The LAB lead continues to stay in double figures – politicalbetting.com
The LAB lead continues to stay in double figures – politicalbetting.com
The table shows all the published GB Westminster voting polls over the last three weeks and as can be seen the Tory deficit remains in double figures. It did get a bit closer in the later Deltapoll but still above 10%.
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But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
As an aside I wonder why it took three years for the video to come to light. Who was biding their time and why? Why did no-one in the video consider how it might look if the video was leaked?
Also symptomatic of where I think the UK systematically stuffed up. By wanting to go soft, the UK government ended up having to go hard for longer to make up lost ground.
As for the actual.youngsters in the videos, I can sympathise. You probably have to go back to the 1940e for British young people to have such a rubbish youth.
Much harder to sympathise for grownups, assuming Jacob Rees-Mogg is a grown-up;
You are all very carefully socially distanced...we have moved, I am pleased to tell you, from the metric back to the Imperial system.
"I notice you are all at least two inches away from each other which is, as I understand it, what the regulations require.”
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tory-minister-jacob-rees-mogg-25647589
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
It’s only the absurd FPTP stitch up that makes this anything other than terminal for the government.
Now there's only emptiness, nothing to say.
The elite suburban enclaves round major cities in the blue states are still doing fine.
However the central areas of blue state cities like san francisco and denver are in steep decline.
Many of the towns in the red state areas are struggling.
This reflects a hopelessly split country with the top 10 to 20 % doing well...the rest not so much.
"Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ
@CalibreObscura
#Ukraine The Russian Army sent a T-54/55 VBIED filled with 6 tonnes of TNT at AFU lines near Marinka, Donetsk Oblast.
The attempt failed as the remotely-controlled bomb ran into a mine 100m from the front line, and was then hit by a Ukrainian RPG shot, causing a huge explosion."
https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1670510694838546436
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Original.
previous election, as in 1997, but don't yet
assign a single one of those votes elsewhere
you end up with:
Con 44 * 0.67 = 29/85 = 34%
LAB 32/85 = 37.5%
Further, if you count in around 1m new voters (young and immigrant), and 2m deceased since 2019 without the usual counterbalance of the rest of the electorate aging rightwards, you can add several hundred thousand to the start point lead, leaving Labour near 40%.
A Labour starting close to 40% before gaining a single switcher can get further into the 40s on far less effort than if you imagine them starting on 32%.
Switching models still treat the electorate as closed systems of voters, which can be a long way from correct.
The betting market rates this as a 42% probability, which is far higher than the probability apparently suggested by comments here.
I'll find out whether I can invest in the party leadership pair-up at the next GE being something other than Sunak-Starmer. Recall that Starmer promised to resign if he was fined over having a drink while standing 199 centimetres from someone else, or whatever it was. Having encouraged a permanent secretary to agree to come and work for him, who afterwards gets told she'd have been sacked on the spot if anyone had found out at the time, won't look good for the right honourable and learned gentleman at all. He is clearly a man of such honour that he would want to resign rather than to stay as LOTO with even the mere hint of a spot tarnishing what would otherwise be his squeaky clean reputation.
I have seen grinding poverty in America.
Many moons ago I dated a girl from Denver. She'd grown up in a trailer less than an hour from the City, in a place that had once had a silver mine. We visited her friends who still lived there. It was poverty like nothing I've seen out of Africa. No-one had jobs. Few people had made it through to graduate high school. Pregnancies at 14 or 15 were common. There was no crystal meth in those days, but there was home brewed alcohol and when the check from the government had arrived, there was cheap vodka from the boarded up general store.
There were no jobs. No money. No education. No hope.
When she took me to meet her friends, I found myself in this parallel universe without clean running water and where electricity was from a generator running off stolen diesel.
My friend got out of there. But she was the exception. Most people never did.
I'm sure than ramschakle collection of trailers is still there. I'm not sure how many of those people will still be alive.
But what I do know is that poverty for the bottom 5 to 10% in the US is terrifyingly awful.
Almost every one I know who's been there has described it as some sort of scenic idyll.
After all, same store sales measure bricks and mortar sales, and the world is going online.
Why not check out the DJ Resstaraunts Index, which has been an absolute stunner this year.
And its citizens might have other ideas.
I've also met a clearly disproportionate number of somehow friendly and pleasantly open-minded people from both these states of Maine and Vermont, over the years.
Perhaps Abbie Hoffman was right about the USA being just another Latin American dictatorship.
Live in America long enough and you simply cease to notice or question the grotesque social inequality.
Russia too, obvs. Though in time a new Lenin may emerge to exterminate the oligarchs and their lackeys.
Both far better than Russia obviously, where the rich fly to Germany for treatment, while the rural poor just die.
Popping up with cynicism coupled with no discernable worldview, not even Leon's pound shop Taki impersonation, is in fact not convincing anybody.
Perhaps because you can only get real food if you hunt out an expensive and usually crowded fake farm shop (fake because there’s usually no farm).
And who also rides bareback.
Cancer deaths in Russia far exceed other European countries. Endemic alcoholism and poverty are most of the reason.
Bit weird of you, though.
I think that Labour's offerings so far in this area and in taxation are lacking in credibility and this will put some people off, especially former Tory voters who are answering "don't know" at the moment. I agree with Mike on this one.
But I also think people are fed up of the Tories and Labour will win a small majority with the help of Scotland. SKS is not inspirational, this will be nothing like 1997, but it will be enough to look reasonably safe, if somewhat boring.
My guess is Labour will win the popular vote by 8-10%, nothing like the figure we are seeing in some of these polls, particularly from the new entrants.
Most voters I suspect would hang the lot of them without a second thought. Even twice if that's what it took!
And for another point, why do you exclude the possibility that people are able to remain sincerely outraged when they encounter reinforcement of their dislike? Are there things that you know perfectly well that still irritate you when they crop up? I suspect the answer is yes.
I think your characterisation of it as confected to be a projection of motivation that is unwarranted and, unusually, rather lazy as well - just because people know Boris is a liar does not mean they knew the specific lies in play here. For instance, I was unaware that one of his primary defences was that in effect the Covid guidance meant nothing, since he claims to have believed that so long as you said you could not abide by it, that made it fine.
And since his defenders are spending plenty of time getting outraged about the whole affair, which you do not touch upon so I assume you do not find their reaction confected, why would it be unreasonable for people to likewise respond to that outrage and defence?
As correcthorsebat implies, your contention does not pass the 'if the other side did it' test. Are we not to hear how Keir is boring? Did we ever truly tire of hearing how Corbyn was unsuitable over and over? I think not.
It's a moan that people are bringing up something dressed up as something else. But it was a major event, as seen by Boris moaning about it so much, your moan makes no sense - how dare people go on again about a new event happening in the news!
I hope a double murderer tries the defence at trial though. You've already proven I killed that one man, why bang on about the other one?
Relying on external processes and opposition MPs to chuck him out into the snow isn't enough.
And if everyone knew Boris was a liar, why did the Conservatives put him before the country as a potential PM?
From the contract there's no turning back
The turning point of a career
In Korea being insincere
The holiday was fun packed
The contract still intact
The grabbing hands grab all they can
All for themselves after all
The grabbing hands grab all they can
All for themselves after all
It's a competitive world
Everything counts in large amounts
The graph on the wall
Tells the story of it all
Picture it now, see just how
The lies and deceit gained a little more power
Confidence taken in
By a sun tan and a grin
The grabbing hands grab all they can
All for themselves after all
The grabbing hands grab all they can
All for themselves after all
It's a competitive world
Everything counts in large amounts
Everything counts in large amounts
The grabbing hands grab all they can
Everything counts in large amounts
The grabbing hands grab all they can
Everything counts in large amounts
Though in their proposed conquest, and subjecation of native populations it is Russia and China that are the colonialists.
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4054578-barr-bolton-kelly-line-up-to-condemn-trump/
Christie, Barr compare Trump to a child
https://thehill.com/homenews/4056128-christie-barr-compare-trump-to-a-child/
Left wing advisor had idea.
Sacked advisor.
Peter Mandelson on the phone: 'don't do this'
Rinse and repeat
- No pronoun or uniform change without parental consent
- No hiding changes from parents
- Head can say no to protect other kids
- Competitive sport protected - gender questioning pupils banned
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1670545643390091267
I believe you were a fan of the Cixin Liu series starting with the "Three Body Problem". Netflix have dramatised it and the trailer is now out. You can find it here:
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lj99Uz1d50&t=1s
Trailer breakdown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOD9PdkXiw8
Breakdown of the book series and associated stuff: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLRXGGVBzHLUfIzEhovpQJ2ENiNvJoOD2A
He is a scumbag.
“ @ Leon claims he is going to a variety of areas but as far as I can tell he is doing the US equivalent of travelling from Bradford to Hull”
You seem to have forgotten I spent four days on the east coast including 3 in the nation’s capital, which is literally the richest place in the USA
Moreover, I have in the last two years been to Florida California Arizona Utah Colorado Mississippi Louisiana Alabama Tennessee and New York. I suspect I have seen more of America than you guys who live there. Which makes sense. I come here to travel and experience America, you live and work here with families and when you want an American holiday you go to an obviously nice affluent bit - like upscale New England
I stand by my judgment. Parts of the east coast are doing just fine. Flourishing and opulent. As I’ve said before Alexandria VA was the nicest of all the towns I visited. It could have been a quietly ritzy town in Austria or Australia. DC was boring (museums apart) but still clearly wealthy
But go inland to the more neglected bits and it is very different. And even some of the richer cities - Denver is a prime example - have desolate downtowns. Destroyed by covid and now predated by drugs and druggies