New figures from the Office for National Statistics reveal the number of UK workers in low-paid jobs (on an hourly rate of less than two thirds of the average) has dropped to 8.9%. The lowest in 26 years…
Which would be great if cost of living / inflation / interest rates weren't so much higher.
Surely a feature of the minimum wage going up by inflation, when pay hasn't?
Random example: my personal trainer was complaining that her 23 y.o. son (warehouse operator in Asda) now earns the same as her per hour.
We've long been there because lots of things can be seen as offensive when viewed from a different perspective. Here it is party hats in Palestinian colours. A week or so back it was Greta Thunberg's autistic octopus branded antisemitic. The MCC is fussing over whether a stand named after Plum Warner is too close to Warner's slave-owning ancestors. The last two days at the Covid inquiry were spent debating whether Dominic Cummings was misogynistic or just offensive in Whatsapp groups.
We've long been there because lots of things can be seen as offensive when viewed from a different perspective. Here it is party hats in Palestinian colours. A week or so back it was Greta Thunberg's autistic octopus branded antisemitic. The MCC is fussing over whether a stand named after Plum Warner is too close to Warner's slave-owning ancestors. The last two days at the Covid inquiry were spent debating whether Dominic Cummings was misogynistic or just offensive in Whatsapp groups.
Didn't the Cummings one turn on whether he used 'stiletto' to refer to a knife or a lady's shoe?
Assuming Labour cut deeply in to SNP seats, it will be interesting to see how they manage things going forward. I have always been of the opinion that SLab constantly grievance mongering about the Tories at Westminster did half of the SNPs job for them. As a result SLab shot themselves in the foot.
They now have a chance to reset the message, but what will they say ?
Remember that the key reason that Scottish Labour had their ELE was massive arrogance. They genuinely believed that their massive vote was owned, so a load of their old MPs didn't bother to door knock or engage with constituents or do any work.
I envisage that the new MPs elected will have been directed to do the basics this time, which will boost their chances of reelection. As for relations with the Scottish Tories it depends on what the SCons say and do. They have had some good leaders (Davidson) and some terrible leaders (DRoss). If they pick Duguid next, they are truly doomed.
For the next decade at least the "enemy" is the SNP, targeting a half dozen tories in Scotland does not make sense. But that said I wouldnt put it past SLab to keep fighting the war before last. Whereas if Labour want to leverage their scottish seats in the UK Parlt, they need to be making their case for the Union.
Sane politicians have opponents, not 'enemies'. And it's pretty daft to suggest Labour makes common cause with the Tories in Scotland. Independence will always be there as an issue, but as a realistic prospect, is likely gone for the next decade.
On the issue of the Union its not daft at all. Its the how will they do it,
English Tories (ie most of them) really should be making common cause with the SNP given an independent England would be far more Tory than the Union is. I don’t understand this nostalgic attachment to the United Kingdom. What’s the point of it?
It wouldn't really, last time the UK elected a different party to England was 1974. We are better and stronger as one UK
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
We've long been there because lots of things can be seen as offensive when viewed from a different perspective. Here it is party hats in Palestinian colours. A week or so back it was Greta Thunberg's autistic octopus branded antisemitic. The MCC is fussing over whether a stand named after Plum Warner is too close to Warner's slave-owning ancestors. The last two days at the Covid inquiry were spent debating whether Dominic Cummings was misogynistic or just offensive in Whatsapp groups.
There was about half an hour out of the last two days on whether Cummings was misogynstic, not two days. The others should be ignored, so I shall not bother commenting on them beyond that.
What I can't work out, is whether it's bias towards Palestine (featuring the colours of Palestinian flag) or against Palestine (burning the Palestinian flag) or towards Palestine (the burning of the colours indicating the devastation visited on Gaza by Israel).
Please advise so I can be outraged in the correct direction.
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
They should have just gone with ‘Sensible Policies for a Happier Britain’.
I'm half convinced that Rishi's slogan was knowingly crafted by a Blackadder fan at CCHQ. Likewise, Labour's For the many, not the few was surely a nod to Star Trek. Even the London Olympics was branded with the Simpsons blow job logo.
Just sounds like a gaggle of right wing oddballs. ...ARC was first announced by right-wing commentator Jordan Peterson earlier this year, with the anti-woke mascot revealing in a YouTube video that he had “set up an international consortium in London” and was “trying to put together something like an alternative vision of the future — an alternative to the apocalyptic narrative.”
The event has been closely watched in the U.K. in particular, where, on current polling, the Conservatives look set to lose the coming election. Tellingly, Cabinet ministers Michael Gove and Kemi Badenoch — hotly-tipped as a future Tory leader — put in appearances.
ARC appears to have real clout behind it, too. Paul Marshall, a major investor in the upstart right-wing British broadcaster GB News and funder of the increasingly popular comment and analysis website UnHerd, is one of the directors. Marshall, who is worth £680m according to the Sunday Times Rich List, is rumored to be looking to buy right-leaning staples the Telegraph and the Spectator.
He is joined at the helm of ARC by Alan McCormick, current chairman of GB News, who is also a partner of Dubai-based investment group Legatum, which is partly funding the conference. The list of those backing the event runs long, and includes Former Australian Prime Minister John Howard, and ex-U.S. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy...
I wouldn't be so ready to write this off. Marshall is putting a lot of money into promoting right wing causes, it is well networked across the English speaking world, this alliance has already delivered one policy "win" - Brexit - and it clearly has ambitions to shake up politics on the right - with the UK Tory party ripe for a takeover next year. Precisely what Marshall wants to achieve is unclear but he is a devout Christian - a lot of his projects are called Ark or variations on that theme so I think that is a clue to his mindset. There's an interesting piece on him in the FT - I think it makes sense to view him as an increasingly important political player, with UnHerd and GB News only the start of his ambitions. Just because much of this seems absurd - stupid person's idea of a smart person Jordan Peterson is signed up, natch - doesn't mean we shouldn't take it seriously.
It seems pretty clear that he wishes to import US style culture war conservatism. Quite telling that someone like Badenoch sounds positively restrained in that company.
US style conservatism needs US style religiosity. We have our own ways of tearing each other apart but I don’t think we have the religious equivalent of Southern US religiosity.
It was much broader than that, speakers included Katherine Barbalsingh the free school founder, former Australian PM John Howard and Roman Catholic and Anglican Bishops from Sydney
Your roving reporter from the South Coast would like to report that rumours of the destruction of Brighton due to The Storm were misconceived. In everyday language, we have what is commonly called a wet and windy day. I'm almost disappointed that it's not more dramatic, but not quite.
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
What I can't work out, is whether it's bias towards Palestine (featuring the colours of Palestinian flag) or against Palestine (burning the Palestinian flag) or towards Palestine (the burning of the colours indicating the devastation visited on Gaza by Israel).
Please advise so I can be outraged in the correct direction.
Its clearly an attempt to guilt us to take Palestinian refugees in for Christmas.
I suspect this is just cosplay to preserve the illusion that SLab is an independent entity.
The centrist dads’ latest line on Starmer ferreting all over the place on Gaza is what does it matter what the leader of the opposition says on the issue, it changes nothing (but that weirdly doesn’t seem to translate to Corbyn). I imagine that applies even more to the Scottish sub branch manager.
You’ve managed to get many of your greatest hits into that post. Well done.
As ever grateful to count you as an assiduous follower of my posts. I didn’t even have to summon you with a ‘Scotch expert’!
Don’t flatter yourself. Overall, there aren’t that many regular posters on here. I pay no special attention to you.
Phew. I've heard that you're not averse to doing a bit of 'research' on other posters. Lucky escape for me I suppose.
Yeah. I once entered “Scotch” into the search box at the top of Vanilla and, surprisingly, your name came up quite a bit. That makes me a right Woodward and Bernstein I’m sure. Borderline harassment as well if you ask me. Speak to your solicitor.
What I can't work out, is whether it's bias towards Palestine (featuring the colours of Palestinian flag) or against Palestine (burning the Palestinian flag) or towards Palestine (the burning of the colours indicating the devastation visited on Gaza by Israel).
Please advise so I can be outraged in the correct direction.
Not just any old Palestinian flag. A Marks and Spencer's Palestinian flag.
What I can't work out, is whether it's bias towards Palestine (featuring the colours of Palestinian flag) or against Palestine (burning the Palestinian flag) or towards Palestine (the burning of the colours indicating the devastation visited on Gaza by Israel).
Please advise so I can be outraged in the correct direction.
Its clearly an attempt to guilt us to take Palestinian refugees in for Christmas.
A Palestine refugee is not just for Christmas..
What better way to commemorate the birth of the original Palestinian seeker of asylum (or at least a cosy manger)?
I suspect this is just cosplay to preserve the illusion that SLab is an independent entity.
The centrist dads’ latest line on Starmer ferreting all over the place on Gaza is what does it matter what the leader of the opposition says on the issue, it changes nothing (but that weirdly doesn’t seem to translate to Corbyn). I imagine that applies even more to the Scottish sub branch manager.
You’ve managed to get many of your greatest hits into that post. Well done.
As ever grateful to count you as an assiduous follower of my posts. I didn’t even have to summon you with a ‘Scotch expert’!
Don’t flatter yourself. Overall, there aren’t that many regular posters on here. I pay no special attention to you.
Phew. I've heard that you're not averse to doing a bit of 'research' on other posters. Lucky escape for me I suppose.
Yeah. I once entered “Scotch” into the search box at the top of Vanilla and, surprisingly, your name came up quite a bit. That makes me a right Woodward and Bernstein I’m sure. Borderline harassment as well if you ask me. Speak to your solicitor.
Stop paying special attention to me or I will have to speak to my solicitor!
What I can't work out, is whether it's bias towards Palestine (featuring the colours of Palestinian flag) or against Palestine (burning the Palestinian flag) or towards Palestine (the burning of the colours indicating the devastation visited on Gaza by Israel).
Please advise so I can be outraged in the correct direction.
This is going to be a bit of a problem as we approach War Christmas.
Clever by M&S. You can't buy advertising on the BBC so the best thing to do is generate a story (as in, pandering to the complaints, it was filmed in August, but M&S saw the chance to make it a story).
What I can't work out, is whether it's bias towards Palestine (featuring the colours of Palestinian flag) or against Palestine (burning the Palestinian flag) or towards Palestine (the burning of the colours indicating the devastation visited on Gaza by Israel).
Please advise so I can be outraged in the correct direction.
This is going to be a bit of a problem as we approach War Christmas.
The bias is in the BBC giving it space on its website.
I suspect this is just cosplay to preserve the illusion that SLab is an independent entity.
The centrist dads’ latest line on Starmer ferreting all over the place on Gaza is what does it matter what the leader of the opposition says on the issue, it changes nothing (but that weirdly doesn’t seem to translate to Corbyn). I imagine that applies even more to the Scottish sub branch manager.
You’ve managed to get many of your greatest hits into that post. Well done.
As ever grateful to count you as an assiduous follower of my posts. I didn’t even have to summon you with a ‘Scotch expert’!
Don’t flatter yourself. Overall, there aren’t that many regular posters on here. I pay no special attention to you.
Phew. I've heard that you're not averse to doing a bit of 'research' on other posters. Lucky escape for me I suppose.
Yeah. I once entered “Scotch” into the search box at the top of Vanilla and, surprisingly, your name came up quite a bit. That makes me a right Woodward and Bernstein I’m sure. Borderline harassment as well if you ask me. Speak to your solicitor.
Stop paying special attention to me or I will have to speak to my solicitor!
It wasn't me I was referring to.
Ah. The joys of LinkedIn. I really should have changed the settings early. Say hi to Stu for me.
Clever by M&S. You can't buy advertising on the BBC so the best thing to do is generate a story (as in, pandering to the complaints, it was filmed in August, but M&S saw the chance to make it a story).
ALDI will be doing knock off Palestinian party hats as I type
Really defined calm centre of the storm, not an eye as such as this isn’t a closed hurricane but similar effect. So if you’re inland you’re probably wondering what the fuss is about.
Yes, trees barely moving when I look out my Leics window.
Blue sky and sunshine here, no even a rustle of leaves
Clever by M&S. You can't buy advertising on the BBC so the best thing to do is generate a story (as in, pandering to the complaints, it was filmed in August, but M&S saw the chance to make it a story).
Did they do one with blue and yellow hats as a contingency arrangement ?
Of course the more Scottish seats Labour gain from the SNP, the fewer English seats they need to gain from the Conservatives, helping their path to a UK overall majority
Pessimistic me is more concerned with the Tories losing Scottish seats so that they fail to win enough overall to form a government.
A hung parliament with the LibDems blocking Starmer's new town bollocks and pressing him on environmental issues wouldn't be a bad result.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
There are also fake articles and false magazine covers floating about on the darker corners of t'Internet. Not saying this is one of them, but take a little care.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
They would still be sending those extra troops into meat grinders where the Russian losses might be ten times those of Ukraine. Constant waves of troops might have worked at Stalingrad, but in the age of cluster munitions, not so much. The bulk of Russian troops are getting nowhere near the front line.
Russia cannot build at the speed required to replace losses. Even if they could, what they are producing have been shown to be poor quaity weapons, not able to defeat thousand dollar drones. Deployed - and destroyed. The woeful performance of Russian weaponry has been a disastrous advert for their arms industry. Their mechanised brigades are rusting hulks strewn across the border. These include many that were destined for export, but were seconded to the front. Hard to imagine the buyers will wait untold years for their replacements to be available.
Bear in mind, Ukraine was at the heart of the Soviet arms industry. Their ability to adapt and create, especially with drones, has shown they still have much expertise. They are developing their own long range rocket options to attack inside Russia, destroying facilities, stockpiles, barracks and airfields currently off limits to Western supplied weapons. If they get these up and running by the spring, expect Russia to find life a whole lot tougher to fight a war outside its borders.
Can I channel @Big_G_NorthWales by starting with "Good morning" (and hope you and yours are well Big G)
Scottish voters want to punish the Tories and the SNP? Great! So what do I do in the new Aberdeen North and Moray East seat? Want rid of the lickspittle David Duguid, but don't want to vote for the NippieNats either.
Lab and LD both well down in previous elections in both seats that merge into the new one. So on paper we will have the corrupt Tories and the corrupt SNP getting a shellacking. In favour of whom?
There are a few seats like that. I am going to be in Angus and Perthshire Glens. On the last election the SNP were 38%, the Tories were about 32% and Labour were next on 19%. I think on current swings this seat could be seriously competitive with the Tories down a bit but the SNP down a lot. The risk is that quite a lot of Unionists will vote Labour and let the SNP hold on. If I had remained In Dundee west I would have voted Labour.
The difference is that you consider voting Conservative to be a moral option. I do not. The SNP want to dissolve the union by seceding. The Tories want to dissolve the union by trashing it so badly that all of the component parts want to leave.
One party is corrupt, the other is corrupt. One party is incompetent, the other is incompetent. They *both* need to lose. Badly lose.
For me the most important issue is the Union and I would vote for whichever party was likely to defeat the SNP who really need a hammering if their poisonous grip on Scotland is to be broken. I will vote Conservative next time with the least enthusiasm that I have voted for anything but, in my view, it needs to be done.
I am hopeful that the Labour government of the next 10 years or so will undermine the SNP who will no longer be able to say that Scotland has a government that they did not vote for. That should make the Union safe. But at the end of the day in your position I would vote Labour even although I think Nick's calculation is somewhat optimistic.
David, don't be silly , we will never have a government we voted for unless you mean English labour party as the government.
Assuming Labour cut deeply in to SNP seats, it will be interesting to see how they manage things going forward. I have always been of the opinion that SLab constantly grievance mongering about the Tories at Westminster did half of the SNPs job for them. As a result SLab shot themselves in the foot.
They now have a chance to reset the message, but what will they say ?
Remember that the key reason that Scottish Labour had their ELE was massive arrogance. They genuinely believed that their massive vote was owned, so a load of their old MPs didn't bother to door knock or engage with constituents or do any work.
I envisage that the new MPs elected will have been directed to do the basics this time, which will boost their chances of reelection. As for relations with the Scottish Tories it depends on what the SCons say and do. They have had some good leaders (Davidson) and some terrible leaders (DRoss). If they pick Duguid next, they are truly doomed.
For the next decade at least the "enemy" is the SNP, targeting a half dozen tories in Scotland does not make sense. But that said I wouldnt put it past SLab to keep fighting the war before last. Whereas if Labour want to leverage their scottish seats in the UK Parlt, they need to be making their case for the Union.
When 'Independence vs the Union' is spotlighted it's good for the SNP because they have a lock on one side of that. So I'd say Labour's interests are best served not talking about it. For now anyway.
London Labour are never going to do anything but be against it so only a matter of time. Anus will be seen to be a mirror image of his name.
Of course the more Scottish seats Labour gain from the SNP, the fewer English seats they need to gain from the Conservatives, helping their path to a UK overall majority
Pessimistic me is more concerned with the Tories losing Scottish seats so that they fail to win enough overall to form a government.
A hung parliament with the LibDems blocking Starmer's new town bollocks and pressing him on environmental issues wouldn't be a bad result.
The last time we had the LibDems blocking policy, it was to stop any discussion on an EU referendum.
Which prevented a winnable referendum being called, wameron and Clegg standing side by side to vote for Remain.
By 2016, the issue had become so toxic that we ended up with Brexit.
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
Can I channel @Big_G_NorthWales by starting with "Good morning" (and hope you and yours are well Big G)
Scottish voters want to punish the Tories and the SNP? Great! So what do I do in the new Aberdeen North and Moray East seat? Want rid of the lickspittle David Duguid, but don't want to vote for the NippieNats either.
Lab and LD both well down in previous elections in both seats that merge into the new one. So on paper we will have the corrupt Tories and the corrupt SNP getting a shellacking. In favour of whom?
Vote Tory, destroy Scottish Nationalism, unlike Brexit, Scottish independence can never be undone.
Funny man. Vote Tory? Vote for corruption and incompetence? Vote for Fuck Business? Vote for Fuck You if you are poor? I could do the whole Trainspotting list but you know the rest.
I think the Sindy ship has sailed. A fever dream dissipated by the realities of Brexit. We would need a far more convincing set of politicians than the SNP or (stop giggling) Alba to persuade people to hurl themselves off the cliff into darkness.
You voted Brexit and regretted it immediately, if you vote SNP you will regret it even more.
Two very colonial views there from people with no clue about Scotland, up to the level of our usual "Scotch Experts"
Your roving reporter from the South Coast would like to report that rumours of the destruction of Brighton due to The Storm were misconceived. In everyday language, we have what is commonly called a wet and windy day. I'm almost disappointed that it's not more dramatic, but not quite.
New record low of 955hPa on our weather station at 05:17.
Assuming Labour cut deeply in to SNP seats, it will be interesting to see how they manage things going forward. I have always been of the opinion that SLab constantly grievance mongering about the Tories at Westminster did half of the SNPs job for them. As a result SLab shot themselves in the foot.
They now have a chance to reset the message, but what will they say ?
Remember that the key reason that Scottish Labour had their ELE was massive arrogance. They genuinely believed that their massive vote was owned, so a load of their old MPs didn't bother to door knock or engage with constituents or do any work.
I envisage that the new MPs elected will have been directed to do the basics this time, which will boost their chances of reelection. As for relations with the Scottish Tories it depends on what the SCons say and do. They have had some good leaders (Davidson) and some terrible leaders (DRoss). If they pick Duguid next, they are truly doomed.
For the next decade at least the "enemy" is the SNP, targeting a half dozen tories in Scotland does not make sense. But that said I wouldnt put it past SLab to keep fighting the war before last. Whereas if Labour want to leverage their scottish seats in the UK Parlt, they need to be making their case for the Union.
Sane politicians have opponents, not 'enemies'. And it's pretty daft to suggest Labour makes common cause with the Tories in Scotland. Independence will always be there as an issue, but as a realistic prospect, is likely gone for the next decade.
On the issue of the Union its not daft at all. Its the how will they do it,
English Tories (ie most of them) really should be making common cause with the SNP given an independent England would be far more Tory than the Union is. I don’t understand this nostalgic attachment to the United Kingdom. What’s the point of it?
It wouldn't really, last time the UK elected a different party to England was 1974. We are better and stronger as one UK
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
They would still be sending those extra troops into meat grinders where the Russian losses might be ten times those of Ukraine. Constant waves of troops might have worked at Stalingrad, but in the age of cluster munitions, not so much. The bulk of Russian troops are getting nowhere near the front line.
Russia cannot build at the speed required to replace losses. Even if they could, what they are producing have been shown to be poor quaity weapons, not able to defeat thousand dollar drones. Deployed - and destroyed. The woeful performance of Russian weaponry has been a disastrous advert for their arms industry. Their mechanised brigades are rusting hulks strewn across the border. These include many that were destined for export, but were seconded to the front. Hard to imagine the buyers will wait untold years for their replacements to be available.
Bear in mind, Ukraine was at the heart of the Soviet arms industry. Their ability to adapt and create, especially with drones, has shown they still have much expertise. They are developing their own long range rocket options to attack inside Russia, destroying facilities, stockpiles, barracks and airfields currently off limits to Western supplied weapons. If they get these up and running by the spring, expect Russia to find life a whole lot tougher to fight a war outside its borders.
Russia has been supplied with Iranian drones and is said to be manufacturing them under licence.
Note that Hamas not using these drones is another sign 7th October took Iran by surprise.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
I mean when the US does the inevitable 'Cable 243' on Zelensky they are going to need somebody else so maybe Zaluzhny.
Also saves on tippex when renaming official documents.
Can I channel @Big_G_NorthWales by starting with "Good morning" (and hope you and yours are well Big G)
Scottish voters want to punish the Tories and the SNP? Great! So what do I do in the new Aberdeen North and Moray East seat? Want rid of the lickspittle David Duguid, but don't want to vote for the NippieNats either.
Lab and LD both well down in previous elections in both seats that merge into the new one. So on paper we will have the corrupt Tories and the corrupt SNP getting a shellacking. In favour of whom?
The 2019 result on 2023 boundaries was Con 38.9, SNP 31.4, Lab 20.3, LD 2.1, Green 2.0
Assuming a 7 point Con-Lab swing and a 5 point SNP-Lab swing - both fairly modest assumptions on current polling - it looks like a Labour gain. If you don't want to vote Con or SNP it's certainly the best bet.
Perhaps you might even consider rejoining? Lots of people who left in 2019 have, not least a recent by-election winner.
Believe me, Nick. Labour are not going to win Aberdeenshire North and Moray East. They won't even be remotely close. Plenty of other Scottish seats for Anas and co to concentrate on.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
I am waiting for the Fortnum & Mason advert.
Booths, Fortnum & Mason is very much style over quality...
Put it this way tonight I will be buying Fudge from the supplier to Fortnum and Masons / Harrods / Selfridges at about 20% of the price those shops sell it at....
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
Really not so surprising. Major high street retailers need to be seen to be apolitical; newspapers wear their political leanings as a badge of honour.
If you can't spot that difference, you need to try a bit harder.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
John Major won a general election in 1992
I've heard it repeated here quite often now that Ulez expansion has been declared a rip roaring success. I assume the source for this 'news' is a TFL press release. Let's remind ourselves that its success or otherwise depends essentially on where you stood on it in the first place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/31/ulez-is-a-money-spinning-scam/ "So for every £3 claimed in Ulez payments this year, around £2 is going towards raising it. Given the experience of the congestion charge, we might expect this to fall towards £1 in every £3. Or maybe not, as cameras continue to be targeted by enraged activists. For comparison, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated the general administrative cost of raising taxes in the UK to be just over 1% in 2006, and thought this alarmingly expensive."
Of course the more Scottish seats Labour gain from the SNP, the fewer English seats they need to gain from the Conservatives, helping their path to a UK overall majority
Pessimistic me is more concerned with the Tories losing Scottish seats so that they fail to win enough overall to form a government.
A hung parliament with the LibDems blocking Starmer's new town bollocks and pressing him on environmental issues wouldn't be a bad result.
If the LDs have the balance of power in a hung parliament, Starmer would certainly find it hard to get his plans for new towns and building new homes on the greenbelt through, he needs a clear Labour majority for that
Sun's come out and the wind's dropped down here in deepest East Kent where we had been led to expect the apocalypse. Maybe this is the calm before the cliche.
Imagine being offended by that M&S Advert. I mean it. Seriously. Just try to twist your brain into a place where you look at that and see offence.
The modern world is depressing.
You'd have to have a seriously conspiratorial mind: would M&S really insert subliminal messages into their adverts picking a side in the Hamas/Israel conflict? Or does the mere possibility of interpretation offend, even if nothing malign was intended?
Of course the more Scottish seats Labour gain from the SNP, the fewer English seats they need to gain from the Conservatives, helping their path to a UK overall majority
Doesn't help them if they still have a minority of English constituencies, and the Tories have more.
Yes it does if Labour's new Scottish seats added to its English and Welsh seats combined are more than the Tories UK seats, even if the Tories still win more seats than Labour in England
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
I am waiting for the Fortnum & Mason advert.
Booths, Fortnum & Mason is very much style over quality...
Put it this way tonight I will be buying Fudge from the supplier to Fortnum and Masons / Harrods / Selfridges at about 20% of the price those shops sell it at....
Boots are OK, though they have closed their pharmacies in Ilford North (Barkingside), and opposite Parliament.
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
Really not so surprising. Major high street retailers need to be seen to be apolitical; newspapers wear their political leanings as a badge of honour.
If you can't spot that difference, you need to try a bit harder.
Hold on, in recent years high street retailerd have been anything but apolitical.
Also, the claims about Guardian aren't about its more Palestine friendly editorial stance than some newspapers, it is about the workplace culture having people being being openly hostile, laughing about antisemitism, posting that the massacre on 7th October was decolonisation....and the management team just shrugging.
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
John Major won a general election in 1992
I've heard it repeated here quite often now that Ulez expansion has been declared a rip roaring success. I assume the source for this 'news' is a TFL press release. Let's remind ourselves that its success or otherwise depends essentially on where you stood on it in the first place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/31/ulez-is-a-money-spinning-scam/ "So for every £3 claimed in Ulez payments this year, around £2 is going towards raising it. Given the experience of the congestion charge, we might expect this to fall towards £1 in every £3. Or maybe not, as cameras continue to be targeted by enraged activists. For comparison, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated the general administrative cost of raising taxes in the UK to be just over 1% in 2006, and thought this alarmingly expensive."
Its objectives were clean air, not fiscal. As I said at the time, a good policy, implemented badly and regressively.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
I am waiting for the Fortnum & Mason advert.
Booths, Fortnum & Mason is very much style over quality...
Put it this way tonight I will be buying Fudge from the supplier to Fortnum and Masons / Harrods / Selfridges at about 20% of the price those shops sell it at....
Boots are OK, though they have closed their pharmacies in Ilford North (Barkingside), and opposite Parliament.
Booths is the northern version of Waitrose with better quality stores and products...
Imagine being offended by that M&S Advert. I mean it. Seriously. Just try to twist your brain into a place where you look at that and see offence.
The modern world is depressing.
You'd have to have a seriously conspiratorial mind: would M&S really insert subliminal messages into their adverts picking a side in the Hamas/Israel conflict? Or does the mere possibility of interpretation offend, even if nothing malign was intended?
They'd also have to be psychic. The advert was filmed in August. Still, didn't stop them taking the opportunity to generate publicity for themselves. Whether all publicity is good publicity applies in this case, I'm not so sure.
Imagine being offended by that M&S Advert. I mean it. Seriously. Just try to twist your brain into a place where you look at that and see offence.
The modern world is depressing.
You'd have to have a seriously conspiratorial mind: would M&S really insert subliminal messages into their adverts picking a side in the Hamas/Israel conflict? Or does the mere possibility of interpretation offend, even if nothing malign was intended?
I would bet the advertising material for Christmas was done before 7th October, certainly the concepts.
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
John Major won a general election in 1992
I've heard it repeated here quite often now that Ulez expansion has been declared a rip roaring success. I assume the source for this 'news' is a TFL press release. Let's remind ourselves that its success or otherwise depends essentially on where you stood on it in the first place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/31/ulez-is-a-money-spinning-scam/ "So for every £3 claimed in Ulez payments this year, around £2 is going towards raising it. Given the experience of the congestion charge, we might expect this to fall towards £1 in every £3. Or maybe not, as cameras continue to be targeted by enraged activists. For comparison, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated the general administrative cost of raising taxes in the UK to be just over 1% in 2006, and thought this alarmingly expensive."
Its objectives were clean air, not fiscal. As I said at the time, a good policy, implemented badly and regressively.
LuckyGuy is very unfair. ULEZ may be the only Johnson/Con policy intiative that may have actually worked.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
John Major won a general election in 1992
Still the most popular politician in British history - according to votes cast in a GE. However, he's never going to be remembered for that is he? Like Johnson he'll be remembered for what he did with the opportunity.
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
John Major won a general election in 1992
I've heard it repeated here quite often now that Ulez expansion has been declared a rip roaring success. I assume the source for this 'news' is a TFL press release. Let's remind ourselves that its success or otherwise depends essentially on where you stood on it in the first place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/31/ulez-is-a-money-spinning-scam/ "So for every £3 claimed in Ulez payments this year, around £2 is going towards raising it. Given the experience of the congestion charge, we might expect this to fall towards £1 in every £3. Or maybe not, as cameras continue to be targeted by enraged activists. For comparison, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated the general administrative cost of raising taxes in the UK to be just over 1% in 2006, and thought this alarmingly expensive."
ULEZ would be even more of a success if they hadn't raised a single penny in fines.*
*It was actually the Tories who suggested it as a revenue raiser, big government swines.
Of course the more Scottish seats Labour gain from the SNP, the fewer English seats they need to gain from the Conservatives, helping their path to a UK overall majority
Doesn't help them if they still have a minority of English constituencies, and the Tories have more.
Yes it does if Labour's new Scottish seats added to its English and Welsh seats combined are more than the Tories UK seats, even if the Tories still win more seats than Labour in England
You're not thinking. In the latter case the Tories will have a massive cast iron grievance cocnerning any England-only legislation forced through by UK majorities. Made by themselves by their abiolition of EVEL, but that was obviously deliberate.
That’s fine. I don’t mind being a “fucking appeaser”. Just as long as you all admit I was right about the Ukraine war, which you do*
Honestly, this was why I introduced the “Law of Leon”. I was trying to save people from embarrassing themselves and disagreeing with me, because I am nearly always right about everything
And do I get any thanks for this?!
*honourable citations to @Dura_Ace and @DavidL who also, some time ago, had the wits to realise that maybe Ukraine wasn’t going to sweep through Crimea
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
Gosh, TSE, looks like you *really* hit a nerve among Sindy supporters.
I doubt it, same old regurgitated mince as ever
I'd hate to see what general indifference to a header looked like. Actually, that's not true, I'd be pretty indifferent.
It's interesting from a UK perspective because a bunch of Scottish seats makes Labour's chance of a majority significantly higher.
The question is whether Scottish Labour support and the general popularity of Labour at a UK-level are independent or not. I think they are, and I also think the same about the Scottish Tories.
So about the river to the sea being offensive and antisemitic I am astonished to learn that the current Israeli ambassador to the UK used that phrase back in 2015
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
I agree that the US and UK should keep supporting Ukraine, but the people/casualties thing is displacement activity.
Russia has had problems with recruitment/people from day one, but it's coped by recruiting mercenaries (Wagner) and prison battalions.
As you point out RUS is spread out, but it can redeploy forces to the South-West (Ukraine) from the East and South.
You are also correct that in the two-five year timeframe this will cause Russia problems, but Ukraine's problem is surviving the next six months.
Its post-counterattack strategy is to attrit forces until the Russians retreat, and it's got until March/May 2024 to do it.
If it doesn't work UKR will have wasted a year and created thousands of amputees to no good effect.
Sun's come out and the wind's dropped down here in deepest East Kent where we had been led to expect the apocalypse. Maybe this is the calm before the cliche.
Trees down by my vineyard. But the strongest winds were, as very accurately forecast by all the main models, in the channel and Northern France and grazing the Sussex coast.
The accuracy of models on this event has been very impressive, right down to the maximum gusts.
This is an example of why conflating Zionism / Israel with all Jewish people is a problem. In the name of defending Jewish people, a group of Jewish protesters are attacked by the Met Police for a peaceful protest that is not actually stopping anyone going about their business, where all they are doing is praying for peace:
On topic - I find it interesting that the SNP has had such a big fall in polling but the actual desire for Indy is still hovering around 45%. This could be partly the belief amongst some soft Indy voters that a Labour government is coming and they'd be happy with that, but it could also mean that Scots Labour may have to learn to live with a lot of Indy supporting members. As I've said before, SKS is not going into the next GE with particularly high approval ratings - it won't take much for him to become very unpopular very quickly (despite whatever majority he may have). If he and his government take a centre/right line on further devolution or Independence we could be back to square one again very quickly.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Well I'm certainly not a dad. However, if I'm accused of being centrist between Hamas and Netanyahu then I am delighted to plead guilty. That's why I think Starmer, for all his many faults, is handling this better than Mr Sunak and better than the 'cease fire' crowd. Because Hamas are not hiding the fact that they are not interested in a cease fire. They started this round of horror to get to just where we are now.
Calls for a cease fire by British politicians are 'performative' in that they will not save a single life in Gaza or the West Bank or Israel. Not one. The UK long ceased to carry that sort of weight in the Middle East. No-one there sees us as an honest broker.
However, that does not mean that such calls cannot have an effect. If Corbyn were still Lab leader then you'd get your pro-Hamas statements all right, nothing centrist about Jeremy, but the only impact would be here, in Britain. He would have walked straight into the buzz-saw being set for him by No 10 and the media.
Most of us would love to see a cease-fire in Gaza. However, I also understand why the Israelis are not interested. We are where we are - lots of people have died and lots more will die. Waving flags of any colours and chanting slogans will not change that. Its all rather too complicated for such simplistic solutions. I wish it was not but it is.
This is an example of why conflating Zionism / Israel with all Jewish people is a problem. In the name of defending Jewish people, a group of Jewish protesters are attacked by the Met Police for a peaceful protest that is not actually stopping anyone going about their business, where all they are doing is praying for peace:
How does this protect the British Jewish community?
Sigh.
In the event of an unplanned protest (not registered with the police in advance) blocking a transport route*, the policy is to remove *all* protestors, counter protestors, counter counter protestors and Piers Corbyn.
Essentially - when it becomes a problem, sweep them all away with big broom.
This is an example of why conflating Zionism / Israel with all Jewish people is a problem. In the name of defending Jewish people, a group of Jewish protesters are attacked by the Met Police for a peaceful protest that is not actually stopping anyone going about their business, where all they are doing is praying for peace:
How does this protect the British Jewish community?
Sigh.
In the event of an unplanned protest (not registered with the police in advance) blocking a transport route*, the policy is to remove *all* protestors, counter protestors, counter counter protestors and Piers Corbyn.
Essentially - when it becomes a problem, sweep them all away with big broom.
This has been policy since the year dot.
*other kinds of public nuisance are on the list
Seems fair enough. And the clip looks more like a demonstration to me than prayer.
“Since the start of the invasion, Ukraine has refused to release official counts of dead and wounded. But according to U.S. and European estimates, the toll has long surpassed 100,000 on each side of the war. It has eroded the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces so badly that draft offices have been forced to call up ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years. “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with,” says the close aide to Zelensky. “This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia.”
Now recruitment is way down. As conscription efforts have intensified around the country, stories are spreading on social media of draft officers pulling men off trains and buses and sending them to the front. Those with means sometimes bribe their way out of service, often by paying for a medical exemption. Such episodes of corruption within the recruitment system became so widespread by the end of the summer that on Aug. 11 Zelensky fired the heads of the draft offices in every region of the country.”
The corrupt quasi-gangster dudes making money out of draft dodgers are the guys I witnessed driving brand new Rolls Royce SUVs, in that luxury hotel in Chernivtsi in the summer. Close to the Romanian border
Sun's come out and the wind's dropped down here in deepest East Kent where we had been led to expect the apocalypse. Maybe this is the calm before the cliche.
Trees down by my vineyard. But the strongest winds were, as very accurately forecast by all the main models, in the channel and Northern France and grazing the Sussex coast.
The accuracy of models on this event has been very impressive, right down to the maximum gusts.
So why are all the schools shut in Southampton today when there is barely any wind?
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
John Major won a general election in 1992
I've heard it repeated here quite often now that Ulez expansion has been declared a rip roaring success. I assume the source for this 'news' is a TFL press release. Let's remind ourselves that its success or otherwise depends essentially on where you stood on it in the first place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/31/ulez-is-a-money-spinning-scam/ "So for every £3 claimed in Ulez payments this year, around £2 is going towards raising it. Given the experience of the congestion charge, we might expect this to fall towards £1 in every £3. Or maybe not, as cameras continue to be targeted by enraged activists. For comparison, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated the general administrative cost of raising taxes in the UK to be just over 1% in 2006, and thought this alarmingly expensive."
ULEZ would be even more of a success if they hadn't raised a single penny in fines.*
*It was actually the Tories who suggested it as a revenue raiser, big government swines.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Definitely a possible outcome.
I suspect the Ukrainians will go for another push over the winter - they have better kit than the Russians & can probably cope more effectively with the cold. ATACMS have (possibly) neutered the Russian use of helicopters as mobile missile launchers against Ukranian armour & the balance of artillery seems to be moving in favour of the Ukranians at the moment.
Against that, the Russians have dropped mine fields so dense in some places that you can’t move without stepping on a mine & breaching those is going to continue to be a complete shitshow.
If that push fails, then a frozen conflict is the likely outcome. Ukraine will get F16s armed with Meteors that will keep Russian airpower out of Ukranian airspace alongside western air defences; without air superiority neither side will be able to make progress. Russia will have wrecked the majority of their army, lost a flagship & a missile submarine to a country without a navy & be in a weakened state for a decade until they can rebuild lost materiel. The US will count that as a win & move on.
This is an example of why conflating Zionism / Israel with all Jewish people is a problem. In the name of defending Jewish people, a group of Jewish protesters are attacked by the Met Police for a peaceful protest that is not actually stopping anyone going about their business, where all they are doing is praying for peace:
How does this protect the British Jewish community?
Sigh.
In the event of an unplanned protest (not registered with the police in advance) blocking a transport route*, the policy is to remove *all* protestors, counter protestors, counter counter protestors and Piers Corbyn.
Essentially - when it becomes a problem, sweep them all away with big broom.
This has been policy since the year dot.
*other kinds of public nuisance are on the list
Seems fair enough. And the clip looks more like a demonstration to me than prayer.
When I was helping run the student Union, I helped organise demos. Given that most of them were for things I disagreed with, I took a pride in doing the job. Freedom of expression for my opponents etc.
The police were generally politely helpful. They were happy to point out the nutters of left and right trying to turn every demo in *their* riot.
Their complete lack of knowledge of the religious nutters was a stark contrast.
On topic - I find it interesting that the SNP has had such a big fall in polling but the actual desire for Indy is still hovering around 45%. This could be partly the belief amongst some soft Indy voters that a Labour government is coming and they'd be happy with that, but it could also mean that Scots Labour may have to learn to live with a lot of Indy supporting members. As I've said before, SKS is not going into the next GE with particularly high approval ratings - it won't take much for him to become very unpopular very quickly (despite whatever majority he may have). If he and his government take a centre/right line on further devolution or Independence we could be back to square one again very quickly.
Pretty sure a centre/right line on further devolution is bolted on for an SKS government, eg they currently oppose devolution of employment law to Scotland. I've said previously one of the bigger boosts for indy and/or the SNP would be a taste of no change Lab at Westminster. SLab cobbling together a Unionist coalition at Holyrood would be the jackpot, but on current polling that doesn't seem likely, probably even less so with the next Holyrood election not till 2026. Assuming the human race survives that long I don't think there are going to be a lot of happy bunnies anywhere at that point.
Gosh, TSE, looks like you *really* hit a nerve among Sindy supporters.
I doubt it, same old regurgitated mince as ever
I'd hate to see what general indifference to a header looked like. Actually, that's not true, I'd be pretty indifferent.
It's interesting from a UK perspective because a bunch of Scottish seats makes Labour's chance of a majority significantly higher.
The question is whether Scottish Labour support and the general popularity of Labour at a UK-level are independent or not. I think they are, and I also think the same about the Scottish Tories.
Either totally deluded or totally stupid, they are sock puppets who are told what to do and say and slapped down if not kowtowing sufficiently.
Comments
Random example: my personal trainer was complaining that her 23 y.o. son (warehouse operator in Asda) now earns the same as her per hour.
- At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
- The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
- In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
- The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.What I can't work out, is whether it's bias towards Palestine (featuring the colours of Palestinian flag) or against Palestine (burning the Palestinian flag) or towards Palestine (the burning of the colours indicating the devastation visited on Gaza by Israel).
Please advise so I can be outraged in the correct direction.
"Andrew Gimson's conference sketch: Christian conservatives declare their faith in a better, kinder, wiser politics | Conservative Home" https://conservativehome.com/2023/11/01/andrew-gimsons-conference-sketch-christian-conservatives-declare-their-faith-in-a-better-kinder-wiser-politics/
A Marks and Spencer's Palestinian flag.
What better way to commemorate the birth of the original Palestinian seeker of asylum (or at least a cosy manger)?
It wasn't me I was referring to.
A hung parliament with the LibDems blocking Starmer's new town bollocks and pressing him on environmental issues wouldn't be a bad result.
Russia cannot build at the speed required to replace losses. Even if they could, what they are producing have been shown to be poor quaity weapons, not able to defeat thousand dollar drones. Deployed - and destroyed. The woeful performance of Russian weaponry has been a disastrous advert for their arms industry. Their mechanised brigades are rusting hulks strewn across the border. These include many that were destined for export, but were seconded to the front. Hard to imagine the buyers will wait untold years for their replacements to be available.
Bear in mind, Ukraine was at the heart of the Soviet arms industry. Their ability to adapt and create, especially with drones, has shown they still have much expertise. They are developing their own long range rocket options to attack inside Russia, destroying facilities, stockpiles, barracks and airfields currently off limits to Western supplied weapons. If they get these up and running by the spring, expect Russia to find life a whole lot tougher to fight a war outside its borders.
Which prevented a winnable referendum being called, wameron and Clegg standing side by side to vote for Remain.
By 2016, the issue had become so toxic that we ended up with Brexit.
Great job, LibDems.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
Note that Hamas not using these drones is another sign 7th October took Iran by surprise.
The modern world is depressing.
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
Put it this way tonight I will be buying Fudge from the supplier to Fortnum and Masons / Harrods / Selfridges at about 20% of the price those shops sell it at....
5,448 GraceHopper superchips and 200PFLOPS gets you somewhere in the global public top ten
https://www.theregister.com/2023/11/01/uk_isambard_supercomputer/
The AI summit gave more details of a system previously announced, but good news.
If you can't spot that difference, you need to try a bit harder.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/31/ulez-is-a-money-spinning-scam/
"So for every £3 claimed in Ulez payments this year, around £2 is going towards raising it. Given the experience of the congestion charge, we might expect this to fall towards £1 in every £3. Or maybe not, as cameras continue to be targeted by enraged activists. For comparison, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated the general administrative cost of raising taxes in the UK to be just over 1% in 2006, and thought this alarmingly expensive."
Also, the claims about Guardian aren't about its more Palestine friendly editorial stance than some newspapers, it is about the workplace culture having people being being openly hostile, laughing about antisemitism, posting that the massacre on 7th October was decolonisation....and the management team just shrugging.
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grace_Hopper
The creator of one of the first, if not the first, compiler, and also probably the origin of the term 'bug'. The bug is preserved...
Go watch Threads again you ludicrous soaked up popinjay.
Of course, the consequence of that people don't want to deal with, so lets keep on fighting.
*It was actually the Tories who suggested it as a revenue raiser, big government swines.
Actually, that's not true, I'd be pretty indifferent.
Honestly, this was why I introduced the “Law of Leon”. I was trying to save people from embarrassing themselves and disagreeing with me, because I am nearly always right about everything
And do I get any thanks for this?!
*honourable citations to @Dura_Ace and @DavidL who also, some time ago, had the wits to realise that maybe Ukraine wasn’t going to sweep through Crimea
The question is whether Scottish Labour support and the general popularity of Labour at a UK-level are independent or not. I think they are, and I also think the same about the Scottish Tories.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/11624355/World-should-recognise-Israels-historic-claim-to-land-from-river-to-sea-minister-says.html
The accuracy of models on this event has been very impressive, right down to the maximum gusts.
https://x.com/BlackJewishA/status/1720008869051617644?s=20
How does this protect the British Jewish community?
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Well I'm certainly not a dad. However, if I'm accused of being centrist between Hamas and Netanyahu then I am delighted to plead guilty. That's why I think Starmer, for all his many faults, is handling this better than Mr Sunak and better than the 'cease fire' crowd. Because Hamas are not hiding the fact that they are not interested in a cease fire. They started this round of horror to get to just where we are now.
Calls for a cease fire by British politicians are 'performative' in that they will not save a single life in Gaza or the West Bank or Israel. Not one. The UK long ceased to carry that sort of weight in the Middle East. No-one there sees us as an honest broker.
However, that does not mean that such calls cannot have an effect. If Corbyn were still Lab leader then you'd get your pro-Hamas statements all right, nothing centrist about Jeremy, but the only impact would be here, in Britain. He would have walked straight into the buzz-saw being set for him by No 10 and the media.
Most of us would love to see a cease-fire in Gaza. However, I also understand why the Israelis are not interested. We are where we are - lots of people have died and lots more will die. Waving flags of any colours and chanting slogans will not change that. Its all rather too complicated for such simplistic solutions. I wish it was not but it is.
That said, it is an utterly absurd extreme example of the outrage bus. I just cannot understand some people’s mentality.
In the event of an unplanned protest (not registered with the police in advance) blocking a transport route*, the policy is to remove *all* protestors, counter protestors, counter counter protestors and Piers Corbyn.
Essentially - when it becomes a problem, sweep them all away with big broom.
This has been policy since the year dot.
*other kinds of public nuisance are on the list
“Since the start of the invasion, Ukraine has refused to release official counts of dead and wounded. But according to U.S. and European estimates, the toll has long surpassed 100,000 on each side of the war. It has eroded the ranks of Ukraine’s armed forces so badly that draft offices have been forced to call up ever older personnel, raising the average age of a soldier in Ukraine to around 43 years. “They’re grown men now, and they aren’t that healthy to begin with,” says the close aide to Zelensky. “This is Ukraine. Not Scandinavia.”
Now recruitment is way down. As conscription efforts have intensified around the country, stories are spreading on social media of draft officers pulling men off trains and buses and sending them to the front. Those with means sometimes bribe their way out of service, often by paying for a medical exemption. Such episodes of corruption within the recruitment system became so widespread by the end of the summer that on Aug. 11 Zelensky fired the heads of the draft offices in every region of the country.”
The corrupt quasi-gangster dudes making money out of draft dodgers are the guys I witnessed driving brand new Rolls Royce SUVs, in that luxury hotel in
Chernivtsi in the summer. Close to the Romanian border
Oh...
February 27, 2022 Leon said:
Nuclear war it is, then
I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
I suspect the Ukrainians will go for another push over the winter - they have better kit than the Russians & can probably cope more effectively with the cold. ATACMS have (possibly) neutered the Russian use of helicopters as mobile missile launchers against Ukranian armour & the balance of artillery seems to be moving in favour of the Ukranians at the moment.
Against that, the Russians have dropped mine fields so dense in some places that you can’t move without stepping on a mine & breaching those is going to continue to be a complete shitshow.
If that push fails, then a frozen conflict is the likely outcome. Ukraine will get F16s armed with Meteors that will keep Russian airpower out of Ukranian airspace alongside western air defences; without air superiority neither side will be able to make progress. Russia will have wrecked the majority of their army, lost a flagship & a missile submarine to a country without a navy & be in a weakened state for a decade until they can rebuild lost materiel. The US will count that as a win & move on.
The police were generally politely helpful. They were happy to point out the nutters of left and right trying to turn every demo in *their* riot.
Their complete lack of knowledge of the religious nutters was a stark contrast.
I've said previously one of the bigger boosts for indy and/or the SNP would be a taste of no change Lab at Westminster. SLab cobbling together a Unionist coalition at Holyrood would be the jackpot, but on current polling that doesn't seem likely, probably even less so with the next Holyrood election not till 2026. Assuming the human race survives that long I don't think there are going to be a lot of happy bunnies anywhere at that point.