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Mid Beds: the by-election where there’s no current vacancy – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,047
edited July 2023 in General
imageMid Beds: the by-election where there’s no current vacancy – politicalbetting.com

Because I’m almost a local – I live about a mile and a half from the constituency – I’m getting a fair number of questions asking for my thoughts on the possible by-election in Mid-Beds. This is, of course, the seat where Nadine Dorries has been MP since GE2010 and the person who announced on June 9th that she was quitting as an MP with “immediate effect”.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,380
    edited July 2023
    1st?

    Nadine will either hang on for the money or time it to inflict maximum damage, I guess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,999
    Until she gets a satisfactory explanation why she was removed hard to see Dorries stepping down anytime soon
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,327
    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,999
    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,465
    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    An honest assessment as usual, thank you. I'd think her endorsement of both Truss and Trump will be a handicap, even though neither is really relevant to whether she'd make a good Mayor.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,676
    I didn't realise that Nadine was releasing her book before Sunak's big day. I suppose a slow hand-clap a la Blair at the WI is too much to hope for?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    I appreciate it's a long time ago, but didn't Mad Nad say she was resigning "with immediate effect" after it became clear she wasn't on the honours list?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,999
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    An honest assessment as usual, thank you. I'd think her endorsement of both Truss and Trump will be a handicap, even though neither is really relevant to whether she'd make a good Mayor.
    Her support for Trump won’t be a major problem for her in Havering, Dagenham and Bexley but probably would be beyond that. Remember Trump actually won Staten Island in the outer New York suburbs in 2016 and 2020 while being trounced in the rest of New York city
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,380
    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    An honest assessment as usual, thank you. I'd think her endorsement of both Truss and Trump will be a handicap, even though neither is really relevant to whether she'd make a good Mayor.
    Has she opined on Truman, the Trudeaus, the Trujillos or Trueba? Wondering whether she has a thing for tru believers... :wink:
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,378
    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    I'd try raising it with your MP if all else fails. Also, tell you wife to keep a simple diary of her attempts to get through. I suspect eventually you'll be allowed to make the additional contributions after the 31 July deadline using the current rates if you can show you tried and were prevented from doing so.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,059
    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,378
    HYUFD said:

    Until she gets a satisfactory explanation why she was removed hard to see Dorries stepping down anytime soon


    Labour should include in their manifesto, extending the ability to recall an MP who does not attend the HoC and/or undertake constituency duties.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,084
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I appreciate it's a long time ago, but didn't Mad Nad say she was resigning "with immediate effect" after it became clear she wasn't on the honours list?

    Aiui Nadine Dorries learned she had been de-peered because she had not agreed to resign, so she resigned immediately, under the impression that would fix things. Then she was told the peerage ship had sailed so she did not go through with resigning.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    An honest assessment as usual, thank you. I'd think her endorsement of both Truss and Trump will be a handicap, even though neither is really relevant to whether she'd make a good Mayor.
    Her support for Trump won’t be a major problem for her in Havering, Dagenham and Bexley but probably would be beyond that. Remember Trump actually won Staten Island in the outer New York suburbs in 2016 and 2020 while being trounced in the rest of New York city
    Tangential note but Trump won great swathes of many Blue states, as did Biden in Red states. Our reductive view of presidential politics, at least in how we map it out and make sweeping generalisations around conservatism and liberalism, can be quite unhelpful.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,084
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Until she gets a satisfactory explanation why she was removed hard to see Dorries stepping down anytime soon


    Labour should include in their manifesto, extending the ability to recall an MP who does not attend the HoC and/or undertake constituency duties.
    Hard cases make bad law.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I appreciate it's a long time ago, but didn't Mad Nad say she was resigning "with immediate effect" after it became clear she wasn't on the honours list?

    Aiui Nadine Dorries learned she had been de-peered because she had not agreed to resign, so she resigned immediately, under the impression that would fix things. Then she was told the peerage ship had sailed so she did not go through with resigning.
    Henceforth known as the Mid-Beds Hokey Cokey.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,541
    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    An honest assessment as usual, thank you. I'd think her endorsement of both Truss and Trump will be a handicap, even though neither is really relevant to whether she'd make a good Mayor.
    Her support for Trump won’t be a major problem for her in Havering, Dagenham and Bexley but probably would be beyond that. Remember Trump actually won Staten Island in the outer New York suburbs in 2016 and 2020 while being trounced in the rest of New York city
    That's the problem for London Conservatives. The places where they retain strength are so unlike the rest of London, to the extent of arguing against their Londonness, that a candidate who is attractive to London Conservatives is likely to repel the rest of the city. And the weaker the party gets, the stronger that dynamic becomes, so there's the risk of a forceful feedback loop.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,084
    Ghedebrav said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I appreciate it's a long time ago, but didn't Mad Nad say she was resigning "with immediate effect" after it became clear she wasn't on the honours list?

    Aiui Nadine Dorries learned she had been de-peered because she had not agreed to resign, so she resigned immediately, under the impression that would fix things. Then she was told the peerage ship had sailed so she did not go through with resigning.
    Henceforth known as the Mid-Beds Hokey Cokey.
    At a human level, one can feel sorry for Nadine Dorries who has unwittingly joined the least exclusive club in London: shafted by Boris Johnson.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,092
    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    An honest assessment as usual, thank you. I'd think her endorsement of both Truss and Trump will be a handicap, even though neither is really relevant to whether she'd make a good Mayor.
    Her support for Trump won’t be a major problem for her in Havering, Dagenham and Bexley but probably would be beyond that. Remember Trump actually won Staten Island in the outer New York suburbs in 2016 and 2020 while being trounced in the rest of New York city
    Remember Trump actually lost the national vote across the USA in both 2016 AND 2020.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,327
    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    I'd try raising it with your MP if all else fails. Also, tell you wife to keep a simple diary of her attempts to get through. I suspect eventually you'll be allowed to make the additional contributions after the 31 July deadline using the current rates if you can show you tried and were prevented from doing so.
    Thanks for the suggestion, particularly the diary point, but it has got to a pretty pass when some defect on a public facing website needs to be raised with an MP because there is no other way of getting past the blockage. What sort of an idiot designs these things?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,999
    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 120,999
    Ghedebrav said:

    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    An honest assessment as usual, thank you. I'd think her endorsement of both Truss and Trump will be a handicap, even though neither is really relevant to whether she'd make a good Mayor.
    Her support for Trump won’t be a major problem for her in Havering, Dagenham and Bexley but probably would be beyond that. Remember Trump actually won Staten Island in the outer New York suburbs in 2016 and 2020 while being trounced in the rest of New York city
    Tangential note but Trump won great swathes of many Blue states, as did Biden in Red states. Our reductive view of presidential politics, at least in how we map it out and make sweeping generalisations around conservatism and liberalism, can be quite unhelpful.
    The divide in the US as here and most of the west is increasingly urban v rural rather than regional with suburbs and smaller commuter towns in between and the swing areas
  • Clutch_BromptonClutch_Brompton Posts: 699
    That is far from a certain gain for Lab if she does resign.

    Might just be better if a prominent Con is shown not only to have utter contempt for the British people but to be enabled in this by her party's leadership not depriving her of the whip. Apparently a week or two in Oz gets you suspended but lollygagging around for a year is no problem at all.

    So we have Cons ripping off the taxpayer and Mr Sunak looking weak and out of his depth.

    Tell me again why it is in Lab's interest for Dorries to resign. They already (almost certainly) have Rutherglen and Tamworth in line in so far as by-elections. They are both more likely to keep the winning narrative going
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,327
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I appreciate it's a long time ago, but didn't Mad Nad say she was resigning "with immediate effect" after it became clear she wasn't on the honours list?

    Aiui Nadine Dorries learned she had been de-peered because she had not agreed to resign, so she resigned immediately, under the impression that would fix things. Then she was told the peerage ship had sailed so she did not go through with resigning.
    Henceforth known as the Mid-Beds Hokey Cokey.
    At a human level, one can feel sorry for Nadine Dorries who has unwittingly joined the least exclusive club in London: shafted by Boris Johnson.
    One hesitates to ever be fair to Boris Johnson (after all he would never return the favour) but I think he probably did all he could for mad Nad. She is collateral damage in some parties determination to deny him whatever he asks for.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    I'd try raising it with your MP if all else fails. Also, tell you wife to keep a simple diary of her attempts to get through. I suspect eventually you'll be allowed to make the additional contributions after the 31 July deadline using the current rates if you can show you tried and were prevented from doing so.
    Thanks for the suggestion, particularly the diary point, but it has got to a pretty pass when some defect on a public facing website needs to be raised with an MP because there is no other way of getting past the blockage. What sort of an idiot designs these things?
    Design? as opposed to Creeping Featuristis?

    That and a lack of testing at all levels including Production Testing*

    *Yes, this is a thing. Think Secret Shopper - an automated setup which logs into the actual site and tries to do things with various test user accounts. This provides a minute by minute check that your functionality is all working in prod.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,053
    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    @DavidL

    I swear to goodness I do not know how to do it properly, but I'll tell you how I am going to do it: I know it may be wrong, but f**k it I'm too old to plow thru websites and telephone answering machine, I'll just swear at them or start crying.

    This reply is a two-parter in the wrong order: Part 1 is how to find out how much it is, Part 2 is how to pay it. This is Part 2

    Part 2: how to pay it


    2.1 Voluntary National Insurance:
    https://www.gov.uk/voluntary-national-insurance-contributions/deadlines
    This page tells you how to make voluntary NI contributions. It details two types, thus
    • Pay voluntary Class 2 National Insurance
    • Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance
    I clicked on "Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance" because I'm permie.


    2.2 Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance
    https://www.gov.uk/pay-voluntary-class-3-national-insurance
    This page tells you how to make voluntary NI contributions. It details five methods, thus:
    • Direct Debit
    • Approve a payment through your online bank account
    • Make an online or telephone bank transfer
    • At your bank or building society
    • By cheque through the post
    I clicked on "By cheque through the post" because I hate tech.


    2.3 Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance by cheque thru the post
    https://www.gov.uk/pay-voluntary-class-3-national-insurance/by-post
    You can pay by sending a cheque to:

    HM Revenue and Customs
    National Insurance Contributions and Employer Office
    BX9 1AN

    Points to note
    • Make your cheque payable to ‘HM Revenue and Customs only’.
    • Write your Class 3 National Insurance reference number on the back of the cheque (or your NINO?)
    • Include a note with your name, address and phone number, Class 3 National Insurance contributions reference number (or National Insurance number), how much you’re paying and the period you’re paying for
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,541
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I appreciate it's a long time ago, but didn't Mad Nad say she was resigning "with immediate effect" after it became clear she wasn't on the honours list?

    Aiui Nadine Dorries learned she had been de-peered because she had not agreed to resign, so she resigned immediately, under the impression that would fix things. Then she was told the peerage ship had sailed so she did not go through with resigning.
    There was an MP known as Nad
    Who trusted the word of a cad.
    But the Blob was determined
    She shoudn't get ermine,
    And since then she has been seething mad.
    "She shouldn't be ermined" for the fouth line?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Stuartinromford said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I appreciate it's a long time ago, but didn't Mad Nad say she was resigning "with immediate effect" after it became clear she wasn't on the honours list?

    Aiui Nadine Dorries learned she had been de-peered because she had not agreed to resign, so she resigned immediately, under the impression that would fix things. Then she was told the peerage ship had sailed so she did not go through with resigning.
    There was an MP known as Nad
    Who trusted the word of a cad.
    But the Blob was determined
    She shoudn't get ermine,
    And since then she has been seething mad.
    "She shouldn't be ermined" for the fouth line?
    Yes, even better!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,380
    edited July 2023
    Ghedebrav said:

    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    An honest assessment as usual, thank you. I'd think her endorsement of both Truss and Trump will be a handicap, even though neither is really relevant to whether she'd make a good Mayor.
    Her support for Trump won’t be a major problem for her in Havering, Dagenham and Bexley but probably would be beyond that. Remember Trump actually won Staten Island in the outer New York suburbs in 2016 and 2020 while being trounced in the rest of New York city
    Tangential note but Trump won great swathes of many Blue states, as did Biden in Red states. Our reductive view of presidential politics, at least in how we map it out and make sweeping generalisations around conservatism and liberalism, can be quite unhelpful.
    True in many cases,* of course.

    Take Selby & Ainsty. Red town, surrounded by blue countryside (itself an oversimplification, but general picture - there are other reddish bits of other population centres). True of many small rural town constituencies, probably. York makes this obvious with it's unique inner and outer setup, where the red centre (York central) is surrounded by a ring of blue (York outer).

    *ETA: not unique to presidential politics. We often talk of constituencies in a particular way, without appreciating that there are quite different areas therein.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Selebian said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    An honest assessment as usual, thank you. I'd think her endorsement of both Truss and Trump will be a handicap, even though neither is really relevant to whether she'd make a good Mayor.
    Her support for Trump won’t be a major problem for her in Havering, Dagenham and Bexley but probably would be beyond that. Remember Trump actually won Staten Island in the outer New York suburbs in 2016 and 2020 while being trounced in the rest of New York city
    Tangential note but Trump won great swathes of many Blue states, as did Biden in Red states. Our reductive view of presidential politics, at least in how we map it out and make sweeping generalisations around conservatism and liberalism, can be quite unhelpful.
    True in many cases, of course.

    Take Selby & Ainsty. Red town, surrounded by blue countryside (itself an oversimplification, but general picture - there are other reddish bits of other population centres). True of many small rural town constituencies, probably. York makes this obvious with it's unique inner and outer setup, where the red centre (York central) is surrounded by a ring of blue (York outer).
    A lot of what is now in York Outer, indeed some of York Inner IIRC, used to be in the old Selby constituency, which I think used to include the University of York.
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,059
    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    Agreed. What's your own view on that?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,454
    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    I'd try raising it with your MP if all else fails. Also, tell you wife to keep a simple diary of her attempts to get through. I suspect eventually you'll be allowed to make the additional contributions after the 31 July deadline using the current rates if you can show you tried and were prevented from doing so.
    Thanks for the suggestion, particularly the diary point, but it has got to a pretty pass when some defect on a public facing website needs to be raised with an MP because there is no other way of getting past the blockage. What sort of an idiot designs these things?
    We had (probably) the same problem with Mrs C. Comments on previous thread, before I realised there was a new one!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,380
    edited July 2023
    DougSeal said:

    Selebian said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    HYUFD said:

    NickPalmer said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    An honest assessment as usual, thank you. I'd think her endorsement of both Truss and Trump will be a handicap, even though neither is really relevant to whether she'd make a good Mayor.
    Her support for Trump won’t be a major problem for her in Havering, Dagenham and Bexley but probably would be beyond that. Remember Trump actually won Staten Island in the outer New York suburbs in 2016 and 2020 while being trounced in the rest of New York city
    Tangential note but Trump won great swathes of many Blue states, as did Biden in Red states. Our reductive view of presidential politics, at least in how we map it out and make sweeping generalisations around conservatism and liberalism, can be quite unhelpful.
    True in many cases, of course.

    Take Selby & Ainsty. Red town, surrounded by blue countryside (itself an oversimplification, but general picture - there are other reddish bits of other population centres). True of many small rural town constituencies, probably. York makes this obvious with it's unique inner and outer setup, where the red centre (York central) is surrounded by a ring of blue (York outer).
    A lot of what is now in York Outer, indeed some of York Inner IIRC, used to be in the old Selby constituency, which I think used to include the University of York.
    Yes, indeed.

    UoY being one of the relatively few universities located within a Con constituency? Although most students probably live in York inner.

    ETA: A few others in this list, as of 2019 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/28/campus-constituencies-where-do-student-voters-wield-the-most-power
    Surprised Southampton Uni was in Itchen, though it would be in Test.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,454
    edited July 2023
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I appreciate it's a long time ago, but didn't Mad Nad say she was resigning "with immediate effect" after it became clear she wasn't on the honours list?

    She just said she was, but she didn't shove the bumf in?

    She'd be complaining if someone took her at her word and resigned her for her. And [edit] they haven't proceeded to make her Steward of somewhere silly, so presumably she didn't do the bloody paperwork.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,084
    The Polling Station podcast from Star Sports covers the by-elections and features Shadsy, formerly of PB, Ladbrokes and SMarkets.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gW2zidjmLM
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,454
    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jul/19/were-not-all-broken-the-woman-who-pursued-her-rapist-for-five-years-and-won

    Met covering itself in more glory: leaving it to victims to DIY.

    'Five months after her rape, Sam reported it to the police. “I was younger. I had this idea: I’ll go to the police, they’ll do something straight away and he’ll just go to prison.” Sam deals in laconic understatement and disarming straightforwardness. “I think I was just quite naive.”

    It didn’t feel possible to be disappointed in the Metropolitan police. Not after [recent cases]. It didn’t feel possible because expectations were already so low.

    Yet the way Sam was treated, the lengths to which she had to go to bring her rapist to justice, are staggering.'
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,541
    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    Agreed. What's your own view on that?
    I reckon there are three lanes. Red meat (Badenoch, Braverman...), Steady as she sinks (Barclay, Shapps, Cleverley?), Make some peace with the electorate (Mordaunt, some token wet but God knows who). Two of those make it through to the party membership, who will probably go for the most right wing option they are offered.

    So, unless the hard right are decisively routed, they can get someone onto the final ballot. Personally, I suspect they will have enough MPs to get one of their own through to the membership.

    Hold on to your hats, folks...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,084
    edited July 2023
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    The Polling Station podcast from Star Sports covers the by-elections and features Shadsy, formerly of PB, Ladbrokes and SMarkets.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8gW2zidjmLM

    Some support for @HYUFD's position re Uxbridge.

    ETA Shadsy says Lozza Fox to beat Binface in a match bet.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,042
    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    I'd try raising it with your MP if all else fails. Also, tell you wife to keep a simple diary of her attempts to get through. I suspect eventually you'll be allowed to make the additional contributions after the 31 July deadline using the current rates if you can show you tried and were prevented from doing so.
    Thanks for the suggestion, particularly the diary point, but it has got to a pretty pass when some defect on a public facing website needs to be raised with an MP because there is no other way of getting past the blockage. What sort of an idiot designs these things?
    We had (probably) the same problem with Mrs C. Comments on previous thread, before I realised there was a new one!
    Not sure if this has already been mentioned but the NI deadline has been extended to April 2025

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/deadline-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions-extended-to-april-2025
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,454
    kamski said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    I'd try raising it with your MP if all else fails. Also, tell you wife to keep a simple diary of her attempts to get through. I suspect eventually you'll be allowed to make the additional contributions after the 31 July deadline using the current rates if you can show you tried and were prevented from doing so.
    Thanks for the suggestion, particularly the diary point, but it has got to a pretty pass when some defect on a public facing website needs to be raised with an MP because there is no other way of getting past the blockage. What sort of an idiot designs these things?
    We had (probably) the same problem with Mrs C. Comments on previous thread, before I realised there was a new one!
    Not sure if this has already been mentioned but the NI deadline has been extended to April 2025

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/deadline-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions-extended-to-april-2025
    Excellent. We don't need it, but this is such a relief for many people.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    Two excellent uses of the review from England today. Four down.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    "The deadline for making voluntary National Insurance contributions for eligible taxpayers with National Insurance gaps between April 2006 to April 2018 has been extended to 5 April 2025.

    Because of the demand on the service, payments may take more than the expected 8 weeks to show on your records."

    https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/nirecord

    I THINK this is an extension of the extension which previously expired 31/7/23 but ffs don't take that as gospel. If it is the rational move is to shelve the issue till then to see whether one dies in the interim.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,676
    Stuartinromford said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    Agreed. What's your own view on that?
    I reckon there are three lanes. Red meat (Badenoch, Braverman...), Steady as she sinks (Barclay, Shapps, Cleverley?), Make some peace with the electorate (Mordaunt, some token wet but God knows who). Two of those make it through to the party membership, who will probably go for the most right wing option they are offered.

    So, unless the hard right are decisively routed, they can get someone onto the final ballot. Personally, I suspect they will have enough MPs to get one of their own through to the membership.

    Hold on to your hats, folks...
    What exactly does your fear of this 'hard right' comprise? Do you think we'll see soaring bond yields, runaway inflation, a flatlining economy? We're already there. Your much vaunted 'adults' are 'back in the room' and doing precisely jack shit to contribute to our economical recovery, or anything else positive quite frankly.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,084
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/jul/19/were-not-all-broken-the-woman-who-pursued-her-rapist-for-five-years-and-won

    Met covering itself in more glory: leaving it to victims to DIY.

    'Five months after her rape, Sam reported it to the police. “I was younger. I had this idea: I’ll go to the police, they’ll do something straight away and he’ll just go to prison.” Sam deals in laconic understatement and disarming straightforwardness. “I think I was just quite naive.”

    It didn’t feel possible to be disappointed in the Metropolitan police. Not after [recent cases]. It didn’t feel possible because expectations were already so low.

    Yet the way Sam was treated, the lengths to which she had to go to bring her rapist to justice, are staggering.'

    There is an ITV documentary about this case, that can be seen on:
    https://www.itv.com/watch/catching-my-rapist-exposure/10a4035
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    kamski said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    I'd try raising it with your MP if all else fails. Also, tell you wife to keep a simple diary of her attempts to get through. I suspect eventually you'll be allowed to make the additional contributions after the 31 July deadline using the current rates if you can show you tried and were prevented from doing so.
    Thanks for the suggestion, particularly the diary point, but it has got to a pretty pass when some defect on a public facing website needs to be raised with an MP because there is no other way of getting past the blockage. What sort of an idiot designs these things?
    We had (probably) the same problem with Mrs C. Comments on previous thread, before I realised there was a new one!
    Not sure if this has already been mentioned but the NI deadline has been extended to April 2025

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/deadline-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions-extended-to-april-2025
    That’s good news. Maybe by 2025, the government might have a website that works properly. If they really work hard on it, they might even have a website that takes payments.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    Sixteen to go.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,527
    Have we done Seaham Conservative Club being fined for 'death match' wrestling yet?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-66222964
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,866
    Pulpstar said:

    Sixteen to go.

    Months to the General Election?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,528
    Pulpstar said:

    Sixteen to go.

    Tons, and whadaya get, one day older and deeper in debt
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    DougSeal said:

    Have we done Seaham Conservative Club being fined for 'death match' wrestling yet?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-66222964

    Bloody hell, quite literally.

    Loving that one of the charges was doing this stuff *without a licence."
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,866
    DougSeal said:

    Have we done Seaham Conservative Club being fined for 'death match' wrestling yet?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-66222964

    Disappointing. I was hoping it was going to be Priti v The Truss.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,454
    Sandpit said:

    kamski said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    I'd try raising it with your MP if all else fails. Also, tell you wife to keep a simple diary of her attempts to get through. I suspect eventually you'll be allowed to make the additional contributions after the 31 July deadline using the current rates if you can show you tried and were prevented from doing so.
    Thanks for the suggestion, particularly the diary point, but it has got to a pretty pass when some defect on a public facing website needs to be raised with an MP because there is no other way of getting past the blockage. What sort of an idiot designs these things?
    We had (probably) the same problem with Mrs C. Comments on previous thread, before I realised there was a new one!
    Not sure if this has already been mentioned but the NI deadline has been extended to April 2025

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/deadline-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions-extended-to-april-2025
    That’s good news. Maybe by 2025, the government might have a website that works properly. If they really work hard on it, they might even have a website that takes payments.
    The payments works, if you know what number to cite ...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,541
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    Agreed. What's your own view on that?
    I reckon there are three lanes. Red meat (Badenoch, Braverman...), Steady as she sinks (Barclay, Shapps, Cleverley?), Make some peace with the electorate (Mordaunt, some token wet but God knows who). Two of those make it through to the party membership, who will probably go for the most right wing option they are offered.

    So, unless the hard right are decisively routed, they can get someone onto the final ballot. Personally, I suspect they will have enough MPs to get one of their own through to the membership.

    Hold on to your hats, folks...
    What exactly does your fear of this 'hard right' comprise? Do you think we'll see soaring bond yields, runaway inflation, a flatlining economy? We're already there. Your much vaunted 'adults' are 'back in the room' and doing precisely jack shit to contribute to our economical recovery, or anything else positive quite frankly.
    Because they will lose with the public. Same as IDS did. Same as Susan Hall will.

    Which means that no Conservatives will be doing anything for anyone.

    The "the public are hungry for radical change so down with reformism" is the sort of thing that Conservatives rightly point and laugh at lefties for.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,676
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    Agreed. What's your own view on that?
    I reckon there are three lanes. Red meat (Badenoch, Braverman...), Steady as she sinks (Barclay, Shapps, Cleverley?), Make some peace with the electorate (Mordaunt, some token wet but God knows who). Two of those make it through to the party membership, who will probably go for the most right wing option they are offered.

    So, unless the hard right are decisively routed, they can get someone onto the final ballot. Personally, I suspect they will have enough MPs to get one of their own through to the membership.

    Hold on to your hats, folks...
    What exactly does your fear of this 'hard right' comprise? Do you think we'll see soaring bond yields, runaway inflation, a flatlining economy? We're already there. Your much vaunted 'adults' are 'back in the room' and doing precisely jack shit to contribute to our economical recovery, or anything else positive quite frankly.
    I'm sorry, I should have said precisely nothing, there was no need for coarse language.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    England bowling at a snail's pace. Australia won't mind one bit.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,568
    I said very early on that she isn't going to resign without her bauble, and as she isn't going to get her bauble, I doubt she will resign
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,440
    IanB2 said:

    I said very early on that she isn't going to resign without her bauble, and as she isn't going to get her bauble, I doubt she will resign

    Stand down at next election is my guess. Perhaps she's keeping on top of her constituency work though.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Benpointer said:

    HYUFD said:

    Until she gets a satisfactory explanation why she was removed hard to see Dorries stepping down anytime soon


    Labour should include in their manifesto, extending the ability to recall an MP who does not attend the HoC and/or undertake constituency duties.
    I can't really see it being a vote winner, but it would be sensible to change the byzantine rules around resignation and recall, as well as outlining minimum standards of attendance (both parliament and constituency surgery).

    TBH I'd go further and be more stringent on lobbying, second jobs, directorships and so on, but hey.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,053
    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    @DavidL

    I swear to goodness I do not know how to do it properly, but I'll tell you how I am going to do it: I know it may be wrong, but f**k it I'm too old to plow thru websites and telephone answering machine, I'll just swear at them or start crying.

    This reply is a two-parter in the wrong order: Part 1 is how to find out how much it is, Part 2 is how to pay it. This is Part 2

    Part 2: how to pay it


    2.1 Voluntary National Insurance:
    https://www.gov.uk/voluntary-national-insurance-contributions/deadlines
    This page tells you how to make voluntary NI contributions. It details two types, thus
    • Pay voluntary Class 2 National Insurance
    • Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance
    I clicked on "Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance" because I'm permie.


    2.2 Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance
    https://www.gov.uk/pay-voluntary-class-3-national-insurance
    This page tells you how to make voluntary NI contributions. It details five methods, thus:
    • Direct Debit
    • Approve a payment through your online bank account
    • Make an online or telephone bank transfer
    • At your bank or building society
    • By cheque through the post
    I clicked on "By cheque through the post" because I hate tech.


    2.3 Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance by cheque thru the post
    https://www.gov.uk/pay-voluntary-class-3-national-insurance/by-post
    You can pay by sending a cheque to:

    HM Revenue and Customs
    National Insurance Contributions and Employer Office
    BX9 1AN

    Points to note
    • Make your cheque payable to ‘HM Revenue and Customs only’.
    • Write your Class 3 National Insurance reference number on the back of the cheque (or your NINO?)
    • Include a note with your name, address and phone number, Class 3 National Insurance contributions reference number (or National Insurance number), how much you’re paying and the period you’re paying for
    Part 1: how to find out how much it is

    1.1 Get a Government Gateway ID
    Firstly you need to get a Government Gateway ID. I assume you haven't got one so you need to get one. I assume it involves this website https://www.access.service.gov.uk/login/signin/creds and press "Create sign-in details" which will take you to here: https://www.access.service.gov.uk/login/create-account. This bit is difficult.

    When (?!) you have done that go here https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account

    1.2 Check your state pension
    https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account

    When you go here it will ask you for your Government Gateway ID and password, and since it's two-factor identification it will send you via phone/email for an additional code to complete the sign in

    When you have done that, it will give you Your State Pension summary. I am a poors so mine is tiny, but presumably yours will be bigger. Oooh-er. Print it out. You will see a link that says "View your National Insurance record". Click on that and it will takr you to this page https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/nirecord

    1.3 Check your NI record
    https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/nirecord

    This page gives your NI record in full. Expand the entries to find out your gaps. That is the amount you have to pay.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 27,676
    Stuartinromford said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    Agreed. What's your own view on that?
    I reckon there are three lanes. Red meat (Badenoch, Braverman...), Steady as she sinks (Barclay, Shapps, Cleverley?), Make some peace with the electorate (Mordaunt, some token wet but God knows who). Two of those make it through to the party membership, who will probably go for the most right wing option they are offered.

    So, unless the hard right are decisively routed, they can get someone onto the final ballot. Personally, I suspect they will have enough MPs to get one of their own through to the membership.

    Hold on to your hats, folks...
    What exactly does your fear of this 'hard right' comprise? Do you think we'll see soaring bond yields, runaway inflation, a flatlining economy? We're already there. Your much vaunted 'adults' are 'back in the room' and doing precisely jack shit to contribute to our economical recovery, or anything else positive quite frankly.
    Because they will lose with the public. Same as IDS did. Same as Susan Hall will.

    Which means that no Conservatives will be doing anything for anyone.

    The "the public are hungry for radical change so down with reformism" is the sort of thing that Conservatives rightly point and laugh at lefties for.
    The same as what's happening all over Europe except not?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,053
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    @DavidL

    I swear to goodness I do not know how to do it properly, but I'll tell you how I am going to do it: I know it may be wrong, but f**k it I'm too old to plow thru websites and telephone answering machine, I'll just swear at them or start crying.

    This reply is a two-parter in the wrong order: Part 1 is how to find out how much it is, Part 2 is how to pay it. This is Part 2

    Part 2: how to pay it


    2.1 Voluntary National Insurance:
    https://www.gov.uk/voluntary-national-insurance-contributions/deadlines
    This page tells you how to make voluntary NI contributions. It details two types, thus
    • Pay voluntary Class 2 National Insurance
    • Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance
    I clicked on "Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance" because I'm permie.


    2.2 Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance
    https://www.gov.uk/pay-voluntary-class-3-national-insurance
    This page tells you how to make voluntary NI contributions. It details five methods, thus:
    • Direct Debit
    • Approve a payment through your online bank account
    • Make an online or telephone bank transfer
    • At your bank or building society
    • By cheque through the post
    I clicked on "By cheque through the post" because I hate tech.


    2.3 Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance by cheque thru the post
    https://www.gov.uk/pay-voluntary-class-3-national-insurance/by-post
    You can pay by sending a cheque to:

    HM Revenue and Customs
    National Insurance Contributions and Employer Office
    BX9 1AN

    Points to note
    • Make your cheque payable to ‘HM Revenue and Customs only’.
    • Write your Class 3 National Insurance reference number on the back of the cheque (or your NINO?)
    • Include a note with your name, address and phone number, Class 3 National Insurance contributions reference number (or National Insurance number), how much you’re paying and the period you’re paying for
    Part 1: how to find out how much it is

    1.1 Get a Government Gateway ID
    Firstly you need to get a Government Gateway ID. I assume you haven't got one so you need to get one. I assume it involves this website https://www.access.service.gov.uk/login/signin/creds and press "Create sign-in details" which will take you to here: https://www.access.service.gov.uk/login/create-account. This bit is difficult.

    When (?!) you have done that go here https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account

    1.2 Check your state pension
    https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account

    When you go here it will ask you for your Government Gateway ID and password, and since it's two-factor identification it will send you via phone/email for an additional code to complete the sign in

    When you have done that, it will give you Your State Pension summary. I am a poors so mine is tiny, but presumably yours will be bigger. Oooh-er. Print it out. You will see a link that says "View your National Insurance record". Click on that and it will takr you to this page https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/nirecord

    1.3 Check your NI record
    https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/nirecord

    This page gives your NI record in full. Expand the entries to find out your gaps. That is the amount you have to pay.

    Part 3: the deadline has been extended
    A big note on top of https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/nirecord has been inserted. It states the following:

    The deadline for making voluntary National Insurance contributions for eligible taxpayers with National Insurance gaps between April 2006 to April 2018 has been extended to 5 April 2025.

    So the deadline is considerably less pressing than it was.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,053
    edited July 2023
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    @DavidL

    I swear to goodness I do not know how to do it properly, but I'll tell you how I am going to do it: I know it may be wrong, but f**k it I'm too old to plow thru websites and telephone answering machine, I'll just swear at them or start crying.

    This reply is a two-parter in the wrong order: Part 1 is how to find out how much it is, Part 2 is how to pay it. This is Part 2

    Part 2: how to pay it


    2.1 Voluntary National Insurance:
    https://www.gov.uk/voluntary-national-insurance-contributions/deadlines
    This page tells you how to make voluntary NI contributions. It details two types, thus
    • Pay voluntary Class 2 National Insurance
    • Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance
    I clicked on "Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance" because I'm permie.


    2.2 Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance
    https://www.gov.uk/pay-voluntary-class-3-national-insurance
    This page tells you how to make voluntary NI contributions. It details five methods, thus:
    • Direct Debit
    • Approve a payment through your online bank account
    • Make an online or telephone bank transfer
    • At your bank or building society
    • By cheque through the post
    I clicked on "By cheque through the post" because I hate tech.


    2.3 Pay voluntary Class 3 National Insurance by cheque thru the post
    https://www.gov.uk/pay-voluntary-class-3-national-insurance/by-post
    You can pay by sending a cheque to:

    HM Revenue and Customs
    National Insurance Contributions and Employer Office
    BX9 1AN

    Points to note
    • Make your cheque payable to ‘HM Revenue and Customs only’.
    • Write your Class 3 National Insurance reference number on the back of the cheque (or your NINO?)
    • Include a note with your name, address and phone number, Class 3 National Insurance contributions reference number (or National Insurance number), how much you’re paying and the period you’re paying for
    Part 1: how to find out how much it is

    1.1 Get a Government Gateway ID
    Firstly you need to get a Government Gateway ID. I assume you haven't got one so you need to get one. I assume it involves this website https://www.access.service.gov.uk/login/signin/creds and press "Create sign-in details" which will take you to here: https://www.access.service.gov.uk/login/create-account. This bit is difficult.

    When (?!) you have done that go here https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account

    1.2 Check your state pension
    https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account

    When you go here it will ask you for your Government Gateway ID and password, and since it's two-factor identification it will send you via phone/email for an additional code to complete the sign in

    When you have done that, it will give you Your State Pension summary. I am a poors so mine is tiny, but presumably yours will be bigger. Oooh-er. Print it out. You will see a link that says "View your National Insurance record". Click on that and it will takr you to this page https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/nirecord

    1.3 Check your NI record
    https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/nirecord

    This page gives your NI record in full. Expand the entries to find out your gaps. That is the amount you have to pay.

    Part 3: the deadline has been extended
    A big note on top of https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/check-your-state-pension/account/nirecord has been inserted. It states the following:

    The deadline for making voluntary National Insurance contributions for eligible taxpayers with National Insurance gaps between April 2006 to April 2018 has been extended to 5 April 2025.

    So the deadline is considerably less pressing than it was.
    Part 4: Summary and conclusions

    I have shown you the following:
    • Part 1: how to find out how much it is
    • Part 2: how to pay it
    • Part 3: the deadline has been extended to 2025
    If you would like to register how useful this has been to you, please press the like button below.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,271
    edited July 2023
    GOP = Grifters on Parade

    Donald Trump = Grifter in Chief

    NYT ($) July13 - Trump Super PAC Made $155,000 Payment to Melania Trump in 2021
    The money was listed as pay for a “speaking engagement” by Ms. Trump in a new personal financial disclosure by her husband.

    A super PAC aligned with former President Donald J. Trump paid Melania Trump $155,000 in late 2021, an unusual payment that was not visible in the group’s initial federal reports and came to light only in a filing by Mr. Trump on Thursday.

    The money was listed as pay for a “speaking engagement” by Ms. Trump in the new filing, a personal financial disclosure by Mr. Trump. The $155,000 payment was made in December 2021 by Make America Great Again, Again, which at the time was Mr. Trump’s leading super PAC.

    Ms. Trump’s name, however, did not appear on the super PAC’s list of expenditures, which were made public last year.

    Instead, the super PAC’s report showed two payments, for $125,000 and $30,000, to “Designer’s Management Agency,” which lists Ms. Trump as a client on its website. The payments were made on Dec. 2 and Dec. 3, 2021; in the new disclosure, Mr. Trump reported that Ms. Trump was paid $155,000 on Dec. 2, 2021.

    In the super PAC’s filing, those two payments were labeled “event planning and consulting,” according to Federal Election Commission records. . . .

    . . . [A] representative for the super PAC, who declined to be identified by name, said that Ms. Trump had been hired through her agency for “design consulting” for the old super PAC’s dinner and that her responsibilities included choosing tableware, arranging settings and picking floral arrangements. The fee was $125,000, and the second $30,000 payment was for additional services rendered out of the scope of the first contract, the representative said. . . .

    The super PAC representative said the group did not know what share of the money Ms. Trump would receive from the agency.

    Mr. Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and a representative for Ms. Trump did not immediately respond to an email. Pam Bondi, who served at the time as the chair of Make America Great Again, Again, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    The December 2021 payment to Ms. Trump coincided with a private fund-raising dinner that the super PAC held at Mar-a-Lago and that Mr. Trump attended. Seats at the dinner were sold for $125,000 each and $250,000 for a couple.

    SSI - Look for the next Trump Con-PAC = Make America Great Again, Again, Again.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,759
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    GOP = Grifters on Parade

    Donald Trump = Grifter in Chief

    NYT ($) July13 - Trump Super PAC Made $155,000 Payment to Melania Trump in 2021
    The money was listed as pay for a “speaking engagement” by Ms. Trump in a new personal financial disclosure by her husband.

    A super PAC aligned with former President Donald J. Trump paid Melania Trump $155,000 in late 2021, an unusual payment that was not visible in the group’s initial federal reports and came to light only in a filing by Mr. Trump on Thursday.

    The money was listed as pay for a “speaking engagement” by Ms. Trump in the new filing, a personal financial disclosure by Mr. Trump. The $155,000 payment was made in December 2021 by Make America Great Again, Again, which at the time was Mr. Trump’s leading super PAC.

    Ms. Trump’s name, however, did not appear on the super PAC’s list of expenditures, which were made public last year.

    Instead, the super PAC’s report showed two payments, for $125,000 and $30,000, to “Designer’s Management Agency,” which lists Ms. Trump as a client on its website. The payments were made on Dec. 2 and Dec. 3, 2021; in the new disclosure, Mr. Trump reported that Ms. Trump was paid $155,000 on Dec. 2, 2021.

    In the super PAC’s filing, those two payments were labeled “event planning and consulting,” according to Federal Election Commission records. . . .

    . . . [A] representative for the super PAC, who declined to be identified by name, said that Ms. Trump had been hired through her agency for “design consulting” for the old super PAC’s dinner and that her responsibilities included choosing tableware, arranging settings and picking floral arrangements. The fee was $125,000, and the second $30,000 payment was for additional services rendered out of the scope of the first contract, the representative said. . . .

    The super PAC representative said the group did not know what share of the money Ms. Trump would receive from the agency.

    Mr. Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment, and a representative for Ms. Trump did not immediately respond to an email. Pam Bondi, who served at the time as the chair of Make America Great Again, Again, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    The December 2021 payment to Ms. Trump coincided with a private fund-raising dinner that the super PAC held at Mar-a-Lago and that Mr. Trump attended. Seats at the dinner were sold for $125,000 each and $250,000 for a couple.

    SSI - Look for the next Trump Con-PAC = Make America Great Again, Again, Again.

    Mr. Trump is a man of unblemished reputation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,759
    More in Common has a poll conducted yesterday.

    Lab 44% (-2%)
    Con 29% (+1%)
    Lib Dem 12% (+2%)
    Green 5%
    Reform 5% (-1%)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,454
    Miklosvar said:

    DougSeal said:

    Have we done Seaham Conservative Club being fined for 'death match' wrestling yet?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-66222964

    Bloody hell, quite literally.

    Loving that one of the charges was doing this stuff *without a licence."
    'On the injuries the men suffered, he added medics were present and they "didn't have to do too much".

    He said there had been "a couple of scratches here and there".'

    Just have to hope nobody had hepatitis, for a start.

    Wincing at the thought of splashing blood on the upholstery ...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,053
    edited July 2023
    kamski said:

    Carnyx said:

    DavidL said:

    Benpointer said:

    DavidL said:

    FPT

    viewcode said:
    I believe some of you were interested in the deadline for voluntary NI contributions. The deadline has been extended to 31 July 2023. You have twelve days left.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/taxpayers-given-more-time-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions

    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    I'd try raising it with your MP if all else fails. Also, tell you wife to keep a simple diary of her attempts to get through. I suspect eventually you'll be allowed to make the additional contributions after the 31 July deadline using the current rates if you can show you tried and were prevented from doing so.
    Thanks for the suggestion, particularly the diary point, but it has got to a pretty pass when some defect on a public facing website needs to be raised with an MP because there is no other way of getting past the blockage. What sort of an idiot designs these things?
    We had (probably) the same problem with Mrs C. Comments on previous thread, before I realised there was a new one!
    Not sure if this has already been mentioned but the NI deadline has been extended to April 2025

    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/deadline-for-voluntary-national-insurance-contributions-extended-to-april-2025
    Yes. I didn't notice it until I was half-way thru my EXTREMELY DETAILED HOW-TO GUIDE. In fairness to me, I did add it as part 3.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,520
    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    Disclaimer - I am not a Londoner, so cannot claim to have skin in the game or an idea of the strength of feeling generally, but is there a small chance that ULEZ could cause the mother of all upsets?

    I’m not convinced on the argument, but let’s say the mayoral vote doesn’t happen at the same time as the GE (which seems likely given that’s looking like autumn), the outer suburbs are motivated to turn out, Inner London less so, there’s a strong campaign in outer London to vote to get rid of ULEZ expansion, it’s a FPTP election….

    Sure the Tories are in a mire nationally and this candidate looks to be poor on paper, but if I squint and turn my head to the side I can probably be convinced it’s a possible upset, but would need further insight/research before I’d be tempted to bet any money on it!

    How close the Tories run Labour in Uxbridge will be interesting…
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,157
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    Agreed. What's your own view on that?
    I reckon there are three lanes. Red meat (Badenoch, Braverman...), Steady as she sinks (Barclay, Shapps, Cleverley?), Make some peace with the electorate (Mordaunt, some token wet but God knows who). Two of those make it through to the party membership, who will probably go for the most right wing option they are offered.

    So, unless the hard right are decisively routed, they can get someone onto the final ballot. Personally, I suspect they will have enough MPs to get one of their own through to the membership.

    Hold on to your hats, folks...
    What exactly does your fear of this 'hard right' comprise? Do you think we'll see soaring bond yields, runaway inflation, a flatlining economy? We're already there. Your much vaunted 'adults' are 'back in the room' and doing precisely jack shit to contribute to our economical recovery, or anything else positive quite frankly.
    I'm sorry, I should have said precisely nothing, there was no need for coarse language.
    You talking to yourself again? Much like the right wing of the Party formally known as Conservative.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 48,420
    numbertwelve said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    Disclaimer - I am not a Londoner, so cannot claim to have skin in the game or an idea of the strength of feeling generally, but is there a small chance that ULEZ could cause the mother of all upsets?

    I’m not convinced on the argument, but let’s say the mayoral vote doesn’t happen at the same time as the GE (which seems likely given that’s looking like autumn), the outer suburbs are motivated to turn out, Inner London less so, there’s a strong campaign in outer London to vote to get rid of ULEZ expansion, it’s a FPTP election….

    Sure the Tories are in a mire nationally and this candidate looks to be poor on paper, but if I squint and turn my head to the side I can probably be convinced it’s a possible upset, but would need further insight/research before I’d be tempted to bet any money on it!

    How close the Tories run Labour in Uxbridge will be interesting…
    No - I think it will dent the vote, but not fatally.

    The way it’s been implanted is a bit shit for some quite pot people. A more nuanced implantation would have caused more political problems, with the demand being for ever more complex exclusions.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,084
    numbertwelve said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    Disclaimer - I am not a Londoner, so cannot claim to have skin in the game or an idea of the strength of feeling generally, but is there a small chance that ULEZ could cause the mother of all upsets?

    I’m not convinced on the argument, but let’s say the mayoral vote doesn’t happen at the same time as the GE (which seems likely given that’s looking like autumn), the outer suburbs are motivated to turn out, Inner London less so, there’s a strong campaign in outer London to vote to get rid of ULEZ expansion, it’s a FPTP election….

    Sure the Tories are in a mire nationally and this candidate looks to be poor on paper, but if I squint and turn my head to the side I can probably be convinced it’s a possible upset, but would need further insight/research before I’d be tempted to bet any money on it!

    How close the Tories run Labour in Uxbridge will be interesting…
    It is possible, and we need to remember Labour has lost three out of six London Mayor elections.
  • TazTaz Posts: 13,605
    numbertwelve said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    Disclaimer - I am not a Londoner, so cannot claim to have skin in the game or an idea of the strength of feeling generally, but is there a small chance that ULEZ could cause the mother of all upsets?

    I’m not convinced on the argument, but let’s say the mayoral vote doesn’t happen at the same time as the GE (which seems likely given that’s looking like autumn), the outer suburbs are motivated to turn out, Inner London less so, there’s a strong campaign in outer London to vote to get rid of ULEZ expansion, it’s a FPTP election….

    Sure the Tories are in a mire nationally and this candidate looks to be poor on paper, but if I squint and turn my head to the side I can probably be convinced it’s a possible upset, but would need further insight/research before I’d be tempted to bet any money on it!

    How close the Tories run Labour in Uxbridge will be interesting…
    I don’t want to come over all Rogerdamus here but I think labour will Win comfortably.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,135
    numbertwelve said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    Disclaimer - I am not a Londoner, so cannot claim to have skin in the game or an idea of the strength of feeling generally, but is there a small chance that ULEZ could cause the mother of all upsets?

    I’m not convinced on the argument, but let’s say the mayoral vote doesn’t happen at the same time as the GE (which seems likely given that’s looking like autumn), the outer suburbs are motivated to turn out, Inner London less so, there’s a strong campaign in outer London to vote to get rid of ULEZ expansion, it’s a FPTP election….

    Sure the Tories are in a mire nationally and this candidate looks to be poor on paper, but if I squint and turn my head to the side I can probably be convinced it’s a possible upset, but would need further insight/research before I’d be tempted to bet any money on it!

    How close the Tories run Labour in Uxbridge will be interesting…
    BF have the Tories about 12% to win and not rushing to back (or lay) that. I think they will outperform current and national polling, probably a similar loss to Baileys despite an even less suitable candidate and the party nationally being more unpopular. But a win is less than 10% from here for me, possible and not quite the mother of all upsets but pretty unlikely.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,157
    Stuartinromford said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    Agreed. What's your own view on that?
    I reckon there are three lanes. Red meat (Badenoch, Braverman...), Steady as she sinks (Barclay, Shapps, Cleverley?), Make some peace with the electorate (Mordaunt, some token wet but God knows who). Two of those make it through to the party membership, who will probably go for the most right wing option they are offered.

    So, unless the hard right are decisively routed, they can get someone onto the final ballot. Personally, I suspect they will have enough MPs to get one of their own through to the membership.

    Hold on to your hats, folks...
    What exactly does your fear of this 'hard right' comprise? Do you think we'll see soaring bond yields, runaway inflation, a flatlining economy? We're already there. Your much vaunted 'adults' are 'back in the room' and doing precisely jack shit to contribute to our economical recovery, or anything else positive quite frankly.
    Because they will lose with the public. Same as IDS did. Same as Susan Hall will.

    Which means that no Conservatives will be doing anything for anyone.

    The "the public are hungry for radical change so down with reformism" is the sort of thing that Conservatives rightly point and laugh at lefties for.
    The right wing of the Popular Front of Johnson party (formally known as Conservative) have taken over from the Corbynites for lala land economics. They actually believe the shite they talk. It is quite amusing if it were not so serious for the Tory Party and therefore the country, partic if their stupidity leads to a massive majority for Labour.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,157
    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    I am not sure there is any "certainly" about it HYUFDamis. Most people thought the selectorate would choose Davis over Cameron by a landslide. Admittedly they are a lot more bonkers now than they were then, but there is no "certainly"
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,135
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    Agreed. What's your own view on that?
    I reckon there are three lanes. Red meat (Badenoch, Braverman...), Steady as she sinks (Barclay, Shapps, Cleverley?), Make some peace with the electorate (Mordaunt, some token wet but God knows who). Two of those make it through to the party membership, who will probably go for the most right wing option they are offered.

    So, unless the hard right are decisively routed, they can get someone onto the final ballot. Personally, I suspect they will have enough MPs to get one of their own through to the membership.

    Hold on to your hats, folks...
    What exactly does your fear of this 'hard right' comprise? Do you think we'll see soaring bond yields, runaway inflation, a flatlining economy? We're already there. Your much vaunted 'adults' are 'back in the room' and doing precisely jack shit to contribute to our economical recovery, or anything else positive quite frankly.
    Because they will lose with the public. Same as IDS did. Same as Susan Hall will.

    Which means that no Conservatives will be doing anything for anyone.

    The "the public are hungry for radical change so down with reformism" is the sort of thing that Conservatives rightly point and laugh at lefties for.
    The right wing of the Popular Front of Johnson party (formally known as Conservative) have taken over from the Corbynites for lala land economics. They actually believe the shite they talk. It is quite amusing if it were not so serious for the Tory Party and therefore the country, partic if their stupidity leads to a massive majority for Labour.
    It is not the danger of a massive majority for Labour that is the big problem, the main one is it risks us spiralling into two camps who effectively live in different worlds a la the USA. A secondary issue is if either party goes extreme it allows the other party to indulge its own fantasies and sensible options for voters to choose from become increasingly rare.
  • ajbajb Posts: 141
    edited July 2023
    DavidL said:


    My wife has tried to explore this but simply cannot get into the HMRC site. She has given them the requisite information but it won't let her in. Trying to find assistance on this has proven impossible to date. If anyone has an idea of how to get someone, anyone, from HMRC respond or assist I would be grateful if you would share it.

    If Viewcode's advice isn't sufficient, I believe accountants get some kind of expert mode in the HMRC website, so if it's worth enough then you could try getting one to help.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,157
    noneoftheabove said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    Agreed. What's your own view on that?
    I reckon there are three lanes. Red meat (Badenoch, Braverman...), Steady as she sinks (Barclay, Shapps, Cleverley?), Make some peace with the electorate (Mordaunt, some token wet but God knows who). Two of those make it through to the party membership, who will probably go for the most right wing option they are offered.

    So, unless the hard right are decisively routed, they can get someone onto the final ballot. Personally, I suspect they will have enough MPs to get one of their own through to the membership.

    Hold on to your hats, folks...
    What exactly does your fear of this 'hard right' comprise? Do you think we'll see soaring bond yields, runaway inflation, a flatlining economy? We're already there. Your much vaunted 'adults' are 'back in the room' and doing precisely jack shit to contribute to our economical recovery, or anything else positive quite frankly.
    Because they will lose with the public. Same as IDS did. Same as Susan Hall will.

    Which means that no Conservatives will be doing anything for anyone.

    The "the public are hungry for radical change so down with reformism" is the sort of thing that Conservatives rightly point and laugh at lefties for.
    The right wing of the Popular Front of Johnson party (formally known as Conservative) have taken over from the Corbynites for lala land economics. They actually believe the shite they talk. It is quite amusing if it were not so serious for the Tory Party and therefore the country, partic if their stupidity leads to a massive majority for Labour.
    It is not the danger of a massive majority for Labour that is the big problem, the main one is it risks us spiralling into two camps who effectively live in different worlds a la the USA. A secondary issue is if either party goes extreme it allows the other party to indulge its own fantasies and sensible options for voters to choose from become increasingly rare.
    100% agree. It was only because the Labour Party was so extreme and divided that Johnson was able to a) win the referendum and b) then get a massive majority enabling the purge of sensible Tories and the elevation of political numbskulls like Dorries and Rees-Mogg
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,271
    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    DougSeal said:

    Have we done Seaham Conservative Club being fined for 'death match' wrestling yet?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-66222964

    Bloody hell, quite literally.

    Loving that one of the charges was doing this stuff *without a licence."
    'On the injuries the men suffered, he added medics were present and they "didn't have to do too much".

    He said there had been "a couple of scratches here and there".'

    Just have to hope nobody had hepatitis, for a start.

    Wincing at the thought of splashing blood on the upholstery ...
    Back in the day, might have been amusing - if NOT edifying - to witness similar Seaham Death Match between Ramsey Macdonald and Emanuel Shinwell?

    In Nov 1935 general election, between incumbent MP and PM Ramsey Mac (with significant advantage as to reach, and sneaky twister to boot) and challenger Manny S (short, stout bruiser).

    Shinwell (68% and 20.5k majority) beat Macdonald (32%) like a gong.

    Buckets of (political) blood shed by the enfeebled PM, who had to resort to a conveniently contrived by-election jan 1936 for Combined Scottish Universities, then something of a Tory closed (if not rotten) borough.

    Though reckon Ramsey Macdonald did NOT get Jimmy Maxton's vote!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 16,541
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Stuartinromford said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    If even London Tories want a raw steak right winger then hold onto your hats for the next Conservative leadership election if Sunak loses next year. The members will certainly pick the most right wing candidate that Tory MPs offer them in the last two
    Agreed. What's your own view on that?
    I reckon there are three lanes. Red meat (Badenoch, Braverman...), Steady as she sinks (Barclay, Shapps, Cleverley?), Make some peace with the electorate (Mordaunt, some token wet but God knows who). Two of those make it through to the party membership, who will probably go for the most right wing option they are offered.

    So, unless the hard right are decisively routed, they can get someone onto the final ballot. Personally, I suspect they will have enough MPs to get one of their own through to the membership.

    Hold on to your hats, folks...
    What exactly does your fear of this 'hard right' comprise? Do you think we'll see soaring bond yields, runaway inflation, a flatlining economy? We're already there. Your much vaunted 'adults' are 'back in the room' and doing precisely jack shit to contribute to our economical recovery, or anything else positive quite frankly.
    Because they will lose with the public. Same as IDS did. Same as Susan Hall will.

    Which means that no Conservatives will be doing anything for anyone.

    The "the public are hungry for radical change so down with reformism" is the sort of thing that Conservatives rightly point and laugh at lefties for.
    The right wing of the Popular Front of Johnson party (formally known as Conservative) have taken over from the Corbynites for lala land economics. They actually believe the shite they talk. It is quite amusing if it were not so serious for the Tory Party and therefore the country, partic if their stupidity leads to a massive majority for Labour.
    Worse than that.

    Truss at least offered optimism. Whatever you think of the realism of that optimism, it was optimistic.

    What comes next might well be from the "angry people shouting at clouds" catalogue.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,016
    Aussie 255 for 7 after brilliant Bairstow catch
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    Great catch!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,750
    This is even more interesting than last week's news of the discovery of a gene that makes long Covid more likely.

    A common allele of HLA is associated with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06331-x
    ...We show that, among participants reporting a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, HLA-B*15:01 is significantly associated with asymptomatic infection. We observed that individuals carrying this common allele (approximately 10% in individuals with European ancestry) are more than twice as likely to remain asymptomatic after SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with those who do not, and a notable effect of HLA-B*15:01 homozygosity increasing the chance of remaining asymptomatic by more than eight times...

    Note the study recruited bone marrow donors
    from whom high-resolution HLA genotyping data were already available, to participate in a smartphone-based study designed to track COVID-19 symptoms and outcomes.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,750
    Nigelb said:

    This is even more interesting than last week's news of the discovery of a gene that makes long Covid more likely.

    A common allele of HLA is associated with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06331-x
    ...We show that, among participants reporting a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, HLA-B*15:01 is significantly associated with asymptomatic infection. We observed that individuals carrying this common allele (approximately 10% in individuals with European ancestry) are more than twice as likely to remain asymptomatic after SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with those who do not, and a notable effect of HLA-B*15:01 homozygosity increasing the chance of remaining asymptomatic by more than eight times...

    Note the study recruited bone marrow donors
    from whom high-resolution HLA genotyping data were already available, to participate in a smartphone-based study designed to track COVID-19 symptoms and outcomes.

    It's also a neat demonstration that the variation of genetically determined disease severity is far greater within an ethnic grouping than it is between different ethnic groups.
    For those still tempted to take RFK Jnr.'s nonsense seriously.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,454
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    DougSeal said:

    Have we done Seaham Conservative Club being fined for 'death match' wrestling yet?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-66222964

    Bloody hell, quite literally.

    Loving that one of the charges was doing this stuff *without a licence."
    'On the injuries the men suffered, he added medics were present and they "didn't have to do too much".

    He said there had been "a couple of scratches here and there".'

    Just have to hope nobody had hepatitis, for a start.

    Wincing at the thought of splashing blood on the upholstery ...
    Back in the day, might have been amusing - if NOT edifying - to witness similar Seaham Death Match between Ramsey Macdonald and Emanuel Shinwell?

    In Nov 1935 general election, between incumbent MP and PM Ramsey Mac (with significant advantage as to reach, and sneaky twister to boot) and challenger Manny S (short, stout bruiser).

    Shinwell (68% and 20.5k majority) beat Macdonald (32%) like a gong.

    Buckets of (political) blood shed by the enfeebled PM, who had to resort to a conveniently contrived by-election jan 1936 for Combined Scottish Universities, then something of a Tory closed (if not rotten) borough.

    Though reckon Ramsey Macdonald did NOT get Jimmy Maxton's vote!
    On a point of PB pedantry, Mr RamsAy MacDonald was already punchdrunk (ie in mental decline) and heading down the league or whatever it is that boxers have (wasn't PM any more). From what I've read of his state in 1936, I'm seriously surprised he got through the CSU campaign (perhaps cos the electorate, of graduates, was dispersed by definition so no hustings ...). But maybe it came and went.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,454
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is even more interesting than last week's news of the discovery of a gene that makes long Covid more likely.

    A common allele of HLA is associated with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06331-x
    ...We show that, among participants reporting a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, HLA-B*15:01 is significantly associated with asymptomatic infection. We observed that individuals carrying this common allele (approximately 10% in individuals with European ancestry) are more than twice as likely to remain asymptomatic after SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with those who do not, and a notable effect of HLA-B*15:01 homozygosity increasing the chance of remaining asymptomatic by more than eight times...

    Note the study recruited bone marrow donors
    from whom high-resolution HLA genotyping data were already available, to participate in a smartphone-based study designed to track COVID-19 symptoms and outcomes.

    It's also a neat demonstration that the variation of genetically determined disease severity is far greater within an ethnic grouping than it is between different ethnic groups.
    For those still tempted to take RFK Jnr.'s nonsense seriously.
    I'd been wondering about that since the first discussion, as it's usually the case, but this is very nice to have.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,089
    edited July 2023
    Nigelb said:

    This is even more interesting than last week's news of the discovery of a gene that makes long Covid more likely.

    A common allele of HLA is associated with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06331-x
    ...We show that, among participants reporting a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, HLA-B*15:01 is significantly associated with asymptomatic infection. We observed that individuals carrying this common allele (approximately 10% in individuals with European ancestry) are more than twice as likely to remain asymptomatic after SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with those who do not, and a notable effect of HLA-B*15:01 homozygosity increasing the chance of remaining asymptomatic by more than eight times...

    Note the study recruited bone marrow donors
    from whom high-resolution HLA genotyping data were already available, to participate in a smartphone-based study designed to track COVID-19 symptoms and outcomes.

    I missed the long covid news last week. I would be interested in it as I am suffering (mildly) over 18 months after first having Covid. Mine (parosmia) is annoying and a bit draining rather than being in any way limiting so I have just come to accept that it may now be a permanent feature of my life but I am still interested to know if it is 'long covid' as people define it or simply the result of permanent damage to my taste buds.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,084
    President Biden tweets extracts from a Marjorie Taylor Green speech:-

    I approve this message.
    https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1681424737384435713

    (Elon should let you follow the link.)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,568
    At the Klompen overlooking Namsos Bay, which those interested in military history might remember was a key landing point for British troops during the abortive Narvik campaign. Sadly the town got levelled by German bombs early in the invasion, so it's not a particularly characterful place.

    Bizarrely, the hill itself is leased by the Norwegian Temperance movement so they can stop people selling alcohol up here. As if the price of it weren't enough.


  • felixfelix Posts: 15,139
    Interesting GESOP poll today in Spain. It has the PP lead at just 3.5%... but up in 2 days from their previous poll lead of 2.3%
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    maxh said:

    HYUFD said:

    I see Susan Hall selected as Conservative candidate for London Mayor with 57 per cent of Tory London members votes. Probably the most right wing candidate the Conservatives have chosen for London Mayor she will run hard against ULEZ and a on a tough on crime agenda. While she could do well in the suburbs, hard to see her doing well in inner London

    It does feel very much like the London Tories looking inwards and relinquishing any shot at power in favour of ideological purity. Which is perhaps unsurprising but disappointing for the quality of local democracy. I wonder if the same instincts will play out nationally?

    It's always important to have a good Opposition, but it feels particularly important that we have a decent one in the next few years - some hard choices are going to need to be made.
    This may be unpopular with some but I simply don't think party members are the right people to make such choices. It's a party talking to itself and not looking outwards at the voters.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,454
    IanB2 said:

    At the Klompen overlooking Namsos Bay, which those interested in military history might remember was a key landing point for British troops during the abortive Narvik campaign. Sadly the town got levelled by German bombs early in the invasion, so it's not a particularly characterful place.

    Bizarrely, the hill itself is leased by the Norwegian Temperance movement so they can stop people selling alcohol up here. As if the price of it weren't enough.


    Mention of the campaign makes me wonder, did you get to see Oscarsborg Fortress, a gun and torpedo battery on the fjord leading to Oslo? The one which sank a German cruiser when the Germans didn't take it seriously enough.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Drøbak_Sound

    Or for that matter the 3 x 28cm gun turret off Gneisenau that the Germans put at Austrått Fort near Orland at the mouth of Trondheimfjord?

    On my bucket list, as is Norway more generally ...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,750
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is even more interesting than last week's news of the discovery of a gene that makes long Covid more likely.

    A common allele of HLA is associated with asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06331-x
    ...We show that, among participants reporting a positive test result for SARS-CoV-2, HLA-B*15:01 is significantly associated with asymptomatic infection. We observed that individuals carrying this common allele (approximately 10% in individuals with European ancestry) are more than twice as likely to remain asymptomatic after SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with those who do not, and a notable effect of HLA-B*15:01 homozygosity increasing the chance of remaining asymptomatic by more than eight times...

    Note the study recruited bone marrow donors
    from whom high-resolution HLA genotyping data were already available, to participate in a smartphone-based study designed to track COVID-19 symptoms and outcomes.

    I missed the long covid news last week. I would be interested in it as I am suffering (mildly) over 18 months after first having Covid. Mine (parosmia) is annoying and a bit draining rather than being in any way limiting so I have just come to accept that it may now be a permanent feature of my life but I am still interested to know if it is 'long covid' as people define it or simply the result of permanent damage to my taste buds.
    That was this study.
    https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02269-2

    I don't think it has much to do with your situation (which I share, though mine is much closer to anosmia); rather those who have suffered more serious long term symptoms.

    I think there have been suggestions elsewhere than the parosmia/anosmia conditions might improve over a long time.
    We'll see.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 68,750
    Sandpit said:

    Great catch!

    The tail are taking this away from us.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,314
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Great catch!

    The tail are taking this away from us.
    Was just thinking that. They’re going to put on another bloody 100 for those last three wickets.

    Hopefully the new ball comes tonight. We’ve been very slow bowling today.
This discussion has been closed.