As 13 year-olds in 1956 on our first school exchange with a French school we found "petards" for sale which you just struck against a match box and threw for the laughs. One boy had a number of these in his school jacket pocket, which went off spontaneously blowing a hole in his jacket. La France eh? Plus ça change …
They don't mess about. The only french funfair I have been to they had 12 bore shotguns in what would be the air rifle range over here, and a caterham super 7 doing the wall of death
Why would one use a car on a wall of death? Much more fun on a motorcycle!
I wonder if the PB motoring fraternity have a view on this scenario that I was faced with picking my son up from a Scouts camp near Orpington today (side thought - why do bad things always seem to happen to me near Orpington?). I came to a road junction where some construction work seemed to be happening and the guy had just put out temporary lights. My light was red and a sign said to wait there. The guy seemed to be having problems with the other lights. Traffic was flowing in the other direction and my light stayed red while a long line of traffic backed up behind me. I called out to the guy to ask if the lights would ever change. He seemed very harassed and shouted to me to stay where I was. Meanwhile people started honking their horns behind me. A guy came up from behind and told me to go. I said I couldn't as the light was red and the construction guy had told me not to go. He said just go anyway, but I refused. People behind started to overtake me and acted like it was all my fault. Eventually the light changed and I left. I'm guessing the whole thing took around 6 or 7 minutes. AITA for following instructions? I was certainly made to feel that way by the impatient drivers of Orpington. They seem to be a bit of a lawless fraternity in those parts.
As 13 year-olds in 1956 on our first school exchange with a French school we found "petards" for sale which you just struck against a match box and threw for the laughs. One boy had a number of these in his school jacket pocket, which went off spontaneously blowing a hole in his jacket. La France eh? Plus ça change …
These days, in the UK anyway, he would probably get weeks of deradicalisation brainwashing, his family's browsing history would be pored over, and then he and his parents would get months of headshrinking therapy.
Yes, and they may drop Moen and go without a specialist spinner at Old Trafford. Possibly Lawrence could come in at three then. He's in good form and it's his natural position.
I doubt Robinson will be fit enough so Anderson obviously replaces him.
Weather forecast is iffy, if you believe the forecasters.
Thing is about Bazball, you often only need three and a half days to complete a test. So even rain is less of an issue. Which is great for Test cricket
Everything about Bazball is great for Test cricket
The focus on Bazball is the batting. Bazball would not be successful without a decent bowling attack. To me, it’s the bowling that has been stand out - getting 20 wickets. Remember the bad old days when England would struggle to pick up 10 wickets in a Test.
The politics at play. If you are Boris or Nad, you want Sunak to own “never won an election, ignominious defeat losing Johnson’s landslide” in the history books. Because it’s now personality politics with some.
The more ideological ones There’s also a lot of politics. If you are Trussite slash and burn Tory, you want to keep Sunak economics in there to own defeat, to discredit it. Their Sunak and Hunt leadership rivals will argue in favour of Sunak economics, straight after a terrible election defeat?
Dorries will resign short of the election, because she is going anyway. She’s probably trying to use leverage of resignation to get something because if Sunak loses all three later this month, they won’t want more self inflicted by elections soon after, so Dorries is holding on to see her leverage increase. Not that I’m convinced they will give her anything. Alternatively, they may already have done a deal, hence she is still there. One thing the resigners done as they resigned was talk up their replacement as being a great candidate, in response Con HQ leaked to media friends the party only has 11% in a seat (according to internal poll) hence sitting MP would be a traitor to resign at this time.
Lots of politics going on. The big one being ideological opponents of Sunak, the slash and burn economists, won’t move against Sunak, they will keep him there and cello tape every policy they don’t like to him. And warm their mallows as he and all that is placed on the electoral bonfire.
@TSE was the Opinium putting Tories on 25% properly published anywhere?
And fair play to you for shouting the Aussies into submission. They looked a little rattled, again!
What a series
If we can win at Old Trafford and take it to the last Test it’ll surely be the greatest Ashes, possibly Test series, of all time whoever wins
You forget the 2005 Ashes, which was insanely good, and wildly swung either way, and went down right to the last half hour - and England won. Probably the single greatest sporting spectacle of my lifetime. The last 9football) World Cup final might actually be second
This is an amazing series, but it's still got a long way to go to beat 2005
But even if it doesn't it is already one of the great Test series of recent memory
And fair play to you for shouting the Aussies into submission. They looked a little rattled, again!
What a series
If we can win at Old Trafford and take it to the last Test it’ll surely be the greatest Ashes, possibly Test series, of all time whoever wins
You forget the 2005 Ashes, which was insanely good, and wildly swung either way, and went down right to the last half hour - and England won. Probably the single greatest sporting spectacle of my lifetime. The last 9football) World Cup final might actually be second
This is an amazing series, but it's still got a long way to go to beat 2005
But even if it doesn't it is already one of the great Test series of recent memory
India vs Australia 2001 is the greatest series in my opinion. The mighty Australians brought down by an inspired Indian team.
I have used ExpressVPN successfully for cricket/sport/drama all over the globe, tho the broadcasters are trying to fight back and thwart them, so you cannot entirely rely on it
Yes, and they may drop Moen and go without a specialist spinner at Old Trafford. Possibly Lawrence could come in at three then. He's in good form and it's his natural position.
I doubt Robinson will be fit enough so Anderson obviously replaces him.
Weather forecast is iffy, if you believe the forecasters.
Thing is about Bazball, you often only need three and a half days to complete a test. So even rain is less of an issue. Which is great for Test cricket
Everything about Bazball is great for Test cricket
The focus on Bazball is the batting. Bazball would not be successful without a decent bowling attack. To me, it’s the bowling that has been stand out - getting 20 wickets. Remember the bad old days when England would struggle to pick up 10 wickets in a Test.
I think it’s also an element where the opposition can’t just rely on England taking traditional approaches to test scenarios. The opposition are faced with the fact that England will chase hard, do the unconventional, refuse to play out for a draw etc so the usual strategies might not apply which messes with planning and psyches. Won’t always work but keeps everyone thinking.
It will evolve in the way other sports do. Take football where the Barça style of possession was killing everyone then the German/Klopp style of “heavy metal football” came along so the Barça possession is everything style had to tweak where we see it’s annoying primacy in Man City which will fall to another tactical approach eventually.
And fair play to you for shouting the Aussies into submission. They looked a little rattled, again!
What a series
If we can win at Old Trafford and take it to the last Test it’ll surely be the greatest Ashes, possibly Test series, of all time whoever wins
You forget the 2005 Ashes, which was insanely good, and wildly swung either way, and went down right to the last half hour - and England won. Probably the single greatest sporting spectacle of my lifetime. The last 9football) World Cup final might actually be second
This is an amazing series, but it's still got a long way to go to beat 2005
But even if it doesn't it is already one of the great Test series of recent memory
India vs Australia 2001 is the greatest series in my opinion. The mighty Australians brought down by an inspired Indian team.
Back when India really cared about Test cricket....
I bet they would again, if they did some bazballing of their own
Excellent classic car show this afternoon on Matching Green and I see England won a Test Match too to get back into the Ashes
Classic cars? I always had you down as interested in old bicycles from Europe.
I'm sure someone once told me you were a fan of 1930s German Raleighs.
I will look at them if there but much more interested in old Morgans
If you fancy trying out a Morgan, there is a guy and his wife who run an experience of bed and breakfast plus a self-drive around the Cotswolds in a Morgan Plus Four. He is based in Shelsley Walsh, Worcs. betwixt the Hill Climb Circuit and the Church. I have ticked that box now and I don't need to ever drive a Morgan again. It wasn't a relaxing drive. My wife bought the experience as a birthday present for me very cheaply on Secret Escapes. If you want to live your inner IDS, it's worth a look.
As Morgans is in Malvern: maybe add Great Malvern Priory now parish kirk is well worth a look, too, as is the spa well and the wintergarden and the Victorian hydropathic ambience galore, like Buxton or Strathpeffer. And walk up the hills to look over to Wales on one side and Cotswold Edge on the other. Bredon Hill in the vale of Severn - Laurie Lee country?.
I passed my driving test in Malvern. Just 2 sets of traffic lights, one on Priory Street/Graham Road the other in the Link and one roundabout at Barnard's Green. One did need to master hill starts. It was in a Mini not in a Morgan!
Great Malvern is looking very tired these days. I am not sure why as it is solid Tory territory.
And fair play to you for shouting the Aussies into submission. They looked a little rattled, again!
What a series
If we can win at Old Trafford and take it to the last Test it’ll surely be the greatest Ashes, possibly Test series, of all time whoever wins
You forget the 2005 Ashes, which was insanely good, and wildly swung either way, and went down right to the last half hour - and England won. Probably the single greatest sporting spectacle of my lifetime. The last 9football) World Cup final might actually be second
This is an amazing series, but it's still got a long way to go to beat 2005
But even if it doesn't it is already one of the great Test series of recent memory
India vs Australia 2001 is the greatest series in my opinion. The mighty Australians brought down by an inspired Indian team.
Back when India really cared about Test cricket....
I bet they would again, if they did some bazballing of their own
They won’t (sadly). The irony is that they have the players to take Bazball to a new level.
And fair play to you for shouting the Aussies into submission. They looked a little rattled, again!
What a series
If we can win at Old Trafford and take it to the last Test it’ll surely be the greatest Ashes, possibly Test series, of all time whoever wins
You forget the 2005 Ashes, which was insanely good, and wildly swung either way, and went down right to the last half hour - and England won. Probably the single greatest sporting spectacle of my lifetime. The last 9football) World Cup final might actually be second
This is an amazing series, but it's still got a long way to go to beat 2005
But even if it doesn't it is already one of the great Test series of recent memory
India vs Australia 2001 is the greatest series in my opinion. The mighty Australians brought down by an inspired Indian team.
Back when India really cared about Test cricket....
I bet they would again, if they did some bazballing of their own
The Brits should have taught the South Asians football, instead of bloody boring cricket!
I wonder if the PB motoring fraternity have a view on this scenario that I was faced with picking my son up from a Scouts camp near Orpington today (side thought - why do bad things always seem to happen to me near Orpington?). I came to a road junction where some construction work seemed to be happening and the guy had just put out temporary lights. My light was red and a sign said to wait there. The guy seemed to be having problems with the other lights. Traffic was flowing in the other direction and my light stayed red while a long line of traffic backed up behind me. I called out to the guy to ask if the lights would ever change. He seemed very harassed and shouted to me to stay where I was. Meanwhile people started honking their horns behind me. A guy came up from behind and told me to go. I said I couldn't as the light was red and the construction guy had told me not to go. He said just go anyway, but I refused. People behind started to overtake me and acted like it was all my fault. Eventually the light changed and I left. I'm guessing the whole thing took around 6 or 7 minutes. AITA for following instructions? I was certainly made to feel that way by the impatient drivers of Orpington. They seem to be a bit of a lawless fraternity in those parts.
I may be wrong but I think temporary lights are not statutory. You can ignore them, although you have to do so safely.
And fair play to you for shouting the Aussies into submission. They looked a little rattled, again!
What a series
If we can win at Old Trafford and take it to the last Test it’ll surely be the greatest Ashes, possibly Test series, of all time whoever wins
You forget the 2005 Ashes, which was insanely good, and wildly swung either way, and went down right to the last half hour - and England won. Probably the single greatest sporting spectacle of my lifetime. The last 9football) World Cup final might actually be second
This is an amazing series, but it's still got a long way to go to beat 2005
But even if it doesn't it is already one of the great Test series of recent memory
I can never forget 2005. I just think this series will be even better if it does go down to the last Test. For us to come back from two down while playing this thrilling style of cricket would be something else
The politics at play. If you are Boris or Nad, you want Sunak to own “never won an election, ignominious defeat losing Johnson’s landslide” in the history books. Because it’s now personality politics with some.
The more ideological ones There’s also a lot of politics. If you are Trussite slash and burn Tory, you want to keep Sunak economics in there to own defeat, to discredit it. Their Sunak and Hunt leadership rivals will argue in favour of Sunak economics, straight after a terrible election defeat?
Dorries will resign short of the election, because she is going anyway. She’s probably trying to use leverage of resignation to get something because if Sunak loses all three later this month, they won’t want more self inflicted by elections soon after, so Dorries is holding on to see her leverage increase. Not that I’m convinced they will give her anything. Alternatively, they may already have done a deal, hence she is still there. One thing the resigners done as they resigned was talk up their replacement as being a great candidate, in response Con HQ leaked to media friends the party only has 11% in a seat (according to internal poll) hence sitting MP would be a traitor to resign at this time.
Lots of politics going on. The big one being ideological opponents of Sunak, the slash and burn economists, won’t move against Sunak, they will keep him there and cello tape every policy they don’t like to him. And warm their mallows as he and all that is placed on the electoral bonfire.
@TSE was the Opinium putting Tories on 25% properly published anywhere?
It’s not the first time we have looked quizzically at the + and - signs from pollsters asking, don’t they know their own shit? I think maybe they doing private polling, for themselves or customers, so the pollsters coms team are looking at a table we haven’t seen.
Excellent classic car show this afternoon on Matching Green and I see England won a Test Match too to get back into the Ashes
Classic cars? I always had you down as interested in old bicycles from Europe.
I'm sure someone once told me you were a fan of 1930s German Raleighs.
I will look at them if there but much more interested in old Morgans
If you fancy trying out a Morgan, there is a guy and his wife who run an experience of bed and breakfast plus a self-drive around the Cotswolds in a Morgan Plus Four. He is based in Shelsley Walsh, Worcs. betwixt the Hill Climb Circuit and the Church. I have ticked that box now and I don't need to ever drive a Morgan again. It wasn't a relaxing drive. My wife bought the experience as a birthday present for me very cheaply on Secret Escapes. If you want to live your inner IDS, it's worth a look.
Will have a look sometime, I lived not far away in Herefordshire for a few years so know the area a bit
The Teme Valley is beautiful. Probably my favourite place anywhere in the UK.
And fair play to you for shouting the Aussies into submission. They looked a little rattled, again!
What a series
If we can win at Old Trafford and take it to the last Test it’ll surely be the greatest Ashes, possibly Test series, of all time whoever wins
You forget the 2005 Ashes, which was insanely good, and wildly swung either way, and went down right to the last half hour - and England won. Probably the single greatest sporting spectacle of my lifetime. The last 9football) World Cup final might actually be second
This is an amazing series, but it's still got a long way to go to beat 2005
But even if it doesn't it is already one of the great Test series of recent memory
India vs Australia 2001 is the greatest series in my opinion. The mighty Australians brought down by an inspired Indian team.
Back when India really cared about Test cricket....
I bet they would again, if they did some bazballing of their own
They won’t (sadly). The irony is that they have the players to take Bazball to a new level.
Twitter is full of Indian (and Pakistani, Bangladeshi) cricket fans saying Please please can we have this kind of test cricket in India. Apparently the ashes is drawing big tv audiences in Asia. So there is a demand
And fair play to you for shouting the Aussies into submission. They looked a little rattled, again!
What a series
If we can win at Old Trafford and take it to the last Test it’ll surely be the greatest Ashes, possibly Test series, of all time whoever wins
You forget the 2005 Ashes, which was insanely good, and wildly swung either way, and went down right to the last half hour - and England won. Probably the single greatest sporting spectacle of my lifetime. The last 9football) World Cup final might actually be second
This is an amazing series, but it's still got a long way to go to beat 2005
But even if it doesn't it is already one of the great Test series of recent memory
I can never forget 2005. I just think this series will be even better if it does go down to the last Test. For us to come back from two down while playing this thrilling style of cricket would be something else
Winning the Ashes after a 2-0 Test deficit was last done by Don Bradman, apparently, so it would certainly be historic
And fair play to you for shouting the Aussies into submission. They looked a little rattled, again!
What a series
If we can win at Old Trafford and take it to the last Test it’ll surely be the greatest Ashes, possibly Test series, of all time whoever wins
You forget the 2005 Ashes, which was insanely good, and wildly swung either way, and went down right to the last half hour - and England won. Probably the single greatest sporting spectacle of my lifetime. The last 9football) World Cup final might actually be second
This is an amazing series, but it's still got a long way to go to beat 2005
But even if it doesn't it is already one of the great Test series of recent memory
India vs Australia 2001 is the greatest series in my opinion. The mighty Australians brought down by an inspired Indian team.
Back when India really cared about Test cricket....
I bet they would again, if they did some bazballing of their own
I wonder if the PB motoring fraternity have a view on this scenario that I was faced with picking my son up from a Scouts camp near Orpington today (side thought - why do bad things always seem to happen to me near Orpington?). I came to a road junction where some construction work seemed to be happening and the guy had just put out temporary lights. My light was red and a sign said to wait there. The guy seemed to be having problems with the other lights. Traffic was flowing in the other direction and my light stayed red while a long line of traffic backed up behind me. I called out to the guy to ask if the lights would ever change. He seemed very harassed and shouted to me to stay where I was. Meanwhile people started honking their horns behind me. A guy came up from behind and told me to go. I said I couldn't as the light was red and the construction guy had told me not to go. He said just go anyway, but I refused. People behind started to overtake me and acted like it was all my fault. Eventually the light changed and I left. I'm guessing the whole thing took around 6 or 7 minutes. AITA for following instructions? I was certainly made to feel that way by the impatient drivers of Orpington. They seem to be a bit of a lawless fraternity in those parts.
I may be wrong but I think temporary lights are not statutory. You can ignore them, although you have to do so safely.
I have used ExpressVPN successfully for cricket/sport/drama all over the globe, tho the broadcasters are trying to fight back and thwart them, so you cannot entirely rely on it
The BBC can see I'm trying to access their stuff from abroad, and they block me accordingly. How difficult would it be for them to pull their finger out and issue us licence-fee payers with the requisite passes to get to see their stuff? I know this doesn't apply to cricket, but it does to their Wimbledon coverage.
I have used ExpressVPN successfully for cricket/sport/drama all over the globe, tho the broadcasters are trying to fight back and thwart them, so you cannot entirely rely on it
Our Now TV has stopped working because it thinks we are using a VPN even though we aren't! Something funny going on with our Internet provider.
I have used ExpressVPN successfully for cricket/sport/drama all over the globe, tho the broadcasters are trying to fight back and thwart them, so you cannot entirely rely on it
The BBC can see I'm trying to access their stuff from abroad, and they block me accordingly. How difficult would it be for them to pull their finger out and issue us licence-fee payers with the requisite passes to get to see their stuff? I know this doesn't apply to cricket, but it does to their Wimbledon coverage.
I've always thought this. It would also be a justification for the licence fee (as the others fall away) - you pay the fee, ergo you can access BBC abroad
However I believe they often have problems with international licensing. Foreign broadcasters pay for BBC programmes and sport and they don't want people watching the original BBC service, by-passing their own
I have used ExpressVPN successfully for cricket/sport/drama all over the globe, tho the broadcasters are trying to fight back and thwart them, so you cannot entirely rely on it
Our Now TV has stopped working because it thinks we are using a VPN even though we aren't! Something funny going on with our Internet provider.
TV broadcasters in general have gotten better at clamping down on VPNs and illegal streaming
And fair play to you for shouting the Aussies into submission. They looked a little rattled, again!
What a series
If we can win at Old Trafford and take it to the last Test it’ll surely be the greatest Ashes, possibly Test series, of all time whoever wins
You forget the 2005 Ashes, which was insanely good, and wildly swung either way, and went down right to the last half hour - and England won. Probably the single greatest sporting spectacle of my lifetime. The last 9football) World Cup final might actually be second
This is an amazing series, but it's still got a long way to go to beat 2005
But even if it doesn't it is already one of the great Test series of recent memory
I can never forget 2005. I just think this series will be even better if it does go down to the last Test. For us to come back from two down while playing this thrilling style of cricket would be something else
2005 was great. England were the up and coming side and had been for a couple of years. The Aussies were past their best, but still a great set of players. The first match saw England tear into the Aussies and bowl them out cheaply, but then McGrath did his stuff and it became a classic Aussie win. And then it all turned with Glenn’s ankle (on that stray cricket ball…). Arguably England dominated the next three matches. The close finish at Edgebaston obscured the fact that the Aussies were massively behind through most of the match. The next match saw the Aussies scrape a draw that they celebrated like a win. Creeping over the line at Trent Bridge was reminiscent of today.
This series has so far had three very close games, that could have gone either way at the end. Fourteen amazing days of cricket. If it ends up 2-2 going to the last match, it will have been some series.
Excellent classic car show this afternoon on Matching Green and I see England won a Test Match too to get back into the Ashes
Classic cars? I always had you down as interested in old bicycles from Europe.
I'm sure someone once told me you were a fan of 1930s German Raleighs.
I will look at them if there but much more interested in old Morgans
If you fancy trying out a Morgan, there is a guy and his wife who run an experience of bed and breakfast plus a self-drive around the Cotswolds in a Morgan Plus Four. He is based in Shelsley Walsh, Worcs. betwixt the Hill Climb Circuit and the Church. I have ticked that box now and I don't need to ever drive a Morgan again. It wasn't a relaxing drive. My wife bought the experience as a birthday present for me very cheaply on Secret Escapes. If you want to live your inner IDS, it's worth a look.
As Morgans is in Malvern: maybe add Great Malvern Priory now parish kirk is well worth a look, too, as is the spa well and the wintergarden and the Victorian hydropathic ambience galore, like Buxton or Strathpeffer. And walk up the hills to look over to Wales on one side and Cotswold Edge on the other. Bredon Hill in the vale of Severn - Laurie Lee country?.
I passed my driving test in Malvern. Just 2 sets of traffic lights, one on Priory Street/Graham Road the other in the Link and one roundabout at Barnard's Green. One did need to master hill starts. It was in a Mini not in a Morgan!
Great Malvern is looking very tired these days. I am not sure why as it is solid Tory territory.
Haven't been for a few years, to tell the truth. The railway station was looking pretty good the last time I was on holiday there, though. (For those who don't know it, it has lovely 'botanical' capitals on the cast iron support columns cum rainwater downpipes for the station canopy.)
I really like Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc. They come over so well in their interviews and seem to me like genuinely nice chaps
It’s easy to get a bit carried away with the heat of the moment of sandpapergate, and stumpinggate. Most are pretty decent chaps. Not quite so sure of Warner, and Smith is obsessional to the point of poor mental health.
Many years ago my village side toured the West Indies, playing local sides. At the same time the Aussies were playing the Windies. Our lads met the Aussies and got on like a house on fire, and ended up as guests at the tests etc. Generally cricketers get on off the field.
The only famous cricketer I've met who I didn't much enjoy meeting was Michael Vaughan. He talked to me (in 2005, a couple of months before the Ashes) as if I were a foreign radio station reporter he was talking to. He's now the new Boycott on TMS
To get interest rates down and mortagage rates down you first need to get inflation down and Sunak is right to concentrate on that first.
The right and ERG also have no interest in challenging Sunak now, from their perspective the election is already lost. So they will let Sunak and Hunt take the blame for it, then try and take over the leadership in Opposition when a likely Labour government would have to deal with the economy
He isn't concentrating on inflation. He's supporting the bank in hammering mortgage holders - he's done the square root of f*** all to reverse inflation by increasing supply of energy and food, and is only belatedly and half-heartedly addressing price gouging.
Sunak and Hunt will already take the blame for the next election, new leader or otherwise.
I wonder if the PB motoring fraternity have a view on this scenario that I was faced with picking my son up from a Scouts camp near Orpington today (side thought - why do bad things always seem to happen to me near Orpington?). I came to a road junction where some construction work seemed to be happening and the guy had just put out temporary lights. My light was red and a sign said to wait there. The guy seemed to be having problems with the other lights. Traffic was flowing in the other direction and my light stayed red while a long line of traffic backed up behind me. I called out to the guy to ask if the lights would ever change. He seemed very harassed and shouted to me to stay where I was. Meanwhile people started honking their horns behind me. A guy came up from behind and told me to go. I said I couldn't as the light was red and the construction guy had told me not to go. He said just go anyway, but I refused. People behind started to overtake me and acted like it was all my fault. Eventually the light changed and I left. I'm guessing the whole thing took around 6 or 7 minutes. AITA for following instructions? I was certainly made to feel that way by the impatient drivers of Orpington. They seem to be a bit of a lawless fraternity in those parts.
I may be wrong but I think temporary lights are not statutory. You can ignore them, although you have to do so safely.
Not a very good prediction, I don't think. It forecasts Labour gains in constituencies where the Labour Party is so weak that it does not hold single council seat. But where, in contrast, the Lib Dems were well enough organised to take control of the council in May.
As an example, take Somerton and Frome... The Lib Dems are the strong favourites to take seat in the byelection - and yet the New Statesman puts this down as a Conservative hold at the next election.
On top of that, the New Statesman is still working on old boundaries....
The politics at play. If you are Boris or Nad, you want Sunak to own “never won an election, ignominious defeat losing Johnson’s landslide” in the history books. Because it’s now personality politics with some.
The more ideological ones There’s also a lot of politics. If you are Trussite slash and burn Tory, you want to keep Sunak economics in there to own defeat, to discredit it. Their Sunak and Hunt leadership rivals will argue in favour of Sunak economics, straight after a terrible election defeat?
Dorries will resign short of the election, because she is going anyway. She’s probably trying to use leverage of resignation to get something because if Sunak loses all three later this month, they won’t want more self inflicted by elections soon after, so Dorries is holding on to see her leverage increase. Not that I’m convinced they will give her anything. Alternatively, they may already have done a deal, hence she is still there. One thing the resigners done as they resigned was talk up their replacement as being a great candidate, in response Con HQ leaked to media friends the party only has 11% in a seat (according to internal poll) hence sitting MP would be a traitor to resign at this time.
Lots of politics going on. The big one being ideological opponents of Sunak, the slash and burn economists, won’t move against Sunak, they will keep him there and cello tape every policy they don’t like to him. And warm their mallows as he and all that is placed on the electoral bonfire.
@TSE was the Opinium putting Tories on 25% properly published anywhere?
It’s not the first time we have looked quizzically at the + and - signs from pollsters asking, don’t they know their own shit? I think maybe they doing private polling, for themselves or customers, so the pollsters coms team are looking at a table we haven’t seen.
Maybe the 25% Gsurding (sic) alluded to TSE pointed to wasn’t done in the same way as the swingback sequence for Observer. 25 raw not swingback added.
Not Sam Curran. They are saying this years Duke's ball go soft after 25-30 overs and don't move too much. Hence the move to bang it in short for over after over come 30 overs. Sam Curran is neither fast enough or consistent enough to bowl when the ball isn't doing anything.
I have used ExpressVPN successfully for cricket/sport/drama all over the globe, tho the broadcasters are trying to fight back and thwart them, so you cannot entirely rely on it
Our Now TV has stopped working because it thinks we are using a VPN even though we aren't! Something funny going on with our Internet provider.
TV broadcasters in general have gotten better at clamping down on VPNs and illegal streaming
Not on illegal streaming they haven't. They got special legal powers to in real time to demand UK ISPs to block IP of sites streaming EPL, but simple use of a VPN bypasses this.
IPTV services are constantly been shut down, but a new one pops up straight away.
I wonder if the PB motoring fraternity have a view on this scenario that I was faced with picking my son up from a Scouts camp near Orpington today (side thought - why do bad things always seem to happen to me near Orpington?). I came to a road junction where some construction work seemed to be happening and the guy had just put out temporary lights. My light was red and a sign said to wait there. The guy seemed to be having problems with the other lights. Traffic was flowing in the other direction and my light stayed red while a long line of traffic backed up behind me. I called out to the guy to ask if the lights would ever change. He seemed very harassed and shouted to me to stay where I was. Meanwhile people started honking their horns behind me. A guy came up from behind and told me to go. I said I couldn't as the light was red and the construction guy had told me not to go. He said just go anyway, but I refused. People behind started to overtake me and acted like it was all my fault. Eventually the light changed and I left. I'm guessing the whole thing took around 6 or 7 minutes. AITA for following instructions? I was certainly made to feel that way by the impatient drivers of Orpington. They seem to be a bit of a lawless fraternity in those parts.
I would assume everyone would wait 3 minutes in such a scenario and no-one would wait 20 minutes. There isn't a right answer in between. 5 minutes probably about right to start to ignore it imo - as long as can be done safely of course.
Not Sam Curran. They are saying this years Duke's ball go soft after 25-30 overs and don't move too much. Hence the move to bang it in short for over after over come 30 overs. Sam Curran is neither fast enough or consistent enough to bowl when the ball isn't doing anything.
He's a fine batsman, an excellent catcher and fielder, and he bowls well enough to take plenty of wickets in all formats. He'd be a handy option with Root doing the spin
I see we won the cricket - I can only imagine one or two were throwing in the towel at 171-6 with Stokes and Bairstow both back in the pavillion. The second test confirms what the first told us - these are two well matched teams and we can but hope it'll be as entertaining from here on.
Entertaining may not describe the state of British politics adequately currently. A better poll for the Conservatives from Opinium but let's see if the new week's polls continue the "improvement".
The YouGov data tables provide few surprises - of the 2019 Conservative vote, 37% stays loyal, 24% Don't Know, 12% Reform and 11% Labour. Overall, 17% are in the Don't Know camp. The England sub sample has Labour 25 points ahead of the Conservatives so that's a colossal 19% swing from December 2019.
We now await July 20th (yes, I know vitally important Newham by-elections this week).
Not a very good prediction, I don't think. It forecasts Labour gains in constituencies where the Labour Party is so weak that it does not hold single council seat. But where, in contrast, the Lib Dems were well enough organised to take control of the council in May.
As an example, take Somerton and Frome... The Lib Dems are the strong favourites to take seat in the byelection - and yet the New Statesman puts this down as a Conservative hold at the next election.
On top of that, the New Statesman is still working on old boundaries....
Complete rubbish from the New Statesman.
These seat predictions just struggle to reflect the dynamics in seats where there are 3 contenders, or where the 3rd place last time is now in contention to win. Understandably.
I do wonder if voters themselves carry around certain assumptions of what ought to be a Labour or Lib Dem seat. If they live in a leafy rural constituency with a cathedral and more rugby than football pitches many just assume it’s a Lib Dem target and vote accordingly, even if Labour were second last time.
Likewise if there’s anything resembling a canalside restaurant and flat development in former red brick warehouses and/or a local premier league football team they’ll write off the Lib Dems and vote Labour.
I have used ExpressVPN successfully for cricket/sport/drama all over the globe, tho the broadcasters are trying to fight back and thwart them, so you cannot entirely rely on it
Our Now TV has stopped working because it thinks we are using a VPN even though we aren't! Something funny going on with our Internet provider.
TV broadcasters in general have gotten better at clamping down on VPNs and illegal streaming
Not on illegal streaming they haven't. They got special legal powers to in real time to demand UK ISPs to block IP of sites streaming EPL, but simple use of a VPN bypasses this.
IPTV services are constantly been shut down, but a new one pops up straight away.
Big jail sentences recently for some illegal streamers who made a fortune and were a weird mix of high and low tech.
Not a very good prediction, I don't think. It forecasts Labour gains in constituencies where the Labour Party is so weak that it does not hold single council seat. But where, in contrast, the Lib Dems were well enough organised to take control of the council in May.
As an example, take Somerton and Frome... The Lib Dems are the strong favourites to take seat in the byelection - and yet the New Statesman puts this down as a Conservative hold at the next election.
On top of that, the New Statesman is still working on old boundaries....
Complete rubbish from the New Statesman.
“Complete rubbish from the New Statesman.”
I actually agree with you. Why single out one media source to call rubbish though? sky used a poll of polls this morning, whilst methodologies are different, Opinium have swingback, YouGov low Tory scores with high Reform. Some pollsters weekly, others (Ipsos, Survation) monthly so older data, others like Kantor even more infrequent than that. Which polls you pick gives you different data source than someone elses chosen polls, and how you use the data source for seat calculator is different again.
At a guess from distance, the New Statesman calculator is using current polling applied uniform swing. In your post you explained to the media exactly why that is indeed rubbish, and not serving us, the people. Do Sky and New Statesman trust Opinium as a pollster? Yesterday they gave LibDem’s 9 and Ref 8, hence LibDems targets, as you point out where they have bossed the Tories in every locals since 2019, are Tory hold using that data set and uniform swing (likely with Labour getting more votes there than LibDems).
In this particular 2024 election how many seats will match uniform swing? Lazy from the media? Are they actually doing more harm than good, publishing something that immediately looks inexplicable and indefensible from our point of view? Or are they all hampered by what voters will surely do next year, what voters already know they will do, just isn’t being picked up by voters - the lack of the Dutch Salute.
How do you intend to vote? Voting Labour. No you’re not and you know you’re not, you are voting Libdem, why can’t you just be honest with the pollster?
The Dutch Salute isn’t about predicting next election, it’s saying Tories about 200+ seats with not single bite of tactical voting against them, 140 seats with tactical voting doing mayhem in blue wall and southern England - but what we expect will happen, the polling is not giving us. And the rubbish polls, like Opinium yesterday and the New Statesmans seat calc, actually start with voters note being honest with pollster.
You see, based on what you explained in your post why it’s rubbish, we could produce a seat calculator on PB we will be much happier with, but we would be diverting from the actual raw data pollsters are currently getting, and diverting from uniform swing into our own methodology.
On the other hand, I really don’t think it’s that hard to produce a table that has uniform swing as it’s base, with the ability to add tactical vote of your choosing into a box to see what it does to individual seat or across all of them, and use genuine knowledge not merely hunch, on how you manipulate each seat, annual council results, recent by elections, such things that show LLG and Ref2con movements in real elections.
Just incidentally, is the New Statesman model giving Black Country seats like Walsall that Labour definitely don’t win next year to them, just to prove how crap it is?
I wonder if the PB motoring fraternity have a view on this scenario that I was faced with picking my son up from a Scouts camp near Orpington today (side thought - why do bad things always seem to happen to me near Orpington?). I came to a road junction where some construction work seemed to be happening and the guy had just put out temporary lights. My light was red and a sign said to wait there. The guy seemed to be having problems with the other lights. Traffic was flowing in the other direction and my light stayed red while a long line of traffic backed up behind me. I called out to the guy to ask if the lights would ever change. He seemed very harassed and shouted to me to stay where I was. Meanwhile people started honking their horns behind me. A guy came up from behind and told me to go. I said I couldn't as the light was red and the construction guy had told me not to go. He said just go anyway, but I refused. People behind started to overtake me and acted like it was all my fault. Eventually the light changed and I left. I'm guessing the whole thing took around 6 or 7 minutes. AITA for following instructions? I was certainly made to feel that way by the impatient drivers of Orpington. They seem to be a bit of a lawless fraternity in those parts.
You’re in the right, to be following instructions from the people working on the road. They have rules to follow, for safety reasons, and their day isn’t made better by drivers deciding to do their own thing.
The marginal cases are when the temporary lights are clearly stuck, and you are sitting at a red for several minutes with no workers around.
I see we won the cricket - I can only imagine one or two were throwing in the towel at 171-6 with Stokes and Bairstow both back in the pavillion. The second test confirms what the first told us - these are two well matched teams and we can but hope it'll be as entertaining from here on.
Entertaining may not describe the state of British politics adequately currently. A better poll for the Conservatives from Opinium but let's see if the new week's polls continue the "improvement".
The YouGov data tables provide few surprises - of the 2019 Conservative vote, 37% stays loyal, 24% Don't Know, 12% Reform and 11% Labour. Overall, 17% are in the Don't Know camp. The England sub sample has Labour 25 points ahead of the Conservatives so that's a colossal 19% swing from December 2019.
We now await July 20th (yes, I know vitally important Newham by-elections this week).
This was the third test. But it still confirms what previous two told us, Aussies not living up to the hype from things like 3 batsman in top 4 in world ratings.
Are you going with the good Opinium narrative? Did the Scottish Sub Sample have Cons knocking on the door of PV win in Scotland, something like that not make you think it’s rogue? Sunday 9th I predict a lower con from the next Opinium, whenever it’s published.
I see we won the cricket - I can only imagine one or two were throwing in the towel at 171-6 with Stokes and Bairstow both back in the pavillion. The second test confirms what the first told us - these are two well matched teams and we can but hope it'll be as entertaining from here on.
Entertaining may not describe the state of British politics adequately currently. A better poll for the Conservatives from Opinium but let's see if the new week's polls continue the "improvement".
The YouGov data tables provide few surprises - of the 2019 Conservative vote, 37% stays loyal, 24% Don't Know, 12% Reform and 11% Labour. Overall, 17% are in the Don't Know camp. The England sub sample has Labour 25 points ahead of the Conservatives so that's a colossal 19% swing from December 2019.
We now await July 20th (yes, I know vitally important Newham by-elections this week).
This was the third test. But it still confirms what previous two told us, Aussies not living up to the hype from things like 3 batsman in top 4 in world ratings.
Are you going with the good Opinium narrative? Did the Scottish Sub Sample have Cons knocking on the door of PV win in Scotland, something like that not make you think it’s rogue? Sunday 9th I predict a lower con from the next Opinium, whenever it’s published.
I've been told to ignore sub samples by the so-called experts on here but I won't.
You're right about the Scottish sample - the killer for me is the south sample which has Labour ahead by 14. That's impressive in an area which the Conservatives won by 30 points last time and is a much bigger swing than Labour is getting in the Midlands for example.
As for the cricket, which, as you can tell, I don't follow too closely Australia are 2-1 up with two to play so a win or a ddraw out of the last two will do. The long range weather charts don't offer much encouragement in terms of five uninterrupted days but as we seem only to need three these days perhaps those looking to back the draw will once again be disappointed.
Comments
https://www.opinium.com/polling-tables-archive/
VI polls 5th July, 21st June, 7th June.
This is an amazing series, but it's still got a long way to go to beat 2005
But even if it doesn't it is already one of the great Test series of recent memory
I have used ExpressVPN successfully for cricket/sport/drama all over the globe, tho the broadcasters are trying to fight back and thwart them, so you cannot entirely rely on it
It will evolve in the way other sports do. Take football where the Barça style of possession was killing everyone then the German/Klopp style of “heavy metal football” came along so the Barça possession is everything style had to tweak where we see it’s annoying primacy in Man City which will fall to another tactical approach eventually.
I bet they would again, if they did some bazballing of their own
Great Malvern is looking very tired these days. I am not sure why as it is solid Tory territory.
Sur l'eau sacrée d'un fleuve Parisien"
Sur le Gange ou l'Amazone
Chez les Blacks, chez les Sikhs, chez les Jaunes
Voyage, voyage
Dans tout le royaume
http://shelsley-walsh-hotel.co.uk/Shelsley_Walsh/Home.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerala_Blasters_FC
https://www.highwaycodeuk.co.uk/other-stopping-procedures.html
which refers to -
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1988/52/section/36#:~:text=has been lawfully placed on,is guilty of an offence.
I know this doesn't apply to cricket, but it does to their Wimbledon coverage.
However I believe they often have problems with international licensing. Foreign broadcasters pay for BBC programmes and sport and they don't want people watching the original BBC service, by-passing their own
Apparently, anyhoo. I am not an expert!
This series has so far had three very close games, that could have gone either way at the end. Fourteen amazing days of cricket. If it ends up 2-2 going to the last match, it will have been some series.
Sunak and Hunt will already take the blame for the next election, new leader or otherwise.
Bring in Foakes, Anderson and Sam Curran
They are much more common these days than they once were and are often neither useful nor necessary, which encourages non-compliance.
As an example, take Somerton and Frome... The Lib Dems are the strong favourites to take seat in the byelection - and yet the New Statesman puts this down as a Conservative hold at the next election.
On top of that, the New Statesman is still working on old boundaries....
Complete rubbish from the New Statesman.
IPTV services are constantly been shut down, but a new one pops up straight away.
I see we won the cricket - I can only imagine one or two were throwing in the towel at 171-6 with Stokes and Bairstow both back in the pavillion. The second test confirms what the first told us - these are two well matched teams and we can but hope it'll be as entertaining from here on.
Entertaining may not describe the state of British politics adequately currently. A better poll for the Conservatives from Opinium but let's see if the new week's polls continue the "improvement".
The YouGov data tables provide few surprises - of the 2019 Conservative vote, 37% stays loyal, 24% Don't Know, 12% Reform and 11% Labour. Overall, 17% are in the Don't Know camp. The England sub sample has Labour 25 points ahead of the Conservatives so that's a colossal 19% swing from December 2019.
We now await July 20th (yes, I know vitally important Newham by-elections this week).
I do wonder if voters themselves carry around certain assumptions of what ought to be a Labour or Lib Dem seat. If they live in a leafy rural constituency with a cathedral and more rugby than football pitches many just assume it’s a Lib Dem target and vote accordingly, even if Labour were second last time.
Likewise if there’s anything resembling a canalside restaurant and flat development in former red brick warehouses and/or a local premier league football team they’ll write off the Lib Dems and vote Labour.
I actually agree with you. Why single out one media source to call rubbish though? sky used a poll of polls this morning, whilst methodologies are different, Opinium have swingback, YouGov low Tory scores with high Reform. Some pollsters weekly, others (Ipsos, Survation) monthly so older data, others like Kantor even more infrequent than that. Which polls you pick gives you different data source than someone elses chosen polls, and how you use the data source for seat calculator is different again.
At a guess from distance, the New Statesman calculator is using current polling applied uniform swing. In your post you explained to the media exactly why that is indeed rubbish, and not serving us, the people. Do Sky and New Statesman trust Opinium as a pollster? Yesterday they gave LibDem’s 9 and Ref 8, hence LibDems targets, as you point out where they have bossed the Tories in every locals since 2019, are Tory hold using that data set and uniform swing (likely with Labour getting more votes there than LibDems).
In this particular 2024 election how many seats will match uniform swing? Lazy from the media? Are they actually doing more harm than good, publishing something that immediately looks inexplicable and indefensible from our point of view? Or are they all hampered by what voters will surely do next year, what voters already know they will do, just isn’t being picked up by voters - the lack of the Dutch Salute.
How do you intend to vote?
Voting Labour.
No you’re not and you know you’re not, you are voting Libdem, why can’t you just be honest with the pollster?
The Dutch Salute isn’t about predicting next election, it’s saying Tories about 200+ seats with not single bite of tactical voting against them, 140 seats with tactical voting doing mayhem in blue wall and southern England - but what we expect will happen, the polling is not giving us. And the rubbish polls, like Opinium yesterday and the New Statesmans seat calc, actually start with voters note being honest with pollster.
You see, based on what you explained in your post why it’s rubbish, we could produce a seat calculator on PB we will be much happier with, but we would be diverting from the actual raw data pollsters are currently getting, and diverting from uniform swing into our own methodology.
On the other hand, I really don’t think it’s that hard to produce a table that has uniform swing as it’s base, with the ability to add tactical vote of your choosing into a box to see what it does to individual seat or across all of them, and use genuine knowledge not merely hunch, on how you manipulate each seat, annual council results, recent by elections, such things that show LLG and Ref2con movements in real elections.
Just incidentally, is the New Statesman model giving Black Country seats like Walsall that Labour definitely don’t win next year to them, just to prove how crap it is?
The marginal cases are when the temporary lights are clearly stuck, and you are sitting at a red for several minutes with no workers around.
Are you going with the good Opinium narrative? Did the Scottish Sub Sample have Cons knocking on the door of PV win in Scotland, something like that not make you think it’s rogue? Sunday 9th I predict a lower con from the next Opinium, whenever it’s published.
It probably was for them.
You're right about the Scottish sample - the killer for me is the south sample which has Labour ahead by 14. That's impressive in an area which the Conservatives won by 30 points last time and is a much bigger swing than Labour is getting in the Midlands for example.
As for the cricket, which, as you can tell, I don't follow too closely Australia are 2-1 up with two to play so a win or a ddraw out of the last two will do. The long range weather charts don't offer much encouragement in terms of five uninterrupted days but as we seem only to need three these days perhaps those looking to back the draw will once again be disappointed.