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Why I now think an early election is likely – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,014
edited November 2023 in General
imageWhy I now think an early election is now likely – politicalbetting.com

Tory campaign manager Isaac Levido to rejoin CCHQ amid speculation of early electionhttps://t.co/1gqmvo688n

Read the full story here

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    First like Lord Cameron in every general election he led the Tories in.
  • Options
    Levido was signed up five months before the last election but on the other hand, this was as soon as Boris became Prime Minister. In light of that, I'd not take Levido moving from Number 10 to CCHQ as meaning anything other than parliament being dissolved in 2024 and we all knew that anyway.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,952
    edited November 2023
    Third.
    Good job he's not leading this shower then.
  • Options
    It is interesting that alcohol got the lowest approval rate. We've moved a long way from a pub on every street corner.
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,121

    First like Lord Cameron in every general election he led the Tories in.

    And of course his magnificent Scottish Referendum victory.

    Shame about the EU Referendum. Still you can't win 'em all. No harm done!
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,447
    Good morning all.
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    Snap election speculation as Treasury mulls early Budget
    Bringing forward Budget, usually held in March, would allow time for any tax cuts to improve voters’ finances before they go to polls

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/11/23/snap-election-speculation-treasury-mulls-early-budget/ (£££)
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    Plan A is 2nd May. The emergency legislation to bring forward the NI tax cut / rise but not as much as we'd announced previously is the kicker. Let everyone benefit from higher taxes from January, as April is too late for a May election.

    I am appreciative. Whilst it would have been funny to watch Rishi cling on it means we get shut of this shower of shit quicker than we could have hoped. And on a personal level now that I am running it means that I know how long my commitment is - 4 months.
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    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,772
    The latest Techne poll shows Labour increasing their lead by 1 point.

    Lab 46
    Con 21

    I don’t buy this May election talk .
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    Potential bad news for punters in the Chancellor's small print.

    Although chancellor of the exchequer Jeremy Hunt's autumn statement to the House of Commons on Wednesday did not include any references to gambling, the documents published alongside did contain potentially grave news for the [racing] industry.

    Under a chapter titled Backing British Business (point 5.86), the document said the government "will consult shortly on proposals to bring remote gambling [meaning gambling offered over the internet, telephone, TV and radio] into a single tax, rather than taxing it through a three-tax structure".

    General betting duty and pool betting duty are set at 15 per cent of an operator's profits, but remote gaming duty, levied on games of chance such as online casino, is set at 21 per cent.

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/britain/potential-online-gambling-tax-hike-threatens-to-blow-up-funding-of-racing-atPho2H1ZEGy/
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,078
    edited November 2023
    The best motorway services is Leeds Skelton Lake and that is the end of the discussion.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960

    The best motorway services is Leeds Skelton Lake and that is the end of the discussion.

    Good morning everybody!

    To be honest, I didn’t think the discussion had started! Was it on the earlier thread? Anyway, Skelton Lake must be pretty good to be better than Tebay!
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    There's two things a May election has going for it really for the Government. One is avoiding a total bloodbath in the local council elections. You save some councillors and ground troops from higher overall turnout. Secondly, whilst something might turn up, a May election happens before things get even worse for them e.g. more people re-mortgaging at higher rates, more people falling off gas and electric fixes, possible recession etc.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    And of course if the Tories continue to gain 4 percentage points a week they will have a healthy lead by then.

    I think Sunak will be reluctant to hang on to the bitter end like Brown and Major.
  • Options
    All of those are good policies individually.

    But the problem is that the Government is still massively increasing taxes by fiscal drag.

    Giving small tax cuts funded by much bigger tax rises, isn't anything to be proud of.

    Still, for the longer term rebalancing of the economy and taxes, I would be OK with another five years of fiscal drag if the next five years saw a further 2% per year cut in National Insurance - though Employers National Insurance needs dealing with too.
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Just had one of the most amusing lunches of my life. With a Khmer woman and a French woman - both in their 20s. Highly intelligent and full of terrrrrriby naughty gossip

    I had the steak at Cuts. Superb

    https://www.rosewoodhotels.com/en/phnom-penh/dining/cuts
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    Alternatively, the government has to keep the May option as open as possible as long as possible. If they put all their eggs in the October basket, they're in deep trouble.

    Their problem is that neither option looks great, and they can't know in advance which is better. I'm reminded of Murray Gell-Mann's comments on studying at MIT;

    It occurred to me that I could try MIT, first, and then commit suicide. Whereas I couldn’t do things in reverse order: if I committed suicide, I could not then, afterwards, try MIT.”
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    eekeek Posts: 24,947

    The best motorway services is Leeds Skelton Lake and that is the end of the discussion.

    Nope - it's good but the Westmorland ones (Tebay, Gloucester) show how much better they could be.

    If Skelton is M&S, Tebay is the Booths of services...
  • Options

    All of those are good policies individually.

    But the problem is that the Government is still massively increasing taxes by fiscal drag.

    Giving small tax cuts funded by much bigger tax rises, isn't anything to be proud of.

    Still, for the longer term rebalancing of the economy and taxes, I would be OK with another five years of fiscal drag if the next five years saw a further 2% per year cut in National Insurance - though Employers National Insurance needs dealing with too.

    What about tax cuts balanced by phoney baloney spending cuts? There is no plan whatsoever to make the necessary savings .
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,576
    DavidL said:

    And of course if the Tories continue to gain 4 percentage points a week they will have a healthy lead by then.

    I think Sunak will be reluctant to hang on to the bitter end like Brown and Major.

    Tory lead of 20% by Christmas?

    We have a true believer!
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    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    OldBasing said:

    There's two things a May election has going for it really for the Government. One is avoiding a total bloodbath in the local council elections. You save some councillors and ground troops from higher overall turnout. Secondly, whilst something might turn up, a May election happens before things get even worse for them e.g. more people re-mortgaging at higher rates, more people falling off gas and electric fixes, possible recession etc.

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960
    edited November 2023
    All this talk and discussion about when the election might be simply demonstrates what a good idea the FTPA was, and how foolish the conservatives were in revoking it.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,202
    OldBasing said:

    There's two things a May election has going for it really for the Government. One is avoiding a total bloodbath in the local council elections. You save some councillors and ground troops from higher overall turnout. Secondly, whilst something might turn up, a May election happens before things get even worse for them e.g. more people re-mortgaging at higher rates, more people falling off gas and electric fixes, possible recession etc.

    A May election is at a time when people are feeling more optimistic. I’m pretty sure the Tories will get a marginally less thorough shoeing in May than they would in late Autumn, or heaven forfend after Xmas.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189

    All of those are good policies individually.

    But the problem is that the Government is still massively increasing taxes by fiscal drag.

    Giving small tax cuts funded by much bigger tax rises, isn't anything to be proud of.

    Still, for the longer term rebalancing of the economy and taxes, I would be OK with another five years of fiscal drag if the next five years saw a further 2% per year cut in National Insurance - though Employers National Insurance needs dealing with too.

    Hunt has done a good job as Chancellor, just as he did a good job at Health. Even the fiscal drag has been explained away by the cost of Covid and Ukraine. I find it curious that those who make the loudest noise about the need for the State to intervene and help people are also those who are loudest to complain when the bill comes around.

    There are still far too many people in this country who have yet to work out that the government doesn't have any money of its own. It has our money and it should be a damn sight more careful about how it spends it.
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    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,202
    DavidL said:

    And of course if the Tories continue to gain 4 percentage points a week they will have a healthy lead by then.

    I think Sunak will be reluctant to hang on to the bitter end like Brown and Major.

    I mean the 4% rise is nonsense, and the way we treat these ratings as absolute is statistically laughable. The poll of polls suggests the Tories are on 23-24% at the moment, and when someone polls them on 27% a couple of times I’ll consider they may have upticked a % point or two.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    And of course if the Tories continue to gain 4 percentage points a week they will have a healthy lead by then.

    I think Sunak will be reluctant to hang on to the bitter end like Brown and Major.

    Tory lead of 20% by Christmas?

    We have a true believer!
    LOL

    I am just trying to get in the mindset of those who produced projections during Covid @Foxy!
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,279
    edited November 2023
    On Thursday I was in Old Compton Street Cafe Nero and people were reading and copies were lying around of the Standard with the front page describing Hunt's tax cuts.

    It is clear we are at the beginning of an election campaign.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,875
    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189

    DavidL said:

    And of course if the Tories continue to gain 4 percentage points a week they will have a healthy lead by then.

    I think Sunak will be reluctant to hang on to the bitter end like Brown and Major.

    I mean the 4% rise is nonsense, and the way we treat these ratings as absolute is statistically laughable. The poll of polls suggests the Tories are on 23-24% at the moment, and when someone polls them on 27% a couple of times I’ll consider they may have upticked a % point or two.
    For the avoidance of doubt it was a joke. And where would this site be without the excitement of statistical noise?
  • Options
    MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,202
    DavidL said:

    All of those are good policies individually.

    But the problem is that the Government is still massively increasing taxes by fiscal drag.

    Giving small tax cuts funded by much bigger tax rises, isn't anything to be proud of.

    Still, for the longer term rebalancing of the economy and taxes, I would be OK with another five years of fiscal drag if the next five years saw a further 2% per year cut in National Insurance - though Employers National Insurance needs dealing with too.

    Hunt has done a good job as Chancellor, just as he did a good job at Health. Even the fiscal drag has been explained away by the cost of Covid and Ukraine. I find it curious that those who make the loudest noise about the need for the State to intervene and help people are also those who are loudest to complain when the bill comes around.

    There are still far too many people in this country who have yet to work out that the government doesn't have any money of its own. It has our money and it should be a damn sight more careful about how it spends it.
    Your last para is not correct. As quantitative easing amply demonstrated. The national account is not like a household budget. Money can be and is created and cancelled by the Central Bank. The challenge is to do so in a way that confidence is maintained.

  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,406
    edited November 2023
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    And of course if the Tories continue to gain 4 percentage points a week they will have a healthy lead by then.

    I think Sunak will be reluctant to hang on to the bitter end like Brown and Major.

    Tory lead of 20% by Christmas?

    We have a true believer!
    LOL

    I am just trying to get in the mindset of those who produced projections during Covid @Foxy!
    In that case, either:

    a) next week's increase will be 8 percent, then 16...

    or

    b) we will all be immune to Conservatism by teatime, if not already.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189

    DavidL said:

    All of those are good policies individually.

    But the problem is that the Government is still massively increasing taxes by fiscal drag.

    Giving small tax cuts funded by much bigger tax rises, isn't anything to be proud of.

    Still, for the longer term rebalancing of the economy and taxes, I would be OK with another five years of fiscal drag if the next five years saw a further 2% per year cut in National Insurance - though Employers National Insurance needs dealing with too.

    Hunt has done a good job as Chancellor, just as he did a good job at Health. Even the fiscal drag has been explained away by the cost of Covid and Ukraine. I find it curious that those who make the loudest noise about the need for the State to intervene and help people are also those who are loudest to complain when the bill comes around.

    There are still far too many people in this country who have yet to work out that the government doesn't have any money of its own. It has our money and it should be a damn sight more careful about how it spends it.
    Your last para is not correct. As quantitative easing amply demonstrated. The national account is not like a household budget. Money can be and is created and cancelled by the Central Bank. The challenge is to do so in a way that confidence is maintained.

    I think that is a short termist view. Money created by QE will eventually disappear through inflation or currency depreciation (which leads to inflation). It is another form of stealth tax ultimately. The correct model for government is that of a household with a couple of credit cards.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I don’t disagree. Immigration is a disaster zone for the Tories

    I am making a different point. The scale of migration - legal and illegal - into Europe - is now surging towards crisis levels. And politics is reflecting that (Meloni, Wilders, Eastern Europe)

    That may redound to the benefit of Tories if some calamity hits. Who knows. This is all unprecedented

    As that chart shows
  • Options
    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,960
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    Agree. Brexit has also, I suspect, reduced the flow of older people (especially) to the warmer Algarve, Canaries and Costas!
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
  • Options

    It is interesting that alcohol got the lowest approval rate. We've moved a long way from a pub on every street corner.

    I was thinking exactly the same thing. I remember in days gone by when cutting or freezing alcohol duty was one of the centrepieces of a budget statement. A sure fire way to get a cheer.
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    TimSTimS Posts: 9,553
    Now close to 10 polls in a row with Lib Dems over 10%, and a number at 12+ including one at 14%. I’d love to know where those votes are being added. Doubtful they’re in the red wall.

    Spring and early summer is when voters think more about nature and the environment (that’s my rock solid empirically proven statement of fact / groundless supposition that sounds about right). That could help Lib Dems in the raw sewage belt if there’s a spring election.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    Scott_xP said:


    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit

    It is notable how, by design or accident, the tories have managed to get the anti-immigration ire focused on the Channel boats rather than the massive inward movements that are totally within the ambit of their control and enabled by them.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    A 25% voteshare, 5% below the 1997 total, is not a springboard for a May general election.

    Sunak will want more time to narrow the gap and even if he doesn't is unlikely to want to cut 6 months from his premiership unnecessarily
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,553
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I don’t disagree. Immigration is a disaster zone for the Tories

    I am making a different point. The scale of migration - legal and illegal - into Europe - is now surging towards crisis levels. And politics is reflecting that (Meloni, Wilders, Eastern Europe)

    That may redound to the benefit of Tories if some calamity hits. Who knows. This is all unprecedented

    As that chart shows
    It depends whether the equation is surge in immigration = support for right wing party, or surge in immigration = punishing of incumbent party. In a FPTP system the votes will generally go to one or other of the 2 big parties come election time.

    I imagine in Britain surge immigration might = surge in abstention, or wasted RefUK votes.

  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,772
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:


    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit

    It is notable how, by design or accident, the tories have managed to get the anti-immigration ire focused on the Channel boats rather than the massive inward movements that are totally within the ambit of their control and enabled by them.
    Some of the media are complicit by design or just poor editing . Sky News headlined the immigration statistics with a video of a small boat.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,466
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    As the three countries of origin which dominate the list for the most recent figures are India, Nigeria and China, it does not.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    All of those are good policies individually.

    But the problem is that the Government is still massively increasing taxes by fiscal drag.

    Giving small tax cuts funded by much bigger tax rises, isn't anything to be proud of.

    Still, for the longer term rebalancing of the economy and taxes, I would be OK with another five years of fiscal drag if the next five years saw a further 2% per year cut in National Insurance - though Employers National Insurance needs dealing with too.

    Hunt has done a good job as Chancellor, just as he did a good job at Health. Even the fiscal drag has been explained away by the cost of Covid and Ukraine. I find it curious that those who make the loudest noise about the need for the State to intervene and help people are also those who are loudest to complain when the bill comes around.

    There are still far too many people in this country who have yet to work out that the government doesn't have any money of its own. It has our money and it should be a damn sight more careful about how it spends it.
    My complaint is that we are spending so much on so little. The NHS receives record amounts of cash whilst services on the front line are cut to danger point. The problem with Tory Britain isn't the amount spent, it is *how* it is spent.

    The right always complain about unions and paymasters when Labour are in government. But say nothing about the spivocracy bottom feeders they are beholden to when they are in government.
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:


    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit

    It is notable how, by design or accident, the tories have managed to get the anti-immigration ire focused on the Channel boats rather than the massive inward movements that are totally within the ambit of their control and enabled by them.
    I have absolutely no doubt that that is deliberate.

    The biggest driver by far of immigration are foreign students who in aggregate are keeping our Universities and colleges afloat. The government is reluctant to talk about that although it is one of our few successful growth export industries of recent years. The next biggest is family members of those who are already here. Awkward to deny that, creates lots of unsympathetic headlines.

    And now we have the skills or labour shortage exemptions which don't say much good about the way our economy has been run in recent decades either. So let's talk about the boats, it was supposed to be easier until the Supreme Court took away the pretence.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    Hence the government is raising the threshold of salary to £30k for skilled migrants who want to come to the UK
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,316
    A
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
  • Options
    nico679nico679 Posts: 4,772
    Leon said:

    OldBasing said:

    There's two things a May election has going for it really for the Government. One is avoiding a total bloodbath in the local council elections. You save some councillors and ground troops from higher overall turnout. Secondly, whilst something might turn up, a May election happens before things get even worse for them e.g. more people re-mortgaging at higher rates, more people falling off gas and electric fixes, possible recession etc.

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance
    Not sure that works . They are responsible for immigration so will carry the can .
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,561

    All of those are good policies individually.

    But the problem is that the Government is still massively increasing taxes by fiscal drag.

    Giving small tax cuts funded by much bigger tax rises, isn't anything to be proud of.

    Still, for the longer term rebalancing of the economy and taxes, I would be OK with another five years of fiscal drag if the next five years saw a further 2% per year cut in National Insurance - though Employers National Insurance needs dealing with too.

    Yes it's much better to have more people paying tax at a low rate rather than fewer at a higher rate. You reduce the number of freeloaders, give more people an incentive to want to cut the rate. and minimise the volatility of receipts.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    A 25% voteshare, 5% below the 1997 total, is not a springboard for a May general election.

    Sunak will want more time to narrow the gap and even if he doesn't is unlikely to want to cut 6 months from his premiership unnecessarily

    Until the Autumn Statement I would have agreed with you. But the starting gun has been fired, and we're hearing that the ScotCon election machine is already being resourced.

    The cat is out of the bag, and you can expect the media now to push a May election as the plan. Should Rishi turn frit again and bottle it, you won't get a better result in the autumn, it will be worse.

    The lesson from so many past elections is that an early election is almost always better than a late election...
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    No, it wasn’t

    Maybe 8,000 people into a country of 2.5 million? And also it was spread over many years

    So, nowhere near 1%
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,121
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    Hence the government is raising the threshold of salary to £30k for skilled migrants who want to come to the UK
    You do read everything CCHQ pass by you at face value. Boris Johnson missed a trick not selling you that Garden Bridge.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    We should be careful not to compare them with modern day social carers and students, however. Slightly different motivations...
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,980
    OldBasing said:

    There's two things a May election has going for it really for the Government. One is avoiding a total bloodbath in the local council elections. You save some councillors and ground troops from higher overall turnout. Secondly, whilst something might turn up, a May election happens before things get even worse for them e.g. more people re-mortgaging at higher rates, more people falling off gas and electric fixes, possible recession etc.

    In theory but not guaranteed, opposition turnout would also be up on the usual local elections and because the Tories won the 2021 local elections comfortably (their last good locals) and it is those seats up again in May Tory councillors will lose seats whether a general election is held or not in May unless the Tory poll rating improves significantly
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    nico679 said:

    Leon said:

    OldBasing said:

    There's two things a May election has going for it really for the Government. One is avoiding a total bloodbath in the local council elections. You save some councillors and ground troops from higher overall turnout. Secondly, whilst something might turn up, a May election happens before things get even worse for them e.g. more people re-mortgaging at higher rates, more people falling off gas and electric fixes, possible recession etc.

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance
    Not sure that works . They are responsible for immigration so will carry the can .
    Yes maybe. Completely possible. As I say I’m just trying to get into the minds of the Tory leadership - facing certain defeat, possibly catastrophic - they may see the chaos and volatility all around Europe - much of it migrant related, but other stuff too - and think: if we cling on some huge disaster might save us
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    I remember doing some research on this. The Huguenots were quite large, as was the Windward generation. Meaningful statistics are not available for the Viking or Angels/Jutes invasions but they were presumably significant. But I don't think we have ever seen anything like this.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,906
    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:


    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit

    It is notable how, by design or accident, the tories have managed to get the anti-immigration ire focused on the Channel boats rather than the massive inward movements that are totally within the ambit of their control and enabled by them.
    I have absolutely no doubt that that is deliberate.

    The biggest driver by far of immigration are foreign students who in aggregate are keeping our Universities and colleges afloat. The government is reluctant to talk about that although it is one of our few successful growth export industries of recent years. The next biggest is family members of those who are already here. Awkward to deny that, creates lots of unsympathetic headlines.

    And now we have the skills or labour shortage exemptions which don't say much good about the way our economy has been run in recent decades either. So let's talk about the boats, it was supposed to be easier until the Supreme Court took away the pretence.
    How long are these students staying in University - if it truly is student migration then shouldn't there be broadly equal emigration and thus a net zero effect over time ?

    Either i) Our universities are growing and growing and growing and growing with ever more students in each year OR
    ii) "Students" are staying forever - so in fact they're not really student immigrants for the stats if they spend 4 years studying and then 40 years working here
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    As the three countries of origin which dominate the list for the most recent figures are India, Nigeria and China, it does not.
    But the millions of east Europeans that came here during freedom of movement has slowed markedly creating demand for other sources.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:


    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit

    It is notable how, by design or accident, the tories have managed to get the anti-immigration ire focused on the Channel boats rather than the massive inward movements that are totally within the ambit of their control and enabled by them.
    I have absolutely no doubt that that is deliberate.

    The biggest driver by far of immigration are foreign students who in aggregate are keeping our Universities and colleges afloat. The government is reluctant to talk about that although it is one of our few successful growth export industries of recent years. The next biggest is family members of those who are already here. Awkward to deny that, creates lots of unsympathetic headlines.

    And now we have the skills or labour shortage exemptions which don't say much good about the way our economy has been run in recent decades either. So let's talk about the boats, it was supposed to be easier until the Supreme Court took away the pretence.
    How long are these students staying in University - if it truly is student migration then shouldn't there be broadly equal emigration and thus a net zero effect over time ?

    Either i) Our universities are growing and growing and growing and growing with ever more students in each year OR
    ii) "Students" are staying forever - so in fact they're not really student immigrants for the stats if they spend 4 years studying and then 40 years working here
    Or a post-COVID effect, with those who would have departed in 2023 not turning up in the the first place.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,906
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    Unless Nigeria, India and Pakistan were in the EU, errm... no.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,466
    edited November 2023

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    Sounds realistic. 2% would be around 50K, which would be a fairly conservative estimate for what you suggest.

    Might have been more, if the leader of the opposition had been Hereward the Woke rather than Wake.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886
    Nigel, in the jungle: "Nearly as bad as the Norman Invasion. And look what they did to the north!".

    The odds tighten.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,308
    edited November 2023
    Cop28 starts a week from now. Will Rishi be greenwashing himself there?
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,189
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:


    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit

    It is notable how, by design or accident, the tories have managed to get the anti-immigration ire focused on the Channel boats rather than the massive inward movements that are totally within the ambit of their control and enabled by them.
    I have absolutely no doubt that that is deliberate.

    The biggest driver by far of immigration are foreign students who in aggregate are keeping our Universities and colleges afloat. The government is reluctant to talk about that although it is one of our few successful growth export industries of recent years. The next biggest is family members of those who are already here. Awkward to deny that, creates lots of unsympathetic headlines.

    And now we have the skills or labour shortage exemptions which don't say much good about the way our economy has been run in recent decades either. So let's talk about the boats, it was supposed to be easier until the Supreme Court took away the pretence.
    How long are these students staying in University - if it truly is student migration then shouldn't there be broadly equal emigration and thus a net zero effect over time ?

    Either i) Our universities are growing and growing and growing and growing with ever more students in each year OR
    ii) "Students" are staying forever - so in fact they're not really student immigrants for the stats if they spend 4 years studying and then 40 years working here
    Quite a lot of these students end up staying here. And we should welcome that because that there are many more who are skilled, capable and entrepreneurial than those whose course was a pretence which allowed them to work full time in the local carry out shop. This is a significant net gain to the country. And at the moment the figures are distorted by those who either didn't come or whose studies were disrupted by Covid.
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    I remember doing some research on this. The Huguenots were quite large, as was the Windward generation. Meaningful statistics are not available for the Viking or Angels/Jutes invasions but they were presumably significant. But I don't think we have ever seen anything like this.
    The worst was when the bloody Saxons came over. The place has been going to the dogs ever since.
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,585
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:


    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit

    It is notable how, by design or accident, the tories have managed to get the anti-immigration ire focused on the Channel boats rather than the massive inward movements that are totally within the ambit of their control and enabled by them.
    I have absolutely no doubt that that is deliberate.

    The biggest driver by far of immigration are foreign students who in aggregate are keeping our Universities and colleges afloat. The government is reluctant to talk about that although it is one of our few successful growth export industries of recent years. The next biggest is family members of those who are already here. Awkward to deny that, creates lots of unsympathetic headlines.

    And now we have the skills or labour shortage exemptions which don't say much good about the way our economy has been run in recent decades either. So let's talk about the boats, it was supposed to be easier until the Supreme Court took away the pretence.
    How long are these students staying in University - if it truly is student migration then shouldn't there be broadly equal emigration and thus a net zero effect over time ?

    Either i) Our universities are growing and growing and growing and growing with ever more students in each year OR
    ii) "Students" are staying forever - so in fact they're not really student immigrants for the stats if they spend 4 years studying and then 40 years working here
    It’s partly a COVID effect (students weren’t coming over much during peak pandemic) and it’s partly (i). Universities lose money on doing research (official government policy is to pay 80% of the cost of research). Home fees for undergraduates are capped and there’s been a lot of inflation, so losing money there probably. Universities are short of money and the main solution to this is to increase overseas student numbers. My department (in a Russell Group uni) has been told to double numbers by our Faculty.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,316
    a
    Eabhal said:

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    We should be careful not to compare them with modern day social carers and students, however. Slightly different motivations...
    Why? Are you some kind of anti-Normaan bigot? We are talking about a minority group, led by an individual with non-conventional parentage, overthrowing the existing patriarchal, sexist, racist tyranny. And enriching the cultural diversity of the country while they were at it.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,842

    The best motorway services is Leeds Skelton Lake and that is the end of the discussion.

    Has to be Tebay , for the pies and lovely scenery.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,906
    @DavidL @bondegezou Thanks

    Quite a lot of these students end up staying here.

    The idea then that they somehow shouldn't be counted as some suggest strikes me as absurd
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,936
    edited November 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    These might be terrible numbers for the Tory party internal squabbles but they are good for the UK. And as an aside they include 238,000 Ukrainians and 52,000 people from Hong Kong.

    What is interesting - though I have no idea of reasons or implications - is the big drop in the numbers of Britons leaving the UK in the last 20 odd years.

    In 2006 207,000 Britons emigrated. In 2022 it was just 92,000. The big drop appears to be following the 2008 GFC and numbers have never recoverd since then.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993

    a

    Eabhal said:

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    We should be careful not to compare them with modern day social carers and students, however. Slightly different motivations...
    Why? Are you some kind of anti-Normaan bigot? We are talking about a minority group, led by an individual with non-conventional parentage, overthrowing the existing patriarchal, sexist, racist tyranny. And enriching the cultural diversity of the country while they were at it.
    Also they rewilded the north, allowing more room for native species - wolves, bears, beavers. The Normans were early environmentalists
  • Options
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    As the three countries of origin which dominate the list for the most recent figures are India, Nigeria and China, it does not.
    But the millions of east Europeans that came here during freedom of movement has slowed markedly creating demand for other sources.
    There is only one reliable way of cutting immigration, and that is to raise the retirement age. An ever increasing number of non-working pensioners with high disposable incomes demanding labour intensive services creates an insatiable demand for working age labour. High immigration and high numbers of pensioners are two sides of the same coin.
  • Options
    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,697
    edited November 2023

    ...The lesson from so many past elections is that an early election is almost always better than a late election...

    Um, you have the effect preceding the cause. Elections are more likely to be called early if the Government believes it will win.

    (PS are you all excited for Cybertruck Day? Only six sleeps to go... 😃 )
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886
    edited November 2023
    malcolmg said:

    The best motorway services is Leeds Skelton Lake and that is the end of the discussion.

    Has to be Tebay , for the pies and lovely scenery.
    Sometimes I can't quite make it to Tebay and end up at Moto Lancaster *shudders*
  • Options
    Pulpstar said:

    @DavidL @bondegezou Thanks

    Quite a lot of these students end up staying here.

    The idea then that they somehow shouldn't be counted as some suggest strikes me as absurd

    There are opportunities to work here after studying, that's part of the attraction.
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    As the three countries of origin which dominate the list for the most recent figures are India, Nigeria and China, it does not.
    But the millions of east Europeans that came here during freedom of movement has slowed markedly creating demand for other sources.
    There is only one reliable way of cutting immigration, and that is to raise the retirement age. An ever increasing number of non-working pensioners with high disposable incomes demanding labour intensive services creates an insatiable demand for working age labour. High immigration and high numbers of pensioners are two sides of the same coin.
    Tax wealth not work.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,466
    S Korea is becoming a serious arms exporter.
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=363857

    Their shipbuilding in particular will be highly competitive with other western offerings.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    As the three countries of origin which dominate the list for the most recent figures are India, Nigeria and China, it does not.
    But the millions of east Europeans that came here during freedom of movement has slowed markedly creating demand for other sources.
    There is only one reliable way of cutting immigration, and that is to raise the retirement age. An ever increasing number of non-working pensioners with high disposable incomes demanding labour intensive services creates an insatiable demand for working age labour. High immigration and high numbers of pensioners are two sides of the same coin.
    TBF a lot of the labour intensive services are for people who *can't* work.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,842
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    As the three countries of origin which dominate the list for the most recent figures are India, Nigeria and China, it does not.
    But the millions of east Europeans that came here during freedom of movement has slowed markedly creating demand for other sources.
    They know soft marks when they see them David, not so long ago it was 20K, something far far wrong with system. Blair started it and the Tories have accelerated it, anybody and their dog can just arrive here and never need to leave. Big changes needed on our local wasters who get more money for lying in their scratchers than they do working and then the clowns running teh country should implement a real immigration system , maybe similar to what normal countries do. At least then you would know why people are here, mainly doing the jobs that lazy local barstewards will not do as benefits pay better, and not pander to the morons who blame their sloth and uselessness on "them foreignerrs".
  • Options
    theProletheProle Posts: 948
    Eabhal said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:


    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit

    It is notable how, by design or accident, the tories have managed to get the anti-immigration ire focused on the Channel boats rather than the massive inward movements that are totally within the ambit of their control and enabled by them.
    I have absolutely no doubt that that is deliberate.

    The biggest driver by far of immigration are foreign students who in aggregate are keeping our Universities and colleges afloat. The government is reluctant to talk about that although it is one of our few successful growth export industries of recent years. The next biggest is family members of those who are already here. Awkward to deny that, creates lots of unsympathetic headlines.

    And now we have the skills or labour shortage exemptions which don't say much good about the way our economy has been run in recent decades either. So let's talk about the boats, it was supposed to be easier until the Supreme Court took away the pretence.
    How long are these students staying in University - if it truly is student migration then shouldn't there be broadly equal emigration and thus a net zero effect over time ?

    Either i) Our universities are growing and growing and growing and growing with ever more students in each year OR
    ii) "Students" are staying forever - so in fact they're not really student immigrants for the stats if they spend 4 years studying and then 40 years working here
    Or a post-COVID effect, with those who would have departed in 2023 not turning up in the the first place.
    The flaw in this line of argument is that if all the students went home and weren't replaced we should have probably seen net emigration during the pandemic. (Spolier - we didn't).
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    Nigelb said:

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    Sounds realistic. 2% would be around 50K, which would be a fairly conservative estimate for what you suggest.

    Might have been more, if the leader of the opposition had been Hereward the Woke rather than Wake.
    But that’s an absurd comparison. If it ever reached 50k - which I doubt - but let’s go with it for the sake of debate - then it was spread over decades, as the Normans consolidated power and it became safe for families and wives and children to ship over

    Say 30 years from 1066 to 1096

    The UK has just imported 1.3 million people - nearly 2% of the population - in 24 MONTHS
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    As the three countries of origin which dominate the list for the most recent figures are India, Nigeria and China, it does not.
    But the millions of east Europeans that came here during freedom of movement has slowed markedly creating demand for other sources.
    They know soft marks when they see them David, not so long ago it was 20K, something far far wrong with system. Blair started it and the Tories have accelerated it, anybody and their dog can just arrive here and never need to leave. Big changes needed on our local wasters who get more money for lying in their scratchers than they do working and then the clowns running teh country should implement a real immigration system , maybe similar to what normal countries do. At least then you would know why people are here, mainly doing the jobs that lazy local barstewards will not do as benefits pay better, and not pander to the morons who blame their sloth and uselessness on "them foreignerrs".
    That's a dreadful way to talk about early retirees.
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    I remember doing some research on this. The Huguenots were quite large, as was the Windward generation. Meaningful statistics are not available for the Viking or Angels/Jutes invasions but they were presumably significant. But I don't think we have ever seen anything like this.
    The worst was when the bloody Saxons came over. The place has been going to the dogs ever since.
    Be interesting to see what the % figures were for 1914 when 250,000 Belgians turned up in just a few months. I suppose it depends on whther we count all those British troops going the other way as emigrating :)
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    Hence the government is raising the threshold of salary to £30k for skilled migrants who want to come to the UK
    And creating exceptions for its supporters who want dirt cheap labour. Such as farmers.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    Hence the government is raising the threshold of salary to £30k for skilled migrants who want to come to the UK
    You don't get many 'skilled' workers for £30k currently.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635

    DavidL said:

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    I remember doing some research on this. The Huguenots were quite large, as was the Windward generation. Meaningful statistics are not available for the Viking or Angels/Jutes invasions but they were presumably significant. But I don't think we have ever seen anything like this.
    The worst was when the bloody Saxons came over. The place has been going to the dogs ever since.
    Be interesting to see what the % figures were for 1914 when 250,000 Belgians turned up in just a few months. I suppose it depends on whther we count all those British troops going the other way as emigrating :)
    Some did, permanently (by government policy in both senses).
  • Options
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    I remember doing some research on this. The Huguenots were quite large, as was the Windward generation. Meaningful statistics are not available for the Viking or Angels/Jutes invasions but they were presumably significant. But I don't think we have ever seen anything like this.
    The worst was when the bloody Saxons came over. The place has been going to the dogs ever since.
    Be interesting to see what the % figures were for 1914 when 250,000 Belgians turned up in just a few months. I suppose it depends on whther we count all those British troops going the other way as emigrating :)
    Some did, permanently (by government policy in both senses).
    Sadly yes. :(
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    I remember doing some research on this. The Huguenots were quite large, as was the Windward generation. Meaningful statistics are not available for the Viking or Angels/Jutes invasions but they were presumably significant. But I don't think we have ever seen anything like this.
    The worst was when the bloody Saxons came over. The place has been going to the dogs ever since.
    Be interesting to see what the % figures were for 1914 when 250,000 Belgians turned up in just a few months. I suppose it depends on whther we count all those British troops going the other way as emigrating :)
    A lot was permanent emigration too, sadly.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635
    edited November 2023

    DavidL said:

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    I remember doing some research on this. The Huguenots were quite large, as was the Windward generation. Meaningful statistics are not available for the Viking or Angels/Jutes invasions but they were presumably significant. But I don't think we have ever seen anything like this.
    The worst was when the bloody Saxons came over. The place has been going to the dogs ever since.
    Be interesting to see what the % figures were for 1914 when 250,000 Belgians turned up in just a few months. I suppose it depends on whther we count all those British troops going the other way as emigrating :)
    An intderesting blog now you raise the point. Seems as if they were incorporated into special factories - often war emergency -and schools. No expectation on either side, I suppose, that most would be staying in the long term. Even if the war took longer than anyone expected.

    https://blogs.kent.ac.uk/rtwbelgians/belgian-refugees-in-britain-a-short-summary/
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    All of those are good policies individually.

    But the problem is that the Government is still massively increasing taxes by fiscal drag.

    Giving small tax cuts funded by much bigger tax rises, isn't anything to be proud of.

    Still, for the longer term rebalancing of the economy and taxes, I would be OK with another five years of fiscal drag if the next five years saw a further 2% per year cut in National Insurance - though Employers National Insurance needs dealing with too.

    Yes, agree with this. Using fiscal drag to reduce NI is a good policy as it shifts the burden of tax from working people to non-working people. I'd like to see another 2% cut in NI next autumn and to continue until Employees NI is abolished. The fact that income from work attracts a higher rate of tax than income from idleness shows just how awful the nations priorities have been for the past 50 years. This move only addresses a small portion of it.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,279
    edited November 2023
    What on earth was PB doing not observing a posting pause while Ben Ansell was talking at 8.45am on R4 about our electoral system. He gives FPTP a proper shellacking.

    Everyone should spend three hours on ConHome for such disrespectful behaviour.
  • Options

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    As the three countries of origin which dominate the list for the most recent figures are India, Nigeria and China, it does not.
    But the millions of east Europeans that came here during freedom of movement has slowed markedly creating demand for other sources.
    There is only one reliable way of cutting immigration, and that is to raise the retirement age. An ever increasing number of non-working pensioners with high disposable incomes demanding labour intensive services creates an insatiable demand for working age labour. High immigration and high numbers of pensioners are two sides of the same coin.
    Alternatively you could increase taxation on things affluent oldies spend their money on = cruises and carveries for example.

    Banning the age discrimination where oldies get things cheaper than younger people is another idea.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    A

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I wonder if the Norman invasion was over 1%?
    I've heard 1-5% of the then population, over a period of years - the initial invasion was 10K or so, but then families and retainers were brought over.
    I remember doing some research on this. The Huguenots were quite large, as was the Windward generation. Meaningful statistics are not available for the Viking or Angels/Jutes invasions but they were presumably significant. But I don't think we have ever seen anything like this.
    The worst was when the bloody Saxons came over. The place has been going to the dogs ever since.
    Be interesting to see what the % figures were for 1914 when 250,000 Belgians turned up in just a few months. I suppose it depends on whther we count all those British troops going the other way as emigrating :)
    Some did, permanently (by government policy in both senses).
    Sadly yes. :(
    Quite. Very early on in the war, they decided not to bring the bodies home but leave them in theatre. I don't recall if this was for logistic or political reasons or simply because they couldn't provide identified bodies in rather too many instances, with the obvious morale effect.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,993
    We really should be talking about Dublin

    I think that’s the biggest anti migrant race riot Europe has seen in many decades. And it was in Ireland, of all places
  • Options
    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 12,983
    Nigelb said:

    S Korea is becoming a serious arms exporter.
    https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=363857

    Their shipbuilding in particular will be highly competitive with other western offerings.

    All of the RFA's Tide class tankers were built in South Korea. They went from order to being in service in about 5 years. Very impressive, but it would be politically impossible to have them built outside the UK now - see the Fleet Solid Support fiasco which has now been going on for 8 years without any steel being cut.
  • Options
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    As the three countries of origin which dominate the list for the most recent figures are India, Nigeria and China, it does not.
    But the millions of east Europeans that came here during freedom of movement has slowed markedly creating demand for other sources.
    There is only one reliable way of cutting immigration, and that is to raise the retirement age. An ever increasing number of non-working pensioners with high disposable incomes demanding labour intensive services creates an insatiable demand for working age labour. High immigration and high numbers of pensioners are two sides of the same coin.
    Tax wealth not work.
    Part of the solution, but in the next 20 years we are going to see the number of over 65s rise from 13mn to 18mn. Immigration is only going one way. There really are only two solutions - immigration or more over 65s working. If you have an ever increasing % of your population out of the labour force, you are going to create ever stronger pressure on the labour force to grow from some other source. It's not rocket science.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,504

    It is interesting that alcohol got the lowest approval rate. We've moved a long way from a pub on every street corner.

    Pubs, alcohol and cultural drinking are like football. There is an assumption that it is part of a universal way of UK life. It isn't. 37% of people go to pubs at least fortnightly. Nearly two thirds don't. Same with football. Most people never or almost never watch it.

    Also, drinking at home is now a relatively inexpensive thing, especially when compared with either pubs or smoking.

    (ONS says 20 king size filter are now £15. Can this be true?)
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,844
    Haaretz

    Israel could have had a hostage deal nearly one month ago, but chose a ground invasion instead. It then rejected the same Qatari-brokered deal last week.

    What changed now? According to Amos Harel of Haaretz, the Israeli “security establishment” has developed the “understanding that the outcry of the hostages’ families is arousing broad public support, and that it will be difficult to continue with a ground maneuver in the southern Gaza Strip should public anger over what will be perceived as abandoning women and children increase.”
  • Options
    EabhalEabhal Posts: 5,886
    edited November 2023

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    As the three countries of origin which dominate the list for the most recent figures are India, Nigeria and China, it does not.
    But the millions of east Europeans that came here during freedom of movement has slowed markedly creating demand for other sources.
    There is only one reliable way of cutting immigration, and that is to raise the retirement age. An ever increasing number of non-working pensioners with high disposable incomes demanding labour intensive services creates an insatiable demand for working age labour. High immigration and high numbers of pensioners are two sides of the same coin.
    Alternatively you could increase taxation on things affluent oldies spend their money on = cruises and carveries for example.

    Banning the age discrimination where oldies get things cheaper than younger people is another idea.
    How about you must do 2 years work in social care after you turn 50 to qualify for the state pension (replacing the NICs nonsense).

    Call it "National Service" to confuse everyone.
  • Options
    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 39,635
    edited November 2023

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    On the other hand: events, dear boy

    Looking at the violence in Dublin last night, and the “election” of Wilders, it’s hard not to think Europe is heading for some major crisis centred on migration and culture wars and terror and all that jazz

    It’s very cynical, but the Tories might calculate that the longer they wait the greater the chance some catastrophic black swan will break the arm of history - and give them a fighting chance

    Yes, the Tories should run an election on their record on immigration...

    @EdConwaySky
    Hard to put into words just how enormous the recent flows of migration into UK are, so this chart 👇 is prob a better place to start.
    This country has NEVER seen net migration as high as this.
    Look at the population-adjusted figures going back to 1850.
    It’s totally unprecedented.




    @PickardJE
    it is objectively quite funny that the biggest surge in immigration in British history came *after* Brexit
    I am not desperate to go down this road once again but does it ever cross your mind that with freedom of movement we simply had no idea how many people were coming here, not even to the nearest million, and what we are now seeing is the underlying picture being exposed with slightly better statistics?
    As the three countries of origin which dominate the list for the most recent figures are India, Nigeria and China, it does not.
    But the millions of east Europeans that came here during freedom of movement has slowed markedly creating demand for other sources.
    There is only one reliable way of cutting immigration, and that is to raise the retirement age. An ever increasing number of non-working pensioners with high disposable incomes demanding labour intensive services creates an insatiable demand for working age labour. High immigration and high numbers of pensioners are two sides of the same coin.
    Alternatively you could increase taxation on things affluent oldies spend their money on = cruises and carveries for example.

    Banning the age discrimination where oldies get things cheaper than younger people is another idea.
    The latter is a commercial strategy to spread demand to quiet periods, and indeed encourage it to at least absorb overheads from people who wouldn't otherwise buy. Not for charitable purposes on the part of the provider.
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