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The Mid Beds betting remains very tight – politicalbetting.com
The Mid Beds betting remains very tight – politicalbetting.com
I cannot recall a Westminster by-election where the betting has been as tight as we’re seeing in Mid Bedfordshire which takes place in four weeks time.
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Someone in the audience wondered why it was that there weren't reliable records from monastic communities, and he came with a the answer to his question - he believed that the Vatican was holding a great store of secret documents that they had taken from the monasteries of Ireland.
Just what is it about conspiratorial thinking that people find so attractive?
Whatever happened to the E coast motorway that was supposed to follow the bridge, anyway?
In some accounts there was a foot crossing of the Humber in Roman times, a couple of miles upstream. Looking down from the road deck now it seems impossible, but presumably the river was very different in character then.
A brilliant piece of engineering, but you can never escape that neither side has very much to attract you across from the other.
1. Competitiveness
Clearly this is lacking in a game such as tonight's. The game is over before it begins. Completely predictable.
FAIL
2. Skill/ability
Yes, France have that in abundance and no, Namibia do not. But France don't need to show much of it to win, because the opponents are so hopeless. Watching people do skills can be interesting, but those guys who do keep-ups and ball juggling get their gigs on high streets for change thrown into a hat. More people want to watch skills happen under pressure from competent opponents.
PARTIAL FAIL
3. Emotion
Because of the predictability there is no real consequence to this match. A win for France and even the bonus point was guaranteed. Their qualification wasn't in the balance in this match, and Namibia were always going to be going home. No joy, no disappointment. Nobody watching had their heart racing.
FAIL
4. Escapism
So yeah, you could sit and watch the point rack up and forget about work for a couple of hours. Fair enough. But closer games are more diverting that this. It was the emptiest of diversions.
SUCCESS IF YOU'RE DESPERATE
5. Socialising
You can watch a match with mates. With interesting matches, there'll be less talking and more watching. With boring matches, you can catch up, the match is just an excuse to bond.
DEPENDS
That's me trying to be as generous as I can. The above isn't good. It's no better than watching any old nonsense. Some TV movie or a sport you don't care at all about. It fills time, and it might be an excuse to catch up with a mate. You can see some skilled people not really needing to stretch their ability. That's it.
Against that is the creeping realisation that there are only about 10-15 countries in the rugby world. Crowbarring in 20 reeks of desperation. A sport trying to make itself relevant beyond its very narrow confines. Like a former star who's now doing cabaret at Butlins. It's not something you watch and think "wow, that could be me one day!" I don't think kids in Namibia will be rushing to be like their rugby heroes.
But it's a WORLD Cup and they qualify through the African section so they deserve to be there. Of course it's boring watching them get thrashed but the majority (not all) of rugby union matches are mind numbingly dull anyway.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1705016247606235563
"Kevin Dyson Local Democracy Reporter
@KevinDy04896975
Conservative Alan Lamont is elected at the fourth stage. Interestingly the second preference votes saw Conservatives pick up 151 to SNPs 150 from those who chose Labour with their first preference."
https://twitter.com/KevinDy04896975
If politicians in Europe continue to fail to deliver on this then I don't see any limit to how voters will go, sadly.
My guesstimate would be 40% (chance) Labour, 40% LD, 20% Con.
That makes this an "OK" (rather than great) bet, but I'm far from certain the LDs will win.
Sure, they were working the seat for months. But then Labour turned up and outgunned them and now the polling shows it's a two-horse race between them and the Conservatives.
My bet is that they are now out the picture for the same reason they are at a national level.
Fri ARG v SAM. Argentina were surprisingly poor in their opening game against England, while Samoa were not really tested against Chile. But this game is effectively a knockout match to decide which of the two qualify for the quarter finals, and both sides will raise their game. I expect Argentina to play better tonight (they cant be much worse). Both sides are very physical especially Samoa, and I would not be surprised to see a red card – or two!! Samoa to win by 6
'This young mans reckless behaviour sets a terrible example for other players which endangers not just other players and officials but the 74,000 spectators inside the stadium'.
As well as the ban, he will have to attend a Slow Speed School which has already been pioneered by Steve Borthwick.
‘Owen has been an incredibly influential leader,’ says Borthwick
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/sep/21/steve-borthwick-owen-farrell-england-chile-rugby-world-cup
Not in a good way.
Could go any way
There will be significant money attached to being there, even if they get thrashed. The team get to play in front of sold-out crowds in huge stadia, and Namibian people and officials get to enjoy a trip to France for the event. Millions will be watching on TV back home, and inspired by the national team being on the World’s biggest stage.
As others have said, rugby is a meritocratic sport, and there’s many fewer surprise results than in football, but top level rugby is just brilliant to watch. Will any of us ever forget Wilkinson’s drop goal in 2003, in packed out pubs at nine o’clock in the morning?
The A493 from Tywyn to Dolgellau goes through a number of small villages. One of them is my old stamping ground of Llwyngwril.
If I read the map aright, they have kept the limit at 30 from Llangelynin to Llwyngwril, reduced it to 20 at Llwyngwril itself, *kept it at 20* from Llwyngwril to Friog, and *increased* it to 30 going through Friog itself.
If correct, that's madness.
And if not, the map can't be relied on.
But there, Drakeford couldn't even spell Llwyngwril.
I am the new headline writer on the sports desk of The Times.
What do you think about my Ryder Cup headline?
For Argentina it was inclusion into the tri nations Southern Hemisphere completion. For Fiji the Drua participating in the Southern Hemisphere premier rugby competition.
There is no path for them to gain experience against better sides and to improve
Their sevens team have been hammered, recently, by Kenya. A side whose sevens game is very good and who benefitted from inclusion on the sevens circuit.
For Namibia beating Tunisia, Morocco, Zimbabwe and a few other African no hopers every four years does nothing. They can improve, there is no Will in the international game to help them.
The implementation has been bizarre and the petition grows day by day with 371,980 signatures of which 95% are from Wales and nearly 5% from England raising the real prospect of English day and weekend trippers avoiding the Welsh holiday areas reflected in concerns coming from the industry
I know this triggers some but the count shows no sign of abating
https://petitions.senedd.wales/petitions/245548
There is not a lot of the summer season left before the mud slows the tanks again anyway but there is perhaps enough for a serious attack on Tokmak.
More minor countries should take a look at what Kenya has done, perhaps it’s easier to keep a Sevens team than a national 15s team, most of whom would play abroad in SA or European leagues rather than locally.
I’ll be at the local Sevens here in the sandpit in a couple of months’ time, although to be honest it’s more of a massive party than a serious watch of the competition!
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today 3-m&geo=GB&q=Welsh postcodes
My heart goes out to the folk of Mid Beds. I’d be fair set to firebomb all three party HQs by now.
That’s a brave line to take when Rishi Sunak has way more money than Zac Goldsmith!
"There are many serious issues facing this country and as Prime Minister I have to decide which ones to tackle first. So naturally I prioritised the ones that don’t exist."
The time to get ready for the offensive meant time to set up a lot of defences.
It starts with mocking those who turn up to climate change summits in private planes, but quickly goes into retail local politics, with Conservatives pointing at Sadiq Khan and Mark Drakeford as evidence that Labour want to make cars something that only the rich have, and everyone else can get the bus.
Same with the ‘meat tax’. Fillet steak and caviar for the climate summit attendees, but bugs and salad for the rest of us.
The thing is, that these are actual discussions happening in academia and at these international summits. The WEF really did publish a paper with the title “Welcome to 2030. I own nothing, have no privacy, and life has never been better”
https://web.archive.org/web/20161125135500/https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/shopping-i-can-t-really-remember-what-that-is
Poland - Ukraine Grain Beef, a Thread!
I notice that almost nobody is getting this, so since I used to be a CEO of a global food company for 7 years...
Here is an explanation.
First we need to suss out if Poland has any legal standing...
https://twitter.com/Carl_Rehnberg2/status/1704497121821331670
It’s really happening, in the real world.
Once again there is reputable polling that shows you’re out of touch.
Man who set up 20mph petition thinks rollout will cost Welsh Labour dearly
https://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/man-who-set-up-20mph-27761473#ICID=Android_DailyPostNewsApp_AppShare
http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4
http://wxmaps.org/pix/soil4
This should guarantee dry enough surfaces even with more rainfall until late in Octigercat least.
Interesting - BBC Verify (are they called now?) pulling Rishi Sunak's pants down on his climate change straw men. Short article:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66878893
The only claim that stands up is the claim of relatively rapid (to other advanced economies) of reduction of emissions. The rest is baloney, and a screeching halt since it may impact on (I suggest) those who he thinks are his core voters.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/bbc-disinformation-correspondent-accused-of-lying-on-her-cv/
Emails provided to House Oversight Chair Jim Comer included no smoking guns.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/09/21/biden-james-comer-emails-00117464
...While there is significant evidence that Hunter — who has admitted to struggling with substance abuse at the time — made trading on his father’s name a centerpiece of his dealings with foreign business associates, Republicans have yet to turn up direct evidence* that Joe Biden benefited personally or that he took any official action as a result of those connections...
* Or any shred of evidence at all.
The impeachment effort is a travesty - and includes demonstrable lies
..A May, 27, 2016 schedule card includes a call with former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. Hunter Biden was copied on the day’s schedule. It’s already been reported that Biden was also due to attend the one-year anniversary of the passing of his son, Beau, back home in Delaware. Comer had been pointing to this scheduling item, since it was also emailed to then-Vice President Biden under a pseudonym email address. Comer even said the vice president was sending a secret message to his son that he was about to fire the prosecutor. As recently as last week, Comer included that email on a list of “evidence” of Joe Biden’s “involvement in his family’s influence peddling schemes.”
The Washington Post had debunked this a few weeks ago by noting that parliament had fired the prosecutor two months prior to Hunter Biden being looped on the day’s itinerary. The only new information in the unredacted version was a phone number of an aide, the sources said...
The real world seems to be that our PM has engaged in a dishonest smear campaign, which he kicked off just as Parliament went into recess.
Neatly avoiding Parliamentary scrutiny of his shoddy policy changes.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=VG0nAT9xOHk
Priorities, priorities.
It’s hard to see a global increase of 0.3°; it is much easier to see your rivers being filled with sewage and your beaches covered in dead sealife.
My pet theory is that most people really do care about environmental issues, but are turned off by global intangibles. Labour’s job is to frame the argument correctly.
Labour’s taxes and restrictions on motorists, on the other hand, are very clear for everyone to see in London and Wales.
One of my ongoing complaints about British politics is its lack of realism: what is necessary to achieve the task and deploying the resources necessary to achieve it. Do you see any - and I mean any - party doing the necessary planning for a naval blockade?
Satire is no longer possible in British politics.
https://www.cfoc.org.uk/index.php/2021/10/09/how-pro-car-extremists-cheated-a-cambridgeshire-consultation-and-won/
But two things to remember:
The important one is that opponents of anything new are always louder than supporters. It's easy peasy for a small number of furious opponents to outshout a quietly content majority.
The other is that a lot of innovations take more than a week to settle down.
Can't be sure, but I suspect the ULEZ fury is beginning to dissipate, except amongst the hardcore.
To get overexcited at instant reactions is to risk looking silly.
They tanked 5 points last week. This week has been Truss-level embarrassment. What happens as we head into conference season - are they going to announce that if elected to government they will reverse Keir Starmers policy of forcing everyone to eat pineapple on pizza?
Happy anniversary. I’ll be observing the moment of silence at 12.30 today.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats/migrants-detected-crossing-the-english-channel-in-small-boats-last-7-days
I’m not convinced. Will be interesting to see if Sunak’s gas guzzler’s charter this week might help them sneak home. It’s a rural seat, though better served by public transport than many.
I can't wait for the Tory campaign for the Senedd - vote for me and I'll not actually do anything because speed limits are set by councils. But I will be telling those councils that people should be allowed to speed through villages. Not your own village though see, only Other People's Villages.
It is run by the Senedd petition committee and for those claiming they have signed it then they would have had to return a verification to the Senedd otherwise their signature is void
The attempts to undermine the objections actually only enhance it
The verification notice received from the Senedd when submitting a signature:-
Click this link to sign the petition:
We want the Welsh Government to rescind and remove the disastrous 20mph law
https://petitions.senedd.wales/signatures/1801869/verify?token=cNZ3-Ow-hFVxcT--duIR
Thanks,
The Petitions team
Senedd
________________________________________
Cliciwch ar y linc i lofnodi’r ddeiseb:
Rydym am i Lywodraeth Cymru ddiddymu’r gyfraith drychinebus ynghylch y terfyn cyflymder o 20mya
https://deisebau.senedd.cymru/llofnodion/1801869/gwirio?token=cNZ3-Ow-hFVxcT--duIR
Diolch,
Tîm Deisebau
Y Senedd
Badly conceived and implemented traffic removal measure implemented by a *Tory Council* against the wishes of residents and businesses.
Tories then lost the election and the Lab/LD coalition removed the measures. Based on a dodgy survey which officers told councillors to ignore as the qual data showed support.
And the piece is written by a Tory cycling group!
I know quite a lot about the meat issue. There is an objective problem with ever-rising consumption, since intensive farms are dependent on massive soya and grain imports (mostly from South America), which in turn depend on deforestation, which produces lots of greenhouse gases (animal agriculture produces more greenhouses gases than all the cars on the planet), and creates a dependency on a maritime supply chain and anyway can't go on indefinitely as the land isn't infinite. Thus lots of charities and think tanks believe it'd be a Good Thing if we transitioned to eating less meat (and less intensively reared. Dimbleby's food strategy report commissioned by the Government recommended a target of 30% reduction in meat consumption. I eat meat myself so I'm by no means a zealot on it, but I do recognise the issue.
However, it's a consensus of nearly everyone familiar with the issue that a meat tax is such a no-no for voters that it's not even worth asking parties to consider it. I seem to remember some Green Party interest, but Labour and LibDems would certainly go nowhere near it. The pressure is therefore for encouragement of alternative proteins, and stopping actually pushing people to eat more meat (government-funded advertising, minimum meat requirements for school, etc.). Sunak is therefore definitely attacking a straw man when he says he won't have a meat tax - nor will anyone else.
https://x.com/robertkennedyjr/status/1704997011865391445?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
We need more plant-based foods and despite a consolidation in the market this year volume and choice will continue to grow. Plant-based will be great for the meat sector as it takes the pressure off and removes the need to rear animals quite as intensely and damagingly.
A smallish number of people sending in multiple identical responses each, all at the pro car end of the options?
Would "pro-car cheats" be preferable as a headline?
It's the commonest real name on PB, isn't it?