Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Options

WH2024: the early primary States – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited December 2023 in General
imageWH2024: the early primary States – politicalbetting.com

We are not long now from the first part of the campaign to elect the next president of the United States. At this stage this is all about the primaries. Who shall be the flag carriers for the Democrats and the Republicans?

Read the full story here

«1345

Comments

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,909
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.

    He's not on the ballot but he may still win there.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    So who will actually be on the Dem primary ballot in New Hampshire?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    Dean Philips (no, me neither), Marianne Williamson, and a bunch of kooky no-hopers?

    Unless a Gavin Newsom or a Joe Manchin formally step up, could Biden end up winning with write-ins on a low turnout?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.

    He's not on the ballot but he may still win there.
    He might well. But, candidly, I expect most Dems to vote in the Republican Primary, and I expect them to vote anti-Trump.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    edited November 2023
    Nvm
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887
    FPT
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of the UK being the only major European country to have a centre-left government in a couple of years' time?

    Poland says "hi!"

    I think the current situation is not dissimilar to 2008-2010: incumbents got kicked out everywhere. Then because of the Global Financial Crisis, and now because of rising interest rates.

    Hence, the Netherlands kicked out their center left government... but conversely, the (relatively right wing) Conservatives are being punished in the UK, and the United Right being evicted from government in Poland last month.

    Now there are - today - a lot more left wing governments in power in Europe (Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden to name a few). So I'd expect a swing right, but a lot of this is simply going to be kick the incumbent.
    Germany has has a mixed government.
    The SPD are centre-left, the Greens more to the left but not "far left". The FDP Liberals are well to the right. They aren't nationalist like the AfD or CSU but financially and economically they are more to the right than the CDU.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,181
    eristdoof said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of the UK being the only major European country to have a centre-left government in a couple of years' time?

    Poland says "hi!"

    I think the current situation is not dissimilar to 2008-2010: incumbents got kicked out everywhere. Then because of the Global Financial Crisis, and now because of rising interest rates.

    Hence, the Netherlands kicked out their center left government... but conversely, the (relatively right wing) Conservatives are being punished in the UK, and the United Right being evicted from government in Poland last month.

    Now there are - today - a lot more left wing governments in power in Europe (Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden to name a few). So I'd expect a swing right, but a lot of this is simply going to be kick the incumbent.
    Germany has has a mixed government.
    The SPD are centre-left, the Greens more to the left but not "far left". The FDP Liberals are well to the right. They aren't nationalist like the AfD or CSU but financially and economically they are more to the right than the CDU.
    Ireland has a grand coalition of two right wing parties.

    Morgan Kelly predicted the crash would kill them both. He was wrong about the timeframe, but the crash plus Covid plus Ukraine seems set to do for them and lead to their replacement by Sinn Fein.

    What emerges as a replacement on the right - if it does - is anybody's guess as far as I can see.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    edited November 2023
    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of the UK being the only major European country to have a centre-left government in a couple of years' time?

    Poland says "hi!"

    I think the current situation is not dissimilar to 2008-2010: incumbents got kicked out everywhere. Then because of the Global Financial Crisis, and now because of rising interest rates.

    Hence, the Netherlands kicked out their center left government... but conversely, the (relatively right wing) Conservatives are being punished in the UK, and the United Right being evicted from government in Poland last month.

    Now there are - today - a lot more left wing governments in power in Europe (Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden to name a few). So I'd expect a swing right, but a lot of this is simply going to be kick the incumbent.
    Germany has has a mixed government.
    The SPD are centre-left, the Greens more to the left but not "far left". The FDP Liberals are well to the right. They aren't nationalist like the AfD or CSU but financially and economically they are more to the right than the CDU.
    Ireland has a grand coalition of two right wing parties.

    Morgan Kelly predicted the crash would kill them both. He was wrong about the timeframe, but the crash plus Covid plus Ukraine seems set to do for them and lead to their replacement by Sinn Fein.

    What emerges as a replacement on the right - if it does - is anybody's guess as far as I can see.
    Immigration is by far a bigger issue now

    It could smash open Irish politics. In 15 years they’ve gone from a 5% foreign born population to a 20% foreign born population

    Unsurprisingly, the people are not happy; the Dail’s response is not to adjust to voter concerns but to introduce the world’s harshest hate speech laws (like something from China) in an attempt to stop people talking about it

    It is only coz some Indy journalists did some digging that Irish people now know that the “naturalised Irish citizen” who chopped up those Dublin kids is actually an Algerian, who resisted deportation for 5 years, and has - it seems - never had a job and was arrested for knife possession earlier this year
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    edited November 2023
    Sandpit said:

    So who will actually be on the Dem primary ballot in New Hampshire?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    Dean Philips (no, me neither), Marianne Williamson, and a bunch of kooky no-hopers?

    Unless a Gavin Newsom or a Joe Manchin formally step up, could Biden end up winning with write-ins on a low turnout?

    The last two are unlikely, with an Oct 27th filing deadline.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.

    My guess is not many, as the registration deadline has closed. What will count is the registered independents.

    Ahead of primary, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters switch affiliation to Republican or undeclared
    https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
    ..The secretary of state’s registration numbers reveal that registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats 269,766 to 265,159 in New Hampshire, but undeclared voters tally 344,212. That balance may shift next year if Democratic-leaning voters switch their affiliations back to the Democratic Party ahead of the state primary and general election in fall 2024...

  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    So who will actually be on the Dem primary ballot in New Hampshire?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    Dean Philips (no, me neither), Marianne Williamson, and a bunch of kooky no-hopers?

    Unless a Gavin Newsom or a Joe Manchin formally step up, could Biden end up winning with write-ins on a low turnout?

    The last two are unlikely, with an Oct 27th filing deadline.
    Ah yes, so the deadline has already passed.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary

    21 candidates on the ballot, only five of whom are notable enough to have a Wiki profile!


  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    So who will actually be on the Dem primary ballot in New Hampshire?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    Dean Philips (no, me neither), Marianne Williamson, and a bunch of kooky no-hopers?

    Unless a Gavin Newsom or a Joe Manchin formally step up, could Biden end up winning with write-ins on a low turnout?

    The last two are unlikely, with an Oct 27th filing deadline.
    Ah yes, so the deadline has already passed.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary

    21 candidates on the ballot, only five of whom are notable enough to have a Wiki profile!


    It's cheap to file.
    If I lived in New Hampshire I'd probably run for president at least once.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.

    My guess is not many, as the registration deadline has closed. What will count is the registered independents.

    Ahead of primary, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters switch affiliation to Republican or undeclared
    https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
    ..The secretary of state’s registration numbers reveal that registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats 269,766 to 265,159 in New Hampshire, but undeclared voters tally 344,212. That balance may shift next year if Democratic-leaning voters switch their affiliations back to the Democratic Party ahead of the state primary and general election in fall 2024...

    Let me get this straight.
    In New Hampshire someone who normally votes Democrat can register as a Republican in order to vote in the Republican party primary. That person can then de-register as a Republican after the primary election and re-register as a Democrat.
    They can then vote in the Democrat primary elections later.

    Am I alone in finding this somewhat bizarre?

    And good morning, everybody!
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    Really interesting lawsuit involving Facebook going on in the US. A whole load of internal emails coming out in discovery, discussing what to do (or, more pertinently, what not to do), with millions of children using their platform.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/nov/27/meta-instagram-facebook-kids-addicted-lawsuit

    Company documents cited in the complaint described several Meta officials acknowledging the company designed its products to exploit shortcomings in youthful psychology, including a May 2020 internal presentation called “teen fundamentals” which highlighted certain vulnerabilities of the young brain that could be exploited by product development.

    The presentation discussed teen brains’ relative immaturity, and teenagers’ tendency to be driven by “emotion, the intrigue of novelty and reward” and asked how these asked how these characteristics could “manifest . . . in product usage”.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    edited November 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    So who will actually be on the Dem primary ballot in New Hampshire?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    Dean Philips (no, me neither), Marianne Williamson, and a bunch of kooky no-hopers?

    Unless a Gavin Newsom or a Joe Manchin formally step up, could Biden end up winning with write-ins on a low turnout?

    The last two are unlikely, with an Oct 27th filing deadline.
    Ah yes, so the deadline has already passed.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary

    21 candidates on the ballot, only five of whom are notable enough to have a Wiki profile!


    It's cheap to file.
    If I lived in New Hampshire I'd probably run for president at least once.
    Yes it would be rather amusing, if only to be able to describe yourself as a former Presidential candidate. The filing fee is only $1,000.
    https://www.mychamplainvalley.com/news/new-hampshire-primary/filing-for-new-hampshire-primary-opens-with-stack-of-2-bills/
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    .

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.

    My guess is not many, as the registration deadline has closed. What will count is the registered independents.

    Ahead of primary, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters switch affiliation to Republican or undeclared
    https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
    ..The secretary of state’s registration numbers reveal that registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats 269,766 to 265,159 in New Hampshire, but undeclared voters tally 344,212. That balance may shift next year if Democratic-leaning voters switch their affiliations back to the Democratic Party ahead of the state primary and general election in fall 2024...

    Let me get this straight.
    In New Hampshire someone who normally votes Democrat can register as a Republican in order to vote in the Republican party primary. That person can then de-register as a Republican after the primary election and re-register as a Democrat.
    They can then vote in the Democrat primary elections later.

    Am I alone in finding this somewhat bizarre?

    And good morning, everybody!
    US politics is baffling.
    Though it provides employment for an inordinate number of lawyers, so gets TSE's vote.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,193
    Presumably Biden not playing is a consequence of the Democrats wanting to move NH back and the state refusing. I don't see anyone from the Democratic side spending much money in NH this year which will hurt.

    As for Iowa, the caucuses have been shown to be such a defective model that it is astonishing that they persist. These 2 not particularly representative states like to believe that they have a public duty of winnowing the wheat from the chaff but neither, for different reasons, are really up to the task.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.

    My guess is not many, as the registration deadline has closed. What will count is the registered independents.

    Ahead of primary, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters switch affiliation to Republican or undeclared
    https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
    ..The secretary of state’s registration numbers reveal that registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats 269,766 to 265,159 in New Hampshire, but undeclared voters tally 344,212. That balance may shift next year if Democratic-leaning voters switch their affiliations back to the Democratic Party ahead of the state primary and general election in fall 2024...

    Let me get this straight.
    In New Hampshire someone who normally votes Democrat can register as a Republican in order to vote in the Republican party primary. That person can then de-register as a Republican after the primary election and re-register as a Democrat.
    They can then vote in the Democrat primary elections later.

    Am I alone in finding this somewhat bizarre?

    And good morning, everybody!
    You have to decide which primary to vote in for 2024. You can change you mind about this at each election though, so you can be Democrat in 2022, Republican in 2024, and Democrat again in 2026.

    @rcs1000’s contention, is that without Biden on the primary in New Hampshire (as a protest at the order of the primary season), many Dems will turn out as Republicans, to try and give momentum to the more mainstream candidates such as Haley or Christie.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    edited November 2023
    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

  • Options
    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting lawsuit involving Facebook going on in the US. A whole load of internal emails coming out in discovery, discussing what to do (or, more pertinently, what not to do), with millions of children using their platform.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/nov/27/meta-instagram-facebook-kids-addicted-lawsuit

    Company documents cited in the complaint described several Meta officials acknowledging the company designed its products to exploit shortcomings in youthful psychology, including a May 2020 internal presentation called “teen fundamentals” which highlighted certain vulnerabilities of the young brain that could be exploited by product development.

    The presentation discussed teen brains’ relative immaturity, and teenagers’ tendency to be driven by “emotion, the intrigue of novelty and reward” and asked how these asked how these characteristics could “manifest . . . in product usage”.

    That does not in itself seem very sinister. I expect toy makers and children's authors ask themselves similar questions.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994

    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting lawsuit involving Facebook going on in the US. A whole load of internal emails coming out in discovery, discussing what to do (or, more pertinently, what not to do), with millions of children using their platform.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/nov/27/meta-instagram-facebook-kids-addicted-lawsuit

    Company documents cited in the complaint described several Meta officials acknowledging the company designed its products to exploit shortcomings in youthful psychology, including a May 2020 internal presentation called “teen fundamentals” which highlighted certain vulnerabilities of the young brain that could be exploited by product development.

    The presentation discussed teen brains’ relative immaturity, and teenagers’ tendency to be driven by “emotion, the intrigue of novelty and reward” and asked how these asked how these characteristics could “manifest . . . in product usage”.

    That does not in itself seem very sinister. I expect toy makers and children's authors ask themselves similar questions.
    No, social media is dangerous in itself. Like alcohol

    This is like distillers working out how they can make rye whiskey more appealing to 14 year olds
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001
    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of the UK being the only major European country to have a centre-left government in a couple of years' time?

    Poland says "hi!"

    I think the current situation is not dissimilar to 2008-2010: incumbents got kicked out everywhere. Then because of the Global Financial Crisis, and now because of rising interest rates.

    Hence, the Netherlands kicked out their center left government... but conversely, the (relatively right wing) Conservatives are being punished in the UK, and the United Right being evicted from government in Poland last month.

    Now there are - today - a lot more left wing governments in power in Europe (Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden to name a few). So I'd expect a swing right, but a lot of this is simply going to be kick the incumbent.
    Germany has has a mixed government.
    The SPD are centre-left, the Greens more to the left but not "far left". The FDP Liberals are well to the right. They aren't nationalist like the AfD or CSU but financially and economically they are more to the right than the CDU.
    Ireland has a grand coalition of two right wing parties.

    Morgan Kelly predicted the crash would kill them both. He was wrong about the timeframe, but the crash plus Covid plus Ukraine seems set to do for them and lead to their replacement by Sinn Fein.

    What emerges as a replacement on the right - if it does - is anybody's guess as far as I can see.
    Immigration is by far a bigger issue now

    It could smash open Irish politics. In 15 years they’ve gone from a 5% foreign born population to a 20% foreign born population

    Unsurprisingly, the people are not happy; the Dail’s response is not to adjust to voter concerns but to introduce the world’s harshest hate speech laws (like something from China) in an attempt to stop people talking about it

    It is only coz some Indy journalists did some digging that Irish people now know that the “naturalised Irish citizen” who chopped up those Dublin kids is actually an Algerian, who resisted deportation for 5 years, and has - it seems - never had a job and was arrested for knife possession earlier this year
    Ireland is in an odd place with this. As a country that has exported millions around the globe often due to oppression or famine (including my own ancestors), the emigrant experience and the spectrum of feelings, from grievance to pride, that it encompasses is woven into the myth of the national character of the Irish. So I feel the discourse at least will be different from nations that have historically been more destination than departure point.

    Another related observation:

    A few years ago I had cause to make a few visits to Google’s Dublin HQ. My impression was that it’s essentially a spacecraft of globalism that had landed on the old docks. The staff was maybe 5% Irish - the rest an extraordinary melange of bright, mostly young folk from across Europe and the world (also a fantastic staff canteen).

    Ireland, with its tax regime, has made a big play to attract global businesses like Google, Meta and Amazon. I do not sense that the advantages of this have trickled down to the general populace - rather it turns Dublin from what felt like a fairly parochial regional city - magnificent in its own way, on par with say Glasgow or Liverpool - to a very international and outward-looking place; a soggy Dubai on the Liffey. Flat whites and New England IPAs instead of tea and stout.

    And the infrastructure has not kept pace with the growth. Try getting from the airport to the centre, or vice versa, and you’ll see what I mean.
  • Options
    Off topic, but I read this morning that Sunak blew off a meeting with the Greek PM who was in London because he expressed his view that the Elgin Marbles deserve to be in Greece.

    Whether you agree with this or not, have the courage of your convictions. Sunak does a diplomatic Bad Thing because he isn't man enough to meet the Greek PM and say that they are ours by Rules of Acquisition.

    What will he be like during the election campaign and will he run away from that as well?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.

    My guess is not many, as the registration deadline has closed. What will count is the registered independents.

    Ahead of primary, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters switch affiliation to Republican or undeclared
    https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
    ..The secretary of state’s registration numbers reveal that registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats 269,766 to 265,159 in New Hampshire, but undeclared voters tally 344,212. That balance may shift next year if Democratic-leaning voters switch their affiliations back to the Democratic Party ahead of the state primary and general election in fall 2024...

    Let me get this straight.
    In New Hampshire someone who normally votes Democrat can register as a Republican in order to vote in the Republican party primary. That person can then de-register as a Republican after the primary election and re-register as a Democrat.
    They can then vote in the Democrat primary elections later.

    Am I alone in finding this somewhat bizarre?

    And good morning, everybody!
    You have to decide which primary to vote in for 2024. You can change you mind about this at each election though, so you can be Democrat in 2022, Republican in 2024, and Democrat again in 2026.

    @rcs1000’s contention, is that without Biden on the primary in New Hampshire (as a protest at the order of the primary season), many Dems will turn out as Republicans, to try and give momentum to the more mainstream candidates such as Haley or Christie.
    Actually, it's very slightly different.

    It's that Dems like a little bit of civil war in the Republican Party. A win for Haley or Christie makes that kind of war more likely.
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960

    Off topic, but I read this morning that Sunak blew off a meeting with the Greek PM who was in London because he expressed his view that the Elgin Marbles deserve to be in Greece.

    Whether you agree with this or not, have the courage of your convictions. Sunak does a diplomatic Bad Thing because he isn't man enough to meet the Greek PM and say that they are ours by Rules of Acquisition.

    What will he be like during the election campaign and will he run away from that as well?

    Until Jan 2025, yes.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001

    Off topic, but I read this morning that Sunak blew off a meeting with the Greek PM who was in London because he expressed his view that the Elgin Marbles deserve to be in Greece.

    Whether you agree with this or not, have the courage of your convictions. Sunak does a diplomatic Bad Thing because he isn't man enough to meet the Greek PM and say that they are ours by Rules of Acquisition.

    What will he be like during the election campaign and will he run away from that as well?

    Rishi being shit at politics is no longer a surprise.

    And the f*cking Elgin f*cking Marbles, seriously. He’ll be banging on about the apes on Gibraltar or something next.

    To the bin, to the sea, ASAP please. He’s an international embarrassment as well as a domestic one.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,938
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    So who will actually be on the Dem primary ballot in New Hampshire?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    Dean Philips (no, me neither), Marianne Williamson, and a bunch of kooky no-hopers?

    Unless a Gavin Newsom or a Joe Manchin formally step up, could Biden end up winning with write-ins on a low turnout?

    The last two are unlikely, with an Oct 27th filing deadline.
    Ah yes, so the deadline has already passed.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary

    21 candidates on the ballot, only five of whom are notable enough to have a Wiki profile!


    The four who rate a Wikipedia page are (and I'm not joking):

    Vermin Supreme: "an American performance artist and activist who has run as a candidate in various local, state, and national elections in the United States. He served as a member of the Libertarian Party's judicial committee.[3][4][5][6] Supreme is known for wearing a boot as a hat and carrying a large toothbrush,[7] and has said that if elected President of the United States, he will pass a law requiring people to brush their teeth.[4][8][9][10] He has campaigned on a platform of zombie apocalypse awareness and time travel research,[11] and promised a free pony for every American.[12]"

    Paperboy Prince: "Prince is non-binary and prefers the pronouns they/them or the neopronouns God/Goddess.[3][7][5] They dress as "royalty" to draw attention to how politicians can hold power for longer than kings or queens.[8] In an interview with fashion magazine V, Prince explained how freedom in fashion encourages freedom in thinking and welcoming of diversity.[32] They often wear a Game Boy Advance SP or Game Boy Color around their neck.[6]"

    Marianne Williamson: crazy self help author who wrote "Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness, that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous? Actually, who are you not to be? You are a child of God. Your playing small doesn't serve the world. There's nothing enlightened about shrinking so that other people won't feel insecure around you. We are all meant to shine, as children do. We were born to make manifest the glory of God that is within us. It's not just in some of us; it's in everyone. And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. As we're liberated from our own fear, our presence automatically liberates others."

    Dean Philips: Who?
  • Options
    Average rent in Great Britain up by more than a quarter since start of Covid
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/28/average-rent-great-britain-properties-interest-rates-savills
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,339

    Off topic, but I read this morning that Sunak blew off a meeting with the Greek PM who was in London because he expressed his view that the Elgin Marbles deserve to be in Greece.

    Whether you agree with this or not, have the courage of your convictions. Sunak does a diplomatic Bad Thing because he isn't man enough to meet the Greek PM and say that they are ours by Rules of Acquisition.

    What will he be like during the election campaign and will he run away from that as well?

    The Greek PM knows the EM's belong to the UK. Its all bluff and bluster... Best ignored imho
  • Options
    Talking about Rishi - as we said at the time it was announced:

    https://www.ft.com/content/4a276e17-b526-4f13-9654-9497489cb93e

    "Network North is not fully costed and beset by uncertainty, warn experts"

    "Sir John Armitt, chair of the National Infrastructure Commission, a government advisory board, said Network North was an instance of the UK “acting in haste with a clear risk of repenting at leisure”.

    Some of the project’s schemes had “not been designed in any sense of detail whatsoever”, he said, adding that some costings seemed to have been “plucked out of the air”.

    What a shocker. Some of the schemes they announced they are funding - like the Manchester North West Quadrant - aren't a scheme at all, just a study. Others - the new high speed station in Bradford - required use of a Tardis to deliver the described journey times.

    Tories - you can't lie to people is such a moronic way. As I have said repeatedly red wall voters are not stupid. You've screwed them over. You're lying to them again - and have been caught doing so. And you're going to get a political hammering.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,474
    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    While we're doing polls.

    It's not just the "Berlin bubble": 66% of Germans want military support for #Ukraine to continue. Most of them want to enable Ukraine to recapture occupied territories by force, not just stop further Russian advances.
    https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1729177070876700844
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679

    Average rent in Great Britain up by more than a quarter since start of Covid
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/28/average-rent-great-britain-properties-interest-rates-savills

    Was talking to a friend of mine about this last night (he's a teacher at a private school). He was talking about how he and some younger colleagues are having to opt out of long term pension payments to make rent. By allowing landlordism and rent seeking to go out of control, alongside the refusal to build any affordable public housing, a huge number of people in their 30s are just completely buggered. We need a government who wants to break the backs of landlords as much as Thatcher wanted to break the power of unions.
  • Options

    Off topic, but I read this morning that Sunak blew off a meeting with the Greek PM who was in London because he expressed his view that the Elgin Marbles deserve to be in Greece.

    Whether you agree with this or not, have the courage of your convictions. Sunak does a diplomatic Bad Thing because he isn't man enough to meet the Greek PM and say that they are ours by Rules of Acquisition.

    What will he be like during the election campaign and will he run away from that as well?

    The Greek PM knows the EM's belong to the UK. Its all bluff and bluster... Best ignored imho
    If that is the official line then own it. Tell him. Don't cancel the meeting and offer some junior wazzock as an insult alternative.

    Boris hid in a fridge to avoid Piers Moron. Rishi may just fly about the entire campaign in Rich Force One. Landing at places, but not actually getting out. Just have a nice photo of you fake working with the cap on teh pen you're pretending to write with.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,319
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of the UK being the only major European country to have a centre-left government in a couple of years' time?

    Poland says "hi!"

    I think the current situation is not dissimilar to 2008-2010: incumbents got kicked out everywhere. Then because of the Global Financial Crisis, and now because of rising interest rates.

    Hence, the Netherlands kicked out their center left government... but conversely, the (relatively right wing) Conservatives are being punished in the UK, and the United Right being evicted from government in Poland last month.

    Now there are - today - a lot more left wing governments in power in Europe (Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden to name a few). So I'd expect a swing right, but a lot of this is simply going to be kick the incumbent.
    Germany has has a mixed government.
    The SPD are centre-left, the Greens more to the left but not "far left". The FDP Liberals are well to the right. They aren't nationalist like the AfD or CSU but financially and economically they are more to the right than the CDU.
    Ireland has a grand coalition of two right wing parties.

    Morgan Kelly predicted the crash would kill them both. He was wrong about the timeframe, but the crash plus Covid plus Ukraine seems set to do for them and lead to their replacement by Sinn Fein.

    What emerges as a replacement on the right - if it does - is anybody's guess as far as I can see.
    Immigration is by far a bigger issue now

    It could smash open Irish politics. In 15 years they’ve gone from a 5% foreign born population to a 20% foreign born population

    Unsurprisingly, the people are not happy; the Dail’s response is not to adjust to voter concerns but to introduce the world’s harshest hate speech laws (like something from China) in an attempt to stop people talking about it

    It is only coz some Indy journalists did some digging that Irish people now know that the “naturalised Irish citizen” who chopped up those Dublin kids is actually an Algerian, who resisted deportation for 5 years, and has - it seems - never had a job and was arrested for knife possession earlier this year
    Ireland is in an odd place with this. As a country that has exported millions around the globe often due to oppression or famine (including my own ancestors), the emigrant experience and the spectrum of feelings, from grievance to pride, that it encompasses is woven into the myth of the national character of the Irish. So I feel the discourse at least will be different from nations that have historically been more destination than departure point.

    Another related observation:

    A few years ago I had cause to make a few visits to Google’s Dublin HQ. My impression was that it’s essentially a spacecraft of globalism that had landed on the old docks. The staff was maybe 5% Irish - the rest an extraordinary melange of bright, mostly young folk from across Europe and the world (also a fantastic staff canteen).

    Ireland, with its tax regime, has made a big play to attract global businesses like Google, Meta and Amazon. I do not sense that the advantages of this have trickled down to the general populace - rather it turns Dublin from what felt like a fairly parochial regional city - magnificent in its own way, on par with say Glasgow or Liverpool - to a very international and outward-looking place; a soggy Dubai on the Liffey. Flat whites and New England IPAs instead of tea and stout.

    And the infrastructure has not kept pace with the growth. Try getting from the airport to the centre, or vice versa, and you’ll see what I mean.
    Finance and IT like this everywhere - I am one of three British passport holders in a team of 9, currently.

    Many people have commented on how Canary Wharf is socially and culturally a million miles from its surroundings.
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,339
    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    The Gusrdian... talking shite since 1821.
  • Options
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Really interesting lawsuit involving Facebook going on in the US. A whole load of internal emails coming out in discovery, discussing what to do (or, more pertinently, what not to do), with millions of children using their platform.

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/nov/27/meta-instagram-facebook-kids-addicted-lawsuit

    Company documents cited in the complaint described several Meta officials acknowledging the company designed its products to exploit shortcomings in youthful psychology, including a May 2020 internal presentation called “teen fundamentals” which highlighted certain vulnerabilities of the young brain that could be exploited by product development.

    The presentation discussed teen brains’ relative immaturity, and teenagers’ tendency to be driven by “emotion, the intrigue of novelty and reward” and asked how these asked how these characteristics could “manifest . . . in product usage”.

    That does not in itself seem very sinister. I expect toy makers and children's authors ask themselves similar questions.
    No, social media is dangerous in itself. Like alcohol

    This is like distillers working out how they can make rye whiskey more appealing to 14 year olds
    I'm inclined to agree. If I could turn back one innovation of the 21st Century it would be the Social Media Platform. I think they have been bad for discourse, bad for people and bad for the internet. Forums, such as PB or the ones I frequented as a youth, are fine but Facebook, Twitter xcetera I would get rid of. I love me a bit of Reddit and Instagram but they're not worth the harm.

    Unfortunately the genie is well and truly out of the bottle and we have allowed these companies to become incredibly influential.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.

    My guess is not many, as the registration deadline has closed. What will count is the registered independents.

    Ahead of primary, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters switch affiliation to Republican or undeclared
    https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
    ..The secretary of state’s registration numbers reveal that registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats 269,766 to 265,159 in New Hampshire, but undeclared voters tally 344,212. That balance may shift next year if Democratic-leaning voters switch their affiliations back to the Democratic Party ahead of the state primary and general election in fall 2024...

    Let me get this straight.
    In New Hampshire someone who normally votes Democrat can register as a Republican in order to vote in the Republican party primary. That person can then de-register as a Republican after the primary election and re-register as a Democrat.
    They can then vote in the Democrat primary elections later.

    Am I alone in finding this somewhat bizarre?

    And good morning, everybody!
    You have to decide which primary to vote in for 2024. You can change you mind about this at each election though, so you can be Democrat in 2022, Republican in 2024, and Democrat again in 2026.

    @rcs1000’s contention, is that without Biden on the primary in New Hampshire (as a protest at the order of the primary season), many Dems will turn out as Republicans, to try and give momentum to the more mainstream candidates such as Haley or Christie.
    I interpret this as, if a democrat registers as a "Republican Voter" in 2024 they will also have to vote in the Republican House and Senate Primaries.

    Is that right? If s, it might make some Dem voters resist from making a tactical registration as a "Republican Voter".
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203
    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

  • Options
    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.

    My guess is not many, as the registration deadline has closed. What will count is the registered independents.

    Ahead of primary, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters switch affiliation to Republican or undeclared
    https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
    ..The secretary of state’s registration numbers reveal that registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats 269,766 to 265,159 in New Hampshire, but undeclared voters tally 344,212. That balance may shift next year if Democratic-leaning voters switch their affiliations back to the Democratic Party ahead of the state primary and general election in fall 2024...

    Let me get this straight.
    In New Hampshire someone who normally votes Democrat can register as a Republican in order to vote in the Republican party primary. That person can then de-register as a Republican after the primary election and re-register as a Democrat.
    They can then vote in the Democrat primary elections later.

    Am I alone in finding this somewhat bizarre?

    And good morning, everybody!
    You have to decide which primary to vote in for 2024. You can change you mind about this at each election though, so you can be Democrat in 2022, Republican in 2024, and Democrat again in 2026.

    @rcs1000’s contention, is that without Biden on the primary in New Hampshire (as a protest at the order of the primary season), many Dems will turn out as Republicans, to try and give momentum to the more mainstream candidates such as Haley or Christie.
    I interpret this as, if a democrat registers as a "Republican Voter" in 2024 they will also have to vote in the Republican House and Senate Primaries.

    Is that right? If s, it might make some Dem voters resist from making a tactical registration as a "Republican Voter".
    Voting for the moderate in your non preferred party seems the best use of a primary vote generally.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,614

    Off topic, but I read this morning that Sunak blew off a meeting with the Greek PM who was in London because he expressed his view that the Elgin Marbles deserve to be in Greece.

    Whether you agree with this or not, have the courage of your convictions. Sunak does a diplomatic Bad Thing because he isn't man enough to meet the Greek PM and say that they are ours by Rules of Acquisition.

    What will he be like during the election campaign and will he run away from that as well?

    The Greek PM knows the EM's belong to the UK. Its all bluff and bluster... Best ignored imho
    I don't feel strongly on this one way or another but some people do so 'Best ignore' is not sensible.

    What is the Greek PM supposed to say when asked by a journalist? Rishi's response is pathetic.

    How on earth can you say the EM belong to the UK? It is surely at least debatable. After all they were taken from Greece.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @RobDotHutton

    Just amazing Teenage Boy energy. Rishi has SAID that he is going to tidy his room so you do not need to KEEP GOING ON ABOUT IT.


    @hzeffman

    Labour: "To pick a fight with a NATO ally for the sake of a headline shows just how weak Rishi Sunak is. He should have been talking about the economy, immigration, the Middle East, that’s what the country would expect from a leader but Rishi Sunak is no leader."…
  • Options
    Scott_xP said:

    @RobDotHutton

    Just amazing Teenage Boy energy. Rishi has SAID that he is going to tidy his room so you do not need to KEEP GOING ON ABOUT IT.


    @hzeffman

    Labour: "To pick a fight with a NATO ally for the sake of a headline shows just how weak Rishi Sunak is. He should have been talking about the economy, immigration, the Middle East, that’s what the country would expect from a leader but Rishi Sunak is no leader."…

    Time for Dave to take back control.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,887

    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.

    My guess is not many, as the registration deadline has closed. What will count is the registered independents.

    Ahead of primary, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters switch affiliation to Republican or undeclared
    https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
    ..The secretary of state’s registration numbers reveal that registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats 269,766 to 265,159 in New Hampshire, but undeclared voters tally 344,212. That balance may shift next year if Democratic-leaning voters switch their affiliations back to the Democratic Party ahead of the state primary and general election in fall 2024...

    Let me get this straight.
    In New Hampshire someone who normally votes Democrat can register as a Republican in order to vote in the Republican party primary. That person can then de-register as a Republican after the primary election and re-register as a Democrat.
    They can then vote in the Democrat primary elections later.

    Am I alone in finding this somewhat bizarre?

    And good morning, everybody!
    You have to decide which primary to vote in for 2024. You can change you mind about this at each election though, so you can be Democrat in 2022, Republican in 2024, and Democrat again in 2026.

    @rcs1000’s contention, is that without Biden on the primary in New Hampshire (as a protest at the order of the primary season), many Dems will turn out as Republicans, to try and give momentum to the more mainstream candidates such as Haley or Christie.
    I interpret this as, if a democrat registers as a "Republican Voter" in 2024 they will also have to vote in the Republican House and Senate Primaries.

    Is that right? If s, it might make some Dem voters resist from making a tactical registration as a "Republican Voter".
    Voting for the moderate in your non preferred party seems the best use of a primary vote generally.
    Some registered voters will have a strong opinion as to who the candidate on their side should be.
  • Options

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    I am utterly dreading it.

    Plus in the past the TPE Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield service used to arrive/depart from platform 6 now it arrives/departs at platform 13/14 which are death traps.
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,203

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    PS Just £110m of investment in the north going in the bin.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of the UK being the only major European country to have a centre-left government in a couple of years' time?

    Poland says "hi!"

    I think the current situation is not dissimilar to 2008-2010: incumbents got kicked out everywhere. Then because of the Global Financial Crisis, and now because of rising interest rates.

    Hence, the Netherlands kicked out their center left government... but conversely, the (relatively right wing) Conservatives are being punished in the UK, and the United Right being evicted from government in Poland last month.

    Now there are - today - a lot more left wing governments in power in Europe (Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden to name a few). So I'd expect a swing right, but a lot of this is simply going to be kick the incumbent.
    Germany has has a mixed government.
    The SPD are centre-left, the Greens more to the left but not "far left". The FDP Liberals are well to the right. They aren't nationalist like the AfD or CSU but financially and economically they are more to the right than the CDU.
    Ireland has a grand coalition of two right wing parties.

    Morgan Kelly predicted the crash would kill them both. He was wrong about the timeframe, but the crash plus Covid plus Ukraine seems set to do for them and lead to their replacement by Sinn Fein.

    What emerges as a replacement on the right - if it does - is anybody's guess as far as I can see.
    Immigration is by far a bigger issue now

    It could smash open Irish politics. In 15 years they’ve gone from a 5% foreign born population to a 20% foreign born population

    Unsurprisingly, the people are not happy; the Dail’s response is not to adjust to voter concerns but to introduce the world’s harshest hate speech laws (like something from China) in an attempt to stop people talking about it

    It is only coz some Indy journalists did some digging that Irish people now know that the “naturalised Irish citizen” who chopped up those Dublin kids is actually an Algerian, who resisted deportation for 5 years, and has - it seems - never had a job and was arrested for knife possession earlier this year
    Ireland is in an odd place with this. As a country that has exported millions around the globe often due to oppression or famine (including my own ancestors), the emigrant experience and the spectrum of feelings, from grievance to pride, that it encompasses is woven into the myth of the national character of the Irish. So I feel the discourse at least will be different from nations that have historically been more destination than departure point.

    Another related observation:

    A few years ago I had cause to make a few visits to Google’s Dublin HQ. My impression was that it’s essentially a spacecraft of globalism that had landed on the old docks. The staff was maybe 5% Irish - the rest an extraordinary melange of bright, mostly young folk from across Europe and the world (also a fantastic staff canteen).

    Ireland, with its tax regime, has made a big play to attract global businesses like Google, Meta and Amazon. I do not sense that the advantages of this have trickled down to the general populace - rather it turns Dublin from what felt like a fairly parochial regional city - magnificent in its own way, on par with say Glasgow or Liverpool - to a very international and outward-looking place; a soggy Dubai on the Liffey. Flat whites and New England IPAs instead of tea and stout.

    And the infrastructure has not kept pace with the growth. Try getting from the airport to the centre, or vice versa, and you’ll see what I mean.
    Finance and IT like this everywhere - I am one of three British passport holders in a team of 9, currently.

    Many people have commented on how Canary Wharf is socially and culturally a million miles from its surroundings.
    I lived on the Isle of Dogs in 1993/4, and I as glad to see my old local, The Gun, is still open - albeit apparently thoroughly modernised. The IoD was a fairly eclectic place even back then, with the modernity of the 'new' tower and the DLR, with the people I'd meet in Asda being thoroughly 'local', along with the occasional yuppie who got lost from Canary Wharf. ;)

    TBH, if I could live anywhere in London, it would be on the Isle of Dogs. I loved its weird mix of money and poverty, eastender and immigrant, history and modernity.

    There was a really old eastender, an old docker, who I used to chat to in the Gun. He'll be long gone now, and so will his stories, sadly.
  • Options

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    PS Just £110m of investment in the north going in the bin.
    I am going to name and shame those PBers who fell for Sunak’s bullshit.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,949

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    I am utterly dreading it.

    Plus in the past the TPE Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield service used to arrive/depart from platform 6 now it arrives/departs at platform 13/14 which are death traps.
    Guess who is responsable for no platform 15/16 which would have spread the passenger over another set of platforms
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    In short, No They Won’t. Republic is like the National Secular Society, or Just Stop Oil. They attract a band of committed activists, but come over as cranks to most.

    I see Harry and Meghan remain about as popular as the Conservative Party.
  • Options
    GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,001

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    I am utterly dreading it.

    Plus in the past the TPE Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield service used to arrive/depart from platform 6 now it arrives/departs at platform 13/14 which are death traps.
    13/14 is one of those attritional added crapnesses to everyday life that I'm stuck with. If you've got a pushchair/bike/wheelchair/big suitcase - good luck.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586
    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    eristdoof said:

    FPT

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What are the chances of the UK being the only major European country to have a centre-left government in a couple of years' time?

    Poland says "hi!"

    I think the current situation is not dissimilar to 2008-2010: incumbents got kicked out everywhere. Then because of the Global Financial Crisis, and now because of rising interest rates.

    Hence, the Netherlands kicked out their center left government... but conversely, the (relatively right wing) Conservatives are being punished in the UK, and the United Right being evicted from government in Poland last month.

    Now there are - today - a lot more left wing governments in power in Europe (Germany, Spain, Portugal, and Sweden to name a few). So I'd expect a swing right, but a lot of this is simply going to be kick the incumbent.
    Germany has has a mixed government.
    The SPD are centre-left, the Greens more to the left but not "far left". The FDP Liberals are well to the right. They aren't nationalist like the AfD or CSU but financially and economically they are more to the right than the CDU.
    Ireland has a grand coalition of two right wing parties.

    Morgan Kelly predicted the crash would kill them both. He was wrong about the timeframe, but the crash plus Covid plus Ukraine seems set to do for them and lead to their replacement by Sinn Fein.

    What emerges as a replacement on the right - if it does - is anybody's guess as far as I can see.
    Immigration is by far a bigger issue now

    It could smash open Irish politics. In 15 years they’ve gone from a 5% foreign born population to a 20% foreign born population

    Unsurprisingly, the people are not happy; the Dail’s response is not to adjust to voter concerns but to introduce the world’s harshest hate speech laws (like something from China) in an attempt to stop people talking about it

    It is only coz some Indy journalists did some digging that Irish people now know that the “naturalised Irish citizen” who chopped up those Dublin kids is actually an Algerian, who resisted deportation for 5 years, and has - it seems - never had a job and was arrested for knife possession earlier this year
    Ireland is in an odd place with this. As a country that has exported millions around the globe often due to oppression or famine (including my own ancestors), the emigrant experience and the spectrum of feelings, from grievance to pride, that it encompasses is woven into the myth of the national character of the Irish. So I feel the discourse at least will be different from nations that have historically been more destination than departure point.

    Another related observation:

    A few years ago I had cause to make a few visits to Google’s Dublin HQ. My impression was that it’s essentially a spacecraft of globalism that had landed on the old docks. The staff was maybe 5% Irish - the rest an extraordinary melange of bright, mostly young folk from across Europe and the world (also a fantastic staff canteen).

    Ireland, with its tax regime, has made a big play to attract global businesses like Google, Meta and Amazon. I do not sense that the advantages of this have trickled down to the general populace - rather it turns Dublin from what felt like a fairly parochial regional city - magnificent in its own way, on par with say Glasgow or Liverpool - to a very international and outward-looking place; a soggy Dubai on the Liffey. Flat whites and New England IPAs instead of tea and stout.

    And the infrastructure has not kept pace with the growth. Try getting from the airport to the centre, or vice versa, and you’ll see what I mean.
    Sinn Fein are massively ahead in the polling in Ireland. Sinn Fein is more pro-immigration that the ruling parties. This does not suggest idea that anti-immigration feelings are yet electorally significant.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937
    And in other rail mews, apparently we have *double* the train manufacturing capacity in Britain than we need, due to the lack of planning, centralisation around the awful Azumas, and glut/dearth of orders.

    This means that Derby works, which has been building trains for 175 years, may well close. And we'll be reliant on the cr~p stuff bui;lt by foreign companies. Instead of the cr@p stuff built in Derby.... ;)

    Seriously though, I'm furious abotu this. Hitachi were bad enough; allowing Siemens in as well was hideous.
  • Options

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    Remember that the DfT keep insisting that passenger numbers are down post-Covid. They know that isn't true, but ministers keep parroting the line hoping that nobody who uses the train is voting Tory anyway.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @elenicourea

    Greek papers stressing Sunak is in a position of political weakness

    @Kathimerini_gr
    "It's no coincidence the meeting was cancelled while Mitsotakis was meeting Starmer, who is 20 points ahead"

    @ta_nea
    "Sunak, who was recently forced into a reshuffle, is in a political corner"
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,451

    And in other rail mews, apparently we have *double* the train manufacturing capacity in Britain than we need, due to the lack of planning, centralisation around the awful Azumas, and glut/dearth of orders.

    This means that Derby works, which has been building trains for 175 years, may well close. And we'll be reliant on the cr~p stuff bui;lt by foreign companies. Instead of the cr@p stuff built in Derby.... ;)

    Seriously though, I'm furious abotu this. Hitachi were bad enough; allowing Siemens in as well was hideous.

    I agree.

    Conservative short-termism?

    Or is it actually Treasury obsession with short-term accounts?
  • Options
    Ghedebrav said:

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    I am utterly dreading it.

    Plus in the past the TPE Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield service used to arrive/depart from platform 6 now it arrives/departs at platform 13/14 which are death traps.
    13/14 is one of those attritional added crapnesses to everyday life that I'm stuck with. If you've got a pushchair/bike/wheelchair/big suitcase - good luck.
    The other day there were 9 trains running late at 13/14 all within 15 mins of each other, it was carnage on the platforms.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    Remember that the DfT keep insisting that passenger numbers are down post-Covid. They know that isn't true, but ministers keep parroting the line hoping that nobody who uses the train is voting Tory anyway.
    Passenger numbers are, and are not, down depending on how you measure them. But there's no doubt they're growing, despite the best efforts of the unions, the Treasury and the DfT to reduce the figures.

    We've had 25 years of generally pro-rail governments. We've now got an actively anti-rail government. I don't hold out much hope that Starmer will stand up to the treasury and DfT. New Labour didn't.
  • Options
    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    @GavinBarwell

    "Mr Mitsotakis's appearance on Laura Kuenssberg had irritated Mr Sunak" Seriously? If this is his threshold for cancelling meetings, he is going to have a pretty empty diary. I imagine most of his colleagues irritate him from time to time let alone journalists, the opposition etc


    Sorry, PMQs is cancelled, Richi is having another hissy fit...
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    edited November 2023

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    I am utterly dreading it.

    Plus in the past the TPE Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield service used to arrive/depart from platform 6 now it arrives/departs at platform 13/14 which are death traps.
    They were talking about fixing those through platforms 13/14 two decades ago, when I used to visit Manchester quite regularly. Horrible layout and dangerously overcrowded at peak times.
  • Options

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    Remember that the DfT keep insisting that passenger numbers are down post-Covid. They know that isn't true, but ministers keep parroting the line hoping that nobody who uses the train is voting Tory anyway.
    Passenger numbers are, and are not, down depending on how you measure them. But there's no doubt they're growing, despite the best efforts of the unions, the Treasury and the DfT to reduce the figures.

    We've had 25 years of generally pro-rail governments. We've now got an actively anti-rail government. I don't hold out much hope that Starmer will stand up to the treasury and DfT. New Labour didn't.
    LAB don't have the best record on railways.

    The vast majority of the closures following the Beeching Report of 1963 took place under the LAB government of 1964 - 1970.
  • Options
    theProletheProle Posts: 948

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    As I understand it, a large part of the problem is that the MK5a stock is not from Hitachi but from CAF, known for good reason as Cheap As F***. The locos (not CAF) are very good, but the CAF built hauled stock has been a complete debacle, with it seems as yet, no resolution in sight. They are nice to travel on, but a complete maintenance nightmare, particularly really flakey TMS* software, which manages to make the pretty terrible software on an Hitachi IEP look good. (Personally if I was ordering trains I would insist on dumb rolling stock with no TMS system - you didn't use to have to reboot an HST three times just to get it off the depot, one of the many reasons why they were vastly superior to their replacements. Even the Pacers, miserable although they were to travel on, had gold star levels of reliability thanks to a near genius level of design simplicity and a complete absence of software which was too clever for it's own good).

    TPE has been a DfT controlled disaster zone for a while, (the original mess was largely DfT meddling, before they tried running it directly) but in fairness when you are canceling trains all over the shop because of a lack of traincrew, ditching a small fleet of non-standard stock with appalling reliability rates does at least make it more likely the advertised trains will actually turn up and run.

    *TMS - train management system. Basically everything from brakes to the seat reservations, the door unlocking and maintenance levels of the toilet is software controlled by one central system with a display in the drivers cab. These days when modern trains won't go, it's usually because the poor bloke driving is rebooting the TMS to try and clear some phantom fault condition for long enough to get the doors closed and the unit to take power.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,937

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    Remember that the DfT keep insisting that passenger numbers are down post-Covid. They know that isn't true, but ministers keep parroting the line hoping that nobody who uses the train is voting Tory anyway.
    Passenger numbers are, and are not, down depending on how you measure them. But there's no doubt they're growing, despite the best efforts of the unions, the Treasury and the DfT to reduce the figures.

    We've had 25 years of generally pro-rail governments. We've now got an actively anti-rail government. I don't hold out much hope that Starmer will stand up to the treasury and DfT. New Labour didn't.
    LAB don't have the best record on railways.

    The vast majority of the closures following the Beeching Report of 1963 took place under the LAB government of 1964 - 1970.
    The Blair and Brown governments electrified only - I think - 13 miles of railways in their entire time in power. Thatcher did whole routes, including the ECML. The post-2010 governments have also electrified far more.

    The attitude to rail amongst Labour and the Conservatives is not quite as you would expect. But I have no doubt that this current government is actively hostile towards them.
  • Options
    eek said:

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    I am utterly dreading it.

    Plus in the past the TPE Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield service used to arrive/depart from platform 6 now it arrives/departs at platform 13/14 which are death traps.
    Guess who is responsable for no platform 15/16 which would have spread the passenger over another set of platforms
    I did see a very interesting proposal on Twitter for a bypass of Castlefield. Bore a pair of 2km tunnels to connect the north side of Manchester Piccadilly with the existing railway in Salford (Oldfield Road).

    All of the long distance traffic drops into the tunnel section. This frees up an enormous amount of capacity on the Castlefield viaduct section to run a metro frequency local service...
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,586

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    Remember that the DfT keep insisting that passenger numbers are down post-Covid. They know that isn't true, but ministers keep parroting the line hoping that nobody who uses the train is voting Tory anyway.
    Passenger numbers are, and are not, down depending on how you measure them. But there's no doubt they're growing, despite the best efforts of the unions, the Treasury and the DfT to reduce the figures.

    We've had 25 years of generally pro-rail governments. We've now got an actively anti-rail government. I don't hold out much hope that Starmer will stand up to the treasury and DfT. New Labour didn't.
    LAB don't have the best record on railways.

    The vast majority of the closures following the Beeching Report of 1963 took place under the LAB government of 1964 - 1970.
    The 1964-70 Parliament did legalise abortion and homosexuality, so they’ve got that in the positive column.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,279
    I didn't think it would ever come to this but I am going to need photographic evidence of Platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly pls.

    TIA.
  • Options

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    Remember that the DfT keep insisting that passenger numbers are down post-Covid. They know that isn't true, but ministers keep parroting the line hoping that nobody who uses the train is voting Tory anyway.
    Passenger numbers are, and are not, down depending on how you measure them. But there's no doubt they're growing, despite the best efforts of the unions, the Treasury and the DfT to reduce the figures.

    We've had 25 years of generally pro-rail governments. We've now got an actively anti-rail government. I don't hold out much hope that Starmer will stand up to the treasury and DfT. New Labour didn't.
    LAB don't have the best record on railways.

    The vast majority of the closures following the Beeching Report of 1963 took place under the LAB government of 1964 - 1970.
    The Blair and Brown governments electrified only - I think - 13 miles of railways in their entire time in power. Thatcher did whole routes, including the ECML. The post-2010 governments have also electrified far more.

    The attitude to rail amongst Labour and the Conservatives is not quite as you would expect. But I have no doubt that this current government is actively hostile towards them.
    A blank sheet of paper approach is needed. We currently have the worst of both worlds - a system with private operators being paid a bonus for crap service, because the crap service is being directed by the state.

    Lets do something radical. The European model works - as demonstrated in Britain by all the StateCo operators running our trains. Spin out TrainCo - run by railway professionals with access to state finance rates. Take the DfT into a field and shoot it.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,451
    edited November 2023
    Good morning all.

    It's nice to see a United States Election thread.

    One issue which I have not seen mentioned here, which IMO may be pivotal, is a woman's right to abortion.

    There has been a series of amendments, defeats and ballot initiatives at State level clipping the wings, or overturning, the attempts to make abortion difficult or impossible to provide. And Democrats seem to be winning elections in those circumstances, and in some unexpected places. Was this a factor in the midterms?

    There are initiatives currently planned in around 9 states. The concept put forward is usually around "abortion until the time of fetus viability", which is very much along the lines of the principle here, and in many countries in Europe.

    AFAICS Trump is not backing a federal abortion ban.

    Here's a summary piece on Vox from the summer:
    https://www.vox.com/policy/23784409/abortion-ballot-measure-ohio-reproductive-rights-2024

    Does anyone with a more granular knowledge of USA politics than me have any comments?
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    I didn't think it would ever come to this but I am going to need photographic evidence of Platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly pls.

    TIA.

    https://anonw.com/2018/07/25/improvements-on-platforms-13-and-14-at-manchester-piccadilly-station/
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    eristdoof said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic...

    I've mentioned this before, but (and this is very important from a betting perspective):

    Joe Biden is not on the ballot in New Hampshire. He will not win any Democratic delegates from that race.

    But this is more interesting from a Republican betting angle. How many Democrats will "cross the floor" to vote in the Republican Primary? My guess is "quite a lot". And I would also bet that they will not vote for former President Donald J Trump. (Or, indeed, Ron DeSantis.)

    When betting opens on the Republican primary in New Hampshire, bear this is mind. It could deliver a surprise victory to Nikki Haley or Chris Christie.

    My guess is not many, as the registration deadline has closed. What will count is the registered independents.

    Ahead of primary, nearly 4,000 Democratic voters switch affiliation to Republican or undeclared
    https://newhampshirebulletin.com/briefs/ahead-of-primary-nearly-4000-democratic-voters-switch-affiliation-to-republican-or-undeclared/
    ..The secretary of state’s registration numbers reveal that registered Republicans now outnumber Democrats 269,766 to 265,159 in New Hampshire, but undeclared voters tally 344,212. That balance may shift next year if Democratic-leaning voters switch their affiliations back to the Democratic Party ahead of the state primary and general election in fall 2024...

    Let me get this straight.
    In New Hampshire someone who normally votes Democrat can register as a Republican in order to vote in the Republican party primary. That person can then de-register as a Republican after the primary election and re-register as a Democrat.
    They can then vote in the Democrat primary elections later.

    Am I alone in finding this somewhat bizarre?

    And good morning, everybody!
    You have to decide which primary to vote in for 2024. You can change you mind about this at each election though, so you can be Democrat in 2022, Republican in 2024, and Democrat again in 2026.

    @rcs1000’s contention, is that without Biden on the primary in New Hampshire (as a protest at the order of the primary season), many Dems will turn out as Republicans, to try and give momentum to the more mainstream candidates such as Haley or Christie.
    I interpret this as, if a democrat registers as a "Republican Voter" in 2024 they will also have to vote in the Republican House and Senate Primaries.

    Is that right? If s, it might make some Dem voters resist from making a tactical registration as a "Republican Voter".
    IIRC you register for one party’s primaries, all of them up this year.

    So yes, if you’re a Democrat in NH with a particular dislike of an incumbent Senator, Congressman, or local NH politician up for election, then you might not want to register as a Republican to vote against Trump.
  • Options
    TOPPING said:

    I didn't think it would ever come to this but I am going to need photographic evidence of Platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly pls.

    TIA.

    Here it is.


  • Options
    theProletheProle Posts: 948

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    Remember that the DfT keep insisting that passenger numbers are down post-Covid. They know that isn't true, but ministers keep parroting the line hoping that nobody who uses the train is voting Tory anyway.
    Passenger numbers are, and are not, down depending on how you measure them. But there's no doubt they're growing, despite the best efforts of the unions, the Treasury and the DfT to reduce the figures.

    We've had 25 years of generally pro-rail governments. We've now got an actively anti-rail government. I don't hold out much hope that Starmer will stand up to the treasury and DfT. New Labour didn't.
    LAB don't have the best record on railways.

    The vast majority of the closures following the Beeching Report of 1963 took place under the LAB government of 1964 - 1970.
    The Blair and Brown governments electrified only - I think - 13 miles of railways in their entire time in power. Thatcher did whole routes, including the ECML. The post-2010 governments have also electrified far more.

    The attitude to rail amongst Labour and the Conservatives is not quite as you would expect. But I have no doubt that this current government is actively hostile towards them.
    A blank sheet of paper approach is needed. We currently have the worst of both worlds - a system with private operators being paid a bonus for crap service, because the crap service is being directed by the state.

    Lets do something radical. The European model works - as demonstrated in Britain by all the StateCo operators running our trains. Spin out TrainCo - run by railway professionals with access to state finance rates. Take the DfT into a field and shoot it.
    The original franchising model of privatisation actually worked tolerably well (other than the Railtrack bit), because it aligned incentives (the operators got the fare revenue, so wanted people to use their trains), and it gave them lots of freedom (e.g. to run whatever stock they liked).

    It's since the system became micromanaged by the DfT, that it's all properly gone bad. The best thing would be to nuke the DfT and go back to something like the original franchising model.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    MattW said:

    Good morning all.

    It's nice to see a United States Election thread.

    One issue which I have not seen mentioned here, which IMO may be pivotal, is a woman's right to abortion.

    There has been a series of amendments, defeats and ballot initiatives at State level clipping the wings, or overturning, the attempts to make abortion difficult or impossible to provide. And Democrats seem to be winning elections in those circumstances, and in some unexpected places.

    There are initiatives currently planned in around 9 states. The concept put forward is usually around "abortion until the time of fetus viability", which is very much along the lines of the principle here, and in many countries in Europe.

    AFAICS Trump is not backing a federal abortion ban.

    Here's a summary piece on Vox:
    https://www.vox.com/policy/23784409/abortion-ballot-measure-ohio-reproductive-rights-2024

    Does anyone with a deeper knowledge of USA politics than me have any comments?

    If the Dems are smart and do a similar thing to Bush's reelection bid and get a load of state measures on the ballot regarding abortion at the same time as the Presidential elections, it might help. And of course, women are increasingly more Democratic (even white women, who used to be more of a hold out). We are also seeing an increase in prosecution for women having miscarriages in the aim of policing abortion, which is... sad.

    It could give Biden the edge, but in fairness Trump is not the most anti-choice candidate out there and is not running on it as an issue. Someone like DeSantis would likely be weaker to those kind of attacks then Trump. I also think the failure of Dems to actually do anything to protect people who want abortions (like opening federal barracks medical facilities in states with bans up for use for this) and their weak sauce response to SCOTUS (who even leaked the goddamn case giving them time to prepare) have stopped this becoming a huge movement.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,859
    edited November 2023
    TOPPING said:

    I didn't think it would ever come to this but I am going to need photographic evidence of Platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly pls.

    TIA.

    13 and 14 are the two platforms right at the bottom of the image, the only two for which trains pass through rather than a terminus station. To get to them, you have to walk from the main entrance all the way down another platform, then go up onto the bridge and down the other side.


  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,949

    TOPPING said:

    I didn't think it would ever come to this but I am going to need photographic evidence of Platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly pls.

    TIA.

    Here it is.


    And remember these are the only through platforms at Manchester Piccadilly - TSE isn’t kidding when he says you can have 1,000+ people waiting for their train to arrive
  • Options
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    I didn't think it would ever come to this but I am going to need photographic evidence of Platforms 13/14 at Manchester Piccadilly pls.

    TIA.

    Here it is.


    And remember these are the only through platforms at Manchester Piccadilly - TSE isn’t kidding when he says you can have 1,000+ people waiting for their train to arrive
    There is a lift but takes 6 people with luggage/wheelchairs at a time.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    Food price inflation down to just over 4%, this matches with my lived experience, lots of prices falling now and only a few rising. I think by the end of March we may be close to deflation in food prices, just going by what is falling out of the calculation and what is likely to enter.

    In April I expect prices to rise a bit due to the minimum wage going up, I think that adds 2-3% onto food prices but it's probably worth it to give the low paid a pretty big pay rise.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    In short, No They Won’t. Republic is like the National Secular Society, or Just Stop Oil. They attract a band of committed activists, but come over as cranks to most.

    I see Harry and Meghan remain about as popular as the Conservative Party.
    The monarchy is impossible to abolish until a particular condition is met. It has to be an electoral advantage to put 'a Referendum on Abolishing the Monarchy' in a general election manifesto.

    This can't happen as long as the question would negatively sway even a million or so royalist voters. So, for example, if Labour put it in their manifesto (which of course they won't) I would not vote for them, and I am very much a centrist moderate about politics, including the monarchy.

    There are of course two big questions. Not only 'abolition' but also 'what replaces it'. The second is, in the age of elected heads of state like Trump, difficult. Monarchy replaced by Boris/Farage/Corbyn/ Gazza/Elton John anyone?
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    MaxPB said:

    Food price inflation down to just over 4%, this matches with my lived experience, lots of prices falling now and only a few rising. I think by the end of March we may be close to deflation in food prices, just going by what is falling out of the calculation and what is likely to enter.

    In April I expect prices to rise a bit due to the minimum wage going up, I think that adds 2-3% onto food prices but it's probably worth it to give the low paid a pretty big pay rise.

    Are there unlived experiences?
  • Options
    theProle said:

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    Remember that the DfT keep insisting that passenger numbers are down post-Covid. They know that isn't true, but ministers keep parroting the line hoping that nobody who uses the train is voting Tory anyway.
    Passenger numbers are, and are not, down depending on how you measure them. But there's no doubt they're growing, despite the best efforts of the unions, the Treasury and the DfT to reduce the figures.

    We've had 25 years of generally pro-rail governments. We've now got an actively anti-rail government. I don't hold out much hope that Starmer will stand up to the treasury and DfT. New Labour didn't.
    LAB don't have the best record on railways.

    The vast majority of the closures following the Beeching Report of 1963 took place under the LAB government of 1964 - 1970.
    The Blair and Brown governments electrified only - I think - 13 miles of railways in their entire time in power. Thatcher did whole routes, including the ECML. The post-2010 governments have also electrified far more.

    The attitude to rail amongst Labour and the Conservatives is not quite as you would expect. But I have no doubt that this current government is actively hostile towards them.
    A blank sheet of paper approach is needed. We currently have the worst of both worlds - a system with private operators being paid a bonus for crap service, because the crap service is being directed by the state.

    Lets do something radical. The European model works - as demonstrated in Britain by all the StateCo operators running our trains. Spin out TrainCo - run by railway professionals with access to state finance rates. Take the DfT into a field and shoot it.
    The original franchising model of privatisation actually worked tolerably well (other than the Railtrack bit), because it aligned incentives (the operators got the fare revenue, so wanted people to use their trains), and it gave them lots of freedom (e.g. to run whatever stock they liked).

    It's since the system became micromanaged by the DfT, that it's all properly gone bad. The best thing would be to nuke the DfT and go back to something like the original franchising model.
    The longer term franchises - where the operator understood how railways worked - were good. Chiltern, Virgin West Coast etc. Too many were short term and run by bus companies who didn't know what they were doing.

    The Simple Truth is that the franchising model was set up to promote competition and for most journeys there is a single operator and always will be. The competition is rail vs road vs air, not red train vs blue train.

    A few routes can have open access competition and that works well. The rest? Forget it.
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    In short, No They Won’t. Republic is like the National Secular Society, or Just Stop Oil. They attract a band of committed activists, but come over as cranks to most.

    I see Harry and Meghan remain about as popular as the Conservative Party.
    The monarchy is impossible to abolish until a particular condition is met. It has to be an electoral advantage to put 'a Referendum on Abolishing the Monarchy' in a general election manifesto.

    This can't happen as long as the question would negatively sway even a million or so royalist voters. So, for example, if Labour put it in their manifesto (which of course they won't) I would not vote for them, and I am very much a centrist moderate about politics, including the monarchy.

    There are of course two big questions. Not only 'abolition' but also 'what replaces it'. The second is, in the age of elected heads of state like Trump, difficult. Monarchy replaced by Boris/Farage/Corbyn/ Gazza/Elton John anyone?
    A democratic head of state is more legitimate than a non elected one - even if they're an awful person. Your position is "democracy is good, except for this part, where bloodline is apparently a good enough qualification".
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,596

    Ghedebrav said:

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    I am utterly dreading it.

    Plus in the past the TPE Manchester Piccadilly to Sheffield service used to arrive/depart from platform 6 now it arrives/departs at platform 13/14 which are death traps.
    13/14 is one of those attritional added crapnesses to everyday life that I'm stuck with. If you've got a pushchair/bike/wheelchair/big suitcase - good luck.
    The other day there were 9 trains running late at 13/14 all within 15 mins of each other, it was carnage on the platforms.
    Top tip: If your train is leaving from P13 and you arrive early enough, get the first train to Oxford Road so that you can board there. Even if the train is very busy, when a load of folk get off at Pic, you'll have plenty of seats to choose from before the crowds can get on.

    I sometimes do the reverse when waiting at Oxford Road to go the other way - go to Pic to get on early.
  • Options
    MaxPB said:

    Food price inflation down to just over 4%, this matches with my lived experience, lots of prices falling now and only a few rising. I think by the end of March we may be close to deflation in food prices, just going by what is falling out of the calculation and what is likely to enter.

    In April I expect prices to rise a bit due to the minimum wage going up, I think that adds 2-3% onto food prices but it's probably worth it to give the low paid a pretty big pay rise.

    There is an interesting thing happening. Supermarkets are just about moving back into bottom line profit on many food items having made a loss for an extended period. They have been using petrol as the backstop for profit - no fuel price wars as of old, just decent margins on high volumes to balance off against the food parts of the business.

    In the old days one of the big supermarkets would have gone for it - big price cuts on food or fuel with the others having to follow. Asda and Morrisons are out of that game - so heavily loaded with debt that their VC owners won't allow scale price cuts.

    That allows Tesco and Sainsbury's to maintain higher fuel prices to cover their food losses and start to pull a few prices back from their peak. Its a few though rather than the whole basket - they need a return to profitability first before that happens.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    Note too the influence of the evangelical vote in Iowa, especially on the Republican side. While moderates tend to win in New Hampshire.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,451
    edited November 2023
    148grss said:

    MattW said:

    Good morning all.

    It's nice to see a United States Election thread.

    One issue which I have not seen mentioned here, which IMO may be pivotal, is a woman's right to abortion.

    There has been a series of amendments, defeats and ballot initiatives at State level clipping the wings, or overturning, the attempts to make abortion difficult or impossible to provide. And Democrats seem to be winning elections in those circumstances, and in some unexpected places.

    There are initiatives currently planned in around 9 states. The concept put forward is usually around "abortion until the time of fetus viability", which is very much along the lines of the principle here, and in many countries in Europe.

    AFAICS Trump is not backing a federal abortion ban.

    Here's a summary piece on Vox:
    https://www.vox.com/policy/23784409/abortion-ballot-measure-ohio-reproductive-rights-2024

    Does anyone with a deeper knowledge of USA politics than me have any comments?

    If the Dems are smart and do a similar thing to Bush's reelection bid and get a load of state measures on the ballot regarding abortion at the same time as the Presidential elections, it might help. And of course, women are increasingly more Democratic (even white women, who used to be more of a hold out). We are also seeing an increase in prosecution for women having miscarriages in the aim of policing abortion, which is... sad.

    It could give Biden the edge, but in fairness Trump is not the most anti-choice candidate out there and is not running on it as an issue. Someone like DeSantis would likely be weaker to those kind of attacks then Trump. I also think the failure of Dems to actually do anything to protect people who want abortions (like opening federal barracks medical facilities in states with bans up for use for this) and their weak sauce response to SCOTUS (who even leaked the goddamn case giving them time to prepare) have stopped this becoming a huge movement.
    This (from March 2023) looks to me like a good 'landscape' / 'scoping' summary at that time - quoting in full:

    Citizen-initiated ballot measures are the most viable strategy to protect access to abortion and enshrine this right into state constitutions for long-term security.

    There are ten states that allow for citizen-initiated ballot measures and where abortion is under threat—the three states where such a ballot measure would have the greatest likelihood of passage are Arizona, Florida, and Ohio.

    Of the 34 states that prevent citizens from initiating constitutional amendments via ballot initiative, 15 of those already have six-week or complete abortion bans currently on the books—the election of pro-choice state legislators, governors, and, in some states, judges are vital in these states.

    Gubernatorial races focused around protecting reproductive rights and serving as a bulwark against the GOP’s extreme abortion agenda will be salient and likely have down-ballot benefits for Democrats who are following the Democratic gubernatorial nominee’s lead.

    Twenty-two states select their jurists through either partisan or nonpartisan elections—Wisconsin has the first state supreme court election in April 2023 *, which will be crucial for the future of abortion access in the state.

    https://www.thirdway.org/memo/abortion-on-the-ballot-protecting-access-in-2023-and-2024

    * A liberal judge was elected to the Wisconsin supreme court and the anti-abortion measures have been reversed - not sure on details or how far it is irrevocable yet.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    148grss said:

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    In short, No They Won’t. Republic is like the National Secular Society, or Just Stop Oil. They attract a band of committed activists, but come over as cranks to most.

    I see Harry and Meghan remain about as popular as the Conservative Party.
    The monarchy is impossible to abolish until a particular condition is met. It has to be an electoral advantage to put 'a Referendum on Abolishing the Monarchy' in a general election manifesto.

    This can't happen as long as the question would negatively sway even a million or so royalist voters. So, for example, if Labour put it in their manifesto (which of course they won't) I would not vote for them, and I am very much a centrist moderate about politics, including the monarchy.

    There are of course two big questions. Not only 'abolition' but also 'what replaces it'. The second is, in the age of elected heads of state like Trump, difficult. Monarchy replaced by Boris/Farage/Corbyn/ Gazza/Elton John anyone?
    A democratic head of state is more legitimate than a non elected one - even if they're an awful person. Your position is "democracy is good, except for this part, where bloodline is apparently a good enough qualification".
    Virtually all constitutional
    monarchies in the world today are monarchies while plenty of Republics are dictatorships.

    UK voters also don't want a divisive party politician as head of state however much Republic and the Guardian try and push the issue.

    Let us not forget either when Labour has had pro Republic leaders like Foot or Corbyn it has been heavily defeated
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    MattW said:

    Good morning all.

    It's nice to see a United States Election thread.

    One issue which I have not seen mentioned here, which IMO may be pivotal, is a woman's right to abortion.

    There has been a series of amendments, defeats and ballot initiatives at State level clipping the wings, or overturning, the attempts to make abortion difficult or impossible to provide. And Democrats seem to be winning elections in those circumstances, and in some unexpected places. Was this a factor in the midterms?

    There are initiatives currently planned in around 9 states. The concept put forward is usually around "abortion until the time of fetus viability", which is very much along the lines of the principle here, and in many countries in Europe.

    AFAICS Trump is not backing a federal abortion ban.

    Here's a summary piece on Vox from the summer:
    https://www.vox.com/policy/23784409/abortion-ballot-measure-ohio-reproductive-rights-2024

    Does anyone with a more granular knowledge of USA politics than me have any comments?

    I think @rcs1000 is correct.

    If abortion is the main issue, in November 2004, the Democrats will win. If the economy is the main issue, the Republicans will win.

    Regardless of the Presidential election, it's very hard to see the Democrats holding the Senate, simply because of the nature of the seats that are being contested. West Virginia is lost, and Ohio, Montana, and Arizona, extremely vulnerable. The Republicans only need one of those three to take control.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,326
    edited November 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    So who will actually be on the Dem primary ballot in New Hampshire?

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

    Dean Philips (no, me neither), Marianne Williamson, and a bunch of kooky no-hopers?

    Unless a Gavin Newsom or a Joe Manchin formally step up, could Biden end up winning with write-ins on a low turnout?

    The last two are unlikely, with an Oct 27th filing deadline.
    Ah yes, so the deadline has already passed.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_Hampshire_Democratic_presidential_primary

    21 candidates on the ballot, only five of whom are notable enough to have a Wiki profile!


    The four who rate a Wikipedia page are (and I'm not joking):

    Vermin Supreme: "an American performance artist and activist who has run as a candidate in various local, state, and national elections in the United States. He served as a member of the Libertarian Party's judicial committee.[3][4][5][6] Supreme is known for wearing a boot as a hat and carrying a large toothbrush,[7] and has said that if elected President of the United States, he will pass a law requiring people to brush their teeth.[4][8][9][10] He has campaigned on a platform of zombie apocalypse awareness and time travel research,[11] and promised a free pony for every American.[12]"

    Paperboy Prince: "Prince is non-binary and prefers the pronouns they/them or the neopronouns God/Goddess.[3][7][5] They dress as "royalty" to draw attention to how politicians can hold power for longer than kings or queens.[8] In an interview with fashion magazine V, Prince explained how freedom in fashion encourages freedom in thinking and welcoming of diversity.[32] They often wear a Game Boy Advance SP or Game Boy Color around their neck.[6]"

    Marianne Williamson: crazy self help author who wrote "Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness, that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented, fabulous? Actually, who are you not to be? You are a child of God. Your playing small doesn't serve the world. There's nothing enlightened about shrinking so that other people won't feel insecure around you. We are all meant to shine, as children do. We were born to make manifest the glory of God that is within us. It's not just in some of us; it's in everyone. And as we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. As we're liberated from our own fear, our presence automatically liberates others."

    Dean Philips: Who?
    Lol, good spots! But Dean Phillips (two l's) actually sounds OK: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dean_Phillips
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    MattW said:

    Good morning all.

    It's nice to see a United States Election thread.

    One issue which I have not seen mentioned here, which IMO may be pivotal, is a woman's right to abortion.

    There has been a series of amendments, defeats and ballot initiatives at State level clipping the wings, or overturning, the attempts to make abortion difficult or impossible to provide. And Democrats seem to be winning elections in those circumstances, and in some unexpected places. Was this a factor in the midterms?

    There are initiatives currently planned in around 9 states. The concept put forward is usually around "abortion until the time of fetus viability", which is very much along the lines of the principle here, and in many countries in Europe.

    AFAICS Trump is not backing a federal abortion ban.

    Here's a summary piece on Vox from the summer:
    https://www.vox.com/policy/23784409/abortion-ballot-measure-ohio-reproductive-rights-2024

    Does anyone with a more granular knowledge of USA politics than me have any comments?

    Abortion in many European countries, even Germany and Italy, is not allowed after 12 weeks which is more restricted than both here and many coastal US states
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    In short, No They Won’t. Republic is like the National Secular Society, or Just Stop Oil. They attract a band of committed activists, but come over as cranks to most.

    I see Harry and Meghan remain about as popular as the Conservative Party.
    The monarchy is impossible to abolish until a particular condition is met. It has to be an electoral advantage to put 'a Referendum on Abolishing the Monarchy' in a general election manifesto.

    This can't happen as long as the question would negatively sway even a million or so royalist voters. So, for example, if Labour put it in their manifesto (which of course they won't) I would not vote for them, and I am very much a centrist moderate about politics, including the monarchy.

    There are of course two big questions. Not only 'abolition' but also 'what replaces it'. The second is, in the age of elected heads of state like Trump, difficult. Monarchy replaced by Boris/Farage/Corbyn/ Gazza/Elton John anyone?
    A democratic head of state is more legitimate than a non elected one - even if they're an awful person. Your position is "democracy is good, except for this part, where bloodline is apparently a good enough qualification".
    Virtually all constitutional
    monarchies in the world today are monarchies while plenty of Republics are dictatorships.

    UK voters also don't want a divisive party politician as head of state however much Republic and the Guardian try and push the issue.

    Let us not forget either when Labour has had pro Republic leaders like Foot or Corbyn it has been heavily defeated
    If the Windsor's want to be the head of state so bad, they're free to run for the job. But the idea that we can defend hereditary monarchy who have the power to veto laws (and typically use that veto to specifically make their personal interests untouched by laws) in a democratic society is ridiculous. If you want them to still exist - take away their ability to have any say in any part of governance. I'd be fine with that. But as long as they have a material role in how governance works, they should not exist and such a role, of course, should be chosen democratically.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,451
    edited November 2023

    MaxPB said:

    Food price inflation down to just over 4%, this matches with my lived experience, lots of prices falling now and only a few rising. I think by the end of March we may be close to deflation in food prices, just going by what is falling out of the calculation and what is likely to enter.

    In April I expect prices to rise a bit due to the minimum wage going up, I think that adds 2-3% onto food prices but it's probably worth it to give the low paid a pretty big pay rise.

    There is an interesting thing happening. Supermarkets are just about moving back into bottom line profit on many food items having made a loss for an extended period. They have been using petrol as the backstop for profit - no fuel price wars as of old, just decent margins on high volumes to balance off against the food parts of the business.

    In the old days one of the big supermarkets would have gone for it - big price cuts on food or fuel with the others having to follow. Asda and Morrisons are out of that game - so heavily loaded with debt that their VC owners won't allow scale price cuts.

    That allows Tesco and Sainsbury's to maintain higher fuel prices to cover their food losses and start to pull a few prices back from their peak. Its a few though rather than the whole basket - they need a return to profitability first before that happens.
    My experience of Morrisons is that they are going downhill and losing distinctiveness / diversity of product range - starting in some ways to turn into a mini-me Sainsburys / ASDA.

    I've been shopping for some things at Morrisons since University in the 1980s whenever I am based in a Morrisons area; they are my largest local supermarket.

    They have already lost my frequency of visit, and for me it is already a less desirable option.
  • Options
    Good morning, my fellow loyal monarchists and assorted republican scallywags.
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,800
    148grss said:

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    In short, No They Won’t. Republic is like the National Secular Society, or Just Stop Oil. They attract a band of committed activists, but come over as cranks to most.

    I see Harry and Meghan remain about as popular as the Conservative Party.
    The monarchy is impossible to abolish until a particular condition is met. It has to be an electoral advantage to put 'a Referendum on Abolishing the Monarchy' in a general election manifesto.

    This can't happen as long as the question would negatively sway even a million or so royalist voters. So, for example, if Labour put it in their manifesto (which of course they won't) I would not vote for them, and I am very much a centrist moderate about politics, including the monarchy.

    There are of course two big questions. Not only 'abolition' but also 'what replaces it'. The second is, in the age of elected heads of state like Trump, difficult. Monarchy replaced by Boris/Farage/Corbyn/ Gazza/Elton John anyone?
    A democratic head of state is more legitimate than a non elected one - even if they're an awful person. Your position is "democracy is good, except for this part, where bloodline is apparently a good enough qualification".
    Titles don't matter. Some countries that are republics in name, are monarchies in reality. Some monarchies vest the majority of power in the elected representatives. But, in all countries, actual power is wielded by a pretty small section of the population.

  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    Sean_F said:

    148grss said:

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    In short, No They Won’t. Republic is like the National Secular Society, or Just Stop Oil. They attract a band of committed activists, but come over as cranks to most.

    I see Harry and Meghan remain about as popular as the Conservative Party.
    The monarchy is impossible to abolish until a particular condition is met. It has to be an electoral advantage to put 'a Referendum on Abolishing the Monarchy' in a general election manifesto.

    This can't happen as long as the question would negatively sway even a million or so royalist voters. So, for example, if Labour put it in their manifesto (which of course they won't) I would not vote for them, and I am very much a centrist moderate about politics, including the monarchy.

    There are of course two big questions. Not only 'abolition' but also 'what replaces it'. The second is, in the age of elected heads of state like Trump, difficult. Monarchy replaced by Boris/Farage/Corbyn/ Gazza/Elton John anyone?
    A democratic head of state is more legitimate than a non elected one - even if they're an awful person. Your position is "democracy is good, except for this part, where bloodline is apparently a good enough qualification".
    Titles don't matter. Some countries that are republics in name, are monarchies in reality. Some monarchies vest the majority of power in the elected representatives. But, in all countries, actual power is wielded by a pretty small section of the population.

    Look, like the people who voted out of the EU for ideological over material reasons - I am ideologically opposed to the idea of hereditary monarchy / aristocracy and their involvement in politics. I am also against lots of the inequitable distribution of power in politics.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    edited November 2023
    148grss said:

    Average rent in Great Britain up by more than a quarter since start of Covid
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/28/average-rent-great-britain-properties-interest-rates-savills

    Was talking to a friend of mine about this last night (he's a teacher at a private school). He was talking about how he and some younger colleagues are having to opt out of long term pension payments to make rent. By allowing landlordism and rent seeking to go out of control, alongside the refusal to build any affordable public housing, a huge number of people in their 30s are just completely buggered. We need a government who wants to break the backs of landlords as much as Thatcher wanted to break the power of unions.
    Many private school teachers, especially at the major public schools, get a house rent free as a perk of the job.

    Yes we need more affordable housing but then as local elections show there is lots of local Nimby opposition to any building on the greenbelt
    certainly. We also still need landlords as not everyone can afford to buy and some like the flexibility of renting eg students, the young and unmarried and those on contract work
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504
    148grss said:

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    In short, No They Won’t. Republic is like the National Secular Society, or Just Stop Oil. They attract a band of committed activists, but come over as cranks to most.

    I see Harry and Meghan remain about as popular as the Conservative Party.
    The monarchy is impossible to abolish until a particular condition is met. It has to be an electoral advantage to put 'a Referendum on Abolishing the Monarchy' in a general election manifesto.

    This can't happen as long as the question would negatively sway even a million or so royalist voters. So, for example, if Labour put it in their manifesto (which of course they won't) I would not vote for them, and I am very much a centrist moderate about politics, including the monarchy.

    There are of course two big questions. Not only 'abolition' but also 'what replaces it'. The second is, in the age of elected heads of state like Trump, difficult. Monarchy replaced by Boris/Farage/Corbyn/ Gazza/Elton John anyone?
    A democratic head of state is more legitimate than a non elected one - even if they're an awful person. Your position is "democracy is good, except for this part, where bloodline is apparently a good enough qualification".
    Theory: In the UK the status on the monarchy in a matter for parliament. Our monarchy is part of a constitution in which parliament can abolish the monarchy, but the monarchy can't abolish parliament.

    Practical: I shall keep Charles III. You may keep Putin and Trump.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,994
    148grss said:

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    In short, No They Won’t. Republic is like the National Secular Society, or Just Stop Oil. They attract a band of committed activists, but come over as cranks to most.

    I see Harry and Meghan remain about as popular as the Conservative Party.
    The monarchy is impossible to abolish until a particular condition is met. It has to be an electoral advantage to put 'a Referendum on Abolishing the Monarchy' in a general election manifesto.

    This can't happen as long as the question would negatively sway even a million or so royalist voters. So, for example, if Labour put it in their manifesto (which of course they won't) I would not vote for them, and I am very much a centrist moderate about politics, including the monarchy.

    There are of course two big questions. Not only 'abolition' but also 'what replaces it'. The second is, in the age of elected heads of state like Trump, difficult. Monarchy replaced by Boris/Farage/Corbyn/ Gazza/Elton John anyone?
    A democratic head of state is more legitimate than a non elected one - even if they're an awful person. Your position is "democracy is good, except for this part, where bloodline is apparently a good enough qualification".
    Hitler was elected
  • Options
    148grss148grss Posts: 3,679
    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    Average rent in Great Britain up by more than a quarter since start of Covid
    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2023/nov/28/average-rent-great-britain-properties-interest-rates-savills

    Was talking to a friend of mine about this last night (he's a teacher at a private school). He was talking about how he and some younger colleagues are having to opt out of long term pension payments to make rent. By allowing landlordism and rent seeking to go out of control, alongside the refusal to build any affordable public housing, a huge number of people in their 30s are just completely buggered. We need a government who wants to break the backs of landlords as much as Thatcher wanted to break the power of unions.
    Many private school teachers, especially at the major public schools, get a house rent free as a perk of the job.

    Yes we need more affordable housing but then as local elections show there is lots of local Nimby opposition to any building on the greenbelt
    certainly. We also still need landlords as not everyone can afford to buy and some like the flexibility of renting eg students, the young and unmarried and those on contract work
    You don't need landlords to rent houses - if no one lives there, the house still exists. You can either just live in it, or it could be a public asset. Private landlords are just rent seeking leeches.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,949

    Greece wants the marbles reunited with the Parthenon, so we’re going back for the rest of it.

    https://twitter.com/BenedictSpence/status/1729430374122475826
  • Options

    So the real Network North outcome will be felt in a week or two when the timetable changes over on TPE and the additional capacity provided by the Class 68 + Mk5 Hitachi sets will be consigned to the sidings, entirely at the behest of the meddlers in the DfT.

    The story of these trainsets has been a shambles from start to finish. Never properly utilised despite being very well designed, their introduction coincided with the Covid downturn and for the last year or two they have mostly ended up working York to Scarborough shuttles with the odd peak hours venture across to Manchester.

    But as anyone who regularly uses TPE knows, passenger numbers are now recovering fast and the additional capacity these sets offered will be sorely needed.

    Expect to hear horror stories about TPE overcrowding in the run up to Xmas.

    Remember that the DfT keep insisting that passenger numbers are down post-Covid. They know that isn't true, but ministers keep parroting the line hoping that nobody who uses the train is voting Tory anyway.
    Passenger numbers are, and are not, down depending on how you measure them. But there's no doubt they're growing, despite the best efforts of the unions, the Treasury and the DfT to reduce the figures.

    We've had 25 years of generally pro-rail governments. We've now got an actively anti-rail government. I don't hold out much hope that Starmer will stand up to the treasury and DfT. New Labour didn't.
    LAB don't have the best record on railways.

    The vast majority of the closures following the Beeching Report of 1963 took place under the LAB government of 1964 - 1970.
    The 1964-70 Parliament did legalise abortion and homosexuality, so they’ve got that in the positive column.
    And Wilson kept us out of Vietnam.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    148grss said:

    HYUFD said:

    148grss said:

    algarkirk said:

    Sean_F said:

    Leon said:

    Guardian Exclusive

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/nov/28/the-monarchy-looks-vulnerable-will-britains-republicans-bring-down-the-king

    THE MONARCHY LOOKS VULNERABLE!

    Narrator: polls say 62% of Brits support the monarchy, 26% say replace it: more than two to one. And about the same support as in 2012

    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/46032-one-year-of-king-charles-how-do-britons-feel-ab

    In short, No They Won’t. Republic is like the National Secular Society, or Just Stop Oil. They attract a band of committed activists, but come over as cranks to most.

    I see Harry and Meghan remain about as popular as the Conservative Party.
    The monarchy is impossible to abolish until a particular condition is met. It has to be an electoral advantage to put 'a Referendum on Abolishing the Monarchy' in a general election manifesto.

    This can't happen as long as the question would negatively sway even a million or so royalist voters. So, for example, if Labour put it in their manifesto (which of course they won't) I would not vote for them, and I am very much a centrist moderate about politics, including the monarchy.

    There are of course two big questions. Not only 'abolition' but also 'what replaces it'. The second is, in the age of elected heads of state like Trump, difficult. Monarchy replaced by Boris/Farage/Corbyn/ Gazza/Elton John anyone?
    A democratic head of state is more legitimate than a non elected one - even if they're an awful person. Your position is "democracy is good, except for this part, where bloodline is apparently a good enough qualification".
    Virtually all constitutional
    monarchies in the world today are monarchies while plenty of Republics are dictatorships.

    UK voters also don't want a divisive party politician as head of state however much Republic and the Guardian try and push the issue.

    Let us not forget either when Labour has had pro Republic leaders like Foot or Corbyn it has been heavily defeated
    If the Windsor's want to be the head of state so bad, they're free to run for the job. But the idea that we can defend hereditary monarchy who have the power to veto laws (and typically use that veto to specifically make their personal interests untouched by laws) in a democratic society is ridiculous. If you want them to still exist - take away their ability to have any say in any part of governance. I'd be fine with that. But as long as they have a material role in how governance works, they should not exist and such a role, of course, should be chosen democratically.
    The whole point of monarchy is it is unelected and non party political. If people wanted a republic they could have voted for the Republican Corbyn in 2019 or 2017 but the monarchist Tories beat him and now even Starmer backs a reformed monarchy.

    Constitutional monarchies are all democratic, the King doesn't veto laws passed by Parliament but plenty of Republics like Syria or China or increasingly Russia and Iran are effectively dictatorships
This discussion has been closed.