Two trains collide at Aviemore Station with 2 passengers taken to Raigmore Hospital
Flying Scotsman involved apparently.
Ah, the steam loco rather than the named train, apparently. It sounds as if it the loco ran into a stationary carriage on the platform with the preserved Strathmore Railway rather than the Scotrail main line, but the latter has (unsurprisingly) been closed as it'd have been on the adjacent platform.
Two Christmases ago we had a lovely short stay up in Aviemore. For me the highlight of the trip was going on the Strathmore Railway through a snow covered landscape. Beautiful.
I have no idea how the polls develop but Sunak seems to be making a clear dividing line between the conservatives and labour
Also
Kiwis 49 Italy 3 at half time
Europe needs just 8 wins in the remaining 20 to win the Ryder Cuo
He's also making a clear dividing line between Conservatives and sense. Scrapping the winter fuel allowance? I can't remember anything as crazy as that and I'm old enough to remember Brexit.
From what I understand he wants to means test it
To be honest my wife and I will receive £600 shortly for the winter fuel allowance tax free, so means testing it would be fairer and we would receive nil
I think a better solution is to tax it, and free bus passes. If you are poor it will cost you nothing. If you're well off, you pay 40% tax or more.
Apply NI to pension/investment income too.
Agreed. Better to simply integrate NI into income tax. NI for employers would need to remain or find another source of tax to replace it.
0°C is arbitrary, however, so there's not much reason why that's a better starting point... or do you want it to start at 0K?
The freezing point of water isn't totally arbitrary when talking about global warming.
However, given the graph is average temperatures, the relevance is limited and, in any event it isn't misleading to have a clearly marked scale that starts somewhere other than zero to assist legibility.
Two trains collide at Aviemore Station with 2 passengers taken to Raigmore Hospital
Flying Scotsman involved apparently.
Ah, the steam loco rather than the named train, apparently. It sounds as if it the loco ran into a stationary carriage on the platform with the preserved Strathmore Railway rather than the Scotrail main line, but the latter has (unsurprisingly) been closed as it'd have been on the adjacent platform.
Two Christmases ago we had a lovely short stay up in Aviemore. For me the highlight of the trip was going on the Strathmore Railway through a snow covered landscape. Beautiful.
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
And Bangladesh.
The highest point in Bangladesh is Saka Haphong, 3,451 feet (1,052 metres).
Two trains collide at Aviemore Station with 2 passengers taken to Raigmore Hospital
Flying Scotsman involved apparently.
Ah, the steam loco rather than the named train, apparently. It sounds as if it the loco ran into a stationary carriage on the platform with the preserved Strathmore Railway rather than the Scotrail main line, but the latter has (unsurprisingly) been closed as it'd have been on the adjacent platform.
Two Christmases ago we had a lovely short stay up in Aviemore. For me the highlight of the trip was going on the Strathmore Railway through a snow covered landscape. Beautiful.
I hope those injured are ok.
Strathspey Railway.
Quite! Apologies. Too much Argentinian red with the free range pork and apple stew tonight.
(FPT) Perhaps we were right to wonder how a 16 year-old was an experienced tree feller, and also managed to drive himself to the middle of nowhere, and wasn't it convenient that at his age he'd get a slapped wrist.
Not quite the middle of nowhere - but with either a non-trivial hike of some hectometres and/or the need for a quad bike.
A 16 year-old would not have a driving licence, which means he is unlikely to own a vehicle.
It doesn't quite work like that off road in rural/farming communities, and where the nearest policemen are in Newcastle and Carlisle.
Not having a licence doesn't stop people driving, as any police twitter account will show you.
More interesting is the change over the 12 months. I know the orbit is eccentric, but is the change down to different land masses/oceans getting summer?
0°C is arbitrary, however, so there's not much reason why that's a better starting point... or do you want it to start at 0K?
It’s not arbitrary, it’s the freezing point of water. Less arbitrary than the scale Rees Mogg is planning for us after they win the next motorists right election.
Not always. It's the liquid-solid phase change for water at one atmosphere pressure (as any serious climatologist would know). Here's the phase diagram:
The idea Gen Z are all vegetarian and vegan is bullshit.
I've just seen a sign-up list of 65 of them for an event I'm running that asks about special dietary requirements and only 9 are vegetarian or vegan (only 4 are vegan).
Everyone else? Normal.
FPT
I'm not a vegetarian - but it is quite out of order to call them abnormal, subnormal, whatever.
For one thing, the idea that dietary restrictions are wrong will get you into serious trouble at any sensible workplace.
Saying that meat-eaters are normal is not identical to calling vegetarians abnormal or subnormal. One of the delights of the English language is that there are a wide variety of words, and so you can choose the precise word for the precise nuance you want to use. Unusual, for example, would work a lot better, and not carry any of the negative connotations that go along with abnormal.
Sure, but the context and mens rea of the original expression are also important.
In any case, 'normal' has to be understood to *include* a range of variation where the group is itself variable. If I were writing up a biological species, I wouldn't consider a feature evident in 14% of the individuals as 'abnormal' or 'unusual' but well within the normal range of variation.
The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.
Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.
On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.
Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.
So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.
Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.
On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.
Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.
So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
Classically clusters appearing in random(ish) noise, suggesting something that probably isn’t real. Or maybe it’s sampling errors after the summer holibobs. But if I were a Tory I wouldn’t be excited at being just 17 points behind rather than 20…
Two trains collide at Aviemore Station with 2 passengers taken to Raigmore Hospital
Flying Scotsman involved apparently.
Ah, the steam loco rather than the named train, apparently. It sounds as if it the loco ran into a stationary carriage on the platform with the preserved Strathmore Railway rather than the Scotrail main line, but the latter has (unsurprisingly) been closed as it'd have been on the adjacent platform.
Two Christmases ago we had a lovely short stay up in Aviemore. For me the highlight of the trip was going on the Strathmore Railway through a snow covered landscape. Beautiful.
I hope those injured are ok.
Strathspey Railway.
Quite! Apologies. Too much Argentinian red with the free range pork and apple stew tonight.
I rode the Strathspey to just past Broomhill back in 2019. Hope everyone involved is OK.
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
And Bangladesh.
The highest point in Bangladesh is Saka Haphong, 3,451 feet (1,052 metres).
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).
This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...
Yes it has ended. I was at it.
Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high. Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference
Sounds fun. Any politics?
78 policies agreed. Yes - there was some serious political disagreement on Europe and on housing targets.
On Europe the issue was whether we should be more specific and urgent about rejoining the single market or put it on the long finger. The leadership won on the long finger option by preventing any debate on the matter. Which was frustrating to many of us.
On housing targets, the issue was whether we should retain the overall target of 380,000 houses a year or scrap the target to avoid it being used against us by a Tory appeal to nimbys. The leadership lost and we retain the target of 380,000 houses a year, recognising that targets don't build houses, but the national target is underpinned by bottom up policies to help achieve it.
More interesting is the change over the 12 months. I know the orbit is eccentric, but is the change down to different land masses/oceans getting summer?
Yes. Even if the phase of the eccentricity of the orbit was shifted by six months you'd still have a higher average global surface temperature during northern hemisphere summer, because there is so much more land in the northern hemisphere than the southern hemisphere, and land goes through a much greater seasonal cycle in temperature.
I guess if you get to the stage of having an ice-free Antarctica to soak up the southern hemisphere summer sun then that would put a bit of a dent into it, but that's likely beyond our current experiment in altering the Earth's climate, given that pesky energy transition away from fossil fuels.
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).
This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...
Yes it has ended. I was at it.
Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high. Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference
Sounds fun. Any politics?
The main politics was the revolt of the Barty tendency against the NIMBYs. Leaving the Lib Dems with accidentally the most pro housebuilding policy of all the parties.
That was an unfortunate vote . The Tories will go full on the Lib Dems are going to turn your town into a housing estate on steroids.
The Lib Dem target seats are full of NIMBYISTS and you have to play the hand your dealt . It was shortsighted and self-defeating to vote for that .
Scrapping the housing target to avoid a NIMBY attack was a minority view of the several thousand experienced activists including many councillors present in the convention hall.
To be pro house building was judged to be more important, and honourable, than being pro NIMBY.
It was a good debate. How policy should be agreed.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.
Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.
On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.
Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.
So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
The Reform polling figures still strike me as odd. These amount to up to 2 million people are going to vote for a party no-one normal has ever heard of and registers less than zero in normal media coverage. I just find it impossible to believe at the moment.
The Green vote is also odd. There is one obvious and maybe about 1 or fewer further seats (where? no idea) where a tactical Green vote might make sense; but nationally if voting tactically the Greens should get approximately zero votes in any seat that could possibly change hands. The polling does not indicate anything like that.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
So older men can’t behave like total dicks, destroy things that have stood for centuries with no reason or sense or even shame? Donald Trump says hello. Older people can be as idiotic as younger people.
However, the older person could have been arrested for related issues not actually cutting down the tree such as trying to cover up for the younger chap.
Maybe the 60 year old man had proposed to his wife under that tree and she had told him that day that she was leaving him for a woke lefty just stop oil protestor. Do we feel some sympathy for him destroying such an emblematic object for all parties?
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
The 60-something is No 2 in the arrests line over the tree business. See the Graun.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.
Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).
This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...
Yes it has ended. I was at it.
Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high. Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference
Sounds fun. Any politics?
78 policies agreed. Yes - there was some serious political disagreement on Europe and on housing targets.
On Europe the issue was whether we should be more specific and urgent about rejoining the single market or put it on the long finger. The leadership won on the long finger option by preventing any debate on the matter. Which was frustrating to many of us.
On housing targets, the issue was whether we should retain the overall target of 380,000 houses a year or scrap the target to avoid it being used against us by a Tory appeal to nimbys. The leadership lost and we retain the target of 380,000 houses a year, recognising that targets don't build houses, but the national target is underpinned by bottom up policies to help achieve it.
And it was fun as well.
Glad you enjoyed it. At least you get to debate motions that the membership can overturn the leadership. The SNP used to be like that, back in the day.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.
Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.
On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.
Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.
So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
The Reform polling figures still strike me as odd. These amount to up to 2 million people are going to vote for a party no-one normal has ever heard of and registers less than zero in normal media coverage. I just find it impossible to believe at the moment.
The Green vote is also odd. There is one obvious and maybe about 1 or fewer further seats (where? no idea) where a tactical Green vote might make sense; but nationally if voting tactically the Greens should get approximately zero votes in any seat that could possibly change hands. The polling does not indicate anything like that.
I kinda agree with your point about Reform UK. However, modern culture is marked by online fragmentation, little pockets of people talking to each other. I could believe there's a substantial pocket of people who are into Reform UK, notwithstanding mainstream media coverage being low, just as I could believe there's a substantial pocket of people who are into crocheting with alpaca wool and we've just not heard about it in the mainstream.
As for tactical voting, I'm up for voting tactically, people here are well-informed about politics and voting and can see the logic of tactical voting. But lots of people just don't think that way. They just vote for the party they want. Now, as the election comes closer, Green (and Reform UK) voters may be swayed by tactical voting arguments, but I don't think that means their polling now is wrong, or odd.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.
Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.
On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.
Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.
So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
The Reform polling figures still strike me as odd. These amount to up to 2 million people are going to vote for a party no-one normal has ever heard of and registers less than zero in normal media coverage. I just find it impossible to believe at the moment.
The Green vote is also odd. There is one obvious and maybe about 1 or fewer further seats (where? no idea) where a tactical Green vote might make sense; but nationally if voting tactically the Greens should get approximately zero votes in any seat that could possibly change hands. The polling does not indicate anything like that.
The Greens polled as high as 11% before the 2015GE, and then 3.8% at the election itself.
During this Parliament I believe the highest Green party poll score is 13%. So, it's a bit higher than before the 2015GE, but not that much higher. On a proportional basis you might expect the Greens to receive 4.5% of the vote at the next GE. That's a bit lower than their current ~6% average in the polls, but not by enough to have a large effect on the result of the GE.
As to potential Reform voters, I'm not so sure. We've clearly seen in recent general elections that the volatility of the voters has increased. Generally speaking, they're not happy. The sources of news that they are using are becoming more fractured - for all I know there might be a lot more news about right-of-Tory parties on youtube, or GB News, than there is in the Guardian, or the BBC. So voting for Reform might seem like a much more normal thing for someone who took their news mostly from those sources.
The Referendum Party received more than 800,000 votes in 1997, and that was at a time when the media was much less fractured. The Reform Party might receive 2 million votes. Sunak and those around him certainly think that they might, otherwise they wouldn't be expending so much effort on trying to win those voters back.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.
Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
Are you saying I’m touchingly naive?
I think you miss my point. I don’t believe this was random mad vandalism. It all looks planned and careful - the fairly expert sawing, the choice of a dark stormy night, the spray to mark the cut
So I think this was a logical person doing something for a real purpose. But did they reckon on the intense national anger?
If they are convicted they might as well emigrate; this is life-ruining stuff
The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.
Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.
On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.
Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.
So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
The Reform polling figures still strike me as odd. These amount to up to 2 million people are going to vote for a party no-one normal has ever heard of and registers less than zero in normal media coverage. I just find it impossible to believe at the moment.
The Green vote is also odd. There is one obvious and maybe about 1 or fewer further seats (where? no idea) where a tactical Green vote might make sense; but nationally if voting tactically the Greens should get approximately zero votes in any seat that could possibly change hands. The polling does not indicate anything like that.
I kinda agree with your point about Reform UK. However, modern culture is marked by online fragmentation, little pockets of people talking to each other. I could believe there's a substantial pocket of people who are into Reform UK, notwithstanding mainstream media coverage being low, just as I could believe there's a substantial pocket of people who are into crocheting with alpaca wool and we've just not heard about it in the mainstream.
As for tactical voting, I'm up for voting tactically, people here are well-informed about politics and voting and can see the logic of tactical voting. But lots of people just don't think that way. They just vote for the party they want. Now, as the election comes closer, Green (and Reform UK) voters may be swayed by tactical voting arguments, but I don't think that means their polling now is wrong, or odd.
I think a lot of people know RefUK are the current name of Farage's mob and, like him or not, he's a prominent figure and certainly has a fanbase out there (as well as detractors).
Doubt it'll translate into that vote in a General Election as they won't run a full slate and will be squeezed. But it doesn't shock me they get quite a few people plumping for them in a hypothetical question ahead of an election campaign.
Similarly, the Greens have a following. They may hold up better as they will probably stand in more places and now have a good number of councillors in a fair number of places so will run vaguely visible campaigns in some places. But there will be a big squeeze by Labour in a change election, and I also think they have a big battle on their hands to keep their one seat, and no chance anywhere else, so would be wise to focus resources.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
"A society goes to sh1t when old men cut down trees in whose shade they once sat" Greek proverb.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
Not necessarily. Remember how the Glasgow bin lorry crash was assuredly a terrorist action? Like that, the tree felling could be something much more everyday. And ecoradicals cutting down the tree is about as likely as a right wing pressure group throwing the Parliament Square statue of Churchill WS into the Thames.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
Not necessarily. Remember how the Glasgow bin lorry crash was assuredly a terrorist action? Like that, the tree felling could be something much more everyday. And ecoradicals cutting down the tree is about as likely as a right wing pressure group throwing the Parliament Square statue of Churchill WS into the Thames.
So what’s your theory? I’m just testing out ideas. I love a good mystery. Also I want this solved and the culprit flogged for a year
Prediction: a proper poll with an under 10 point gap by Christmas. Evidence for this from current trends: Nil. But the election has started and in the current climate meaningless populism shores up the vote, and the Tories in their current guise have plenty more to come. And they have put away the dog whistle and introduced the klaxon.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.
Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
Are you saying I’m touchingly naive?
I think you miss my point. I don’t believe this was random mad vandalism. It all looks planned and careful - the fairly expert sawing, the choice of a dark stormy night, the spray to mark the cut
So I think this was a logical person doing something for a real purpose. But did they reckon on the intense national anger?
If they are convicted they might as well emigrate; this is life-ruining stuff
I don't think these people can comprehend why it makes people angry. That bit of the brain just isn't there.
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
Nothing's impossible, but the modus operandi of eco-radicals has generally been to loudly claim responsibility. So it would be pretty surprising. Suspect it's just arseholes, but we'll probably see.
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Ayrshire won’t have a climate the same as the IoW in your lifetime. It’ll get wetter, and much milder, but will never have the summer rainfall minimum that the island has because it’s in a different location. Its climate is moving towards that of the SW of Vancouver Island and coastal Oregon.
In 40-50 years the IoW will have a cool sub-Mediterranean climate with summer drought, similar to Vigo or Porto today, as will Sussex and Southern Kent below the downs. Essex, Suffolk and Estuary Kent will have a climate similar to the modern day Valais in Switzerland. Southern Europe will be a scarcely liveable furnace during summer (not a desert, because humidity will rise too. More like the hot semi desert of coastal Gujarat). In the Middle East and South Asia people will be routinely dying from excess heat and humidity.
That depends on the Gulf Stream continuing as presently. There’s a growing risk of a flip to the current which could leave the UK much colder especially in winter.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.
Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
Are you saying I’m touchingly naive?
I think you miss my point. I don’t believe this was random mad vandalism. It all looks planned and careful - the fairly expert sawing, the choice of a dark stormy night, the spray to mark the cut
So I think this was a logical person doing something for a real purpose. But did they reckon on the intense national anger?
If they are convicted they might as well emigrate; this is life-ruining stuff
I don't think these people can comprehend why it makes people angry. That bit of the brain just isn't there.
I think people who can't enjoy music are similar.
Yes. Sociopathy
They’re in for a rude shock if they weren’t expecting much backlash
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
Not necessarily. Remember how the Glasgow bin lorry crash was assuredly a terrorist action? Like that, the tree felling could be something much more everyday. And ecoradicals cutting down the tree is about as likely as a right wing pressure group throwing the Parliament Square statue of Churchill WS into the Thames.
So what’s your theory? I’m just testing out ideas. I love a good mystery. Also I want this solved and the culprit flogged for a year
Still thinking a dispute or grievance ofr some sort, however irrational or otherwise. Could be anywhere. NT, EH and the NP Authority all cover wide areas.
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.
My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.
PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
Not necessarily. Remember how the Glasgow bin lorry crash was assuredly a terrorist action? Like that, the tree felling could be something much more everyday. And ecoradicals cutting down the tree is about as likely as a right wing pressure group throwing the Parliament Square statue of Churchill WS into the Thames.
So what’s your theory? I’m just testing out ideas. I love a good mystery. Also I want this solved and the culprit flogged for a year
My theory is some people are arseholes, and some arseholes own chainsaws. I base this groundbreaking theory on having met a fair few people, and a proportion of them being arseholes, coupled with the fact B&Q doesn't require that people prove they aren't arseholes before serving them.
It's not the only theory, but it's a good theory although I say so myself.
Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
It's up a degree in my lifetime!
Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
Ayrshire won’t have a climate the same as the IoW in your lifetime. It’ll get wetter, and much milder, but will never have the summer rainfall minimum that the island has because it’s in a different location. Its climate is moving towards that of the SW of Vancouver Island and coastal Oregon.
In 40-50 years the IoW will have a cool sub-Mediterranean climate with summer drought, similar to Vigo or Porto today, as will Sussex and Southern Kent below the downs. Essex, Suffolk and Estuary Kent will have a climate similar to the modern day Valais in Switzerland. Southern Europe will be a scarcely liveable furnace during summer (not a desert, because humidity will rise too. More like the hot semi desert of coastal Gujarat). In the Middle East and South Asia people will be routinely dying from excess heat and humidity.
That depends on the Gulf Stream continuing as presently. There’s a growing risk of a flip to the current which could leave the UK much colder especially in winter.
A 20-30% likelihood. So not immaterial. But most likely is further heating, at least in our lifetimes. And not the Gulf Stream, that will continue come what may. The North Atlantic drift, powered by the Atlantic Meriodional Overturning Circulation.
Also the latest the AMOC shuts down, the less day after tomorrow the resulting scenario.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
It feels like this all points to some embittered old misanthrope with a local neighbour or planning grudge, who put his son / nephew up to doing the deed.
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.
My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.
PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
Surely recent events actually make Sycamore Gap a MORE appropriate name than it was when the sycamore was there?
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.
My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.
PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
A reasonable theory. Quite a mad landowner if so. Either he didn’t realise the backlash he’d get or he was REALLY REALLY angry
Honestly if his name gets out and he’s guilty. Wow
(FPT) Perhaps we were right to wonder how a 16 year-old was an experienced tree feller, and also managed to drive himself to the middle of nowhere, and wasn't it convenient that at his age he'd get a slapped wrist.
Not quite the middle of nowhere - but with either a non-trivial hike of some hectometres and/or the need for a quad bike.
A 16 year-old would not have a driving licence, which means he is unlikely to own a vehicle.
You’ve not spent much time in Northumberland then?
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
How many phones will have connected with the cellphone masts around Sycamore Gap that night? Not many.
Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).
This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...
Yes it has ended. I was at it.
Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high. Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
How many phones will have connected with the cellphone masts around Sycamore Gap that night? Not many.
Can they do that? I know a person can be tracked by cell signal triangulations but can they do it in reverse?
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.
Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
Are you saying I’m touchingly naive?
I think you miss my point. I don’t believe this was random mad vandalism. It all looks planned and careful - the fairly expert sawing, the choice of a dark stormy night, the spray to mark the cut
So I think this was a logical person doing something for a real purpose. But did they reckon on the intense national anger?
If they are convicted they might as well emigrate; this is life-ruining stuff
I don't think these people can comprehend why it makes people angry. That bit of the brain just isn't there.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.
Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
Are you saying I’m touchingly naive?
I think you miss my point. I don’t believe this was random mad vandalism. It all looks planned and careful - the fairly expert sawing, the choice of a dark stormy night, the spray to mark the cut
So I think this was a logical person doing something for a real purpose. But did they reckon on the intense national anger?
If they are convicted they might as well emigrate; this is life-ruining stuff
I don't think these people can comprehend why it makes people angry. That bit of the brain just isn't there.
I think people who can't enjoy music are similar.
That's a leap.
No it’s a good analogy. A fundamental bit of the healthy rounded human psyche is missing
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.
My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.
PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
A reasonable theory. Quite a mad landowner if so. Either he didn’t realise the backlash he’d get or he was REALLY REALLY angry
Honestly if his name gets out and he’s guilty. Wow
Yep. It'll make that old bag who shoved that cat in a wheelie bin look like a much loved national treasure my comparison.
Incidentally, she'll no doubt thank Sunak for putting a stop to all this woke seven bins nonsense. She hasn't got time to work out which is the appropriate bin to shove cats into.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
OTOH thgere won't be that many masts in the area, and quite a few signals from phones in cars (and on cars) along the main road. Easy enough to eliminate those by seeing how quickly they hand over to the next mast along. But that is a lot of work and you need to do it till only a few are left, and then you have to work through the local residents etc. Useful confirmatory evidence, sure, but pinning down a suspect? I don't see it.
Sam Freedman @Samfr · 6h I'd have thought removing an already existing benefit would be more unpopular than removing a future committment to increase a benefit.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
It’s a good job I don’t write mystery thrillers
Just set them in Göbekli Tepe at the height of its activity - no mobiles to worry about.
Sunak seems to have spent today yet again attacking his own government policies.
The current Tory government are like Rottweilers in opposition.
That’s the most surreal thing about this government. But not actually unusual for populist regimes. It’s a classic tactic: permanent opposition to the imagined secretive ruling cabal.
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
It’s a good job I don’t write mystery thrillers
Is their mobile signal on Hadrian's Wall in middle of nowhere?
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.
My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.
PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
A reasonable theory. Quite a mad landowner if so. Either he didn’t realise the backlash he’d get or he was REALLY REALLY angry
Honestly if his name gets out and he’s guilty. Wow
Yep. It'll make that old bag who shoved that cat in a wheelie bin look like a much loved national treasure my comparison.
Incidentally, she'll no doubt thank Sunak for putting a stop to all this woke seven bins nonsense. She hasn't got time to work out which is the appropriate bin to shove cats into.
I honestly think you’d have to emigrate
For the rest of your life you will be THAT GUY who chopped down THAT TREE
The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
I thought it was a 16 year old?
A 60 year old now arrested
Shopped by the 16 year old?
Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
It’s a good job I don’t write mystery thrillers
Fairly certain it's the sort of data that the mobile phone companies are obliged to store for a certain period of time so that they can hand it over to the police if requested, but I can't find a specific reference for it right now. If I was the police it's definitely data I would have asked for back when RIPA was being written.
Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .
All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.
He claims 100K people "move off work and into benefit without any obligation to look for work"
Does he mean pensioners?
Is that really a description of the way the unemployed and disabled are treated? It can hardly be anything other than pensioners, but the numbers don't seem right - you'd expect something more like 0.6m a year at a very rough estimate (65 million divided by 85 years).
Scott Hall, one of Trump's co-defendants in the Georgia case, has flipped.
That's interesting.
I also see he's got five years probation, $5k fine, 200 hours of litter picking, and the requirement to write a letter of apology to the State of Georgia (!) for his trouble.
That's a pretty attractive deal, frankly, and will give others pause for thought. Get off with a slap on the wrist or expose yourself to a real risk of hard time in defending the Orange One?
Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .
All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.
He claims 100K people "move off work and into benefit without any obligation to look for work"
Does he mean pensioners?
Is that really a description of the way the unemployed and disabled are treated? It can hardly be anything other than pensioners, but the numbers don't seem right - you'd expect something more like 0.6m a year at a very rough estimate (65 million divided by 85 years).
My experience of the system is that the only people (under 65) who go from work to a benefit without any obligations to work are in the Support Group of ESA (v v unwell/disabled people - increasingly hard to get the points required) or carers (fucking heroes saving that state billions).
Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).
This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...
Yes it has ended. I was at it.
Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high. Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference
Sunak seems to have spent today yet again attacking his own government policies.
The current Tory government are like Rottweilers in opposition.
That’s the most surreal thing about this government. But not actually unusual for populist regimes. It’s a classic tactic: permanent opposition to the imagined secretive ruling cabal.
Yep.
Sunak: why are we not building far more new roads. People love their cars!!
Crowd: Dunno mate, you tell us, you've been running the country for 13 years.
Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .
All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.
He claims 100K people "move off work and into benefit without any obligation to look for work"
Does he mean pensioners?
Is that really a description of the way the unemployed and disabled are treated? It can hardly be anything other than pensioners, but the numbers don't seem right - you'd expect something more like 0.6m a year at a very rough estimate (65 million divided by 85 years).
My experience of the system is that the only people (under 65) who go from work to a benefit without any obligations to work are in the Support Group of ESA (v v unwell/disabled people - increasingly hard to get the points required) or carers (fucking heroes saving that state billions).
Maybe I have missed something?
It’s skivers vs strivers again. “Don’t blame us, blame ‘them’”
Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .
All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.
He claims 100K people "move off work and into benefit without any obligation to look for work"
Does he mean pensioners?
Is that really a description of the way the unemployed and disabled are treated? It can hardly be anything other than pensioners, but the numbers don't seem right - you'd expect something more like 0.6m a year at a very rough estimate (65 million divided by 85 years).
My experience of the system is that the only people (under 65) who go from work to a benefit without any obligations to work are in the Support Group of ESA (v v unwell/disabled people - increasingly hard to get the points required) or carers (fucking heroes saving that state billions).
Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.
My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.
PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
A reasonable theory. Quite a mad landowner if so. Either he didn’t realise the backlash he’d get or he was REALLY REALLY angry
Honestly if his name gets out and he’s guilty. Wow
Yep. It'll make that old bag who shoved that cat in a wheelie bin look like a much loved national treasure my comparison.
Incidentally, she'll no doubt thank Sunak for putting a stop to all this woke seven bins nonsense. She hasn't got time to work out which is the appropriate bin to shove cats into.
Food waste? If you hadn't cooked the cat, compostable?
Comments
I hope those injured are ok.
However, given the graph is average temperatures, the relevance is limited and, in any event it isn't misleading to have a clearly marked scale that starts somewhere other than zero to assist legibility.
It's the liquid-solid phase change for water at one atmosphere pressure (as any serious climatologist would know). Here's the phase diagram:
https://sciencenotes.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Phase_diagram_of_water.png
In any case, 'normal' has to be understood to *include* a range of variation where the group is itself variable. If I were writing up a biological species, I wouldn't consider a feature evident in 14% of the individuals as 'abnormal' or 'unusual' but well within the normal range of variation.
So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
Or maybe it’s sampling errors after the summer holibobs.
But if I were a Tory I wouldn’t be excited at being just 17 points behind rather than 20…
On Europe the issue was whether we should be more specific and urgent about rejoining the single market or put it on the long finger. The leadership won on the long finger option by preventing any debate on the matter. Which was frustrating to many of us.
On housing targets, the issue was whether we should retain the overall target of 380,000 houses a year or scrap the target to avoid it being used against us by a Tory appeal to nimbys. The leadership lost and we retain the target of 380,000 houses a year, recognising that targets don't build houses, but the national target is underpinned by bottom up policies to help achieve it.
And it was fun as well.
I guess if you get to the stage of having an ice-free Antarctica to soak up the southern hemisphere summer sun then that would put a bit of a dent into it, but that's likely beyond our current experiment in altering the Earth's climate, given that pesky energy transition away from fossil fuels.
To be pro house building was judged to be more important, and honourable, than being pro NIMBY.
It was a good debate. How policy should be agreed.
A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain
Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)
Bizarre
The Green vote is also odd. There is one obvious and maybe about 1 or fewer further seats (where? no idea) where a tactical Green vote might make sense; but nationally if voting tactically the Greens should get approximately zero votes in any seat that could possibly change hands. The polling does not indicate anything like that.
However, the older person could have been arrested for related issues not actually cutting down the tree such as trying to cover up for the younger chap.
Maybe the 60 year old man had proposed to his wife under that tree and she had told him that day that she was leaving him for a woke lefty just stop oil protestor. Do we feel some sympathy for him destroying such an emblematic object for all parties?
Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
As for tactical voting, I'm up for voting tactically, people here are well-informed about politics and voting and can see the logic of tactical voting. But lots of people just don't think that way. They just vote for the party they want. Now, as the election comes closer, Green (and Reform UK) voters may be swayed by tactical voting arguments, but I don't think that means their polling now is wrong, or odd.
During this Parliament I believe the highest Green party poll score is 13%. So, it's a bit higher than before the 2015GE, but not that much higher. On a proportional basis you might expect the Greens to receive 4.5% of the vote at the next GE. That's a bit lower than their current ~6% average in the polls, but not by enough to have a large effect on the result of the GE.
As to potential Reform voters, I'm not so sure. We've clearly seen in recent general elections that the volatility of the voters has increased. Generally speaking, they're not happy. The sources of news that they are using are becoming more fractured - for all I know there might be a lot more news about right-of-Tory parties on youtube, or GB News, than there is in the Guardian, or the BBC. So voting for Reform might seem like a much more normal thing for someone who took their news mostly from those sources.
The Referendum Party received more than 800,000 votes in 1997, and that was at a time when the media was much less fractured. The Reform Party might receive 2 million votes. Sunak and those around him certainly think that they might, otherwise they wouldn't be expending so much effort on trying to win those voters back.
I think you miss my point. I don’t believe this was random mad vandalism. It all looks planned and careful - the fairly expert sawing, the choice of a dark stormy night, the spray to mark the cut
So I think this was a logical person doing something for a real purpose. But did they reckon on the intense national anger?
If they are convicted they might as well emigrate; this is life-ruining stuff
Doubt it'll translate into that vote in a General Election as they won't run a full slate and will be squeezed. But it doesn't shock me they get quite a few people plumping for them in a hypothetical question ahead of an election campaign.
Similarly, the Greens have a following. They may hold up better as they will probably stand in more places and now have a good number of councillors in a fair number of places so will run vaguely visible campaigns in some places. But there will be a big squeeze by Labour in a change election, and I also think they have a big battle on their hands to keep their one seat, and no chance anywhere else, so would be wise to focus resources.
The chap with the farmhouse behind Trump's wall will be pleased.
"Ask Brits or Americans about immigration, and they’ll tell you it’s too high.
"But ask about specific groups of immigrants, and only a minority want numbers reduced. Plenty want an increase!"
Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .
All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.
I think people who can't enjoy music are similar.
'Donald Trump remains the owner of Golf Recreation Scotland, which in turn owns SLC Turnberry.'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turnberry_(golf_course)#Trump_ownership
But Trump International Golf Club Scotland Ltd appear to *manage* the Balmedie (Aberdeen) course.
They’re in for a rude shock if they weren’t expecting much backlash
My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.
PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
It's not the only theory, but it's a good theory although I say so myself.
Also the latest the AMOC shuts down, the less day after tomorrow the resulting scenario.
No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
Honestly if his name gets out and he’s guilty. Wow
Does he mean pensioners?
Laurence Fox
@LozzaFox
·
5m
Definitely off to bed now.
But this recurring cry of
“We are the people’s channel!”
Surely must have run dry at this juncture.
It’s a bunch of salary hounds, devoid of principle, pretending to be freedom fighters.
Comical.
Might as well watch the
@bbc
It’s a good job I don’t write mystery thrillers
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/29/us/georgia-trump-scott-hall-guilty-plea.html?campaign_id=190&emc=edit_ufn_20230929&instance_id=104032&nl=from-the-times®i_id=60783875&segment_id=146086&te=1&user_id=e49d6af97dd9e4b509b1c9bc22c1bd4c
Scott Hall, one of Trump's co-defendants in the Georgia case, has flipped.
Incidentally, she'll no doubt thank Sunak for putting a stop to all this woke seven bins nonsense. She hasn't got time to work out which is the appropriate bin to shove cats into.
@Samfr
·
6h
I'd have thought removing an already existing benefit would be more unpopular than removing a future committment to increase a benefit.
That’s the most surreal thing about this government. But not actually unusual for populist regimes. It’s a classic tactic: permanent opposition to the imagined secretive ruling cabal.
For the rest of your life you will be THAT GUY who chopped down THAT TREE
Thousands will want their bit of revenge
I also see he's got five years probation, $5k fine, 200 hours of litter picking, and the requirement to write a letter of apology to the State of Georgia (!) for his trouble.
That's a pretty attractive deal, frankly, and will give others pause for thought. Get off with a slap on the wrist or expose yourself to a real risk of hard time in defending the Orange One?
Maybe I have missed something?
Sunak: why are we not building far more new roads. People love their cars!!
Crowd: Dunno mate, you tell us, you've been running the country for 13 years.