Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

A great resource for all who follow UK politics – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,161
edited August 2023 in General
imageA great resource for all who follow UK politics – politicalbetting.com

The link to the above from the Commons library is well worth saving because of the mass of information that is available about every single Commons constituency with the new boundaries.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • FPT - My own theory re: Putin-bots on PB, is that RUS is using this board as TRAINING for their web-operatives.

    Which is why I suggest to Mods that, in future, instead of letting PBers toy with the fuckers for a while before banning, to ban them IMMEDIATELY upon discovery.

    Why? Because their interactions with actual PBers are HELPING (albeit in small way) the cause of Mad Vlad.
  • On Topic - thanks to OGH for posting this, just downloaded the demographic data.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    Thanks Mike. I feel a whole series of politics lessons coming on...
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    On Topic - thanks to OGH for posting this, just downloaded the demographic data.

    Wow! You’re quick off the mark!
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    I know Brexit is all so boring now blah blah blah, and the article does point out that there are other factors, but things like this really does make you wonder what the hell was the bloody point:

    https://www.theguardian.com/food/2023/aug/19/craft-beer-boom-uk-firms-bust-brexit
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    He's rich. He lives in the right area and knows the right people. Michael Gove admitted to cocaine use and was never even arrested. There are known photos of a famous politician with [redacted] and in the company of [redacted]. The list goes on and on.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398

    FPT - My own theory re: Putin-bots on PB, is that RUS is using this board as TRAINING for their web-operatives.

    Which is why I suggest to Mods that, in future, instead of letting PBers toy with the fuckers for a while before banning, to ban them IMMEDIATELY upon discovery.

    Why? Because their interactions with actual PBers are HELPING (albeit in small way) the cause of Mad Vlad.

    This is the problem with AI. When you give it tasks you are actually training it. If you try and outwit it then it just learns, adapts and gets smarter. It isn't difficult to see how it could get smarter than you.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,315
    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    FPT - My own theory re: Putin-bots on PB, is that RUS is using this board as TRAINING for their web-operatives.

    Which is why I suggest to Mods that, in future, instead of letting PBers toy with the fuckers for a while before banning, to ban them IMMEDIATELY upon discovery.

    Why? Because their interactions with actual PBers are HELPING (albeit in small way) the cause of Mad Vlad.

    That's not how you do it. You train one set of AIs to play the part of PB. You train another to play the part of the troll. You set one against the other and watch them evolve. Fun for all the narodny.
  • darkage said:

    FPT - My own theory re: Putin-bots on PB, is that RUS is using this board as TRAINING for their web-operatives.

    Which is why I suggest to Mods that, in future, instead of letting PBers toy with the fuckers for a while before banning, to ban them IMMEDIATELY upon discovery.

    Why? Because their interactions with actual PBers are HELPING (albeit in small way) the cause of Mad Vlad.

    This is the problem with AI. When you give it tasks you are actually training it. If you try and outwit it then it just learns, adapts and gets smarter. It isn't difficult to see how it could get smarter than you.
    Also problem with HUMANS who are being trained by RUS to spread their manure far and wide.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    darkage said:

    FPT - My own theory re: Putin-bots on PB, is that RUS is using this board as TRAINING for their web-operatives.

    Which is why I suggest to Mods that, in future, instead of letting PBers toy with the fuckers for a while before banning, to ban them IMMEDIATELY upon discovery.

    Why? Because their interactions with actual PBers are HELPING (albeit in small way) the cause of Mad Vlad.

    This is the problem with AI. When you give it tasks you are actually training it. If you try and outwit it then it just learns, adapts and gets smarter. It isn't difficult to see how it could get smarter than you.
    I'm not sure that a PB education helps an AI fit into greater society :)
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    It's somewhat reassuring that Trump is finally slipping a little betting-wise. Early days of course, but he should be an 8billion to one shot at least, and that's underplaying all of the other possibilities merits.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    edited August 2023
    Omnium said:

    darkage said:

    FPT - My own theory re: Putin-bots on PB, is that RUS is using this board as TRAINING for their web-operatives.

    Which is why I suggest to Mods that, in future, instead of letting PBers toy with the fuckers for a while before banning, to ban them IMMEDIATELY upon discovery.

    Why? Because their interactions with actual PBers are HELPING (albeit in small way) the cause of Mad Vlad.

    This is the problem with AI. When you give it tasks you are actually training it. If you try and outwit it then it just learns, adapts and gets smarter. It isn't difficult to see how it could get smarter than you.
    I'm not sure that a PB education helps an AI fit into greater society :)
    Bzzt bzzt pineapple bzzt bzzt Radiohead [falls over]
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    Omnium said:

    It's somewhat reassuring that Trump is finally slipping a little betting-wise. Early days of course, but he should be an 8billion to one shot at least, and that's underplaying all of the other possibilities merits.

    I watch that price like a hawk. Every tick longer is a joy.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    "The Prince of Wales has wished the England women's national team good luck ahead of the World Cup final and said he is sorry for not attending the game."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-66559702

    Astonishing news. Too late for him to get on a plane now, of course, but this has the potential to turn into a catastrophe for the monarchy if England do by some chance win tomorrow.

    Is Sunak still in California? If so, he'd be well advised to hot foot it to the airport in the next couple of hours and make sure he's in the stadium for the start of the match.
  • viewcode said:

    FPT - My own theory re: Putin-bots on PB, is that RUS is using this board as TRAINING for their web-operatives.

    Which is why I suggest to Mods that, in future, instead of letting PBers toy with the fuckers for a while before banning, to ban them IMMEDIATELY upon discovery.

    Why? Because their interactions with actual PBers are HELPING (albeit in small way) the cause of Mad Vlad.

    That's not how you do it. You train one set of AIs to play the part of PB. You train another to play the part of the troll. You set one against the other and watch them evolve. Fun for all the narodny.
    Perhaps the Putin-bots - including human Botniks - have already done that, and have graduated to the quasi-realworld of PB?

    BTW (also FYI) check out this pic, of the latest triumph of AI on the streets of San Francisco . . . the "self-driving'' car that drove into a street construction zone . . . and got stuck in wet concrete!

    https://www.teslarati.com/cruise-robotaxi-stuck-wet-concrete-san-francisco-photo/

  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,315
    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    He's rich. He lives in the right area and knows the right people. Michael Gove admitted to cocaine use and was never even arrested. There are known photos of a famous politician with [redacted] and in the company of [redacted]. The list goes on and on.
    Cocaine use is rampant in the UK & casual use is effectively decriminalised. The idea that Gove got “let off“ due to his position is absurd given that context.

    (Not saying this is a good or right position, but it seems to be the reality.)
  • CatMan said:

    I know Brexit is all so boring now blah blah blah, and the article does point out that there are other factors, but things like this really does make you wonder what the hell was the bloody point:

    https://www.theguardian.com/food/2023/aug/19/craft-beer-boom-uk-firms-bust-brexit

    Not read past the first paragraph, but a firm that opened in 2017 is blaming Brexit on going bust?

    Errr does nobody in the Grauniad spot an issue with the timeline?

    The sad reality of enterprise is that about 9/10 businesses fail. And failed businesses want a scapegoat, rather than admit their business model didn't work, or was mismanaged.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
    I think someone who views child abuse images is a threat. Those images are made - bluntly, those children are abused and images shared - because there are people like him who consume them.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    CatMan said:

    I know Brexit is all so boring now blah blah blah, and the article does point out that there are other factors, but things like this really does make you wonder what the hell was the bloody point:

    https://www.theguardian.com/food/2023/aug/19/craft-beer-boom-uk-firms-bust-brexit

    Not read past the first paragraph, but a firm that opened in 2017 is blaming Brexit on going bust?

    Errr does nobody in the Grauniad spot an issue with the timeline?

    The sad reality of enterprise is that about 9/10 businesses fail. And failed businesses want a scapegoat, rather than admit their business model didn't work, or was mismanaged.
    Brexit wasn't implemented for some time, if you remember. Still isn't completely done.
  • Omnium said:

    It's somewhat reassuring that Trump is finally slipping a little betting-wise. Early days of course, but he should be an 8billion to one shot at least, and that's underplaying all of the other possibilities merits.

    I'll take £2 at 8 billion to one please.

    I can buy more than a pint to drown my sorrows if he does somehow make it then.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058

    CatMan said:

    I know Brexit is all so boring now blah blah blah, and the article does point out that there are other factors, but things like this really does make you wonder what the hell was the bloody point:

    https://www.theguardian.com/food/2023/aug/19/craft-beer-boom-uk-firms-bust-brexit

    Not read past the first paragraph, but a firm that opened in 2017 is blaming Brexit on going bust?

    Errr does nobody in the Grauniad spot an issue with the timeline?

    The sad reality of enterprise is that about 9/10 businesses fail. And failed businesses want a scapegoat, rather than admit their business model didn't work, or was mismanaged.
    From the article:

    "“It just got too much – Brexit,” Karjalainen said. “We were heavily geared for export. We’d be selling to Finland, Sweden, Norway, Ireland, Netherlands, Italy, Spain. We had Hungary in the pipeline. And it all disappeared with Brexit.”

    Post-Brexit trading arrangements with European Union countries meant that Bone Machine’s craft beers needed to be accompanied by expensive and time-consuming paperwork.

    “Everyone was saying ‘it’s too complicated to import anything from the UK any more’,” Karjalainen said. “In terms of pure output, that was about 30% to 40% of what we made. In terms of income, it was probably more than half.”
    "
  • viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    He's rich. He lives in the right area and knows the right people. Michael Gove admitted to cocaine use and was never even arrested. There are known photos of a famous politician with [redacted] and in the company of [redacted]. The list goes on and on.
    Why the heck would Gove be arrested?

    Saying "I took drugs 20 years ago" isn't something anyone should be arrested for.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759
    kinabalu said:

    Omnium said:

    It's somewhat reassuring that Trump is finally slipping a little betting-wise. Early days of course, but he should be an 8billion to one shot at least, and that's underplaying all of the other possibilities merits.

    I watch that price like a hawk. Every tick longer is a joy.
    I find it very hard to wish ill on anyone really. Trump looking out from behind the bars though. Historically I also wanted Corbyn to have a small (but controllable) fire in his beard.

    I'm not sure if this is because I have little confidence in my own judgement versus the people I disapprove of, or because I'm a very understanding sort of a person - who knows. On another note - I am still seeking UK sources for cluster munitions.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Omnium said:

    It's somewhat reassuring that Trump is finally slipping a little betting-wise. Early days of course, but he should be an 8billion to one shot at least, and that's underplaying all of the other possibilities merits.

    I'll take £2 at 8 billion to one please.

    I can buy more than a pint to drown my sorrows if he does somehow make it then.
    I'd honour the bet, but alas I'll fail your credit check. I don't have 16bn in easily available funds. (Obviously I'd normally have that sort of sum as pocket change, but just temporarily I don't)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    DougSeal said:

    My dissertation is due in two weeks. I’m 4/5 of the way through it. None of it makes any sense anymore…

    Aaaargh!

    Eldest Granddaughter has finally finished hers, handed in and made the minor alterations felt necessary and been told everything is satisfactory.
    New job at around twice her current salary beckons!
    I'm doing this for "fun". In the middle of Lockdown 2 I decided that I would broaden my mind with all the spare time I had from not commuting and so started a 2 year part time MA at Birkbeck in Sept '21. Guest what two years after Sept '21 is... deadline 4 Sept.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    At least Ipswich won.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    An excellent (albeit very long) article on how the lab-leak theory got traction and where it fell down:

    https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

    Warning - it is very long, but you can dip in and out readily.

    I liked this bit:

    "As Reid explained it, the dispatches were written in “party speak”—“a secret language of Chinese officialdom”—which he was able to decode but which even native speakers of Mandarin could not be expected to understand. Almost as soon as the article was published, however, a more obvious explanation emerged when a number of Chinese speakers read the dispatches for themselves. As it turned out, they were able to understand them just fine and it was Reid who had made a mess of the translation. The supposedly incriminating passage about a biosafety emergency was in fact just political boilerplate about the willingness and readiness of loyal Party officials to meet the challenges of running a BSL-4 lab."
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
    Not just 'prison building', but also managing offenders when in prison, I think it is about £40k per person per year, and also dealing with the social cost of imprisonment, ie families breaking down, people not being able to work, difficulties in getting employed after leaving, reliance on benefits etc.

    In my view imprisonment is really only justified by public safety concerns, ie to keep dangerous offenders away from society. Less so as a form of punishment or rehabilitation - unless alternatives to imprisonment have been exhausted.
  • Carnyx said:

    An excellent (albeit very long) article on how the lab-leak theory got traction and where it fell down:

    https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

    Warning - it is very long, but you can dip in and out readily.

    I liked this bit:

    "As Reid explained it, the dispatches were written in “party speak”—“a secret language of Chinese officialdom”—which he was able to decode but which even native speakers of Mandarin could not be expected to understand. Almost as soon as the article was published, however, a more obvious explanation emerged when a number of Chinese speakers read the dispatches for themselves. As it turned out, they were able to understand them just fine and it was Reid who had made a mess of the translation. The supposedly incriminating passage about a biosafety emergency was in fact just political boilerplate about the willingness and readiness of loyal Party officials to meet the challenges of running a BSL-4 lab."
    It this expose, the real reason why "Leon" decided to (yet again) flounce out of PB?

    Seeing as how he made a fucking Feast of Balthazar out of the Lab Leak theory.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    edited August 2023
    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
    I'd quite like to see a current analysis of jail population vs crime committed for various countries.

    There are various groups that should obviously not be such a large group in prison, and some that need to have significantly more in prison.

    The biggest obvious group is that in June 2023 a prison population of 85,851, fully 17% or 15,523 are on remand. That was under 9500 in 2018 and 2019. It should be 10% of prison capacity lower.

    There are still people in prison from the New Labour Indeterminate Sentences debacle, though perhaps only ~1% of the prison population (My estimate). Yet another one where this Govt has sloped its shoulders.

    And there is a group who now get suspended sentences in significant numbers, who should be in custody, which is dangerous drivers who kill with their motor vehicles. The system allows a lot to get off with a guaranteed guilty plea to Causing Death by Careless Driving. Again not a huge number compared to on remand, and admittedly a particular issue I try and keep an eye on.

    The huge one is the on remand category, which is a post-Covid thing. Get the Court throughput resolved and the prison population pressure would go away.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    DougSeal said:

    My dissertation is due in two weeks. I’m 4/5 of the way through it. None of it makes any sense anymore…

    Aaaargh!

    Make sure you leave time for proofreading/tidying up at the end. Nicely formatted, typo-free work impresses the markers more than it should.

    Get someone else to read your work: your supervisor, obviously, but also your peers in your class (for whom you can read theirs in return). You get great value from someone coming new to your work.

    Make the very beginning and the very end punchy. Just like a novel, you want the opening lines to catch the reader’s attention, and you want the last thing the reader remembers to be some concise statement of what it all amounted to.

    Be clear what you’ve done and why. You’ve worked hard on this (hopefully!), but remember that the work you’ve done needs to be visible in the dissertation.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,315
    edited August 2023
    Cyclefree said:

    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
    I think someone who views child abuse images is a threat. Those images are made - bluntly, those children are abused and images shared - because there are people like him who consume them.
    He’s also 78. You (and I) might think he deserves prison, but the reality is that the prisons are full & to put him behind bars means leaving someone else out to potentially re-offend.

    He’s on the sex offender’s register for the rest of his likely lifetime & will be living under fairly onerous parole obligations if my recollection of similar cases is correct. The courts have concluded that this is the best way public safety can be preserved given the resources available to them. They can also only apply the sentencing guidelines for the crimes he was actually charged with.

    (I’m a little surprised that “making” child pornography doesn’t carry a mandatory jail sentence personally; is “making” potentially less serious than it sounds?)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    edited August 2023

    Carnyx said:

    An excellent (albeit very long) article on how the lab-leak theory got traction and where it fell down:

    https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

    Warning - it is very long, but you can dip in and out readily.

    I liked this bit:

    "As Reid explained it, the dispatches were written in “party speak”—“a secret language of Chinese officialdom”—which he was able to decode but which even native speakers of Mandarin could not be expected to understand. Almost as soon as the article was published, however, a more obvious explanation emerged when a number of Chinese speakers read the dispatches for themselves. As it turned out, they were able to understand them just fine and it was Reid who had made a mess of the translation. The supposedly incriminating passage about a biosafety emergency was in fact just political boilerplate about the willingness and readiness of loyal Party officials to meet the challenges of running a BSL-4 lab."
    It this expose, the real reason why "Leon" decided to (yet again) flounce out of PB?

    Seeing as how he made a fucking Feast of Balthazar out of the Lab Leak theory.
    No idea. Not somethging I can comment on. But I was reminded [edit] by the article how many on PB went on and on about Naomi Wolf making a mistake over reading old court case records. That was a simple one off, the sort of thing many of us have done and still wake up and sweat in the night about. But the above, the Chinese secret language, really takes application by comparison.

    I'm still very struck by the case distribution around the wet market. We were talking about the power of simple analusis, dot maps and so on, lately on PB. And the very telling point that those who didn't work at the market biut got covid early lived markedly closer to the market [edit] than those who did. It's like the Shipman dot map (murdering an elderly person conv eniently on the way home) or the Broad Street cholera map.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    MattW said:

    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
    I'd quite like to see a current analysis of jail population vs crime committed for various countries.

    There are various groups that should obviously not be such a large group in prison, and some that need to have significantly more in prison.

    The biggest obvious group is that in June 2023 a prison population of 85,851, fully 17% or 15,523 are on remand. That was under 9500 in 2018 and 2019. It should be 10% of prison capacity lower.

    There are still people in prison from the New Labour Indeterminate Sentences debacle, though perhaps only ~1% of the prison population (My estimate). Yet another one where this Govt has sloped its shoulders.

    And there is a group who now get suspended sentences in significant numbers, who should be in custody, which is dangerous drivers who kill with their motor vehicles. The system allows a lot to get off with a guaranteed guilty plea to Causing Death by Careless Driving. Again not a huge number compared to on remand, and admittedly a particular issue I try and keep an eye on.

    The huge one is the on remand category, which is a post-Covid thing. Get the Court throughput resolved and the prison population pressure would go away.
    Add note: source of my numbers, which I think means they are probably England figures:
    https://data.justice.gov.uk/prisons/offender-management
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
    That he’s now 78 might also go some way to explaining it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,148
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    An excellent (albeit very long) article on how the lab-leak theory got traction and where it fell down:

    https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

    Warning - it is very long, but you can dip in and out readily.

    I liked this bit:

    "As Reid explained it, the dispatches were written in “party speak”—“a secret language of Chinese officialdom”—which he was able to decode but which even native speakers of Mandarin could not be expected to understand. Almost as soon as the article was published, however, a more obvious explanation emerged when a number of Chinese speakers read the dispatches for themselves. As it turned out, they were able to understand them just fine and it was Reid who had made a mess of the translation. The supposedly incriminating passage about a biosafety emergency was in fact just political boilerplate about the willingness and readiness of loyal Party officials to meet the challenges of running a BSL-4 lab."
    It this expose, the real reason why "Leon" decided to (yet again) flounce out of PB?

    Seeing as how he made a fucking Feast of Balthazar out of the Lab Leak theory.
    No idea. Not somethging I can comment on. But I was reminded how many on PB went on and on about Naomi Wolf making a mistake over reading old court case records. That was a simple one off, the sort of thing many of us have done and still wake up and sweat in the night about. But the above, the Chinese secret language, really takes application by comparison.

    I'm still very struck by the case distribution around the wet market. We were talking about the power of simple analusis, dot maps and so on, lately on PB. And the very telling point that those who didn't work at the market biut got covid early lived markedly closer to the market. It's like the Shipman dot map (murdering an elderly person conv eniently on the way home) or the Broad Street cholera map.
    If it was a flounce, shouldn't I have notirced?

    Have to admit that "flounce" makes me think of a person leaving in a huff waving a feather duster threateningly in a Bertie Wooster novel.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
    I think someone who views child abuse images is a threat. Those images are made - bluntly, those children are abused and images shared - because there are people like him who consume them.
    He’s also 78. You (and I) might think he deserves prison, but the reality is that the prisons are full & to put him behind bars means leaving someone else out to potentially re-offend.

    He’s on the sex offender’s register for the rest of his likely lifetime & will be living under fairly onerous parole obligations if my recollection of similar cases is correct. The courts have concluded that this is the best way public safety can be preserved given the resources available to them. They can also only apply the sentencing guidelines for the crimes he was actually charged with.

    (I’m a little surprised that “making” child pornography doesn’t carry a mandatory jail sentence personally; is “making” potentially less serious than it sounds?)
    It just means viewing via a communication medium I think - i.e making a copy. Just old fashioned language IIRC.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    An excellent (albeit very long) article on how the lab-leak theory got traction and where it fell down:

    https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

    Warning - it is very long, but you can dip in and out readily.

    I liked this bit:

    "As Reid explained it, the dispatches were written in “party speak”—“a secret language of Chinese officialdom”—which he was able to decode but which even native speakers of Mandarin could not be expected to understand. Almost as soon as the article was published, however, a more obvious explanation emerged when a number of Chinese speakers read the dispatches for themselves. As it turned out, they were able to understand them just fine and it was Reid who had made a mess of the translation. The supposedly incriminating passage about a biosafety emergency was in fact just political boilerplate about the willingness and readiness of loyal Party officials to meet the challenges of running a BSL-4 lab."
    It this expose, the real reason why "Leon" decided to (yet again) flounce out of PB?

    Seeing as how he made a fucking Feast of Balthazar out of the Lab Leak theory.
    No idea. Not somethging I can comment on. But I was reminded how many on PB went on and on about Naomi Wolf making a mistake over reading old court case records. That was a simple one off, the sort of thing many of us have done and still wake up and sweat in the night about. But the above, the Chinese secret language, really takes application by comparison.

    I'm still very struck by the case distribution around the wet market. We were talking about the power of simple analusis, dot maps and so on, lately on PB. And the very telling point that those who didn't work at the market biut got covid early lived markedly closer to the market. It's like the Shipman dot map (murdering an elderly person conv eniently on the way home) or the Broad Street cholera map.
    If it was a flounce, shouldn't I have notirced?

    Have to admit that "flounce" makes me think of a person leaving in a huff waving a feather duster threateningly in a Bertie Wooster novel.
    Hadn't noticed it eiother myself. BTW have amended to make cxlear that the thing that reminded me re Ms Wolf was the article.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    edited August 2023
    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    My dissertation is due in two weeks. I’m 4/5 of the way through it. None of it makes any sense anymore…

    Aaaargh!

    Eldest Granddaughter has finally finished hers, handed in and made the minor alterations felt necessary and been told everything is satisfactory.
    New job at around twice her current salary beckons!
    I'm doing this for "fun". In the middle of Lockdown 2 I decided that I would broaden my mind with all the spare time I had from not commuting and so started a 2 year part time MA at Birkbeck in Sept '21. Guest what two years after Sept '21 is... deadline 4 Sept.
    I did something similar in my late 50’s. I was working for the NHS and our Trust offered to pay a significant part of the costs of a further degree so I ‘gave it a go’. Anglia Ruskin were offering a part-time Masters around Management so I signed up.
    All went well until I was about where you are now and my father-in-law died which meant I had to take Mrs C to the ‘festivities’ 300 miles away in the week I’d booked off to write-up!
    I did graduate, though.

    Best of luck!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    An excellent (albeit very long) article on how the lab-leak theory got traction and where it fell down:

    https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

    Warning - it is very long, but you can dip in and out readily.

    I liked this bit:

    "As Reid explained it, the dispatches were written in “party speak”—“a secret language of Chinese officialdom”—which he was able to decode but which even native speakers of Mandarin could not be expected to understand. Almost as soon as the article was published, however, a more obvious explanation emerged when a number of Chinese speakers read the dispatches for themselves. As it turned out, they were able to understand them just fine and it was Reid who had made a mess of the translation. The supposedly incriminating passage about a biosafety emergency was in fact just political boilerplate about the willingness and readiness of loyal Party officials to meet the challenges of running a BSL-4 lab."
    It this expose, the real reason why "Leon" decided to (yet again) flounce out of PB?

    Seeing as how he made a fucking Feast of Balthazar out of the Lab Leak theory.
    No idea. Not somethging I can comment on. But I was reminded [edit] by the article how many on PB went on and on about Naomi Wolf making a mistake over reading old court case records. That was a simple one off, the sort of thing many of us have done and still wake up and sweat in the night about. But the above, the Chinese secret language, really takes application by comparison.

    I'm still very struck by the case distribution around the wet market. We were talking about the power of simple analusis, dot maps and so on, lately on PB. And the very telling point that those who didn't work at the market biut got covid early lived markedly closer to the market [edit] than those who did. It's like the Shipman dot map (murdering an elderly person conv eniently on the way home) or the Broad Street cholera map.
    Edit: should have added that the Broad St cholera map showed two anomalies. One blank area - turned out to be a brewery whose employees drank from the brewery's own well (or the beer, I suspect). One outlier death - turned out to be an old lady who had lived in the area and had moved a little way away, nearer to another pump, but still sent her jmaid to get the water for tea cos she was used to it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    An excellent (albeit very long) article on how the lab-leak theory got traction and where it fell down:

    https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

    Warning - it is very long, but you can dip in and out readily.

    I liked this bit:

    "As Reid explained it, the dispatches were written in “party speak”—“a secret language of Chinese officialdom”—which he was able to decode but which even native speakers of Mandarin could not be expected to understand. Almost as soon as the article was published, however, a more obvious explanation emerged when a number of Chinese speakers read the dispatches for themselves. As it turned out, they were able to understand them just fine and it was Reid who had made a mess of the translation. The supposedly incriminating passage about a biosafety emergency was in fact just political boilerplate about the willingness and readiness of loyal Party officials to meet the challenges of running a BSL-4 lab."
    It this expose, the real reason why "Leon" decided to (yet again) flounce out of PB?

    Seeing as how he made a fucking Feast of Balthazar out of the Lab Leak theory.
    No idea. Not somethging I can comment on. But I was reminded how many on PB went on and on about Naomi Wolf making a mistake over reading old court case records. That was a simple one off, the sort of thing many of us have done and still wake up and sweat in the night about. But the above, the Chinese secret language, really takes application by comparison.

    I'm still very struck by the case distribution around the wet market. We were talking about the power of simple analusis, dot maps and so on, lately on PB. And the very telling point that those who didn't work at the market biut got covid early lived markedly closer to the market. It's like the Shipman dot map (murdering an elderly person conv eniently on the way home) or the Broad Street cholera map.
    If it was a flounce, shouldn't I have notirced?

    Have to admit that "flounce" makes me think of a person leaving in a huff waving a feather duster threateningly in a Bertie Wooster novel.
    One other point in that article. People making the classic mistake of confusing a cladogram of degree of relationships with an actual ancestor-descendant family tree. Absolutely basic student error. Understandable, likt eh Wolf slip - but it does show you aren't competent to comment, let alone conclude.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,633
    DougSeal said:

    At least Ipswich won.

    And Leicester. I am enjoying this season.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
    I think someone who views child abuse images is a threat. Those images are made - bluntly, those children are abused and images shared - because there are people like him who consume them.
    He’s also 78. You (and I) might think he deserves prison, but the reality is that the prisons are full & to put him behind bars means leaving someone else out to potentially re-offend.

    He’s on the sex offender’s register for the rest of his likely lifetime & will be living under fairly onerous parole obligations if my recollection of similar cases is correct. The courts have concluded that this is the best way public safety can be preserved given the resources available to them. They can also only apply the sentencing guidelines for the crimes he was actually charged with.

    (I’m a little surprised that “making” child pornography doesn’t carry a mandatory jail sentence personally; is “making” potentially less serious than it sounds?)
    It just means viewing via a communication medium I think - i.e making a copy. Just old fashioned language IIRC.
    Yes. Viewing a file on a website, saves a copy in the browser cache on your own computer. Same with downloading a zip file or folder from a newsgroup or website. This is what the offences refer.

    Actually producing the material will be a different offence, related to the sexual activity with the child.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,315
    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
    I think someone who views child abuse images is a threat. Those images are made - bluntly, those children are abused and images shared - because there are people like him who consume them.
    He’s also 78. You (and I) might think he deserves prison, but the reality is that the prisons are full & to put him behind bars means leaving someone else out to potentially re-offend.

    He’s on the sex offender’s register for the rest of his likely lifetime & will be living under fairly onerous parole obligations if my recollection of similar cases is correct. The courts have concluded that this is the best way public safety can be preserved given the resources available to them. They can also only apply the sentencing guidelines for the crimes he was actually charged with.

    (I’m a little surprised that “making” child pornography doesn’t carry a mandatory jail sentence personally; is “making” potentially less serious than it sounds?)
    It just means viewing via a communication medium I think - i.e making a copy. Just old fashioned language IIRC.
    Yes. Viewing a file on a website, saves a copy in the browser cache on your own computer. Same with downloading a zip file or folder from a newsgroup or website. This is what the offences refer.

    Actually producing the material will be a different offence, related to the sexual activity with the child.
    Ah, that would explain it. Thanks for the clarification.
  • Thanks to PB's motivation with 4 likes, I went out for a run
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    DougSeal said:

    DougSeal said:

    My dissertation is due in two weeks. I’m 4/5 of the way through it. None of it makes any sense anymore…

    Aaaargh!

    Eldest Granddaughter has finally finished hers, handed in and made the minor alterations felt necessary and been told everything is satisfactory.
    New job at around twice her current salary beckons!
    I'm doing this for "fun". In the middle of Lockdown 2 I decided that I would broaden my mind with all the spare time I had from not commuting and so started a 2 year part time MA at Birkbeck in Sept '21. Guest what two years after Sept '21 is... deadline 4 Sept.
    I did something similar in my late 50’s. I was working for the NHS and our Trust offered to pay a significant part of the costs of a further degree so I ‘gave it a go’. Anglia Ruskin were offering a part-time Masters around Management so I signed up.
    All went well until I was about where you are now and my father-in-law died which meant I had to take Mrs C to the ‘festivities’ 300 miles away in the week I’d booked off to write-up!
    I did graduate, though.

    Best of luck!
    I should do something like this instead of just mooching around.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    He's rich. He lives in the right area and knows the right people. Michael Gove admitted to cocaine use and was never even arrested. There are known photos of a famous politician with [redacted] and in the company of [redacted]. The list goes on and on.
    What does “lives in the right area” mean?
    He lived in Loughton, apparently.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,457
    edited August 2023
    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
    I think someone who views child abuse images is a threat. Those images are made - bluntly, those children are abused and images shared - because there are people like him who consume them.
    He’s also 78. You (and I) might think he deserves prison, but the reality is that the prisons are full & to put him behind bars means leaving someone else out to potentially re-offend.

    He’s on the sex offender’s register for the rest of his likely lifetime & will be living under fairly onerous parole obligations if my recollection of similar cases is correct. The courts have concluded that this is the best way public safety can be preserved given the resources available to them. They can also only apply the sentencing guidelines for the crimes he was actually charged with.

    (I’m a little surprised that “making” child pornography doesn’t carry a mandatory jail sentence personally; is “making” potentially less serious than it sounds?)
    It just means viewing via a communication medium I think - i.e making a copy. Just old fashioned language IIRC.
    Yes. I don't think you even have to deliberately save a copy to disk or other permanent storage for it to count; viewing it will cause a copy to exist in RAM, which is enough in the eyes of the law.

    (Or at least, that's how it's been explained to me in the past!)
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Foxy said:

    DougSeal said:

    At least Ipswich won.

    And Leicester. I am enjoying this season.
    Watford had a top two outcome in our game against Stoke. League 1 soon 😡
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    An excellent (albeit very long) article on how the lab-leak theory got traction and where it fell down:

    https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

    Warning - it is very long, but you can dip in and out readily.

    I liked this bit:

    "As Reid explained it, the dispatches were written in “party speak”—“a secret language of Chinese officialdom”—which he was able to decode but which even native speakers of Mandarin could not be expected to understand. Almost as soon as the article was published, however, a more obvious explanation emerged when a number of Chinese speakers read the dispatches for themselves. As it turned out, they were able to understand them just fine and it was Reid who had made a mess of the translation. The supposedly incriminating passage about a biosafety emergency was in fact just political boilerplate about the willingness and readiness of loyal Party officials to meet the challenges of running a BSL-4 lab."
    It this expose, the real reason why "Leon" decided to (yet again) flounce out of PB?

    Seeing as how he made a fucking Feast of Balthazar out of the Lab Leak theory.
    No idea. Not somethging I can comment on. But I was reminded [edit] by the article how many on PB went on and on about Naomi Wolf making a mistake over reading old court case records. That was a simple one off, the sort of thing many of us have done and still wake up and sweat in the night about. But the above, the Chinese secret language, really takes application by comparison.

    I'm still very struck by the case distribution around the wet market. We were talking about the power of simple analusis, dot maps and so on, lately on PB. And the very telling point that those who didn't work at the market biut got covid early lived markedly closer to the market [edit] than those who did. It's like the Shipman dot map (murdering an elderly person conv eniently on the way home) or the Broad Street cholera map.
    The other reason for extreme scepticism about the lab-leak theory - which again really didn't require much technical expertise to grasp - was that there were two variants present very early on, so in practice two lab leaks would have been required, not one.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    He's rich. He lives in the right area and knows the right people. Michael Gove admitted to cocaine use and was never even arrested. There are known photos of a famous politician with [redacted] and in the company of [redacted]. The list goes on and on.
    What does “lives in the right area” mean?
    He lived in Loughton, apparently.
    Good God! You're not even close! (No idea what it means)
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Quite a few of our Lords and Masters have done drugs. Even Keir 'Intresting' Starmer (probably, he hasn't denied it)

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/06/which-top-uk-politicians-have-admitted-to-drug-use
  • FF43 said:

    ..

    An excellent (albeit very long) article on how the lab-leak theory got traction and where it fell down:

    https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

    Warning - it is very long, but you can dip in and out readily.

    Excellent and very thorough review. It makes the important point that the Chinese government allowed the virus to happen by keeping wet markets open. Ironically, Lab Leakers give the Chinese government a pass by not pinning them down on the real scandal. COVID was an entirely avoidable pandemic. Unless the world collectively gets them to clean up their act on food safety another pandemic will happen again with the same cause.
    Perhaps worth pointing out, that attacking China rhetorically, while actually giving aid & comfort to Xi & Co, is strait out of the Trump MAGA-maniac playbook.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited August 2023
    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Presumably as no previous convictions however he got a suspended 10 month jail sentence, he was not given no sentence
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,373
    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Presumably as no previous convictions however he got a suspended 10 month jail sentence, he was not given no sentence
    In light of this morning's discussion on capital punishment, I wonder if 'suspended' should be changed to 'deferred' to avoid confusion?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    He's rich. He lives in the right area and knows the right people. Michael Gove admitted to cocaine use and was never even arrested. There are known photos of a famous politician with [redacted] and in the company of [redacted]. The list goes on and on.
    Why the heck would Gove be arrested?

    Saying "I took drugs 20 years ago" isn't something anyone should be arrested for.
    1. Statute of limitations
    2. The only word is his own
    3. How do we know any substance was actually cocaine, anyway
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    Excellent data from the House of Commons Library on how constituency boundaries will change, with maps comparing new constituencies to old ones. Thanks
  • Bold prediction.

    Neither England or Wales are going to win the rugby world cup this year.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625

    FF43 said:

    ..

    An excellent (albeit very long) article on how the lab-leak theory got traction and where it fell down:

    https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

    Warning - it is very long, but you can dip in and out readily.

    Excellent and very thorough review. It makes the important point that the Chinese government allowed the virus to happen by keeping wet markets open. Ironically, Lab Leakers give the Chinese government a pass by not pinning them down on the real scandal. COVID was an entirely avoidable pandemic. Unless the world collectively gets them to clean up their act on food safety another pandemic will happen again with the same cause.
    Perhaps worth pointing out, that attacking China rhetorically, while actually giving aid & comfort to Xi & Co, is strait out of the Trump MAGA-maniac playbook.
    See also the Obama “I’ll have more flexibility after the election” playbook, and the Merkel “we traded with the USSR during the Cold War and I can’t believe things are worse now” playbook.
  • Big Billy is going to miss the world cup.
  • rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    He's rich. He lives in the right area and knows the right people. Michael Gove admitted to cocaine use and was never even arrested. There are known photos of a famous politician with [redacted] and in the company of [redacted]. The list goes on and on.
    Why the heck would Gove be arrested?

    Saying "I took drugs 20 years ago" isn't something anyone should be arrested for.
    1. Statute of limitations
    2. The only word is his own
    3. How do we know any substance was actually cocaine, anyway
    Is there any such thing as the statute of limitations in the UK?

    There probably should be, but I thought that was American.
  • CatMan said:

    Quite a few of our Lords and Masters have done drugs. Even Keir 'Intresting' Starmer (probably, he hasn't denied it)

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/06/which-top-uk-politicians-have-admitted-to-drug-use

    In this 3rd decade of the 3rd millennium, any politico in any western democracy who proclaimed, "I never ever used drugs" would be automatically consigned in the minds of 95% of voters, to be in the same category as Bill Clinton re: "I never inhaled" statement in 1992.

    Interesting, it was fact that this admission/mitigation did NOT derail the Comeback Kid in 1992, which demonstrated that attacking political opponents on ground of former drug usage was generally speaking a waste of time.

    This was not long after collapse of Reagan's SCOTUS nomination of Douglas Ginsburg, after the later admitted to smoking marijuana in college AND as a professor. Which led to "Jar Wars" in late 1980s as candidates in tight races pledged to pee into a jar to prove their virtue, and challenged opponents to do the same.

    By 1992, voters from sea to shining sea had concluded that this was all a crock of . . .
  • rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    He's rich. He lives in the right area and knows the right people. Michael Gove admitted to cocaine use and was never even arrested. There are known photos of a famous politician with [redacted] and in the company of [redacted]. The list goes on and on.
    Why the heck would Gove be arrested?

    Saying "I took drugs 20 years ago" isn't something anyone should be arrested for.
    1. Statute of limitations
    2. The only word is his own
    3. How do we know any substance was actually cocaine, anyway
    Is there any such thing as the statute of limitations in the UK?

    There probably should be, but I thought that was American.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statute_of_limitations#:~:text=Unlike many countries, the United,the Magistrates' Courts Act 1980.

    United Kingdom

    Unlike many countries, the United Kingdom has no statute of limitations for criminal offences above summary offences (offences tried exclusively in the magistrates’ court). In these cases, criminal proceedings must be brought within six months according to the Magistrates' Courts Act 1980. To obtain a conviction in "some road traffic offences" (i.e., speeding) the driver must be notified, within 14 days of the offence, of the intention to prosecute them according to the Road Traffic Offenders Act 1988.

    For civil claims, the statute of limitations varies depending on the type of claim. For example, a claim (debt) from a simple contract can no longer be pursued after six years.
  • CatMan said:

    Quite a few of our Lords and Masters have done drugs. Even Keir 'Intresting' Starmer (probably, he hasn't denied it)

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/06/which-top-uk-politicians-have-admitted-to-drug-use

    In this 3rd decade of the 3rd millennium, any politico in any western democracy who proclaimed, "I never ever used drugs" would be automatically consigned in the minds of 95% of voters, to be in the same category as Bill Clinton re: "I never inhaled" statement in 1992.

    Interesting, it was fact that this admission/mitigation did NOT derail the Comeback Kid in 1992, which demonstrated that attacking political opponents on ground of former drug usage was generally speaking a waste of time.

    This was not long after collapse of Reagan's SCOTUS nomination of Douglas Ginsburg, after the later admitted to smoking marijuana in college AND as a professor. Which led to "Jar Wars" in late 1980s as candidates in tight races pledged to pee into a jar to prove their virtue, and challenged opponents to do the same.

    By 1992, voters from sea to shining sea had concluded that this was all a crock of . . .
    Any relation to Ruth Bader?
  • FF43 said:

    ..

    An excellent (albeit very long) article on how the lab-leak theory got traction and where it fell down:

    https://quillette.com/2023/08/19/the-lab-leak-illusion/

    Warning - it is very long, but you can dip in and out readily.

    Excellent and very thorough review. It makes the important point that the Chinese government allowed the virus to happen by keeping wet markets open. Ironically, Lab Leakers give the Chinese government a pass by not pinning them down on the real scandal. COVID was an entirely avoidable pandemic. Unless the world collectively gets them to clean up their act on food safety another pandemic will happen again with the same cause.
    Perhaps worth pointing out, that attacking China rhetorically, while actually giving aid & comfort to Xi & Co, is strait out of the Trump MAGA-maniac playbook.
    See also the Obama “I’ll have more flexibility after the election” playbook, and the Merkel “we traded with the USSR during the Cold War and I can’t believe things are worse now” playbook.
    See also the "hand UKR over to the tender mercies of Donald J. Trump" playbook.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Big Billy is going to miss the world cup.

    England look like a reserve team who are playing the firsts in training matches. I’ve never seen such a “nothing” England team. They aren’t a great forward team, they aren’t a great flowing attacking team. It’s absolutely sodding pointless. And we will be step-mommed by Argentina.
  • CatMan said:

    Quite a few of our Lords and Masters have done drugs. Even Keir 'Intresting' Starmer (probably, he hasn't denied it)

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/dec/06/which-top-uk-politicians-have-admitted-to-drug-use

    In this 3rd decade of the 3rd millennium, any politico in any western democracy who proclaimed, "I never ever used drugs" would be automatically consigned in the minds of 95% of voters, to be in the same category as Bill Clinton re: "I never inhaled" statement in 1992.

    Interesting, it was fact that this admission/mitigation did NOT derail the Comeback Kid in 1992, which demonstrated that attacking political opponents on ground of former drug usage was generally speaking a waste of time.

    This was not long after collapse of Reagan's SCOTUS nomination of Douglas Ginsburg, after the later admitted to smoking marijuana in college AND as a professor. Which led to "Jar Wars" in late 1980s as candidates in tight races pledged to pee into a jar to prove their virtue, and challenged opponents to do the same.

    By 1992, voters from sea to shining sea had concluded that this was all a crock of . . .
    Any relation to Ruth Bader?
    Apparently not.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,890
    edited August 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    He's rich. He lives in the right area and knows the right people. Michael Gove admitted to cocaine use and was never even arrested. There are known photos of a famous politician with [redacted] and in the company of [redacted]. The list goes on and on.
    Why the heck would Gove be arrested?

    Saying "I took drugs 20 years ago" isn't something anyone should be arrested for.
    1. Statute of limitations
    2. The only word is his own
    3. How do we know any substance was actually cocaine, anyway
    I hope you are not implying a politician might tell an untruth.
  • Big Billy is going to miss the world cup.

    Do the Palace and the Conservative Party employ similar packs of over-promoted, incompetent twits to do their strategic planning?

    NOT penciling in date of World Cup final, in case England's women made it (as indeed they have) is kind of own-goal Harold Wilson made sure NOT to commit in 1966.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Big Billy is going to miss the world cup.

    Do the Palace and the Conservative Party employ similar packs of over-promoted, incompetent twits to do their strategic planning?

    NOT penciling in date of World Cup final, in case England's women made it (as indeed they have) is kind of own-goal Harold Wilson made sure NOT to commit in 1966.
    Different sport, different Billy, SSI
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Phil said:

    Sandpit said:

    carnforth said:

    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Phil said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Because the jails are full & people who are not deemed an actual current threat are not going to be imprisoned when they would take up cell space that could be used to house someone else.

    Our jails are horrendously overcrowded. There’s great outcry whenever the public gets to hear apparently lenient sentences handed out, but very little willingness to fund the prison building program that would house more prisoners:

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn04334/
    I think someone who views child abuse images is a threat. Those images are made - bluntly, those children are abused and images shared - because there are people like him who consume them.
    He’s also 78. You (and I) might think he deserves prison, but the reality is that the prisons are full & to put him behind bars means leaving someone else out to potentially re-offend.

    He’s on the sex offender’s register for the rest of his likely lifetime & will be living under fairly onerous parole obligations if my recollection of similar cases is correct. The courts have concluded that this is the best way public safety can be preserved given the resources available to them. They can also only apply the sentencing guidelines for the crimes he was actually charged with.

    (I’m a little surprised that “making” child pornography doesn’t carry a mandatory jail sentence personally; is “making” potentially less serious than it sounds?)
    It just means viewing via a communication medium I think - i.e making a copy. Just old fashioned language IIRC.
    Yes. Viewing a file on a website, saves a copy in the browser cache on your own computer. Same with downloading a zip file or folder from a newsgroup or website. This is what the offences refer.

    Actually producing the material will be a different offence, related to the sexual activity with the child.
    Ah, that would explain it. Thanks for the clarification.
    No worries. Sadly I have to understand this stuff for work, thankfully I’ve never needed to use it. The thought of finding illegal material on the company’s server, is what keeps the IT director up at night.
  • rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    He's rich. He lives in the right area and knows the right people. Michael Gove admitted to cocaine use and was never even arrested. There are known photos of a famous politician with [redacted] and in the company of [redacted]. The list goes on and on.
    Why the heck would Gove be arrested?

    Saying "I took drugs 20 years ago" isn't something anyone should be arrested for.
    1. Statute of limitations
    2. The only word is his own
    3. How do we know any substance was actually cocaine, anyway
    Re: 3. given ethics & reliability of average illegal drug dealer (sadly NOT up to Big Pharma standards!) could be that what Gove was REALLY snorting was anything from crushed chalk to cat dewormer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited August 2023
    I don't think she quite intended the point made here.

    Kimberly Guilfoyle: "John Gotti never even had four indictments at once"
    https://twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1691483242497552392
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Cyclefree said:

    I am quick to criticise the police so I just want to say that the Cheshire police deserve praise for the Letby case. It was painstaking and doubtless harrowing and cannot have been easy in any sense at all, especially given the subject matter and the technical expertise needed.

    When the police get it right they deserve our thanks.

    @JohnLilburne made the point near the end of the last thread - why didn't the docs just ring uip the police? I'm not clear about this myself. Obviously, cutting their own throats with GDPR and all that; and the management had told them they were jkust bullying anyway. But is there some formal reason not to, ie does one have to bump it up the management trophic chain and then leave it at that?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyclefree said:

    carnforth said:

    New Statesman statement on conviction of former editor on illegal pornography charges:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/uncategorized/2023/08/peter-wilby-a-statement

    Also previously editor of the Independent on Sunday.

    Hundreds of child abuse images over many years.

    Why is he not in jail?
    Presumably as no previous convictions however he got a suspended 10 month jail sentence, he was not given no sentence
    In light of this morning's discussion on capital punishment, I wonder if 'suspended' should be changed to 'deferred' to avoid confusion?
    Ditto "hung parliaments" (OK I know it's "hanged" that Mr Pierrepoint made people but it's still jarring).
  • Bold prediction.

    Neither England or Wales are going to win the rugby world cup this year.

    Where did you learn English? Neither England NOR Wales!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am quick to criticise the police so I just want to say that the Cheshire police deserve praise for the Letby case. It was painstaking and doubtless harrowing and cannot have been easy in any sense at all, especially given the subject matter and the technical expertise needed.

    When the police get it right they deserve our thanks.

    @JohnLilburne made the point near the end of the last thread - why didn't the docs just ring uip the police? I'm not clear about this myself. Obviously, cutting their own throats with GDPR and all that; and the management had told them they were jkust bullying anyway. But is there some formal reason not to, ie does one have to bump it up the management trophic chain and then leave it at that?
    Presumably going direct to the police, bypassing management, would be a significant break from hospital policy, leading to potential dismissal. Hospital doctors are pretty hierarchical types: you respect the chain of command. I’d guess also you might expect the police to take the matter more seriously if it comes from the hospital than if it does not.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,792

    Big Billy is going to miss the world cup.

    Do the Palace and the Conservative Party employ similar packs of over-promoted, incompetent twits to do their strategic planning?

    NOT penciling in date of World Cup final, in case England's women made it (as indeed they have) is kind of own-goal Harold Wilson made sure NOT to commit in 1966.
    AIRI, Harold Wilson - probably the PM we've had whi was keenest on football up to that point - had to be reminded that the World Cup was on. Football wasn't that big a thing outside of its enthusiasts. Certainly not international football. At least, not until England made it to the quarter finals.
    Nine years before I was born, so I'm going off what Dominic Sandbrook says.
    FWIW, the last football match my Dad went to was, I think, Portugal against Hungary at Old Trafford in the 1966 World Cup. He was clearly interested enough to watch a match, but didn't even watch the final on telly, apart from a few minutes at the end in the window of a television shop in Keswick, where he was on holiday. I know we can't generalise from one man, but this doesn't strike me as an event which had the universal buy-in we might assume.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    A
    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am quick to criticise the police so I just want to say that the Cheshire police deserve praise for the Letby case. It was painstaking and doubtless harrowing and cannot have been easy in any sense at all, especially given the subject matter and the technical expertise needed.

    When the police get it right they deserve our thanks.

    @JohnLilburne made the point near the end of the last thread - why didn't the docs just ring uip the police? I'm not clear about this myself. Obviously, cutting their own throats with GDPR and all that; and the management had told them they were jkust bullying anyway. But is there some formal reason not to, ie does one have to bump it up the management trophic chain and then leave it at that?
    The bullying to get them to shut up seems to have been quite aggressive.

    Calling the police against the wishes of management who’ve threatened you with career ending shit requires some serious stones.
  • Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am quick to criticise the police so I just want to say that the Cheshire police deserve praise for the Letby case. It was painstaking and doubtless harrowing and cannot have been easy in any sense at all, especially given the subject matter and the technical expertise needed.

    When the police get it right they deserve our thanks.

    @JohnLilburne made the point near the end of the last thread - why didn't the docs just ring uip the police? I'm not clear about this myself. Obviously, cutting their own throats with GDPR and all that; and the management had told them they were jkust bullying anyway. But is there some formal reason not to, ie does one have to bump it up the management trophic chain and then leave it at that?
    Presumably going direct to the police, bypassing management, would be a significant break from hospital policy, leading to potential dismissal. Hospital doctors are pretty hierarchical types: you respect the chain of command. I’d guess also you might expect the police to take the matter more seriously if it comes from the hospital than if it does not.
    Facing dismissal for whistleblowing would be unfair dismissal would it not? It's protected.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,582
    Offtopic, here’s one for our resident trainspotters.

    What’s significant about this metro station?

  • Bold prediction.

    Neither England or Wales are going to win the rugby world cup this year.

    Where did you learn English? Neither England NOR Wales!
    The school of autocorrect.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Nigelb said:

    I don't think she quite intended the point made here.

    Kimberly Guilfoyle: "John Gotti never even had four indictments at once"
    https://twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1691483242497552392

    I do like the occasional suggestion that indictments prove that someone must be innocent, because they are being targeted by bad people. I'm not one to suggest a indictment by itself means someone is definitely guilty, but this 'the more charges the less it can be true' attitude is very interesting.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051

    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am quick to criticise the police so I just want to say that the Cheshire police deserve praise for the Letby case. It was painstaking and doubtless harrowing and cannot have been easy in any sense at all, especially given the subject matter and the technical expertise needed.

    When the police get it right they deserve our thanks.

    @JohnLilburne made the point near the end of the last thread - why didn't the docs just ring uip the police? I'm not clear about this myself. Obviously, cutting their own throats with GDPR and all that; and the management had told them they were jkust bullying anyway. But is there some formal reason not to, ie does one have to bump it up the management trophic chain and then leave it at that?
    Presumably going direct to the police, bypassing management, would be a significant break from hospital policy, leading to potential dismissal. Hospital doctors are pretty hierarchical types: you respect the chain of command. I’d guess also you might expect the police to take the matter more seriously if it comes from the hospital than if it does not.
    Facing dismissal for whistleblowing would be unfair dismissal would it not? It's protected.
    If you won the case, and it would be a personally costly experience to go through.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829

    A

    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am quick to criticise the police so I just want to say that the Cheshire police deserve praise for the Letby case. It was painstaking and doubtless harrowing and cannot have been easy in any sense at all, especially given the subject matter and the technical expertise needed.

    When the police get it right they deserve our thanks.

    @JohnLilburne made the point near the end of the last thread - why didn't the docs just ring uip the police? I'm not clear about this myself. Obviously, cutting their own throats with GDPR and all that; and the management had told them they were jkust bullying anyway. But is there some formal reason not to, ie does one have to bump it up the management trophic chain and then leave it at that?
    The bullying to get them to shut up seems to have been quite aggressive.

    Calling the police against the wishes of management who’ve threatened you with career ending shit requires some serious stones.
    Or being about to retire anyway.
  • Bold prediction.

    Neither England or Wales are going to win the rugby world cup this year.

    How about Romania, TSE?

    Go on, stick your neck out.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic, here’s one for our resident trainspotters.

    What’s significant about this metro station?

    Woolwich Arsenal connexion.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,051
    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic, here’s one for our resident trainspotters.

    What’s significant about this metro station?

    Deepest in Europe.
  • Bold prediction.

    Neither England or Wales are going to win the rugby world cup this year.

    How about Romania, TSE?

    Go on, stick your neck out.
    They have a better chance than England or Wales.
  • Cookie said:

    Big Billy is going to miss the world cup.

    Do the Palace and the Conservative Party employ similar packs of over-promoted, incompetent twits to do their strategic planning?

    NOT penciling in date of World Cup final, in case England's women made it (as indeed they have) is kind of own-goal Harold Wilson made sure NOT to commit in 1966.
    AIRI, Harold Wilson - probably the PM we've had whi was keenest on football up to that point - had to be reminded that the World Cup was on. Football wasn't that big a thing outside of its enthusiasts. Certainly not international football. At least, not until England made it to the quarter finals.
    Nine years before I was born, so I'm going off what Dominic Sandbrook says.
    FWIW, the last football match my Dad went to was, I think, Portugal against Hungary at Old Trafford in the 1966 World Cup. He was clearly interested enough to watch a match, but didn't even watch the final on telly, apart from a few minutes at the end in the window of a television shop in Keswick, where he was on holiday. I know we can't generalise from one man, but this doesn't strike me as an event which had the universal buy-in we might assume.
    From what I've read, Harold Wilson WAS a football fan, though whether more or less so than your uncle, can't say.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    A

    Carnyx said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I am quick to criticise the police so I just want to say that the Cheshire police deserve praise for the Letby case. It was painstaking and doubtless harrowing and cannot have been easy in any sense at all, especially given the subject matter and the technical expertise needed.

    When the police get it right they deserve our thanks.

    @JohnLilburne made the point near the end of the last thread - why didn't the docs just ring uip the police? I'm not clear about this myself. Obviously, cutting their own throats with GDPR and all that; and the management had told them they were jkust bullying anyway. But is there some formal reason not to, ie does one have to bump it up the management trophic chain and then leave it at that?
    The bullying to get them to shut up seems to have been quite aggressive.

    Calling the police against the wishes of management who’ve threatened you with career ending shit requires some serious stones.
    Isn’t this what Crimestoppers is for? A doctor could contact them and send enough info for them to consider and pass on to police without identifying themself.
This discussion has been closed.