Sunak’s position has got stronger during the week – politicalbetting.com

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Sunak’s position has got stronger during the week – politicalbetting.com

In many ways the political winner of the past week has been the Prime Minister. This is for the simple reason that the main possible person who could undermine his position Boris Johnson is now effectively out of it.

Read the full story here

Smart51

Johnson and Dorries are weaker, I'm not sure Sunak is stronger though.

Foxy

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Scott_xP

Sunak can throw it all away again on Monday by not whipping his MPs to vote on BoZo's report.

Next week the Commons will vote on the privileges committee report. The House will overwhelmingly endorse the committee’s powerfully supported conclusions. But some Tory MPs, though they would not disagree, will abstain. Why?

Since I would not like to use this word of named individuals, I will use it now, before anyone (including, perhaps, they themselves) can know who these MPs are. They are cowards, and examples of what carried this shoddy joker into Downing Street in the first place: an excess of discretion and a want of valour.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/wrong-un-boris-johnson-is-a-product-of-modern-britain-7cwm7b2bk

StillWaters

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Why do they represent the “real” Tory party rather than just being a minor key that temporarily gain dominance?

Heathener

I'm not sure Mike has got this right. All of them are weaker from this.

And Boris has considerable traction with the voting Right via his new Daily Mail column. In that sense, he is far from 'out of it.'

We sometimes forget that Westminster is not where General Election voting happens. Nor is it where people make up their minds.

ydoethur

There seems to me a non-trivial risk that actually Johnson's low life completely lunatic supporters transfer their support to a more dangerous and even less suitable candidate.

The obvious one being Braverman.

That would actually make things worse, not better, for both Sunak (heart of stone etc) and the country.

Foxy

StillWaters said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Why do they represent the “real” Tory party rather than just being a minor key that temporarily gain dominance?

Simples. Both Johnson and Truss were elected by a majority of members (including my mother 🙄) while Sunak was not. Both have a better claim to representing the party than Sunak.

Luckyguy1983

Our host has a bit of a soft spot for Rishi, as many of the Tory Party's opponents (sorry if that's a mischaracterisation) do. I'm not really surprised - he effectively eliminates the chance of a shock Tory victory, whilst preparing the ground for Starmer, and opposing the pro-Brexit faction within the Party. If I wanted the Tory Party to lose, I'd be a fan of him too.

StillWaters

Foxy said:

StillWaters said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Why do they represent the “real” Tory party rather than just being a minor key that temporarily gain dominance?

Simples. Both Johnson and Truss were elected by a majority of members (including my mother 🙄) while Sunak was not. Both have a better claim to representing the party than Sunak.

You’d also argue that Corbyn represents the “true” Labour Party then.

Neither are true statement

Ghedebrav

On topic, I daresay the editors of the next Oxford Dictionary of Idioms are delighted to have such a perfect illustration of ‘outside the tent pissing in’.

DavidL

His best moment was the "Boris asked me to do something that I was not prepared to do" one. He came across as his own man, no longer beholden to others in the party. But civil war is not a good look, its unfashionable. A further test will be how many of his MPs he can bring through the lobbies to condemn Boris. He needs almost all of them to put this behind him.

Monksfield

I don’t expect significant change in the polling over the next year, irrespective of the Westminster circus. But Johnson sniping from outside the tent isn’t going to help Sunak get the RefUK vote back into his column.

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%. Labour will probably hold steady at about 43% and the potential for a majority is driven by how effectively the tactical voting plays out.

But if Johnson snipes away about betrayal for the next 12 months, his nutty supporters might stick with RefUK out of a desire to kick Sunak. That’s when the Tories really do get smashed.

ThomasNashe

Luckyguy1983 said:

Our host has a bit of a soft spot for Rishi, as many of the Tory Party's opponents (sorry if that's a mischaracterisation) do. I'm not really surprised - he effectively eliminates the chance of a shock Tory victory, whilst preparing the ground for Starmer, and opposing the pro-Brexit faction within the Party. If I wanted the Tory Party to lose, I'd be a fan of him too.

You’re right to say there’s a sizeable ‘like Rishi, won’t vote Tory’ faction. I’m one and we’re probably over-represented on PB.

But this point of view stems not from some tactical positioning, but rather more that we think he’s generally governing in the interests of the country, as opposed to for himself and his cronies. That should be a minimum standard for any government, but after the last few years it’s not something that can be taken for granted anymore.

Ghedebrav

DavidL said:

His best moment was the "Boris asked me to do something that I was not prepared to do" one. He came across as his own man, no longer beholden to others in the party. But civil war is not a good look, its unfashionable. A further test will be how many of his MPs he can bring through the lobbies to condemn Boris. He needs almost all of them to put this behind him.

Meat Loaf Rishi; he would do anything for Boz - but he won’t do that.

Ghedebrav

ThomasNashe said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Our host has a bit of a soft spot for Rishi, as many of the Tory Party's opponents (sorry if that's a mischaracterisation) do. I'm not really surprised - he effectively eliminates the chance of a shock Tory victory, whilst preparing the ground for Starmer, and opposing the pro-Brexit faction within the Party. If I wanted the Tory Party to lose, I'd be a fan of him too.

You’re right to say there’s a sizeable ‘like Rishi, won’t vote Tory’ faction. I’m one and we’re probably over-represented on PB.

But this point of view stems not from some tactical positioning, but rather more that we think he’s generally governing in the interests of the country, as opposed to for himself and his cronies. That should be a minimum standard for any government, but after the last few years it’s not something that can be taken for granted anymore.

Completely agree.

Gallowgate

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Ghedebrav

ydoethur said:

There seems to me a non-trivial risk that actually Johnson's low life completely lunatic supporters transfer their support to a more dangerous and even less suitable candidate.

The obvious one being Braverman.

That would actually make things worse, not better, for both Sunak (heart of stone etc) and the country.

True, and I think she has a nice safe seat too.

Tbh I think he’ll be back though. He is only 58.

felix

FPT:
Two new polls out today for the Spanish GE. The first shows a small change in the lead for PP, with falls for both Vox and Sumar, the extreme left and right parties. The second is the regular CIS survey which as usual is very different from all the other polls which gives PSOE a tiny lead and Vox much lower. Even this one shows PP much higher than their previous polls. The general view is that since the election was called, the centre right is on course to win but with no absolute majority.

Ghedebrav

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Just did a fairly terrifying audit of our household outgoings. I need to start doing what you’ve done.

malcolmg

DavidL said:

His best moment was the "Boris asked me to do something that I was not prepared to do" one. He came across as his own man, no longer beholden to others in the party. But civil war is not a good look, its unfashionable. A further test will be how many of his MPs he can bring through the lobbies to condemn Boris. He needs almost all of them to put this behind him.

More likely he will be washing his hair and unable to turn up to vote himself.

Roger

I don't think so. It strikes me as a soap opera which Sunak is very much a part of and which the public are heartily sick of.

Heathener

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

turbotubbs

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Totally agree. If there was a better deal on offer, why didn’t they offer it at the start?

DecrepiterJohnL

This backdated knighthood for Martin Amis fits oddly with assurances that Jimmy Savile's ended when he died. It is hard to escape the conclusion that the king is too clever by half.

Heathener

Ghedebrav said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Just did a fairly terrifying audit of our household outgoings. I need to start doing what you’ve done.

I love money saving. It's incredibly satisfying. I've just dismissed my mobile phone provider who wanted to double my monthly bill and gone with Smarty who are winning rave reviews, and run off the Three Network. £16 a month unlimited data with EU roaming. I binned broadband when I moved. With 4G and 5G there's no need for broadband imho.

So my monthly utilities aside from the £16 phone/internet is now down to £45.

Scoff at my flask filling all ye like.

Mexicanpete

ydoethur said:

There seems to me a non-trivial risk that actually Johnson's low life completely lunatic supporters transfer their support to a more dangerous and even less suitable candidate.

The obvious one being Braverman.

That would actually make things worse, not better, for both Sunak (heart of stone etc) and the country.

Talking of useless and unsuitable candidates Laura Alvez, Jeremy Corbyn's current squeeze is involved with a group planning to unseat Keith Donkey at the next election.

So the week is indeed getting better for the increasingly impressive Sunak.

(Sky, but I can't embed on this phone).

bondegezou

turbotubbs said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Totally agree. If there was a better deal on offer, why didn’t they offer it at the start?

Because they’d rather have £70?

boulay

DecrepiterJohnL said:

This backdated knighthood for Martin Amis fits oddly with assurances that Jimmy Savile's ended when he died. It is hard to escape the conclusion that the king is too clever by half.

I don’t think it was backdated - they said this morning that Amis received the notice and accepted a day before he died.

Stuartinromford

ydoethur said:

There seems to me a non-trivial risk that actually Johnson's low life completely lunatic supporters transfer their support to a more dangerous and even less suitable candidate.

The obvious one being Braverman.

That would actually make things worse, not better, for both Sunak (heart of stone etc) and the country.

Not sure about that one.

You know the alt-history/time travel trope where someone goes back in time and kills Hitler and it ends up worse? Because the Nazi Party still happens but is led by someone who doesn't make Hitler's mistakes.

A populist right led by Braverman would be bad, sure, as we may find out in 2025. But the public view of her has settled on "nasty and a bit dim". That's not as dangerous, because we know where we all stand.

Sunak's geeky technocrat image has provided a distracting sheen for someone who, at the very least, is happy for Braverman to do her thing at the Home Office, and probably believes this stuff as well.

Same for Johnson; his public act was a brilliant distraction for terrible behaviour.

As Claud Cockburn wrote, much better that sewers smell like sewers.

turbotubbs

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Or rather, you have made up your mind and keep projecting it onto everyone you meet, including innocent folk on the bus.

I think it’s highly likely that Labour win next year. It’s been a long period in either coalition or majority government for the Tories. Global events have been awful since 2020 and would have challenged any government.

What has happened is that the Tories have installed a relatively normal, decent person in No 10. Not a bullshitting liar like Johnson. Not a fantasist with no concept of the real world like Truss. It gives a chance of clawing back votes. And Starmer has not yet been tested. The Labour manifesto has not been sliced and diced by every journalist under the sun. Most people ar3 not that into politics. The ones on QT are. People on PB are. But most are more bothered by other stuff, like Harry and Meghan, or the Ashes, or how hot it is.

Time will tell. Most likely is Starmervas next PM. Probably with a majority, but that’s not a certainty.

What is a certainty is you will keep posting the same post over and over and over again. And that’s fine. Just a bit dull.

turbotubbs

bondegezou said:

turbotubbs said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Totally agree. If there was a better deal on offer, why didn’t they offer it at the start?

Because they’d rather have £70?

Well yes, but that indicates the model is broken. Customers should not need to threaten to leave or actually leave to get the best deal.

ydoethur

Luckyguy1983 said:

Our host has a bit of a soft spot for Rishi, as many of the Tory Party's opponents (sorry if that's a mischaracterisation) do. I'm not really surprised - he effectively eliminates the chance of a shock Tory victory, whilst preparing the ground for Starmer, and opposing the pro-Brexit faction within the Party. If I wanted the Tory Party to lose, I'd be a fan of him too.

It is slightly disturbing that Sunak, who was actually working for Brexit long before the drunken liar Johnson was and has been doing his best to stabilise relations with the EU so Labour will be left with no excuse to take us back in, is now considered to be 'opposing the pro-Brexit faction.'

If he's opposing complete loons and third-rate lowlifes like Mogg, Fabricant, Dorries, Truss and Clark, look elsewhere for the reasons.

Pulpstar

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Car insurance is something I've always just changed year after year.

With the nodding bulldog this time for 250.

Ohh yes..

turbotubbs

Heathener said:

Ghedebrav said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Just did a fairly terrifying audit of our household outgoings. I need to start doing what you’ve done.

I love money saving. It's incredibly satisfying. I've just dismissed my mobile phone provider who wanted to double my monthly bill and gone with Smarty who are winning rave reviews, and run off the Three Network. £16 a month unlimited data with EU roaming. I binned broadband when I moved. With 4G and 5G there's no need for broadband imho.

So my monthly utilities aside from the £16 phone/internet is now down to £45.

Scoff at my flask filling all ye like.

Nothing wrong with money saving. Absolutely nothing, and I commend you for doing.
The scoffing at the flask is have you ever done the actual maths/science of it, rather than just, say, boiling the right amount each time?

Heathener

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Or rather, you have made up your mind and keep projecting it onto everyone you meet, including innocent folk on the bus.

No I listen. You should try it. Put metaphorical tape across your mouth and just listen. Really tune in and listen to ordinary people's conversations: on buses, trains, in shops, doctors' surgeries. Listen. Listen. Listen.

I also observe and post facts.

Latest opinion poll? 22% Labour lead. Sorry if that seems "dull" to you. I expect for many right-wingers this must seem awfully dull.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Fishing

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Less farcical and dishonest than Corbyn's former shadow cabinet member who campaigned for Jezza to be PM and then ran on a Corbynite manifesto to get elected pretending that he was a secret Blairite all the time. Whereas, of course, he's just a shabby, lying opportunist.

ydoethur

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Or rather, you have made up your mind and keep projecting it onto everyone you meet, including innocent folk on the bus.

I think it’s highly likely that Labour win next year. It’s been a long period in either coalition or majority government for the Tories. Global events have been awful since 2020 and would have challenged any government.

What has happened is that the Tories have installed a relatively normal, decent person in No 10. Not a bullshitting liar like Johnson. Not a fantasist with no concept of the real world like Truss. It gives a chance of clawing back votes. And Starmer has not yet been tested. The Labour manifesto has not been sliced and diced by every journalist under the sun. Most people ar3 not that into politics. The ones on QT are. People on PB are. But most are more bothered by other stuff, like Harry and Meghan, or the Ashes, or how hot it is.

Time will tell. Most likely is Starmervas next PM. Probably with a majority, but that’s not a certainty.

What is a certainty is you will keep posting the same post over and over and over again. And that’s fine. Just a bit dull.

I'm not sure about 'normal' (few PMs are entirely normal) or 'decent' (Braverman, Zahawi, Williamson, Raab, Johnson for far too long).

What he is, in almost the words of the Now show, is Not Insane and Not Boris Johnson. And that makes him acceptable, under the circumstances.

Mexicanpete

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Or rather, you have made up your mind and keep projecting it onto everyone you meet, including innocent folk on the bus.

I

No I listen. You should try it. Put metaphorical tape across your gob and just listen. Really tune in and listen to ordinary people's conversations: on buses, trains, in shops, doctors' surgeries. Listen. Listen. Listen.

I also observe and post facts.

Latest opinion poll? 22% Labour lead. Sorry if that seems "dull" to you. I expect for many right-wingers this must seem awfully dull. A nailed on tory defeat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

You have taken a leaf out of the HYUFD songbook here and referenced Labour's best poll.

You are a better commentator than that.

Labour's average lead is circa 10 points less than you suggest.

ydoethur

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Less farcical and dishonest than Corbyn's former shadow cabinet member who campaigned for Jezza to be PM and then ran on a Corbynite manifesto to get elected pretending that he was a secret Blairite all the time. Whereas, of course, he's just a shabby, lying opportunist.

Difficult to see how that last sentence - however true - separates him from any other successful politician.

Thatcher played the same game, for instance, as did Macmillan. And, of course, Tony Blair.

We might consider Bentinck and Lansbury for the other side.

Carnyx

Ghedebrav said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Just did a fairly terrifying audit of our household outgoings. I need to start doing what you’ve done.

Quite. Also worth looking at any savings accounts. I'm doing that with ours at the moment. Only some variable rate ones have kept up with recent changes, and fixed term ones are apt to have lagged for the obvious reason, so pulling out early makes sense as the penalty is derisory compared with the benefit.

What is a real PITA is the hidden snag in trying to upgrade ISA rates either within the same bank or betwen banks - the frequent insistence on opening a new ISA ie using the 2023-24 allowance before they will let you move an older isa. THieving bastards as CHB says.

But Triodos let me change my ISA from a lower rate variable to a higher rate fix just like that - no complaints there.

ydoethur

Carnyx said:

Ghedebrav said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Just did a fairly terrifying audit of our household outgoings. I need to start doing what you’ve done.

Quite. Also worth looking at any savings accounts. I'm doing that with ours at the moment. Only some variable rate ones have kept up with recent changes, and fixed term ones are apt to have lagged for the obvious reason, so pulling out early makes sense as the penalty is derisory compared with the benefit.

What is a real PITA is the hidden snag in trying to upgrade ISA rates either within the same bank or betwen banks - the frequent insistence on opening a new ISA ie using the 2023-24 allowance before they will let you move an older isa. THieving bastards as CHB says.

But Triodos let me change my ISA from a lower rate variable to a higher rate fix just like that - no complaints there.

Not familiar with them. How do you find them?

Edit - to avoid ambiguity (I know how to use Google!) I meant what are they like to work with?

Mexicanpete

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Less farcical and dishonest than Corbyn's former shadow cabinet member who campaigned for Jezza to be PM and then ran on a Corbynite manifesto to get elected pretending that he was a secret Blairite all the time. Whereas, of course, he's just a shabby, lying opportunist.

Along with pretty much everyone on here, I detest Starmer.

However anyone who undermines Corbyn gets an uptick from me, and compared to the sack of fighting rats that is the current UK Conservative Party (Sunak and Hunt excepted) Starmer in relative terms doesn't seem so bad.

Stuartinromford

turbotubbs said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Totally agree. If there was a better deal on offer, why didn’t they offer it at the start?

Dirty secret of free market capitalism. There's no such thing as a fair price, just a price that two parties agree. The buyer will always try to screw that down and the seller will try to blag that up. (See the #*?!£ buyers of my parents' house who have just gazundered us.) That price may be fair, but in some cases it's absurdly unfair, depending on the balance of power.

Overall, that releases enough creativity to be
worth it. But some of the local side effects (the haggling, the rewards for being good at blagging) are bad enough to make a totally free market undesirable.

Only question is where to draw the line?

DougSeal

Luckyguy1983 said:

Our host has a bit of a soft spot for Rishi, as many of the Tory Party's opponents (sorry if that's a mischaracterisation) do. I'm not really surprised - he effectively eliminates the chance of a shock Tory victory, whilst preparing the ground for Starmer, and opposing the pro-Brexit faction within the Party. If I wanted the Tory Party to lose, I'd be a fan of him too.

It’s incredibly weird how you oppose Sunak partly for “opposing the pro-Brexit faction within the Party” given Sunak was calling for Brexit far before Johnson was. And let’s not mention which side your fave Truss campaigned for in 2016.

bondegezou

Mexicanpete said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Less farcical and dishonest than Corbyn's former shadow cabinet member who campaigned for Jezza to be PM and then ran on a Corbynite manifesto to get elected pretending that he was a secret Blairite all the time. Whereas, of course, he's just a shabby, lying opportunist.

Along with pretty much everyone on here, I detest Starmer.

However anyone who undermines Corbyn gets an uptick from me, and compared to the sack of fighting rats that is the current UK Conservative Party (Sunak and Hunt excepted) Starmer in relative terms doesn't seem so bad.

I do not detest Starmer.

DougSeal

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Less farcical and dishonest than Corbyn's former shadow cabinet member who campaigned for Jezza to be PM and then ran on a Corbynite manifesto to get elected pretending that he was a secret Blairite all the time. Whereas, of course, he's just a shabby, lying opportunist.

Every political leader does the same thing. Thatcher supported Heath, Sunak was considered something of a protege of Johnson until roughly this time last year.

Gallowgate

What time does the cricket start?

EDIT: Sorry, Googled it. Brain fart. Why so late?

DougSeal

Mexicanpete said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Less farcical and dishonest than Corbyn's former shadow cabinet member who campaigned for Jezza to be PM and then ran on a Corbynite manifesto to get elected pretending that he was a secret Blairite all the time. Whereas, of course, he's just a shabby, lying opportunist.

Along with pretty much everyone on here, I detest Starmer.

However anyone who undermines Corbyn gets an uptick from me, and compared to the sack of fighting rats that is the current UK Conservative Party (Sunak and Hunt excepted) Starmer in relative terms doesn't seem so bad.

Detest? Really? I thought there were a multitude of SKS fans on here? BJO told me.

state_go_away

Gallowgate said:

What time does the cricket start?

isn't it quicker to google it?

turbotubbs

Gallowgate said:

What time does the cricket start?

11.

Carnyx

ydoethur said:

Carnyx said:

Ghedebrav said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Just did a fairly terrifying audit of our household outgoings. I need to start doing what you’ve done.

Quite. Also worth looking at any savings accounts. I'm doing that with ours at the moment. Only some variable rate ones have kept up with recent changes, and fixed term ones are apt to have lagged for the obvious reason, so pulling out early makes sense as the penalty is derisory compared with the benefit.

What is a real PITA is the hidden snag in trying to upgrade ISA rates either within the same bank or betwen banks - the frequent insistence on opening a new ISA ie using the 2023-24 allowance before they will let you move an older isa. THieving bastards as CHB says.

But Triodos let me change my ISA from a lower rate variable to a higher rate fix just like that - no complaints there.

Not familiar with them. How do you find them?

Triodos? Not bad. Far too woke for one or two of us, and ethical investments do tend to mean a lower rate of return, but the rates were OK generally and there were practical reasons why we went there originally (very convenient branch office in Edinburgh at the time, but this is less of an issue now). ATM the variable rate is 2.9%. Not the highest but they upped it in stages reasonably promptly. And being able to up to 3.9% fixed rate without any monkey business is particularly helpful just now. Other banks are available now with higher rates though of course at the moment it's a moving pattern.

state_go_away

turbotubbs said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Totally agree. If there was a better deal on offer, why didn’t they offer it at the start?

its a weird thing about trying to make as much money as you can - sort of in built into us . Especially prevalent on betting forums

DavidL

ydoethur said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Our host has a bit of a soft spot for Rishi, as many of the Tory Party's opponents (sorry if that's a mischaracterisation) do. I'm not really surprised - he effectively eliminates the chance of a shock Tory victory, whilst preparing the ground for Starmer, and opposing the pro-Brexit faction within the Party. If I wanted the Tory Party to lose, I'd be a fan of him too.

It is slightly disturbing that Sunak, who was actually working for Brexit long before the drunken liar Johnson was and has been doing his best to stabilise relations with the EU so Labour will be left with no excuse to take us back in, is now considered to be 'opposing the pro-Brexit faction.'

If he's opposing complete loons and third-rate lowlifes like Mogg, Fabricant, Dorries, Truss and Clark, look elsewhere for the reasons.

His approach on this really couldn't fit me better. He wanted Brexit because he thought the UK could do better and the EU was a deeply flawed and undemocratic institution. But that did not make them enemies, indeed they are friends. I welcome his efforts to normalise relations and also the positive way this has now been picked up by the EU. The departure of Boris from office was almost certainly a necessary prerequisite for this and if the likes of Mogg regrets that then too bad.

turbotubbs

Gallowgate said:

What time does the cricket start?

11.

state_go_away said:

turbotubbs said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Totally agree. If there was a better deal on offer, why didn’t they offer it at the start?

its a weird thing about trying to make as much money as you can - sort of in built into us . Especially prevalent on betting forums

Are they not making money at the price they have agreed with Gallowgate? I hate the current system. Where is the loyalty bonus for customers?

MaxPB

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

turbotubbs

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

MaxPB

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

ydoethur

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Well, he's an idiot then.

Scott_xP

NEW: @BloombergUK Saturday read

Gloom descended on Rishi Sunak’s Downing Street this week

Tories fear the Boris Johnson saga, rising interest rates and an increasingly likely 2024 recession have further closed their already very narrow path to victory

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1669978152062312448

turbotubbs

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Wow! That’s some post.

squareroot2

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Isn't it" mad as a box of frogs"?

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Isn't it" mad as a box of frogs"?

Bit racist these days, that implies they're mad like Frenchmen.

Mexicanpete

...

ydoethur said:

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Well, he's an idiot then.

That is without question vile Labour racism.

He should know better he's married to newsreader Geeta Guru-Murthy.

Wulfrun_Phil

Mexicanpete said:

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Or rather, you have made up your mind and keep projecting it onto everyone you meet, including innocent folk on the bus.

I

No I listen. You should try it. Put metaphorical tape across your gob and just listen. Really tune in and listen to ordinary people's conversations: on buses, trains, in shops, doctors' surgeries. Listen. Listen. Listen.

I also observe and post facts.

Latest opinion poll? 22% Labour lead. Sorry if that seems "dull" to you. I expect for many right-wingers this must seem awfully dull. A nailed on tory defeat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

You have taken a leaf out of the HYUFD songbook here and referenced Labour's best poll.

You are a better commentator than that.

Labour's average lead is circa 10 points less than you suggest.

You are literally making it up. Labour's average polling lead is not circa 12%, as you suggest.

Taking all 5 polls with fieldwork ending within the last 7 days, the average lead is 16.0%. Include the latest YouGov and Opinium in the mix, so that you've got the latest poll from all 7 of the companies which poll at least fortnightly, and it's 15.7%. Or just take the 3 polls whose fieldwork started within the last 7 days, the average lead is 17.3%. Take your pick.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Mexicanpete

squareroot2 said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Isn't it" mad as a box of frogs"?

Bag of monkeys or rats also works. Snakes works for this Government.

DecrepiterJohnL

boulay said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

This backdated knighthood for Martin Amis fits oddly with assurances that Jimmy Savile's ended when he died. It is hard to escape the conclusion that the king is too clever by half.

I don’t think it was backdated - they said this morning that Amis received the notice and accepted a day before he died.

Yes, I accept the mechanics of the award, it is the optics I question. Anyway, 'tis done now.

Big_G_NorthWales

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Or rather, you have made up your mind and keep projecting it onto everyone you meet, including innocent folk on the bus.

No I listen. You should try it. Put metaphorical tape across your mouth and just listen. Really tune in and listen to ordinary people's conversations: on buses, trains, in shops, doctors' surgeries. Listen. Listen. Listen.

I also observe and post facts.

Latest opinion poll? 22% Labour lead. Sorry if that seems "dull" to you. I expect for many right-wingers this must seem awfully dull.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Good morning

I have just returned from a wonderful week in the Isle of Man and have interacted and listened to multiple conversations on the ships, in the hotel, in restaurants and coffee bars most everyone being English holidaymakers and not one person spoke about politics in any shape or form

I do not deny the conservatives are in serious trouble and Starmer is heading to no 10, but your suggestion that everyone is talking politics is not an experience I can concur with, but you do have a tendency to go a 'wee' but over the top

TheScreamingEagles

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Wow! That’s some post.

I’m hoping it is a piss take of the Tebbit test.

Nigelb

DougSeal said:

Mexicanpete said:

Fishing said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Less farcical and dishonest than Corbyn's former shadow cabinet member who campaigned for Jezza to be PM and then ran on a Corbynite manifesto to get elected pretending that he was a secret Blairite all the time. Whereas, of course, he's just a shabby, lying opportunist.

Along with pretty much everyone on here, I detest Starmer.

However anyone who undermines Corbyn gets an uptick from me, and compared to the sack of fighting rats that is the current UK Conservative Party (Sunak and Hunt excepted) Starmer in relative terms doesn't seem so bad.

Detest? Really? I thought there were a multitude of SKS fans on here? BJO told me.

General indifference, leavened by the odd hater and occasional fan was my impression.

Nigelb

squareroot2 said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Isn't it" mad as a box of frogs"?

No, they’re madder than that.
Sack of snakes and rats.

ydoethur

TheScreamingEagles said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Wow! That’s some post.

I’m hoping it is a piss take of the Tebbit test.

That's what I thought as well, but if so he's still an idiot for saying it.

That would be mildly better than a racist, but neither is ideal.

Mexicanpete

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Or rather, you have made up your mind and keep projecting it onto everyone you meet, including innocent folk on the bus.

No I listen. You should try it. Put metaphorical tape across your mouth and just listen. Really tune in and listen to ordinary people's conversations: on buses, trains, in shops, doctors' surgeries. Listen. Listen. Listen.

I also observe and post facts.

Latest opinion poll? 22% Labour lead. Sorry if that seems "dull" to you. I expect for many right-wingers this must seem awfully dull.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Good morning

I have just returned from a wonderful week in the Isle of Man and have interacted and listened to multiple conversations on the ships, in the hotel, in restaurants and coffee bars most everyone being English holidaymakers and not one person spoke about politics in any shape or form

I do not deny the conservatives are in serious trouble and Starmer is heading to no 10, but your suggestion that everyone is talking politics is not an experience I can concur with, but you do have a tendency to go a 'wee' but over the top

We are in Wales!

You've missed all the excitement on your holibobs. We have a new leader, Rhun ap Iorweth!

LostPassword

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Wow! That’s some post.

I'm really struggling to understand how someone could even think that. The racist mindset is so weird.

Mexicanpete

...

LostPassword said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Wow! That’s some post.

I'm really struggling to understand how someone could even think that. The racist mindset is so weird.

Particularly as he's married to someone whose descendants hail from the Indian Sub-Continent.

Nigelb

.

TheScreamingEagles said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Wow! That’s some post.

I’m hoping it is a piss take of the Tebbit test.

Crass, even if it was.

Stuartinromford

squareroot2 said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Isn't it" mad as a box of frogs"?

Snakes are seen as nastier than frogs.

Meanwhile, quick anecdote from my Saturday trot round the local shops.

The pile of unsold Daily Mails (now with added Boris on the front page) was awfully big.

ydoethur

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Or rather, you have made up your mind and keep projecting it onto everyone you meet, including innocent folk on the bus.

No I listen. You should try it. Put metaphorical tape across your mouth and just listen. Really tune in and listen to ordinary people's conversations: on buses, trains, in shops, doctors' surgeries. Listen. Listen. Listen.

I also observe and post facts.

Latest opinion poll? 22% Labour lead. Sorry if that seems "dull" to you. I expect for many right-wingers this must seem awfully dull.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Good morning

I have just returned from a wonderful week in the Isle of Man and have interacted and listened to multiple conversations on the ships, in the hotel, in restaurants and coffee bars most everyone being English holidaymakers and not one person spoke about politics in any shape or form

I do not deny the conservatives are in serious trouble and Starmer is heading to no 10, but your suggestion that everyone is talking politics is not an experience I can concur with, but you do have a tendency to go a 'wee' but over the top

We are in Wales!

You've missed all the excitement on your holibobs. We have a new leader, Rhun ap Iorweth!

Which also means he has withdrawn as Westminster candidate for Ynys Môn.

It was hard to see Plaid taking that seat even with him as candidate, but it's even harder now.

Roger

There was a man on Newsnight last night who was speaking for his friend whose wife had drowned in the boat tragedy off Greece. His story was a simple one. He had escaped from Syria four years ago where there is no work and no possible way of making a living and he was now living and studying in a university in Germany.

His wife hadn't been able to get a visa to join him so after several frustrating years had tried the illegal route and had paid $4000 for a crossing.

I can't remember hearing such a heartbreaking story from such a sympathetic character. All at once there was a story behind the ginning faces of Sunak and Braverman boasting about 'stopping the boats' and it made you feel disgusted

LostPassword

turbotubbs said:

state_go_away said:

turbotubbs said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Totally agree. If there was a better deal on offer, why didn’t they offer it at the start?

its a weird thing about trying to make as much money as you can - sort of in built into us . Especially prevalent on betting forums

Are they not making money at the price they have agreed with Gallowgate? I hate the current system. Where is the loyalty bonus for customers?

It's an example of the sort of weird inefficiencies that are created in capitalism because of the distorting effects of the profit motive.

Vast lifetimes of time are wasted by customers phoning up insurance companies for more reasonable renewal rates, because the extra money from people who don't phone is greater than the cost of paying for all the extra call centre staff required.

I'd hope that there was a regulatory way to fix this, without causing more damage through unintended consequences, and if someone [non-racist] in Starmer's team can think of a way to do so then it would be a good example of how Labour could reform Britain to reduce living costs and make people's lives better, without having to spend £billions.

Sean_F

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Anything is possible, but Labour recovered from winning the equivalent of 21%, in May 2009, to 30%, a year later, when economic circumstances were far worse than they are today, and when they were mired in scandal and division.

Many people who dislike the government of the day will decide they dislike the alternative more, come the GE.

MaxPB

TheScreamingEagles said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Wow! That’s some post.

I’m hoping it is a piss take of the Tebbit test.

It just screams of liberal "stay in your lane" patronising racism.

Foxy

StillWaters said:

Foxy said:

StillWaters said:

Foxy said:

The Tories are as mad as a bag of snakes. That much is obvious after the last week.

Pretending Johnson and Truss never happened, or never represented the real Tory party just won't wash.

Why do they represent the “real” Tory party rather than just being a minor key that temporarily gain dominance?

Simples. Both Johnson and Truss were elected by a majority of members (including my mother 🙄) while Sunak was not. Both have a better claim to representing the party than Sunak.

You’d also argue that Corbyn represents the “true” Labour Party then.

Neither are true statement

No as there has been a membership vote since, which Starmer won.

CorrectHorseBat

Scott_xP said:

NEW: @BloombergUK Saturday read

Gloom descended on Rishi Sunak’s Downing Street this week

Tories fear the Boris Johnson saga, rising interest rates and an increasingly likely 2024 recession have further closed their already very narrow path to victory

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1669978152062312448

Read this just now.

I thought recession was off the cards, what has brought it back again?

TheScreamingEagles

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Wow! That’s some post.

I’m hoping it is a piss take of the Tebbit test.

It just screams of liberal "stay in your lane" patronising racism.

It’s the kind of humour that you and I can get away with.

I’ll never forget the time somebody complained to OGH about my racism when I said I didn’t want to live next door to Muslim neighbours.

CorrectHorseBat

Nobody really detests Starmer, do they?

He's so dull and boring I find it hard to have any strong reaction to him at all.

Mexicanpete

Scott_xP said:

NEW: @BloombergUK Saturday read

Gloom descended on Rishi Sunak’s Downing Street this week

Tories fear the Boris Johnson saga, rising interest rates and an increasingly likely 2024 recession have further closed their already very narrow path to victory

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1669978152062312448

After the stench of Johnson has been purged the only way is up.

I agree with OGH. Rishi has played his foes (Johnson and Starmer) like a ten bob violin this week. From a standing start he's getting really good at this politics malarkey.

Big_G_NorthWales

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Or rather, you have made up your mind and keep projecting it onto everyone you meet, including innocent folk on the bus.

No I listen. You should try it. Put metaphorical tape across your mouth and just listen. Really tune in and listen to ordinary people's conversations: on buses, trains, in shops, doctors' surgeries. Listen. Listen. Listen.

I also observe and post facts.

Latest opinion poll? 22% Labour lead. Sorry if that seems "dull" to you. I expect for many right-wingers this must seem awfully dull.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Good morning

I have just returned from a wonderful week in the Isle of Man and have interacted and listened to multiple conversations on the ships, in the hotel, in restaurants and coffee bars most everyone being English holidaymakers and not one person spoke about politics in any shape or form

I do not deny the conservatives are in serious trouble and Starmer is heading to no 10, but your suggestion that everyone is talking politics is not an experience I can concur with, but you do have a tendency to go a 'wee' but over the top

We are in Wales!

You've missed all the excitement on your holibobs. We have a new leader, Rhun ap Iorweth!

I didn't have great Internet access but I did read that on the ship home yesterday and my reaction was 'who'

Foxy

Ghedebrav said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Just did a fairly terrifying audit of our household outgoings. I need to start doing what you’ve done.

Yes, I halved my broadband bill and got a speed upgrade yesterday. These autorenewals just take the Mickley.

Mexicanpete

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Mexicanpete said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Heathener said:

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Or rather, you have made up your mind and keep projecting it onto everyone you meet, including innocent folk on the bus.

No I listen. You should try it. Put metaphorical tape across your mouth and just listen. Really tune in and listen to ordinary people's conversations: on buses, trains, in shops, doctors' surgeries. Listen. Listen. Listen.

I also observe and post facts.

Latest opinion poll? 22% Labour lead. Sorry if that seems "dull" to you. I expect for many right-wingers this must seem awfully dull.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election

Good morning

I have just returned from a wonderful week in the Isle of Man and have interacted and listened to multiple conversations on the ships, in the hotel, in restaurants and coffee bars most everyone being English holidaymakers and not one person spoke about politics in any shape or form

I do not deny the conservatives are in serious trouble and Starmer is heading to no 10, but your suggestion that everyone is talking politics is not an experience I can concur with, but you do have a tendency to go a 'wee' but over the top

We are in Wales!

You've missed all the excitement on your holibobs. We have a new leader, Rhun ap Iorweth!

I didn't have great Internet access but I did read that on the ship home yesterday and my reaction was 'who'

He was always reporting on Newyddion on S4C. I think he was a BBC Westminster Correspondent too.

dixiedean

Sean_F said:

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Anything is possible, but Labour recovered from winning the equivalent of 21%, in May 2009, to 30%, a year later, when economic circumstances were far worse than they are today, and when they were mired in scandal and division.

Many people who dislike the government of the day will decide they dislike the alternative more, come the GE.

Still lost though.

Sandpit

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Wow! That’s some post.

I’m hoping it is a piss take of the Tebbit test.

It just screams of liberal "stay in your lane" patronising racism.

The election campaign might be fun, if Labour have simply replaced one lot of racists with another, more deeply personal towards the PM, lot of racists.

SandyRentool

turbotubbs said:

bondegezou said:

turbotubbs said:

Gallowgate said:

Just knocked £70 (nearly 20%) off my car insurance renewal by threatening to leave, the thieving bastards.

Totally agree. If there was a better deal on offer, why didn’t they offer it at the start?

Because they’d rather have £70?

Well yes, but that indicates the model is broken. Customers should not need to threaten to leave or actually leave to get the best deal.

The same is often the case for employees seeking a pay rise or a promotion.

dixiedean

CorrectHorseBat said:

Scott_xP said:

NEW: @BloombergUK Saturday read

Gloom descended on Rishi Sunak’s Downing Street this week

Tories fear the Boris Johnson saga, rising interest rates and an increasingly likely 2024 recession have further closed their already very narrow path to victory

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1669978152062312448

Read this just now.

I thought recession was off the cards, what has brought it back again?

Reality?

Sean_F

dixiedean said:

Sean_F said:

Heathener said:

Monksfield said:

Historically the right wing vote always returns to the mother ship at GE. If that happens the Tories will get back to 35%.

This isn't true.

In 1997 the tory vote was 30.7% and the situation since 2019 has been a whole heap worse than the run up to '97.

In 2001 they picked up to 31.7%, in 2005 31.6%

For a decade the 'right wing vote' did not 'return to the mother ship' at a 35% level.

The tory brand has been Ratnered far worse than Black Wednesday.

And just wait until these mortgage rate increases start to bite through 23/4.

There is a very real likelihood that they will poll sub 30% at the next General Election. The die is cast. People have made up their minds.

Anything is possible, but Labour recovered from winning the equivalent of 21%, in May 2009, to 30%, a year later, when economic circumstances were far worse than they are today, and when they were mired in scandal and division.

Many people who dislike the government of the day will decide they dislike the alternative more, come the GE.

Still lost though.

And, I expect the Conservatives will lose as well.

Mexicanpete

Quietly, stealthily and under the radar of the BBC and the Tory Client press, Gilt yields are at Trussian levels. But don't tell anyone.

CorrectHorseBat said:

Scott_xP said:

NEW: @BloombergUK Saturday read

Gloom descended on Rishi Sunak’s Downing Street this week

Tories fear the Boris Johnson saga, rising interest rates and an increasingly likely 2024 recession have further closed their already very narrow path to victory

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1669978152062312448

Read this just now.

I thought recession was off the cards, what has brought it back again?

CorrectHorseBat

Luckily for Rishi, my fixed rate will be coming to an end after the next election, so it will be Keir Starmer I blame.

Sandpit

Roger said:

There was a man on Newsnight last night who was speaking for his friend whose wife had drowned in the boat tragedy off Greece. His story was a simple one. He had escaped from Syria four years ago where there is no work and no possible way of making a living and he was now living and studying in a university in Germany.

His wife hadn't been able to get a visa to join him so after several frustrating years had tried the illegal route and had paid $4000 for a crossing.

I can't remember hearing such a heartbreaking story from such a sympathetic character. All at once there was a story behind the ginning faces of Sunak and Braverman boasting about 'stopping the boats' and it made you feel disgusted

So economic migrants trying to jump the queue for legal immigration, rather than people fleeing state-sponsored persecution?

Stuartinromford

CorrectHorseBat said:

Nobody really detests Starmer, do they?

He's so dull and boring I find it hard to have any strong reaction to him at all.

The hard left hate Starmer, because of what he did to St Jeremy.

The tabloid right hate him because of whe he did to tabloids.

Johnson hates him because he kept asking the right questions.

From one perspective, Starmer is annoying all the right people.

But yes, the general public view seems to be "oh well, he'll have to do".

Big_G_NorthWales

Roger said:

There was a man on Newsnight last night who was speaking for his friend whose wife had drowned in the boat tragedy off Greece. His story was a simple one. He had escaped from Syria four years ago where there is no work and no possible way of making a living and he was now living and studying in a university in Germany.

His wife hadn't been able to get a visa to join him so after several frustrating years had tried the illegal route and had paid $4000 for a crossing.

I can't remember hearing such a heartbreaking story from such a sympathetic character. All at once there was a story behind the ginning faces of Sunak and Braverman boasting about 'stopping the boats' and it made you feel disgusted

It is a tragedy beyond compare that 500 or more immigrants died unwanted at sea as Greece, Italy and the EU prevaricate and blame each other

As in all these cases, everyone should be supporting measures to prevent these boats from sailing but again it is politicised and as a consequence many more avoidable deaths are inevitable not just in the channel but the Mediterranean as the EU members close their borders and turn a blind eye

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

turbotubbs said:

MaxPB said:

Starmer needs to sack Collins for being a racist piece of shit.

Is that a real post?

Deleted, but yes it was.

Wow! That’s some post.

I’m hoping it is a piss take of the Tebbit test.

He seems to genuinely believe that passing the Tebbit test is a badge of shame.