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The king over the water for the Tories? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited November 2023 in General
The king over the water for the Tories? – politicalbetting.com

Do you think Nigel Farage would make a good or a bad leader of the Conservative Party?Very good leader: 8% (Con 2019 voter 18%)Fairly good leader: 13% (Con 23%)Fairly bad leader: 12% (Con 14%)Very bad leader: 45% (Con 27%)https://t.co/zCTLptqUkk pic.twitter.com/foXY7VdAa7

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Test to see if the comments work.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    First, they do!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    This doesn't look good for those that earn a living writing for the Flint Knappers Gazette

    An ingenious study by @xianghui90 @oren_reshef @Zhou_Yu_AI looked at what happened on a huge online freelancing platform after ChatGPT launched last year.

    The answer? Freelancers got fewer jobs, and earned much less.

    https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1722938749519077688?s=20
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    On topic. There has to be a non-trivial chance that the Tories will unravel and split irreparably if Farage or Braverman become leader, surely?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    MarqueeMark said:

    Farage can fuck right off.

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2023/10/03/this-sums-up-the-current-tory-party/
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,422
    Do we read anything into Priti Patel and Nigel Farage dancing at the same event or was it just a coincidence? It is hard to see the mechanism by which Farage himself becomes eligible but he might still be kingmaker.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Next Tory leader will be Truss. Farage maybe after that when she moves on to bigger and better things.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    On topic, I too like the Isle of Wight flag

    Nice one @IanB2
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004
    edited November 2023
    Err, QTWTAIN. The only people who want to see Farage in the Tories, are those who don’t wish to see the Tories form the government.

    Also ignore that he’ll never be a Tory MP.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    On topic, I too like the Isle of Wight flag

    Nice one @IanB2

    On topic, just not this topic.

    (Or indeed any past topic.)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    This proposed flag for the Irish Republic - from the Irish times in 1945 - seems brilliantly designed to arouse the suspicions of Loyalist eurosceptics, long before the EU even existed


  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    And what does Suella Braverman do to those arriving from "over the water"? She sends them to Rwanda. Happy holidays, Nige.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,904
    DougSeal said:

    Next Tory leader will be Truss. Farage maybe after that when she moves on to bigger and better things.

    Truss will never (should never) work in a responsible Job again. Braverman is moving in much the same direction. Farage, much maligned, is not as bad as alleged.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    MarqueeMark said:

    Farage can fuck right off.

    I think there's room for a general cross party consensus there.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Sandpit said:

    Err, QTWTAIN. The only people who want to see Farage in the Tories, are those who don’t wish to see the Tories form the government.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former Commons leader and business secretary, told the BBC he would back the idea of Farage rejoining, calling him a “very effective campaigner” with whom he shared “most of his political views”.

    Rees-Mogg said: “I think Nigel is broadly a Tory and always has been. If he wanted to join I can’t think his membership would be refused.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/03/sunak-refuses-to-rule-out-welcoming-farage-back-into-tory-party
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Farage would be a TERRIBLE choice. On that basis you could argue the Tories will probably do it. But I think they will swerve it
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Farage's chances of being the next Tory leader are about as good as Andy Burnham's chances of being the next Labour leader.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,128
    Next leader seems implausible. He would have to be selected for the safest of safe seats as Con candidate next year.

    I just cannot see that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    Farage doesn't have any real solutions to anything, so he would never stand up to daily scrutiny required of a leading politician.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Farage doesn't have any real solutions to anything, so he would never stand up to daily scrutiny required of a leading politician.

    Yes. He is - or was - an excellent single issue campaigner. Provocative and annoying and provides good copy. That’s an entirely different skill set from parliamentary leader

    Also he’s just a bit past it. Or so I sense. He’s in semi retirement - does he want the massive hassle and work load of being an opposition leader, even if he can overcome the many obstacles before he even gets there?

    Not ever going to happen
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    It's not happening!
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,373
    Farage is appalling and also yesterday's man (if he was ever any moments one).

    The Tories need to look to the future and think how they can appeal to most people in this country in the middle, not lurch to extremes or comfort blankets of the past.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Farage doesn't have any real solutions to anything, so he would never stand up to daily scrutiny required of a leading politician.

    Yes. He is - or was - an excellent single issue campaigner. Provocative and annoying and provides good copy. That’s an entirely different skill set from parliamentary leader

    Also he’s just a bit past it. Or so I sense. He’s in semi retirement - does he want the massive hassle and work load of being an opposition leader, even if he can overcome the many obstacles before he even gets there?

    Not ever going to happen
    I always wonder what GB News pay him. I presume they make it worth his while.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,904
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Farage doesn't have any real solutions to anything, so he would never stand up to daily scrutiny required of a leading politician.

    I see no current gap.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004
    SouthamObserver said:

    Farage's chances of being the next Tory leader are about as good as Andy Burnham's chances of being the next Labour leader.

    The difference being that Andy Burnham would be a great next Labour leader.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    The next Tory leader needs to be young and hungry and absolutely spoiling for a fight - and ready to do the hard hard work of opposition

    Farage is 59

    Braverman is 43

    Just sayin’
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    The next Tory leader needs to be young and hungry and absolutely spoiling for a fight - and ready to do the hard hard work of opposition

    Farage is 59

    Braverman is 43

    Just sayin’

    Truss is 48. Has comparative youth AND experience on her side.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited November 2023
    Omnium said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Farage doesn't have any real solutions to anything, so he would never stand up to daily scrutiny required of a leading politician.

    I see no current gap.
    When the Tories get spanked at next GE, you would think that would be the wake up call that they need to find somebody who does have some solutions, or at least have the intelligence and energy to put in all the hard yards to work together having some answers. Not pick another "managed decliner" like Hunt / Sunak or a "I am going to up turn the apple cart and nobody is going to stop me" Truss.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,950
    You can read a preview of Nick Wallis's book about the Post Office scandal here.

    https://www.google.co.uk/books/edition/_/at1kEAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Err, QTWTAIN. The only people who want to see Farage in the Tories, are those who don’t wish to see the Tories form the government.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg, the former Commons leader and business secretary, told the BBC he would back the idea of Farage rejoining, calling him a “very effective campaigner” with whom he shared “most of his political views”.

    Rees-Mogg said: “I think Nigel is broadly a Tory and always has been. If he wanted to join I can’t think his membership would be refused.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/oct/03/sunak-refuses-to-rule-out-welcoming-farage-back-into-tory-party
    There’s a massive difference between being a party member, and being selected as an MP candidate in a safe seat.

    How many stories do we have about whacky councillors and activists, from all parties?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Farage is appalling and also yesterday's man (if he was ever any moments one).

    The Tories need to look to the future and think how they can appeal to most people in this country in the middle, not lurch to extremes or comfort blankets of the past.

    It’s largely thanks to Farage that we Brexited. So the idea that he was never important is fatuous. He kept winning the Euro elections and he kept piling pressure on the Tories (and stealing GE votes) until eventually Cameron caved and granted a referendum

    He will be seen as a pivotal figure by history - love him or loathe him. However he’s never going to be Tory leader, the concept is nonsense
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,373
    Unless the Tories do the right thing and oust Sunak PDQ, the next Tory Prime Minister probably isn't even an MP yet.

    Next time will probably make it three times in a row that when Downing Street has changed parties, the incoming Prime Minister was not even an MP when his party lost power.

    Keir Starmer - MP since 2015, party lost office in 2010
    David Cameron - MP since 2001, party lost office in 1997
    Tony Blair - MP since 1983, party lost office in 1979

    If the trend continues, the next Tory PM will probably be first elected to Parliament around 2028.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,904
    Sandpit said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Farage's chances of being the next Tory leader are about as good as Andy Burnham's chances of being the next Labour leader.

    The difference being that Andy Burnham would be a great next Labour leader.
    I think he'd be awful, and has shown himself to be repeatedly awful in that his friends don't like him. However people can improve. The best political example in recent years is Lammy - he's gone from a complete joke to really quite ok.

    My hunch is that Burnham has enough of the natural toe-rag about him that he'll never be PM.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004
    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Omnium said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Farage doesn't have any real solutions to anything, so he would never stand up to daily scrutiny required of a leading politician.

    I see no current gap.
    When the Tories get spanked at next GE, you would think that would be the wake up call that they need to find somebody who does have some solutions, or at least have the intelligence and energy to put in all the hard yards to work together having some answers. Not pick another "managed decliner" like Hunt / Sunak or a "I am going to up turn the apple cart and nobody is going to stop me" Truss.
    They also desperately need someone not posh and not rich and not Truss
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    Omnium said:

    Sandpit said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Farage's chances of being the next Tory leader are about as good as Andy Burnham's chances of being the next Labour leader.

    The difference being that Andy Burnham would be a great next Labour leader.
    I think he'd be awful, and has shown himself to be repeatedly awful in that his friends don't like him. However people can improve. The best political example in recent years is Lammy - he's gone from a complete joke to really quite ok.

    My hunch is that Burnham has enough of the natural toe-rag about him that he'll never be PM.
    That didn't stop Johnson.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Omnium said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Farage doesn't have any real solutions to anything, so he would never stand up to daily scrutiny required of a leading politician.

    I see no current gap.
    When the Tories get spanked at next GE, you would think that would be the wake up call that they need to find somebody who does have some solutions, or at least have the intelligence and energy to put in all the hard yards to work together having some answers. Not pick another "managed decliner" like Hunt / Sunak or a "I am going to up turn the apple cart and nobody is going to stop me" Truss.
    They also desperately need someone not posh and not rich and not Truss
    The words you are looking for is a normal human being. Another problem the Tories have is quite a few of those among their ranks that aren't morons and reasonably normal e.g. Javid, are off at the next GE. Same as lots of New Labour types went post 2010.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    MarqueeMark said:

    Farage would be a Poundland Boris.

    He can't even deliver himself a seat in Westminster. He wouldn't have delivered Brexit. He needed Boris to be the front man for that to happen.

    The odious twat can carry on being snug in Trump's lower intestine.

    I’ll put you down as a maybe.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Unless the Tories do the right thing and oust Sunak PDQ, the next Tory Prime Minister probably isn't even an MP yet.

    Next time will probably make it three times in a row that when Downing Street has changed parties, the incoming Prime Minister was not even an MP when his party lost power.

    Keir Starmer - MP since 2015, party lost office in 2010
    David Cameron - MP since 2001, party lost office in 1997
    Tony Blair - MP since 1983, party lost office in 1979

    If the trend continues, the next Tory PM will probably be first elected to Parliament around 2028.

    I'd put money on this.
    It feels that the Tories *need* to elect someone as Braverman as leader in opposition, howl at the moon for a term or two, and then decide they actually prefer being in the mess of power to the comfort zone of impotent opposition. It's when you elect a Starmer not a Corbyn, or a Cameron not an IDS, as leader. But that comfort zone phase seems like it's a psychological crutch, and needed, before you get to that point.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,896
    If Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election, Conservative members would certainly consider voting for Farage to be Leader of the Opposition. He is certainly more charismatic than most of the alternatives given Boris has gone.

    However Tory MPs wouldn't put him in the final 2 and CCHQ wouldn't allow him on the approved parliamentary candidates list anyway so it is a non starter. Farage's best chance to lead the Tories probably came in early 2019 if May had stayed and the Brexit party then beaten the Tories as Brexit continued to be delayed and the 2 parties merged to get Brexit done
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    Sandpit said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
    Also, on the narrow point, Murray is right

    Very few Nazis exulted in their brutal murder of Jews. For many it was an appalling task (hence the gas chambers run by Ukrainian guards, so the Nazis could avoid the worst personal experiences). For others it was a dull, messy necessity. Like running a slaughterhouse

    There were nonetheless some psychos who loved it but they were rare

    On the contrary most of the Hamas militants DO seem to have exulted in their appalling crimes

    If Murray has, however, come right out and said October 7 was “worse than the Holocaust” then that is foolish hyperbole

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,805
    edited November 2023
    HYUFD said:

    If Sunak and Hunt lose the next general election, Conservative members would certainly consider voting for Farage to be Leader of the Opposition. He is certainly more charismatic than most of the alternatives given Boris has gone.

    However Tory MPs wouldn't put him in the final 2 and CCHQ wouldn't allow him on the approved parliamentary candidates list anyway so it is a non starter. Farage's best chance to lead the Tories probably came in early 2019 if May had stayed and the Brexit party then beaten the Tories as Brexit continued to be delayed and the 2 parties merged to get Brexit done

    "If..."?

    You still hold out hope they won't lose then?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
    Also, on the narrow point, Murray is right

    Very few Nazis exulted in their brutal murder of Jews. For many it was an appalling task (hence the gas chambers run by Ukrainian guards, so the Nazis could avoid the worst personal experiences). For others it was a dull, messy necessity. Like running a slaughterhouse

    There were nonetheless some psychos who loved it but they were rare

    On the contrary most of the Hamas militants DO seem to have exulted in their appalling crimes

    If Murray has, however, come right out and said October 7 was “worse than the Holocaust” then that is foolish hyperbole

    Murray has gone a bit off the deep end in his recent media interviews. Normally he "wins" arguments by remaining calm, albeit can be very smug, condescending etc. The Ben Shapiro approach.

    However, he has definitely overstepped the mark, repeatedly saying if the UK government doesn't kick out a number of Iranian and Hamas leaders who live in the UK, he will a) give out their addresses and b) will take personal legal action...the issue being of course they have British citizenship and guessing have been very careful about not breaking the law.

    Giving out addresses to all and sundry of such individuals I imagine would get yourself in legal trouble. And of course we don't actually know why a former Iranian leader is here, it could be that the British system has let somebody who really should be undesirable live here, or is there some sort of intelligence quid pro quo going on....same as Sailisbury Novachok target.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    The next Tory leader needs to be young and hungry and absolutely spoiling for a fight - and ready to do the hard hard work of opposition

    Farage is 59

    Braverman is 43

    Just sayin’

    Truss is 48. Has comparative youth AND experience on her side.
    I thought the header was about either her or Boris, TBH.

    Farage makes either of them look... marginally serious.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,080
    Labour hold the Hackney Mayoralty but with an 8% swing to Greens.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
    Also, on the narrow point, Murray is right

    Very few Nazis exulted in their brutal murder of Jews. For many it was an appalling task (hence the gas chambers run by Ukrainian guards, so the Nazis could avoid the worst personal experiences). For others it was a dull, messy necessity. Like running a slaughterhouse

    There were nonetheless some psychos who loved it but they were rare

    On the contrary most of the Hamas militants DO seem to have exulted in their appalling crimes

    If Murray has, however, come right out and said October 7 was “worse than the Holocaust” then that is foolish hyperbole

    Murray has gone a bit off the deep end in his recent media interviews. Normally he "wins" arguments by remaining calm, albeit can be very smug, condescending etc. The Ben Shapiro approach.

    However, he has definitely overstepped the mark, repeatedly saying if the UK government doesn't kick out a number of Iranian and Hamas leaders who live in the UK, he will a) give out their addresses and b) will take personal legal action...the issue being of course they have British citizenship and guessing have been very careful about not breaking the law.
    Yes that sounds a little unhinged. I hope he remains sane

    He a smart articulate voice on the right. It would be a shame if he got himself cancelled
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
    Also, on the narrow point, Murray is right

    Very few Nazis exulted in their brutal murder of Jews. For many it was an appalling task (hence the gas chambers run by Ukrainian guards, so the Nazis could avoid the worst personal experiences). For others it was a dull, messy necessity. Like running a slaughterhouse

    There were nonetheless some psychos who loved it but they were rare

    On the contrary most of the Hamas militants DO seem to have exulted in their appalling crimes

    If Murray has, however, come right out and said October 7 was “worse than the Holocaust” then that is foolish hyperbole

    Murray has gone a bit off the deep end in his recent media interviews. Normally he "wins" arguments by remaining calm, albeit can be very smug, condescending etc. The Ben Shapiro approach.

    However, he has definitely overstepped the mark, repeatedly saying if the UK government doesn't kick out a number of Iranian and Hamas leaders who live in the UK, he will a) give out their addresses and b) will take personal legal action...the issue being of course they have British citizenship and guessing have been very careful about not breaking the law.
    Yes that sounds a little unhinged. I hope he remains sane

    He a smart articulate voice on the right. It would be a shame if he got himself cancelled
    The thing is don't need to start using hyperbole or looking to find hypocrisy and wrong doing in every possible area, the anti-Semites in UK, US, etc are doing a very good job of identifying themselves daily.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,347
    Foxy said:

    Next leader seems implausible. He would have to be selected for the safest of safe seats as Con candidate next year.

    I just cannot see that.

    Peerage. Which many Tories think he deserves for energising and enabling Brexit.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
    Also, on the narrow point, Murray is right

    Very few Nazis exulted in their brutal murder of Jews. For many it was an appalling task (hence the gas chambers run by Ukrainian guards, so the Nazis could avoid the worst personal experiences). For others it was a dull, messy necessity. Like running a slaughterhouse

    There were nonetheless some psychos who loved it but they were rare

    On the contrary most of the Hamas militants DO seem to have exulted in their appalling crimes

    If Murray has, however, come right out and said October 7 was “worse than the Holocaust” then that is foolish hyperbole

    Murray has gone a bit off the deep end in his recent media interviews. Normally he "wins" arguments by remaining calm, albeit can be very smug, condescending etc. The Ben Shapiro approach.

    However, he has definitely overstepped the mark, repeatedly saying if the UK government doesn't kick out a number of Iranian and Hamas leaders who live in the UK, he will a) give out their addresses and b) will take personal legal action...the issue being of course they have British citizenship and guessing have been very careful about not breaking the law.
    Yes that sounds a little unhinged. I hope he remains sane

    He a smart articulate voice on the right. It would be a shame if he got himself cancelled
    The thing is don't need to start using hyperbole or looking to find hypocrisy and wrong doing in every possible area, the anti-Semites in UK, US, etc are doing a very good job of identifying themselves daily.
    He’s going full racist/bigot.


  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,812
    Leon said:

    The next Tory leader needs to be young and hungry and absolutely spoiling for a fight - and ready to do the hard hard work of opposition

    Farage is 59

    Braverman is 43

    Just sayin’

    Kemi Badenoch also 43. Bit surprised at that - thought she was younger than Braverman by a good few years.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,399
    edited November 2023
    [...]
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,904
    It's struck me that the heyday of political betting is over - the neat zero interest rates meant that you could happily bet on all sorts of long-dated bets and not worry about your capital being tied up.

    The fix of course is that BF (and others) pay interest on your funds, and of course that's not happening. I'll miss it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    Did anyone watch Gen V yet ?

    I thoroughly enjoyed it, FWIW. (Gratuitous violence trigger warning.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    Nigelb said:

    Did anyone watch Gen V yet ?

    I thoroughly enjoyed it, FWIW. (Gratuitous violence trigger warning.)

    Loving it.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    That Nigel is so hot right now

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    Omnium said:

    It's struck me that the heyday of political betting is over - the neat zero interest rates meant that you could happily bet on all sorts of long-dated bets and not worry about your capital being tied up.

    The fix of course is that BF (and others) pay interest on your funds, and of course that's not happening. I'll miss it.

    It is why betting season long bets like who will win the EPL is a suckers bet as a chunk of your bankroll is tied up for 9 months.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,151
    Leon said:

    Farage would be a TERRIBLE choice. On that basis you could argue the Tories will probably do it. But I think they will swerve it

    Young HY has been telling us for ages that the Tories’ first choice once in opposition will be terrible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    RochdalePioneers said:

    That Nigel is so hot right now

    Not that Nigel.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    edited November 2023
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
    Also, on the narrow point, Murray is right

    Very few Nazis exulted in their brutal murder of Jews. For many it was an appalling task (hence the gas chambers run by Ukrainian guards, so the Nazis could avoid the worst personal experiences). For others it was a dull, messy necessity. Like running a slaughterhouse

    There were nonetheless some psychos who loved it but they were rare

    On the contrary most of the Hamas militants DO seem to have exulted in their appalling crimes

    If Murray has, however, come right out and said October 7 was “worse than the Holocaust” then that is foolish hyperbole

    Murray has gone a bit off the deep end in his recent media interviews. Normally he "wins" arguments by remaining calm, albeit can be very smug, condescending etc. The Ben Shapiro approach.

    However, he has definitely overstepped the mark, repeatedly saying if the UK government doesn't kick out a number of Iranian and Hamas leaders who live in the UK, he will a) give out their addresses and b) will take personal legal action...the issue being of course they have British citizenship and guessing have been very careful about not breaking the law.
    Yes that sounds a little unhinged. I hope he remains sane

    He a smart articulate voice on the right. It would be a shame if he got himself cancelled
    The thing is don't need to start using hyperbole or looking to find hypocrisy and wrong doing in every possible area, the anti-Semites in UK, US, etc are doing a very good job of identifying themselves daily.
    Yes. It why we should allow the pro-Pal marches to go past the cenotaph and why the counter protests are such an error

    With counter protests and the likes of Tommy Robinson any trouble can and will be painted as “ugly football hooligans” blah blah
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    I make this at least three EU countries which are now considering a UK style Rwanda plan for dealing with illegal migrants/asylum seekers - Denmark, Austria and now Germany (and maybe Italy too?)

    “The German government is considering a ‘Rwanda-style’ plan to process asylum applications outside the EU. It would be nothing short of a sea change in immigration policy.
    But can it keep the AfD at bay?
    My analysis @spectator 🗞️✍️”

    https://x.com/hoyer_kat/status/1722957895917007191?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    A pun worthy of PB.

    In remembrance of our fallen heroes, brave Suella Braverman goes over the top
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/10/remembrance-suella-braverman-home-secretary
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,896
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    Farage would be a TERRIBLE choice. On that basis you could argue the Tories will probably do it. But I think they will swerve it

    Young HY has been telling us for ages that the Tories’ first choice once in opposition will be terrible.
    Judging by previous experience of the last 2 times parties lost power, 2010 and 1997, the next Tory leader of the Opposition will be a relatively dull careerist in the middle of the party like Ed Miliband or William Hague, so Steve Barclay is a good bet.

    Only if he then loses the general election after that will the party go full ideologue eg IDS or Corbyn and look to a leader like Rees Mogg or Braverman or even Farage if he was a Conservative MP by then
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,399
    Nigelb said:

    Did anyone watch Gen V yet ?

    I thoroughly enjoyed it, FWIW. (Gratuitous violence trigger warning.)

    Not got telly except for digs. Excerpts on YouTube. Looks good.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,950
    slade said:

    Labour hold the Hackney Mayoralty but with an 8% swing to Greens.

    Missed opportunity for the Greens.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    What IS Starmer going to do about immigration and asylum?

    My sense is that he hasn’t got a clue. Nothing. He doesn’t even have a Rwanda style policy (however dramatic or unworkable, it is at least a concrete proposal)

    I reckon Starmer will do virtually nothing and thus the problem will get worse, and worse. And it could destroy his government in one term
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Farage doesn't have any real solutions to anything, so he would never stand up to daily scrutiny required of a leading politician.

    Nor did Boris. And if real solutions implies actual solutions that work in real life, nor did Truss.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,125
    a
    Leon said:

    What IS Starmer going to do about immigration and asylum?

    My sense is that he hasn’t got a clue. Nothing. He doesn’t even have a Rwanda style policy (however dramatic or unworkable, it is at least a concrete proposal)

    I reckon Starmer will do virtually nothing and thus the problem will get worse, and worse. And it could destroy his government in one term

    He could sell my policy to the Left - would stop the boats in the Channel.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
    Also, on the narrow point, Murray is right

    Very few Nazis exulted in their brutal murder of Jews. For many it was an appalling task (hence the gas chambers run by Ukrainian guards, so the Nazis could avoid the worst personal experiences). For others it was a dull, messy necessity. Like running a slaughterhouse

    There were nonetheless some psychos who loved it but they were rare

    On the contrary most of the Hamas militants DO seem to have exulted in their appalling crimes

    If Murray has, however, come right out and said October 7 was “worse than the Holocaust” then that is foolish hyperbole

    Murray has gone a bit off the deep end in his recent media interviews. Normally he "wins" arguments by remaining calm, albeit can be very smug, condescending etc. The Ben Shapiro approach.

    However, he has definitely overstepped the mark, repeatedly saying if the UK government doesn't kick out a number of Iranian and Hamas leaders who live in the UK, he will a) give out their addresses and b) will take personal legal action...the issue being of course they have British citizenship and guessing have been very careful about not breaking the law.
    Yes that sounds a little unhinged. I hope he remains sane

    He a smart articulate voice on the right. It would be a shame if he got himself cancelled
    The thing is don't need to start using hyperbole or looking to find hypocrisy and wrong doing in every possible area, the anti-Semites in UK, US, etc are doing a very good job of identifying themselves daily.
    He’s going full racist/bigot.


    Suella is on the same side in this argument as Tommy Robinson.

    Just let that sink in...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,123
    Leon said:

    I make this at least three EU countries which are now considering a UK style Rwanda plan for dealing with illegal migrants/asylum seekers - Denmark, Austria and now Germany (and maybe Italy too?)

    “The German government is considering a ‘Rwanda-style’ plan to process asylum applications outside the EU. It would be nothing short of a sea change in immigration policy.
    But can it keep the AfD at bay?
    My analysis @spectator 🗞️✍️”

    https://x.com/hoyer_kat/status/1722957895917007191?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    "Visit Gaza"
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,038
    Off topic, but important: Jewish students say they are being harassed and threatened at . . . MIT: https://twitter.com/RetsefL/status/1722852140245254559

    According to quick searches, CAA is the Coalition Against Apartheid and DUSP is the Department of Urban Studies and Planning. https://dusp.mit.edu/ Both names strike me as ironic.

    (For the record: I believe these charges, but do not have an independent way to check them.)
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 22,373
    Leon said:

    What IS Starmer going to do about immigration and asylum?

    My sense is that he hasn’t got a clue. Nothing. He doesn’t even have a Rwanda style policy (however dramatic or unworkable, it is at least a concrete proposal)

    I reckon Starmer will do virtually nothing and thus the problem will get worse, and worse. And it could destroy his government in one term

    He'll probably do the same as the Tories have done in the past four years, absolutely nothing.

    But since its not a major problem. that will be enough.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    The Gaza march on Saturday is expecting “hundreds of thousands”. It is organised by

    “The Palestine Solidarity Campaign, the Muslim Association of Britain, Friends of Al-Aqsa, Palestinian Forum in Britain, Stop the War and CND.”

    And it will be addressed by - amongst others - Jeremy Corbyn

    So if you go on that march you are knowingly attending a march organised by anti-Semites and quasi-Islamists, which will be addressed by a man so anti-Semitic he was expelled from the Labour Party

    That really is quite something
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited November 2023
    noneoftheabove said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Farage doesn't have any real solutions to anything, so he would never stand up to daily scrutiny required of a leading politician.

    Nor did Boris. And if real solutions implies actual solutions that work in real life, nor did Truss.
    As I stated, the Tories have tried the electing these people and they are a disaster. They will get walloped at the GE because of it, and so if you had half a brain you don't go for Boris Extreme in the form of Farage.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited November 2023
    Jim_Miller said:

    Off topic, but important: Jewish students say they are being harassed and threatened at . . . MIT: https://twitter.com/RetsefL/status/1722852140245254559

    According to quick searches, CAA is the Coalition Against Apartheid and DUSP is the Department of Urban Studies and Planning. https://dusp.mit.edu/ Both names strike me as ironic.

    (For the record: I believe these charges, but do not have an independent way to check them.)

    Its fascinating that in the past these institutions have been extremely quick to take action when complaints about stupid stuff like people being offended by Halloween costumes or a member of staff not being sufficiently polite to students or explaining that the Chinese filler word sounds a bit like a racial slur, but please don't be offended, it isn't that word....

    But students and staff being antisemitic, hassling Israeli and Jewish students, well its complicated....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
    Also, on the narrow point, Murray is right

    Very few Nazis exulted in their brutal murder of Jews. For many it was an appalling task (hence the gas chambers run by Ukrainian guards, so the Nazis could avoid the worst personal experiences). For others it was a dull, messy necessity. Like running a slaughterhouse

    There were nonetheless some psychos who loved it but they were rare

    On the contrary most of the Hamas militants DO seem to have exulted in their appalling crimes

    If Murray has, however, come right out and said October 7 was “worse than the Holocaust” then that is foolish hyperbole

    We don't know what the contemporary reaction of Nazis was to the massacres of men, women and children they undertook daily - not only in concentration camps, but everywhere they had control - over a number of years, because they weren't recorded on smartphones. We do know that they kept on happening on an industrial scale and we do have survivors' testimony of the relish with which the barbarity was often inflicted.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    noneoftheabove said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Farage doesn't have any real solutions to anything, so he would never stand up to daily scrutiny required of a leading politician.

    Nor did Boris. And if real solutions implies actual solutions that work in real life, nor did Truss.
    As I stated, the Tories have tried the electing these people and they are a disaster. They will get walloped at the GE because of it, and so if you had half a brain you don't go for Boris Extreme in the form of Farage.
    Well of course but from a betting viewpoint my starting point is look at how people tend to act and assume they will do similar again, rather than hoping that they acquire half a brain from somewhere.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,832
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
    Also, on the narrow point, Murray is right

    Very few Nazis exulted in their brutal murder of Jews. For many it was an appalling task (hence the gas chambers run by Ukrainian guards, so the Nazis could avoid the worst personal experiences). For others it was a dull, messy necessity. Like running a slaughterhouse

    There were nonetheless some psychos who loved it but they were rare

    On the contrary most of the Hamas militants DO seem to have exulted in their appalling crimes

    If Murray has, however, come right out and said October 7 was “worse than the Holocaust” then that is foolish hyperbole

    Murray has gone a bit off the deep end in his recent media interviews. Normally he "wins" arguments by remaining calm, albeit can be very smug, condescending etc. The Ben Shapiro approach.

    However, he has definitely overstepped the mark, repeatedly saying if the UK government doesn't kick out a number of Iranian and Hamas leaders who live in the UK, he will a) give out their addresses and b) will take personal legal action...the issue being of course they have British citizenship and guessing have been very careful about not breaking the law.
    Yes that sounds a little unhinged. I hope he remains sane

    He a smart articulate voice on the right. It would be a shame if he got himself cancelled
    The thing is don't need to start using hyperbole or looking to find hypocrisy and wrong doing in every possible area, the anti-Semites in UK, US, etc are doing a very good job of identifying themselves daily.
    He’s going full racist/bigot.


    Is that a padded cell?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Leon said:

    What IS Starmer going to do about immigration and asylum?

    My sense is that he hasn’t got a clue. Nothing. He doesn’t even have a Rwanda style policy (however dramatic or unworkable, it is at least a concrete proposal)

    I reckon Starmer will do virtually nothing and thus the problem will get worse, and worse. And it could destroy his government in one term

    He'll probably do the same as the Tories have done in the past four years, absolutely nothing.

    But since its not a major problem. that will be enough.
    If it’s not a major problem why are Denmark, Austria and now Germany all considering a version of the “racist, insane” UK Rwanda plan?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited November 2023
    Leon said:

    The Gaza march on Saturday is expecting “hundreds of thousands”. It is organised by

    “The Palestine Solidarity Campaign, the Muslim Association of Britain, Friends of Al-Aqsa, Palestinian Forum in Britain, Stop the War and CND.”

    And it will be addressed by - amongst others - Jeremy Corbyn

    So if you go on that march you are knowingly attending a march organised by anti-Semites and quasi-Islamists, which will be addressed by a man so anti-Semitic he was expelled from the Labour Party

    That really is quite something

    One good point I have heard Douglas Murray make is if you go on a march and you witness people shouting River to the Sea constantly, calling for Jihad or interfada, signs with keep the streets clean of Jews....once you can say well there are some dodgy people on this march, by week 4, you know the sort of people who are organising this, who will be attending, you can't claim ignorance.

    It is why the big ecofascists marches have died off, people realised that they might well agree with general premise that we should do more about combatting climate change, but actually XR etc are Marxists who want to overthrow the state, not put up a few more windmills.

    Also the student fees ones, soon as there was violence that was it, people went I don't want to be associated with coked up privileged wankers swinging on the Cenotaph and smashing up the wrong building that they thought was Tory HQ.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,038
    Here's the Ramirez cartoon that the WaPo removed from their site:
    https://www.reviewjournal.com/opinion/michael-ramirez/cartoon-what-hamas-is-really-doing-2934584/

    As I said yesterday, I thought he came close to the line of acceptability, but did not -- for me -- cross it.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,399
    Friday afternoon. Leave work at 7pm. Emails have to be out by 5pm. Stress, stress, stress. Only Pertwee, UNIT and a bureaucratic Man from the Ministry can save me now. Two hours. That's four episodes. Hello, "Claws of Axos".

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p00v5cvh/doctor-who-19631996-season-8-the-claws-of-axos-episode-1
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Leon said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Leon said:

    What IS Starmer going to do about immigration and asylum?

    My sense is that he hasn’t got a clue. Nothing. He doesn’t even have a Rwanda style policy (however dramatic or unworkable, it is at least a concrete proposal)

    I reckon Starmer will do virtually nothing and thus the problem will get worse, and worse. And it could destroy his government in one term

    He'll probably do the same as the Tories have done in the past four years, absolutely nothing.

    But since its not a major problem. that will be enough.
    If it’s not a major problem why are Denmark, Austria and now Germany all considering a version of the “racist, insane” UK Rwanda plan?

    They're not. Processing of asylum applications overseas is not the same as automatically denying all asylum applications and sending claimants overseas.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Leon said:

    The Gaza march on Saturday is expecting “hundreds of thousands”. It is organised by

    “The Palestine Solidarity Campaign, the Muslim Association of Britain, Friends of Al-Aqsa, Palestinian Forum in Britain, Stop the War and CND.”

    And it will be addressed by - amongst others - Jeremy Corbyn

    So if you go on that march you are knowingly attending a march organised by anti-Semites and quasi-Islamists, which will be addressed by a man so anti-Semitic he was expelled from the Labour Party

    That really is quite something

    If you go on one of those marches you are, at best, a useful idiot for Hamas. You have also chosen to ignore Jewish people who say that they are profoundly upset and scared by them. You should be prepared to be judged on that basis.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,156
    Leon said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Leon said:

    What IS Starmer going to do about immigration and asylum?

    My sense is that he hasn’t got a clue. Nothing. He doesn’t even have a Rwanda style policy (however dramatic or unworkable, it is at least a concrete proposal)

    I reckon Starmer will do virtually nothing and thus the problem will get worse, and worse. And it could destroy his government in one term

    He'll probably do the same as the Tories have done in the past four years, absolutely nothing.

    But since its not a major problem. that will be enough.
    If it’s not a major problem why are Denmark, Austria and now Germany all considering a version of the “racist, insane” UK Rwanda plan?
    The biggest problem with the Rwanda plan is it wouldn't work if implemented anyway.
    The next biggest problem with the Rwanda plan is it is illegal in several aspects, and the government for all its bluster is unwilling or doesnt have the votes to change the law.
    Then we get to it costing far more than alternative solutions.

    Whether it is racist or not is hardly relevant.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    Leon said:

    The Gaza march on Saturday is expecting “hundreds of thousands”. It is organised by

    “The Palestine Solidarity Campaign, the Muslim Association of Britain, Friends of Al-Aqsa, Palestinian Forum in Britain, Stop the War and CND.”

    And it will be addressed by - amongst others - Jeremy Corbyn

    So if you go on that march you are knowingly attending a march organised by anti-Semites and quasi-Islamists, which will be addressed by a man so anti-Semitic he was expelled from the Labour Party

    That really is quite something

    A march partially organised by FOA. A pro-Hamas group. A march partially organised by various other organisations happy to partner up with Hamas supporters. A march where banner after banner and speaker after speaker will denounce Israel - and even Jews - where they are absolutely the only aggressor and the people who need to stop killing people.

    Whilst she cannot say such things as Home Secretary, Braverman has a point about it being a hate march. Organised in part by hateful people to draw in hateful people and the people sympathetic enough to ignore the hateful part because America bad.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    The Gaza march on Saturday is expecting “hundreds of thousands”. It is organised by

    “The Palestine Solidarity Campaign, the Muslim Association of Britain, Friends of Al-Aqsa, Palestinian Forum in Britain, Stop the War and CND.”

    And it will be addressed by - amongst others - Jeremy Corbyn

    So if you go on that march you are knowingly attending a march organised by anti-Semites and quasi-Islamists, which will be addressed by a man so anti-Semitic he was expelled from the Labour Party

    That really is quite something

    One good point I have heard Douglas Murray make is if you go on a march and you witness people shouting River to the Sea constantly, calling for Jihad or interfada, signs with keep the streets clean of Jews....once you can say well there are some dodgy people on this march, by week 4, you know the sort of people who are organising this, who will be attending, you can't claim ignorance.

    It is why the big ecofascists marches have died off, people realised that they might well agree with general premise that we should do more about combatting climate change, but actually XR etc are Marxists who want to overthrow the state, not put up a few more windmills.

    Also the student fees ones, soon as there was violence that was it, people went I don't want to be associated with coked up privileged wankers swinging on the Cenotaph and smashing up the wrong building that they thought was Tory HQ.

    A general rule of thumb is that any march where you see prominent displays of SWP banners and placards is a march you should not be on.

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Leon said:

    The Gaza march on Saturday is expecting “hundreds of thousands”. It is organised by

    “The Palestine Solidarity Campaign, the Muslim Association of Britain, Friends of Al-Aqsa, Palestinian Forum in Britain, Stop the War and CND.”

    And it will be addressed by - amongst others - Jeremy Corbyn

    So if you go on that march you are knowingly attending a march organised by anti-Semites and quasi-Islamists, which will be addressed by a man so anti-Semitic he was expelled from the Labour Party

    That really is quite something

    Yes. You have to be careful of the company you keep. I, for one, would hesitate to knowingly write for a magazine that engaged a "soi-disant anti-semite"* Golden Dawn** supporter to pen a column, yet I understand some people do so. Amazing.



    *to give him the benefit of the doubt, although the literal translation is "self-described" it can also mean "supposedly", but given he lives in Switzerland and invites people to sympathise with the WW2 Wehrmacht, I think the nod and wink was obvious.

    ** founder has a swastika tattooed on his left arm and quoted The Protocols of the Elders of Zion in a 2012 speech to parliament
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,950
    Jonathan Sumption's latest piece in UnHerd.

    "Free speech is still worth fighting for
    No one is entitled to intellectual safety"

    https://unherd.com/2023/11/free-speech-is-still-worth-fighting-for/
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    SouthamObserver said:

    Leon said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Leon said:

    What IS Starmer going to do about immigration and asylum?

    My sense is that he hasn’t got a clue. Nothing. He doesn’t even have a Rwanda style policy (however dramatic or unworkable, it is at least a concrete proposal)

    I reckon Starmer will do virtually nothing and thus the problem will get worse, and worse. And it could destroy his government in one term

    He'll probably do the same as the Tories have done in the past four years, absolutely nothing.

    But since its not a major problem. that will be enough.
    If it’s not a major problem why are Denmark, Austria and now Germany all considering a version of the “racist, insane” UK Rwanda plan?

    They're not. Processing of asylum applications overseas is not the same as automatically denying all asylum applications and sending claimants overseas.

    To misquote a bit of Natural Born Killers, Leon knows the difference between Rwanda and these European schemes, he just doesn't give a f
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,629
    Leon said:

    I make this at least three EU countries which are now considering a UK style Rwanda plan for dealing with illegal migrants/asylum seekers - Denmark, Austria and now Germany (and maybe Italy too?)

    “The German government is considering a ‘Rwanda-style’ plan to process asylum applications outside the EU. It would be nothing short of a sea change in immigration policy.
    But can it keep the AfD at bay?
    My analysis @spectator 🗞️✍️”

    https://x.com/hoyer_kat/status/1722957895917007191?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Ummm:

    Processing applications overseas is not the same as sending people to claim asylum in Rwanda.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    SouthamObserver said:

    Leon said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Leon said:

    What IS Starmer going to do about immigration and asylum?

    My sense is that he hasn’t got a clue. Nothing. He doesn’t even have a Rwanda style policy (however dramatic or unworkable, it is at least a concrete proposal)

    I reckon Starmer will do virtually nothing and thus the problem will get worse, and worse. And it could destroy his government in one term

    He'll probably do the same as the Tories have done in the past four years, absolutely nothing.

    But since its not a major problem. that will be enough.
    If it’s not a major problem why are Denmark, Austria and now Germany all considering a version of the “racist, insane” UK Rwanda plan?

    They're not. Processing of asylum applications overseas is not the same as automatically denying all asylum applications and sending claimants overseas.

    Which is why I said “versions of” not “exactly copying”

    This is the German proposal

    “He proposed approaching countries in north Africa which are situated along migration routes to build asylum processing centres there. Refugees entering the EU could then be taken to them to have their claims checked.”

    So the Germans will take asylum seekers from Germany or elsewhere in the EU to countries like Morocco or chad and they will have their asylum claims processed in Africa

    The intent is clearly the same as the uk Rwanda plan. To introduce an element of deterrent. If your asylum claim fails then you could end up stuck in chad or Libya or wherever

    Do you approve of this German variant of the uk plan?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    Leon said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
    Also, on the narrow point, Murray is right

    Very few Nazis exulted in their brutal murder of Jews. For many it was an appalling task (hence the gas chambers run by Ukrainian guards, so the Nazis could avoid the worst personal experiences). For others it was a dull, messy necessity. Like running a slaughterhouse

    There were nonetheless some psychos who loved it but they were rare

    On the contrary most of the Hamas militants DO seem to have exulted in their appalling crimes

    If Murray has, however, come right out and said October 7 was “worse than the Holocaust” then that is foolish hyperbole

    Murray has gone a bit off the deep end in his recent media interviews. Normally he "wins" arguments by remaining calm, albeit can be very smug, condescending etc. The Ben Shapiro approach.

    However, he has definitely overstepped the mark, repeatedly saying if the UK government doesn't kick out a number of Iranian and Hamas leaders who live in the UK, he will a) give out their addresses and b) will take personal legal action...the issue being of course they have British citizenship and guessing have been very careful about not breaking the law.
    Yes that sounds a little unhinged. I hope he remains sane

    He a smart articulate voice on the right. It would be a shame if he got himself cancelled
    Is he as smart and articulate a voice on the right as D. Grimes (©someone or other)?

    I reckon Doogie would just edge the 'who is the most assiduous user of photo filters' competition.









  • LeonLeon Posts: 56,606
    RochdalePioneers said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Leon said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Leon said:

    What IS Starmer going to do about immigration and asylum?

    My sense is that he hasn’t got a clue. Nothing. He doesn’t even have a Rwanda style policy (however dramatic or unworkable, it is at least a concrete proposal)

    I reckon Starmer will do virtually nothing and thus the problem will get worse, and worse. And it could destroy his government in one term

    He'll probably do the same as the Tories have done in the past four years, absolutely nothing.

    But since its not a major problem. that will be enough.
    If it’s not a major problem why are Denmark, Austria and now Germany all considering a version of the “racist, insane” UK Rwanda plan?

    They're not. Processing of asylum applications overseas is not the same as automatically denying all asylum applications and sending claimants overseas.

    To misquote a bit of Natural Born Killers, Leon knows the difference between Rwanda and these European schemes, he just doesn't give a f
    No, I said “versions of”. Not “copying”. I am entirely aware of the difference
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,898
    SouthamObserver said:

    Leon said:

    The Gaza march on Saturday is expecting “hundreds of thousands”. It is organised by

    “The Palestine Solidarity Campaign, the Muslim Association of Britain, Friends of Al-Aqsa, Palestinian Forum in Britain, Stop the War and CND.”

    And it will be addressed by - amongst others - Jeremy Corbyn

    So if you go on that march you are knowingly attending a march organised by anti-Semites and quasi-Islamists, which will be addressed by a man so anti-Semitic he was expelled from the Labour Party

    That really is quite something

    If you go on one of those marches you are, at best, a useful idiot for Hamas. You have also chosen to ignore Jewish people who say that they are profoundly upset and scared by them. You should be prepared to be judged on that basis.

    I have no intention of going but I'd note that many of the people saying the march should be banned in case it upsets someone are the same people decrying cancel culture and defending free speech on the basis that there is no right not to be upset by someone else's opinion.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,950
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Leon said:

    What IS Starmer going to do about immigration and asylum?

    My sense is that he hasn’t got a clue. Nothing. He doesn’t even have a Rwanda style policy (however dramatic or unworkable, it is at least a concrete proposal)

    I reckon Starmer will do virtually nothing and thus the problem will get worse, and worse. And it could destroy his government in one term

    He'll probably do the same as the Tories have done in the past four years, absolutely nothing.

    But since its not a major problem. that will be enough.
    It isn't a major problem for middle-class urban liberals.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,201
    edited November 2023
    SouthamObserver said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    We’ve now moved from the ‘as bad as Nazis’ to the ‘worse than Nazis’ stage.


    I’ll guess that everyone calling Douglas Murray a racist, hasn’t actually listened to his full interview with Dave Rubin.
    Also, on the narrow point, Murray is right

    Very few Nazis exulted in their brutal murder of Jews. For many it was an appalling task (hence the gas chambers run by Ukrainian guards, so the Nazis could avoid the worst personal experiences). For others it was a dull, messy necessity. Like running a slaughterhouse

    There were nonetheless some psychos who loved it but they were rare

    On the contrary most of the Hamas militants DO seem to have exulted in their appalling crimes

    If Murray has, however, come right out and said October 7 was “worse than the Holocaust” then that is foolish hyperbole

    We don't know what the contemporary reaction of Nazis was to the massacres of men, women and children they undertook daily - not only in concentration camps, but everywhere they had control - over a number of years, because they weren't recorded on smartphones. We do know that they kept on happening on an industrial scale and we do have survivors' testimony of the relish with which the barbarity was often inflicted.

    We have the odd clue.
    https://time.com/6047155/final-account-holocaust-documentary/

    Have you read this book ?
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Ordinary-Men-Reserve-Battalion-Solution-ebook/dp/B01G1F0F84

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Leon said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Leon said:

    BartholomewRoberts said:

    Leon said:

    What IS Starmer going to do about immigration and asylum?

    My sense is that he hasn’t got a clue. Nothing. He doesn’t even have a Rwanda style policy (however dramatic or unworkable, it is at least a concrete proposal)

    I reckon Starmer will do virtually nothing and thus the problem will get worse, and worse. And it could destroy his government in one term

    He'll probably do the same as the Tories have done in the past four years, absolutely nothing.

    But since its not a major problem. that will be enough.
    If it’s not a major problem why are Denmark, Austria and now Germany all considering a version of the “racist, insane” UK Rwanda plan?

    They're not. Processing of asylum applications overseas is not the same as automatically denying all asylum applications and sending claimants overseas.

    Which is why I said “versions of” not “exactly copying”

    This is the German proposal

    “He proposed approaching countries in north Africa which are situated along migration routes to build asylum processing centres there. Refugees entering the EU could then be taken to them to have their claims checked.”

    So the Germans will take asylum seekers from Germany or elsewhere in the EU to countries like Morocco or chad and they will have their asylum claims processed in Africa

    The intent is clearly the same as the uk Rwanda plan. To introduce an element of deterrent. If your asylum claim fails then you could end up stuck in chad or Libya or wherever

    Do you approve of this German variant of the uk plan?

    I don't have a huge problem with it. If the capacity to process here does not exist, then I don't see a major issue in processing elsewhere.
This discussion has been closed.