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The polls are looking a bit tighter for Starmer – politicalbetting.com
The polls are looking a bit tighter for Starmer – politicalbetting.com
For a long time my only General Election bet has been that Labour would not get an overall majority. Under the terms of the betting markets they could still have the most seats and have what is an effect an overall majority for me to win.
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https://twitter.com/search?q=lizard eats goat&src=typed_query
- memories of the Truss disaster fade (likely but won't be enough by itself)
- he finally adopts popular policies with traction (unlikely but possible)
- he stops being wooden and gets the vision thing (unlikely but possible)
- the media and the public start to despise Starmer (unlikely but possible)
- a left-wing breakaway party reduces Labour's share (VERY unlikely but just about conceivable)
- the Lib-Dems start to eat into Labour's share not the Tories' significantly and the Scots Nats stage a recovery (VERY unlikely and unlikely respectively)
- events, dear boy (by definition very difficult to predict)
or some combination of the above. Overall, I'd give it a 15-20% chance. But of course it will be much easier to backcast what happened from 2027 and why it had to happen than it is to look ahead now.
This seems to sum up the current Lib Dem's main problem: they may have brilliant ideas to sort the country out, but they're so invisible no-one knows about them...
I'm not a vegetarian - but it is quite out of order to call them abnormal, subnormal, whatever.
For one thing, the idea that dietary restrictions are wrong will get you into serious trouble at any sensible workplace.
Sycamore Gap story develops.
2. Whilst they would make less of a mess of things they don't have the brilliant ideas
3. They don't have the people to communicate the ideas they do have
4. Even if people thought they had policies and people worth voting for, in FPTP starting 3rd or worse in the vast majority of constituencies, voters will be reluctant to "waste" their vote.
Otherwise all going well.
At this rate of progress can't take long Shirley?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/66957427
I do try to think the best of my fellow hominines.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWwOJlOI1nU
The normalisation of inactivity. Anything over 25km is a long walk.
Disco the first night 'til 1am. Karaoke the second night, Glee club the third night. Quite exhausting but morale very high.
Packed. And Bournemouth at its sunny best. And 78 policies agreed. We know how to have fun. Wait for the Tory Conference
Prediction/betting involves educated calculation and reflection about what the most likely unknowns in the future are, and how it changes. This may well be and often is guesswork, but as long as the formbook is fallible it's part of the picture.
On the polling only a Labour majority is possible. The betting says NOM is a 23% chance. I think it is significantly higher, and NOM remains value.
Also
Kiwis 49 Italy 3 at half time
Europe needs just 8 wins in the remaining 20 to win the Ryder Cuo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sq3xY4Q5_nc
*miles per hour, not milia passuum per horas - the problem being that Roman hours depeneded on the length of day and therefore time of year.
It’s almost like they aren’t really there as you expect to be watching lots of their games but not worth the time until the knockouts which might be their last game. So two All Blacks games of note.
To be honest my wife and I will receive £600 shortly for the winter fuel allowance tax free, so means testing it would be fairer and we would receive nil
That was an amazing result winning by just 56 votes , one of which was mine !.
"The party with a massive lead... Let's make ourselves different to them!"
Labour lead averaging a tadge over 20.
Labour lead averaging a tadge under 20, as now.
It might be the start of a more significant polling change. Or it might be another of the oscillations that have been going on for months.
Conference next. Let's see what has happened once everyone is back from the "seaside".
You might bump into Suella Braverman.
But the signs are there!
Now, it could just be someone going undercover in a care home, or that ilk, but maybe this time it isn't.
In 40-50 years the IoW will have a cool sub-Mediterranean climate with summer drought, similar to Vigo or Porto today, as will Sussex and Southern Kent below the downs. Essex, Suffolk and Estuary Kent will have a climate similar to the modern day Valais in Switzerland. Southern Europe will be a scarcely liveable furnace during summer (not a desert, because humidity will rise too. More like the hot semi desert of coastal Gujarat). In the Middle East and South Asia people will be routinely dying from excess heat and humidity.
Detested, shunn’d, by saunt an sinner,
How daur ye set your fit upon her,
Sae fine a Lady!
Gae somewhere else and seek your dinner,
On some poor body.
Swith, in some beggar’s haffet squattle;
There ye may creep, and sprawl, and sprattle,
Wi ither kindred, jumping cattle,
In shoals and nations;
Whare horn nor bane ne’er daur unsettle,
Your thick plantations.
[...]
O wad some Pow’r the giftie gie us
To see oursels as others see us!
It wad frae monie a blunder free us
An foolish notion:
What airs in dress an gait wad lea’e us,
And ev’n Devotion!
(Too niche?)
The extension of the Roman road (B6318) from Gilsland to Langholm is one of the wonderful unknown journeys no-one ever does and veers all over the place so much you can get lost on this ostensibly fairly major road which isn't.
Making various goodies taxable, on the other hand...
This is not normal.
Phew!
https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/transport/6204595/two-trains-collided-near-aviemore/
The Lib Dem target seats are full of NIMBYISTS and you have to play the hand your dealt . It was shortsighted and self-defeating to vote for that .
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23824696.multiple-injuries-two-trains-collide-aviemore/
And when you consider how any sort of honesty and integrity in electioneering is treated both by the media and voter it is not possible to blame them.
Broadly, quite dry, very grey, bits of east coast drizzle, and temperature averages dropping by more from current the further north you get - a steeper temperature gradient with Scotland getting a lot colder and London staying close to current.
And I guess we'll still get the odd bit from the south, West and east to mix it up a bit, just a lot less than now.
For the rest of the week it was hot when we got up in the morning, ridiculously hot during the day, and uncomfortably hot in the evening. It never cooled down.
I grew up in a British context where warm equals good. Suddenly I understood why Madrilenos head for the North coast in summer and why heatwaves - not floods or hurricanes but basic heat - are the weather phenomenon most inimical to human life. Because they can last an entire season, with no respite except air conditioning.
So to me, “good” weather used to mean hot and sunny. Now it means temperatures in a range between 25 and 32, and no higher.
Incidentally, I think the latest road collision data shows that, for the first time, walking is more dangerous than driving per mile.
Mr Roberts talks about how safe the roads are - safe for drivers.