Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Labour could be the main threat in Mid Beds – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,217
edited July 2023 in General
imageLabour could be the main threat in Mid Beds – politicalbetting.com

My last article, arguing Labour are rightly favourite in Selby & Ainsty, provoked a very fair rebuttal from some commenters. The Tories may be vulnerable, but Labour are hardly a party with a history of by-election upsets. That’s what the Lib Dems are for.

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 49,144
    First, like Lab in Mid Beds.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,136
    FPT


    steve richards
    @steverichards14
    ·
    1h
    Much of K Starmer’s Observer article tomorrow is lifted word for word from T Blair post 97 eg :“It will mean moving from a one-size-fits-all approach to bespoke services that work for people..”Never before has a leader imitated a predecessor so overtly..a curious experiment.

    Affirms my earlier comments but for Starmer he will inherit a far worse economy than Blair
    I still have a 20 seat majority Sunak Government.

    There seems to be far more of a spring in the PB Tory step with better polling against Labour and since last night's IHT revelation.
    Probably just amazed at hearing a Conservative policy from a supposedly Conservative government, for the first itme in years.

    Or maybe lots of us are expecting large inheritances?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437
    The result might depend on how the party headquarters (informally, of course) carve up by-elections between themselves. Even assuming Nad ever stands down. Give her the peerage!
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited July 2023
    for Leon:

    Courthouse News Service - Attorney in Kari Lake voting machine lawsuit hit with sanctions from judge
    A federal judge didn’t buy Alan Dershowitz’s claims that he should be spared from sanctions given his limited role in the lawsuit, ordering him to pay more than $12,000 in attorney’s fees.

    PHOENIX (CN) — A federal judge imposed sanctions on attorney Alan Dershowitz for his role in Kari Lake’s 2022 lawsuit aiming to ban the use of electronic voting machines in Arizona.

    Despite playing what Dershowitz described as an extremely limited role in Lake’s suit against the Arizona secretary of state and supervisors of both Maricopa and Pima counties, U.S. District Judge John Tuchi ordered him to pay $12,220 in attorney’s fees to the Maricopa County defendants for breaking Rule 11, a federal law that holds attorneys accountable for making false or misleading allegations.

    Dershowitz said he intended only to give legal advice to Lake’s team, not to represent her.

    “In any event, Mr. Dershowitz’s subjective intent is not controlling at this stage,” Tuchi wrote in his Friday morning order. “As the court previously noted, compliance with Rule 11 is largely measured by an objective standard.” . . .

    Tuchi dismissed Lake’s case this past August, deeming the claims “too speculative” to have legal standing." . . .

    Dershowitz’s description of his involvement in the case clashed with how Lake represented it.

    “I am listed as the Plaintiff along with AZ House Rep @RealMarkFinchem,” Lake tweeted after filing the complaint. “Legal heavyweight Alan Dershowitz will be representing us. @AlanDersh is a Liberal Democrat. All voters will benefit from the removal of these machines.”

    In an episode of The Lindell Report about Lake’s lawsuit, host and conservative activist Mike Lindell called Dershowitz “one of the lead attorneys on this.” Lake didn’t correct him. . . .

    “Whether Mr. Dershowitz signed, or intended to sign, those filings as ‘counsel’ or ‘attorney; or ‘of counsel,’ he signed them,” Tuchi wrote. “And he effectively conceded that he authorized his signature on these filings without investigating whether they were legally and factually sound.” . . .

    Despite his clear actions in the case, Tuchi acknowledged Dershowitz’s “misguided” attempt to communicate his limited role, saying he believes when Dershowitz says he wasn’t fully aware that others represented him as playing a major role in the case. Tuchi also considered Dershowitz’s apology, writing that he doesn’t want to impose sanctions so severe as to deter other legal experts from providing advice in litigation for fear of sanctions.

    So, Tuchi reduced Dershowitz’s fee to only 10% of Maricopa County’s total fees of $122,200.

    Dershowitz said he plans to appeal the decision, and will take it to the U.S. Supreme Court if necessary. . . .

    https://www.courthousenews.com/attorney-in-kari-lake-voting-machine-lawsuit-hit-with-sanctions-from-judge/
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,471
    'Backing surprises when we have so little data is the right strategy in my opinion.'

    Correct.

    Good piece Quincel, and I hope at least one of your bets comes in.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited July 2023
    What we do have, of course, is national data. Plenty of it.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited July 2023
    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 194
    Off topic, I see that the Sunday Times have named Rosindell. I thought this was verboten, although known...why now? It does seem bad though that the police can leave someone hanging for such a long time without charging them.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,471

    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.

    The Conservatives are on core vote - 25-28%

    With occasional dips to 22-25% - which is hard core vote - when they fuck up especially.

    This fades, and they go back to core vote.

    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,778
    So, farewell then "Baldy" Ben Wallace.
    "We are not Amazon."
    That was your catchphrase.
    "Where's the buffet?"
    That was your other one.
    Keith's mum says,
    Like your hairline
    You have Ben and gone.

    E.J. Thribb (Aged 17½)

    Penny Dreadful's windage tray will be positively dripping at the thought of getting BB's job. Other hopefuls would be Shappsie and Jenricko.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,769
    Dura_Ace said:

    So, farewell then "Baldy" Ben Wallace.
    "We are not Amazon."
    That was your catchphrase.
    "Where's the buffet?"
    That was your other one.
    Keith's mum says,
    Like your hairline
    You have Ben and gone.

    E.J. Thribb (Aged 17½)

    Penny Dreadful's windage tray will be positively dripping at the thought of getting BB's job. Other hopefuls would be Shappsie and Jenricko.

    Oh good grief.

    Whatever anyone’s views on Mordaunt, I really hope she does get it rather than one of the other two.

    At least she’s sane and not as far as we know guilty of repeatedly lying to Parliament.

    She won’t though. Sunak will be nervous of giving her a higher profile role.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,774
    Dura_Ace said:

    So, farewell then "Baldy" Ben Wallace.
    "We are not Amazon."
    That was your catchphrase.
    "Where's the buffet?"
    That was your other one.
    Keith's mum says,
    Like your hairline
    You have Ben and gone.

    E.J. Thribb (Aged 17½)

    Penny Dreadful's windage tray will be positively dripping at the thought of getting BB's job. Other hopefuls would be Shappsie and Jenricko.

    The man of virtue, vielleicht

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Dura_Ace said:



    Penny Dreadful's windage tray will be positively dripping at the thought of getting BB's job.

    Apart from your infamous misogyny, I wonder why else you wouldn't want Penny to be promoted ...? ;)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
  • Sorry if those without twitter can't see it, but this is pretty cool


    Daniel Storey
    @danielstorey85

    No spoilers, but this is the cleverest football advert I've ever seen.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1680210299629064192
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657

    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Foxy said:

    First, like Lab in Mid Beds.

    Could be a result like Brecon & Radnor by-election 1985
    Lib 35.8
    Lab 34.4
    Tory 27.7
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited July 2023

    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
    Yes.

    We have to move on and be real. The days of the likes of Peter Alliss (RIP) are over. There's a British Open and a US Open.

    Should be an interesting one although I was sort-of hoping it blows a hooley at Hoylake, only because it's quite fun and it's what golfers regularly have to endure.

    Mind you, if it had been these past few days I suspect play would have been suspended at times?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    p.s. @Big_G_NorthWales must be just a few miles from you?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
    I'm struggling to google that. On the other hand, this one works:

    https://www.theopen.com/
  • Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
    https://www.theopen.com/

    The word 'British' isn't used once

    It's The 151st Open
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,106
    ...
  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,316

    Sorry if those without twitter can't see it, but this is pretty cool


    Daniel Storey
    @danielstorey85

    No spoilers, but this is the cleverest football advert I've ever seen.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1680210299629064192

    Twitter seems to have relented, at least for now. Great ad, thanks for posting.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    edited July 2023
    Heathener said:

    p.s. @Big_G_NorthWales must be just a few miles from you?

    Yes - it is 53 miles away and I followed Tiger Woods around the course in his early days

    This explains the British Open v the Open

    https://www.golfcompendium.com/2019/07/british-open-vs-open-championship.html
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,031

    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
    https://www.theopen.com/

    The word 'British' isn't used once

    It's The 151st Open
    The Open is *The* Open.

    It’s the oldest tournament in golf.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,475
    Fishing said:

    FPT


    steve richards
    @steverichards14
    ·
    1h
    Much of K Starmer’s Observer article tomorrow is lifted word for word from T Blair post 97 eg :“It will mean moving from a one-size-fits-all approach to bespoke services that work for people..”Never before has a leader imitated a predecessor so overtly..a curious experiment.

    Affirms my earlier comments but for Starmer he will inherit a far worse economy than Blair
    I still have a 20 seat majority Sunak Government.

    There seems to be far more of a spring in the PB Tory step with better polling against Labour and since last night's IHT revelation.
    Probably just amazed at hearing a Conservative policy from a supposedly Conservative government, for the first itme in years.

    Or maybe lots of us are expecting large inheritances?
    The problem with today’s Tory party is they don’t understand that society needs to be *seen* to be fair

    Inheritance tax is not a good tax. It raises comparatively little and for a significant administrative burden at a point of distress. Moreover for many (most?) it will require the sale of the childhood home with all the emotions that arises. It’s also easy for the wealthy or well advised to sidestep.

    But the idea of the fortunate few receiving a cascade of wealth sticks in the throat. The current balance - a significant amount tax free, the ability to protect the family home, and then a meaningful but not excessive contribution paid from the balance of the estate seems fair to most.

    Abolition would not.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,475

    The result might depend on how the party headquarters (informally, of course) carve up by-elections between themselves. Even assuming Nad ever stands down. Give her the peerage!

    Would it be too mischievous for Starmer to nominate her?
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,808
    sbjme19 said:

    Off topic, I see that the Sunday Times have named Rosindell. I thought this was verboten, although known...why now? It does seem bad though that the police can leave someone hanging for such a long time without charging them.

    It is not fair on anyone that these things are left to drag on so long. And the idea that the name is withheld is nonsense when it’s plain as day who is under investigation,
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437

    Sorry if those without twitter can't see it, but this is pretty cool


    Daniel Storey
    @danielstorey85

    No spoilers, but this is the cleverest football advert I've ever seen.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1680210299629064192

    Twitter now allows non-members to follow direct links so all should be well.

    @Leon will be all over this for the threat of deep fakes in politics (not to mention this is partly what the Hollywood dispute is about). And he'd be right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,256
    Idiot conspiracy theorist denies antisemitism.

    RFK Jr. denies comments on ‘ethnically targeted’ Covid-19 were anti-Semitic
    The longshot presidential candidate suggested that the virus could have been engineered to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-covid-19-ethnically-targeted-00106478

    And no, it couldn’t.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,256
    What a surprise.

    RFK Jr.’s secret fundraising success: Republicans
    A POLITICO analysis shows donor overlap with DeSantis and Trump supporters.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-fundraising-republicans-00106481
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437
    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
    https://www.theopen.com/

    The word 'British' isn't used once

    It's The 151st Open
    The Open is *The* Open.

    It’s the oldest tournament in golf.
    Mindless pedantry. What golf nuts should have noticed is the Scottish Open on at the moment is packed full of stars warming up for *The* Open, and yet tickets are (or were) affordable. It is like buying a Crystal Palace season ticket in order to see Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437
    Nigelb said:

    Idiot conspiracy theorist denies antisemitism.

    RFK Jr. denies comments on ‘ethnically targeted’ Covid-19 were anti-Semitic
    The longshot presidential candidate suggested that the virus could have been engineered to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-covid-19-ethnically-targeted-00106478

    And no, it couldn’t.

    Well, he has kind of got a point provided you accept prior conspiracy theories. If China had been engineering Covid for biological warfare, it would make sense to seek a variant that did not affect their own people. Not sure where the Jews come in, mind.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
    Depends if you thing the low 60s ratings Blair got from Gallup in 1995 were real or duff methodology.

    Personally, I tend towards the latter.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148

    Fishing said:

    FPT


    steve richards
    @steverichards14
    ·
    1h
    Much of K Starmer’s Observer article tomorrow is lifted word for word from T Blair post 97 eg :“It will mean moving from a one-size-fits-all approach to bespoke services that work for people..”Never before has a leader imitated a predecessor so overtly..a curious experiment.

    Affirms my earlier comments but for Starmer he will inherit a far worse economy than Blair
    I still have a 20 seat majority Sunak Government.

    There seems to be far more of a spring in the PB Tory step with better polling against Labour and since last night's IHT revelation.
    Probably just amazed at hearing a Conservative policy from a supposedly Conservative government, for the first itme in years.

    Or maybe lots of us are expecting large inheritances?
    The problem with today’s Tory party is they don’t understand that society needs to be *seen* to be fair

    Inheritance tax is not a good tax. It raises comparatively little and for a significant administrative burden at a point of distress. Moreover for many (most?) it will require the sale of the childhood home with all the emotions that arises. It’s also easy for the wealthy or well advised to sidestep.

    But the idea of the fortunate few receiving a cascade of wealth sticks in the throat. The current balance - a significant amount tax free, the ability to protect the family home, and then a meaningful but not excessive contribution paid from the balance of the estate seems fair to most.

    Abolition would not.

    As someone who is in the process of arranging for a slice of IHT to be paid, I endorse most of this message.

    The "family home" bit is tricky; I get the emotional point but so much (too much) British wealth is stored in piles of bricks. And if having a maiden aunt who leaves you their flat in Islington financially trumps almost anything you can do by working , that's not great for society.
    The family home thing is from long before homes became a zillion pound “investment”

    To my mothers generation (and before) you bought because

    1) better to pay your own mortgage than someone else’s
    2) after 20 years - free housing
    3) no rent man
    4) when you retired, with free accommodation, a small pension goes further.

    The absurd prices are a function of deliberately not building enough homes for the population.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    Nigelb said:

    Idiot conspiracy theorist denies antisemitism.

    RFK Jr. denies comments on ‘ethnically targeted’ Covid-19 were anti-Semitic
    The longshot presidential candidate suggested that the virus could have been engineered to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-covid-19-ethnically-targeted-00106478

    And no, it couldn’t.

    At this rate he’ll not be allowed in the Nutjob *Republican* Caucus on Capitol Hill - for being too nutty.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437

    sbjme19 said:

    Off topic, I see that the Sunday Times have named Rosindell. I thought this was verboten, although known...why now? It does seem bad though that the police can leave someone hanging for such a long time without charging them.

    It is not fair on anyone that these things are left to drag on so long. And the idea that the name is withheld is nonsense when it’s plain as day who is under investigation,
    Perhaps constitutionally dangerous too, if a call to Crimestoppers is all it takes to have a political opponent suspended indefinitely.

    The irony is that Rossindell has been quite an assiduous Member of Parliament despite WFH.
    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11199/andrew_rosindell/romford
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,256

    Nigelb said:

    Idiot conspiracy theorist denies antisemitism.

    RFK Jr. denies comments on ‘ethnically targeted’ Covid-19 were anti-Semitic
    The longshot presidential candidate suggested that the virus could have been engineered to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-covid-19-ethnically-targeted-00106478

    And no, it couldn’t.

    Well, he has kind of got a point provided you accept prior conspiracy theories. If China had been engineering Covid for biological warfare, it would make sense to seek a variant that did not affect their own people. Not sure where the Jews come in, mind.
    No, he doesn't. Even if you believe China deliberately engineered the virus, which is highly improbable, such targeting is simply not possible.
    Which is why he's an idiot too.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    edited July 2023

    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
    https://www.theopen.com/

    The word 'British' isn't used once

    It's The 151st Open
    The Open is *The* Open.

    It’s the oldest tournament in golf.
    Mindless pedantry. What golf nuts should have noticed is the Scottish Open on at the moment is packed full of stars warming up for *The* Open, and yet tickets are (or were) affordable. It is like buying a Crystal Palace
    season ticket in order to see Man City,
    Arsenal and Liverpool.
    That’s because it’s a bit of a trek to East Lothian. I doubled up on the Scottish Open and The Open (at Carnoustie) in 2018, which was really good, but with The Open at Royal Liverpool this year, not much incentive for anyone south of Hadrian’s Wall to go to Scotland.

    By the way, I was very disappointed to see Lytham miss out on The Open in 2026. It hasn’t hosted it since 2012. Some reckon the limited space for media and the tented village is the reason, but I think it’s because they’re guaranteed big crowds at Birkdale with it being a train ride from Liverpool. Hopefully Lytham isn’t off the rota for good.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    edited July 2023

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
    Depends if you thing the low 60s ratings Blair got from Gallup in 1995 were real or duff methodology.

    Personally, I tend towards the latter.
    Yes - they didn’t match up with actual election results.

    We are talking about polls here, anyway. Where would Labour get more votes from?

    Reform?
    LibDems?

    SNP is heavily down already
    Welsh Nationalists aren’t going away
    Greens are for those who don’t like Labour - also not much there.

    They could get votes back from the Greens by going hard left - but would lose more than they gain by doing so.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Idiot conspiracy theorist denies antisemitism.

    RFK Jr. denies comments on ‘ethnically targeted’ Covid-19 were anti-Semitic
    The longshot presidential candidate suggested that the virus could have been engineered to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-covid-19-ethnically-targeted-00106478

    And no, it couldn’t.

    Well, he has kind of got a point provided you accept prior conspiracy theories. If China had been engineering Covid for biological warfare, it would make sense to seek a variant that did not affect their own people. Not sure where the Jews come in, mind.
    No, he doesn't. Even if you believe China deliberately engineered the virus, which is highly improbable, such targeting is simply not possible.
    Which is why he's an idiot too.
    Ikaaaaaaaaara!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    edited July 2023

    Fishing said:

    FPT


    steve richards
    @steverichards14
    ·
    1h
    Much of K Starmer’s Observer article tomorrow is lifted word for word from T Blair post 97 eg :“It will mean moving from a one-size-fits-all approach to bespoke services that work for people..”Never before has a leader imitated a predecessor so overtly..a curious experiment.

    Affirms my earlier comments but for Starmer he will inherit a far worse economy than Blair
    I still have a 20 seat majority Sunak Government.

    There seems to be far more of a spring in the PB Tory step with better polling against Labour and since last night's IHT revelation.
    Probably just amazed at hearing a Conservative policy from a supposedly Conservative government, for the first itme in years.

    Or maybe lots of us are expecting large inheritances?
    The problem with today’s Tory party is they don’t understand that society needs to be *seen* to be fair

    Inheritance tax is not a good tax. It raises comparatively little and for a significant administrative burden at a point of distress. Moreover for many (most?) it will require the sale of the childhood home with all the emotions that arises. It’s also easy for the wealthy or well advised to sidestep.

    But the idea of the fortunate few receiving a cascade of wealth sticks in the throat. The current balance - a significant amount tax free, the ability to protect the family home, and then a meaningful but not excessive contribution paid from the balance of the estate seems fair to most.

    Abolition would not.

    As someone who is in the process of arranging for a slice of IHT to be paid, I endorse most of this message.

    The "family home" bit is tricky; I get the emotional point but so much (too much) British wealth is stored in piles of bricks. And if having a maiden aunt who leaves you their flat in Islington financially trumps almost anything you can do by working , that's not great for society.
    The family home thing is from long before homes became a zillion pound “investment”

    To my mothers generation (and before) you bought because

    1) better to pay your own mortgage than someone else’s
    2) after 20 years - free housing
    3) no rent man
    4) when you retired, with free accommodation, a small pension goes further.

    The absurd prices are a function of deliberately not building enough homes for the population.
    Speaking personally we bought our first home in Edinburgh in 1964 when we were married with the help of my father in law for £1,500

    It seemed a lot but we moved to North Wales less than a year later selling our Edinburgh home, repaying the loan, and buying a new build 2 bed split level bungalow for £3,250 and a mortgage that stretched us but soon became affordable

    As an old friend of ours said when we met this week for the first time in near 40 years, we are the lucky generation notwithstanding that we had difficult times and the next generation are facing virtually impossible problems, especially on climate change, which there does seem to be an absence on honest thoughtful and sensible long term affordable solutions
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,491

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
    Depends if you thing the low 60s ratings Blair got from Gallup in 1995 were real or duff methodology.

    Personally, I tend towards the latter.
    Yes - they didn’t match up with actual election results.

    We are talking about polls here, anyway. Where would Labour get more votes from?

    Reform?
    LibDems?

    SNP is heavily down already
    Welsh Nationalists aren’t going away
    Greens are for those who don’t like Labour - also not much there.

    They could get votes back from the Greens by going hard left - but would lose more than they gain by doing so.
    They could get more Conservative voters switching, or get some of those ex-Con don’t know-ers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
    Depends if you thing the low 60s ratings Blair got from Gallup in 1995 were real or duff methodology.

    Personally, I tend towards the latter.
    Yes - they didn’t match up with actual election results.

    We are talking about polls here, anyway. Where would Labour get more votes from?

    Reform?
    LibDems?

    SNP is heavily down already
    Welsh Nationalists aren’t going away
    Greens are for those who don’t like Labour - also not much there.

    They could get votes back from the Greens by going hard left - but would lose more than they gain by doing so.
    They could get more Conservative voters switching, or get some of those ex-Con don’t know-ers.
    I doubt they are going to get much from Conservative core vote.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148

    Fishing said:

    FPT


    steve richards
    @steverichards14
    ·
    1h
    Much of K Starmer’s Observer article tomorrow is lifted word for word from T Blair post 97 eg :“It will mean moving from a one-size-fits-all approach to bespoke services that work for people..”Never before has a leader imitated a predecessor so overtly..a curious experiment.

    Affirms my earlier comments but for Starmer he will inherit a far worse economy than Blair
    I still have a 20 seat majority Sunak Government.

    There seems to be far more of a spring in the PB Tory step with better polling against Labour and since last night's IHT revelation.
    Probably just amazed at hearing a Conservative policy from a supposedly Conservative government, for the first itme in years.

    Or maybe lots of us are expecting large inheritances?
    The problem with today’s Tory party is they don’t understand that society needs to be *seen* to be fair

    Inheritance tax is not a good tax. It raises comparatively little and for a significant administrative burden at a point of distress. Moreover for many (most?) it will require the sale of the childhood home with all the emotions that arises. It’s also easy for the wealthy or well advised to sidestep.

    But the idea of the fortunate few receiving a cascade of wealth sticks in the throat. The current balance - a significant amount tax free, the ability to protect the family home, and then a meaningful but not excessive contribution paid from the balance of the estate seems fair to most.

    Abolition would not.

    As someone who is in the process of arranging for a slice of IHT to be paid, I endorse most of this message.

    The "family home" bit is tricky; I get the emotional point but so much (too much) British wealth is stored in piles of bricks. And if having a maiden aunt who leaves you their flat in Islington financially trumps almost anything you can do by working , that's not great for society.
    The family home thing is from long before homes became a zillion pound “investment”

    To my mothers generation (and before) you bought because

    1) better to pay your own mortgage than someone else’s
    2) after 20 years - free housing
    3) no rent man
    4) when you retired, with free accommodation, a small pension goes further.

    The absurd prices are a function of deliberately not building enough homes for the population.
    Speaking personally we bought our first home in Edinburgh in 1964 when we were married with the help of my father in law for £1,500

    It seemed a lot but we moved to North Wales less than a year later selling our Edinburgh home, repaying the loan, and buying a new build 2 bed split level bungalow for £3,250 and a mortgage that stretched us but soon became affordable

    As an old friend of ours said when we met this week for the first time in near 40 years, we are the lucky generation notwithstanding that we had difficult times and the next generation are facing virtually impossible problems, especially on climate change, which there does seem to be an absence on honest thoughtful and sensible long term affordable solutions
    Building more houses isn’t especially hard.

    If you want to protect the countryside etc. I suggest that you get building houses you can tolerate.

    Otherwise the Fuck The Green Belt party will be coming down the line.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,475
    Nigelb said:

    Idiot conspiracy theorist denies antisemitism.

    RFK Jr. denies comments on ‘ethnically targeted’ Covid-19 were anti-Semitic
    The longshot presidential candidate suggested that the virus could have been engineered to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-covid-19-ethnically-targeted-00106478

    And no, it couldn’t.

    It’s always amusing how much overlap there is between crackpot conspiracy theorists and anti-semites there is

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
    Yes.

    We have to move on and be real. The days of the likes of Peter Alliss (RIP) are over. There's a British Open and a US Open.

    Should be an interesting one although I was sort-of hoping it blows a hooley at Hoylake, only because it's quite fun and it's what golfers regularly have to endure.

    Mind you, if it had been these past few days I suspect play would have been suspended
    at times?
    Rubbish. It’s The Open Championship just as it is The PGA Championship and just as it is The FA Cup and The Country Club (bonus points if you know where the last one is).

  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,168
    edited July 2023

    sbjme19 said:

    Off topic, I see that the Sunday Times have named Rosindell. I thought this was verboten, although known...why now? It does seem bad though that the police can leave someone hanging for such a long time without charging them.

    It is not fair on anyone that these things are left to drag on so long. And the idea that the name is withheld is nonsense when it’s plain as day who is under investigation,
    Perhaps constitutionally dangerous too, if a call to Crimestoppers is all it takes to have a political opponent suspended indefinitely.

    The irony is that Rossindell has been quite an assiduous Member of Parliament despite WFH.
    https://www.theyworkforyou.com/mp/11199/andrew_rosindell/romford
    We're really not talking about "a call to Crimestoppers" here. Police do actually assess the credibility of allegations before opening a formal investigation and arresting suspects. And, even if they do launch an investigation, that doesn't roll on for a year for no reason in the absence of substantive evidence.

    That isn't to say Rosindell will be charged and convicted. But he faces serious allegations and the Police clearly have enough evidence to proceed with the investigation rather than close it. That isn't a "call to Crimestoppers" as you flippantly put it.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,475

    Fishing said:

    FPT


    steve richards
    @steverichards14
    ·
    1h
    Much of K Starmer’s Observer article tomorrow is lifted word for word from T Blair post 97 eg :“It will mean moving from a one-size-fits-all approach to bespoke services that work for people..”Never before has a leader imitated a predecessor so overtly..a curious experiment.

    Affirms my earlier comments but for Starmer he will inherit a far worse economy than Blair
    I still have a 20 seat majority Sunak Government.

    There seems to be far more of a spring in the PB Tory step with better polling against Labour and since last night's IHT revelation.
    Probably just amazed at hearing a Conservative policy from a supposedly Conservative government, for the first itme in years.

    Or maybe lots of us are expecting large inheritances?
    The problem with today’s Tory party is they don’t understand that society needs to be *seen* to be fair

    Inheritance tax is not a good tax. It raises comparatively little and for a significant administrative burden at a point of distress. Moreover for many (most?) it will require the sale of the childhood home with all the emotions that arises. It’s also easy for the wealthy or well advised to sidestep.

    But the idea of the fortunate few receiving a cascade of wealth sticks in the throat. The current balance - a significant amount tax free, the ability to protect the family home, and then a meaningful but not excessive contribution paid from the balance of the estate seems fair to most.

    Abolition would not.

    As someone who is in the process of arranging for a slice of IHT to be paid, I endorse most of this message.

    The "family home" bit is tricky; I get the emotional point but so much (too much) British wealth is stored in piles of bricks. And if having a maiden aunt who leaves you their flat in Islington financially trumps almost anything you can do by working , that's not great for society.
    Most people sell it, especially if there is more than one heir. The bitterness comes from being “forced” to sell it by the tax man

  • maxhmaxh Posts: 1,316

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
    Depends if you thing the low 60s ratings Blair got from Gallup in 1995 were real or duff methodology.

    Personally, I tend towards the latter.
    Yes - they didn’t match up with actual election results.

    We are talking about polls here, anyway. Where would Labour get more votes from?

    Reform?
    LibDems?

    SNP is heavily down already
    Welsh Nationalists aren’t going away
    Greens are for those who don’t like Labour - also not much there.

    They could get votes back from the Greens by going hard left - but would lose more than they gain by doing so.
    They could get more Conservative voters switching, or get some of those ex-Con don’t know-ers.
    I doubt they are going to get much from Conservative core vote.
    I suspect there might well be more of the SNP vote up for grabs over the next 12 months.

    What is your evidence for the 28% Con core vote? Not saying I disagree (I don’t know) but just wondering where that comes from.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    Fishing said:

    FPT


    steve richards
    @steverichards14
    ·
    1h
    Much of K Starmer’s Observer article tomorrow is lifted word for word from T Blair post 97 eg :“It will mean moving from a one-size-fits-all approach to bespoke services that work for people..”Never before has a leader imitated a predecessor so overtly..a curious experiment.

    Affirms my earlier comments but for Starmer he will inherit a far worse economy than Blair
    I still have a 20 seat majority Sunak Government.

    There seems to be far more of a spring in the PB Tory step with better polling against Labour and since last night's IHT revelation.
    Probably just amazed at hearing a Conservative policy from a supposedly Conservative government, for the first itme in years.

    Or maybe lots of us are expecting large inheritances?
    If it's a Conservative policy to abolish IHT, why have successive Tory governments kept it since it was introduced in, er..., oh, 1986 by Nigel Lawson?

    (Ok, I know that IHT replaced CTT at that point, but you can go all the way back to 1889, when Salisbury's government introduced Estate Duty, to see that Tories have not generally been firmly against inheritance taxes.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 28,437
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Idiot conspiracy theorist denies antisemitism.

    RFK Jr. denies comments on ‘ethnically targeted’ Covid-19 were anti-Semitic
    The longshot presidential candidate suggested that the virus could have been engineered to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-covid-19-ethnically-targeted-00106478

    And no, it couldn’t.

    Well, he has kind of got a point provided you accept prior conspiracy theories. If China had been engineering Covid for biological warfare, it would make sense to seek a variant that did not affect their own people. Not sure where the Jews come in, mind.
    No, he doesn't. Even if you believe China deliberately engineered the virus, which is highly improbable, such targeting is simply not possible.
    Which is why he's an idiot too.
    Nature manages it. There are diseases (not necessarily virus-borne) that affect some ethnic groups more than others. The poster child would be sickle cell anaemia. And possible or not, that does not preclude Biowarfare Research Group Number 17 aiming for ethnic specificity.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,126

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Idiot conspiracy theorist denies antisemitism.

    RFK Jr. denies comments on ‘ethnically targeted’ Covid-19 were anti-Semitic
    The longshot presidential candidate suggested that the virus could have been engineered to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-covid-19-ethnically-targeted-00106478

    And no, it couldn’t.

    Well, he has kind of got a point provided you accept prior conspiracy theories. If China had been engineering Covid for biological warfare, it would make sense to seek a variant that did not affect their own people. Not sure where the Jews come in, mind.
    No, he doesn't. Even if you believe China deliberately engineered the virus, which is highly improbable, such targeting is simply not possible.
    Which is why he's an idiot too.
    Nature manages it. There are diseases (not necessarily virus-borne) that affect some ethnic groups more than others. The poster child would be sickle cell anaemia. And possible or not, that does not preclude Biowarfare Research Group Number 17 aiming for ethnic specificity.
    Sickle cell anemia is not an infectious disease, it is a genetic condition, so by definition it will affect one part of the gene pool more than another.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Tony Blair on Sophy Ridge is telling it as it is and to be honest he would make an excellent labour leader even today
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,412

    Tony Blair on Sophy Ridge is telling it as it is and to be honest he would make an excellent labour leader even today

    What is he saying that impresses you so?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    maxh said:

    Sorry if those without twitter can't see it, but this is pretty cool


    Daniel Storey
    @danielstorey85

    No spoilers, but this is the cleverest football advert I've ever seen.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1680210299629064192

    Twitter seems to have relented, at least for now. Great ad, thanks for posting.
    Twitter seems to have relented after Threads so I can see that no problem. That is really clever.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Tony Blair saying the private sector should not be a dirty word in respect of the NHS
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    viewcode said:

    Tony Blair on Sophy Ridge is telling it as it is and to be honest he would make an excellent labour leader even today

    What is he saying that impresses you so?
    He is reminding me why I voted for him

    Suggest you listen to him on playback
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,468
    maxh said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
    Depends if you thing the low 60s ratings Blair got from Gallup in 1995 were real or duff methodology.

    Personally, I tend towards the latter.
    Yes - they didn’t match up with actual election results.

    We are talking about polls here, anyway. Where would Labour get more votes from?

    Reform?
    LibDems?

    SNP is heavily down already
    Welsh Nationalists aren’t going away
    Greens are for those who don’t like Labour - also not much there.

    They could get votes back from the Greens by going hard left - but would lose more than they gain by doing so.
    They could get more Conservative voters switching, or get some of those ex-Con don’t know-ers.
    I doubt they are going to get much from Conservative core vote.
    I suspect there might well be more of the SNP vote up for grabs over the next 12 months.

    What is your evidence for the 28% Con core vote? Not saying I disagree (I don’t know) but just wondering where that comes from.
    Each successive vote a party loses is harder and harder, so it ought to more difficult to fall from 28 to 23 than from 38 to 33. Gradual transition not sudden switch.

    Depends how bad the incoming ongoing mortgage crunch is. There must be some current Conservative voters who are considering switching.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806
    maxh said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
    Depends if you thing the low 60s ratings Blair got from Gallup in 1995 were real or duff methodology.

    Personally, I tend towards the latter.
    Yes - they didn’t match up with actual election results.

    We are talking about polls here, anyway. Where would Labour get more votes from?

    Reform?
    LibDems?

    SNP is heavily down already
    Welsh Nationalists aren’t going away
    Greens are for those who don’t like Labour - also not much there.

    They could get votes back from the Greens by going hard left - but would lose more than they gain by doing so.
    They could get more Conservative voters switching, or get some of those ex-Con don’t know-ers.
    I doubt they are going to get much from Conservative core vote.
    I suspect there might well be more of the SNP vote up for grabs over the next 12 months.

    What is your evidence for the 28% Con core vote? Not saying I disagree (I don’t know) but just wondering where that comes from.
    Tbf the Tories have only once got less than 30% in a GE and that was in 1832. Even in 1997 they got 30.7%.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    maxh said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
    Depends if you thing the low 60s ratings Blair got from Gallup in 1995 were real or duff methodology.

    Personally, I tend towards the latter.
    Yes - they didn’t match up with actual election results.

    We are talking about polls here, anyway. Where would Labour get more votes from?

    Reform?
    LibDems?

    SNP is heavily down already
    Welsh Nationalists aren’t going away
    Greens are for those who don’t like Labour - also not much there.

    They could get votes back from the Greens by going hard left - but would lose more than they gain by doing so.
    They could get more Conservative voters switching, or get some of those ex-Con don’t know-ers.
    I doubt they are going to get much from Conservative core vote.
    I suspect there might well be more of the SNP vote up for grabs over the next 12 months.

    What is your evidence for the 28% Con core vote? Not saying I disagree (I don’t know) but just wondering where that comes from.
    Observation - when the Conservatives do another big fuckup, they temporarily dip down to as low as 22%. But always rebound to about 28% or so.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,412

    viewcode said:

    Tony Blair on Sophy Ridge is telling it as it is and to be honest he would make an excellent labour leader even today

    What is he saying that impresses you so?
    He is reminding me why I voted for him

    Suggest you listen to him on playback
    I can listen to him on playback but I cannot tell which part of his dialogue impressed you without you telling me. Or did you mean generally, not something specific.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    Fishing said:

    FPT


    steve richards
    @steverichards14
    ·
    1h
    Much of K Starmer’s Observer article tomorrow is lifted word for word from T Blair post 97 eg :“It will mean moving from a one-size-fits-all approach to bespoke services that work for people..”Never before has a leader imitated a predecessor so overtly..a curious experiment.

    Affirms my earlier comments but for Starmer he will inherit a far worse economy than Blair
    I still have a 20 seat majority Sunak Government.

    There seems to be far more of a spring in the PB Tory step with better polling against Labour and since last night's IHT revelation.
    Probably just amazed at hearing a Conservative policy from a supposedly Conservative government, for the first itme in years.

    Or maybe lots of us are expecting large inheritances?
    The problem with today’s Tory party is they don’t understand that society needs to be *seen* to be fair

    Inheritance tax is not a good tax. It raises comparatively little and for a significant administrative burden at a point of distress. Moreover for many (most?) it will require the sale of the childhood home with all the emotions that arises. It’s also easy for the wealthy or well advised to sidestep.

    But the idea of the fortunate few receiving a cascade of wealth sticks in the throat. The current balance - a significant amount tax free, the ability to protect the family home, and then a meaningful but not excessive contribution paid from the balance of the estate seems fair to most.

    Abolition would not.

    As someone who is in the process of arranging for a slice of IHT to be paid, I endorse most of this message.

    The "family home" bit is tricky; I get the emotional point but so much (too much) British wealth is stored in piles of bricks. And if having a maiden aunt who leaves you their flat in Islington financially trumps almost anything you can do by working , that's not great for society.
    Most people sell it, especially if there is more than one heir. The bitterness comes from being “forced” to sell it by the tax man

    But who is being forced to sell it if that is necessary anyway, to split the proceeds between more than one beneficiary? In that common circumstance, there is going to be horse trading anyway.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Tony Blair on Sophy Ridge is telling it as it is and to be honest he would make an excellent labour leader even today

    What is he saying that impresses you so?
    He is reminding me why I voted for him

    Suggest you listen to him on playback
    I can listen to him on playback but I cannot tell which part of his dialogue impressed you without you telling me. Or did you mean generally, not something specific.
    Just generally and he seems both on the shortage of money and the NHS to be talking plain sense
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806

    Fishing said:

    FPT


    steve richards
    @steverichards14
    ·
    1h
    Much of K Starmer’s Observer article tomorrow is lifted word for word from T Blair post 97 eg :“It will mean moving from a one-size-fits-all approach to bespoke services that work for people..”Never before has a leader imitated a predecessor so overtly..a curious experiment.

    Affirms my earlier comments but for Starmer he will inherit a far worse economy than Blair
    I still have a 20 seat majority Sunak Government.

    There seems to be far more of a spring in the PB Tory step with better polling against Labour and since last night's IHT revelation.
    Probably just amazed at hearing a Conservative policy from a supposedly Conservative government, for the first itme in years.

    Or maybe lots of us are expecting large inheritances?
    The problem with today’s Tory party is they don’t understand that society needs to be *seen* to be fair

    Inheritance tax is not a good tax. It raises comparatively little and for a significant administrative burden at a point of distress. Moreover for many (most?) it will require the sale of the childhood home with all the emotions that arises. It’s also easy for the wealthy or well advised to sidestep.

    But the idea of the fortunate few receiving a cascade of wealth sticks in the throat. The current balance - a significant amount tax free, the ability to protect the family home, and then a meaningful but not excessive contribution paid from the balance of the estate seems fair to most.

    Abolition would not.

    As someone who is in the process of arranging for a slice of IHT to be paid, I endorse most of this message.

    The "family home" bit is tricky; I get the emotional point but so much (too much) British wealth is stored in piles of bricks. And if having a maiden aunt who leaves you their flat in Islington financially trumps almost anything you can do by working , that's not great for society.
    The family home thing is from long before homes became a zillion pound “investment”

    To my mothers generation (and before) you bought because

    1) better to pay your own mortgage than someone else’s
    2) after 20 years - free housing
    3) no rent man
    4) when you retired, with free accommodation, a small pension goes further.

    The absurd prices are a function of deliberately not building enough homes for the population.
    One thing we need to address in this country is the absurd dependence on Housing Benefit (aka the Housing Element in UC).

    I don't know the answer but it's crazy that our taxes are paying BTL rentiers.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Sandpit said:

    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
    https://www.theopen.com/

    The word 'British' isn't used once

    It's The 151st Open
    The Open is *The* Open.

    It’s the oldest tournament in golf.
    This is more Canute behaviour I'm afraid and unless people of that generation and type wish to be dismissed as Boomers or, worse, the more pejorative 'Gammons,' they need to get real about the modern world.

    It's now The British Open.

    We're a small island and there's no longer an empire to go with it. Get real.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,412

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Tony Blair on Sophy Ridge is telling it as it is and to be honest he would make an excellent labour leader even today

    What is he saying that impresses you so?
    He is reminding me why I voted for him

    Suggest you listen to him on playback
    I can listen to him on playback but I cannot tell which part of his dialogue impressed you without you telling me. Or did you mean generally, not something specific.
    Just generally and he seems both on the shortage of money and the NHS to be talking plain sense
    Thank you.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806

    maxh said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
    Depends if you thing the low 60s ratings Blair got from Gallup in 1995 were real or duff methodology.

    Personally, I tend towards the latter.
    Yes - they didn’t match up with actual election results.

    We are talking about polls here, anyway. Where would Labour get more votes from?

    Reform?
    LibDems?

    SNP is heavily down already
    Welsh Nationalists aren’t going away
    Greens are for those who don’t like Labour - also not much there.

    They could get votes back from the Greens by going hard left - but would lose more than they gain by doing so.
    They could get more Conservative voters switching, or get some of those ex-Con don’t know-ers.
    I doubt they are going to get much from Conservative core vote.
    I suspect there might well be more of the SNP vote up for grabs over the next 12 months.

    What is your evidence for the 28% Con core vote? Not saying I disagree (I don’t know) but just wondering where that comes from.
    Each successive vote a party loses is harder and harder, so it ought to more difficult to fall from 28 to 23 than from 38 to 33. Gradual transition not sudden switch.

    Depends how bad the incoming ongoing mortgage crunch is. There must be some current Conservative voters who are considering switching.
    They don't have to switch - Labour's share will go up if core Tory voters stay at home.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
    Depends if you thing the low 60s ratings Blair got from Gallup in 1995 were real or duff methodology.

    Personally, I tend towards the latter.
    Yes - they didn’t match up with actual election results.

    We are talking about polls here, anyway. Where would Labour get more votes from?

    Reform?
    LibDems?

    SNP is heavily down already
    Welsh Nationalists aren’t going away
    Greens are for those who don’t like Labour - also not much there.

    They could get votes back from the Greens by going hard left - but would lose more than they gain by doing so.
    You may be right but it's a subjective opinion not evidentially based, and it's probably questionable.

    So it's unfactual to state that Labour have reached their maximum ceiling at 48%. Their maximum ceiling is 100% and there's no evidence to back the claim that they can't go somewhere else between 48 and 100.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148

    Tony Blair saying the private sector should not be a dirty word in respect of the NHS

    For fun - the NHS is already private. They don’t build hospitals, make beds or syringes or drugs. Or anything else.

    They buy everything from the private sector, including hiring a lot of staff for admin work from contracting companies.

    And that’s before you get to agency staff.

    Using private hospitals etc isn’t a solution. Most of the staff also work in the NHS.

    What makes sense, as with private schools, is looking at what they are doing, and why some things work better.

    Testing, for example. I’m trying to find the study in the US - essentially , if there was any doubt about diagnosis at the initial stage, test for everything, MRI, the works. This saved money, IIRC, though faster diagnosis of complicated cases and earlier treatment.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    edited July 2023
    YouGov have just sent me a survey and guess what one of the questions is about?



    If it is good enough for YouGov and Tiger Woods then it is good enough for me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning.

    Thank you for an excellent article @Quincel (Pip Moss). I love it when someone bets with their head, even if this means placing apparently contradictory bets and / or betting against their own wishes. Some of my most profitable events have resulted when I remember to behave that way.

    One minor quibble is that nationally Labour are averaging 46.3% over the last 10 polls which is a fair way off your 'almost 50%'.

    I think (like @Foxy below) that Labour will win Mid Beds. Why? Because Labour are now the party of middle Britain. In areas where the LibDems aren't strong second, Labour are the comfortable choice for people who want solid, decent, Government. This has been Starmer's triumph. Yes, he (they) come across as dull, but chatting to people in old blue areas, that's exactly what they seem to want.

    I'm less sure about Selby & Ainsty and I can see why @Quincel you have cashed in. I think it would be a remarkable win by Labour but I'd put their chances there at little better than evens. Is that expectation management? Perhaps.

    One thing that we have to factor in here is neither the Labour nor LibDem vote: it's the Conservative one. I know that may seem obvious but their national poll share remains abysmal. In those same last 10 polls, the Conservative share averages just 26.2%. The real story at these by-elections may be more about their atrocious showing, following which we may well hear the, 'our vote stayed at home' meme.



    Labour are on pretty much maximum vote.
    Evidence?
    Where are they going to get more votes from?

    LibDems aren’t going to collapse
    Conservative core vote is 28% or so
    The Greens are Spare Labour for the Starmer Is A Tory clowns
    Depends if you thing the low 60s ratings Blair got from Gallup in 1995 were real or duff methodology.

    Personally, I tend towards the latter.
    Yes - they didn’t match up with actual election results.

    We are talking about polls here, anyway. Where would Labour get more votes from?

    Reform?
    LibDems?

    SNP is heavily down already
    Welsh Nationalists aren’t going away
    Greens are for those who don’t like Labour - also not much there.

    They could get votes back from the Greens by going hard left - but would lose more than they gain by doing so.
    You may be right but it's a subjective opinion not evidentially based, and it's probably questionable.

    So it's unfactual to state that Labour have reached their maximum ceiling at 48%. Their maximum ceiling is 100% and there's no evidence to back the claim that they can't go somewhere else between 48 and 100.

    On that basis the LibDems could get 60% in a poll.

    But they probably won’t.

    We are doing educated guesswork here.

    The Conservatives have tried really hard to go as low as possible. If they can’t manage to stay below 25% after Truss…
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    It's actually quite sad to see older folk in reactionary mode: raging against the dying of the light.

    You don't have to live this way. It is possible to move with the times and be happy.

    Enlarge your horizons. Embrace change.

    Have a nice day ;) xx
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    YouGov have just sent me a survey and guess what one of the questions is about?



    If it is good enough for YouGov and Tiger Woods then it is good enough for me.

    Except they have to specify when and where it is. So obviously not good enough to call it the Open tout court. Needs to be distinguished from the Open at Berwick upon Tweed Magdalene Fields Golf Club, no?
  • TresTres Posts: 2,724
    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
    Yes.

    We have to move on and be real. The days of the likes of Peter Alliss (RIP) are over. There's a British Open and a US Open.

    Should be an interesting one although I was sort-of hoping it blows a hooley at Hoylake, only because it's quite fun and it's what golfers regularly have to endure.

    Mind you, if it had been these past few days I suspect play would have been suspended at times?
    All the marketing has been and always will be 'The Open'.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Carnyx said:

    YouGov have just sent me a survey and guess what one of the questions is about?



    If it is good enough for YouGov and Tiger Woods then it is good enough for me.

    Except they have to specify when and where it is. So obviously not good enough to call it the Open tout court. Needs to be distinguished from the Open at Berwick upon Tweed Magdalene Fields Golf Club, no?
    I started playing golf at Magdalene Fields Golf Club when I was 11
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    Heathener said:

    It's actually quite sad to see older folk in reactionary mode: raging against the dying of the light.

    You don't have to live this way. It is possible to move with the times and be happy.

    Enlarge your horizons. Embrace change.

    Have a nice day ;) xx

    You really are a bell end, I am the least gammony and reactionary person you will meet.

    But you're the poor teacher who can take global holidays during term time.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393

    Carnyx said:

    YouGov have just sent me a survey and guess what one of the questions is about?



    If it is good enough for YouGov and Tiger Woods then it is good enough for me.

    Except they have to specify when and where it is. So obviously not good enough to call it the Open tout court. Needs to be distinguished from the Open at Berwick upon Tweed Magdalene Fields Golf Club, no?
    I started playing golf at Magdalene Fields Golf Club when I was 11
    Well, quite. So we must be quite clear about which Open this is.

    "Open" could be the one down the road on Saturday week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    So much for a consultation.

    Rail staff have been told to prepare for 2,000 job cuts from the closure of ticket offices — even though their fate has not been officially decided yet.

    The Sunday Times has seen confidential documents setting out proposals by the train operators to cut staffing at stations by October, as part of a plan by the Rail Delivery Group to close hundreds of ticket offices.

    Huw Merriman, the rail minister, has justified the closures on the ground that only one in ten tickets are bought in offices, down from a third a decade ago.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2000-job-cuts-train-ticket-offices-uk-consultation-closures-tltbg0qz6
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    YouGov have just sent me a survey and guess what one of the questions is about?



    If it is good enough for YouGov and Tiger Woods then it is good enough for me.

    Except they have to specify when and where it is. So obviously not good enough to call it the Open tout court. Needs to be distinguished from the Open at Berwick upon Tweed Magdalene Fields Golf Club, no?
    I started playing golf at Magdalene Fields Golf Club when I was 11
    Well, quite. So we must be quite clear about which Open this is.

    "Open" could be the one down the road on Saturday week.
    Or the Moray Open starting the same day !!!!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148
    A

    Heathener said:

    It's actually quite sad to see older folk in reactionary mode: raging against the dying of the light.

    You don't have to live this way. It is possible to move with the times and be happy.

    Enlarge your horizons. Embrace change.

    Have a nice day ;) xx

    You really are a bell end, I am the least gammony and reactionary person you will meet.

    But you're the poor teacher who can take global holidays during term time.
    Right - to start the day on a better… foot

    Send us a picture of the most exuberant shoes you own.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,975
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    YouGov have just sent me a survey and guess what one of the questions is about?



    If it is good enough for YouGov and Tiger Woods then it is good enough for me.

    Except they have to specify when and where it is. So obviously not good enough to call it the Open tout court. Needs to be distinguished from the Open at Berwick upon Tweed Magdalene Fields Golf Club, no?
    I started playing golf at Magdalene Fields Golf Club when I was 11
    Well, quite. So we must be quite clear about which Open this is.

    "Open" could be the one down the road on Saturday week.
    From the nation that gets its knickers in a twist over the spelling of whisk(e)y.
  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049
    Tres said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:

    Quite a lot going on in the sports world at the moment, with some nail-biters:

    Djokovic v Alcaraz could in theory be quite a match. It's world No. 1 v No. 2. 'He's hungry. I'm hungry, too, so let's have a feast,' said Djokovic.

    The women's Ashes is at a nail-biting stage. All square with two to play, the first starts this morning at the Ageas Bowl.

    Those of you following the Tour de France will know that there has almost been nothing quite like this in the modern era. Just 10 seconds separate Pogacar and Vinegaard, and 1 second separates 3rd from 4th. Yesterday was a thrilling stage, with another big Alpine one today.

    Looking ahead to Wednesday and the men's Ashes fires up again, or it will do if the weather behaves at Old Trafford. 2-1 with all to play for.

    Good morning

    I would just add it is the final day of the Scottish Open, then the British Open commences on Thurs
    It is not the 'British Open', young man. There is no such thing as the British Open.

    It is The Open. There is no other.

    Wash your mouth out....and good morning. :smile:
    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club
    Yes.

    We have to move on and be real. The days of the likes of Peter Alliss (RIP) are over. There's a British Open and a US Open.

    Should be an interesting one although I was sort-of hoping it blows a hooley at Hoylake, only because it's quite fun and it's what golfers regularly have to endure.

    Mind you, if it had been these past few days I suspect play would have been suspended at times?
    All the marketing has been and always will be 'The Open'.
    I don’t even see why this is a debate point.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806

    Tony Blair saying the private sector should not be a dirty word in respect of the NHS

    For fun - the NHS is already private. They don’t build hospitals, make beds or syringes or drugs. Or anything else.

    They buy everything from the private sector, including hiring a lot of staff for admin work from contracting companies.

    And that’s before you get to agency staff.

    Using private hospitals etc isn’t a solution. Most of the staff also work in the NHS.

    What makes sense, as with private schools, is looking at what they are doing, and why some things work better.

    Testing, for example. I’m trying to find the study in the US - essentially , if there was any doubt about diagnosis at the initial stage, test for everything, MRI, the works. This saved money, IIRC, though faster diagnosis of complicated cases and earlier treatment.
    More investment required:

    The UK has 6.1 MRI systems per million people, fewer than countries including Estonia and Slovenia. By comparison, the US has 38.1 scanners per million and Germany has 30.5

    https://www.rcr.ac.uk/posts/nhs-must-do-more-future-proof-its-mri-capacity-say-imaging-experts#:~:text=The UK has 6.1 MRI,to estimate future MRI workload.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    edited July 2023

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    YouGov have just sent me a survey and guess what one of the questions is about?



    If it is good enough for YouGov and Tiger Woods then it is good enough for me.

    Except they have to specify when and where it is. So obviously not good enough to call it the Open tout court. Needs to be distinguished from the Open at Berwick upon Tweed Magdalene Fields Golf Club, no?
    I started playing golf at Magdalene Fields Golf Club when I was 11
    Well, quite. So we must be quite clear about which Open this is.

    "Open" could be the one down the road on Saturday week.
    From the nation that gets its knickers in a twist over the spelling of whisk(e)y.
    The English?

    It was BigG who raised it. After Heathener.

  • TazTaz Posts: 15,049

    So much for a consultation.

    Rail staff have been told to prepare for 2,000 job cuts from the closure of ticket offices — even though their fate has not been officially decided yet.

    The Sunday Times has seen confidential documents setting out proposals by the train operators to cut staffing at stations by October, as part of a plan by the Rail Delivery Group to close hundreds of ticket offices.

    Huw Merriman, the rail minister, has justified the closures on the ground that only one in ten tickets are bought in offices, down from a third a decade ago.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2000-job-cuts-train-ticket-offices-uk-consultation-closures-tltbg0qz6

    Presumably there’ll be a legal challenge then.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,806

    So much for a consultation.

    Rail staff have been told to prepare for 2,000 job cuts from the closure of ticket offices — even though their fate has not been officially decided yet.

    The Sunday Times has seen confidential documents setting out proposals by the train operators to cut staffing at stations by October, as part of a plan by the Rail Delivery Group to close hundreds of ticket offices.

    Huw Merriman, the rail minister, has justified the closures on the ground that only one in ten tickets are bought in offices, down from a third a decade ago.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2000-job-cuts-train-ticket-offices-uk-consultation-closures-tltbg0qz6

    Cash fans please explain

    (how they are going to pay).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,718
    Morning all!

    All this dispute over a golf tournament’s name reminds me of the US World Series Baseball. No participation except from the USA.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,393
    edited July 2023


    Th
    Taz said:

    So much for a consultation.

    Rail staff have been told to prepare for 2,000 job cuts from the closure of ticket offices — even though their fate has not been officially decided yet.

    The Sunday Times has seen confidential documents setting out proposals by the train operators to cut staffing at stations by October, as part of a plan by the Rail Delivery Group to close hundreds of ticket offices.

    Huw Merriman, the rail minister, has justified the closures on the ground that only one in ten tickets are bought in offices, down from a third a decade ago.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2000-job-cuts-train-ticket-offices-uk-consultation-closures-tltbg0qz6

    Presumably there’ll be a legal challenge then.
    Not just employment law, but DDA. It's impossible to buy railcard-diuscounted tickets at many stations going on the [edit] ticket machines only, and the current plans for remedying this need years of work. Edit: this is for one thing discrimination against the disabled and the elderly. So instant legal challenge.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,730
    edited July 2023

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    YouGov have just sent me a survey and guess what one of the questions is about?



    If it is good enough for YouGov and Tiger Woods then it is good enough for me.

    Except they have to specify when and where it is. So obviously not good enough to call it the Open tout court. Needs to be distinguished from the Open at Berwick upon Tweed Magdalene Fields Golf Club, no?
    I started playing golf at Magdalene Fields Golf Club when I was 11
    Well, quite. So we must be quite clear about which Open this is.

    "Open" could be the one down the road on Saturday week.
    Or the Moray Open starting the same day !!!!
    It is "The Open", not "The [Random Place] Open". (Where Random Place might include "US").
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,730
    edited July 2023

    Morning all!

    All this dispute over a golf tournament’s name reminds me of the US World Series Baseball. No participation except from the USA.

    Yes, but that's nothing to do with it being a series for the world, it was the name of the sponsor.

    Edit:
    Fact check says this is false...
    https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/world-series/

    Doh!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,972

    So much for a consultation.

    Rail staff have been told to prepare for 2,000 job cuts from the closure of ticket offices — even though their fate has not been officially decided yet.

    The Sunday Times has seen confidential documents setting out proposals by the train operators to cut staffing at stations by October, as part of a plan by the Rail Delivery Group to close hundreds of ticket offices.

    Huw Merriman, the rail minister, has justified the closures on the ground that only one in ten tickets are bought in offices, down from a third a decade ago.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2000-job-cuts-train-ticket-offices-uk-consultation-closures-tltbg0qz6

    The rail ticketing system is specifically complex and punitive. Cutting ticket offices just means more people paying too much by buying the wrong ticket, and more people sanctioned by the stasi that some operators (e.g. CrossCountry) employ to gleefully impose huge penalties on the poor sods on the wrong ticket.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,882



    We might know it as the Open but it is the British Open

    British Open 2023 | Tickets 2023 | Royal Liverpool Golf Club

    Yeah. I mean. It's not even in Liverpool.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 51,148

    Tony Blair saying the private sector should not be a dirty word in respect of the NHS

    For fun - the NHS is already private. They don’t build hospitals, make beds or syringes or drugs. Or anything else.

    They buy everything from the private sector, including hiring a lot of staff for admin work from contracting companies.

    And that’s before you get to agency staff.

    Using private hospitals etc isn’t a solution. Most of the staff also work in the NHS.

    What makes sense, as with private schools, is looking at what they are doing, and why some things work better.

    Testing, for example. I’m trying to find the study in the US - essentially , if there was any doubt about diagnosis at the initial stage, test for everything, MRI, the works. This saved money, IIRC, though faster diagnosis of complicated cases and earlier treatment.
    More investment required:

    The UK has 6.1 MRI systems per million people, fewer than countries including Estonia and Slovenia. By comparison, the US has 38.1 scanners per million and Germany has 30.5

    https://www.rcr.ac.uk/posts/nhs-must-do-more-future-proof-its-mri-capacity-say-imaging-experts#:~:text=The UK has 6.1 MRI,to estimate future MRI workload.
    Because the politicians like investment for the NHS… in lots of low level staff.

    Investment in equipment and automation would improve productivity,
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,256

    Nigelb said:

    Idiot conspiracy theorist denies antisemitism.

    RFK Jr. denies comments on ‘ethnically targeted’ Covid-19 were anti-Semitic
    The longshot presidential candidate suggested that the virus could have been engineered to spare Ashkenazi Jews and Chinese people.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/rfk-jr-covid-19-ethnically-targeted-00106478

    And no, it couldn’t.

    It’s always amusing how much overlap there is between crackpot conspiracy theorists and anti-semites there is

    Antisemitism is possibly the oldest conspiracy theory there is ?
This discussion has been closed.