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Trump 12% behind in New Hampshire – politicalbetting.com
Trump 12% behind in New Hampshire – politicalbetting.com
This is the first mention of New Hampshire on a PB thread ahead of the 2024 American presidential election.
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And this is rather Trump's problem: he has (very slightly) gained ground on Biden since 2020, but he's done it in places that are rather unhelpful, increasing his share in California and New York (which won't flip), and Florida and Deep South (which are already handily Red).
In Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, there is no evidence Trump has done anything but go backwards.
One might also suspect that the whole "fake electors" thing, might work as a very effective GOTV for Democrats in these States.
But good to see that Mike is noting that Trump is also old.
Being indicted for multiple crimes might also be mentioned as a 'basic electoral problem'.
'This is horrifying': Top New Jersey Democrats call on Bob Menendez to resign after his second indictment
Democrats figured there would be new developments in the Bob Menendez investigation, but the charges are far more serious than any of them anticipated.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/22/new-jersey-democrats-menendez-indictment-00117693
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4218467-mccarthy-vows-to-strip-ukraine-money-from-pentagon-bill-after-greene-no-vote/
BREAKING: Republican 2024 presidential candidate Donald Trump gets devastating news as a massive lawsuit is filed that legal experts are already saying “could lead to Trump getting removed in all 50 states by the U.S. Supreme Court."
But it gets even WORSE for Donald Trump…
The lawsuit was filed in Minnesota — and the Minnesota Secretary of State just announced that he will remove Trump from the ballot if the Minnesota Supreme Court rules that he can. Legal experts are already saying that this will create a “domino effect” that can lead to Trump being removed from the ballot “in all 50 states.”
To make matters worse for Trump, Harvard’s most famous Constitutional Law expert says that the lawsuit is “rock solid as a legal matter, relying entirely on existing law and indisputable facts of public record."
He is under indictment in multiple jurisdictions and his reelection would cause the fall of NATO and a serious challenge to American Democracy. I don't know if he is mad, but I am pretty sure he is bad.
I'll take "boring" thanks Mike if it means no more Capitol riots, insurrection, and anarchy. Heck, I'll even take 'old.'
It reminds me of the time I was talking with a Palestinian Arab trader in a Jerusalem souk. 'I love this place, there's such a buzz,' I gushed.
He looked me in the eye and spoke softly, 'I'd given anything to swap this "buzz" for the peace and quiet of England.'
They want the fishing grounds and hate the MPA around it, which the Royal Navy occasionally police. So if the UK have decided to dance on leaseback then I suspect this is actually about alliance building in the Indian Ocean area. The UN vote is meaningless - people forget the sort of states actually in the UN and how they are bought and corralled by China. Fascinating that it was the African Union that initiated it.
The base is a strategic one and absolutely needed given China's ambitions to colonise every reef and atoll in the area.
So it will be kept come what may.
It is technically not aimed at Trump but at the Minnesota Secretary of State, who has said it isn’t his job to determine whether the nominated candidates are eligible. (He’s a Democrat, incidentally.)
The rest of it is much less certain. I don’t see it going anywhere without Trump’s conviction in a court of law first.
And even in that event, I wouldn’t trust the current Scotus not to strike it down.
TLDR - the facts are mostly as stated but the conclusions are a mix of wishful thinking and exaggeration.
An utterly shameful affair. Very hard to imagine the white Falkland Islanders ever getting the same kind of treatment.
This is a really good article on Elon Musk.
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=359867
...Xi met Syrian President Bashar Assad in the southern Chinese city of Hangzhou, which is hosting the 15-day sports competition.
"In the face of the unstable and uncertain international situation, China is willing to work with Syria to firmly support each other ... and jointly safeguard international fairness and justice," Xi said in a video clip posted online by state broadcaster CCTV.
Assad's visit parallels in some ways that of Russian President Vladimir Putin last year for the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics. Both leaders are virtual pariahs in the West but welcomed by China as it tries to expand its global influence and promote an alternative to the U.S.-led international order...
Love the quote.
The Fugitive (1993) is thirty years old this year.
The cigarette thing baffles me. Presumably as you move forward there is nothing to stop 41 year olds buying cigarettes for their 40 year old spouse.
Had it not been for two senior MP’s, one Labour (Peter Shore) and one Conservative (Bernard Braine) the Falklands/Malvinas would have been under joint sovereignty by 1983. Of course quite a lot of young men would still be alive.
I find it bewildering that a group of 5 or 6 House representatives who are backing Putin in Ukraine are managing to hold the House and the country to ransom. Those that took forever to vote for McCarthy as Speaker have been vindicated.
What is Mauritius intending to do for the Chagossians?
There are a lot of things to dislike about Musk including his cosying up to Tucker Carlson and other right wing nuts.
BUT he is doing the right thing in an incredibly important way with Tesla, without him the transition to electric cars would be far slower. Tesla's success is forcing other car makers to try to follow suit, the trouble is they mostly lose money on electric cars while making money on ICE cars. Tesla's margin on its cars is high and their cars efficiency is also high, add in the Supercharger network and you can see why others are having difficulty competing.
https://techxplore.com/news/2023-09-electric-shift-stalls-volkswagen.html
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/.io
The fun thing about the electoral college improvement is that it also seems to be driven by reducing racial polarization. The Dems are losing their lock on Black and Hispanic voters, but those voters get down-weighted by the Electoral College.
Is it that he really wants the UK to hold onto BIOT?
That the Mail have pointed out to him who pays his wages?
The he sees an opportunity to make trouble for a not-Boris PM, and can't help himself?
F1: will probably put up the pre-race ramble mid-afternoon due to the 6am race start.
Smoking: if smoking is banned it'll be very bad for the finances as smokers bring in way more than they cost in healthcare, unlike drinkers.
SNP MP ‘shunned’ after criticising party’s handling of sex claims
Lisa Cameron faces being ousted from her seat after she challenged the leadership’s handling of harassment allegations against Patrick Grady, the party’s former chief whip at Westminster
An SNP MP has mounted a challenge to Humza Yousaf’s authority after threatening to force a by-election if she is ousted as a candidate for the next general election.
Dr Lisa Cameron, the MP for East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow, claims her constituency’s Westminster campaign committee has backed a party worker to contest the seat at the next general election, instead of her.
She claims she has been “ostracised” by the SNP after she challenged how the leadership handled sexual harassment allegations against Patrick Grady, the party’s former chief whip at Westminster.
Cameron, a former consultant clinical psychologist, told the Daily Mirror that she spoke out after Ian Blackford, the former SNP Westminster leader, said in a group meeting that MPs should offer their “absolute full support” to Grady, according to a leaked recording of the event. Grady was suspended from the SNP for six months following sexual harassment allegations.
Grady was accused of inappropriately touching a 19-year-old party staff member in 2016 during a night out. He had his SNP membership restored in December 2022 but Cameron claims she questioned why the experience of the victim was not being prioritised.
“I was treated as if I was saying something outlandish. I was made to feel I was out of step with the party. I felt ostracised,” she said. “After I spoke up in one of the meetings and said, ‘Shouldn’t we be supporting the victim?’ people were quite hostile towards me. I couldn’t go into the tea room, for instance — people wouldn’t speak to me.
Cameron is now being challenged by Grant Costello, the SNP’s digital manager, for selection in the seat she currently holds. She said that she had gathered the 50 nominations required and intended to contest the constituency at the general election. Polls close in local branches on October 12.
Cameron said she would have to consider her future and her family if she did not win the nomination, and added: “It would be natural for me to think about what else I would be doing. I have other skills, so I would not completely rule out the possibility of a by-election.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-mp-shunned-after-criticising-partys-handling-of-sex-claims-rq3kxbwgn
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/sep/22/rhino-numbers-rebound-as-global-figures-reveal-a-win-for-conservation-aoe
Confusion over SNP independence strategy as Flynn pushes ‘majority’
Stephen Flynn says the SNP needs a majority of seats, but had already agreed with Humza Yousaf to target ‘the most seats’
Humza Yousaf’s independence strategy has suffered another blow after it was repeatedly contradicted by his party’s Westminster leader.
Stephen Flynn twice said during a television interview that the SNP would need to win “a majority” of constituencies in Scotland at the general election to secure a mandate for secession talks.
This goes against a motion jointly proposed by Yousaf, the first minister, and Flynn for next month’s SNP conference. The motion says that “if the SNP subsequently wins the most seats at the general election in Scotland, the Scottish government is empowered to begin immediate negotiations with the UK government to give democratic effect to Scotland becoming an independent country”.
“The most seats” does not mean a majority and there is confusion about what would be involved in negotiations. Yousaf has suggested that they could include talks to formalise independence, but close aides have briefed that it would more likely be to try to agree a second independence referendum.
Flynn leant into the latter camp during an interview on Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge on Sky News. He said that if the SNP won “a majority of seats, which I’m very confident that we will in the general election next year, then that’ll be a mandate for us to give democratic effect to independence”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/confusion-over-snp-independence-strategy-as-flynn-pushes-majority-30hnnm02k
Yes Musk is the biggest arsehole on the planet, but with a bit of hard hard work and the support of those around him, he might one day become the biggest arsehole on a different planet.
Since the 1990s, wide-ranging ‘continuation bills’ have been passed each year, which basically say that the Federal government continues to do business as usual, with increases for inflation and some specific increases for certain departments. It usually amounts to a single Bill running to several thousand pages of paper, that the Congressemen and women have little opportunity to read, let alone amend.
Gaetz argues that the size of the Federaal government is out of control, and for years has been unable to balance its budget, so it’s imperative that the expenditure at least comes close to matching the income.
Any Bill that’s only on Ukraine spending wil pass easily, there’s only half a dozen on each side that oppose it.
Of course, better than that would be the mandate coming from Holyrood, but Westminster apparently doesn't believe in that kind of democracy any more.
On smoking 21 years ago when my first granddaughter was born my daughter told her husband and me that we would not be allowed access to our daughter /granddaughter if we continued to smoke
Whilst I was not a heavy smoker ( maybe 10 a day ) it was the hardest thing I have ever done but now I cannot abide being near cigarette smoke
A few years ago my practice nurse at our surgery informed me it was a vital decision as due to an underlying condition it ultimately saved me serious and complex health problems
Yes, one of the biggest reasons behind the constant continuation bills, is that the congresscritters don’t want to be held accountable for specific cuts to individual programmes.
I'd hope the vast majority of teachers being educated adults themselves wouldn't be dumb enough to smoke or vape?
And it's already illegal for children to smoke and vape.
The fact the latter do is because prohibition does not work, which is the problem with the policy, but I'm not sure how you'd expect it to effect education staffing levels?
Watch your mouth.
We also shouldn't be too starry eyed about the other side. For China this is strategic - elbowing the West out of the Indian Ocean - and for Mauritius it's about money.
The use of "they" when referring to decision other people made is normal. We aren't obliged to use the "we" pronoun for actions taken by the British state. Indeed, if you want to seek to emphasise the fact that decisions are sometimes made despite the people not because of them, then the "they" pronoun is effective.
Also, I don't know how old OLB is, but 1968 is before I was born. Is there really a "we" to speak of here? If you want to emphasise that kind of implied participation by citizenship, then you are very much into the kind of territory favoured by those who would see "us" pay reparations for what "we" did as a country 300 years ago.
I didn't expect you Pronoun Patrol to claim you as one of its members, but just goes to show you can never be too sure.
I'd expect Mauritius to be just as exploitative of it, if not more so, and largely uninterested in the fate of the Chagos Islanders.
They don't believe in anything.
Cassidy Hutchinson had to flee DC for safety after Jan. 6 testimony
https://thehill.com/homenews/4219099-cassidy-hutchinson-had-to-flee-dc-for-safety-after-jan-6-testimony/amp/
Or did you think Cameron and May won a majority of seats in 2010 and 2017 respectively?
Must say it sounds a bit extreme to ban you for seeing your granddaughter if you continued to smoke. I can understand your daughter not wanting you to light up around her baby but it seems a bit OTT to say if you smoke at all, you can't see your granddaughter?
I have better things to do with my time, so I will bid you good day.
It's a big card to play, but sounds like everyone won in the end.
If you're having a bad day we can hug it out. I'm here for you.
Tesla came out of the existence of custom conversions to electric if ICE, for the rich. That combined with mass production to bring prices down. The key insight was that you start at the high end and work down.
Nearly anyone in the automotive industry could have done this.
Similarly, once evidence accumulated that water cooling batteries meant they could easily deal with high charging rates, superchargers were inevitable. Tesla created a division to build them, that is its own profit centre - so now it’s into compound expansion, largely self funded.
The supercharging network in the IS has defeated the competing, official standard. Why? Because they built more chargers and the they work more often.
It's the naïve self-flaggelating Britain haters (like you) who I'm calling out.
Maybe you have no-one who loves you but you can always talk to your fellow creatures in the muck.
It’s also an absolutely brilliant premise for an article, to spend some weeks following Musk’s own Twitter timeline to see who he follows and what they have to say.
If Russia wins of course then it’s a different matter but dangerous to for their reputation. Stalemate is probably the preferred outcome for the US right, then they can say I told you so.
Now if this was the case either they should be also rans in the primaries and polling, or they must have amazing positives to counter balance? So what are they?
Their ages are not a particular electoral problem, unless the franchise gets extended to include British opinion writers too.
Winners all round.
Being a patriot doesn't stop me being critical of the crimes of empire. This one within my lifetime.
The fact that the Chagossians were deported to Mauritius says to me that we understood the islands to be part of Mauritius.
Well, treasonous, anyway.
Interesting solution, with vulnerable road users grouped together.
That’s an entirely separate issue from whether the islands should be given to Mauritius. Given their strategic importance, I’m inclined to think not.
Alternatively, sell the islands to the USA and compensate the islanders out of the proceeds.