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Sunak’s position has got stronger during the week – politicalbetting.com
Sunak’s position has got stronger during the week – politicalbetting.com
In many ways the political winner of the past week has been the Prime Minister. This is for the simple reason that the main possible person who could undermine his position Boris Johnson is now effectively out of it.
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Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.
Next week the Commons will vote on the privileges committee report. The House will overwhelmingly endorse the committee’s powerfully supported conclusions. But some Tory MPs, though they would not disagree, will abstain. Why?
Since I would not like to use this word of named individuals, I will use it now, before anyone (including, perhaps, they themselves) can know who these MPs are. They are cowards, and examples of what carried this shoddy joker into Downing Street in the first place: an excess of discretion and a want of valour.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wrong-un-boris-johnson-is-a-product-of-modern-britain-7cwm7b2bk
And Boris has considerable traction with the voting Right via his new Daily Mail column. In that sense, he is far from 'out of it.'
We sometimes forget that Westminster is not where General Election voting happens. Nor is it where people make up their minds.
The obvious one being Braverman.
That would actually make things worse, not better, for both Sunak (heart of stone etc) and the country.
Neither are true statement
Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%. Labour will probably hold steady at about 43% and the potential for a majority is driven by how effectively the tactical voting plays out.
But if Johnson snipes away about betrayal for the next 12 months, his nutty supporters might stick with RefUK out of a desire to kick Sunak. That’s when the Tories really do get smashed.
But this point of view stems not from some tactical positioning, but rather more that we think he’s generally governing in the interests of the country, as opposed to for himself and his cronies. That should be a minimum standard for any government, but after the last few years it’s not something that can be taken for granted anymore.
Tbh I think he’ll be back though. He is only 58.
Two new polls out today for the Spanish GE. The first shows a small change in the lead for PP, with falls for both Vox and Sumar, the extreme left and right parties. The second is the regular CIS survey which as usual is very different from all the other polls which gives PSOE a tiny lead and Vox much lower. Even this one shows PP much higher than their previous polls. The general view is that since the election was called, the centre right is on course to win but with no absolute majority.
In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.
In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%
For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.
The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.
And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.
There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.
So my monthly utilities aside from the £16 phone/internet is now down to £45.
Scoff at my flask filling all ye like.
So the week is indeed getting better for the increasingly impressive Sunak.
(Sky, but I can't embed on this phone).
You know the alt-history/time travel trope where someone goes back in time and kills Hitler and it ends up worse? Because the Nazi Party still happens but is led by someone who doesn't make Hitler's mistakes.
A populist right led by Braverman would be bad, sure, as we may find out in 2025. But the public view of her has settled on "nasty and a bit dim". That's not as dangerous, because we know where we all stand.
Sunak's geeky technocrat image has provided a distracting sheen for someone who, at the very least, is happy for Braverman to do her thing at the Home Office, and probably believes this stuff as well.
Same for Johnson; his public act was a brilliant distraction for terrible behaviour.
As Claud Cockburn wrote, much better that sewers smell like sewers.
I think it’s highly likely that Labour win next year. It’s been a long period in either coalition or majority government for the Tories. Global events have been awful since 2020 and would have challenged any government.
What has happened is that the Tories have installed a relatively normal, decent person in No 10. Not a bullshitting liar like Johnson. Not a fantasist with no concept of the real world like Truss. It gives a chance of clawing back votes. And Starmer has not yet been tested. The Labour manifesto has not been sliced and diced by every journalist under the sun. Most people ar3 not that into politics. The ones on QT are. People on PB are. But most are more bothered by other stuff, like Harry and Meghan, or the Ashes, or how hot it is.
Time will tell. Most likely is Starmervas next PM. Probably with a majority, but that’s not a certainty.
What is a certainty is you will keep posting the same post over and over and over again. And that’s fine. Just a bit dull.
If he's opposing complete loons and third-rate lowlifes like Mogg, Fabricant, Dorries, Truss and Clark, look elsewhere for the reasons.
With the nodding bulldog this time for 250.
Ohh yes..
The scoffing at the flask is have you ever done the actual maths/science of it, rather than just, say, boiling the right amount each time?
I also observe and post facts.
Latest opinion poll? 22% Labour lead. Sorry if that seems "dull" to you. I expect for many right-wingers this must seem awfully dull.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
What he is, in almost the words of the Now show, is Not Insane and Not Boris Johnson. And that makes him acceptable, under the circumstances.
You are a better commentator than that.
Labour's average lead is circa 10 points less than you suggest.
Thatcher played the same game, for instance, as did Macmillan. And, of course, Tony Blair.
We might consider Bentinck and Lansbury for the other side.
What is a real PITA is the hidden snag in trying to upgrade ISA rates either within the same bank or betwen banks - the frequent insistence on opening a new ISA ie using the 2023-24 allowance before they will let you move an older isa. THieving bastards as CHB says.
But Triodos let me change my ISA from a lower rate variable to a higher rate fix just like that - no complaints there.
Edit - to avoid ambiguity (I know how to use Google!) I meant what are they like to work with?
However anyone who undermines Corbyn gets an uptick from me, and compared to the sack of fighting rats that is the current UK Conservative Party (Sunak and Hunt excepted) Starmer in relative terms doesn't seem so bad.
Overall, that releases enough creativity to be
worth it. But some of the local side effects (the haggling, the rewards for being good at blagging) are bad enough to make a totally free market undesirable.
Only question is where to draw the line?
EDIT: Sorry, Googled it. Brain fart. Why so late?
Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.
Gloom descended on Rishi Sunak’s Downing Street this week
Tories fear the Boris Johnson saga, rising interest rates and an increasingly likely 2024 recession have further closed their already very narrow path to victory
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1669978152062312448
He should know better he's married to newsreader Geeta Guru-Murthy.
Taking all 5 polls with fieldwork ending within the last 7 days, the average lead is 16.0%. Include the latest YouGov and Opinium in the mix, so that you've got the latest poll from all 7 of the companies which poll at least fortnightly, and it's 15.7%. Or just take the 3 polls whose fieldwork started within the last 7 days, the average lead is 17.3%. Take your pick.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
I have just returned from a wonderful week in the Isle of Man and have interacted and listened to multiple conversations on the ships, in the hotel, in restaurants and coffee bars most everyone being English holidaymakers and not one person spoke about politics in any shape or form
I do not deny the conservatives are in serious trouble and Starmer is heading to no 10, but your suggestion that everyone is talking politics is not an experience I can concur with, but you do have a tendency to go a 'wee' but over the top
Sack of snakes and rats.
That would be mildly better than a racist, but neither is ideal.
You've missed all the excitement on your holibobs. We have a new leader, Rhun ap Iorweth!
Meanwhile, quick anecdote from my Saturday trot round the local shops.
The pile of unsold Daily Mails (now with added Boris on the front page) was awfully big.
It was hard to see Plaid taking that seat even with him as candidate, but it's even harder now.
His wife hadn't been able to get a visa to join him so after several frustrating years had tried the illegal route and had paid $4000 for a crossing.
I can't remember hearing such a heartbreaking story from such a sympathetic character. All at once there was a story behind the ginning faces of Sunak and Braverman boasting about 'stopping the boats' and it made you feel disgusted
Vast lifetimes of time are wasted by customers phoning up insurance companies for more reasonable renewal rates, because the extra money from people who don't phone is greater than the cost of paying for all the extra call centre staff required.
I'd hope that there was a regulatory way to fix this, without causing more damage through unintended consequences, and if someone [non-racist] in Starmer's team can think of a way to do so then it would be a good example of how Labour could reform Britain to reduce living costs and make people's lives better, without having to spend £billions.
Many people who dislike the government of the day will decide they dislike the alternative more, come the GE.
I thought recession was off the cards, what has brought it back again?
I’ll never forget the time somebody complained to OGH about my racism when I said I didn’t want to live next door to Muslim neighbours.
He's so dull and boring I find it hard to have any strong reaction to him at all.
I agree with OGH. Rishi has played his foes (Johnson and Starmer) like a ten bob violin this week. From a standing start he's getting really good at this politics malarkey.
The tabloid right hate him because of whe he did to tabloids.
Johnson hates him because he kept asking the right questions.
From one perspective, Starmer is annoying all the right people.
But yes, the general public view seems to be "oh well, he'll have to do".
As in all these cases, everyone should be supporting measures to prevent these boats from sailing but again it is politicised and as a consequence many more avoidable deaths are inevitable not just in the channel but the Mediterranean as the EU members close their borders and turn a blind eye