Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Gosh, TSE, looks like you *really* hit a nerve among Sindy supporters.
I doubt it, same old regurgitated mince as ever
I'd hate to see what general indifference to a header looked like. Actually, that's not true, I'd be pretty indifferent.
It's interesting from a UK perspective because a bunch of Scottish seats makes Labour's chance of a majority significantly higher.
The question is whether Scottish Labour support and the general popularity of Labour at a UK-level are independent or not. I think they are, and I also think the same about the Scottish Tories.
It's interesting for many reasons. The birth of a new state is always interesting; when that new state is carved out of the one that most of us actually live in, well, that makes it at least doubly so. Even if it were to have no impact at all on the lives of the rest of us it would be interesting - and I think we can be assured that the impact would be somewhere above nil.
Personally, I find it fascinating that even now - as the practical case for Sindy looks more and more tricky and full of unanswered questions (deficit? currency? relationship with rUK? relationship with the rest of Europe? defence?*) - Yes is still at 45%. That's a lot of people in favour of quite an uncertain future.
What this illustrates to me is that the hearts and minds battle (I was going to say argument, but that implies a battle of logic, which it explicitly is not) is far, far, far more important than the practical one. Yes has a very strong, simple hearts and minds argument; No does not. (This is not an inevitability. Take a stroll around Edinburgh; look at the layout of the New Town, the names of the streets and buildings, and reflect on the way in which the unionist side comprehensively won the hearts and minds battle in Georgian times.) This is interesting in itself, and also for the wider lessons we should draw from it for analagous situations elsewhere in the world.
It also illustrates the strength of the idea of the nation state. The desire for the state to equal the nation is a strong one. (There was - certainly in comparison to most states - only quite a half-arsed attempt at nation-building in the history of the UK.)
It's also interesting to reflect on the concept of the nation. What makes a nation a nation? The answer is that it thinks of itself as one. But how does this come about, and why, and how consistently, and to what extent does this tally with the Welsh notion of gwlad? Where stirs the heart; where feels like home?
So yes - interesting header; interesting topic.
*Of course, in the event of Sindy there would BE answers to all of these questions - we just don't yet really know what they are, nor how palatable they would be. My view is that the whole thing would work itself out in the end, but it would be a bumpy ride to get there. ROI provides an example of a successful small independent post-British nation, but also provides an example of a very bumpy ride to get to it - though of course history never repeats itself exactly or, necessarily, at all.
Do Man Utd fans ever wonder that they should have given Moyes a bit more of a chance?
It's not the team manager that's the problem Man Utd.
If Guardiola, or Klopp, had been stupid enough to take the job then they would have failed, because the club as a whole is dysfunctional, and its assets being sweated.
Do Man Utd fans ever wonder that they should have given Moyes a bit more of a chance?
It's not the team manager that's the problem Man Utd.
If Guardiola, or Klopp, had been stupid enough to take the job then they would have failed, because the club as a whole is dysfunctional, and its assets being sweated.
Klopp turned down the Manchester United job in 2014.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
SG was preparing to offload troops in Fitzroy. Argentine Skyhawks bombed her. Lots of sailors/soldiers died. Simon Weston, despite severe facial injuries, thankfully survived. Chiu Yiu-Nam got the George Cross and Captain Phil Roberts got the DSO.
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
John Major won a general election in 1992
I've heard it repeated here quite often now that Ulez expansion has been declared a rip roaring success. I assume the source for this 'news' is a TFL press release. Let's remind ourselves that its success or otherwise depends essentially on where you stood on it in the first place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/31/ulez-is-a-money-spinning-scam/ "So for every £3 claimed in Ulez payments this year, around £2 is going towards raising it. Given the experience of the congestion charge, we might expect this to fall towards £1 in every £3. Or maybe not, as cameras continue to be targeted by enraged activists. For comparison, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated the general administrative cost of raising taxes in the UK to be just over 1% in 2006, and thought this alarmingly expensive."
ULEZ would be even more of a success if they hadn't raised a single penny in fines.*
*It was actually the Tories who suggested it as a revenue raiser, big government swines.
A big boy did it and ran away.
There is a darker point here about public services.
In Scotland, for example, SG grants to Local Government have been cut in real terms and council tax has been frozen, all while the services that LAs have a statutory duty to provide have increased.
Motoring is one of the very few areas LAs can raise revenue, so of course councils turn to fines to fund essential services. Even then, the SG legislated to freeze parking fines so they have been massively cut in real terms.
The "war on drivers" is at least as much a necessity for LG as a policy objective representing their constituents.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The war isn't going to end because either side runs out of people. Military equipment and ammunition will run out first.
The supplies Russia is now receiving from North Korea are a crucial factor in prolonging the war. If these are simply rebadged supplies from China then Ukraine has a serious problem.
Ukraine will get F16s armed with Meteors that will keep Russian airpower out of Ukranian airspace alongside western air defences; .
Meteor doesn't work on F-16. UkrAF are (eventually) getting ex-RNLAF F-16A Block 10B jets that have been through the MLU upgrade program so AIM-120D is the weapon of choice. The 120D is a fucking death-ray with very good range and off boresight capability but nobody has said how many or even if they are getting it.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
That’s fine. I don’t mind being a “fucking appeaser”. Just as long as you all admit I was right about the Ukraine war, which you do*
Honestly, this was why I introduced the “Law of Leon”. I was trying to save people from embarrassing themselves and disagreeing with me, because I am nearly always right about everything
And do I get any thanks for this?!
*honourable citations to @Dura_Ace and @DavidL who also, some time ago, had the wits to realise that maybe Ukraine wasn’t going to sweep through Crimea
Yes. I'm writing this in my nuclear bunker nervously awaiting the all clear signal before emerging into the irradiated hellhole you confidently predicted most of last year and somewhat beyond. But at least, given all the available landmarks having been destroyed, I will still be able to use What3Words to navigate, and be confident that Liz Truss will "surprise on the upside" in guiding us to recovery.
One Life, a new film about saving Jewish children from Nazis, is now being advertised. Missing the point, I know, but is that the worst Esther Rantzen impression ever? https://www.warnerbros.co.uk/movies/one-life
The film is based round the efforts of Sir Nicholas Winton and the Kindertransport commemorated at Liverpool Street Station, as @Sunil_Prasannan reminded us after the demo there. Here's the real Nick and Esther on That's Life between dogs saying sausages and rude carrots. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqqbM1B-mPY
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Odd too that Israel blocked America from supplying Iron Dome anti-missile systems to Ukraine. War makes strange bedfellows.
I'm not sure 'predicting a stalemate' in Ukraine was ever quite the outlier being claimed.
Well, I got called all kinds of names - from “fucking appeaser” to “Putinist shill” and on and on - for first broaching the idea, so it certainly felt quite outlying. As ever, I don’t remember you saying anything interesting at all
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
John Major won a general election in 1992
I've heard it repeated here quite often now that Ulez expansion has been declared a rip roaring success. I assume the source for this 'news' is a TFL press release. Let's remind ourselves that its success or otherwise depends essentially on where you stood on it in the first place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/31/ulez-is-a-money-spinning-scam/ "So for every £3 claimed in Ulez payments this year, around £2 is going towards raising it. Given the experience of the congestion charge, we might expect this to fall towards £1 in every £3. Or maybe not, as cameras continue to be targeted by enraged activists. For comparison, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated the general administrative cost of raising taxes in the UK to be just over 1% in 2006, and thought this alarmingly expensive."
Its objectives were clean air, not fiscal. As I said at the time, a good policy, implemented badly and regressively.
If the objective were cleaner air, particularly in places where air pollution has been most acute, there are many other less disruptive solutions that could have been put in place. This was designed to swell TFL's coffers and it should be judged on that basis.
Ukraine will get F16s armed with Meteors that will keep Russian airpower out of Ukranian airspace alongside western air defences; .
Meteor doesn't work on F-16. UkrAF are (eventually) getting ex-RNLAF F-16A Block 10B jets that have been through the MLU upgrade program so AIM-120D is the weapon of choice. The 120D is a fucking death-ray with very good range and off boresight capability but nobody has said how many or even if they are getting it.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Odd too that Israel blocked America from supplying Iron Dome anti-missile systems to Ukraine. War makes strange bedfellows.
I don't think that's really relevant to my comment. But as I said before when you raise that; given their expenditure rate of Iron Dome, I bet Israel are glad they didn't give permission...
I'm not sure 'predicting a stalemate' in Ukraine was ever quite the outlier being claimed.
Well, I got called all kinds of names - from “fucking appeaser” to “Putinist shill” and on and on - for first broaching the idea, so it certainly felt quite outlying. As ever, I don’t remember you saying anything interesting at all
Yes, I sense you're reacting to that, the name calling, rather than actually claiming any sort of 'against the herd' prediction (since it wasn't). Feelings were understandably bruised.
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
I am waiting for the Fortnum & Mason advert.
Booths, Fortnum & Mason is very much style over quality...
Put it this way tonight I will be buying Fudge from the supplier to Fortnum and Masons / Harrods / Selfridges at about 20% of the price those shops sell it at....
Boots are OK, though they have closed their pharmacies in Ilford North (Barkingside), and opposite Parliament.
Booths is the northern version of Waitrose with better quality stores and products...
Love Booths - one of the joys of a lake district holiday for me (sounds sad, but its the small things!)
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Cuckoo.
Russia are conscripting anybody who stays behind in Eastern Ukraine making them fight against their own countrymen or be shot. Anyone who isn't conscripted is being shot or moved to a completely different region away from Ukraine.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
It all makes sense when you realise these people don't actually give a shit about Palestinians, or Russians.
Its simply an enemy of my enemy is my friend attitude, and their enemy . . . is us, the free, civilised, democratic west.
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
I am waiting for the Fortnum & Mason advert.
Booths, Fortnum & Mason is very much style over quality...
Put it this way tonight I will be buying Fudge from the supplier to Fortnum and Masons / Harrods / Selfridges at about 20% of the price those shops sell it at....
Boots are OK, though they have closed their pharmacies in Ilford North (Barkingside), and opposite Parliament.
Booths is the northern version of Waitrose with better quality stores and products...
Love Booths - one of the joys of a lake district holiday for me (sounds sad, but its the small things!)
My wife's favourite part of a holiday is a visit to a local supermarket - you can tell a lot about a city / country from the food being sold...
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Compliance!
Ah thanks. Let's hope both occupations end one day. We need a 'river to the sea' type slogan for Ukraine, I think. Or maybe there is one.
Just want to check, am I still a “fucking appeaser” for having been right, all along, about the Ukraine war?
Yes, well done on having predicted a stalemate throughout.
Oh... February 27, 2022 Leon said: Nuclear war it is, then I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Ambrose Evans Pritchard is sometimes said to have predicted 1,436 of the last 2 recessions.
He's predicted the German Supreme Court ruling the actions of the EU illegal and the subsequent consequential collapse of the EU way more times than that. He is a joke who often has interesting statistics which don't usually mean what he thought.
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
John Major won a general election in 1992
I've heard it repeated here quite often now that Ulez expansion has been declared a rip roaring success. I assume the source for this 'news' is a TFL press release. Let's remind ourselves that its success or otherwise depends essentially on where you stood on it in the first place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/31/ulez-is-a-money-spinning-scam/ "So for every £3 claimed in Ulez payments this year, around £2 is going towards raising it. Given the experience of the congestion charge, we might expect this to fall towards £1 in every £3. Or maybe not, as cameras continue to be targeted by enraged activists. For comparison, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated the general administrative cost of raising taxes in the UK to be just over 1% in 2006, and thought this alarmingly expensive."
ULEZ would be even more of a success if they hadn't raised a single penny in fines.*
*It was actually the Tories who suggested it as a revenue raiser, big government swines.
A big boy did it and ran away.
There is a darker point here about public services.
In Scotland, for example, SG grants to Local Government have been cut in real terms and council tax has been frozen, all while the services that LAs have a statutory duty to provide have increased.
Motoring is one of the very few areas LAs can raise revenue, so of course councils turn to fines to fund essential services. Even then, the SG legislated to freeze parking fines so they have been massively cut in real terms.
The "war on drivers" is at least as much a necessity for LG as a policy objective representing their constituents.
Parking fines have increased from £60 to £100 for various councils including Edinburgh. Surprised you didn't know that.
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
I am waiting for the Fortnum & Mason advert.
Booths, Fortnum & Mason is very much style over quality...
Put it this way tonight I will be buying Fudge from the supplier to Fortnum and Masons / Harrods / Selfridges at about 20% of the price those shops sell it at....
Boots are OK, though they have closed their pharmacies in Ilford North (Barkingside), and opposite Parliament.
You from the south, Sunil?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booths for enlightenment - it's been called "the Waitrose of the North" which is a bit weird, as Waitrose is surely the Waitrose of the North.
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
John Major won a general election in 1992
I've heard it repeated here quite often now that Ulez expansion has been declared a rip roaring success. I assume the source for this 'news' is a TFL press release. Let's remind ourselves that its success or otherwise depends essentially on where you stood on it in the first place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/31/ulez-is-a-money-spinning-scam/ "So for every £3 claimed in Ulez payments this year, around £2 is going towards raising it. Given the experience of the congestion charge, we might expect this to fall towards £1 in every £3. Or maybe not, as cameras continue to be targeted by enraged activists. For comparison, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated the general administrative cost of raising taxes in the UK to be just over 1% in 2006, and thought this alarmingly expensive."
Its objectives were clean air, not fiscal. As I said at the time, a good policy, implemented badly and regressively.
If the objective were cleaner air, particularly in places where air pollution has been most acute, there are many other less disruptive solutions that could have been put in place. This was designed to swell TFL's coffers and it should be judged on that basis.
The objective is a camera network that will eventually allow road pricing for ALL vehicles. That is why it was set up the way it was, and why people are so against it despite very few having cars that are affected by the current charge.
Eventually, the poorest will simply be priced off the roads.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Compliance!
Ah thanks. Let's hope both occupations end one day. We need a 'river to the sea' type slogan for Ukraine, I think. Or maybe there is one.
From the Dniepr to the Donbass, Ukraine will be one!
Just want to check, am I still a “fucking appeaser” for having been right, all along, about the Ukraine war?
Yes, well done on having predicted a stalemate throughout.
Oh... February 27, 2022 Leon said: Nuclear war it is, then I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Ambrose Evans Pritchard is sometimes said to have predicted 1,436 of the last 2 recessions.
He's predicted the German Supreme Court ruling the actions of the EU illegal and the subsequent consequential collapse of the EU way more times than that. He is a joke who often has interesting statistics which don't usually mean what he thought.
He's a useful calibration tool, if you read something he writes and think "I was thinking the opposite" then you know you're on the right track.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Compliance!
Ah thanks. Let's hope both occupations end one day. We need a 'river to the sea' type slogan for Ukraine, I think. Or maybe there is one.
Is 'occupation' the best way to describe the status of Gaza before October 7th? If it were occupied, they wouldn't now need to invade it.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
That does rather prove my point - Ukraine can call on fighters from across the age range as well as both sexes. The fact that Russia is trying to recruit women reinforces the fact that they are running out of able-bodied men at a rapid rate.
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
I am waiting for the Fortnum & Mason advert.
Booths, Fortnum & Mason is very much style over quality...
Put it this way tonight I will be buying Fudge from the supplier to Fortnum and Masons / Harrods / Selfridges at about 20% of the price those shops sell it at....
Boots are OK, though they have closed their pharmacies in Ilford North (Barkingside), and opposite Parliament.
You from the south, Sunil?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booths for enlightenment - it's been called "the Waitrose of the North" which is a bit weird, as Waitrose is surely the Waitrose of the North.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Compliance!
Ah thanks. Let's hope both occupations end one day. We need a 'river to the sea' type slogan for Ukraine, I think. Or maybe there is one.
What occupation of Gaza?
Israeli troops are going into Gaza now, because they weren't there before. The occupation of Gaza ended in 2005.
And before someone brings up the blockade of Gaza, that only came about (and was entirely justified) after Hamas took over Gaza. In-between the occupation of Gaza ending in 2005 and the rise of Hamas, Israel was encouraging Palestinians to develop the Port of Gaza and become more self-sufficient. Its a shame Hamas then took over and destroyed all that.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Compliance!
Ah thanks. Let's hope both occupations end one day. We need a 'river to the sea' type slogan for Ukraine, I think. Or maybe there is one.
Is 'occupation' the best way to describe the status of Gaza before October 7th? If it were occupied, they wouldn't now need to invade it.
Israel controlled Gaza's airspace and territorial waters.
The Campaign Against Antisemitism has posted this update about their van showing pictures of kidnapped children that was stopped by the police. (Whatever happened to the 140-character limit?)
Exactly two weeks ago on 18th October, @MetPoliceUK pulled over our billboard vans twice, ordering the drivers to clear out of central London and stop displaying the faces of Israeli children kidnapped by Hamas.
Here’s an update on that:
• After we released our video of the incident on 19th October, the Met issued two statements the same night promising to “engage” with us.
• We were contacted by Jewish officers at the Met who have nothing to do with police misconduct to arrange a meeting with a police Commander whose job is to investigate it.
• On 20th October, the Commander met us but would not discuss the incident because it was under investigation. During the meeting, the Met released a statement saying that it would permit the genocidal “From the river to the sea” chant in London, but the Commander could not discuss that either. We asked for confirmation that the Met would not interfere further with our billboard vans. He promised to get back to us. We have not heard from him again.
• On 21st October, over 100,000 people coursed though London. In addition to the “From the river to the sea chant”, there were calls for jihad and numerous expressions of support for terrorism, as well as incitement to religious hatred. From its @MetPoliceEvents account, the Met explained why various criminal offences were not actually criminal offences.
• On 25th October, 1,000 of us demonstrated outside New Scotland Yard calling for the police to enforce the law. Prior to the demonstration, @MetPoliceEvents posted that the Met would be engaging and working closely with us. We instructed @AssersonLaw to contact the Met asking why they had still not explained their action in shutting down our billboard vans, despite the promises of engagement, and seeking an apology.
• On 28th October, there was another enormous demonstration through London. People called for an “Intifada” (campaign of violence) from “London to Gaza” along with chants in Arabic warning Jews that “The army of Mohammed is returning” and announcing that they would give their “blood and souls”.
• On 29th October, Met Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley told Sky News that the marches had gone off well, and that his officers were right to shut down our billboard vans.
• Yesterday we bought a billboard van as no billboard van rental company was willing to rent to us and risk a confrontation with the police.
My musing this morning is whether Rishi Sunak is the unluckiest General since ... I don't know ... John Major?
On top of all the failed Hail Mary passes, including the "Long Term Decisions (LOL) for a Brighter Future", and ULEZ showing signs of working better than I for one was expecting, is Rishi now going to have continual revelations of the moral turpitude of the Governments he served in as the soundtrack to the period from now to the General Election?
Smacking slightly of a man trying to use the paddle inside his own canoe, knocking holes in the bottom.
Thanks for the header. Tory share in Scotland ticking up slightly? Hmmm.
John Major won a general election in 1992
I've heard it repeated here quite often now that Ulez expansion has been declared a rip roaring success. I assume the source for this 'news' is a TFL press release. Let's remind ourselves that its success or otherwise depends essentially on where you stood on it in the first place.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/31/ulez-is-a-money-spinning-scam/ "So for every £3 claimed in Ulez payments this year, around £2 is going towards raising it. Given the experience of the congestion charge, we might expect this to fall towards £1 in every £3. Or maybe not, as cameras continue to be targeted by enraged activists. For comparison, the Institute for Fiscal Studies estimated the general administrative cost of raising taxes in the UK to be just over 1% in 2006, and thought this alarmingly expensive."
ULEZ would be even more of a success if they hadn't raised a single penny in fines.*
*It was actually the Tories who suggested it as a revenue raiser, big government swines.
A big boy did it and ran away.
There is a darker point here about public services.
In Scotland, for example, SG grants to Local Government have been cut in real terms and council tax has been frozen, all while the services that LAs have a statutory duty to provide have increased.
Motoring is one of the very few areas LAs can raise revenue, so of course councils turn to fines to fund essential services. Even then, the SG legislated to freeze parking fines so they have been massively cut in real terms.
The "war on drivers" is at least as much a necessity for LG as a policy objective representing their constituents.
Parking fines have increased from £60 to £100 for various councils including Edinburgh. Surprised you didn't know that.
I did. It's a recent change by the SG to allow it, along with the upcoming pavement parking ban (catching up with London which has it since 1974).
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
I'm not sure the intersection of the Venn diagram is that large. I'm at least as irate about the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the Israeli invasion of Gaza. In an ideal world, Putin and Netanyahu would both end up at the Hague alongside the leaders of Hamas. Fat chance though.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
Didn't they conscript every able bodied man between 18 and 65?
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
I'm not sure the intersection of the Venn diagram is that large. I'm at least as irate about the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the Israeli invasion of Gaza. In an ideal world, Putin and Netanyahu would both end up at the Hague alongside the leaders of Hamas.
I'm confused, Kinabalu reckons there's an ongoing occupation of Gaza, you reckon Netanyahu is invading Gaza.
Yours at least makes sense, since they weren't in Gaza and are going in now, but since Hamas declared war and attacked them and they're only defending themselves by going back after Hamas (which is entirely legal) why would anyone from Israel end up at the Hague?
Destroying Hamas is an entirely legitimate war goal.
If Hamas use human shields, then the Geneva Convention says that Hamas are committing the war crime there and Israel are entitled to kill human shields to get to Hamas.
On topic - I find it interesting that the SNP has had such a big fall in polling but the actual desire for Indy is still hovering around 45%. This could be partly the belief amongst some soft Indy voters that a Labour government is coming and they'd be happy with that, but it could also mean that Scots Labour may have to learn to live with a lot of Indy supporting members. As I've said before, SKS is not going into the next GE with particularly high approval ratings - it won't take much for him to become very unpopular very quickly (despite whatever majority he may have). If he and his government take a centre/right line on further devolution or Independence we could be back to square one again very quickly.
Pretty sure a centre/right line on further devolution is bolted on for an SKS government, eg they currently oppose devolution of employment law to Scotland. I've said previously one of the bigger boosts for indy and/or the SNP would be a taste of no change Lab at Westminster. SLab cobbling together a Unionist coalition at Holyrood would be the jackpot, but on current polling that doesn't seem likely, probably even less so with the next Holyrood election not till 2026. Assuming the human race survives that long I don't think there are going to be a lot of happy bunnies anywhere at that point.
No the Scottish left are still largely voting SNP, it is the centre who have gone Labour.
On current Holyrood polls the Tories would have the balance of power at Holyrood in 2026 and so obviously that means no Holyrood indyref2 majority and any legislation needing Tory support to get through. On that basis we could end up with the next Scottish government right of the next UK government
It's 4.05 long, while YMCA by the Village people is 4.02.
If you mute the audio on the above clip, and start playing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CS9OO0S5w2k at exactly the same time as starting the video, it syncs up perfectly, providing a hearty chuckle.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
Didn't they conscript every able bodied man between 18 and 65?
So why wouldn't the average age be middle aged?
They didn't only conscript 18-25 year olds.
This is quite an exceptionally stupid remark, even by your own standards
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Odd too that Israel blocked America from supplying Iron Dome anti-missile systems to Ukraine. War makes strange bedfellows.
I don't think that's really relevant to my comment. But as I said before when you raise that; given their expenditure rate of Iron Dome, I bet Israel are glad they didn't give permission...
America was not proposing to move kit protecting Israel. The point is that Israel was studiedly neutral in the Russia/Ukraine conflict. That is ironic, especially if you see an equivalence between these two wars.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
Well I'm not pro Russian. Or pro Putin rather (since it is he).
As for where it's going with Gaza, I'm extremely pessimistic. I think the deathtoll, suffering and displacement of innocent Palestinians is going to be off the scale. A typical 'par score' ratio of Palestinian/Israeli casualties is about 20/1 and this time we have as the trigger the 7th Oct Hamas atrocity (which was of a size and barbarity not seen before) and we have the dreadful Netanyahu in place. So I think a terrible vengeance is going to play out, come what may. Hope I'm wrong and 'politics' muscles into the equation fairly soon as a dampener on things.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
I'm not sure the intersection of the Venn diagram is that large. I'm at least as irate about the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the Israeli invasion of Gaza. In an ideal world, Putin and Netanyahu would both end up at the Hague alongside the leaders of Hamas.
I'm confused, Kinabalu reckons there's an ongoing occupation of Gaza, you reckon Netanyahu is invading Gaza.
Yours at least makes sense, since they weren't in Gaza and are going in now, but since Hamas declared war and attacked them and they're only defending themselves by going back after Hamas (which is entirely legal) why would anyone from Israel end up at the Hague?
Destroying Hamas is an entirely legitimate war goal.
If Hamas use human shields, then the Geneva Convention says that Hamas are committing the war crime there and Israel are entitled to kill human shields to get to Hamas.
I'm pretty sure the Geneva convention doesn't say that anyone has the right to kill human shields.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Odd too that Israel blocked America from supplying Iron Dome anti-missile systems to Ukraine. War makes strange bedfellows.
I don't think that's really relevant to my comment. But as I said before when you raise that; given their expenditure rate of Iron Dome, I bet Israel are glad they didn't give permission...
America was not proposing to move kit protecting Israel. The point is that Israel was studiedly neutral in the Russia/Ukraine conflict. That is ironic, especially if you see an equivalence between these two wars.
Yes, and I criticised Israel's stance even before the recent tragic events. But Israel now needs those two batteries that the US wanted to give to Ukraine.
An interesting question is why the US never used those batteries anywhere.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
Didn't they conscript every able bodied man between 18 and 65?
So why wouldn't the average age be middle aged?
They didn't only conscript 18-25 year olds.
This is quite an exceptionally stupid remark, even by your own standards
Perhaps you can show me the error of my ways?
The median age in Ukraine is 44.7, they said all able bodied adults should join the military and could be conscripted to defend the nation, they banned anyone male 18-65 from leaving the country as they should be in the military instead.
Now the average age is 43. Below the median age of 44.7.
So the average is close to the average, and you find that shocking? Why?
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Cuckoo.
Russia are conscripting anybody who stays behind in Eastern Ukraine making them fight against their own countrymen or be shot. Anyone who isn't conscripted is being shot or moved to a completely different region away from Ukraine.
The people in Gaza . . . are still in Gaza.
Hang on let me check if you're still in the Fridge on this one.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
I'm not sure the intersection of the Venn diagram is that large. I'm at least as irate about the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the Israeli invasion of Gaza. In an ideal world, Putin and Netanyahu would both end up at the Hague alongside the leaders of Hamas.
I'm confused, Kinabalu reckons there's an ongoing occupation of Gaza, you reckon Netanyahu is invading Gaza.
Yours at least makes sense, since they weren't in Gaza and are going in now, but since Hamas declared war and attacked them and they're only defending themselves by going back after Hamas (which is entirely legal) why would anyone from Israel end up at the Hague?
Destroying Hamas is an entirely legitimate war goal.
If Hamas use human shields, then the Geneva Convention says that Hamas are committing the war crime there and Israel are entitled to kill human shields to get to Hamas.
I'm pretty sure the Geneva convention doesn't say that anyone has the right to kill human shields.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
I'm not sure the intersection of the Venn diagram is that large. I'm at least as irate about the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the Israeli invasion of Gaza. In an ideal world, Putin and Netanyahu would both end up at the Hague alongside the leaders of Hamas. Fat chance though.
I think the Venn diagram is quite large. Corbyn and many of his acolytes, for one example.
Just want to check, am I still a “fucking appeaser” for having been right, all along, about the Ukraine war?
Yes, well done on having predicted a stalemate throughout.
Oh... February 27, 2022 Leon said: Nuclear war it is, then I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
Ambrose Evans Pritchard is sometimes said to have predicted 1,436 of the last 2 recessions.
He's predicted the German Supreme Court ruling the actions of the EU illegal and the subsequent consequential collapse of the EU way more times than that. He is a joke who often has interesting statistics which don't usually mean what he thought.
No, he’s weird. I know someone very smart that employs AEP
Says AEP is possibly the only journalist he’d call a genius. Often gets things wrong, but quite often gets things amazingly and impressively right, years before anyone else
Treat everything AEP says with proper caution, but definitely don’t dismiss it out of hand
You'd have thought Whitehall would have some sort of security around. Austerity or let them get on with non-violent protest and we'll arrest them later based on cctv?
In war, you are always entitled to kill your enemy, as long as you are proportionate about it and stick to the rules of law. That is the whole point of war.
The crime is using human shields, not killing them. Hamas are the war criminals for using human shields. If they only way to kill Hamas is to bomb them and the human shields they're using, then they are allowed to be bombed.
Special rules exist around hospitals. Hospitals are prohibited to be attacked, but if they are being uses as a human shield then the other side is entitled to give an evacuation order warning that the hospital will be attacked as its being used by the enemies military. After sufficient warning, then the hospital may be bombed too and anyone who remains in it.
Don't use human shields is the point of the Geneva Convention, not don't kill them.
I was quite impressed by the below from the storm - it’s roof slate that has pierced a friend’s Mini Countryman. Looks like some sort of prehistoric tool, the roof slate does as well.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
Well I'm not pro Russian. Or pro Putin rather (since it is he).
As for where it's going with Gaza, I'm extremely pessimistic. I think the deathtoll, suffering and displacement of innocent Palestinians is going to be off the scale. A typical 'par score' ratio of Palestinian/Israeli casualties is about 20/1 and this time we have as the trigger the 7th Oct Hamas atrocity (which was of a size and barbarity not seen before) and we have the dreadful Netanyahu in place. So I think a terrible vengeance is going to play out, come what may. Hope I'm wrong and 'politics' comes into play fairly soon as a dampener on things.
This is how genocide happens. The strong side makes life more and more difficult for the weak side until the weak side lashes out in vicious but futile retaliation. The strong side then declares THIS MEANS WAR and proceeds to annihilate the weak side with a sense of righteous justification.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
I'm not sure the intersection of the Venn diagram is that large. I'm at least as irate about the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the Israeli invasion of Gaza. In an ideal world, Putin and Netanyahu would both end up at the Hague alongside the leaders of Hamas.
I'm confused, Kinabalu reckons there's an ongoing occupation of Gaza, you reckon Netanyahu is invading Gaza.
Yours at least makes sense, since they weren't in Gaza and are going in now, but since Hamas declared war and attacked them and they're only defending themselves by going back after Hamas (which is entirely legal) why would anyone from Israel end up at the Hague?
Destroying Hamas is an entirely legitimate war goal.
If Hamas use human shields, then the Geneva Convention says that Hamas are committing the war crime there and Israel are entitled to kill human shields to get to Hamas.
I'm pretty sure the Geneva convention doesn't say that anyone has the right to kill human shields.
I'm guessing you're right, but must admit I've never read the Geneva Convention in full. Perhaps Bart can point us to the relevant paragraph ?
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
Didn't they conscript every able bodied man between 18 and 65?
So why wouldn't the average age be middle aged?
They didn't only conscript 18-25 year olds.
This is quite an exceptionally stupid remark, even by your own standards
Perhaps you can show me the error of my ways?
The median age in Ukraine is 44.7, they said all able bodied adults should join the military and could be conscripted to defend the nation, they banned anyone male 18-65 from leaving the country as they should be in the military instead.
Now the average age is 43. Below the median age of 44.7.
So the average is close to the average, and you find that shocking? Why?
Please tell me I don’t have to explain this to you
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Compliance!
Ah thanks. Let's hope both occupations end one day. We need a 'river to the sea' type slogan for Ukraine, I think. Or maybe there is one.
What occupation of Gaza?
An exceptionally stupid remark, from our MidEast expert.
Here you go:
Although Israel unilaterally withdrew its military forces and dismantled its Israeli settlements in Gaza in 2005 (and does not consider the territory held under military occupation), the UN, International Committee of the Red Cross, and many human-rights organization continued to consider it occupied as Israel military controls Gaza's borders, airspace, and sea access.[24][25][26]
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Compliance!
Ah thanks. Let's hope both occupations end one day. We need a 'river to the sea' type slogan for Ukraine, I think. Or maybe there is one.
From the Dniepr to the Donbass, Ukraine will be one!
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
I'm not sure the intersection of the Venn diagram is that large. I'm at least as irate about the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the Israeli invasion of Gaza. In an ideal world, Putin and Netanyahu would both end up at the Hague alongside the leaders of Hamas.
I'm confused, Kinabalu reckons there's an ongoing occupation of Gaza, you reckon Netanyahu is invading Gaza.
Yours at least makes sense, since they weren't in Gaza and are going in now, but since Hamas declared war and attacked them and they're only defending themselves by going back after Hamas (which is entirely legal) why would anyone from Israel end up at the Hague?
Destroying Hamas is an entirely legitimate war goal.
If Hamas use human shields, then the Geneva Convention says that Hamas are committing the war crime there and Israel are entitled to kill human shields to get to Hamas.
I'm pretty sure the Geneva convention doesn't say that anyone has the right to kill human shields.
Then you're wrong.
Perhaps you could quote the bit that says that belligerents have the right to kill human shields.
Interesting how the M&S advert is getting all this coverage, then there will be hours dedicated to its offensive, i am offended people get offended etc etc etc.
Where as very specific claims about anti-Isreali and anti-Semitism of the staff at the Guardian....tumbleweed.
I am waiting for the Fortnum & Mason advert.
Booths, Fortnum & Mason is very much style over quality...
Put it this way tonight I will be buying Fudge from the supplier to Fortnum and Masons / Harrods / Selfridges at about 20% of the price those shops sell it at....
Boots are OK, though they have closed their pharmacies in Ilford North (Barkingside), and opposite Parliament.
You from the south, Sunil?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booths for enlightenment - it's been called "the Waitrose of the North" which is a bit weird, as Waitrose is surely the Waitrose of the North.
Outside weirdly posh places, Lidl and Aldi are the Waitrose of the north.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Compliance!
Ah thanks. Let's hope both occupations end one day. We need a 'river to the sea' type slogan for Ukraine, I think. Or maybe there is one.
What occupation of Gaza?
An exceptionally stupid remark, from our MidEast expert.
Here you go:
Although Israel unilaterally withdrew its military forces and dismantled its Israeli settlements in Gaza in 2005 (and does not consider the territory held under military occupation), the UN, International Committee of the Red Cross, and many human-rights organization continued to consider it occupied as Israel military controls Gaza's borders, airspace, and sea access.[24][25][26]
@Leon AFU has expanded it's zone of control westward from Krynky (The bridgehead across the Dnipro recently) - The source for that is Rybar so it's definitely true. Might be something that moves the lines ?
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Compliance!
Ah thanks. Let's hope both occupations end one day. We need a 'river to the sea' type slogan for Ukraine, I think. Or maybe there is one.
From the Dniepr to the Donbass, Ukraine will be one!
That doesn't rhyme.
OK, I've got it!
"From the Dniepr to the Donbass, Ukraine will be one mass!"
Just want to check, am I still a “fucking appeaser” for having been right, all along, about the Ukraine war?
Yes, well done on having predicted a stalemate throughout.
Oh... February 27, 2022 Leon said: Nuclear war it is, then I forget, where do we hide? Under the kitchen table? In a doorway?
You actually combed back through PB to find that from February 2022?! Is your life really that empty?
30 second search pal, not hard.
No, the tragic bit is you quoting me on the week the war broke out. Feb 27, 2022
Not sure what this is possibly meant to prove
It proves that, like the rest of us, you spout a load of opinions, some of which are occasionally right but just as often they are not.
The difference is, you like to delude yourself that you have some special gift. You don't.
But I do. And it really annoys you
Edit to add: actually of course I don’t have a special gift. I am just able to analyse and extrapolate better than many, because I rid myself of prior assumptions and personal bias. Try it
Also I travel a FUCK of a lot. One of the reasons I knew the Ukraine war was going wrong was because I went to Ukraine and saw for myself. That simple
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Compliance!
Ah thanks. Let's hope both occupations end one day. We need a 'river to the sea' type slogan for Ukraine, I think. Or maybe there is one.
Is 'occupation' the best way to describe the status of Gaza before October 7th? If it were occupied, they wouldn't now need to invade it.
Ok, it could maybe be improved upon. What's the best word for being controlled and imprisoned by another country but not physically occupied by it?
In war, you are always entitled to kill your enemy, as long as you are proportionate about it and stick to the rules of law. That is the whole point of war.
The crime is using human shields, not killing them. Hamas are the war criminals for using human shields. If they only way to kill Hamas is to bomb them and the human shields they're using, then they are allowed to be bombed.
Special rules exist around hospitals. Hospitals are prohibited to be attacked, but if they are being uses as a human shield then the other side is entitled to give an evacuation order warning that the hospital will be attacked as its being used by the enemies military. After sufficient warning, then the hospital may be bombed too and anyone who remains in it.
Don't use human shields is the point of the Geneva Convention, not don't kill them.
In war, you are always entitled to kill your enemy, as long as you are proportionate about it and stick to the rules of law. That is the whole point of war.
I think we are entitled to a citation for that one, and also a definition of "enemy".
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
Didn't they conscript every able bodied man between 18 and 65?
So why wouldn't the average age be middle aged?
They didn't only conscript 18-25 year olds.
This is quite an exceptionally stupid remark, even by your own standards
Perhaps you can show me the error of my ways?
The median age in Ukraine is 44.7, they said all able bodied adults should join the military and could be conscripted to defend the nation, they banned anyone male 18-65 from leaving the country as they should be in the military instead.
Now the average age is 43. Below the median age of 44.7.
So the average is close to the average, and you find that shocking? Why?
Please tell me I don’t have to explain this to you
Go on, explain it to me.
They conscripted all men, not just young men, now the average age is comparable to the average age, not just young age. What am I missing that you see here?
Had they only conscripted young men, it'd be shocking, but they didn't.
In war, you are always entitled to kill your enemy, as long as you are proportionate about it and stick to the rules of law. That is the whole point of war.
The crime is using human shields, not killing them. Hamas are the war criminals for using human shields. If they only way to kill Hamas is to bomb them and the human shields they're using, then they are allowed to be bombed.
Special rules exist around hospitals. Hospitals are prohibited to be attacked, but if they are being uses as a human shield then the other side is entitled to give an evacuation order warning that the hospital will be attacked as its being used by the enemies military. After sufficient warning, then the hospital may be bombed too and anyone who remains in it.
Don't use human shields is the point of the Geneva Convention, not don't kill them.
Killing non-combatants, that is those not actively participating in hostilities, is a GC violation. Human shields are not active participants.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
Compliance!
Ah thanks. Let's hope both occupations end one day. We need a 'river to the sea' type slogan for Ukraine, I think. Or maybe there is one.
Is 'occupation' the best way to describe the status of Gaza before October 7th? If it were occupied, they wouldn't now need to invade it.
Ok, it could maybe be improved upon. What's the best word for being controlled and imprisoned by another country but not physically occupied by it?
Encirclement. A big concept in 19th and early 20th century geopolitics.
I was quite impressed by the below from the storm - it’s roof slate that has pierced a friend’s Mini Countryman. Looks like some sort of prehistoric tool, the roof slate does as well.
Interesting interview with nightclub doorman lookalike Gen. Zaluzhny here in which he shares a Leonesque analysis of the SMO. Specifically: a) it's a stalemate and b) Ukraine are going to run out of people before Russia does.
The fact that it's in the in-house journal of the CIA probably means something but I can't decide what. Maybe they are prepping him for the succession when the bin liner full of green t-shirts goes off to the charity shop.
What does the last sentence of that post mean?
Zelensky's resignation.
The idea that Ukraine will run out of people before Russia is a fallacy and it would be surprising if it were the view of the CIA. Whilst Russia may be three times the size, in population, there are many things that balance the scales:
At best Russia can use the population aged between 18 and 40. Ukraine can, is and will put people into the fight well outside those age brackets.
The Russian army is predominantly male and conscripting women would be a step too far even for Putin.
In the early 2000s, Russia was coming out of a steep decline in birth rate. As a result, even if they were all sent into the army (and we know that huge numbers have left) it wouldn't be able to field more than 500,000 men each year to replace casualties.
The Ukrainian army is fighting in a very narrow area. Russia on the other hand has to keep forces across 11 time zones.
So, whilst on an arithmetical basis Russia could continue with its current losses ad infinitum, in practice that is not the case. That is why we have reached a stalemate this year. Longer term, if the US keeps supporting Ukraine, the balance of power will be with them.
The average age of Ukrainian soldiers in the Ukrainian front line is now…. 43
Think about that. It’s not a case of “Ukraine might run out of men”, Ukraine has ALREADY run out of men
I don't think that will make nearly such a good song as 19. I read a story yesterday that Russia was now looking to recruit women for the fight in Ukraine.
Both sides are exhausted. I think this may be fizzling out into that Korean armistice
Time magazine agrees with the Economist
“But Zelensky’s convictions haven’t changed. Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic. “He deludes himself,” one of his closest aides tells me in frustration. “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that.””
This is why the US are going to have to "Diem" him.
I reckon we will see tacit pressure on Kyiv, from Washington, to quietly seek an armistice over the winter. They might not call it that, it could be framed as a temporary ceasefire, it suits both sides to pretend the War is still going
But it suits both sides to pause the war indefinitely, even more. To rest their men. To rebuild armies. To stop the hideous bleeding
So the lines will become frozen. A tacit acceptance of Russian victory in a few provinces at a terrible cost that Russia won’t want to repeat
In return DC will agree to arm Ukraine to the extent Russia will never try another, further offensive. Maybe something like that will be the endgame
Just a reminder - Y-axis starts at zero:
I wonder how that looks on people rather than area (under occupation)?
There are remarkably fewer people in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine since 2014, due to the truly murderous and genocidal policies of a Russian government that many of the people protesting over Israel tacitly support when they say the likes of "Let Russia have it cuz peace."
Odd, that.
Ditto in Gaza, the way it's looking.
Really? Have you seen how eastern Ukraine has been depopulated by the Russians, through deliberate policy (not the least by. recruiting all the men below 103 years old?)
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
I'm not sure the intersection of the Venn diagram is that large. I'm at least as irate about the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the Israeli invasion of Gaza. In an ideal world, Putin and Netanyahu would both end up at the Hague alongside the leaders of Hamas.
I'm confused, Kinabalu reckons there's an ongoing occupation of Gaza, you reckon Netanyahu is invading Gaza.
Yours at least makes sense, since they weren't in Gaza and are going in now, but since Hamas declared war and attacked them and they're only defending themselves by going back after Hamas (which is entirely legal) why would anyone from Israel end up at the Hague?
Destroying Hamas is an entirely legitimate war goal.
If Hamas use human shields, then the Geneva Convention says that Hamas are committing the war crime there and Israel are entitled to kill human shields to get to Hamas.
I'm pretty sure the Geneva convention doesn't say that anyone has the right to kill human shields.
Then you're wrong.
Perhaps you could quote the bit that says that belligerents have the right to kill human shields.
Barty seems to be suggesting that the appropriate response to Hamas using human shields is to... kill them?
In war, you are always entitled to kill your enemy, as long as you are proportionate about it and stick to the rules of law. That is the whole point of war.
The crime is using human shields, not killing them. Hamas are the war criminals for using human shields. If they only way to kill Hamas is to bomb them and the human shields they're using, then they are allowed to be bombed.
Special rules exist around hospitals. Hospitals are prohibited to be attacked, but if they are being uses as a human shield then the other side is entitled to give an evacuation order warning that the hospital will be attacked as its being used by the enemies military. After sufficient warning, then the hospital may be bombed too and anyone who remains in it.
Don't use human shields is the point of the Geneva Convention, not don't kill them.
In war, you are always entitled to kill your enemy, as long as you are proportionate about it and stick to the rules of law. That is the whole point of war.
I think we are entitled to a citation for that one, and also a definition of "enemy".
Comments
Retired General Michael Rose says MoD is still withholding information about the Argentine attack on the British vessel
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/11/01/falklands-colonel-claims-royal-navy-cover-up/ (£££)
Personally, I find it fascinating that even now - as the practical case for Sindy looks more and more tricky and full of unanswered questions (deficit? currency? relationship with rUK? relationship with the rest of Europe? defence?*) - Yes is still at 45%. That's a lot of people in favour of quite an uncertain future.
What this illustrates to me is that the hearts and minds battle (I was going to say argument, but that implies a battle of logic, which it explicitly is not) is far, far, far more important than the practical one. Yes has a very strong, simple hearts and minds argument; No does not. (This is not an inevitability. Take a stroll around Edinburgh; look at the layout of the New Town, the names of the streets and buildings, and reflect on the way in which the unionist side comprehensively won the hearts and minds battle in Georgian times.) This is interesting in itself, and also for the wider lessons we should draw from it for analagous situations elsewhere in the world.
It also illustrates the strength of the idea of the nation state. The desire for the state to equal the nation is a strong one. (There was - certainly in comparison to most states - only quite a half-arsed attempt at nation-building in the history of the UK.)
It's also interesting to reflect on the concept of the nation. What makes a nation a nation? The answer is that it thinks of itself as one. But how does this come about, and why, and how consistently, and to what extent does this tally with the Welsh notion of gwlad? Where stirs the heart; where feels like home?
So yes - interesting header; interesting topic.
*Of course, in the event of Sindy there would BE answers to all of these questions - we just don't yet really know what they are, nor how palatable they would be. My view is that the whole thing would work itself out in the end, but it would be a bumpy ride to get there. ROI provides an example of a successful small independent post-British nation, but also provides an example of a very bumpy ride to get to it - though of course history never repeats itself exactly or, necessarily, at all.
If Guardiola, or Klopp, had been stupid enough to take the job then they would have failed, because the club as a whole is dysfunctional, and its assets being sweated.
https://www.goal.com/en-gb/news/man-utd-are-like-an-adult-version-of-disneyland---red-devils-crazy-attempt-to-appoint-klopp-in-2014/6cb0l4ouw9y41byr0p01z7lfd
Which is why Gunner Grant ended up a Captain. Because he knew what not to say.
SG was preparing to offload troops in Fitzroy. Argentine Skyhawks bombed her. Lots of sailors/soldiers died. Simon Weston, despite severe facial injuries, thankfully survived. Chiu Yiu-Nam got the George Cross and Captain Phil Roberts got the DSO.
In Scotland, for example, SG grants to Local Government have been cut in real terms and council tax has been frozen, all while the services that LAs have a statutory duty to provide have increased.
Motoring is one of the very few areas LAs can raise revenue, so of course councils turn to fines to fund essential services. Even then, the SG legislated to freeze parking fines so they have been massively cut in real terms.
The "war on drivers" is at least as much a necessity for LG as a policy objective representing their constituents.
The supplies Russia is now receiving from North Korea are a crucial factor in prolonging the war. If these are simply rebadged supplies from China then Ukraine has a serious problem.
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/culture/63723/falkland-islands-war-rfa-sir-galahad-the-whiff-of-a-cover-up
I’m not joking. It’s hilarious. Watch to the end for the special “gay marching”
https://x.com/avivaklompas/status/1719867507983683944?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Odd, that.
https://www.warnerbros.co.uk/movies/one-life
The film is based round the efforts of Sir Nicholas Winton and the Kindertransport commemorated at Liverpool Street Station, as @Sunil_Prasannan reminded us after the demo there. Here's the real Nick and Esther on That's Life between dogs saying sausages and rude carrots.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqqbM1B-mPY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fv83u7-mNWQ&t=1s
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/26/politics/ukraine-filtration-camps-forcibly-remove-russia/index.html
I can see why people (particularly on the left) get irate about the status of Palestinians. I fail to see why the same people are oddly pro-Russian in their sh*tty conflict.
Russia are conscripting anybody who stays behind in Eastern Ukraine making them fight against their own countrymen or be shot. Anyone who isn't conscripted is being shot or moved to a completely different region away from Ukraine.
The people in Gaza . . . are still in Gaza.
Its simply an enemy of my enemy is my friend attitude, and their enemy . . . is us, the free, civilised, democratic west.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Booths for enlightenment - it's been called "the Waitrose of the North" which is a bit weird, as Waitrose is surely the Waitrose of the North.
Eventually, the poorest will simply be priced off the roads.
Israeli troops are going into Gaza now, because they weren't there before. The occupation of Gaza ended in 2005.
And before someone brings up the blockade of Gaza, that only came about (and was entirely justified) after Hamas took over Gaza. In-between the occupation of Gaza ending in 2005 and the rise of Hamas, Israel was encouraging Palestinians to develop the Port of Gaza and become more self-sufficient. Its a shame Hamas then took over and destroyed all that.
Exactly two weeks ago on 18th October, @MetPoliceUK pulled over our billboard vans twice, ordering the drivers to clear out of central London and stop displaying the faces of Israeli children kidnapped by Hamas.
Here’s an update on that:
• After we released our video of the incident on 19th October, the Met issued two statements the same night promising to “engage” with us.
• We were contacted by Jewish officers at the Met who have nothing to do with police misconduct to arrange a meeting with a police Commander whose job is to investigate it.
• On 20th October, the Commander met us but would not discuss the incident because it was under investigation. During the meeting, the Met released a statement saying that it would permit the genocidal “From the river to the sea” chant in London, but the Commander could not discuss that either. We asked for confirmation that the Met would not interfere further with our billboard vans. He promised to get back to us. We have not heard from him again.
• On 21st October, over 100,000 people coursed though London. In addition to the “From the river to the sea chant”, there were calls for jihad and numerous expressions of support for terrorism, as well as incitement to religious hatred. From its @MetPoliceEvents account, the Met explained why various criminal offences were not actually criminal offences.
• On 25th October, 1,000 of us demonstrated outside New Scotland Yard calling for the police to enforce the law. Prior to the demonstration, @MetPoliceEvents posted that the Met would be engaging and working closely with us. We instructed @AssersonLaw to contact the Met asking why they had still not explained their action in shutting down our billboard vans, despite the promises of engagement, and seeking an apology.
• On 26th October, the Met deleted @MetPoliceEvents.
• On 28th October, there was another enormous demonstration through London. People called for an “Intifada” (campaign of violence) from “London to Gaza” along with chants in Arabic warning Jews that “The army of Mohammed is returning” and announcing that they would give their “blood and souls”.
• On 29th October, Met Commissioner Sir Mark Rowley told Sky News that the marches had gone off well, and that his officers were right to shut down our billboard vans.
• Yesterday we bought a billboard van as no billboard van rental company was willing to rent to us and risk a confrontation with the police.
• Our billboard van campaign will be back on the road very shortly. We will not be silenced.
https://twitter.com/antisemitism/status/1719841230471720970
So why wouldn't the average age be middle aged?
They didn't only conscript 18-25 year olds.
https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1720011112521810270
Yours at least makes sense, since they weren't in Gaza and are going in now, but since Hamas declared war and attacked them and they're only defending themselves by going back after Hamas (which is entirely legal) why would anyone from Israel end up at the Hague?
Destroying Hamas is an entirely legitimate war goal.
If Hamas use human shields, then the Geneva Convention says that Hamas are committing the war crime there and Israel are entitled to kill human shields to get to Hamas.
Not sure what this is possibly meant to prove
On current Holyrood polls the Tories would have the balance of power at Holyrood in 2026 and so obviously that means no Holyrood indyref2 majority and any legislation needing Tory support to get through. On that basis we could end up with the next Scottish government right of the next UK government
If you mute the audio on the above clip, and start playing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CS9OO0S5w2k at exactly the same time as starting the video, it syncs up perfectly, providing a hearty chuckle.
As for where it's going with Gaza, I'm extremely pessimistic. I think the deathtoll, suffering and displacement of innocent Palestinians is going to be off the scale. A typical 'par score' ratio of Palestinian/Israeli casualties is about 20/1 and this time we have as the trigger the 7th Oct Hamas atrocity (which was of a size and barbarity not seen before) and we have the dreadful Netanyahu in place. So I think a terrible vengeance is going to play out, come what may. Hope I'm wrong and 'politics' muscles into the equation fairly soon as a dampener on things.
https://twitter.com/avivaklompas/status/1719867507983683944
An interesting question is why the US never used those batteries anywhere.
The median age in Ukraine is 44.7, they said all able bodied adults should join the military and could be conscripted to defend the nation, they banned anyone male 18-65 from leaving the country as they should be in the military instead.
Now the average age is 43. Below the median age of 44.7.
So the average is close to the average, and you find that shocking? Why?
Yes, there you are, next to the cottage cheese.
Says AEP is possibly the only journalist he’d call a genius. Often gets things wrong, but quite often gets things amazingly and impressively right, years before anyone else
Treat everything AEP says with proper caution, but definitely don’t dismiss it out of hand
The crime is using human shields, not killing them. Hamas are the war criminals for using human shields. If they only way to kill Hamas is to bomb them and the human shields they're using, then they are allowed to be bombed.
Special rules exist around hospitals. Hospitals are prohibited to be attacked, but if they are being uses as a human shield then the other side is entitled to give an evacuation order warning that the hospital will be attacked as its being used by the enemies military. After sufficient warning, then the hospital may be bombed too and anyone who remains in it.
Don't use human shields is the point of the Geneva Convention, not don't kill them.
The difference is, you like to delude yourself that you have some special gift. You don't.
Here you go:
Although Israel unilaterally withdrew its military forces and dismantled its Israeli settlements in Gaza in 2005 (and does not consider the territory held under military occupation), the UN, International Committee of the Red Cross, and many human-rights organization continued to consider it occupied as Israel military controls Gaza's borders, airspace, and sea access.[24][25][26]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaza_Strip
"From the Dniepr to the Donbass, Ukraine will be one mass!"
Edit to add: actually of course I don’t have a special gift. I am just able to analyse and extrapolate better than many, because I rid myself of prior assumptions and personal bias. Try it
Also I travel a FUCK of a lot. One of the reasons I knew the Ukraine war was going wrong was because I went to Ukraine and saw for myself. That simple
I saw this everywhere.
A Coldplay song starts and I shout out "Not F***ing Coldplay!" as I open the media player to skip the track.
Mrs J's boss, who she is talking to on a conference call, says: "I know how you feel..."
I think we are entitled to a citation for that one, and also a definition of "enemy".
They conscripted all men, not just young men, now the average age is comparable to the average age, not just young age. What am I missing that you see here?
Had they only conscripted young men, it'd be shocking, but they didn't.
The use of human shields is a crime, the killing of them if its proportionate to achieve military objectives is not.