Andrew Feinberg @AndrewFeinberg · 5h · 🚨🚨🚨Wow, outgoing CJS Chair Milley hits Trump at retirement ceremony: "We don't take an oath to a king, or queen, or a tyrant or a dictator. And we don't take an oath to a wannabe dictator ...we take an oath to the Constitution ... and we're willing to die to protect it".
(FPT) Perhaps we were right to wonder how a 16 year-old was an experienced tree feller, and also managed to drive himself to the middle of nowhere, and wasn't it convenient that at his age he'd get a slapped wrist.
Not quite the middle of nowhere - but with either a non-trivial hike of some hectometres and/or the need for a quad bike.
A 16 year-old would not have a driving licence, which means he is unlikely to own a vehicle.
You’ve not spent much time in Northumberland then?
Any child who lives on a farm will be driving quad bikes from the age of about 10…
Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).
This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...
Yes it has ended. I was at it.
Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high. Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.
My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.
PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
A reasonable theory. Quite a mad landowner if so. Either he didn’t realise the backlash he’d get or he was REALLY REALLY angry
Honestly if his name gets out and he’s guilty. Wow
Yep. It'll make that old bag who shoved that cat in a wheelie bin look like a much loved national treasure my comparison.
Incidentally, she'll no doubt thank Sunak for putting a stop to all this woke seven bins nonsense. She hasn't got time to work out which is the appropriate bin to shove cats into.
Food waste? If you hadn't cooked the cat, compostable?
I've called my local council and apparently they go in with paper, non-glossy card, and car batteries for some reason. Still, if it helps with the ozone layer, I'm all for it.
(FPT) Perhaps we were right to wonder how a 16 year-old was an experienced tree feller, and also managed to drive himself to the middle of nowhere, and wasn't it convenient that at his age he'd get a slapped wrist.
Not quite the middle of nowhere - but with either a non-trivial hike of some hectometres and/or the need for a quad bike.
A 16 year-old would not have a driving licence, which means he is unlikely to own a vehicle.
You’ve not spent much time in Northumberland then?
Any child who lives on a farm will be driving quad bikes from the age of about 10…
Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).
This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...
Yes it has ended. I was at it.
Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high. Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference
78 policies? Is that some kind of record?
Long playing. Spinning off policies.
Somebody got it! Goodness you guys are slow tonight!
The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.
Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.
On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.
Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.
So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
The Reform polling figures still strike me as odd. These amount to up to 2 million people are going to vote for a party no-one normal has ever heard of and registers less than zero in normal media coverage. I just find it impossible to believe at the moment.
The Green vote is also odd. There is one obvious and maybe about 1 or fewer further seats (where? no idea) where a tactical Green vote might make sense; but nationally if voting tactically the Greens should get approximately zero votes in any seat that could possibly change hands. The polling does not indicate anything like that.
I'd probably say Ref UK if polled right now (Tory 2019 voter in a marginal), mostly in protest at the Tories not having actual Tory policies anymore, having just become a party of high taxes, high spending and lots of nannying and performative eco-nomsense*. If I wanted any of that I would have voted Labour last time.
I've voted for Ref UK in the locals (I think! - it's been a while, it was either that or a spoilt ballot). I don't really know what I'll do at the next GE. If its looking tight, I'll probably vote Tory on the basis that much as I hate them and they deserve to lose, Labour will actually be worse. If I'm definitely getting a Labour MP anyway I might as well kick the Tories as hard as possible.
* I'm probably the target audience for this weeks blizzard of policy announcements. Currently I'm not very impressed, because whilst I largely agree with them, I think they're more spin than action, and nothing much will change in practice.
Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .
All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.
He claims 100K people "move off work and into benefit without any obligation to look for work"
Does he mean pensioners?
Is that really a description of the way the unemployed and disabled are treated? It can hardly be anything other than pensioners, but the numbers don't seem right - you'd expect something more like 0.6m a year at a very rough estimate (65 million divided by 85 years).
My experience of the system is that the only people (under 65) who go from work to a benefit without any obligations to work are in the Support Group of ESA (v v unwell/disabled people - increasingly hard to get the points required) or carers (fucking heroes saving that state billions).
Maybe I have missed something?
Quite so. No doubt we'll find out more tomorrow.
Will we?
Or will it be more popularist ill-informed bile about the welfare system?
They never have a go at pensioners (largest part of the benefit system) for some reason.
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
Plenty of countries are going to end up with a significantly worse climate. Not colder but worse.
I had a bit of an epiphany last August, in Corsica, when I stepped into the sea the first evening after arriving and felt like I was wading into a bathtub. The sea temperature was 30C. Sea should not be 30C.
For the rest of the week it was hot when we got up in the morning, ridiculously hot during the day, and uncomfortably hot in the evening. It never cooled down.
I grew up in a British context where warm equals good. Suddenly I understood why Madrilenos head for the North coast in summer and why heatwaves - not floods or hurricanes but basic heat - are the weather phenomenon most inimical to human life. Because they can last an entire season, with no respite except air conditioning.
So to me, “good” weather used to mean hot and sunny. Now it means temperatures in a range between 25 and 32, and no higher.
Spot on. The worst weather in this country is a heatwave. If it’s cold, I can put the fire on. I can sleep under two duvets. If it’s hot I cannot cool down. It is oppressive, and ugly. Very hot weather is the worst.
Twitter conspiracy theory has another question: why was it marked for cutting with white lines?
I once walked several miles along felled tree trunks that the woodland trust had cut down. And then spotted a single trunk which someone had spray painted :
Daniel Knowles @dlknowles I'm genuinely baffled that Rishi Sunak thinks not enforcing traffic laws is a winning political issue. Lots of people don't like speeding tickets. But in my experience British people also *really hate* reckless boy racers and want the book thrown at them
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
OTOH thgere won't be that many masts in the area, and quite a few signals from phones in cars (and on cars) along the main road. Easy enough to eliminate those by seeing how quickly they hand over to the next mast along. But that is a lot of work and you need to do it till only a few are left, and then you have to work through the local residents etc. Useful confirmatory evidence, sure, but pinning down a suspect? I don't see it.
It's not going to be the first time the police have used this sort of evidence. They won't exactly be doing it by hand, they will have routines to do the heavy lifting for them. Compared to an urban location the relatively low number of mobile phones in the area will make the task so much easier.
Daniel Knowles @dlknowles I'm genuinely baffled that Rishi Sunak thinks not enforcing traffic laws is a winning political issue. Lots of people don't like speeding tickets. But in my experience British people also *really hate* reckless boy racers and want the book thrown at them
Once again these people miss the point. We all say that we want strict laws on this stuff and the book thrown at boy racers, but we secretly want slack enforcement when it might affect us. That’s what the PM is leaning in to. It may or may not work.
E.g. The nod and wink that says I can drive past motorway speed cameras and rozzers with my speedo reading 80 and nothing will happen to me.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
OTOH thgere won't be that many masts in the area, and quite a few signals from phones in cars (and on cars) along the main road. Easy enough to eliminate those by seeing how quickly they hand over to the next mast along. But that is a lot of work and you need to do it till only a few are left, and then you have to work through the local residents etc. Useful confirmatory evidence, sure, but pinning down a suspect? I don't see it.
It's not going to be the first time the police have used this sort of evidence. They won't exactly be doing it by hand, they will have routines to do the heavy lifting for them. Compared to an urban location the relatively low number of mobile phones in the area will make the task so much easier.
When all is said and done I think you’re all failing to deploy Occam’s razor.
I am going with the 16 year old boasting about what he’d done to mates and someone dobbing him in. The older bloke is then linked via chainsaw/truck ownership.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
OTOH thgere won't be that many masts in the area, and quite a few signals from phones in cars (and on cars) along the main road. Easy enough to eliminate those by seeing how quickly they hand over to the next mast along. But that is a lot of work and you need to do it till only a few are left, and then you have to work through the local residents etc. Useful confirmatory evidence, sure, but pinning down a suspect? I don't see it.
It's not going to be the first time the police have used this sort of evidence. They won't exactly be doing it by hand, they will have routines to do the heavy lifting for them. Compared to an urban location the relatively low number of mobile phones in the area will make the task so much easier.
When all is said and done I think you’re all failing to deploy Occam’s razor.
I am going with the 16 year old boasting about what he’d done to mates and someone dobbing him in. The older bloke is then linked via chainsaw/truck ownership.
Or 16-year old sees the reaction online/from friends and runs to the police.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
60/16 more like grandfather & grandson.
Wild guess: grandson put up to take the flak as too young for prison or large fine.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
OTOH thgere won't be that many masts in the area, and quite a few signals from phones in cars (and on cars) along the main road. Easy enough to eliminate those by seeing how quickly they hand over to the next mast along. But that is a lot of work and you need to do it till only a few are left, and then you have to work through the local residents etc. Useful confirmatory evidence, sure, but pinning down a suspect? I don't see it.
It's not going to be the first time the police have used this sort of evidence. They won't exactly be doing it by hand, they will have routines to do the heavy lifting for them. Compared to an urban location the relatively low number of mobile phones in the area will make the task so much easier.
When all is said and done I think you’re all failing to deploy Occam’s razor.
Daniel Knowles @dlknowles I'm genuinely baffled that Rishi Sunak thinks not enforcing traffic laws is a winning political issue. Lots of people don't like speeding tickets. But in my experience British people also *really hate* reckless boy racers and want the book thrown at them
Once again these people miss the point. We all say that we want strict laws on this stuff and the book thrown at boy racers, but we secretly want slack enforcement when it might affect us. That’s what the PM is leaning in to. It may or may not work.
E.g. The nod and wink that says I can drive past motorway speed cameras and rozzers with my speedo reading 80 and nothing will happen to me.
The question is whether the public at large will believe that they will be treated leniently, or whether the only people to benefit will be the "them".
This is where those poll questions like "understands people like me", or "on my side", or "would like to have a drink down the pub with" are important. Those are the sorts of questions that mark the politician as either one of "us" or one of "them".
If, say, the public believe that the only people who will end up being treated more leniently are the sort of people who bend the law while driving (or being driven) to the helipad (while not wearing their seatbelt), then it might not work to the government's benefit. If the public have already definitively turned against the government then something like this could make it worse, even if it was the sort of thing that would help the government if the public started off better disposed towards them.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
OTOH thgere won't be that many masts in the area, and quite a few signals from phones in cars (and on cars) along the main road. Easy enough to eliminate those by seeing how quickly they hand over to the next mast along. But that is a lot of work and you need to do it till only a few are left, and then you have to work through the local residents etc. Useful confirmatory evidence, sure, but pinning down a suspect? I don't see it.
It's not going to be the first time the police have used this sort of evidence. They won't exactly be doing it by hand, they will have routines to do the heavy lifting for them. Compared to an urban location the relatively low number of mobile phones in the area will make the task so much easier.
When all is said and done I think you’re all failing to deploy Occam’s razor.
I am going with the 16 year old boasting about what he’d done to mates and someone dobbing him in. The older bloke is then linked via chainsaw/truck ownership.
Or 16-year old sees the reaction online/from friends and runs to the police.
Yup. Also, small community. They’d all know the weirdos and the disgruntled.
Daniel Knowles @dlknowles I'm genuinely baffled that Rishi Sunak thinks not enforcing traffic laws is a winning political issue. Lots of people don't like speeding tickets. But in my experience British people also *really hate* reckless boy racers and want the book thrown at them
Once again these people miss the point. We all say that we want strict laws on this stuff and the book thrown at boy racers, but we secretly want slack enforcement when it might affect us. That’s what the PM is leaning in to. It may or may not work.
E.g. The nod and wink that says I can drive past motorway speed cameras and rozzers with my speedo reading 80 and nothing will happen to me.
The question is whether the public at large will believe that they will be treated leniently, or whether the only people to benefit will be the "them".
This is where those poll questions like "understands people like me", or "on my side", or "would like to have a drink down the pub with" are important. Those are the sorts of questions that mark the politician as either one of "us" or one of "them".
If, say, the public believe that the only people who will end up being treated more leniently are the sort of people who bend the law while driving to the helipad, then it might not work to the government's benefit. If the public have already definitively turned against the government then something like this could make it worse, even if it was the sort of thing that would help the government if the public started off better disposed towards them.
Don’t disagree. For once, much does actually ride on the PM’s speech. I presume he’ll try a personal “son of a pharmacist” life story to unlock (or try to) some of that good will.
Similarly, if Starmer can be human and funny, he gets closer to sealing the deal.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
OTOH thgere won't be that many masts in the area, and quite a few signals from phones in cars (and on cars) along the main road. Easy enough to eliminate those by seeing how quickly they hand over to the next mast along. But that is a lot of work and you need to do it till only a few are left, and then you have to work through the local residents etc. Useful confirmatory evidence, sure, but pinning down a suspect? I don't see it.
It's not going to be the first time the police have used this sort of evidence. They won't exactly be doing it by hand, they will have routines to do the heavy lifting for them. Compared to an urban location the relatively low number of mobile phones in the area will make the task so much easier.
When all is said and done I think you’re all failing to deploy Occam’s razor.
I am going with the 16 year old boasting about what he’d done to mates and someone dobbing him in. The older bloke is then linked via chainsaw/truck ownership.
I really think you're underestimating how easy it would be to query this sort of evidence.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
OTOH thgere won't be that many masts in the area, and quite a few signals from phones in cars (and on cars) along the main road. Easy enough to eliminate those by seeing how quickly they hand over to the next mast along. But that is a lot of work and you need to do it till only a few are left, and then you have to work through the local residents etc. Useful confirmatory evidence, sure, but pinning down a suspect? I don't see it.
It's not going to be the first time the police have used this sort of evidence. They won't exactly be doing it by hand, they will have routines to do the heavy lifting for them. Compared to an urban location the relatively low number of mobile phones in the area will make the task so much easier.
When all is said and done I think you’re all failing to deploy Occam’s razor.
You’d have a job to cut down a tree with a razor.
When I were a lad we used to have cut down three tees with one safety razor before breakfast. But you know, we were happy in those days, though we were poor.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
OTOH thgere won't be that many masts in the area, and quite a few signals from phones in cars (and on cars) along the main road. Easy enough to eliminate those by seeing how quickly they hand over to the next mast along. But that is a lot of work and you need to do it till only a few are left, and then you have to work through the local residents etc. Useful confirmatory evidence, sure, but pinning down a suspect? I don't see it.
It's not going to be the first time the police have used this sort of evidence. They won't exactly be doing it by hand, they will have routines to do the heavy lifting for them. Compared to an urban location the relatively low number of mobile phones in the area will make the task so much easier.
When all is said and done I think you’re all failing to deploy Occam’s razor.
I am going with the 16 year old boasting about what he’d done to mates and someone dobbing him in. The older bloke is then linked via chainsaw/truck ownership.
I really think you're underestimating how easy it would be to query this sort of evidence.
No, I get where you’re coming from. I just suspect this one didn’t trouble the tech boys. PC Geordie Lad had a beer in the local, asked around, and made an arrest the following morning. Or, as suggested above, the young scrote came to him and asked for protection.
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Ayrshire won’t have a climate the same as the IoW in your lifetime. It’ll get wetter, and much milder, but will never have the summer rainfall minimum that the island has because it’s in a different location. Its climate is moving towards that of the SW of Vancouver Island and coastal Oregon.
In 40-50 years the IoW will have a cool sub-Mediterranean climate with summer drought, similar to Vigo or Porto today, as will Sussex and Southern Kent below the downs. Essex, Suffolk and Estuary Kent will have a climate similar to the modern day Valais in Switzerland. Southern Europe will be a scarcely liveable furnace during summer (not a desert, because humidity will rise too. More like the hot semi desert of coastal Gujarat). In the Middle East and South Asia people will be routinely dying from excess heat and humidity.
People are routinely dying from excess heat and humidity, in such countries, now.
Comments
@AndrewFeinberg
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5h
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🚨🚨🚨Wow, outgoing CJS Chair Milley hits Trump at retirement ceremony: "We don't take an oath to a king, or queen, or a tyrant or a dictator. And we don't take an oath to a wannabe dictator ...we take an oath to the Constitution ... and we're willing to die to protect it".
https://twitter.com/AndrewFeinberg/status/1707788800577945927
I won’t link. Sounds plausible but the age ain’t quite right…. But it’s close
I've voted for Ref UK in the locals (I think! - it's been a while, it was either that or a spoilt ballot). I don't really know what I'll do at the next GE. If its looking tight, I'll probably vote Tory on the basis that much as I hate them and they deserve to lose, Labour will actually be worse. If I'm definitely getting a Labour MP anyway I might as well kick the Tories as hard as possible.
* I'm probably the target audience for this weeks blizzard of policy announcements. Currently I'm not very impressed, because whilst I largely agree with them, I think they're more spin than action, and nothing much will change in practice.
Or will it be more popularist ill-informed bile about the welfare system?
They never have a go at pensioners (largest part of the benefit system) for some reason.
Star reporting more Brits like pineapple on pizza than not:
https://twitter.com/sgfmann/status/1707855533670072371
Twitter conspiracy theory has another question: why was it marked for cutting with white lines?
"No.1 The Larch"
Daniel Knowles
@dlknowles
I'm genuinely baffled that Rishi Sunak thinks not enforcing traffic laws is a winning political issue. Lots of people don't like speeding tickets. But in my experience British people also *really hate* reckless boy racers and want the book thrown at them
E.g. The nod and wink that says I can drive past motorway speed cameras and rozzers with my speedo reading 80 and nothing will happen to me.
I am going with the 16 year old boasting about what he’d done to mates and someone dobbing him in. The older bloke is then linked via chainsaw/truck ownership.
Wild guess: grandson put up to take the flak as too young for prison or large fine.
This is where those poll questions like "understands people like me", or "on my side", or "would like to have a drink down the pub with" are important. Those are the sorts of questions that mark the politician as either one of "us" or one of "them".
If, say, the public believe that the only people who will end up being treated more leniently are the sort of people who bend the law while driving (or being driven) to the helipad (while not wearing their seatbelt), then it might not work to the government's benefit. If the public have already definitively turned against the government then something like this could make it worse, even if it was the sort of thing that would help the government if the public started off better disposed towards them.
Similarly, if Starmer can be human and funny, he gets closer to sealing the deal.
The death toll will be higher.