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The London Mayoral race is getting very tight – politicalbetting.com
The London Mayoral race is getting very tight – politicalbetting.com
London Mayoral Voting Intention:Sadiq Khan (LAB): 35%Susan Hall (CON): 32%Howard Cox (REF): 8%Rob Blackie (LDM): 5%Zoe Garbett (GRN): 5%Via @JLPartnersPolls.
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/27/car-drivers-charged-blackwall-tunnel-toll/ (£££)
The cricket county championship is still up in the air between Essex and Surry, which must be unusual as late as this.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/65020050
And you have to add a toll to the Blackwell tunnel because the whole point of the Silvertown tunnel is to relief some of hte traffic that currently uses the Blackwell tunnel..
If you have say, a hundred homes you rent at far below the prevailing market rate, this won’t shift the market (much). There is then a delta between the artificially low rate and the market rate. Subletting is then inevitable.
“Ample” is the number of properties required to shift the market price.
That's with Jezza standing and getting 5%.
Hall seems to be doing pretty well anyway if she is just 3% behind Khan in London, a city which voted for Labour by a 16% margin even when they suffered a landslide defeat to the Conservatives nationally in 2019
That, and lots of prayers that Corbyn stands.
Too many dropped catches in the Hampshire game.
In a free market if rents get high people invest in constructing homes to let, which brings prices back down to equilibrium.
In a free market if rents are held low, that prevents construction which leaves a shortage of homes which brings prices up to a new, higher equilibrium. Which is why rent controls are then counterproductive.
But we have a regulated market already that is ensuring we have too few houses anyway. Thanks to planning we have gone decades without getting enough homes built, so rental costs are already massively inflated over what they should be in a free market.
The problem is we have all the harms of rental control, but without the benefits. Worst of both worlds.
I would favour deregulation and liberalisation as a solution. Which would result in a huge building craze which would bring prices back down to where they should be.
But if you want to keep regulations and NIMBYism there's no reason not to have rent controls too. The harm of shortages already happens anyway, so what difference does it make?
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPUK12_102_17.png
(not so toasty if you're in the Scottish Highlands, sorry)
A still toastier 34C in SW France, likely smashing the October all time record
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPFR12_102_17.png
And a decidedly non-autumnal 38C in Southern Iberia (October record is 38.8C, though note these max forecasts can be a bit toppy for Alentejo during heatwaves).
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPSP12_102_17.png
Of more geopolitical relevance, still in the high 20s in Southern and Eastern Ukraine, with no rainfall for a while. And still touching 30C in parts of the Balkans where the average at this time of year is the high teens.
Meanwhile for balance the first snow in the high Caucasus of Georgia, where of course I'm heading on holiday in a couple of weeks. I always bring shit weather wherever I go. Temperatures there at or a little below average.
https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPTK12_156_25.png
"People purport to be gay when they're not actually gay"
Home Secretary @SuellaBraverman accuses asylum seekers of lying about their sexuality to gain refugee status in the UK
https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1707044664463806598
What reason, other than either her own bigotry, or desire to appeal to bigots, is there for this ?
"But you don't drink, Sunil."
Oh, yeah!
The big downside would be that disappointed Corbynites despise him. They'd vote for Hall in order to stop him from winning.
For whatever reason, we're not getting impressive people queuing up to be Mayors.
In fact the only people I know who use the Blackwell tunnel don't have vote because they don't live in London.
Our cabinet contains Rishi Sunak, Suella Braverman, Grant Shapps and Gillian Keegan.
Their opposite numbers are led by Keir Starmer and include Annelise Dodds (and until recently Richard Burgon, Laura Pidcock and Ian Lavery).
The Civil Service is led by Simon Case and numbers Bernadette Kelly, Christopher Wormald and Susan Acland-Hood among its senior staff.
All of these would be out of their depth running site security at Molineux in June.
The last real standout candidate for mayor anywhere major, was Andy Street.
My understanding is that FPTP elections are so called because there is a 'winning post' at, in our case, 325 MPs at which party x can form a government - rather than describing the method of elections in individual constituencies. The latter wouldn't make sense.
On the rental side properties are cheaper. If there were any properties to rent.
There is so much stuff going on that he hasn't a clue how to sort.
Personally, I never liked the concept of putting governance of London or other cities in the hands of one man or woman, devoid of the collective decision making that takes place in the controlling group of a local authority.
[To be clear, I'm not block capitals shouty with you, RobD, I'm block capitals shouty with this NONSENSICAL naming convention.]
Red Wall VI (23 Sep):
Labour 45% (-3)
Conservative 31% (-1)
Reform UK 10% (+4)
Lib Dem 6% (-1)
Green 6% (+3)
Plaid 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)
Changes +/- 3 Sep
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1707062541308792880
Surely that was what it originally meant though? Surely when the term was coined, whoever coined it had in mind 325 MPs to form a government, rather than the completely postless who-can-get-the-most-votes-in-a-constituency? And it's meaning has changed through misunderstanding? Nothing else would make sense.
At this moment, which of the following do Red Wall voters think would be the better PM for the UK? (23 September)
Starmer 42% (-1)
Sunak 36% (+4)
Rishi Sunak's approval rating in the Red Wall is -11%.
Rishi Sunak Red Wall Net Approval Rating (23 September):
Disapprove: 44% (-2)
Approve: 33% (+2)
Net: -11% (+4)
Keir Starmer's approval rating in the Red Wall is +7%.
Keir Starmer Red Wall Net Approval Rating (23 September):
Approve: 38% (+1)
Disapprove: 31% (-1)
Net: +7% (+2)
Changes +/- 3 September
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton
Or people are voting Reform out of disgust at current Conservative policies and politicians!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12333013/Immigration-law-firms-LIE-authorities-win-asylum.html
You could perhaps see him taking on an expanded Levelling Up brief, with responsibility for sorting out infrastructure and our failing councils. Hard to see where Nandy would go if that were to happen, though...
So this just happened in the Turkish league…. 😬😂
https://twitter.com/ProjectFootball/status/1706731253511107033
WHat we call FPTP would be better called "The longest jump".
The quantity of buildings won't change, because that's already restricted. We have the harms already, without the benefits. Everything that is wrong with rental controls (which is a lot) already is happening anyway.
Deregulation is preferable in my view, but pick your poison. If you want regulations and NIMBYism, then rental controls would fit in with those regulations, because the harms of rental control (shortage of housing) already exists.
The solution is liberalisation, but if you reject liberalisation, don't complain when regulations meet regulations.
"First-past-the-post voting (FPTP or FPP)[1] is an electoral system wherein voters cast a vote for a single candidate, and the candidate with the most votes wins the election. Analogous systems for multi-winner contests are known as plurality block voting or "block voting" systems; both FPTP and block voting are "plurality" systems in that the winner needs only a plurality (the greatest number) of the votes and not an absolute majority (greater than half). The term first-past-the-post is a metaphor from horse racing of the plurality-voted candidate winning such a race; the electoral system is formally called single-member plurality voting (SMP) when used in single-member districts, and informally called choose-one voting in contrast to ranked voting[2] or score voting.[3]"
Conservative and reform are on 41% and I think reform is too high, and what happens to their vote in the seats they do not stand
Is Labour loosing votes to the Greens ?
The person in the lead at the end is the winner
That describes both the end of a race and our electoral system
I could have sworn that I'd read about it being used around the time of the Second Reform Act, which would obviously be before that Australian usage, but can't find any reference to it online. Google ngram records it from the 1850s, but the first couple of results pages of that I looked at referred only to sporting use. And searching specifically for "first past the post election" puts the first result in 1973!
More like an eating contest than a horse race.
The risk for Rishi is that he increases the salience of red meat issues but only has a rubber bone to offer, so voters go for the real thing rather than the decaf version.
Could all be noise, of course.
The end is when the contest is finished.
I know who I’d favour in a cat fight between Rayner and Wes Streeting if it came down to it. Hint: not Streeting.
(Lisa Nandy is Shadow Cabinet Minister for International Development.)
London Mayor doesn't have much power in practice. It's a figurehead. And Hall as the Tory figurehead in London would just make me laugh. It would extend the Tory joke.
Whoever is first past that is duly elected.
"The Labour candidate is past his sell by date."
"How much harm can they do?"
That's what a lot of us thought in 2008. Can I remind you how that ended?
https://twitter.com/GaryLineker/status/1706321163255677289
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/04/reform-uk-field-candidate-against-every-tory-next-election-richard-tice
then?
Counting is no different to reviewing the tape to see who was first. It doesn't determine the winner, the winner was determined at the end of the race (when the horse crossed the line/10pm election night).