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Sunak – are we approaching the end days? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,065
edited September 2023 in General
imageSunak – are we approaching the end days? – politicalbetting.com

This morning sees what are probably the worst front pages for the Tories for a month or so.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,090
    edited September 2023
    The Daily Mail headline is particularly striking. They know their readership and this is a very damaging story for Sunak, which is being handled poorly by him, Hunt, and Keegan

    That said, TINA remains in charge. The only possible option to take it to the General Election flounced out rather than being forced out by the Privileges Committee, and anyone with any ambition on the Tory benches would rather bide their time to be LOTO in due course.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 31,507
    edited September 2023
    Difficult to believe the dodgy concrete was still being used to construct government buildings as late as 1991.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66708226

    "Concrete tests ordered on 1990s court buildings
    The government has ordered urgent tests on courts built in the 1990s after dangerous concrete was found at a site in north London, the BBC has learnt. Harrow Crown Court closed indefinitely last month because reinforced autoclaved aerated concrete (RAAC) was found during improvement works.
    But following inquiries by the BBC, the government said that Harrow Crown Court had not been included in that survey because it was opened in 1991. The survey only examined court buildings opened in the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s because those were deemed to be the ones at risk."
  • Elon Musk is now threatening to sue the ADL for defamation.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1698834460131651883

    Based on what we’ve heard from advertisers, ADL seems to be responsible for most of our revenue loss.

    Giving them maximum benefit of the doubt, I don’t see any scenario where they’re responsible for less than 10% of the value destruction, so ~$4 billion.

    Document discovery of all communications between The ADL and advertisers will tell the full story.


  • I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    I think Mid-Beds will be dire for the Tories regardless. LD to win it ahead of Labour is my prediction.
  • It looks increasingly like Milei will win in Argentina.

    https://x.com/americaelige/status/1698847559517626659

    Milei (LLA, right|libertarian): 38%
    Massa (UP, centre-left): 27%
    Bullrich (JxC, centre-right): 25%
    Schiaretti (HxNP, centre): 6%
    ...

    Fieldwork: 15-23 August 2023
    Sample size: 2,000
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,796
    edited September 2023
    Somewhat off-topic, this animated fly-through of 17th century London is very relaxing. Skip to 0:50 to start it properly. The city certainly looked much better then than it does now, in this idealised rendering anyway. Probably smells better now though.

    https://londonist.com/2013/10/fly-through-17th-century-london?fbclid=IwAR0E-Gb_hFZko50W50I9jhtSuH5reUjcIlTyw71UzZEJ6Mmj0L8knRq6Pos
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,003

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
  • Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third, Dear Boy?

    They'll be doing well to finish above The Monster Raving Loony Party, which looks increasingly credible compared to the Boys And Girls In Blue.

    Toodle pip. Nice morning. Gonna take the dogs out early.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,513
    Putin’s now having to beg the North Koreans for weapons and ammunition, as he’s running out of his own and the Chinese aren’t interested in supporting his stupid war.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/09/04/kim-jong-un-russia-vladimir-putin-arms-deal/

    Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to receive NATO weapons systems, and is having pilots trained to fly F-16s, as they edge closer to cutting off the supply routes to Crimea.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    edited September 2023
    Good morning all.

    Yesterday I watched with astonishment the unfolding drama. It is an utter shambles, and not exactly the first of such these past few years.

    When the Daily Mail goes with a lead headline like that you know you're in a big trouble.

    It may take a few weeks for the opinion polls to reflect this (look at the timelag following Black Wednesday) but expect some bigger Labour leads to come.

    When Labour mess up, which they assuredly will, I will join the chorus of condemnation if I still have breath. So let's not dress this up with anything other than what it is: utter chaos.
  • The Keegan debacle really doesn't help matters for the Tories and her 'Nicola Murray ' moment just makes them look even more shameless and arrogant in the public eye. The public have in general now turned on them and want a change and that can be unassailable as history tells us. I'd say an election in early summer or early autumn 24 is most likely.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,891
    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    p.s. I am SO glad to see Hilary Benn return to the shadow cabinet, and in a position where a serious politician is needed.
  • It's probably like Gordon Brown's bigoted woman outburst. Very funny, and captures the zeitgeist, but makes very little difference to the political landscape - just sums it up.
  • On topic, not yet, I think Sunak will be at peak vulnerability next May if the Tories are routed like Athens during the Syracuse Expedition.
  • If the Mail and Telegraph start to gun for Sunak then it's a defenestration they're interested in, channelling their readers, not an alternative government.

    The problem here is Sunak's political skills, not his ability to administrate. That’s what he needs coaching on - particularly his behaviours under stress, ranging from desperate to petulant (neither of which build confidence) - as it's going to get worse.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    edited September 2023

    It's probably like Gordon Brown's bigoted woman outburst. Very funny, and captures the zeitgeist, but makes very little difference to the political landscape - just sums it up.

    I don't think it's the outburst that is the issue, even if it's not the best optic for an Education Secretary to swear. It's the chaos and incompetence surrounding the concrete fiasco. The growing evidence that cutbacks have contributed to it, that eyes were taken off the ball, that Keegan went on holiday when the scandal was breaking.

    But above all that significant numbers of children are now having to stay home again.

    It all adds to a sense of a Government in disarray, whilst the country crumbles around them ... literally.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    And why wait until nearly September? That's mind blowing.

    It's incompetence.

    Not just communication.
  • viewcode said:

    Elon Musk is now threatening to sue the ADL for defamation.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1698834460131651883

    Based on what we’ve heard from advertisers, ADL seems to be responsible for most of our revenue loss.

    Giving them maximum benefit of the doubt, I don’t see any scenario where they’re responsible for less than 10% of the value destruction, so ~$4 billion.

    Document discovery of all communications between The ADL and advertisers will tell the full story.


    Free-speech absolutist sues organisation on the contents of their speech.
    I do wonder if this is some form of weird experiment by Musk, to see how far he can go before the knowing and unknowing fools who support everything he does desert him.

    If so, it's a pointless experiment, as Trump has been running the same one for nearly a decade...
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,077
    edited September 2023
    What probably doesn't help Sunak's cause are the Boris cult club. I'm staying this week in Surrey with one of them: she's a lifelong tory voter who loves Boris.

    By contrast she really dislikes Sunak, for all the reasons cited below by myself and others. But, I suspect, above all because she believes it was Sunak who shafted her beloved Boris.

    I don't know what % of the electorate they represent but they helped land the buffoon a 2019 majority and I can't see any sign at all of them voting Conservative again next time. My friend is resigned to a Labour victory. She's not even sure she will vote Conservative, for the first time in her life.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,297

    It looks increasingly like Milei will win in Argentina.

    https://x.com/americaelige/status/1698847559517626659

    Milei (LLA, right|libertarian): 38%
    Massa (UP, centre-left): 27%
    Bullrich (JxC, centre-right): 25%
    Schiaretti (HxNP, centre): 6%
    ...

    Fieldwork: 15-23 August 2023
    Sample size: 2,000

    If it's Milei v Massa in the second round, then it is near certain.

    On the other hand, if it's Milei v Bullrich, then it could be very exciting.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,318
    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk is now threatening to sue the ADL for defamation.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1698834460131651883

    Based on what we’ve heard from advertisers, ADL seems to be responsible for most of our revenue loss.

    Giving them maximum benefit of the doubt, I don’t see any scenario where they’re responsible for less than 10% of the value destruction, so ~$4 billion.

    Document discovery of all communications between The ADL and advertisers will tell the full story.


    Would this be the Anti-Defamation League whose mission is to identify and criticize antisemitism?

    They have, in their day, pissed off a lot of people. But it would be incredibly hard to win a defamation case against them, because you not only have to prove that anything they wrote was (a) untrue, (b) defamatory and (c) - and this is also the real kicker - that it was written with a wanton disregard for the truth.

    That last one is an incredibly high bar. And the ADL has some of the best lawyers in America on staff.

    Here's the thing, though.

    It's easy to be a free speech absolutist about with which you agree. The measure of your commitment, though, is when there is speech that is inconvenient to you.
    If Musk sues (and he says he’ll do all sorts of things but then doesn’t), then presumably discovery will also reveal internal Twitter discussions over how to handle anti-Semitic content. These might be interesting!
  • I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,318

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    If your local school/court/hospital is affected, repairs are going to take a while and be a reminder of what’s happened.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,297
    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    I'll offer you 20-1 if you like.
  • The Tories are stuffed. The Times has headlines like Starmer prepares to govern as New Labour. Its shades if 1997. A budget giveaway and then a GE is the best the Tories can hope for to keep the defeat to reasonable levels. The important outcome of the GE will be the hoped for annihilation of the SNP.
  • Heathener said:

    It's probably like Gordon Brown's bigoted woman outburst. Very funny, and captures the zeitgeist, but makes very little difference to the political landscape - just sums it up.

    I don't think it's the outburst that is the issue, even if it's not the best optic for an Education Secretary to swear. It's the chaos and incompetence surrounding the concrete fiasco. The growing evidence that cutbacks have contributed to it, that eyes were taken off the ball, that Keegan went on holiday when the scandal was breaking.

    But above all that significant numbers of children are now having to stay home again.

    It all adds to a sense of a Government in disarray, whilst the country crumbles around them ... literally.
    Yawn.
  • Heathener said:

    What probably doesn't help Sunak's cause are the Boris cult club. I'm staying this week in Surrey with one of them: she's a lifelong tory voter who loves Boris.

    By contrast she really dislikes Sunak, for all the reasons cited below by myself and others. But, I suspect, above all because she believes it was Sunak who shafted her beloved Boris.

    I don't know what % of the electorate they represent but they helped land the buffoon a 2019 majority and I can't see any sign at all of them voting Conservative again next time. My friend is resigned to a Labour victory. She's not even sure she will vote Conservative, for the first time in her life.

    She's probably desperate to change the subject and talk about anything but politics with you and, if she can't avoid it, tell you what she thinks you want to hear.
  • rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk is now threatening to sue the ADL for defamation.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1698834460131651883

    Based on what we’ve heard from advertisers, ADL seems to be responsible for most of our revenue loss.

    Giving them maximum benefit of the doubt, I don’t see any scenario where they’re responsible for less than 10% of the value destruction, so ~$4 billion.

    Document discovery of all communications between The ADL and advertisers will tell the full story.


    Would this be the Anti-Defamation League whose mission is to identify and criticize antisemitism?

    They have, in their day, pissed off a lot of people. But it would be incredibly hard to win a defamation case against them, because you not only have to prove that anything they wrote was (a) untrue, (b) defamatory and (c) - and this is also the real kicker - that it was written with a wanton disregard for the truth.

    That last one is an incredibly high bar. And the ADL has some of the best lawyers in America on staff.

    Here's the thing, though.

    It's easy to be a free speech absolutist about with which you agree. The measure of your commitment, though, is when there is speech that is inconvenient to you.
    I have to keep reminding myself of such principles most evenings at home.
  • Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,648

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    When they should be coming for me, and other better off pensioners.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,891

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    By its very nature it isn't a problem that can be fixed quickly, see the ongoing problems with cladding as an example.

    This one will smoulder and flare for years.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,580

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,297

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk is now threatening to sue the ADL for defamation.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1698834460131651883

    Based on what we’ve heard from advertisers, ADL seems to be responsible for most of our revenue loss.

    Giving them maximum benefit of the doubt, I don’t see any scenario where they’re responsible for less than 10% of the value destruction, so ~$4 billion.

    Document discovery of all communications between The ADL and advertisers will tell the full story.


    Would this be the Anti-Defamation League whose mission is to identify and criticize antisemitism?

    They have, in their day, pissed off a lot of people. But it would be incredibly hard to win a defamation case against them, because you not only have to prove that anything they wrote was (a) untrue, (b) defamatory and (c) - and this is also the real kicker - that it was written with a wanton disregard for the truth.

    That last one is an incredibly high bar. And the ADL has some of the best lawyers in America on staff.

    Here's the thing, though.

    It's easy to be a free speech absolutist about with which you agree. The measure of your commitment, though, is when there is speech that is inconvenient to you.
    I have to keep reminding myself of such principles most evenings at home.
    What's slightly bonkers about all this is just how self sabotaging Musk has been with Twitter.

    If he'd cut costs sharply at the start and introduced some subscription revenues, but left things broadly alone, then advertising revenue would have held up. Total revenues, with Twitter Blue and content revenue sharing, might well have ended up rising, even while costs were being cut.

    Twitter would have become profitable, and he would have been in a much stronger position to do what he wanted.
  • Rory Stewart was confident the Tories would pick Braverman as their next leader and would go even further to the right. I wonder if at that point he will make his return to politics - and by God would that be good for us all.
  • My grandson’s school makes it into the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Another school year in which his education suffers:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-66710706

    The mind-blowing thing is that Sunak was presented with all the evidence of the problems and how serious they were, and decided to cut the repairs budget in half. I just don’t see how you come back from a decision like that. It’s unforgivable.

  • Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
  • IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    When they should be coming for me, and other better off pensioners.
    I very much doubt he'll do anything of the kind, even though he should.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,891

    I’m not sure exactly what the problem is with Heathener’s posts according to some. Yes they’re very Labour-biased/anti-Tory but then lots of posts are pro-Tory and they don’t have the same predictable replies.

    This site is as its best when we have a variety of opinions, I really think the attacking of Heathener really has gone on too long when the posts are far more interesting to read than “why is everything so woke” or “aliens” or “COVID was started in a lab this far-right blog post says so”.

    Heathener has been saying for some time that things are worse for the Tories than the consensus accepts.

    I think that may well be the case. Not least because even though Starmer lacks charisma, he has a ruthlessness and organisational ability that gets stronger all the time.

    I don't think that bodes well for government, as all governments need to listen, but it is going to win him a significant majority.
  • Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    I pay 62% marginal rate on my income at the moment.

    How much would you like me to pay? 70%? 80%? 100%?

    Sentiments like this are stagnating the country and will lead to a brain drain from Britain, which will cost the exchequer not add to it.
  • As our schools crumble, the raw turds continue to pour into our rivers and seas:

    Water firms illegally spilled sewage on dry days - data suggests https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-66670132
  • rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk is now threatening to sue the ADL for defamation.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1698834460131651883

    Based on what we’ve heard from advertisers, ADL seems to be responsible for most of our revenue loss.

    Giving them maximum benefit of the doubt, I don’t see any scenario where they’re responsible for less than 10% of the value destruction, so ~$4 billion.

    Document discovery of all communications between The ADL and advertisers will tell the full story.


    Would this be the Anti-Defamation League whose mission is to identify and criticize antisemitism?

    They have, in their day, pissed off a lot of people. But it would be incredibly hard to win a defamation case against them, because you not only have to prove that anything they wrote was (a) untrue, (b) defamatory and (c) - and this is also the real kicker - that it was written with a wanton disregard for the truth.

    That last one is an incredibly high bar. And the ADL has some of the best lawyers in America on staff.

    Here's the thing, though.

    It's easy to be a free speech absolutist about with which you agree. The measure of your commitment, though, is when there is speech that is inconvenient to you.
    I have to keep reminding myself of such principles most evenings at home.
    What's slightly bonkers about all this is just how self sabotaging Musk has been with Twitter.

    If he'd cut costs sharply at the start and introduced some subscription revenues, but left things broadly alone, then advertising revenue would have held up. Total revenues, with Twitter Blue and content revenue sharing, might well have ended up rising, even while costs were being cut.

    Twitter would have become profitable, and he would have been in a much stronger position to do what he wanted.
    That assumes Musk bought Twitter for rational business reasons.

    I'm fairly convinced it was the most expensive troll in history.
  • My grandson’s school makes it into the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Another school year in which his education suffers:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-66710706

    The mind-blowing thing is that Sunak was presented with all the evidence of the problems and how serious they were, and decided to cut the repairs budget in half. I just don’t see how you come back from a decision like that. It’s unforgivable.

    Because the alternative is increasing tax on his supporters.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    edited September 2023

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    I pay 62% marginal rate on my income at the moment.

    How much would you like me to pay? 70%? 80%? 100%?

    Sentiments like this are stagnating the country and will lead to a brain drain from Britain, which will cost the exchequer not add to it.
    I could justify a high marginal tax rate on myself (like you it is very high), if we were getting something for it but under Tory Britain it’s an all time high and yet the public services are on their face, schools are falling apart, nothing runs on time and younger people get fleeced to pay for the elderly and their gold-plated triple locked pension.
  • I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,891
    rcs1000 said:

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    I'll offer you 20-1 if you like.
    My £5 says Tories in third.
  • I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Thank you, Gardenwalker, for that outburst of good sense.

    I caught the Keegan rant and didn't think it was so bad. Sure, as a Politician she should know there are cameras and recording equipment everywhere and she would never be safely off-air, but given it was an aside after the interview ended I think a few honest opinions and a bit of fruity language were perfectly reasonable.

    What is interesting is that the Daily Hate-Mail should turn on her. (Does nobody there ever utter an expletive?) They have an agenda. This does not look good for her, and even worse for Sunak. The Mail speaks for What's Left Of The Tory Party and if he's lost them, he's on his way out, either before or by virtue of a General Election.

    Will that help the Tories? Will it fuck. (Apologies to the snowflakes at the Mail but sometimes I can't help my language.) There is no Saviour, no Prince Over The Water, no option other than to keep buggering on with what might pass in some quarters for half-decent, competent Government, and hope the coming drubbing doesn't annihilate them completely.

    Lose Mid-Beds? Yes, and High-Beds, Low-Beds, Flower Beds and any other Beds they try to lie in. Meanwhile, Starmer quietly prepares for the takeover.

    Can't happen too soon, for everyone's sake.
    Put it this way.

    Paul Dacre's staff briefings are rumoured to be nicknamed the vagina monologues.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/shortcuts/2012/mar/27/daily-mail-very-very-brief-guide
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,318

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    I pay 62% marginal rate on my income at the moment.

    How much would you like me to pay? 70%? 80%? 100%?

    Sentiments like this are stagnating the country and will lead to a brain drain from Britain, which will cost the exchequer not add to it.
    A high marginal tax rate is a bad thing, but it’s not the number that matters in terms of how the overall tax burden falls on different people. What matters for that is the overall tax rate you pay. This is less than 62%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,891
    edited September 2023

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
    Not forgotten by people stuck in flats that they cannot sell, or remortgage.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,648
    Foxy said:

    I’m not sure exactly what the problem is with Heathener’s posts according to some. Yes they’re very Labour-biased/anti-Tory but then lots of posts are pro-Tory and they don’t have the same predictable replies.

    This site is as its best when we have a variety of opinions, I really think the attacking of Heathener really has gone on too long when the posts are far more interesting to read than “why is everything so woke” or “aliens” or “COVID was started in a lab this far-right blog post says so”.

    Heathener has been saying for some time that things are worse for the Tories than the consensus accepts.

    I think that may well be the case. Not least because even though Starmer lacks charisma, he has a ruthlessness and organisational ability that gets stronger all the time.

    I don't think that bodes well for government, as all governments need to listen, but it is going to win him a significant majority.
    Stepping back from the immediate scandal, and the bigger news is the contrast between Starmer promoting a bunch of his moderates - some of them pretty unpopular with the rank and file - into an election-winning team while Sunak is still lumbered with most of the ideological dross and numpties that he inherited from the clown, and is apparently powerless to dump them.

    How many times has Sunak’s promised reshuffle been postponed now?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,021
    AIUI the English Education Ministry changed government advice on RAAC a few days ago. Previously the advice was to inspect your buildings for RAAC, to keep a close eye on it, but to leave it in place unless it deteriorates.

    Now it seems RAAC panels can disintegrate suddenly and without warning. Does that mean rooms containing RAAC should not be used? Keegan referred vaguely yesterday to mitigations. What are these mitigations?

    Does anyone know more about this?
  • Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    I pay 62% marginal rate on my income at the moment.

    How much would you like me to pay? 70%? 80%? 100%?

    Sentiments like this are stagnating the country and will lead to a brain drain from Britain, which will cost the exchequer not add to it.
    I could justify a high marginal tax rate on myself (like you it is very high), if we were getting something for it but under Tory Britain it’s an all time high and yet the public services are on their face, schools are falling apart, nothing runs on time and younger people get fleeced to pay for the elderly and their gold-plated triple locked pension.
    And, expect it to go even higher under Labour with broadly the same experience.

    We spend too much and don't have a broad enough tax base with enough growth.

    That's the root of our problems.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,318

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
    Here’s a Google Trends analysis for “Grenfell”: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=GB&q=Grenfell&hl=en-US That suggests maybe a 2-year saliency. It’s less than 2 years to the next general election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,694
    FF43 said:

    AIUI the English Education Ministry changed government advice on RAAC a few days ago. Previously the advice was to inspect your buildings for RAAC, to keep a close eye on it, but to leave it in place unless it deteriorates.

    Now it seems RAAC panels can disintegrate suddenly and without warning. Does that mean rooms containing RAAC should not be used? Keegan referred vaguely yesterday to mitigations. What are these mitigations?

    Does anyone know more about this?

    In order:

    1) Yes, but we don't know whether half of them have it because the DfE have been dragging their feet over this for five years and schools (and for the matter of that, hospitals, courts and other public buildings) have very little money to spare to do it themselves;

    2) Essentially, not using the rooms is the mitigation. This may mean relocating to other classrooms or in extreme cases other sites. Whether money will be forthcoming is currently uncertain as the government keeps changing what it's saying.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,318

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    I pay 62% marginal rate on my income at the moment.

    How much would you like me to pay? 70%? 80%? 100%?

    Sentiments like this are stagnating the country and will lead to a brain drain from Britain, which will cost the exchequer not add to it.
    I could justify a high marginal tax rate on myself (like you it is very high), if we were getting something for it but under Tory Britain it’s an all time high and yet the public services are on their face, schools are falling apart, nothing runs on time and younger people get fleeced to pay for the elderly and their gold-plated triple locked pension.
    And, expect it to go even higher under Labour with broadly the same experience.

    We spend too much and don't have a broad enough tax base with enough growth.

    That's the root of our problems.
    Do you feel the Conservatives have made progress on either on those?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,891
    edited September 2023
    FF43 said:

    AIUI the English Education Ministry changed government advice on RAAC a few days ago. Previously the advice was to inspect your buildings for RAAC, to keep a close eye on it, but to leave it in place unless it deteriorates.

    Now it seems RAAC panels can disintegrate suddenly and without warning. Does that mean rooms containing RAAC should not be used? Keegan referred vaguely yesterday to mitigations. What are these mitigations?

    Does anyone know more about this?

    Mitigations presumably like the 2400 props holding up the roof at Kings Lynn Hospital.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-norfolk-63137642

    It must incentivise the operating team to get a move on, when the operating theatre roof is being held up by props...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,580

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
    Grenfell rolled on but fortunately it occurred immediately after a GE. One could argue Government's involvement was indirect, whereas yesterday's interjection by Slater pinned the blame directly on Sunak. The crumbling schools issue affects almost everyone with children or grand children. Combustible cladding just affected those living in higher rise properties who probably don't vote Conservative as a rule.

    Of course, as MoonRabbit speculated yesterday this issue could be a big win for the Tories if it spurs them to eject loser Sunak and replace with a winner.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,694
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    AIUI the English Education Ministry changed government advice on RAAC a few days ago. Previously the advice was to inspect your buildings for RAAC, to keep a close eye on it, but to leave it in place unless it deteriorates.

    Now it seems RAAC panels can disintegrate suddenly and without warning. Does that mean rooms containing RAAC should not be used? Keegan referred vaguely yesterday to mitigations. What are these mitigations?

    Does anyone know more about this?

    Mitigations presumably like the 2400 props holding up the roof at Kings Lynn Hospital.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-norfolk-63137642

    It must incentivise the operating team to get a move on, when the operating theatre roof is being held up by props...
    Well, lots of theatres use props, but 2400 is pushing it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,891
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    I’m not sure exactly what the problem is with Heathener’s posts according to some. Yes they’re very Labour-biased/anti-Tory but then lots of posts are pro-Tory and they don’t have the same predictable replies.

    This site is as its best when we have a variety of opinions, I really think the attacking of Heathener really has gone on too long when the posts are far more interesting to read than “why is everything so woke” or “aliens” or “COVID was started in a lab this far-right blog post says so”.

    Heathener has been saying for some time that things are worse for the Tories than the consensus accepts.

    I think that may well be the case. Not least because even though Starmer lacks charisma, he has a ruthlessness and organisational ability that gets stronger all the time.

    I don't think that bodes well for government, as all governments need to listen, but it is going to win him a significant majority.
    Stepping back from the immediate scandal, and the bigger news is the contrast between Starmer promoting a bunch of his moderates - some of them pretty unpopular with the rank and file - into an election-winning team while Sunak is still lumbered with most of the ideological dross and numpties that he inherited from the clown, and is apparently powerless to dump them.

    How many times has Sunak’s promised reshuffle been postponed now?
    I am a Liz Kendall fan, and Hilary Benn is a wise head to have for Northern Ireland. I am deeply suspicious of Wes Streeting and some of the others, but Labour now really does look like a government in waiting.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,021
    edited September 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk is now threatening to sue the ADL for defamation.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1698834460131651883

    Based on what we’ve heard from advertisers, ADL seems to be responsible for most of our revenue loss.

    Giving them maximum benefit of the doubt, I don’t see any scenario where they’re responsible for less than 10% of the value destruction, so ~$4 billion.

    Document discovery of all communications between The ADL and advertisers will tell the full story.


    Would this be the Anti-Defamation League whose mission is to identify and criticize antisemitism?

    They have, in their day, pissed off a lot of people. But it would be incredibly hard to win a defamation case against them, because you not only have to prove that anything they wrote was (a) untrue, (b) defamatory and (c) - and this is also the real kicker - that it was written with a wanton disregard for the truth.

    That last one is an incredibly high bar. And the ADL has some of the best lawyers in America on staff.

    Here's the thing, though.

    It's easy to be a free speech absolutist about with which you agree. The measure of your commitment, though, is when there is speech that is inconvenient to you.
    Musk's issue with the ADL is that they have called him out for allowing anti-Semites to flourish on his platform and personally for retweeting posts from anti-Semites. He blames ADL for reducing Twitter advertising by 60% through organising a boycott of the platform. He doesn't think the reason why advertisers stay clear is because of reputational risk to their brands by being associated with a toxic social media channel.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,003
    edited September 2023

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Except for the long line of f%ck ups that are still out there. I would predict that it is going to be a very rough winter for the Tories. Any bets on which is the next thing to blow up in their faces...?

    I´m thinking something like more nasties lurking in the NHS during flu season, or another Brexit trade balls up...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,580
    FF43 said:

    AIUI the English Education Ministry changed government advice on RAAC a few days ago. Previously the advice was to inspect your buildings for RAAC, to keep a close eye on it, but to leave it in place unless it deteriorates.

    Now it seems RAAC panels can disintegrate suddenly and without warning. Does that mean rooms containing RAAC should not be used? Keegan referred vaguely yesterday to mitigations. What are these mitigations?

    Does anyone know more about this?

    Buying shares in acrow prop manufacturers looks like a solid investment.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 70,694
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Elon Musk is now threatening to sue the ADL for defamation.

    https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1698834460131651883

    Based on what we’ve heard from advertisers, ADL seems to be responsible for most of our revenue loss.

    Giving them maximum benefit of the doubt, I don’t see any scenario where they’re responsible for less than 10% of the value destruction, so ~$4 billion.

    Document discovery of all communications between The ADL and advertisers will tell the full story.


    Would this be the Anti-Defamation League whose mission is to identify and criticize antisemitism?

    They have, in their day, pissed off a lot of people. But it would be incredibly hard to win a defamation case against them, because you not only have to prove that anything they wrote was (a) untrue, (b) defamatory and (c) - and this is also the real kicker - that it was written with a wanton disregard for the truth.

    That last one is an incredibly high bar. And the ADL has some of the best lawyers in America on staff.

    Here's the thing, though.

    It's easy to be a free speech absolutist about with which you agree. The measure of your commitment, though, is when there is speech that is inconvenient to you.
    Musk's issue with the ADL is that they have called him out for allowing anti-Semites to flourish on his platform and personally for retweeting posts from anti-Semites. He blames ADL for reducing Twitter advertising by 60% through organising a boycott of the platform. He doesn't think
    If you'd stopped there, you'd have summarised the problem in pithy fashion.

    Musk clearly isn't completely stupid (unlike say Cummings) but he is incredibly and increasingly arrogant. He seems to have come to genuinely believe everything he has achieved is due to his own extraordinary brilliance and therefore anything that goes wrong is Not His Fault. It must be the deepstate. Or the workers. Or his lawyers. Or in this case, the Jews.

    His record doesn't justify such boundless self belief, and the obvious and entirely avoidable mistakes he is making with Twitter should ram home to him that he's mortal like the rest of us. I doubt if they will though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 121,308

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
    Grenfell rolled on but fortunately it occurred immediately after a GE. One could argue Government's involvement was indirect, whereas yesterday's interjection by Slater pinned the blame directly on Sunak. The crumbling schools issue affects almost everyone with children or grand children. Combustible cladding just affected those living in higher rise properties who probably don't vote Conservative as a rule.

    Of course, as MoonRabbit speculated yesterday this issue could be a big win for the Tories if it spurs them to eject loser Sunak and replace with a winner.

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
    Grenfell rolled on but fortunately it occurred immediately after a GE. One could argue Government's involvement was indirect, whereas yesterday's interjection by Slater pinned the blame directly on Sunak. The crumbling schools issue affects almost everyone with children or grand children. Combustible cladding just affected those living in higher rise properties who probably don't vote Conservative as a rule.

    Of course, as MoonRabbit speculated yesterday this issue could be a big win for the Tories if it spurs them to eject loser Sunak and replace with a winner.
    If Sunak went now the odds are the Tory membership would elect PM Badenoch or Braverman.

    Which is why Tory MPs won't risk it and will keep Sunak in place. He has also had success in cutting inflation etc
  • Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    I pay 62% marginal rate on my income at the moment.

    How much would you like me to pay? 70%? 80%? 100%?

    Sentiments like this are stagnating the country and will lead to a brain drain from Britain, which will cost the exchequer not add to it.
    I could justify a high marginal tax rate on myself (like you it is very high), if we were getting something for it but under Tory Britain it’s an all time high and yet the public services are on their face, schools are falling apart, nothing runs on time and younger people get fleeced to pay for the elderly and their gold-plated triple locked pension.
    And, expect it to go even higher under Labour with broadly the same experience.

    We spend too much and don't have a broad enough tax base with enough growth.

    That's the root of our problems.
    Do you feel the Conservatives have made progress on either on those?
    Over the last 13 years? Yes. They've taken a large number of people out of income tax altogether, raised the 40p band to over £50k and reduced the additional rate from 50p to 45p. They've smoothed the UC taper rate to incentivise moving into work at the lower end. And they've also argued (under Boris) the 40p band ceiling should be increased still further.

    Right now, it's terrible - they've frozen the bands, and jacked up the burden through fiscal drag - but at least they're talking about tax cuts and reducing the burden as an aspiration.

    By contrast, I don't hear Labour talking at all about this. Not only would their tax on private schools cost me thousands we don't have, and throw my kids out of the school they love, but I expect Labour would also increase the additional rate, and extenuate fiscal drag as well.

    Now, you might not agree with me on all of that but at the very least you can hopefully appreciate why I might not be enamoured by it.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 984
    edited September 2023
    The awful press, especially the Mail, reinforces the expectation that the Conservatives will not be in government after the next election. Party membership is declining and there is no incentive for anyone to to donate significant sums to the party. If Sunak delays until autumn 2024 there will be no money left in the Conservative Party coffers to fight an election, he will have to go to the country sooner rather than later.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,648

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    I pay 62% marginal rate on my income at the moment.

    How much would you like me to pay? 70%? 80%? 100%?

    Sentiments like this are stagnating the country and will lead to a brain drain from Britain, which will cost the exchequer not add to it.
    I could justify a high marginal tax rate on myself (like you it is very high), if we were getting something for it but under Tory Britain it’s an all time high and yet the public services are on their face, schools are falling apart, nothing runs on time and younger people get fleeced to pay for the elderly and their gold-plated triple locked pension.
    And, expect it to go even higher under Labour with broadly the same experience.

    We spend too much and don't have a broad enough tax base with enough growth.

    That's the root of our problems.
    Do you feel the Conservatives have made progress on either on those?
    Over the last 13 years? Yes. They've taken a large number of people out of income tax altogether, raised the 40p band to over £50k and reduced the additional rate from 50p to 45p. They've smoothed the UC taper rate to incentivise moving into work at the lower end. And they've also argued (under Boris) the 40p band ceiling should be increased still further.

    Right now, it's terrible - they've frozen the bands, and jacked up the burden through fiscal drag - but at least they're talking about tax cuts and reducing the burden as an aspiration.

    By contrast, I don't hear Labour talking at all about this. Not only would their tax on private schools cost me thousands we don't have, and throw my kids out of the school they love, but I expect Labour would also increase the additional rate, and extenuate fiscal drag as well.

    Now, you might not agree with me on all of that but at the very least you can hopefully appreciate why I might not be enamoured by it.
    ‘Twas the LibDems that took people out of tax; having opposed it, the Tories sought credit for it while they couldn’t undo it, and are now busily undoing it, big time. At the end of the current freeze we’ll probably be back where we started in terms of the basic tax allowance.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,021

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Thank you, Gardenwalker, for that outburst of good sense.

    I caught the Keegan rant and didn't think it was so bad. Sure, as a Politician she should know there are cameras and recording equipment everywhere and she would never be safely off-air, but given it was an aside after the interview ended I think a few honest opinions and a bit of fruity language were perfectly reasonable.

    What is interesting is that the Daily Hate-Mail should turn on her. (Does nobody there ever utter an expletive?) They have an agenda. This does not look good for her, and even worse for Sunak. The Mail speaks for What's Left Of The Tory Party and if he's lost them, he's on his way out, either before or by virtue of a General Election.

    Will that help the Tories? Will it fuck. (Apologies to the snowflakes at the Mail but sometimes I can't help my language.) There is no Saviour, no Prince Over The Water, no option other than to keep buggering on with what might pass in some quarters for half-decent, competent Government, and hope the coming drubbing doesn't annihilate them completely.

    Lose Mid-Beds? Yes, and High-Beds, Low-Beds, Flower Beds and any other Beds they try to lie in. Meanwhile, Starmer quietly prepares for the takeover.

    Can't happen too soon, for everyone's sake.
    By implication Keegan was blaming her boss in that outburst, which is never a good career move. Also there doesn't seem to be any clarity on what schools and other institutions are meant to do. As it was her department that issued the new advice her colleagues may well blame her for causing the fiasco, even if the public aren't following the story very closely.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,648
    edited September 2023
    Cicero said:

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Except for the long line of f%ck ups that are still out there. I would predict that it is going to be a very rough winter for the Tories. Any bets on which is the next thing to blow up in their faces...?

    I´m thinking something like more nasties lurking in the NHS during flu season, or another Brexit trade balls up...
    Or this new mutliple-mutated covid variant that has already reached Scotland will kill us all, just like Leon/Eadric said.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 676
    edited September 2023
    Cicero said:

    The crumbling schools, the turds pouring into our water, a collapsing health service, the social care crisis, appalling public transport, hugely expensive childcare, the lack of housing etc, etc … leads to only one conclusion: no serious government can escape the need for huge infrastructure investment. There’s no getting round it, so ways will have to be found unless we do just want to accept a decline into discrepitude and all the disasters that will bring.

    The septic isle of shit in every river and all around the coast has really, really cut through on the doorsteps.

    People are furious that the Tories are still giving out exemptions to the water companies, and the fact that several of these companies or their private equity backers are Conservative donors only stokes the wrath.
    I live on the South Coast and the Green candidate defeated the Conservative in the local elections in what was a safe Conservative seat. The Green candidate canvassed me beforehand and asked what I was concerned about. When I said sewage in the sea, she said that was the issue mentioned most frequently on the doorstep.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 27,580
    HYUFD said:

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
    Grenfell rolled on but fortunately it occurred immediately after a GE. One could argue Government's involvement was indirect, whereas yesterday's interjection by Slater pinned the blame directly on Sunak. The crumbling schools issue affects almost everyone with children or grand children. Combustible cladding just affected those living in higher rise properties who probably don't vote Conservative as a rule.

    Of course, as MoonRabbit speculated yesterday this issue could be a big win for the Tories if it spurs them to eject loser Sunak and replace with a winner.

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
    Grenfell rolled on but fortunately it occurred immediately after a GE. One could argue Government's involvement was indirect, whereas yesterday's interjection by Slater pinned the blame directly on Sunak. The crumbling schools issue affects almost everyone with children or grand children. Combustible cladding just affected those living in higher rise properties who probably don't vote Conservative as a rule.

    Of course, as MoonRabbit speculated yesterday this issue could be a big win for the Tories if it spurs them to eject loser Sunak and replace with a winner.
    If Sunak went now the odds are the Tory membership would elect PM Badenoch or Braverman.

    Which is why Tory MPs won't risk it and will keep Sunak in place. He has also had success in cutting inflation etc
    Cutting inflation*? If that is a win, you are truly stuffed.* Remember kids inflation is cumulative, and falling inflation has a direct correlation with an increase in your mortgage rate.

    You need someone like Penny Dreadful or Tommy Tugs. If you go Braverman, you better hope she has off-the wall, industrial-scale hanging and flogging populism up her sleeve**.

    ** I suspect she has.
  • Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    I pay 62% marginal rate on my income at the moment.

    How much would you like me to pay? 70%? 80%? 100%?

    Sentiments like this are stagnating the country and will lead to a brain drain from Britain, which will cost the exchequer not add to it.
    I could justify a high marginal tax rate on myself (like you it is very high), if we were getting something for it but under Tory Britain it’s an all time high and yet the public services are on their face, schools are falling apart, nothing runs on time and younger people get fleeced to pay for the elderly and their gold-plated triple locked pension.
    And, expect it to go even higher under Labour with broadly the same experience.

    We spend too much and don't have a broad enough tax base with enough growth.

    That's the root of our problems.
    Do you feel the Conservatives have made progress on either on those?
    Over the last 13 years? Yes. They've taken a large number of people out of income tax altogether, raised the 40p band to over £50k and reduced the additional rate from 50p to 45p. They've smoothed the UC taper rate to incentivise moving into work at the lower end. And they've also argued (under Boris) the 40p band ceiling should be increased still further.

    Right now, it's terrible - they've frozen the bands, and jacked up the burden through fiscal drag - but at least they're talking about tax cuts and reducing the burden as an aspiration.

    By contrast, I don't hear Labour talking at all about this. Not only would their tax on private schools cost me thousands we don't have, and throw my kids out of the school they love, but I expect Labour would also increase the additional rate, and extenuate fiscal drag as well.

    Now, you might not agree with me on all of that but at the very least you can hopefully appreciate why I might not be enamoured by it.
    I think similarly to you, except that I know that Sunak is doing what you fear about Labour (minus school fees, my kids go to a state school and that's not going to change, so while I agree with you philosophically I don't especially care about that, its not a priority).

    Labour at least might address the issues as to why our taxes are rising under Sunak.

    The biggest issue in the state today is not spending on public sector employees, its that increasingly the burden of paying taxes is put on fewer and fewer working people, while those who aren't working for their income get away without paying their taxes.

    If Labour can resolve the latter, then the Tories could when in office next time cut taxes, once everyone is paying their fair share. Otherwise, taxes are only going to ratchet upwards as if fewer people pay them, they each need to pay more, and Sunak's Tories are refusing to admit the problem which is why they're raising taxes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,648
    HYUFD said:

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
    Grenfell rolled on but fortunately it occurred immediately after a GE. One could argue Government's involvement was indirect, whereas yesterday's interjection by Slater pinned the blame directly on Sunak. The crumbling schools issue affects almost everyone with children or grand children. Combustible cladding just affected those living in higher rise properties who probably don't vote Conservative as a rule.

    Of course, as MoonRabbit speculated yesterday this issue could be a big win for the Tories if it spurs them to eject loser Sunak and replace with a winner.

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
    Grenfell rolled on but fortunately it occurred immediately after a GE. One could argue Government's involvement was indirect, whereas yesterday's interjection by Slater pinned the blame directly on Sunak. The crumbling schools issue affects almost everyone with children or grand children. Combustible cladding just affected those living in higher rise properties who probably don't vote Conservative as a rule.

    Of course, as MoonRabbit speculated yesterday this issue could be a big win for the Tories if it spurs them to eject loser Sunak and replace with a winner.
    If Sunak went now the odds are the Tory membership would elect PM Badenoch or Braverman.

    Which is why Tory MPs won't risk it and will keep Sunak in place. He has also had success in cutting inflation etc
    TLDR: Tory members learned precisely nothing from voting for Truss.
  • HYUFD said:

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
    Grenfell rolled on but fortunately it occurred immediately after a GE. One could argue Government's involvement was indirect, whereas yesterday's interjection by Slater pinned the blame directly on Sunak. The crumbling schools issue affects almost everyone with children or grand children. Combustible cladding just affected those living in higher rise properties who probably don't vote Conservative as a rule.

    Of course, as MoonRabbit speculated yesterday this issue could be a big win for the Tories if it spurs them to eject loser Sunak and replace with a winner.

    I cant see this concrete thing lasting that long, yes some bad headlines for Conservatives and a couple of tricky byelections but Apr/May 24 is a long way from all this. I reckon a few tricky headlines and it'll be forgotten

    Crumbling schools is analogous for broken Britain. Sunak is looking like a loser.

    Jettison Rishi at the end of October (which is a shame- but man, he was poor yesterday) replace with a shiny new leader and pretend the new boss isn't the old boss and hope the voters don't realise the sleight of hand.

    Although who would want to take on the Con leader role to be PM for likely, 5 minutes?

    Yesterday was a terrible day for Rishi and the Conservatives. Can they come back for a GE win? Yes, but not with Rishi.
    Grenfell (and cladding) is perhaps a useful indicator as to how these bad news stories (and Grenfell was/is really bad) end up being forgotten.
    Grenfell rolled on but fortunately it occurred immediately after a GE. One could argue Government's involvement was indirect, whereas yesterday's interjection by Slater pinned the blame directly on Sunak. The crumbling schools issue affects almost everyone with children or grand children. Combustible cladding just affected those living in higher rise properties who probably don't vote Conservative as a rule.

    Of course, as MoonRabbit speculated yesterday this issue could be a big win for the Tories if it spurs them to eject loser Sunak and replace with a winner.
    If Sunak went now the odds are the Tory membership would elect PM Badenoch or Braverman.

    Which is why Tory MPs won't risk it and will keep Sunak in place. He has also had success in cutting inflation etc
    Cutting inflation*? If that is a win, you are truly stuffed.* Remember kids inflation is cumulative, and falling inflation has a direct correlation with an increase in your mortgage rate.

    You need someone like Penny Dreadful or Tommy Tugs. If you go Braverman, you better hope she has off-the wall, industrial-scale hanging and flogging populism up her sleeve**.

    ** I suspect she has.
    Inflation, and cutting inflation, would have been fine had fiscal drag not been an issue.

    If over a few years prices go up by 20%, but pay goes up by 22%, and tax thresholds scale with inflation, then you are better off at the end of the period.

    The problem, the reason for the pain, is one entirely and solely of Sunak's making.

    If over a few years prices go up by 20%, but pay goes up by 22%, and tax thresholds were frozen, then you are much worse off at the end of the period.

    The problem isn't inflation, the problem is fiscal drag. Sunak caused fiscal drag. It is entirely and solely his choice.
  • Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    The biggest block to voting Labour is the historical tendency of a number in the party to believe that spending money on something is, of itself, good.

    The problem is that organisations, especially large ones, have an impressive ability to absorb money with no result evident. Apart from the organisation being a bit larger.

    Tony Blair realised this and made fiscal discipline a priority.

    However, what we need is something stronger than that. Both parties appear to have given up on the idea of increasing productivity by the methods that actually work - as proved in the real world many times, in many organisations.
    I agree with much of that. But it's dangerously near the 'efficiency' talk we hear about all the time. And a big problem with that is that one person's 'efficiency' is another person's 'inefficiency'. The current concrete kafuffle is a good example: in terms of cost (not politics), would it have been cheaper in the long run to renew all these RAAC buildings five years ago, or keep a watching brief on them? Quite possibly the latter.

    Also, if you don't use a particular service, it's easy to think that that service is wasteful.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,891
    Cicero said:

    The crumbling schools, the turds pouring into our water, a collapsing health service, the social care crisis, appalling public transport, hugely expensive childcare, the lack of housing etc, etc … leads to only one conclusion: no serious government can escape the need for huge infrastructure investment. There’s no getting round it, so ways will have to be found unless we do just want to accept a decline into discrepitude and all the disasters that will bring.

    The septic isle of shit in every river and all around the coast has really, really cut through on the doorsteps.

    People are furious that the Tories are still giving out exemptions to the water companies, and the fact that several of these companies or their private equity backers are Conservative donors only stokes the wrath.
    Septic Isle is a great phrase.

    Almost Shakespeare 🤔
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,479
    edited September 2023

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    I pay 62% marginal rate on my income at the moment.

    How much would you like me to pay? 70%? 80%? 100%?

    Sentiments like this are stagnating the country and will lead to a brain drain from Britain, which will cost the exchequer not add to it.
    I could justify a high marginal tax rate on myself (like you it is very high), if we were getting something for it but under Tory Britain it’s an all time high and yet the public services are on their face, schools are falling apart, nothing runs on time and younger people get fleeced to pay for the elderly and their gold-plated triple locked pension.
    And, expect it to go even higher under Labour with broadly the same experience.

    We spend too much and don't have a broad enough tax base with enough growth.

    That's the root of our problems.
    Do you feel the Conservatives have made progress on either on those?
    Over the last 13 years? Yes. They've taken a large number of people out of income tax altogether, raised the 40p band to over £50k and reduced the additional rate from 50p to 45p. They've smoothed the UC taper rate to incentivise moving into work at the lower end. And they've also argued (under Boris) the 40p band ceiling should be increased still further.

    Right now, it's terrible - they've frozen the bands, and jacked up the burden through fiscal drag - but at least they're talking about tax cuts and reducing the burden as an aspiration.

    By contrast, I don't hear Labour talking at all about this. Not only would their tax on private schools cost me thousands we don't have, and throw my kids out of the school they love, but I expect Labour would also increase the additional rate, and extenuate fiscal drag as well.

    Now, you might not agree with me on all of that but at the very least you can hopefully appreciate why I might not be enamoured by it.
    "taken a large number of people out of income tax altogether"

    But then shoved them back in. Fiscal drag as you say. At a time of high inflation, about to get a boost when they finally impose customs controls and finish off Brexit (that's why the delay, apart from incompetence). Absolutely no changes to tax allowances to reflect that. In fact some have been reduced - savings interest allowance, CGT allowance, etc.

    That's what is happening to *everyone* - except the pensioners, insofar as NI is really an income tax which hits the workers.

    What Labout might or might not do is irrelevant, by comparison, especially this far out from an election.

    You sound like a Glasgow football fan trying to excuse paedophilia in his club by wondering what the opposition club's scouts do in dark corners, and claiming that the opposition trainer just might possibly be a cannibal.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,546
    edited September 2023
    Yeah I think so. I listened to Keegan yesterday and she seemed fine - why am I being held accountable for something that happened in 1994, etc - and this is obviously a long-standing problem.

    However, as was shown yesterday in the HoC yesterday, "Britain is literally falling apart under 13 years of Conservative rule" is a zinger and super effective to seed (yet) further discontent with this govt.

    The only reprieve for them would be if the minutes to a secret meeting in 1997 were somehow discovered wherein Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, Jeremy Corbyn, and Keir Starmer together conspired to put RAAC into every school and hospital.

    Which is entirely possible, of course. But still Rishi I think is going down and he will go down screaming "it's not fair" in that irritating way of his.
  • Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    I pay 62% marginal rate on my income at the moment.

    How much would you like me to pay? 70%? 80%? 100%?

    Sentiments like this are stagnating the country and will lead to a brain drain from Britain, which will cost the exchequer not add to it.
    You pay 62% while others who earn the same amount or actually earn more than you pay considerably less.

    That's the root of the problem.

    If everyone earning the same amount pays the same taxes, then those who are overtaxed could pay less tax.

    Taxes suck, they should be as low as possible, but they should be consistently applied and unavoidable. Picking a lucky few who don't need to pay taxes just increases the burden on everyone else. When those who aren't paying taxes aren't just a few, then it massively increases the burden on everyone else.
  • Here's a thought: infrastructure takes years, and sometimes decades, to put into place. If the government want utilities to cope with an increasing population, they should tell the utilities how many people they will have to serve in ten and twenty years' time. If the population is higher than that figure, the government takes the blame if the utilities cannot cope. If lower, the government pays the utilities compensation, either directly or through the consumers.

    But that's getting dangerously near medium-term planning, which we don't do.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,479
    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    The crumbling schools, the turds pouring into our water, a collapsing health service, the social care crisis, appalling public transport, hugely expensive childcare, the lack of housing etc, etc … leads to only one conclusion: no serious government can escape the need for huge infrastructure investment. There’s no getting round it, so ways will have to be found unless we do just want to accept a decline into discrepitude and all the disasters that will bring.

    The septic isle of shit in every river and all around the coast has really, really cut through on the doorsteps.

    People are furious that the Tories are still giving out exemptions to the water companies, and the fact that several of these companies or their private equity backers are Conservative donors only stokes the wrath.
    Septic Isle is a great phrase.

    Almost Shakespeare 🤔
    "Nook-shotten Isle of Albion" also occurs in the chap's oeuvre - - or at least our English master explained it as shitty-cornered, and ignore the textbook trying to make it out it meant 'full of corners'.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,587
    edited September 2023

    I’m not sure exactly what the problem is with Heathener’s posts according to some. Yes they’re very Labour-biased/anti-Tory but then lots of posts are pro-Tory and they don’t have the same predictable replies.

    This site is as its best when we have a variety of opinions, I really think the attacking of Heathener really has gone on too long when the posts are far more interesting to read than “why is everything so woke” or “aliens” or “COVID was started in a lab this far-right blog post says so”.

    He/her/they never says anything original. All Heatheners posts are based on an anti Tory rant of varying nastiness. It's just a bore.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,021
    edited September 2023
    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    AIUI the English Education Ministry changed government advice on RAAC a few days ago. Previously the advice was to inspect your buildings for RAAC, to keep a close eye on it, but to leave it in place unless it deteriorates.

    Now it seems RAAC panels can disintegrate suddenly and without warning. Does that mean rooms containing RAAC should not be used? Keegan referred vaguely yesterday to mitigations. What are these mitigations?

    Does anyone know more about this?

    Mitigations presumably like the 2400 props holding up the roof at Kings Lynn Hospital.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-norfolk-63137642

    It must incentivise the operating team to get a move on, when the operating theatre roof is being held up by props...
    From the article:

    The hospital is undergoing a major programme to support the roof with huge wooden ceiling struts (so if parts of it collapse, it's less likely to hurt people).

    Each one of these pieces of wood is counted as a "prop". So as they are only part way through the programme, we can expect the number of "props" to rise to even higher numbers over the next year.

    And that will be the case until 2030 when the majority of the building will be classed as unsafe to work in.


    All very reassuring. You would definitely be spending most of your time looking up at the ceiling.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,891

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    The biggest block to voting Labour is the historical tendency of a number in the party to believe that spending money on something is, of itself, good.

    The problem is that organisations, especially large ones, have an impressive ability to absorb money with no result evident. Apart from the organisation being a bit larger.

    Tony Blair realised this and made fiscal discipline a priority.

    However, what we need is something stronger than that. Both parties appear to have given up on the idea of increasing productivity by the methods that actually work - as proved in the real world many times, in many organisations.
    I agree with much of that. But it's dangerously near the 'efficiency' talk we hear about all the time. And a big problem with that is that one person's 'efficiency' is another person's 'inefficiency'. The current concrete kafuffle is a good example: in terms of cost (not politics), would it have been cheaper in the long run to renew all these RAAC buildings five years ago, or keep a watching brief on them? Quite possibly the latter.

    Also, if you don't use a particular service, it's easy to think that that service is wasteful.
    I think there are a lot of possibilities for genuine efficiency savings and productivity improvements in the NHS. Indeed the CoE outlined quite a few in his book, which is well worth the read.

    Fundamental to these is not being at constant war with the staff. That is simply bad management.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,450
    FF43 said:

    From the article:

    The hospital is undergoing a major programme to support the roof with huge wooden ceiling struts (so if parts of it collapse, it's less likely to hurt people).

    Each one of these pieces of wood is counted as a "prop". So as they are only part way through the programme, we can expect the number of "props" to rise to even higher numbers over the next year.

    And that will be the case until 2030 when the majority of the building will be classed as unsafe to work in.


    All very reassuring. You would definitely be spending most of your time looking up at the ceiling.

    Who will be the first Tory to claim this patriotic solution, "just like Churchill's war rooms"...
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,541
    edited September 2023
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Cicero said:

    I think Keegan is safe.
    It’s a fuck-up, but she does “human” reasonably ok, which is a rare thing in Tory politics.

    As for Sunak, he is of course fucked.
    Unlike Keegan, he’s *personally* responsible for slashing school repair budgets.

    The Mail AND the Telegraph are turning against him.
    Not just with these front pages, you can see the commentariat start to re-position itself, too.

    Meanwhile, Keir’s re-shuffle has quietly impressed the more thoughtful analysts with its decisive and lack of sentimental focus on being a government-in-waiting.

    I would not rule out a kamikaze leadership bid by Suella Braverman, but not until after next year’s locals.

    In the shorter-term, I think the Tories lose Mid-Beds even if Labour/LD cannot agree who to rally behind.

    Tories third? If so, they are not even in for a 97 shellacking, but something worse...
    Third is very possible. It would be interesting to see a betting market on that.

    Why would anyone vote for this shitshow?
    Because it's in me and my family's interests to do so.

    I don't share the values of SKS, or their hangers-on quite frankly, and I know Labour will be coming for me.
    Playing devil's advocate: why is it bad for Labour to come for you?

    You're apparently in a well-paid job, and have a comfortable life. You live in a society where lots - millions, in fact - of people don't have the advantages you have. Yes, you pay lots of tax. But many of the things that are wrong with this country can only be fixed with an increased tax take - and the question is where that comes from.

    Someone has to pay tax - the question, as always, is how much of the burden falls on which individuals.
    The biggest block to voting Labour is the historical tendency of a number in the party to believe that spending money on something is, of itself, good.

    The problem is that organisations, especially large ones, have an impressive ability to absorb money with no result evident. Apart from the organisation being a bit larger.

    Tony Blair realised this and made fiscal discipline a priority.

    However, what we need is something stronger than that. Both parties appear to have given up on the idea of increasing productivity by the methods that actually work - as proved in the real world many times, in many organisations.
    I agree with much of that. But it's dangerously near the 'efficiency' talk we hear about all the time. And a big problem with that is that one person's 'efficiency' is another person's 'inefficiency'. The current concrete kafuffle is a good example: in terms of cost (not politics), would it have been cheaper in the long run to renew all these RAAC buildings five years ago, or keep a watching brief on them? Quite possibly the latter.

    Also, if you don't use a particular service, it's easy to think that that service is wasteful.
    I think there are a lot of possibilities for genuine efficiency savings and productivity improvements in the NHS. Indeed the CoE outlined quite a few in his book, which is well worth the read.

    Fundamental to these is not being at constant war with the staff. That is simply bad management.
    Yes the Church of England is always preaching about harmony, loving your neighbour and other stuff like that.

    Politics often doesn't work the same way.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,546
    Strange interview with some school governor on Today this morning. Blaming the govt while saying her own school filled out 2x DoE surveys last year and everything was fine and filled out another this summer and they realised they had a problem. And hence evil Tories. What is in these surveys.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,546
    FF43 said:



    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    AIUI the English Education Ministry changed government advice on RAAC a few days ago. Previously the advice was to inspect your buildings for RAAC, to keep a close eye on it, but to leave it in place unless it deteriorates.

    Now it seems RAAC panels can disintegrate suddenly and without warning. Does that mean rooms containing RAAC should not be used? Keegan referred vaguely yesterday to mitigations. What are these mitigations?

    Does anyone know more about this?

    Mitigations presumably like the 2400 props holding up the roof at Kings Lynn Hospital.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-norfolk-63137642

    It must incentivise the operating team to get a move on, when the operating theatre roof is being held up by props...
    From the article:

    The hospital is undergoing a major programme to support the roof with huge wooden ceiling struts (so if parts of it collapse, it's less likely to hurt people).

    Each one of these pieces of wood is counted as a "prop". So as they are only part way through the programme, we can expect the number of "props" to rise to even higher numbers over the next year.

    And that will be the case until 2030 when the majority of the building will be classed as unsafe to work in.


    All very reassuring. You would definitely be spending most of your time looking up at the ceiling.
    Kings Lynn hospital is a shithole whatever is holding up the roof.
  • My grandson’s school makes it into the headlines for all the wrong reasons. Another school year in which his education suffers:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-66710706

    The mind-blowing thing is that Sunak was presented with all the evidence of the problems and how serious they were, and decided to cut the repairs budget in half. I just don’t see how you come back from a decision like that. It’s unforgivable.

    I and other commentators have been saying for a while that the country is literally falling apart. Public services that we pay record amounts for whilst getting something that barely works. This isn't a woke lefty hit the Tories perspective, it is the lived experience of ordinary voters.

    Crumbling schools is the perfect illustration of life under the Conservatives. We pay record taxes. We have crappy infrastructure and services where you now have to pay a spiv for a driving test - corruption is bedding in across all sectors. Schools are already buggered - teachers having to spend their own poor salaries on food and clothes for poor kids abandoned by the system.

    And now this. They stopped replacing schools. They stopped repairing schools. And faced with repeated warnings about schools literally collapsing around the kids they cut funding for that as well.

    As so utterly infuriates @Casino_Royale when we point to the evidence, his party Do Not Care about the lives of ordinary people. They simply aren't important. Which is why this scandal is already resonating across the political spectrum so loudly.

    Is Sunak about to face a visit from Mrs Brady? I think that depends on how he responds to this. A starter for 10 is reversing yesterday's "go fuck yourselves" statement from the Treasury and finding money to fix this mess. Some genuine humility - "we got this wrong whilst we were busy fighting Covid, we'll sort it" - would help. But I'm not sure he can do either.

    If he tries to bat it aside and Tory MPs start feeling the heat then he will be gone. But replaced by what? And when Braverman or Hunt or Anderson tries to claim they have a mandate to govern, the howling laughter will only sink them even lower in the polls.

    Give up.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 47,891
    edited September 2023
    TOPPING said:

    FF43 said:



    Foxy said:

    FF43 said:

    AIUI the English Education Ministry changed government advice on RAAC a few days ago. Previously the advice was to inspect your buildings for RAAC, to keep a close eye on it, but to leave it in place unless it deteriorates.

    Now it seems RAAC panels can disintegrate suddenly and without warning. Does that mean rooms containing RAAC should not be used? Keegan referred vaguely yesterday to mitigations. What are these mitigations?

    Does anyone know more about this?

    Mitigations presumably like the 2400 props holding up the roof at Kings Lynn Hospital.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-norfolk-63137642

    It must incentivise the operating team to get a move on, when the operating theatre roof is being held up by props...
    From the article:

    The hospital is undergoing a major programme to support the roof with huge wooden ceiling struts (so if parts of it collapse, it's less likely to hurt people).

    Each one of these pieces of wood is counted as a "prop". So as they are only part way through the programme, we can expect the number of "props" to rise to even higher numbers over the next year.

    And that will be the case until 2030 when the majority of the building will be classed as unsafe to work in.


    All very reassuring. You would definitely be spending most of your time looking up at the ceiling.
    Kings Lynn hospital is a shithole whatever is holding up the roof.
    From what I hear the Fens are poorly served, but it is hard to attract quality staff to a hospital in such a state.
This discussion has been closed.