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The polls are looking a bit tighter for Starmer – politicalbetting.com

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  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Carnyx said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Two trains collide at Aviemore Station with 2 passengers taken to Raigmore Hospital

    Flying Scotsman involved apparently.
    Ah, the steam loco rather than the named train, apparently. It sounds as if it the loco ran into a stationary carriage on the platform with the preserved Strathmore Railway rather than the Scotrail main line, but the latter has (unsurprisingly) been closed as it'd have been on the adjacent platform.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23824696.multiple-injuries-two-trains-collide-aviemore/
    Two Christmases ago we had a lovely short stay up in Aviemore. For me the highlight of the trip was going on the Strathmore Railway through a snow covered landscape. Beautiful.

    I hope those injured are ok.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,581

    Barnesian said:

    Farooq said:

    I have no idea how the polls develop but Sunak seems to be making a clear dividing line between the conservatives and labour

    Also

    Kiwis 49 Italy 3 at half time

    Europe needs just 8 wins in the remaining 20 to win the Ryder Cuo

    He's also making a clear dividing line between Conservatives and sense. Scrapping the winter fuel allowance? I can't remember anything as crazy as that and I'm old enough to remember Brexit.
    From what I understand he wants to means test it

    To be honest my wife and I will receive £600 shortly for the winter fuel allowance tax free, so means testing it would be fairer and we would receive nil
    I think a better solution is to tax it, and free bus passes. If you are poor it will cost you nothing. If you're well off, you pay 40% tax or more.
    Apply NI to pension/investment income too.
    Agreed. Better to simply integrate NI into income tax. NI for employers would need to remain or find another source of tax to replace it.
  • viewcode said:

    The y-axis should start at 0
    0°C is arbitrary, however, so there's not much reason why that's a better starting point... or do you want it to start at 0K?
    The freezing point of water isn't totally arbitrary when talking about global warming.

    However, given the graph is average temperatures, the relevance is limited and, in any event it isn't misleading to have a clearly marked scale that starts somewhere other than zero to assist legibility.
  • AlistairM said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Two trains collide at Aviemore Station with 2 passengers taken to Raigmore Hospital

    Flying Scotsman involved apparently.
    Ah, the steam loco rather than the named train, apparently. It sounds as if it the loco ran into a stationary carriage on the platform with the preserved Strathmore Railway rather than the Scotrail main line, but the latter has (unsurprisingly) been closed as it'd have been on the adjacent platform.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23824696.multiple-injuries-two-trains-collide-aviemore/
    Two Christmases ago we had a lovely short stay up in Aviemore. For me the highlight of the trip was going on the Strathmore Railway through a snow covered landscape. Beautiful.

    I hope those injured are ok.
    Strathspey Railway.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
    Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
    I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
    Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
    Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
    I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
    And Bangladesh.
    The country built on a flood plain?
  • Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
    Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
    I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
    And Bangladesh.
    The highest point in Bangladesh is Saka Haphong, 3,451 feet (1,052 metres).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    AlistairM said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Two trains collide at Aviemore Station with 2 passengers taken to Raigmore Hospital

    Flying Scotsman involved apparently.
    Ah, the steam loco rather than the named train, apparently. It sounds as if it the loco ran into a stationary carriage on the platform with the preserved Strathmore Railway rather than the Scotrail main line, but the latter has (unsurprisingly) been closed as it'd have been on the adjacent platform.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23824696.multiple-injuries-two-trains-collide-aviemore/
    Two Christmases ago we had a lovely short stay up in Aviemore. For me the highlight of the trip was going on the Strathmore Railway through a snow covered landscape. Beautiful.

    I hope those injured are ok.
    Strathspey Railway.
    Quite! Apologies. Too much Argentinian red with the free range pork and apple stew tonight.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    algarkirk said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    (FPT) Perhaps we were right to wonder how a 16 year-old was an experienced tree feller, and also managed to drive himself to the middle of nowhere, and wasn't it convenient that at his age he'd get a slapped wrist.
    Not quite the middle of nowhere - but with either a non-trivial hike of some hectometres and/or the need for a quad bike.
    A 16 year-old would not have a driving licence, which means he is unlikely to own a vehicle.
    It doesn't quite work like that off road in rural/farming communities, and where the nearest policemen are in Newcastle and Carlisle.
    Not having a licence doesn't stop people driving, as any police twitter account will show you.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    viewcode said:

    The y-axis should start at 0
    Nonsense.
    More interesting is the change over the 12 months. I know the orbit is eccentric, but is the change down to different land masses/oceans getting summer?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    TimS said:

    viewcode said:

    The y-axis should start at 0
    0°C is arbitrary, however, so there's not much reason why that's a better starting point... or do you want it to start at 0K?
    It’s not arbitrary, it’s the freezing point of water. Less arbitrary than the scale Rees Mogg is planning for us after they win the next motorists right election.
    Not always.
    It's the liquid-solid phase change for water at one atmosphere pressure (as any serious climatologist would know). Here's the phase diagram:

    https://sciencenotes.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Phase_diagram_of_water.png


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited September 2023

    Carnyx said:

    The idea Gen Z are all vegetarian and vegan is bullshit.

    I've just seen a sign-up list of 65 of them for an event I'm running that asks about special dietary requirements and only 9 are vegetarian or vegan (only 4 are vegan).

    Everyone else? Normal.

    FPT

    I'm not a vegetarian - but it is quite out of order to call them abnormal, subnormal, whatever.

    For one thing, the idea that dietary restrictions are wrong will get you into serious trouble at any sensible workplace.
    Saying that meat-eaters are normal is not identical to calling vegetarians abnormal or subnormal. One of the delights of the English language is that there are a wide variety of words, and so you can choose the precise word for the precise nuance you want to use. Unusual, for example, would work a lot better, and not carry any of the negative connotations that go along with abnormal.
    Sure, but the context and mens rea of the original expression are also important.

    In any case, 'normal' has to be understood to *include* a range of variation where the group is itself variable. If I were writing up a biological species, I wouldn't consider a feature evident in 14% of the individuals as 'abnormal' or 'unusual' but well within the normal range of variation.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.

    Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.

    On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.

    Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
    I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.

    So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    Reading my posts this evening, they are scarily Tory, I need to have a word with myself!
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.

    Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.

    On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.

    Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
    I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.

    So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
    Classically clusters appearing in random(ish) noise, suggesting something that probably isn’t real.
    Or maybe it’s sampling errors after the summer holibobs.
    But if I were a Tory I wouldn’t be excited at being just 17 points behind rather than 20…
  • Carnyx said:

    AlistairM said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Two trains collide at Aviemore Station with 2 passengers taken to Raigmore Hospital

    Flying Scotsman involved apparently.
    Ah, the steam loco rather than the named train, apparently. It sounds as if it the loco ran into a stationary carriage on the platform with the preserved Strathmore Railway rather than the Scotrail main line, but the latter has (unsurprisingly) been closed as it'd have been on the adjacent platform.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23824696.multiple-injuries-two-trains-collide-aviemore/
    Two Christmases ago we had a lovely short stay up in Aviemore. For me the highlight of the trip was going on the Strathmore Railway through a snow covered landscape. Beautiful.

    I hope those injured are ok.
    Strathspey Railway.
    Quite! Apologies. Too much Argentinian red with the free range pork and apple stew tonight.
    I rode the Strathspey to just past Broomhill back in 2019. Hope everyone involved is OK.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
    Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
    I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
    And Bangladesh.
    The highest point in Bangladesh is Saka Haphong, 3,451 feet (1,052 metres).
    OK, some of Bangladesh!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
    Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
    I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
    Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
    https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/265/nasa-un-partnership-gauges-sea-level-threat-to-tuvalu/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
    Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
    I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
    Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
    https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/265/nasa-un-partnership-gauges-sea-level-threat-to-tuvalu/
    Sea level goes up, but deposition of sand etc goes up too.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Reading my posts this evening, they are scarily Tory, I need to have a word with myself!

    Welcome to PB Fairlieblue.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,581

    Barnesian said:

    Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).

    This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...

    Yes it has ended. I was at it.

    Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high.
    Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference ;)
    Sounds fun. Any politics?
    78 policies agreed. Yes - there was some serious political disagreement on Europe and on housing targets.

    On Europe the issue was whether we should be more specific and urgent about rejoining the single market or put it on the long finger. The leadership won on the long finger option by preventing any debate on the matter. Which was frustrating to many of us.

    On housing targets, the issue was whether we should retain the overall target of 380,000 houses a year or scrap the target to avoid it being used against us by a Tory appeal to nimbys. The leadership lost and we retain the target of 380,000 houses a year, recognising that targets don't build houses, but the national target is underpinned by bottom up policies to help achieve it.

    And it was fun as well.
  • viewcode said:

    The y-axis should start at 0
    Nonsense.
    More interesting is the change over the 12 months. I know the orbit is eccentric, but is the change down to different land masses/oceans getting summer?
    Yes. Even if the phase of the eccentricity of the orbit was shifted by six months you'd still have a higher average global surface temperature during northern hemisphere summer, because there is so much more land in the northern hemisphere than the southern hemisphere, and land goes through a much greater seasonal cycle in temperature.

    I guess if you get to the stage of having an ice-free Antarctica to soak up the southern hemisphere summer sun then that would put a bit of a dent into it, but that's likely beyond our current experiment in altering the Earth's climate, given that pesky energy transition away from fossil fuels.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
    Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
    I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
    Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
    https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/265/nasa-un-partnership-gauges-sea-level-threat-to-tuvalu/
    Sea level goes up, but deposition of sand etc goes up too.
    OTOH the (essentially fossil coral reef) islands don't ...
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,581
    edited September 2023
    nico679 said:

    TimS said:

    Barnesian said:

    Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).

    This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...

    Yes it has ended. I was at it.

    Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high.
    Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference ;)
    Sounds fun. Any politics?
    The main politics was the revolt of the Barty tendency against the NIMBYs. Leaving the Lib Dems with accidentally the most pro housebuilding policy of all the parties.
    That was an unfortunate vote . The Tories will go full on the Lib Dems are going to turn your town into a housing estate on steroids.

    The Lib Dem target seats are full of NIMBYISTS and you have to play the hand your dealt . It was shortsighted and self-defeating to vote for that .

    Scrapping the housing target to avoid a NIMBY attack was a minority view of the several thousand experienced activists including many councillors present in the convention hall.

    To be pro house building was judged to be more important, and honourable, than being pro NIMBY.

    It was a good debate. How policy should be agreed.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
    Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
    I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
    Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
    They are not sinking, the waves are rising.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
    Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
    I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
    Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
    https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/265/nasa-un-partnership-gauges-sea-level-threat-to-tuvalu/
    Sea level goes up, but deposition of sand etc goes up too.
    OTOH the (essentially fossil coral reef) islands don't ...
    And there’s a reason we have coastal Rias in places like the South Hams. Deposition doesn’t keep up with sea level rise.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.

    Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.

    On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.

    Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
    I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.

    So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
    The Reform polling figures still strike me as odd. These amount to up to 2 million people are going to vote for a party no-one normal has ever heard of and registers less than zero in normal media coverage. I just find it impossible to believe at the moment.

    The Green vote is also odd. There is one obvious and maybe about 1 or fewer further seats (where? no idea) where a tactical Green vote might make sense; but nationally if voting tactically the Greens should get approximately zero votes in any seat that could possibly change hands. The polling does not indicate anything like that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    So older men can’t behave like total dicks, destroy things that have stood for centuries with no reason or sense or even shame? Donald Trump says hello. Older people can be as idiotic as younger people.

    However, the older person could have been arrested for related issues not actually cutting down the tree such as trying to cover up for the younger chap.

    Maybe the 60 year old man had proposed to his wife under that tree and she had told him that day that she was leaving him for a woke lefty just stop oil protestor. Do we feel some sympathy for him destroying such an emblematic object for all parties?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    The 60-something is No 2 in the arrests line over the tree business. See the Graun.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.

    Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    TimS said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Global heating might just have the opposite effect on Scotland. Things are warmer in Scotland than they "should" be. If fluid circulation changes due to melting sea ice, we might find our climate turning more Faroe than Fareham
    Knowing Scotland’s luck, global warming will halt the gulf stream, and we will be the only country on earth with a worse climate.
    I think the people of the Tuvalu and the Maldives might have a good claim too
    Any evidence that those places are sinking under the waves? Last time I looked there wasn’t.
    https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/265/nasa-un-partnership-gauges-sea-level-threat-to-tuvalu/
    Sea level goes up, but deposition of sand etc goes up too.
    OTOH the (essentially fossil coral reef) islands don't ...
    And there’s a reason we have coastal Rias in places like the South Hams. Deposition doesn’t keep up with sea level rise.
    Or indeed the Outer Hebrides. Loch Maddy would seem to qualify, as well as Dartmouth and the Sal estuary.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Do any of our Scottish PBers have accurate information on what - if anything - has happened to Mr Trump's golf courses up there?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).

    This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...

    Yes it has ended. I was at it.

    Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high.
    Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference ;)
    Sounds fun. Any politics?
    78 policies agreed. Yes - there was some serious political disagreement on Europe and on housing targets.

    On Europe the issue was whether we should be more specific and urgent about rejoining the single market or put it on the long finger. The leadership won on the long finger option by preventing any debate on the matter. Which was frustrating to many of us.

    On housing targets, the issue was whether we should retain the overall target of 380,000 houses a year or scrap the target to avoid it being used against us by a Tory appeal to nimbys. The leadership lost and we retain the target of 380,000 houses a year, recognising that targets don't build houses, but the national target is underpinned by bottom up policies to help achieve it.

    And it was fun as well.
    Glad you enjoyed it. At least you get to debate motions that the membership can overturn the leadership. The SNP used to be like that, back in the day.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    Welcome to PB Prince Andrew.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.

    Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.

    On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.

    Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
    I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.

    So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
    The Reform polling figures still strike me as odd. These amount to up to 2 million people are going to vote for a party no-one normal has ever heard of and registers less than zero in normal media coverage. I just find it impossible to believe at the moment.

    The Green vote is also odd. There is one obvious and maybe about 1 or fewer further seats (where? no idea) where a tactical Green vote might make sense; but nationally if voting tactically the Greens should get approximately zero votes in any seat that could possibly change hands. The polling does not indicate anything like that.
    I kinda agree with your point about Reform UK. However, modern culture is marked by online fragmentation, little pockets of people talking to each other. I could believe there's a substantial pocket of people who are into Reform UK, notwithstanding mainstream media coverage being low, just as I could believe there's a substantial pocket of people who are into crocheting with alpaca wool and we've just not heard about it in the mainstream.

    As for tactical voting, I'm up for voting tactically, people here are well-informed about politics and voting and can see the logic of tactical voting. But lots of people just don't think that way. They just vote for the party they want. Now, as the election comes closer, Green (and Reform UK) voters may be swayed by tactical voting arguments, but I don't think that means their polling now is wrong, or odd.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 4,931
    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    MattW said:

    Do any of our Scottish PBers have accurate information on what - if anything - has happened to Mr Trump's golf courses up there?

    Still going so far as I know.
  • algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.

    Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.

    On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.

    Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
    I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.

    So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
    The Reform polling figures still strike me as odd. These amount to up to 2 million people are going to vote for a party no-one normal has ever heard of and registers less than zero in normal media coverage. I just find it impossible to believe at the moment.

    The Green vote is also odd. There is one obvious and maybe about 1 or fewer further seats (where? no idea) where a tactical Green vote might make sense; but nationally if voting tactically the Greens should get approximately zero votes in any seat that could possibly change hands. The polling does not indicate anything like that.
    The Greens polled as high as 11% before the 2015GE, and then 3.8% at the election itself.

    During this Parliament I believe the highest Green party poll score is 13%. So, it's a bit higher than before the 2015GE, but not that much higher. On a proportional basis you might expect the Greens to receive 4.5% of the vote at the next GE. That's a bit lower than their current ~6% average in the polls, but not by enough to have a large effect on the result of the GE.

    As to potential Reform voters, I'm not so sure. We've clearly seen in recent general elections that the volatility of the voters has increased. Generally speaking, they're not happy. The sources of news that they are using are becoming more fractured - for all I know there might be a lot more news about right-of-Tory parties on youtube, or GB News, than there is in the Guardian, or the BBC. So voting for Reform might seem like a much more normal thing for someone who took their news mostly from those sources.

    The Referendum Party received more than 800,000 votes in 1997, and that was at a time when the media was much less fractured. The Reform Party might receive 2 million votes. Sunak and those around him certainly think that they might, otherwise they wouldn't be expending so much effort on trying to win those voters back.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited September 2023
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.

    Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
    Are you saying I’m touchingly naive?

    I think you miss my point. I don’t believe this was random mad vandalism. It all looks planned and careful - the fairly expert sawing, the choice of a dark stormy night, the spray to mark the cut

    So I think this was a logical person doing something for a real purpose. But did they reckon on the intense national anger?

    If they are convicted they might as well emigrate; this is life-ruining stuff
  • algarkirk said:

    TimS said:

    algarkirk said:

    The recent polls are consistently within the margin of error if you take it that the real figure for the September snapshot is 45-46 Lab, 26-27 Tory. Until we see the next lot (as always) bits of possible drift can't be distinguished from noise.

    Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.

    On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.

    Eyeballing, it seems to me that there was a real, but temporary effect. Polls were stable through July and part of August. Then in August and early September the Tories lost some ground (mainly to Ref rather than Labour). Then Sunak did his meat tax cancellation and the coverage saw a 3-4% gain in the polls. Then people got bored of the meat tax, 7 bins and cancelling climate change and reverted to close to the status quo ante. And here we are.
    I am unconvinced we've seen any real shift in the last month. Let's look further back. Looking at the Wikipedia graph, since the Truss event, Labour have trended down, but only from the high 40s to the mid-40s. No reason for them to panic. The Conservatives crawled up to the high 20s in May, but now seem to be back in the mid-20s. The even longer term view is that they've been basically declining for over 2 years.

    So, where is the vote going instead? Both LibDems and Greens seem to be on slight upward trends. That implies tactical voting at the election will matter. But, as you say, it's Reform UK who appear to have gotten a big boost after Truss, which they've held on to. Instead of worrying about the don't knows, maybe we need to know more about what Reform UK voters might do at an election, particularly if Reform UK don't even stand everywhere.
    The Reform polling figures still strike me as odd. These amount to up to 2 million people are going to vote for a party no-one normal has ever heard of and registers less than zero in normal media coverage. I just find it impossible to believe at the moment.

    The Green vote is also odd. There is one obvious and maybe about 1 or fewer further seats (where? no idea) where a tactical Green vote might make sense; but nationally if voting tactically the Greens should get approximately zero votes in any seat that could possibly change hands. The polling does not indicate anything like that.
    I kinda agree with your point about Reform UK. However, modern culture is marked by online fragmentation, little pockets of people talking to each other. I could believe there's a substantial pocket of people who are into Reform UK, notwithstanding mainstream media coverage being low, just as I could believe there's a substantial pocket of people who are into crocheting with alpaca wool and we've just not heard about it in the mainstream.

    As for tactical voting, I'm up for voting tactically, people here are well-informed about politics and voting and can see the logic of tactical voting. But lots of people just don't think that way. They just vote for the party they want. Now, as the election comes closer, Green (and Reform UK) voters may be swayed by tactical voting arguments, but I don't think that means their polling now is wrong, or odd.
    I think a lot of people know RefUK are the current name of Farage's mob and, like him or not, he's a prominent figure and certainly has a fanbase out there (as well as detractors).

    Doubt it'll translate into that vote in a General Election as they won't run a full slate and will be squeezed. But it doesn't shock me they get quite a few people plumping for them in a hypothetical question ahead of an election campaign.

    Similarly, the Greens have a following. They may hold up better as they will probably stand in more places and now have a good number of councillors in a fair number of places so will run vaguely visible campaigns in some places. But there will be a big squeeze by Labour in a change election, and I also think they have a big battle on their hands to keep their one seat, and no chance anywhere else, so would be wise to focus resources.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Do any of our Scottish PBers have accurate information on what - if anything - has happened to Mr Trump's golf courses up there?

    Still going so far as I know.
    Something will be happening, as ownership is the Trump Organisation and it can no longer do business.

    The chap with the farmhouse behind Trump's wall will be pleased.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?
  • kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    "A society goes to sh1t when old men cut down trees in whose shade they once sat" Greek proverb.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    Someone mentioned this the other day, but worth repeating: https://x.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1707763015649480964?s=20

    "Ask Brits or Americans about immigration, and they’ll tell you it’s too high.

    "But ask about specific groups of immigrants, and only a minority want numbers reduced. Plenty want an increase!"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Leon said:

    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?

    Not necessarily. Remember how the Glasgow bin lorry crash was assuredly a terrorist action? Like that, the tree felling could be something much more everyday. And ecoradicals cutting down the tree is about as likely as a right wing pressure group throwing the Parliament Square statue of Churchill WS into the Thames.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    The takeaway from Hunt in the Times .

    Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .

    All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.



  • kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    At least he wasn't chopped by the 16 year old!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?

    Not necessarily. Remember how the Glasgow bin lorry crash was assuredly a terrorist action? Like that, the tree felling could be something much more everyday. And ecoradicals cutting down the tree is about as likely as a right wing pressure group throwing the Parliament Square statue of Churchill WS into the Thames.
    So what’s your theory? I’m just testing out ideas. I love a good mystery. Also I want this solved and the culprit flogged for a year
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    algarkirk said:

    CON ahead soon? 😈

    Prediction: a proper poll with an under 10 point gap by Christmas. Evidence for this from current trends: Nil. But the election has started and in the current climate meaningless populism shores up the vote, and the Tories in their current guise have plenty more to come. And they have put away the dog whistle and introduced the klaxon.
    That would tend to make the dogs run away
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647
    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.

    Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
    Are you saying I’m touchingly naive?

    I think you miss my point. I don’t believe this was random mad vandalism. It all looks planned and careful - the fairly expert sawing, the choice of a dark stormy night, the spray to mark the cut

    So I think this was a logical person doing something for a real purpose. But did they reckon on the intense national anger?

    If they are convicted they might as well emigrate; this is life-ruining stuff
    I don't think these people can comprehend why it makes people angry. That bit of the brain just isn't there.

    I think people who can't enjoy music are similar.

  • Leon said:

    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?

    Nothing's impossible, but the modus operandi of eco-radicals has generally been to loudly claim responsibility. So it would be pretty surprising. Suspect it's just arseholes, but we'll probably see.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Do any of our Scottish PBers have accurate information on what - if anything - has happened to Mr Trump's golf courses up there?

    Still going so far as I know.
    Something will be happening, as ownership is the Trump Organisation and it can no longer do business.

    The chap with the farmhouse behind Trump's wall will be pleased.
    You surte?

    'Donald Trump remains the owner of Golf Recreation Scotland, which in turn owns SLC Turnberry.'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turnberry_(golf_course)#Trump_ownership

    But Trump International Golf Club Scotland Ltd appear to *manage* the Balmedie (Aberdeen) course.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Do any of our Scottish PBers have accurate information on what - if anything - has happened to Mr Trump's golf courses up there?

    Still going so far as I know.
    Something will be happening, as ownership is the Trump Organisation and it can no longer do business.

    The chap with the farmhouse behind Trump's wall will be pleased.
    I believe the Trump Organization can no longer do business in New York.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,859
    TimS said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Ayrshire won’t have a climate the same as the IoW in your lifetime. It’ll get wetter, and much milder, but will never have the summer rainfall minimum that the island has because it’s in a different location. Its climate is moving towards that of the SW of Vancouver Island and coastal Oregon.

    In 40-50 years the IoW will have a cool sub-Mediterranean climate with summer drought, similar to Vigo or Porto today, as will Sussex and Southern Kent below the downs. Essex, Suffolk and Estuary Kent will have a climate similar to the modern day Valais in Switzerland. Southern Europe will be a scarcely liveable furnace during summer (not a desert, because humidity will rise too. More like the hot semi desert of coastal Gujarat). In the Middle East and South Asia people will be routinely dying from excess heat and humidity.
    That depends on the Gulf Stream continuing as presently. There’s a growing risk of a flip to the current which could leave the UK much colder especially in winter.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    edited September 2023
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
    The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.

    Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
    Are you saying I’m touchingly naive?

    I think you miss my point. I don’t believe this was random mad vandalism. It all looks planned and careful - the fairly expert sawing, the choice of a dark stormy night, the spray to mark the cut

    So I think this was a logical person doing something for a real purpose. But did they reckon on the intense national anger?

    If they are convicted they might as well emigrate; this is life-ruining stuff
    I don't think these people can comprehend why it makes people angry. That bit of the brain just isn't there.

    I think people who can't enjoy music are similar.

    Yes. Sociopathy

    They’re in for a rude shock if they weren’t expecting much backlash
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?

    Not necessarily. Remember how the Glasgow bin lorry crash was assuredly a terrorist action? Like that, the tree felling could be something much more everyday. And ecoradicals cutting down the tree is about as likely as a right wing pressure group throwing the Parliament Square statue of Churchill WS into the Thames.
    So what’s your theory? I’m just testing out ideas. I love a good mystery. Also I want this solved and the culprit flogged for a year
    Still thinking a dispute or grievance ofr some sort, however irrational or otherwise. Could be anywhere. NT, EH and the NP Authority all cover wide areas.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    nico679 said:

    The takeaway from Hunt in the Times .

    Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .

    All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.



    Well to be fair, trashing public services is a transformation...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Leon said:

    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?

    1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.

    My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.

    PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,149
    edited September 2023
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?

    Not necessarily. Remember how the Glasgow bin lorry crash was assuredly a terrorist action? Like that, the tree felling could be something much more everyday. And ecoradicals cutting down the tree is about as likely as a right wing pressure group throwing the Parliament Square statue of Churchill WS into the Thames.
    So what’s your theory? I’m just testing out ideas. I love a good mystery. Also I want this solved and the culprit flogged for a year
    My theory is some people are arseholes, and some arseholes own chainsaws. I base this groundbreaking theory on having met a fair few people, and a proportion of them being arseholes, coupled with the fact B&Q doesn't require that people prove they aren't arseholes before serving them.

    It's not the only theory, but it's a good theory although I say so myself.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    edited September 2023
    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    Farooq said:

    Temperature are higher than during the little ice age? Shock, horror!
    It's up a degree in my lifetime!
    Another few degrees and Scotland would have a pleasant climate. Every time I went down south it seemed 10 degrees warmer. I would like Ayrshire to have have the same climate that the Isle Of Wight currently has. Selfish? Moi?
    Ayrshire won’t have a climate the same as the IoW in your lifetime. It’ll get wetter, and much milder, but will never have the summer rainfall minimum that the island has because it’s in a different location. Its climate is moving towards that of the SW of Vancouver Island and coastal Oregon.

    In 40-50 years the IoW will have a cool sub-Mediterranean climate with summer drought, similar to Vigo or Porto today, as will Sussex and Southern Kent below the downs. Essex, Suffolk and Estuary Kent will have a climate similar to the modern day Valais in Switzerland. Southern Europe will be a scarcely liveable furnace during summer (not a desert, because humidity will rise too. More like the hot semi desert of coastal Gujarat). In the Middle East and South Asia people will be routinely dying from excess heat and humidity.
    That depends on the Gulf Stream continuing as presently. There’s a growing risk of a flip to the current which could leave the UK much colder especially in winter.
    A 20-30% likelihood. So not immaterial. But most likely is further heating, at least in our lifetimes. And not the Gulf Stream, that will continue come what may. The North Atlantic drift, powered by the Atlantic Meriodional Overturning Circulation.

    Also the latest the AMOC shuts down, the less day after tomorrow the resulting scenario.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
    The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
    How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?

    No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    The takeaway from Hunt in the Times .

    Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .

    All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.

    Well to be fair, trashing public services is a transformation...
    It's a transformation the Tories have already effected - hard to trash what you've already trashed.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
    The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
    How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?

    No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
    It feels like this all points to some embittered old misanthrope with a local neighbour or planning grudge, who put his son / nephew up to doing the deed.
  • Leon said:

    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?

    1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.

    My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.

    PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
    Surely recent events actually make Sycamore Gap a MORE appropriate name than it was when the sycamore was there?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?

    1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.

    My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.

    PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
    A reasonable theory. Quite a mad landowner if so. Either he didn’t realise the backlash he’d get or he was REALLY REALLY angry

    Honestly if his name gets out and he’s guilty. Wow
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:
    (FPT) Perhaps we were right to wonder how a 16 year-old was an experienced tree feller, and also managed to drive himself to the middle of nowhere, and wasn't it convenient that at his age he'd get a slapped wrist.
    Not quite the middle of nowhere - but with either a non-trivial hike of some hectometres and/or the need for a quad bike.
    A 16 year-old would not have a driving licence, which means he is unlikely to own
    a vehicle.
    You’ve not spent much time in Northumberland then?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited September 2023
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
    The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
    How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?

    No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
    How many phones will have connected with the cellphone masts around Sycamore Gap that night? Not many.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    edited September 2023
    ..
  • Barnesian said:

    Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).

    This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...

    Yes it has ended. I was at it.

    Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high.
    Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference ;)
    78 policies? Is that some kind of record?
  • nico679 said:

    The takeaway from Hunt in the Times .

    Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .

    All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.



    He claims 100K people "move off work and into benefit without any obligation to look for work"

    Does he mean pensioners?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
    The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
    How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?

    No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
    How many phones will have connected with the cellphone masts around Sycamore Gap that night? Not many.
    Can they do that? I know a person can be tracked by cell signal triangulations but can they do it in reverse?
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
    The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
    How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?

    No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
    They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.

    Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
    Are you saying I’m touchingly naive?

    I think you miss my point. I don’t believe this was random mad vandalism. It all looks planned and careful - the fairly expert sawing, the choice of a dark stormy night, the spray to mark the cut

    So I think this was a logical person doing something for a real purpose. But did they reckon on the intense national anger?

    If they are convicted they might as well emigrate; this is life-ruining stuff
    I don't think these people can comprehend why it makes people angry. That bit of the brain just isn't there.

    I think people who can't enjoy music are similar.

    That's a leap.
  • GB News ferrets in a sack latest:


    Laurence Fox
    @LozzaFox
    ·
    5m
    Definitely off to bed now.

    But this recurring cry of

    “We are the people’s channel!”

    Surely must have run dry at this juncture.

    It’s a bunch of salary hounds, devoid of principle, pretending to be freedom fighters.

    Comical.

    Might as well watch the
    @bbc
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited September 2023

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
    The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
    How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?

    No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
    They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
    Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that

    It’s a good job I don’t write mystery thrillers
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    It is charming to find that Leon is bewildered. On the face of it he appears like a man of the world who knows that the human race is easily capable of torture, genocide and other horrendous evils; and that people do odd things. A bloke lived for 35 years on top of a rock. An Iranian died recently who had never washed in about 90 years. There are people who think AI is interesting and useful. Some weirdos travel the earth by aeroplane and photograph their drinks orders.

    Others chop down scenic trees. It's all jolly regrettable, but I don't really credit those who, after living on planet earth for more than a few days, are surprised or bewildered at human folly.
    Are you saying I’m touchingly naive?

    I think you miss my point. I don’t believe this was random mad vandalism. It all looks planned and careful - the fairly expert sawing, the choice of a dark stormy night, the spray to mark the cut

    So I think this was a logical person doing something for a real purpose. But did they reckon on the intense national anger?

    If they are convicted they might as well emigrate; this is life-ruining stuff
    I don't think these people can comprehend why it makes people angry. That bit of the brain just isn't there.

    I think people who can't enjoy music are similar.

    That's a leap.
    No it’s a good analogy. A fundamental bit of the healthy rounded human psyche is missing
  • Sunak seems to have spent today yet again attacking his own government policies.

  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?

    1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.

    My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.

    PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
    A reasonable theory. Quite a mad landowner if so. Either he didn’t realise the backlash he’d get or he was REALLY REALLY angry

    Honestly if his name gets out and he’s guilty. Wow
    Yep. It'll make that old bag who shoved that cat in a wheelie bin look like a much loved national treasure my comparison.

    Incidentally, she'll no doubt thank Sunak for putting a stop to all this woke seven bins nonsense. She hasn't got time to work out which is the appropriate bin to shove cats into.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
    The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
    How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?

    No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
    They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
    Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that
    OTOH thgere won't be that many masts in the area, and quite a few signals from phones in cars (and on cars) along the main road. Easy enough to eliminate those by seeing how quickly they hand over to the next mast along. But that is a lot of work and you need to do it till only a few are left, and then you have to work through the local residents etc. Useful confirmatory evidence, sure, but pinning down a suspect? I don't see it.
  • Sam Freedman
    @Samfr
    ·
    6h
    I'd have thought removing an already existing benefit would be more unpopular than removing a future committment to increase a benefit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
    The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
    How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?

    No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
    They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
    Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that

    It’s a good job I don’t write mystery thrillers
    Just set them in Göbekli Tepe at the height of its activity - no mobiles to worry about.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    Sunak seems to have spent today yet again attacking his own government policies.

    The current Tory government are like Rottweilers in opposition.

    That’s the most surreal thing about this government. But not actually unusual for populist regimes. It’s a classic tactic: permanent opposition to the imagined secretive ruling cabal.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
    The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
    How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?

    No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
    They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
    Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that

    It’s a good job I don’t write mystery thrillers
    Is their mobile signal on Hadrian's Wall in middle of nowhere?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?

    1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.

    My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.

    PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
    A reasonable theory. Quite a mad landowner if so. Either he didn’t realise the backlash he’d get or he was REALLY REALLY angry

    Honestly if his name gets out and he’s guilty. Wow
    Yep. It'll make that old bag who shoved that cat in a wheelie bin look like a much loved national treasure my comparison.

    Incidentally, she'll no doubt thank Sunak for putting a stop to all this woke seven bins nonsense. She hasn't got time to work out which is the appropriate bin to shove cats into.
    I honestly think you’d have to emigrate

    For the rest of your life you will be THAT GUY who chopped down THAT TREE

    Thousands will want their bit of revenge
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    The 60 year old arrested for Sycamore Gap is bewildering. If he is guilty of this

    A teen might have done this as an act of TikTok wankery, not realising how bad it would look. A 60 year old man would surely be aware of the hatred that would come his way. He will be the most despised person in Britain

    Even if he is a local landowner with a justified grudge it’s a senseless act of self harm (as well as hideous vandalism)

    Bizarre

    I thought it was a 16 year old?
    A 60 year old now arrested
    Shopped by the 16 year old?
    Yes. That was the theory on TwitterX. The cops went for the lad as he would spill the beans

    Father and son? Uncle and nephew?
    The cops went for the lad because he was daft enough to bring his phone with him, and the police identified him by looking at phone records?
    How does that work? They trawled all the phone records of everyone in northern England?

    No, I reckon someone snitched on the kid. And the kid dobbed in Dad. All absurd speculation of course
    They only need to look at the records for the mobile phone masts that a mobile would connect to from up at the tree.
    Fair enough. I didn’t know you could do that

    It’s a good job I don’t write mystery thrillers
    Fairly certain it's the sort of data that the mobile phone companies are obliged to store for a certain period of time so that they can hand it over to the police if requested, but I can't find a specific reference for it right now. If I was the police it's definitely data I would have asked for back when RIPA was being written.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    nico679 said:

    The takeaway from Hunt in the Times .

    Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .

    All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.



    He claims 100K people "move off work and into benefit without any obligation to look for work"

    Does he mean pensioners?

    Is that really a description of the way the unemployed and disabled are treated? It can hardly be anything other than pensioners, but the numbers don't seem right - you'd expect something more like 0.6m a year at a very rough estimate (65 million divided by 85 years).
  • rcs1000 said:
    That's interesting.

    I also see he's got five years probation, $5k fine, 200 hours of litter picking, and the requirement to write a letter of apology to the State of Georgia (!) for his trouble.

    That's a pretty attractive deal, frankly, and will give others pause for thought. Get off with a slap on the wrist or expose yourself to a real risk of hard time in defending the Orange One?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    edited September 2023
    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    The takeaway from Hunt in the Times .

    Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .

    All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.



    He claims 100K people "move off work and into benefit without any obligation to look for work"

    Does he mean pensioners?

    Is that really a description of the way the unemployed and disabled are treated? It can hardly be anything other than pensioners, but the numbers don't seem right - you'd expect something more like 0.6m a year at a very rough estimate (65 million divided by 85 years).
    My experience of the system is that the only people (under 65) who go from work to a benefit without any obligations to work are in the Support Group of ESA (v v unwell/disabled people - increasingly hard to get the points required) or carers (fucking heroes saving that state billions).

    Maybe I have missed something?
  • Barnesian said:

    Incidentally, has the Lib Dem conference ended yet? It's barely been mentioned on here (at least as far as I've seen...), and there's been no threader about it (again, unless I've missed one).

    This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...

    Yes it has ended. I was at it.

    Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high.
    Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference ;)
    78 policies? Is that some kind of record?
    Could be policies from 1978?
  • I’m very disappointed in PB
  • TimS said:

    Sunak seems to have spent today yet again attacking his own government policies.

    The current Tory government are like Rottweilers in opposition.

    That’s the most surreal thing about this government. But not actually unusual for populist regimes. It’s a classic tactic: permanent opposition to the imagined secretive ruling cabal.
    Yep.

    Sunak: why are we not building far more new roads. People love their cars!!

    Crowd: Dunno mate, you tell us, you've been running the country for 13 years.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    The takeaway from Hunt in the Times .

    Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .

    All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.



    He claims 100K people "move off work and into benefit without any obligation to look for work"

    Does he mean pensioners?

    Is that really a description of the way the unemployed and disabled are treated? It can hardly be anything other than pensioners, but the numbers don't seem right - you'd expect something more like 0.6m a year at a very rough estimate (65 million divided by 85 years).
    My experience of the system is that the only people (under 65) who go from work to a benefit without any obligations to work are in the Support Group of ESA (v v unwell/disabled people - increasingly hard to get the points required) or carers (fucking heroes saving that state billions).

    Maybe I have missed something?
    It’s skivers vs strivers again. “Don’t blame us, blame ‘them’”
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    Carnyx said:

    nico679 said:

    The takeaway from Hunt in the Times .

    Cuts to public services and the benefits bill to find savings to dish out tax cuts .

    All spun as the “ biggest transformation” of public services in a generation.



    He claims 100K people "move off work and into benefit without any obligation to look for work"

    Does he mean pensioners?

    Is that really a description of the way the unemployed and disabled are treated? It can hardly be anything other than pensioners, but the numbers don't seem right - you'd expect something more like 0.6m a year at a very rough estimate (65 million divided by 85 years).
    My experience of the system is that the only people (under 65) who go from work to a benefit without any obligations to work are in the Support Group of ESA (v v unwell/disabled people - increasingly hard to get the points required) or carers (fucking heroes saving that state billions).

    Maybe I have missed something?
    Quite so. No doubt we'll find out more tomorrow.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,647

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Actually maybe this makes it more likely it was eco radicals making a point. So they WANT the furore and attention?

    1. Eco warriors are not going to chop down a tree as a protest. 2. Eco warriors leave their clear signature on any protest to ensure they get the publicity. It's not Eco warriors.

    My money's on a local landowner who feels thwarted by the National Trust / English Heritage / Northumberland National Park.

    PS I see on Google Maps Sycamore Gap has been renamed Sycamore Stump.
    A reasonable theory. Quite a mad landowner if so. Either he didn’t realise the backlash he’d get or he was REALLY REALLY angry

    Honestly if his name gets out and he’s guilty. Wow
    Yep. It'll make that old bag who shoved that cat in a wheelie bin look like a much loved national treasure my comparison.

    Incidentally, she'll no doubt thank Sunak for putting a stop to all this woke seven bins nonsense. She hasn't got time to work out which is the appropriate bin to shove cats into.
    Food waste? If you hadn't cooked the cat, compostable?
This discussion has been closed.