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Today reconfirmed why the Tories were right to ditch Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662

    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    Govt policy at the time was explicitly to 'flatten the curve'. In other words, to delay inevitable deaths so they didn't all happen at the same time.

    What the Inquiry is showing is a much more complicated picture and considerable debate within government. The policy earlier on was herd immunity. Then the policy moved to flatten the curve. Cummings and others have complained of a lack of consistency in planning.
    This doesn’t need an inquiry to establish - the very first press conference effectively presented the herd immunity strategy, including actually using those words.
    And Cummings was busily claiming credit for it.

    Interesting to see the papers this morning. The Borisgraph, Times and Mail are laying into Cummings. The Guardian, Express, Mirror and Finanacial Times are laying into Johnson. The Star is hammering both of them.
    They each put the other there. If Cummings is so awful, that’s on Johnson. If Johnson is so awful, that’s on Cummings.
    The two used each other, and everyone else involved in the government of that period. A government that was only united by the idea of Brexitism.

    It is quite clear now that government incompetence and chaos didn't end with the unmourned end to the 2017 Parliament. The incompetence, chaos and infighting were only just beginning.

  • NEW THREAD

  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    I'd love those complaining about BJ's words to have all their private correspondence; and those of their friends and colleagues, analysed in anything near this much detail.

    If it continues this way, it's going to make any government impossible. How can you make decisions, especially in fraught times, if you know there's a good chance that any comment you make; any glance at the alternatives, will be used in the future against you? Especially when hindsight is added in.

    I would want robust debate in government, especially in a crisis. It's perfectly possible to 'sympathise' with a view, whilst eventually rejecting it.

    This is why the quality of politicians will get worse and worse. If i was SKS I would be looking at this enquiry in horror. Imagine all his discussions this week on the way he should go on Gaza being open to this much scutiny.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    Alastair Meeks in oddly confusing form - subjectively, it feels as though each paragraph contradicts its predecessor.

    https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/endgame-06fe25077201

    "Nowcast
    The net of all this is that my sense is that if there were an election tomorrow, Labour would get in the order of 425–450 seats and the Conservatives 110–135 seats."

    This one in particular appears to repudiate the previous thirty.
    Alastair admits that it is his guessing stick in action.

    Nonetheless all the evidence from polling, by-elections and the 2023 Locals puts the Tory seat total in that ballpark. Add in a swingback guess too and you add about 50% more Tory seats.

    Sure the data is imperfect, but what else is there to go on?
    But is there any reason to expect any swingback when the government has proved to be such a disaster?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    As always, a lot of realpolitik in this part of the world though, the Amercians will want to see the Saudis stop conspiring with Russia to hold up the oil price, and the Saudis will want a good deal on their next tranche of F-35s, especially as the Germans have just blocked Typhoon exports to them.

    The Saudis have never had F-35 and never will if Israel has anything to do with it hence Saudi interest in Rafale F5.

    Germany aren't going to cave on Eurofighter in my opinion. It's been a firm NEIN for years from different administrations. Any new Saudi jets would come off the British FAL at Wharton while the German FAL is busy with the Quadriga order so there isn't much commercial incentive for them to capitulate and a lot of countervailing political pressure to keep saying no.

    British Typhoon assembly will finish with the last Qatari delivery in 2025 if no new orders are forthcoming which is going to be a political migraine for the Labour government as the right wing fuckwit media (DM, Telegraph, etc.) will have a meltdown at the end of combat aircraft production in the UK.
    The Saudis would do better with F16s or whatever replaces them. Even the Pentagon is starting to wonder if the F35 is overengineered and over-expensive, and the Saudis main defence need is air shows and pot shots at Yemen.
    F-35 IS what replaces the F-16 and is the only LO 5th gen jet you can actually buy - if the US lets you. That's why everybody wants it and it has won every competitive procurement competition in which it has participated.
  • I'd love those complaining about BJ's words to have all their private correspondence; and those of their friends and colleagues, analysed in anything near this much detail.

    If it continues this way, it's going to make any government impossible. How can you make decisions, especially in fraught times, if you know there's a good chance that any comment you make; any glance at the alternatives, will be used in the future against you? Especially when hindsight is added in.

    I would want robust debate in government, especially in a crisis. It's perfectly possible to 'sympathise' with a view, whilst eventually rejecting it.

    "... never got beyond a pilot scheme in Yeovil"
    That Mitchell and Webb Look - Kill All The Poor (sketch set in the Chancellor's study)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s_4J4uor3JE
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,901
    edited November 2023

    Another day, another pile of corpses to come.

    Mutterings on various news platforms that this is spinning out into something regional. Because if Israel wants to take out Hamas it really needs to take out Iran.

    CEASEFIRE NOW does what exactly? Brings peace to the region? Or empowers Iran to resource siginficantly more terrorism to rain down on Israel?

    I look at the devastation in the refugee camp and recoil in horror. But what am I looking at? A refugee camp - what kind of refugees? Third and fouth generation descendents of the people driven away by Israel. Lots of people need to resettle - but do we have Memel refugee camps in Europe?

    There should be no refugee camps - but there are. And it has been bombed. Firstly that demonstrates that the hospital bombing story was a Massive Lie - so anything pumped out by the Gazan Health Ministry should be taken as such unless corroborated by someone who isn't Hamas. Secondly the IDF claim to have killed a chief Hamas commander. Who was deliberately using the civilians as human shields.

    Hamas build all these tunnels, yet not a single bomb shelter. Hamas demand that nobody leave, then stick their people and weapons next to children. Then decry the murder of innocents.

    For all the people demanding a ceasefire now, how do they see this playing out? Peace?

    Yes, we get it. Hamas are naughty boys. Hamas propaganda is not to be trusted. Though on the other foot, did you not notice Israel withdrew its own hospital missile video, and dropped the decapitated baby claims? Fog of war, and all that.
  • New thread.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    As always, a lot of realpolitik in this part of the world though, the Amercians will want to see the Saudis stop conspiring with Russia to hold up the oil price, and the Saudis will want a good deal on their next tranche of F-35s, especially as the Germans have just blocked Typhoon exports to them.

    The Saudis have never had F-35 and never will if Israel has anything to do with it hence Saudi interest in Rafale F5.

    Germany aren't going to cave on Eurofighter in my opinion. It's been a firm NEIN for years from different administrations. Any new Saudi jets would come off the British FAL at Wharton while the German FAL is busy with the Quadriga order so there isn't much commercial incentive for them to capitulate and a lot of countervailing political pressure to keep saying no.

    British Typhoon assembly will finish with the last Qatari delivery in 2025 if no new orders are forthcoming which is going to be a political migraine for the Labour government as the right wing fuckwit media (DM, Telegraph, etc.) will have a meltdown at the end of combat aircraft production in the UK.
    We could do a development deal with either Japan (who seem relatively keen) or S Korea - who actually have something ready to go.
    The latter would mean accepting junior partner status, so would be problematic.

    Korea has shown it needn't be prohibitively expensive - but they're more pragmatic in terms of cost/capability.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    Dura_Ace said:

    Sandpit said:


    As always, a lot of realpolitik in this part of the world though, the Amercians will want to see the Saudis stop conspiring with Russia to hold up the oil price, and the Saudis will want a good deal on their next tranche of F-35s, especially as the Germans have just blocked Typhoon exports to them.

    The Saudis have never had F-35 and never will if Israel has anything to do with it hence Saudi interest in Rafale F5.

    Germany aren't going to cave on Eurofighter in my opinion. It's been a firm NEIN for years from different administrations. Any new Saudi jets would come off the British FAL at Wharton while the German FAL is busy with the Quadriga order so there isn't much commercial incentive for them to capitulate and a lot of countervailing political pressure to keep saying no.

    British Typhoon assembly will finish with the last Qatari delivery in 2025 if no new orders are forthcoming which is going to be a political migraine for the Labour government as the right wing fuckwit media (DM, Telegraph, etc.) will have a meltdown at the end of combat aircraft production in the UK.
    The Saudis would do better with F16s or whatever replaces them. Even the Pentagon is starting to wonder if the F35 is overengineered and over-expensive, and the Saudis main defence need is air shows and pot shots at Yemen.
    They real planning adversary is Iran.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073

    I'd love those complaining about BJ's words to have all their private correspondence; and those of their friends and colleagues, analysed in anything near this much detail.

    If it continues this way, it's going to make any government impossible. How can you make decisions, especially in fraught times, if you know there's a good chance that any comment you make; any glance at the alternatives, will be used in the future against you? Especially when hindsight is added in.

    I would want robust debate in government, especially in a crisis. It's perfectly possible to 'sympathise' with a view, whilst eventually rejecting it.

    The lesson is rather that when you make hard choices, be honest about it.
    The real problem is that the public spin was often directly at odds with the private discussion.

    Few really have a problem with robust debate if you're straight about it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Nigelb said:

    I'd love those complaining about BJ's words to have all their private correspondence; and those of their friends and colleagues, analysed in anything near this much detail.

    If it continues this way, it's going to make any government impossible. How can you make decisions, especially in fraught times, if you know there's a good chance that any comment you make; any glance at the alternatives, will be used in the future against you? Especially when hindsight is added in.

    I would want robust debate in government, especially in a crisis. It's perfectly possible to 'sympathise' with a view, whilst eventually rejecting it.

    The lesson is rather that when you make hard choices, be honest about it.
    The real problem is that the public spin was often directly at odds with the private discussion.

    Few really have a problem with robust debate if you're straight about it.
    Can you remember what it was like back then? Lockdowns were unprecedented in modern Britain, and they had to be sold. And yes, robust debate is fine; but sometimes it is necessary for that debate to occur behind locked doors, and once a decision has been made, for everyone to back it in public.

    We needed to lockdown. A public 'robust debate' at that time would have been disastrous; particularly given the lack of information we had.
This discussion has been closed.