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WH2024: the early primary States – politicalbetting.com

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    TOPPING said:

    As for why the fuck anyone cares, it all comes down to the powerful vs the powerless dynamic we have discussed.

    In particular the left allies itself with anyone it thinks is powerless, regardless of any of that entity's other failings.

    The left championed Israel in its early years of existence as it was perceived to be weak and now champions Hamas for the same reasons.

    Are you accusing the Left of always being on the side of the powerless?

    I'm suing. Where should I serve papers please?
    You're ignoring two key words in the phrase "anyone it thinks is powerless".
    Well you have to go with what you think. We all do that don't we?
    Yes, but you have to recognise that what you think is only an opinion and that you could be mistaken.
    A good Liberal writes!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Andy_JS said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/11/28/no_really_biden_is_in_trouble_against_trump.html

    This is a must-read from Sean Trende. It does not make happy reading.

    Its America's funeral. They've had a good run.

    More interesting is what President Trump does after winning the election. Yes we know he will arrest all of the opposition politicians and we know the GOP will implement laws to subjugate women. But you get what you vote for.

    The unknown is his foreign policy. Will he join with Putin (as Mussolini joined with Hitler) to try and impose a far right alt-fact hegemony across the west? Will he nuke Iran or tell them how much he admires how they deal with dissidents?

    Everything seems possible. Nuclear War. Russia Uber Alles. The end of NATO. What happened when an embittered man baby is restored to power and vows never to lose it again?

    That the only person capable of opposing him is Biddy Biden tells you everything you need to know about how broken America is. "They bought their tickets, they knew what they were getting into, I say, Let Them Crash!"
    I don't believe any of that. If Trump wins, he'll serve 4 years as president, and then everything will go back to normal afterwards.
    Things haven't reverted to normal after his first term in office.
    Unless post Trump 16 this is now normal. Bad thought but you have to give it houseroom.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,793
    Sean_F said:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/11/28/no_really_biden_is_in_trouble_against_trump.html

    This is a must-read from Sean Trende. It does not make happy reading.

    Well, yes. As I keep saying, we keep underestimating Trump. It *is* too early to tell and developments during the primaries are important. But if you are going to make a prediction at this point, on the polls we have now, then you have to say "Trump to win". I know PB has an animus against the balding insurrectionist but dat's the numbers kiddies.

    The big things that could affect this are:
    • Whether RFKJr running as an independent makes a difference. Depending how that falls he could deliver a Trump landslide or a Biden win.
    • How the independents fall. They hate Trump because of Roe vs Wade and insurrection, which explains why the Dems are overperforming. But if they change their mind...
    • Other stuff. Biden have lost the lead amongst Blacks, Jews/Muslims may also change due to Israel/Hamas, stuff stuff stuff.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/11/28/no_really_biden_is_in_trouble_against_trump.html

    This is a must-read from Sean Trende. It does not make happy reading.

    Well, yes. As I keep saying, we keep underestimating Trump. It *is* too early to tell and developments during the primaries are important. But if you are going to make a prediction at this point, on the polls we have now, then you have to say "Trump to win". I know PB has an animus against the balding insurrectionist but dat's the numbers kiddies.

    The big things that could affect this are:
    • Whether RFKJr running as an independent makes a difference. Depending how that falls he could deliver a Trump landslide or a Biden win.
    • How the independents fall. They hate Trump because of Roe vs Wade and insurrection, which explains why the Dems are overperforming. But if they change their mind...
    • Other stuff. Biden have lost the lead amongst Blacks, Jews/Muslims may also change due to Israel/Hamas, stuff stuff stuff.
    Disagree about the PB consensus. I think Donald Trump is highly unlikely to regain the WH and in that I'm almost alone.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    Andy_JS said:

    One member of my family visited India in 1969 as a student. Since then, no-one. I wonder if that's typical.

    Yep never been and never wanted to
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,454
    edited November 2023
    BBC at it again...

    Nurhan was 15 years old when she was accused of trying to carry out an attack with scissors, Hassan says. Nurhan was sentenced to 13 and-a-half years in jail,

    https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-middle-east-67562488

    Makes it sounds quite very innocnent.

    The prosecution secured Nurhan Awad’s agreement to a plea bargain, in which she has confessed to attempted murder. They went around trying to stab a load of people including the elderly and a soldier.
This discussion has been closed.