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LAB edges up in the Mid Beds betting – politicalbetting.com
LAB edges up in the Mid Beds betting – politicalbetting.com
The election date is October 19th so there’s some time for movement.
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Expectations for UK growth downgraded as high interest rates hamper the economy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/09/19/uk-economy-weak-argentina-warns-oecd/ (£££)
Coming to a Mid-Beds leaflet near you.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1704102137301512223?t=uixp5PAXDxgJzwXMKTiQLA&s=19
My car if I'm at 20 then I need to be in third gear to maintain that and in third gear minor changes in foot pressure (or slope of the ground) can lead to accelerating or decelerating.
If I'm at 30 then I can cruise (with or without cruise control) in fifth gear and minor slope/pressure changes don't result in sudden speed changes. Indeed if exiting a 30 and going to National Speed Limit then may need to drop down from fifth to fourth in order to rapidly accelerate.
Bigger issue is the fuel efficiency. Cruising at 30 in fifth is far more fuel efficient than at 20 in third, in my vehicle at least.
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1704093966583415080?t=kZdPTuoacHmPMFiF2ZtB9Q&s=19
Labour leader to use meeting with French president to ‘attempt to get a much better deal for the UK’ with the EU
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/19/macron-cufflinks-keir-starmer-arsenal-shirt-elysee-paris/ (£££)
Starmer rarely wears cufflinks and Macron supports Marseille.
Oddly terrifying.
A bit like being married.
Besides, Labour has a ceiling. Many people, let alone disillusioned Conservatives, would never vote Labour. The Lib Dem ceiling is much higher, so if anybody is going to displace the Tories, it will be the Lib Dems.
Value for money is now with the Lib Dems, I think.
So I can understand why Labour are pushing on in MidBeds. If they can win that then they can win any seat. The challenge for the LibDems is what do we do in response?
It isn't my position, but increasing numbers want it. I want Sir Ed Davey to readopt rejoin as a policy, And a penny on tax for education. Then see what happens in the polls.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-66851939
This could come down to the campaign on the ground.
It's obviously a fairly unusual constituency and the result could be like Brecon and Radnor 1985 (36%, 34%, 28%).
And if you care about the environment for example then EV at 20 or EV at 30 is clean either way. But petrol at 20 can be less clean than petrol at 30.
Of course that's for cruising. Rapid and repeated acceleration/deceleration or stopping and starting is far worse than which speed you are doing.
Any Council that thinks its a good idea to put a red light on a roundabout, except major ones like motorway junctions, needs to be sent on a one way rocket to Mars.
Lab, low forties. Tories around 30 is my bet. The margin as we speak is, in my view 10 to 12 points
If I'm driving at 30 and I can see ahead that my car will reach the lights on red then I will take my foot off and naturally decelerate slowly (again EVs operate differently as they'd brake by doing this) and aim to reach the light just as its turning green so I'll never stop in the first place. Can't always do it, but there's more margin for adaptability there than if you're already going slowly.
Other destinations are available. I was going to say the sun originally, but thought I'd mix it up.
But right now, if you ask people the numbers going to vote Tory look less than 30.
The numbers of deaths for long term exposure to air pollution in the UK are put at 28,000 to 36,000:
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/health-matters-air-pollution/health-matters-air-pollution
If you say the population of Wales is 4.5% of the UK, then a straight line pro rata gives 1,260 to 1,620 Welsh deaths due to poor quality air each year.
So to reduce the number of pedestrian deaths from RTA's from 10, the Welsh Government is risking perhaps hundreds more deaths annually from increased air pollution caused by journeys that take 50% longer and make air quality poorer for 50% longer.
It is also worth pointing out that as every journey takes 50% longer*, the risk of a vehicle being in a collision rises too. The chance of a child running out into a car rises by 50%. Yes, the child might not be so badly injured, but it is still a significantly enhanced risk.
* This is of course slightly less than 50% longer, because of the time taken for the vehicle to get from 20 mph to 30 mph. But the bigger point is still valid.
The fact quite a few people say to a pollster that they'd like to be back in an ideal world doesn't overcome those problems and doesn't mean it strongly motivates those people to switch to a party with a rejoin (rather than move closer) manifesto pledge.
Though as recently as 2019 most new cars were still manual transmission and many new cars sold today are still manuals. And many people don't have new cars of course, like myself.
Drag Force = 1/2 x ρ x v^2 x Cd x A
If that would constitute "a key plank of Brand's defence" should matters ever come to court, he really is in massive trouble, as it's incredibly weak.
As many including myself have mentioned whether you are accelerating or not matters a lot more than drag - doing 30 while cruising at 30 is far more efficient than doing 30 while ragging your vehicle from 0 to 70. You might not appreciate this fact, I understand.
And again, gears matter. While I'm driving I typically have the real time MPG displayed on my dashboard, which I appreciate is an estimate but still a reasonable estimate. Cruising at 30 in fifth displays a better MPG than cruising at 20 in third does.
I have never quite understood why people feel the need to spend vast sums of hard earnt so they are driving a car that is less than 3 years old.
Mine is happiest in 5th at 30mph, when not in neutral. It has a 6th and a 7th though...
Bath has recently introduced large 20 mph zones. Some if not most of them are not roads that really need it, and its possible to view it as part of a wider anti car agenda (make is annoying enough and people will get on the bus or train, or use the park and ride - except of course they don't they just come and moan on PB...)
People often seem bemused that actions have unforeseen consequences. My all time favourite is mandating GP's will see patients within a certain time, leading to the GP's limiting appointments and a scramble to phone at 8 am. Miss out and the GP will not see you at all, but all appointments are within x time...
Anyhoo.
Deltapoll Westminster VI
LAB: 47% (+1)
CON: 23% (-5)
LDM: 10% (=)
GRN: 7% (=)
RFM: 6% (+1)
SNP: 4% (+1)
As noneoftheabove wrote above, modern cars are better designed than old cars were, so they last longer but they can also handle things prior ones couldn't.
21-21 on “Personality”
Boris used to beat Sir Keir by 30-40 points
I struggle to see any way that the Tories can turn it round. In a GE campaign, the time when normal people/undecided’s can be swayed, a big personality could have made a difference. But they don’t have one
Mr. Pioneers, I do wonder if Musk has any idea what he bought or why people use(d) Twitter.
Putting up a login barrier is bad enough. A paywall will just destroy it.
Not sure if other social media has ever committed suicide.
Was interested to find they had an extra gear added to the KdF design to allow the driver to cruise along at official German marching pace, so the orficer could stay at the head of his column of troops in luxury. A bit too slow for our road hogs, though. .
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This is the involvement of the fire service
https://news.sky.com/story/fire-service-staff-to-stop-speeding-motorists-in-wales-ahead-of-new-20mph-speed-limit-12931695
How dreadful! A public agency which rescues drivers and their victims from crashes is engaged in education to prevent crashes.
How is this different from preventing fires by educational activities, such as inspections and advice on smoke alarms?
Especially as many crashes end in fires.
Big G, no one is saying there is no involvement from the fire service. I was doing it years ago, and my last day in the job involved a talk at a Sixth-form college chatting to new/ learner drivers about the Fatal Four. What I'm taking issue with is your rabid assertion that this is new and that firefighters will be "enforcing" it. Even The Drake can't give firefighters the same powers as the rozzers.
For the portion of a journey that used to be driven at 30 mph, it can now only be driven at 20 mph. Let us say it was 3 miles. It will now take 9 minutes instead of 6 minutes. That is three extra minutes the car is creating pollution; three extra minutes opportunity for a child to have a collission with it.
I am not evangelical about keeping 30 mph limits. But to fail to address the other side of the ledger from a change is just ignoring that there are consequences.
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (-4)
LDEM: 12% (-)
GRN: 8% (+2)
REF: 4% (+1)
via
@IpsosUK
, 09 - 12 Sep
No doubt the Home Secretary will have tendered her resignation already, if only because of this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66855830.
Cruise control aiding sticking to the speed limit is a good point and as many cars cruise controls have a minimum speed of 25mph that's another reason why 30 mph speed limits is better than 20mph ones. 👍
They're always going on about not enough police, anyway, so what's not to like?
The paper comes as Sir Keir Starmer is in Paris to meet President Macron for talks on Labour’s plan to bring Britain closer to the EU if he wins the next election.
Macron is known to be a strong supporter of the associate membership proposal, which a diplomatic source said is crafted to appeal to a future Labour government. EU leaders will begin talks on deeper integration and streamlined decision-making, with a target date of 2030 to allow the bloc to enlarge eastwards to include Ukraine and the Western Balkans.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/french-german-plan-for-eu-inner-circle-with-membership-for-uk-pkhn5vsmm
Justification for doing 100mph, I suppose. This debate is getting increasingly entertaining.
So are we suggesting something about the gearing on cars completely offsets these two effects?
When I bought it, it had a 7 year warranty, which at the time was quite unusual other cars still had a 3 year warranty.
Very well built vehicle, so no reason not to still be driving it.
I reckon it’ll be a long period in opposition. And probably a well deserved one
Suggesting the gears matters, does indeed suggest that the gearing matters.
I imagine its the same with bikes too. All but the most basic have different gears too, don't they? Cycling in one gear while at a speed you're maintaining, does that require a different amount of effort than accelerating from a standing start to that speed?
The Tories won the 2015GE by 6.6pp. In all of 2014 the largest poll lead for the then Tory government was 3pp (twice).
So, well, obviously swingback to the government happens. We should expect some swingback to happen. But how much? And from what baseline?
Well, those are the judgements that make people money. But, "not enough" and "from too far behind" would seem to be pretty solid answers to start with.
The smallest poll lead for Labour so far this year is 10pp. I guess the Tory optimists can make the case for only losing by 6pp - but even that wouldn't be enough to deny Labour a majority.
Traditional cruise control at town speed is a bad idea, although a lot of modern cars do have “active cruise” which starts and stops with the car in front.
AN SNP politician was embroiled in a foul-mouthed rammy on social media about the behaviour of Rangers fans and the Tartan Army.
James Dornan branded one opponent a “f*****g moron” with a “blow-up girlfriend”, and called another a “Union Jock” amid a furious back-and-forth with anonymous trolls.
Otherwise the Tour de France wouldn't be quite so impressive.
"Rolf Degen
@DegenRolf
All over the world, the more affluent people showed more pro-social behavior. https://psyarxiv.com/zc5a3/"
https://twitter.com/DegenRolf/status/1703776185878978900
Two simple questions to Macron:
1. Regulatory alignment or regulatory equivalence, in both goods and services?
2. Freedom of movement of people, yes/no?
Just as in a car it takes exponentially more effort to maintain 100 mph than 50mph, even if 50mph is more fuel efficient than 20 mph.
There tends to be with these things a 'sweet spot' where maintaining momentum requires minimal effort.
If you cruise at roughly 10kph (or whatever else you cruise at) is that easier or harder than getting from 0 to 10kph.
Only 81% of eligible voters were registered north of the border last year — the lowest proportion in the UK
Up to one million people in Scotland are missing from the electoral register or incorrectly registered, meaning almost a fifth of the electorate are ineligible to vote.
Young people, private renters and those who have recently moved home are most likely to be affected, according to research.
The study found that proportionally fewer eligible voters in Scotland were registered compared with other parts of the UK.
The Electoral Commission, an independent body which oversees elections and commissioned the research, warned the system needed “urgent reforms” to allow people to register more easily.
It suggested that registration could be automated if the Passport Office shared its data directly with electoral registration officers, or if registration were integrated as part of university enrolment or application for driving licences.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/one-million-scottish-people-missing-from-electoral-register-2vk8qggll
Sone people were victim blaming as early as 2015. I wonder if O’Brien is actually capable of self awareness.
But if there was a collision, man, it would release some energy....
‘We’ve cut carbon emissions by decimating working-class communities’: the leader of the GMB union on the folly of net zero
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/weve-cut-carbon-emissions-by-decimating-working-class-communities-the-leader-of-the-gmb-union-on-the-folly-of-net-zero/
- The joyous thing is that the modern Labour Party isn't just signed up to Net Zero, they're signed up to Ulez, LTNs and 20mph, destroying our home-grown energy industry, and a host of the most unpopular and anti-working class policies that could be imagined. And they think they'll be in power longer than New Labour?
"The Plan That Nearly Collapsed the UK", VisualEconomik EN, Sep 11 2023, duration 12 mins, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG7hWH_z6_o
A testament to Sunak’s success in making politics boring again.
Assume we’ve already done the new Ipsos poll:
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 44% (-1)
CON: 24% (-4)
LDEM: 12% (-)
GRN: 8% (+2)
REF: 4% (+1)
via @IpsosUK, 09 - 12 Sep
No way are Green getting 8% so you can add a good 5% on to the Lab/LD total (and 2% to Tory from Ref).
LLG 64% vs RefCon 28%: I think that’s the biggest gap to date even during Truss.