Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sunak’s constant boasting is not doing him any good – politicalbetting.com

124»

Comments

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    edited September 2023

    I’ve promised my wife we will leave the US if Trump comes back.

    Get out while you can frankly.
    The education system does not impress me, so there was always going to be a brake on our staying for too long.
    Some friends of mine just moved back to the UK after 5 years so their daughter could start school here. Luckily, they could transfer their jobs within the same companies - albeit with lower pay.

    Edit: though they moved to the US after Trump was elected, so I don't think that was the motive.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Was only a one termer, but still. Former Tea party apparently - remember that more pleasant age?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    RobD said:

    Disruption caused by Just Stop Oil = bad
    Disruption caused by Stop ULEZ = good

    You said that exact same thing earlier, but does anyone here actually hold that contradictory position?
    Suella, Rishi, Boris, 30p,..
  • carnforth said:

    I’ve promised my wife we will leave the US if Trump comes back.

    Get out while you can frankly.
    The education system does not impress me, so there was always going to be a brake on our staying for too long.
    Some friends of mine just moved back to the UK after 5 years so their daughter could start school here. Luckily, they could transfer their jobs within the same companies - albeit with lower pay.
    I have a daughter in primary and I don’t really want her doing secondary here. My son is still a year off starting.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Just finished another eleven hour shift, so up to sixty hours hours since the Bank Holiday. I think I’ll get to seventy-five for the week after working tomorrow and Monday

    I popped into Waitrose on the way home and got cheap dinner (a minted pea and bacon quiche for £1.39!). On my way in, I saw Peter Mandelson at the checkout (buying sushi and what looked like stir fry ingredients). I’ve known for years that he lives nearby, but it’s the first time I’ve seen him

    You should have stolen his place in the queue, after asking him if he knew who you are?

    :wink:
    That would have been quite some manoeuvre given I didn't yet have shopping and there was an empty self checkout next to the one he was using!

    I know quite a few people that have met him socially, or served him in shops, or worked at his place, and they've all liked him. Even though most of them haven't liked his politics
    I’ve met him and he seemed perfectly charming. I never did understand the loathing he induced
    Homophobia in the mix, I suppose.
    Also, Mandelson never bothered to disguise his centrism, so the left abjured him, and he was seriously clever, and never tried to hide that either, which annoyed everyone

    He would have made an excellent,
    Machiavellian prime minister. A British Macron
    Terrible judgement

    That moustache. QED

    It was the 80's.
  • dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak plans war on nuisance pedicab drivers who rip off Brits

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1698057255411704074

    Cones hotline anyone?

    What is a pedicab?
    At the risk of sounding like a judge?
    A tuk-tuk.
    Nope, a tuk-tuk (or auto-rikshaw in India) is motorised.
  • nico679 said:

    After the concrete crumbling now concerns about asbestos according to the Sunday Times .

    Fuck it. Let's just lockdown again so no one has to leave their house.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak plans war on nuisance pedicab drivers who rip off Brits

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1698057255411704074

    Cones hotline anyone?

    What is a pedicab?
    At the risk of sounding like a judge?
    A tuk-tuk.

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak plans war on nuisance pedicab drivers who rip off Brits

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1698057255411704074

    Cones hotline anyone?

    What is a pedicab?
    At the risk of sounding like a judge?
    A tuk-tuk.
    So.
    Something which doesn't exist outside London?
    In my idler moments I do wonder which Party it is obsessed by the concerns of a Metropolitan elite.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak plans war on nuisance pedicab drivers who rip off Brits

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1698057255411704074

    Cones hotline anyone?

    What is a pedicab?
    At the risk of sounding like a judge?
    A tuk-tuk.

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak plans war on nuisance pedicab drivers who rip off Brits

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1698057255411704074

    Cones hotline anyone?

    What is a pedicab?
    At the risk of sounding like a judge?
    A tuk-tuk.
    So.
    Something which doesn't exist outside London?
    In my idler moments I do wonder which Party it is obsessed by the concerns of a Metropolitan elite.
    As I said, one probably got in the way of his motorcade.
    Literally nobody cares about this.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    kle4 said:

    Was only a one termer, but still. Former Tea party apparently - remember that more pleasant age?

    Should I break it that Trump is old too?
  • viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Just finished another eleven hour shift, so up to sixty hours hours since the Bank Holiday. I think I’ll get to seventy-five for the week after working tomorrow and Monday

    I popped into Waitrose on the way home and got cheap dinner (a minted pea and bacon quiche for £1.39!). On my way in, I saw Peter Mandelson at the checkout (buying sushi and what looked like stir fry ingredients). I’ve known for years that he lives nearby, but it’s the first time I’ve seen him

    You should have stolen his place in the queue, after asking him if he knew who you are?

    :wink:
    That would have been quite some manoeuvre given I didn't yet have shopping and there was an empty self checkout next to the one he was using!

    I know quite a few people that have met him socially, or served him in shops, or worked at his place, and they've all liked him. Even though most of them haven't liked his politics
    I’ve met him and he seemed perfectly charming. I never did understand the loathing he induced
    Homophobia in the mix, I suppose.
    Also, Mandelson never bothered to disguise his centrism, so the left abjured him, and he was seriously clever, and never tried to hide that either, which annoyed everyone

    He would have made an excellent,
    Machiavellian prime minister. A British Macron
    Terrible judgement

    That moustache. QED

    It was the 80's.
    Those moustaches are back. Or were, not that long ago. I’m not going to pretend I’m in anyway still “down with the kids”.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Just finished another eleven hour shift, so up to sixty hours hours since the Bank Holiday. I think I’ll get to seventy-five for the week after working tomorrow and Monday

    I popped into Waitrose on the way home and got cheap dinner (a minted pea and bacon quiche for £1.39!). On my way in, I saw Peter Mandelson at the checkout (buying sushi and what looked like stir fry ingredients). I’ve known for years that he lives nearby, but it’s the first time I’ve seen him

    You should have stolen his place in the queue, after asking him if he knew who you are?

    :wink:
    That would have been quite some manoeuvre given I didn't yet have shopping and there was an empty self checkout next to the one he was using!

    I know quite a few people that have met him socially, or served him in shops, or worked at his place, and they've all liked him. Even though most of them haven't liked his politics
    I’ve met him and he seemed perfectly charming. I never did understand the loathing he induced
    Homophobia in the mix, I suppose.
    Also, Mandelson never bothered to disguise his centrism, so the left abjured him, and he was seriously clever, and never tried to hide that either, which annoyed everyone

    He would have made an excellent,
    Machiavellian prime minister. A British Macron
    Terrible judgement

    That moustache. QED

    It was the 80's.


    IDK, still not selling it for me.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak plans war on nuisance pedicab drivers who rip off Brits

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1698057255411704074

    Cones hotline anyone?

    What is a pedicab?
    At the risk of sounding like a judge?
    A tuk-tuk.
    Nope, a tuk-tuk (or auto-rikshaw in India) is motorised.
    I thought that. I take it he means a rickshaw?
    Not seen one of them since I was in India.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak plans war on nuisance pedicab drivers who rip off Brits

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1698057255411704074

    Cones hotline anyone?

    What is a pedicab?
    At the risk of sounding like a judge?
    A tuk-tuk.

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak plans war on nuisance pedicab drivers who rip off Brits

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1698057255411704074

    Cones hotline anyone?

    What is a pedicab?
    At the risk of sounding like a judge?
    A tuk-tuk.
    So.
    Something which doesn't exist outside London?
    In my idler moments I do wonder which Party it is obsessed by the concerns of a Metropolitan elite.
    As I said, one probably got in the way of his motorcade.
    Literally nobody cares about this.
    Or has the slightest idea what he's on about.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .

    Nigelb said:

    .

    ...

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with Mike.

    I don't think Sunak is anything like such a flawed character as Boris Johnson but in terms of political electability he is far worse. He is not (yet) the liability that Liz Truss was but he is extraordinarily tone deaf to where people are at. And he becomes petulant when questioned: how dare any minion be so rude as to doubt his truth?

    I have Conservative friends who really dislike him and that's not a good sign.

    Good evening

    Sunak is the best the conservatives have got, despite his flaws, and the mountain that the toxic legacy of Johnson and the diabolical Truss left him is a very tall order to overcome

    If tonight's poll by Opinium in the Guardian is anything to go by neither Sunak or Starmer are setting the narrative alight with only 27% and 23% respectively seeing Starmer better than Sunak as PM

    I expect the conservatives to pay a price at the next GE, but even Starmer's most avid fans must accept he is hardly inspiring the nation
    Other pollsters also do best PM and Opinium are by far the stingiest in Starmer’s lead. Of other pollsters have recently polled this, Starmer leads Sunak 44-34 (R&W) and 37-28 (We Think) on the "better PM" question. Even in unliked outgoing governments it’s supposed to be hard for a PM to fall so far behind on this measure.

    No, Sunak is not “the best the Conservatives have got” not by any measure. You are dangerously misreading this situation. Sunak is now out of touch with the public, not because he is filthy rich but because his politics and that of the government he leads has been revealed to be too dry and right wing for the UK today. He promises, over promises, and doesn’t deliver. Which makes every new promise, vow and policy, worthless. The result is voters are no longer listening to him selectively quoting and talking up we have never had it so good, and they won’t all they way up to voting day.

    The scale of the Tory catastrophe at the next General Election does not rest at all on Starmer and his policy’s “inspiring the nation”, it will be based on the breadth and depth of voters no longer listening to the Conservatives, making the weeks of the election campaign all about how sleazy, useless, out of touch and dangerous the Tory Party are.

    The best hope for the Conservatives now is to change these faces and voices at the top of the government to more everyday, grounded and in touch fresh faces, in order for a more aspirational message that has more broader appeal across more voters to be listened to and considered.

    Hunt and Sunak cannot deliver that message, because they are no longer listened to. From here the Conservatives need to be listened to again, to save as many seats as they can. That’s why Sunak, Hunt and Braverman have to go.
    I think that Sunak probably is the best person for the job, which is to lose with enough dignity that the Tories can regroup.

    Funnily enough, everyone who dislikes the Tories wants Sunak to stay and 'lose with dignity' - God forbid the Tories should actually put a winner in place, nothing to upset the handover.
    Who is left as a winner? Boris could have won a by-election, the fact some nobody won it shows he probably could have, and potentially be on hand at least, but they have no winners to pick from.

    Though at this point they'd be more than happy if they could put May in and repeat 2017.
    I don't know if anyone could win from here, but they could at least be trying to do so. Sunak doesn't seem to have any ambitions to try to reach out to more people, just a pure core vote strategy.

    I'll repost my exercise from earlier this week. Curious how others would rate potential alternative leaders as potentially better or worse than Sunak.

    Tory MPs who might be better than Sunak, in my personal view:

    Gove
    Hunt
    Mordaunt
    Barclay
    Cleverly
    Dowden
    Donelan
    Tugendhat
    McVey

    Worse:
    Braverman
    Badenoch
    Shapps
    Patel
    Hancock
    Williamson

    Armageddon worst:
    Mogg

    Not put down Javid or Wallace as they're standing down.
    Bizarrely, I almost agree with your list.
    I would not include Dowden nor McVey.
    Gove would be unpopular but also innovative and energetic. Mordaunt is an empty vessel who'd be found out pretty quickly.

    Tugendhat is interesting. Question if he could grow into the job. Hunt would be like Sunak.

    FWIW, I think we should stick with Sunak. The problem can't be fixed by constant spinning the roulette wheel on the leader.
    Given that the problem is the leader, of course it would be fixed by spinning the wheel again.

    And we should stop expecting our leaders to have charisma, AND be detail-oriented workhorses who pore over briefing documents till 3 in the morning and get up at 6. Thatcher has really poisoned the well for future leaders in that regard. It's about assembling the right team around you. We know that Penny is a good commons performer, interviews well, and does 'human' - that's three things she can do that Sunak can't.
    Sorry. We are on our fifth. Why should a sixth solve the problem?
    Maybe the problem isn't the leader?
    Maybe it's the Tory Party?
    Is there a magic number where changing the leader is suddenly an unforgiveable solicism? I didn't hear these arguments made much when we desperately needed to get rid of Truss at all costs.
    Except they were.
    It was a joke then, and would be beyond a farce now.
    Which is media fluff that would dissolve as soon as people realise there's a decent leader getting behind a decent electoral prospectus.
    You sound like those guys going on about false consciousness.
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Rishi Sunak plans war on nuisance pedicab drivers who rip off Brits

    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1698057255411704074

    Cones hotline anyone?

    What is a pedicab?
    At the risk of sounding like a judge?
    A tuk-tuk.
    Nope, a tuk-tuk (or auto-rikshaw in India) is motorised.
    I thought that. I take it he means a rickshaw?
    Not seen one of them since I was in India.
    Yes, a rickshaw - muscle power only!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    These Trump polls smell off to me.
    But that’s also what I want to believe.

    Why he should be showing an appreciable rise in black support is absolutely beyond me.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-black-men-lose-faith-biden-democrats-2024-2023-08-01/
    The 28 year old voter there is:

    “Disappointed by what he sees as Democrats' lurch to the left, free spending and empty promises…”

    Which I just find a bizarre notion.
    Biden has been a moderate President and the economy is relatively successful.
    Quite a lot of this is just media framing.
    Along these lines.
    https://twitter.com/djrothkopf/status/1698075145498136850

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401
    I'm desperately concerned a rogue rickshaw will prevent me from getting to school on time so I miss the roof falling on my head.
    Jesus. Who thinks of this?
  • It's over.


    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    3h
    Donald Trump is now polling more than 45 points ahead of Ron DeSantis in the GOP primary.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Watching the Citeh highlights on MoTD. Michael Oliver really is sh***. I saw his league debut when he sent off two or three Albion players, he was dreadful. He hasn't got any better.
  • BBC delayed Brexit vote announcement, says David Dimbleby
    Former political presenter reveals corporation waited until completely sure of the result to announce it to the world
    ...
    Dimbleby said the BBC had made detailed studies of how voting had to go in each constituency for leave to win, and it became obvious what the outcome was well before his bosses allowed it to be broadcast.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/02/bbc-delayed-brexit-vote-announcement-reveals-david-dimbleby/ (£££)

    So the BBC was like PB with @Andy_JS's spreadsheet. Dimbleby was speaking on The News Agents podcast.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    BBC delayed Brexit vote announcement, says David Dimbleby
    Former political presenter reveals corporation waited until completely sure of the result to announce it to the world
    ...
    Dimbleby said the BBC had made detailed studies of how voting had to go in each constituency for leave to win, and it became obvious what the outcome was well before his bosses allowed it to be broadcast.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/02/bbc-delayed-brexit-vote-announcement-reveals-david-dimbleby/ (£££)

    So the BBC was like PB with @Andy_JS's spreadsheet. Dimbleby was speaking on The News Agents podcast.

    Which means their hesistance to indicate it was essentially already over kept the masses complacent and made PBers money. Good work BBC.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    Nigelb said:

    These Trump polls smell off to me.
    But that’s also what I want to believe.

    Why he should be showing an appreciable rise in black support is absolutely beyond me.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/some-black-men-lose-faith-biden-democrats-2024-2023-08-01/
    The 28 year old voter there is:

    “Disappointed by what he sees as Democrats' lurch to the left, free spending and empty promises…”

    Which I just find a bizarre notion.
    Biden has been a moderate President and the economy is relatively successful.
    Quite a lot of this is just media framing.
    Along these lines.
    https://twitter.com/djrothkopf/status/1698075145498136850

    Similarly:
    This is a hell of a way to say DeSantis won’t meet with Biden. Do you see any wording in the headline or the lede that states clearly that it’s DeSantis who is refusing to meet with Biden?
    https://twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1697994550797795470
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited September 2023
    dixiedean said:

    I'm desperately concerned a rogue rickshaw will prevent me from getting to school on time so I miss the roof falling on my head.
    Jesus. Who thinks of this?

    Dunno, but apropos of nothing, can I recommend the Doris Speed Appreciation account on Twitter?

    @dorisspeedfans

    It’s actually really good.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,783
    FF43 said:

    ..

    FF43 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Heathener said:

    Agree with Mike.

    I don't think Sunak is anything like such a flawed character as Boris Johnson but in terms of political electability he is far worse. He is not (yet) the liability that Liz Truss was but he is extraordinarily tone deaf to where people are at. And he becomes petulant when questioned: how dare any minion be so rude as to doubt his truth?

    I have Conservative friends who really dislike him and that's not a good sign.

    Good evening

    Sunak is the best the conservatives have got, despite his flaws, and the mountain that the toxic legacy of Johnson and the diabolical Truss left him is a very tall order to overcome

    If tonight's poll by Opinium in the Guardian is anything to go by neither Sunak or Starmer are setting the narrative alight with only 27% and 23% respectively seeing Starmer better than Sunak as PM

    I expect the conservatives to pay a price at the next GE, but even Starmer's most avid fans must accept he is hardly inspiring the nation
    Other pollsters also do best PM and Opinium are by far the stingiest in Starmer’s lead. Of other pollsters have recently polled this, Starmer leads Sunak 44-34 (R&W) and 37-28 (We Think) on the "better PM" question. Even in unliked outgoing governments it’s supposed to be hard for a PM to fall so far behind on this measure.

    No, Sunak is not “the best the Conservatives have got” not by any measure. You are dangerously misreading this situation. Sunak is now out of touch with the public, not because he is filthy rich but because his politics and that of the government he leads has been revealed to be too dry and right wing for the UK today. He promises, over promises, and doesn’t deliver. Which makes every new promise, vow and policy, worthless. The result is voters are no longer listening to him selectively quoting and talking up we have never had it so good, and they won’t all they way up to voting day.

    The scale of the Tory catastrophe at the next General Election does not rest at all on Starmer and his policy’s “inspiring the nation”, it will be based on the breadth and depth of voters no longer listening to the Conservatives, making the weeks of the election campaign all about how sleazy, useless, out of touch and dangerous the Tory Party are.

    The best hope for the Conservatives now is to change these faces and voices at the top of the government to more everyday, grounded and in touch fresh faces, in order for a more aspirational message that has more broader appeal across more voters to be listened to and considered.

    Hunt and Sunak cannot deliver that message, because they are no longer listened to. From here the Conservatives need to be listened to again, to save as many seats as they can. That’s why Sunak, Hunt and Braverman have to go.
    I think that Sunak probably is the best person for the job, which is to lose with enough dignity that the Tories can regroup.

    Funnily enough, everyone who dislikes the Tories wants Sunak to stay and 'lose with dignity' - God forbid the Tories should actually put a winner in place, nothing to upset the handover.
    COULD TRUSS REALLY MAKE A COMEBACK ????

    We need a header on this compelling prospect ....
    Despite limp-dicked comedy attacks on her tenure falling increasingly flat, given that she was done in for 'causing' bond-yields to rise to the dangerous highs of, um, half what they are now, Truss has never suggested that she wants to make a political comeback. Unlike the current incumbent, she knows that she'd be doing the Tory cause more harm than good.
    Sunak may be a dud, but a net favourability score of -25 still beats Liz Truss on -70. Liz Truss, who by the way firmly believes her catastrophic premiership was the fault of everyone else apart from her, is the most farcically deluded prime minister of them all.

    But farce isn't always funny. To your point.
    But she said words like 'growth!'. Before clambering under a desk. This is the hallmark of success.

    And before you make any such suggestion, there's no need to put any of her 'growth!' ideas to the test,

    Traitor.

    Thank god we have the likes of JRM, IDS and the blessed John Redwood keeping the shallow, shallow flame burning.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited September 2023

    It's over.
    3h Frank Luntz
    Donald Trump is now polling more than 45 points ahead of Ron DeSantis in the GOP primary.

    It never even began.

    None of them ever had a strategy for distinguishing themselves from Trump without pissing off his supporters. Christie never attempted the latter, and DeSantis and co never consistently managed the former.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Amusingly, DeSantis' campaign is moaning about a state GOP rigging things for Trump.

    “Irony is not lost on us that Trump and his cronies rail against elections that aren’t actually rigged, but then go rig an entire state’s election,” said an official with a second GOP presidential campaign who requested anonymity because they’re not authorized to speak publicly about their campaign’s strategy.

    A Trump adviser fired back, according to the report, telling NBC News that: "To attack Republican leadership for picking a process that they believe should be done by Republicans in Nevada, they’re also essentially attacking Republicans in Iowa."

    "You can’t attack a party process without attacking the grassroots.

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/rivals-accuse-nevada-gop-of-rigging-system-to-make-sure-trump-is-nominee/ar-AA1g7loD?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=a44e5be489e44745db56d03a61c8c643&ei=23

    Trump's team, naturally, have tremendous nerve, given Trump said in 2016 that he had indeed been calling it a rigged system, but he stopped doing that because he won (which indicated how he approaches elections generally).
  • kle4 said:

    BBC delayed Brexit vote announcement, says David Dimbleby
    Former political presenter reveals corporation waited until completely sure of the result to announce it to the world
    ...
    Dimbleby said the BBC had made detailed studies of how voting had to go in each constituency for leave to win, and it became obvious what the outcome was well before his bosses allowed it to be broadcast.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/02/bbc-delayed-brexit-vote-announcement-reveals-david-dimbleby/ (£££)

    So the BBC was like PB with @Andy_JS's spreadsheet. Dimbleby was speaking on The News Agents podcast.

    Which means their hesistance to indicate it was essentially already over kept the masses complacent and made PBers money. Good work BBC.
    As Dimbleby says and everyone knows, the BBC always waits until it is sure. Other outlets are happy to call results early even if they have to correct one or two later.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Was only a one termer, but still. Former Tea party apparently - remember that more pleasant age?

    Should I break it that Trump is old too?
    His people have an answer for that.

    His family and supporters are so sycophantic it's vomit inducing.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    kle4 said:

    BBC delayed Brexit vote announcement, says David Dimbleby
    Former political presenter reveals corporation waited until completely sure of the result to announce it to the world
    ...
    Dimbleby said the BBC had made detailed studies of how voting had to go in each constituency for leave to win, and it became obvious what the outcome was well before his bosses allowed it to be broadcast.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/09/02/bbc-delayed-brexit-vote-announcement-reveals-david-dimbleby/ (£££)

    So the BBC was like PB with @Andy_JS's spreadsheet. Dimbleby was speaking on The News Agents podcast.

    Which means their hesistance to indicate it was essentially already over kept the masses complacent and made PBers money. Good work BBC.
    As Dimbleby says and everyone knows, the BBC always waits until it is sure. Other outlets are happy to call results early even if they have to correct one or two later.
    I was only kidding, it's actually encouaging for news organisations to not just rush to be the first to report something in this day and age.
  • kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Was only a one termer, but still. Former Tea party apparently - remember that more pleasant age?

    Should I break it that Trump is old too?
    His people have an answer for that.

    His family and supporters are so sycophantic it's vomit inducing.
    It's a pre-fascist cult and America will rue the day shortly.
  • kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Was only a one termer, but still. Former Tea party apparently - remember that more pleasant age?

    Should I break it that Trump is old too?
    His people have an answer for that.

    His family and supporters are so sycophantic it's vomit inducing.
    It's a pre-fascist cult and America will rue the day shortly.
    Putin and Xi are certainly licking their lips.
  • dixiedean said:

    I'm desperately concerned a rogue rickshaw will prevent me from getting to school on time so I miss the roof falling on my head.
    Jesus. Who thinks of this?

    Dying days of the fag end administration.

    Grant Shapps to defence at a time when the country is pretty much at war will go down as a key sign.
  • kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Was only a one termer, but still. Former Tea party apparently - remember that more pleasant age?

    Should I break it that Trump is old too?
    His people have an answer for that.

    His family and supporters are so sycophantic it's vomit inducing.
    It's a pre-fascist cult and America will rue the day shortly.
    Putin and Xi are certainly licking their lips.
    Owen Matthews in this week's Spectator quoting a US strategist saying Putin would be mad not to just try and hold on and not talk ceasefires until the US election and see if Trump comes through.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited September 2023
    .

    It's over.


    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    3h
    Donald Trump is now polling more than 45 points ahead of Ron DeSantis in the GOP primary.

    It ain't over until the fat RICO codefendants sing.

    Truly there has never been a more enjoyable period of criminal defense gossip in my lifetime. Everybody's talking about who's got one of the RICO codefendants, how much they were paid, and then speculating about the misery of the employment.
    https://twitter.com/ASFleischman/status/1697995570382598249
  • kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Was only a one termer, but still. Former Tea party apparently - remember that more pleasant age?

    Should I break it that Trump is old too?
    His people have an answer for that.

    His family and supporters are so sycophantic it's vomit inducing.
    Last week we say a number of leading candidates from GOP - the party of law and order - declare they would support a convicted felon into the White House.

    The shark has been jumped.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    dixiedean said:

    I'm desperately concerned a rogue rickshaw will prevent me from getting to school on time so I miss the roof falling on my head.
    Jesus. Who thinks of this?

    Dying days of the fag end administration.

    Grant Shapps to defence at a time when the country is pretty much at war will go down as a key sign.
    One consolation is that he's unlikely to be post long enough to fuck up defence procurement more than it is now.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Was only a one termer, but still. Former Tea party apparently - remember that more pleasant age?

    Should I break it that Trump is old too?
    His people have an answer for that.

    His family and supporters are so sycophantic it's vomit inducing.
    It's a pre-fascist cult and America will rue the day shortly.
    You've got a rogue pre in there.
    If it's anything I'd describe it as Monarchist tbh.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Was only a one termer, but still. Former Tea party apparently - remember that more pleasant age?

    Should I break it that Trump is old too?
    His people have an answer for that.

    His family and supporters are so sycophantic it's vomit inducing.
    Possibly not Eric, whom Trump just threw under the bus in his latest deposition.
  • Nigelb said:

    .

    It's over.


    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    3h
    Donald Trump is now polling more than 45 points ahead of Ron DeSantis in the GOP primary.

    It ain't over until the fat RICO codefendants sing.

    Truly there has never been a more enjoyable period of criminal defense gossip in my lifetime. Everybody's talking about who's got one of the RICO codefendants, how much they were paid, and then speculating about the misery of the employment.
    https://twitter.com/ASFleischman/status/1697995570382598249
    Even in jail he wins the primary.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,401

    kle4 said:

    dixiedean said:

    kle4 said:

    Was only a one termer, but still. Former Tea party apparently - remember that more pleasant age?

    Should I break it that Trump is old too?
    His people have an answer for that.

    His family and supporters are so sycophantic it's vomit inducing.
    Last week we say a number of leading candidates from GOP - the party of law and order - declare they would support a convicted felon into the White House.

    The shark has been jumped.
    The party of law and order over here thinks it's reasonable to destroy government property if it inconveniences so why not?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    On a happier note, it looks like summer is here:


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    7h
    New WSJ poll: Biden 46%, Trump 46%.

    I am alarmed.

    Tocqueville: "Let us therefore have that salutary fear of the future that makes one watchful and combative, and not that sort of soft and idle terror that wears hearts down and enervates them."

    Until the results of Trump's court cases are known head to head polling v Biden means little.

    If he is convicted the polling shows most Independents will dump Trump like a stone, if he is not convicted then most likely he will return to the White House again
    I don't think it means nothing, because one would hope his admitted conduct even if not criminal would still be a barrier to the job for independents and those wavering voters - he did seek to prevent the transfer of power after all, whether he crossed over into criminality in doing so or not.

    It's still worrying that he is running neck and neck (which could be enough to win if it pans out) with all those issues, even if it becomes true that his support will drop if he is actually convicted.
    Is it worrying? No not really. If Americans decide to re elect Trump that is up to them. Biden is hardly great, indeed if Trump hadn't pushed to try and overturn the election results in 2020 and accepted them with good grace and not taken home national security secrets he would be odds on to be re elected US President.

    It is time for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security not just rely on the US too
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    7h
    New WSJ poll: Biden 46%, Trump 46%.

    I am alarmed.

    Tocqueville: "Let us therefore have that salutary fear of the future that makes one watchful and combative, and not that sort of soft and idle terror that wears hearts down and enervates them."

    Until the results of Trump's court cases are known head to head polling v Biden means little.

    If he is convicted the polling shows most Independents will dump Trump like a stone, if he is not convicted then most likely he will return to the White House again
    Er... isn't it most likely that none of the court case will have reached a conclusion by November 2024?
    Nope, the first case starts next March so will likely be concluded by autumn
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    7h
    New WSJ poll: Biden 46%, Trump 46%.

    I am alarmed.

    Tocqueville: "Let us therefore have that salutary fear of the future that makes one watchful and combative, and not that sort of soft and idle terror that wears hearts down and enervates them."

    Until the results of Trump's court cases are known head to head polling v Biden means little.

    If he is convicted the polling shows most Independents will dump Trump like a stone, if he is not convicted then most likely he will return to the White House again
    I don't think it means nothing, because one would hope his admitted conduct even if not criminal would still be a barrier to the job for independents and those wavering voters - he did seek to prevent the transfer of power after all, whether he crossed over into criminality in doing so or not.

    It's still worrying that he is running neck and neck (which could be enough to win if it pans out) with all those issues, even if it becomes true that his support will drop if he is actually convicted.
    Is it worrying? No not really. If Americans decide to re elect Trump that is up to them. Biden is hardly great, indeed if Trump hadn't pushed to try and overturn the election results in 2020 and accepted them with good grace and not taken home national security secrets he would be odds on to be re elected US President.

    It is time for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security not just rely on the US too
    Sadly I don't think Europe alone has the means to replace US support for Ukraine.
  • Big money donors desert Tories and switch to Labour
    Exclusive: Major blow for Rishi Sunak as tycoon who donated £750,000 opens wallet to Starmer – and hotelier who gifted £100,000 says 'incompetence' is driving backers away

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-donations-rishi-sunak-labour-b2399420.html

    Tbh I think we could have worked this out when Labour announced more donations than in the past and more than the Conservatives.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    edited September 2023
    Completely off topic, but interesting in itself -- and as a reminder that the US is a federal republic, where states often pursue rather different policies:

    "Mississippi went from being ranked the second-worst state in 2013 for fourth-grade reading to 21st in 2022. Louisiana and Alabama, meanwhile, were among only three states to see modest gains in fourth-grade reading during the pandemic, which saw massive learning setbacks in most other states.

    The turnaround in these three states has grabbed the attention of educators nationally, showing rapid progress is possible anywhere, even in areas that have struggled for decades with poverty and dismal literacy rates. The states have passed laws adopting similar reforms that emphasize phonics and early screenings for struggling kids."
    source: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/education/kids-reading-scores-have-soared-in-mississippi-miracle

    (They are referring to the NAEP tests, the best single source of data on US public school performance: https://nces.ed.gov/nationsreportcard/ )

    Naturally, these gains attracted skepticism from the Left. But others, notably the WaPo editorial board, think they are real: source$:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/03/11/phonics-schools-students-read-learn/ Because, says the Post, Mississippi is following the science.

    (Full disclosure: I am reasonably certain that the gains are real, though possibly exaggerated a bit.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    7h
    New WSJ poll: Biden 46%, Trump 46%.

    I am alarmed.

    Tocqueville: "Let us therefore have that salutary fear of the future that makes one watchful and combative, and not that sort of soft and idle terror that wears hearts down and enervates them."

    Until the results of Trump's court cases are known head to head polling v Biden means little.

    If he is convicted the polling shows most Independents will dump Trump like a stone, if he is not convicted then most likely he will return to the White House again
    I don't think it means nothing, because one would hope his admitted conduct even if not criminal would still be a barrier to the job for independents and those wavering voters - he did seek to prevent the transfer of power after all, whether he crossed over into criminality in doing so or not.

    It's still worrying that he is running neck and neck (which could be enough to win if it pans out) with all those issues, even if it becomes true that his support will drop if he is actually convicted.
    Is it worrying? No not really. If Americans decide to re elect Trump that is up to them. Biden is hardly great, indeed if Trump hadn't pushed to try and overturn the election results in 2020 and accepted them with good grace and not taken home national security secrets he would be odds on to be re elected US President.

    It is time for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security not just rely on the US too
    Sadly I don't think Europe alone has the means to replace US support for Ukraine.
    Of course it does, Germany, France and the UK and Poland combined easily do if Germany in particular bothered to spend enough on it. For goodness sake even the UK economy alone is bigger than Russia's. It is a matter of priority, we need to spend more on defence as Russia and the US do
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    edited September 2023
    Will Iowa evangelicals save the US from Trump? Conservative WaPo columnist Henry Olsen thinks they might: "I talked to Iowa evangelical pastors and grass-roots leaders, who understand the nuances of their community better than any pollster. Their message was surprisingly uniform: Iowa’s evangelicals haven’t made up their minds yet. Many retain affinity for Trump and might still back the former president. But they are taking advantage of the candidates’ frequent trips here to kick the tires and see whether there’s someone they like better — someone, I was repeatedly told, without so much baggage.

    That sentiment was particularly strong in Sioux County, where I spent half of my trip. The area, in Iowa’s far-northwest corner, is home to the nation’s largest concentration of Dutch Americans, a devoutly religious and conservative population. The county has backed religious and cultural conservatives in GOP caucuses since 1996. It is so conservative that it supported religious conservative Gary Bauer over the more moderate George W. Bush in the 2000 caucuses, as did two neighboring counties."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/30/trump-iowa-caucus-republican-primary-evangelicals/
    (Links omitted.)

    (Full disclosure: It's been so long since I lived in Iowa, I can't claim any personal knowledge of the politics of the state.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited September 2023
    We have a few evangelicals in the UK, but the funny thing - from a US perspective - is that they're just as likely to be left-wing as right-wing. The left-wing ones tend to be of the "beards and sandals" variety.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited September 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    We have a few evangelicals in the UK, but the funny thing - from a US perspective - is that they're just as likely to be left-wing as right-wing. The left-wing ones tend to be of the "beards and sandals" variety.

    Not really, especially once you add Baptists, Free Church, Independent and Pentecostals as well as Church of England evangelicals. Beard and Sandals Christians tend to be liberal Catholic Anglicans or Methodists
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    "Lib Dems aim to force earliest possible Mid Beds by-election

    The Liberal Democrats are trying to force ministers to hold the Mid Bedfordshire by-election at the start of October."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66671397
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    7h
    New WSJ poll: Biden 46%, Trump 46%.

    I am alarmed.

    Tocqueville: "Let us therefore have that salutary fear of the future that makes one watchful and combative, and not that sort of soft and idle terror that wears hearts down and enervates them."

    Until the results of Trump's court cases are known head to head polling v Biden means little.

    If he is convicted the polling shows most Independents will dump Trump like a stone, if he is not convicted then most likely he will return to the White House again
    I don't think it means nothing, because one would hope his admitted conduct even if not criminal would still be a barrier to the job for independents and those wavering voters - he did seek to prevent the transfer of power after all, whether he crossed over into criminality in doing so or not.

    It's still worrying that he is running neck and neck (which could be enough to win if it pans out) with all those issues, even if it becomes true that his support will drop if he is actually convicted.
    Is it worrying? No not really. If Americans decide to re elect Trump that is up to them. Biden is hardly great, indeed if Trump hadn't pushed to try and overturn the election results in 2020 and accepted them with good grace and not taken home national security secrets he would be odds on to be re elected US President.

    It is time for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security not just rely on the US too
    Sadly I don't think Europe alone has the means to replace US support for Ukraine.
    Of course it does, Germany, France and the UK and Poland combined easily do if Germany in particular bothered to spend enough on it. For goodness sake even the UK economy alone is bigger than Russia's. It is a matter of priority, we need to spend more on defence as Russia and the US do
    We don't have the quantity/quality of stuff the Americans have right now. Massive piles of useful things i.e. anti air missiles, artillery shells, guided rockets, APCs, F-16's.

    You can't imagineer up millions of 155mm shells.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    7h
    New WSJ poll: Biden 46%, Trump 46%.

    I am alarmed.

    Tocqueville: "Let us therefore have that salutary fear of the future that makes one watchful and combative, and not that sort of soft and idle terror that wears hearts down and enervates them."

    Until the results of Trump's court cases are known head to head polling v Biden means little.

    If he is convicted the polling shows most Independents will dump Trump like a stone, if he is not convicted then most likely he will return to the White House again
    I don't think it means nothing, because one would hope his admitted conduct even if not criminal would still be a barrier to the job for independents and those wavering voters - he did seek to prevent the transfer of power after all, whether he crossed over into criminality in doing so or not.

    It's still worrying that he is running neck and neck (which could be enough to win if it pans out) with all those issues, even if it becomes true that his support will drop if he is actually convicted.
    Is it worrying? No not really. If Americans decide to re elect Trump that is up to them. Biden is hardly great, indeed if Trump hadn't pushed to try and overturn the election results in 2020 and accepted them with good grace and not taken home national security secrets he would be odds on to be re elected US President.

    It is time for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security not just rely on the US too
    Sadly I don't think Europe alone has the means to replace US support for Ukraine.
    Of course it does, Germany, France and the UK and Poland combined easily do if Germany in particular bothered to spend enough on it. For goodness sake even the UK economy alone is bigger than Russia's. It is a matter of priority, we need to spend more on defence as Russia and the US do
    We don't have the quantity/quality of stuff the Americans have right now. Massive piles of useful things i.e. anti air missiles, artillery shells, guided rockets, APCs, F-16's.

    You can't imagineer up millions of 155mm shells.
    Sure you can.

    The imaginary ones just aren't as useful in battle.
  • Will Iowa evangelicals save the US from Trump? Conservative WaPo columnist Henry Olsen thinks they might: "I talked to Iowa evangelical pastors and grass-roots leaders, who understand the nuances of their community better than any pollster. Their message was surprisingly uniform: Iowa’s evangelicals haven’t made up their minds yet. Many retain affinity for Trump and might still back the former president. But they are taking advantage of the candidates’ frequent trips here to kick the tires and see whether there’s someone they like better — someone, I was repeatedly told, without so much baggage.

    That sentiment was particularly strong in Sioux County, where I spent half of my trip. The area, in Iowa’s far-northwest corner, is home to the nation’s largest concentration of Dutch Americans, a devoutly religious and conservative population. The county has backed religious and cultural conservatives in GOP caucuses since 1996. It is so conservative that it supported religious conservative Gary Bauer over the more moderate George W. Bush in the 2000 caucuses, as did two neighboring counties."
    source$: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/30/trump-iowa-caucus-republican-primary-evangelicals/
    (Links omitted.)

    (Full disclosure: It's been so long since I lived in Iowa, I can't claim any personal knowledge of the politics of the state.)

    For what it's worth - 2016 Iowa Republican precinct caucus results for Sioux County (source NYT)
    > Ted Cruz 33.2%
    > Marco Rubio 32.0%
    > Ben Carson 14.9%
    > Donald Trump 10.95
    > other including undecided 9.0%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    7h
    New WSJ poll: Biden 46%, Trump 46%.

    I am alarmed.

    Tocqueville: "Let us therefore have that salutary fear of the future that makes one watchful and combative, and not that sort of soft and idle terror that wears hearts down and enervates them."

    Until the results of Trump's court cases are known head to head polling v Biden means little.

    If he is convicted the polling shows most Independents will dump Trump like a stone, if he is not convicted then most likely he will return to the White House again
    I don't think it means nothing, because one would hope his admitted conduct even if not criminal would still be a barrier to the job for independents and those wavering voters - he did seek to prevent the transfer of power after all, whether he crossed over into criminality in doing so or not.

    It's still worrying that he is running neck and neck (which could be enough to win if it pans out) with all those issues, even if it becomes true that his support will drop if he is actually convicted.
    Is it worrying? No not really. If Americans decide to re elect Trump that is up to them. Biden is hardly great, indeed if Trump hadn't pushed to try and overturn the election results in 2020 and accepted them with good grace and not taken home national security secrets he would be odds on to be re elected US President.

    It is time for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security not just rely on the US too
    Sadly I don't think Europe alone has the means to replace US support for Ukraine.
    Of course it does, Germany, France and the UK and Poland combined easily do if Germany in particular bothered to spend enough on it. For goodness sake even the UK economy alone is bigger than Russia's. It is a matter of priority, we need to spend more on defence as Russia and the US do
    We don't have the quantity/quality of stuff the Americans have right now. Massive piles of useful things i.e. anti air missiles, artillery shells, guided rockets, APCs, F-16's.

    You can't imagineer up millions of 155mm shells.
    You can if you are willing to spend to produce it. Why should Americans always have to fund European military security?
  • Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    Just finished another eleven hour shift, so up to sixty hours hours since the Bank Holiday. I think I’ll get to seventy-five for the week after working tomorrow and Monday

    I popped into Waitrose on the way home and got cheap dinner (a minted pea and bacon quiche for £1.39!). On my way in, I saw Peter Mandelson at the checkout (buying sushi and what looked like stir fry ingredients). I’ve known for years that he lives nearby, but it’s the first time I’ve seen him

    You should have stolen his place in the queue, after asking him if he knew who you are?

    :wink:
    That would have been quite some manoeuvre given I didn't yet have shopping and there was an empty self checkout next to the one he was using!

    I know quite a few people that have met him socially, or served him in shops, or worked at his place, and they've all liked him. Even though most of them haven't liked his politics
    I’ve met him and he seemed perfectly charming. I never did understand the loathing he induced
    Homophobia in the mix, I suppose.
    Also, Mandelson never bothered to disguise his centrism, so the left abjured him, and he was seriously clever, and never tried to hide that either, which annoyed everyone

    He would have made an excellent,
    Machiavellian prime minister. A British Macron
    Terrible judgement

    That moustache. QED

    One of Edwina Currie’s more memorable lines was that she knew Labour were serious about power when he shaved it off.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Andy_JS said:

    We have a few evangelicals in the UK, but the funny thing - from a US perspective - is that they're just as likely to be left-wing as right-wing. The left-wing ones tend to be of the "beards and sandals" variety.

    Um, you may not know what the word "Evangelical" means in this context. All the UK Evangelical I know are full-on bible every-word literalists and very keen on it. I can't think of anybody further away from the "beards and sandals" variety
  • viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a few evangelicals in the UK, but the funny thing - from a US perspective - is that they're just as likely to be left-wing as right-wing. The left-wing ones tend to be of the "beards and sandals" variety.

    Um, you may not know what the word "Evangelical" means in this context. All the UK Evangelical I know are full-on bible every-word literalists and very keen on it. I can't think of anybody further away from the "beards and sandals" variety
    Wasn’t Rowan Williams on the “evangelical wing” of the CoE?
  • Nigelb said:
    Bill Richardson was an interesting guy, made some unique contributions, for New Mexico and the United States.

    However, best to read through his wiki bio, which details and/or discusses his downside(s).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Richardson

    For what it's worth, NM political insiders were during his heyday, and after, were NOT circumspect re: BR's appreciation for young women. And I once ran into a woman, past the first blush of youth, however she''d was a teenager in Albuquerque, interested in politics when she meet Bill Richardson.

    Fair to say, he creeped her out.
  • viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a few evangelicals in the UK, but the funny thing - from a US perspective - is that they're just as likely to be left-wing as right-wing. The left-wing ones tend to be of the "beards and sandals" variety.

    Um, you may not know what the word "Evangelical" means in this context. All the UK Evangelical I know are full-on bible every-word literalists and very keen on it. I can't think of anybody further away from the "beards and sandals" variety
    Wasn’t Rowan Williams on the “evangelical wing” of the CoE?
    Apparently not, according to his Wiki bio.
    Anglo-Catholic, with strong left wing tendencies.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    7h
    New WSJ poll: Biden 46%, Trump 46%.

    I am alarmed.

    Tocqueville: "Let us therefore have that salutary fear of the future that makes one watchful and combative, and not that sort of soft and idle terror that wears hearts down and enervates them."

    Until the results of Trump's court cases are known head to head polling v Biden means little.

    If he is convicted the polling shows most Independents will dump Trump like a stone, if he is not convicted then most likely he will return to the White House again
    I don't think it means nothing, because one would hope his admitted conduct even if not criminal would still be a barrier to the job for independents and those wavering voters - he did seek to prevent the transfer of power after all, whether he crossed over into criminality in doing so or not.

    It's still worrying that he is running neck and neck (which could be enough to win if it pans out) with all those issues, even if it becomes true that his support will drop if he is actually convicted.
    Is it worrying? No not really. If Americans decide to re elect Trump that is up to them. Biden is hardly great, indeed if Trump hadn't pushed to try and overturn the election results in 2020 and accepted them with good grace and not taken home national security secrets he would be odds on to be re elected US President.

    It is time for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security not just rely on the US too
    No, it is very troubling.

    Right wing doesn't always mean Tory Party perfection. Sometime it means very malign totalitarians. Trump MK2 fits that frame.

    A pro-Putin fascist is not preferable to an old- centrist duffer who deeply reveres the US Constitution.
  • rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    carnforth said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    7h
    New WSJ poll: Biden 46%, Trump 46%.

    I am alarmed.

    Tocqueville: "Let us therefore have that salutary fear of the future that makes one watchful and combative, and not that sort of soft and idle terror that wears hearts down and enervates them."

    Until the results of Trump's court cases are known head to head polling v Biden means little.

    If he is convicted the polling shows most Independents will dump Trump like a stone, if he is not convicted then most likely he will return to the White House again
    I don't think it means nothing, because one would hope his admitted conduct even if not criminal would still be a barrier to the job for independents and those wavering voters - he did seek to prevent the transfer of power after all, whether he crossed over into criminality in doing so or not.

    It's still worrying that he is running neck and neck (which could be enough to win if it pans out) with all those issues, even if it becomes true that his support will drop if he is actually convicted.
    Is it worrying? No not really. If Americans decide to re elect Trump that is up to them. Biden is hardly great, indeed if Trump hadn't pushed to try and overturn the election results in 2020 and accepted them with good grace and not taken home national security secrets he would be odds on to be re elected US President.

    It is time for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security not just rely on the US too
    Sadly I don't think Europe alone has the means to replace US support for Ukraine.
    Of course it does, Germany, France and the UK and Poland combined easily do if Germany in particular bothered to spend enough on it. For goodness sake even the UK economy alone is bigger than Russia's. It is a matter of priority, we need to spend more on defence as Russia and the US do
    We don't have the quantity/quality of stuff the Americans have right now. Massive piles of useful things i.e. anti air missiles, artillery shells, guided rockets, APCs, F-16's.

    You can't imagineer up millions of 155mm shells.
    Sure you can.

    The imaginary ones just aren't as useful in battle.
    Maybe not in most battles.

    Against Russia's Potemkin military they just might hold their own.
  • viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a few evangelicals in the UK, but the funny thing - from a US perspective - is that they're just as likely to be left-wing as right-wing. The left-wing ones tend to be of the "beards and sandals" variety.

    Um, you may not know what the word "Evangelical" means in this context. All the UK Evangelical I know are full-on bible every-word literalists and very keen on it. I can't think of anybody further away from the "beards and sandals" variety
    In the USA, a minority of evangelicals - but given the size of the whole group a not insignificant number - are what might be called the "Christian Left".

    That is, they are strong on Christ and the Bible, etc., but tend to lay their stress on the Sermon on the Mount and other wokeish outbursts by Jesus.

    In my hood, a group on this description operates a very successful theater that puts on plays to a high standard, and is popular with evangelicals and other conservative Christians, many who come to town from the burbs for an evening.

    Year or so ago, they performed one of the works of Oscar Wilde.
  • Nigelb said:

    .

    It's over.


    Frank Luntz
    @FrankLuntz
    ·
    3h
    Donald Trump is now polling more than 45 points ahead of Ron DeSantis in the GOP primary.

    It ain't over until the fat RICO codefendants sing.

    Truly there has never been a more enjoyable period of criminal defense gossip in my lifetime. Everybody's talking about who's got one of the RICO codefendants, how much they were paid, and then speculating about the misery of the employment.
    https://twitter.com/ASFleischman/status/1697995570382598249
    Even in jail he wins the primary.
    Winning the primary isn't enough.

    Dream scenario is Biden beats Trump November next year by about 450 Electoral Votes to Trump's 88.
  • Re: evangelicals, Iowa and the precinct caucuses, back in 1988 a fellow field organizer told me of a young twenty-something guy he'd meet in Cedar Falls, a conservative Christian, who was trying to decided for which candidate he should caucus (which IS a verb in Iowa).

    His options: Pat Robertson or Jesse Jackson.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    edited September 2023
    Leon said:

    The Tucker Carlson/Viktor Orban interview has now had 123 million "views"

    If just 1 in 10 of the people who view it go on to click through and watch a bit, or a lot, or all, of the video, that means 12 million viewers

    That would be three times Carlson's average rating on Fox News when he was the most popular host there

    The number is whatever Musk says the number is so you'd have to be truly credulous to think it means anything other than a measure of his vanity.

    I don't think VVP would do Fucker's show on X because that puts him on the same level as Orban. It would have to be something bigger and different.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    edited September 2023
    Probably only in the Netherlands could a political party that didn't exist 3 weeks ago be leading in the opinion polls, in the shape of Pieter Omtzigt's New Social Contract.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_Dutch_general_election#Seats
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    There are still "cross cuting" cleavages in the US, though they are not as strong as they once were.

    Favorite example: The late Nat Hentoff -- who opposed capital punishment, and abortion, which would put that atheist, of Jewish descent, on the side of leftist Catholic nuns. (His Atlantic article, "The Awful Privacy of Baby Doe", is definitely worth reading, by the way.)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nat_Hentoff

    (Full disclosure: I have two of his free speech books, including the one with the wonderful title, "Free Sppech for Me -- But Not For Thee".)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    ...caucus (which IS a verb in Iowa)...

    I thought it was a verb everywhere?? One caucuses with others and the group thus formed is a caucus. Is it not that way in USA?

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    New Peter Hitchens article.

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/falling-out-of-love-with-america/

    "Falling Out of Love With America
    For visitors, the decline is palpable
    Peter Hitchens"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    7h
    New WSJ poll: Biden 46%, Trump 46%.

    I am alarmed.

    Tocqueville: "Let us therefore have that salutary fear of the future that makes one watchful and combative, and not that sort of soft and idle terror that wears hearts down and enervates them."

    Until the results of Trump's court cases are known head to head polling v Biden means little.

    If he is convicted the polling shows most Independents will dump Trump like a stone, if he is not convicted then most likely he will return to the White House again
    I don't think it means nothing, because one would hope his admitted conduct even if not criminal would still be a barrier to the job for independents and those wavering voters - he did seek to prevent the transfer of power after all, whether he crossed over into criminality in doing so or not.

    It's still worrying that he is running neck and neck (which could be enough to win if it pans out) with all those issues, even if it becomes true that his support will drop if he is actually convicted.
    Is it worrying? No not really. If Americans decide to re elect Trump that is up to them. Biden is hardly great, indeed if Trump hadn't pushed to try and overturn the election results in 2020 and accepted them with good grace and not taken home national security secrets he would be odds on to be re elected US President.

    It is time for Europe to take more responsibility for its own security not just rely on the US too
    So you're saying if Trump weren't a narcissistic crook, it would be fine ?

    Oh, and actually Biden has been one of the best presidents in the last three decades ... not that the competition is fierce.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited September 2023
    Andy_JS said:

    New Peter Hitchens article.

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/falling-out-of-love-with-america/

    "Falling Out of Love With America
    For visitors, the decline is palpable
    Peter Hitchens"

    Most of the world fell out of love with Hitchens a long time ago.
    Bit late for him to reciprocate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    The Tucker Carlson/Viktor Orban interview has now had 123 million "views"

    If just 1 in 10 of the people who view it go on to click through and watch a bit, or a lot, or all, of the video, that means 12 million viewers

    That would be three times Carlson's average rating on Fox News when he was the most popular host there

    The number is whatever Musk says the number is so you'd have to be truly credulous to think it means anything other than a measure of his vanity.

    I don't think VVP would do Fucker's show on X because that puts him on the same level as Orban. It would have to be something bigger and different.
    The metrics for Russian disinfo on X have gone through the roof since Musk took over.
    I think VVP will leave it at that.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a few evangelicals in the UK, but the funny thing - from a US perspective - is that they're just as likely to be left-wing as right-wing. The left-wing ones tend to be of the "beards and sandals" variety.

    Um, you may not know what the word "Evangelical" means in this context. All the UK Evangelical I know are full-on bible every-word literalists and very keen on it. I can't think of anybody further away from the "beards and sandals" variety
    In the USA, a minority of evangelicals - but given the size of the whole group a not insignificant number - are what might be called the "Christian Left".

    That is, they are strong on Christ and the Bible, etc., but tend to lay their stress on the Sermon on the Mount and other wokeish outbursts by Jesus.

    In my hood, a group on this description operates a very successful theater that puts on plays to a high standard, and is popular with evangelicals and other conservative Christians, many who come to town from the burbs for an evening.

    Year or so ago, they performed one of the works of Oscar Wilde.
    Salome ?
  • Nigelb said:

    viewcode said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a few evangelicals in the UK, but the funny thing - from a US perspective - is that they're just as likely to be left-wing as right-wing. The left-wing ones tend to be of the "beards and sandals" variety.

    Um, you may not know what the word "Evangelical" means in this context. All the UK Evangelical I know are full-on bible every-word literalists and very keen on it. I can't think of anybody further away from the "beards and sandals" variety
    In the USA, a minority of evangelicals - but given the size of the whole group a not insignificant number - are what might be called the "Christian Left".

    That is, they are strong on Christ and the Bible, etc., but tend to lay their stress on the Sermon on the Mount and other wokeish outbursts by Jesus.

    In my hood, a group on this description operates a very successful theater that puts on plays to a high standard, and is popular with evangelicals and other conservative Christians, many who come to town from the burbs for an evening.

    Year or so ago, they performed one of the works of Oscar Wilde.
    Salome ?
    Er, no. "Lady Windermere's Fan" methinks.

    Windermere is also the name of a Seattle neighborhood (thanks to early 20th-century realtor) which I sure boosted ticket sales.
  • viewcode said:

    ...caucus (which IS a verb in Iowa)...

    I thought it was a verb everywhere?? One caucuses with others and the group thus formed is a caucus. Is it not that way in USA?

    Yes. But knowing how touchy some PBers are about wordage, in particular American verb production, resorted to preemptive defense.
  • Andy_JS said:

    New Peter Hitchens article.

    https://www.theamericanconservative.com/falling-out-of-love-with-america/

    "Falling Out of Love With America
    For visitors, the decline is palpable
    Peter Hitchens"

    Just pseudo-plagiarism of writings of PB's leading international lounge lizard and Chief Morale Officer.
  • It’s a good piece by Hitchens until he starts saying it’s all gone downhill. He doesn’t explain why or even how, really.

    But he captures that sudden falling in love with the sheer expanse of the US, it’s exuberance and surprising gentility - very well.
This discussion has been closed.