and Jim Tankersley, White House correspondent for The New York Times, centered around Kearney’s new book, “The Two-Parent Privilege: How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling Behind.”
Tankersley and Kearney discussed her book’s central thesis, which describes the profound impact of family structure, particularly marriage, on child well-being. She emphasized that the decline in marriage rates, which is most pronounced among those outside the college-educated class, has disrupted the traditional connection between marriage and child-rearing."
Or, to put it in PB terms, children do better if their parents follow the example set by, for instance, OldKingCole (and some other frequent commenters.).
This is not the reason. At least, not in aggregate.
The American system is set up to maintain a 30% underclass in order to reduce tax on the rest, and especially the richest.
The opposite is true in a country like Denmark.
Britain is somewhere in the middle.
Also slavery still exists in America - they just call it prison now.
Comments
It's not like they'll suddenly be empty but it'll be a rapid change.
https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/da5092dc-en/index.html?itemId=/content/component/da5092dc-en
As for baby booms, how about post-WW2 here? The dependency ratio was surely worsened by the war disproportionately hitting the young and healthy.
1 Euro houses etc.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
I suspect the India Trade Deal is hitting the buffers because they wanted more visas and in the current climate that wouldn’t be a good look.
Lots of rich Nigerians want out of Nigeria.
(a) rents and house prices were significantly higher in 1945 than 1939 thanks to the destruction of housing stock in the war. So, people had lots of babies despite much higher costs, which is a curious and counter-intuitive.
(b) there simply weren't a lot of old people in 1945, and the proportion of government spending on healthcare and pensions for the oldies was absolutely negligible.
(Last episode of 'The Century of the Self', if anyone is looking)
This has mitigated - to some extent - the impact of population decline.
If I understand correctly, they’ve done quite OK in terms of GDP per worker basis.
They'll be wanting HS rail next. Madness. That was last week.
This is serious, “climb the economic ladder” stuff. My wife came from Peru like this - the family scrimped and saved. She worked every hour that she wasn’t studying.
@Malmesbury
@Casino_Royale
@Sandpit
@MaxPB
Perhaps that what you meant.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-12799865/Is-Chinas-mystery-pneumonia-sweeping-Europe-Netherlands-sees-alarming-surge-similar-illness-children-terrifying-video-shows-hazmat-clad-workers-China-disinfecting-schools.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/12/california-public-schools-gavin-newsom-woke/
They are making tentative efforts.
How can Korea become more migrant-friendly?
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/11/718_364015.html
Japan embarks on journey to become more open to immigration
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2023/11/177_362195.html
Centrist liberal on the political axis would be my best guess.
Shame we rather let the OU fall apart to the extent we did, it sounds right up their street.
North Korea on Tuesday made a rare mention of dissenting votes in recent elections, although analysts dismissed it as an attempt to portray an image of a normal society rather than signalling any meaningful increase of rights in the authoritarian state.
Reporting on the results of Sunday's election for deputies to regional people's assemblies, the North's state media said 0.09 percent and 0.13 percent voted against the selected candidates for the provincial and city councils, respectively.
"Among the voters who took part in the ballot-casting, 99.91 percent voted for the candidates for deputies to provincial people's assemblies.... (and) 99.87 percent voted for candidates for deputies to city and county people's assemblies," state news agency KCNA said.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/north-korea-cites-rare-dissent-elections-even-99-back-candidates-2023-11-28/
It's a fascinating question for dictators and authoritarian regimes which still want to pretend democracy is involved - do you just make up the numbers entirely, or just massage them? If making them up do you aim for something believable? If you don't care about believability what level just takes the piss?
Not that it proves anything, I'm just reflecting that today is the day of the inquest into Ruth Perry's suicide and the Coroner's already criticised OFSTED for pressuring her into given a particular verdict and not asking awkward questions.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-12457637/The-ancient-bridge-linked-England-Wales-Archaeologists-discover-2-000-year-old-wooden-structure-River-Wye.html
Will be interested to see the excavation report. Sounds as if it was a dig like no other!
As far as things that actually work go, old people do often keep working after retirement, and a lot of them seem to prefer it to sitting around at home. Immigration is gradually increasing, but slowly and covid kind of clobbered the trend. And nobody really knows how far we'll get with robotics and AI, they might help, potentially a lot (at the risk of handing the conversation over to people who are enthusiastic about these topics but don't know anything about them).
https://www.them.us/story/california-sanctuary-state-trans-youth-gavin-newsom
https://apnews.com/article/religion-california-san-francisco-sacramento-gavin-newsom-d6dd0f163797de25cb38ab8419504afb
On the other hand overseas students are allowed 20 hours paid work in term time, unlimited in holidays. Dependents can work full time all year.
https://www.ed.ac.uk/student-administration/immigration/dependants
No doubt this is part of it, but Nigeria has good universities but limited employment opportunities. Hence why Kemi Badenoch moved here from Nigeria aged 16, though she was entitled to citizenship as born prior to the 1981 Nationality act while her parents were in Wimbledon.
Only two Nigerian universities made the top 1,000 spot in the 2024 World Universities Ranking by the Times Higher Education (THE), a drop from three Nigerian universities last year. Thirty-nine Nigerian universities submitted data. However, only 15 were featured in the rankings (of the top 3000).
In comparison India has 91.
"Nikki Haley has been endorsed by a powerful conservative group founded by the Republican mega-donor Charles Koch, in a move that could dramatically shake up the 2024 Republican primary."
She has shortened further in last few days.
Now 8 for nomination and 10.5 for Presidency - implying heavy odds-on favourite to win if nominated.
California education is a terrible mixed bag depending on where you live. Local cities are essentially responsible for setting the curriculum and providing all the funding.
Beverly Hills, for example, raises its own property and sales tax, and is responsible for paying for its police and schools. Beverly Hills High is - therefore - incredibly opulent, with facilities
that would make most British private schools blush.
We are in Los Angeles, the city, and we have decent - but not amazing - public schools.
Cross over to Inglewood, and it's a different story. Like Beverly Hills, Inglewood is a city. But its tax base is narrow and the value of its properties low. School funding there is going to be dramatically lower than in Beverly Hills.
For Trump, I have come to the conclusion that one of the best ways to understand him is to study the Calvin and Hobbes cartoons. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calvin_and_Hobbes
(You can see re-runs here: https://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/2023/11/28 (And other places.)
Trump and Calvin have short attention spans, fascination with anything on TV, the unwillingness to follow rules, name calling, and so on, and so on. (And they are both losers, more often than not.)
In one daily strip, there is the following dialog:
Calvin: "What do you think is the secret to happiness? Is it money, power, or fame?"
"I'd choose money. If you have enough money you can buy power and fame. That way you'd have it all and be really happy."
"Happiness is being famous for your financial ability to indulge in every kind of excess."
Hobbes: "I suppose that's one way to define it."
Calvin: "The part I think I'd like best is crushing people who get in my way."
Sadly, that understanding doesn't give me much ability to predict what Trump will do, since Calvin will almost always do whatever he wants to do -- at the moment.
(*Which I found on page 35 of a collection, "The Authoritative Calvin and Hobbes".)
That's a pretty good incentive for him to tow the line.
The top 70% and the rest. Life is very very good for the top 70%: low crime, high longevity, big houses, high incomes. I’ll leave aside the bad food, but California is a possible exception that anyway.
It’s really, really shite for the bottom 30%.
In Britain, life is very good for the top 10%, dreary for the middle 80%, and shite for the bottom 10%.
Your numbers may vary…
EDIT: Ah, dependents. OK, ignore that.
THE rankings are heavily based on postgraduates doing research.
And just saying lots come to UK to do study isn't really evidence, particularly masters courses are now cash cows for UK universities.
Not saying you are incorrect, but I was interested to know if some evidence to back that up.
Where as we know India has some elite institutions, particularly across STEM sector, in both undergrad, postgrad, backed up not just rankings (with nearly 100 highly ranked), but also in the world of things like tech have huge numbers of graduates from India (and not just because they are cheap, they are in prime jobs in places like US).
For Trump the Republican party is just a vehicle for his ambitions, as the Tory party was for Boris, if he doesn't head it he couldn't care less about it and will go his own way.
Even if he lost as an Independent and handed the election to Biden, Trump would still likely get the highest 3rd party vote since Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 (indeed if Boris headed Reform too it would likely easily overtake the LDs for 3rd)
The ultimate British University will be Starbucks University Business School. Selling the lifestyle to domestic students taught by post docs on zero hours contracts, and overpriced MBAs to overseas postgraduates.
In that when federal or state government butts out fairly comprehensively, there's no incentive to compromise and agree standards or policies everyone can live with. Hence you get certain California university towns that do things that look utterly bonkers, and places in Alabama that think Gilead was an instruction manual.
Also true of its hypercapitalist attitude to everything - you can look at the turn to 'wokeness' in activist circles as a case of following the money. Which in recent years, with social media and the attention economy follows performative, radical, identity-based activism over the mildly boring class-based stuff corporations aren't that keen on as it might hit their bottom line.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/23780231211001971
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/key-takeaways-from-the-discussion-on-the-two-parent-privilege/
Sample: "On September 21, 2023, the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity at Brookings hosted an engaging conversation between Melissa Kearney and Jim Tankersley, White House correspondent for The New York Times, centered around Kearney’s new book, “The Two-Parent Privilege: How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling Behind.”
Tankersley and Kearney discussed her book’s central thesis, which describes the profound impact of family structure, particularly marriage, on child well-being. She emphasized that the decline in marriage rates, which is most pronounced among those outside the college-educated class, has disrupted the traditional connection between marriage and child-rearing."
Or, to put it in PB terms, children do better if their parents follow the example set by, for instance, OldKingCole (and some other frequent commenters.).
The party has been widely described in the international press as an extremist, ultranationalist and racist organisation supporting Jewish supremacy and has been described by multiple sources, including the Israeli sociologist Eva Illouz, as a "Jewish fascist group".
At least, not in aggregate.
The American system is set up to maintain a 30% underclass in order to reduce tax on the rest, and especially the richest.
The opposite is true in a country like Denmark.
Britain is somewhere in the middle.
In 1995, at the height of the Oslo Peace Accords, when he was 19, Ben-Gvir showed TV cameras the bonnet ornament from then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin’s car, declaring: “We got to his car. We’ll get to him, too.” A few weeks later, Rabin was assassinated by an Israeli ultranationalist at a rally in support of the peace agreement and the planned withdrawal from Palestinian territory.
Ben-Gvir was also notorious for displaying on his wall a picture of Baruch Goldstein, the American Israeli who massacred 29 Palestinian worshippers in Hebron in 1994.