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Sunak – are we approaching the end days? – politicalbetting.com

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  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    Andy_JS said:

    "£100m cost of botched IT system
    Birmingham Council leader John Cotton has said he wants to be transparent over costs

    Another issue adding to the council's financial woes is its Oracle IT system. Council leader John Cotton said earlier this year "the total cost may run to £100m" in order to fix problems. The IT issues have been affecting payments, data management and background checks. The Oracle system was brought in to overhaul internal functions including payments and HR processes. According to a council report, the authority was meant to change such processes to fit Oracle's requirements. Instead, another approach was taken and the problems emerged. It is estimated the final cost to put things right is in the region of £100m, with the report requesting £46.53m this year to fund."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-england-birmingham-66717957


    "A flawed IT system at Birmingham City Council has led to a primary school being visited by bailiffs and staff not being paid, a governor says.

    Oracle deals with payroll, invoices and HR, and other council-run schools in the city are facing similar issues, governor Nigel Smith said. A lease firm tried to seize minibuses used by the school via the council after payments were not made or lost. The council accepted there had been issues and was trying to correct them."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-65715415

    Putting aside the use of Oracle and having to deal with their licensing department...

    ...another 'oh, it doesn't quite fit with how our department works' fiasco.

    Buy it and use it. Or don't buy it. How many times must this lesson be learned?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Ghedebrav said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The Post Office Inquiry has just got underway again after the summer break.

    https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgijUpaux8X4Nvjx3TmrHhg

    Has Paula Vennells appeared yet? She must be an interesting character.
    No. None of the people one would really like to see at the inquiry have appeared so far. Recently it seems to be mostly legal experts.
    For all the slightly silly ‘force convicts to attend sentencing’ legislation, you’d think compelling fairly obviously culpable people to submit to public enquiry would be at least as pressing an issue.

    It is an incredibly complex case and beyond my tiny smooth brain to comprehend. What isn’t hard to comprehend is the scale of the impact in terms of lives ruined.
    Is actually really fucking simple

    1) they commissioned a new accounting system
    2) it was shit and multiple/phantom transaction s were being recorded all over the place
    3) based on the bullshit data they started prosecuting people
    4) some people suggested there was a problem with the system
    5) they were stamped on by managers who’d nailed their trousers to the success of the new system.
    6) more of 4)
    7) more of 5)
    8) keep looping for a while
    :
    126) the problem is now totally obvious and the managers are lying to everyone. Including concealing evidence from courts.

    In my professional opinion, Vir said all that needs to be said.

    You’ll divert Ms Cyclefree from whatever she’s involved with at the moment!
    @Cyclefree has written several headers on this. This kind of crap is what she deals with professionally.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,404
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@SimonClarkeMP

    Birmingham joins a long list of Labour run councils that have gone bust - Croydon, Nottingham, Slough.
    This year councils’ core spending power rose 9.2%.
    It is not good enough for councils to claim poverty - they need proper leadership and innovation."

    https://twitter.com/SimonClarkeMP/status/1699009786711269463

    Don’t forget Tory run Thurrock!
    Tory run Northamptonshire too, IIRC.

    Hardly fair to blame Labour for the mess in Birmingham, this affects the council going back many years over various different regimes.

    Central govt should not bail them out. The local council tax payers should foot the bill.
    It might not be fair but isnt that what Labour is doing on RAAC ? Sauce for the goose etc.
    Isn't the current RAAC issue more the govt knew about it and did not plan for it. Sunak cutting the budget, for example, more they contributed to the issue.

    I feel sorry for Keegan, she has just been handed the shit end of the stick and is trying to deal with something that is not her fault.

    It was a cheap thing of ITV news to do yesterday as well.
    Birmingham has known about the court case payout for ages and just kept kicking the can down the road. No real difference imo
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Ghedebrav said:

    On topic, part of me increasingly thinks Sunak will not last until the election.

    After Beds, the next by-election is likely to be Tamworth post-Chris Pincher. That will be a hard one for Labour to take - a Red Wall seat with a large Tory majority and in an area where Labour struggled in the local elections. And I do not think they would. If the Conservatives were to keep both Mid-Beds and Tamworth, then there would a decent indication that Labour has not sealed the deal with the electorate.

    Ironically though, that may make Sunak more vulnerable. If Tory MPs think they will lose anyway, they would probably be resigned to keeping Sunak on. However, if they think there is a chance the election is still up for grabs, they are likely to want someone who does well in a GE campaign which is unlikely to be Sunak.

    In that scenario, I would see Hunt stepping up to PM (to solidify the Blue Wall) and appointing a Red Waller as Deputy PM (he teamed up with Esther McVey on his PM campaign for leader last year), and seeing what happens.

    Did Labour struggle in the last locals in Tamworth? I thought last time they’d done better, although after a run of doing badly.
    Again points to the relatively uselessness of ‘Red Wall’ as a descriptor. Tamworth is a bellwether seat, as was its predecessor.

    Just lazy journalese for shithole place north of Watford (in their view).

    The closest you’d get to a real definition would be somewhere like Don Valley (I type this at my my dad’s house, a few doors down from Nick Fletcher’s constituency office). Somewhere working class that had always been reliably Labour but with 20%+ Shire Tory rump and a proclivity to small-C conservativism manifesting in votes for UKIP or other fringe right wingers.

    Places like Bury, Tamworth, Pudsey,


    …are not Red Wall.

    Vanilla is not my friend today.

    Edity edity

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited September 2023

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@SimonClarkeMP

    Birmingham joins a long list of Labour run councils that have gone bust - Croydon, Nottingham, Slough.
    This year councils’ core spending power rose 9.2%.
    It is not good enough for councils to claim poverty - they need proper leadership and innovation."

    https://twitter.com/SimonClarkeMP/status/1699009786711269463

    Don’t forget Tory run Thurrock!
    Tory run Northamptonshire too, IIRC.

    Hardly fair to blame Labour for the mess in Birmingham, this affects the council going back many years over various different regimes.

    Central govt should not bail them out. The local council tax payers should foot the bill.
    It might not be fair but isnt that what Labour is doing on RAAC ? Sauce for the goose etc.
    Isn't the current RAAC issue more the govt knew about it and did not plan for it. Sunak cutting the budget, for example, more they contributed to the issue.

    I feel sorry for Keegan, she has just been handed the shit end of the stick and is trying to deal with something that is not her fault.

    It was a cheap thing of ITV news to do yesterday as well.
    Birmingham has known about the court case payout for ages and just kept kicking the can down the road. No real difference imo
    At least one very big difference. The schools won't fall down just because Miss wasn't paid her due. Bad as the latter was (see also Glasgow).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    This thread is sort of bankrupt. Or at least trading in an insolvent state.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906


    Part of the problem is that “the system” is afraid that an honest appraisal of the cost of an increasing population will increase anti-immigrant racism.

    You can see some of that here, with posters angrily stating that a population increasing much faster than the supply of properties isn’t the cause of a high housing prices.

    Not long ago, someone objected to the idea of building on the cake required - new cities - on the grounds that it would “fundamentally change the character of the country”. The character of the country has already fundamentally changed.

    Because it’s about people. It has been decided to move population growth to levels associated with developing countries - approaching 1% a year.

    Go to such developing countries. What you see is this - villages become towns, towns become cities on a by-the-year basis. It is visible and obvious.

    In this country we have tried to freeze time. The bucolic hamlet in the Cotswolds has been forced to remain a hamlet. In other times it would have been a town now.

    Those other times have returned.

    I keep coming back to the idea that we need to build an entire Birmingham every two years just to stand still. Hardly anyone seems to take it seriously, and yet unless my understanding of the scale of the issue is really out of whack I'm confident that I'm right. This has been staring us in the face for 20 years now.

    Then there is as you say the idea of freezing time, when Green Belts came into being the UK population was about 50 million people, it's now very close to 70 million, and likely to hit 80 million before 2050 now.

    It is completely insane to watch a population increase by 40%, to see 60% steemrolling towards you, and to expect towns and cities to remain the same size forever, and also to oppose almost all new large-scale development.

    This UK is run by and mosly populated by people with their head in the sand. It is utterly perplexing to me that we seem incapable of grasping the scale of the problem and the necessary actions.

    The only thing likely to fix the UK's infrastructure and lack of development now is a major war that causes enormous distruction making change unavoidable.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    So this am we have one PB righty suggesting he may leave the UK because of SKS’s red in tooth and claw socialism while another might consider voting for SKS* because of his crypto Toryism. Funny ol world as Anabozina might say.

    *dear reader, he did not.

    Starmer is mastering Blairite triangulation.
    He’s trying to replicate it, dunno if he’s mastering it. I don’t think he’s got the left corner on board as much as the master did.
    The Left didn’t have the Cult of Jessiah to focus on, in 1997, with the bullshit of We So Nearly But Was Robbed…

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677

    Catching up on the debate on here this morning the thought has entered my mind for the first time that I might have to seriously consider leaving the country.

    Eswatini.

    ✔️ Monarchy
    ✔️ Not 'Woke'
    ✔️ Eat Loads of Meat
    ✔️ Low Income Tax
    ✔️ No Ground Source Heat Pumps
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited September 2023
    148grss said:

    kinabalu said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Ludlow not getting any uglier. Pevsner called this stretch of street “unforgettable”



    On topic, Starmer’s Labour are now so right wing I am tempted to vote for them as ideologically preferable to the Tories. I dunno how that makes PB lefties feel….

    It makes me feel like my assessment of SKS and his handling of the Labour party is correct
    He's trolling.
    I mean, he doesn't have to be. Starmer keeps going out of his way to say he won't reverse the worst of Tory policies. He has ruled out raising money through taxes, slashed the budget for his green investment plans, and was unwilling to back pay rises that even Sunak conceded. I have no reason to believe that Starmer's government will do anything positive - it will try to stabilise and institutionalise the policies the Tories have pushed. What positive policies is he suggesting? What left wing position has he taken (that he hasn't later reneged on)?
    He is, trust me.

    As for what this upcoming Labour government will be like, I think at worst much better than these Tories simply on ethics and competence, but I'm hoping for more. If they end up doing sweet fa about reducing inequality in our country I'll be annoyed and would probably resign my membership. For now I'm happy to reserve judgment until they've had the chance to do things. Which means winning a GE. Otherwise all the policies in the world are worth nothing. We have to be in power and SKS, in my view, is getting it right as regards securing this. Or let's put it this way, I think he is, the evidence says he is, and the thought of not winning, thus yet more years of tory rule, is so grim that I'm motivated to be onboard and supportive at this point rather than sniping and moaning. I could easily do the latter, because I'm on the left, I joined the Corbyn party not the Blair one, but I'm not going to unless and until the party in power disappoints.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    rkrkrk said:

    Catching up on the debate on here this morning the thought has entered my mind for the first time that I might have to seriously consider leaving the country.

    @MaxPB and @Gardenwalker are onto something. And I'm probably a mug.

    You've left it 10 years too late I reckon.
    I left the UK almost exactly 10 years ago and don't regret it at all. The only aspect with the timing, was that it turned out to be a race against time to get pre-Brexit German citizenship, as there is an absolute minimum of 6 years in the country before you are allowed to apply.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Taz said:

    Good afternoon

    Having been very busy this morning the first story I read when I go back online is Birmingham City Council have gone bankrupt

    Where on earth is this all going to end

    Birmingham City Council effectively declares bankruptcy after being hit by £760m bill

    Birmingham City Council has formally declared itself in financial distress - confirming in a statement that all new spending, with the exception of protecting vulnerable people and statutory services, must stop immediately.

    The Brummie Council Tax Payers need to put their hands in their pockets.
    How much impact on all this was hosting the Commonwealth Games?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "@SimonClarkeMP

    Birmingham joins a long list of Labour run councils that have gone bust - Croydon, Nottingham, Slough.
    This year councils’ core spending power rose 9.2%.
    It is not good enough for councils to claim poverty - they need proper leadership and innovation."

    https://twitter.com/SimonClarkeMP/status/1699009786711269463

    Don’t forget Tory run Thurrock!
    Tory run Northamptonshire too, IIRC.

    Hardly fair to blame Labour for the mess in Birmingham, this affects the council going back many years over various different regimes.

    Central govt should not bail them out. The local council tax payers should foot the bill.
    It might not be fair but isnt that what Labour is doing on RAAC ? Sauce for the goose etc.
    Isn't the current RAAC issue more the govt knew about it and did not plan for it. Sunak cutting the budget, for example, more they contributed to the issue.

    I feel sorry for Keegan, she has just been handed the shit end of the stick and is trying to deal with something that is not her fault.

    It was a cheap thing of ITV news to do yesterday as well.
    I'd be amazed if TR presenters never swear and moan off air. Truth is the broadcasters just cannot help themselves - just like with Gordon Brown. They think it reveals the true thoughts of those who have slipped ip.

    And they are right.

    Brown really did think she was a 'bigoted woman'. Whether that was because he misheard her, or just because of her general complaint, who can say.

    Keegan probably thinks she is doing a heroic job, firefighting things that should have been sorted years ago.

    We also have a problem with recognition and reward. You are employed and set targets. You achieve targets. At the same time problem X arises (and you may well feel that X is not your fault). You receive the appropriate bonus for hitting ALL your targets. Meanwhile X is a huge story and suddenly people are clamouring for blood and outraged at the payment of bonuses when X is happening.

    I don't now if Keegan is doing a good job. She reportedly worked remotely while on holiday (don't tell that nasty Somerset Tory about how that works...) She may feel that she has given up her holiday to sort this issue (or at least start to). So I can understand if she is frustrated.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    nico679 said:

    I wonder what the location of the 50 schools is.

    Great question . The media should be all over this.
    These days journalists don't investigate, they summarise data somebody else brings them
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    kinabalu said:

    148grss said:

    kinabalu said:

    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    Ludlow not getting any uglier. Pevsner called this stretch of street “unforgettable”



    On topic, Starmer’s Labour are now so right wing I am tempted to vote for them as ideologically preferable to the Tories. I dunno how that makes PB lefties feel….

    It makes me feel like my assessment of SKS and his handling of the Labour party is correct
    He's trolling.
    I mean, he doesn't have to be. Starmer keeps going out of his way to say he won't reverse the worst of Tory policies. He has ruled out raising money through taxes, slashed the budget for his green investment plans, and was unwilling to back pay rises that even Sunak conceded. I have no reason to believe that Starmer's government will do anything positive - it will try to stabilise and institutionalise the policies the Tories have pushed. What positive policies is he suggesting? What left wing position has he taken (that he hasn't later reneged on)?
    He is, trust me.

    As for what this upcoming Labour government will be like, I think at worst much better than these Tories simply on ethics and competence, but I'm hoping for more. If they end up doing sweet fa about reducing inequality in our country I'll be annoyed and would probably resign my membership. For now I'm happy to reserve judgment until they've had the chance to do things. Which means winning a GE. Otherwise all the policies in the world are worth nothing. We have to be in power and SKS, in my view, is getting it right as regards securing this. Or let's put it this way, I think he is, the evidence says he is, and the thought of not winning, thus yet more years of tory rule, is so grim that I'm motivated to be onboard and supportive at this point rather than sniping and moaning. I could easily do the latter, because I'm on the left, I joined the Corbyn party not the Blair one, but I'm not going to unless and until the party in power disappoints.
    I don't understand the "they need to win a GE to do things, therefore saying anything to win a GE is fine" position. If SKS is saying he will do things I dislike and won't do things I like, I will believe him. If I shouldn't believe him in the hope that he is secretly a lefty and when in power will act like it - how can I make that judgement? Maybe based on his leadership pledges when he ran for Labour, when he lied arguing he was Corbynism in a suit, but his actions as party leader suggest he is regressive, authoritarian and more interested in crushing the left than doing anything positive with his position. He has surrounded himself with staffers and MPs who are on the centre / right of the party. Wes Streeting is going to be in charge of the NHS, and he's out here arguing for more privatisation. No, I do not believe they are trying to win the GE and then the secret socialist inside them will shine through. Their mission is simple; make the choice between Tory and Labour an aesthetic one where Labour may (only may) make slightly more progressive noises on a few things, whereas the Tories will foam at the mouth with disdain. Same economics, same actual policies, but a slightly nicer and organised image.
  • So this am we have one PB righty suggesting he may leave the UK because of SKS’s red in tooth and claw socialism while another might consider voting for SKS* because of his crypto Toryism. Funny ol world as Anabozina might say.

    *dear reader, he did not.

    Starmer's national socialism is obviously a vote winner.
  • And also Tory run Thurrock and Woking as well as Lab run Slough and Croydon... More are likely to follow. Political control doesn't really come into it. Austerity policies in the last decade or more have stripped local authorities of vast amounts of funding and our crumbling services are testament to that. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/aug/28/at-least-26-english-councils-at-risk-of-bankruptcy-in-next-two-years
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    And also Tory run Thurrock and Woking as well as Lab run Slough and Croydon... More are likely to follow. Political control doesn't really come into it. Austerity policies in the last decade or more have stripped local authorities of vast amounts of funding and our crumbling services are testament to that. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/aug/28/at-least-26-english-councils-at-risk-of-bankruptcy-in-next-two-years

    Oh in Woking the Tories really did screw up spectacularly.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Dura_Ace said:

    Catching up on the debate on here this morning the thought has entered my mind for the first time that I might have to seriously consider leaving the country.

    Eswatini.

    ✔️ Monarchy
    ✔️ Not 'Woke'
    ✔️ Eat Loads of Meat
    ✔️ Low Income Tax
    ✔️ No Ground Source Heat Pumps
    But no venison because that is a vegetable (to anyone new that is just gibberish).
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    glw said:


    Part of the problem is that “the system” is afraid that an honest appraisal of the cost of an increasing population will increase anti-immigrant racism.

    You can see some of that here, with posters angrily stating that a population increasing much faster than the supply of properties isn’t the cause of a high housing prices.

    Not long ago, someone objected to the idea of building on the cake required - new cities - on the grounds that it would “fundamentally change the character of the country”. The character of the country has already fundamentally changed.

    Because it’s about people. It has been decided to move population growth to levels associated with developing countries - approaching 1% a year.

    Go to such developing countries. What you see is this - villages become towns, towns become cities on a by-the-year basis. It is visible and obvious.

    In this country we have tried to freeze time. The bucolic hamlet in the Cotswolds has been forced to remain a hamlet. In other times it would have been a town now.

    Those other times have returned.

    I keep coming back to the idea that we need to build an entire Birmingham every two years just to stand still. Hardly anyone seems to take it seriously, and yet unless my understanding of the scale of the issue is really out of whack I'm confident that I'm right. This has been staring us in the face for 20 years now.

    Then there is as you say the idea of freezing time, when Green Belts came into being the UK population was about 50 million people, it's now very close to 70 million, and likely to hit 80 million before 2050 now.

    It is completely insane to watch a population increase by 40%, to see 60% steemrolling towards you, and to expect towns and cities to remain the same size forever, and also to oppose almost all new large-scale development.

    This UK is run by and mosly populated by people with their head in the sand. It is utterly perplexing to me that we seem incapable of grasping the scale of the problem and the necessary actions.

    The only thing likely to fix the UK's infrastructure and lack of development now is a major war that causes enormous distruction making change unavoidable.
    Indeed
This discussion has been closed.