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Today’s must read – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    "AI has always plagued mankind
    Technological arrogance brought about our Fall
    By Jacob Howland

    Why are the countries of the West sliding toward electronically enhanced totalitarianism? Was it inevitable that government employees and corporate technicians wielding digital and psychological tools would promote a false conspiracy theory to cripple a sitting American president, and suppress and discredit news to aid a favoured candidate? Or that public health officials in Europe and the English-speaking world would use what may have been the deliberate release of a Chinese bioweapon to infringe civil liberties and hijack representative democracy?"

    https://unherd.com/2023/07/ai-has-always-plagued-mankind/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    The problem was that the industrial users were on Tweetdeck, not on Twitter and not seeing any adverts. Hence now restricting that service to those paying Twitter directly.

    I know Musk doesn’t understand advertising, which is why he hired an advertising exec and is getting revenue directly from users.
    Let's run some figures. In 2021, Twitter made $4.6 billion from advertising. (1)

    Let's say the subscription costs $8 a month, or ~$100 a year.

    Let's also say advertising revenue has halved to $2.3 billion.

    To make up that 'lost' $2.3 billion, you would need 23 million subscribers, as you make Twitter less appealing to non-subscribers. And have to service a humongous debt. And now pay put to 'large' tweeters.

    That's a big ask, for something that was free before.

    (1): https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/twitter-ad-revenue
    Agree that 23m is a lot of $100 paid subscribers, and that they’re probably at around 10% of that at the moment.

    On the other side, there are a few thousand coprorate accounts that are paying $10k a month, and they’ve lost 5k staff, which at $100k each is $500m.

    It’s a long way to sustainability, but they are slowly getting there.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    edited July 2023
    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    He's now paying mainly right wing posters with a large following an ad revenue share.
    I'm not clear how this will help the finances.
    That claims says more about your information bubble than about Twitter or Musk. Do you have any evidence that ad revenue payouts are going mainly to right wing posters?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831

    Carnyx said:

    Andy_JS said:
    ...
    There is a strand of opinion that prosecuting shoplifters is pointless and cruel.

    The low value of the actual product stolen, per theft, is often pointed out.

    In parts of the US, prosecution has been stopped. Leaving to organised theft rings. And stores quitting the areas in question.
    OTOH, that does assume there is a functioning police and courts system. Which is decreasingly the case in the UK.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,126

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    He's now paying mainly right wing posters with a large following an ad revenue share.
    I'm not clear how this will help the finances.
    That claims says more about your information bubble than about Twitter or Musk. Do you have any evidence that ad revenue payouts are going mainly to right wing posters?
    I think it’s too early to tell what’s going on in terms of overall proportions of payments, but certainly we’ve seen large payments to right-wing conspiracists promoting racism, anti-vax etc.: https://www.mediamatters.org/twitter/right-wing-misinformers-and-bad-actors-have-already-earned-tens-thousands-dollars-under
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831
    edited July 2023
    ydoethur said:

    This story is possible of interest too:

    Plan to crack down on 'rip-off' university degrees
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66216005

    I hope that includes a commitment to phase out PPE at Oxford and the MA in Public Policy at Birkbeck. Given the vast amounts their graduates cost the nation they're definitely a rip off.

    That graph is inherently weighted by the detrimental effect of loans etc. Which is logical in one sense, but presupposes the current tax on education given the nature of the loan system. And has the effect of "proving" that creative arts, e.g., has a negative effect on life. And that is a 2020-published study too, before the recent and arbitrary (at the time) increases in interest rates well in excess of bank rate. So what it really proves is that Tories make university education increasingly unworkable for many. It's certainly not directly comparable to the situation when you, I, Blair, Clegg and Cameron were students.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    He's now paying mainly right wing posters with a large following an ad revenue share.
    I'm not clear how this will help the finances.
    That claims says more about your information bubble than about Twitter or Musk. Do you have any evidence that ad revenue payouts are going mainly to right wing posters?
    What happened is that a lot of left-liberal political commentators refused to pay for Twitter Blue when it started, so now they’re complaining about being left out of the payments, and writing articles in the MSM about Twitter supporting only “the far right”. The reality is that the payments have gone to people with all sorts of opinions, so long as they paid the subscription that included the monetisation features.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Belief in the “blob” is also what will see the Tories in opposition for over a decade. Why adopt a theory the conclusion of which is that you are impotent and bad at your job? I think voters are more interested in political parties that will say they can get things done than political parties that whine that everyone’s against them.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    He's now paying mainly right wing posters with a large following an ad revenue share.
    I'm not clear how this will help the finances.
    That claims says more about your information bubble than about Twitter or Musk. Do you have any evidence that ad revenue payouts are going mainly to right wing posters?
    What happened is that a lot of left-liberal political commentators refused to pay for Twitter Blue when it started, so now they’re complaining about being left out of the payments, and writing articles in the MSM about Twitter supporting only “the far right”. The reality is that the payments have gone to people with all sorts of opinions, so long as they paid the subscription that included the monetisation features.
    Do you think Twitter should be giving money to white supremacists and anti-vaxxers?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Oh, and on topic...

    The final GB score in 1997 was L43 C31. So my starting point is that if that's the final score next time, we're looking at a big Conservative defeat. The rise of the SNP will take quite a bit of the Labour majority, but there's a lot to spare from a 179 seat majority.

    The current wikiworm average is L46 C26. By comparison, ICM through 1996 (and that's the only polling with a comparable mechanism) was about L47 C31. The swingback (such as it was) was @MoonRabbit's observation that some voters realise that an anti-Conservative vote in their seat was Lib Dem.

    It doesn't have to be 1997, and the key determinant is how efficient the anti-Conservative vote can become in one go. It was already pretty efficient in 1992, but was crazy inefficient in 2019.

    But 1997 increasingly looks like the base map to use- probably as in "not as good as 1997 for Labour, but roughly as bad for the Conservatives."

    I'm making two predictions for the next GE:

    1) Labour will gain a large majority of over 100 seats.

    2) Within a year, there will be a scandal that will cause at least one Labour MP to resign. Probably one of the newer MPs.
    A majority of over 100 requires a net gain of over 170 seats.

    That is a lot.

    The record in the postwar era* is 1997, when Blair gained 148 seats (not including boundary changes).

    Next best are David Cameron in 2010 (109 seats) and Edward Heath in 1970 (77 seats).

    If we consider Starmer to be a character similar in many ways to Heath, the urbane civil servant that people spend their lives underestimating, and remember Sunak is no Harold Wilson, a gain of around 100-110 seats seems plausible.

    But that still leaves him well short of a majority and reliant on a 'kick the fuckers out' mentality among other opposition parties to form a government.

    Is it possible he could do better? Yes.

    Is it likely? I would say not.

    *which does not include 1945.
    I agree it's a stretch, but I think it's perfectly possible. The current government is in utter disarray (as in 1992-7, not really the PM's fault), and I see no way that the government can regain the public's trust. They're going to get malleted. And the Scottish situation makes it more likely as well.
    I'd say it's a 50-1 shot at least.

    And I don't think those kind of shots come in very often.

    At least, it's not as though anyone ever talks about them on here these days although I think one of them did come up once and may have been mentioned just a couple of times.
    Two reasons why it wouldn't be crazy for it to be different this time...

    First is that there's quite a lot of low-hanging fruit (some of them pro-hanging fruitcakes). Just not having Lib and Lab shooting at each other moves quite a few seats, maybe enough to get back to about 2015. (Boris didn't put on that many more votes or share compared to his predecessors.)

    Also, political campaigning has changed in a way that makes spectacular shifts in seat numbers easier. Go back to the days of Heath and parties were constrained by the number of activists and how many letterboxes they could rattle. Door to door combat was only possible in a finite number of seats and that limited the number of seat gains that was possible.

    Thatcher and the Saatchis broke that limit a bit by revolutionising national political advertising in the 1980s. Cummings and Vote Leave smashed it in 2016-9 by using social media. That allows you to run an entire election campaign with one computer connection, a moderate amount of money and one psychopath.

    It does seem absurd that Boring Old Starmer might be on course for a spectacular win (and even to get a majority of 1 will be pretty spectacular; it's not that long ago that a minority government that could ignore the SNP seemed like a stretch target). It will be really galling for Conservatives, and will have to make us all wonder if Blair was really all that.

    But the Conservatives are really unpopular and seem to be lacking ideas to turn that round. If they lose big, what's the alternative to a big Labour win?
    If the Conservatives lose (vote share) in a big way, the alternative to a big Labour win is that the Tory vote fractures four ways - between Labour, Lib Dems, the far-right and the Greens. Then you'd have lots of seats which would be won on low vote shares, and whether the winner is Labour, or Tory (or Lib Dem), would be impossible to predict. You could end up with almost any result.

    You could have Labour winning a huge landslide with less than 40% of the vote, or you could have the Tories as largest party in a hung Parliament, even though some distance behind in vote share. The Lib Dems might more than double their seats (I don't advise betting on this one). Anything could happen.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,126

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Belief in the “blob” is also what will see the Tories in opposition for over a decade. Why adopt a theory the conclusion of which is that you are impotent and bad at your job? I think voters are more interested in political parties that will say they can get things done than political parties that whine that everyone’s against them.
    Because it isn't theory.

    Anyone who has ever worked in/encountered a government department can see the obvious institutional resistance.

  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523

    On Topic I concur with PK

    Please save this prediction for GE 2024

    Lab 40%
    Con 35%

    Hung Parliament

    Prediction for GE

    Lab 44%
    Con 29%
    My prediction: Lab 41, Con 28, LD 16
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Your first sentence is the bedrock on which Trussism was built. Not an option ATM.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    He's now paying mainly right wing posters with a large following an ad revenue share.
    I'm not clear how this will help the finances.
    That claims says more about your information bubble than about Twitter or Musk. Do you have any evidence that ad revenue payouts are going mainly to right wing posters?
    No, you're correct.
    At the moment, the program is by invitation only, but he appears to have something of an equal opportunity approach towards the type if poster he chooses.

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/technology/2023/7/14/23794456/elon-musk-ad-revenue-share-creator-twitter-users
    ...But since it financially rewards creators who have more replies, Twitter’s new program could incentivize its creators to post controversial tweets that spark heated conversation. One user pointed this out, tweeting, “The more haters you have in your replies the more money you’ll make on Twitter.” To which Musk replied, “Poetic justice.”..

    But paying the likes of Andrew Tate to hang out there isn't going do much for his ad revenue.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.


  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Belief in the “blob” is also what will see the Tories in opposition for over a decade. Why adopt a theory the conclusion of which is that you are impotent and bad at your job? I think voters are more interested in political parties that will say they can get things done than political parties that whine that everyone’s against them.
    The Telegraph highlighted this example yesterday, of a quango who are doing their best to undermine housebuilding.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/07/15/natural-england-block-new-homes-ulez-zones-ltns/

    New housing is being blocked unless councillors agree to introduce green schemes such as Ulez and low-traffic neighbourhoods, in an approach that the environment watchdog is preparing to roll out across the country.

    “Natural England, which is already accused of blocking up to 145,000 homes, has commissioned a review of “mitigation measures” that could be used to limit emissions associated with new properties in the vicinity of more than 330 designated areas across the country.

    “The approach is already under way in the Epping Forest district of Essex, where the local council has sparked anger among residents by drawing up plans to introduce a Ulez-style “clean air zone” from 2025, under which cars and other vehicles would be charged each time they enter the area.

    “The council said it had been “advised by Natural England, as the responsible statutory body”, that it would be unable to approve new developments unless it simultaneously introduced measures to control air pollution in the area.”


    Now if only we had some posters here who live in Epping?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Belief in the “blob” is also what will see the Tories in opposition for over a decade. Why adopt a theory the conclusion of which is that you are impotent and bad at your job? I think voters are more interested in political parties that will say they can get things done than political parties that whine that everyone’s against them.
    Because it isn't theory.

    Anyone who has ever worked in/encountered a government department can see the obvious institutional resistance.

    All institutions have a certain degree of momentum that takes time to change. It is a leader’s job to achieve that change, to convince people of the need for a new direction and rally support for their solution. There are dozens of books on change management if any of this is confusing for Tory MPs.

    The Conservatives have been in power for 13 years. If that wasn’t enough time to turn the supertanker around… well, what’s the point of voting in Conservatives if they can’t do anything after over a decade in charge? Vote for us: we’re unable to get anything done — not a great rallying cry.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    He's now paying mainly right wing posters with a large following an ad revenue share.
    I'm not clear how this will help the finances.
    That claims says more about your information bubble than about Twitter or Musk. Do you have any evidence that ad revenue payouts are going mainly to right wing posters?
    I think it’s too early to tell what’s going on in terms of overall proportions of payments, but certainly we’ve seen large payments to right-wing conspiracists promoting racism, anti-vax etc.: https://www.mediamatters.org/twitter/right-wing-misinformers-and-bad-actors-have-already-earned-tens-thousands-dollars-under
    Considering the impressions/reach of these people the figures sound astonishingly low. Barack Obama probably has earnt a few bucks from twitter too - though it'd be pocket change amongst his book sales revenue.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Excellent thinking!

    I hope the Tories choose true neolib believers for their next few leaders... Braverman followed by Rees-Mogg should see them consigned to the dustbin of history by 2030.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    I think that this is a warning against complacency by Kellner as well as an old Blairite's nostalgia for the days when everything seemed possible. If Labour win comfortably he will justify it as such. If its close he gets to say I told you so. Its win win for him and a smart piece of positioning but I am not sure it tells us much about the next election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    He's now paying mainly right wing posters with a large following an ad revenue share.
    I'm not clear how this will help the finances.
    That claims says more about your information bubble than about Twitter or Musk. Do you have any evidence that ad revenue payouts are going mainly to right wing posters?
    What happened is that a lot of left-liberal political commentators refused to pay for Twitter Blue when it started, so now they’re complaining about being left out of the payments, and writing articles in the MSM about Twitter supporting only “the far right”. The reality is that the payments have gone to people with all sorts of opinions, so long as they paid the subscription that included the monetisation features.
    Do you think Twitter should be giving money to white supremacists and anti-vaxxers?
    For example?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    Nigelb said:

    U.K. formally joins CPTPP to little fanfare and low expectations
    Malaysia stands to gain from free palm oil exports but few other benefits seen
    https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/U.K.-formally-joins-CPTPP-to-little-fanfare-and-low-expectations
    ..."The impact appears mainly cosmetic, for the U.K. to show it made a trade deal after Brexit," said Chris Devonshire-Ellis, chairman of Dezan Shira & Associates, an advisory firm that works with investors across Asia. "No one in Asia is taking the pact very seriously."..

    ..."We are using our status as an independent trading nation to join an exciting, growing, forward-looking trade bloc, which will help grow the U.K. economy and build on the hundreds of thousands of jobs CPTPP-owned businesses already support up and down the country," according to a statement released by the U.K. Department for Business and Trade, citing Trade Secretary Kemi Badenoch, who backed the U.K. to leave the EU.

    More desperate spin by the government . It really is the mother of all turd polishing exercises .
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.

    A man with 1 watch always knows the time. A man with 2 is never sure.

    A man with 3 ???
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Belief in the “blob” is also what will see the Tories in opposition for over a decade. Why adopt a theory the conclusion of which is that you are impotent and bad at your job? I think voters are more interested in political parties that will say they can get things done than political parties that whine that everyone’s against them.
    The Telegraph highlighted this example yesterday, of a quango who are doing their best to undermine housebuilding.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/07/15/natural-england-block-new-homes-ulez-zones-ltns/

    New housing is being blocked unless councillors agree to introduce green schemes such as Ulez and low-traffic neighbourhoods, in an approach that the environment watchdog is preparing to roll out across the country.

    “Natural England, which is already accused of blocking up to 145,000 homes, has commissioned a review of “mitigation measures” that could be used to limit emissions associated with new properties in the vicinity of more than 330 designated areas across the country.

    “The approach is already under way in the Epping Forest district of Essex, where the local council has sparked anger among residents by drawing up plans to introduce a Ulez-style “clean air zone” from 2025, under which cars and other vehicles would be charged each time they enter the area.

    “The council said it had been “advised by Natural England, as the responsible statutory body”, that it would be unable to approve new developments unless it simultaneously introduced measures to control air pollution in the area.”


    Now if only we had some posters here who live in Epping?
    Natural England is a government body. If it’s not working as it should, then that’s the responsibility of the Minister in charge, Thérèse Coffey. The solution is to vote out Coffey and her party.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831
    edited July 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Belief in the “blob” is also what will see the Tories in opposition for over a decade. Why adopt a theory the conclusion of which is that you are impotent and bad at your job? I think voters are more interested in political parties that will say they can get things done than political parties that whine that everyone’s against them.
    The Telegraph highlighted this example yesterday, of a quango who are doing their best to undermine housebuilding.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2023/07/15/natural-england-block-new-homes-ulez-zones-ltns/

    New housing is being blocked unless councillors agree to introduce green schemes such as Ulez and low-traffic neighbourhoods, in an approach that the environment watchdog is preparing to roll out across the country.

    “Natural England, which is already accused of blocking up to 145,000 homes, has commissioned a review of “mitigation measures” that could be used to limit emissions associated with new properties in the vicinity of more than 330 designated areas across the country.

    “The approach is already under way in the Epping Forest district of Essex, where the local council has sparked anger among residents by drawing up plans to introduce a Ulez-style “clean air zone” from 2025, under which cars and other vehicles would be charged each time they enter the area.

    “The council said it had been “advised by Natural England, as the responsible statutory body”, that it would be unable to approve new developments unless it simultaneously introduced measures to control air pollution in the area.”


    Now if only we had some posters here who live in Epping?
    Agency does its job as required by Government is news?

    Any planninbg application is checked off by the agencies and departments in local and national government to check its fit to policies as set by national government.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.


    Good breakfast at 93.

    I imagine he gets so much per Speedmaster.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779

    On Topic I concur with PK

    Please save this prediction for GE 2024

    Lab 40%
    Con 35%

    Hung Parliament

    LAB 44%
    CON 34%

    Lab majority of 40, assisted by tactical voting and Scottish recovery.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    He's now paying mainly right wing posters with a large following an ad revenue share.
    I'm not clear how this will help the finances.
    That claims says more about your information bubble than about Twitter or Musk. Do you have any evidence that ad revenue payouts are going mainly to right wing posters?
    What happened is that a lot of left-liberal political commentators refused to pay for Twitter Blue when it started, so now they’re complaining about being left out of the payments, and writing articles in the MSM about Twitter supporting only “the far right”. The reality is that the payments have gone to people with all sorts of opinions, so long as they paid the subscription that included the monetisation features.
    Do you think Twitter should be giving money to white supremacists and anti-vaxxers?
    For example?
    https://www.mediamatters.org/twitter/right-wing-misinformers-and-bad-actors-have-already-earned-tens-thousands-dollars-under
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,126
    Miklosvar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Your first sentence is the bedrock on which Trussism was built. Not an option ATM.
    It really scares me how so many of the non-private sector middle classes seem to think the state owes them.

    I suspect a healthy dose of reality will be dealt to Britain in the coming decade. I suspect it will end up in a high tax, unemployment heavy incumbent Labour government losing to a low tax, live within our means neo-Thatcherite.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831
    Scott_xP said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.

    A man with 1 watch always knows the time. A man with 2 is never sure.

    A man with 3 ???
    All the best navigation systems are triple. So you know which is dud if one goes down.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Selby and Ainsty is the test for Labour. Win that and they're well on their way.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    On Topic I concur with PK

    Please save this prediction for GE 2024

    Lab 40%
    Con 35%

    Hung Parliament

    Prediction for GE

    Lab 44%
    Con 29%
    I am thinking similar but it's worth remembering that 29% would be the worst Con GE result on record; worse even than 1832.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1832_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,577
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    The problem was that the industrial users were on Tweetdeck, not on Twitter and not seeing any adverts. Hence now restricting that service to those paying Twitter directly.

    I know Musk doesn’t understand advertising, which is why he hired an advertising exec and is getting revenue directly from users.
    Let's run some figures. In 2021, Twitter made $4.6 billion from advertising. (1)

    Let's say the subscription costs $8 a month, or ~$100 a year.

    Let's also say advertising revenue has halved to $2.3 billion.

    To make up that 'lost' $2.3 billion, you would need 23 million subscribers, as you make Twitter less appealing to non-subscribers. And have to service a humongous debt. And now pay put to 'large' tweeters.

    That's a big ask, for something that was free before.

    (1): https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/twitter-ad-revenue
    Agree that 23m is a lot of $100 paid subscribers, and that they’re probably at around 10% of that at the moment.

    On the other side, there are a few thousand coprorate accounts that are paying $10k a month, and they’ve lost 5k staff, which at $100k each is $500m.

    It’s a long way to sustainability, but they are slowly getting there.
    I'd like to see evidence for those numbers, please. They're definitely going *somewhere*, but it's far from clear if it's towards 'sustainability' or towards financial crisis.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    148grss said:

    If current polling is to believed, the current Tory ceiling is around 30% and the current Labour ceiling is around 50% - that to me suggests Labour will be in government no matter what.

    I guess in my mind is how obvious a Tory loss looks. If Tory destruction seems clear, I wonder what effect that will have on squeeze messaging. If you live in a seat that could potentially go LD or Green, for example, and you're a left of centre voter who looks at SKS and sighs, I can see a few weird outcomes where overperformance happens.

    I also don't really get how SKS makes the base / left leaning voter excited. Like, Sunak just offered a higher wage increase that Labour said they would allow. If Labour keep that kind of line then a large number of voters / unions could just decide to publicly tell him to fuck off. It's a conversation I've often had with people who want the Tories out, but don't see any respite from the Labour party - what is the point of voting out Tories if you'll get similar or even potentially worse outcomes with Labour anyway?

    I'm close enough to have a reasonable view of what's happening. Even in current circumstances, any Government has scope to pursue 2-3 things that cost money (within reason) - the Tories seem to be deciding that abolishing IHT is going to be one of theirs. IMO Labour is currently lowering expectations in a range of areas that they don't expect to be one of those 2-3. For obvious reasons, the 2-3 will be unveiled close to the election, and the hope will be that left-wing non-partisan voters will feel "OK, the range of policies isn't what I'd like, but those are enough for me to feel there's genuine progress in store." One of them should be quite controversial, to stir up debate on it - as with the minimum wage in 1997.

    In addition, there is a range of second-rank progressive policies (such as addorable housing on lower-quality green belt) which don't involve money in store which look like getting the green light. I don't think you'll feel totally cheesed off when it comes to it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,577
    As a matter of interest, has anyone on PB paid for Twitter?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,956
    edited July 2023
    Miklosvar said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.


    Good breakfast at 93.

    I imagine he gets so much per Speedmaster.
    Assuming one of them went on mission so is therefore worth a middling fortune.

    Slightly worried that he had to have his steak cut up for him, hoping not.

    Edit: I read Aldrin’s moon Speedmaster went missing when sent to the NAS museum in 1971, so not one of those.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,126
    Pulpstar said:

    Selby and Ainsty is the test for Labour. Win that and they're well on their way.

    Totally agree.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    algarkirk said:

    On Topic I concur with PK

    Please save this prediction for GE 2024

    Lab 40%
    Con 35%

    Hung Parliament

    I should think quite a lot of people from a range of political positions would welcome a Lab/LD coalition as by far the closest thing available to a modest, loyal and decent government with moderate progressive convictions for whom we could could have some respect.
    Represents Tory austerity with a continuation of the failed neo liberalism we have had since 1979

    Whats not to like
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,126

    On Topic I concur with PK

    Please save this prediction for GE 2024

    Lab 40%
    Con 35%

    Hung Parliament

    Prediction for GE

    Lab 44%
    Con 29%
    I am thinking similar but it's worth remembering that 29% would be the worst Con GE result on record; worse even than 1832.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1832_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Wouldn't surprise me.

    Apart from sitting and wannabe councillors, the Tory membership in these parts seem to have gone on strike. I can't see them turning out to help Sunak and Hunt, the two people they've explicitly rejected in recent leadership elections.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553

    algarkirk said:

    On Topic I concur with PK

    Please save this prediction for GE 2024

    Lab 40%
    Con 35%

    Hung Parliament

    I should think quite a lot of people from a range of political positions would welcome a Lab/LD coalition as by far the closest thing available to a modest, loyal and decent government with moderate progressive convictions for whom we could could have some respect.
    Represents Tory austerity with a continuation of the failed neo liberalism we have had since 1979

    Whats not to like
    Why would a Lab/LD coalition represent Tory austerity?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.


    Do they keep time with each other?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    .
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Belief in the “blob” is also what will see the Tories in opposition for over a decade. Why adopt a theory the conclusion of which is that you are impotent and bad at your job? I think voters are more interested in political parties that will say they can get things done than political parties that whine that everyone’s against them.
    Because it isn't theory.

    Anyone who has ever worked in/encountered a government department can see the obvious institutional resistance.

    What makes this government unique that makes the very non-unique phenomenon of institutional resistance to change an excuse for their failures ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Mortimer said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Your first sentence is the bedrock on which Trussism was built. Not an option ATM.
    It really scares me how so many of the non-private sector middle classes seem to think the state owes them.

    I suspect a healthy dose of reality will be dealt to Britain in the coming decade. I suspect it will end up in a high tax, unemployment heavy incumbent Labour government losing to a low tax, live within our means neo-Thatcherite.
    'Live within our means' would be a marked departure for the Conservatives.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Pulpstar said:

    Selby and Ainsty is the test for Labour. Win that and they're well on their way.

    What would it say if Labour won Selby but didn’t win in Uxbridge?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Pulpstar said:

    Selby and Ainsty is the test for Labour. Win that and they're well on their way.

    What would it say if Labour won Selby but didn’t win in Uxbridge?
    A degree of Conservative strength in outer London I suppose. I'd be surprised if that happened mind, though they did hold Old Bexley? a while back comfortably.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    Miklosvar said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.


    Good breakfast at 93.

    I imagine he gets so much per Speedmaster.
    Assuming one of them went on mission so is therefore worth a middling fortune.

    Slightly worried that he had to have his steak cut up for him, hoping not.
    I meant sponsorship from Omega but, yes, if he has 3 equally well worn examples of the relevant model that's 3 potential One True Grails.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    He's now paying mainly right wing posters with a large following an ad revenue share.
    I'm not clear how this will help the finances.
    That claims says more about your information bubble than about Twitter or Musk. Do you have any evidence that ad revenue payouts are going mainly to right wing posters?
    I would be wary about describing a list on Reddit as "evidence", but here is a list in spreadsheet form.

    https://i.redd.it/yu707l1oc3cb1.png
    https://www.reddit.com/r/EnoughMuskSpam/comments/1506jpi/the_absolute_state_of_the_people_elon_is_paying/
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831
    Miklosvar said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.


    Good breakfast at 93.

    I imagine he gets so much per Speedmaster.
    Assuming one of them went on mission so is therefore worth a middling fortune.

    Slightly worried that he had to have his steak cut up for him, hoping not.
    I meant sponsorship from Omega but, yes, if he has 3 equally well worn examples of the relevant model that's 3 potential One True Grails.
    Maybe it's his birthday and he got three so had to wear them all so as not to upset anyone.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.

    A man with 1 watch always knows the time. A man with 2 is never sure.

    A man with 3 ???
    All the best navigation systems are triple. So you know which is dud if one goes down.
    coughcougassumingindependencecoughcough
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    As a matter of interest, has anyone on PB paid for Twitter?

    I asked this the other day, and the answer seems to be no.

    Personally, the thing I most object to about New Twitter is that engagement is the consequence of either (a) being famous, or (b) paying up.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Mortimer said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Your first sentence is the bedrock on which Trussism was built. Not an option ATM.
    It really scares me how so many of the non-private sector middle classes seem to think the state owes them.

    I suspect a healthy dose of reality will be dealt to Britain in the coming decade. I suspect it will end up in a high tax, unemployment heavy incumbent Labour government losing to a low tax, live within our means neo-Thatcherite.
    How do you think France has survived these past 50 years? Or Germany? Or The Netherlands? Or Sweden?

    If you go to those countries they have their problems for sure but compared with the UK, France for example is hardly a failed state.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,126
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Belief in the “blob” is also what will see the Tories in opposition for over a decade. Why adopt a theory the conclusion of which is that you are impotent and bad at your job? I think voters are more interested in political parties that will say they can get things done than political parties that whine that everyone’s against them.
    Because it isn't theory.

    Anyone who has ever worked in/encountered a government department can see the obvious institutional resistance.

    What makes this government unique that makes the very non-unique phenomenon of institutional resistance to change an excuse for their failures ?
    I'm not excusing this Govt. I think they're hopeless and will get the thrashing they deserve.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,126

    Mortimer said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Your first sentence is the bedrock on which Trussism was built. Not an option ATM.
    It really scares me how so many of the non-private sector middle classes seem to think the state owes them.

    I suspect a healthy dose of reality will be dealt to Britain in the coming decade. I suspect it will end up in a high tax, unemployment heavy incumbent Labour government losing to a low tax, live within our means neo-Thatcherite.
    'Live within our means' would be a marked departure for the Conservatives.
    And isn't going to happen under Labour either.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    algarkirk said:

    On Topic I concur with PK

    Please save this prediction for GE 2024

    Lab 40%
    Con 35%

    Hung Parliament

    I should think quite a lot of people from a range of political positions would welcome a Lab/LD coalition as by far the closest thing available to a modest, loyal and decent government with moderate progressive convictions for whom we could could have some respect.
    Represents Tory austerity with a continuation of the failed neo liberalism we have had since 1979

    Whats not to like
    Venezuelan refugees from socialism up to 7 million or so.

    Would have thought that a petrostate with 20 years of the world's smartest ideology could gave overtaken the USA.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.


    Good breakfast at 93.

    I imagine he gets so much per Speedmaster.
    Assuming one of them went on mission so is therefore worth a middling fortune.

    Slightly worried that he had to have his steak cut up for him, hoping not.
    I meant sponsorship from Omega but, yes, if he has 3 equally well worn examples of the relevant model that's 3 potential One True Grails.
    Maybe it's his birthday and he got three so had to wear them all so as not to upset anyone.
    Maybe he pinched Armstrong's and Collins' watches?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831
    edited July 2023
    viewcode said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.

    A man with 1 watch always knows the time. A man with 2 is never sure.

    A man with 3 ???
    All the best navigation systems are triple. So you know which is dud if one goes down.
    coughcougassumingindependencecoughcough
    Quite, including different programming. The watches do look different to my eyes.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    He's now paying mainly right wing posters with a large following an ad revenue share.
    I'm not clear how this will help the finances.
    That claims says more about your information bubble than about Twitter or Musk. Do you have any evidence that ad revenue payouts are going mainly to right wing posters?
    What happened is that a lot of left-liberal political commentators refused to pay for Twitter Blue when it started, so now they’re complaining about being left out of the payments, and writing articles in the MSM about Twitter supporting only “the far right”. The reality is that the payments have gone to people with all sorts of opinions, so long as they paid the subscription that included the monetisation features.
    Do you think Twitter should be giving money to white supremacists and anti-vaxxers?
    For example?
    https://www.mediamatters.org/twitter/right-wing-misinformers-and-bad-actors-have-already-earned-tens-thousands-dollars-under
    Should a left-wing hate-group like Media Matters, be the arbiter of who is allowed to be paid by Twitter?

    Looking at their actual list, the names are mostly middle-of-the-road conservative and libertarian commentators, with a lot of guilt-by-association.

    The only one I really don’t like is Andrew Tate, and he has way more things to worry about right now than a $20k cheque from Twitter.

    On the general point, if Twitter sets up a creator monetisation programme, then no they shouldn’t kick people out of it because of their political views.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,126

    Mortimer said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Your first sentence is the bedrock on which Trussism was built. Not an option ATM.
    It really scares me how so many of the non-private sector middle classes seem to think the state owes them.

    I suspect a healthy dose of reality will be dealt to Britain in the coming decade. I suspect it will end up in a high tax, unemployment heavy incumbent Labour government losing to a low tax, live within our means neo-Thatcherite.
    How do you think France has survived these past 50 years? Or Germany? Or The Netherlands? Or Sweden?

    If you go to those countries they have their problems for sure but compared with the UK, France for example is hardly a failed state.
    Given the riots this past month, I think you might have to revise that idea.

  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    As a matter of interest, has anyone on PB paid for Twitter?

    No

    But I was thinking about the "Ho ho sucker, you are the product when you use google and Facebook" line and I have decided I am very happy to be the product. I am watching ad-supported TV for the first time for 20 years and the ads are so nauseating, patronising, twee and witless that I have to leave the room for them. Viagra and dog food are perhaps the worst. Whereas google and facebook know in great detail what I want to have advertised to me, and serve me ads for bikes and bits of bikes (among other less easily admitted interests) which actually enhance my life, and quite often bring me things which I would otherwise have to go to the trouble of searching for.

    Mind you twitter and reddit are both useless at this, they think everyone is an IT admin judging by the ads they serve.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Mortimer said:

    On Topic I concur with PK

    Please save this prediction for GE 2024

    Lab 40%
    Con 35%

    Hung Parliament

    Prediction for GE

    Lab 44%
    Con 29%
    I am thinking similar but it's worth remembering that 29% would be the worst Con GE result on record; worse even than 1832.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1832_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Wouldn't surprise me.

    Apart from sitting and wannabe councillors, the Tory membership in these parts seem to have gone on strike. I can't see them turning out to help Sunak and Hunt, the two people they've explicitly rejected in recent leadership elections.
    Inclined to agree. I live in a ward which, given normal circumstances, is Conservative. At the last election to Independence were elected, and the well-known and well thought of Conservative candidate lost.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,577

    Miklosvar said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.


    Good breakfast at 93.

    I imagine he gets so much per Speedmaster.
    Assuming one of them went on mission so is therefore worth a middling fortune.

    Slightly worried that he had to have his steak cut up for him, hoping not.

    Edit: I read Aldrin’s moon Speedmaster went missing when sent to the NAS museum in 1971, so not one of those.
    “See you need an odd number (of watches) in case there is a discrepancy so you can sort out which one is what,” Aldrin explains.

    https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/buzz-aldrin-rocking-three-omega-watches-at-once
    https://www.christopherwardforum.com/other-brands/buzz-aldrin-s-watches-t26712.html
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831
    EPG said:

    algarkirk said:

    On Topic I concur with PK

    Please save this prediction for GE 2024

    Lab 40%
    Con 35%

    Hung Parliament

    I should think quite a lot of people from a range of political positions would welcome a Lab/LD coalition as by far the closest thing available to a modest, loyal and decent government with moderate progressive convictions for whom we could could have some respect.
    Represents Tory austerity with a continuation of the failed neo liberalism we have had since 1979

    Whats not to like
    Venezuelan refugees from socialism up to 7 million or so.

    Would have thought that a petrostate with 20 years of the world's smartest ideology could gave overtaken the USA.
    You mean, like the UK under Mrs T and her successors?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,695
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Selby and Ainsty is the test for Labour. Win that and they're well on their way.

    What would it say if Labour won Selby but didn’t win in Uxbridge?
    A degree of Conservative strength in outer London I suppose. I'd be surprised if that happened mind, though they did hold Old Bexley? a while back comfortably.
    Yes, around the same time they lost North Shropshire.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Conservatives ought to approve.

    Joe Biden is redefining presidential campaign frugality
    The president spent less than some Senate candidates. He had just four people on payroll.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/16/joe-biden-campaign-funding-00106503
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Nigelb said:

    Conservatives ought to approve.

    Joe Biden is redefining presidential campaign frugality
    The president spent less than some Senate candidates. He had just four people on payroll.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/16/joe-biden-campaign-funding-00106503

    So he’s not running then, and we’re waiting for when he announces he’s not running.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Scott_xP said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.

    A man with 1 watch always knows the time. A man with 2 is never sure.

    A man with 3 ???
    Has a time for every purpose.

    1. Local legal time - because people will keep on making laws to mess about with time, and then the people who schedule trains and planes will insist on using that legal time.

    2. UTC - Because it would be crazy if your servers were set to use any other time. You're not going to have your servers change their time with daylight savings. Why would you want to deal with that hassle? Oh please don't tell me you've done that. Why do people do that?

    3. Local mean solar time - because knowing the time when the sun is near its zenith could actually be useful, and this time would avoid discontinuities in the seasonal changes in sunrise/sunset times caused by putting clocks forward and back an hour.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Note too the latest gold Standard Survation poll on preferred PM only has it Starmer 38% Sunak 36%
    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1678426099716333570?s=20
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,831
    edited July 2023

    Scott_xP said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.

    A man with 1 watch always knows the time. A man with 2 is never sure.

    A man with 3 ???
    Has a time for every purpose.

    1. Local legal time - because people will keep on making laws to mess about with time, and then the people who schedule trains and planes will insist on using that legal time.

    2. UTC - Because it would be crazy if your servers were set to use any other time. You're not going to have your servers change their time with daylight savings. Why would you want to deal with that hassle? Oh please don't tell me you've done that. Why do people do that?

    3. Local mean solar time - because knowing the time when the sun is near its zenith could actually be useful, and this time would avoid discontinuities in the seasonal changes in sunrise/sunset times caused by putting clocks forward and back an hour.
    Be very useful for a Christchurch don at Oxford who was a pilot. The College clock and bell still run to solar time, not this new-fangled railway time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Tres said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Selby and Ainsty is the test for Labour. Win that and they're well on their way.

    What would it say if Labour won Selby but didn’t win in Uxbridge?
    A degree of Conservative strength in outer London I suppose. I'd be surprised if that happened mind, though they did hold Old Bexley? a while back comfortably.
    Yes, around the same time they lost North Shropshire.
    Against the LDs, the LD by election machine is like a Rolls Royce, the Labour by election machine more a second hand Ford
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.


    Good breakfast at 93.

    I imagine he gets so much per Speedmaster.
    Assuming one of them went on mission so is therefore worth a middling fortune.

    Slightly worried that he had to have his steak cut up for him, hoping not.
    I meant sponsorship from Omega but, yes, if he has 3 equally well worn examples of the relevant model that's 3 potential One True Grails.
    Maybe it's his birthday and he got three so had to wear them all so as not to upset anyone.
    It is Apollo 11 launch day, Y+54. He was born Jan 20 1930.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2023

    Pulpstar said:

    Selby and Ainsty is the test for Labour. Win that and they're well on their way.

    What would it say if Labour won Selby but didn’t win in Uxbridge?
    Blair won Selby but lost Uxbridge in 1997. ULEZ also a factor in Uxbridge and the Labour candidate in Uxbridge a Camden councillor (albeit born in Hillingdon) while the Labour candidate in Selby grew up near the area
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293

    Pulpstar said:

    Selby and Ainsty is the test for Labour. Win that and they're well on their way.

    What would it say if Labour won Selby but didn’t win in Uxbridge?
    Khan gets the blame. Expect lots of briefings against him in the press by Starmer's office.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,214
    HYUFD said:

    Note too the latest gold Standard Survation poll on preferred PM only has it Starmer 38% Sunak 36%
    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1678426099716333570?s=20

    See the number of don't knows. Many (unbelievably) still don't who Starmer is and many are sitting on their hands sulking because Johnson has gone.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    rcs1000 said:

    As a matter of interest, has anyone on PB paid for Twitter?

    I asked this the other day, and the answer seems to be no.

    Personally, the thing I most object to about New Twitter is that engagement is the consequence of either (a) being famous, or (b) paying up.
    The interesting thing for me is that even as my use of Twitter declines (Musk has systematically killed almost every platform I used to read it) my follower count keeps going up. I am on some list somewhere so every couple of days I get a new follower. As far as I can tell, almost all of them are strippers...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Conservatives ought to approve.

    Joe Biden is redefining presidential campaign frugality
    The president spent less than some Senate candidates. He had just four people on payroll.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/16/joe-biden-campaign-funding-00106503

    So he’s not running then, and we’re waiting for when he announces he’s not running.
    Lol. No He just has the Democrat machine working for him.

    Unlike Obama, Biden enjoys a flush DNC — and his campaign is leaning on the national party heavily in this early stage of the election. The goal, according to Biden advisers, is to run an efficient operation that spreads costs across the board. The DNC has more than 300 staff members, an aide said, and the organization’s communications, fundraising and research teams are particularly involved in Biden’s reelection. The DNC’s technology infrastructure and organizing aides are also playing a key role.

    Biden’s campaign, the DNC, and their joint-fundraising committees announced Friday that they raised more than $72 million combined in the second quarter of the year. Jeffrey Katzenberg, Biden’s campaign co-chair, said that number proves that the team’s frugal approach is the correct one.


    According to Toby Young Biden was going to drop out the weekend just gone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Miklosvar said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.


    Good breakfast at 93.

    I imagine he gets so much per Speedmaster.
    Assuming one of them went on mission so is therefore worth a middling fortune.

    Slightly worried that he had to have his steak cut up for him, hoping not.
    I meant sponsorship from Omega but, yes, if he has 3 equally well worn examples of the relevant model that's 3 potential One True Grails.
    Maybe it's his birthday and he got three so had to wear them all so as not to upset anyone.
    It is Apollo 11 launch day, Y+54. He was born Jan 20 1930.
    One for each of his ex wives, then.

    He is an interesting character.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,214
    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    As a matter of interest, has anyone on PB paid for Twitter?

    I asked this the other day, and the answer seems to be no.

    Personally, the thing I most object to about New Twitter is that engagement is the consequence of either (a) being famous, or (b) paying up.
    The interesting thing for me is that even as my use of Twitter declines (Musk has systematically killed almost every platform I used to read it) my follower count keeps going up. I am on some list somewhere so every couple of days I get a new follower. As far as I can tell, almost all of them are strippers...
    Now that's boasting.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited July 2023
    a) Twitter remains excellent for incident, on the spot reporting - plenty of footage of when shots were fired at any or several high profile such events these past months and years (eg Fishmongers Hall)
    b) It is ok but just ok for A N Expert's 1-29/29 thread explanation of something or other (most recently this morning the parallels between Brexit and US prohibition, albeit I think childbirth is a better analogy).
    c) It is useless for anything else.

    But perhaps that's because I'm old. Old enough to be on facebook. And old enough to use google to find proper articles on proper subjects.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Belief in the “blob” is also what will see the Tories in opposition for over a decade. Why adopt a theory the conclusion of which is that you are impotent and bad at your job? I think voters are more interested in political parties that will say they can get things done than political parties that whine that everyone’s against them.
    Because it isn't theory.

    Anyone who has ever worked in/encountered a government department can see the obvious institutional resistance.

    All institutions have a certain degree of momentum that takes time to change. It is a leader’s job to achieve that change, to convince people of the need for a new direction and rally support for their solution. There are dozens of books on change management if any of this is confusing for Tory MPs.

    The Conservatives have been in power for 13 years. If that wasn’t enough time to turn the supertanker around… well, what’s the point of voting in Conservatives if they can’t do anything after over a decade in charge? Vote for us: we’re unable to get anything done — not a great rallying cry.
    Yes

    There is always institutional policy - if for no other reason that people herd together.

    Changing the institutional policy is what leadership is about. Margaret Thatcher was very good at this.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    On topic, I think people will be super-weary of Lab if only because the Cons don't seem to be able to shake off the "natural party of government" tag, despite having a bloody good go at it.

    If there was a "coalition" option on the ballot paper I would forecast a 649-0 landslide.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    2. UTC - Because it would be crazy if your servers were set to use any other time. You're not going to have your servers change their time with daylight savings. Why would you want to deal with that hassle? Oh please don't tell me you've done that. Why do people do that?

    Cos the CIO lives on the East Coast US...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,892
    Andy_JS said:
    What is the penalty for shoplifting without a licence?
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Pulpstar said:

    Selby and Ainsty is the test for Labour. Win that and they're well on their way.

    Had a chat with a Lab canvasser yesterday - we're at the end of a run and not far from her house, so she was in no rush. I'd stated we'd already voted Labour* so no real incentive to give any spin. Her assessment was it's pretty close; still some hostility to Labour, mostly on culture war issues and a bit on EU, but much more fertile ground than e.g. 2019 or even recent council elections. Some Con supporters saying they'll sit it out but won't vote Labour. She thought it could go either way, but they had a good chance and were throwing everything at it. Her biggest concern is that people weren't that fired up, even Labour supporters, to actually get out and vote. Some said they'd have come out to stick it to Johnson (post the Covid party revelations) or Truss, but are not that fired in opposition to Sunak.

    Caveats - no idea how informed she was, but I have seen her canvassing for Lab in previous elections (and had a chat once before) so could be fairly well connected in the local party.

    I'm remaining out of this, having cashed in my original Labour lay, but I do agree with the header over the weekend that there might be ore value in Con now (although most likely as a 'value' loser, which is why I've kept out)

    *a lie on my part (well, I said "we've already voted by post and voted for Labour" - first part is true and my wife did vote Labour, so second bit arguably true) too so if others are also lying then her information will be suspect anyway
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Mortimer said:

    On Topic I concur with PK

    Please save this prediction for GE 2024

    Lab 40%
    Con 35%

    Hung Parliament

    Prediction for GE

    Lab 44%
    Con 29%
    I am thinking similar but it's worth remembering that 29% would be the worst Con GE result on record; worse even than 1832.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1832_United_Kingdom_general_election
    Wouldn't surprise me.

    Apart from sitting and wannabe councillors, the Tory membership in these parts seem to have gone on strike. I can't see them turning out to help Sunak and Hunt, the two people they've explicitly rejected in recent leadership elections.
    The vast majority of Tory voters are not Tory members of course. Also, the vast majority of voters in a GE will have no contact with any activists. So I doubt the apathy of activists will make much difference in itself.

    The apathy of regular Tory voters though... that's a different matter; Con voter abstention could see them drop below 30%.
  • Simon_PeachSimon_Peach Posts: 424
    HYUFD said:

    Tres said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Selby and Ainsty is the test for Labour. Win that and they're well on their way.

    What would it say if Labour won Selby but didn’t win in Uxbridge?
    A degree of Conservative strength in outer London I suppose. I'd be surprised if that happened mind, though they did hold Old Bexley? a while back comfortably.
    Yes, around the same time they lost North Shropshire.
    Against the LDs, the LD by election machine is like a Rolls Royce, the Labour by election machine more a second hand Ford
    Oh dear, that’s two egregious errors today: “Rolls Royce” and “Rolls-Royces”… it’s Rolls-Royce, always a hyphen and never plural*

    * beaten into me when working in Rolls-Royce PR department on my sandwich placement.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2023

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Excellent thinking!

    I hope the Tories choose true neolib believers for their next few leaders... Braverman followed by Rees-Mogg should see them consigned to the dustbin of history by 2030.
    People said the same of Labour under Ed Miliband and Corbyn, in 2017 Corbyn nearly won. If the economy is poor anything can happen like the 1970s
  • TresTres Posts: 2,695
    TOPPING said:

    a) Twitter remains excellent for incident, on the spot reporting - plenty of footage of when shots were fired at any or several high profile such events these past months and years (eg Fishmongers Hall)
    b) It is ok but just ok for A N Expert's 1/29 thread explanation of something or other (most recently this morning the parallels between Brexit and US prohibition, albeit I think childbirth is a better analogy).
    c) It is useless for anything else.

    But perhaps that's because I'm old. Old enough to be on facebook. And old enough to use google to find proper articles on proper subjects.

    I only use twitter to keep an eye on what local politicians are up to and to follow football scores when I'm out doing stuff. The second feature became quite useless when Musk started buggering around with the order posts display.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,577
    Nigelb said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Carnyx said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Posted for no other reason than it shows a dude living his best 3 wristwatches life.


    Good breakfast at 93.

    I imagine he gets so much per Speedmaster.
    Assuming one of them went on mission so is therefore worth a middling fortune.

    Slightly worried that he had to have his steak cut up for him, hoping not.
    I meant sponsorship from Omega but, yes, if he has 3 equally well worn examples of the relevant model that's 3 potential One True Grails.
    Maybe it's his birthday and he got three so had to wear them all so as not to upset anyone.
    It is Apollo 11 launch day, Y+54. He was born Jan 20 1930.
    One for each of his ex wives, then.

    He is an interesting character.
    I've read his book 'Magnificent Desolation', and he is an interesting character. He was massively drive by his father's expectations, and going to the Moon made his fame, but destroyed his career.

    If you want to read about the Apollo 11 landing, then Collins' "Carrying the Fire" is excellent.

    If you want to read about the way worldwide fame destroyed someone, then 'Magnificent Desolation' is equally excellent. Just don't expect to learn much about space from it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Conservatives ought to approve.

    Joe Biden is redefining presidential campaign frugality
    The president spent less than some Senate candidates. He had just four people on payroll.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/16/joe-biden-campaign-funding-00106503

    So he’s not running then, and we’re waiting for when he announces he’s not running.
    Lol. No He just has the Democrat machine working for him.

    Unlike Obama, Biden enjoys a flush DNC — and his campaign is leaning on the national party heavily in this early stage of the election. The goal, according to Biden advisers, is to run an efficient operation that spreads costs across the board. The DNC has more than 300 staff members, an aide said, and the organization’s communications, fundraising and research teams are particularly involved in Biden’s reelection. The DNC’s technology infrastructure and organizing aides are also playing a key role.

    Biden’s campaign, the DNC, and their joint-fundraising committees announced Friday that they raised more than $72 million combined in the second quarter of the year. Jeffrey Katzenberg, Biden’s campaign co-chair, said that number proves that the team’s frugal approach is the correct one.


    According to Toby Young Biden was going to drop out the weekend just gone.
    Eh, surely it would make sense for a second-term Biden to have had the DNC put a lot of effort into regaining control of the House and retaining control of the Senate, so that he can pass stuff through Congress?

    I agree with Sandpit. This does look like a strong tell that Biden isn't going to run in 2024. The first time that I've doubted that he would. I can understand why he would want to delay announcing this as long as possible. He becomes a lame duck as soon as he announces he's not running, and the later he makes the announcement the more influence he has on selecting the eventual candidate.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    The problem was that the industrial users were on Tweetdeck, not on Twitter and not seeing any adverts. Hence now restricting that service to those paying Twitter directly.

    I know Musk doesn’t understand advertising, which is why he hired an advertising exec and is getting revenue directly from users.
    Let's run some figures. In 2021, Twitter made $4.6 billion from advertising. (1)

    Let's say the subscription costs $8 a month, or ~$100 a year.

    Let's also say advertising revenue has halved to $2.3 billion.

    To make up that 'lost' $2.3 billion, you would need 23 million subscribers, as you make Twitter less appealing to non-subscribers. And have to service a humongous debt. And now pay put to 'large' tweeters.

    That's a big ask, for something that was free before.

    (1): https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/twitter-ad-revenue
    Agree that 23m is a lot of $100 paid subscribers, and that they’re probably at around 10% of that at the moment.

    On the other side, there are a few thousand coprorate accounts that are paying $10k a month, and they’ve lost 5k staff, which at $100k each is $500m.

    It’s a long way to sustainability, but they are slowly getting there.
    I'd like to see evidence for those numbers, please. They're definitely going *somewhere*, but it's far from clear if it's towards 'sustainability' or towards financial crisis.
    One advantage of being a private company, is that they don’t need to release loads of numbers every quarter for everyone to pore through. Private company accounts are a much simpler exercise.

    I think they will recover, but it will take longer than they think it will. Meanwhile they’ve already cut a lot of cost out of the business and are diversifying revenue streams, but against that they have a lot more debt to finance, which will probably have to be exchanged for equity at some point. I reckon they’re about five years from a stable, profit-making company.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Conservatives ought to approve.

    Joe Biden is redefining presidential campaign frugality
    The president spent less than some Senate candidates. He had just four people on payroll.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/16/joe-biden-campaign-funding-00106503

    So he’s not running then, and we’re waiting for when he announces he’s not running.

    ...
    According to Toby Young Biden was going to drop out the weekend just gone.
    Well known US political pundit...

  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    That Sunak and Hunt are seen by Conservatives as insufficiently right wing is why Lady Starmer can go to the home furnishing department of John Lewis with some confidence, and should probably look to get something that's going to last a decent length of time.
    Sunak isn't from the left of the party. He only seems so now because the One Nation wing of the party was purged and the ERG are totally bonkers.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Plus every day matters. Which is also why we aren't going to see an early GE. Pain is at its most acute, mortgage rates spiking, inflation still harsh, strikes everywhere. Every week passing sees the possibility of some of these issues improving.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    The LE results were a clear suggestion to me that:

    a) Sunak's latest form of Tory Statism isn't popular
    b) CCHQ still don't realise this

    I'm personally looking forward to the left of the party getting smashed, so we can return to proper right of centre pro-growth Conservatism at the subsequent election.

    The belief that “Sunak was too left wing” is what will see the Conservatives in opposition for a decade.
    Historically we win when we're promoting small state, low tax platform.

    Sunak seems to be promoting big state, high tax.

    He is less popular than Boris Johnson (!) with people who voted Tory in 2019.

    Just because the blob and the media tolerate him, doesn't make him a winner. He couldn't even beat Truss, remember, and has epically failed at the first electoral test. Worse than CCHQ expectations lowering!
    Your first sentence is the bedrock on which Trussism was built. Not an option ATM.
    It really scares me how so many of the non-private sector middle classes seem to think the state owes them.

    I suspect a healthy dose of reality will be dealt to Britain in the coming decade. I suspect it will end up in a high tax, unemployment heavy incumbent Labour government losing to a low tax, live within our means neo-Thatcherite.
    How do you think France has survived these past 50 years? Or Germany? Or The Netherlands? Or Sweden?

    If you go to those countries they have their problems for sure but compared with the UK, France for example is hardly a failed state.
    Given the riots this past month, I think you might have to revise that idea.

    No, not really. I am looking at 50 years. Sure, France has had a rough few months but the country continues, basically a nice place to live, nicer than the UK in some respects, not quite as good in others. Pretty comparable overall despite not embracing small state, low-tax dogma.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,348
    A Labour win by 41 - 34% would be my best guess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited July 2023
    ydoethur said:

    This story is possible of interest too:

    Plan to crack down on 'rip-off' university degrees
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-66216005

    I hope that includes a commitment to phase out PPE at Oxford and the MA in Public Policy at Birkbeck. Given the vast amounts their graduates cost the nation they're definitely a rip off.

    Looks like both male and female creative arts graduates see a net fall in lifetime earnings after tax and loans on that chart. As do male graduates in social care and agriculture (albeit many of the latter will go on and takeover the family farm so it makes practical sense for them).

    Medicine and economics graduates see lifetime boosts to average earnings of a huge £300-£450k (PPE includes economics of course, indeed Rishi worked for Goldman Sachs initially rather than become a SPAD)

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sandpit said:

    hired an advertising industry heavyweight as the CEO.

    And apparently locked her in a room

    Trussk is still the face of the company and its increasingly annoying actions.

    Having killed all the 3rd party apps they have now killed Tweetdeck. Good news for those who don't like Tweets posted here...
    Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it.

    They’ve never made a profit, and were losing $128m a quarter before the takeover. There wasn’t a sustainable business there. https://investor.twitterinc.com/files/doc_financials/2022/q1/Final-Q1’22-earnings-release.pdf

    Yes, Musk and friends way overpaid, and are probably going to have to put a load more cash in at some point.
    "Because a business is unsustainable when millions of industrial-scale users are paying nothing for it."

    I don't pay anything directly for Google and Facebook. Obviously I pay indirectly, through advertising costs, but they're free to me as an end-user. They are both profitable because they understand their customers.

    The 'customers' are not you and me, but the advertisers. Now, ask yourself how Twitter can attract advertisers to a platform that in the name of 'free speech' allows anyone to say virtually anything. Where their ads might be served alongside (say) neo-Nazi comments.

    Which is another reason YouTube et al get 'overly censorious'.

    As I've said passim, Musk simply does not understand advertising.
    He's now paying mainly right wing posters with a large following an ad revenue share.
    I'm not clear how this will help the finances.
    That claims says more about your information bubble than about Twitter or Musk. Do you have any evidence that ad revenue payouts are going mainly to right wing posters?
    What happened is that a lot of left-liberal political commentators refused to pay for Twitter Blue when it started, so now they’re complaining about being left out of the payments, and writing articles in the MSM about Twitter supporting only “the far right”. The reality is that the payments have gone to people with all sorts of opinions, so long as they paid the subscription that included the monetisation features.
    Do you think Twitter should be giving money to white supremacists and anti-vaxxers?
    For example?
    https://www.mediamatters.org/twitter/right-wing-misinformers-and-bad-actors-have-already-earned-tens-thousands-dollars-under
    Should a left-wing hate-group like Media Matters, be the arbiter of who is allowed to be paid by Twitter?

    Looking at their actual list, the names are mostly middle-of-the-road conservative and libertarian commentators, with a lot of guilt-by-association.

    The only one I really don’t like is Andrew Tate, and he has way more things to worry about right now than a $20k cheque from Twitter.

    On the general point, if Twitter sets up a creator monetisation programme, then no they shouldn’t kick people out of it because of their political views.
    Whoever said Media Matters should be the arbiter? You wanted examples; we've given you examples.

    Do you think Twitter should be giving money to white supremacists and anti-vaxxers? Yes or no?

    Do you think it's a good thing that Jacob Creech, who started the Ukrainian biolabs conspiracy theory, has received thousands of dollars from Twitter for his actions?

    Do you think advertisers are going to flock to Twitter knowing that the money they pay is going to Tate, Creech etc.?
This discussion has been closed.