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Labour could be the main threat in Mid Beds – politicalbetting.com
Labour could be the main threat in Mid Beds – politicalbetting.com
My last article, arguing Labour are rightly favourite in Selby & Ainsty, provoked a very fair rebuttal from some commenters. The Tories may be vulnerable, but Labour are hardly a party with a history of by-election upsets. That’s what the Lib Dems are for.
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Or maybe lots of us are expecting large inheritances?
Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.
One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.
I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.
I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.
One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.
Courthouse News Service - Attorney in Kari Lake voting machine lawsuit hit with sanctions from judge
A federal judge didn’t buy Alan Dershowitz’s claims that he should be spared from sanctions given his limited role in the lawsuit, ordering him to pay more than $12,000 in attorney’s fees.
PHOENIX (CN) — A federal judge imposed sanctions on attorney Alan Dershowitz for his role in Kari Lake’s 2022 lawsuit aiming to ban the use of electronic voting machines in Arizona.
Despite playing what Dershowitz described as an extremely limited role in Lake’s suit against the Arizona secretary of state and supervisors of both Maricopa and Pima counties, U.S. District Judge John Tuchi ordered him to pay $12,220 in attorney’s fees to the Maricopa County defendants for breaking Rule 11, a federal law that holds attorneys accountable for making false or misleading allegations.
Dershowitz said he intended only to give legal advice to Lake’s team, not to represent her.
“In any event, Mr. Dershowitz’s subjective intent is not controlling at this stage,” Tuchi wrote in his Friday morning order. “As the court previously noted, compliance with Rule 11 is largely measured by an objective standard.” . . .
Tuchi dismissed Lake’s case this past August, deeming the claims “too speculative” to have legal standing." . . .
Dershowitz’s description of his involvement in the case clashed with how Lake represented it.
“I am listed as the Plaintiff along with AZ House Rep @RealMarkFinchem,” Lake tweeted after filing the complaint. “Legal heavyweight Alan Dershowitz will be representing us. @AlanDersh is a Liberal Democrat. All voters will benefit from the removal of these machines.”
In an episode of The Lindell Report about Lake’s lawsuit, host and conservative activist Mike Lindell called Dershowitz “one of the lead attorneys on this.” Lake didn’t correct him. . . .
“Whether Mr. Dershowitz signed, or intended to sign, those filings as ‘counsel’ or ‘attorney; or ‘of counsel,’ he signed them,” Tuchi wrote. “And he effectively conceded that he authorized his signature on these filings without investigating whether they were legally and factually sound.” . . .
Despite his clear actions in the case, Tuchi acknowledged Dershowitz’s “misguided” attempt to communicate his limited role, saying he believes when Dershowitz says he wasn’t fully aware that others represented him as playing a major role in the case. Tuchi also considered Dershowitz’s apology, writing that he doesn’t want to impose sanctions so severe as to deter other legal experts from providing advice in litigation for fear of sanctions.
So, Tuchi reduced Dershowitz’s fee to only 10% of Maricopa County’s total fees of $122,200.
Dershowitz said he plans to appeal the decision, and will take it to the U.S. Supreme Court if necessary. . . .
https://www.courthousenews.com/attorney-in-kari-lake-voting-machine-lawsuit-hit-with-sanctions-from-judge/
Correct.
Good piece Quincel, and I hope at least one of your bets comes in.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.
The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.
Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.
Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.
I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
It is The Open. There is no other.
Wash your mouth out....and good morning.
With occasional dips to 22-25% - which is hard core vote - when they fuck up especially.
This fades, and they go back to core vote.
Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
"We are not Amazon."
That was your catchphrase.
"Where's the buffet?"
That was your other one.
Keith's mum says,
Like your hairline
You have Ben and gone.
E.J. Thribb (Aged 17½)
Penny Dreadful's windage tray will be positively dripping at the thought of getting BB's job. Other hopefuls would be Shappsie and Jenricko.
Whatever anyone’s views on Mordaunt, I really hope she does get it rather than one of the other two.
At least she’s sane and not as far as we know guilty of repeatedly lying to Parliament.
She won’t though. Sunak will be nervous of giving her a higher profile role.
Daniel Storey
@danielstorey85
No spoilers, but this is the cleverest football advert I've ever seen.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1680210299629064192
British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
Lib 35.8
Lab 34.4
Tory 27.7
We have to move on and be real. The days of the likes of Peter Alliss (RIP) are over. There's a British Open and a US Open.
Should be an interesting one although I was sort-of hoping it blows a hooley at Hoylake, only because it's quite fun and it's what golfers regularly have to endure.
Mind you, if it had been these past few days I suspect play would have been suspended at times?
https://www.theopen.com/
The word 'British' isn't used once
It's The 151st Open
This explains the British Open v the Open
https://www.golfcompendium.com/2019/07/british-open-vs-open-championship.html
It’s the oldest tournament in golf.
Inheritance tax is not a good tax. It raises comparatively little and for a significant administrative burden at a point of distress. Moreover for many (most?) it will require the sale of the childhood home with all the emotions that arises. It’s also easy for the wealthy or well advised to sidestep.
But the idea of the fortunate few receiving a cascade of wealth sticks in the throat. The current balance - a significant amount tax free, the ability to protect the family home, and then a meaningful but not excessive contribution paid from the balance of the estate seems fair to most.
Abolition would not.
@Leon will be all over this for the threat of deep fakes in politics (not to mention this is partly what the Hollywood dispute is about). And he'd be right.
RFK Jr. denies comments on ‘ethnically targeted’ Covid-19 were anti-Semitic
The longshot presidential candidate suggested that the virus could have been engineered to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-covid-19-ethnically-targeted-00106478
And no, it couldn’t.
RFK Jr.’s secret fundraising success: Republicans
A POLITICO analysis shows donor overlap with DeSantis and Trump supporters.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-fundraising-republicans-00106481
The "family home" bit is tricky; I get the emotional point but so much (too much) British wealth is stored in piles of bricks. And if having a maiden aunt who leaves you their flat in Islington financially trumps almost anything you can do by working , that's not great for society.
LibDems aren’t going to collapse
Conservative core vote is 28% or so
The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
Personally, I tend towards the latter.
To my mothers generation (and before) you bought because
1) better to pay your own mortgage than someone else’s
2) after 20 years - free housing
3) no rent man
4) when you retired, with free accommodation, a small pension goes further.
The absurd prices are a function of deliberately not building enough homes for the population.
The irony is that Rossindell has been quite an assiduous Member of Parliament despite WFH.
https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11199/andrew_rosindell/romford
Which is why he's an idiot too.
By the way, I was very disappointed to see Lytham miss out on The Open in 2026. It hasn’t hosted it since 2012. Some reckon the limited space for media and the tented village is the reason, but I think it’s because they’re guaranteed big crowds at Birkdale with it being a train ride from Liverpool. Hopefully Lytham isn’t off the rota for good.
We are talking about polls here, anyway. Where would Labour get more votes from?
Reform?
LibDems?
SNP is heavily down already
Welsh Nationalists aren’t going away
Greens are for those who don’t like Labour - also not much there.
They could get votes back from the Greens by going hard left - but would lose more than they gain by doing so.
It seemed a lot but we moved to North Wales less than a year later selling our Edinburgh home, repaying the loan, and buying a new build 2 bed split level bungalow for £3,250 and a mortgage that stretched us but soon became affordable
As an old friend of ours said when we met this week for the first time in near 40 years, we are the lucky generation notwithstanding that we had difficult times and the next generation are facing virtually impossible problems, especially on climate change, which there does seem to be an absence on honest thoughtful and sensible long term affordable solutions
If you want to protect the countryside etc. I suggest that you get building houses you can tolerate.
Otherwise the Fuck The Green Belt party will be coming down the line.
That isn't to say Rosindell will be charged and convicted. But he faces serious allegations and the Police clearly have enough evidence to proceed with the investigation rather than close it. That isn't a "call to Crimestoppers" as you flippantly put it.
What is your evidence for the 28% Con core vote? Not saying I disagree (I don’t know) but just wondering where that comes from.
(Ok, I know that IHT replaced CTT at that point, but you can go all the way back to 1889, when Salisbury's government introduced Estate Duty, to see that Tories have not generally been firmly against inheritance taxes.)
Suggest you listen to him on playback
Depends how bad the incoming ongoing mortgage crunch is. There must be some current Conservative voters who are considering switching.
I don't know the answer but it's crazy that our taxes are paying BTL rentiers.
It's now The British Open.
We're a small island and there's no longer an empire to go with it. Get real.
So it's unfactual to state that Labour have reached their maximum ceiling at 48%. Their maximum ceiling is 100% and there's no evidence to back the claim that they can't go somewhere else between 48 and 100.
They buy everything from the private sector, including hiring a lot of staff for admin work from contracting companies.
And that’s before you get to agency staff.
Using private hospitals etc isn’t a solution. Most of the staff also work in the NHS.
What makes sense, as with private schools, is looking at what they are doing, and why some things work better.
Testing, for example. I’m trying to find the study in the US - essentially , if there was any doubt about diagnosis at the initial stage, test for everything, MRI, the works. This saved money, IIRC, though faster diagnosis of complicated cases and earlier treatment.
If it is good enough for YouGov and Tiger Woods then it is good enough for me.
But they probably won’t.
We are doing educated guesswork here.
The Conservatives have tried really hard to go as low as possible. If they can’t manage to stay below 25% after Truss…
You don't have to live this way. It is possible to move with the times and be happy.
Enlarge your horizons. Embrace change.
Have a nice day
But you're the poor teacher who can take global holidays during term time.
"Open" could be the one down the road on Saturday week.
Rail staff have been told to prepare for 2,000 job cuts from the closure of ticket offices — even though their fate has not been officially decided yet.
The Sunday Times has seen confidential documents setting out proposals by the train operators to cut staffing at stations by October, as part of a plan by the Rail Delivery Group to close hundreds of ticket offices.
Huw Merriman, the rail minister, has justified the closures on the ground that only one in ten tickets are bought in offices, down from a third a decade ago.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2000-job-cuts-train-ticket-offices-uk-consultation-closures-tltbg0qz6
Send us a picture of the most exuberant shoes you own.
The UK has 6.1 MRI systems per million people, fewer than countries including Estonia and Slovenia. By comparison, the US has 38.1 scanners per million and Germany has 30.5
https://www.rcr.ac.uk/posts/nhs-must-do-more-future-proof-its-mri-capacity-say-imaging-experts#:~:text=The UK has 6.1 MRI,to estimate future MRI workload.
It was BigG who raised it. After Heathener.
(how they are going to pay).
All this dispute over a golf tournament’s name reminds me of the US World Series Baseball. No participation except from the USA.
Th Not just employment law, but DDA. It's impossible to buy railcard-diuscounted tickets at many stations going on the [edit] ticket machines only, and the current plans for remedying this need years of work. Edit: this is for one thing discrimination against the disabled and the elderly. So instant legal challenge.
Edit:
Fact check says this is false...
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/world-series/
Doh!
Investment in equipment and automation would improve productivity,