Categories
Sunak needs a better strategy – politicalbetting.com
Sunak needs a better strategy – politicalbetting.com
Rishi Sunak has been trying to position himself as the candidate of change – but 69% of Britons say he represents more of the sameRepresents change: 13%Represents more of the same: 69%https://t.co/OzoX3inVIl pic.twitter.com/9hGZvnpSnI
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
It only looks like a plan because he's being compared to Starmer.
Highly intelligent, very details focused but somewhat aloof and lacking the common touch. Like them he got the top job, or tried to get the leadership in Miliband's case, at the end of their party's time in power as the public mood was going against it
The idea that there remains a route to a 'better strategy', after the week of economic, and self sabotage, is somewhat fanciful.
I've not seen conclusive evidence that the audio is fake. I have seen "important people" TELL us it is fake, I've also seen unknown randoms on Twitter - who claim to be audio experts - say it is real
Which to believe? Neither?
This really does encapsulate our contemporary problem. AI Fakery colliding with politics. Maybe we will never know if Sir Kir Royale Starmer says "fuck sake you fucking moron fuck off to fucksitan with a fuck-bucket of fucks" ALL THE TIME
Personally, I'd quite like to know. And conclusive proof, either way, would be welcome
Kohli surely the key wicket now.
What similarly strange boasts might previous PMs have made ?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67044787
Tom Linden-McCarron: If stadiums are half-empty for an Indian World Cup match versus Australia in India, then unfortunately, as much as I love the format, ODIs' time may be up.
On the plus side, it'll pull in some great moths.
The practicalities of doing anything certainly require votes in Congress.
Centrist GOP effort to reinstate McCarthy picks up steam after Israel attacks
Reinstalling the Californian, the thinking goes, is the only way to quickly deliver aid to Israel.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/07/some-republicans-making-bid-to-bring-back-mccarthy-to-move-on-aid-to-israel-00120501
It's the kind of impudent denial of reality that Johnson could get away with but Sunak can't.
As for the wider picture, Sunak's holding the parcel as it explodes. There are only really three campaigns that work. "The Other Lot Are Scary" (not going to work with Sweary Starmer), "Everything's Swell" (ho ho ho), and "Time For A Change". He has to go for the third, even though it's clearly nuts.
Is there any real change that Rishi could offer, if so minded?
"BREAKING!
It’s officially WAR!
Israel declares war for the first time since 1973.
The National Security Council approved a state of war in accordance with Article 40 of the Basic Government Law."
https://x.com/AshleaSimonBF/status/1711004556023288107?s=20
Sure that you'll get shafted. Sure that you'll get lied to. Sure that they'll line their mates' pockets.
And that works in manifold ways.
Also the heat reduces the crowd's energy. You don't want to be leaping about cheering and singing when it's 38C with a wet bulb of 54C
Another issue is the huge stadiums. A 30,000 crowd packing the Oval or Headingley will sound amazing, 30,000 in a 100,000 seater in Kolkata won't provide any fervour at all
The problem is I think after a certain number of years you actually get reduced even further to only one, "Don't risk it". "Time for a change" might work on a specific policy issue, like settling the Brexit question where frankly the whole situation was a confused mess, but outside very broad matters like that to use it means you agree things are going badly, and thus admitting you've done a bad job, even if you try to blame others, since you cannot credibly claim you needed more time to change the things left over from the last lot.
So the choice of that as a direction is very telling, since it means the government believes it cannot defend its record, and that it is preferable to disassociate from its own past actions, despite that being on paper a much trickier thing to argue.
Show some technical analysis that show's the thing is generated, or both instances of "F*ck's sake" are identical in every way in a manner human beings just cannot manage, and someone will still say, "Well, can we be sure though?".
Firstly, looks like Ukraine is shafted. GOP reps already looking to make any spending commitments prioritise Israel at the expense of Ukraine. Russia is making sure its propagandists are amplifying this - it’s the let’s cancel x and use the money to fund y tactic for the US right.
Second, probably another refugee crisis for Europe to brace for, especially if Egypt is unwelcoming to Gaza Palestinians. And it’ll be politically toxic in Europe given the terrorist origins of what’s about to happen.
Finally, the usual oil price response, just in time for Boreal winter. Depends how wide any conflict spreads.
Not disbelieving you, just slightly mind-boggled. That's a horrific number in one day
Add in the retaliatory strikes from Israel and over 1000 now dead in the region.
For a start, it is hard to think of this as not strengthening the position of alt-right places, especially in those countries with large North African-mainly, Muslim populations (France, Sweden, Germany etc). The videos of people cheering the attacks in many Western countries will be circulated around, especially given the horrific videos coming out of Israel. Not hard to imagine the pick-up video scene gaining as much resonance as some of the pictures of the Vietnam War.
Similarly, it will probably also harden the line of those in Central and Eastern Europe who will call for greater limits on immigration into the EU and, for the Union, to be more 'robust' in defence of European culture and values.
In the UK, probably less of an impact than these other countries but it will again raise the question about the need to stop waves of immigration, especially given the large number of Afghans, Iranians etc coming on the boat (i.e. mainly Muslim). While the Conservatives are seen as woeful on the subject, if Labour is seen as the party of "let them all in", that is going to cause problems in many areas of the country.
The most interesting one could be the US. Already Pence has attacked Trump on this and Trump has responded by attacking Biden over his deal with Iran which, regardless of what you think politically, looks like an error given what has happened. How that plays out with Jewish voters may become a factor.
It is mind boggling. I just can't get over the intelligence failure. How on earth did they miss the preparations?
Putin will have been dreaming for a scenario like this. The worst people always find a way to prosper.
That's a momentous total
I don't see what Israel can do, now, other than reduce all of Gaza to rubble and keep it like that. I don't say this because I enioy "blatant terror porn" or whatever, but because of the logic. The devastating way Hamas fooled the Israeli army and intel regime, yesterday, and the new ways they did it - with drones, paragliders, missiles, presumably funded by Iran - means that Israel can no longer guarantee the security of its people as long as Gaza exists, Because Gazans will do it again, if they can
The equivalent toll in the UK would be 4,200 people killed and 14,000 injured, plut thousands kidnapped, in one day. Definitely an act of war requiring maximum revenge, as a matter of survival
Ergo: Gaza will soon cease to exist. The hideous "open air prison" method has run its course
https://x.com/ragipsoylu/status/1711004576927641740?s=20
I presume this is happening inside Gaza? Not in Iran or Lebanon. How did the Israelis not notice?
A near-term legislative response plan for the United States, if we’re serious:
—Confirm Ambassador to Israel
—Select a Speaker so House can work
—End Tuberville’s hold on military appointments
—Authorize an initial humanitarian & military aid package to Israel
Do it this week.
https://nitter.net/HeathMayo/status/1710917351338901780#m
It might be that there were warnings / there was knowledge but it was not added together / escalated / acted on and so on. After all 9/11 seemed to come asa shock but in fact there were a lot of warnings which were ignored. Ditto for incidents here.
No one doubted that America would survive 9/11. It was a traumatic blow, but America is a vast, mighty country, easily able to defend itself and take revenge
The ease with which Hamas has killed 600 Israelis in one day is a mortal threat to the Israeli state as a whole
Hamas is APPLAUDED by activists at Labour conference fringe event after killing hundreds of Israelis as Palestinian activist says dead terrorists have 'ascended to martyrdom'
More than 100 people attended the event at The World Transformed, a left wing festival that is not officially linked to Labour but which sprang up while Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12607559/Hamas-Israell-Labour-conference-fringe-Palestinian-terrorists.html
Major and Brown both had the sang-froid to hold things together as the ship sank; both 1996/7 and 2009/10 were moderately successful bits of government. The trouble was what came before.
Sunak doesn't seem to have that ability; the last month or so of whirling dervish looks more like a panic reaction to to things going badly. I don't know how he would cope with the "tell me about a time you failed" interview question.
And the trouble with that is that the flailing is more likely to make things worse than better.
And then we'll get some guff about hate crimes......
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_battles_and_other_violent_events_by_death_toll
For context, this is the 6th or 7th worst terror strike ever, and - given Israel's relatively tiny population - it seems to be the absolute worst: in terms of death per capita
I dread to think to sorts of things being said on twitter right now, but I can kind of guess from this thread by the British-Lebanese journalist Oz Katerji.
I know I should just ignore it but it makes me very angry when I say that killing civilians is wrong and then idiots who don’t know the first thing about my career reply “these people don’t care when Israel does it”.
Yes I do. I cared long before you even heard of the conflict.
I’m Lebanese. I was born into a pro-Palestine family. I have spent my entire life advocating for the creation of a Palestinian state and opposing the occupation. I am frequently attacked on here for being a pro-Palestinian Muslim.
I oppose antisemitism & murdering civilians for the same reasons I support Palestinian statehood & oppose the occupation. I believe in justice, democracy and human rights. That’s the entire reason I chose to become a war journalist. It’s literally all that drives me as a person.
I’m sorry that you feel that rape and child murder is justified when the side you support does it. I don’t. It’s always wrong. I will always speak out against it, no matter who does it, no matter what it costs me.
It doesn’t matter how much you scream at me for doing so.
https://nitter.net/OzKaterji?cursor=DAABCgABF77FOx___-kKAAIXvcYoWhYQwwgAAwAAAAIAAA
Today she has deleted her Twitter account. I wonder if she will keep her job. I hope not. Fuck these people
That's an eloquent statement by Oz Katerji
Do we need to shut down the LSE? They do have quite a record of these sort of matters e.g Gaddafi scandal...and of course where did the person responsible end up Natwest / Coutts....
I'd be astonished to find a 'post-colonial' academic who did not share that kind of thought to be perfectly honest. Anything they have deleted their account for now I'd be very confident everyone she worked with already knew she was for and had said publicly many times before.