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WH2024: the early primary States – politicalbetting.com
WH2024: the early primary States – politicalbetting.com
We are not long now from the first part of the campaign to elect the next president of the United States. At this stage this is all about the primaries. Who shall be the flag carriers for the Democrats and the Republicans?
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I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):
Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.
But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)
When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
Dean Philips (no, me neither), Marianne Williamson, and a bunch of kooky no-hopers?
Unless a Gavin Newsom or a Joe Manchin formally step up, could Biden end up winning with write-ins on a low turnout?
The SPD are centre-left, the Greens more to the left but not "far left". The FDP Liberals are well to the right. They aren't nationalist like the AfD or CSU but financially and economically they are more to the right than the CDU.
Morgan Kelly predicted the crash would kill them both. He was wrong about the timeframe, but the crash plus Covid plus Ukraine seems set to do for them and lead to their replacement by Sinn Fein.
What emerges as a replacement on the right - if it does - is anybody's guess as far as I can see.
It could smash open Irish politics. In 15 years they’ve gone from a 5% foreign born population to a 20% foreign born population
Unsurprisingly, the people are not happy; the Dail’s response is not to adjust to voter concerns but to introduce the world’s harshest hate speech laws (like something from China) in an attempt to stop people talking about it
It is only coz some Indy journalists did some digging that Irish people now know that the “naturalised Irish citizen” who chopped up those Dublin kids is actually an Algerian, who resisted deportation for 5 years, and has - it seems - never had a job and was arrested for knife possession earlier this year
Ahead of primary, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters switch affiliation to Republican or undeclared
https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
..The secretary of state’s registration numbers reveal that registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats 269,766 to 265,159 in New Hampshire, but undeclared voters tally 344,212. That balance may shift next year if Democratic-leaning voters switch their affiliations back to the Democratic Party ahead of the state primary and general election in fall 2024...
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary
21 candidates on the ballot, only five of whom are notable enough to have a Wiki profile!
If I lived in New Hampshire I'd probably run for president at least once.
In New Hampshire someone who normally votes Democrat can register as a Republican in order to vote in the Republican party primary. That person can then de-register as a Republican after the primary election and re-register as a Democrat.
They can then vote in the Democrat primary elections later.
Am I alone in finding this somewhat bizarre?
And good morning, everybody!
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/nov/27/meta-instagram-facebook-kids-addicted-lawsuit
Company documents cited in the complaint described several Meta officials acknowledging the company designed its products to exploit shortcomings in youthful psychology, including a May 2020 internal presentation called “teen fundamentals” which highlighted certain vulnerabilities of the young brain that could be exploited by product development.
The presentation discussed teen brains’ relative immaturity, and teenagers’ tendency to be driven by “emotion, the intrigue of novelty and reward” and asked how these asked how these characteristics could “manifest . . . in product usage”.
https://www.mychamplainvalley.com/news/new-hampshire-primary/filing-for-new-hampshire-primary-opens-with-stack-of-2-bills/
Though it provides employment for an inordinate number of lawyers, so gets TSE's vote.
As for Iowa, the caucuses have been shown to be such a defective model that it is astonishing that they persist. These 2 not particularly representative states like to believe that they have a public duty of winnowing the wheat from the chaff but neither, for different reasons, are really up to the task.
@rcs1000’s contention, is that without Biden on the primary in New Hampshire (as a protest at the order of the primary season), many Dems will turn out as Republicans, to try and give momentum to the more mainstream candidates such as Haley or Christie.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king
THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!
Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab
This is like distillers working out how they can make rye whiskey more appealing to 14 year olds
Another related observation:
A few years ago I had cause to make a few visits to Google’s Dublin HQ. My impression was that it’s essentially a spacecraft of globalism that had landed on the old docks. The staff was maybe 5% Irish - the rest an extraordinary melange of bright, mostly young folk from across Europe and the world (also a fantastic staff canteen).
Ireland, with its tax regime, has made a big play to attract global businesses like Google, Meta and Amazon. I do not sense that the advantages of this have trickled down to the general populace - rather it turns Dublin from what felt like a fairly parochial regional city - magnificent in its own way, on par with say Glasgow or Liverpool - to a very international and outward-looking place; a soggy Dubai on the Liffey. Flat whites and New England IPAs instead of tea and stout.
And the infrastructure has not kept pace with the growth. Try getting from the airport to the centre, or vice versa, and you’ll see what I mean.
Whether you agree with this or not, have the courage of your convictions. Sunak does a diplomatic Bad Thing because he isn't man enough to meet the Greek PM and say that they are ours by Rules of Acquisition.
What will he be like during the election campaign and will he run away from that as well?
It's that Dems like a little bit of civil war in the Republican Party. A win for Haley or Christie makes that kind of war more likely.
And the f*cking Elgin f*cking Marbles, seriously. He’ll be banging on about the apes on Gibraltar or something next.
To the bin, to the sea, ASAP please. He’s an international embarrassment as well as a domestic one.
Vermin Supreme: "an American performance artist and activist who has run as a candidate in various local, state, and national elections in the United States. He served as a member of the Libertarian Party's judicial committee.[3][4][5][6] Supreme is known for wearing a boot as a hat and carrying a large toothbrush,[7] and has said that if elected President of the United States, he will pass a law requiring people to brush their teeth.[4][8][9][10] He has campaigned on a platform of zombie apocalypse awareness and time travel research,[11] and promised a free pony for every American.[12]"
Paperboy Prince: "Prince is non-binary and prefers the pronouns they/them or the neopronouns God/Goddess.[3][7][5] They dress as "royalty" to draw attention to how politicians can hold power for longer than kings or queens.[8] In an interview with fashion magazine V, Prince explained how freedom in fashion encourages freedom in thinking and welcoming of diversity.[32] They often wear a Game Boy Advance SP or Game Boy Color around their neck.[6]"
Marianne Williamson: crazy self help author who wrote "Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness, that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous? Actually, who are you not to be? You are a child of God. Your playing small doesn't serve the world. There's nothing enlightened about shrinking so that other people won't feel insecure around you. We are all meant to shine, as children do. We were born to make manifest the glory of God that is within us. It's not just in some of us; it's in everyone. And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. As we're liberated from our own fear, our presence automatically liberates others."
Dean Philips: Who?
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/28/average-rent-great-britain-properties-interest-rates-savills
https://www.ft.com/content/4a276e17-b526-4f13-9654-9497489cb93e
"Network North is not fully costed and beset by uncertainty, warn experts"
"Sir John Armitt, chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, a government advisory board, said Network North was an instance of the UK “acting in haste with a clear risk of repenting at leisure”.
Some of the project’s schemes had “not been designed in any sense of detail whatsoever”, he said, adding that some costings seemed to have been “plucked out of the air”.
What a shocker. Some of the schemes they announced they are funding - like the Manchester North West Quadrant - aren't a scheme at all, just a study. Others - the new high speed station in Bradford - required use of a Tardis to deliver the described journey times.
Tories - you can't lie to people is such a moronic way. As I have said repeatedly red wall voters are not stupid. You've screwed them over. You're lying to them again - and have been caught doing so. And you're going to get a political hammering.
It's not just the "Berlin bubble": 66% of Germans want military support for #Ukraine to continue. Most of them want to enable Ukraine to recapture occupied territories by force, not just stop further Russian advances.
https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1729177070876700844
Boris hid in a fridge to avoid Piers Moron. Rishi may just fly about the entire campaign in Rich Force One. Landing at places, but not actually getting out. Just have a nice photo of you fake working with the cap on teh pen you're pretending to write with.
Many people have commented on how Canary Wharf is socially and culturally a million miles from its surroundings.
Unfortunately the genie is well and truly out of the bottle and we have allowed these companies to become incredibly influential.
Is that right? If s, it might make some Dem voters resist from making a tactical registration as a "Republican Voter".
The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.
But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.
Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.
What is the Greek PM supposed to say when asked by a journalist? Rishi's response is pathetic.
How on earth can you say the EM belong to the UK? It is surely at least debatable. After all they were taken from Greece.
Just amazing Teenage Boy energy. Rishi has SAID that he is going to tidy his room so you do not need to KEEP GOING ON ABOUT IT.
@hzeffman
Labour: "To pick a fight with a NATO ally for the sake of a headline shows just how weak Rishi Sunak is. He should have been talking about the economy, immigration, the Middle East, that’s what the country would expect from a leader but Rishi Sunak is no leader."…
Plus in the past the TPE Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield service used to arrive/depart from platform 6 now it arrives/departs at platform 13/14 which are death traps.
TBH, if I could live anywhere in London, it would be on the Isle of Dogs. I loved its weird mix of money and poverty, eastender and immigrant, history and modernity.
There was a really old eastender, an old docker, who I used to chat to in the Gun. He'll be long gone now, and so will his stories, sadly.
I see Harry and Meghan remain about as popular as the Conservative Party.
This means that Derby works, which has been building trains for 175 years, may well close. And we'll be reliant on the cr~p stuff bui;lt by foreign companies. Instead of the cr@p stuff built in Derby....
Seriously though, I'm furious abotu this. Hitachi were bad enough; allowing Siemens in as well was hideous.
Greek papers stressing Sunak is in a position of political weakness
@Kathimerini_gr
"It's no coincidence the meeting was cancelled while Mitsotakis was meeting Starmer, who is 20 points ahead"
@ta_nea
"Sunak, who was recently forced into a reshuffle, is in a political corner"
Conservative short-termism?
Or is it actually Treasury obsession with short-term accounts?
We've had 25 years of generally pro-rail governments. We've now got an actively anti-rail government. I don't hold out much hope that Starmer will stand up to the treasury and DfT. New Labour didn't.
"Mr Mitsotakis's appearance on Laura Kuenssberg had irritated Mr Sunak" Seriously? If this is his threshold for cancelling meetings, he is going to have a pretty empty diary. I imagine most of his colleagues irritate him from time to time let alone journalists, the opposition etc
Sorry, PMQs is cancelled, Richi is having another hissy fit...
The vast majority of the closures following the Beeching Report of 1963 took place under the LAB government of 1964 - 1970.
TPE has been a DfT controlled disaster zone for a while, (the original mess was largely DfT meddling, before they tried running it directly) but in fairness when you are canceling trains all over the shop because of a lack of traincrew, ditching a small fleet of non-standard stock with appalling reliability rates does at least make it more likely the advertised trains will actually turn up and run.
*TMS - train management system. Basically everything from brakes to the seat reservations, the door unlocking and maintenance levels of the toilet is software controlled by one central system with a display in the drivers cab. These days when modern trains won't go, it's usually because the poor bloke driving is rebooting the TMS to try and clear some phantom fault condition for long enough to get the doors closed and the unit to take power.
The attitude to rail amongst Labour and the Conservatives is not quite as you would expect. But I have no doubt that this current government is actively hostile towards them.
All of the long distance traffic drops into the tunnel section. This frees up an enormous amount of capacity on the Castlefield viaduct section to run a metro frequency local service...
TIA.
Lets do something radical. The European model works - as demonstrated in Britain by all the StateCo operators running our trains. Spin out TrainCo - run by railway professionals with access to state finance rates. Take the DfT into a field and shoot it.
It's nice to see a United States Election thread.
One issue which I have not seen mentioned here, which IMO may be pivotal, is a woman's right to abortion.
There has been a series of amendments, defeats and ballot initiatives at State level clipping the wings, or overturning, the attempts to make abortion difficult or impossible to provide. And Democrats seem to be winning elections in those circumstances, and in some unexpected places. Was this a factor in the midterms?
There are initiatives currently planned in around 9 states. The concept put forward is usually around "abortion until the time of fetus viability", which is very much along the lines of the principle here, and in many countries in Europe.
AFAICS Trump is not backing a federal abortion ban.
Here's a summary piece on Vox from the summer:
https://www.vox.com/policy/23784409/abortion-ballot-measure-ohio-reproductive-rights-2024
Does anyone with a more granular knowledge of USA politics than me have any comments?
So yes, if you’re a Democrat in NH with a particular dislike of an incumbent Senator, Congressman, or local NH politician up for election, then you might not want to register as a Republican to vote against Trump.
It's since the system became micromanaged by the DfT, that it's all properly gone bad. The best thing would be to nuke the DfT and go back to something like the original franchising model.
It could give Biden the edge, but in fairness Trump is not the most anti-choice candidate out there and is not running on it as an issue. Someone like DeSantis would likely be weaker to those kind of attacks then Trump. I also think the failure of Dems to actually do anything to protect people who want abortions (like opening federal barracks medical facilities in states with bans up for use for this) and their weak sauce response to SCOTUS (who even leaked the goddamn case giving them time to prepare) have stopped this becoming a huge movement.
In April I expect prices to rise a bit due to the minimum wage going up, I think that adds 2-3% onto food prices but it's probably worth it to give the low paid a pretty big pay rise.
This can't happen as long as the question would negatively sway even a million or so royalist voters. So, for example, if Labour put it in their manifesto (which of course they won't) I would not vote for them, and I am very much a centrist moderate about politics, including the monarchy.
There are of course two big questions. Not only 'abolition' but also 'what replaces it'. The second is, in the age of elected heads of state like Trump, difficult. Monarchy replaced by Boris/Farage/Corbyn/ Gazza/Elton John anyone?
The Simple Truth is that the franchising model was set up to promote competition and for most journeys there is a single operator and always will be. The competition is rail vs road vs air, not red train vs blue train.
A few routes can have open access competition and that works well. The rest? Forget it.
I sometimes do the reverse when waiting at Oxford Road to go the other way - go to Pic to get on early.
In the old days one of the big supermarkets would have gone for it - big price cuts on food or fuel with the others having to follow. Asda and Morrisons are out of that game - so heavily loaded with debt that their VC owners won't allow scale price cuts.
That allows Tesco and Sainsbury's to maintain higher fuel prices to cover their food losses and start to pull a few prices back from their peak. Its a few though rather than the whole basket - they need a return to profitability first before that happens.
Citizen-initiated ballot measures are the most viable strategy to protect access to abortion and enshrine this right into state constitutions for long-term security.
There are ten states that allow for citizen-initiated ballot measures and where abortion is under threat—the three states where such a ballot measure would have the greatest likelihood of passage are Arizona, Florida, and Ohio.
Of the 34 states that prevent citizens from initiating constitutional amendments via ballot initiative, 15 of those already have six-week or complete abortion bans currently on the books—the election of pro-choice state legislators, governors, and, in some states, judges are vital in these states.
Gubernatorial races focused around protecting reproductive rights and serving as a bulwark against the GOP’s extreme abortion agenda will be salient and likely have down-ballot benefits for Democrats who are following the Democratic gubernatorial nominee’s lead.
Twenty-two states select their jurists through either partisan or nonpartisan elections—Wisconsin has the first state supreme court election in April 2023 *, which will be crucial for the future of abortion access in the state.
https://www.thirdway.org/memo/abortion-on-the-ballot-protecting-access-in-2023-and-2024
* A liberal judge was elected to the Wisconsin supreme court and the anti-abortion measures have been reversed - not sure on details or how far it is irrevocable yet.
monarchies in the world today are monarchies while plenty of Republics are dictatorships.
UK voters also don't want a divisive party politician as head of state however much Republic and the Guardian try and push the issue.
Let us not forget either when Labour has had pro Republic leaders like Foot or Corbyn it has been heavily defeated
If abortion is the main issue, in November 2004, the Democrats will win. If the economy is the main issue, the Republicans will win.
Regardless of the Presidential election, it's very hard to see the Democrats holding the Senate, simply because of the nature of the seats that are being contested. West Virginia is lost, and Ohio, Montana, and Arizona, extremely vulnerable. The Republicans only need one of those three to take control.
I've been shopping for some things at Morrisons since University in the 1980s whenever I am based in a Morrisons area; they are my largest local supermarket.
They have already lost my frequency of visit, and for me it is already a less desirable option.
Yes we need more affordable housing but then as local elections show there is lots of local Nimby opposition to any building on the greenbelt
certainly. We also still need landlords as not everyone can afford to buy and some like the flexibility of renting eg students, the young and unmarried and those on contract work
Practical: I shall keep Charles III. You may keep Putin and Trump.
Greece wants the marbles reunited with the Parthenon, so we’re going back for the rest of it.
https://twitter.com/BenedictSpence/status/1729430374122475826
Constitutional monarchies are all democratic, the King doesn't veto laws passed by Parliament but plenty of Republics like Syria or China or increasingly Russia and Iran are effectively dictatorships