The LAB lead continues to stay in double figures – politicalbetting.com
The table shows all the published GB Westminster voting polls over the last three weeks and as can be seen the Tory deficit remains in double figures. It did get a bit closer in the later Deltapoll but still above 10%.
A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.
But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.
But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
Its that combined with the fearmongering of the govt like the look them in the eyes advert that sticks in the craw.
A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.
But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
It's kids like these who got the FPNs, and there was Johnson living it large at his Abba party. What's the name of the game?
A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.
But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
I feel guilty about this.given the sacrifices people made during lockdown to keep the rest of us safe, but that video is laugh-aloud hilarious. It's a perfectly scripted noughties TV political comedy show with the slick young men stage whispering their dialogue and the drunken disco dancing in the background in Christmas jumpers.
As an aside I wonder why it took three years for the video to come to light. Who was biding their time and why? Why did no-one in the video consider how it might look if the video was leaked?
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.
But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
Its that combined with the fearmongering of the govt like the look them in the eyes advert that sticks in the craw.
Downside of Government By Nudge, which I think goes back to the Cameron years. It sounds liberal (you're not actually banning/enforcing stuff) and cheap (a few ads are way cheaper than enforcing a new law). But beyond a certain point, the ads have to be borderline horrific to get the desired effect.
Also symptomatic of where I think the UK systematically stuffed up. By wanting to go soft, the UK government ended up having to go hard for longer to make up lost ground.
As for the actual.youngsters in the videos, I can sympathise. You probably have to go back to the 1940e for British young people to have such a rubbish youth.
Much harder to sympathise for grownups, assuming Jacob Rees-Mogg is a grown-up;
You are all very carefully socially distanced...we have moved, I am pleased to tell you, from the metric back to the Imperial system.
"I notice you are all at least two inches away from each other which is, as I understand it, what the regulations require.”
A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.
But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
Its that combined with the fearmongering of the govt like the look them in the eyes advert that sticks in the craw.
Downside of Government By Nudge, which I think goes back to the Cameron years. It sounds liberal (you're not actually banning/enforcing stuff) and cheap (a few ads are way cheaper than enforcing a new law). But beyond a certain point, the ads have to be borderline horrific to get the desired effect.
Also symptomatic of where I think the UK systematically stuffed up. By wanting to go soft, the UK government ended up having to go hard for longer to make up lost ground.
As for the actual.youngsters in the videos, I can sympathise. You probably have to go back to the 1940e for British young people to have such a rubbish youth.
Much harder to sympathise for grownups, assuming Jacob Rees-Mogg is a grown-up;
You are all very carefully socially distanced...we have moved, I am pleased to tell you, from the metric back to the Imperial system.
"I notice you are all at least two inches away from each other which is, as I understand it, what the regulations require.”
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
inequality is particularly nasty in Russia
Especially their squaddies in Ukraine, with a life expectancy in hours and with a bunch of old and unserviceable weapons, up against the finest war machinery NATO has to offer.
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
LAB will get 42% max at the GE but they look on course for 320 seats min!
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
Where do you see Tory prospects of success that they can build on and point to at the next election?
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
I don’t think the Labour rating is as important as the number of people who want the Tories gone. The LLG score, which has hovered between 55 and 65% for over a year.
It’s only the absurd FPTP stitch up that makes this anything other than terminal for the government.
A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.
But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
It's kids like these who got the FPNs, and there was Johnson living it large at his Abba party. What's the name of the game?
In those old familiar rooms, children would play Now there's only emptiness, nothing to say.
Parsing from what leon and rcs have said i think we can say this about the usa. The elite suburban enclaves round major cities in the blue states are still doing fine. However the central areas of blue state cities like san francisco and denver are in steep decline. Many of the towns in the red state areas are struggling. This reflects a hopelessly split country with the top 10 to 20 % doing well...the rest not so much.
I think this is an interesting sign of how Russia's military capability is being degraded, so that they're now improvising asymmetric warfare tactics.
"Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ @CalibreObscura #Ukraine The Russian Army sent a T-54/55 VBIED filled with 6 tonnes of TNT at AFU lines near Marinka, Donetsk Oblast.
The attempt failed as the remotely-controlled bomb ran into a mine 100m from the front line, and was then hit by a Ukrainian RPG shot, causing a huge explosion."
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
You'd need a pretty good reason for thinking that Labour support was at the top of the opinion polling range, rather than nearer the average, but, who knows?
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
I think this is an interesting sign of how Russia's military capability is being degraded, so that they're now improvising asymmetric warfare tactics.
"Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ @CalibreObscura #Ukraine The Russian Army sent a T-54/55 VBIED filled with 6 tonnes of TNT at AFU lines near Marinka, Donetsk Oblast.
The attempt failed as the remotely-controlled bomb ran into a mine 100m from the front line, and was then hit by a Ukrainian RPG shot, causing a huge explosion."
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
You'd need a pretty good reason for thinking that Labour support was at the top of the opinion polling range, rather than nearer the average, but, who knows?
44% is the median figure I think. If you reckon 48% is unbelievable would you be convinced by 44% ?
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
Firstly, why not? The Conservatives have become very unpopular. Where are you expecting those votes to go? The Lib Dems? I'd love that to be true, but really?
Secondly, political obsessives like us get bored of the same stories yeah, but we aren't normal. Most people aren't staring at politics pages.
I like the idea that folk will get so bored of the stories about Tory incompetence/dishonesty/corruption that they’ll go back to voting for them.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Difficult to tell though from just bars and restaurants. People obviously want to go out after covid but may be cutting back on consumers goods. Check out us same store sales and us retail stocks. The data doesnt lie.
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
Firstly, why not? The Conservatives have become very unpopular. Where are you expecting those votes to go? The Lib Dems? I'd love that to be true, but really?
Secondly, political obsessives like us get bored of the same stories yeah, but we aren't normal. Most people aren't staring at politics pages.
If you imagine a start point of the Tories shedding around 1/3 of their vote from the previous election, as in 1997, but don't yet assign a single one of those votes elsewhere you end up with:
Con 44 * 0.67 = 29/85 = 34% LAB 32/85 = 37.5%
Further, if you count in around 1m new voters (young and immigrant), and 2m deceased since 2019 without the usual counterbalance of the rest of the electorate aging rightwards, you can add several hundred thousand to the start point lead, leaving Labour near 40%.
A Labour starting close to 40% before gaining a single switcher can get further into the 40s on far less effort than if you imagine them starting on 32%.
Switching models still treat the electorate as closed systems of voters, which can be a long way from correct.
"My own view is that this could be pretty tight and there is a real chance of Starmer’s party not having an overall majority."
The betting market rates this as a 42% probability, which is far higher than the probability apparently suggested by comments here.
I'll find out whether I can invest in the party leadership pair-up at the next GE being something other than Sunak-Starmer. Recall that Starmer promised to resign if he was fined over having a drink while standing 199 centimetres from someone else, or whatever it was. Having encouraged a permanent secretary to agree to come and work for him, who afterwards gets told she'd have been sacked on the spot if anyone had found out at the time, won't look good for the right honourable and learned gentleman at all. He is clearly a man of such honour that he would want to resign rather than to stay as LOTO with even the mere hint of a spot tarnishing what would otherwise be his squeaky clean reputation.
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
We'll find out with Selby. If Labour are on 48% they'll win it easily.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Following on from this...
I have seen grinding poverty in America.
Many moons ago I dated a girl from Denver. She'd grown up in a trailer less than an hour from the City, in a place that had once had a silver mine. We visited her friends who still lived there. It was poverty like nothing I've seen out of Africa. No-one had jobs. Few people had made it through to graduate high school. Pregnancies at 14 or 15 were common. There was no crystal meth in those days, but there was home brewed alcohol and when the check from the government had arrived, there was cheap vodka from the boarded up general store.
There were no jobs. No money. No education. No hope.
When she took me to meet her friends, I found myself in this parallel universe without clean running water and where electricity was from a generator running off stolen diesel.
My friend got out of there. But she was the exception. Most people never did.
I'm sure than ramschakle collection of trailers is still there. I'm not sure how many of those people will still be alive.
But what I do know is that poverty for the bottom 5 to 10% in the US is terrifyingly awful.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Following on from this...
I have seen grinding poverty in America.
Many moons ago I dated a girl from Denver. She'd grown up in a trailer less than an hour from the City, in a place that had once had a silver mine. We visited her friends who still lived there. It was poverty like nothing I've seen out of Africa. No-one had jobs. Few people had made it through to graduate high school. Pregnancies at 14 or 15 were common. There was no crystal meth in those days, but there was home brewed alcohol and when the check from the government had arrived, there was cheap vodka from the boarded up general store.
There were no jobs. No money. No education. No hope.
When she took me to meet her friends, I found myself in this parallel universe without clean running water and where electricity was from a generator running off stolen diesel.
My friend got out of there. But she was the exception. Most people never did.
I'm sure than ramschakle collection of trailers is still there. I'm not sure how many of those people will still be alive.
But what I do know is that poverty for the bottom 5 to 10% in the US is terrifyingly awful.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Difficult to tell though from just bars and restaurants. People obviously want to go out after covid but may be cutting back on consumers goods. Check out us same store sales and us retail stocks. The data doesnt lie.
Why not check out non-farm payrolls?
After all, same store sales measure bricks and mortar sales, and the world is going online.
Why not check out the DJ Resstaraunts Index, which has been an absolute stunner this year.
Vermont, Maine, New England in general, these places still seem a lot happier and more cohesive than some of the places Leon has seen. The North East and the red states.
I've also met a clearly disproportionate number of somehow friendly and pleasantly open-minded people from both these states of Maine and Vermont, over the years.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Difficult to tell though from just bars and restaurants. People obviously want to go out after covid but may be cutting back on consumers goods. Check out us same store sales and us retail stocks. The data doesnt lie.
Why not check out non-farm payrolls?
After all, same store sales measure bricks and mortar sales, and the world is going online.
Why not check out the DJ Resstaraunts Index, which has been an absolute stunner this year.
Ok why is amazon stock doing so bad. Thats the major online retailer. Non farm payrolls growth is due to cash strapped americans taking 2nd jobs.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Following on from this...
I have seen grinding poverty in America.
Many moons ago I dated a girl from Denver. She'd grown up in a trailer less than an hour from the City, in a place that had once had a silver mine. We visited her friends who still lived there. It was poverty like nothing I've seen out of Africa. No-one had jobs. Few people had made it through to graduate high school. Pregnancies at 14 or 15 were common. There was no crystal meth in those days, but there was home brewed alcohol and when the check from the government had arrived, there was cheap vodka from the boarded up general store.
There were no jobs. No money. No education. No hope.
When she took me to meet her friends, I found myself in this parallel universe without clean running water and where electricity was from a generator running off stolen diesel.
My friend got out of there. But she was the exception. Most people never did.
I'm sure than ramschakle collection of trailers is still there. I'm not sure how many of those people will still be alive.
But what I do know is that poverty for the bottom 5 to 10% in the US is terrifyingly awful.
Much of Latin America is similar. Brazil, Colombia, etc.
Perhaps Abbie Hoffman was right about the USA being just another Latin American dictatorship.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
I think though that people get used to stuff.
Live in America long enough and you simply cease to notice or question the grotesque social inequality.
Russia too, obvs. Though in time a new Lenin may emerge to exterminate the oligarchs and their lackeys.
I think this is an interesting sign of how Russia's military capability is being degraded, so that they're now improvising asymmetric warfare tactics.
"Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ @CalibreObscura #Ukraine The Russian Army sent a T-54/55 VBIED filled with 6 tonnes of TNT at AFU lines near Marinka, Donetsk Oblast.
The attempt failed as the remotely-controlled bomb ran into a mine 100m from the front line, and was then hit by a Ukrainian RPG shot, causing a huge explosion."
Genuine LOL for that one. If they want to deliberately blow up a few more of their own tanks, that will be just fine.
Its sort of funny till you realise the poor fuckers in the trench are having to deal with a up armoured IED. Fucking terrifying IMO, maybe Vlad's funnies will try two or three next since they're not short of a T-55.
OK if you have a thing for fat blokes I guess. Won't be long before he is competing with Bozo in that department. And no, I couldn't give a shit if I am being fattist. He needs to get in shape.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Difficult to tell though from just bars and restaurants. People obviously want to go out after covid but may be cutting back on consumers goods. Check out us same store sales and us retail stocks. The data doesnt lie.
Why not check out non-farm payrolls?
After all, same store sales measure bricks and mortar sales, and the world is going online.
Why not check out the DJ Resstaraunts Index, which has been an absolute stunner this year.
Ok why is amazon stock doing so bad. Thats the major online retailer. Non farm payrolls growth is due to cash strapped americans taking 2nd jobs.
Interest rates went up. And presumably if unemployment rises you reckon that's a sign of a strong economy.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
I think though that people get used to stuff.
Live in America long enough and you simply cease to notice or question the grotesque social inequality.
Russia too, obvs. Though in time a new Lenin may dmerge to exterminate the oligarchs and their lackeys.
The american healthcare system produces 2nd class outcomes for 1st class prices. The british nhs produces 3rd class outcomes for 2nd class prices. Which is better.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Difficult to tell though from just bars and restaurants. People obviously want to go out after covid but may be cutting back on consumers goods. Check out us same store sales and us retail stocks. The data doesnt lie.
Why not check out non-farm payrolls?
After all, same store sales measure bricks and mortar sales, and the world is going online.
Why not check out the DJ Resstaraunts Index, which has been an absolute stunner this year.
Ok why is amazon stock doing so bad. Thats the major online retailer. Non farm payrolls growth is due to cash strapped americans taking 2nd jobs.
Most of Amazon's profits are not from the online shopping these days, and there's been a bit of a general post-pandemic reality check for the tech sector.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Difficult to tell though from just bars and restaurants. People obviously want to go out after covid but may be cutting back on consumers goods. Check out us same store sales and us retail stocks. The data doesnt lie.
Why not check out non-farm payrolls?
After all, same store sales measure bricks and mortar sales, and the world is going online.
Why not check out the DJ Resstaraunts Index, which has been an absolute stunner this year.
Ok why is amazon stock doing so bad. Thats the major online retailer. Non farm payrolls growth is due to cash strapped americans taking 2nd jobs.
Amazon is up 47% in the last 6 months.
Yawn the nasdaq has had a massive run this year especially msft and aapl but amzn has seriously lagged. Also my amazon delivery guy always seems in a bad mood now.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
I think though that people get used to stuff.
Live in America long enough and you simply cease to notice or question the grotesque social inequality.
Russia too, obvs. Though in time a new Lenin may dmerge to exterminate the oligarchs and their lackeys.
The american healthcare system produces 2nd class outcomes for 1st class prices. The british nhs produces 3rd class outcomes for 2nd class prices. Which is better.
I don't think you right there. Many outcomes are better in the UK than USA such as neonatal or maternal mortality.
Both far better than Russia obviously, where the rich fly to Germany for treatment, while the rural poor just die.
OK if you have a thing for fat blokes I guess. Won't be long before he is competing with Bozo in that department. And no, I couldn't give a shit if I am being fattist. He needs to get in shape.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
I think though that people get used to stuff.
Live in America long enough and you simply cease to notice or question the grotesque social inequality.
Russia too, obvs. Though in time a new Lenin may dmerge to exterminate the oligarchs and their lackeys.
The american healthcare system produces 2nd class outcomes for 1st class prices. The british nhs produces 3rd class outcomes for 2nd class prices. Which is better.
I don't think you right there. Many outcomes are better in the UK than USA such as neonatal or maternal mortality.
Both far better than Russia obviously, where the rich fly to Germany for treatment, while the rural poor just die.
But not cancer where the nhs seriously lags. Against this however food quality in europe and russia is much higher than the usa.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
I think though that people get used to stuff.
Live in America long enough and you simply cease to notice or question the grotesque social inequality.
Russia too, obvs. Though in time a new Lenin may dmerge to exterminate the oligarchs and their lackeys.
The american healthcare system produces 2nd class outcomes for 1st class prices. The british nhs produces 3rd class outcomes for 2nd class prices. Which is better.
You are a more effortful version of Leon (whose apocalyptic tendencies are, surely, a literary persona).
Popping up with cynicism coupled with no discernable worldview, not even Leon's pound shop Taki impersonation, is in fact not convincing anybody.
OK if you have a thing for fat blokes I guess. Won't be long before he is competing with Bozo in that department. And no, I couldn't give a shit if I am being fattist. He needs to get in shape.
OK if you have a thing for fat blokes I guess. Won't be long before he is competing with Bozo in that department. And no, I couldn't give a shit if I am being fattist. He needs to get in shape.
KS is not fat lol, he plays football once a week
Johnson goes jogging a lot and he’s very fat.
Jogging i very poor exercise. Sprint training combined with strength work is much better. There are world leaders with much better bodies than johnsons due to their exercise programmes.
OK if you have a thing for fat blokes I guess. Won't be long before he is competing with Bozo in that department. And no, I couldn't give a shit if I am being fattist. He needs to get in shape.
Allegedly, far too many lockdown beers and curries?
OK if you have a thing for fat blokes I guess. Won't be long before he is competing with Bozo in that department. And no, I couldn't give a shit if I am being fattist. He needs to get in shape.
KS is not fat lol, he plays football once a week
Johnson goes jogging a lot and he’s very fat.
Jogging i very poor exercise. Sprint training combined with strength work is much better. There are world leaders with much better bodies than johnsons due to their exercise programmes.
Hmmm…would one of them enjoy topless horseback riding perhaps?
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Difficult to tell though from just bars and restaurants. People obviously want to go out after covid but may be cutting back on consumers goods. Check out us same store sales and us retail stocks. The data doesnt lie.
And Americans eat out a lot. Even poorer ones, if eating in your car counts as eating out.
Perhaps because you can only get real food if you hunt out an expensive and usually crowded fake farm shop (fake because there’s usually no farm).
OK if you have a thing for fat blokes I guess. Won't be long before he is competing with Bozo in that department. And no, I couldn't give a shit if I am being fattist. He needs to get in shape.
KS is not fat lol, he plays football once a week
Johnson goes jogging a lot and he’s very fat.
Jogging i very poor exercise. Sprint training combined with strength work is much better. There are world leaders with much better bodies than johnsons due to their exercise programmes.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
I think though that people get used to stuff.
Live in America long enough and you simply cease to notice or question the grotesque social inequality.
Russia too, obvs. Though in time a new Lenin may dmerge to exterminate the oligarchs and their lackeys.
The american healthcare system produces 2nd class outcomes for 1st class prices. The british nhs produces 3rd class outcomes for 2nd class prices. Which is better.
I don't think you right there. Many outcomes are better in the UK than USA such as neonatal or maternal mortality.
Both far better than Russia obviously, where the rich fly to Germany for treatment, while the rural poor just die.
But not cancer where the nhs seriously lags. Against this however food quality in europe and russia is much higher than the usa.
OK if you have a thing for fat blokes I guess. Won't be long before he is competing with Bozo in that department. And no, I couldn't give a shit if I am being fattist. He needs to get in shape.
OK if you have a thing for fat blokes I guess. Won't be long before he is competing with Bozo in that department. And no, I couldn't give a shit if I am being fattist. He needs to get in shape.
KS is not fat lol, he plays football once a week
Johnson goes jogging a lot and he’s very fat.
Jogging i very poor exercise. Sprint training combined with strength work is much better. There are world leaders with much better bodies than johnsons due to their exercise programmes.
Enterprising of you to undertake a comparative study of the bodies and johnsons of world leaders.
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
Where do you see Tory prospects of success that they can build on and point to at the next election?
I think that we are already seeing increased stability in the economy. We will see growth this year instead of a recession and inflation will fall sharply, if remaining well above target. We already have record employment. I would not be at all surprised if the current anaemic growth gets revised up a bit.
I think that Labour's offerings so far in this area and in taxation are lacking in credibility and this will put some people off, especially former Tory voters who are answering "don't know" at the moment. I agree with Mike on this one.
But I also think people are fed up of the Tories and Labour will win a small majority with the help of Scotland. SKS is not inspirational, this will be nothing like 1997, but it will be enough to look reasonably safe, if somewhat boring.
My guess is Labour will win the popular vote by 8-10%, nothing like the figure we are seeing in some of these polls, particularly from the new entrants.
A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.
But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
There shouldn't be any such thing as "the Covid years".
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
Only an extreme Tory devotee would be generous enough to pen that.
Most voters I suspect would hang the lot of them without a second thought. Even twice if that's what it took!
OK if you have a thing for fat blokes I guess. Won't be long before he is competing with Bozo in that department. And no, I couldn't give a shit if I am being fattist. He needs to get in shape.
KS is not fat lol, he plays football once a week
Johnson goes jogging a lot and he’s very fat.
Jogging i very poor exercise. Sprint training combined with strength work is much better. There are world leaders with much better bodies than johnsons due to their exercise programmes.
Indeed, and some like to show their chiselled torso while riding horses. Definitely not the gay ones though. No sir.
OK if you have a thing for fat blokes I guess. Won't be long before he is competing with Bozo in that department. And no, I couldn't give a shit if I am being fattist. He needs to get in shape.
KS is not fat lol, he plays football once a week
Johnson goes jogging a lot and he’s very fat.
Has he ever jogged without a camera crew? 🤔
No one knows. It’s like trees falling in the woods if no one is there…
A thought about the 1 minute video of youngish Tories partying from the Mirror today. Partygate, along with other things, means Tories are toast for a few years. All this we knew.
But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
There shouldn't be any such thing as "the Covid years".
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
We'll find out with Selby. If Labour are on 48% they'll win it easily.
By elections can give a very distorted picture. The local elections gave a more realistic one.
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
We'll find out with Selby. If Labour are on 48% they'll win it easily.
By elections can give a very distorted picture. The local elections gave a more realistic one.
Lib Dems on about 19% then. Really?
I think they will do better, if not quite that well. Neither of the main parties are particularly appetising at the moment and the Lib Dems tend to do much better when the Tories are on the slide, as now.
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
Only an extreme Tory devotee would be generous enough to pen that.
Most voters I suspect would hang the lot of them without a second thought. Even twice if that's what it took!
As I have said in another post I expect Labour to get a small majority. But this confected outrage about Boris is getting wearying. Everyone knew he was a liar. Repeatedly confirming it is pointless.
And, I assume Leon is visiting Kentucky to see the auto manufacturing plants there, though he hasn't mentioned that, yet. According to the governor's office, they employ about 100K workers: https://ced.ky.gov/Existing_Industries/Automotive
(Perhaps someone with more knowledge of your statistics than I can say how that median income, and Kentucky car manufacturing jobs compares to the UK.)
The US absolutely does have serious drug and homeless problems. Some states and cities have sensible policies to reduce them; others don't. The Seattle city council, for example, just voted not to arrest open drug users. (It was a close vote, suggesting that reality may be seeping in, even there.)
But the US also has the resources to cope with those problems.
Ok here’s my summary of America. Having been to six states - Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Kentucky (and DC) in the last two weeks. I’ve been from the 2nd poorest state to one of the richest. I’ve been from tiny towns to your capital, I’ve been from the beauties of Fallingwater to the horrors of Charleston. WV
America is on the verge of terrible, precipitous, absolute decline, based around the implosion of its urban centres, and this is complexly interlinked with covid, drugs, homelessness - in horribly intractable ways. You also have a racial problem based on white guilt and black resentment which feels insoluble. You teeter on the edge of the abyss. You are Rome in about 380AD
In short: America is fucked
Do you have the resources to deal with this? Absolutely. You have 340m people, basically an entire continent, and large intellectual capacity - not least the most powerful tech companies in the world and, still, many of the best universities
But this is probably the most perilous moment for America since the Civil War. You really are in a bad place. The life expectancy stats do not lie. I don’t need to go to a fucking car factory to change my mind. Thailand has car factories - and a higher life expectancy than America
Sort out your towns and cities. Sort out the drugs. Best of luck
Well, you weren't going to come back and say you were positively surprised and no longer inclined toward apocalyptic thinking about almost everything.
Yes, I was. Why would I lie to support a thesis I no longer believe to be true? That’s boring. I came here with a suspicion America is in trouble but a hope that it isn’t.
I’m telling it like I see it. For the sake of balance i think Britain is also badly placed and - despite being a right winger - I have to admit 13 years of Tory government have done almost nothing to solve our grindingly obvious problems
America just feels MORE apocalyptic because it is, and because it is still theoretically the richest nation on earth and the great superpower etc, whereas the reality on the ground is in such stark contrast to the statistics
Now I must drive to the airport
Surely the fundamental problem is inequality. Inequality in wealth, inequality in opportunities and inequality between regions. Unless wealth is shared and used to benefit society as a whole, the kinds of crack in the fabric we now see in the US and UK are inevitable.
Copying something I wrote a couple of weeks ago because I agree with myself:
Inequality isn't the main problem. The problem is inequality that has a near inescapable gravity. There's nothing wrong with getting rich because you work hard at something. But generational inequality, the hoarding of opportunity within a caste, that's wrong.
Very true and the zero interest rate policies of the last 15 years massively boosted rich peoples assets and boosted inequality. Hence difficulty in getting reservations at elite Boston restaurants while Leon chronicles the decay in much of the rest of the country.
Yes, yes, you have a file on me, I know.
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Following on from this...
I have seen grinding poverty in America.
Many moons ago I dated a girl from Denver. She'd grown up in a trailer less than an hour from the City, in a place that had once had a silver mine. We visited her friends who still lived there. It was poverty like nothing I've seen out of Africa. No-one had jobs. Few people had made it through to graduate high school. Pregnancies at 14 or 15 were common. There was no crystal meth in those days, but there was home brewed alcohol and when the check from the government had arrived, there was cheap vodka from the boarded up general store.
There were no jobs. No money. No education. No hope.
When she took me to meet her friends, I found myself in this parallel universe without clean running water and where electricity was from a generator running off stolen diesel.
My friend got out of there. But she was the exception. Most people never did.
I'm sure than ramschakle collection of trailers is still there. I'm not sure how many of those people will still be alive.
But what I do know is that poverty for the bottom 5 to 10% in the US is terrifyingly awful.
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
Only an extreme Tory devotee would be generous enough to pen that.
Most voters I suspect would hang the lot of them without a second thought. Even twice if that's what it took!
As I have said in another post I expect Labour to get a small majority. But this confected outrage about Boris is getting wearying. Everyone knew he was a liar. Repeatedly confirming it is pointless.
And a whole political party propped him up, knowing that better than most. That bears repeating.
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
We'll find out with Selby. If Labour are on 48% they'll win it easily.
By elections can give a very distorted picture. The local elections gave a more realistic one.
Lib Dems on about 19% then. Really?
I think they will do better, if not quite that well. Neither of the main parties are particularly appetising at the moment and the Lib Dems tend to do much better when the Tories are on the slide, as now.
So, where do you think the parties really are? If the Lib Dems are polling at 10% for Westminster, and they got 20% popular vote in the locals which you think are more realistic (I don't agree with this, but). Then what? 17% for Lib Dem?
I really can't say. My gut feel is that the Tories and the Lib Dems will both do better than they are currently polling and Labour will do less well, but probably well enough. Someone downthread suggested a maximum of 42% for Labour. I would agree with that with a fair chunk of the fall going to the Lib Dems whilst the Tories gain most from the don't knows.
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
Only an extreme Tory devotee would be generous enough to pen that.
Most voters I suspect would hang the lot of them without a second thought. Even twice if that's what it took!
As I have said in another post I expect Labour to get a small majority. But this confected outrage about Boris is getting wearying. Everyone knew he was a liar. Repeatedly confirming it is pointless.
You've made some rather big leaps there, in assuming one broad generalisation - that Boris is a liar - should mean that anyone seeing him caught in a lie now expressing upset about that is, in effect, lying about their upset (you may say confected outratge does not equate exactly to lying, but the effect is the same in claiming a lack of sincere expression).
And for another point, why do you exclude the possibility that people are able to remain sincerely outraged when they encounter reinforcement of their dislike? Are there things that you know perfectly well that still irritate you when they crop up? I suspect the answer is yes.
I think your characterisation of it as confected to be a projection of motivation that is unwarranted and, unusually, rather lazy as well - just because people know Boris is a liar does not mean they knew the specific lies in play here. For instance, I was unaware that one of his primary defences was that in effect the Covid guidance meant nothing, since he claims to have believed that so long as you said you could not abide by it, that made it fine.
And since his defenders are spending plenty of time getting outraged about the whole affair, which you do not touch upon so I assume you do not find their reaction confected, why would it be unreasonable for people to likewise respond to that outrage and defence?
As correcthorsebat implies, your contention does not pass the 'if the other side did it' test. Are we not to hear how Keir is boring? Did we ever truly tire of hearing how Corbyn was unsuitable over and over? I think not.
It's a moan that people are bringing up something dressed up as something else. But it was a major event, as seen by Boris moaning about it so much, your moan makes no sense - how dare people go on again about a new event happening in the news!
I hope a double murderer tries the defence at trial though. You've already proven I killed that one man, why bang on about the other one?
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
Only an extreme Tory devotee would be generous enough to pen that.
Most voters I suspect would hang the lot of them without a second thought. Even twice if that's what it took!
As I have said in another post I expect Labour to get a small majority. But this confected outrage about Boris is getting wearying. Everyone knew he was a liar. Repeatedly confirming it is pointless.
The story stops when the Conservatives renounce Boris. They haven't done that yet, and look like fluffing their opportunity tomorrow. See Gove's tightrope walking this morning.
Relying on external processes and opposition MPs to chuck him out into the snow isn't enough.
And if everyone knew Boris was a liar, why did the Conservatives put him before the country as a potential PM?
Does anybody really believe that Labour are on 48%? I don't.
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
Only an extreme Tory devotee would be generous enough to pen that.
Most voters I suspect would hang the lot of them without a second thought. Even twice if that's what it took!
As I have said in another post I expect Labour to get a small majority. But this confected outrage about Boris is getting wearying. Everyone knew he was a liar. Repeatedly confirming it is pointless.
I believe you were a fan of the Cixin Liu series starting with the "Three Body Problem". Netflix have dramatised it and the trailer is now out. You can find it here:
“ @ Leon claims he is going to a variety of areas but as far as I can tell he is doing the US equivalent of travelling from Bradford to Hull”
You seem to have forgotten I spent four days on the east coast including 3 in the nation’s capital, which is literally the richest place in the USA
Moreover, I have in the last two years been to Florida California Arizona Utah Colorado Mississippi Louisiana Alabama Tennessee and New York. I suspect I have seen more of America than you guys who live there. Which makes sense. I come here to travel and experience America, you live and work here with families and when you want an American holiday you go to an obviously nice affluent bit - like upscale New England
I stand by my judgment. Parts of the east coast are doing just fine. Flourishing and opulent. As I’ve said before Alexandria VA was the nicest of all the towns I visited. It could have been a quietly ritzy town in Austria or Australia. DC was boring (museums apart) but still clearly wealthy
But go inland to the more neglected bits and it is very different. And even some of the richer cities - Denver is a prime example - have desolate downtowns. Destroyed by covid and now predated by drugs and druggies
“ @ Leon claims he is going to a variety of areas but as far as I can tell he is doing the US equivalent of travelling from Bradford to Hull”
You seem to have forgotten I spent four days on the east coast including 3 in the nation’s capital, which is literally the richest place in the USA
Moreover, I have in the last two years been to Florida California Arizona Utah Colorado Mississippi Louisiana Alabama Tennessee and New York. I suspect I have seen more of America than you guys who live there. Which makes sense. I come here to travel and experience America, you live and work here with families and when you want an American holiday you go to an obviously nice affluent bit - like upscale New England
I stand by my judgment. Parts of the east coast are doing just fine. Flourishing and opulent. As I’ve said before Alexandria VA was the nicest of all the towns I visited. It could have been a quietly ritzy town in Austria or Australia. DC was boring (museums apart) but still clearly wealthy
But go inland to the more neglected bits and it is very different. And even some of the richer cities - Denver is a prime example - have desolate downtowns. Destroyed by covid and now predated by drugs and druggies
Yes exactly what i say Leon. The elite suburbs of cities in the blue states are doing fine. The rest of the country not so much.
Comments
But watching it a couple of times, I feel slightly differently, and rather feel for the characters in it. Of course they are all working for an outfit in the hands of a PM unfit for office. And young Tories are not popular. But for those of a certain age the Covid years were cruel about love, life and fun. There is something of poetry about the two not very brilliant dancers. Nothing in me wants to criticise them. Young people round here in the far north of England took their random chances too.
As an aside I wonder why it took three years for the video to come to light. Who was biding their time and why? Why did no-one in the video consider how it might look if the video was leaked?
Also symptomatic of where I think the UK systematically stuffed up. By wanting to go soft, the UK government ended up having to go hard for longer to make up lost ground.
As for the actual.youngsters in the videos, I can sympathise. You probably have to go back to the 1940e for British young people to have such a rubbish youth.
Much harder to sympathise for grownups, assuming Jacob Rees-Mogg is a grown-up;
You are all very carefully socially distanced...we have moved, I am pleased to tell you, from the metric back to the Imperial system.
"I notice you are all at least two inches away from each other which is, as I understand it, what the regulations require.”
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/tory-minister-jacob-rees-mogg-25647589
The Tories had a bad week thanks to Boris, yet again. Hopefully the worst of that is finally over. So far we have had a police report, the Sue Gray report and the Privileges committee report all saying the same things in numbing detail. It's getting beyond dull. But maybe someone else should investigate so we can pretend to be outraged all over again.
It’s only the absurd FPTP stitch up that makes this anything other than terminal for the government.
Now there's only emptiness, nothing to say.
The elite suburban enclaves round major cities in the blue states are still doing fine.
However the central areas of blue state cities like san francisco and denver are in steep decline.
Many of the towns in the red state areas are struggling.
This reflects a hopelessly split country with the top 10 to 20 % doing well...the rest not so much.
"Cᴀʟɪʙʀᴇ Oʙsᴄᴜʀᴀ
@CalibreObscura
#Ukraine The Russian Army sent a T-54/55 VBIED filled with 6 tonnes of TNT at AFU lines near Marinka, Donetsk Oblast.
The attempt failed as the remotely-controlled bomb ran into a mine 100m from the front line, and was then hit by a Ukrainian RPG shot, causing a huge explosion."
https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1670510694838546436
But more seriously, New England is not all Boston. I've spent two days in Maine, two in New Hampshire, and I've also visited Vermont.
Of these, Maine is amongst the ten poorest states in the US. And we went to a quaint fishing village there for one night, and then onto Portland, which is by no means a rich city. Median house prices are pretty much in line with the US as a whole. But while incomes are nothing to write home about (although obviously 20x higher than for the poor sods in Russia outside Moscow and St Petersburg) unemployment is low. The cost of living is reasonable. And the bars and restaurants were heaving - albeit on a Thursday night.
There were, of course, homeless people. But there are homeless people in Bedford, England. And Camden, England. And Paris. And Milan. And Moscow. And Tokyo.
Original.
previous election, as in 1997, but don't yet
assign a single one of those votes elsewhere
you end up with:
Con 44 * 0.67 = 29/85 = 34%
LAB 32/85 = 37.5%
Further, if you count in around 1m new voters (young and immigrant), and 2m deceased since 2019 without the usual counterbalance of the rest of the electorate aging rightwards, you can add several hundred thousand to the start point lead, leaving Labour near 40%.
A Labour starting close to 40% before gaining a single switcher can get further into the 40s on far less effort than if you imagine them starting on 32%.
Switching models still treat the electorate as closed systems of voters, which can be a long way from correct.
The betting market rates this as a 42% probability, which is far higher than the probability apparently suggested by comments here.
I'll find out whether I can invest in the party leadership pair-up at the next GE being something other than Sunak-Starmer. Recall that Starmer promised to resign if he was fined over having a drink while standing 199 centimetres from someone else, or whatever it was. Having encouraged a permanent secretary to agree to come and work for him, who afterwards gets told she'd have been sacked on the spot if anyone had found out at the time, won't look good for the right honourable and learned gentleman at all. He is clearly a man of such honour that he would want to resign rather than to stay as LOTO with even the mere hint of a spot tarnishing what would otherwise be his squeaky clean reputation.
I have seen grinding poverty in America.
Many moons ago I dated a girl from Denver. She'd grown up in a trailer less than an hour from the City, in a place that had once had a silver mine. We visited her friends who still lived there. It was poverty like nothing I've seen out of Africa. No-one had jobs. Few people had made it through to graduate high school. Pregnancies at 14 or 15 were common. There was no crystal meth in those days, but there was home brewed alcohol and when the check from the government had arrived, there was cheap vodka from the boarded up general store.
There were no jobs. No money. No education. No hope.
When she took me to meet her friends, I found myself in this parallel universe without clean running water and where electricity was from a generator running off stolen diesel.
My friend got out of there. But she was the exception. Most people never did.
I'm sure than ramschakle collection of trailers is still there. I'm not sure how many of those people will still be alive.
But what I do know is that poverty for the bottom 5 to 10% in the US is terrifyingly awful.
Almost every one I know who's been there has described it as some sort of scenic idyll.
After all, same store sales measure bricks and mortar sales, and the world is going online.
Why not check out the DJ Resstaraunts Index, which has been an absolute stunner this year.
And its citizens might have other ideas.
I've also met a clearly disproportionate number of somehow friendly and pleasantly open-minded people from both these states of Maine and Vermont, over the years.
Perhaps Abbie Hoffman was right about the USA being just another Latin American dictatorship.
Live in America long enough and you simply cease to notice or question the grotesque social inequality.
Russia too, obvs. Though in time a new Lenin may emerge to exterminate the oligarchs and their lackeys.
Both far better than Russia obviously, where the rich fly to Germany for treatment, while the rural poor just die.
Popping up with cynicism coupled with no discernable worldview, not even Leon's pound shop Taki impersonation, is in fact not convincing anybody.
Perhaps because you can only get real food if you hunt out an expensive and usually crowded fake farm shop (fake because there’s usually no farm).
And who also rides bareback.
Cancer deaths in Russia far exceed other European countries. Endemic alcoholism and poverty are most of the reason.
Bit weird of you, though.
I think that Labour's offerings so far in this area and in taxation are lacking in credibility and this will put some people off, especially former Tory voters who are answering "don't know" at the moment. I agree with Mike on this one.
But I also think people are fed up of the Tories and Labour will win a small majority with the help of Scotland. SKS is not inspirational, this will be nothing like 1997, but it will be enough to look reasonably safe, if somewhat boring.
My guess is Labour will win the popular vote by 8-10%, nothing like the figure we are seeing in some of these polls, particularly from the new entrants.
Most voters I suspect would hang the lot of them without a second thought. Even twice if that's what it took!
And for another point, why do you exclude the possibility that people are able to remain sincerely outraged when they encounter reinforcement of their dislike? Are there things that you know perfectly well that still irritate you when they crop up? I suspect the answer is yes.
I think your characterisation of it as confected to be a projection of motivation that is unwarranted and, unusually, rather lazy as well - just because people know Boris is a liar does not mean they knew the specific lies in play here. For instance, I was unaware that one of his primary defences was that in effect the Covid guidance meant nothing, since he claims to have believed that so long as you said you could not abide by it, that made it fine.
And since his defenders are spending plenty of time getting outraged about the whole affair, which you do not touch upon so I assume you do not find their reaction confected, why would it be unreasonable for people to likewise respond to that outrage and defence?
As correcthorsebat implies, your contention does not pass the 'if the other side did it' test. Are we not to hear how Keir is boring? Did we ever truly tire of hearing how Corbyn was unsuitable over and over? I think not.
It's a moan that people are bringing up something dressed up as something else. But it was a major event, as seen by Boris moaning about it so much, your moan makes no sense - how dare people go on again about a new event happening in the news!
I hope a double murderer tries the defence at trial though. You've already proven I killed that one man, why bang on about the other one?
Relying on external processes and opposition MPs to chuck him out into the snow isn't enough.
And if everyone knew Boris was a liar, why did the Conservatives put him before the country as a potential PM?
From the contract there's no turning back
The turning point of a career
In Korea being insincere
The holiday was fun packed
The contract still intact
The grabbing hands grab all they can
All for themselves after all
The grabbing hands grab all they can
All for themselves after all
It's a competitive world
Everything counts in large amounts
The graph on the wall
Tells the story of it all
Picture it now, see just how
The lies and deceit gained a little more power
Confidence taken in
By a sun tan and a grin
The grabbing hands grab all they can
All for themselves after all
The grabbing hands grab all they can
All for themselves after all
It's a competitive world
Everything counts in large amounts
Everything counts in large amounts
The grabbing hands grab all they can
Everything counts in large amounts
The grabbing hands grab all they can
Everything counts in large amounts
Though in their proposed conquest, and subjecation of native populations it is Russia and China that are the colonialists.
https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4054578-barr-bolton-kelly-line-up-to-condemn-trump/
Christie, Barr compare Trump to a child
https://thehill.com/homenews/4056128-christie-barr-compare-trump-to-a-child/
Left wing advisor had idea.
Sacked advisor.
Peter Mandelson on the phone: 'don't do this'
Rinse and repeat
- No pronoun or uniform change without parental consent
- No hiding changes from parents
- Head can say no to protect other kids
- Competitive sport protected - gender questioning pupils banned
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1670545643390091267
I believe you were a fan of the Cixin Liu series starting with the "Three Body Problem". Netflix have dramatised it and the trailer is now out. You can find it here:
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lj99Uz1d50&t=1s
Trailer breakdown: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOD9PdkXiw8
Breakdown of the book series and associated stuff: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLRXGGVBzHLUfIzEhovpQJ2ENiNvJoOD2A
He is a scumbag.
“ @ Leon claims he is going to a variety of areas but as far as I can tell he is doing the US equivalent of travelling from Bradford to Hull”
You seem to have forgotten I spent four days on the east coast including 3 in the nation’s capital, which is literally the richest place in the USA
Moreover, I have in the last two years been to Florida California Arizona Utah Colorado Mississippi Louisiana Alabama Tennessee and New York. I suspect I have seen more of America than you guys who live there. Which makes sense. I come here to travel and experience America, you live and work here with families and when you want an American holiday you go to an obviously nice affluent bit - like upscale New England
I stand by my judgment. Parts of the east coast are doing just fine. Flourishing and opulent. As I’ve said before Alexandria VA was the nicest of all the towns I visited. It could have been a quietly ritzy town in Austria or Australia. DC was boring (museums apart) but still clearly wealthy
But go inland to the more neglected bits and it is very different. And even some of the richer cities - Denver is a prime example - have desolate downtowns. Destroyed by covid and now predated by drugs and druggies