You don't get swings like this in UK elections, where a seat that was 71% to 19% is possibly going to go the other way. Canada and NZ have these big swings from time to time.
You don't get swings like this in UK elections, where a seat that was 71% to 19% is possibly going to go the other way. Canada and NZ have these big swings from time to time.
Surprising as the main parties seem fairly far apart politically at the moment. You’d expect the swingiest elections to be in countries where the parties are managerial rather than ideological, so more people are prepared to switch votes.
Met police seem to have said anyone with a Hamas flag will be arrested.
Could be an 'interesting' day in the capital I guess.
Has that woman who was tearing down the pictures of people who had been kidnapped been arrested yet? We really should not tolerate such behaviour at all. It is both disgusting and inflammatory.
YES already losing badly after just 0.5% votes counted in Oz
63-37
It’s gonna be a thrashing, and a humiliation for the PM
Is this the Australia referendum? Rural Tasmania likely to be reporting first.
More votes from New South Wales now. Exactly same pattern as Tassie
Just been reading about the Yes campaign in an article by a (yes-supporting) writer on Unherd. She reports a pattern lamentably common to political campaigns from the metropolitan left tge world over i.e. all you beastly people are stupid and racist and by the way here's a drag queen.
I'd forgotten she was one of the (few) SNP critics of their GRR Bill - but then as a psychologist she'd have known the issues and potential pitfalls involved......
Lisa Cameron forced into hiding. Her professional experience as a senior psychologist would always make her a “dangerous” figure for the SNP in GRA debate because she knows what she’s talking about. They prefer to listen to ideologues.
She said “the final straw” was the way the party had handled complaints against SNP MP Patrick Grady. When allegations first emerged that he made unwanted advances to a teenage party worker, Ian Blackford, then the party’s Westminster leader, asked colleagues to rally around Grady by “giving him as much support as possible”. An independent inquiry upheld the allegations and Grady was suspended from the party for six months but had the whip restored late last year. Cameron said the party worker had been let down by the process. “The way the victim was treated was something I could never be complicit in or condone,” she said.
What sort of country are we living in where politicians are forced to go into hiding?
One like this:
In Scotland, the SNP have the power and willingness to exact revenge on people they do not like in the sort of way you would normally associate with a totalitarian state.
Just to illustrate that let me tell my story of dealing with the SNP.
I moved to Edinburgh to report from the Scottish Parliament in late 2006 just before the SNP seized power from Labour in one of the closest of elections. When the Scotsman told me they were moving me to cover politics in Westminster in 2010 my wife wept tears of joy and relief because of the awful time we had suffered at the SNP hands. During those three years there were death threats, people searching for my car number plate online, people searching for my home address and the windows of my home was smashed seven times.
My editor at one point banned comments on my stories - because SNP activists were using it as a platform to try to make threats against me. My "crime" was not opposing independence; but writing up news pieces on the SNP's policies such as local income tax or the failure to keep its promise to pay off student debt. But this was taken as an attack on the independence movement.
Back in 2015 the former long standing Labour voters of East Kilbride (previously 51.5% of voters in 2010) switched en masse to the SNP to vote for Lisa Cameron. Now they're waking up to the fact that they unwittingly switched to vote for someone who turns out to be quite at home in the Tory party.
It's not a good look for the SNP. I think it will cause some former Labour voters to question why they switched in the first place, and as such it will help Labour's chances in the successor seat in 2024.
I got my printer working again by basically switching off my entire home and switching everything on again. Process took 30 minutes. Convenient
Printers are genuinely evil things.
I always recommend people get a Laserjet rather than an inkjet printer, they’re a million times more reliable and you change the toner every 10,000 pages or so.
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Back in 2015 the former long standing Labour voters of East Kilbride (previously 51.5% of voters in 2010) switched en masse to the SNP to vote for Lisa Cameron. Now they're waking up to the fact that they unwittingly switched to vote for someone who turns out to be quite at home in the Tory party.
It's not a good look for the SNP. I think it will cause some former Labour voters to question why they switched in the first place, and as such it will help Labour's chances in the successor seat in 2024.
Yes, while this is clearly good news for the Tories, I think the bigger winners are Labour. Scotland's fascinating four/five party politics played out across a SMP system mean that a big SNP fall - even if it almost all went ti the Tories, which it won't - would see Labour gain a swathe of Central Scotland just by standing still.
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Pass the sick bucket, she took Tory bribe. A grifter only out to line her own pockets.
Unlike most MPs Dr Cameron almost certainly took a significant wage cut to become an MP. She is also not standing (at least in her own constituency) again. What bribe? What grifting? What are you talking about Malcolm?
I got my printer working again by basically switching off my entire home and switching everything on again. Process took 30 minutes. Convenient
Printers are genuinely evil things.
I always recommend people get a Laserjet rather than an inkjet printer, they’re a million times more reliable and you change the toner every 10,000 pages or so.
Yup. My HP laserjet printer is still working perfectly 13 years after I bought it. The only issue is that, as a result of this sterling service, it's now so old that new versions of Windows can't find printer drivers for it.
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Pass the sick bucket, she took Tory bribe. A grifter only out to line her own pockets.
Unlike most MPs Dr Cameron almost certainly took a significant wage cut to become an MP. She is also not standing (at least in her own constituency) again. What bribe? What grifting? What are you talking about Malcolm?
You can play the innocent David but even a dummy would know that anyone supposedly for independence and in any would not go to Tories unless she was getting something out of it. Time will tell, she was a useless invisible dummy so will fit in well. I also doubt she was getting 250k expenses as a doctor. Labour have their triggers lined up so she had to go down a division.
I got my printer working again by basically switching off my entire home and switching everything on again. Process took 30 minutes. Convenient
Printers are genuinely evil things.
I always recommend people get a Laserjet rather than an inkjet printer, they’re a million times more reliable and you change the toner every 10,000 pages or so.
I once spent three years running IT support for an office of about 350 people. My biggest single achievement in that time, was to get a large number of small printers replaced, by a small number of large printers with service contracts!
It saved us tens thousands of pounds a year in supplies, replacements, and an inordinate amount of labour responding to the constant calls about the bloody things not working properly. From memory we started off with about 30 printers, and finished with six proper copier/printer/scanner thingies, plus three new small printers for the CEO and heads of finance and HR. Each HoD would also get a weekly report on how much each of their team was using the printers, in an attempt to get them to save paper.
Looks like the right might get a majority in NZ without Winston Peters
To be fair, I'd describe Luxon's National as more "centre right" - he's a little to the right of John Key who was very much in the Cameron mould (and also won after a long period of Labour rule under Helen Clark) but he's not a Don Brash.
In truth, rather like Starmer, he's promised very little and is no doubt well aware his room for manoeuvre is limited by the economic headwinds. He has benefitted from, as @Sandpit noted, a growing anti-incumbency reaction which basically doesn't seem to be differentiating much between "left" and "right" governments. We may see a centre-right Government in Poland thrown out tomorrow - we may not.
Just over a third of the vote counted in NZ and National still on 53 seats and 42% with Labour on 26% and 32 seats. National/ACT are projected to win 65 between them but some of the NZ correspondents are hinting it could be much worse for Labour based on what's happening in some of the solid Labour constituencies such as Mount Albert (basically, Islington Central). The minor parties are also tearing lumps out of Labour with Greens and Maori set to win Labour seats.
Morning all, internet issues (BT Hub a solid orange) so tethering from phone.
Does anyone have any technical advice, does this mean the hub has packed up and needs replacing?
Thanks,
DC
Bitter experience suggests more usually an internet issue. Have you rung BT and asked them to check the line?
Ah yes
1) Call BT 2) 216 years later get through to their Unhelp Desk 3) Be transferred 37 times 4) Someone claims that nothing is wrong and promises to send and engineer before the heat death of the universe 5) At some point after your call, the internet connection is magically restored.
I used to stay with BT because I assumed that there is no realistic alternative. But then our home broadband kept cutting out to the point where it was useless. I repeatedly called them to complain and BT kept telling me there was nothing wrong with it. I then started using a 4G portable modem which was faster and cheaper and has no contract.
The impression I get of BT is that it is a zombie company, it just has a massive customer base which it thinks of as a monopoly.
FWIW I've been with them for years, for both broadband and mobile. The service has been consistently excellent, much better than Vodafone, who I used previously. They've recently nudged me into moving to EE for mobile, which I felt nervous about, but that too went almost flawlessly with fast telephone assistance for a query. That said, when I did have a problem, BT phone response time to report the problem was a tedious 45 minutes. So: service great, helpline rubbish.
I think there's a lot of luck in it. I do remember helping someone get broadband via the Post Office, and I was astonished to find that their helpline consistently produced a helpful human within two minutes. They weren't the absolute cheapest but the experience made it feel worth it. Sadly they've now sold the business to Shell.
Yes, I think a lot of companies in the sector try to operate on the basis of "provide the service at as cheap a price point as possible, and skimp on customer service because it's expensive", because a lot of consumers will pick the cheapest headline figure. As a consumer strategy, "pick the cheapest" isn't necessarily a bad idea -- internet service these days is pretty reliable and failures when they do happen are usually not single-subscriber, so "if the internet goes out assume it will be back later and don't bother trying to contact the provider" is a pretty good bet, same as with electricity supply. Personally I pay more for a smaller ISP who do various geeky bells and whistles I care about and who will go and pester the wholesaler (previously BT, now cityfibre) if something's wrong, but the cost premium for "you can reliably email somebody who knows what they're talking about" is quite high.
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Pass the sick bucket, she took Tory bribe. A grifter only out to line her own pockets.
Unlike most MPs Dr Cameron almost certainly took a significant wage cut to become an MP. She is also not standing (at least in her own constituency) again. What bribe? What grifting? What are you talking about Malcolm?
You can play the innocent David but even a dummy would know that anyone supposedly for independence and in any would not go to Tories unless she was getting something out of it. Time will tell, she was a useless invisible dummy so will fit in well. I also doubt she was getting 250k expenses as a doctor. Labour have their triggers lined up so she had to go down a division.
She's been described as one of the nicest MPs in the Commons, and has also won an MP of the Year award.
"Lisa Cameron takes MP of the Year title for championing diversity and inclusion The Patchwork Foundation’s annual awards celebrate MPs working for underrepresented and disadvantaged communities"
Back in 2015 the former long standing Labour voters of East Kilbride (previously 51.5% of voters in 2010) switched en masse to the SNP to vote for Lisa Cameron. Now they're waking up to the fact that they unwittingly switched to vote for someone who turns out to be quite at home in the Tory party.
It's not a good look for the SNP. I think it will cause some former Labour voters to question why they switched in the first place, and as such it will help Labour's chances in the successor seat in 2024.
Yes, while this is clearly good news for the Tories, I think the bigger winners are Labour. Scotland's fascinating four/five party politics played out across a SMP system mean that a big SNP fall - even if it almost all went ti the Tories, which it won't - would see Labour gain a swathe of Central Scotland just by standing still.
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Pass the sick bucket, she took Tory bribe. A grifter only out to line her own pockets.
Unlike most MPs Dr Cameron almost certainly took a significant wage cut to become an MP. She is also not standing (at least in her own constituency) again. What bribe? What grifting? What are you talking about Malcolm?
I think it was previously suggested on here that a seat in the Lords might be in play. Difficult to see how her 'future in politics' would be meaningful otherwise, unless a safe Tory seat can be found for someone who only days ago was complaining about a Tory assault on devolution and them dragging Scotland out of the EU.
The Australian referendum issue for yes was there wasn’t a clear plan for how they would implement the vote . One hopes this was the main reason for No winning and not depressingly that so many Aussies are racist .
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Pass the sick bucket, she took Tory bribe. A grifter only out to line her own pockets.
I'm surprised. That's possibly the first time in years you've implied there are SNP MPs who *don't* take Tory bribes on account of being grifters only out to line their own pockets.
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Pass the sick bucket, she took Tory bribe. A grifter only out to line her own pockets.
Unlike most MPs Dr Cameron almost certainly took a significant wage cut to become an MP. She is also not standing (at least in her own constituency) again. What bribe? What grifting? What are you talking about Malcolm?
You can play the innocent David but even a dummy would know that anyone supposedly for independence and in any would not go to Tories unless she was getting something out of it. Time will tell, she was a useless invisible dummy so will fit in well. I also doubt she was getting 250k expenses as a doctor. Labour have their triggers lined up so she had to go down a division.
She could have sat as an Independent until the end of the Parliament. She will also not be getting £250k of expenses. Would have been on over £100k as a doctor though given her seniority.
I thought that you had little time for the SNP these days and were quite willing to accept that they are full of fairly awful people, willing to cover up for sex pests, financially untrustworthy and the rest. Is this not why you are in Alba now?
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Pass the sick bucket, she took Tory bribe. A grifter only out to line her own pockets.
Unlike most MPs Dr Cameron almost certainly took a significant wage cut to become an MP. She is also not standing (at least in her own constituency) again. What bribe? What grifting? What are you talking about Malcolm?
You can play the innocent David but even a dummy would know that anyone supposedly for independence and in any would not go to Tories unless she was getting something out of it. Time will tell, she was a useless invisible dummy so will fit in well. I also doubt she was getting 250k expenses as a doctor. Labour have their triggers lined up so she had to go down a division.
She's been described as one of the nicest MPs in the Commons, and has also won an MP of the Year award.
"Lisa Cameron takes MP of the Year title for championing diversity and inclusion The Patchwork Foundation’s annual awards celebrate MPs working for underrepresented and disadvantaged communities"
Exactly a Tory, settled in , feet under the table , looking for ermine , your usual Tory grifter. She was sent there to get independence and failed miserably. She was 2 days away from being dumped by her constituents, but likely just a coincidence.
Back in 2015 the former long standing Labour voters of East Kilbride (previously 51.5% of voters in 2010) switched en masse to the SNP to vote for Lisa Cameron. Now they're waking up to the fact that they unwittingly switched to vote for someone who turns out to be quite at home in the Tory party.
It's not a good look for the SNP. I think it will cause some former Labour voters to question why they switched in the first place, and as such it will help Labour's chances in the successor seat in 2024.
Yes, while this is clearly good news for the Tories, I think the bigger winners are Labour. Scotland's fascinating four/five party politics played out across a SMP system mean that a big SNP fall - even if it almost all went ti the Tories, which it won't - would see Labour gain a swathe of Central Scotland just by standing still.
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Pass the sick bucket, she took Tory bribe. A grifter only out to line her own pockets.
I'm surprised. That's possibly the first time in years you've implied there are SNP MPs who *don't* take Tory bribes on account of being grifters only out to line their own pockets.
Plenty of pocket fillers in SNP at present for sure, but even they would baulk at Tories.
On the Australian referendum ballot paper, you actually have to write ‘YES’ or ‘NO’. I doubt the Electoral Commission would give their blessing to that here.
I think National/Act are likely to need some kind of arrangement with NZFirst.
It’s complicated, but essentially special (eg overseas) vote are counted in arrears, and will probably cost National/Act two seats, and boost Labour/Green by two.
On current numbers that would leave National/Act at 62 instead of 64 which is current projection.
On top of that, due to “overhang” caused by the amazing success of Te Pāti Māori, Parliament is likely to be 123 or 124, so National/Act need to end at 63 or above if they want both a majority and to nominate a Speaker.
Luckily there is a safe by-election for National planned which will bring them to 63, but you can see how close this is.
NZ commentators don’t seem to have done all of the above maths yet…
Met police seem to have said anyone with a Hamas flag will be arrested.
Could be an 'interesting' day in the capital I guess.
Hamas is in the same category as ISIS, a proscribed terrorist organisation.
Waving Palestinian flags and chanting about the plight of the Palestinian people is fine. Waving Hamas flags and chanting ‘Death to the Jews’, isnt.
You'd think the former would find it easy to disavow the latter, yet the latter are remarkably honest about themselves and somehow manage to piggyback of the sympathy generated by the former.
This one will definitely be a sellout at the massive Modi stadium, possibly the largest cricket crowd in the world for decades.
When India were about to lose to Sri Lanka in the 1996 World Cup semi-final riots broke out in the stadium and the match had to be abandoned. Hopefully nothing like that will happen if Pakistan win today.
YES already losing badly after just 0.5% votes counted in Oz
63-37
It’s gonna be a thrashing, and a humiliation for the PM
Is this the Australia referendum? Rural Tasmania likely to be reporting first.
Somewhere, some Australian is keeping an AndyJS style spreadsheet and knows exactly what that means.
The BBC will be very disappointed if the referendum is lost. The first piece of theirs I read on the issue was basically 'Yes is marvellous, No are mostly racists'.
Happily, since it's nothing to do with me or this country there's nothing riding on the outcome one way or another so no emotional component.
I got my printer working again by basically switching off my entire home and switching everything on again. Process took 30 minutes. Convenient
Printers are genuinely evil things.
I always recommend people get a Laserjet rather than an inkjet printer, they’re a million times more reliable and you change the toner every 10,000 pages or so.
Yup. My HP laserjet printer is still working perfectly 13 years after I bought it. The only issue is that, as a result of this sterling service, it's now so old that new versions of Windows can't find printer drivers for it.
My monochrome LaserJet 1320 is approaching 20 years old, but it did briefly jam when I tried to print some card back in 2007.
Only 4 MPs have defected to the Tories since 1945 from parties not associated with them in any way (so excluding the unionists in the 1970s, and national liberals in the 1960s). The previous example was Reg Prentice in 1977, one in 1962, and two in 1948.
Thank you; I overlooked Alan Brown who left Labour to sit as an Independent in 1961, before joining the Conservatives when they were in Government in 1962.
(Technically, does a two-stage process count as a defection?)
Looking at the list of those who have changed party does seem to underline that it's generally disadvantageous to one's political career, even allowing for the fact that many MPs do it (or have it done to them) when retirement's on the horizon anyway. Most of the names on the list are not well-known (by me at least).
But I was surprised to see one name there -- a post-War MP who had a change of party designation but who went on to become Leader of the Opposition...
‘Looking at the list of those who have changed party does seem to underline that it’s generally disadvantageous to one’s political career…’: worked out OK for Winston Churchill, though.
Edit: I see ydoethur got there first … inevitably.
Sorry, not sorry.
I must confess I can’t think who else, postwar, defected from their party and rose to lead their new party.
Indeed the only other example of a former defector becoming Leader of the Opposition since Gladstone I can think of is Joseph Chamberlain.
National Liberal MP, Heseltine, ended up as leader of the internal and not very loyal opposition to thatcher
I got my printer working again by basically switching off my entire home and switching everything on again. Process took 30 minutes. Convenient
Printers are genuinely evil things.
I always recommend people get a Laserjet rather than an inkjet printer, they’re a million times more reliable and you change the toner every 10,000 pages or so.
Yup. My HP laserjet printer is still working perfectly 13 years after I bought it. The only issue is that, as a result of this sterling service, it's now so old that new versions of Windows can't find printer drivers for it.
Epson 8550 ink tank inkjet printer under a 3 year guarantee for me. High cost up front but the guarantee obviates that worry and running is vastly cheaper than cartridges, and it needs a drink far less often too so less hassle. Also, the ink can be bought separately for each of the 6 'colours' so none of the waste one gets with multicolour cartridges. I'm a heavy user so I'm many quids in after 2 years, and external (print shop) printing is no good for me for the same reason. It even prints A3 on demand which is great for proofreading small print.
YES already losing badly after just 0.5% votes counted in Oz
63-37
It’s gonna be a thrashing, and a humiliation for the PM
Is this the Australia referendum? Rural Tasmania likely to be reporting first.
Somewhere, some Australian is keeping an AndyJS style spreadsheet and knows exactly what that means.
The BBC will be very disappointed if the referendum is lost. The first piece of theirs I read on the issue was basically 'Yes is marvellous, No are mostly racists'.
Happily, since it's nothing to do with me or this country there's nothing riding on the outcome one way or another so no emotional component.
It's odd because there were a lot of racists in Australia about 50 years ago but probably not many today, yet organisations like the BBC think nothing has changed since then.
You don't get swings like this in UK elections, where a seat that was 71% to 19% is possibly going to go the other way. Canada and NZ have these big swings from time to time.
Surprising as the main parties seem fairly far apart politically at the moment. You’d expect the swingiest elections to be in countries where the parties are managerial rather than ideological, so more people are prepared to switch votes.
I think we and political parties can be surprised that people truly are not ideological, even when they sometimes think they are - we think very intense Labour people could never go Tory or vice-versa, no matter how the parties themselves alter.
When the truth is in the right circumstances people can flip significantly over time, even in unexpected or inconstent ways. If their systems incentivize that, for people to not lock in to one position, that's encouraging.
I'd forgotten she was one of the (few) SNP critics of their GRR Bill - but then as a psychologist she'd have known the issues and potential pitfalls involved......
Lisa Cameron forced into hiding. Her professional experience as a senior psychologist would always make her a “dangerous” figure for the SNP in GRA debate because she knows what she’s talking about. They prefer to listen to ideologues.
She said “the final straw” was the way the party had handled complaints against SNP MP Patrick Grady. When allegations first emerged that he made unwanted advances to a teenage party worker, Ian Blackford, then the party’s Westminster leader, asked colleagues to rally around Grady by “giving him as much support as possible”. An independent inquiry upheld the allegations and Grady was suspended from the party for six months but had the whip restored late last year. Cameron said the party worker had been let down by the process. “The way the victim was treated was something I could never be complicit in or condone,” she said.
What sort of country are we living in where politicians are forced to go into hiding?
One like this:
In Scotland, the SNP have the power and willingness to exact revenge on people they do not like in the sort of way you would normally associate with a totalitarian state.
Just to illustrate that let me tell my story of dealing with the SNP.
I moved to Edinburgh to report from the Scottish Parliament in late 2006 just before the SNP seized power from Labour in one of the closest of elections. When the Scotsman told me they were moving me to cover politics in Westminster in 2010 my wife wept tears of joy and relief because of the awful time we had suffered at the SNP hands. During those three years there were death threats, people searching for my car number plate online, people searching for my home address and the windows of my home was smashed seven times.
My editor at one point banned comments on my stories - because SNP activists were using it as a platform to try to make threats against me. My "crime" was not opposing independence; but writing up news pieces on the SNP's policies such as local income tax or the failure to keep its promise to pay off student debt. But this was taken as an attack on the independence movement.
Might it not have been a more impressive protest if she had not defected the day she was about to be deselected? Perhaps also if she had become an independent rather than joining a Unionist Party? She sounds like the worst type of self serving opportunist.
What about your comments on the day that a certain scandal effecting your industry came out?
If someone found out who you were in the real world, would those comments justify criminal threats against you?
Or is the protection of the law just for your friends and relations?
What comments were these and what scandal was this ?
Roger has “traditional” views in respect of #MeToo. Apparently it’s all part of young women “paying their dues” in the film industry
YES already losing badly after just 0.5% votes counted in Oz
63-37
It’s gonna be a thrashing, and a humiliation for the PM
Is this the Australia referendum? Rural Tasmania likely to be reporting first.
Somewhere, some Australian is keeping an AndyJS style spreadsheet and knows exactly what that means.
The BBC will be very disappointed if the referendum is lost. The first piece of theirs I read on the issue was basically 'Yes is marvellous, No are mostly racists'.
Happily, since it's nothing to do with me or this country there's nothing riding on the outcome one way or another so no emotional component.
It’s a fun one for me because I love seeing the Woke humiliated and also it’s a test of my knowledge of Australia, and the flavour of politics in each district
So far I’m doing ok. I’ve noticed my younger daughter’s district - Berowra, NSW - is pretty much exactly 50/50
YES already losing badly after just 0.5% votes counted in Oz
63-37
It’s gonna be a thrashing, and a humiliation for the PM
Is this the Australia referendum? Rural Tasmania likely to be reporting first.
Somewhere, some Australian is keeping an AndyJS style spreadsheet and knows exactly what that means.
The BBC will be very disappointed if the referendum is lost. The first piece of theirs I read on the issue was basically 'Yes is marvellous, No are mostly racists'.
Happily, since it's nothing to do with me or this country there's nothing riding on the outcome one way or another so no emotional component.
Yes, I’ve read a few like that on the Beeb, which has also blamed online disinformation’ too. We probably need to get BBCVerify on the job.
The Guardian also has been reporting it in those terms.
"That woman" (N. Sturgeon) from the UN being typically gracious:
I thank First Minister @HumzaYousaf for taking the time to reassure women, such as those gathered at @FiLiA_charity conference, that they can meet without intimidation, particularly at a time when he has many pressing issues, including the safety of his parents-in-law and extended family. I hope his relatives stay safe and that they and the millions of civilians trapped in Gaza and those in Israel are spared further suffering·
Ironic that the vagueness is cited as a cause for the probable defeat for the Government in Australia, whereas that helped the other side here in 2016.
YES already losing badly after just 0.5% votes counted in Oz
63-37
It’s gonna be a thrashing, and a humiliation for the PM
Is this the Australia referendum? Rural Tasmania likely to be reporting first.
Somewhere, some Australian is keeping an AndyJS style spreadsheet and knows exactly what that means.
The BBC will be very disappointed if the referendum is lost. The first piece of theirs I read on the issue was basically 'Yes is marvellous, No are mostly racists'.
Happily, since it's nothing to do with me or this country there's nothing riding on the outcome one way or another so no emotional component.
It's odd because there were a lot of racists in Australia about 50 years ago but probably not many today, yet organisations like the BBC think nothing has changed since then.
Australia can sometimes be quite racist in a way we don’t experience here. However I don’t believe this referendum is being lost due to that
It’s because the whole proposal was a gestural Woke mess, identity politics for the sake of it, jobs for the woke bureaucrats and not much else - and on analysis this became obvious. Hence the collapse in the Yes vote when the actual campaign began
This is an object lesson in how to lose a referendum
At one point YES was close to 70% in the polls. Incredible
I believe the rule of thumb is a swing back toward the status quo as a date approaches, but that's far beyond that given the lead it had.
And of course that can be reversed, as with the Sindyref, which was a lot close at the end than initial polling (if not as close as some of the very latest polls).
Ironic that the vagueness is cited as a cause for the probable defeat for the Government in Australia, whereas that helped the other side here in 2016.
Also that our PB righties are regarding it as a humiliation for the progressive government that some states don't agree, whereas they didn't think that way in 2016 when it came to Scotland and NI.
This is an object lesson in how to lose a referendum
At one point YES was close to 70% in the polls. Incredible
What turned the polls so quickly ?
It became obvious YES had no real idea what they would do with a win, “just vote for us coz its politically correct and feels good”. Also some important aboriginal voices came out for NO - which was crucial
I'd forgotten she was one of the (few) SNP critics of their GRR Bill - but then as a psychologist she'd have known the issues and potential pitfalls involved......
Lisa Cameron forced into hiding. Her professional experience as a senior psychologist would always make her a “dangerous” figure for the SNP in GRA debate because she knows what she’s talking about. They prefer to listen to ideologues.
She said “the final straw” was the way the party had handled complaints against SNP MP Patrick Grady. When allegations first emerged that he made unwanted advances to a teenage party worker, Ian Blackford, then the party’s Westminster leader, asked colleagues to rally around Grady by “giving him as much support as possible”. An independent inquiry upheld the allegations and Grady was suspended from the party for six months but had the whip restored late last year. Cameron said the party worker had been let down by the process. “The way the victim was treated was something I could never be complicit in or condone,” she said.
What sort of country are we living in where politicians are forced to go into hiding?
One like this:
In Scotland, the SNP have the power and willingness to exact revenge on people they do not like in the sort of way you would normally associate with a totalitarian state.
Just to illustrate that let me tell my story of dealing with the SNP.
I moved to Edinburgh to report from the Scottish Parliament in late 2006 just before the SNP seized power from Labour in one of the closest of elections. When the Scotsman told me they were moving me to cover politics in Westminster in 2010 my wife wept tears of joy and relief because of the awful time we had suffered at the SNP hands. During those three years there were death threats, people searching for my car number plate online, people searching for my home address and the windows of my home was smashed seven times.
My editor at one point banned comments on my stories - because SNP activists were using it as a platform to try to make threats against me. My "crime" was not opposing independence; but writing up news pieces on the SNP's policies such as local income tax or the failure to keep its promise to pay off student debt. But this was taken as an attack on the independence movement.
Might it not have been a more impressive protest if she had not defected the day she was about to be deselected? Perhaps also if she had become an independent rather than joining a Unionist Party? She sounds like the worst type of self serving opportunist.
What about your comments on the day that a certain scandal effecting your industry came out?
If someone found out who you were in the real world, would those comments justify criminal threats against you?
Or is the protection of the law just for your friends and relations?
What comments were these and what scandal was this ?
Roger has “traditional” views in respect of #MeToo. Apparently it’s all part of young women “paying their dues” in the film industry
Capacity 132,000 crowd to watch India v Pakistan in the Narendra Modi Stadium in Ahmedabad. Umpire/officials are mostly from England, (also South Africa and Zimbabwe).
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Pass the sick bucket, she took Tory bribe. A grifter only out to line her own pockets.
Unlike most MPs Dr Cameron almost certainly took a significant wage cut to become an MP. She is also not standing (at least in her own constituency) again. What bribe? What grifting? What are you talking about Malcolm?
I think it was previously suggested on here that a seat in the Lords might be in play. Difficult to see how her 'future in politics' would be meaningful otherwise, unless a safe Tory seat can be found for someone who only days ago was complaining about a Tory assault on devolution and them dragging Scotland out of the EU.
I thought she was meant to be done with politics, and this was the most embarrassing move she could inflict on the SNP. If she's not, agreed, where is she supposed to go which would provide a safe home?
The Australian referendum issue for yes was there wasn’t a clear plan for how they would implement the vote . One hopes this was the main reason for No winning and not depressingly that so many Aussies are racist .
Its not racism, its that the Voice was a terribly implemented bad idea.
The general principle got an overwhelming 70%+ support at first, it was only when people learnt more about it that it became rejected.
YES already losing badly after just 0.5% votes counted in Oz
63-37
It’s gonna be a thrashing, and a humiliation for the PM
Is this the Australia referendum? Rural Tasmania likely to be reporting first.
Somewhere, some Australian is keeping an AndyJS style spreadsheet and knows exactly what that means.
The BBC will be very disappointed if the referendum is lost. The first piece of theirs I read on the issue was basically 'Yes is marvellous, No are mostly racists'.
Happily, since it's nothing to do with me or this country there's nothing riding on the outcome one way or another so no emotional component.
It’s a fun one for me because I love seeing the Woke humiliated and also it’s a test of my knowledge of Australia, and the flavour of politics in each district
So far I’m doing ok. I’ve noticed my younger daughter’s district - Berowra, NSW - is pretty much exactly 50/50
What’s woke about Yes . Putting aside the issues around the practicalities of implementation. Or don’t you think people should be treated equally ?
You do come out with a lot of detritus interspersed with some interesting posts when you’re not trying to be controversial!
Ironic that the vagueness is cited as a cause for the probable defeat for the Government in Australia, whereas that helped the other side here in 2016.
No hard rule on these things I suppose. A hard core of people felt passionately about leaving the EU, and whilst both campaigns were crap their's was an easier sell than the bizarre Remain campaign afraid to point to benefits of staying in. And although the situation changed afterwards, at the time there were not as many people as passionately in favour of remaining.
I would take a guess that the Aus issue is, whilst important for many people, not a core identity thing and so the vagueness would be a turn off as it could be 'Sounds nice, but practically what does this mean or what must happen?'
The Australian referendum issue for yes was there wasn’t a clear plan for how they would implement the vote . One hopes this was the main reason for No winning and not depressingly that so many Aussies are racist .
Its not racism, its that the Voice was a terribly implemented bad idea.
The general principle got an overwhelming 70%+ support at first, it was only when people learnt more about it that it became rejected.
It’s a shame because a No vote sends a very poor message to the rest of the world .
If people were broadly in favour of this Voice idea in principle but it was shoddily planned and a bad campaign then Albanese should really try to find a way to implement some practical plans (which don't require a referendum) to demonstrate he respects the vote outcome but knows there's issues to be tackled which people support.
YES already losing badly after just 0.5% votes counted in Oz
63-37
It’s gonna be a thrashing, and a humiliation for the PM
Is this the Australia referendum? Rural Tasmania likely to be reporting first.
Somewhere, some Australian is keeping an AndyJS style spreadsheet and knows exactly what that means.
The BBC will be very disappointed if the referendum is lost. The first piece of theirs I read on the issue was basically 'Yes is marvellous, No are mostly racists'.
Happily, since it's nothing to do with me or this country there's nothing riding on the outcome one way or another so no emotional component.
It’s a fun one for me because I love seeing the Woke humiliated and also it’s a test of my knowledge of Australia, and the flavour of politics in each district
So far I’m doing ok. I’ve noticed my younger daughter’s district - Berowra, NSW - is pretty much exactly 50/50
What’s woke about Yes . Putting aside the issues around the practicalities of implementation. Or don’t you think people should be treated equally ?
You do come out with a lot of detritus interspersed with some interesting posts when you’re not trying to be controversial!
Go away and read the proposals with a clear eye. It was all a load of airy performative nonsense
Aborigines face horrible problems in Oz. I’ve been there and seen it. I’ve seen outright racism against them. And I’ve also seen violence by aborigines
This constitutional faff designed to make money for identity politicians in Canberra would not have benefited them. Indeed the whole referendum has sowed greater division than ever
You know what, I’m beginning to think that referendums are a pretty bad idea. Unless you’re Swiss
YES already losing badly after just 0.5% votes counted in Oz
63-37
It’s gonna be a thrashing, and a humiliation for the PM
Is this the Australia referendum? Rural Tasmania likely to be reporting first.
Somewhere, some Australian is keeping an AndyJS style spreadsheet and knows exactly what that means.
The BBC will be very disappointed if the referendum is lost. The first piece of theirs I read on the issue was basically 'Yes is marvellous, No are mostly racists'.
Happily, since it's nothing to do with me or this country there's nothing riding on the outcome one way or another so no emotional component.
It’s a fun one for me because I love seeing the Woke humiliated and also it’s a test of my knowledge of Australia, and the flavour of politics in each district
So far I’m doing ok. I’ve noticed my younger daughter’s district - Berowra, NSW - is pretty much exactly 50/50
What’s woke about Yes . Putting aside the issues around the practicalities of implementation. Or don’t you think people should be treated equally ?
You do come out with a lot of detritus interspersed with some interesting posts when you’re not trying to be controversial!
Yes I do think people should be treated equally, which was the argument of the No campaign.
And I say that as someone who is regularly called "woke" on racial matters. I supported Yes at the start of the campaign too, but the more I learnt about this, the worse an idea it seemed.
On the Australian referendum ballot paper, you actually have to write ‘YES’ or ‘NO’. I doubt the Electoral Commission would give their blessing to that here.
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Pass the sick bucket, she took Tory bribe. A grifter only out to line her own pockets.
Unlike most MPs Dr Cameron almost certainly took a significant wage cut to become an MP. She is also not standing (at least in her own constituency) again. What bribe? What grifting? What are you talking about Malcolm?
I think it was previously suggested on here that a seat in the Lords might be in play. Difficult to see how her 'future in politics' would be meaningful otherwise, unless a safe Tory seat can be found for someone who only days ago was complaining about a Tory assault on devolution and them dragging Scotland out of the EU.
I thought she was meant to be done with politics, and this was the most embarrassing move she could inflict on the SNP. If she's not, agreed, where is she supposed to go which would provide a safe home?
Alister Jack is standing down at the next election, so Dumfries and Galloway maybe? Unless she does a Malcolm Rifkind and decides to try and get a seat south of the border (unlikely, mind).
YES already losing badly after just 0.5% votes counted in Oz
63-37
It’s gonna be a thrashing, and a humiliation for the PM
Is this the Australia referendum? Rural Tasmania likely to be reporting first.
Somewhere, some Australian is keeping an AndyJS style spreadsheet and knows exactly what that means.
The BBC will be very disappointed if the referendum is lost. The first piece of theirs I read on the issue was basically 'Yes is marvellous, No are mostly racists'.
Happily, since it's nothing to do with me or this country there's nothing riding on the outcome one way or another so no emotional component.
It’s a fun one for me because I love seeing the Woke humiliated and also it’s a test of my knowledge of Australia, and the flavour of politics in each district
So far I’m doing ok. I’ve noticed my younger daughter’s district - Berowra, NSW - is pretty much exactly 50/50
What’s woke about Yes . Putting aside the issues around the practicalities of implementation. Or don’t you think people should be treated equally ?
You do come out with a lot of detritus interspersed with some interesting posts when you’re not trying to be controversial!
Go away and read the proposals with a clear eye. It was all a load of airy performative nonsense
Aborigines face horrible problems in Oz. I’ve been there and seen it. I’ve seen outright racism against them. And I’ve also seen violence by aborigines
This constitutional faff designed to make money for identity politicians in Canberra would not have benefited them. Indeed the whole referendum has sowed greater division than ever
You know what, I’m beginning to think that referendums are a pretty bad idea. Unless you’re Swiss
Amen we got some reasoned detail and not just your regular anti-woke tirades !
YES already losing badly after just 0.5% votes counted in Oz
63-37
It’s gonna be a thrashing, and a humiliation for the PM
Is this the Australia referendum? Rural Tasmania likely to be reporting first.
Somewhere, some Australian is keeping an AndyJS style spreadsheet and knows exactly what that means.
The BBC will be very disappointed if the referendum is lost. The first piece of theirs I read on the issue was basically 'Yes is marvellous, No are mostly racists'.
Happily, since it's nothing to do with me or this country there's nothing riding on the outcome one way or another so no emotional component.
The partiality on every article I’ve read about this on the BBC really took me aback.
Some outlets seem to come at it from the angle of “this is unreservedly A Good Idea so how can you possibly reject it?” Which it isn’t really the job of the BBC to do. Funny how they’re so steadfast in allowing people to “make up their own minds” on other issues….
A rather different example of someone not standing in the same seat at the next election (or any at all, here), from the Graun feed:
"A Conservative British MP has served notice on his government that he is planning to bring legal proceedings including a reference to the international criminal court for being complicit in Israeli war crimes in Gaza.
Crispin Blunt, the MP for Redhill Surrey and a former chairman of the foreign affairs select committee, has written the letter to the foreign secretary James Cleverly and Rishi Sunak".
Speaking to the Mail in her first interview since the shock defection, which was engineered by the personal intervention of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, she said: ‘It feels like a relief. I feel like I can look forward now to a much more positive future in politics and the work that I do in the Parliament, where I can be supported and my own welfare can be looked after too.....
‘Speaking to the Prime Minister and the time he spent with me listening to how I felt about things, taking on board some of the issues I had in terms of wanting a victim-led approach in the Parliament and feeling very supported by him. It just feels very, very different and very positive.’
Following her decision to speak up in support of the harassment victim of MP Patrick Grady last year, she was ostracised and ignored by colleagues.
Since urging them to think about the junior staff member who was the victim of the former SNP chief whip’s approaches, she said MPs became increasingly hostile and would pretend she wasn’t there.
Pass the sick bucket, she took Tory bribe. A grifter only out to line her own pockets.
Unlike most MPs Dr Cameron almost certainly took a significant wage cut to become an MP. She is also not standing (at least in her own constituency) again. What bribe? What grifting? What are you talking about Malcolm?
I think it was previously suggested on here that a seat in the Lords might be in play. Difficult to see how her 'future in politics' would be meaningful otherwise, unless a safe Tory seat can be found for someone who only days ago was complaining about a Tory assault on devolution and them dragging Scotland out of the EU.
I thought she was meant to be done with politics, and this was the most embarrassing move she could inflict on the SNP. If she's not, agreed, where is she supposed to go which would provide a safe home?
Alister Jack is standing down at the next election, so Dumfries and Galloway maybe? Unless she does a Malcolm Rifkind and decides to try and get a seat south of the border (unlikely, mind).
Worth looking at DavidL's earlier comment re a vacancy next door.
Met police seem to have said anyone with a Hamas flag will be arrested.
Could be an 'interesting' day in the capital I guess.
Has that woman who was tearing down the pictures of people who had been kidnapped been arrested yet? We really should not tolerate such behaviour at all. It is both disgusting and inflammatory.
True to both but in your professional role, are you ever called upon to prosecute fly-posters?
Comments
The last states to count - WA and QLD - will be even more NO
It's not a good look for the SNP. I think it will cause some former Labour voters to question why they switched in the first place, and as such it will help Labour's chances in the successor seat in 2024.
Just thinking it's possible that rural, conservative reporting blocs have returned first and there will be a lot of in state and national swing.
I don’t think he will get blamed for losing, more the mere holding of this divisive, expensive and in the end pointless referendum
And remember, to win the ref the YES team has to get an overall majority AND a majority in 4 of the 6 states
Just not gonna happen
I’m gonna go for 58/42 just because it sounds a bit like the Brexit result
I see Tasmania has been projected for No now.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/referendum/2023/results?filter=all&sort=az&state=all&party=all
It saved us tens thousands of pounds a year in supplies, replacements, and an inordinate amount of labour responding to the constant calls about the bloody things not working properly. From memory we started off with about 30 printers, and finished with six proper copier/printer/scanner thingies, plus three new small printers for the CEO and heads of finance and HR. Each HoD would also get a weekly report on how much each of their team was using the printers, in an attempt to get them to save paper.
In truth, rather like Starmer, he's promised very little and is no doubt well aware his room for manoeuvre is limited by the economic headwinds. He has benefitted from, as @Sandpit noted, a growing anti-incumbency reaction which basically doesn't seem to be differentiating much between "left" and "right" governments. We may see a centre-right Government in Poland thrown out tomorrow - we may not.
Just over a third of the vote counted in NZ and National still on 53 seats and 42% with Labour on 26% and 32 seats. National/ACT are projected to win 65 between them but some of the NZ correspondents are hinting it could be much worse for Labour based on what's happening in some of the solid Labour constituencies such as Mount Albert (basically, Islington Central). The minor parties are also tearing lumps out of Labour with Greens and Maori set to win Labour seats.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/in-your-area/lanarkshire/lisa-cameron-takes-snp-mp-26491261
"Lisa Cameron takes MP of the Year title for championing diversity and inclusion
The Patchwork Foundation’s annual awards celebrate MPs working for underrepresented and disadvantaged communities"
🚨NEW Scottish Westminster VI for @TheScotsman
📈Labour tied with SNP for first time in a Savanta poll.
🎗️SNP 35% (-3)
🌹LAB 35% (+1)
🌳CON 19% (+2)
🔶LD 6% (-1)
⬜️Other 4% (=)
1,002 Scottish adults, 6-11 October
(change from 9-14 June)
https://twitter.com/Savanta_UK/status/1713094182951125455
Even as it edges towards 55/45,
At one point YES was close to 70% in the polls. Incredible
https://www.abc.net.au/news
I thought that you had little time for the SNP these days and were quite willing to accept that they are full of fairly awful people, willing to cover up for sex pests, financially untrustworthy and the rest. Is this not why you are in Alba now?
I wonder if an MP gets paid more than an NHS Consultant Psychologist?
Indywise that’s a 60/39 split for NO/YES parties, even if you give all the “others” to YES
Victoria looks closer, but a 30k No lead.
https://x.com/jeromelaxale/status/1713026808474636334
This one will definitely be a sellout at the massive Modi stadium, possibly the largest cricket crowd in the world for decades.
It’s complicated, but essentially special (eg overseas) vote are counted in arrears, and will probably cost National/Act two seats, and boost Labour/Green by two.
On current numbers that would leave National/Act at 62 instead of 64 which is current projection.
On top of that, due to “overhang” caused by the amazing success of Te Pāti Māori, Parliament is likely to be 123 or 124, so National/Act need to end at 63 or above if they want both a majority and to nominate a Speaker.
Luckily there is a safe by-election for National planned which will bring them to 63, but you can see how close this is.
NZ commentators don’t seem to have done all of the above maths yet…
Interesting that Victoria is quite close. 52/48 (eek). He might carry one state. But then I think a lot of Melbourne counting is coming through..
Happily, since it's nothing to do with me or this country there's nothing riding on the outcome one way or another so no emotional component.
When the truth is in the right circumstances people can flip significantly over time, even in unexpected or inconstent ways. If their systems incentivize that, for people to not lock in to one position, that's encouraging.
So far I’m doing ok. I’ve noticed my younger daughter’s district - Berowra, NSW - is pretty much exactly 50/50
The Guardian also has been reporting it in those terms.
I cannot say I’m surprised at either.
I thank First Minister @HumzaYousaf for taking the time to reassure women, such as those gathered at @FiLiA_charity conference, that they can meet without intimidation, particularly at a time when he has many pressing issues, including the safety of his parents-in-law and extended family. I hope his relatives stay safe and that they and the millions of civilians trapped in Gaza and those in Israel are spared further suffering·
https://x.com/UNSRVAW/status/1713098644176453740?s=20
Ironic that the vagueness is cited as a cause for the probable defeat for the Government in Australia, whereas that helped the other side here in 2016.
It’s because the whole proposal was a gestural Woke mess, identity politics for the sake of it, jobs for the woke bureaucrats and not much else - and on analysis this became obvious. Hence the collapse in the Yes vote when the actual campaign began
And of course that can be reversed, as with the Sindyref, which was a lot close at the end than initial polling (if not as close as some of the very latest polls).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/66854577
The general principle got an overwhelming 70%+ support at first, it was only when people learnt more about it that it became rejected.
lol!!
Took about 8 minutes
You do come out with a lot of detritus interspersed with some interesting posts when you’re not trying to be controversial!
I would take a guess that the Aus issue is, whilst important for many people, not a core identity thing and so the vagueness would be a turn off as it could be 'Sounds nice, but practically what does this mean or what must happen?'
Aborigines face horrible problems in Oz. I’ve been there and seen it. I’ve seen outright racism against them. And I’ve also seen violence by aborigines
This constitutional faff designed to make money for identity politicians in Canberra would not have benefited them. Indeed the whole referendum has sowed greater division than ever
You know what, I’m beginning to think that referendums are a pretty bad idea. Unless you’re Swiss
And I say that as someone who is regularly called "woke" on racial matters. I supported Yes at the start of the campaign too, but the more I learnt about this, the worse an idea it seemed.
Oh, the arguments of whether people writing Y and N, or Yep, count.
Out of touch politicos in their own little bubble.
Unless she does a Malcolm Rifkind and decides to try and get a seat south of the border (unlikely, mind).
Some outlets seem to come at it from the angle of “this is unreservedly A Good Idea so how can you possibly reject it?” Which it isn’t really the job of the BBC to do. Funny how they’re so steadfast in allowing people to “make up their own minds” on other issues….
But sadly, for many of our fellow citizens, it isn’t
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Australian_republic_referendum#The_republic
But that’s still bad. Just one state
"A Conservative British MP has served notice on his government that he is planning to bring legal proceedings including a reference to the international criminal court for being complicit in Israeli war crimes in Gaza.
Crispin Blunt, the MP for Redhill Surrey and a former chairman of the foreign affairs select committee, has written the letter to the foreign secretary James Cleverly and Rishi Sunak".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Australian_republic_referendum#The_republic
The AHRC have just ruled that "Lesbian only events" in Melbourne have to include Lesbians with penises.